For the past 25-plus years Armenians have been enthusiastically experimenting with foreign concepts and foreign notions that are foreign not only to the geographic locality of Armenia but foreign also to Armenian culture and genetic kind. Consequently, for 25-plus years Armenia has suffered sustained cultural degradation and periodic sociopolitical turmoil. Armenians, nevertheless, are valiantly pushing forward in a relentless effort to live up to foreign standards and expectations - be it political, cultural or economic - imposed by imperial officials in faraway lands. Ultimately, this is the fundamental problem at hand. This conversation therefore is not about Russia, United States, Europe, Azerbaijan or Turkey per se. This conversation is not even about corruption, crime, oligarchs, political parties or even politicians like Serj Sargsyan and Nikol Pashinyan. This conversation is ultimately about Westernization and Globalization, and Armenia's political culture and mindset.
This conversation is therefore about the civilizational problem of our times. This conversation is essentially about the kind of seeds we are eagerly sowing in Armenia today in an attempt to live up to foreign standards. I therefore suggest we don't lose sight of this aspect of the following story despite how much we Armenians hated Armenia's now deposed Chobans in Armani suites.
In final analysis, those that want to eradicate national cultures and state borders, or simply put it all under Anglo-American-Jewish control, have more-or-less convinced humanity, including us ever-gullible Armenians, that the state exists solely for the people. While that is true to a certain degree, in my opinion, however, it is more important for a people to unconditionally feel the need to exist for the state. Those that want to eradicate national cultures and state borders, or simply put it all under one global management, have also been pushing the toxic concepts of democracy (e.g. free and fair elections, independent press, people power, empowering of ethic and sexual minorities, etc.), liberalism (e.g. feminism, multiculturalism, interracialism, atheism, normalization of sexual perversions, recreational drug use, etc.), financial dependency (e.g. dependency on credits and loans from Western financial institutions like the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, World Bank and the IMF) and open borders (i.e. "free trade" and unhindered movement of populations across national borders). The aforementioned, which are actively promoted by Western and Globalist or Supranational interests around the world today, are tools of social engineering and control, and they are inherently toxic to all nations on earth, especially so to Armenia.
Such concepts are deliberately pushed onto developing nations or nations not already part of their political, financial and/or economic orbit to either subjugate them or destroy them.
Armenian traits (i.e. those that help us succeed in foreign lands but not in our homeland) and the sociopolitical climate currently prevailing in Armenia (i.e. that which for the most part was crafted by Western/Globalist interests) are being exploited by aforementioned foreign interests to captivate the Armenian spirit and psyche. It has worked for the most part. For 25-plus years, Armenians have been tearing themselves apart trying to meet foreign expectations. For 25-plus years, foreign forces operating inside Armenian society have been effectively exploiting Armenia's natural growing pains in a concerted effort to undermine Armenian statehood. This all has contributed to the country's cultural decline. Armenia is no longer producing high culture, it is merely regurgitating Western and Turkic pop culture. As I always say, Soviet Armenia gave us Aram Khachaturyan, independent Armenia gave us Aram Assatryan. Armenia is not alone in its cultural decline. We see cultural decline even in Europe and North America, both of which are the sources of the problem I speak of. European and Western countries today are resting on their laurels. In other words, they are living off their long past imperial glory. But their civilization is in a steep decline today because of Globalism and Liberalism. As such, Western nations themselves are slowly falling victim to the very poisons they have been eagerly administering around the world for decades. However, Armenia's case may prove worst because of Armenia's geographic location.
But, just as a troubled child will be a troubled child, Armenians be Armenians. Armenians will happily experiment with toxic concoctions for it is in the nature of the ever-restless and ever-gullible Armenian to do so. I keep reminding Armenians that Armenia is located in the south Caucasus, not in Scandinavia. I keep reminding Armenians that Armenia's neighbors are not Swedes, Norwegians, Icelanders, Fins or Danes, but Turks, Azeris, Georgians, Kurds, Iranians and fanatical Islamists. To survive in its very dangerous neighborhood, Armenia today needs close relations with Russia, internal stability, political foresight, a powerful military and a very strong national/ethic identity.
While we as a people are tearing ourselves apart relentlessly striving for "Democracy" and "civil society", Armenia's regional enemies, oblivious to the aforementioned Western fairytales, are simply multiplying in numbers. I suspect it has always been like this. On a fundamental level, the political unrest we see in Armenia every few years is the reason why there is the nation of Turkey in Asia Minor today. Our people's undying urge to live like the Romans has essentially been our people's Achilles heel for past two thousand years, and what has keep Armenia small, weak and endangered. What we saw in the streets of Yerevan last April, while the streets of Ankara and Baku remained peaceful, is fundamentally the reason why I say we Armenians don't have what it takes to become a large and powerful nation. Our Turkic/Muslim neighbors for the most part accept their fate, good or bad, as God's will. And needless to say, they better appreciate their statehood. We Armenians are constantly fighting our fate. We won't be satisfied even if Christ himself ruled over us. And we as a people think we are above the state.
It was almost exactly two hundred years ago when Russians arrived on the scene and helped the region's widely dispersed Armenian peasantry gather in their ancestral lands in the south Caucasus. This historic turning point in Armenian historiography proved to be the spark that eventually gave birth to a resurrected Armenia. Now, left on our own again, we may be doing the reverse. We as a people may be sowing the seed of Armenia's eventual demise. This should not surprise anyone. Armenians have time-and-again proven to be a restless and troublesome people. Just within the past two hundred years, we saw Armenians enthusiastically embrace Czarist Russia against Persia. But when that honeymoon ended, we saw Armenians enthusiastically embracing Communist Russia against Czarist Russia. When the honeymoon with Communist Russia ended, we saw Armenians enthusiastically embracing Western powers against Communist Russia. This cycle is continuing as I write this. Historically, Armenia's greatest problem has been the Armenian. I have been pointing this out for quite a few years now -
The problem with Armenia is not its government, it's the people (2016): https://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-problem-with-armenia-is-not-its.html
Demonstrations in Armenia are NOT politically motivated, there is NO Maidan in Yerevan (2015): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2015/06/mass-demonstrations-in-yerevan-are-not.html
Yerevan cannot allow its Western activists to politicize the Gyumri tragedy (2015): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2015/01/yerevan-cannot-allow-its-western.html
Moscow Warning Armenia Over European Integration Drive (2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/07/moscow-warning-armenia-over-european.html
Why Armenians want out of Armenia (2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.am/2013/04/the-need-for-cyber-activism-and-why.html
Armenia on the eve of its presidential elections (2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/02/armenia-on-eve-of-its-presidential.html
Raffilution begins!!! Raffi Hovannisian's turn to lead Armenia's self-destructive peasantry (2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/02/raffilution-begins-raffi-hovannisians.html
The Whore of Babylon in Yerevan (2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/06/whore-of-babylon-in-yerevan-june-2012.html
Collective destructionism of Armenians (2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.am/2012/08/collective-destructionism-and-armenias.html
The revolution has begun? Armenians again reveling in self-destructive behavior (2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-revolution-has-begun-armenians.html
Panel Discussions Calling for Chaos in Armenia (2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.am/2012/01/washington-sponsored-panel-discussions.html
Marie Yovanovitch, Raffi Hovannisian and Regime Change in Armenia - (2011): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/03/marie-yovanovitch-and-raffi-hovannisian.html
As
many parts of the world, including those in the Western world, begin
moving away
from toxic concepts like Liberal Democracy, Open Borders and Free Trade,
because of their inherent toxicity and destructiveness, it seems that Armenians are instead blindly rushing towards it. In my opinion, it's a sign of
collective insanity.
You can't change the mind of a suicidal manic determined to kill himself. You can however somehow restrain him in order to stop him from killing himself. But for how long can you keep doing that? The maniac is bound to eventually free himself. And soon as he does, he will once again attempt to kill himself. Sometimes I feel that the only way to stop Armenians from committing collective suicide is to restrain Armenians. violently if need be. But I fully understand that restraint is a temporary reprieve and not a long-term cure. But, I have yet to see a cure for the illness Armenians have. I would naturally want to see an Armenia that is prosperous, powerful and independent. But that now feels more-and-more like a fantasy. I sometimes feel that we Armenians don't deserve anything more than what Chechens, Ossetians or Abkhazians currently have. What the aforementioned have today may in fact be the safest choice for a people like us Armenians.
Simply put: Armenians crave independence but Armenians can't sustain independence. This
is a historical dilemma that has afflicted Armenians literally for
hundreds of years. And there seems to be no end in sight. In final analysis, if we Armenians are shortsighted
and self-destructive enough to embrace Liberalism, Westernization and
Globalism, it's our "democratic" right to do so. If we Armenians
collectively want to import toxins that will eventually eventually kill
our homeland, then who am I to say what we are doing as a people is
wrong? I can only
standby and watch in disgust,
and simply pray that the country averts yet another serious catastrophe. At
the end of the day, as long as Armenia is kept securely inside the Russian
orbit (voluntarily or by force), I don't
care anymore what Armenians do with themselves inside Armenia. In a sense, I give up.
Due to the convoluted and murky nature of politics in Armenia, and the depressing realization that we as a people continue suffering from severe and debilitating levels of political illiteracy and self-destructiveness, I had a very difficult time gathering my thoughts for this blog commentary in order to express them in a comprehensive/cohesive manner. I somehow managed to do it. But I ended up sowing into the story a lot of speculation and conjecture, and even "conspiracy theories"; a lot more than I would normally like. This is because there was a lot more to recent events in Armenia than what we were seeing in the streets or in the press coverage. We still don't know how and why things happened the way they happened this spring. There is no doubt in my mind that political forces outside of our field of view and beyond our depth of perception were very active in what took place. I believe Armenia was subjected to an agenda, most probably an international or supranational one involving a number of regional players; and the so-called Armenian Street took it "hook, line and sinker" as they say in American fishing parlance. Although I would like to be proven wrong on all accounts eventually, I believe the agenda in question will one day prove detrimental to Armenia and/or Artsakh.
As the reader can sense, the only way I know how to write this story is through warnings and speculations. In other words, negativity so many of my readers dread. If such things are not what you are looking for, or if your understanding of Armenian politics falls more-or-less along the lines of "Serj bad, Nikol good", then none of what I have to say here is for you. So, please leave now. Virtually all discussion boards and social networking sites are absolutely ecstatic and orgasmic about recent events in Armenia. If you are looking for conventional fluff and feel good rhetoric, or a place to vent your primitive hate towards "Serzhik" or the "Karabakh Clan", this blog is not one of them. In my opinion, what has been transpiring in Yerevan is very convoluted and to a large degree worrying. The complexity of the issue at hand in Armenia is multi-layered and interwoven. I believe the country is headed towards a difficult period of trials. I believe that we as a people have also set some very bad sociopolitical precedents for our homeland. And all this thanks to "Democracy" and our politically illiterate and troublesome people (which naturally includes our public officials), who don't like responsibilities, laws or hard work, but yearns for good living, designer clothing, American cigarettes and German cars.
I sincerely hope that I am eventually proven wrong on all accounts. I hope to be to ridiculed and chastised for my misdiagnosis, bad analysis and general negativity. After all, what is most important for me is the health and well being of the Armenian state, not my feelings or my ego. Until then, however, I am going to speak my mind. The following blog commentary is basically a loosely organized compilation of my thoughts about recent events in Armenia. They essentially tell the story of Armenia's 25-plus year old problem child called Democracy. The story has two fundamental parts. One, it's the story of the Armenian people (which naturally includes its leadership both previous and current) and their political illiteracy and self-destructive behavior. Two, it's the story of behind-the-scenes dealings, conspiracies and political machinations, both foreign and domestic; with Armenia and Artsakh being their test laboratory.
Armenia finally suffered its first revolution
On the morning of April 23, 2018, I woke up to learn that Nikol Pashinyan, one of Levon Petrosyan's former street activists and a longtime Western grant recipient, had succeeded in ousting the newly appointed Prime Minister Serj Sargsyan after several weeks of sustained mass protests in Armenia. It was the Armenian Republic's first successful revolution or rather regime change, and it was bloodless. On the morning of April 23, 2018, I therefore woke up to realize that I had finally become what I long loathed, a political opposition. So be it.
Due to the convoluted and murky nature of politics in Armenia, and the depressing realization that we as a people continue suffering from severe and debilitating levels of political illiteracy and self-destructiveness, I had a very difficult time gathering my thoughts for this blog commentary in order to express them in a comprehensive/cohesive manner. I somehow managed to do it. But I ended up sowing into the story a lot of speculation and conjecture, and even "conspiracy theories"; a lot more than I would normally like. This is because there was a lot more to recent events in Armenia than what we were seeing in the streets or in the press coverage. We still don't know how and why things happened the way they happened this spring. There is no doubt in my mind that political forces outside of our field of view and beyond our depth of perception were very active in what took place. I believe Armenia was subjected to an agenda, most probably an international or supranational one involving a number of regional players; and the so-called Armenian Street took it "hook, line and sinker" as they say in American fishing parlance. Although I would like to be proven wrong on all accounts eventually, I believe the agenda in question will one day prove detrimental to Armenia and/or Artsakh.
As the reader can sense, the only way I know how to write this story is through warnings and speculations. In other words, negativity so many of my readers dread. If such things are not what you are looking for, or if your understanding of Armenian politics falls more-or-less along the lines of "Serj bad, Nikol good", then none of what I have to say here is for you. So, please leave now. Virtually all discussion boards and social networking sites are absolutely ecstatic and orgasmic about recent events in Armenia. If you are looking for conventional fluff and feel good rhetoric, or a place to vent your primitive hate towards "Serzhik" or the "Karabakh Clan", this blog is not one of them. In my opinion, what has been transpiring in Yerevan is very convoluted and to a large degree worrying. The complexity of the issue at hand in Armenia is multi-layered and interwoven. I believe the country is headed towards a difficult period of trials. I believe that we as a people have also set some very bad sociopolitical precedents for our homeland. And all this thanks to "Democracy" and our politically illiterate and troublesome people (which naturally includes our public officials), who don't like responsibilities, laws or hard work, but yearns for good living, designer clothing, American cigarettes and German cars.
I sincerely hope that I am eventually proven wrong on all accounts. I hope to be to ridiculed and chastised for my misdiagnosis, bad analysis and general negativity. After all, what is most important for me is the health and well being of the Armenian state, not my feelings or my ego. Until then, however, I am going to speak my mind. The following blog commentary is basically a loosely organized compilation of my thoughts about recent events in Armenia. They essentially tell the story of Armenia's 25-plus year old problem child called Democracy. The story has two fundamental parts. One, it's the story of the Armenian people (which naturally includes its leadership both previous and current) and their political illiteracy and self-destructive behavior. Two, it's the story of behind-the-scenes dealings, conspiracies and political machinations, both foreign and domestic; with Armenia and Artsakh being their test laboratory.
Armenia finally suffered its first revolution
On the morning of April 23, 2018, I woke up to learn that Nikol Pashinyan, one of Levon Petrosyan's former street activists and a longtime Western grant recipient, had succeeded in ousting the newly appointed Prime Minister Serj Sargsyan after several weeks of sustained mass protests in Armenia. It was the Armenian Republic's first successful revolution or rather regime change, and it was bloodless. On the morning of April 23, 2018, I therefore woke up to realize that I had finally become what I long loathed, a political opposition. So be it.
Political
unrest in Armenia had
basically begun soon after Serj Sargsyan, the country's very unpopular
president used the country's shift to a parliamentary
system (where the country's prime minister yields most of the political
power) to maneuver himself into the country's newly established
premiership. As soon as
his presidential term expired, Serj Sargsyan was quickly voted as the
country's prime minister by the newly reconfigured parliament. Although
legal, it nevertheless was an audacious and inexplicable attempt to maintain power in a country where the people absolutely hated its leadership. Although
in-line with the nation's constitution, what Serj Sargsyan had therefore done was utterly foolish and provocatory. The
Armenian public was understandably incensed. Serious political unrest was
therefore inevitable.
Serj Sargsyan, immersed in politics for the past 25-plus years, must have know this. He had proven himself to be a very shrewd and intelligent politician throughout his career. If maintaining his power and influence was what he was after, he must have known that he did not need to hold on to the political throne. As the former president and head of the country's top political party in Armenia, Serj must have known that he could maintain a lot of power and influence from behind-the-scenes. In fact, had Serj stepped down from power quietly and voluntarily, and allowed someone like Karen Karapetyan to takeover the country's leadership as it was expected, he may have even enjoyed a surge in popularity in the country.
Let's also consider the obvious fact that Serj is not a young man. I am sure he and his family would rather enjoy the wealth they have accumulated throughout the years without all this political headache, which is also fraught with many dangers. So, why do it? Why risk everything, essentially for nothing? These questions, as well as strange circumstances leading up to his resignation, leads me to believe that there had to be another political calculus behind Serj's decision to ascend to the nation's premiership. Future events may reveal why he did what he did and why things transpired the way they did. In the meanwhile, we can only speculate.
For his part, Nikol Pashinyan, who had essentially prepared a lifetime for such an opportunity, began an earnest campaign through his political coalition to rally public support in an attempt to oust the newly elected and deeply unpopular prime minister. It should be added that Nikol's "Civil Contract Party" was practically the only real political opposition in the country because all the others in Armenia's political landscape were either known to be working with the government, discredited, disliked by the people or jailed. Nikol and friends therefore were in a clear position to succeed. And they did. Because Serj Sargsyan was universally hated, the Armenian Street was more than happy rally behind Nikol. Curiously, no serious effort was made by Serj Sargsyan's administration or the nation's security services to stop Nikol or quell the growing protests. Then, on the weekend of April 20, after a number of inexplicable missteps by the ruling administration, coupled with Moscow's curious indifference, Serj Sargsyan ominously tipped the balance of power in Nikol's favor. The rest, as they say, is history.
As such, after so many failed attempts, Armenia finally succumbed to a regime change. No, it was not a Maidan. It was not even a conventional Color Revolution in that it did not have anti-Russian elements to it, on the surface at least. It was however a revolution nonetheless. What Levon, Raffi and the so-called "Sasna Dzrer" and "Founding Parliament" failed to do in ten-plus years, Nikol and friends got done in a few weeks. Consequently, the mass hysteria that preceded Serj Sargsyan's resignation, instantaneously transformed into mass euphoria as soon as the news of his resignation was made public. April was a month of high drama in Armenia -
Of course served with a dose of Armenian style surrealism -
Knowing Armenians and knowing how bad Armenia was being managed by Serj Sargsyan's government, it was bound to happen eventually. A
part of me was happy because there was no bloodshed or widespread
destruction. Seeing how universally hated and despised he was, and as we
now know abandoned by Moscow, Serj Sargsyan perhaps had the wisdom to
step down without a struggle. A part of me was also happy that Armenia's
wealthy/powerful Chobans were beginning to lose control over the country. But, a larger part of me is now seriously concerned about the very future of the country. Why? Because what happened looks and feels like a well planned international conspiracy to topple the old guard and bring in a new team. I should also add that the character of Nikol and his associates are also sources of my deep concern. Why? Simply because they are mostly foreign funded mercenaries and social engineers. Some of them are/were financed by Globalist interests, some of them are/were financed by Anglo-American interests. By all accounts, Nikol's opposition newspaper Հայկական Ժամանակ was at least in part funded by Washington.
Serj Sargsyan, immersed in politics for the past 25-plus years, must have know this. He had proven himself to be a very shrewd and intelligent politician throughout his career. If maintaining his power and influence was what he was after, he must have known that he did not need to hold on to the political throne. As the former president and head of the country's top political party in Armenia, Serj must have known that he could maintain a lot of power and influence from behind-the-scenes. In fact, had Serj stepped down from power quietly and voluntarily, and allowed someone like Karen Karapetyan to takeover the country's leadership as it was expected, he may have even enjoyed a surge in popularity in the country.
Let's also consider the obvious fact that Serj is not a young man. I am sure he and his family would rather enjoy the wealth they have accumulated throughout the years without all this political headache, which is also fraught with many dangers. So, why do it? Why risk everything, essentially for nothing? These questions, as well as strange circumstances leading up to his resignation, leads me to believe that there had to be another political calculus behind Serj's decision to ascend to the nation's premiership. Future events may reveal why he did what he did and why things transpired the way they did. In the meanwhile, we can only speculate.
For his part, Nikol Pashinyan, who had essentially prepared a lifetime for such an opportunity, began an earnest campaign through his political coalition to rally public support in an attempt to oust the newly elected and deeply unpopular prime minister. It should be added that Nikol's "Civil Contract Party" was practically the only real political opposition in the country because all the others in Armenia's political landscape were either known to be working with the government, discredited, disliked by the people or jailed. Nikol and friends therefore were in a clear position to succeed. And they did. Because Serj Sargsyan was universally hated, the Armenian Street was more than happy rally behind Nikol. Curiously, no serious effort was made by Serj Sargsyan's administration or the nation's security services to stop Nikol or quell the growing protests. Then, on the weekend of April 20, after a number of inexplicable missteps by the ruling administration, coupled with Moscow's curious indifference, Serj Sargsyan ominously tipped the balance of power in Nikol's favor. The rest, as they say, is history.
As such, after so many failed attempts, Armenia finally succumbed to a regime change. No, it was not a Maidan. It was not even a conventional Color Revolution in that it did not have anti-Russian elements to it, on the surface at least. It was however a revolution nonetheless. What Levon, Raffi and the so-called "Sasna Dzrer" and "Founding Parliament" failed to do in ten-plus years, Nikol and friends got done in a few weeks. Consequently, the mass hysteria that preceded Serj Sargsyan's resignation, instantaneously transformed into mass euphoria as soon as the news of his resignation was made public. April was a month of high drama in Armenia -
Серж Саргсян напугал новым 1 марта, занервничал и резко ушел с переговоров с Николом Пашиняном. ПРЯМОЙ ЭФИР: https://armenia.im/4/1770154378158013.html
Հրապարակը՝ Նիկոլ Փաշինյանի ու Սերժ Սարգսյանի հանդիպումից հետո: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv2ZRq6gi2A
Thousands Celebrate As Armenia's Longtime Ruler Sarkisian Steps Down: https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-fresh-protests-sarkisian-yerevan-pashinian/29186416.html
Ծերունին մնաց ոստիկանական փշալարերի մեջ: http://www.a1plus.am/1610310.html
There was a deliberate effort by unseen forces to bring Nikol into power
I am a firm believer that nothing major that happens in a nation's political life -
be it high level assassinations, major terrorist attacks, wars, financial collapse,
regime change, revolutions, etc. - happens by chance. I am a firm believer that there are almost always forces behind-the-scenes pulling strings and guiding events in a nation's political life. Recent events in Armenia is no different. There was either an invisible earthly hand behind all this, or what happened was as result of divine providence. Let's put aside divine intervention for the sake of this blog and let us instead concentrate our attention only on the earthly factors behind what happened. Looking in hindsight at what transpired in Armenia this spring, it is now more than obvious that somebody, somewhere was making things very easy for Nikol Pashinyan throughout the political ordeal. It is even beginning to look as if Nikol Pashinyan's antagonist, Serj Sargsyan himself, was involved (perhaps reluctantly) in the conspiracy to bring Nikol into power.
At the start of the political season in Armenia this spring, Nikol was a nobody in real political terms. He was however practically the only real political opposition standing in the country. As noted above, all other opposition forces were either discredited, jailed or thought to be controlled opposition. This was perhaps a deliberate effort to prepare the country's political landscape for Nikol and his cohorts.
In
any case, Nikol's popularity, as well as his "revolutionary" persona,
was slowly constructed and his path was meticulously cleared. It
was obvious from the very beginning that law enforcement authorities were not taking
any meaningful measures to stop Nikol or quell the growing number of
demonstrators. There was not one serious effort by the authorities to
derail his forward momentum. Whatever they did do in this regard, merely made the situation worst for them. Doors were opening for him and he was clearly being propelled
forward. The last few days leading up to Prime Minister Serj Sargsyan's historic resignation seemed quite suspicious. All
in all, for reasons that will most probably remain unknown
to us, it was Serj himself that created a very volatile situation, a
situation where he, as the nation's leader for the last ten years, must
have known he would not be able
to hold onto power.
As such, a series of circumstances, either deliberately orchestrated or
a result of providence, elevated Nikol to the political limelight and
pushed him forward. And the Armenian Street (full of emotions, hate,
anger, jealousy, stubbornness, arrogance, gossip, vindictiveness,
hysteria and political ignorance, and incited by Western-funded
activists), well, for the lack of a better expression, took to Nikol like flies to a pile of fresh excrement.
The more I look at the now historic but highly suspicious public meeting between Serj and Nikol, and Serj's abrupt resignation merely two days later, uttering the strange words "Nikol Pashinyan was right. I got it wrong", the more I think that the high drama we witnessed in
Yerevan those days was indeed being orchestrated by forces from above. I believe Serj Sargsyan was in on the plan to relinquish power to Nikol. Perhaps he did so reluctantly. Perhaps he was forced to do so at some point. In any case, I do not believe Nikol or his supporters were directly responsible
for Serj Sargsyan's downfall. What
happened therefore may not have been a revolution after
all. In any case, at this point in time, all we can do is speculate.
Was
Serj Sargsyan so stupid or blinded by power and wealthy that he did not
see the political storm brewing right outside his doorstep? I don't think so. I don't think Nikol's rise in politics was a
result of chance or miscalculation or error on the part of Armenian
authorities. I believe there was much more to the story than what we
were seeing on the streets of Armenia during those days. More particularly, as noted above, events that occurred between April 20 and 23, occurred under
very strange circumstances. It all looked and felt contrived and deliberate. It looked as if Serj Sargsyan
was trying to deliberately sabotage his political standing.
Serj
Sargsyan may be a lot of things, but dumb or blind is definitely not
among them. He had come to totally dominate the political landscape in
Armenia during his ten year tenure as the country's president. He
was by all accounts a brilliant political tactician. He had all the
wealthy/powerful Chobans behind him. All mainstream politicians and
political parties were known to be cooperating with him and his
political party. We also know that a foreign hand or hands (perhaps
Russian, perhaps Western, perhaps Supranational)
were always present, at least in spirit, in the presidential h0use in
Yerevan. There were some signs that even the "Sasna Dzrer" operation in
the summer of 2016 may have been orchestrated at least in part by
Armenian authorities or some body above it. Why else would the murderous
militants who were under constant state surveillance be able to do what they did, and
on top of that be given free access to the outside world in order to spew their
extremist nonsense throughout the ordeal, even while in prison?
Similarly, there were signs during the mass demonstrations that took
place in the summer of 2015 that even Nikol himself was cooperating or
collaborating with the ruling administration.
The reader may recall that
at the time, some of the Western-funded political opposition in Armenia
was publicly blaming Nikol for helping the authorities quell the
demonstrations by sowing ideological/political divisions within it. Nikol
was roundly accused at the time of being a fake political opposition.
And there was talk that Nikol would become Mayor of Yerevan.
What
I am trying to convey to the reader here is that Serj Sargsyan had
expertly maneuvered and navigated himself through Armenia's very murky
and often dangerous political landscape for the past twenty-plus years.
There was no real political opposition to his rule. Nikol was a nobody
in political terms. The country's security services had a tight grip
over the country. Moreover,
Serj Sargsyan's government could have easily stopped the movement
building against them at any point leading up to the now famous and very
strange meeting between Serj and Nikol on April 20th. Moreover,
let's recognize that even if Serj Sargsyan had retire from politics,
which he should have, it was obvious to all that he would still yield
great political influence in the country. Yet, for some inexplicable
reason he decided to remain in power, knowing full well that it would
cause serious political unrest.
Simply
put: Serj Sargsyan did what he knew he should not have done (i.e.
attempted to retain power) and did not do what he knew he should have
done (i.e. stopped the movement against him early on). He had either gone mad or he was following some political agenda. I do not believe he had gone mad. I
am convinced that Serj Sargsyan's toxic decision to become
the country's prime minister had little if anything to do with greed or
megalomania or any other personal factor. I am convinced there was a sound political calculus behind the decision to remain in power. I believe that the bloodless coup Armenia experienced this spring was preordained and orchestrated by political forces beyond our depth of perception. I
believe Armenia became a victim of a major political conspiracy. I also believe
that Serj Sargsyan, perhaps Nikol as well, are in on the conspiracy in
varying capacities and degrees. Somebody, for reasons that will most probably remain unknown, wanted to change the old guard in the country. And this bring me to the former prime minister, Karen Karapetyan.
Many political observers were
almost certain Karen Karapetyan, a highly respected former Gazprom official and a man
known to have intimate ties within the Kremlin, was slated to become the next political leader of Armenia. That is why he was thought to have been brought back into
Armenia's political landscape in late 2016, in the aftermath of the April war and the "Sasna Dzrer" incident. What's more, Serj Sargsyan was thought to be paving the way for him. Something however must have happened along the way. It
is now beginning to look as if either Karen Karapetyan coming to power
in Armenia did not sit well with powerful political interests at play in
Yerevan, or simply that the political calculus in the country had changed and he was no longer in play. Perhaps Karen was there for some other reason all-together. We don't know at this point. But some are left to wonder if there was a problem between Serj and Karen and that if it was somehow related to the country's wealthy/powerful Chobans, who may have rightly feared the rise of a popular Kremlin-backed bureaucrat. It's a possibility. However, I do not believe this was the case. As noted above, had Serj Sargsyan stepped down from power and allowed Karen Karapetyan to take control, he could still assert considerable degree of influence over politics in the country in order to protect his assets, both human and material. What's more, someone like Karen Karapetyan is not the type that would be interested in causing internal unrest by going after the powerful Chobans. After all, if the intent was to cause internal political unrest in the country, Nikol an company are the perfect candidates. In any case, whatever the reason may be, Karen Karapetyan was left out the game and somewhere along the way Nikol was pushed into the political limelight. Concurrently, the situation was allowed to get a little out-of-hand as tens-of-thousands of people sensing weakness on part of the authorities took to the streets.
The following is an important point to consider: Had Serj Sargsyan not tried to hold on to power and simply went into retirement, as he should have, the only alternative for leadership in Armenia at the time was undoubtedly Karen Karapetyan. I
reiterate: Nikol was a political nobody prior to the upheaval in April.
Had Serj Sargsyan retired, Karen Karapetyan would have undoubtedly become the next prime minister. Regardless of intention and whether or not he was forced to do what he did, by callously holding on to power and in doing so inciting social unrest, Serj
Sargsyan essentially helped propel Nikol (who as I said was the only
political opposition standing) into the political limelight, and in doing so he also effectively eliminated Karen Karapetyan's political prospects.
To my astonishment, it was eventually learned that Moscow may have in fact been instrumental in Nikol's rise to power. Perhaps to reciprocate, perhaps he has no choice in the matter, Nikol has since been singing all the right songs about Russia; so has the newly appointed foreign minister; so has the newly appointed president.
What
we saw this spring could not happen by
chance or against the wishes of a geopolitical behemoth like Russia
and/or Supranational forces (i.e. international elite) at play in
Armenia. There
had to have been a political masterminds or puppet-masters directing
events from behind-the-scenes. Nikol's meteoric rise was clearly
orchestrated by invisible forces. Simply put: Somebody wanted Serj down, Karen out and Nikol in. Someone clearly wanted to get rid of the old guard in the country. I suspect Levon Petrosyan's foreign patrons to have a hand in what happened. This therefore leaves us with one fundamental question: Why? And this brings me to current president, Armen Sargsyan.
Armen Sargsyan was unexpectedly
and mysteriously brought back to Armenia from his ambassadorial
position in London by Serj Sargsyan himself merely weeks before the
political upheaval. It would therefore not surprise me one bit if Armen
Sargsyan (and Levon Petrosyan) also played a role in what transpired in Armenia this spring.
Although I have respect for Armen Sargsyan because of his intellect,
professionalism and experience in fields of science, business and politics, I nevertheless
cannot figure-out the real reason behind his return to Armenia, by the order of Serj Sargsyan nonetheless. His return to
Armenia, especially at this crucial period in time, has therefore been
enigmatic/cryptic for me.
Equally
puzzling is Nikol's decision to keep this particular high profile
appointment made by the previous "illegitimate" prime minister, when he
has gotten rid of most others citing legitimacy concerns. Moreover,
Armen Sargsyan may not even be eligible to hold high office in Armenia
due to residency issues that have not yet been fully clarified. Many in the country, including CIA asset Paruyr Hayrikyan, have raised concerns over this matter. None of this however seems to be a problem for Nikol. In my opinion, this is
all quite suspicious. Perhaps Armen Sargsyan was brought back to the country
by Supranational interests, the same that are behind Levon Petrosyan, the same that also put Nikol into power. If
so, the City of London and Freemasonry readily comes to mind. Armen Sargsyan is after
all accused of being a ranking Freemason. None of this however is to suggest
that any of this was done against the Kremlin's wishes; which for me is the main puzzling aspect in all this. In fact, it's beginning to look like the Kremlin was actually part of the plan to get rid of the country's old guard. In any case, Armen Sargsyan is also known to have ties in Russia, and as president he has also been singing all the right songs about Russian-Armenian relations. For now, I will reserve additional comments about him. I will however remain suspicious.
Perhaps Serj, Nikol, Armen, Karen and Levon were all in on the plan in varying degrees and capacities. Perhaps not. Regardless, in the end it was "Moscow's man" in Yerevan that ostensibly came out the loser. At face value, it looks like a Russian defeat in Armenia. But, ask yourselves: After seeing what Russia has done in places like Georgia, Ukraine and Syria when its core interests were threatened, how could the Kremlin be ok with losing Armenia to Western and/or Globalist interests? All indicators suggest that high level Kremlin officials are perfectly fine with what happened. In my opinion, the Kremlin would not take what happened in Armenia this casually if it was not somehow also involved in the effort to replace the old guard. Armenia is just as important to Russia as Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Donbass and Syria. If Moscow is ok with Western/Globalist funded individuals coming to power in Yerevan, then something must be up. That, in a nutshell, is my concern.
Events that took place in April looked and felt deliberate and orchestrated. I am not the only one that thinks so -
«Նիկոլն ու Սերժը միասին էին ծրագրել հեղափոխությունը, փաստեր ու վիդեոներ կան». Ռոբերտ Սիմոնյան: http://bavnews.am
Նիկոլն ով ա՞. Նիկոլը մարտի 1-ին ժողովրդին խբել տվեց. Սարգիս Կարապետյան: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgnbQ6-Y1q8
Before I go on, I would like to say that Nikol has done two things that, at face value, I am very happy about. Foremost, I am glad he has been consistently singing all the right songs about Russian-Armenian relations.
I see that he is even going out of his way to show allegiance to the
Kremlin. That is to his credit, regardless of who is behind his rise to
power. I am also very happy that he has allowed Armenia's National Security Services (NSS) to finally go after Manvel Grigoryan, one of the more disgusting Chobans in Armenia. Ironically, and this should be pointed out, ten years ago Nikol and Manvel were on the same team, that of Levon Petrosyan.
In any case, I hope going after individuals like Manvel (who fully
deserves his public humiliation) was not merely a symbolic PR gesture or
a show designed to appease or distract the euphoric Street, and I
certainly hope is was not done as a measure to discredit or weaken the
country's very powerful war veterans union (Երկրապահ Կամավորականների
Միություն) which has been very active in the nation's political life in
the post-war years. Weakening of the war veterans union will only hurt
Artsakh. In any case, I hope to see Nikol's regime sincerely go after all those
who have engaged in serious criminal activity in the country and not
merely prosecute low level criminals. But, I don't expect that
to happen because Nikol is serving a grander political purpose in my
opinion.
And one more thing. Nikol's "Velvet" revolution was bloodless only because of Vladimir Putin and Serj Sargsyan. I find it very strange that the "Street" is very proud of achieving a "bloodless revolution". Are we as a people so naïve, so delirious that we are giving credit to ourselves for something we had nothing to do with? There are only two individuals who can be credited with the bloodless coup in Yerevan, and they are Vladimir Putin and Serj Sargsyan. Period. We now know that Serj stood-down to give Nikol a path forward. From what we now know, Moscow was somehow involved in the decision. Had Putin given the green light to Sargsyan for a serious crackdown early on, I have no doubt Nikol's movement would have dissolved within a few days. There would have been heightened tensions and sporadic violence for a little while but they would soon subside and life would have returned to normal soon thereafter. For some reason, it was decided to replace the country's old guard. Why? It has yet to be determined.
Moscow's apparent support for Nikol is concerning
I
confess I was never a Nikol fan. Until proven wrong, and I hope I am, I will remain a critic for reasons
that should be obvious to all by now. Simply put: They are his
associations, both past and current, as well as his personal character. In
the past, Nikol was one of Levon
Petrosyan's main street activists. Almost exactly 10 years ago, he was
deeply
involved with Levon Petrosyan's Color Revolution. In effect,
Nikol at the time was trying to help bring back into power a
Globalist-backed criminal who had raped and pillaged the country in the
early post-Soviet years. In a sense, Nikol today is fighting a "corrupt
system" that was actually put in place by his former boss. In fact, I also suspect Levon Petrosyan's hand in what has occurred. Nikol's revolution may have been a Levon Petrosyan revolution by other means. Both of their foreign backers seem to be the same as well. Nikol and his fellow activists have more
recently been closely associated
with a number of Western funded NGOs, Washington-based National Endowment for Democracy and Policy Forum Armenia and George Soros financed Open Society -
National Endowment for Democracy's grants database: https://www.ned.org/wp-content/themes/ned/search/grant-search
Open Society Foundations Armenia Grant List of 2017 Year: http://www.osf.am/about-company/grants-lists/2017/
Fighting for Sexual Minorities Rights and Equality in Armenia: https://humanrightshouse.org/articles/fighting-womens-rights-equality-armenia/
Policy Forum Armenia Members: http://www.pf-armenia.org/members
Throughout
his life, Nikol made a living in politics by
fearmongering, mudslinging and smut-peddling (i.e. Western-funded journalism). So, please excuse me for not liking or trusting him. As the reader can see, my opinion about Nikol is based purely and precisely on what we all have all-along known about him all these years. It's that simple. And based on what I have known about him, I am simply making the assumption that nothing good will ultimately come out of his administration. I keep hearing that the past ten years have changed him for the better. I would not be too sure about that. Only time and his actions will reveal his true character. From what I have known about him, Nikol is by nature and character a Globalist and a neo-Bolshevik. Nikol is more of a "street activist" than a professional politician. Nikol is more of "rebel rouser" than a political thinker. Nikol is more of a "shit stirrer" than a reformer. Nikol's revolution can also be characterized as a Levon Petrosyan revolution by other means. I would not be surprised if Levon had a direct hand in what happened. Nikol may also be Jewish from his biological mother's side, but that's not important to the topic of this conversation as it also remains unconfirmed at this time.
What's important is that his newly formed administration is more-or-less a refection of his character. Babken Ter-Grigoryan, the deputy minister of diaspora is a London residing Russophobe. David Sanasaryan, the head of the State Oversight Service is a longtime Western-funded activist that idolizes war criminals like Mikheil Saakashvili and Donald Rumsfeld. Lilit Makunts, the Minister of Culture until recently worked for the CIA connected Peace Corps. Ararat Mirzoyan, the particularly repulsive first deputy prime minister supports dangerous vaccinations, GMOs and marijuana cultivation. Arsen Torosyan, the country's arrogant new minister of health is someone that has been deliberately pushing Monsanto products among other Western poisons in the country. Nikol's newly formed government is beginning to look like a George Soros funded kindergarten. These people present a more serious danger to Armenia's long-term health than the corrupt regime they replaced.
Let's also understand that Nikol's "non-violent" movement did not
follow the model of his African idol Nelson Mandela's nor that of India's Mahatma
Gandhi's, but that of the CIA sanctioned book by Gene Sharp titled, "From Dictatorship to Democracy".
Nikol
Pashinyan is a neo-Bolshevik opportunist who managed to exploit the Armenian Street's political illiteracy and hatred
toward its leadership. And he was helped in this regard by unseen hands. Nothing good, at least in the long-term, will come out of it. Nikol's government has the potential to facilitate the importation of multiculturalism, loan-based economic system, GMOs, liberalism, feminism, homosexuality, pedophilia, dangerous vaccinations, open society, open borders and of course mind-numbing Anglo-American-Jewish pop culture. But, the "Armenian Street" is happy, and that's what counts according to the sacred tenets of Democracy.
By
backing or tolerating Nikol, was Moscow hoping to somehow maneuver Karen Karapetyan
into power, as some of us thought or were hoping at the time? If so, Moscow
failed miserably. Perhaps, Nikol's lucky stars lined-up and he
miraculously managed to outmaneuver all political players in the
country. Perhaps, recognizing the inevitability of Serj Sargsyan's
political demise, Kremlin decided to embrace Nikol in order
to avoid serious unrest/bloodshed in the country, as well as establish healthy
lines-of-communication with the new team coming into power in Yerevan.
Perhaps, recognizing that Russia is indeed the alpha and the omega of
the south Caucasus and Armenia only real lifeline in the world, Nikol and company decided
to accept the Kremlin's largess. If what I just outlined above is indeed
what more-or-less happened in Armenia this spring - that is if Nikol
luckily stumbled into power during a failed effort by Moscow to get
Karen Karapetyan into power - then I have no doubt that the Kremlin is
preparing Nikol's political demise as I write this. If what happened in Armenia this spring was fully in-line with the Kremlin's wishes, Armenia still stands to lose. We can therefore
expect serious problems going forward regardless of who or what was behind Nikol's political rise.
But, seeing how quiet and inactive
Kremlin officials and Karen were during all stages of the political
movement being built by Nikol, I seriously doubt Nikol's rise to power went against the Kremlin's wishes. We
now know that Nikol's team may have actually been in touch with the
Kremlin during the ordeal. We also know that the Kremlin did nothing to
help Serj Sargsyan stay in power. This leads me to believe that there
may have been another calculus behind Moscow's decision to support Nikol. Perhaps Nikol has been recruited by Russian interests. However unlikely it may sound, it is nevertheless a possibility. Weirder or unlikelier things happen in politics. That said, in my opinion, Supranational or Globalist forces are more likely to be the ones behind the effort to bring Nikol into power. But from the looks of it, effort in question seems to have been coordinated with the Kremlin. Again, we have seen weirder and unlikelier things in politics. Whatever the actual case may be, Nikol nevertheless succeeded in ousting Serj, and Karen once again quietly disappeared from Armenian politics. As such, in the post-Soviet struggle in Armenia between Western/Globalist financed mercenaries and wealthy Chobans, the former finally won. We saw however that their win was unique in that this time, perhaps for the first time, Moscow was actually seen supporting those who were known to be financed by Western and Globalist interests.
We basically saw Moscow supporting in Armenia what it has more-or-less outlawed in Russia. This is the puzzle that worries me. And this brings up the very important question of, why? After we have seen what Russia has done in places like Georgia, Ukraine and Syria when its core interests were threatened, how could the Kremlin be ok with losing Armenia to Western/Globalist interests, especially knowing how important Armenia and the south Caucasus is to Russia's regional security? Unless, there is a greater agenda that the Kremlin itself is involved in. Even if Nikol himself was recruited by the Kremlin, why would Moscow support a greater political movement consisting of so many anti-Russian individuals? What sense would that make for a nation as strategic for Russia as Armenia?
This is the puzzle and this is what's worrying me. This is something that is apparently puzzling Azeris as well. In
my opinion, Moscow would do such a thing if it had long-term political designs
that would require such a move.
In other words, seeing someone like Nikol in power may actually fit a particular
agenda of theirs. Knowing how politics work, I am sure that agenda is not to make Armenia a better place. Perhaps Kremlin officials have reached some kind of a
"power sharing" deal with Supranational or Globalist interests over
Armenia. Perhaps Nikol is being prepared for some future event or occasion. My fear is that allowing the reigns of government in Yerevan
to fall under the control of foreign funded shit
stirrers and rebel rousers like Nikol and friends - who are essentially a group of idealistic people with practically no experience in
international affairs - is designed to cause internal unrest in the country, and it may somehow be
connected to the unresolved dispute over Artsakh. More on Artsakh later in my commentary. Allow me to remind the reader that unlike developed countries around the world, Armenia has not yet developed political institutions or a "deep state" to assist new comers into politics safely navigate the turbulent waters of Eurasian politics. Simply put, what you see in the presidential office in Yerevan is more-or-less what you get in Armenian politics. This is a very serious matter that poses a serious danger to the country. In final analysis, the country's lack of established political institutions is the reason why I think foreign-funded idealistic street activists like Nikol and associates can pose serious long-term risks to the country. Political inexperience and internal unrest will inevitably have a very negative impact on not only Armenia but also on Artsakh.
Moscow's support or tolerance of a movement full of Western and Globalist funded activists therefore sets Armenia apart
from other nations that have fallen victim to Western and Globalist
machinations. Russians must know who/what Nikol and his team represent in
Armenia. But, as I have been pointing out, we also know that they, the Kremlin, helped paved the way for
Nikol's rise to power. I repeat: What we essentially saw Moscow doing in Armenia
was supporting something (i.e. Anglo-American-Jewish and Globalist financed activists)
that it has effectively banned in Russia. The question
is, why? This is the conundrum or
puzzle that greatly concerns me. I think there needs to be better realization of this confounding nuance. The mixed signals from Russia is as
perplexing as it is worrying. Azeris are also beginning to take note
and asking questions -
Following Armenian uprising, Azerbaijan’s saber rattling grows louder: https://eurasianet.org/s/following-armenian-uprising-azerbaijans-saber-rattling-grows-louder
Armenia changing geopolitical orientation: https://en.trend.az/other/commentary/2911733.html
We want to ask Russia: Why?!: http://azeridaily.com/analytics/38756
Why Pashinyan acts as puppet of the West?: http://menafn.com/1096972444/Why-Pashinyan-acts-as-puppet-of-the-West
Russophobes in Pashinyan’s team: Soros tilting boat of pro-Armenian premier: https://eadaily.com/en/news/2018/05/28/russophobes-in-pashinyans-team-soros-tilting-boat-of-pro-armenian-premier
Брюссельский облом Никол Пашинян решил опробовать путь Порошенко: https://m.lenta.ru/articles/2018/07/18/pashinyan/
Armenia now has a government that acknowledges
its dependency on Russia for survival, but also a government that
is appointing inexperienced individuals that have been financed by Anglo-American
and Globalist interests to important governmental positions. We
now therefore have a very weird and potentially dangerous political
setup in Yerevan. The character of Nikol and friends was the
reason why some Russian officials were initially taken aback with what was happening in Armenia, which is seen as one of Russia's most strategic
footholds in the Caucasus. Some of them have been quite angry. The man in
the following interview is
a Russian Duma official -
ПРИШЛО ВРЕМЯ "УЙТИ НА ТОТ СВЕТ" АРМЯНСКОЙ НАЦИИ. ИЛИ КАК БУДУТ ВЫРЕЗАТЬ АРМЯН, СОГЛАСНО ПЛАНАМ США?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoLNySuMXVk
Regarding the Russian Duma: It is well known that real political power in Russia has always resided in the Kremlin, not in the Russian Duma. The Duma essentially acts as the PR wing of the Kremlin. What's more, generally speaking, Duma officials are not privy to major or highly sensitive political agendas that are designed in various departments of the Kremlin. That said, it's worrying nonetheless to see these types of sentiments being expressed by Russian officials, regardless of their rank or position. At a basic level, it basically means that Armenia or Armenians are not very much trusted in official circles inside Russia. This is not where we want Armenia to be, especially in the times we are living in. Armenia's is very dependent on Russia for survival. The south Caucasus is a very violent and unforgiving place full of Turkic and Islamic predators. I would like to remind the reader that one wrong step in a place like the south Caucasus and Armenia will have another one thousand years of hibernation. We need an Armenia that is fully integrated inside Russia's orbit. We need organized and persistent lobbying efforts inside the Kremlin. We need Russian official to be confident of their ties with their counterparts in Armenia. Our people's political illiteracy and lack of foresight, as well as its unwavering fetish for all things Western/American, is preventing Armenia from fully benefiting from its historic ties with a superpower and a natural ally like Russia.
As the reader can see, on the one hand Russia (the Kremlin to be specific) is signaling that it has no problems with the recent regime change in Yerevan. On the other hand, Russians (media outlets and individuals to be more specific) are warning Armenia. Am I the only one that sees serious problems here? What we have in Yerevan is a weird setup that will not work well in the long run. Echoing Armenia's plight in Roman times, when Rome and Persia together ruled over Armenia, what we have today is essentially the joint sharing of the country by Russian and Western/Globalist interests. I don't like the smell of it. Similar to how such a joint-sharing did not turnout well in Roman times, it will not turnout well this time either. What we have in Yerevan today is a recipe for disaster.
What we have in Armenia today is essentially an amazing feat of political incompetence, shortsightedness and self-destructivity. I don't want to leave the impression that I taking the side of Armenia's wealthy Chobans. I am blaming all sides - our wealthy Chobans and their supporters, our Western/Globalist financed activists and their supporters and the so-called Street - for the serious mess Armenia has been in all these years. Ten years ago, I became convinced that we Armenians are a self-destructive people. Ten years later, I am convinced we Armenians may be the only ones to blame for all the black pages in our history. Collectively, we Armenians are a restless, impatient, shortsighted, disorganized, reactionary, undisciplined, materialistic, clannish, arrogant, emotional and a politically illiterate people, and a people who is also never satisfied with their overall situation. These kinds of traits, especially in a place like the south Caucasus, will continue proving very problematic and explosive. In my opinion, we Armenians, as a people, are still very far from being trusted full ownership of Armenia. I therefore sleep better knowing that the Kremlin looms large in Yerevan.
Speaking of Armenian traits and politics, I want to say one more thing. The Armenian nation loves Nikol because he is by nature a weak leader.
He is actually not a political leader at all. As I said, he is more of a
rebel rouser and a shit stirrer. He is also an appeaser and he wants to
portray himself as a "people's man". Historically, Armenians have loved their weak leaders. Weak
leaders make the Armenian Street feel important and strong. Statehood is something
the typical Armenian does not profoundly understand or cares much about.
A powerful statehood is in fact something that Armenians by nature reject. With
Nikol, the people feel it's all about them and not the state. This is a win-win for Nikol and for the Armenian Street, but not so for the Armenian state.
What's good for the health and longevity of
the
state is not always the same as what's good for the people. In fact,
what the state needs and what the people want often clash with one
another. There
are many examples of this. Simple example: The state may need every
able bodied young man in the country to serve in the military. Armenian
parents, Armenian mothers in particular, will always beg to differ.
Another simple example: The state requires that all its citizens pay
their share of taxes. Armenians, Armenians business
owners in particular, will always beg to differ. Armenians are by
nature a people that tend to reject laws and taxes that they see as
nuisances as well as hindrances to their personal and/or family ambitions. Armenians are by nature a people that reject statehood when it
becomes too powerful or too demanding. Moreover, Armenians by nature prefer living in already developed
nations, rather than developing their own nation. Armenians are also by
nature a people that prefers
the rule of non-Armenians. We have seen all this throughout much of
Armenian history.
And all this is essentially why Armenia's enemies today are keen on
empowering the "people" in Armenia. These are also the reasons why
Armenians have been periodically slaughtered. These are also the reasons
why Armenians have been unable to create a long lasting powerful nation
in the post-Urartu period.
Other than some show arrests and prosecutions of low level criminals, Nikol's regime will not "end corruption". Other than lofty talk, they will also not reverse the outflow
of people from Armenia. Armenia will continue suffering from economic stagnation and malaise. What's more, Nikol and his team are also the last people in Armenia to do whatever it takes to defend Artsakh's territorial integrity in case of a major war. Which brings me to another point. Although they will deny it, anti-Artsakh
animosity played a noticeable role in Nikol's movement. Nikol's popular movement is in no small part a movement to also cleanse Armenia of its so-called
"Karabakh Clan". After all, poisonous rhetoric about the Karabakh Clan was first publicly disseminated ten years ago by Levon
Petrosyan's team of Color revolutionaries, which of course included
none-other-than Nikol himself. What happened this spring can be characterized as a Levon Petrosyan revolution by other means. In any case, the
only thing Nikol's government will manage to do at the end of the day is
expose Armenia to a much higher degree of Western meddling, social
engineering and financial/economic exploitation. I
really hope I will be proven wrong on all accounts, but I feel that
rough times now lie ahead for the country.
I strongly believe that Armenia was the subject of an international conspiracy recently. I believe that an international agenda has been set in motion in the country. It may be a combined Russian, Globalist and/or Anglo-American effort. Regardless of who or what is behind it, I fear the
agenda is to sow
internal instability in the country. As I have said, Nikol an company are
the perfect candidates to wittingly or unwittingly carry-out this agenda. While I have no way of knowing the real
reason or reasons behind the agenda in question, as I keep suggesting, I fear it may be
somehow related to
the dispute over Artsakh. It may also be related to a grander plan involving all of the south Caucasus. I nevertheless feel that a new political landscape and climate is being meticulously prepared in
Yerevan today for a purpose.
Putting aside any conspiracy theories involving Serj Sargsyan, under his flawed rule we at least knew what to expect in Armenia. In parlance: Serj was the Devil we knew, Nikol is the Angel we don't.
With Serj in power, we knew the general direction in which Armenia was heading. With Nikol, it's an unknown. Under Serj's rule, we knew the country was slowly improving. Governmental positions in the country were getting populated by professionals, albeit very slowly. The stability and predictability of the government was slowly beginning to attract an increasing number of tourists and investments from around the world. The reemergence of Karen Karapetyan in the nation's political landscape was also a good sign that encouraged a lot of political observers. I should also point out that the country's much hated Chobans in Armani suites are not in the best of health. They would have started to die-off in the coming few years. In any case, under Serj's rule Armenia's economy was slowly growing and Armenia remained stable and peaceful for the most part. In other words, Armenia was slowly evolving. Now, all that has been thrown out the window as they say. And what lies ahead is an unknown.
Nikol and his associates, well meaning as they may or may not be regarding fighting corruption in the country, are nevertheless also the champions of
Westernization, Globalization, Liberalism and the Anglo-American-Jewish financial system. Nothing good will therefore come out of them in the long-term. What's more, we still have to wait and see what the Supranational agenda has in store for Armenia. In final analysis, what makes Nikol and friends dangerous is that we don't exactly know who is behind them and what their real intentions are. They are dangerous also because they are far more sophisticated in their ways than the wealthy but backward Chobans they replaced.
In
the short-term, we may indeed see some positive things in the country.
Things like the
perception that "corruption is being fought" and the "Democratic process
in the country is working". It
will however inevitably prove to be only a veneer. For the long-term, Nikol's
government and the precedent his movement has set, has the real potential
to prove toxic for the country's long-term health.
Specifically, the toxicity I
am referring to is the importation of Western and Globalist "values" and financial debt, as well as turning Armenia into a battlefield between East and West in the process. Armenia's post-Soviet generation is already seriously
intoxicated with such Western poisons. We are after all talking about an English speaking generation who's idols are "Super Sako" and "Kim Kardashian". As I keep saying, Soviet Armenia gave us Aram Khachaturyan. Independent Armenia gave us Aram Assatryan. Armenian culture is dead today. And it's we Armenians that killed it.
Sadly, post-Soviet Armenia
has faced a stark choice between Western-funded mercenaries and Chobans in Armani
suites. Sadly, it has been essentially a choice between the Nemets Rubos, Chorny Gagos, Dodi Gagos and
Lfik Samos and Monsanto, USAID, IMF and George Soros. The country, at least for now, has
no alternative to the aforementioned. With all that said, in my opinion, the Chobans were less of a long-term threat to the country.
I reiterate: Nikol
Pashinyan is a neo-Bolshevik opportunist who managed to exploit the Armenian Street's political illiteracy and hatred
toward its leadership. And he was helped in this regard by unseen hands. Nothing
good, at least in the long-term, will come out of it. In fact, Nikol's
newly formed government is already beginning to look like a George Soros
funded kindergarten. Some of his appointments pose a more
serious long-term danger to Armenia than the regime they replaced. But,
the "Street" is happy, and that's what counts according to the sacred tenets of
Democracy.
With that said, I have to say that I am not much concerned about Russian-Armenian
relations. At this point in time, even if Mikheil Saakashvili became Armenia's Prime Minister,
Armenia would still remain closely allied with Russia. The reality
of the matter is that Armenia has no where to go.
Armenia will therefore stay in the Russian
orbit, willingly or reluctantly. But, this "willingly or reluctantly" is what I
have
an issue with. I want Armenia's alliance with Russia to be willing and
organic, as it
would prove more efficient and beneficial. I would
rather have Armenia willingly and eagerly standing next to Russia
instead of forcing Russia to keep it on a short leash. From time to time, I hear our idiots
(from top to bottom, from the Diaspora to the
villages of Armenia) saying things like, "we have no choice but to
be allied to Russia". As if to say, had it not been for Armenia's
problems with Turks/Azeris, we would be in the Western camp. What kind
of
a message are we sending Moscow? Come and put us on a short leash? I
want an Armenia that is organically, culturally, integrally and enthusiastically
part of the Russian orbit, so that it can freely and efficiently derive
benefits from its ties to it.
I want Armenians to be in Russia how Jews are in the United States.
Perhaps I am expecting too much of a people like us Armenians.
A number of very bad precedents were set by the recent political uprising
What's
happening in Armenia today is a very dangerous situation because of a
number of bad precedents that recent political events have set. As noted above, the relative political stability and predictability that Armenia
enjoyed under Republican (Հանրապետական) party is now destroyed, perhaps
forever. Nikol is backed by unknown forces (most probably Globalists) and surrounded by dubious personalities, some of whom
have very clear anti-Russian biases. The people or the Armenian Street as it is also called, as emotional and ignorant as it is, is now convinced of its prowess and
political wisdom. Going forward, the country now risks having popular uprisings
every few election cycle, simply because the Armenian Street has seen that it works. This kind of political culture and societal mindset will prove detrimental for the long-term health of Armenia as well as Artsakh. So, while euphoria and hope fills the air, Armenia is entering a new phase that is actually fraught with unknowns and dangers.
In
my political philosophy, an intelligent people do not create political
voids and then "hope" that something good will come along to fill it. We basically broke something without first securing a
proper or safe replacement for it. It's like quitting a steady job without first
finding a better one.
At a personal level, it's no big deal,
you'll survive. At a national level, it's very dangerous. Nikol will eventually prove
to be a bad choice. Maybe not. But that is not the point. The point is,
no one knew what kind of a replacement Nikol would be to Serj. The people simply wanted to get rid of Serj's government at all cost and regardless of any repercussion. It was, "anybody
but Serj". This is not smart politics. I want to again remind my
reader that I was never really a fan of Serj Sargsyan. I always played
devil's advocate with him because I saw him to be the lesser evil in the
country. However, the conventional wisdom that Serj was a bad guy and
that is why the people had to rally behind a good guy like Nikol in
order to oust him is a very childish take on a very complex matter. This
kind of approach to solving any of life's problems never works out well
in final analysis. In my political philosophy, the "Street" should not
decide who is given power in a country. Such as task need to be
entrusted to an established elite, albeit one that is well educated and
patriotic. Unfortunately, we do not yet have such an elite. In any case,
giving the Street political prominence is a very dangerous road to be
on, especially for a people like Armenians, especially for a place like
the south Caucasus.
If the
previous regime was flirting with Western powers through an open window, the
current regime will open wide all it's doors to it. Unless Nikol has been recruited by Russian interests
(which as I said is a possibility albeit a very small one), his
government will
only ostensibly pay allegiance to Moscow (essentially because it has no
choice in the matter), but in heart-and-soul it will be pro-Western, pro-European,
pro-American
and pro-Globalist. So, with Nikol and friends in power, we can expect a
gradual increase of operations by Western
intelligence services and social engineers like Open Society, IMF,
vaccinations, NED, Monsanto and USAID. We can also expect an
inundation of mind-numbing Anglo-American-Jewish-African pop culture, feminist and homosexual
propaganda, and even perhaps Muslim war refugees from the Middle East and Africa. As I said, if the previous regime gave
lip-service to Western and Globalist interests, the current
administration has the potential of opening the floodgates to them.
We as a people need to get out of the revolutionary and/or radical changes mindset. Revolutions and radical changes in politics are dangerous because they are unpredictable. Imagine what would have happened if Serj Sargsyan refused to step down
and ordered his forces to crackdown on the protesters. Imagine if
foreign mercenaries incited violence as they had done in Ukraine in
2014. Imagine what would have happened is a foreign funded radical groups like the "Sasna Dzrer" rose to power as a result of such political turmoil. Imagine if Armenia descended into chaos, and Azeris attempted to take advantage of the situation. For island nations or nations without
neighboring predators, none of these things are a very big deal from a national standpoint; they survive in the end. But for a
nation like Armenia, revolutions are risky and they can pose an existential threat to the country.
We
may have lost out on the opportunity to gradually evolve a top heavy
technocratic government, something Armenia desperately needed. At a
fundamental level, a nation-state essentially needs five things to
function normally: One, hard working and law abiding citizenry. Two,
highly educated and patriotic political and financial elite. Three, well
established national institutions of power. Four, protectionist
(nationalistic) economic policies. Five, a modern and efficient armed
forces. And all this, under a top heavy (semi-authoritarian) government. This is how the world's most successful nations, including those
of the Western world, reached their political and economic zenith
throughout history. The best political and economic models are those
that are in varying degrees both nationalistic and socialistic, and
always top heavy. There is no other way forward for developing nations,
as well as for nation-states that value their political, economic and
cultural sovereignty. Yet, very small numbers of people today truly
understands any of this. Therein lies the real long-term danger humanity
faces today. What I am essentially saying is that liberal democracy,
civil society and "people power" are roads to decay and decline. In the
case of Armenia, it may even prove fatal.
The belief that power should rest in the hands of the people can prove
suicidal for a difficult people like us Armenians and in a problematic
place like the South Caucasus. From the looks of it, we may eventually
have this conversation in a few years when Armenians led by another
group of scoundrels will sack yet another one of our unpopular leaders.
It may be a vicious cycle that will go on-and-on until one day regional
predators will simply step in and put an end to our internal troubles. With the political mindset reigning in Armenia today - namely that the people will now decide what is right and that "the people united cannot be defeated" - the country will find itself in a very serious predicament in the not too distant future. And I will find no pleasure in saying I told you so. At this pace, every few years or so we Armenians will face the risk of losing our homeland to regional predators because our "people" are now finally convinced, by imperial plutocrats in the West nonetheless, that Democracy exists and that it works. Well, perhaps with the exception of Iceland and Switzerland, Democracy does not exist and it does not work. Western powers are not Democratic. The West is an elite-based Plutocracy, very similar to an Oligarchy. The kind of Democracy being promoted in Armenia, by imperial Plutocrats in the West nonetheless, envisions giving the ignorant masses of the country the political power to basically be self-destructive. Democracy for underdeveloped or developing nations like Armenia is essentially mob rule. Democracy is also where celebrities (artists, musicians, actors, etc.) think they are among the great political thinkers and philosophers of our time, and they are actually listened to by the masses. In a nutshell: Democracy is toxic for developing nations, especially inexperienced nations and troublesome people like us Armenians. The most important thing for a nation is political stability; the peace of mind knowing where your nation is and the direct it is heading. The moment this predictability and stability is disrupted, the moment political power falls into the hands of the Street, the nation will enter a cycle of instability, unrest and decline.
Because
of their hate and emotions, the Armenian Street was blinded to the fact that
Armenia's problems are not
this or that politician or this or that political party. In fact,
most of Armenia's domestic sociopolitical problems come
directly from the "Armenian Street" itself. Yes, masses around the world
tend to be ignorant and/or easily mislead and/or politically exploited. But there is a huge difference between
Armenians and people in places like Japan, Korea, Singapore,
Ireland, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, Norway and Iceland. We Armenians are not only
politically ignorant (although we have the least excuse to be as such as
we have lived in a very political environment) we are also by nature
unruly and self-destructive. These traits transpose themselves into our
nation's politics. Therefore, putting blame on this or that politicians or activists or political party is
to not see the bigger picture. Convincing
the masses that it is all powerful when united and that it knows what
it's doing politically does not bode well for the country's future. As with any Street in the world, the Armenian Street - with its
arrogance, tribalism, materialism, emotions, jealousy and political
illiteracy - cannot be trusted to make the right decisions for a country
like Armenia, which is located in one of the most volatile and
complicated regions of the world. In fact, not everything that is good
for the nation is good for the people. There are things that the
nation's needs for its security and longevity that may not be something
that the "voters" want or even understand. At a fundamental level, this is
why Democracy is exceedingly dangerous for a nation like Armenia.
I for one would not want
to live in a country, especially one in the south Caucasus, where every
few years there may be a new political direction. Even
if Nikol is not an agent of the West, we know that many Western agents and
unsavory characters saturate
the Armenian landscape today. Will they one day also be able to grab
power in similar fashion? Also, going forward, every time 51%-plus of the people dislike
their leader, will they disregard the nation's constitution and take to
the streets to oust him or her from power? Will newly arriving governments use the country's law enforcement bodies to settle scores with the previous government? The reality of the matter is
that Armenia stands today on the cusp of a perennial political freak
show and
circus. The reality of the matter is that the Street does not solve problems; never has, never will. Well established national institutions solve problems. We need to seek what's good for the country in the long-term. Neo-Bolsheviks on the other hand have convinced people that the short-term is more important. They have also convinced the people that they are more important than the state. Let's always be mindful of the fact that what the Street or the people want/desire and what the nation/state actually needs are not often the same.
Trashing the nation's constitution does not bode well for the country's future.
The excuse that the nation's corrupt leadership was already breaking
rules as to the reason why the so called Street is justified in also
breaking rules is a self-limiting and self-destructive approach to any
matter, let alone a serious matter like the nation's politics. Such a
mentality creates a vicious cycle. After all, two wrongs don't make a
right and the product of two negatives is still a negative. The notion
that the citizenry can disregard the nation's laws if the people
perceives it to be unimportant or breakable will prove toxic for the
county in the long-run. This is a very dangerous road to be on. With
the precedence that was set, namely that the people can trash the
nation's constitution and laws if it dislikes its leader for one reason
or another, Armenia is set to suffer serious periodic political unrest
in the future.
I was profoundly
ashamed of my nationality when I found out that active duty soldiers had abandoned their base with their
commander and joined the demonstrations. Are we a Banana Republic? In
civilized countries, soldiers and policemen are expected to functions
like robots and machines. They are trained and expected to perform tasks at the behest
of the state, regardless of who is at the top. No questions asked. The
function of military men is to carry-out orders from their commander in
chief, regardless of whether or not they agree with it. At worst, a
soldier and/or police officer can refuse to fire on his countryman, if
given such an order. But to abandon their posts and join demonstrators
just because they don't like their leader?! What kind of a people are we? What's next, each political
player in the country will have its own loyal group of soldiers? Maybe
soldiers will also refuse to fight wars if they think the war is not to
their liking? What happened to law and order? Now that we set this
troubling precedence, every few years we can overthrow an unpopular
leader (for Armenians there will always be ample reasons to dislike
their leaders) with the help of elements in the military. Maybe
different units in the military can fight each other next time as well.
Why not?
If we want a nation to be proud of, there has to be reverence towards state institutions regardless of how flawed
they are thought to be. The
same applies to all seats of power. There has to be respect for the
premiership/presidency of
the country, as well as that of the national church, regardless of how
flawed the people occupying them are thought
to be. This is how our Turkish neighbors became an empire. This is how
Europeans produced so many empires throughout history. Never in the
annals of human history did
an empire or a powerful nation rise out of a "Liberal Democracy" or
"Civil Society", or from a people who hates and/or distrusts their
superiors.
Allowing
individuals who are financed by Western and Globalist interests to
assume positions of power in the country does not bode well for the
country's future. In the short-term, it may look and feel beneficial. In the
long-term, however, it will prove toxic. Making Moscow deeply distrustful of
Armenia's political fetishes does not bode well for the country's future either. Western
and Globalist interests finance "social
change","open society", "minority rights" and "press freedoms" in targeted nations around
the world precisely to weaken them and make them susceptible to inner
decay/rot. We have seen them do this throughout the world, including
Europe, for many decades. There are two fundamental purposes behind why they relentlessly push Democracy, Liberalism, Westernization and Globalization onto
nations: One,
to subjugate afflicted nations and put them under the rule of
Anglo-American-Jews, after which such nations are economically exploited
and their national culture is transformed into a reflection of American pop culture.
Two, by empowering the ignorant masses and minorities (sexual, religious
and ethnic), they try to sow sociopolitical instability in the country,
which then starts a cycle of political unrest every election cycle.
With the tacit approval of all post-Soviet governments in Armenia, Western powers via their servants throughout Armenian society have been writing all
the political narratives about Armenia and Russia via a not so little army of Western-funded news outlets and NGOs.
Among other things, this narrative basically states that
Russian officials have been keeping Armenia under control and
economically depressed through Armenia's oligarchs. Consequently, the conventional
wisdom in Armenian society therefore was that Armenia's oligarchs were essentially owned by the
Kremlin. Although some (like some of my readers) knew all this to be
bullshit, the Armenian Street believed it for the most part. We know that there are degrees and variations of control and influence. Moscow did heavily influence Armenian politics merely by its large political and military presence throughout the region. But Moscow did not fully control Yerevan's politics. Yes, Serj and company were keeping close to Moscow for security reasons. We saw this in Armenia's membership in CSTO and EEU, as well as hosting two Russian military bases in the country. But Yerevan did not allow Moscow to call all the shots in Armenia's domestic and foreign affairs. A multitude of Western-funded NGOs, one of the largest US embassies in the word and close cooperation between Yerevan and entities such as NATO and EU attested to this. Moscow never really had direct control over Yerevan. Moscow never really respected or trusted any of Armenia's oligarchs, including Serj Sargsyan. Moscow was simply forced to deal with them because they were successful in holding on to power. Now, by supporting Nikol's rise to power, Moscow was seen as having supported the "Armenian people's choice". This was a revolution in itself. In any case, that Serj is or was "Moscow's man" was a successful lie put out by Armenia's Western/Globalist backed political opposition. The irony in all this was that Serj himself was allowing this kind of disinformation to take hold. Another bullshit peddled by Western propagandists that has also gotten a lot of traction in Armenian society is that corruption in Armenia is a "Soviet legacy". In reality, corruption is a legacy of Western Capitalists that many in the Soviet sphere, like us Armenians, were dreaming of emulating. In other words, Armenian businessmen wanted to be like America's Robber Barons. All in all, the Armenian Street's fetish with all things American/Western and the influence of thoroughly assimilated Armenian Diasporas of North America and Western Europe should not be underestimated in this regard. Nevertheless, for over 25-plus years Yerevan allowed CIA and George Soros type operations to basically write the political narrative and set the societal mood in the country. For the most part, the narration has been, Armenia is hell on earth and Democracy, Globalization and/or Westernization are the only things that can save it. And the mood fostered has been desperate, hysterical and at time apocalyptic.
According
to some accounts, Armenia has hundreds of NGOs, and most of
the more active ones among them are funded by Western interests. For a tiny, poor country where good paying jobs are very scarce, NGOs pay well and they employ thousands. These thousands have family members and friends.
Among these thousands were virtually all of Nikol's supporters, some of whom incidentally are
now in positions of power in the new government. Therefore, with so many Western funded NGOs operating inside the country, and after 10 years of an information blitz against Armenia,
Armenia was bound to experience a revolution at some point.
Official Yerevan's incompetence, inter-governmental corruption and "Complimentary
Politics" bullshit basically facilitated the inevitable. Simply put: Nikol was able
to exploit the artificially created political climate in Armenia to push forward an agenda. Nikol was
helped along in this regard by a multitude of Western-funded organizations and
individuals that have come to saturate Armenia's landscape in recent
years. Western interests and their servants throughout
Armenian society had created a very toxic environment in the country, and
the nation's officials were too corrupt, too inexperienced and too incompetent to
withstand it. I had warned about this for many years.
Before
it can play with dangerous concepts like Democracy, Armenia first needs
to develop well established national institutions and give birth to to
less selfish, less emotional, less clannish, less materialistic and less
politically illiterate citizens. The danger lies in the realization
that Armenia is a very young republic. The country has not had the time
to develop/evolve a financial "elite", a political "establishment" or
even a "deep state". No such things exist in Armenia today. As the
country exists currently, every few years a new political administration
can rise to power and fundamentally change the course of Armenian
politics. Without deep rooted political, diplomatic, economic, financial and military establishments or
institutions - in other words a national elite - Armenia's political vector can potentially change with
each and every election. This is a very dangerous thing for a developing nation in a
location like the south Caucasus. In fact, this is one of the main
fundamental dangers Armenia faces today. Unfortunately, Armenia today is run by individuals, not by institutions. Unfortunately, individuals (especially Armenians because we as a people today lack national ideology) can be easily bought by this or that foreign interest. In any case, political systems and political course cannot be allowed to be determined by foreign funded mercenaries and the ignorant/emotional masses. Moreover, there cannot be major political changes every few years. Armenia needs a homegrown political/financial elite and well established national institutions that are designed to guide political policy regardless of who is the nation's leader. In other words, the country needs to develop a political backbone, as well as political stability, continuity and predictability. If we are not able to do this, we will continue having political freak shows and street circus every few years, and the country will go further and further into decline. Under such circumstances, the only thing preventing Armenia's collapse will be Moscow's financial assistance and military protection. In other words, without firmly rooted national institutions and political stability, Armenia will always be desperately dependent and hanging from a thread. That is not a situation we would want the country to be in. The country today desperately needs to develop a highly educated and patriotic political and financial elite. Until we have that, I sleep better at nights knowing Moscow is constantly watching over Yerevan's shoulders.
My concern is not about the people, politicians, political parties or
the major powers of our day. These all come and go with time. My main
concern is about the long-term health and well-being of the Armenian state. My concern is about Armenia's
national culture (primarily language, script and national church) and state apparatus (armed forces, security services, diplomatic corps, central bank and national borders). What Armenia needs is a national culture, political outlook and economic system that is well suited to Armenia's reality in a very tumultuous part of the world, and a citizenry and officials educated enough and patriotic enough to be able to administer it. What Armenia needs is to focus its already limited resources solely on its immediate neighborhood, and not seek salvation or titillation from thousands of miles away. And what Armenian Street needs is to mind its own business and live its life. It's becoming increasingly apparent that it's futile to explain any of these things to people. A prosperous and powerful Armenia may only remain a dream as we Armenians seem mistakes of our failed ancestors. We may be stuck in a cycle brought about by genetic memory.
Echoing
two thousand year old Armenian politics, Armenian officials in the
post-Soviet period, both incumbent and opposition, have turned Armenia into a battlefield
between Russia and Western powers. Ostensibly this is being done to preserve Armenia's
independence from the region's geopolitical behemoth, Moscow.
Instead of embracing the behemoth in question for Armenia's benefit,
our people instead find it better to threaten it. This kind of mindless
politics was first seen in the royal courts of Armenia two thousand
years ago. It is therefore the continuation of an ancient political
culture. In other words, it may be genetic memory. Two thousand years ago Armenia was fully in Persia's orbit. Armenia's aristocracy was a scion of the Persian imperial court. Gradually, however, an increasing number of Armenians began desiring the more alluring Roman lifestyle. Armenians began for the first time looking westward. Gradually, the nation began getting politically, ideologically and culturally divided. A deep wedge was inevitably placed between Armenia and Persia. As a result, Armenia
eventually lost its sovereignty and suffered many wars and serious internal unrest hundreds of years. It can be said that Armenia never fully recovered as a viable nation-state
after voluntarily becoming a battlefield between Rome and Persia. Sadly, Armenians have once again turned Armenia into a geopolitical battleground where Russian, Western,
Globalist,
Iranian and Turkish interests clash and vie for influence. All this, essentially because Armenians want to play both sides. Simply put, because
of the age old Armenian desire to live like Romans, but also enjoy the
protection of Persians, Armenia has once again become a laboratory for
conflicting ideologies and a battlefield for competing powers.
Those
that do not want
to see nationalism or ethnic pride take root in any society, including theirs, are
suddenly the ones now encouraging such sentiments in Armenian society.
Yes, Armenia's enemies are now encouraging Armenian pride and nationalism. One such example is a cyber-activist that goes by the name of Vigen Avetisyan. He runs a website that is stocked full of Armenian nationalism and Russophobia. Another example of a professional activist who spouses Armenian nationalism and Russophobia is a nutjob called Andranik Dovlatyan. There are many such examples. The goal is obvious: To drive a deep wedge between Armenia and Russia; convince Armenians that they don't need Russia; convince Armenians that Russia is an enemy. This is why Armenians are presented as a proud, capable and an independent people. And this
is why Russia is presented as an "aggressor" state and an "occupying"
or "colonizing" power. But know this: As soon as political interests behind the above mentioned "patriotic" activists realize their dream of separating
Armenia from Russia, they will then do their utmost best kill nationalism in
Armenia, as they have done elsewhere.
For a long time I have been warning that nationalism is a double-edged sward.
Nationalism is a mindset and it lives in a world of its own. While it
can play an essentially role for a nation's survival,
especially in times of war, it can also play a role in a nation's demise, especially in times of peace. As I predicted,
nationalism, Armenian style mindless patriotism in particular, is
beginning to prove detrimental to the long-term health and well-being of
the Armenian state. As it has been throughout history, nationalists are
among the most gullible, most fanatic and the most easily manipulated
segment of
any society. This is particularly true of Armenian nationalists, who in
their twisted minds think they can recreate a "sea
to sea Armenia" if only Armenians united. Such deranged people also
think that Armenia can not only survive without Russia but also flourish without Russia; again,
if only Armenians united. This kind of nationalism is being encouraged from abroad. This kind of nationalism poses an existential threat to Armenia. It was therefore a very bad idea for the current regime in Yerevan to begin releasing foreign-funded Russophobic militants known as "Sasna Tsrer" from prison. The following is this group's suicidal political platform. Do we want Armenia's new regime to be associated with this kind of suicidal behavior? -
THE TURBULENT WORLD ORDER, ARMEXIT AND THE PROMISING PERSPECTIVE OF A US-ARMENIA STRATEGIC ALLIANCE: http://himnadir.am/turbulent-world-order-armexit-promising-perspective-us-armenia-strategic-alliance-2-2/
Decolonization (Armexit) or the Beginning of the Life Road: https://pfarmenia.wordpress.com/2017/12/30/decolonization/
Again, this kind of nationalism is being promoted from abroad. By releasing these kinds of people from jail, Nikol's regime is encouraging this kind of destructive nationalism. This situation poses a serious threat to Armenia. I repeat: Nikol Pashinyan is a neo-Bolshevik opportunist who managed to exploit the "Street's" political illiteracy and hatred toward its leadership. And he was helped in this regard by unseen hands. Nothing good, at least in the long-term, will come out of it. Nikol's newly formed government is already beginning to look like a George Soros funded kindergarten. Some of his appointments pose a more serious long-term danger to Armenia than the regime they replaced. But, the "Street" is happy, and that's what counts according to the sacred tenets of Democracy.
At the end of the day, Serj and Nikol together opened a very dangerous can of worms. I think Serj's
resignation was pre-planned. I think invisible hands were pushing Nikol
forward. Hidden hands were guiding
political events in Armenia this spring. This is all being planned and funded by players we do not see. There is also a troubling flourishing of fake news sites
throughout social media and the internet. And a number of radical activists previously unknown,
including some clergy, have also come to the fore. It is clear to me that
Armenia is being subjected to an agenda that is now reaching
Artsakh and the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, as well as Armenia Fund and the War Veterans Union.
Someone, somewhere and for reasons we do not yet know, is trying to sow
political instability and unrest in Armenia. Nikol and friends,
whether they realize it or not, are serving this agenda. And the Armenian Street, due to its hate and political illiteracy, is blindly following the script.
Was Nikol's political rise somehow connected to the dispute over Artsakh?
Nothing major that happens in politics happens by chance. Armenian politics is no different. The recent political unrest in Armenia had all the hallmarks of an international political conspiracy. There is no doubt in my mind that hidden hands brought Nikol and friends into power for a specific purpose. I also suspect Levon Petrosyan's hand in what happened. The only question is, what is that purpose? I suspected an Artsakh connection from early on. I fear that an agreement has been reached over the fate of Artsakh, an agreement that will not please Armenians. In a sense, Serj may have given Nikol the "honor" of agreeing to major land concessions sometime in the near future.
In my opinion, where we are today started April 02, 2016. That short-lived border skirmish in Artsakh was the catalyst and may have also been some sort of a trial run, a test. The reader may recall that the fighting came a day or two after Kerry, Sargsyan and Aliyev met in Washington DC. Armenia lost more than a hundred of its soldiers and some territory in a very short period of time. It's been over two years since the fighting and there are still many unanswered questions. I think all sides - Armenia, United States, Azerbaijan as well as Russia - were in on it. I believe it was some sort of test. And it seems to have set a number of things into motion, including the violent act by the "Sasna Dzrer".
I believe Nikol's rise to power is somehow connected to Artsakh. I believe it's regarding major land concessions, either through negotiations or war. Let's recall that Nikol and his close associates, Levon Petrosyan in particular, have long been known to espouse anti-Artsakh sentiments. Nikol however had moderated his stance more recently to make himself more politically palatable.
The
reasoning behind my
concerns over Artsakh are as follows: The regimes of both Yerevan and Baku were being
expected to make peace through concessions,
however painful it may be. Both sides of the conflict however weren't giving-in due to fear of major public backlash. Several years ago, around 2012-2013 to be exact, the Kremlin began approaching the unresolved conflict in question much more seriously than it had before. It had suddenly become an urgent matter for Russia. Why? In my opinion, with Russia resurging throughout Eurasia, settling this 30-plus year old conflict, which is a dangerous open wound in the region, finally became key to pacifying the troubled south Caucasus; maintaining firm control over Yerevan and Baku; forcing Georgia back into Russia's orbit; and giving the EEU a major boost in the process. So, from a Kremlin perspective, the unresolved dispute over Artsakh is making it difficult for it to bring the entire south Caucasus fully back into its orbit. Therefore, after many years of preserving the status quo in Artsakh (which was beneficial to the Armenian side), the geopolitical calculus for Moscow seems to have somewhat changed in recent years. Enter Nikol Pashinyan and his mentor Levon Petrosyan. Both have been known to be open to major land concessions. All the signs thus far suggest that Western/Globalist interests are cooperating with Moscow on this matter.
We knew for a long time that Russian, Western and/or Globalist interests over Artsakh converged for the most part. Each player however was seeking to solve the dispute under it's own terms and conditions; thus prolonging the matter. For its part, Moscow seems to be seeking a permanent military presence between Armenians and Azeris by stationing troops in or around Artsakh. As suggested above, it's been theorized that Moscow is pursuing this because it wants to eventually reincorporate the entire south Caucasus back into its political, economic and military orbit. For their part, Western/Globalist powers seem to be interested in accessing Central Asian energy resources via the south Caucasus; as well as perhaps negotiating a regional stance against Iran. In a nutshell: High level officials from Russia, the West and elsewhere are negotiating the fate of the region as I write this.
There are powerful international interests today that want to see the dispute over Artsakh settled. These may have reached some form of an agreement. Worrying part for me is that Baku currently seems to be holding a distinct advantage over Yerevan. I think something will be attempted with regards to Artsakh in the next 2 or 3 years, perhaps sooner. Nikol's regime change may prove to have been the pivotal point in this agenda. At the very least, allowing Yerevan to fall under the control of Western/Globalist financed officials with very little experience in international relations and geopolitics will inevitably hurt Artsakh. The recent political turmoil in Armenia may therefore have negative repercussions on the situation in Artsakh regardless of whether or not there was a conspiracy.
There will most probably be a final push to end the dispute. I obviously don't know how it will all play out. There may be a major war the likes of which we have not yet seen. After which, Russia and/or the so-called "international community" may step in to bring peace and establish a permanent presence in the region. In any case, to finally settle the dispute over Artsakh one or two of the opposing sides needed to be weakened or placed under some degree of control. Couple of years ago Baku was due for some internal unrest. It didn't materialize. Being less prone to wanting "freedom" and "the good life" and much less hateful towards their state than we Armenians, Azeris seem to have not taken the bait. Moreover, Baku was smart enough to shutdown some Western propaganda outlets, crackdown on Western-funded civil society activists and organize serious lobbying efforts throughout Russia and the Western world. Azerbaijan therefore remained firmly dictatorial but politically stable, and Baku did its utmost best to make sure it did not give Moscow any reasons to conspire against it. Needless to say, Baku has also long held the favor of major Western/Globalist energy interests as well. I fear that currently Baku has the ear of not only the Western powers but also that of the Kremlin's.
By being politically pragmatic, and less prone to beg for handouts from the West, Baku has managed to preserve a sustained political presence in Moscow. By keeping a tight control over its society, and resisting oil price drops, Baku has shown politically stability, predictability and steadfastness. Also, thanks to its petrodollars, Baku's military keeps growing rapidly. As Yerevan foolishly continues signaling to Moscow that Armenia is ready to join forces with the West if need be (which all, including the West, knows is a silly fantasy and/or a bluff) Azeris are instead forging ahead and building solid relations with Russia and the West with only Artsakh in mind -
Baku hosts ‘Azerbaijan - Russia's only ally in Caucasus’ conference: https://www.azernews.az/nation/134184.html
As the reader can see, Baku has
had the political foresight to curb its political opposition and go to great lengths to lobby its case throughout
Russia and the Western world. Armenians, oblivious to the political world they live in as always, are primarily concerned about importing
Western and Globalist toxins into Armenia. As a terrible storm gathers over Artsakh, Armenians are recklessly obsessing over "corruption", "justice", "civil society" and the right to have a "voice" in politics. The thinking on the so-called Street is that a "Democratic" Armenia is a stronger Armenia. The opposite is in fact true, especially in a place like the south Caucasus, especially for a people like Armenians. Distracted by the dazzle of the Western world, Armenians gleefully continue neglecting lobbying efforts in Moscow, as well as in Tehran. Due to its shortsighted "complimentary politics", Armenia today is a country that does not enjoy the full faith and friendship of any major regional player, including that of its only strategic ally. This failure in international politics will be reflected primarily in the way the major powers involved in the region will treat Armenia's territorial claims on Artsakh. While the Armenian republic itself is secure to due its strategic alliance with Russia, Armenians however have failed to secure the future of Artsakh. Armenia today is clearly the more vulnerable party with regards to Artsakh. With the kind of political culture and mindset we have prevailing in Armenia today, when the inevitable war between Armenia and Azerbaijan happens, and it may happen at any time, Baku will clearly have the advantage over Yerevan. Simply put: The geopolitical tide may have somewhat changed in Baku's favor, while we Armenians continue obsessing over which oligarch stole what. Artsakh's future now seems murky. I see similar concerns from a high ranking general and a former political figure -
Գեներալ Նորատ Տեր-Գրիգորյանց․ Հայաստանի ղեկավարությունը չի կատարում իր ուղիղ պարտականությունները: https://news.am/arm/news/458208.html
«Նիկոլն ու Սերժը միասին էին ծրագրել հեղափոխությունը, փաստեր ու վիդեոներ կան». Ռոբերտ Սիմոնյան: http://bavnews.a
Alarmingly, since Nikol came into power, the signs from the battle-lines around Armenia and Artsakh are not encouraging to say the least. Azeri troops in Nakhijevan have advanced their positions and have put the village of Areni in their line-of-sight. This is a major strategic advantage for Baku as it puts one of the two main highway arteries that would be used to supply Artsakh with military resources under their direct line-of-fire. There have also been a number of military deaths on the border in recent weeks. Moreover, by all accounts, there is also a massive Azeri military buildup along Artsakh's border. All this, in the very short period of time since Nikol came to power. Perhaps Baku is sensing political weakness. Perhaps it's all part of the above noted international conspiracy against Artsakh. Whatever the case may be, the new regime in Yerevan is carrying on as if nothing of real importance is happening on Armenia's borders -
Following Armenian uprising, Azerbaijan’s saber rattling grows louder: https://eurasianet.org/s/following-armenian-uprising-azerbaijans-saber-rattling-grows-louder
Dugin: Azerbaijan - Russia's main strategic partner in Caucasus: https://www.azernews.az/nation/134185.html
Azerbaijan reports liberation of Gunnut village: http://www.eng.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/43414/
Aggravated Situation Around Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Exclave: https://jamestown.org/program/aggravated-situation-around-azerbaijans-nakhchivan-exclave/
Azerbaijan Continues to Maintain Military Build-Up Along Artsakh Line of Contact: http://asbarez.com/172746/azerbaijan-continues-to-maintain-military-build-up-along-artsakh-line-of-contact/
Azerbaijan doesn’t pull back heavy military build-up since April, says Artsakh: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/937309.html
Աղասի Ենոքյան. «Սահմանում վիճակը ոչ թե լարված է, այլ չափազանց լարված է, կուտակումները հսկայական են»: https://www.aravot.am/2018/06/28/967331/
From a tactical standpoint, the Azeri move in Nakhijevan could have been a trial run to gauge new regime's reaction. It nevertheless is a major strategic advance. Nikol's government has not yet said much about the matter. Thus far, the only thing the current regime seems to have done regarding Artsakh is to ban pro-Artsakh banners in Armenia -
«Ի՞նչ ես անում Արցախի համար» պաստառները կապամոնտաժվեն: http://panarmenian.net/arm/news/255988
What's more, the "Democracy" epidemic is also being made to reach Artsakh -
Ադրբեջանցի՛ն թող վախենա. հայկական հեղափոխության շունչը Արցախում: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ynnoly5BR84
It's worrying. I think Armenia is politically weak and vulnerable today. I think a major war is inevitable. I fear the results of such a war may not be to our liking, ultimately because we as a people (unlike our enemies) are more concerned about adopting Western values than actually protecting and building our homeland. My fear is that Nikol may have been brought into power to facilitate the settlement of the Artsakh dispute through major land concessions. But, I should add that there are other theories as well. Here is one, by none other than Alexander Dugin -
В России есть указание на сближение с Азербайджаном. Но вот армянское лобби: https://inosmi.ru/politic/20180605/242400966.html
According to this theory, Serj turned-over power to Nikol to sabotage a Moscow effort to force Yerevan to agree to land concessions. Sounds plausible, but it's highly improbable because such a theory casually assumes that Karen Karapetyan would have easily agreed to such concessions, in a parliament still controlled by the Republican Party nonetheless and in a country where the war veteran union yields a lot of power and influence. More unlikely is Alexander Dugin's indirect assumption that Nikol would refuse to go along with such land concessions. Either Alexander Dugin knows very little about Nikol or he is merely bluffing. If Serj wanted to turn-over power to someone that would resist land concessions, Nikol would in fact be the last person in Armenia. So, at least in this case, we need to take Alexander Dugin's words with a grain of salt. Besides, as his comments about the "Armenian lobby" in Moscow clearly suggests, Alexander Dugin may very well be spreading disinformation inside Azeri news media. The reality of the matter is that there is no "Armenian lobby" in Moscow. In any case, if there is any degree of truth in Alexander Dugin's theory, namely that Serj Sargsyan was able to sabotage Moscow's plan to force Yerevan into land concessions in Artsakh, it still does not bode well for the future, as it will mean that Moscow will inevitably resort to more aggressive tactics now that its plan has been subverted by Serj and Nikol. In a nutshell: If what Alexander Dugin is saying is true, we may see Moscow more involved on Baku's side going forward.
When it comes to Artsakh, I would like to point out that I personally have always been willing to entertain the thought of limited land concessions in return of official recognition and/or reunification with Armenia. My fear therefore is the depth/degree of concession, including the return of hundreds-of-thousands of Azeri refugees, that Nikol's regime may be willing to agree to. Again, I would like to remind the reader that the current regime is more-of-less a remaking of Levon Petrosyan's government. It's a possibility.
Remember my words: Nikol and his associates are the last people on earth to place emphasis on defending Artsakh's territorial integrity in case of a major war. What's more, it should be said that despite their carefully calibrated rhetoric on the matter, there is an unmistakable underlying current of anti-Artsakh sentiment throughout Nikol's core supporters. Mostly among themselves, but sometimes in public as well, they blame most of Armenia's problems on the conflict over Artsakh and on Artsakh-Armenians themselves, who they call "the Karabakh Clan". The new regime in Yerevan is fully capable of agreeing to major land concessions. In hindsight, I am now wondering if Serj's resignation was essentially meant to give Nikol, or his successor, the "honor" of agreeing to concessions at some point in the future.
When it comes to Artsakh, I would like to point out that I personally have always been willing to entertain the thought of limited land concessions in return of official recognition and/or reunification with Armenia. My fear therefore is the depth/degree of concession, including the return of hundreds-of-thousands of Azeri refugees, that Nikol's regime may be willing to agree to. Again, I would like to remind the reader that the current regime is more-of-less a remaking of Levon Petrosyan's government. It's a possibility.
Remember my words: Nikol and his associates are the last people on earth to place emphasis on defending Artsakh's territorial integrity in case of a major war. What's more, it should be said that despite their carefully calibrated rhetoric on the matter, there is an unmistakable underlying current of anti-Artsakh sentiment throughout Nikol's core supporters. Mostly among themselves, but sometimes in public as well, they blame most of Armenia's problems on the conflict over Artsakh and on Artsakh-Armenians themselves, who they call "the Karabakh Clan". The new regime in Yerevan is fully capable of agreeing to major land concessions. In hindsight, I am now wondering if Serj's resignation was essentially meant to give Nikol, or his successor, the "honor" of agreeing to concessions at some point in the future.
None of this however is to suggest that Nikol has to be Moscow's man or even that he is fully in on the agenda noted above. Simply put, Nikol is opportunist with a sharp wit and a fast mouth. Open doors for him, give him an opportunity and he'll do his thing. It's in his nature/character to do so. So, no need to recruit him one way or another. Serj Sargsyan, Armen Sargsyan and Karen Karapetyan on the other hand are another story. That said, even this theory of mine is indeed true, none of it is yet set in stone. Politics is fluid in nature. The situation in Yerevan can yet take many more twists and turns in the coming months and years. But, the major takeaway from the current political mess is the following: The relative stability Yerevan enjoyed in the past under the Republican Party (which was crucial for Artsakh in my opinion) has now been finally shattered. All of a sudden, the political fluidity and instability we see in Armenia today risks making it the weak side during future negotiations.
Now, putting all these theories aside, let's also be wise enough to understand that regardless of any conspiracies that may or may not be in play, the political mess we are seeing play-out in Yerevan today has the inherent potential to impact Armenia and Artsakh very negatively. So, conspiracy or not, orchestrated or not, what we see happening in Armenia will prove no good for Armenia and Artsakh in the long-term. In my opinion, Armenia's internal problems have just started. In real political terms, Armenia today is weaker than it was prior to its "Velvet Revolution". One way or another, I think Artsakh's final fate will be decided in the next few years, if not sooner. At the end of the day, the political mess we have in Armenia today is due to its 25-plus year old problem child called Democracy.
Democracy has
evolved into a belief system similar to ancient Christianity
There is somewhat of a surreal or suprnatural feel to all this.
It's as if we have been here before. It's as if ancient specters are
haunting us. It's as if the spirits of our failed ancestors are rising
from their graves and leading us into yet another unknown. History is
repeating. We are self-mutilating. We are once again opening the gates of our city to allow
the enemy in. We are once again ready to tear to pieces our old prince
in favor of someone we don't even know. We are once again
getting ready to cut-off the head of our Sparapet, so that we may live
in peace. The angry peasants are out in force, and they are ready to burn down
their village to save it from phantoms both real and perceived.
Collective hysteria has gripped the masses. Predators are smelling blood. It all feels preordained by forces beyond our comprehension.
It feels like the first century AD all over again. Tiridates I, an Armenian scion of Persian aristocracy, has just returned from his coronation in Rome and has used
Roman funds to build a Roman style place of worship, in which his royal court would continue worshiping
a Persian deity. The pagan temple of Garni thus became Armenia's first known expression of "complimentary politics". Armenians today are again building a new place of worship
with a new set of rules in the form of Democracy, but they have no choice but to continue
again worshiping Russian deities in it.
17
hundred
years ago Roman officials began looking at Christianity as an imperial tool of
influence
and conquest, very similar to how Western powers today treat Democracy. But, similar to how Armenians wholeheartedly adopted Christianity and took all its tenets quite
literally, modern Armenians have also wholeheartedly embraced Democracy and are taking its tenets quite
literally. Two
thousands years ago missionaries came to Armenia to bring Christianity.
Today, the modern manifestation of the ancient Christian missionaries are the pierced and tattooed Democracy activists that are pouring into Armenia from the West in an effort to convert backward Armenians to the ways of Democracy.
17 hundred years ago they came to help us Armenians come out of our backward ways - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hripsime
Today, they again come to help us Armenians come out of our backward ways - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5X5Vq_OSe0k
Looking at it purely from a geopolitical angle, the very early manifestation of Christianity in Armenia actually proved destructive for the country as it turned Persia, Armenia's natural ally for hundreds of years into a natural enemy. For centuries thereafter Armenia became an object of war and conflict between the East and West of the time. Christianity did however eventually save Armenia from the year 650 A.D. and onward. However, we may not be as luck this time around. The modern world's manifestation of Christianity, Democracy, with its belief system based on the tenets of multiculturalism, liberalism, feminism, homosexuality, minority rights, free trade, open borders, etc., will surely doom Armenia.
Because of our age-old desire to live like the Romans, but
also continue enjoying the protection of Persians, Armenia has once again become a laboratory for conflicting ideologies and a battlefield for
competing powers. All in all, the political mess we have in Armenia today is brought to us by its 25-plus year old problem child called Democracy. Democracy
means one of two things for all developing nations on earth today:
Subjugation by Anglo-American-Jews or perpetual sociopolitical unrest
every few years. What's more, Democracy today has become what
Catholicism/Christianity was in Europe a thousand years ago.
Democracy today has
evolved into a distinct belief system. It strongly
resembles ancient Catholicism: Just accept Democracy and you will save
yourselves, we are told. Democracy even has its very own Vatican - Washington DC - as well as a
multitude of martyrs and Crusaders around the world. What I am getting at is this:
Nations that refuse Democracy today are equal to nations that rejected the Vatican's version of God
a thousand years ago. The repercussions for rejecting the Catholic God back then, as it is with rejecting Democracy today, were terrible. The Vatican at the time was pushing its version of God and Christianity on third world
savages (i.e. the non-Christian world), essentially to control and exploit them.
When the savages in question refused the Vatican's belief/political system, they were
persecuted and subjected to wave after wave of missionaries, the
political activists of their time, or, war. No government today therefore wants to be seen as having
rejected God, so to speak. They therefore accept Democracy, but do so
superficially, just like Christian kings did a thousand years ago. All the "progressive"
European kingdoms at the time were gradually adopting Catholicism, but
were doing so mostly for political reasons (i.e. trying to establish
good relations with the Vatican). Today, Democracy is adopted by nations around the world to
establish good relations with Western powers. This
situation - nations around the world accepting Democracy at various
degrees of sincerity - is what we have in much of the world today.
In final analysis, Democracy is a weakness, not a strength. The precedence set by Nikol's
movement, namely that when you are not happy with the government you can
simply disregard the nation's laws and take to the streets, will prove
very painful for Armenia for generations to come. I want to remind my
reader that our
enemies in the region don't have these types of problems. We always look
down at Turks and Azeris for not being "Democratic" enough. It's like
looking down at them for not being self-destructive enough. We are so
delusional as a people that we don't realize that being undemocratic is
in fact our enemies' strength, not weakness. The Plutocratic West has
convinced our Street that Democracy is the only
way forward for Armenia. This belief in Western fairytales (like the one
that preceded it nearly two thousand years ago) is one of the reasons
why Armenia will
remain a small, poor and weak nation for well into the foreseeable
future. Democracy
does NOT exist. Democracy does NOT work. As long as Armenians are under the impression that Democracy indeed exists and that it's a good thing, and Armenians continue looking at the Western world for inspiration, Armenia will continue flirting with its demise.
Democracy, as promoted by
Western powers, is essentially designed to do one of two things: Either place
nations under Western/Globalist occupation (after which the occupied
country is depleted of all resources and the population is subjected to
indoctrination and social engineering) or keep such countries perpetually troubled every few
years during election time. If
our idiots ever woke up to realize any of this,
the nightmare we keep reliving over-and-over again for the past 25-plus years
would end overnight. We
are today repeating the same mistakes of our failed ancestors. If we
are destined to be stuck in a cycle, then are are doomed to repeat the
mistakes of our forefathers. If so, we will eventually ruin our
relations with Russia and Armenia will remain a lowly ball in a
geopolitical pinball machine; as it has been for much of its history.
Because of the age-old Armenian desire to live like Romans, Armenia has
once again become a laboratory for conflicting ideologies, and a
dangerous battlefield for competing powers. What's more, Armenia is once
again being turned into a battlefield between East and West. All in all, the political mess we have in Armenia today is due to its 25-plus year old problem child called Democracy.
Final thought
Armenian
politics may not be for the faint of heart. But I want to remind my reader the words of the great German philosopher, Friedrich
Nietzsche: “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” With this wisdom in mind, let's hope for the best. So, as long as Nikol's government makes sure to steer clear of all forms of Russophobia and attempts to deepen Russian-Armenian relation's, as it has already stated on several different occasions, Armenia may somehow benefit from recent political changes. Artsakh however is all together another story. While I hope recent events may prove beneficial to Armenia in the long-term, I
nevertheless believe that the seeds of political unrest has been sown
in the
country. Nikol and friends are the perfect candidates to see this agenda through. So, despite my best hopes, I still think Armenia is headed towards
very difficult times. The country will be tested in the coming years. My gut feeling is that had we shown political
foresight and the ability to unconditionally rally around our state
(like Turks and Azeris do with theirs), we would not be subjected to
this kind of
conspiracy and/or test. So, at the end of the day, it's our fault. We the people are responsible for all the bad (and good) that happens in the homeland. We Armenians deserved our Chobans in Armani suites, just as we now deserve our saint Nikol.
It is said that fish rots from the head. But that's not always the case, especially for a country like Armenia. Throughout the post-Soviet period, the kind of criminality, lawlessness and corruption that took place inside government circles also took place inside all layers of Armenian society. A honest look at us Armenians will show that we are generally speaking divided in two groups: Oligarchs and those who wish they were oligarchs. In societies around the world, the so-called Street is resigned to accepting that their political/financial elite is corrupt. They therefore for the most part simply mind their own business, and they work hard to ensure their living. Not so in Armenia.
The Armenian Street wants to either live like its elite or make its elite live like itself. In other words, if Armenian can't have absolute Capitalism, where they can run around trying to screw and swindle everybody that happens to come their way, they want absolute Socialism, where the state is expected to take care of all their needs. The Armenian Street is quite rotten. The top is merely a reflection of the bottom and vice versa.
Unlike European, Asian and south American nations, Armenians don't have very good work ethics. Generally speaking, Armenians only like working for themselves, and they like working as little as possible but make a lot of money. Moreover, the Armenian Street does not, at least not yet, understand what civic responsibility and political pragmatism means. These problems go back a long time. During Soviet times, the Black Market in Armenia (where Western goods and products like blue jeans, cigarettes, rock music, movies, pornography and chewing gum were traded for Soviet gold, fur and jewelry) was among the largest in the entire union. Embezzlement, theft, bribery and nepotism, all fundamentally anti-Communist practices, were the main economic factors in Soviet Armenia. At the end of the day, Armenians are too intelligent, too ambitious, too materialistic, too tribal and too egotistical to play by the rules or accept anything less than the good life. Not a good formula for nation-building.
It is also said that governments are a reflection of their people and that the people deserve the governments they have. So, if the previous government in Armenia was an accurate reflection if Armenia's Street, which it was, the Armenian Street today fully deserves the government it has. The "Armenian Street" is therefore fully responsible for all the good and bad that will eventually come out of the current regime.
That said, we need to at least find comfort in knowing that there has been a revolutionary change, not in government (much of the corruption in government as well as society will remain) but in perception of government; the belief that things are better. The Street is euphoric. The Street is hopeful. There is the perception that things are now better in the country. After many years of an information war against Armenia and its leadership, that in-itself is a very positive development. After all, we all know that for the Street, perception is reality. For a nation suffering from low morale, this is very good. It just needs to last to show positive results. So, the new regime in my opinion will be able to improve the image of the country at least in the minds of the Armenian Street. There will be the impression or rather the perception, at least for a while, that things are better and that Nikol is valiantly fighting corruption. The perception that all's well in the country may in-turn help curb the Armenian Street's urge to act self-destructive... at least for a while.
Ultimately, however, I have no doubt that Nikol's honeymoon with the Armenian Street will not last very long because Armenia's main problems - be it political, be it financial, be it economic - are problems that Nikol's regime cannot fix even if it really tried. Moreover, I find it strange that no one is talking about it, but Nikol has also started staffing governmental positions with relatives and longtime associates. So much for the professionalism the so-called "Street" was hoping for. But, since Nikol is not part of the "Karabakh Clan", all is well according to the "Street". My prediction is that Nikol will not be able to do much about high level corruption in the country, even if he genuinely tried. Giving and taking bribes, seeking to make a quick buck and always looking for shortcuts to the law is ingrained in the Armenian DNA. Whatever Nikol will accomplish in this regard will prove to be mere window dressing; nothing more than a show. Although I admit it's too early to tell, I am nevertheless not impressed at all with what the new regime in Yerevan has thus far done with regards to the so-called fighting against corruption. The only way I will be convinced of Nikol's sincerity with regards to fighting crime in Armenia is if he follows the steps of nations like Singapore and China and makes high level corruption in the country punishable by death; repatriates the tens-of-billions of dollars that are said to be placed in offshore accounts of corrupt officials and businessmen; breaks-up the nation's largest monopolies; and goes after the big name Chobans. I will finally be convinced that the country is indeed headed in the right direction if one or two of the country's most guilty are executed for their crimes against the state. Until that is done, arresting this or that low level (i.e. vulnerable) criminal will only be window dressing, and it will do little to cure the country's socioeconomic malaise.
And speaking of the country's sociopolitical malaise, I repeat: Even if Armenia's dreaded Oligarchs magically turned into benevolent angels overnight, Armenia would continue suffering from serious socioeconomic problems. Even if Nikol turned Armenia's wealthy Chobans into humanitarian philanthropists tonight, tomorrow he will still be faced with an stagnant economy, high unemployment, low wages, a landlocked and blockaded nation, a volatile geopolitical environment, and hundreds of rotted and ruined Soviet-era factories. Let's be mindful that the south Caucasus remains a very volatile battlefield between East and West; Armenia remains landlocked and blockaded in a Turkic/Islamic region of the world; the dispute over Artsakh remains unsolved and may explode at any moment; and Armenians remain among the world's most difficult people to rule over. So, when poverty rates remain high; when jobs remain scarce (and those that exist continue paying low wages); when citizens in all layers of society continue giving and taking bribes; when the rich continue getting richer; when the poor continue getting poorer; when young men continue losing their lives in increasing numbers on the border... the "Street" will begin looking for a new savior, and the vicious cycle will repeat. With what Nikol and Serj started on April 23, going forward, it promises to be a vicious cycle, where opportunistic politicians funded by this or that political interest from abroad provoke and incite the "Street" every few elections. The volatility of Democracy mixed with volatility of the south Caucasus and the volatility of Armenian traits, it promises not to be a pretty sight for generations to come.
Again, I have absolutely no fears about the future of Russian-Armenian relations, at least well into the foreseeable future. As I have said, the Kremlin has Armenia by the throat and by the balls. Armenia has no choice but to remain within the Russian orbit, at least for the foreseeable future. And Russia, for its part, will have no choice but to look at Armenia as a strategic foothold in a very important region on its vulnerable southern border, at least for the foreseeable future. Again, putting Artsakh aside, my main fear for the foreseeable future is civilizational. With the current political climate in the country, Armenia will continue suffering periodic political unrest; continue importing toxic influences from the West; and continue enslaving the country to Western money lenders like never before. Slowly, the centuries old instinct that has kept Armenia close to Russia will gradually dissipate. If this happens, it will prove fatal.
Just like how zealously our forefathers adopted Christianity, I fear future generations will similarly latch on to Westernization, Globalism and Liberalism - all to the detriment of Armenia. Actually, we already see the process I am referring to. As noted above, many of Nikol's ministerial appointments have been extremely worrying. Knowing who Nikol is, it was fully expected. We suddenly have a more Globalist oriented, West-leaning and less professional government in Yerevan, but the feeling on the "Street" is that everything is well. That was also expected. In fact, that's the power of perception. Nothing of real value can be expected from the masses. In any case, all this leads me to believe that despite our best hopes and wishes, Nikol's government will sooner or later fail.
I would like to remind my reader that I disliked Armenia's wealthy Chobans just as much as, if not more, than anybody else. But, I am not about to
sing Nikol's praise now just because I disliked them. I simply don't see Nikol and friends as better replacements. In fact, in the big picture, I would
rather have backward Chobans at the helm than Westernized and/or Globalized degenerates Nikol has
populated the government with. If Nikol's regime did not fear Moscow, I have no doubt that it
would turn Armenia into a free playground for neo-Bolsheviks and Anglo-American-Jews overnight. In my humble opinion, the
previous political landscape as bad for the short-term, but held some promises for the long-term.
The current political landscape may prove beneficial for the short-term, but promises to be bad for the
long-term. With the previous regime, Armenia was in a dark tunnel but light was beginning to be seen at the end of it. Today, Armenia seems to be in the light of day,
but may be fast heading into a dark tunnel.
Unfortunately, Armenia today faces a choice between Western-funded mercenaries and Chobans in Armani suites. It's essentially a choice between the Nemets Rubos, Dodi Gagos and Lfik Samos and Monsanto, USAID, and IMF. Sadly, the country for now has no alternative to the aforementioned. So, my fellow Armenians, pick your poison. As much as I hate to say it, I personally think that the old regime posed a less long-term threat to the country then what we have today.
At the end of the day, it's not about about Nikol or Serj, it's not even about Russia or the West, it's about the long-term health and well-being of the Armenian state and the preservation of the traditional nation-state and indigenous cultures. As everyone knows here, my main purpose with this blog is to encourage the deepening of Armenia's strategic ties with a natural ally like Russia for the long-term betterment of Armenia. I see the Russian nations as the word's last front against Globalization, Western imperialism, Pan-Turkism, Islamic expansionism and Zionism. I also see the Russian nation as the last hope for the traditional nation-state and apostolic Christianity. If Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is able to foster better/deeper Russian-Armenian ties and curb Armenia's exposure to Western toxins, then I wouldn't care if Nikol paraded around 26 Baghramyan Street with an American flag print speedos. What I am essentially saying is that if the new prime minister can develop better relations with Russia (and Iran), protect Artsakh's territorial integrity with all of Armenia's diplomatic and military might, become the spark to move Armenia's economy forward at a faster pace in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union and finally curb Armenia's dangerous exposure to Western toxins such as the IMF, NED, USAID, George Soros and Monsanto, I am fully willing to accept him as my leader and wish him well in all his endeavors.
The aforementioned two points - closer Russian-Armenian relations and limiting Armenia's exposure to Westernization and Globalization - are strategically important tasks to accomplish for the country's long-term health. The former is a geostrategic matter. The latter is a civilizational matter. Both however should given top priority in Yerevan. In any case, as I already said, I am not going to start praising Nikol for simply saying the right things. I am going to wait and see what he and his team will be doing in the coming months and years. Nevertheless, as of now, it looks as if a group of people with Globalist/neo-Bolshevik aspirations have taken control in Yerevan and ministerial positions are being staffed by Western-funded individuals - all apparently with Moscow's blessing. This last point is my main concern.
In final analysis, if Nikol's rise to power happened against Moscow's wishes, the future does not look too good for Armenia. And if what happened was in-line with Moscow's wishes, the future again may not look too good. Something smells rotten in Yerevan. I repeat: Nikol Pashinyan is a neo-Bolshevik opportunist who managed to exploit the "Armenian Street's" political illiteracy and hatred toward its leadership. And he was helped in this regard by unseen hands. Nothing good, at least in the long-term, will come out of it. But, the "Armenian Street" is happy, and that's what counts according to the sacred tenets of Democracy. At the end of the day, if we Armenians (rulers and subjects alike, native and Diasporan alike) prove incapable of governing ourselves in an efficient and non-destructive manner, I rather have Ivan and Natasha come in and run the show for us. I have no doubt they would do a better job.
We as a people don't seem mature or developed enough yet and the south Caucasus is simply not safe or civilized enough for the kind of "Democratic" self-mutilation and self-flagellation we continue seeing in Armenia for the past 25-plus years. The most important thing for Armenia is political stability, continuity and predictability. It was not a good idea to give the emotional and ignorant masses the belief that it's powerful and knows what it's doing. This is a very dangerous road to be on, especially because we do not yet have well established institutions of government, especially because we are surrounded by predators, especially because we don't know what are the real intent of the political actors behind-the-scenes. With the kind of political culture taking root in Armenia today, foreign-backed individuals would be able to change the political vector of the country every few years. This will prove utterly destructive. We simply can't have "regime changes" every few election cycle just because another charismatic street leader decides he wants to change the political system again via proven street methods, and cleverly uses foreign assistance to tap into the Street's grievances. Let's be wise enough to recognize that the so-called Street, especially in Armenia, and especially in a place like the south Caucasus, will always have grievances. Finally, we need to recognize that Democracy, which by nature is the rule of the ignorant masses, is a bumpy road to unrest, instability and weakness. A politically unstable Armenia is a weak Armenia, and a weak Armenia equals a weak Artsakh.
Unfortunately, Armenia today faces a choice between Western-funded mercenaries and Chobans in Armani suites. It's essentially a choice between the Nemets Rubos, Dodi Gagos and Lfik Samos and Monsanto, USAID, and IMF. Sadly, the country for now has no alternative to the aforementioned. So, my fellow Armenians, pick your poison. As much as I hate to say it, I personally think that the old regime posed a less long-term threat to the country then what we have today.
At the end of the day, it's not about about Nikol or Serj, it's not even about Russia or the West, it's about the long-term health and well-being of the Armenian state and the preservation of the traditional nation-state and indigenous cultures. As everyone knows here, my main purpose with this blog is to encourage the deepening of Armenia's strategic ties with a natural ally like Russia for the long-term betterment of Armenia. I see the Russian nations as the word's last front against Globalization, Western imperialism, Pan-Turkism, Islamic expansionism and Zionism. I also see the Russian nation as the last hope for the traditional nation-state and apostolic Christianity. If Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is able to foster better/deeper Russian-Armenian ties and curb Armenia's exposure to Western toxins, then I wouldn't care if Nikol paraded around 26 Baghramyan Street with an American flag print speedos. What I am essentially saying is that if the new prime minister can develop better relations with Russia (and Iran), protect Artsakh's territorial integrity with all of Armenia's diplomatic and military might, become the spark to move Armenia's economy forward at a faster pace in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union and finally curb Armenia's dangerous exposure to Western toxins such as the IMF, NED, USAID, George Soros and Monsanto, I am fully willing to accept him as my leader and wish him well in all his endeavors.
The aforementioned two points - closer Russian-Armenian relations and limiting Armenia's exposure to Westernization and Globalization - are strategically important tasks to accomplish for the country's long-term health. The former is a geostrategic matter. The latter is a civilizational matter. Both however should given top priority in Yerevan. In any case, as I already said, I am not going to start praising Nikol for simply saying the right things. I am going to wait and see what he and his team will be doing in the coming months and years. Nevertheless, as of now, it looks as if a group of people with Globalist/neo-Bolshevik aspirations have taken control in Yerevan and ministerial positions are being staffed by Western-funded individuals - all apparently with Moscow's blessing. This last point is my main concern.
In final analysis, if Nikol's rise to power happened against Moscow's wishes, the future does not look too good for Armenia. And if what happened was in-line with Moscow's wishes, the future again may not look too good. Something smells rotten in Yerevan. I repeat: Nikol Pashinyan is a neo-Bolshevik opportunist who managed to exploit the "Armenian Street's" political illiteracy and hatred toward its leadership. And he was helped in this regard by unseen hands. Nothing good, at least in the long-term, will come out of it. But, the "Armenian Street" is happy, and that's what counts according to the sacred tenets of Democracy. At the end of the day, if we Armenians (rulers and subjects alike, native and Diasporan alike) prove incapable of governing ourselves in an efficient and non-destructive manner, I rather have Ivan and Natasha come in and run the show for us. I have no doubt they would do a better job.
We as a people don't seem mature or developed enough yet and the south Caucasus is simply not safe or civilized enough for the kind of "Democratic" self-mutilation and self-flagellation we continue seeing in Armenia for the past 25-plus years. The most important thing for Armenia is political stability, continuity and predictability. It was not a good idea to give the emotional and ignorant masses the belief that it's powerful and knows what it's doing. This is a very dangerous road to be on, especially because we do not yet have well established institutions of government, especially because we are surrounded by predators, especially because we don't know what are the real intent of the political actors behind-the-scenes. With the kind of political culture taking root in Armenia today, foreign-backed individuals would be able to change the political vector of the country every few years. This will prove utterly destructive. We simply can't have "regime changes" every few election cycle just because another charismatic street leader decides he wants to change the political system again via proven street methods, and cleverly uses foreign assistance to tap into the Street's grievances. Let's be wise enough to recognize that the so-called Street, especially in Armenia, and especially in a place like the south Caucasus, will always have grievances. Finally, we need to recognize that Democracy, which by nature is the rule of the ignorant masses, is a bumpy road to unrest, instability and weakness. A politically unstable Armenia is a weak Armenia, and a weak Armenia equals a weak Artsakh.
It's
been a surreal and worrying time in Armenia. We have
all been overwhelmed with feelings and emotions. We have all expressed
our concerns, fears and hopes. We have all said all that needs to be
said, and then some. Now, we have no choice but to move on. What's done is done. Armenians will be Armenians. Let's recall once more Friedrich
Nietzsche's wisdom, “that which does not kill us, makes us stronger.”
If we Armenians don't manage to kill Armenia with our volatile emotions and
political illiteracy, perhaps we'll make her better one day. So, at least for now, we
need to put aside our
political/ideological differences and biases and simply accept the fact that a new
reality has descended upon our homeland, even if we are opposed to it
from political, ideological and civilizational standpoint. Despite what we think of them, we now have a new regime in Armenia. We have a new reality on the ground. We therefore have no choice but to accept
it. At some level, this is indeed a new beginning for the country. The country
is entering a new period. It's a chance to at least try to make things better. We have no choice now but to hope for the best. But, we also need to be realistic enough not to have high expectations and prepare for the worst. Difficult times may be ahead of us. We need to prepare. God bless our homeland. Lets hope that Armenia is able to safely weather whatever the future brings.
Arevordi,
Summer, 2018
***
The Nation: Armenia’s Future Hangs in the Balance
New Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s road to healing the unequal and divided country will be long and difficult
In May 8, 2018, one day before Armenians observed Victory Day, Yerevan once again erupted in jubilation. Opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan had just been officially elected Armenia’s 15th prime minister by the country’s National Assembly, with 59 votes in favor and 42 votes against. The newly elected PM was confirmed by Armenian President Armen Sarkissian and immediately received warm congratulations from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili. He also spoke on the phone
with Putin personally. This was a striking change of fortune from a
week earlier, when the revolutionary leader failed to secure the
premiership on May 1, due to the continued efforts by the ruling Republican Party to obstruct such a scenario.
Only one month ago, the prime ministership of Pashinyan would have seemed impossible. The political machine of the Republican Party still dominated Armenian politics, as it had since the late 1990s. It was the fateful decision of Armenia’s then-exiting President Serzh Sargsyan to remain on as PM that prompted Pashinyan to travel throughout Armenia on foot. Supported by his wife, Anna Hakobyan, he and others walked together in protest, from Gyumri to Yerevan. This “Take a Step” initiative signaled the start of the nonviolent April Revolution that culminated in his ascent to the prime minister’s office.
However, the drama has only just begun. Armenia faces many challenges. First among them is political reconciliation. Pashinyan has sought to “close the chapter of hatred” in Armenian politics, and it is now time for the various political forces in the country to come together for the common good. This process is absolutely essential for the new PM as he turns to governance and as he pursues the first order of business: reforming electoral law to ensure free and fair elections. In this regard, there are individuals from the former ruling party, such as the outgoing PM Karen Karapetyan, who could help Pashinyan. Karapetyan’s governing experience, his political and business ties with Russia, and his own impulses for reform are potential assets for the incoming Armenian government. Significantly, as he stepped down from office, the former PM was among the first to extend his congratulations to Pashinyan.
Another, more long-term concern for any future Armenian government is to address the country’s long-standing socioeconomic problems, a process that will likely begin after new parliamentary elections, following electoral reform. Although the revolution was immediately prompted by Sargsyan’s decision to become prime minister, the socioeconomic question was squarely at the heart of it. This question is rooted in the dissolution of the USSR, the collapse of the Soviet welfare system, and the privatization of the Armenian economy in the 1990s. Entire sectors of Armenia’s economic life are monopolized by oligarchs with monikers like Lfik Samo, who act with impunity. Jobs, once plentiful in the Soviet era, are now difficult to find, causing many to seek work abroad, primarily in Russia. Poverty throughout the country remains a major challenge.
Indeed, a striking element of the April Revolution in Armenia was its social consciousness. Most commentators have already observed that the revolution differed from the “color” revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia in that the protest leaders distanced themselves from anti-Russian rhetoric. However, it also differed in the way that social concerns—poverty, jobs, inequality—were at the forefront of the movement. During the protests, one image floating around social media among Armenian activists showed a picture of Armenian children in a rural village living in abject poverty, contrasted with a picture of the ruling elite at an elaborate dinner party, sipping champagne. It was a scene reminiscent of a Victor Hugo novel.
Considering this context, the April Revolution inspired much hope among Armenians from all parts of the country and from all social classes. Its popular leader, Pashinyan, is regarded as a man of the people, not unlike Aleksandr Myasnikyan, the Armenian revolutionary who oversaw the rebuilding of Soviet Armenia in the 1920s. However, as the revolutionary civic activist and father of four exchanges his fatigues and “Dukhov” cap for a suit and the prime minister’s office, the question among Armenians quickly becomes: “Can he deliver?”
If he secures success in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, what will be his socioeconomic agenda for the country? Will he take the tired neoliberal approach as pursued by the “color revolution” governments in Ukraine and Georgia? Or will he strive for a new path in the post-Soviet space—a fair and equitable social-democratic policy (effectively a “New Deal”) for the Armenian people? It is worth noting that even if Pashinyan, or any future Armenian leader, pursues the latter option, change will not happen overnight.
However, for now, Armenia looks toward the future with a cautious optimism, tempered by a pragmatic realism. The April Revolution has given the country a new sense of hope, perhaps best expressed by the revolutionary poet Yeghishe Charents, the Armenian counterpart to Russia’s Vladimir Mayakovsky. Reflecting on his hopes for Soviet Armenia in 1921, he wrote: Like a dagger pulled out of its case the future rises, hard, sharp, and ablaze with sun, never to enter its old dusty place, never to be buried in its old sheath of days.
Only one month ago, the prime ministership of Pashinyan would have seemed impossible. The political machine of the Republican Party still dominated Armenian politics, as it had since the late 1990s. It was the fateful decision of Armenia’s then-exiting President Serzh Sargsyan to remain on as PM that prompted Pashinyan to travel throughout Armenia on foot. Supported by his wife, Anna Hakobyan, he and others walked together in protest, from Gyumri to Yerevan. This “Take a Step” initiative signaled the start of the nonviolent April Revolution that culminated in his ascent to the prime minister’s office.
However, the drama has only just begun. Armenia faces many challenges. First among them is political reconciliation. Pashinyan has sought to “close the chapter of hatred” in Armenian politics, and it is now time for the various political forces in the country to come together for the common good. This process is absolutely essential for the new PM as he turns to governance and as he pursues the first order of business: reforming electoral law to ensure free and fair elections. In this regard, there are individuals from the former ruling party, such as the outgoing PM Karen Karapetyan, who could help Pashinyan. Karapetyan’s governing experience, his political and business ties with Russia, and his own impulses for reform are potential assets for the incoming Armenian government. Significantly, as he stepped down from office, the former PM was among the first to extend his congratulations to Pashinyan.
Another, more long-term concern for any future Armenian government is to address the country’s long-standing socioeconomic problems, a process that will likely begin after new parliamentary elections, following electoral reform. Although the revolution was immediately prompted by Sargsyan’s decision to become prime minister, the socioeconomic question was squarely at the heart of it. This question is rooted in the dissolution of the USSR, the collapse of the Soviet welfare system, and the privatization of the Armenian economy in the 1990s. Entire sectors of Armenia’s economic life are monopolized by oligarchs with monikers like Lfik Samo, who act with impunity. Jobs, once plentiful in the Soviet era, are now difficult to find, causing many to seek work abroad, primarily in Russia. Poverty throughout the country remains a major challenge.
Indeed, a striking element of the April Revolution in Armenia was its social consciousness. Most commentators have already observed that the revolution differed from the “color” revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia in that the protest leaders distanced themselves from anti-Russian rhetoric. However, it also differed in the way that social concerns—poverty, jobs, inequality—were at the forefront of the movement. During the protests, one image floating around social media among Armenian activists showed a picture of Armenian children in a rural village living in abject poverty, contrasted with a picture of the ruling elite at an elaborate dinner party, sipping champagne. It was a scene reminiscent of a Victor Hugo novel.
Considering this context, the April Revolution inspired much hope among Armenians from all parts of the country and from all social classes. Its popular leader, Pashinyan, is regarded as a man of the people, not unlike Aleksandr Myasnikyan, the Armenian revolutionary who oversaw the rebuilding of Soviet Armenia in the 1920s. However, as the revolutionary civic activist and father of four exchanges his fatigues and “Dukhov” cap for a suit and the prime minister’s office, the question among Armenians quickly becomes: “Can he deliver?”
If he secures success in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, what will be his socioeconomic agenda for the country? Will he take the tired neoliberal approach as pursued by the “color revolution” governments in Ukraine and Georgia? Or will he strive for a new path in the post-Soviet space—a fair and equitable social-democratic policy (effectively a “New Deal”) for the Armenian people? It is worth noting that even if Pashinyan, or any future Armenian leader, pursues the latter option, change will not happen overnight.
However, for now, Armenia looks toward the future with a cautious optimism, tempered by a pragmatic realism. The April Revolution has given the country a new sense of hope, perhaps best expressed by the revolutionary poet Yeghishe Charents, the Armenian counterpart to Russia’s Vladimir Mayakovsky. Reflecting on his hopes for Soviet Armenia in 1921, he wrote: Like a dagger pulled out of its case the future rises, hard, sharp, and ablaze with sun, never to enter its old dusty place, never to be buried in its old sheath of days.
Source: https://www.thenation.com/article/armenias-future-hangs-in-the-balance/
Russian International Affairs Counsil: Russia–Armenia Relations and the April Revolution
Starting in April, 2018, Armenia witnessed a remarkable political revolution, prompted by Serzh Sargsyan’s attempt to remain in office by becoming the country’s Prime Minister. As massive crowds packed Yerevan’s Republic Square, the veteran Armenian politician ultimately bowed to popular pressure and stepped aside on April 23. The second phase of the April Revolution saw the ascendancy of protest leader Nikol Pashinyan to the Prime Minister’s office. Pashinyan’s proposed electoral reform promises to pave the way for a more competitive political system in Armenia, breaking the monopoly of the ruling Republican Party, which has dominated Armenian politics since the late 1990s.
Even more remarkable was the lack of any foreign involvement in the April Revolution. There were no “little green men” in the Ararat valley, nor was America’s Victoria Nuland on hand to pass out cookies on Republic Square. In reality, the involvement of United States was nonexistent, while the role of Russia was minimal, although not insignificant. In contrast to the reaction to the Electric Yerevan protests in 2015, there was no rush in the Russian media or among Russian political elites to draw parallels with the Ukrainian Maidan or the “color revolutions.” Instead, Moscow was cautious and pragmatic, emphasizing the necessity of a legal transition of power. Publicly, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova even supported the demonstrators, writing “Armenia, Russia is always with you!”
Two-sided nature of the Russia-Armenia relations
The Russia-Armenia relationship is two-sided. For Armenia, Russia means protection from neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkey. For Russia, Armenia represents an important ally in the Caucasus, a region critical to Russian security concerns. Therefore, Russia observed the recent developments in Armenia very closely. Behind the scenes, Russian officials were in contact with both sides in order to gain a clear understanding of the events. According to protest leader Armen Grigoryan and certain unnamed sources, the opposition emphasized to Russian officials that the protest was strictly domestic and was not directed in any way against Russia. This message was further emphasized by Pashinyan to the delegation of Russian Duma deputies who visited Yerevan. Not only were Russia-Armenia relations under no threat, but they would be “deepened” should Pashinyan become Prime Minister. The protest leaders also made an effort to ensure that no EU or American flags were flown during the Armenian protest.
Russian officials were also in contact with representative of the Armenian government and the ruling party. In the early days of the protest, it became clear to Moscow that Serzh Sargsyan had no political future. His decision to remain in power was a major misstep in the Armenian context, and therefore supporting him would be a liability for the Russian side. However, in terms of his successor, Moscow was initially more inclined to support acting Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan. A reform-minded politician, Karapetyan governed Armenia from the Prime Minister post effectively for a year and a half, although the Republican Party machine prevented him from making major changes. The former chief executive of ArmRosGazprom, he also has good business and political contacts with Russia, including with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan (no relation to Karen). Therefore, he represented both stability and change to Moscow.
However, it soon became clear that the protestors in Yerevan wanted to abolish the ruling Republican Party machine entirely. Although Sargsyan’s bid to stay in power served as the immediate motivation for the protests, the causes – chiefly jobs and economic inequality – were much deeper. Fundamental changes were required to remedy them. In this case, Pashinyan’s bid, to both become interim Prime Minister and to reform the electoral laws, represented a better alternative for the demonstrators. Gradual reform of the existing system was no longer a tenable option. Therefore, Moscow remained neutral, while Karapetyan rejected the offer to become the Prime Minister candidate of the Republican Party, leaving the ruling party with no candidate to nominate.
Putin-Pashinyan personal chemistry
The situation was reinforced by Pashinyan’s meeting with the Duma MPs on April 29, which cleared the way for his eventual victory on May 8. Notably, after Pashinyan’s election as Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin was one of the first political leaders to congratulate him. Later, in a phone conversation with Putin, Pashinyan exchanged greetings with him on the occasion of Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Notably, Pashinyan’s grandfather and namesake, Nikolai, fought in the Red Army and died in the war. The new Armenian PM also reaffirmed Armenia’s commitment to the Eurasian Economic Union, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, within the context of the Eurasian Economic Union, he may push for a more democratic and egalitarian relationship among the member states to ensure that smaller republics, like Armenia, will have more of a say in determining the policy of the union.
On May 14, Pashinyan and Putin met in Sochi where they had very positive and constructive talks. In the meeting, Putin hailed Armenia as a “close ally and partner in the region.” For his part, Pashinyan assured Putin that “there is a consensus in Armenia: no one has ever questioned the strategic importance of the Armenian-Russian relations, and I think it will not be questioned ahead.” He also met with Eurasian Union Chairman and former Armenian PM Tigran Sargsyan and held a rally with the Armenian community of Sochi.
Why Armenia’s opposition shied away from anti-Russian rhetoric
While Russia exercised incredible restraint in reaction to the April Revolution, the leaders of the revolt also learned valuable lessons about Russia-Armenia relations and the potentially adverse impact of their past anti-Russian statements. Given the extraordinary importance of the Russia-Armenia relationship, most Armenian politicians across party lines traditionally understood that Russophobia was counter-productive for the country. However, in recent years, some Armenian opposition leaders, taking cues from developments in Ukraine and Georgia, began to incorporate such discourse into their attacks on the government. Although Pashinyan has never been known to be exceptionally anti-Russian, even he adopted this position in his criticism of the Eurasian Economic Union.
In one way, anti-Russian rhetoric was useful for both the Armenian government and the opposition, to alert Russia that it could not take Armenia for granted. However, the April Revolution demonstrated that Armenian Russophobia could also be fatal for the opposition. Amid their stunning success, it soon became clear that anti-Russian policy was in fact hindering their far more important objectives (e.g., challenging the Republican Party monopoly). Consequently, Pashinyan moved quickly to reassure the Russian press and the Russian political elite that the revolution was not directed in any way against Moscow.
Meanwhile intending to capitalize on Pashinyan’s past remarks, the ruling party attempted to paint the revolutionary leader as a reckless Russophobe for both Russian observers and Armenia’s domestic audience. In the end, they failed to convince these two audiences, both of whom gave Pashinyan the benefit of the doubt. However, it was a close call for Pashinyan and it clearly illustrated the pitfalls of unnecessary anti-Russian bluster in Armenia.
Alternative path
Not only is anti-Russian discourse counter-productive in terms of its immediate political impact, but also in terms of its broader relevance. The April Revolution in Armenia has regional and even global significance that the Rose or Orange Revolutions or the Maidan would never attain since they allowed themselves to be blinded by the allure of geopolitics and national chauvinism. Shifting away from the geopolitical context, the revolution in Armenia presents an alternative path for the post-Soviet states. Instead of excluding Russia and casting it as an “eternal enemy,” why not include it in broader regional discussions about democracy, economic justice, and state-building?
Although each former Soviet republic is unique, they all share broadly similar socioeconomic problems as well as the common historical and cultural experiences of Imperial Russia and the USSR. In an age of globalization, these commonalities are the foundation for greater regional cooperation. Therefore, maintaining broad transnational cultural and economic connections across the post-Soviet space is an asset for all. The April Revolution in Armenia is significant as is a civic movement that realizes such potential.
Source: http://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/russia-armenia-relations-and-the-april-revolution/
Ararat Institute: Analysis of Armenia's Velvet Revolution
Summary:
On April 23, 2018 majority of people in Armenia and thousands of compatriots abroad celebrated nonviolent, velvet revolution in the country which lead to the resignation of the ex-President Serj Sarksyan from recently acquired position of Armenia’s Prime Minister. Days after the resignation of Armenia’s PM protest demonstrations in Armenia continue as people demand resignation of the entire ruling government under the leadership of the Republican Party of Armenia, installment of an interim government of national accord and interim Prime Minister, opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan, and the beginning of new parliamentary elections in the country soon afterwards. At this point it is anyone’ s guess what may happen in Armenia next. Although the security situation on Armenia’s borders is not considered critical yet despite large accumulations of Azerbaijani military personnel and hardware on the LoC in the past few days, prolonged uncertainty in the country may embolden Azerbaijan resume its war against Republics of Armenia and Artsakh at any time.
Background:
For more than ten days preceding the resignation of Serj Sarksyan tens of thousands of Armenians engaged in peaceful demonstrations at the Republic Square in Yerevan and other towns and villages throughout Armenia by carrying out acts of civil disobedience and constant street rallies. Despite hundreds of people getting arrested, including Nikol Pashinyan and other protest leaders a few days ago, demonstrators persevered as more people joined them in the process, including war veterans of Four Day War, soldiers from nearby military garrisons and clergymen. A number of cabinet members have resigned within the past few days while two political parties that were part of the coalition government, ARF and Prosperous Armenia exited from the coalition and joined the protestors on the streets of Armenia. Fortunately for everyone involved, despite occasional scuffles that erupted between protesters and police, as well as between protesters and minority supporters of the ruling regime at different times throughout Armenia the protest demonstrations remained peaceful.
In the meantime, Armenia’s National Security Service conducted special operation which led to arrests of several individuals accused of planning to carry out numerous anti-government terrorist attacks throughout the country using remotely controlled IEDs. Large quantities of explosive materials, ammunition and weapons were confiscated as well. The incident is still under investigation as alleged terrorists are being interrogated for more information. Foreign media on the other hand, until recently was largely mute about the events taking place in Armenia. Only after the arrest of protest leaders and the resignation of Armenia’s PM that followed the “velvet revolution” in Armenia received a global coverage by leading American, Russian and European media outlets; foreign diplomatic missions in Armenia struggled to come up with a proper assessment of events taking place in the country and only few days ago made public announcements welcoming the aspirations of Armenian people for change and commending protesters for exercising their constitutional rights to free speech and free assembly through non-violent means of civil disobedience.
Analysis:
It is no secret that the ruling government of Armenia under the leadership of the Republican Party of Armenia doesn’t enjoy the support of the majority of Armenia’s citizens. The Armenian public both at home and abroad accuses them of cultivating a culture of corruption, kleptocracy and mismanagement of economy. Government ministers are viewed as incompetent to solve present day problems and often unwilling to do so due to their own vested interests serviced by the present state of affairs. A history of flawed elections both presidential and parliamentary where people’s voices were largely suppressed or manipulated to their own advantage are tainting the credibility of the RPA. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating on the streets of Armenia demand the resignation of the entire government and even banning RPA from playing any role in the future government of Armenia. Resignations of a few people used as scapegoats to deflect public anger do not suffice at this point. The entire government backed by local oligarchs and certain criminal elements is under public pressure to relinquish its place to the new generation of leaders represented by Nikol Pashinyan and others.
Arguably, the resignation of Serj Sarkisyan as the PM of Armenia can be attributed to many factors. However, there are several factors that need to be taken into consideration more than others. The first factor to consider is the indirect role of Armenia’s military which “allowed” its members to join opposition rallies in Yerevan. Armenia’s military is the most esteem institution in the country that enjoys the utmost respect and support of ordinary citizens and Armenian diaspora. As the guarantor of Armenia’s security, it is on the minds and in the hearts of all Armenians around the world. Therefore, when hundreds of soldiers and war veterans joined the ranks of marching protestors on the streets of Armenia the fate of Serj Sarkisian’s was arguable sealed. As a former war veteran himself who has held multiple high-level security positions in the Armenian military and national security establishment before becoming the President of Armenia and Commander in Chief, Serj Sarkisyan couldn’t ignore the fact that he no longer enjoyed the support of his brothers-in-arms. The causes for displeasure with Sarkisyan’s regime could be attributed to the mismanagement of military resources and incompetence of its leaders for the past twenty-four years which lead to large number of casualties and loss of small patches of territory along the LoC during the Four Day War of 2016.
The second factor to consider is the indirect role of Armenian clergy. Although both leaders of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Garegin II the supreme head of the Armenian Apostolic Church and Aram I of the Catholicosate of the Great House of Cilicia issued non-partisan public declarations encouraging both sides of the conflict to stay calm and work together towards finding peaceful resolutions of public grievances a number of clergymen joined the protesters as they marched at the forefront of demonstrators thus in a way co-leading the opposition against the ruling regime. The Armenian church is one of the pillars of Armenian statehood and an essential component of the Armenian nation that played a pivotal role in the Battle of Sardarbad (1918), Artsakh Liberation Movement (1988-1994) and during Four Day War. Thus, the significance of clergy appearing among the protesters and in someway leading people during rallies could have not been lost on Serj Sarkisyan. In light of the fact that the majority of Armenia’s citizens and the Armenian diaspora abroad associate themselves with the Armenian Apostolic Church, loss of their trust towards the government and the Republican Party of Armenia led by Serj Sarkisyan could have not been ignored.
The third factor to consider is the role of Armenian diaspora. As opposition rallies took place throughout Armenia similar opposition rallies took place in Armenian communities around the world, particularly in France, US and Russia. The global Armenian diaspora could be described as the third pillar of the Armenian national identity and statehood. Since 1988, billions of dollars’ worth of humanitarian aid and business projects were implemented in Armenia. Almost every Armenian community that has a capacity to organize itself and fundraise has done a charity project in Armenia, particularly in Artsakh or is in the process of implementing one by itself or in conjunction with others. A number of Armenian businesses particularly those specialized in IT field have either opened branches in Armenia or moved their entire businesses to Armenia. Despite mixed results and significant blame (for failure of multiple business projects) directed towards the ruling government in Armenia, there are still many diasporan Armenians who are continuing to invest in their native homeland. While doing business in Armenia many have reportedly encountered the invisible “red tape” and/or other problems that they didn’t anticipate to deal with. As such, the fate of diaspora Armenians towards the ruling government began to fade and more of them began to side with the opposition.
The fourth factor to consider is the role of foreign players in Armenia’s “velvet revolution”. Surprisingly all foreign players in Armenia, Russia: US and Europe at first ignored the rallies, then expressed support for peaceful expression of public’s will and encouraged both sides to find peaceful solution to political crisis in Armenia. Days later, despite balanced statements by Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs a number of Russian media outlets began painting the events in Armenia as another “color revolution” similar to Ukraine’s Maidan which somehow threatened Russian strategic national interests in the region. Such claims are certainly laughable considering that each country develops its national interests based on the strength and size of one’s economy, and the geographic location of their country. Considering that Russia dominates Armenia’s economy and its national security orientation due to threats emanating from aggressive and anti-Armenian policies of Azerbaijan and Turkey, it is inconceivable to imagine that any government in Armenia would consider pursuing an anti-Russian policy within next thirty years. As the experience of Ukraine and Georgia has shown, anti-Russian orientation results in the loss of territories and economic turmoil due to eruption of wars within the country or as it may be in Armenian case between the two or more countries. Given present circumstances and assuming a number of factors to remain constant, an anti-Russian foreign policy will not benefit Armenia.
Conclusion/Recommendations:
As mentioned above, due to geographic circumstances and unresolved territorial disputes with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenian foreign policy cannot be anti-Russian or anti-Western. First and foremost, the Armenian foreign policy (as well as domestic politics) must be pro-Armenian and second it must be able to balance between East (Russia) and West (US/EU) similarly to how ancient Armenian kingdoms balanced between Rome and Byzantium, between Persian Empire and Ottoman Empire, Babylonian Empire and Assyrian Empire, etc. Furthermore, Armenia should make slow but steady steps towards restoring its sovereignty; an example of that will be taking over the total control of Armenia-Iran border and later on Armenia-Turkey border within next five to ten years while continuing to host Russian military bases on its soil until the need to have them is no longer there. Furthermore, any government that comes to power in Armenia needs to work towards strengthening of the Armenian state until it is capable of defending its territory and political sovereignty on its own, with very limited assistance from other powers similar to Switzerland or Israel.
Considering present state of affairs in Armenia it is necessary to have a seamless transition of political power in Armenia quickly and peacefully to restore the political stability in the country. Both sides of the conflict, the ruling government and the opposition must realize that they cannot be maximalist in their demands and end up in a situation where one side is a winner and the other side is a loser. Both sides need to compromise to achieve any tangible results and it will take long time to accomplish them. In the meantime, military and the church must be kept outside of political processes in the country as they represent all people of Armenia and cannot be taking sides in a political discourse between competing political forces within the country. Politics must be left to politicians and the civil society of Armenia to sort out using democratic institutions and electoral process enshrined in the constitution of the Republic of Armenia.
On April 23, 2018 majority of people in Armenia and thousands of compatriots abroad celebrated nonviolent, velvet revolution in the country which lead to the resignation of the ex-President Serj Sarksyan from recently acquired position of Armenia’s Prime Minister. Days after the resignation of Armenia’s PM protest demonstrations in Armenia continue as people demand resignation of the entire ruling government under the leadership of the Republican Party of Armenia, installment of an interim government of national accord and interim Prime Minister, opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan, and the beginning of new parliamentary elections in the country soon afterwards. At this point it is anyone’ s guess what may happen in Armenia next. Although the security situation on Armenia’s borders is not considered critical yet despite large accumulations of Azerbaijani military personnel and hardware on the LoC in the past few days, prolonged uncertainty in the country may embolden Azerbaijan resume its war against Republics of Armenia and Artsakh at any time.
Background:
For more than ten days preceding the resignation of Serj Sarksyan tens of thousands of Armenians engaged in peaceful demonstrations at the Republic Square in Yerevan and other towns and villages throughout Armenia by carrying out acts of civil disobedience and constant street rallies. Despite hundreds of people getting arrested, including Nikol Pashinyan and other protest leaders a few days ago, demonstrators persevered as more people joined them in the process, including war veterans of Four Day War, soldiers from nearby military garrisons and clergymen. A number of cabinet members have resigned within the past few days while two political parties that were part of the coalition government, ARF and Prosperous Armenia exited from the coalition and joined the protestors on the streets of Armenia. Fortunately for everyone involved, despite occasional scuffles that erupted between protesters and police, as well as between protesters and minority supporters of the ruling regime at different times throughout Armenia the protest demonstrations remained peaceful.
In the meantime, Armenia’s National Security Service conducted special operation which led to arrests of several individuals accused of planning to carry out numerous anti-government terrorist attacks throughout the country using remotely controlled IEDs. Large quantities of explosive materials, ammunition and weapons were confiscated as well. The incident is still under investigation as alleged terrorists are being interrogated for more information. Foreign media on the other hand, until recently was largely mute about the events taking place in Armenia. Only after the arrest of protest leaders and the resignation of Armenia’s PM that followed the “velvet revolution” in Armenia received a global coverage by leading American, Russian and European media outlets; foreign diplomatic missions in Armenia struggled to come up with a proper assessment of events taking place in the country and only few days ago made public announcements welcoming the aspirations of Armenian people for change and commending protesters for exercising their constitutional rights to free speech and free assembly through non-violent means of civil disobedience.
Analysis:
It is no secret that the ruling government of Armenia under the leadership of the Republican Party of Armenia doesn’t enjoy the support of the majority of Armenia’s citizens. The Armenian public both at home and abroad accuses them of cultivating a culture of corruption, kleptocracy and mismanagement of economy. Government ministers are viewed as incompetent to solve present day problems and often unwilling to do so due to their own vested interests serviced by the present state of affairs. A history of flawed elections both presidential and parliamentary where people’s voices were largely suppressed or manipulated to their own advantage are tainting the credibility of the RPA. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating on the streets of Armenia demand the resignation of the entire government and even banning RPA from playing any role in the future government of Armenia. Resignations of a few people used as scapegoats to deflect public anger do not suffice at this point. The entire government backed by local oligarchs and certain criminal elements is under public pressure to relinquish its place to the new generation of leaders represented by Nikol Pashinyan and others.
Arguably, the resignation of Serj Sarkisyan as the PM of Armenia can be attributed to many factors. However, there are several factors that need to be taken into consideration more than others. The first factor to consider is the indirect role of Armenia’s military which “allowed” its members to join opposition rallies in Yerevan. Armenia’s military is the most esteem institution in the country that enjoys the utmost respect and support of ordinary citizens and Armenian diaspora. As the guarantor of Armenia’s security, it is on the minds and in the hearts of all Armenians around the world. Therefore, when hundreds of soldiers and war veterans joined the ranks of marching protestors on the streets of Armenia the fate of Serj Sarkisian’s was arguable sealed. As a former war veteran himself who has held multiple high-level security positions in the Armenian military and national security establishment before becoming the President of Armenia and Commander in Chief, Serj Sarkisyan couldn’t ignore the fact that he no longer enjoyed the support of his brothers-in-arms. The causes for displeasure with Sarkisyan’s regime could be attributed to the mismanagement of military resources and incompetence of its leaders for the past twenty-four years which lead to large number of casualties and loss of small patches of territory along the LoC during the Four Day War of 2016.
The second factor to consider is the indirect role of Armenian clergy. Although both leaders of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Garegin II the supreme head of the Armenian Apostolic Church and Aram I of the Catholicosate of the Great House of Cilicia issued non-partisan public declarations encouraging both sides of the conflict to stay calm and work together towards finding peaceful resolutions of public grievances a number of clergymen joined the protesters as they marched at the forefront of demonstrators thus in a way co-leading the opposition against the ruling regime. The Armenian church is one of the pillars of Armenian statehood and an essential component of the Armenian nation that played a pivotal role in the Battle of Sardarbad (1918), Artsakh Liberation Movement (1988-1994) and during Four Day War. Thus, the significance of clergy appearing among the protesters and in someway leading people during rallies could have not been lost on Serj Sarkisyan. In light of the fact that the majority of Armenia’s citizens and the Armenian diaspora abroad associate themselves with the Armenian Apostolic Church, loss of their trust towards the government and the Republican Party of Armenia led by Serj Sarkisyan could have not been ignored.
The third factor to consider is the role of Armenian diaspora. As opposition rallies took place throughout Armenia similar opposition rallies took place in Armenian communities around the world, particularly in France, US and Russia. The global Armenian diaspora could be described as the third pillar of the Armenian national identity and statehood. Since 1988, billions of dollars’ worth of humanitarian aid and business projects were implemented in Armenia. Almost every Armenian community that has a capacity to organize itself and fundraise has done a charity project in Armenia, particularly in Artsakh or is in the process of implementing one by itself or in conjunction with others. A number of Armenian businesses particularly those specialized in IT field have either opened branches in Armenia or moved their entire businesses to Armenia. Despite mixed results and significant blame (for failure of multiple business projects) directed towards the ruling government in Armenia, there are still many diasporan Armenians who are continuing to invest in their native homeland. While doing business in Armenia many have reportedly encountered the invisible “red tape” and/or other problems that they didn’t anticipate to deal with. As such, the fate of diaspora Armenians towards the ruling government began to fade and more of them began to side with the opposition.
The fourth factor to consider is the role of foreign players in Armenia’s “velvet revolution”. Surprisingly all foreign players in Armenia, Russia: US and Europe at first ignored the rallies, then expressed support for peaceful expression of public’s will and encouraged both sides to find peaceful solution to political crisis in Armenia. Days later, despite balanced statements by Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs a number of Russian media outlets began painting the events in Armenia as another “color revolution” similar to Ukraine’s Maidan which somehow threatened Russian strategic national interests in the region. Such claims are certainly laughable considering that each country develops its national interests based on the strength and size of one’s economy, and the geographic location of their country. Considering that Russia dominates Armenia’s economy and its national security orientation due to threats emanating from aggressive and anti-Armenian policies of Azerbaijan and Turkey, it is inconceivable to imagine that any government in Armenia would consider pursuing an anti-Russian policy within next thirty years. As the experience of Ukraine and Georgia has shown, anti-Russian orientation results in the loss of territories and economic turmoil due to eruption of wars within the country or as it may be in Armenian case between the two or more countries. Given present circumstances and assuming a number of factors to remain constant, an anti-Russian foreign policy will not benefit Armenia.
Conclusion/Recommendations:
As mentioned above, due to geographic circumstances and unresolved territorial disputes with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenian foreign policy cannot be anti-Russian or anti-Western. First and foremost, the Armenian foreign policy (as well as domestic politics) must be pro-Armenian and second it must be able to balance between East (Russia) and West (US/EU) similarly to how ancient Armenian kingdoms balanced between Rome and Byzantium, between Persian Empire and Ottoman Empire, Babylonian Empire and Assyrian Empire, etc. Furthermore, Armenia should make slow but steady steps towards restoring its sovereignty; an example of that will be taking over the total control of Armenia-Iran border and later on Armenia-Turkey border within next five to ten years while continuing to host Russian military bases on its soil until the need to have them is no longer there. Furthermore, any government that comes to power in Armenia needs to work towards strengthening of the Armenian state until it is capable of defending its territory and political sovereignty on its own, with very limited assistance from other powers similar to Switzerland or Israel.
Considering present state of affairs in Armenia it is necessary to have a seamless transition of political power in Armenia quickly and peacefully to restore the political stability in the country. Both sides of the conflict, the ruling government and the opposition must realize that they cannot be maximalist in their demands and end up in a situation where one side is a winner and the other side is a loser. Both sides need to compromise to achieve any tangible results and it will take long time to accomplish them. In the meantime, military and the church must be kept outside of political processes in the country as they represent all people of Armenia and cannot be taking sides in a political discourse between competing political forces within the country. Politics must be left to politicians and the civil society of Armenia to sort out using democratic institutions and electoral process enshrined in the constitution of the Republic of Armenia.
Reuters: How Russia played silent kingmaker in Armenia's revolution
In the days before protesters overthrew Armenia’s veteran leader, Russian officials had high-level phone contacts with the protest leaders and the ruling elite that was clinging to power, according to three people briefed on the discussions. Weeks of protests against corruption and cronyism culminated on Tuesday in Nikol Pashinyan, the protest leader, becoming prime minister, in a dramatic rupture with the cadre of officials who have run this ex-Soviet state since the late 1990s.
Breaking the mould of previous ex-Soviet popular revolts, especially a bloody uprising in Ukraine in 2014, Moscow did not back the ruling elite or their right to use force to crush the protest movement. Unlike his counterparts in Ukraine, Pashinyan said he had no plans to pull Armenia out of Moscow’s orbit, and he took steps to reassure Moscow on that score, including via direct contacts, two of the sources said. During the protests, Pashinyan spoke to the Russian embassy in Yerevan, and to an official in the Russian foreign ministry in Moscow, according to one of the protest leaders, Armen Grigoryan, and a businessman close to Pashinyan’s circle who did not want to be identified.
“We worked with them,” said Grigoryan, referring to Russian officials. He said protest leaders explained to Moscow the nature of their movement and that Russia’s interests would not be served by blocking them. Russia’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on any contacts it had with people in Yerevan during the crisis. In the streets, Pashinyan’s supporters were encouraged to display only Armenian national symbols - a conscious break from the Ukraine revolt which angered Moscow by adopting the European Union flag.
On the other side of the stand-off, Serzh Sarksyan, Armenia’s ruler for a decade, was in touch with Russian officials as he fought for survival, according to a diplomatic source who spoke on condition of anonymity. In the 24 hours before Sarksyan quit as prime minister on April 23, he had telephone calls with officials in Moscow, the diplomatic source said. He did not reveal the content of the calls. Russia’s influence was not the only factor in Armenia’s revolution. Missteps by Sarksyan and the energy of the protest movement played critical roles.
But the contacts with Russia help explain how Armenia was able to sweep its rulers away without violence or a prolonged standoff with the police. Reuters has found no evidence that Russia actively intervened in the events in Armenia. Indeed, Moscow’s decision not to do so could have been enough to tilt the balance in favour of the protesters. The contacts also underline how President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, focussed on stopping the West encroaching on Russia’s sphere of influence, has turned the Kremlin into de facto kingmaker in parts of the former Soviet Union. Moments after he was installed as prime minister, Pashinyan said he hoped to meet Putin for talks soon, and he was sent a telegram from the Russian leader congratulating him on his appointment, the Kremlin said.
NO EU FLAGS
Sitting in an art cafe in central Yerevan, Pashinyan associate Grigoryan recalled how, when the protests started, few imagined they would lead to a revolution. Not more than 150 people showed up for the first rally against Sarksyan in Yerevan, on March 21, he said. The movement adopted some innovative approaches. It was not tied explicitly to a political party. It used social media to organise. It attracted young people, many not previously involved in politics. It used humour and satire. For example, the movement organised a spoof fund-raising campaign to create a retirement fund for Sarksyan. It circulated a caricature of Sarksyan photo-shopped to look like a dim-witted character from a Soviet-era children’s cartoon.
It also used direct action. “You don’t need many people to block a road, and that’s how we started,” said Grigoryan. Crucially, it kept the focus on domestic concerns and steered away from the kind of geopolitical themes that dominated Ukraine’s “Euromaidan” anti-Moscow uprising in 2014. “We learned from Euromaidan that a revolution should not have an international agenda,” said Grigoryan. He said no explicit instructions were given to supporters not to wave the EU or U.S. flags at rallies, but he said: “It was generally understood that it would be just Armenian flags at our protests.”
PHONE CALLS WITH MOSCOW
By April 22, the protests had snowballed, driven by public anger that Sarksyan was switching from the presidency to the job of prime minister to get around constitutional term limits and extend his grip on power. Tens of thousands of people marched through Yerevan, blocking streets and staging sit-ins. Sarksyan had no plans to quit at that point. He walked out of talks with Pashinyan after a few minutes, saying he would not give in to “blackmail.” The same day, police detained three opposition leaders, including Pashinyan, along with nearly 200 protesters. Yet the next day, Sarskyan changed direction, and resigned as prime minister.
In the intervening 24 hours, Sarksyan had intensive discussions with his own allies and officials. They discussed the possibility of implementing a state of emergency, which would give security agencies greater powers to use force against the protesters. “We had two options: parliament could introduce a state of emergency in the country or Serzh Sarskyan could resign,” said Eduard Sharmazanov, a lawmaker with the ruling Republican Party and deputy speaker of parliament. “Introducing a state of emergency would not solve the problem, but postpone it.”
In the same time period, while the internal discussions were going on, Sarksyan was in touch with Russia about what do to next, said the diplomatic source. “He weighed all the pros and cons and, as far I know, he also had some talks with people in Moscow,” the diplomatic source told Reuters. The businessman close to Pashinyan said his contacts in the Republican Party told him Sarksyan had conversations with Russian officials during this period. Soon afterwards, Sarksyan quit, opening the way for his opponents to take power. In his resignation statement, Sarksyan said: “I got it wrong.”
Source: https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN1I92QH
A Color Revolution Russia Can Live With
Why Armenia’s Velvet Revolution has not perturbed Moscow
Indeed, many observers compared Nikol Pashinyan to Russia’s leading opposition figure Alexei Navalny, and Armenian mass rallies against Serzh Sargsyan’s attempt to stay in power beyond ten years to the protests against Putin’s more than 18 years in power. Some Russian observers went so far as to compare the events in Armenia to the early stages of Ukraine’s Maidan, explicitly trying to frame the protests as anti-Russian. Russian state television, in its usual manner, accused the protestors of possible “Western connections.” Combined with Pashinyan’s previous criticism of Eurasian integration, the Velvet Revolution seemed to contain all the ingredients for a harsh reaction from Moscow—even if in stylistics and intensity the criticism would lag behind that unleashed previously against the main actors of Georgia’s Rose Revolution (2003) and Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (2004) and Euromaidan (2014).
Despite the odds, however, Moscow welcomed the peaceful transition of power in Armenia and welcomed Pashinyan as the new leader of one of Russia’s closest allies—indeed, its last ally in the strategically important South Caucasus. Russia’s foreign policy community, and by all appearances its leadership, concluded with near unanimity that the events in Yerevan did not pose a major threat to Moscow. A look at their commentary, and at Pashinyan’s careful positioning in the aftermath of the revolution, helps reveal why.
First and by far most importantly, the Russian expert community noted the impossibility of any radical pivot away from Moscow due to Yerevan’s high dependence on Russia. As Sergey Markedonov, one of Russia’s leading Caucasus experts, put it in late April, “Divergence from Russia is fraught with huge risks for the country; therefore, if successful, the supporters of the ‘Eurasian skeptic’ Pashinyan will most likely have to change his position by 180 degrees.”
Armenia is indeed highly dependent on Russia, first of all for security reasons. Russia continues to play a crucial role in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution and, most importantly, in helping Yerevan hold its ground against Ankara-backed Azerbaijani revisionism. In the sphere of economics, Russia accounts for roughly a quarter of Armenia’s trade turnover; in 2017, 26.7 percent of Armenia’s exports went to Russia. Hundreds of thousands of Armenians working in Russia have periodically sent remittances back home, with their total share amounting to nearly $900 million in 2016, a huge amount given Russia’s weakening currency and Armenia’s stagnant economy. According to some estimates, around two-thirds of Armenian industry is controlled by Russian capital; the country is almost totally dependent on imports of Russian energy.* Armenia also hosts Russian military bases on its soil, which many in Armenia consider their only warranty against prospective Turkish invasion. Thus, even the theoretical possibility of an anti-Russian policy being implemented was dismissed as highly unlikely.
Part of Moscow’s calmness can be explained by Armenia’s recent adoption of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the European Union, which it signed in November 2017. In political terms, this agreement compensated for Armenia’s refusal to sign the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the European Union back in 2013 and its reversion to joining the Eurasian Economic Union with Moscow. Symbolically speaking, CEPA allowed Yerevan to accomplish its promise to diversify Armenia’s foreign policy, having direct engagement (if not integration) with both Moscow and the European Union. But practically speaking, CEPA is viewed as a rather shallow agreement by Western-leaning experts in Armenia, due to its lack of a free trade clause as a result of restraints that participation in the EEU had put on Armenia. CEPA is thus a symbolic move that Moscow has officially allowed, depriving any Eurasian skeptics of arguments against “Moscow’s rigid stance.” Thus, in the eyes of the Russian government, Armenia was pre-emptively pacified in terms of a potential pro-European pivot.
The second factor affecting Pashinyan’s reception in Moscow was his carefully crafted messaging about future relations. He went to great lengths to signal both internally and externally his plans to continue Armenia’s strategic ally relations with Russia. That message was heard loud and clear. In his analysis for Valdai Club, Alexander Markarov writes: “Over the past few days Pashinyan has repeatedly stated and stressed, both at rallies and during meetings with State Duma deputies who arrived in Yerevan, that Armenia will not change its foreign policy course within his premiership, withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Union.” After repeating this message consistently in various venues throughout late April and early May, all Russian think tanks from the rather moderate Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) to the conservative Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS) concluded that Pashinyan was safe for Russia.
Any final doubts that Moscow might have harbored were cast away after Pashinyan’s talks with President Putin in Sochi, where he reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening Armenia-Russia relations. Despite satisfaction with how Pashinyan is handling the transition for now, though, a few cautious voices from Moscow have pointed out that Russia must watch closely how the West approaches Armenia’s new leader. As Markarov writes: “From the Russian point of view, it is important to ensure that, in the context of a deepening conflict with the West, the latter does not seize the initiative in relations with Armenia, which signed an agreement with the EU this past November.”
Some Armenian experts conclude that Russia had learned its lessons with Ukraine and thus acted much more calmly with Armenia. The logic behind this explanation is that in the case of a more assertive Russian stance toward the protestors, the Sargsyan regime would have been involved in violent clashes that might have left dozens killed and injured. And this might have compromised Sargsyan’s friendly regime and made Russia’s involvement, and Armenia’s unequivocal orientation toward Moscow, problematic.
But although the Ukrainian experience may have played some role in Moscow’s calculation, the key factor was Armenia’s cornered position: its continued dependence on Russia in terms of security, economy, and energy. Moscow, knowing all too well how dependent Yerevan remains, swiftly concluded that no considerable pivot away from Russia was feasible—even before Pashinyan went all out to prove that he seeks only domestic transformation and not to change Armenia’s foreign policy orientation. Even if Pashinyan himself, or his liberal pro-Western support base, wanted to navigate the country closer to Western standards of democracy, a major foreign policy change would remain highly unlikely. And given how marginal the South Caucasus is for EU and U.S. policymakers, they are unlikely to make courting Armenia a priority any time soon. For all the changes at the top in Yerevan, Putin is still sitting pretty.
“Velvet Revolution” in Armenia Indicates a Stronger Russian-Armenian Relationship
In
the wake of former Armenian President and Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian’s resignation on April 23, a shift in of policy might have
been expected. However,
new prime minister and protest leader of Armenia, Nikol Pashinian, was
seen meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Sochi on May 14
reaffirming the Russian-Armenian strategic relationship. At the meeting, Pashinian not only supported maintaining the current Russian-Armenian relationship but also suggested a “new impulse” for political and trade relations.
Interestingly, Pashinian does not precisely have a history of supporting Russian-Armenian relations. His party, the Yelk Coalition, submitted legislation last year to leave the Eurasian Union. Further, he has spoken out against the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In response to these claims, Pashinian has claimed that now that he has accepted the prime minister position, his focus is on the country rather than maintaining loyalty with his old party positions.
Interestingly, Pashinian does not precisely have a history of supporting Russian-Armenian relations. His party, the Yelk Coalition, submitted legislation last year to leave the Eurasian Union. Further, he has spoken out against the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In response to these claims, Pashinian has claimed that now that he has accepted the prime minister position, his focus is on the country rather than maintaining loyalty with his old party positions.
Where did the revolution in Armenia come from?
The demonstrations against Sarkisian were fueled by a number of factors, including electoral fraud in 2008, changes in pensions and municipal services, a hike in energy bills in 2014, Sarkisian’s re-election as president in 2013 and his subsequent run towards prime minister this year. Although there was no suggestion that a protest bringing such a radical change in government would come, within weeks, Sarkisian had resigned. This is primarily because there were widespread protests, including more than 100,000 people gathered in Yerevan’s main square the day before his resignation.
Sarkisian was known as the Kremlin’s man. Because of that, many observers waited and watched Russia’s reaction in particular. However, Russia did not involve itself other than speaking with Armenian politicians. Perhaps more blatant Russian interference was expected, as Pashinian actually praised Russia’s “balanced position… it was a very constructive position. And I think this is highly valued not just by our government but in Armenian society in general.”
Where are new Russian-Armenian relations headed?
Pashinian’s new government position on crucial matters such as the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory are as of yet unknown. Despite this populist win in Armenia that was very much sought by the people, right now the country remains at a crossroads. Pashinian has stated he wants to work with the old governing party but also fight ingrown corruption. Confrontations in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region have reached an all-time high since 1994 when more than 200 people died in April 2016. Since then, both Azerbaijan and Armenia have been building up military might on both sides of the border.
The simmering conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh might prove to be one of the factors in the maintenance of the Russian-Armenian relationship. Since the beginning of the tensions, Russia has acted as Armenia’s security guarantor, providing training and weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia also has been dependent on Russia for financial aid, military development and protection in general. Notably, in Sochi, Pashinian told Putin that he wanted Armenia to buy more Russian weaponry. So, despite this revolution against a ruler that was supported by the Kremlin – how much can really change? Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh implies that Armenia must continue to turn to Russia for regional security and assistance.
As tensions rise in the region and there are signs of Azerbaijani destabilization, will the ceasefire and uneasy peace continue to hold? Armenia’s estrangement from Azerbaijan and Turkey means that they remain dependent on Russia. Beyond that, as this change in government continues to grow and develop, wouldn’t this be a convenient time for Azerbaijan to decide to take back some territory?
Source: https://globalsecurityreview.com/velvet-revolution-armenia-indicates-stronger-russian-armenian-relationship/
Eduard Popov: Armenian ‘street revolution’ is not a Maidan
From the very beginning the April events in Yerevan and in Armenia as a whole differed from the events in Ukraine (“orange revolution” and “euromidan”) or in Georgia (“the Rose Revolution”). That’s why it seemed to me hasty to apply the term from Ukrainian political language, the Maidan (a word of Turkic origin denoting a plaza, in the political context, a street revolution) that has entered into broad political usage.
In my previous article, I wrote, with reference to my contacts in Armenia, that the preservation of the “pro-Russian” ex-President Serge Sargsyan in power met with indignation in society. And the point here is not the pro-Russianness of Sargsyan, but the corruption and total poverty in Armenia, which are strongly associated with his 10-year rule.
Russia has been and remains the main political and economic partner of Armenia. For example, Moscow supplies energy to Armenia at prices much lower than in other countries. That is, with less profit. “Gazprom” in 2018 will keep gas prices for Armenia at $150 dollars per 1 thousand cubic meters. For comparison: on the reverse, Ukraine now buys gas at a price of about $ 280 dollars per 1 thousand cubic meters. We can cite similar data for other types of energy resources. But at the same time in Armenia they complain about high tariffs for utilities. As the Armenian experts, that the author of these lines has worked with in international conferences, told me, price “scissors” are explained by the aspirations of local operators to superprofits. The difference between domestic and procurement prices for gas for Armenia is a factor of two: In 2014 Armenia received Russian gas for $ 189 per 1,000 cubic meters, but it sold to the domestic consumer at a price of $ 391 per 1 thousand cubic meters. Armenia is a country with a very poor population and the price of gas is very high. The mass discontent in the Armenian society with the extremely high prices for gas is quite understandable.
But where does this discontent go? Once again I will refer to the opinions of my familiar experts from Armenia: the authorities blamed Russia for high gas prices. (Belarusian President Lukashenko also carries out the same propaganda policy, only more roughly and rectilinearly). Thus, the shortfall in profits of the Russian “Gazprom” flows into the pockets of Armenian oligarchs and is transformed into the growth of anti-Russian sentiment in Armenia.
A simplified and profoundly flawed policy has emerged in Russia that determines the country’s behavior towards its allies in the post-Soviet space. If a country’s leader declares his pro-Russianness, he must be supported at all costs. As a result, Russian support for corrupt and unpopular regimes, both overthrown and now existing. It would seem that Moscow acts on the same principle as the Americans: “he may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” But this is only an external identity.
The US, when necessary, demonstrates enviable flexibility and easily goes to replace a turncoat or failing regime. Let us recall a classic example of this kind: the “Rose Revolution,” organized by the American “son of a bitch” Saakashvili to overthrow the “son of a bitch” Shevardnadze, who had brought so much benefit to the US as USSR Foreign Minister. In Moscow, they persistently supported Kuchma and Yanukovych, as they now support Lukashenko. Why is a corrupt head of state, who defames the pro-Russian vector of his country’s policies, better than a street revolutionary?
But it seems that in Armenia the method in the workings of the Russian Foreign Ministry have substantially changed: not to support the unpopular regime, which is failing in its socio-economic results, but to try to reach agreement with the new government on conditions favorable to Russia. That is why Russian official media are very reserved in covering what is happening in Armenia. And in the statements of the highest officials of the Russian state, there is far from that condemning certainty that sounded when assessing the “euromaidan” or street revolution in Minsk.
So, already on April 23, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin commented on the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan as “The Sovereign Affair of that State.” Even more interesting is the statement made by the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov. “We are wishing for our Armenian friends to resolve the political situation that has developed as soon as possible. We also hope that in any case, the allied, kindly, and constructive bilateral Russian-Armenian relations will remain a constant both for the foreign policy of our country and for the foreign policy of Yerevan.” In other words: if the new government of Armenia remains committed to the pro-Russian course, Russia, in turn, will perceive it as “Armenian friends” with all the ensuing consequences.
These appeals (presumably there were not only speeches intended for the general public, but also behind-the-scenes negotiations), apparently did not remain unheeded at the headquarters of the street opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan. Familiar with the Armenian political scene, political scientists from Russia (including ethnic Armenians) drew attention to the change in Pashinyan’s foreign policy rhetoric. A year ago, he advocated the withdrawal from the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization, including Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan – a kind of anti-NATO in the post-Soviet space) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EurAsEC or EEMA).
But the other day, speaking from the rostrum of the Armenian parliament, Pashinyan stated the following: “We do not and will not raise the question of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAPC, did not and will not set the task of withdrawing Armenia from the CSTO. However, we say: we do not believe that everything is perfect there. There are numerous problems that need to be discussed in a constructive atmosphere.”
He stressed that Russia was and remains a strategic ally for Armenia. But he drew attention to the existing problems in the relations between the two countries and within the CSTO. With the latter you can not argue. For example, Belarus, a member of the CSTO, in defiance of the organization’s charter, refuses to send its troops to the aid of an ally (it means the eventual war of Armenia and Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh). The President of Belarus, Lukashenko, handed the pro-Armenian blogger Lapshin (who is Russian and has Israeli citizenship) over to the Azerbaijani authorities, and maintains more allied relations with Baku (from which he receives economic preferences) than with his official ally Yerevan.
Of course, in the interests of political struggle the candidate for the post of prime minister (that is, the head of state) can say a lot. And so, too, can an incumbent head of state: take, for example Kuchma, Lukashenko, Sargsyan, who hide behind friendship with Russia and conduct policies, foreign or domestic, either one, far from novorossian.
I will quote the well-known Russian political scientist Armen Grigoryan: “Troubles in the region of Armenia are unlikely to happen, because politically the people preserve a certain unity. The opposition and the ruling power are similar in the main – they are committed to the development of partnership with Russia.” I am also a cautious optimist in this matter.
On May 2, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia announced that it was ready to support a single opposition candidate on the ballot – and, as it seems, three opposition factions of the parliament are ready to nominate Nikol Pashinyan (there is no official support from the “Dashnaktsutyun” faction yet). Therefore, it is highly prtobable that Pashinyan will be elected the new head of government (and head of state) on May 8. The change of power in Yerevan will open the possibility of raking up the Augean stables in bilateral (Russia-Armenia) and collective (CSTO) relations. And it will show that Russia is ready for trusting cooperation with any government supported in the society and aimed at allied relations with Moscow. The Russian side has demonstrated the flexibility that we so often lack. Now let’s see how convincing Pashinyan will be in the head of state role in raking up the rubble.
Source: https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/05/popov-armenian-street-revolution-is-not-a-maidan/
EurAsia Daily: Eurasian realities look promising, Armenia on the right way: expert
Armenia’s
economy saw upward trend in 2017 and in the first quarter of 2018. Aram
Safaryan, head of Integration and Development NGO, Coordinator of
Armenian Expert Club, said talking to EADaily.
Economy of Russia is on the way of sustainable growth which has a positive impact on economies of Eurasian space and a significant growth of almost all indicators. “We can see growth of export and import, industry and construction. Even such heavy sectors as agriculture and energy have increased as compared to last year. This will continue in second quarter of 2018 as well. It is very important for us to see a tendency towards two-digit growth in the key sectors of Armenian economy (including export of finished products), due to developing trade and economic ties with Russia, first of all,” Safaryan said.
Russia accounts for one-fourth of total export from Armenia – an absolute leader. Economic partners of Armenia after Russia are Switzerland, Bulgaria, Germany, Iraq, UAE, Netherlands, China, Iran and U.S. Altogether it is 75% of Armenia’s export. However, part of these countries may not be in that list as early as in second quarter of 2018. Hence, speaking of a significant growth of cooperation to boost Armenian export, one should focus on Russia, first.
“Russian economy is of high importance for Armenia. Its role and factor in Armenia’s economy has a tendency of sustainable growth, which creates big expectations of economic improvements and higher living standards for the Armenian public. Money remittances from Russia to Armenia have increased as well – Russia is still the key source of money remittances to Armenia and one of the key partner-countries, where money is transferred from Armenia. This means that we are involved in private investments in Russian economy, which is an evident development of integration processes inside EAEU,” Safaryan said adding that in 2017, Armenia received monetary transfers for $1 billion 70 million, 60% of which – from Russia.
At the same time, members of Eurasian expert club refrain from forecasts for entire 2018, since economic processes develop in a contradictory manner, especially for such sensitive states as Armenia. However, there are some forecasts for a six-month period. For instance, Safaryan anticipates a growth in agricultural sector, processing, textile and footwear industry. Safaryan recalled World Bank’s forecast of 3.8% economic growth in Armenia in 2018, whereas government of Armenia envisages 4.5% growth.
“However, we believe that if government sets an ambitious goal to double GDP of Armenia within ten years to lead the country from the group of third countries to the group of developing ones, that ambitious task can be settlement by combined efforts of the Armenian public, business and government. The recent developments in Armenia speak of potential return of money that vanished abroad, anti-corruption measures, elimination of monopolies, embezzlement of budgetary and private funds. These positive trends cannot but have a positive impact on overall economic climate in the country. We believe that if the new government announces capital amnesty for the money legally or illegally taken abroad during the last 20 years (I am speaking about more than $20 billion in offshore banks) and at least part of those funds is returned and invested in Armenia’s economy, it will improve the situation dramatically,” the expert said.
Economy of Russia is on the way of sustainable growth which has a positive impact on economies of Eurasian space and a significant growth of almost all indicators. “We can see growth of export and import, industry and construction. Even such heavy sectors as agriculture and energy have increased as compared to last year. This will continue in second quarter of 2018 as well. It is very important for us to see a tendency towards two-digit growth in the key sectors of Armenian economy (including export of finished products), due to developing trade and economic ties with Russia, first of all,” Safaryan said.
Russia accounts for one-fourth of total export from Armenia – an absolute leader. Economic partners of Armenia after Russia are Switzerland, Bulgaria, Germany, Iraq, UAE, Netherlands, China, Iran and U.S. Altogether it is 75% of Armenia’s export. However, part of these countries may not be in that list as early as in second quarter of 2018. Hence, speaking of a significant growth of cooperation to boost Armenian export, one should focus on Russia, first.
“Russian economy is of high importance for Armenia. Its role and factor in Armenia’s economy has a tendency of sustainable growth, which creates big expectations of economic improvements and higher living standards for the Armenian public. Money remittances from Russia to Armenia have increased as well – Russia is still the key source of money remittances to Armenia and one of the key partner-countries, where money is transferred from Armenia. This means that we are involved in private investments in Russian economy, which is an evident development of integration processes inside EAEU,” Safaryan said adding that in 2017, Armenia received monetary transfers for $1 billion 70 million, 60% of which – from Russia.
At the same time, members of Eurasian expert club refrain from forecasts for entire 2018, since economic processes develop in a contradictory manner, especially for such sensitive states as Armenia. However, there are some forecasts for a six-month period. For instance, Safaryan anticipates a growth in agricultural sector, processing, textile and footwear industry. Safaryan recalled World Bank’s forecast of 3.8% economic growth in Armenia in 2018, whereas government of Armenia envisages 4.5% growth.
“However, we believe that if government sets an ambitious goal to double GDP of Armenia within ten years to lead the country from the group of third countries to the group of developing ones, that ambitious task can be settlement by combined efforts of the Armenian public, business and government. The recent developments in Armenia speak of potential return of money that vanished abroad, anti-corruption measures, elimination of monopolies, embezzlement of budgetary and private funds. These positive trends cannot but have a positive impact on overall economic climate in the country. We believe that if the new government announces capital amnesty for the money legally or illegally taken abroad during the last 20 years (I am speaking about more than $20 billion in offshore banks) and at least part of those funds is returned and invested in Armenia’s economy, it will improve the situation dramatically,” the expert said.
EurAsia Daily: Russophobes in Pashinyan’s team: Soros tilting boat of pro-Armenian premier
Since the very beginning, organizers of the protests insisted that it was just domestic policy process with no foreign policy hidden motives.
Nikol Pashinyan was well aware that Armenia is not Ukraine and the Armenian people, at least the overwhelming majority of it, will hardly follow a leader trying to lead them against Russia. The Armenian people demanded social and economic changes and improvement of living standards. At that moment, Pashinyan headed the Yelq parliamentary faction, the political program of which particularly reads: “The Yelq Bloc considers Armenia’s EAEU membership a mistake that poses serious risks to sovereignty, security, normal economic and political development of Armenia, fair settlement of Artsakh issue. The Yelq Bloc believes that these risks need to be managed through deep analysis of the regional and international situation and balanced implementation of national interests of the Republic of Armenia.”
Besides, Pashinyan’s faction initiated hearings in the parliament related to Yerevan’s withdrawal from EAEU. Leader of people’s protests Pashinyan was well aware that if his undertaking succeeds, partners in Russia will have concerns over further development of Russian-Armenian relations. That is why, during rallies, he constantly expressed his loyalty to Moscow and priority of Armenian-Russian relations. He talked about this also at the meeting with Russian Embassy diplomats in Armenia and State Duma members.
On May 14, Sochi hosted EAEU Summit. Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin made on sidelines of the summit. During the meeting, Pashinyan thanked Russia for its balanced stance on events in Armenia and reiterated that no one in Yerevan will ever cast doubt on importance of Russian-Armenian relations. After the Summit in Sochi, Pashinyan continued forming his cabinet. It is no secret that overwhelming majority of the new government representatives graduated from various Western universities. There is nothing bad in it. However, what some of them were engaged in during study-free time gives pause for thought.
One of Pashinyan’s most interesting appointments that, to put it mildly, does not fit into logic of Russian-Armenian allied relations, is appointment of Armen Grigoryan, Election Program Coordinator of Transparency International, as Head of National Security Council. Transparency International is sponsored by Soros Foundation, an NGO of American billionaire who used to sponsor “color” revolutions worldwide. George Soros considers Russia his archenemy and over 70 organizations in Armenia are funded by his Foundation. Many of those organizations seek to undermine the Russian-Armenian relations and damage Russia’s image in Armenia.
Another, not less noteworthy event for prospects of Armenian-Russian alliance was appointment of David Sanasaryan as Head of the State Audit Service. David Sanasaryan, former representative of Heritage pro-Western chaired by U.S. Armenian Raffi Hovhannisyan, was regularly noticed in front of the Russian Embassy in Yerevan with a new anti-Russian poster directed by his American bosses. Sanasaryan is known to throw eggs at the building of Russian Embassy and demand withdrawal of Russian military base from Armenia.
David Sanasaryan in front of Russian Embassy in Armenia
Recently Nikol Pashinyan has charged Daniel Ioanissyan,
coordinator of the Union of Informed Citizens NGO, to head work on new
version of Election Code of Armenia. Many know Ioanissyan as
whistle-blower who exposed school principals lobbying for the Republican
Party during last parliamentary elections. Articles by representatives of this NGO on EAEU, CSTO and Russia are
available on its website. The NGO received grants from above Foundations
to discredit the process of Armenia’s participation in EAEU.
Screenshot from NED Foundation website
On May 25, Babken Ter-Grigoryan was appointed as
deputy minister for Armenian Diaspora. Ter-Grigoryan was born in Paris,
grew up and received education in U.S. Like Armen Grigoryan, he worked
at Transparency International, was coordinator of Soros Foundation
programs. Simultaneously, he is appointed Advisor to deputy prime
minister for economy issues. Of course, Pashinyan saw Ter-Grigoryan’s
images holding a poster insulting leader of the state having the biggest
Armenian Diaspora. Pashinyan who has recently called the Diaspora for
support should not anticipate Babken Ter-Grigoryan’s assistance in this
not to feel deeply disappointed.
Deputy Minister of Diaspora Babken Ter-Grigoryan (on the left)
Newly appointed Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Mane Tandilyan
worked as accountant at Synopsys Inc. American company for long years.
Tandilyan represents the Yelq Bloc and pro-Western Prosperous Armenia
Party. Tandilyan and her party believe that Armenia’s withdrawal from
EAEU will create new opportunities for Armenia, and Armenian goods will
become in demand in the European market. The same “Soros’” ministers of Saakashvili’s
team in Georgia used to say until they ruined agricultural sector and
had to ask Russia to open its market for Georgian wines and beverages.
Basically, it is not clear how Pashinyan is going to improve the
Russian-Armenian relations with such team. These persons are evident
chronic Russophobes and they have repeatedly proved it by their actions.
In fact, it is not the full list. We will introduce also other
newly-appeared American politicians and officials who are “full of
energy,” as Pashinyan said in Sochi, to develop the strategic alliance
of Armenia with Russia.
Source: https://eadaily.com/en/news/2018/05/28/russophobes-in-pashinyans-team-soros-tilting-boat-of-pro-armenian-premier
Anatoly Karlin: The benefits of the Russian-Armenian alliance are largely borne by Armenia
Now to be sure, I still think my analysis here stands – Armenians genuinely do approve of
Russia, and even if they didn’t, they certainly approve of Azerbaijan
and Turkey far less, and with good reason – but if we do get an
anti-Russian Armenian government…
OTOH, Saakashvili also started off by saying he wanted better relations with Russia. Anyhow. What will happen if Armenia tells the moskal occupants to go home is that while the Starikovs and the Dugins and the Western Russophiles will throw a hissy fit, Russian nationalists will be quite platonic about it. Here’s why:
1. Armenia benefits from its Russia relationship far more than does Russia. The Armenian Lobby is the most powerful ethnic lobby in Russian politics, and probably the only one that makes a discernible impact on Russian foreign policy.
2. Armenia was a real geostrategic asset for the Russian Empire before World War I, when ethnic Armenians in the Ottoman Empire were a potential dagger in the backs of the Turks. Their desire to create a Greater Armenia tallied well with Russia’s centuries-long project to dismantle the Ottoman Empire, and it was their consequent loyalty to Petrograd that more than anything else spurred on the Armenian Genocide. Had Russia won the war, a Greater Armenia would have stretched deep into Anatolia, creating an Orthodox landbridge to Lebanon and the Holy Land. With Russia in control of Tsargrad, and the Greeks recreating Magna Graecia, the Turks would have been bottled up in the Anatolian highlands (perhaps no other nation was spared so catastrophic a 20th century fate as Turkey by the Russian Revolution). Russia, not Britain or the US, would have ruled over the Mediterranean.
Today, these are all ancient pipedreams. The Mediterranean is an American lake and will remain so regardless of what happens in Syria. Turkey dominates the region, economically and demographically; if a century ago there around about as many Greeks and Armenians as there were Turks (!), today there are 80 million Turks to 10 million Greeks and 3 million Armenians. In this context, Armenia is strategically overrated. It is landlocked. It is surrounded by hostile and far more powerful states. It locks Russia into military commitments via the CSTO alliance – for instance, if the Turks were to open up a second front in support of an Azeri invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh. And Iran, a genuinely useful if prickly partner, is accessible via the Caspian anyway.
3. There are negligible numbers of ethnic Russians in Armenia. An anti-Russian turn in Armenia will not impact on the welfare of ethnic Russians. Neither will Armenia reaping the results of its folly.
4. Armenia’s friendship is highly situational. To be sure, it supports Russia today. And Jews also support the US. That doesn’t necessarily imply deep loyalty – just that both states advance their respective peoples’ ethnic genetic interests. When they perceived things were otherwise, they made that known. Obscure historical note: The “tradition” of terrorist bombings of the Moscow Metro began with Armenian nationalists in the 1970s.
This is not surprising because Russia have any deep cultural, linguistic, or genetic links to Armenia. Is is its own ancient civilization that is highly distinct from Russia’s.
Now ditching allies just because you know they aren’t that genuine in their love for you, or because they’re not not pulling their weight, doesn’t look good from the side. It’s not just bad from an ethical perspective, but a reputational one as well. Who’d want to be allies with a blackguard, anyway? This is why, unlike some Russian nationalists, I don’t support unilaterally dissolving the special relationship with Armenia. It’s dishonorable, and won’t bring obvious benefits anyway – for instance, it’s not like it will make Turkey into a genuine friend. However, this is not an excuse for allowing oneself to be cucked and enjoying it, so if the initiative comes from the Armenians themselves – well, no reason why Russia shouldn’t take them up on it.
In this scenario, Azerbaijan will probably take the opportunity to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue by force in the next few years. At least seeing the color revolutionaries vainly beseeching their Euro-Atlantic sponsors for help will be amusing. At this point, a rump Armenia terminally disillusioned with the West may go back to Russia anyway. But if it doesn’t, who cares, anyway. By then will be even more irrelevant than it is today. Main downside for Russia, apart from the obvious one of losing its last major (but isolated) military base in the South Caucasus, is hundreds of thousands of Armenian refugees, as the Azeris proceed to ethnically cleanse that region.
Just to clarify. I don’t want Armenia to turn anti-Russian, nor – more importantly – do I think it will turn anti-Russian. Considering that both Foreign Policy magazineand the Kremlin agree, this is hardly a controversial perspective. However, if I and Foreign Policy and the Kremlin are all wrong, and the people who see an anti-Russian conspiracy underneath every color revolution are correct after all, it will, at least, not be Russians who will bear the brunt of the ensuing suffering, as happened in the Ukraine.
Source: https://russia-insider.com/en/if-armenia-breaks-its-moscow-alliance-russians-wont-care/ri23317
Geopolitica: The ominous Armenian destiny
It
is not the first time that Armenia enters the sights of variously
colorful revolutionaries in the pay of foreign powers. Already in 2008,
following the defeat in the presidential elections of Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, the champion of the current "velvet revolution" Nikol
Pashynian (editor of the liberal newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak - The Times
of Armenia) instigated riots and protests that led him first to the
inaction and then to the detention on charges of premeditated actions
aimed at laying siege to the buildings of the State government. In 2015
(not by chance after the country's accession to the Eurasian Economic
Union) another wave of protests from the high-sounding name Electric
Yerevan invested the capital of Armenia due to the increase in
electricity supply costs. Not achieved the desired result with the
"peaceful" protest, even then, paramilitary groups appeared on the
streets accusing the government of a too soft attitude regarding the
issue of Nagorno-Karabakh (or Armenian Artsakh). In fact, in July 2016,
an armed group broke into a barracks in Yerevan demanding the release of
their leader Jirair Sefilan; prominent military commander during the
conflict of the late eighties and early nineties, joined in 2015 to the
opposition group New Armenia by Raffi Hovanisian closely linked to the
US Embassy in the country.
Armenia, from the moment it gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, has been forced to live in both economic and geopolitical difficult conditions. Closed in a narrow space dimension (and extremely reduced considering the extent of the territory in which the Armenians lived in the past), crushed between two hostile nations (Turkey and Azerbaijan) and landlocked, Armenia chose to lead a policy called of the "double track" linking both to Russia, historically responsible for its security, and to the West through the role of the diaspora (active especially in France and the United States) and the clearance to the massive presence of foreign NGOs in the national territory.
Armenia, from the moment it gained independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, has been forced to live in both economic and geopolitical difficult conditions. Closed in a narrow space dimension (and extremely reduced considering the extent of the territory in which the Armenians lived in the past), crushed between two hostile nations (Turkey and Azerbaijan) and landlocked, Armenia chose to lead a policy called of the "double track" linking both to Russia, historically responsible for its security, and to the West through the role of the diaspora (active especially in France and the United States) and the clearance to the massive presence of foreign NGOs in the national territory.
However, it was precisely the strong cultural link with Russia that tore the scales for the choice of field in international relations. The complex geopolitical game of the powers in what the Arabs called Djabal al-Alsun (mountain of languages) for the profound ethno-linguistic diversity that distinguished the Caucasus, led, as the Italian historian Aldo Ferrari often pointed out, to the formation of two axes of alliances: a vertical one that includes Russia, Armenia and Iran (which paradoxically took the parts of Armenia against Azerbaijan Shiite in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict); and a horizontal one made up of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan closely linked to North American interests.
In
recent years, the progressive effort of the Russian Federation to
eradicate the remaining jihadist cells in the North Caucasus and to
freeze the conflict around the Armenian enclave in Azeri territory, to
which was added the Turkey's Eurasian repositioning following the
Western failure in Syria , have put in crisis the North American
geopolitical planning aimed at tightening Russia within a sanitary
cordon that prevents a hegemonic role in a region that is part of
several infrastructural development projects through which the natural
resources of the Central Asia. In this context, it is clear that the
difficult situation in Armenia (it is useless to deny the obvious
structural and economic difficulties of the country) could only
represent a favorable opportunity to put in place yet another attempt to
subvert not a corrupt government and tyrannical (even if the government
of the president and prime minister since April 2018 Serzh Sargsyan has
often been addressed in these terms also by the Azerbaijani dynasty of
the Aliyev, sic!) but precisely the geopolitical positioning of Armenia.
The figure of Sargsyan, father master of the Armenian politics of the last ten years and a character not without serious responsibilities, is only ostensibly stigmatized by his alleged authoritarian drift. The real objective of the velvety revolution under way in Armenia is to hit the framework of geopolitical alliances in which Armenia has entered, becoming part of the Eurasian Economic Union. The idea that street protests derive from generic demands or claims for a deep westernization is totally groundless if one considers that, as Arman Boshyan (president of the Yerevan Geopolitical Club) argued, the Armenian government under the chairmanship of Sargsyan was the most pro-Western in the history of the country. Regardless of the fact that only on 9 April was elected president, with the votes of the Republican Party of Sargsyan, a man, Armen Sarkissian, who possesses dual Armenian and British citizenship, in the last ten years have also been initiated forms of partnership with the EU, introduced civil rights for homosexuals and implemented reforms in open contrast with what is the tradition of a country and a people profoundly proud of their Christian cultural and religious heritage. One can not forget that Armenia, although still a tributary of the Roman Empire, was the first state entity to make Christianity its official religion as early as 301 AD. C. And the subsequent separation from both the West and the Byzantine East, through the rejection of the outcome of the Council of Chalcedon of 451 and the alignment with miaphysitist positions following the Council of Dvin of 455, have further emphasized the peculiarities of the National Apostolic Church and of the Armenian people in general.
Therefore, the constitutional reform that transformed Armenia from a presidential republic to a parliamentary giving the possibility to former president Sargsyan to hold the role of prime minister at the expiration of his double presidential term was only the spark used by a movement incapable of reach 10% in national elections to implement, as the ideologist Gene Sharp has taught, yet another impersonation of the majority by a narrow minority. All seasoned by the usual complicity of the Western media always willing to paint these reactions as an expression of the unease of young people who take the street protest square driven by their alleged desire for freedom.
The figure of Sargsyan, father master of the Armenian politics of the last ten years and a character not without serious responsibilities, is only ostensibly stigmatized by his alleged authoritarian drift. The real objective of the velvety revolution under way in Armenia is to hit the framework of geopolitical alliances in which Armenia has entered, becoming part of the Eurasian Economic Union. The idea that street protests derive from generic demands or claims for a deep westernization is totally groundless if one considers that, as Arman Boshyan (president of the Yerevan Geopolitical Club) argued, the Armenian government under the chairmanship of Sargsyan was the most pro-Western in the history of the country. Regardless of the fact that only on 9 April was elected president, with the votes of the Republican Party of Sargsyan, a man, Armen Sarkissian, who possesses dual Armenian and British citizenship, in the last ten years have also been initiated forms of partnership with the EU, introduced civil rights for homosexuals and implemented reforms in open contrast with what is the tradition of a country and a people profoundly proud of their Christian cultural and religious heritage. One can not forget that Armenia, although still a tributary of the Roman Empire, was the first state entity to make Christianity its official religion as early as 301 AD. C. And the subsequent separation from both the West and the Byzantine East, through the rejection of the outcome of the Council of Chalcedon of 451 and the alignment with miaphysitist positions following the Council of Dvin of 455, have further emphasized the peculiarities of the National Apostolic Church and of the Armenian people in general.
Therefore, the constitutional reform that transformed Armenia from a presidential republic to a parliamentary giving the possibility to former president Sargsyan to hold the role of prime minister at the expiration of his double presidential term was only the spark used by a movement incapable of reach 10% in national elections to implement, as the ideologist Gene Sharp has taught, yet another impersonation of the majority by a narrow minority. All seasoned by the usual complicity of the Western media always willing to paint these reactions as an expression of the unease of young people who take the street protest square driven by their alleged desire for freedom.
Source: https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/ominous-armenian-destiny
William Engdahl: What’s Washington Really Doing in Armenia?
There has been considerable speculation in
recent days as to whether the recent and ongoing protests across former
Soviet Armenia constitute another Washington Color Revolution
destabilization or whether it represents simply the angry revolt of
citizens fed up with the deep corruption and lack of economic
development under the regime of Prime Minister Serzh Sargysan. Following days of large protests, the former President was forced to resign on April 23, declaring, “Nikol Pashinyan was right. I was wrong.” Armenia is an integral member of Russia’s
Eurasian Economic Union and were it to come under control of a pro-NATO
opposition could bring a strategic problem for Moscow to put it mildly.
The issue is significant.
Ironically, what nominally sparked the protests
was the action of Sargysan to in effect do what Turkey’s Erdogan has
done, only in reverse. He and his parliamentary majority party managed
to strip the office of President of almost all but ceremonial roles,
while giving actual decision powers to the office of Prime Minister.
That he managed just before he himself became Prime Minister. Reaction
from Moscow to the ongoing protests until now has evidently been muted
following a statement that it won’t get involved in Armenian internal
affairs. At this point, despite the fact that Sargysan
resigned as Prime Minister and did not submit himself as candidate to
oppose Pashinyan in the May 1 parliament vote, Pashinyan fell short of
the majority needed to be named Prime Minister. As of this writing he
has called for a total blockage of traffic and government buildings by
“peaceful acts of civil disobedience.” He told a crowd outside
Parliament after the failed vote was announced,
“Tomorrow total strike is declared. We block all the streets, communications, subway and the airports starting from 08:15. Our struggle cannot end in a failure.”
What evidence points to a directed Washington
intervention into a country strategic for Moscow? First we have the
established presence of an office in Yerevan of the Open Society
Foundations-Armenia. As the anti-government protests built in size on
April 17, several NGOs signed an open letter to the government warning
that they had identified probable government-backed protest disruptors
and warned against their deployment against the peaceful protestors. The call was signed among others by Helsinki
Committee of Armenia, part of Helsinki Committees which in part is
funded by George Soros’ Open Society Foundations. The call was also
signed by Open Society Foundations – Armenia.
This past February the OSF-Armenia announced a
joint project with the European Union designed to, “focus on engaging
youth, young activists and journalists. It will serve as a bridge
between the established human rights advocates in Armenia and younger
generations of activists interested in gaining more expertise in
defending rights of the RA citizens.”
Another signer to the warning statement to the
Armenian government was an Armenian NGO calling itself the Protection of
Rights Without Borders NGO. It turns out that that NGO is also funded
not only by OSF-Armenia, but also by the EU and by the US State
Department USAID, an organization as I describe in my newest book,
Manifest Destiny: Democracy as Cognitive Dissonance, that is frequently
tied to US Government regime change destabilizations and Color Revolutions.The fact that Open Society Foundations-Armenia and
others signed such a statement directly tied to unfolding events on the
streets of Yerevan suggest at the least more than an academic interest
in the growing protests.
What about the role of other US-based NGOs in
Armenia? The leading US regime-change NGO, National Endowment for
Democracy, created in the 1980’s in the words of Allan Weinstein,
one of its founders, to do what the CIA used to do but privately, has
become far less forthcoming about its grants. Nonetheless some research
reveals that the NED has also funded numerous programs in Armenia
ranging from promoting rule of law and government accountability in
Armenia, as well as funding a 2017 program for Armenian journalists to
show “how Georgia benefits from its associations with the EU and how
Armenia does not reap similar advantages from the Eurasian Economic Union.” In another generous grant the NED gave more than $40,000 in 2017, a hefty sum in the depressed Armenian economy, to finance Armenian Times Newspaper as they put it, “to improve the quality and increase the availability of independent news…”
Now if we add to the established presence of
Washington-financed NGOs the fact that the US State Department actively
is in contact with opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan during the recent
protests it becomes even more likely we are witnessing a variation of
Washington’s Color Revolution. On April 30, the day before the fateful
parliament vote, US State Department Assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs, A. Wess Mitchell, noted
he had initiated a phone discussion with opposition Civil Contract MP,
Nikol Pashinyan. In his official statement Mitchell merely stated that
the
“US government looks forward to working closely with the new government in Armenia, aiming to further deepen the decades-long US-Armenian relationship.”
Wess Mitchell sits in the post held under Obama by
the infamous neoconservative Ukraine Color Revolution instigator,
Victoria Nuland. It seems he is the continuity of Nuland as well.
Mitchell came to the State Department post in 2017 from something called
the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) where he was CEO and
which he actually founded. Now things get interesting. The CEPA, a Washington think tank founded in 2004
at the time the US was deep involved in the Ukraine Orange Revolution,
describes its mission being “to promote an economically vibrant,
strategically secure and politically free Central and Eastern Europe
with close and enduring ties to the United States.” A major program of
CEPA is “dedicated to monitoring and exposing Russian disinformation in
the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.”
Indeed Assistant Secretary of State Mitchell comes
from a Washington anti-Russian think tank whose funders include NATO,
US Defense Department, National Endowment for Democracy, the major
military industry giants including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing,
BAE Systems, Bell Helicopter. Notably
after an article in the Russian state RT on the funding of CEPA that
portion of their website seems to have vanished into cyber nirvana.
In addition to Russophobe Mitchell in admitted contact with opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan, US Ambassador to Armenia, Richard Mills, a former Senior “Democracy Advisor” (sic) at the US Embassy in Iraq owes his job to Victoria Nuland
who reportedly brought Mills to Yerevan to help bring Armenia, like
Ukraine, into the US sphere and away from Russia. Mills reportedly
played a key role in brokering the sale of an Armenian Vorotan Hydro
complex to American company that triggered a failed 2015 attempt at a
Color Revolution protest over the ensuing 16% hike in electricity
prices. US-funded NGOs argued the main reason for the rising electricity
was Russia whose Gazprom dominates the Armenian energy market. Protests
were spread then using the social media hash tag #ElectricYerevan.
This time all indications point to a far more
refined remake of a US Color Revolution, this time with a credible
leader, 42-year old journalist and prison veteran from earlier
anti-government actions Pashinyan. Pashinyan has been careful to declare
if made Prime Minister he would not take Armenia out of Russia’s
Eurasian Economic Union. On May 1 he declared,
“We consider Russia as a strategic ally, our movement does not create threats for this…If I am elected [as the prime minister], Armenia will remain a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.”
At this juncture it is clear, despite Nikol
Pashinyan’s soothing words, that the Armenian events are not at all good
news for Moscow whose direct options are for the moment limited.
Why Armenia?
Armenia is a strategic ally of Moscow ever since
the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is bordered by two
hostile countries—Azerbaijan and Turkey. Her other neighbors are Iran
and Georgia. With the situation in Georgia precarious since the US
staged a Color Revolution in 2003 bringing the pro-NATO Mikhail Saakashvili
into power, were Armenia to come under influence of a leader determined
to pull the country away from Russian dependence, its major trading
partner and investor, it would result in some kind of civil war.
Already there are voices in Azerbaijan gleefully
anticipating such an outcome. On May 1 as the Armenian parliament
refused to vote Pashinyan in as Prime Minister, Azeri parliament member Gudrat Hasanguliyev
warned that the situation in Armenia might turn into a civil war. He
insisted that Azerbaijan should be prepared to use such a civil war as a
chance to retake the secessionist Nagorno-Karabakh whose population is majority Armenian. Since the Russian-brokered end to a war between a
US-backed Azeri army and Armenia in 1994 the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave
has been in an uneasy ceasefire. It was broken briefly in 2016 when
Azeri forces tried a military occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh before
being forced to backdown. All evidence at this point suggests there is a
dirty hand of the US NGOs and State Department pushing to take advantage
of the internal discontent inside Armenia to further weaken Russia and
its Eurasian Economic Union by at the minimum creating unrest and chaos
in Armenia. If this is so will be clear soon enough.
Source: https://www.globalresearch.ca/whats-washington-really-doing-in-armenia/5638983
The Moscow Times: New Armenia Will Stay With Russia, If Reluctantly
Earlier
this week, on May 1, the Republican majority in the National Assembly
of Armenia voted down Nikol Pashinyan’s candidacy for Prime Minister. A
“people’s candidate” supported by three other parliamentary factions,
Pashinyan responded by calling a general strike. The
next day, protesters shut down the entire country, including the road
to the Zvartnots International Airport. The Republicans caved,
announcing that for the next vote on May 8, they wouldn’t nominate their
candidate, and would support any candidate with secure one-third of the
vote, i.e. Pashinyan.
Enjoying a level of support unprecedented in Armenia’s history, Pashinyan is now on his way to taking the helm of the South Caucasus republic, which has historically been aligned with Russia. And to date, its age-old ally has, at least publically, stayed neutral. Both the Kremlin and Foreign Ministry have stressed that Moscow is not interfering. Pashinyan is playing along. “I’m confident that Russia, a nation that respects international law, is not interfering with Armenia’s domestic issues. I’m absolutely positive about it,” the protest leader said at a press conference last week.
Although Russia’s state-run media has compared Armenia’s protests to the Maidan revolution that toppled the Kremlin-friendly government in Ukraine in 2013, it has not unleashed its full propaganda force against the protests. The most biased piece of reporting, which was produced by the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, went out in search of a Western plot. With the United States increasingly disengaged from the region and the U.S. Department of State famously understaffed, this can’t have been an easy task. The only clue the paper was able to dig up was a “chubby lady” in the crowd who didn’t speak Armenian and had quite a negative opinion of Russia.
The emergence of a young, energetic democrat, independent from Russian oligarchs as a future leader of an allied country, however, does present Moscow with a challenge. Unlike the new generation of Ukrainian and Georgian leaders, Pashinyan doesn’t want to pick between Russia and the West. Instead, he is advocating an Armenia-centric approach.
“Pashinyan is very different from the kind of political elites that have so far dominated the Eurasian Economic Union,” Mikayel Zolyan, an analyst with the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center think tank, told the Moscow Times. “There is a lot of mistrust on the part of Moscow toward Pashinyan and his movement.”
Pashinyan’s record as a parliamentarian won’t necessarily impress the Kremlin either. A notable critic of the previous regime’s decision to join the Eurasian Economic Union, he called it “a threat to national security” and argued it would damage Armenia’s economy. But the 42-year-old politician has also demonstrated a unique ability to to reinvent himself. Over the last ten days, Pashinyan has given numerous interviews in which he endorsed Armenia’s current stance towards Russia.
“We are not going to make any sharp geopolitical moves,” Pashinyan said to Russian media last week. On Sunday, together with three other Yelk MPs, he met with a delegation of Russian lawmakers visiting Yerevan. “We said that Armenia should continue being a EEU, CSTO member,” he said, referring to the economic and security agreements it has with Russia.
The ties that bind
Opinions vary on just how deep Russia’s ties with Armenia go. Some have called the South Caucasus republic a client state of Russia, citing Yerevan’s binding military and trade agreements with Moscow and the presence of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri. (It’s worth noting too that the two countries have a joint air defense system, and that Russia’s Federal Security Service guards Armenia’s border with Turkey.)
Others point to the recently signed partnership agreement with the European Union and argue that Armenia has an increasingly diversified geopolitical stance. With Moscow and Yerevan rarely making their relationship public, it’s hard to assess what the real level of coordination is between the two. In return, Armenia has backed Russia in its confrontation with the West. It has supported Moscow in its diplomatic scandal over the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in Britian and voted against a UN resolution condemning the annexation of Crimea.
So far, however, those attempting to pull the Moscow card in Yerevan have not met with success. Throughout last week, Karen Karapetyan, Armenia’s acting Prime Minister, a former Gazprom executive with business interests in Russia, publicized his phone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev.
“Karapetyan was always seen as Russia’s guy in the region and in the country,” Paul Stronski, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, told the Moscow Times. But with little support from his Republican party of Armenia, Karapetyan lost his bid. His party didn’t nominate him for the Prime Minister’s office last week. “I think that Pashinyan’s and other opposition leaders’ promises have been heard,” said Stronski. “Moscow is watching closely and playing long term."
Moscow’s initial stoic reaction to Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution” might have been based on the calculation that Karapetyan would just slide into PM’s office, Zolyan of the Regional Studies Center said. But when Armenians rallied behind the opposition leader, Russia decided not to reconsider its neutrality. “Moscow is not ready to intervene in order to prevent Pashinyan from gaining power,” said Zolyan. “[The Kremlin] understands that the risks of intervening in Armenia are much higher than the risks of staying neutral and taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach.”
Even the former government’s pro-Russian orientation was mostly out of necessity, says Areg Galstyan, a Yerevan-based political scientist. “It’s hard to find a genuine pro-Russian politician in Armenia.” Given his comments this week, however, Pashinyan appears ready to sacrifice his skepticism towards Russia for the sake of fulfilling the promise of his revolution. But even that, however, doesn’t rule out uncertainty for Russia. If the opposition leader succeeds in making Armenia’s elections free and fair, as he now promises, we might see new challenges for the long-standing alliance with Russia.
The Founding Parliament, a radical political force that wants Armenia to break away from Russia, could get a second wind, after being barred during Serzh Sargsyan’s rule. In July 2016, a few of its members calling themselves Sasna Tsrer, or the Daredevils of Sassoun, seized a police station and killed two police officers.
At a rally last Wednesday on Yerevan’s Republic Square, a crowd suddenly started chanting "Sasna Tsrer! Sasna Tsrer!” and a placard saying “We shouldn’t forget our heroes. Sasna Tsrer shouldn’t be political prisoners” appeared on the square. One of the first things on the Founding Parliament’s agenda, should they be allowed into the political mainstream, will be “Armexit.” The term coined by the organization’s Vice President Varujan Avetisyan stands for Armenia’s “decolonization from Russia.”
“To create a sovereign national state we must first liberate our country from the Russian colonialism,” wrote Avetisyan last December. Should the group enter parliament, it’s unclear how the Kremlin might react.
Enjoying a level of support unprecedented in Armenia’s history, Pashinyan is now on his way to taking the helm of the South Caucasus republic, which has historically been aligned with Russia. And to date, its age-old ally has, at least publically, stayed neutral. Both the Kremlin and Foreign Ministry have stressed that Moscow is not interfering. Pashinyan is playing along. “I’m confident that Russia, a nation that respects international law, is not interfering with Armenia’s domestic issues. I’m absolutely positive about it,” the protest leader said at a press conference last week.
Although Russia’s state-run media has compared Armenia’s protests to the Maidan revolution that toppled the Kremlin-friendly government in Ukraine in 2013, it has not unleashed its full propaganda force against the protests. The most biased piece of reporting, which was produced by the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, went out in search of a Western plot. With the United States increasingly disengaged from the region and the U.S. Department of State famously understaffed, this can’t have been an easy task. The only clue the paper was able to dig up was a “chubby lady” in the crowd who didn’t speak Armenian and had quite a negative opinion of Russia.
The emergence of a young, energetic democrat, independent from Russian oligarchs as a future leader of an allied country, however, does present Moscow with a challenge. Unlike the new generation of Ukrainian and Georgian leaders, Pashinyan doesn’t want to pick between Russia and the West. Instead, he is advocating an Armenia-centric approach.
“Pashinyan is very different from the kind of political elites that have so far dominated the Eurasian Economic Union,” Mikayel Zolyan, an analyst with the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center think tank, told the Moscow Times. “There is a lot of mistrust on the part of Moscow toward Pashinyan and his movement.”
Pashinyan’s record as a parliamentarian won’t necessarily impress the Kremlin either. A notable critic of the previous regime’s decision to join the Eurasian Economic Union, he called it “a threat to national security” and argued it would damage Armenia’s economy. But the 42-year-old politician has also demonstrated a unique ability to to reinvent himself. Over the last ten days, Pashinyan has given numerous interviews in which he endorsed Armenia’s current stance towards Russia.
“We are not going to make any sharp geopolitical moves,” Pashinyan said to Russian media last week. On Sunday, together with three other Yelk MPs, he met with a delegation of Russian lawmakers visiting Yerevan. “We said that Armenia should continue being a EEU, CSTO member,” he said, referring to the economic and security agreements it has with Russia.
The ties that bind
Opinions vary on just how deep Russia’s ties with Armenia go. Some have called the South Caucasus republic a client state of Russia, citing Yerevan’s binding military and trade agreements with Moscow and the presence of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri. (It’s worth noting too that the two countries have a joint air defense system, and that Russia’s Federal Security Service guards Armenia’s border with Turkey.)
Others point to the recently signed partnership agreement with the European Union and argue that Armenia has an increasingly diversified geopolitical stance. With Moscow and Yerevan rarely making their relationship public, it’s hard to assess what the real level of coordination is between the two. In return, Armenia has backed Russia in its confrontation with the West. It has supported Moscow in its diplomatic scandal over the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in Britian and voted against a UN resolution condemning the annexation of Crimea.
So far, however, those attempting to pull the Moscow card in Yerevan have not met with success. Throughout last week, Karen Karapetyan, Armenia’s acting Prime Minister, a former Gazprom executive with business interests in Russia, publicized his phone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev.
“Karapetyan was always seen as Russia’s guy in the region and in the country,” Paul Stronski, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, told the Moscow Times. But with little support from his Republican party of Armenia, Karapetyan lost his bid. His party didn’t nominate him for the Prime Minister’s office last week. “I think that Pashinyan’s and other opposition leaders’ promises have been heard,” said Stronski. “Moscow is watching closely and playing long term."
Moscow’s initial stoic reaction to Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution” might have been based on the calculation that Karapetyan would just slide into PM’s office, Zolyan of the Regional Studies Center said. But when Armenians rallied behind the opposition leader, Russia decided not to reconsider its neutrality. “Moscow is not ready to intervene in order to prevent Pashinyan from gaining power,” said Zolyan. “[The Kremlin] understands that the risks of intervening in Armenia are much higher than the risks of staying neutral and taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach.”
Even the former government’s pro-Russian orientation was mostly out of necessity, says Areg Galstyan, a Yerevan-based political scientist. “It’s hard to find a genuine pro-Russian politician in Armenia.” Given his comments this week, however, Pashinyan appears ready to sacrifice his skepticism towards Russia for the sake of fulfilling the promise of his revolution. But even that, however, doesn’t rule out uncertainty for Russia. If the opposition leader succeeds in making Armenia’s elections free and fair, as he now promises, we might see new challenges for the long-standing alliance with Russia.
The Founding Parliament, a radical political force that wants Armenia to break away from Russia, could get a second wind, after being barred during Serzh Sargsyan’s rule. In July 2016, a few of its members calling themselves Sasna Tsrer, or the Daredevils of Sassoun, seized a police station and killed two police officers.
At a rally last Wednesday on Yerevan’s Republic Square, a crowd suddenly started chanting "Sasna Tsrer! Sasna Tsrer!” and a placard saying “We shouldn’t forget our heroes. Sasna Tsrer shouldn’t be political prisoners” appeared on the square. One of the first things on the Founding Parliament’s agenda, should they be allowed into the political mainstream, will be “Armexit.” The term coined by the organization’s Vice President Varujan Avetisyan stands for Armenia’s “decolonization from Russia.”
“To create a sovereign national state we must first liberate our country from the Russian colonialism,” wrote Avetisyan last December. Should the group enter parliament, it’s unclear how the Kremlin might react.
Source: https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/new-armenia-will-stay-with-russia-if-reluctantly-opinion-61343
Eurasianet: Following Armenian uprising, Azerbaijan’s saber rattling grows louder
Analysts say the recent escalation is an attempt to test the ties between Russia and Armenia's new government led by Nikol Pashinyan.
Azerbaijan has sharpened its threats of war against
Armenia in an apparent attempt to ratchet up tension over
Nagorno-Karabakh, the territory that both sides claim. Verbal threats
toward Armenia are nothing new for Azerbaijan, a state for which the
phrase “bellicose rhetoric” has become something of a journalistic
cliché. But Baku's rhetoric in the past has tended to couch military
threats in the conditional tense, a last resort if diplomatic
negotiations fail. Increasingly, however, the military option is being
portrayed as the only one.
“The developments unfolding in the world confirm that the international law does not work,” Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev tweeted on June 28. “If it did, Azerbaijani lands would have been freed from the invaders long ago.”
On July 2, the Azerbaijani armed forces started large-scale exercises, the scenario of which, the Ministry of Defense said in a statement, will be “the liberation of the occupied territories,” as Azerbaijan refers to Nagorno-Karabakh. And Azerbaijani state television has been airing a computer-simulated video of a potential victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, with artillery and tank attacks eventually leading to a prosperous redevelopment of the territory and a statue of Heydar Aliyev – the former president of Azerbaijan and Ilham's father – in front of the government building.
“It is the first time that Baku has displayed a video announcing, and forcing, the state to defeat the enemy militarily,” the independent Azerbaijani news agency Turan wrote in a June 2 analysis. “It is the first time Azerbaijan doesn't hide the exclusively military route to the resolution of the Karabakh problem.”
Azerbaijan's heightened rhetoric over the past week follows on a heavy PR push to glorify a modest advance inside the no-man's-land between Armenia and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan. And on June 26, Azerbaijan held a military parade in Baku.
Talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have stalled in recent years, and a diplomatic resolution of the Karabakh conflict seems farther away than ever. That may put Baku in the position of feeling as if war is its only option to regain what it considers its lost territory, from which hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis fled during the war in the early 1990s. Azerbaijan's government also, however, tends to use escalations – either in rhetoric or in actual fighting – as a means to force international mediators to put more effort into trying to resolve the conflict.
Armenian officials have played down the escalations. “The situation is under control. Regular activities are underway with no reasons to be concerned,” Armenia's Chief of the General Staff Artak Davtyan told reporters. “There is no immediate threat of war, yet we should always be ready for developments as the threat of war has always existed. [...] We proceed from the fact that a war may start at any time.”
Armenian reactions have tended to be determined by domestic politics, in particular the relationship to the new government led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. “The pro-Nikol crowd says there is nothing to be afraid of, it's not the first time this has been happening,” Yerevan-based political analyst Mikayel Zolyan told Eurasianet. “Anti-Nikol people are saying the threat of war is very big and Nikol is doing nothing about it.”
Armenians also have been concerned by the surprise appearance of several high-profile Russian figures at a conference in Azerbaijan titled “Azerbaijan – Russia's Only Ally in the South Caucasus.” Armenia and Russia have a treaty relationship through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a post-Soviet military alliance, and Armenia also is the only Caucasian member of the Russia-led economic bloc, the Eurasian Economic Union.
Nevertheless, the Russian participants – including members of the Russian Duma and Eurasianist ideologue Alexander Dugin – portrayed Azerbaijan as Russia's true ally, particularly after the rise of Pashinyan. The new Armenian leader has taken pains to reassure Russia of Yerevan's loyalty, but the Kremlin remains uneasy about the former opposition journalist with a history of pro-Western positions.
“Pashinyan's rise to power and the arrest of the close circles of [former leader] Serzh Sargsyan has completely changed the shape of Armenian-Russian relations,” said pundit Maxim Shevchenko, speaking at the conference. “Now Russia is gradually being excluded […] and the Russian president does not like it when people act like that with him.”
Another participant, Duma member Dmitriy Savelyev, called on Armenia to return Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan without preconditions. This prompted a response from the Armenian embassy in Moscow: “The Russian deputy should understand that in our fragile world every word is a shot fired, which could double the risk of escalating the situation and threaten the peaceful resolution of the conflict,” the embassy said in a statement.
In Armenia, “there is a worry that the Russians may be trying to punish Armenia through Azerbaijan,” Zolyan said.
Azerbaijani political analyst and historian Altay Goyushov also said the recent escalation appeared to be tied to Pashinyan and Russia, but said it remained unclear whether it was Moscow or Baku driving events. One possibility, he said, was that Russian President Vladimir Putin “wants to put pressure on Pashinyan and urges Aliyev to assist”; and another is that “Aliyev thinks that in this situation he can obtain Putin's approval for a military action against 'disobedient'-to-Russia Pashinyan.” Goyushov said he believed, however, that Baku would not undertake serious military action without clear approval from the Kremlin.
But Baku also is satisfied with the way things are going in Yerevan and so will not want to start a war now, said Fuad Chiragov, a foreign policy analyst at the Azerbaijani government-run think tank Center for Strategic Studies. “Azerbaijan carefully, patiently, with satisfaction observes the wave of corruption scandals and arrests of former officials and warlords,” Chiragov told Eurasianet. “Azerbaijan is not interested in interrupting the deconstruction process of the old system.”
“The developments unfolding in the world confirm that the international law does not work,” Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev tweeted on June 28. “If it did, Azerbaijani lands would have been freed from the invaders long ago.”
On July 2, the Azerbaijani armed forces started large-scale exercises, the scenario of which, the Ministry of Defense said in a statement, will be “the liberation of the occupied territories,” as Azerbaijan refers to Nagorno-Karabakh. And Azerbaijani state television has been airing a computer-simulated video of a potential victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, with artillery and tank attacks eventually leading to a prosperous redevelopment of the territory and a statue of Heydar Aliyev – the former president of Azerbaijan and Ilham's father – in front of the government building.
“It is the first time that Baku has displayed a video announcing, and forcing, the state to defeat the enemy militarily,” the independent Azerbaijani news agency Turan wrote in a June 2 analysis. “It is the first time Azerbaijan doesn't hide the exclusively military route to the resolution of the Karabakh problem.”
Azerbaijan's heightened rhetoric over the past week follows on a heavy PR push to glorify a modest advance inside the no-man's-land between Armenia and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan. And on June 26, Azerbaijan held a military parade in Baku.
Talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have stalled in recent years, and a diplomatic resolution of the Karabakh conflict seems farther away than ever. That may put Baku in the position of feeling as if war is its only option to regain what it considers its lost territory, from which hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis fled during the war in the early 1990s. Azerbaijan's government also, however, tends to use escalations – either in rhetoric or in actual fighting – as a means to force international mediators to put more effort into trying to resolve the conflict.
Armenian officials have played down the escalations. “The situation is under control. Regular activities are underway with no reasons to be concerned,” Armenia's Chief of the General Staff Artak Davtyan told reporters. “There is no immediate threat of war, yet we should always be ready for developments as the threat of war has always existed. [...] We proceed from the fact that a war may start at any time.”
Armenian reactions have tended to be determined by domestic politics, in particular the relationship to the new government led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. “The pro-Nikol crowd says there is nothing to be afraid of, it's not the first time this has been happening,” Yerevan-based political analyst Mikayel Zolyan told Eurasianet. “Anti-Nikol people are saying the threat of war is very big and Nikol is doing nothing about it.”
Armenians also have been concerned by the surprise appearance of several high-profile Russian figures at a conference in Azerbaijan titled “Azerbaijan – Russia's Only Ally in the South Caucasus.” Armenia and Russia have a treaty relationship through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a post-Soviet military alliance, and Armenia also is the only Caucasian member of the Russia-led economic bloc, the Eurasian Economic Union.
Nevertheless, the Russian participants – including members of the Russian Duma and Eurasianist ideologue Alexander Dugin – portrayed Azerbaijan as Russia's true ally, particularly after the rise of Pashinyan. The new Armenian leader has taken pains to reassure Russia of Yerevan's loyalty, but the Kremlin remains uneasy about the former opposition journalist with a history of pro-Western positions.
“Pashinyan's rise to power and the arrest of the close circles of [former leader] Serzh Sargsyan has completely changed the shape of Armenian-Russian relations,” said pundit Maxim Shevchenko, speaking at the conference. “Now Russia is gradually being excluded […] and the Russian president does not like it when people act like that with him.”
Another participant, Duma member Dmitriy Savelyev, called on Armenia to return Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan without preconditions. This prompted a response from the Armenian embassy in Moscow: “The Russian deputy should understand that in our fragile world every word is a shot fired, which could double the risk of escalating the situation and threaten the peaceful resolution of the conflict,” the embassy said in a statement.
In Armenia, “there is a worry that the Russians may be trying to punish Armenia through Azerbaijan,” Zolyan said.
Azerbaijani political analyst and historian Altay Goyushov also said the recent escalation appeared to be tied to Pashinyan and Russia, but said it remained unclear whether it was Moscow or Baku driving events. One possibility, he said, was that Russian President Vladimir Putin “wants to put pressure on Pashinyan and urges Aliyev to assist”; and another is that “Aliyev thinks that in this situation he can obtain Putin's approval for a military action against 'disobedient'-to-Russia Pashinyan.” Goyushov said he believed, however, that Baku would not undertake serious military action without clear approval from the Kremlin.
But Baku also is satisfied with the way things are going in Yerevan and so will not want to start a war now, said Fuad Chiragov, a foreign policy analyst at the Azerbaijani government-run think tank Center for Strategic Studies. “Azerbaijan carefully, patiently, with satisfaction observes the wave of corruption scandals and arrests of former officials and warlords,” Chiragov told Eurasianet. “Azerbaijan is not interested in interrupting the deconstruction process of the old system.”
Source: https://eurasianet.org/s/following-armenian-uprising-azerbaijans-saber-rattling-grows-louder
There is no doubt in my mind that it was a wide-ranging political conspiracy that brought Nikol Pashinyan into power. I believe Serj Sargsyan and Armen Sargsyan were personally involved in it. Perhaps reluctantly. As of now, we don't know their exact role. I strongly suspect Levon Petrosyan's hand in what happened as well. What truly worries me however is Moscow's not so tacit approval of what happened in Armenia this spring. We see what was done, but we are left to theorize why it was done. I personally believe there is an Artsakh/Karabakh connection to all this. This connection may manifest itself in the coming years. Perhaps sooner. We have to wait and see but the signs from the battle-lines are not encouraging. In any case, all of a sudden, Armenia went from being a nation run by wealthy Chobans to a nation run by Western-financed activists with Globalist aspirations; and it seems to have been made possible by a collaboration between Russia and Western/Globalist interests. At the end of the day, if what happened this April was in-line with Moscow's wishes, then trouble lies ahead. If what happened this April went against Moscow's wishes, perhaps even worst troubles may lie ahead. Therefore, I think difficult times lie ahead for Armenia. This is perhaps the first blog commentary I recall writing reluctantly. I did not have my heart into it, but I felt I had to. In any case, like it or not, agree with it or not, these are my thoughts and concerns. In a nutshell: I don't think anything good, at east for the long term, can be expected to come of what happened in Armenia this spring. I think it was all part of an international conspiracy against Artsakh.
ReplyDeletePS: There is nothing I want more than to be wrong on all accounts.
I also want to say that I am very happy with two things Nikol has done thus far. One, he has been singing all the right songs about Russia. I realize they don't have a choice in this regard. Nevertheless, that is to their credit. Two, he has allowed the NSS to finally go after one of the country's most disgusting wealthy Chobans. However, I hope Manvel's arrest and public humiliation (as much as he deservs it) is not a mere PR gesture to appease or distract the public, and I certainly hope it's not a measure to discredit or weaken the country's powerful "erkrapah" (Artsakh war veterans union), who have been very active in politics in the country's post-war years.
DeleteYou're not too familiar with Nikol's position as regards Artsakh. His cabinet has truly patriotic, pragmatic members. Nikol is cleaning house. The fight against corruption is real, and it's possible. Look at Georgia--they cleaned house well.
DeletePlease refrain from making assumptions about me. I am all too familiar with Nikol's thoughts regarding Artsakh. Only recently did he moderate his stance on the issue. It was obviously done to make himself more politically palatable. Nikol and company (which includes Levon Petrosyan) have long had an anti-Artsakh streak running in them. They blame most of Armenia's problems on Artsakh and the "Karabakh Clan". This will eventually reveal itself in the coming years, perhaps sooner.
DeleteMoreover, people like you need to stop looking at Georgia as a standard. Despite having very close relations with its Turkic/Islamic neighbors, despite being on the sea, despite being a major tourist destination, despite having been lavishly showered with monetary gifts by the West, Georgia today is no better off than Armenia, and Georgians don't live any better than Armenians. What Saakashvili did was eliminate the country's numerous mafias by turning the state into a major mafia. And in the process, he lost 20% of Georgia's territory. Armenia cannot afford to follow the steps of Saakashvili's Georgia.
Regarding the "fight against corruption": Thus far, all the arrests that have been made in Armenia are of low level criminals and thugs. In the big picture, individuals like Ara Vardanyan and Manvel Grigoryan are small/insignificant players. None of the major oligarchs and monopolists (those who control virtually all of Armenia's economy and don't pay their fair share of taxes) have been touched. Most probably, they will not be distressed. Thus far, Nikol's "fight against corruption" has been a show, a window dressing, to placate and impress the ignorant masses. All in all, it's a play on the people's sentiments and emotions.
Regarding "patriots" in Nikol's govermnent: I am looking hard but I still don't see any. Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan is a young and inexperienced man who made a living all these years representing NATO. Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan seems like a decent man and a professional, but I don't know much about his patriotism. I will therefore refrain from making any comments about him. Perhaps you referring to all the other garbage in Nikol's government that have been for many years finance by George Soros and the CIA? I suggest you take a close look at the government Nikol formed. Other than the Foreign Minister, Nikol's newly formed government looks like a center for Western and Globalist agents. These people will prove more damaging to Armenia in the long-term than the backward Chobans they replaced. I don't expect anything good to come out of all this.
As I said in the blog commentary: If what happened in Armenia this spring went against the wishes of the Kremlin, them we can expect some very serious problems going forward. If what happened was in-line with the Kremlin's wishes, then we can expect some very serious problems as well. Simply put: Russian officials would not agree to Western/Globalist funded individuals to come to power in Armenia if there was not some nasty agenda at play that involved Moscow. If Nikol somehow managed to maneuver himself into power against the wishes of the Kremlin, then have no doubt that Moscow is planning Nikol's demise at I write this. We can also expect closer Moscow-Baku relations as a result. It does not look good for the future either way. It does not look good on the border either.
The following news items should worry everyone regardless of political affiliation -
DeleteBaku hosts ‘Azerbaijan - Russia's only ally in Caucasus’ conference:
https://www.azernews.az/nation/134184.html
Following Armenian uprising, Azerbaijan’s saber rattling grows louder:
https://eurasianet.org/s/following-armenian-uprising-azerbaijans-saber-rattling-grows-louder
Political analyst: Azerbaijan - Russia's main strategic partner in Caucasus:
https://www.azernews.az/nation/134185.html
Aggravated Situation Around Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Exclave:
https://jamestown.org/program/aggravated-situation-around-azerbaijans-nakhchivan-exclave/
Azerbaijan Continues to Maintain Military Build-Up Along Artsakh Line of Contact:
http://asbarez.com/172746/azerbaijan-continues-to-maintain-military-build-up-along-artsakh-line-of-contact/
Azerbaijan doesn’t pull back heavy military build-up since April, says Artsakh:
https://armenpress.am/eng/news/937309.html
Աղասի Ենոքյան. «Սահմանում վիճակը ոչ թե լարված է, այլ չափազանց լարված է, կուտակումները հսկայական են»:
https://www.aravot.am/2018/06/28/967331/
Գեներալ Նորատ Տեր-Գրիգորյանց․ Հայաստանի ղեկավարությունը չի կատարում իր ուղիղ պարտականությունները:
https://news.am/arm/news/458208.html
«Նիկոլն ու Սերժը միասին էին ծրագրել հեղափոխությունը, փաստեր ու վիդեոներ կան». Ռոբերտ Սիմոնյան:
http://bavnews.am/%D5%B6%D5%AB%D5%AF%D5%B8%D5%AC%D5%B6-%D5%B8%D6%82-%D5%BD%D5%A5%D6%80%D5%AA%D5%A8-%D5%B4%D5%AB%D5%A1%D5%BD%D5%AB%D5%B6-%D5%A7%D5%AB%D5%B6-%D5%AE%D6%80%D5%A1%D5%A3%D6%80%D5%A5%D5%AC-%D5%B0%D5%A5/
There is an aura of emptiness and no comment is possible in a sea of hypothetical denouements. By whichever angle we tackle this conundrum of Nikol's rise to power we get nowhere but into an inexorable cul de sac. In other words the future is fraught with dangerous imponderables. We need to wait and see what this Nikol's moves are going to be. So far he has remained quiescent, and none of his outlandish promises to the street have gotten even a kick start. It does not augur too well for Hayastan. The eventual dissolution of our national state would be signaled if ( God forbid) there is a retreat from Artsakh. Artsakh should not be even a point of discussion. Do the Azeries want Artsakh, or " their lost territories" or do they want to liquidate the Armenian state. Russia is already controlling the Caucasus, will Russia get more control in the Caucasus if Armenia is eliminated in favor of Azerbaijan/Turkey ? The USA and Israel have Georgia as their proxy colony; they both have unbridled free trade with Azeries. What are the benefits for Russia to broker a deal which means Armenia's weakening or dissolution ? What are the benefits for the USA-Israel to wish the demise of Hayastan and the bulking or strengthening of Azeries and the Turkish Arc. ? And where does Persia stand in the middle of this ? Persia has an irredentist problem, Azeri irredentism . It would not serve Persian interests to move their border closer to Azeries than it is now. These answers are not going to come out from the mouths of run the mill basement grade politicians like Nikol and company. Like Arevordi says, there must be some unseen dark forces with dark unfathomable agenda's for the region.
DeleteThere is a very severe lack of understanding regarding the situation in and around Artsakh. It's like when the topic of discussion comes to Artsakh, all rationality is thrown out the window.
DeleteFirst of all, in the eyes of the region's major political players, including that of Russia, an Armenian retreat from Artsakh does not necessarily equate to Armenia's demise. From their angle, it's a way to establish trade and energy transfer routes free of disputes and fighting and geopolitical competition. We however have a different take on the matter. Yes, a major retreat from Artsakh would be a historic blunder, and one that will have grave long-term consequences for the Armenian state. But, we created the situation we are in today.
We need to be mindful of the fact that Baku is busy making secret deals with Moscow, Washington, London, Tehran, Ankara, Tbilisi, Tel Aviv and others. We are not aware of what's being discussed and what deals are being made. Azeris have had the money, the internal stability and the political foresight to sell their case. And, due to their wealth, their military keeps growing. And, they are sustaining military pressure along Armenia's borders. All this, while we Armenians continue obsessing over which oligarch stole what. Let me also inform you that the Azeri military today is not the same as the one we defeated 25 years ago. Back then, Azerbaijan did not have trained combat units like we did. Many of our men were Afghan combat war veterans. Azeris did not have combat units in Afghanistan. This is why they were forced to hire large numbers of mercenaries. Mercenaries do no perform well in combat. Today, it's a different story.
All this, while we Armenians continue obsessing for civil society, human rights, press freedom, transparent elections, corruption, etc.
We Armenians are gradually resorting back to our genetic traits, the ones that has kept Armenia small and endangered. With the current geopolitical climate in the region, and with the current mindset in Armenia, when a major war resumes in Artsakh, it will get very ugly very fast and we will lose significant amounts men, materials and territory. In my opinion, Nikol was put into power, with our stupid people's wish nonetheless, to ensure Artsakh's settlement.
Theoretically, Russia is not properly or efficiently controlling the south Caucasus. Russia has not even had direct control over Armenia. Russia is just there as a geopolitical behemoth threatening those who threaten its interests. Moscow wants to have direct control over the region politically, militarily and economically. Because Armenians have been absent in Moscow as a political factor, Azeris have instead filled the void. For many years, Baky has been spending great efforts in convincing Russians that the best route for Russia in the south Cauacsus would be to support the Azeri cause. Armenians on the other hand have been running to Western capitals to show Moscow that it can lose Armenia in case it supports Baku. We all know that when push comes to shove, that is when the major war begins between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the West will be no where in sight. In fact, they will be supporting Baku. Now, imagine if Russia backed Baku in a fight against Artsakh. Do you think Armenians would stand a chance? Do you think the West will come to help Armenia? Not even Iran will lift a finger because Azeris have been a very prominent presence in Tehran as well. Besides, Tehran has serious problems elsewhere.
Yerevan should have spent the last 25-plus years trying to convince the Kremlin that Artsakh unification with Armenia was in Russia's geostrategic interests. Yet, all we did was show them that if they don't support us we will look to the West. Do you see how stupid our "complimentary politics" have been? Our people's political incompetence is profound. We as a people are responsible for all the back pages in our history.
The problem with Artsakh goes back 25-plus years. The territory should have been annexed by Armenian authorities back in 1994, the latest. It would have been easier to do so back then when the Soviet Union had just dissolved than now, with all the major powers resurging in the region. Had we done so, it would have been a totally different geopolitical calculus today. Every single Armenian administration, from Levon to Nikol, has betrayed Artsakh. It's because Armenia's leaders continue serving the whims of the "international community". It's because Armenians continue having a Western fetish. And some say, it's because all of Armenia's leaders since independence have been foreign agents. Whatever the case may be, Azeris proved we are the stupid ones, and we may be slowly losing Russia's trust and perhaps support. What I am saying regarding Russia pertains only to Artsakh, not Armenia. Russia will support Armenia's territorial integrity at all cost. As long as the region remains populated by Turkic/Islamic peoples, that calculus will not change.
DeleteThe problem has always been Armenia's weak foreign policy. Whereas Turkey and Azerbaijan continually show an aggressive and hostile stance towards Armenia, Armenia's politicians have always been very reserved and careful in their responses, thinking that they would get bonus points in front of the large powers, for the fact that they are acting "democratic" and "abiding the international law".
DeleteIt is this spineless approach of Armenia's politicians that has brought us to this point today. We are not aggressive politically, and we are afraid that we will be labeled "aggressors" or "occupants" by others. Whereas Azerbaijan and Turkey have never cared about that BS. For reasons I cannot fathom, Armenia's foreign policy has always been to show weakness and compliance as a sign of "strength". No wonder why no one takes us seriously. To top it all off, we also have the whole Genocide recognition agenda that we push 24/7, which makes us look even weaker in front of everyone. Just imagine, we are viewed as victims the same way modern-day war refugees are. Is that how we want to represent ourselves to the world? For the majority of Armenians, yes. But in politics, we never stop getting run over.
The sad thing on top of all this is, whenever we've had a leader, or an individual, who had the guts to defy this victimhood/passive-aggressiveness/reactive policy throughout our history, he was either dethroned, assassinated, usurped or betrayed by his fellow countrymen.
Scholar Armen Ayvazyan has continuously voiced his opinion on this matter. Though some of his views may seem extreme, it is important to look back at this piece of paper back from 2007, written at the end of the Kocharyan era.
Excerpts in English: Foreign Policy of Armenia in the Framework of The Armenian Question
http://www.ararat-center.org/?art=3&l=eng&p=22
Full text in Armenian:
ՀԱՅԱՍՏԱՆԻ ՀԱՆՐԱՊԵՏՈՒԹՅԱՆ ԱՐՏԱՔԻՆ
ՔԱՂԱՔԱԿԱՆՈՒԹՅՈՒՆԸ
ՀԱՅԿԱԿԱՆ ՀԱՐՑԻ ՀԱՄԱՏԵՔՍՏՈՒՄ
http://www.ararat-center.org/upload/files/Armenian_Foreign_Policy_ARM.pdf
Ռազմիկ Արտաշես,
DeleteRegarding you suggestion that Armenia should be aggressive, I don't agree. And I can take only so much of Armen Ayvazyan.
Let's put aside our egos/pride and recognize that Armenia is too small, too poor, too dependent, too isolated and too weak to play aggressive, especially in a neighborhood overpopulated with Turkic/Islamic peoples. Armenia instead needs to play very smart. Armenia needs political foresight and agility, and internal stability. We Armenians simply can't match Turkic aggression. The perceived political weakness of our nation comes from a natural/instinctual attempt to survive in a very hostile environment. It's like when an animal in the wild plays dead to not get killed by a larger animal. Jews have had similar tactics of survival, albeit on a much higher and much more sophisticated level. In any case, we Armenians have no choice but to use our weakness as our strength. This is not the Armenia of the classical era, when the nation was a significant regional power.
There were a couple of things we could have done in the past 25-plus years to ensure Artsakh's reunification with Armenia. Foremost, we should have outright annexed the territory back in 1994. The mid-1990s was a time when Azerbaiian was totally defeated, Russia had very serious internal problems, Turkey was still afraid of Russia, Georgia was in chaos, Iran was nowhere in sight and Western powers had not yet fully jumped into the region. If reunification was going to be done, that was the best time to do it. Some Armenians at the time realized this. Levon Petrosyan obviously had other plans. In fact, he was put in power by foreign interests to make sure Armenia did not succeed as a nation-state. That is why he allowed the historic looting of the country. That is why he kept the country in the cold and dark during the war years. That is why he did his best to hold back Armenian military units in Artsakh.
His successors, Kocharyan and Sargsyan were not much better in this regard either as they allowed "international community" to set the agenda for the conflict's settlement. They all, at least on the surface, agreed to everything that the powers in question were putting on paper. This essentially was Artsakh's betrayal. This severe lack of political backbone and strategic maneuvering by our leaders have given rise to persistent rumors that all of our post-Soviet leaders have been agents of foreign powers.
Although the "Armenian Street" loves him, because the slew the beast, Nikol is clearly an agent of foreign powers as well. He is in power today to carryout an international/supranational agenda. I suspect it's connected to Artsakh. On the surface, however, it will seem wonderful for a while as the new regime goes after low level thugs and criminals. However, the long term side effects of this regime will prove very damaging. As I say in the body of my commentary, if the previous regime flirted with Western powers through a window, this regime has the potential to open wide all its doors to them. My primary concerns are increased activities by the CIA, IMF, USAID, Monsanto, British Council, Open Society, and of course an inundation of American pop culture and homosexual propaganda. I also think Artsakh will eventually end up getting seriously hurt one way or another as a result of all this.
Maybe "aggressive" is not the right word. I would say having a political backbone and being more proactive in our foreign policy. At the very least, whenever Turkey or Azerbaijan make hostile comments about Armenia in public platforms like the UN, we should use those same opportunities as well.
DeleteWhen I say relying on our weakness as our strength, I mean ONLY relying on our weakness as our strength, which is what I see we are doing currently, for the most part.
The only good thing that I see so far though is the military's mindset. I have a feeling that after the April war, our military had a shakeup and started taking itself more seriously. I believe the reason we now have tensions in Nakhichevan more often than Artsakh is because we are taking extra measures to protect it, and Azeris potentially wanting to find a weaker spot. Even there, if what the MoD is saying is true, the military is taking punitive measures. There are even talks that Armenians have acquired newer positions within Nakhichevan. We will never know for sure, but there are videos coming out here and there. So I just have a hunch that the military is taking the Azeris' provocations more seriously now.
There are also talks of acquiring fighter aircraft from Russia as well as other equipment. Let's wait and see.
Regarding Nikol, I really don't believe he will last that long, with or without Russia's approval. As you've mentioned, he's a weak leader. Once his PRs of going after the criminals and thugs ends and people realize that their salaries, pensions haven't increased and other day-to-day improvements are not noticeable, they will go against him. They only supported him out of the hatred for Serj Sargsyan. And this is where we will find out if Moscow has a candidate planned to take his place.
DeleteAs for the Artsakh issue, your arguments make sense and the assumption you make indeed give reason to worry that something bad can happen to Artsakh, but I pray to God that we do not prove ourselves incompetent on the battlefield. The MoD is still pursuing the previous minister's plans and is, at least on the surface, showing its willingness to turn the armed forces more effective. I would say it is still too early to find out what will exactly happen, but let's pray that the MoD is actually working on the military this time and preparing it to counter the next unavoidable offensive.
Ռազմիկ Արտաշես, Armenia's military is indeed taking things seriously. The real problem, as I see it, is on the political side of the equation. We can have the most powerful military in the world, if it is not used properly by our political leaders, it's useless. In any case, I think Armenia itself is well protected. I don't see a danger to Armenia from a military perspective. [the danger I see is civilizational] My fear is that the new regime in Yerevan (which may indirectly be a Levon Petrosyan led government) may allow Azeris to take significant territories in Artsakh in major war. When I hear Nikol say "Baku needs to deal with Stepanakert directly instead of Yerevan", I hear him saying "Stepanakert is on its own". I fear behind-the-scenes deals. I fear an international/supranational conspiracy. I hope I am wrong.
DeleteArevordi, that I 100% agree. Ter-Petrosyan was close to making a suicidal deal. Nikol is more likely to give territories than Kocharyan or Sargsyan (though there was a feeling that the latter was close to inking a deal), similar to Ter-Petrosyan.
DeleteIf I recall correctly, however, Ter-Petrosyan and Serj Sargsyan have also used the term "Baku needs to deal with Stepanakert directly instead of Yerevan". I haven't really understood why, some say it's a way of making Baku de facto recognize Artsakh.
I personally haven't liked the idea of having 2 Armenian Republics. A lot of things could have been done in 1994 to our favor. Norat Ter-Grigoryants, whom you've cited above, has a lot to say regarding the Artsakh war in an interview done last year:
Աշխարհի հայերը/Ashxarhi Hayer- Norat Ter-Grigoryanc 29.01.2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imCDo36aD4g
As I said in my blog commentary, I am wondering if the recent regime change was orchestrated to give Nikol the "honor" of betraying Artsakh at some point in the future. Speaking of suicidal deals: There was also the one almost made by Vazgen Sargsyan and Karen Demirjyan back in 1999. Most Armenians today however are in denial of it. Most people are simply unable to wrap their minds around what the two idiots were preparing to do in 1999. Luckily, Hunanyan's team put an end to it. In any case, post-Soviet Armenian politics has been like visiting one nightmare after another. It's been a series very unfortunately events. Think whatever you want about me, but I firmly believe that we Armenians are not ready for independence, especially in a place like the south Caucasus where one wrong move can kill you. We have not yet made a deadly move only because Moscow has been watching over our shoulders. I think we Armenians, as we currently exists, are not ready to safely tackle the serious problems living in the south Caucasus brings. I have been a nationalist most of my life. Until about ten years ago, I thought the world revolved around Armenia/Armenians. No longer. Today, I don't think that we as a people deserve any more than what Abkhazians, Ossetians or Chechens have.
DeleteNorat Ter Grigoryants is one of the few military men in Armenia I respect. He is a real combat officer, a real Armenian patriot and a real man. The type of man he represents is an endangered species today. It was due to Soviet trained and educated combat officers like him that we ultimately won the war in the early 1990s, and not because of our bearded fedayis. In the interview you posted, Norat said, "as all young boys we could not wait to grow up to become soldiers"... Imagine that; Armenian boys wanting to grow up to become soldiers and not "bizinisman". We have fallen so low in such a short period of time. Thank our Western fetish.
Enjoyed the post thoroughly. A lot of enigma revolves around the events of regime change. Lots of variables and unknowns. I have gone back and viewed a lot of Nikol’s old videos to compare his behavior and mannerisms to how he is now as a PM. Arevordi you are right, he has been singing the right tunes, especially regarding The Bear. One thing I couldn’t help but notice is how similarly he is being in his infancy as PM as compared to how Putin was when that drunk Yeltsin first put his arm around Putin’s neck and introduced him to the Russian masses. Putin was also brought in as a replacement patsy for the Jewish oligarchs of the day as a replacement for Yeltsin, and yet a very unique, almost magical transformative change occurred with that man and he outplayed a dozen of Russia’s Jewish overlords and made an example of their leader Khodokovsky and put him in a cage. My point is, sometimes titles, power, and suddenly being thrust into the geopolitical limelight can have transformative changes on individuals and they can go from Patsy to Grossmeister due to some psychogeopolitical subconscious change which manifests itself in the actions of said Patsy. I’m not saying Nikol is the next Putin in fact I am holding my breathe a bit longer, but, you have got to admit he does not seem like the yapping podium chihuahua he once acted like.
ReplyDeleteSassounci Davit,
DeleteI'm afraid you are being euphoric and very wishful. I didn't expect it from you. But I understand. People are making all kinds of excuses for Nikol. At a psychological level, it's because of the deep hatred they had towards the ousted Chobans. Nikol is their savior. Nikol cannot do wrong, at least while the current honeymoon lasts. Consequently, Armenians are not properly assessing what is actually known about Nikol and friends. By nature and character, Nikol and friends are neo-Bolsheviks and Globalists, and they can prove more damaging to Armenia than the backward Chobans they replaced. Also, being that I am a Putinist, I say Nikol and Putin should not casually be used in the same sentence. Let's take a brief look at the two:
In the 1980s, Putin was a KGB officer stationed in East Germany (he was therefore at the forefront of Eurasian geopolitics at a very historic time). Nikol was previously one of Levon Petrosyan's street activist and he later got Western funding to open his opposition newspaper. Putin was brought to power by an internal coup by elements within the FSB (Putin had gained the trust of the Jewish oligarchs during the 1990s, the FSB then made Yeltsin an offer he could not refuse). Nikol was brought to power by a conglomeration of Western funded NGOs, Anglo-American institutions and George Soros financed activists. Putin is a nationalist, a conservative and a Christian. Nikol is a neo-Bolshevik, Globalist and therefore an atheist.
If you want to see what a man will do when in power, look at who/what stands behind him. Behind Putin stood Russia's nationalists, conservatives and Christians. Behind Nikol stands Westernizers, Globalizers and atheists. Nikol is not in the driver's seat in Armenia. Those who put him in power (which I strongly suspect includes Levon Petrosyan) have an agenda for him to carry-out. I don't know what this agenda is. I suspect it's connected to Artsakh. It's most probably also an effort to put Armenia under Supranational control. If the Kremlin is ok with it, it's worrying. If the Kremlin is not ok with it, it's worrying. In any case, in the pursuit of this agenda, Nikol will be allowed to do some housecleaning. His "fight against corruption" will be done mostly as PR/distraction for the masses. As long as Nikol is not going after the big name criminals in the country, those that control virtually all of Armenia's economy and are the source of most of Armenia's socioeconomic problems, and we all know who they are, his fight against corruption will ultimately prove meaningless. Armenia will remain poor, underdeveloped and dependent. Armenians will continue complaining and of course leaving the country.
However, more important than the fight against corruption is the very dangerous toxins Nikol's newly appointed administration will be importing into the country. His newly appointed ministers are fully capable of exposing Armenia to increased levels of Westernization and Globalization. In other words, IMF loans; GMOs and vaccinations; increased homosexual and feminist propaganda; increased operations by the USAID the British Council, CIA, Mossad, MI6; meddling in Armenia's education system; etc. We are already seeing many signs pertaining to this. What I am essentially saying is that Armenia's Westernization and Globalization will prove more dangerous to the country in the long-run than the corruption of our Chobans in Armani suites.
All this will begin making sense in several years. So, for now, I don't expect to be understood or agreed with. So, let's just agree to disagree for now.
Arevordi, don’t worry I’m still maintaining my pragmatism LOL, however as part of that pragmatism we have to look at every angle, no matter how unlikely, it is possible that transformative changes occur in individuals thrust onto the stage. With Nikol, yes he has a dubious past, that is why I also said despite my speculation of change in his character, I am still holding my breath. The huge conundrum here is, if he was not tapped by Moscow, then why did they sit idly by. Conversely, if he WAS tapped, then why him? Your “fall guy” scenario is plausible but again Sargisyan seemed also likely to go along with some settlement on Arstakh, so why bother with Nikol?
DeleteIt could also be possible that the Bear and the West decided on a collaboration of sorts to settle the Artsakh issue through an intermediary figure such as Nikol, though this would not bode well for us at all because such a settlement will most likely come mostly at Armenia’s expense, geopolitically speaking.
As far as the corruption, my take is that it’s too early to speculate wether it’s all for show or not. There is no way Nikol or anyone for that matter could inside of a month come off of regime change in Armenia and lop off heads of all the heavy hitter Chobans. You have to admit though, their invincibility has been curbed significantly. 4 months ago Nemec Rubo would never stop his Limo and make a U turn for a bunch of women on the streets, yet he did just that 3-4 weeks ago when some women blocked his path and told him to fuck off. Dodi Gago’s Bodyguard arrest, sachik questioning, sachik’s crackhead son’s arrest, Lfik Samo’s Supermarket chain tax scandal and how he is now fucked monetarily. These cocksuckers used walk around with impunity with grins, now they are being managed by the government to at least SOME degree. It may not be enough for you and me, and believe me my friend, for me it’s not enough, they should all undergo summary execution by hanging from lamp posts in the streets of Yerevan 1979 Iranian revolution style or shot by a firing squad. But still, it’s still something of a little progress seeing them sweating a little now. Also, can you name some of the “big names” you would like to see be punished?
Artsakh’s issue has been handled passive aggressively for far too long. But we can’t blame merely the governing bodies of the past 25 years, we the people also had moral responsibility to settle more, the 120,000 population has been more or less stagnant for the last 20 years, why? Because Hyes love to sit at European, Yerevan, and American coffee shops and jack off to each other’s material displays, that’s why. Because even Syrian Armenians getting fucked in their ass in Kessab treated Artsakh as a layover on their way to “Amerika hajis” so they can start their “bizzznesss”, Arstakh simply is not good enough for the faggot trendy Syrian Armenian that barely escaped a war zone. As you say, these traits are genetic and uniquely Armenian. If I took 100,000 Africans and air dropped them in Artsakh or Azeris for that matter, in 5 years the population would be 250,000 with farmland and livestock as far as the eye can see. Yet 100,000 Armenians in their ancestral land they bled for 20 years ago somehow cannot fuck their women hard enough or want to work hard enough to cultivate the land,grow the population, set up progress, and secure their claims on their indigenous rights. We must change this type of genetic mental imprinting because it literally is chastrating us as a people.
In my commentary I do acknowledge that the Chobans have lost significant amount of power and that, at least at face value, is a good thing. I also acknowledge that at least for the short term the new regime will be beneficial for the country not only because it is doing some long overdue housecleaning but also because there is a positive feel/perception in the so-called Street for the first time in perhaps 30 years. In case I am not making my point clear, I want to say again that my main concern here is civilization and geopolitical. This regime (take a close look at Nikol's ministerial appointments) has the potential to open the floodgates for Westernization and Globalization, with all the poisons that such a thing entails. This in the long term will prove more damaging for Armenia than all the stinking Chobans combined. I also fear a Supranational conspiracy over Artsakh. Again, Nikol and company are the last people in Armenia to be hardlined over Artsakh. I disagree with you that Serj Sargsyan or Robert Kocharyan would agree to major land concessions. The two did their best to delay the matter, even though they may have realized that it was inevitable. It now looks like that they, the Karabakh Clan, finally decided to wash their hands of the sin.
DeleteFinally, I want to again make the point that if what happened this spring had the Kremlin's blessing, we can expect problems going forward. Ask yourself, why would the Kremlin support bringing Anglo-American-Globalist forces into power in Armenia, if it was not giving Armenia the rope with which it is planning to hang it with? And if what happened this spring went against the Kremlin's wishes, then needless to say we can expect some very serious problems going forward. In both cases, I think Artsakh will come out the main loser in all this.
As I say in my commentary, if Nikol wants to impress someone like me with regards to the "fight against corruption", he would have to execute at least one or two of the country's worst criminals and throw the rest in jail. As to who they are, I would say all the nicknamed Chobans who have made a good living looting the country during the past 25-plus years. But, I would start with the only non-Choban in the bunch. Of course I am talking about Levon Petrosyan. All of Armenia's pains today (including our failures in Artsakh) can be traced back to Levon's toxic rule. If anyone deserves to be hanged in public, it's him. Levon however will not be touched because Nikol is his protégé and I also expect Levon to have had a hand in what happened this spring.
I agree with everything else you wrote, which is why I consistently blame the "Street" (including the worthless Diaspora) for most of Armenia's problems. Anyway, I always look forward to your comments because I really enjoy your intelligent sarcasm/humor and style of writing.
PS: When you mentioned air dropping Africans into Armenia/Artsakh, I really hope you were talking about White/European Africans. Bring a few thousand Dutch/Boer farmers into Armenia and watch how they will blossom. They are hard workers. They are family oriented and Christian. They are intelligent and innovative. They don't compliant and they mind their own business. Their children make excellent soldiers. They are organized and disciplined. Within a year or two, they'll have the prettiest and cleanest towns/villages in Armenia, and they'll significantly boost the country's agricultural output. A small group of such farmers will put to shame all the farmers of the country combined. One of the problems with our genetic makeup is the lack of good admixture in our genetic pool during the last few thousand years. Being "genetically pure", at least in our case, is not an advantage in anything. In any case, Russians are needless to say much smarter than us in this regard as well -
‘A matter of life & death’: 15,000 white South African farmers seek refuge in Russia - report: https://www.rt.com/business/432375-russia-south-africa-farmers/
Dear Arevordi,
DeleteFrom what I know from talking to my relatives in yerevan russia was not behind nikol, it only did not prevent him from getting power because russians were afraid that they would see chaos in our country. Nikol was smart enough to be in touch with moscow to let them know that he is not going to persue any kind of anti russian direction and moscow was satisfied with that. Nikol knows he cant hold power if he goes against the bear and the bear knows all armenians hate Serzh so the two are ok with eachother right now. Also forget about warning armenians about nikols team because no one is going to listen to you for a very long time to come. I dont know if you are in armenia right now but please be careful with what you say about nikol in public.
"First of all, in the eyes of the region's major political players, including that of Russia, an Armenian retreat from Artsakh does not necessarily equate to Armenia's demise."
Delete- Azerbaijan does not need Nagorno-Karakakh. Azerbaijan is the biggest country is Transcaucasia, it is fabulously rich in oil, it is a potentially wealthy country. They even have caviar in the Caspian Sea. So Azerbaijan simply does not need Karabakh for its prosperity or for its existence. By contrast, Armenia is living at the very edge. Karabakh is necessary. A symbiotic relationship between Armenia and Karabakh, especially a symbiotic economic relationship, is essential for Armenia’s survival. Without Karabakh, Armenia is in danger of disappearing as an independent country. The regions main players know this all too well, and sleep much tighter at night with Armenia serving as a thicker buffer, especially Iran, especially Russian, and including China.
"When I hear Nikol say "Baku needs to deal with Stepanakert directly instead of Yerevan", I hear him saying "Stepanakert is on its own". "
Would that explain why Azerbaijani officials have criticized those statements, saying that Baku will not directly negotiate with the “separatist regime” in Karabakh?
"Most people are simply unable to wrap their minds around what the two idiots were preparing to do in 1999."
It's safe to assume that only an idiot could truly believe that anyone in Armenia seriously contemplated the idea of giving up Meghri to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Turkey, and become encircled by Turks with the only outlet being Georgia, let alone the guy who was responsible for Ter Petrossian stepping down due to his conciliatory position (which actually was a better deal than the goble plan for Armenia).
The change of the guard in Armenia shows a number of possible scenarios which should not and would not affect in any radical manner the political conduct of the recent past. It is not clear if we can see different roads taken up by pashinian than the one forged by his predecessor. Pahinian main battle cry was the corruption, (he is brooming a few names under the carpet) the wearing out of the past government domestic policies, and promises of rising living standards, more jobs, return of emigres, etc, . In a nutshell impossible pipe dreams peddled to the masses in the true spirit of democratic demagoguery. Nothing of substance, just gaseous emanations, soporific douches to what the masses were attuned to hear. It worked well and thankfully peacefully; the masses now are awaiting the fulfillment of some of those promises to become reality. As for Artsakh I don't believe there will ever be a deal with the enemy. The status quo will remain not as a result of Armenian non cooperation, but a a result of turkish-Azeriy intransigence and aggression, historical aggression, toward Armenia. Azeries are not interested in free trade with Armenia, opening of borders, these variables are not an inducement or entitlements to entice the Azeri side to at even attempt at reaching a conciliatory understanding. Azeries ( we must remember to equate the Azeries with the Turks; they one nation, although physically separated by Armenia.) are not going to resign the USSR soviet status for Karabagh. They have an army, they far outnumber the Armenians and demographically they are not shrinking. Time is decidedly on their side . This must be understood,and internalized in the nation's psyche and build self consciousness to confront this merciless reality. If Armenia is forced, or coerced, or foolishly agree to a settlement on Karabagh( whether with Pashinian or other) a la Vazken-Demirdjian or Levon Petrossian's suicidal plan, Armenia will gain nothing. Armenia will lose Karabagh (God forbid), they will not have their border opened and they will have to bear the brunt of the Azeri armies close to Sevan and Yerevan. Russia is looking after their own geopolitical interests. They have their fortress in the region with the army base in Gumry. Russia will not lift a finger in this dispute with the Turks ( short of an armed invasion which threatens their base in Armenia) in assisting Armenia in Karabagh. Karabagh and Armenia is an indivisibly whole. If political pundits and the governing elite in Armenia thinks there is a possibility to find common parlance with the turks at the expense of Karabagh they are being delusional, not to say akin to self betrayal. With Karabagh relinquished , It will a step closer to asphyxiate Armenia socially ,economically, demographically, and as a viable state.
ReplyDeleteAs for the turcophiles in Armenia ( posing as pseudo nationalist, like Sefilian and company) ruminating at removing Russia from Armenia and choosing instead entering into a " strong" communion of interests with the American-Israelis; hoping to reclaim western Armenia with the aid of American and Israelis; they are living in a make believe world of impossible practicalities.
Arevordi, you said above the following: "as all young boys we could not wait to grow up to become soldiers"... Imagine that; Armenian boys wanting to grow up to become soldiers and not "bizinisman"...
ReplyDeleteI find that in Armenian society, those who even show desire of becoming a soldier is ridiculed (at least in the diaspora, can't say much about Armenia).
Have a look at countries where there are large Armenian communities. There are maybe only a handful of Armenian militarymen serving in those countriess armed forces, compared to the hundreds of thousands of accountants, doctors, dentists, lawyers, financial advisors, bankers, business owners, car mechanics, jewelers, traders, and basically any profession that is mercantile-related, materialistic, and with a lack of "soul". While I like the idea of entrepreneurship (as I believe in self-sufficiency), I believe the Armenian entrepreneur/artist/scientist must have a sense of duty/honor/code to contribute with his/her knowledge to the homeland.
Most modern Armenians, however, take entrepreneurship to a whole new (and selfish) level. They only work for themselves with the intent of filling their own bellies. What matters to them is anything that is within their fences' limits, anything beyond that, they don't care (this can even be taken literally, have a look at the state of the broken stairs and dark walkways of Armenian apartments in Yerevan).
Most modern Armenians are by nature merchants or willing employees. They don't have what I like to call something along the lines of a "code of honor", or "sense of pride" of living life. What matters is the now, the cash flow, and the luxurious mansion with white BMW/Mercedes. «Որտեղ հաց, Այնտեղ կաց»:
Let me end with an example. I was once walking back home in Yerevan. Upon entering my building, there was a BMW parked in front of the entrance. A 12-13 year old kid came out, stared at the front lights, that had a blue-ish color (a special feature) and loudly exclaimed «Այ սե՛նց պետք ա լինի Բե Եմ Վեն Էէէէէէ», which roughly translates to "This is how a cool BMW should look like".
Coming back to my original saying, if a nation does not have a "code of honor", something they teach in standard armies in countries with a rich tradition of martial culture, then that nation can not have morality. Although I have not looked into it yet in depth, I believe Switzerland can be a successful example of having a society that values both their military as well as private businesses...
Everything you and Sassounci Davit said points to the fact that we are a broken civilization. We are merely remnants, fragments, leftovers, of an ancient civilization. We are as close to our ancient ancestors as Greeks are to theirs. In other words, we are nothing like our ancient ancestors. In fact, as we exist today, we are closer to gypsies than to our ancient ancestors. We as a people carry within ourselves severe damages that span thousand-plus years. Asia Minor's circumstances going back over one thousand years essentially bred us to be the way we are today. The Armenian today is a different animal than the Armenian of the ancient world. Such a thing will not be fixed/cured quickly or easily. We basically need long term rebreeding. We will need at least several generations of peace and stability, plus a government sanctioned reeducation program, to begin seeing some improvements in this regard. The question is, how do you do it with our people's current mindset and how do you do it in a place like the south Caucasus? The south Caucasus will remain volatile for well into the foreseeable future because the region is a meeting point between several powerful political interests. The Armenian love affair with the new religion of Democracy - with its liberal, egalitarian, atheist, feminist, homosexual, materialistic and individualistic tendencies - will further damage an already damaged gene pool. Which is why I am afraid we may be stuck in a cycle of self-destruction and further decline. Think whatever you want of me, but the only thing keeping Armenia viable as a nation-state today is Russia. One day, perhaps when it's too late, people will look back and recognize this.
DeleteI also agree strongly with the above commentary about the Armenian Genocide victimhood pathology being constantly pursued and imbued into the newer generations. The Dashnaks have unfortunately not beat, but BLUDGEONED the AG horse to death. Every aspect of every geopolitical issue whether it be Artsakh or whatever else is somehow tied to AG recognition by them. The difference between how the Jews sought Holohoax recognition and how we are doing it are vastly different. They have done it through positions of immense financial strength through total mass media manipulation while we do it through relying on the global moral compass and begging for a recognition bone to be thrown at us. Sometimes it’s downright embarrassing seeing some of our youth wearing shirts with catchy slogans like “Our wounds are still open”, WTF is that? It’s like being raped and surviving the trauma and wearing a shirt 10 years later that says “my vagina is still bleeding” , or getting the shit kicked out of you then wearing a shirt that says “I got beat up and my underwear still has shit stains on it when I self deficated”. We got fucked, fine, let’s get over it, dust ourselves off and strengthen ourselves nationally so it does not happen again, once strong, we can seek atonement from a position of strength. Just don’t understand the beggar mentality, the world is not on the moral high ground enough yet to benovalently do something about the AG. The victimhood being instilled by the ARF into their youth and now trying to spread it to the greater Diaspora and into Armenia is very dangerous in the long run. We need a transnational ethnic group of warriors, not moral compass preaching twats begging for recognition of their ancestors’ rape from an international community that doesn’t give two shits.
ReplyDeleteArevordi, also you talk about civilizational changes such as homosexuality, pedophilia, LGBTQXYZ rights importations, etc. We can also thank the ARF for “modernizing” their ways and now introducing these ideas through community talks about “queer” Armenians and such via their media arms such as Asbarez. It’s hard to believe I personally looked up to this group as a child, thinking I may someday join them. They definitely have fallen quite a bit from their days in the 1970s and 80s defending the streets of Beirut’s Armenian neighborhoods. Sorry about the topic tangent but I had to vent about the damage they are doing to our psyche with all their AG recognition bullshit.
I agree on all accounts. I used to "proudly" attend genocide commemoration events where people proudly held-up sings saying "I'm a survivor". Today, I see such things as an embarrassment and an insult to my Armenian identity. What's more, the pursuit of genocide recognition without resolution is being encouraged by Anglo-American-Jewish types. They want us to seek it without ever getting it. It's a way of keeping their control over our Diasporan communities and sow victim mentality into our people at the same time. I was once an ARFer. I know the party from the inside. It had a historic beginning. It was instrumental in forming the first republic. It did well during the civil war in Lebanon. However, the ARF went into fast decline during the post Soviet period. The ARF today is also a hapless victim of Westernization and Globalization. Which is only natural because the party was founded on European Socialist principles.
Delete@Arevordi
ReplyDeleteHave you visited Armenia since Nikol came to power? If so you would have noticed a positive outlook on Armenia's future among its residents, and a more congenial atmosphere than at any point in the 3rd Republics history since independence. Morale is the X factor. It is hard to measure but it sure as hell makes a difference when it is present or not.
Your opinion/conspiracy theory regarding Moscow or the west placing Nikol in power unverifiable. Why are you pushing this? It is no different than when people claim Putin is actually a crypto-jew hence why he goes easy on the jew lobby in Russia and does not support the Donbas or Assad more.
So far Nikol has done more to clean up the pervasive tax avoidance, and other corrupt practices than the past 3 administrations. It is only a matter of time before he goes after the well known chobans. Going after sashik and levon sargsyan is already a big deal.
Also, you keep saying Nikol is an atheist and leftist, etc. Can you show us proof? I spoke with priests who met with Pashinyan, who told them he is in fact a Christian. Perhaps he lied but we will only know the man by his actions.
Would a western asset go after the largest Western firm in Armenia? http://asbarez.com/173660/u-s-hopes-for-impartial-audit-of-amulsar-mining-project/
Anyway, I think you are cherry picking facts and stacking the deck. If Nikol fails you can say it was part of the conspiracy you mentioned and that under Serj it would not have been this way. If Nikol succeeds you can claim something else. It is win-win for you.
LG, I think I made my case about Nikol and his associates quite well in my commentary. You are actually repeating a lot of what I wrote. I invite you to read the whole commentary and not merely skim through it, thinking you already know how I feel. If conspiracies could be verifiable, they would not be conspiracies. I put a lot of blame on Serj for what happened. I say things will look/feel good for the short term. I suggest it was Supranational/Globalist forces that were behind Nikol, not Anglo-Americans. Nikol's low personal character (liberal, globalist, atheist, opportunist, rebel rouser, shit stirrer, etc) is well known to anyone who is not overtaken by the current euphoria/hysteria. It is not a secret that Nikol and many of his associates have been funded by Globalist and Western interests. I'm afraid there are some things you are not properly thinking through, due to your emotional state. I'm also afraid your issue is with me personally. Friendly advice: If you don't like what I have to say, don't read what I write. Or, simply make your case without getting personal or insulting. In any case, I see where you are emotionally and I will not go there with you. So, let me just say let's agree to disagree for now. I am sure we'll have this conversation again sometime in the future, and I am pretty sure you'll be seeing things differently then. But, for our homeland's sake, I also hope I am proven wrong.
Delete@LG,
DeleteI know where you coming from my friend but no need to get all emotional. Arevordi is right Nikol is Levon's man. He is going after the previous two regime to settle scores on Levon's behalf. It will be good in the country for a while but there are deeper things at play. I also agree that in the long term Nikol will prove worst for Armenia but lets enjoy the positives while it lasts.
@Arevordi
DeleteTo keep it simple I will just say that I do not find your thesis convincing. So sure lets wait it out and also agree to disagree. And no I don't have a personal issue with you. Disagreement does not equal dislike.
@Arto1
Not being emotional. Just pointing out that the commentary and overall thesis of this post is very one sided. Perhaps you can offer your take instead of just saying you agree with Arevordi.
@LG
DeleteI did offer may take and I can think on my own thank you. Just because I happen to agree with arevordi on many issues does not mean I don't have my own opinions. Its obvious your issue is with arevordi because why would you care who agrees with him or not. Anyway to me its obvious nikol is settling levon's old scores. Why nikol is going after sargsyan and kocharyan only and not LTP who is the root reason for all our problems today? Even western media sees it.
"Pashinyan’s government is aggressively pursuing crimes allegedly committed by two previous administrations"
https://eurasianet.org/s/armenias-old-regime-fights-legal-onslaught
@Arto
DeleteThe article you are referencing is from a soros media outlet; Eurasianet. They have an agenda to push regardless of what happens in Yerevan. Short of a total separation of Armenia from the EAU and Russia the soros types won't rest.
The first president may very well be a target as well. It is open season after-all.
And you don't know what my motivation(s) is so refrain from childish insinuations.
While Nikolik and his foreign minister are in Brussels playing politician, this is what editor-in-chief of Regnum, one of Russia's most respected news outlets, had to say -
ReplyDeleteModest Kolerov: ‘I will say straight away: [Azeris] are preparing for war’: https://www.aravot-en.am/2018/07/12/215619/
But Asbarez is proud of Nikolik - He is a true crusader for democracy!!! (http://asbarez.com/173744/time-magazine-names-pashinyan-crusader-for-democracy/ - referencing http://time.com/5336769/meet-4-crusaders-who-are-keeping-the-dream-of-democracy-alive/?xid=time-amp-fbshare )
DeleteAsbarez is a beacon of hope... when has the ARF led Asbarez ever lied to, or kept pertinent information away from the Armenian general population...
“I want to stress that any Azerbaijani attack on Armenia would also be an attack on democracy.”
DeleteReference:
https://eurasianet.org/s/pashinyan-in-brussels-we-expect-more-assistance
Is Nikolik one of them idiots who thinks if you are democratic the west will protect you? Can't believe the amature nature of our politics. The previous government was not much better. Even if Nikol was serious about going after government corruption I dont see how his government will be good for Armenia in economics and geopolitics. There doesn't have to be a conspiracy we can lose Karabakh just because of this guys inexperience.
That sums it up in a nutshell. The outlandish statements this bufoon makes in Brussels betrays his defective genes. Democracy will be the undoing of Armenia. Nikol is the vehicle through which democracy-Soros jewified worldview will pierce Armenia's armor. Democracy, as it is practiced in the world today is a parody of what the real concept of the word is. Unfortunately we don't have a counter concept and philosophy to this malfeasant democratic fever that has wrought havoc with the West. We need a counter culture, an opposing worlview and leadership ( statesmen, not basement bargain politicians) that will not hesitate to wipe out the miscreants that are sitting in parliament and do away with democratic party politics. It is very depressing, and sometimes the future looks very bleak indeed. Short life to Nikol and his cohorts.
DeleteArevordi when I saw this interview your comment about Nikol's Soros funded kindergarten quickly came to my mind, it's embarrassing this guy is one of our officials now.
DeleteՌոբերտ Աբաջյանը երևի չի էլ հասկացել՝ ինչ է կատարվում․ Կարպիս Փաշոյան (տեսանյութ): https://lurer.com/?p=293397&l=am
More anti nationalistic rhetoric by the same Nikolakan "official"
Գինոսյանը Նժդեհի մասին, կամ Կարպիս Փաշոյանի ծիծաղելի ելույթը: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSnfuOikLw4&feature=youtu.be
This Arab looking "official" may also be gay
«Գեյերն էլ երջանիկ լինելու իրավունք ունեն․․․ Զզվում եմ հայու գենից». Կարպիս Փաշոյան : https://www.arenanews.am/news/view/12324
This is a disgusting/treasonous/dangerous attempt to curb militarizm and nationalism in Armenia by one of Nikol's adolescent appointees, who as you also suggest may very well be gay. This is getting uglier by the day. I am even hearing talk about having Zaruhi Boztanjyan as Yerevan's mayor. Raffi Hovanissyan is also making noise again. We are on the wrong track. I urge everybody to wake up. There is a war brewing. Armenia has been taken hostage by Globalists. The Holy See at Etchmiadzin and Artsakh are also under internal attack by forces unleashed by Nikol's movement. And we still have morons (virtually our entire nation, as a matter of fact) that are hopeful that Nikol is making things better.
DeleteThe dummy in question has resigned. I asked around on facebook and that is what I was told.
DeleteLG, "dummy" is not the right word to use when the subject of discussion is the "spokesman of the deputy Prime Minister". The disgusting traitor resigned essentially because he was young and didn't know when to keep his mouth shut. Others in Nikol's government, including Nikol himself are essentially the same shit. They, however, are not stupid enough to run their mouths like this in public. In any case, filth like this Karpis is now populating the current regime. Armenia is the subject of an agenda that will prove very toxic for its long term health and well being.
DeleteI agree 100% with what Arevordi is saying about that opportunistic globalist intestinal parasite Nikol. Shamefully kissing European ass while the same europe makes secret deals with countries like azerbaijan, turkey, and destroys peaceful countries like Libya and Syria.
ReplyDeleteNikol is the ugly offspring of that unholy three-some Levon Ter-Petrostein, Kocharian and Sarkisian, but his true father is Levon. Nikol will do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to rein in the tens of Billions that have been looted from the country. He'll make sure some low level criminals are given a slap on the wrist as a public show to keep simple minded people happy. No offence to our brother LG but the euphoria that the blind public is experiencing is based entirely on the legitimate hatred they've felt towards the previous govts. There's no substance behind it besides hate and with Nikol and friends, it will lead to eventual ruin.
I fear a major war is coming and we stand to lose a lot, including Artsakh and possibly this time 100's thousands lives. But maybe democracy, nato and europe will save us??? Maybe Rabbi Levon can step in again as adviser and offer his words of wisdom.
Sargis Karapetyan
Նիկոլն ով ա՞. Նիկոլը մարտի 1-ին ժողովրդին խբել տվեց. Սարգիս Կարապետյան
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgnbQ6-Y1q8
For a commentary about Levon from someone who was on the front lines of war
Թալին ջոկատի հրամանատար Սարգիս Կարապետյան
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XU2_LDBgLI
In regards to the coming war with azerbaijan, We don't need to listen to a foreign journalist to understand the reality. The truth is hidden in plain site.
Samvel Babayan Interview
Սա Ղարաբաղի հարց չէ, Հայոց պետականության հարց է
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgnbQ6-Y1q8
Vova Vardanov
Ադրբեջանը պատրաստվում է հարձակվել Գեղարքունիքի ուղղությամբ և Նախիջևանից․ պիտի նախահարձակ լինենք
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q8FVZi4IRw
Ադրբեջանը պատրաստվում է լայնամասշտաբ գործողությունների, և ոչ միայն Արցախը խլելու համար
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__D5sI-eWzI
Arevordi, I agree with your descriptions about he Armenian street mentality. Where you and I differ is that I see many of those traits as being more universal rather than Armenian. This is the assumption behind social engineering and the reason it works on all populations. Those countries that dont exhibit our traits have had centuries of proper engineering through top-down cultural manipulation. That's something we've lacked. In EVERY country you'll find 95% of the population as basically sheep. Its the access to power that the intelligent 1% have that matters. If the right people can gain access and solidify their power base you'll have a disciplined, law-respecting and educated population within 3 generations. If the wrong people gain power (as ours have) you'll have what we have. Exactly who gains power depends more on the environment, the military/political situation and manipulation from external sources (Soros, USAID..etc).
Arto, one has to be deaf, dumb and blind not to see that Nkol is actually Levon's second coming. Nikol is a globalist, a neo-Bolshevik, an atheist and a liberal. By nature and character he is West leaning. He may even be part Jewish, but that is not important and has yet to be confirmed. Nikol is forced to recognize Russia's hegemony. He has no choice in the matter. Armenia will literally die without Russia. Anyone that tells you otherwise is an idiot or an agent of Armenia's enemies. Armenians are also generally speaking politically illiterate and emotionally unstable. This is why I have supported Moscow's strong arm tactics when it comes to dealing with Armenia. Moscow has forced Armenia into an alliance. If Moscow treated Armenia as an "equal" or gave Armenia "independence" - two things our so-called nationalists and Western/Globalist financed activists have been demanding - Armenia would have drifted away into oblivion many-many years ago. So, thank God Russians have Armenia by the throat and by the balls.
DeleteIn a nutshell: An "independent" Armenia in the south Caucasus will be like a pin-ball in a geopolitical pin-ball machine. In which case, Armenia will remain economically impoverished, politically unstable and always endangered.
And if it's going to be like this, I'd be happier if Armenia was incorporated into the Russian Federation. After all, the only thing keeping Turks/Azeris out of Armenia today is the 102nd. Does anyone seriously think without Russian boots on the ground in Armenia and without Russian support for our military and economy we as a people would be able to keep a country longer than a week? So, in a sense, we are already part of the Russian Federation, however without the stability (and potential prosperity) that comes with officially being in the Russian Federation. So, why not take that next step?
Is having two state flags and two official languages, and being an integral part of the largest and wealthiest entity in the world, really that bad if it brings us the safety, the stability and the prosperity that we as a people desperately need today? Personally, I am at a point in my life where I don't think that we as a people deserve much better than what Abkhazians, Tatars, Cossacks, Ossetians or Chechens have today.
To live safely in a place like the south Caucasus, we will eventually need full integration into one of the region's three main civilizations: Turkic, Iranic or Russian. Call me a self-hating Armenian, but I pick Russian. I pick Russian without even the slightest hesitation. All in all, I am sick and tired of what I have been seeing in Armenia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With Nikol's rise, I predict further political troubles and cultural decline.
Nikol newly appointed government is made up of idealistic and inexperienced individuals that have been, at least until very recently, financed by Western and Globalist interests. Other than some show arrests of low-level thugs and criminals (that is what Manvel Grigoryan and Serj Sargsyan's nephew were) and the public perception that all's well in Armenia, nothing good will come out of this government. In fact, and I hope I am proven wrong about this, this government may prove much worst than the previous one. I think a major war is coming. It has the potential to be bigger than the one we had in the early 1990s. I think Supranational interests (Anglo-American-Jews, Europeans, Russia, etc) have more-or-less already decided the fate of Artsakh. I think Serj washed his hands of the coming crisis by turning power over to Nikol's team.
I didn't know Sargis Karapetyan until now. In any case, I am glad there are people in the country that can see though the fog of euphoria.
Regarding Armenian traits: We have discussed this before. At face value, yes, Armenian faults are human faults. We are human after all. However, there is no denying that there are significant differences between us and other peoples.
DeleteI have been around a while. I have had close contacts with many nationalities. Also, I am by nature an observer. In my opinion, we are more family oriented, more adapting/resilient, more talented, more loyal, more intelligent and more compassionate than others. However, we are also very emotional, very restless, very gossip prone, very individualistic, very arrogant, very proud, very jealous, very clannish, very competitive, very ambitious and very materialistic. More so than many other peoples.
Whereas other countries of the world are made up of mostly sheep/cattle, Armenia is made up of mostly predators, or those who wish they were predators. Generally speaking, we have very few "grazers" in Armenian society. This is why they say all Armenians are generals. This is why I say Armenia is like a small pond full of sharks.
The Armenian "Street" is more concerned about how well the country's elite lives than other Streets around the world. The Armenian Street wants to live like its elite, or force its elite to live like it. The driving factor is jealousy, materialism and pride. The Street in other countries generally speaking accept their fate, mind their business and work hard to survive. For other societies, it's a given than their politicians are corrupt and that their elite controls everything. Not so among Armenians. We expect our politicians and elite to be benevolent angels. We expect to be catered to. Poverty, injustice and government corruption are perhaps worst in most other countries in the world, but it's we Armenians that obsess over it. In my opinion, it's all cultural and genetic.
This is why foreign interests have always found our people receptive of their political machinations. If you know what buttons to push, we are an easily manipulated people. Our enemies know our buttons better than us.
As I said, some faults like arrogance, individualism, jealousy, ambition, materialism and emotions are more pronounced in our people than in others. In foreign lands, this helps us to succeed. In Armenia, this translates into political illiteracy and socioeconomic instability. And this all is a by-product of folk culture, genetic makeup and breeding (geographic/geopolitical circumstances).
You are right. No effort has been made to correct any of our faults through reverse social engineering. Why? Let's put aside for a moment Soros and USAID and understand that we as a people are too arrogant to recognize that we have faults to begin with. We delight in complimenting ourselves: Oldest nation; first Christian nation; first to suffer a genocide; famous Armenians; etc.
Our "Armenian pride" has more to do with pride in ourselves than in Armenia per se. In other words, Armenian pride has little to do with real nationalism. Pride is selfish. Nationalism is selfless. Arrogance and pride does not allow room for selflessness. This is why there are very few real nationalists among us, but a whole lot of "proud" Armenians.
When a people like the Germans, French, English, Russians, Chinese, Japanese, Persians and Turks exhibit arrogance, I understand where they are coming from. When Armenians act arrogant, it's simply idiotic. For example: How many morons do you know that think Armenians are superior to Russians because Russian men are alcoholics and Russian women are slutty? I'm sure a lot. Well, next time reminds those backward chobans to take a good look at the map of the world and see the country alcoholic/slutty Russians created for themselves during the past one thousand years and then ask them to take a good look at the country that we noble/proud/brave/intelligent/talented/hardworking/etc. Armenians have been barely hanging on to... with Russian support nonetheless.
This was by far your Best, thought and more clear description about us the Armenians in all your articles in this Blog. You are so but so right about everything. Nobody is going to accept it. Not even me jajaja it's so hard to accept that's what we are
DeleteIn all of your blogposts, Arevordi, you seem to have a taken to criticizing tenets of individualism. Care to explain why, so I can safely say why I hate collectivism so much.
DeleteJerriko,
DeleteI know where you are coming from. No need to get into it because I agree with you. Please assess whatever I say/write strictly in the context of the topic discussed. Here, I'm speaking of Armenian individualism, and I am speaking of it primarily from a political angle. Individualism has throughout Armenian history put the individual above the greater good. Individualism has put the Armenian individual above the Armenian state. Armenian individualism, which is derived from the Armenian ego, pride and arrogance, is the root cause of Armenian treason, as well as Armenian political illiteracy. It all functions mostly in the subconscious. So, what I'm saying is that Armenian individualism (essentially derived from arrogance, pride and ego) has been a serious problem in Armenian society not only because it makes living among Armenian very difficult but also because it manifests itself in the nation's political life.
Also, there are two fundamental aspects to this discussion. One is on a personal level (i.e. how you dress, how you keep your hair, what music you listen to, what religion to ascribe to, etc) and one is on a national level (allegiance to your state, your culture, your race, your church, etc). In my opinion, you can be as individualistic as you want on a personal level if you concurrently recognize cultural, national and political conformity on a state level. Example: Just because you personally happen to believe in Buddhism, you should not support the destruction of your Chrisatian church. In other words, just because you don't like your government, you should not support its overthrow by foreign forces. In other words, just because you are gay, you should not force your lifestyle/psychosexual disorder on others. Individualism is ok on a personal level, but not when individualists project their lifestyles/beliefs/politics/sexual fetishes on society as a whole. Do I make sense?
I admit it is very difficult to control such things because humans are difficult animals to control when they find "do as you like" style of freedom, which is why many societies around the world have throughout history simply stuck with conservatism to control human society.
At a fundamental level, individualism rejects all forms of conformity, be it political, be it national, be it ethical, be it domestic, be it legal, be it religious. Individualism or non-conformity eventually leads to chaos, political instability and cultural decline. Nations/societies therefore need a certain level of conformity (i.e. political, cultural, religious) to function efficiently and safely. When I say conformity, I am not speaking of it from a Bolshevik, Saudi Arabian or North Korean context. Those forms of conformity are the opposite extremes of Western style individualism/liberalism. Both forms can lead to decline.
In a nutshell: I believe in constrained or regulated forms of individualism or liberalism. In other words, I believe in soft conservatism or loose conformity. Example: I believe an artist has the right to express him/herself within legal and moral boundaries. Example: Putting a crucifix in a jar of urine and presenting it as art does NOT make it art, nor is it individualism nor is it freedom of expression; it's a blatant attack on one billion-plus Christians. Western style individualism (promoted by Anglo-American-Jews) has led to the decline of western/European civilization. Similar things can of course be said of highly conservative societies. To function properly, society needs a certain level of conformity or regulated form of individualism.
Part 1
DeleteI really hate what Arevordi is saying, but, the truth hurts... Armenia has engaged on a road where its foreign policy is right out of Ara Manoogian's playbook. And having a foreign policy emulating Ara Manoogian's thoughts and actions is a policy doomed to fail.
1) Manoogian's Beef with Karekin:
Manoogian has been writing about getting rid of Karekin for some time now. (http://www.thetruthmustbetold.com/ttmbtv-14/) Manoogian's penchant for protest towards Karekin II has now spilled over to the general population. (https://news.am/eng/news/459448.html). The destruction of moral authority in Armenia will have negative repercussions, where the surrounding nations are steadfast on their ideological beliefs.
Yes, Karekin II is not ideal, but, the office is still vital. Respecting the seat MORE as important as the person. And the lack of respect for such structures is the first step of destabilization (a la the Catholic faith in a broken Europe)
2) Manoogian's Beef with Armenia Fund:
Manoogian's fight with Armenia Fund is well-chronicled. (http://thegampr.com/2013/11/27/sanctions-proposed-against-armenia/). Manoogian's wishes are coming to fruition where one by one, members of the Armenia Fund are starting to lose a grip on power (https://massispost.com/2018/07/hayastan-all-armenian-fund-executive-director-quits-amid-corruption-probe/).
Such a swift cleaning of the house on important social structures is a further act of destabilization, inherent in Manoogian's chaotic presence.
part 2
Delete3) Manoogian's Beef with the Old Gaurd
Manoogian's calls for attention with the old gaurd are well chronicled. The man went on a hunger strike for 30 days protesting Serge Sarkissian (http://www.thetruthmustbetold.com/obama/), and allegedly, was the only person known in history to have gained weight during aforementioned hunger strike.
Now, members of the old gaurd are being replaced systematically. (https://mirrorspectator.com/2018/06/19/retired-general-arrested-for-stockpiling-military-weapons-goods-son-mayor-of-echmiadzin-forced-to-resign/). This trend is troubling because the last two countries whose old gaurd was being removed were Iraq and Syria, where former members of the establishment became ISIS, and whose countries are partioally occupied by Turkey.
I am not saying members of Armenia's ruling elite will become Muslim fanatics. But, there will be repercussions, as no one will willingly be a martyr a scapegoat for Pashinyan.
These actions only further destabilize the core of Armenia. Is it any wonder that the Azerbaijiani as has already commended Ara Manoogian for his own chaotic actoins (https://www.azernews.az/aggression/74028.html), and taken credit for Pashinyan's rise to power. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/23/serzh-sargsyan-resigns-as-armenias-prime-minister-after-protests)
4) Future Prognostications - Constitutional Reform and Economics
The more troubling items are Manoogian's ideas for constituional reform and economics, which go hand in hand. This rests more with who Manoogian hangs his heart with, Policy Forum Armenia (https://www.pf-armenia.org/profile/ara-manoogian).
The PFA's policies have been completely pro-European, whether it be in aspiring to be like a European nation state (https://www.pf-armenia.org/document/armenia%E2%80%99s-december-2015-constitutional-referendum) while complete being oblivious that its neighbors who are regional powers adhere to a form a Islamic Thoecratic norms. PFA's vision also extend to economic reforms. (https://www.pf-armenia.org/document/armenia-and-west-new-vision-caucasus).
Pashinyan is a man, whose body language, quite simply resonates that he needs a hug from Europe and the west at large. (https://eurasianet.org/s/pashinyan-in-brussels-we-expect-more-assistance). Hell, Pashinyan even bowed to Justin Trudeau, the butt of jokes of the western leadership (http://torontohye.ca/canadian-pm-reaffirms-his-participation-in-the-17th-francophone-summit-in-yerevan/). His bowing to western dignitaries is reminiscent of Pres. Obama bowing to the Saudies. (http://toprightnews.com/obama-will-go-to-saudi-arabia-to-bow-to-new-king-but-was-too-busy-to-stand-against-terror-in-paris/).
Looking for attention from the west ties in with Manoogian's playbook of looking to get the attention of all western leaders (i.e., Manoogian's hunger strike above, where Manoogian sought response from Pres. Obama).
Yet, as most developing countries are starting to wake up that salvation does not come from the west (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/money/brazilian-president-lula-de-silva-blames-blue-eyed-white-people-gordon-brown-uncomfortable-article-1.371877), but from within. Following on a path to try to integrate with the west is extremely dangerous, especially in the South Caucasus. The last country to do so paid a heavy price in its own disputed territories (Georgia, with reference to S. Ossetia and Abkhazia). Could Karabagh be far behind?
5) Conclusions
To reiterate, Armenia has engaged on a road where its foreign policy is right out of Ara Manoogian's playbook. Has Pashinyan become Armenia's Trojan Horse, carrying with Ara Manoogian's thoughts? What debauchery could Armenians expect next? (https://thetruthmustbetoldblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/ara-manoogian.jpg)
Destabilization is never a good thing...
Bravo Boghos.
DeletePolitical stability and predictability are without doubt the most imporant factors in a nation's life. In my opinion, they are much more important than "corruption" or poverty or war or blockade. All Western nations were severely corrupt some 100 years ago. They got to where they are today through political stability and predictability. The best tool for sowing political instability today is democracy. This is why democracy is pushed onto nations by the plutocratic West. Once you lose political stability and predictability, it's downhill from there. I for one would much rather live in a stable and authoritarian "corrupt" country than an unstable "democratic" country. Due to our age-old urge to live like the Romans, we as a people have once again betrayed Armenia's future. Armenia seems to have fallen victim to a Supranational/Globalist agenda that is not only subverting the government but also attacking the national church. And characters like Ara Manoogian (he is not unique as there are many like him) are clearly playing a fundamental role.
@Arevordi:
DeleteNow that you've mentioned it, within nationalist societies, there can be a balancing of individual rights and national obligations in terms of having a fair trade off. From what I've read on Armenian individualism, it's practically unbalanced without any sense of acknowledgement for national obligations. The only reason why the Anglo-Americans were successful, pro-individualistic societies is because they thrived on competition, and also resorted to backhanded tactics in order to deny their rivals a chance to upstage them.
Regarding the Trump-Putin summit, there will always be a chance that Neo-Cons will spoil the damn thing, simply because they don't want to deal with Russia as an equal. They only want every nation to be subordinated to them. Those neo-cons want to stay on top, and don't want real competition because they won't thrive at all.
Going back to the whole individualism vs collectivism thing, it's also due to certain developments in the brain. I'm not exactly sure which part of the brain is it when one part of the brain is larger, it influences individualistic behavior, and when one part of the brain also influences collectivistic behavior.
Arevordi, what are your thoughts on the Armenian fedayi of the early 20th century, should they receive as much praise as they do? Were they the farsighted people we needed?
DeleteTake a good look at today's Kurdish independence movement and you'll see a mirror reflection of ours one hundred-plus years ago. Take a close look at Kurdish fighters today and you'll see a mirror reflection of our "fedayis" back then. All in all, the way we as a people handled our independence movement at the time led to the genocide. And the way we approached politics during the first republic, led to the loss of Artsakh, Nakhijevan and Kars. Our independence movement back then was good in that it finally woke up the Armenian spirit in ottoman/western Armenia, and helped us stumble into a short-lived independence. But it was not successful in much else. Also, please refrain from using Arabic words. The proper term in Armenian for "fedayi" is Azatamartik; even Hayduk would be better.
DeleteArevordi, I often notice when mentioning Armenians in their civilizational struggle for creating a strong nation, you say Armenians have not had one since Uraratu/Ararat. What was different about Uraratu/Ararat and its predecessors that you consider it a success? Also, what about Armenia under the Artashesian dynasty, why isn't that a successful/strong nation? I could understand the others like Bagratunis, Kilikia, etc.
DeleteWe know very little about politics in the Armenian highlands before the kingdom of Ararat. So, what makes the kingdom of Ararat unique for me is that it truly was an independent power. The kingdom was a conglomeration/merger/federation of regional tribes/peoples. And, it was a major power, politically, militarily and culturally. That said, I agree with your insinuation that Artashesian dynasty was also a successful/strong nation. However, that was because of the Persian Empire. Let's recall that the Artashesian dynasty was essentially an offshoot of Parthian aristocracy, and Armenia was fully part of the Persian orbit. To help you better understand where I am coming from: Think of Artashesian Armenia as Soviet Armenia. Yes, it was a successful. Yes, it was powerful. Yes, it was relatively prosperous and peaceful. But, it was not independent, it was not homegrown. This is not a criticism, it's just an observation. In fact, I personally feel the closest affinity to Artashesian Armenia. In any case, we again ruined what we had back then with our western fetish of the time: Our nobility's burning desire to live like the Romans.
Deletehttps://www.rt.com/usa/433370-putin-meeting-trump-good/
ReplyDeleteHopefully this is leads to good things.
I don't know what this summit will lead to (remember that President Trump has no support in Washington whatsoever in this regard) but today was nevertheless one of the most historic days in memory. Never in perhaps 150-plus years has an American president been this humble in such a venue. Never in memory has Russia looked this good on the global stage. I proclaim that the monster that paraded around the world under the guise of "American exceptionalism" finally died today. Regardless of the motivation or political reasoning/maneuvering behind it, we can sincerely thank President Trump for finally killing the beast in question. As expected, President Putin performed brilliantly. In any case, I think this meeting foreshadows a major world event. I believe serious geopolitical matters (perhaps even a war) were discussed during their two hour closed-door meeting. Also, I particularly love how hysterical the entire political system and the news media establishment in the United States has been as a result of this meeting between the world's two most powerful presidents.
DeletePutin-Trump meeting in Helsinki: News conference following summit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4154&v=gqigwlTccO0
Indeed your guess is as good as mine. We can only wait to see what tangible outcomes arise after the meeting. For me the money quote was this: “Our relationship has never been worse than it is now – however, that changed about four hours ago, I truly believe that.” Soon enough the entire conspiracy by the deep state to tie Trump with Russia and claim Russian meddling in 2016 presidential elections will come crashing down. At the press conference Trump hinted that the democracts and fbi need to show evidence, they need to find the servers, and of course hillary's emails that were erased. I also liked the idea that was touted of creating business forums for captains of industry from both states to meet and discuss economic opportunities.
DeleteFox news interview with Putin after summit with Trump.
Chris Wallace interviews Russian President Vladimir Putin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHY8yG4mVzs
‘Two boxers starting a match’: Trump and Putin's gestures dissected by body language expert : https://www.rt.com/news/433443-trump-putin-body-language-analysis/
It amazed me how they mangled this poor Trump at anime. You would think he was public enemy #1 instead if the President, wow, Jewish media in overdrive.
DeleteThe meeting between Putin trump is a prelude to further developments in the USA RF relationship. It is revealing that during putin' s speech the Russian mentioned " ensure or guarantee the security of Israel". Israel has now seemingly two guarantors to her insecure security paranoia, the us and the rf. As for developments in Armenia under the New Democratic revolutionary political mugger of Pashynian and his cohorts (this is the return of the judeophile francomason Ter petrosian) a further deterioration in the fabric of Armenian nationhood and sovereignty lies ahead. There is no logical explanation to unravel the mystery of Pashynian forces stealing the government scepter . There is one sector responsible and that was the previous establishment. They may have been disliked, but they might have grown tired of running the government and they may have wanted out. This Velvet Revolution and the mass appeal which carried pashinian to the highest seat in parliament could have been nipped in the bud had there been the political will of the establishment to meet the challenge head on. Why was not Pashynian and his band of seditious mercenaries not rounded up and incarcerated or exiled from the first minute at the start of his pilgrimage in the towns and villages of the republic ? Only Sarkissian and other big names in the previous establishment perhaps can answer that. These bandits, heir of Ter petrosian , are birds of ill omen for Armenia. Armenian government has been hijacked by unarmenian, rootless political brigands at the beck and call of alien interests.
DeleteI was so happy to see this by Tucker, he is so right about everything
Delete"Tucker: Trump's critics hate the idea of rethinking or correcting any of the countless blunders they’ve made over the years. On the big questions, Trump is indisputably right: The Cold War is over. The world has changed. It is time to rethink America’s alliances, and act in our own interests for once. #Tucker"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFRmF0SfHUA&feature=youtu.be
Levon Der Petrosian playing advisor role to the new prime minister of Armenia. This should make any self-respecting nationalist very nervous.
ReplyDeleteFirst President and Prime Minister of Armenia meet
https://www.aravot-en.am/2018/07/17/215860/
And as if we needed more proof of how treasonous Der Petrosian was to the Armenia, the following man talks about how Armenia was very close to opening a second front for azerbaijan during the 90's war which would have demoralized and destroyed that country. He had organized a Lezgi fighting force of 3000 men, trained and ready with experienced Artsakhtsi commanders ready for attacking from the Dagestan side, but how Levon prevented the 2nd front from starting on orders from Gilmore who was the US ambassador to Armenia at the time.
Lեզգիստան՝ 2-րդ ճակատ Բաքվի մատույցներում. ո՞վ ձախողեց Ադրբեջանի կազմալուծման ծրագրերը
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9lgBKKOII5k
Not very comforting to know that Levon2 is now in charge and getting advice from Levon1 while our idiots are celebrating in both the homeland and diaspora.
Is there any doubt anymore that Nikol is Levon's second coming? That said, I am actually surprised Levon Petrosyan came out of his lair this early. I though Nikol would want to keep him out of the political scene for a while, as he continues to deceive the sheeple. Then again, Nikol is not the one calling the shots as some of us know. In any case, I no long have any degree of sympathy for our people. It's frightening how troublesome and problematic we are as a people. As I have said, if Armenians deserved their wealthy chobans previously, they fully deserve their Nikol now. Conspiracy or no conspiracy, political machinations or no political machinations, Serj or no Serj, the so-called "Street" could have been or should have been wise enough and politically aware enough not to follow a well-known street scoundrel like Nikol, someone who has made a living his entire life peddling poison in Armenia for Globalists interests. We as a people simply followed our primitive emotions and utter political ignorance. Now, we as a people fully deserve what is coming to us, just as we have deserved all the black pages in our history.
Deletedoom and gloom. Where were you when LTP was visiting Serzh and Bako Sahakyan mere weeks or months prior to the change of regime? In that regard, where is Robert Kocharian? Why did hardliners opposed to concessions support LTP in the 2008 elections? Why were Samvel Babayan's and Jirayr Sefilyan's imprisoned, while Manvel's were permitted to pillage and plunder under the guise of "National Heroes"?
DeleteՀՀՇ - ի պլանները և Լևոնի երազանքը .......: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jgHeujSlwso
DeleteInteresting video on LTP. However, I had not heard about many of the things mentioned in the video, so I wanted to ask you Arevordi how much of this is true? Also, in 1996 there were mass protests following the Armenian presidential election. People or the street claimed that LTP had rigged the elections against Vazgen Manukyan. I don't have much knowledge on this subject so I wanted to ask you what was really happening behind scenes? And finally, I see many Armenians blaming Russia for stopping the Armenian military in 1994 and saying if not for Russia, Armenia would have conquered all if not most of Azerbaijan. What are your thoughts on this?
Hayraser, I don't know your real intent here but what you just posted is anti-Jewish hysteria, as well as anti-Artsakh psyops designed to sow distrust between the populations of Armenia and Artsakh. The notion that Artsakh is ruled by crypto-Jews is on par with David Icke's shape-shifting reptiles theory. Although this nonsense may on the surface seem anti-Levon, it is in effect pro-Levon in that it attempts to drive a wedge between Armenia and Artsakh. Regarding the 1996 elections: I had no way of knowing what was happening behind the scenes, I do nevertheless remember the time quite well. The Armenian "Street" at the time had finally woken up to realize who Levon Petrosyan was. Consequently, Vazgen Manukyan (who I have a lot of respect for) had clearly won the election. Levon refused to admit defeat. He therefore deployed the army into the streets of Yerevan to ensure his criminal reign. I reiterate: Everything we hate about post-Soviet Armenia today - from Western meddling to severe corruption to inefficient government to the rise of oligarchs to vote rigging to failures in Artsakh - have their roots in the Levon years. Yet, Nikol is consulting with Levon today. Regarding your last point: No one in the international community (i.e. Anglo-American-Jews, Europe and Russia) wanted to see Armenians advance deeper into Azerbaijan. That said, those that were most worried were Anglo-American-Jews, who had set their eyes on Azeri oil and gas.
DeleteRussia Can Prevent Karabakh War, Says Pashinian: https://www.azatutyun.am/a/29378782.html
ReplyDeletePathetic moron. Populate your government with Western-funded Globalists. Run to Europe to kiss Western asses and beg for money. Then run back to Armenia to kiss Russian asses so that they you protect you from Turks. What happened to "duxov"? What happened to Armenian pride? What happened to Armenian power and courage? I thought once united, as Nikol has supposedly united us, we could defeat all our enemies. I thought once we united, we didn't need Russians to protect us. I thought we wanted "independence" from Russia. I thought we didn't want Russian meddling in Armenia. What a pathetic bunch of people we are.
DeletePashinian Blasts Unannounced Russian Drill: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.azatutyun.am/amp/29376127.html
DeleteThis can be handled better, seems like a bit of carelessness on behalf of Russians, but we need to learn some political tact when these matters are concerned.
Pashinyan Signals Readiness to Meet With Aliyev: http://asbarez.com/173874/pashinyan-signals-readiness-to-meet-with-aliyev/
Ready the part under “Brussels visit” Arevordi... I’m not defending Pashinyan, but this last Brussels visit does not seem to have gone the way he had hoped it seems. He went there expecting a very warm welcome but seems like it was luke warm at best. This is a classic case of talking the talk then fizzling out on the walk by the EU. This combined with his statement on Russia having levers for Arstakh (formerly known as Nagorno-Karabakh) all seem like reality check revelations for him personally.
The same story repeats itself. Policies, hypocrite politics end up in the dustbin in spite of our pigheadedness . The football diplomacy of Sarkissian and Gul, its famous derivative was to be open borders. It failed not because of Sarkissian, but the turkish parliament turned it down. Pashinian is trying to ingratiate himself to the West as a lackey. He is failing because the West does not fall for his entreaties. Small countries like Armenia can never be truly sovereign; small countries can claim sovereignty and independence insofar as they are part of a bloc, or group, imperial bloc or imperial group. The west is personified by the USA (jews-zionists under the skirt)imperial foothold comprising its vassal states ( supposedly independent nations) latin America-Europe-Africa are vassal pawns in the Empire. Opposed to it is the other empire, the RF and its satellite nations, of which Armenia is one of them. The question is in which orbit does Armenia want to be.Political Logic and geopolitical interests dictate that Armenia needs and must be in the Russian orbit, many reasons are evident of this, least of all the geographical proximity. Does the Pashinian herd want to supplant the Russians and usher Armenia in the USA orbit, become a vassal state in the USA imperium? Unfortunately his language and vocabulary will not openly reveal this. His speeches are always cushioned and crafted by innumerable lisps of Democracy, human rights , anti racism ,and the like. Today Democracy is a camouflage word for being ruled by jews-zionists. When one hears the word Democracy and human rights it means jewish supremacy and over lordship. Will someone appear on the horizon in the not too distant future and delete these seditious anti national, anti tribal words.
ReplyDeleteFunny thing is I hear a lot of people on YouTube criticizing the last 3 presidents, the current pro west geopolitical movement, the stupidity of the military doctrine...etc. they tend to be smart people or hardcore military men with a good sense of reality but none of it is crystallizing into a real political movement. A real political movement will put an end to this western democracy bullshit and bring back experienced men like Norat Der Grigoryan, Samvel Babayan, Gurgen yeghiazaryan, etc.
DeleteIn fact I'm astonished at how no one has managed to put an end to our biggest traitor -levon petrosian after all these years.
We still have some good people among us but they're playing youtube wars instead of mobilizing on the political scene. The next election will cement the death of Armenia by locking in Nokol's team for years to come unless a real respectable political force is brought into the mix.
Arto, you will not see the crystallization or galvanization of real patriots in Armenia because the organizers of such things (i.e. the financiers) during the post-Soviet years have exclusively been Western/Globalist interests. In other words, there is no one today that is capable or willing to finance a genuine/homegrown patriotic movement that espouses Armenocentrism, conservatism, traditionalism and Christian values, and of course pro-Russian politics.
DeleteThe individuals your referring to (which obviously includes me) are basically concerned Armenians who have taken it upon themselves to do or say something. People like us don't have any other choice. As long such people don't have the backing of major political interests, what they say and do will have no great impact.
Regarding Nikol and Levon: As you know, Nikol and Levon met recently. According to Armenian news sources, Nikol met with Levon for "talks" on Artsakh. In other words, Nikol did not meet Levon to question him on his treasonous/criminal actions, but to ask advice about Artsakh.
All the talk in Armenia today is about the crimes that have take place during the past "20" years. In other words, it all about going after Robert Kocharyan's and Serj Sargsyan's cronies. All the hoopla we have been hearing about is therefore about Levon Petrosyan exacting revenge on his political enemies through his mini me, Nikol. Sad part is, the AAS has become a pathetic tool for sitting governments. It never ceases to maze me just how stupid and naive we are as a people.
@Arto2
DeleteNot sure I would really want any of the men you mentioned to have a top level role in Armenia's foreign or domestic affairs. Norat is ok. But Babayan is not. He may have been a war hero but he too used it to make money and he tried to run Artsakh as his personal fief. Also, he was imprisoned by Serj last autumn and it was Nikol who let him out. I will let that sink in.
As for your observation regarding why patriotic Armenians don't unite into an organization or something akin to a political party, I too have been asking the same question for several years now. If I didn't know that there were some unofficial groups out there with some pull and finances I too would be discouraged. But there are people and groups that are trying to make a positive impact. They can always use more help though from patriotic and traditionalist voices like yourself.
How did Nikol assume the mantle of power for him and those of his ilk ? He mugged the government in situ. Besides he had no opposition at all. He mugged Sarkissian, by dismissing him with contempt, and Sarkissian's followers dissolved like butter under the sun. Elections are a parody of justice and the so called pornographic(democratic) process. Nikol can now prance like a peacock with widespread plumage and broadcast that he is waging war against corruption, and showing a few scalps here and there to amuse his audience. Entertainment for the blind masses into believing that this defective character, their champion, is doing something vital and constructive. Next elections will be a breeze for nikol. No one , group or party of any weight, political weight is afloat to oppose him . He might be digging his own grave by asking the odious Petrossian for advise on Artsakh. Petrosian schemes and plans for the sellout of Artsakh were and remain bankrupt. Petrossian can offer no inspiring advice on tackling the issues, other than advice on roads and avenue of deceitful treachery . Kocharian and Sarkissian were simply naive, or did not care, to isolate, bring charges of treason and corruption to condemned Petrissian and sentence him. The let the political hyena loose. Now they are the ones being harried and chased by the anti-corruption brigade. The only way one can get rid of the pestilential class led by nikol is by paying him with the same coin he used , mugging him out of government. To accomplish such a virtuous act one needs a strongman, a strong leader. None of these pornographic ( democratic) catamites who populate the democratic halls of parliament are capable of such heroics. It is clear that Russia ,seemingly ,is not concerned; otherwise they would have shown some signs of disapproval. As for the armed forces, their resources are tied down in the war; little time or appetite to play at filthy politicking. But they need to watch out and be ultra vigilant , not trust the political mercenaries running the government.
Delete@LG
DeleteSerj was bad for imprisoning Samvel on fake charges but his release doesn't make Nikol good, it just makes him anti-Serj. Samvel bore the responsibility of defending Artsakh as a 26 yo commander. He is brilliant, has good ties to military circles in Russia and he should be tapped for his potential. By the way the opposite of a fiefdom as you call it is an open democracy servicing western powers while bending over holding our ankles. We could use a good fiefdom now run by good, patriotic men and women.
And Norat is not just OK, he is a treasure for us right now. Too bad he was so disgusted at the treachery of levon he packed up and left Armenia. Unfortunately we have a mini Henry Kissinger of our own that just wont go away.
@Arto2:
DeleteWhen you have a chance, speak with Armenians from Artsakh about Samvel. Specifically his actions after 1994. He is a mixed bag and has a lot of baggage. To put it bluntly he is arrogant. I know, I met him.
How do you know he has close ties Russian military?
There are many forms of government not just two. You do realize that not being run by self interested strong-men types doesn't mean that the other alternative must be democracy.
Many people (rich and poor) were disgusted by various things our three previous presidents did.
When it comes to the Artsakh subject it pivots on the capabilities of the turkishazeri army to conquer the area. There can not be a negotiated resolution from the Azeris perspective short of them recognizing artsakh as indivisible Armenian land and jurisdiction. From Armenian perspective artsakh is not an issue for discussion or negotiations . In any case the matter is out of the politicians hands, although they can not proclaim it to be so. From the Azzeri side the conflict "zone" can be reconfigured by military means. From the Armenian side , regardless who is in government, eg traitors like petrosian, bumbling twaddlers like nikol, or pompous bowlers like the rest, they can double down , strengthen the armed forces, ensure maximum protection of the borders and keep the potential capacity to repulse and retaliate agains the enemy. It is an endurance crucible of profound historical implications. In the meanwhile the politicos will keep talking for as long they can maintain themselves in their posts.
DeleteInteresting piece of the geostrategic puzzle and those behind Trump
ReplyDelete"The former secretary of state is best known for his concept of triangular diplomacy, which Washington used during the Nixon administration in the 1970s to break the Sino-Soviet alliance and to improve US relations with Beijing."
https://sputniknews.com/world/201807261066705921-trump-kissinger-advice-on-russia/
Kocharian, khatchaturov, and who knows how many more will be charged, are being charged by the present government. Political trials are always long and drawn out with. The charges will be made to stick I am afraid. This is bad news indeed. These charges are, naturally, fabricated, bogus charges. It is a sickening spectacle.
ReplyDeleteRepublicans, Dashnaks Slam Charges Against Kocharian: https://www.azatutyun.am/a/29394028.html
DeleteThe real criminals on March 1, 2008 were Levon Petrosyan and Nikol Pashinyan. No one else. Robert Kocharyan's government was simply trying to put down a violent uprising by a foreign funded agent. In fact, I was upset that Levon's and Nikol's name were not on the causality list at the time. I want to reiterate that what we are seeing is a Levonakan measure to weaken the "Karabakh Clan" and sow Globalism in Armenia. Needless to say, this is also Levon's way of getting back at Robert on a personal level. I want to remind my readers again that Nikol is Levon's second coming. Nikol is Levon 2.0. Nikol is Levon by other means. One must be a total idiot/moron not to see this.
Then again, a majority of Armos (regardless of education and wealth) can't see past their hate, emotions and/or egos. Whatever I say here will therefore not be recognized, understood or accepted by a vast majority of Armenians for a long time. As usual, by the time Armenians wake up, it will be too late to reverse the damage. What is happening in the country today is more dangerous (for the country's long term health) than what was happening in the country before the so-called "Velvet Revolution". Nikol's newly formed government is full of Western-funded activists, Globalists, Russophobes, Liberals, anti-nationalists, homosexuals, feminists and atheists. Nikol's government is in power to sow instability in the country. With various political interests and strongmen vying for control, Armenia is becoming a banana republic. Strategic organs, like the nation's security services, have been turned into toys/tools at the hands of political interests. The Kremlin is gradually growing weary of Yerevan's new government. Moreover, all this is coming at a time when a major war is brewing on Armenia's eastern and southern borders.
Because of our two thousand years old desire to live like Romans - also because of our ungovernable emotions and utter political illiteracy - we Armenians are once again on course to destroying our state. If this is what independence and democracy is all about, I rather see the Russian flag flying next to the Armenian flag over the Armenian parliament. If scoundrels and traitors like Nikol and Levon are what our people is only capable of producing in politics, I would rather see Armenia become a province of the Russian Federation.
I could not agree more with what you wrote. Bewildering though that neither Kocharian nor the others did not see this coming once the scoundrel nikol and his gang assumed the reins of government. Kocharian says this is a political vendetta . Nikol'l gang, will spend their time persecuting members of the previous governments, covering up the shortcomings of his government ,and distracting the masses with this kind of entertainment while state affairs sink deeper into apathy.. On the economy front nikol will not be able to deliver on his promises, but with the vendetta circus on members of the earlier government, the public is likely to remain dormant and quiescent while the circus is in town. It is hoped that Moscow's irritability with the present gang's political conduct reaches a point where concrete action for their removal is carried out. The challenge is that there does not seem to be any serious opposition capable of instigating a counter revolution.. In one of the magazines, there was a large colorful photo with the traitor nikol shaking hands with mogherini, what captures one's attention is not the shaking of hands between the two but the presence behind them of two huge flags, the Armenian and that of the EU. It was a subliminal message of the true intentions of this scoundrel photog dwarfed by the EU flag.
DeleteNormally anything written in the azeri press isn't worth much but this piece says it all:
DeleteTer-Petrosyan may talk sense into Pashinyan in Karabakh issue
https://www.azernews.az/aggression/135272.html
Nikol is Levonstein's puppet, its in plain sight for those with eyes
DeleteԲոլոր նախագահներից Նիկոլ Փաշինյանը հանդիպում է միայն Լևոն Տեր-Պետրոսյանին. ինչո՞ւ
http://yerevan.today/all/politics/19028/bolor-nakhagahneric-nikol-pashinyany-handipum-e-miayn-levon-ter-petrosyanin-incho
Pashinyan: Armenia ready to open border with Turkey without preconditions
https://news.am/eng/news/463914.html
Some links with little to no comments, leaving the interpretations to the reader:
ReplyDeleteՌոբերտ Քոչարյանի հարցազրույցը «Երկիր մեդիային» (Pay close attention to what Kocharyan says, those words will be revisited many times in the future)
https://www.facebook.com/hetqonline/videos/1981898285200145/
Ready to negotiate with Ilham Aliyev: Armenia PM Nikol Pashinyan | Talk to Al Jazeera
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CU9gU_RpLU
Armenia proposes CSTO to begin process of replacing chief
http://panarmenian.net/eng/news/258444/
Источник: Москва считает непрофессиональными заявления Еревана о смене генсека ОДКБ
http://tass.ru/politika/5411319
All this reminded me of a very interesting interview Levon Petrosyan gave a little more than one year ago. Listen to it carefully if you want to better understand what is going on behind-the-scenes in Armenia today, and better understand where Nikol will be gradually taking Armenia -
ReplyDeleteՈւրվագիծ 28.03.2017 Լևոն Տեր-Պետրոսյան: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI6c0DHIJGs&feature=youtu.be&t=1685
What Levon has to say in this interview is more relevant today than it was when he first spoke them. For non-Armenian speakers, the following are several of the points he makes:
1 Russia has been taking matters pertaining to Artsakh very seriously in recent years because the Kremlin has a number of very important things to do around the world. Russian officials therefore want to settle this open wound that is located right on their border.
2 Western powers have more important things to pay attention to than Artsakh. They simply want to see the conflict settled for once and for all.
3 There are no major differences over Artsakh between Russia and Western powers.
4 Armenia cannot oppose the will of the international community. If Armenia remains stubborn in this regard, the international community will sooner-or-later impose its will on Armenia.
5 Robert Kocharyan's and Serj Sargsyan's only concern all these years was to maintain the status quo as they enriched themselves.
6 Not only Levon Petrosyan but all Armenian leaders have agreed in writing to major land concessions.
7 Vartan Oskanian was the mastermind behind various plans to solve the dispute through land concessions.
8 The unresolved conflict is the main reason why Armenia is in a bad shape economically, culturally and politically.
9 The conflict must therefore be settled regardless of how painful the land concessions may be for both sides.
We see Levon Petrosyan trying very hard to explain and justify his position regarding pulling back from liberated lands. At times in the interview, it seems as if Levon actually wants to see Artsakh as an autonomous region of Azerbaijan. To my surprise, he even seems to be suggesting that the Armenian government in the late 1990s had agreed to the Paul Goble plan (he calls it Key West).
When this interview first came out a year ago I admitted in this blog that at face value I actually agree with a lot of what Levon has to say. I also think that the Artsakh conflict has to be resolved for Armenia to move forward. I also think that some land concession in return for recognition of Artsakh's independence or its reunification with Armenia is acceptable. I also think it would be a good idea to station Russian troops between Artsakh and Azerbaijan. Unlike Levon, however, I don't think any of this can be done through unilateral concessions and putting full faith in the "international community", nor should this be done by pulling back from all 7 regions. I have always maintained that regions west of Artsakh proper cannot be negotiated under any circumstances. In any case, in the political climate we are living in, I'm afraid a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan can only be imposed by major powers after another major war. A major war may be not too far away.
So, there are some things that I actually agree with Levon. My main fear/concern is the volume of land concessions (all 7 regions) and preconditions (such as allowing the return of Azeri refugees) someone like Levon or Nikol would be willing to make when the day comes.
Throughout the early 1990s Levon Petrosyan's government looted Armenia and kept its people in the dark and cold in order to break the Armenian spirit, in order to settle the Artsakh dispute in accordance to international expectations. The agenda did not work because Kocharyan and Sargsyan had other plans. Today, as a result of the "Velvet Revolution", Levon is back.
DeleteIt's very obvious that Levon is pushing a foreign/international agenda in Armenia. I must add however that the man is extremely intelligent and has a keen understanding of history and realpolitik. Moreover, it seems very likely that he has significant political ties abroad. Had he not, he would not have remained this relevant for this long. But I do not think Levon is your typical Western-funded Russophobic activist. He is more of an Internationalist, a Globalist, a neo-Bolshevik. In a nutshell: Levon is an old school KGB type with ties in the West. He may therefore have have high level connections in the Anglo-American-Jewish world as well as in Russia. This interview suggests to me that Levon and company have come to an agreement/understanding with Russian and Western interests over Artsakh. And this may be why the Kremlin seems ok with his acolyte.
As suggested above, what makes Levon dangerous is this: He envisions making major unilateral concessions first, then expects the international community and Azerbaijan to reciprocate. What also makes Levon dangerous for a nation like Armenia is his Internationalist/Globalist ideology. The last thing Armenia needs today is Western style liberalism and multiculturalism. And another concern of mine is this: The major powers have their agendas to push. That's a given. We as a people, however, should be more intelligent and politically aware. We as a people should not be as easy to manipulate as we are. Moreover, while the major powers are trying to solve their geostrategic problems by putting into power people like Nikol and Levon, neo-Bolshevik/Globalist activists for their part are also trying to push their agendas by taking advantage of the situation at hand by penetrating into circles of government. At the end of the day, as long as Armenia remains in Russia's military and economic orbit, Kremlin officials would not care much about Globalists and their agendas in Armenia. At the end of the day, Armenia's internal health and well being is the responsibility of us Armenians.
I don't believe anything that comes out of LTP's mouth. He understands what the globalist mafia wants, because he is with them, not what Armenians and especially Artsakh Armenians want. I don't know to what extent his relationship to Pashinyan is currently, regardless of what it was previously, but Pashinyan's latest hint that Artsakh needs to become part of the peace talks is a seeming contradiction to LTP's position, and actually the correct approach because that is the method by which the possibility exists that all talk of "handing over Armenian lands to Azerbaijan" becomes irrelevant overnight. I have no positive words for the Traitor LTP. My judgment of Pashinyan is currently on standby. I hope he is just playing LTP and ends up effecting real positive changes for Armenia. But we shall see.
DeleteWhen major powers want to settle issues, they do so at the expense of weakest power. What levon has continuously done is ensure Armenia remain the weaker power.
DeleteAny land concession now would deprive Armenia of defensive depth which will set us up for more massacres 50 years from now. Had we taken Nakhichevan in the 90s as our military commanders wanted but levon prevented, the argument would have been different today. The railway issue would have been solved as well.
As long as the turk doesn't give up its intention to eliminate Armenia, then Armenia shouldn't give up its intention to add strategic depth whenever possible.
The whole region, including Russia and Iran would benefit greatly if the Turkish element is reduced from Azerbaijan and autonomy is returned to the native Lezgis, Talishes.
Our pathetic leadership should be lobbying in these directions not working to reduce our influence. Serge and Robert did sustain status quo and enrich themselves at the expense of the country which has weakened the country significantly but what Levon has masterminded is pure evil treachery.
Levon the bastard traitor, clever or not so clever it is a matter of indifference, and his grand scheme to "settle" artsakh's situation is past its shelf life. This is not 1992. The west is indifferent to the question of Artsakh, and rightly so, they have no business whatsoever meddling into Armenia's internal affairs. As for Russia the Artsakh issue is categorically not a sore or open wound which necessitates their inordinately urgent attention. It would run counter to Russian national interests to try and "enforce a peace favoring Azerbaijan or the Turks. Levon's plans, oskanian's pet schemes of trading "territory" for peace is akin to the insoluble Arab Israel's conflict and its bankrupt formula of land for peace. To have peace you need both parties acquiescence and willingness to achieve it. In the Artsakh scenario the salient and towering stumbling bloc is that there is absolutely no interest, nor need, from the Turks perspective to agree to "peace". Besides, there is no need to panic from their Turkish perspective. The clock of history is on their side. Demographically they are well ahead in the racial race. What did Armenia do with the breadth of territory in her possession these last 25 years . What did Armenians , worldwide, do in artsakh. The territory and adjoining lands were not populated. They are wide open, and nature does not tolerate open spaces. While Armenians emigrate, the Turks's birth rate grows tangentially. There can not be peace in artsakh, because Azerbaijan will not submit to peace terms, territory concessions or not. If a kind of clamp ( fake peace) is imposed upon both parties, it will not be of a permanent nature and it will only serve like an armistice while Azerbaijani demographics does the rest. Armenia can give up any territories they think, a la Levon or oskanian or any other mercenary to foreign interests, call them globalists or pan integrationists or anything else, it only will mean that Armenia is "negotiating with herself" a master game at master deception. The Azeri Turks will not be a party to it . if Russia want to "close open wounds,"in the Caucasus, let her start looking at Ossetia and Abkhazia first and foremost vis a vis the Georgians To resolve their conflict with the Georgians it is far more "urgent" and pressing open wound for Russia than the Armenio turco conflict.
DeleteTiranian, you are making number of assumptions that do not correspond to reality. Also, your emotions are again clouding your logic. The West is NOT indifferent to the question of Artsakh. The West is actually very pro-Azerbaijan. The West wants to see the matter settled in the benefit of Azerbaijan. Moreover, the Artsakh conflict is indeed a dangerous open wound for Russia. There are a number of serious hot-spots that require the Kremlin's full attention. The Artsakh dispute, which is right on its border and has the potential to draw Turkey and Iran into the fight, is something Moscow feels is the right time to settle. Make no mistake about it, Moscow wants to settle the matter. Unlike the West, however, it does not take Azerbaijan's side. Moscow can accept a settlement that would benefit Armenians; it would also accept a settlement that would benefit Azeris. The point is, Moscow wants the matter settled one way or another. It is therefore up to us Armenians to have an impact on their decision. It's here that we have failed miserably. Armenians are missing in action in Moscow, as Azeri and pro-Azeri lobbyists are everywhere in Russia.
DeleteRegarding Ossetia and Abkhazia: Unlike Azerbaijan, Georgia is a small nation with a small, outdated military. More importantly, unlike Azerbaijan, Georgia is not getting ready to attack Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which would essentially be an attack on Russia. Azerbaijan on the other hand is a nation that is much larger and much wealthier than Armenia/Artsakh. Moreover, Azerbaijan is using its petro-dollars to amass a massive military potential, with the sole purpose of invading Artsakh.
To reiterate: The Kremlin has serious concerns in Ukraine, Syria and Iran. It wants to pacify the south Caucasus and bring it back into its orbit. It therefore has to settle the Artsakh dispute. As I noted above: From the Kremlin's standpoint, as long as the matter is resolved, it does not matter who will benefit the most in the end, Armenia or Azerbaijan. Because Azerbaijan is better run politically, and because Azerbaijan has taken lobbying efforts in Moscow very seriously, the final resolution may benefit Baku the most... maybe not. Time, and our political/diplomatic actions in this regard, will determine who will benefit the most.
In any case, at the end of the day, Armenians rank among the world's most politically ignorant and unstable peoples. Therefore, when it comes to Artsakh, learn to hope for the best (I say hope because nothing constructive is taking place from our end in this regard) and prepare for the worst (because the momentum/pendulum has been shifting towards Baku). At the end of the day, no one forced Armenians to mismanage Armenia, no one forced Armenians to neglect lobbying efforts in Russia and no one forced Armenians to bring into power a Levon acolyte. Whatever good or bad that will happen in the coming years will therefore be our doing and no one else.
It seems as if ltp is being used as a bogeyman to attack Pashinyan. For starters, there is no proof that the two are even close and on good terms. Having a meeting with him does not definitively prove that.
DeleteMoreover, ltp is a political corpse and doesn't have much influence. Any Armenian political leader that seriously considers giving up land is signing his own death warrant. And Russia is ok with the status quo because it allows official Moscow to maintain a hold over both Yerevan and baku. As for the west, while they tend to be turkophiles, as things stand now they are worried about losing turkey. Hence the recent statements of turkey leaving the nato, turkey joining brics, sanctions against turkish ministers, withholding sale of f-35 fighter jet, etc. And on an even more existential level, the western alliance is undergoing major tremors that are a prelude to the rise of a new international order. The coming of Trump was not built into the calculus of the globalists in the west hence the mass hysteria and censorship currently engulfing the political west and its subject peoples. In other words, the west doesn't care about the South Caucasus. It has a fire in its own house to deal with, and they don't seem to know how!
@LG
DeleteAll Armenian leaders know that they can't give up land, but they can weaken the country and destroy ties with Russia to the extent where the enemy conquers the land. Thus they wash their hands of guilt before their people. Its using a different tactic to achieve the same goal - by the book written by Ltp. Don't you realize this whole intrigue with the CSTO & Khatarutov is aimed exactly in this direction? How disgusting and unprofessional to quote the Russians.
Also can't you see the deep ideological and political connection between ltp and Nikol going back to 2008?
Arto2, it's pointless to explain such things. Armenians are primarily led by their egos and/or emotions. Armenians, regardless of wealth and/or education, are also quite naive when it comes to politics. Don't let anyone convince you that Levon is a political corpse. Levon was merely in hibernation. Today, with the "Karabakh Clan" discredited and defanged, he is relevant once more. Also, don't let anyone convince you that Nikol really divorced himself from Levon. Everything about Nikol and his administration suggests he is Levon's second coming.
DeleteThe fact that Nikol meet with Levon not to interrogate him for his past crimes but to discuss Artsakh, speaks volumes about who put Nikol into power. The fact that Nikol only speaks about crimes during the past "20 years", speaks volumes about who Nikol is serving. The fact that anti-Artsakh sentiments are rife among Nikol supporters, speaks volumes about what Nikol's position will be when the historic day comes. Nikol himself only somewhat hardened his stance on Artsakh shortly before his political movement hit the road. He ostensibly hardened his stance on Artsakh to make himself politically palatable.
In any case, please understand that all three previous presidents served an agenda to keep Armenia politically and economically weak. At least in the minds of the international community, a politically and economically weak and internally troubled Armenia can be made to agree to major land concessions. Where Levon has made land concessions his primary goal in life, Robert and Serj merely played the political game, caring only to delay/prolong the matter. Nevertheless, the international community and its servants in Armenia were unable to bring Armenia to its knees through hardships. Now, they may be trying another approach. I believe the international community is putting renewed pressure on Armenia. This may be the reason why Serj washed his hands and disappeared from the political scene. Serj may have given Nikol, or is successor, the 'honor" of agreeing to land concessions. I think the next couple of years will be crucial. Before the Artsakh matter is resolved in accordance to international community's wishes, they first need to sow political unrest in Armenia (which is what is slowly brewing in Armenia) and sow problems between Yerevan and Moscow -
'No more servility' in Armenian-Russian relations, says analyst: http://www.tert.am/en/news/2018/08/02/stepan-grigoryan/2757254
Senior Russian MP lambasts Armenia’s decision to take part in NATO drills: http://tass.com/politics/1015845: http://tass.com/politics/1015845
Russia Irked Over Developments in Armenia, Warns of Consequences: https://www.civilnet.am/news/2018/08/02/Russia-Irked-Over-Developments-in-Armenia-Warns-of-Consequences/342506
Zatulin: Armenia Will Suffer if Russia's Opinion Is Ignored: http://www.turan.az/ext/news/2018/8/free/politics%20news/en/74030.htm
No anti-Russian subtext in Pashinyan’s actions, but he’s playing with fire, says expert: https://mediamax.am/en/news/foreignpolicy/29634/
Pashinyan teases Russian bear: Dugin on arrest of CSTO secretary general in Armenia: https://www.archyworldys.com/pashinyan-teases-russian-bear-dugin-on-arrest-of-csto-secretary-general-in-armenia/
@Arto2:
DeleteIf it was the goal of any of our presidents to weaken the country they all did so, from ltp thru Robert to Serj. The fact that we have people here glossing over the stagnation that gripped Armenia over the previous 10 years, the fact that we have no grand strategy to speak of, the fact that we have let our civilizational model be usurped by outside models with glee, already speaks volumes.
As for giving up lands, well if we are to believe the kooky dugin, we see that it was Serj who had agreed to land transfers and concessions and that it is Nikol who is not 'honoring' those commitments. Read the last article Arevordi posted. Of course I think Dugin is an agent of the SVR. He is currently playing up his pro-turkic credentials; be that as it may he is not a neutral observer. The Khachaturov case is being overplayed and overemphasized by forces in and out of Russia who wish to sow discord in Armenian-Russian relations. Does that not seem obvious to you?
As a side note, what is it with some of our officers who are overweight and seemingly unhealthy. Is one to take these people as military minds of the first or second order or rather as chobans in military fatigues? Looking at Yuri Khachaturyan one can't help but think it is the latter. A good chunk of our officer corps is of low quality. We have been fortunate that our enemy in the east has an even lower standard among its officer corps.
I am of the opinion that during the April invasion by Azerbaijan, Armenia should have used that opportunity to break Azerbaijan's knees as a first step. Because the "leadership" of Armenia not only didn't do anything, but also didn't let the volunteers take care of business, thus letting Azerbaijan get away with keeping Artsakh lands, it made me lose all respect for Serjik and his party. And all along, I thought he was doing something worthwhile all those years of ignoring Armenia's problems and supposedly "preparing Armenia for a big war". Little did we all realize that the widespread looting of Armenia which started with LTP was still on going, that's why Serjik was afraid of any war, because it would have exposed everything. But then Pashinyan's rise accomplished the exposure of all the corruption even though, at least in part. And this is where I think a positive thing happened in Armenia so far as a result of Pashinyan's 'revolution'. Now, the thing that irks me about Armenia and its people all this time though, is the fact that LTP has not been arrested, tried, deposed, whatever. Completely removed from ANY relevance for Armenia. The fact that he is still around and is even getting to have meetings with Pashinyan tells me that since 'independence' Armenia always was and still is politically retarded.
Delete@LG
DeleteYou're seriously judging the man by the way he looks? Khachatov is not going to grab a gun and run on the battlefield, he's an administrator. He was the chairman of the CSTO, the eurasian equivalent of nato. If they had a problem with him they could have waited until his 3 year chairmanship was up in 2020. If they've waited 10 yrs they could have waited 2 more. It was a deliberate slap in the face of Russia and a deliberate cause of world-wide embarrassment for both Armenia and the CSTO while simultaneously Armenia participating in nato games in Georgia. Its not overplayed as you say? Symbolism is everything in diplomatic language.
@Arevordi,
Recall the discussion we had earlier about the crystallizing of real Armeno-centrist political force not occurring because there's no financial force behind it. This I believe is Russia's biggest strategic mistake. Where else is the political and financial support supposed to come from to counter soros and usaid if not from Russia? At least there could have been a more serious attempt at fixing things. I find it hard to believe that during 25 years, a few friendly visits from the GRU wouldn't have set any of the presidents somewhat straight. The US has the Zapruder film, we should have had ours too.
Pashinian son has been enlisted in the army and is serving in Artsakh. That is a very noble and patriotic spirit. Pashinian will not be able to rid the corruption. He may, a big ask, reduce the level of corruption. Corruption is endemic and pandemic. It is a disease. Nationalism can overcome corruption, but then the nation needs to be educated into nationalism. The USA is rampant with the most brutal and brazen corruption, but it is so transparent that it is made to look legal. I don't want to go down the cesspool of corruption that's has poisoned every single member of the EU, and the Eu itself. It is also time to bring charges of corruption against Petrosian and haul him before he courts. Pashinian himself should also be investigated. The problem is that everyone past and present were in one way or another enmeshed and entwined in the ring of corruption which infected Armenia's body politic. If there had not been the war facing Armenia, the levels of corruption would have been much much deeper and profound. It is as it is. The ongoing war, on the front lines and the imminent dangers of it flaring into a larger and longer conflagration serves, in a manner of speaking, to keep Armenia on its toes. When the survival and sovereignty of the nation is at stake certain priorities of war will consume energies and occupation. I don't believe Pashinian was what Armenia deserved, but was there someone else? They misrepresent the ineptitude, cowardice, apathy and inertia of Serj's, as the result of a Velvet Revolution. There was no revolution, velvet or silken, it was a change of the guard , those who were tired and exhausted left the scene nonchalantly, and the new faces took their seats. The fact that the new sheriffs in town are persecuting and jailing figures of the previous government is a political vendetta. Some of them they need jailing, like he one keeping a zoo through state funds.
DeleteSonofamalek,
DeleteThis is like when NATO officials state that their military drills in Georgia (where Armenians and Turks stand shoulder to shoulder) are not directed against Russia. What I'm saying is this: Learn to disregard official statements, be it from Russians, be it from Americans, be it from Turks, be it from Armenians. Instead, observe what's being done on the ground, juxtapose it to the bigger geopolitical picture, and then draw from conclusions from it. And remember that where there is smoke. there is fire. News about the possible suspension of Russian arms sales to Armenia was clearly a warning. It doesn't matter if it was later denied. Moreover, Lavrov's displeasure over Khachaturov's situation was also a clear warning. It's obvious that problems between Russia and Armenia are gradually increasing today. It's a deliberate effort. Russians probably don't mind it this way. Armenia is currently the subject of a conspiracy. This may all climax in Artsakh in the next couple of years.
Arto2,
Armenia's internal health and well being is the responsibility of us Armenians, not Russians. If we can't get our house in order, we don't deserve to own a house. Russia is the world's largest nation. Russia faces serious threats against its sovereignty from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Russians know they can control the south Caucasus the easy way (where all three nations voluntarily recognize Russia's hegemony) or the hard way (where they sow conflict among all three nations). In other words, Russians don't have the time, the expertise, the free cash or the political culture to pursue social engineering projects like the West does around the world. Remember that the West has honed its social engineering skills for over a century. Russians simply cannot compete with them in this regard. They therefore resort to more traditional/conventional methods. In other words, strong arm tactics. Russians know that by controlling Armenia's economic, military and energy lifelines - all of which was thankfully placed into Russian control by the "Karabakh Clan" - Armenia cannot go anywhere. At the end of the day, Russia is an old world power. They operate for the most part by traditional methods. If you are seeking superficial fluff or feel good rhetoric or a lot of fake smiles, photo-ops and handshakes, then you would be better off hanging out with Westerners. Russians simply do not operate that way. It's not in their nature/culture. We as a people need to appreciate blunt honesty over insincere civility. We as a people need to step up and get our act in order.
PS: Your comment about the Zapruder film was spot on. Every American president since has had the film on back of his mind. But, look at it this way: The event on October 27, 1999 was in a certain sense our Zapruder film. They (most probably the GRU) massacred our leadership because our leadership was getting ready to agree to the Paul Goble plan, which Levon Petrosyan calls "Key West" in his interview. Robert Kocharyan (who may have been involved in the operation in question) was spared to continue Armenia's pro-Russian trajectory and maintain the status quo in Artsakh. So, by going after Kocharyan, Nikol is going after Russian interests.
Arevordi, you are right that our nation is our responsibility but let me put it another way. If NATO were to line up missile defense systems in Turkey, Romania.. etc, wouldn't Russia respond with counter systems? The soft systems the west is deploying via soros and the us embassy also require counter responses, albeit softer ones. But your points are well taken.
DeleteI don't know if nikol is involved in a conspiracy against the nation ; but every time I hear his name mentioned it causes nausea. On the Artsakh matter, this is an unsolvable issue, short of Azerbaijan acknowledging and resigning itself to the status quo and historical background of Armenian lands. From the Russian side they are not in a rush to " settle" the issue. The Russians have far greater unsettled issues facing them ( Ukraine; Lugannsk,Donbas, Syria, Georgia- threatening to join Nato- Moldova, Nato aggrandizement encroaching on Russias vital borders ) to be sidetracked end get into a meddle on an Armenian piece of territory which is wrongfully claimed by the Azerbaijan. The Southern Caucasus is quiet at the moment, save for the firing on the frontline. The region can't become de stabilized on account of the firing on the frontline and Azerbaijan may increase its firepower but will not start a war unless certain of Russia's intentions and reaction. The region can definitely become a simmering cauldron and volatility if Georgia does make moves toward Nato integration or viceversa. Russia also needs to watch out the seditious gang of Nikol's and his cohorts with their western inclinations. They don't need a truncated Armenia by ceding Artsakh to the turks and shoving Armenia into an even more precarious and perilous position.
DeleteAny putative settlement ,along the compromising framework of the architects of peace, of this conflict can only mean Armenian losses and Azerbaijany gains, it does not serve Russia's geopolitical interests. In the greater sum of the geopolitical designs the former enclave , an integral part of Armenia, can not change in any significant manner the regional balance.
@Arto2: Yes, I am judging the man by the fact that he has a problem with over eating. He is most probably a drinker and smoker too. A person who can't keep his weight under control, especially a military officer, is likely to have psychological issues. Consider and contrast American or Russian top generals physical appearance. How many fat @ss types are there?
DeleteNo, 'symbolism is not everything in diplomatic language.' Diplomacy is a full spectrum craft - and the better name is statecraft. Maybe Armenia could have used a different tactic to get Khachaturov, but it is the right of Armenia to remove an officer whom they no longer have faith in and wish to prosecute. Moreover, other than Russia, the CSTO doesn't provide security for Armenia. The 2 other primary members - Belarus and Kazakhstan - have close ties with baku and supply our enemy with weapons. In the case of Belarus, their leader handed over a blogger who visited Artsakh to baku even though they could have sent him to israel. This event reminded me of the Hungarian government sending the axe murder ramil to baku in 2012, to serve out the remainder of his sentence. We all know how that worked out.
Armenia is only in CSTO because of Russia, and because official Moscow asked or forced us to join. Mind you, I am not anti-CSTO, far from it, but lets not kid ourselves into believing that the Kazakhs or Belorussians will die to defend Armenia from its enemies. Not gonna happen!
@LG
DeleteYes you are right, Belarus and Kazakhstan will definitely stand against Armenia, but the important thing is our relationship with Russia which if had been cultivated properly would have been able to exert pro-Armenian influence on those 2 countries. It is what you call statecraft. Arevordi has been screaming about our lack of lobbying in the Kremlin, now we just went from nonexistent lobbying to down-right sabotage. The failed attempt at removing Kachaturov was deliberate sabotage aimed against Moscow. If they wanted Kachaturov they could have waited 2 more years. They have no shortage of criminals in Armenia to go after. In the end it only hurt us and our relationship with Russia and exposed some possible ideological battles raging our govt.
http://groong.com/news/msg634691.html
No one ,even Russia, will die defending Armenia. No Armenian should even harbor a desire and hope that someone else will rush to her aid in the hour of danger. Armenia's only ally is Russia and that is because Armenia is akin to Russia's backyard in- political terms-, a historical bond which stretches back more than 2 centuries. A strong Armenia plays in the hands of Russia. Russian strategy and foothold in the southern caucasus pivots on the Armenian factor. The real danger stems from old time and part time bolchevik-neo bolcheviks ideologues (or Dugin's sham philosophers prototypes who do nothing else but smoke their socks while ruminating on turkophile sentiments) gain prominence and prevail in the kremlin.
DeletePoint number one: Many Russians have already died in Armenia fighting Turks and Persians, and more will surely die if Armenia is ever threatened again, albeit purely for geostrategic reasons. In fact, the modern republic of Armenia exists today in large part because Russian troops have fought to liberate the territory from Turkish, Iranian and Muslim rule. Look at it this way: If official Moscow is willing to put Russian troops in danger in places like Syria, Donbass, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it will also put Russian troops in danger in defense of Armenia. The only Russian condition for this would be Armenia's unconditional allegiance to it. As long as Armenia remains within the Russian orbit and as long as the south Caucasus is threatened by Turks, Persians, Muslims and Western interests, Armenia will continue playing a major strategic role for Russia, and Kremlin officials will as a result not hesitate to send Russian troops to help Armenia in times of need. No one here is saying that Armenians should lay back and hope that Russians alone will fight for Armenia. That approach will never work. Russians will never respect a nation that has that kind of mentality. What I'm saying is that Armenians alone - regardless of how much "dux" they have - will not be able to protect Armenia from regional predators and that Armenia's natural ally, in fact it's only ally, is the Russian nation. As I always say, if Armenia's armed forces is its tactical advantage on the local battlefield, Armenia's alliance with Russia should be used as its strategic advantage on the global battlefield.
DeletePoint number two: A strong or prosperous Armenia does not necessarily mean an Armenia that is pro-Russian. In the long term, a strong/prosperous Armenia will most probably mean an Armenia that will not willingly remain within the Russian orbit. If Armenians today think they can solve all of Armenia's problems merely by uniting, imagine how they would feel if Armenia was truly strong. Armenians have been close to Russia for the past two hundred years because Armenians have instinctively understood that Armenia cannot survive without Russia. When Armenians think they can survive without Russia, there is no guarantee that Armenia will remain within Russia's orbit. Look at it this way: Had it not been for the genocide, Armenians, like Georgians, would most probably be Turkish-leaning, especially because genetically and culturally Armenians are closer to Turks than they are to Russians. The main point here is that there is no such thing as trust in politics. Russian officials would therefore rather keep Armenia dependent on Russia, than strengthen Armenia and then merely hope/pray that it stays close to it. The only way Russian officials would allow a truly strong and prosperous Armenia is if Armenia is fully integrated into Russia's political/economic/civilizational orbit.
Left on their own, Armenians in Armenia have a genetic tendency to be drawn to Turkish, Middle East, Indian and Central Asian cultural influences. For the past two hundred-plus years, the Russian nation has been the only regional civilizational factor that has exposed Armenians to classical European/western influences. All of our major national icons during the past two hundred years (e.g. Ayvazovsky, Surenyants, Saryan, Khanjyan, Orbelian, Alikhanyan, Hambartsumyan, Khachaturyan, Babajanyan, Abovyan, Tumanyan, Sevak, Aghayan, Parajanov, Adjaryan, Mikoyan, Baghramyan, Tamanyan, Mantashov, etc) have lived in territories under Russian and/or Soviet control. Armenian culture has been in severe decline in the post Soviet period. Just turn on Armenian television to see what I mean. At the end of the day, if we want Armenia to survive, and do so as a Christian/European civilization, Armenia has to remain within Russia's political orbit and Armenians should put all their resources on deepening it's ties with Russia.
Բարի գալուստ "նոր Հայաստան", welcome to "New Armenia" -
ReplyDeleteՎարդգես Գասպարին բողոքի ակցիա իրականացրեց ընդդեմ Ռ. Քոչարյանի և ՌԴ-ի: https://www.facebook.com/azatutyun/videos/2063676140344419/
Imagine what security or police would have doe to this Western funded mentally damaged semi-human in any other civilized nation. It's deranged subhumans like the one we see in the link above that were essentially emboldened as a result of Nikol's "Velvet Revolution".
"New Armenia" is also a place now where Levon Petrosyan's party officials not only openly and arrogantly claim territories around Artsakh were not liberated but "occupied" but also that there is no historical proof that those territories belong to Armenians in the first place -
Արցախի ազատագրված տարածքներն իրականում գրավյալ տարածքներ են․ ՀԱԿ անդամ: http://politik.am/%D5%A1%D6%80%D6%81%D5%A1%D5%AD%D5%AB-%D5%A1%D5%A6%D5%A1%D5%BF%D5%A1%D5%A3%D6%80%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%AE-%D5%BF%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%A1%D5%AE%D6%84%D5%B6%D5%A5%D6%80%D5%B6-%D5%AB%D6%80%D5%A1%D5%AF%D5%A1%D5%B6/
I am glad however that increasing numbers of people are now beginning to wake up to our troubling new reality in Armenia -
Փողը եկել է կոնկրետ մարդկանցից, անփող հեղափոխություններ չեն լինում. Քաղաքագետ: http://yerevan.today/all/politics/19193/poghy-ekel-e-konkret-mardkancic-anpogh-heghapokhutyunner-chen-linum-qaghaqaget
Բոլոր նախագահներից Նիկոլ Փաշինյանը հանդիպում է միայն Լևոն Տեր-Պետրոսյանին. ինչո՞ւ: http://yerevan.today/all/politics/19028/bolor-nakhagahneric-nikol-pashinyany-handipum-e-miayn-levon-ter-petrosyanin-incho
Վարչապետի տիկնոջ պացիֆիստական հայտարարությունը բուռն արձագանք է գտել: https://iravunk.com/news/63137
Court of Appeals Frees Kocharian from Custody
ReplyDeletehttp://asbarez.com/174306/court-of-appeals-frees-kocharian-from-custody/
Protesters Force Cancellation Of Armenian Ex-President's Press Conference
https://www.rferl.org/a/protesters-force-cancellation-armenian-ex-president-s-press-conference-pashinian-kocharian/29433496.html
An Attack in Syunik Said to Have Targeted LGBT Activists
http://asbarez.com/174224/an-attack-in-syunik-said-to-have-targeted-lgbt-activists/
LGBT community representatives invade police station in Yerevan
https://news.am/eng/news/466354.html
Nikol is turning armenia into a banana republic very fast. I am beginning to miss our old chobans
Welcome to Nikol's Armenia. President Robert Kocharyan's arrest was a vendetta similar to what we see in Third World countries around the world. The current regime knew there was no legal basis for his arrests, but they did so anyway. They also know that Levon Petrosyan and Nikol Pashinyan were the real guilty parties for the bloodshed on March 1, 2008. Unlike what we see happening today, the previous government did not use the country's security services to go after foreign funded usurpers like Levon and Nikol. It's therefore alarming that the country's security services have become politicized and are being used as tools; similar to what we see in Latin American countries. The country is literally drowning in Western/American cultural and political influences; much more now than ever before the "Velvet Revolution". The country is also gradually moving toward mob rule and civilian lawlessness. At this rate, we may see an increase in the nation's crime rate as well as a decrease in its economic growth in the coming months/years. Globalists, homosexuals, anti-nationalists and anti-church activists in the country have never been as emboldened as they are now. Anglo-Americans have never been as emboldened as they are now. Levon Petrosyan and his representatives haven't had this much airtime/exposure to spread their anti-Artsakh agenda since 2008. Russians are increasingly getting tired of our people's immaturity. If this crap continues, pretty soon Tehran will be turning sour as well. The people or the so-called Street is so immersed in political illiteracy, emotional outbursts, hate and jealousy that virtually no one in the country is noticing the long-term serious dangers facing them today. The country's self-destructive peasantry is simply content with the "anti-corruption" show that has been in play. As predicted, none of the country's dreaded Oligarchs have been touched. Every week or so there is news of some low level thug/criminal being arrested somewhere in the country. Like the gradual administration of a narcotic dose, the show arrests are being done to keep the sheeple euphoric and inline with the regime's agenda.
DeleteSpot on, what is this Nikol rabble rouser is doing is an exact replica of what is going on in Latin America, in particular within Argentina. A change of government and a beastly persecution of yesteryear political figures on spurious and fabricated charges.In the meantime the economy is being wrecked, social fabric destroyed and malfeasance incresed exponentially. In Roman times they had bread and Circuses. In Argentina you have no bread but plenty of Circuses. I fear Armenia following Nikol's gang is going down the same route. This noxious toxin must be removed from the scene. Nikol crows about his velvet revolution . A counter "velvet" revolution to oust him and those of his ilk is called for. I hope Kocharian's support base makes an invigorated charge ( the supporters have threaten a counter revolution if there is not a fair trial; there can not be a fair trial until the two satanas Nikol and Levon are also arraigned before the courts of justice) to oust the odoriferous mob of nonentities that have mugged the government positions. And if the Armenian populace can not be woken up and kick the rascal back into the woods, then Russia ought to intervene and restore political sanity. The nation's life is at stake, and these hooligans are playing at party vendettas. Disgraceful and despicable. The Nikol circus can not endure, it will eventually peter out, but in the meantime irreversible damage could be the end result.
DeleteArevordi, what are your thoughts around Levon Shirinyan and his new Christian Democratic party
ReplyDeleteԱնվերապահորեն պաշտպանելու ենք թավշյա հեղափոխության գաղափարները․ Լևոն Շիրինյան
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7jmc3jaJIE
I have been observing Levon Shirinyan for many years now. He is just another one of your foreign funded Russophobes. What makes him different from your typical foreign funded "experts" is that he presents himself to the public as a patriot. Trust me Arto, there is no naturally homegrown and genuinely patriotic political movement in the country. Also, while there are a number of pro-Western, pro-European, pro-Globalist movements, there is not a single pro-Russian movement anywhere in the country. Armenian television is a showcase of Indian soap operas and Armenians acting like spoiled/degenerate Americans. As I keep saying, Armenia is stuck between backward chobans and Western funded mercenaries. The country is rotting from the inside. Needless to say, the previous regime is also guilty.
DeleteIf we can't get our house in order, we don't deserve a house. Before anyone brings it up. it's not Russia's responsibility to get our house in order. Russians have their own internal troubles to worry about. The Kremlin is content with having a couple of military bases in Armenia, as well as Armenia's total dependence on Russia. Russians know better than us Armenians that Armenia has no alternative to Russia. They therefore don't get too involved in our country's dirty domestic affairs.
Just the other day, a good friend of mine (a patriot and a nice guy, who also happens to be doing financial well due to a business his family owns) told me he is encouraging his children to neglect Russian and concentrate instead on learning English in school. I asked him why. He said, so that they can have an easier time getting around in Europe and the United States. He added, other than Russia, where else can you use Russian? I asked him, isn't that a narrow worldview? I asked him, who is Armenia's largest trading partner? He said, Russia. I asked him, who is Armenia's largest financial investor? He said, Russia. I asked him, who is Armenia only supplier of affordable arms? He said, Russia. I asked him, who is Armenia's only provider of affordable energy? He said, Russia. I asked him, where do most of Armenia's tourists come from? He said, Russia. I asked him, where is Armenia's largest Diaspora located? He said, Russia. I asked him, who's military and economic bloc does Armenia belong to? He said, Russia. I said to him, knowing all this you are still neglecting the Russian language which is strategically important to Armenia and teaching your children English? He paused for a moment and said, you are right, I had not thought of it that way. But added, learning English is in fashion these days and nothing is going to change it.
Incidentally, he supports Nikol Pashinyan not because he likes him but because he hates Serj Sargsyan. So, his political worldview is based on emotions.
The moral of this story: My good friend is the embodiment of the Armenian nation. There is a severe lack of perception; there is a dangerously distorted worldview; and there is a great surplus of political ignorance in the country. As much as I hate to say it, Armenians deserve all the black pages in their history.
Arshak Zakaryan's comments on where Nikol's Armenia is heading.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgyS4yPr8VE
I have a lot of respect for Arshak Zakaryan. He is a sober minded patriot, he understands geopolitics and he always tries very hard to remain nonpartisan with regards to domestic politics in Armenia. In the early part of his talk, he blames Nikol's government for sowing fear and chaos in Armenian society, similar to what US government does in American society in order to manipulate it. In this regard, he also refers to yet another Western funded character named Hayk Martirosyan, who recently called on Nikol to essentially cancel the nation's constitution, dissolve the parliament and jail all his opponents. Western funded Bolsheviks have returned to Armenia -
DeleteՀակահեղափոխությունը նոր թափ է առնում․ օգոստոսի 17-ի հանրահավաքին պետք է խորհրդարանը ցրել: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4q2E4dfLgQ
"We have in Armenia a government that in my opinion does not understand [the region's difficult geopolitics] because it does not have the experience; [a government] that does not understand that it cannot belittle the military; [a government] that is very far from the military and one that does not understand that in this [geopolitical] reality only a strong military is the real guarantor of our state. They are taking steps to try to disrupt the balance that Armenia had painstakingly created in its difficult [geopolitical] reality ... [Nikol Pashinyan's government] is not adequately assessing what is happening outside of Armenia. They don't have the experience, don't blame them. I don't blame them. How would they have the experience when they have been busy working for Soros funded social organizations on completely different things. In my opinion, all that funding is suggesting, perhaps it's coming from Azerbaijan, perhaps from Turkey, via different funds" - Former president Robert Kocharyan, about why he has returned to politics.
ReplyDeletePlease watch the entire interview by the former president. This is essentially what Levon's and Nikol's hooligans did not want you to hear several days ago, when they stormed the venue where President Robert Kocharyan was due to hold a press conference and forced its cancellation. If Karen Karapetyan wants to stay out of Armenian politics (and I cant blame him if he does), I would like to see this man as the leader of Armenia again -
Ռոբերտ Քոչարյանի հարցազրույցը՝ ամբողջությամբ: http://yerkirmedia.am/1political/robert-qocharyan-harcazruyc/
Arevordi, I often see you criticizing Armenians for their belief that unity will fix many things. Now, I understand that's a flawed way of thinking, however, is it not something Armenians should strive for rather than being separated?
ReplyDeleteThere is a nuance here that you are not taking into consideration. Unity is no doubt something that is to be strived for. However, thinking that unity will solve all of Armenia's problems, specially those pertaining to geopolitics, is something to be feared. In other words, a domestic cat that looks in the mirror and sees wild lion won't have a long life.
DeleteVigen Sarkisian's outgoing statements:
DeleteOutgoing Minister Warns Of Further Turmoil In Armenia: https://www.azatutyun.am/a/29217453.html
Pashinian's statements today amounting to a declaration of mob-rule, what vigen warned about? Your thoughts please.
What are you thoughts on Kocharyans comeback being staged? This whole thing being a show?
----
Cat looking in the mirror seeing lion is not the right analogy. That amounts to delusional. You want Armenians as a nation to view themselves as weak, helpless, hopeless? Much like in individual persons, that sort of thinking will destroy nations as well. Plus, I don't see anybody in Armenia advocating a war against Turkey. You gotta be reasonable, rational, and know your limitations, and how to makeup for them another way, but cat seeing a lion in the mirror? that's a disrespect to the heroic pages of Armenian history, where being little we went up against great odds and succeded.
Regarding the first part of your comment: I agree with Vigen Sargsyan. What happened three months ago is not by definition a revolution. The political system in the country has remained intact. What changed was merely the ruling administration. And it was changed through illegal means. It can be argued that the ruling administration was in power via illegal means as well. But two wrongs don't make a right. The fact is, Nikol rose to power illegally. As I suggest in my blog commentary, everything we see happening in Armenia recently is pointing in one direction: The country is heading towards a very risky internal political clash. Everything that is currently happening in Armenia suggests, political interests, both foreign and domestic, are trying to sow political chaos inside Armenia. It is therefore a show. They are setting the stage for a future event. I don't know it's ultimate purpose. But I feel it may be related to Artsakh. In the meanwhile, Globalist activists, many of who were appointed important governmental positions by Nikol, are taking the opportunity to push their neo-Bolshevik agenda in the country.
DeleteRegarding the second part of your comment: You are taking my comments out of context or simply misinterpreting it. I suggest you put aside emotions and try to see the bigger picture at hand. When it comes to their abilities, I want Armenians to be objective, analytical, rational and realistic. Events one hundred years ago should have thought us that the south Caucasus is not a place to make mistakes. Despite what you want to believe to make yourself feel good about your ethnic identity, the reality is that there is a lot of delusion inside Armenian society today. In my opinion, it all stems from emotions, pride, arrogance and political illiteracy (naivete). I realize that simple minded people (the masses or the so-called Street) have a need to believe in certain fairytales in order to feed their egos, or in this case console their post-genocide ethnic pride. Had we had a "heroic" past we would not be where we are today. I guess you and I differ in the way we define heroic. All the heroic past you are referring to (mainly Avarayr and Sardarapat and perhaps Artsakh) has to do with us barely surviving. Those were desperate battles of survival. Had we been a truly "heroic" people, we would not be involved in such battles in the first place. As I said, had we been a truly "heroic" people, we would not be where we are today. We have a very rich culture. We are genetically very talented and intelligent. We have a very interesting/fascinating national history. But a "heroic" people we are not, I am sad to say. To avoid further calamities and catastrophes in the future, we need to better asses our capabilities as a nation/people, and better understand the political world we live in. Are are as always failing to do both.
"Those were desperate battles of survival. Had we been a truly "heroic" people, we would not be involved in such battles in the first place."
DeleteAllow us to be in disagreement. Those were not battles of our choosing. They were forced on us, and we had to deal with the hand we were dealt. Our resistance in various episodes of history were nothing short of miraculous, and heroic indeed. A gorilla picking on a kitten is pathetic --let him test his strength against someone it's own size. The cat scratching the gorilla's eye out in self-defense is heroic.
Yes, allow us to be in disagreement. But I am glad you feel this way. I do understand the psychological need to feel empowered and in control of your destiny. I just suggest not getting into extremism, which can turn into delusion, which can in turn prove self-destructive.
Delete"Yes, allow us to be in disagreement. But I am glad you feel this way. I do understand the psychological need to feel empowered and in control of your destiny. I just suggest not getting into extremism, which can turn into delusion, which can in turn prove self-destructive."
DeleteI'm truly amazed at how someone with your strong intellectual and analytical abilities, can at times be so irrational and illogical. Your Russia/Putin fetish obscures your clarity of thought. Anything distortedly construed as "anti Russia" on your part, even if it happens to be pro-Armenia, and all your rationality, logic and intellect goes out the window--a true shame. Try to stay impartial, and take your own advice and don't let your emotions (i.e. Russia fetish) obscure your clarity of thought.
P.S. You sure like to mimic key words back to their original source a lot!
When you put an end to your unhealthy fetish with me, you may begin to see that my political outlook is firmly rooted in logic and reality, and my Russophilia is firmly rooted in Armenocentrism. Simply put: I am a Russophile because I am an Armenian nationalist. My nationalism, however, should not be confused with the self-destructive/suicidal nationalistic belief that when united Armenians can go it alone in the south Caucasus, or that Russia has to treat Armenia as an "equal". That's the cat seeing a lion in the mirror, mental disorder. The reality our nation faces is this: We are part of the Russian orbit; we will die outside of it. Armenia exists today because of the Russian factor in the region. Armenia needs Russia much more than Russia needs Armenia. Thinking that Russia needs Armenia just as much, or even more as some claim, is a sign of delusion. Simply put: No Russia in Armenia equals no Armenia in the south Caucasus. Period. This is why I have been calling on misled/asleep individuals like you to end your day dreaming about a "ծովից ծով Հայաստան" and fully embrace the Russian nation - like how Jews have embraced the United States for the benefit of Israel. Armenians who preach disengagement from Russia - or even complimentary politics - are in fact Armenia's most dangerous enemies today. When you wake up from your "fedayi" inspired fairytales, you will begin to better appreciate the message of this blog. Until then, your mindset is very typical for Western led/inspired Armenian nationalists who led Armenia into disaster one hundred years ago. In a nutshell: For the past two hundred years, the "Russian fetish" of individuals like me has allowed misled individuals like you have an Armenian homeland in a sea of Turks and Muslims. So, in that sense, you're welcome...
DeleteWhat does one make of Nuikol's speeches and theatrical antics in the square with his blowing horn. He begins to resemble an authentic globalist-neocon- dyed in the wool. The question is whether he is telling some truths, which are laudable, or spewing forth a farrago of balderdash. He says " more foreigners" have entered Armenia since he took over the government ( since he usurped the government); the real estate market has shot up by 20%. Banks deposits have swelled with inflows from abroad. He adds that after any " revolution" there is an economic downturn, but in this case , of having mugged the presidency, the economic activity and optimism has sky rocketed. The next thing he might invite Mesdames Lagarde and Lucine to come to Armenia and get shots of the toxic recipe handed out by these mafia brigands to every country they want to destroy economically, socially, politically and demographically. Typical examples like Greece, Argentina etc. He calls the Armenians coming from abroad " foreigners" - he says these " foreigners" are buying apartments in every city and town. These" foreigners" were, and are, coming to Armenia regardless of his " revolution". The inflow of foreigners-Armenians has not increased because of his delusional velvet hijacking of the government. The inflow of Armenians from abroad will be an incremental process.There will be many more coming to the homeland year after year; but this is not going to be as a result of Niko'ls rabble rousing exhortations. Maybe all of what he has said it's true ?. I don't know. The longer these journalist mobster stays in center stage the worse it is for the nation.
ReplyDeleteArevordi, you mentioned previously that Armenia should focus its lobbying efforts more in Russia, China, etc. However, the goal of Russia in Armenia seems relatively clear, they want a strategic foothold in the region and we mutually benefit. But, what is China's purpose, the same thing? And will Russia and China's interests collide if they both hold power in Armenia? Also, I recently found out a Chinese Institute opened up in Armenia.
ReplyDeleteChina is branching out allover the world. It's primarily an economic expansion. They are doing this to essentially lessen their nearly fifty years old dependence on the United States. There are currently no problems between Moscow and Beijing, and none is foreseen. In fact, Russian-Chinese relations are developing quite fast across all sectors; trade, energy, agriculture, science, military, diplomatic. Other than trade, China has no serious designs in the south Caucasus. Therefore, the growing Chinese presence in Armenia, which can be seen on the streets of Yerevan today, can only prove beneficial to Armenians. Last year the Chinese government began building a new embassy in Armenia which is said to be their second largest embassy, and it's very close to the US embassy, which is also one of the largest in the world -
DeleteChina Building New Embassy Complex In Armenia: https://www.azatutyun.am/a/28667832.html
China's footprint spreads and roots everywhere in the planet where there is space. The chineese will in the longer run develop the muscular capacity to deploy physically wherever they have planted roots. There could , there would be problems then. If you take the chineese conduct in Africa, e.g, they have enmeshed themselves, occupied and become entrenched in the spaces vacated by the Europeans. They come in softly and inconspicuously at first , in the dribs and drabs, a trickle, then one fine morning one realizes they have a massive chineese presence with their chinatowns and monopolies, where the native's language has been replaced by mandarin. In Barcelona the massive chinatown, where chinese migration filters in the lingua france is chineese, not spanish. In Argentina the chineese flux is on the invrease. In the space of 10 years they have taken complete control of the supermarkets chains, outside the Carrefour market share; textiles and some sectors which operate under the table. Every week there is a murder report of some chineese of sorts who was liquidated in a serttling of accounts. They are offering huge loans to the Argentine bankrupt government,to build factories in Patagonia , on condition they bring their chineese army of labourers and workers. In the 1990-2000 there were heady negotiations going on to build factories in the length and breadth of the country which would have required 1M chineese work force to cart across to Argentina. These negotiations failed before the heavy American pressure to abort the pharaonic projects of industries and migration. Similar cases are reported in Bolivia and Peru, Ecuador, etc . In Greece, chineese imigration shut down the Greek textile industries and factories and killing the industrial infrastructure of factories, supply chains and distribution, resulting in the loss of livelihood for thousands and thousand of Greeks. Chineese expansionism and imperialism it's a force that will have to be reckoned with in the last quarter of this century. The Kaiser's warning of the yellow peril was 2 centuries ahead of its time. A putative combination of japaneese brain power and chineese manpower would be capable of dominating the entire planet. The jews are busy figuring out how to arrest this potential nightmare, and trying to fit themselves in the centre of this dominion. The American Mattis, mad dog Mattis is visiting Argentina, then Brazil. The Americans and Israelis are committed to seal off the South Americas for their own gains and power. They understand that Asia could become out of their reach, Africa may be going sour , the ME is tilting toward Asia , Europe is still under their control, economically and militarily. The Russian world, at this stage, in the geopolitical arm wrestling is beyond the scope of their reach. All competing global powers are battening the hatches.
DeleteI have a couple of words to say about China. First of all as a nation and as a culture they are very much driven by money. Very hard working, resourceful and both family and nation oriented, although Godless. They are a largely homogeneous nation although they claim to have multiple nationalities, they are all of the same or similar genetic origin as the ethnic Han Chinese except for a Turkish minority called Uyghurs that number around 15 million and live on the border with Kazakhstan. The last few years these uyghurs have been receiving covert support from US Intel as well as Turkish Intel and grey wolves to commit terrorist acts and foment an Islamic independence movement to break from China. It has always been Turkey's + NATO's wet dream and China's + Russia's worst nightmare to have these uyghurs have a direct land connection to Turkey. The ONLY thing preventing that has been the little country called Armenia. Can we see the strategic importance of Armenia and the reason the the US and Chinese are building huge embassy complexes there, together with a large Russian military base? Also explains the Russian phobia about Georgia entering NATO, thus the Turkish arc bypassing Armenia.
DeleteHerein lies the tragedy, if we had anything that even slightly resembled a professional foreign policy and diplomatic core, Armenia could have milked this in both Beijing and Moscow. We would never have had to pay 1 cent for our military today and all our borders would be firmly secure, not to mention the economic benefit we could have received. Instead now we'll be on the receiving end of Chinese missiles on the Polonaz systems from Belarus. And we prefer to cry about how the Russians aren't really our friends and how the Belarusians are supporting our enemy, instead of judging our own diplomat failures, both past and especially present. The failure of Armenia's diplomacy has literally undone all the gain that was achieved on the battlefield in Artsakh.
On a separate note, I don't know who this guy is but he provides a balanced commentary on the current situation, both domestic and foreign. If you dont have time just listen from 12 minutes onwards.
Պարոն վարչապետ, չե՞ք հիշում ով առաջին անգամ Հայաստանում սահմանադրական կարգ տապալեց. Ռուբեն Հակոբյան
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKmkqEDOuzc
Responding to Turcoman:
DeleteChina's influence in SE Asia is also a major concern as well, and if you add the territorial disputes that it has with its SE Asian neighbors and the historical unbalanced relationships between the Chinese and its former SE Asian tributary states, there might be a good reason to fear and hate the Chinese giant. Countries like Cambodia are friendly to China, while others like Vietnam and the Philippines have been hostile to it. Vietnam, more so because of repeated Chinese attempts to conquer Vietnam. They fought several wars with each other throughout their existence. Here's an article of Vietnamese fears of a resurgent China:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2150653/anti-china-protests-vietnam-set-aggravate-tensions
http://www.atimes.com/article/vietnam-protests-bigger-than-anti-china-nationalism/
Examples of Filipino anti-Chinese sentiment:
http://www.atimes.com/article/anti-china-sentiment-rises-ashes-marawi/
https://www.philstar.com/nation/2018/06/04/1821370/senate-urged-probe-chinese-migration-philippines
http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/12/18/chinese-envoy-vows-action-on-harassment-of-filipino-fishermen
This is where I would have advocated for the US to take a much harder line against China, but with the world completely reliant on cheap Chinese goods, it's hopeless. To me personally, making peace with China is definitely NOT AN OPTION. Unfortunately, Japan can no longer become the dominant power it once was, the Koreas are divided and India is a wild card.
Hi Jerriko,
DeleteNice to hear from you. It was the US that created the monster called China. More specifically the globalists that have taken over the US. In 1995 China's GDP was 115 billion. In 2015 it was 11.3 Trillion. The net difference is equivalent to what the US lost in terms of high quality middle class manufacturing jobs. Technical know-how that took the Americans generations to develop, they gave it away to the Chinese in less than 20 years all for the sake of corporate profits. A bit too optimistic to expect the US to contain the monster they've voluntarily created, although Trump is trying but its too little too late. The only antidote will be the complete re-industrialization of the US and re-introduction of pre Clinton tariffs on all goods. Stop buying anything from China period. Idiot Americans on food stamps will survive without their plastic skeletons from Walmart. But realistically what are the chances of such a scenario, just look at the average American today and look at the deep state institutions that still control the country. A more realistic scenario would be for countries like Vietnam and Philippines to come to terms with the growing China and find some negotiated solution to territorial disputes. And more importantly, prohibit selling your lands to foreigners or soon you'll all be talking Chinese.
So the Chinese are building a large, large embassy in Armenia. Why and what for. The USA has also a very large embassy in Armenia. There will be little or no advantage in a geopolitical and material sense, for Armenia having a dis-proportionally large Chinese profile. Our geopolitical case is handled by Russia and that is good enough; although it could perhaps be better in certain issues, but depends more on Armenians than the Russians. The Chinese have a conspicous presence in Iran too- and in Erdogan's turkey. Iran is a different country from Armenia. What business could possibly the chinese have in Armenia to match the size of the American embassy. What produce can Armenia export to China, and in what quantities? China, on the contrary, can flood the Armenian market with the shoddiest quality of goods and smother entire nascent manufacturing industries. Chinese influence in any country is coupled with a large influx of chinese migration. The last thing Armenia needs is " diversity" with a statutory sprinkling of chinatowns. We have more than a plate full with the so called " democracy" . The last thing I want to see in Yerevan is to be lambasted by garish chinese billboards of their chain of restaurants; serving Peking duck ( although it will be more of a dead cat, than a duck) The chinese also have a foothold in Serbia, they were already there when Nato criminally carpet bombed the Serbs. Some chinese real estate were also hit in Belgrade. China murmured a few tepid protests, that was the sum total of the Chinese reaction. With china it is a numbers game.
DeleteComing to terms with China would be tantamount to catipulation (ie: surrender) and accepting vassalage once again. Historically the relationships between China and its tributary states have been rather unbalanced. Regarding the Philippines, I have a Facebook friend there who gave me permission to use his words here, regarding territorial disputes between China and the Philippines:
Delete"The Chinese claim is allegedly on historic claims... this is why Filipinas decided to change our EEZ into West Philippine Sea... a political move." (It's like the two Koreas refusing to accept the name of 'Sea of Japan' on their maps, preferring to use the term 'East Sea' instead, and even China, curiously enough, uses the term 'East Sea' instead, but would gladly use the names 'East China Sea' and 'South China Sea' for those seas closest to Taiwan and the Philippines.
"....because in maintaining these fantasies, we are opening ourselves to Chinese historic claim (1) over Pampanga, Bulacan, which was the Kingdom of Lusung, where the Southern Sung Dynasty fled when it fell to the Yuan Dynasty, (2) over Sulu and Sabah, where Sultan Batara sent a "diplomatic" mission to the Ming Court when in reality that mission was to pay tribute for the privilege to trade, (3) over Southern Tagalog up to Manila (Kota Seludong/Aman Illah), because Kota Seludong was set up to break the Lusung trade monopoly with China, and (4) over Butuan, which also sent a 'diplomatic' mission to the Yuan Court in the 11th century... this again was to pay tribute to China." (This is a reference to some moronic Filipinos who hype up the pre-Hispanic period in the Philippines where various statelets existed before the Spanish conquest, but they mainly functioned as Chinese vassals)
"The Sultanates of Brunei and Sulu paid tribute to the Ming Court, and among the goods they brought as tribute were Bisaya slaves taken from the slave raids the Ilanuns conducted, and sold to the slave markets of Jolo and Balanguigui." (It is often surprising that slavery was also practiced in this part of SE Asia).
Now do you see why I don't want any appeasement on the part of our countries towards China? A much more logical solution would be to encircle China with hostile, rabidly anti-Chinese and anti-communist regimes with old grudges to settle. For this reason, I believe that it should no longer be considered a resurrection of the Cold War where China is the boogeyman, but a new Cordon Sanitaire that will hopefully damage and cripple Chinese national interests. About those plausible anti-Chinese regimes in SE Asia, it would be preferable that they lean right.
All the negative comments about China are based on paranoia and raw racism; and it's all derived from American propaganda. For example: Everything Jerriko is worried about China doing to the Philippians, the US has already done to it, and much worst. With all due respects to Jerriko, to put it bluntly, Americans have turned the Philippines into a cheep brothel. The Philippines has been exploited by Uncle Sam every way imaginable, yet we have Filipinos fear-mongering about China.
DeleteThe anti-Chinese mindset in south-east Asia is similar to anti-Russian mindsets we see in eastern Europe and the Caucasus. It's all derived from Western/American propaganda and rooted in emotions.
I think we need a more resurgent China in the world, not only to lessen Western/American influences but also to moderate Russian political designs. The more strategic players we have in the world the better it will be for smaller nations.
In any case, I understand anti-Chinese sentiments from nations that are located in China's sphere of influence. China is after all a demographic, cultural and economic behemoth. The Chinese are also arrogant and do have a propensity to exploit peoples. They are very similar to Westerners in that regard. What I don't understand and accept is anti-Chinese sentiments among Armenians. Armenia is in the south Caucasus. The south Caucasus operates under four main influences: Russian, Western, Iranian and Turkish. No one will end this setup. China can only add additional layer/factor to the region's traditional political landscape. And that can prove beneficial to Armenia. But, it's all contingent upon Armenians having the diplomatic skills to derive the potential benefits.
That said, I do agree that China has the potential to become an economic problem for a small and developing nation like Armenia. But the potential benefits that China brings to Armenia - bringing another major nation to the region's geopolitical landscape and turning Armenia into a hub or conduit for Chinese trade - far out-ways the potential problems. After all, legislative measures can be taken to protect oneself from such dangers.
At the end of the day, I rather see Chinese restaurant chains in Armenia than American ones. In other words, I rather see "Peking Duck" than "Big Mac". At the end of the day, it's regional hatred and disputes that imperial officials in the Western world use to exploit nations around the world. It's the local people's political ignorance and bigotry that ultimately allows Western officials a firm foothold in their countries.
It also needs to be pointed out that the anti-Chinese sentiments among Armenians and Filipinos has an unmistakable racial element to it as well. For many nations around the world today, it's way better to get exploited by western/northern Europeans (Whites) than Asians, or any other race. The subconscious thinking is basically this: White/Europeans are a superior people, and they are much better looking as well. It's the racial/cultural conditioning of modern times. It's that simple. One thousand years ago southern Europeans (Latin speakers) and Middle Easterners looked down upon western and northern Europeans as backward barbarians. This changed as western/northern Europeans began conquering the world from the 11th century onward. Now, whether they realize it or not, humanity looks up to them. In a way, it's similar to the Stockholm syndrome.
I am very happy to see a large Chinese embassy being built next to a large American one. It's about time.
Ashot Grigoryan, an Armenian businessman and community leader in Slovakia who has struggled for years against the authorities in Yerevan. He was instrumental in delivering 10 SU25 fighter planes to the Armenian airforce in the early 2000's and has been trying for years to restart the Nairit plant against a wave of opposition from the Armenian oligarchs. Looks like he may have finally succeeded. Here he talks about the steps being taken to start some sections of the plant with backing from a large European investor. He talks about the rape and pillage of that once great institution after Levon and friends closed it down, and how Tigran Sarkisyan was deeply involved with the looting. In a different section he also talks about how when the Slovak arms manufacturer was busy delivering the self propelled howitzers to azerbaijan via israel, the Armenian ambassador in Slovakia was doing absolutely nothing to interfere in the sale because he was busy running his own illegitimate business and possibly was getting bribes from the azeris to keep quiet.
ReplyDeleteՆաիրիտը կլինի 21-րդ դարի նորմատիվներին համապատասխանող, էկոլոգիապես մաքուր քիմիական արտադրություն
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQkj2SgIVvU
Watch this investigative video closely. It's about North Korea but these are the people behind our new government in Armenia.
ReplyDelete"In this Grayzone special, Max Blumenthal attends a Capitol Hill gathering of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and explores the group's destabilizing global campaign to meddle in other countries' affairs. The report covers the NED's interference in foreign elections in Russia and Mongolia, its participation in coup attempts from Haiti to Venezuela to Nicaragua, and its escalating public relations efforts against China and North Korea."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzIJ25ob1aA&feature=youtu.be
Thank you for this post. I have always told people not to believe any of the stuff being said about North Korea. The same naturally applies to what's also being said about other targeted countures such as Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, etc. Everything we hear about such countries are fabrications, lies and half-truths. And all the world's "democratizers" are on Uncle Sam's and/or George Soros' payroll. Uncle Sam and George Soros are indeed the spiritual gurus of the current administration in Armenia. As I have been saying from day one, nothing good will therefore come out of Nikol in the long run. Nikol's government is simply appealing to the sentiments of the ignorant masses through appeasement and fluff rhetoric, as it quietly impliments a number of Globalist/Western agendas in the country. Nikol and his cohorts may be singing all the right songs about Russia but it's only because they don't want suffer another October 27, 1999. Armenia has been rotting internally since 1991. This rot will however spread quicker now that this Western funded regime is in power. Allow me to also add this: Virtually the entire American-Armenian Diaspora has been turned into an extension of the NED and George Soros' Open Society foundation. Armenians, as smart or as well intentioned as they think they are, continue being exploited by imperial officials as if they were backward African/Arabic tribes...
DeleteUnfortunately the diasporan Armenians are inoculated with the democratic , egalitarian, antifascist, antiracist, globalized, jewphile world view of the pseudo humanitarian vaccines. However if you ask anyone of them to expound and give a rational exposition of these "isms" they will babble parrot fashion a few inane ,vacuous, worn out trade mark cliches , the result of mind bending indoctrination. Down to the core, with exceptions, they have no clue what it means for them as individuals and as a collective group. There are rumours that Azeries are engaged in talks for membership into CSTO and EAEU . If an application is submitted Armenia will naturally vetoe it. Azerbaijan as Georgia are jewish infiltrated, Armenia's new band of neo corrupt gangs in government are also very suspect of their philosophical inclinations and political orientation. If you get Harvard, Yale,Oxford, Sorborne indoctrinated professionals sitting in government, one should not expect leaders with strong feelings of love and patriotism for the motherland. They have been brain washed in the indoctrination institutes of higher learning and co opted as clones and virtual operatives for decadent westernization, humanism and democracy.
Deleteterrorist enabler in Syria Scumbag mccain is dead. No end to the praise of this p.o.s. in the mainstream U.S. media
ReplyDeleteBesides that, what do you guys think is going to happen in idlib, the last terrorist stronghold in Syria. Let me attach the latest report from Murad Gazdiev: https://www.rt.com/shows/news/437063-rtnews-august-28-17msk/
By all accounts Idlib will be the last battle for Syria. If Americans and Jews get out of the way the Syrian government will win the final battle. Lets see what Trump will do. Lavrov just warned Americans "not to play with fire.
Deletehttps://www.rt.com/news/437256-lavrov-warning-syria-west/
I am pretty certain that Assad's army and the Russian have taken every possible twist and turns into account before the final push to erase Idlib ( as we know it now) and its filthy rodents off the face of the earth. Massive power will be brought to bear to the point of rubbleizing the breadth and length of Idlib. I don't believe it will be a battle; it will be short ,quick and very brutal. On the other hand there could be a total surrender before it gets too much rubble and blood. If the rodents in Idlib try a false flag; the USA will not do anything. Syria's anti missile and aerial defenses are geared up for such an eventuality and the Americans-israerlies loathe to suffer losses of any kind. The American and Israelis are used to making war from arm chairs and screens. They have no stomach for a gruelling grind of warfare involving boots on the ground . As long as they can fly from the skies and carpet bomb its enemies below, it is fine and well.
DeleteIt's the beginning of the end of the conflict in Syria. If we discount areas under American, Kurdish and Turkish control, Idlib is the last main "rebel" stronghold in the country. Due to Ankara's close relations with Moscow, Turkey is not a major factor in Syria today. Ankara will follow Moscow's lead. This leaves Anglo-American-Saudi-Jews and their Kurdish puppets as the main antagonistic party on the ground in Syria. If these don't cause major problems, Idlib will fall to Syria's Russian and Iranian backed military. Other than a major attack on Syrian forces by the latter, I don't think there is anything else they can do to stop its fall. Russia is doing its best to thwart such an attack -
DeleteRussia Begins Military Drills Near Syria, Where It Says U.S. Strikes Are Coming Soon: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-begins-military-drills-near-syria-where-it-says-us-strikes-coming-soon-1095580
There are some voices in the West that want to admit defeat and look for a negotiated settlement. Perhaps Trump is one of these voices. There are also voices that will not accept defeat in Syria. These will look to prolong the war. These will continue to seek Bashar Assad's ouster. The warmongering Russophobic lunatic John McCain was one of these nonconformists. Thank God he is back home with Satan and his minions. The world became just a bit cleaner and safer after his death. But it was very nauseating watching how the bloodthirsty lunatic was honored. The United States has truly become a society of degenerates.
Here's a rational voice regarding McCain from Ireland -
McCain’s funeral was a disgusting exercise in historical revisionism : https://www.rt.com/op-ed/437454-mccain-funeral-historical-revisionism/
For military enthusiasts and Russophiles here are excellent RT documentaries
ReplyDeleteTor: In Pursuit of the Uncatchables. Russia’s mobile anti-missile vehicles can knock out any barrage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=objljEE7B6M
Code Name Sickle: Exploring Russia’s mobile nuclear missile systems: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m678KG7_u0c
Yasen-M: Destroyer of the Depths. Potent electronic weapons & supersonic missiles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEzgQ26W4hE
Training with Russian Paratroopers on the Black Sea – In The Army Now Ep.23: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbuRznxRrwg
The Baltic Fleet (E06): Marines tackle an obstacle course to build team spirit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQw68vhoRts
Battle for Beret: Joining Russia’s Special Forces (RT Documentary): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBuJcAKKeXw
The Swifts and The Russian Knights.Behind incredible air stunts by MiG-29s & Su-27s: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUcYLxXS6mw
Gurgen talking about how the anti-Russian forces are well funded in Armenia and the danger they pose. Their first attack on Russia was Yuri Khatchaturovs case
ReplyDeleteՈւզում եք ՀԱՊԿ-ը աղբակույտի՞ վերածել. Գուրգեն Եղիազարյան
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5_XJx2dalw&app=desktop
Aram Harutunyan talking about how the transfer of power from Serzh to Nikol was orchestrated by both groups with the involvement of foreign money, the main goal being the removal of the 102nd base.
Նիկոլ Փաշինյանն օգոստոսի 17-ից սկսած՝ ադեկվատ չէ. Գնահատական
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lneEpHTIPA
My hope is that this govt is given enough rope to hang itself. I hope that nikol comes back from Moscow with a bruising and his tail between his legs. I hope that by next elections in June that people wake up and see the toxic shit that this man and his team are. Even if not elected I can see this shit not stepping down as he is already promising to do. What a miserable predicament, as a people we truly are incapable of coming up with a real leader.
Thank you for the links, Arto.
DeleteGurgen is a serious man. He is a very smart man. He also represents Russo-Armenian interests in the country. He is known as "KGB" Gurgen. I always listen closely to what he has to say, as they are indicative. However, I have been quite disappointed in him recently. He was singing Nikol's praise from day one. And now, all of a sudden, he is surprised that anti-Russian forces have taken-over government?! Gurgen is smarter than that. Something must therefore be up. As I have been saying, Armenia has been subjected to an agenda of some sort. And I think all the top players - Serj, Nikol, Levon and Armen - are in on it.
From day one I was saying that the "Velvet Revolution" was basically a prearranged transfer-of-power. Ultimately, I blame Serj for everything, including why Karen Karapetyan was unable to rise to power. It would not surprise me now if Serj has indeed joined anti-Russian forces in Armenia. I still vividly remember how when hostilities began on April 02, 2016, he immediately flew to Germany to publicly spew lies about Russian arms supplies to Azerbaijan. These people are destroying Armenia from the inside-out. And "the people" are simply too stupid to realize any of it.
Never-ever place any kind of hope on the so-called "Armenian Street". The "Armenian Street" is just a reactionary force for destruction. The "Armenian Street" has been and will continue being Armenia's number one enemy. If you don't see this yet, with close observation, self-reflection and age, you eventually will.
PS: Serj and Nikol (and Levon and Armen) both deserve Arshak II's fate.
Arevordi, I too have been perplexed by Gurgen's statements lately. It seems the man has a lot of venom towards Serj's regime and has capitalized on Nikol as a means of ousting Serj and now has begun to turn on nikol. Who really knows what's going on in Armenia, all I know is that Armenia is the only country in the entire region that isn't self governed even a tiny bit and hasn't been since independence. Global forces have destroyed what could have been and are continuing to shape the future because we can't produce a real leader to counterbalance those forces and steer the country towards an advantageous direction. If it wasn't so sad I would find it comical that they're pushing the removal of school uniforms instead of truly fixing the education system, or how the head of the NSS is finally happy to be the new soccer federation president, or they're allowing soldiers on duty to use their cell phones given the high level reconnaissance technology the enemy has obtained from Israel. You couldn't make this shit up if you tried to. I'm not an expert in any of these fields so I could be wrong but things just don't feel right.
DeleteArto, you are right on all accounts. These issues regarding doing away with school uniforms and allowing cellphone use by active duty soldiers - as well as a vendetta driven politics, laxed traffic laws, increased activities by USAID, IMF and Western funded NGOs and an increase in anti-Russian, homosexuality and feminist propaganda in Armenia today - are actually threats to Armenia's internal order and national security.
DeleteThis is what I mean when I say, what the "people" want and what the state needs are two, often very divergent/conflicting things. This is what I mean when I say, Democracy/Westernization/Globalism/Liberalism is toxic for all nation-states, especially for developing ones. This is what I mean when I say, one has to travel to the depths of the African jungle or to the remotest parts of the Arabian desert to find a tribe of people as self-destructive and/or politically illiterate as us Armenians.
Western funded Neo-Marxists/Globalists have used our people's self-destructive behavior and political illiteracy to rise to power. If this regime does not get thoroughly overhauled or simply ousted from power in the near future, it will hurt Armenia more significantly, more deeply than all the Kocharyan/Sargsyan era chobans-in-Armani-suits combined. But, as long as Nikolik keeps telling the "people" that the "people" are in control now, the "people" will remain fateful to the "revolution". Funny (or sad) part is that the average Armenian today is in worst shape than before the change of power. Food prices have sky rocketed in recent months. Energy costs remain the same. Unemployment remains the same. Wages remain the same. And all the dreaded oligarchs continue to roam freely.
Let's see how long can Nikolik keep the show going. Let's see how long it will take our self-destructive peasantry (90%-plus of Armenians today) to wake up to all this, if they wake-up at all. We'll eventually see how much damage Armenians have dealt Armenia in the name of hate, tribalism, jealousy, arrogance, ignorance and Democracy...
After listening to the rhetoric from all sides after the Moscow meeting its becoming clear that the final solution to the Artsakh problem is being finalized. Serj was too unpopular to push the sacrifices into the Armenian people so they brought in this useful idiot. A defining moment is approaching.
DeleteI have been saying a variant of this from day one. Serj washed his hands of the matter by giving Nikol the "honor" of returning territories to Azerbaijan. I think all parties involved - East, West and all those in between - are in cahoots. Besides, anything that the illustrious leader of Armenia today decides, it will be accepted by the country's still-euphoric peasantry. Isn't all of Armenia's problems supposedly linked to the dispute over Artsakh? Isn't the "Karabakh clan" supposedly responsible for all of Armenia's problems? Trust me Arto, the "Armenian Street" is ready for a comprehensive settlement. Speaking of Artsakh, the following Pravda article posted by Karmir Xndzor is quite interesting. The author, presumably an Azeri, is signaling the return of "five regions" to Azerbaijan, instead of their usual demand for "seven regions". Has a secret settlement been reached?
DeletePutin concludes secret military bloc deal with Azerbaijan: http://www.pravdareport.com/world/ussr/07-09-2018/141549-russia_azerbaijan-0/
The "Armenian Street" is already questioning the activities of the new regime. It had become a pattern that when I ask people "what is the number one thing you would like Nikol to resolve?", they say social justice = going after the oligarchs and condemn them in trial, and not say increase of wages and pensions. There is a feel of sadistic personal revenge in this, hence why Armenians cannot tolerate Armenian leaders. Jealousy is playing a big part. Now that some of them are being apprehended then released, they are beginning to doubt. Now that the prices are going up, they are beginning to doubt. Now that there is an increasing attack on the church and family values, they are starting to ask questions. People are also talking about conspiracies about Artsakh.
DeleteHaving said that, people are living in denial. While they are questioning the new regime's acts, they are also trying to turn the other way hoping that they are wrong in thinking bad.
Another observation: the main institutions holding the country (the army, nss, and police) are still under the control of people who were from the previous regime. Either this is a cohabitation agreement or someone else is in charge of important affairs, not Nikol or Serzh.
Artsakh authorities are not the biggest fans of the current regime, but they are silent for now, in order not to sow further disunity.
My final verdict? The current regime is the continuation of the old one, only worst. The same complimentary politics is being played, and the NGOs have gotten more vocal and aggressive, albeit they are a minority. Nevertheless, it will be our resiliency which will make us come out victorious in the end. The other good thing is this revolution made the "natiobalist camp" become proactive, new media outlets are popping up. Not all is lost, not all will be lost.
We are destined to survive, not to thrive, unfortunately. But nevertheless I believe that people will wake up sooner than later. The "Armenian Street" is not patient.
The previous regime was old world corruption. This regime is simply put, incompetent in all sectors of government and staffed by Western-funded Neo-Bolsheviks. If left unchecked, this regime will prove more poisonous to the country's long-term health and well-being than all the previous regimes' criminals combined. This regime is Levon Petrosyan's second coming. Trust me, with the kind of "people" we have, we won't be thriving anytime in the foreseeable future, if ever. And if we are surviving, it's simply because of our ties to Russia. Can you imagine an Armenia today without Russia? No, you can't. Sorry if I burst anyone's nationalistic bubble here.
DeleteIn a nutshell: An "independent" Armenia in the south Caucasus will be like a ball in a geopolitical pin-ball machine. In which case, Armenia will remain economically impoverished, politically unstable and always endangered. If it's going to be like this, I'd be happier if Armenia was incorporated fully into the Russian Federation. After all, the only thing keeping Turks/Azeris out of Armenia today is the 102nd base. Does anyone today seriously think without Russian boots on the ground in Armenia (and without Russian support for our military and economy) we as a people would be able to keep a country longer than a week or a month? So, in a real sense, we are already part of the Russian Federation - however without the stability (and potential prosperity) that comes with officially being in the Russian Federation. So, why not take that next step and put an end to this nightmare and misery?
Is having two state flags and two official languages, and being an integral part of the largest and wealthiest entity in the world, really that bad if it brings us the safety, the stability and the prosperity that we as a people desperately need today? Had we joined the EU, it would have been worst: Two flags, multiple languages, distant center of power, liberal ideology, open borders, etc. Personally, I am at a point in my life where I don't think that we as a people deserve much better than what Abkhazians, Tatars, Cossacks, Ossetians or Chechens have today...
I know you like to repeat that phrase every single time Armenians screw up, but I don't believe joining the Russian Federation will not put an end to your worries. They will only make them worst.
DeleteIt's not as simple as switching a button and everything is fixed. Just think about the possible consequences:
1) Armenians will never get the chance to mature to be able to learn what self-governance is, even nominally.
2) Joining Russia will open a new page of anti-Russia sentiment amongst Armenians, possibly even worst than anti-Turkish sentiment.
3) the West will utilize Armenians' new anti-Russia sentiment against Russia, and will ensure to keep the South Caucasus more than ever.
4) Armenians may join forces with Turks and forget about Hye Dat and Western Armenia, against Russia.
5) finally, I don't believe Russia would want to annex Armenia just like that, for many reasons. It only would if it could annex all 3 South Caucasian countries.
Dear friend, you know more than any of us that Armenians are a problematic bunch. But just handing ourselves over to another power is not the solution, especially to Russia. Since you know how Armenians are, they will spill blood against Russia more so than they have against Turkey. No good will come out of it.
Finally, as much as we are allies with Russia, Russia would still rather keep a balance between us and Azerbaijan.
Instead of worrying about how to hand over the keys to Moscow, we should focus on making sure not to screw up.
I understand, you have seen the worst of Armenians. So have many of us, but maybe not as much as you. I get that, it hurts when your own people act self-destructive. But giving up is not the solution.
If after all this you still think we deserve the fates of Abkhazians and the rest, then we are all wasting our times worrying about Armenia's future.
Yes, what I'm seeing in Yerevan is disheartening. But I'd rather deal with my family members' problems rather than asking my rich neighbor to take posession of them.
I like to repeat that phrase often, simply to get the kind of reaction I got out of you. Think of it as reverse psychology to get people thinking and self-reflecting. But, it also is more than that. Under certain circumstances, joining Moscow's club is and will always be an option for us; like it was in 1813, like it was in 1921. Saying this does not mean we should not try at independence while we have it. Needless to say, we do need a degree of independence if we want to develop as a distinct nation-state. [I say "degree of independence" because Armenia will not and cannot be totally independent.] However, here is the million dollar question: How does a nation develop properly and safely when it has so many serious problems and is surrounded by large predators? That is essentially why I periodically remind people of the Russian option. The Russian option should and will always remain a viable option for us. Yes, let's go ahead and try our luck at independence in a nasty geographical zone for as long as we can. But when we get to a point where we are either self-destructing and/or our agressive neighbors are too powerful to resist, let's recognize that we have the Russian option. We have been in this situation for the past 2500-plus years. Friendly reminder: Armenia is located in the south Caucasus. Armenia's neighbors are Turks, Azeris, Kurds, Iranians, Georgians and various regional Islamic fanatics.
Delete"Yes, let's go ahead and try our luck at independence in a nasty geographical zone for as long as we can."
DeleteI see enker, congratulations in getting the kind of reaction you wanted. How else would you expect an Armenian to react?
I'm not going to argue with you, just know that the Russian option is not the best solution, it comes with a lot of problems (civilizational, geopolitical and socio-cultural, you can revert back to my points above). And I am saying this knowing full well where we are located and who our neighbors are. I suggest you also look at Russia's neighbors, Turkey's neighbors, Iran's neighbors and Georgia's neughbors as well.
No need to hand over Keys to anyone just yet. Simply put an end the western funded NGOs, monitor their embassies and put strict limits on their movements. Collect people like LTP and his ilk and bury them for good. Our biggest enemies dont surround us, they're sitting at the same dining table as us.
DeleteRazmik,
DeleteI agree with Arto. If we can do all that, no need to hand the house keys to anyone. But if we can't, and as a result we are facing an existential threat, I suggest you don't even hesitate to give the house keys to Ivan. I realize that this is a very unpleasant topic for patriots to discuss, let alone seriously contemplate, but our ancestors have been having this conversation for 2500-plus years.
Nationalism is not a panacea. Many of our worst policies - distancing ourselves from Persia and later on not entering into communion with Byzantines (both of which proved devastating for Armenia) - were very "nationalistic" policies. So was trying to defeat the Russian Czar; so was trying to defeat the Soviet Union. And so is trying to make Armenian "independent" of Russia today. These have all proved to be destructive "nationalistic" policies, yet we keep repeating the same mistakes over and over again.
My approach to all this is not merely based on my personal experiences. They are instead based on a lifetime of observation, analysis, contemplation and personal experiences.
I used to be like you once. In 1990, I remember camping in front of the Soviet consulate in NYC protesting Moscow's policies vis-a-vis Artsakh and demanding independence for Armenia. For most of my life I thought that we Armenians were truly a superior people. For most of my life I thought that if we only united we could do anything under the sun. I went through a radical internal change ten years ago when I saw thousands of my compatriots hatefully ransacking Yerevan on March 01, 2008; all in the name of a foreign backed traitor who had already once raped and pillaged Armenia in the 1990s and one who was openly expressing his willingness to return Artsakh to the Azeris.
I remember thinking to myself, the country is so much better off today (2008) than it was when Levon was in power, how could this happen??? Trying to answer that question was how the term "self-destructive peasantry" was born in my mind. I have very little confidence today in the collective abilities or the wisdom of the Armenian people.
Regarding the Russian Federation option for Armenia: I say it mostly to get a reaction out of people and get them thinking. But I don't only use it as a provocative statement. Think of it this way: It's like telling a very troubled child that if he does not behave and take his responsibility at home seriously, he will be sent to a boarding-school. Boarding-school is where the troubled child will be educated, disciplined, fed and kept safe. However, boarding-school is no place for a child to develop naturally... unless the child's home environment is so dysfunctional that the boarding-school is actually a better option. Our two boarding-schools for the past two hundred years were not as bad as you and I were taught growing up. The Czarist and Soviet eras of Armenia saw the country came out of its several hundred years old dark age. The modern state of Armenia is mostly a Czarist and Soviet project. We would most probably not have had an Armenia today had Ivan not come down to the south Caucasus some two hundred-plus years ago. Without Ivan in the scene, it's hard to imagine Armenia/Armenians anything more than Kurds or Yezdis.
Being fully incorporated into the Russian Federation is and will remain a viable option for the ever problem child that is the Armenian. In the meanwhile, however, let's do our best to see what we can do with our independence while we still have it...
Arevordi and Arto,
DeleteNation-building for Armenians is a hard task. It will not happen in a day. It is expected that we mess up in foreign policy. Having said that, should we join another nation, we will never grow as a nation-state. Sure, our borders will be secure, we will profit from a stabler economy, but eventually we will become too complacent and comfortable, that will in its turn alter our mentality for good. We will never dream about becoming a nation-state again. Thus, we will become exactly what you want, like the Abkhazians, Ossetians and Chechens.
Had we been more like them as you claim, we wouldn't have had so many kingdoms in the past.
Persia:
The records we have of our lives under Achaemenid Persia are those of rebellions and taxations by the empire. We do not know much about the Yervanduni period. We know that no major events took place, but we also know that Armenia was mostly agrarian and not urban, unlike Persia proper.
Rome vs. Parthia/Sassanid:
Our leaders were allured by Hellenistic and Roman lifestyle, even our Parthian-descended Arshakuni rulers, because of which we suffered a lot. If you look carefully, the first 3 centuries AD it was mostly an Armeno-Parthian alliance against Persia, only when the Sassanians came to power they attempted to eradicate the Arshakunis from Armenia.
After we handed our kingdom to the Persians, we again messed up in our foreign policy. I'm not convinced 100% by the Mamikonian and Syuni camps' arguments, I even doubt that what we had was more of a civil war than a war for religious freedom. Something is missing.
Byzantine Armenia:
Armenians who converted to Greek Orthodoxy got assimilated. Had we entered into communion I'm not 100% convinced Byzantium would have left us in peace. Starting from the 10th century Greek nationalism took root in Byzantium and the Greeks started persecuting the other Orthodox nations within the empire, including the Armenians. There may have been less wars but Byzantium was already destroying itself from within. We have talked about this.
As for Russia: under Tsarist rule Armenian civilization flourished. Schools and churches reopened, art and culture was bearing fruit once more. In Soviet Armenia, the same thing happened only after Stalin's death, before that Armenia experienced a few harsh decades, and we lost many intellectuals. There were also Tatar villages that were being connected from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan, via Artsakh and Syunik. In both Tsarist and Soviet Russia's cases, they both came and took over on their own. For the former, Armenian patriots from Syunik and Karabakh lobbied for support, which was greatly delayed, to the point where Eastern Armenians were on their own for 12+ years against the Ottomans and Tatars. For the latter, it was obvious that it was the lesser of evils that the Armenians had to choose in 1921.
Throughout the last 600-700 years, we were not the masters of our destiny, we did not choose to be independent in 1918 and 1991, we did not choose to live under this or that empire, they happened by events out of our control.
The only reason I am giving all these examples is to illustrate the point that we can only worry about things that are within our control. Joining or not joining the RF is not something we can choose. That was the case with us in the last 2500 years...
Razmik, I applaud your enthusiasm and positivity, and I respect your patriotism. However, recognize that Armenian style nationalism (emotional, maximalistic, arrogant, rigid) has devastated Armenia for two thousand years.
DeleteArmenians constantly rebelled against Persia because Armenians are by nature restless, reactionary and rebellious. Armenians are protestants by nature. Instead ask yourself, what happened to Armenia after it was set free from Persian "taxes"? We are still suffering from its consequences. In case you haven't noticed, we rebelled even more against Armenian rule. Armenians are by nature reactionary and rebellious. And the so-called "Armenian Street" (the peasantry) is a reactionary force for destruction. Moreover, if Russians, Serbs, Georgians, Bulgarians, etc, could join the Byzantines without assimilating, so could we. Our Orthodox compatriots "assimilated" in Byzantine lands because they were looked-down upon and ostracized in Armenian lands, essentially by our nationalists (led by our national clergy). What did that get us, communion with the Assyrian/Ethiopian Churches? LOL
Finally, no one is talking about casually "choosing" to join the Russian Federation. It's not like I just woke up someday and I felt like becoming a Russian citizen. We are talking about entering the Russian Federation IF we Armenians we are unable to protect our country from the region's serious dangers. You say it's ok to "mess up" in the pursuit of national growth. Yes, that's a good attitude... but it's not for Armenia, and not for a place like the south Caucasus. We made such a mistake in 1045. We made such a mistake in 1915. And we suffered severely from it. Armenia is too small and the south Caucasus is too violent to allow serious political mistakes.
Ultimately, what I am saying is that I rather Armenia enter the Russian Federation than lose it again. So, please don't take my comments out of context. Besides, I have no doubt that if the shit ever hit the fan again and Armenia's nationalists lay dead on the battlefield or fled to Los, you would be among the first to say - "give the house keys to Ivan"! Let's therefore understand that our discussion is purely theoretical. I don't see any scenarios (at least in the foreseeable future) that would force Armenia to join the Russian Federation. Because of Armenia's ties to Russia, Turkey/Azerbaijan will never try to set foot in Armenia. Besides, bringing Armenia into the Russian Federation is not even something the Kremlin would want. From a Russian perspective, it's much easier to control friendly nations on their periphery, without the headache of taking full responsibility for them. In any case, Armenian style nationalism has never helped us in the long run. We as a people need to better assess our flaws, our abilities a, our needs. We need to better understand our history. We need to learn political wisdom. We need to be less emotional and less arrogant. We need to be more pragmatic. We need to have foresight. We also need to learn a few things from Jews. We admire Jews for their political abilities, yet, when it come to politics, we more closely resemble Kurds and Arabs.
PS: Compered to the peoples of the Caucasus (Abkhazians, Ossetians, Chechens, etc), Armenians are more intelligent, more resourceful, more resilient, more creative, more ambitious and more restless. These Armenian traits are the reasons why we Armenians were able to establish kingdoms at various points in our long history. That said, putting aside Tigran II's short lived empire (35 somewhat years), every single kingdom we have had in the past 2500-plus years was a vessel of larger powers of the time. In other words, we were able to establish "degrees of self-rule" because we were able to "recognize real power and exploit it". When that power in question however declined, so did Armenia. You need to put things in better perspective. You need to better assess our history.
Relevant to this discussion
ReplyDeleteBill banning same-sex kissing in public to be brought to Armenia NA : http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/259769/
Putin concludes secret military bloc deal with Azerbaijan: http://www.pravdareport.com/world/ussr/07-09-2018/141549-russia_azerbaijan-0/
I attended the International Army Games and saw Russia's decadent and depraved military strategy first-hand: https://www.businessinsider.com/what-attending-the-international-army-games-taught-me-about-russia-2018-8?r=UK&IR=T
_______
Shits gonna hit the fan folks
"Everything you need to know about the looming battle for Idlib"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/looming-battle-idlib-180908142026400.html
"‘Lake of Blood’: Russia prepares to annihilate last Syrian rebel-held city"
https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/lake-of-blood-russia-prepares-to-annihilate-last-syrian-rebelheld-city/news-story/a211870141dd24c858b2c4228067e15c
"Russia has staged large-scale military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea near Syria, involving both its Navy and Air Force. The drills were held amid ongoing escalation around Idlib, and US threats to strike Syria."
https://www.rt.com/news/437976-russian-military-drills-mediterranean/
"The US military is sending more than 100 Marines to Syria as reinforcements to protect an illegal American base there for training anti-Damascus terrorists after repeated Russian warnings of an impending attack on the militants in the area south of the terror-ravaged country, the Pentagon said."
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/09/09/573602/US-military-Syria-base-atTanf-garrison-Russia-warning-Syrian-forces-Daesh-militants
"More than 100 US marines flew to southeast Syria for a snap live-fire exercise, sending a “strong message” to Russia not to conduct operations near the US base, two Pentagon officials told Fox News."
https://www.rt.com/news/437993-us-marines-syria-drill/
This is the Anglo-American-Jewish-Wahhabi alliance's last stand in Syria. They failed to exterminate Syria's Christians and Alawites. They failed to oust Bashar Assad. They failed to hold teritory. They failed to push Russia and Iran out of Syria. They failed to drive a wedge between Russia and Iran. Now, thanks to Mother Russia, Syria is poised to win this Anglo-American-Jewish-Wahhabi financed war for once and for all. There is now only one major hurdle to overcome. I am sure it will eventually get done. God bless the Russian nation; they are the last hope for western civilization, the white race and Christianity, and the last front against Anglo-American expansionism, Zionism, Islamic extremism and pan-Turkism.
DeleteKhamenei Tells Putin Iran and Russia Should 'Restrain' The U.S.:
https://en.radiofarda.com/a/putin-meets-iran-supreme-leader-after-summit-on-syria--fars-news/29477718.html
Putin Defies Trump’s Demands to Expel Iran From Syria:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/putin-defies-trump-on-syria-at-summit-of-the-sanctioned-in-iran
Hezbollah’s Nasrallah threatens Israel: ‘The day of the great war is coming’:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-hezbollah-wont-leave-syria-even-if-whole-world-tries-to-force-it/
It shouldn’t take genius to figure out, that if Azerbaijan got what it wanted out of the karabakh conflict, it would turn it’s back on Russia faster than you could blink. Azerbaijan pursues a policy of tolerance of Russia, because it fully understand if it pursues a course of policy similar to that of Georgia, it would loose all hope of regaining anything, and that despite having the unconditional backing of Turkey. The Russians are not so naive as to think they can bring the Azeris into their orbit by offering them certain regions; they know full well thereafter the Azeris would turn their back, and not only that, but Turkish/NATO bases would be set up in Azerbaijan as a deterrence against “Russian aggression.”
ReplyDeleteThe Iranian Factor—
The Turks over run Armenia, connecting with not only Azerbaijan but with the Turkic speaking peoples across the Caspian in Central Asia. What does it all mean? For one, Russia is thrown out of the South Caucasus. The Turks and Islamic peoples of the North Caucasus will also in most likelihood not tolerate a Georgian state, and will tear it to bits and pieces as well. Nevertheless, a diminished Russia (in land and power/influence) can still exist in the North. But what about Iran? Tens of millions of Turks occupy northern Iran. With Armenia gone (and with Armenia, Georgia won’t be long off before it’s gone too), you can bet northern Iran will be the next target.
There are huge factors at play that your tiny minds can’t seem to wrap around their heads. Russia and the big powers don’t need to willy, nilly and pussssy foot around to force tiny, landlocked, blockaded Armenia with very limited options into giving up territories. And at that point, cornered to a wall, Armenians will fight for their survival—while you’re sitting behind a monitor keyboarding away.
Such a turkey would be a tremendous threat to Europe itself.
The key point is this: Even if Armenians willing handed karabakh and seven 7 regions on a silver platter, the Russians, Iranians especially, and Europe even, will not let them.
Moreover, it is more than obvious that without Karabakh, Armenia in the boundaries of the former SSR cannot sustain as an independent state.
It wouldn't take a genius to understand that we the sheeple don't know what's really being planned/discussed by leaders behind closed doors. Then again, you're obviously an idiot who thinks he knows what's going on behind closed doors. Advice: Put aside your computer war games, stop watching the History Channel and recognize that politics is a very murky and unpredictable affair. Azeris are more secular and more Russia-leaning than we Armenians give them credit for. Their problem with Russia has been mainly over Moscow's tacit support for Armenia and Artsakh. As long as a viable Russia exists on its border, Baku will never favor Turkey over Russia. Moreover, the issue at hand are the five regions outside of Artsakh proper, not seven. Armenia and Artsakh do not face any serious threats today. Russians can be a lot of things, but naive they are not. Needless to say, they are also not weak. In fact, Russians are not weak even when they are on their knees. The Kremlin's two main goals is to force Yerevan and Baku to accept land concessions and station Russian troops (aka peacekeepers) between Artsakh and Azerbaijan. If the Kremlin manages to reach these goals, then Yerevan and Baku (and by extension Tbilisi) will be fully locked into Russia's orbit. That is where we are today. How it will all play out is all together another story. Regarding Turkey: Russia (and Iran) will NEVER allow them to over run anything, let alone something as strategic as Armenia. A Turkish invasion of Armenia is therefore a non-issue, that is as long as Russia remains powerful force in the region. Anyway, like I said, stop playing war games and stop watching the History Channel.
DeleteIt is all in realm of possibilities, and anything is accounted for, treason, sell out, bondage, vassalage; but one inescapable fact is that today Artsakh will not be negotiated, since negotiations on Artsakh means negotiations on Armenia's future pointing to regression a loss of nationhood. Armenia does not have the luxury of territorial expanses to abdicate and relinquish to others, particularly when these lands are rightfully Armenian. There will never (one uses the term never in the temporal space and time of the foreseeable; one can not foretell the future.) an agreement, or "peace" accord with them on the fate of Artsakh and territories. The israeli -palestinian conflict is unsolvable short of one of the players making itself scarce from the scene. The Armeno-Turkish conflict is pretty much the same - Azerbaijan is Turkey. In 1914-15 in the turkish parliament - a turk delivered a speech- in which he attacked the famous Armenian parliamentarian whose name escapes me, by stating that the two people can not coexist in the Empire, and one of them has to go. The status quo is unsatisfactory to both parties but it serves Russian interest to the glove. Armenian forces , with covert Russian support ,can competently defend the frontiers and check Turkish( Azeri) aggression. There is no need to station Russian peacekeeping forces between the two parties. The Southern Caucasus is today under Russian control,unlike in the USSR days but nevertheless under their control. Georgia could be the nigger in the woodpile, and Azeries a distant apart, but the 102nd army base in Gyumry is there for the specific reason and objective to lock the Southern caucasus under Russian lock and key. It is salutary when Alyev attacks Pashinian for his remarks on Artsakh. All sorts of permutations are floating into the ether about what may or may not happen. Russian government is not foolhardy ( although there are many anti armenian amongst them) to realize that taking land from Armenians and granting it to Azeries in the prospect of an illusory and fake "peace accord" will bring them any endurable and long lasting gains. Where is Iran in this supposedly trade off of "land for peace". Geopolitically Iranians don't view with favor Russian troops stationed closer to their border, and neither does Iran favor Azerbaijan aggrandizement on their borders. Politics in Armenia must and need be simple. With Russia Armenia lives, without Russia Armenia's survival is uncertain at best and too ghastly to contemplate at worst.
Deletehi Arevordi,
ReplyDelete1) is the south Caucasus considered part of the middle east?
2) What do you make of the wiretapping of the special services conversation? part of me says that's criminally negligent, necessary precautions were not taken. How easy would it be for turks/azeris to listen in? but I don't think they're that dumb. Something tells me it's a show, although orchestrated from within, not outside, for whatever reason--likely related to Artsakh. I like the way Thomas de waal puts it, "the tail that wags the dog." Ur thoughts?
much thanks!
‘Prime Minister says to arrest him’: Secretly recorded phone call between heads of NSS and SIS about Khachaturov: https://www.aravot-en.am/2018/09/11/218530/
DeleteGuys its too late Armenian is officially a banana republic. Imagine the head of the CIA or FSB getting recorded like this.
Anonymous,
DeleteIt's difficult to place Armenia in any particular geographic category. Some say Armenia is part of Europe (in my opinion it is not), some say Armenia is part of the Middle East (in my opinion it is not), some say it is part of western Asia (which in my opinion is). In any case, such classifications, which are political by nature, are not important. Simply put: Armenia is a crossroads, or a hub, of European, Middle Eastern and Asian cultures and genetic types. Again, sorry is I burst anyone's nationalistic bubble.
The recorded phone conversation between the head of NSS and SIS is deeply embarrassing, very disappointing and quite concerning. Yes, the country does resemble a weak, incompetent and unstable banana republic. Yes, this is criminal negligence. This is actually a matter of national security. This means there probably are no "state secrets" in Armenia that Turks/Azeris do not know about. Think for a moment: The "heads" of the country are being spied on and their conversation is being released to the public. This is a sign of weakness, incompetence and internal political instability. Think for a moment: The head of the NSS has a football fetish and the brother of the head of SIS is a George Soros agent. The discussion the two are having in the recording is worrying. They are essentially discussing illegal, extra-judicial arrests. Isn't that corruption? It's that political persecution? For his credit, the head of the NSS is at least worried about Russia's reaction. All in all, however, this recording shows just how weak, corrupt, unprofessional and incompetent our state officials are. This also reveals there are now serious internal problems. I image it was not much better before. It's just that now the internal divisions are deepening and the proverbial shit is rising to the surface for all to see.
In any case, politics in Armenia is slowly becoming unhinged. Yesterday's political stability is now history. Today, no one fears the authorities anymore. Today, there is serious infighting. This is a very dangerous thing for an emotional, vindictive, jealous, arrogant, restless and politically illiterate people like us Armenians. What we are seeing take place in Armenia in recent months is purely a vendetta/hate/tribal/jealousy driven politics. I'm afraid we are going to see more embarrassing things like this in the coming months/years, as the country sinks deeper and deeper into political decay. If this is really what the "Armenian Street" wants, then Armenia is doomed. Azeris may be the happiest observers in all this. At this point, everything in Armenia is a "show". As I have been saying from day one, Armenia has fallen a victim of a supranational/multinational conspiracy. Armenia has been put on the route instability. The country is deliberately being steered towards political unrest. I don't know the end game of all this, although I have my suspicions. Let's see what else the show has in store for us.
Friendly reminder: Nikolik is a street level scoundrel and his cabinet is stocked full of anti-national, anti-traditional, anti-church and Russophobic neo-Bolsheviks and Globalists. As I have been saying from day one, nothing good will come out of the "Velvet Revolution" in the long term. Nothing good will come out of the "Armenian Street".
Thanks Arevordi. That was my understanding of it as well. The "middle east" is a largely geo-political term comprising of Arab and Islamic countries. That's perhaps why Egypt, geographically part of the African continent, is classified as being in the middle east by most credible sources. The south Caucasus, Georgia and Armenia in particular, do not fit into any definition of the middle east, neither culturally, linguistically, genetically, nor politically. Depending on the source, Cyprus is included and excluded from the middle east as well. But as regards Armenia and the south caucasus, I have not found any credible source classifying it as middle east.
DeleteWell, since you put it that way, everything can bee seen largely a geopolitical term. After the Soviet collapse, there was some talk as to what geopolitical zone Armenia belonged to. Some were saying Middle East. Some were saying Europe. Some were saying Asia. Today, Armenia is mostly seen as an Asian or European country. In any case, this is a nonsensical topic. Borders, geopolitical zones, centers of civilization, centers of power, etc., have always been fluid. In the distant past, the Middle East (aka Neareast or Levant) were not seen as Islamic or even Arabic territories. In the past, most of Armenia was much further south and west than where it is today. Moreover, the term "south Caucasus" is laregly a modern term. For much of its history Armenia is a west Asian (aka Asia Minor) country. There is no shame in that. There is no shame in being Asian. The shame lies in the way we as a people have always mishandled/abused our national sovereignty. Finally, Armenians today are genetically and culturally much closer to the peoples of Asia Minor, Mesapotamia and the Levant than any other region. If you are seeing some similarities with the peoples of the north Caucasus or Europe, it's largely due to the Russian/Soviet period in Armenian history.
DeleteThanks Arevordi, very interesting stuff. sorry to go off topic, but I've been thinking of the topic and just wanted to know where the country is located. I guess there's no true consensus. I'm not against west Asia, just wanted to know the right answer. But Mt. Elbrus, located just off the Georgian border in Russian N. Caucasus, is indisputably considered the highest mountain in Europe. It's right next door to the South Caucasus. So I was just trying to figure out where all these dividing lines come from, how they're drawn, who decides it, and you've always got intriguing insight to offer. Thanks!
DeleteWhat are your thoughts on the view that, the wiretap recordings were intentionally released to show Moscow that what's going on inside Armenia is not a geo-politically driven agenda against Moscow, that Moscow was in fact taken into consideration, but that nevertheless this had to be done because laws were broken?
You are now reaching for the bottom of the barrel to explain/justify our officials' corruption, incompetence and weakness. Your pride/nationalism does not want you to think of your nation as weak or incompetent. That's good, but that's not facing reality. No, this wiretap was not intentionally released to show Moscow anything; well, anything good that is. If anything, Moscow intentionally released this wiretap to show our self-destructive sheeple the depth of the new regime's unprofessionalism, weakness and corruption. Again, think about it: The director of the NSS (essentially the head of the country's wiretapping department) was himself wiretapped discussing extra-judicial/illegal arrests with the head of the SIS, who happens to be the brother of a George Soros operative in the country. The NSS director's fear of Russia's reaction won't impress or surprise the Kremlin one bit because Armenia's NSS is in-effect a subordinate of Russia's FSB/GRU. Again, sorry if burst anyone's nationalistic bubble here. I reiterate: Armenia lives because Russia wants it to live. I reiterate: Armenia won't survive a day in the south Caucasus without Russian assistance. I therefore suggest further deepening our ties with our life giver. I see the opposite taking place. This is why I say stop admiring Jews and start leaning from them. Advice: If you allow yourself to come to the realization that when it comes to politics, warfare and/or nation-building, we Armenians are not much better than Kurds or Arab, all of Armenia's failures in the past and today will make much better sense to you. It's pride, arrogance, political illiteracy and a misunderstanding of history that usually gets in the way of better understanding/assessing our nation's abilities and disabilities more realistically....
DeleteLargest Russian war games in decades. 300,000 troops. Thousands of military hardware. China is participating. The message is unmistakably loud. Russia cannot be defeated. China is breaking its dependence on Washington. The Anglo-American-Jewish era is in decline. There is hope in the world.
ReplyDeleteLIVE: Putin attends Vostok-2018 military exercises: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLQNPgQqy88
I'm not exactly sure how would Bible prophecies would fit into this kind of thing, seeing as once again the two Eurasian powers are once again labeled as "Gog and Magog". Unlike the US war games that it held, I'm sure that Vostok 2018 would be where Russian and Chinese armies would take the exercise seriously and find out where they made their mistakes. It also reminded me of this video here:
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9b1DG86a4k
Keep in mind that the commander representing the Red forces against the US blue forces here was a retired Marine Corps general who actually didn't go against the script written by the people who organized Millenium Challenge 2002 and simply called them out for the rigging.
Gog/Mgog talk is on the lips of "Christian-Zionists" and others everywhere these days, and it includes talk about Iran and Turkey -
DeleteGog Arising?:
https://www.jewishvoice.org/read/article/gog-arising
Turkey Moving Closer to Gog-Magog Alliance?: http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/israel/2018/february/turkey-moving-closer-to-gog-magog-alliance
Why the Russia-Turkey-Iran Alliance Could Be More Disturbing Than You Think:
https://www.christianheadlines.com/columnists/laura-lacey-johnson/why-the-russia-turkey-iran-alliance-could-be-more-disturbing-than-you-think.html
Putin=Gog, Crimea=Magog, the apocalypse is here and the Messiah is coming:
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/west-of-eden/.premium-1.582663
Is Vladimir Putin the Prophesied ‘Prince of Rosh’?
http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11228.30958.161.0/asia/russia/is-vladimir-putin-the-prophesied-prince-of-rosh?preview
Anyway, let's put aside this Hebrew legend/prophesy and get back to discernible reality.
I remember that now famous war game where the Marine general severely beat US forces. I am sure it gave Iranians some fighting advice as well; I am also sure it made Uncle Sam back off from Iran. That Marine was an old school officer. He was the by-product of an America that no longer exists. Uncle Sam will not find adequate replacements for such men within the current generation growing up in the United States. In any case, the war game in question revealed what many already suspected at the time - namely that Western forces are not as capable as portrayed by Western governments.
In the not too distant past, Western troops (German, French, British, American, Swedish, etc) were formidable. They in fact, conquered much of the world through iron and blood. Today, Western forces are paper tigers. The only people today that have been able to preserve their martial/fighting/warrior spirit are Slavs (Russians, Ukrainians, Poles, etc) and some Balkan peoples (i.e. Albanians, Serbs and Croatians). In any case, take away the technological advantage of Western forces, Western troops are completely worthless. With the development of new military technology we are seeing in recent years (primarily in the realm of electronic warfare), advanced militaries (like that of Russia's) can neutralize the technological advantage of Western forces on the battle field. Man to man, the modern Westerner is no match for today's Easterner. Once you shed Western forces of their technological advantage, finishing them off would be as easy as shooting feral hogs on an open field. The Anglo-American-Jewish alliance's Battle of the Teutoburg Forest is yet to come.
I'm not sure if Russia's military or for that matter, China's military, has any EMP-based weaponry, because that might be the major weakness of most Western military forces. Recall the part in the MC2002 where the US military had to resort to rigging in order to give themselves a "victory", causing van Riper (the retired general who commanded the Red forces) to call them out on such blatant cheating. MC2002 was also supposed to test new technology and equipment that the US military will use in the future, so the military-industrial complex has a big stake on this exercise.
DeleteDuring the Vietnam War, in contrast to the US military which performed rather decently, the South Korean military employed different tactics in fighting the Viet Cong, including Human Intelligence. The South Koreans were far more effective in fighting the Viet Cong than the US military were. The US relies too much on technology for its war capabilities that should the US and its NATO allies go to war against Russia, the Russians could just cripple their tech, and take advantage of their vulnerability.
Additional comments from above:
DeleteSomething unique has been emerging from within the Russian military, as reported by South Front's video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhcierEEjm4&t=4s
Lessons from the Syrian conflict, which has been taken to heart by the Russian and to a lesser extent, the Syrian military, the usage of pick up trucks for guerrilla warfare has been extremely effective, though it is only effective in flat, open terrain (ie: deserts and steppes). What is interesting is that any kind of pick up truck could be mounted with various weapons like machine guns, automatic grenade launchers, mortars, rocket launchers or even anti-tank missiles, plus it can carry up to five guerrilla fighters. I don't exactly know how the US military has ignored this kind of detail, as the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Guards Army might be used to quell any other smoldering conflicts elsewhere, like Iraq, Central Asia, and Afghanistan. I honestly think that the 'Technicals', as these pick up trucks are called, would have been effective in mountainous terrain of the Caucasus region. Thus in essence, I don't see the Armenians or Azeris making a similar unit to the 30th SMR Brigade. The Turks might though, as Anatolia is also fertile ground for this kind of warfare.
I might also make a prediction that the 30th SMR Brigade can also be used in the event that NATO forces would invade Russia. How much casualties that NATO can sustain in the event of such a conflict is unknown, but if the Russians would use EMP based weaponry, as I have mentioned above, then the invasion of Russia would be a disaster without the need for General Winter. Thus Russia doesn't need to keep up with the US in terms of technological edge, but rather, how to turn their own strengths (US military's strengths, that is), into their own weaknesses. The Israeli military on the other hand, may have tricks up their own sleeves, but given that their performance against Hezbollah in 2006 was questionable at best, I don't know how Israel will perform against the Syrian Arab Army, or even for that matter, the Iranian Army. Never mind Iraq's army or even the Turkish Army, I get the feeling that the Israeli military's performance is not well known since the Israelis are always calling on the US to do the heavy fighting.
In other news:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/15/russian-orthodox-church-cuts-ties-constantinople-patriarch-bitter/
If I didn't know any better, the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople has been reduced to nothing more than a puppet of the West. Although (reluctantly) the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople has the religious authority to grant the status of an Autocephalous Church to any Orthodox Church, it is predictable as to why the two Patriarchs of Moscow and Constantinople have become at odds with each other. Moreover, Ukraine's Orthodox Christian movement is hopelessly split between the UOAC, UOC-Kyiv Patriarchate and the UOC-Moscow Patriarchate.
Turkey's spoke in the wheel. We hear a lot about the assault to liberate Idlib. Contradictory statements, claims and counter claims are being aired. " Lavrov's statements is weird in the sense that the " allies " do not seek to recover Idlib but to delouse it from terrorists; or something to that effect ( possibly lost in translation). Reports that Turkey has stalled the assault for a few more weeks signals the intention of Turkey staying put in Idlib. In 2015 Putin warned Erdogan not to inveigle himself in Syrya, Erdowan would be facing a " stalingrad" if he did not heed the warnings. The turkish army is pouring commandos and armory in their comm.s points. The assault on Idlib will presumably avoid the coms.points or bypass them; if these com.points are also overrun in the assault then a tricky and imponderable breach in the alliance could be on the cards with unforseen consequences. The Russian are too smart to be outsmarted by the Turks, but Erdowan is playing a duplicitous game, he is still a Nato member on the one hand, and on the other hand he is trying to play it along with the allies and grate the Americans-Nato.. He seems to have a win-win hand for now. The outcome of Idlib is certain; what is not certain is whether it would signal the end of the terror war in that theater of the war or the opening of a new phase in the war against Bashar's Syria. The turks are bellowing that this slice of Syrian territory used to belong to the Ottomans, and they want it returned. The Russians should in turn claim back all the Tsarists territories that were given up to Ataturk in the aftermath of WW1.
ReplyDeletePolitics is not a familiy dispute, a bar brawl or a street fight. Politics is a chess game, an artform and an exact science. There is no place in politics for maximalism, inflexibility, emotions, bravado, knee-jerk reactions, incompetence, impatience, mistakes, etc. These are the reasons why Russians, among few others, have been the masters of politics for centuries. These are reasons why the majority of humanity, including us we Armenians, have not been particularly successful in politics. The situation in Syria is extremely complicated and very volatile. All regional powers are directly involved in the boiling culdron. One wrong step can lead to a world war that no one wants. The proof of this conflict's seriousness was the 4.5 hour meeting Putin had with the sultan wannabe. Russians are solving problems after problems as they slowly but surely push forward with their agenda. The Kremlin is playing the long-game in Syria. They are doing everything in their power to avoid a wider conflaguration, preserve Bashar Assad's rule and secure their historic success on the ground.
DeleteKnowing that it will come up eventually, allow me to also add this: Bolshevik-Turkish relations is NOT THE SAME as Russian/Czarist-Turkish relations. Under Bolshevik rule, Russia lost much more lives, wealth and territory than all other ethnic groups in the Russian Empire combined. Russia will not willingly cede a gram of its influence or a milimeter of its territory to anyone, especially to Turks.
Territory is lost and kept at the price of blood. Russians are the rare exception in history to have sold a considerable chunk of their country to another country for dollars, without a single drop of blood.
DeleteThe French haven't? When you have so much remote land under your control, you can sometimes afford selling some of it, especially if you are having a hard time securing it. That said, in hindseight, selling the territories of Alaska and Louisiana to the Americans were very stupid decisions by Russians and the French. Let's also recall that at the time, the US was a very close ally of Russia and France and an enemy of Britain.
DeleteAnd speaking of the serious dangers faced by Russian forces essentially surrounded in Syria -
Russian plane disappears from radars during Israeli attack on Syria’s Latakia: https://www.rt.com/news/438673-russian-il20-disappears-radars/
Bad, bad news. A Russian plane has been shot down with the death of 15 service soldiers. It was shot down by syrian anti aircraft defenses, but it looks as if the Israelis set the Russian plane as a cover to be shot at. The time has come for Russians to spread a ceiling in Syrya where their assets are positioned.This " accident" was bound to happen sooner or later. Amazing remarks by Shoigu saying that what happened is not in the spirit of the friendly Israeli-Russo partnership. Russians must be feeling miffed. They get shot at in the back by all her " partners". at one time or another. More accidents of this nature will happen again. On the upside is that for once the Syrian antiaircraft defenses are proving a tough bone to gnaw. Syrya must be furnished with an iron dome so that neither Israely planes nor American, nor turkish can run into accidents of this sort. It is time also to furnish the Syrian army with offensive armory. The israelis will have the Americanos die for them in the sands of Arabia, Syrians needs to become a formidable foe for those suckers willing to sacrifice their lives for the sake and benefit of the Israelis.Russia is indeed in a balancing tightrope act. Besieged by Nato and the EU in the West,using the Ukranian as cannon fodders, the prickly Israely porcupines in the mid east, the unreliable turks as partners in the area, and American bases breathing down Russian neck in the Asiatic East.
DeleteRussians have already succeeding in preventing another genocide in the region. Russian forces are operating thousands of kilometers away from their homes. Russian forces in Syria are literally surrounded by powerful enemies. All in all, it's been a noble and glorious endeavor on their part. What we have been seeing in Syria is essentially a historic battle between good and evil. Every single Russian service member stationed in Syria is thus a hero, and every single Russian death is therefore martyrdom in the name of political sanity, humanity, civilization and Christendom. I hope that the deaths of the 15 highly specialized service members in this incident will not be in vain.
DeleteThe Kremlin has been very diplomatic, very moderating, very restrained, very pliable, very cautious; all for very good reasons. Now, however, similar to what it did to Ankara three years ago, I hope to see the Kremlin put major pressure on Tel Aviv. As a result of this incident, I also hope to see Damascus receive more advanced anti-aircraft missile systems and I hope to see Tehran advance it's agenda in Syria further. I understand that the Kremlin does not want to further escalate tensions that are already dangerously high, ruin good diplomatic relations with important regional players or risk sparking a wider war, but Russians must also understand that they have no choice but to react forcefully to incidents like this if only to prevent them from happening again. As I have said, Russian forces are literally surrounded by powerful enemies and they are thousands of kilometers away from home. The last thing the Kremlin needs is to look or act weak.
PS: Perhaps Zoravar can shed more light on the matter. All aircraft, including military aircraft, have systems that allows them to be seen and identified by radars. On military aircraft, these systems are designed to avoid being shot down by allied forces in what is colloquially known as "friendly fire". So, although I do not have any information in regards to this, there is the possibility that the doomed aircraft was shot down (perhaps unintentionally) by either Israeli or French forces operating in the region. If so, since Moscow is not prepared to go to war against France or Israel, Moscow will do its best to downplay the incident, and use backdoor channels to get some sort of political compensation from the culprit. This incident underscores the extremely serious dangers Russian forces face in the Syrian cauldron.
Good, flirting with Azeris/Turks, let the Russians get a taste of what they can expect out of what some of their countrymen call "Russia's sole ally in the Caucasus (ie Azerbijan)". No coincidence the Izraeli defense minister was on a 5-DAY visit to Azerbaijan. These 3's umbilical cords are tied to each other. Now let the Russians go ponder of the meaning and significance of Armenia for the Russian state. Putin's backboneless explanation of a "chain of tragic accidental circumstances" is a true insult to his own martyred servicemen. Wake up and shake up, Russians!! the Caucasus and your entire southern frontier is at risk. You can't speak to turks and their umbelically-tied cohorts in the language of diplomacy--they don't speak that language and can't understand it.
DeleteThe Turkish ambush of the Russian warplane; the blowing up of the Russian airliner over Egypt; the demise of the aircraft carrying the Red Army Band to Syria; the assassination of the Russian ambassador in Turkey; and now this... Russians have been paying high price for their military intervention in Syria. If Moscow does not toughen its stance and keeps taking major hits like this, it risks losing something that has served it well for centuries, its "fear factor". Its this fear factor that has kept many of the Bear's enemies at bay. If the Bear loses its fear factor, its life will be endangered. The Kremlin has to continue it's diplomatic course, but when things like this happen, the Kremlin has to demand a big price from the guilty. I am deeply saddened by the loss of these military personnel. I hope their deaths will not be in vain. I therefore hope to see a tougher Russian stance, a better equipped Syrian air defense forces and the deeper entrenchment of Iranian military assets in Syria.
DeleteIt is a humiliating episode, beneath the dignity of a sovereign nation and power such as Russia. Putin's apologia is an enigma ,also a stain in the honor of the lost soldiers and army. He also seems to contradict his MOD and the commander of Russian forces in Syria. As always the chosen race escapes culpability and comes out smelling of roses. Putin would have done better by keeping his mouth shut this time. His anodyne comments were unfortunate in the circumstances. Death, or deaths in the field of combat can not be whitewashed and downgraded.
DeleteFrom what we know thus far, I do not believe that the Russian surveillance/spy aircraft was deliberately shot down by anyone. I also do not believe that Israelis would deliberately endanger the life of the aircraft. Using other aircrafts as cover is a common aerial fighting tactic. Although highly irresponsible and risky, I don't think the Israeli air force thought using the Russian spy plane in such a manner to attack targets in Syria could lead to the loss of the aircraft. So, I believe what happened was most probably an accident. An accident, however, as a result of reckless/dangerous Israeli actions. Tel Aviv is therefore responsible.
DeleteBut, yes, this was indeed a very humiliating episode for Russians. In fact, these types of incidents are making Russia look weak in a very tough neighborhood, during very volatile times. Looking weak is something Russians cannot afford, especially now, especially in a place like the Middle East.
Under the circumstances, however, President Putin said exactly what he should have said and Defense Minister Shoigu said exactly what he should have said. It was a well coordinated two-pronged approach, in my opinion. Similar to what Ankara faced some three years ago after its air force shot down a Russian warplane, Tel Aviv now has the choice of giving into Russian demands/conditions or resign to facing a less friendly Russia on the world stage, which is something Tel Aviv certainly can't afford. This tragedy could therefore prove to be a blessing in disguise.
Nevertheless, the loss of this aircraft and crew has to somehow be avenged. Once more: The Kremlin runs the risk of losing its fear factor. It therefore has to be a bit more forceful when dealing with regional predators. At the very least, Russians now have to stop looking the other way (which was essentially what the doomed spy plane was doing) every time Israel wants to attack targets in Syria; Russians have to begin providing Damascus with more sophisticated weaponry; Russians have to allow Tehran more freedom of action in Syria. This tragedy has to be used for Russia's and Syria's and Iran's benefit. If not, Russia and Syria and Iran stands to lose a lot more in the coming months and years...
Arevordi, agreed my friend, this is making Russians look very weak and thats something they cant afford. I know they want good diplomatic relations with all regional players but its beginning to backfire on them. Stuff like this is how wars begin, afraid were edging slowly to a world war.
DeleteArevordi,
DeleteYour answer about the IFF (Identification Friendly Foe) is provided by retired Russian Air Force General Alexander Ionov in this article:
Генерал-лейтенант авиации в отставке Александр Ионов: «Сирийские расчеты ПВО стреляли своими ракетами, пусть и российского производства»: https://zvezdaweekly.ru/news/t/20189181420-Dxjyv.html
Translation of most important part: "No matter how the allied relations are developed, we will never give up the national radar identification system to anyone. This is one of the main state secrets". In other words: The Syrian Air Defense system does not have the IFF codes (the Russians never provide theses codes to anybody). So the integratio
Thank you for the clarification, Zoravar.
DeleteI still don't understand how this could have happened when the air defense forces of Russia and Syria are - supposedly - integrated. I still have a feeling we are not being told the whole story. In any case, I understand the very difficult position President Putin is in vis-a-vis Israel.
People, especially us Armenians who have a stupid habit of comparing ourselves with Jews, need to understand that organized Jewry is a serious superpower in the world today. We also need to recognize that Jews are split with regards to Russia. American Jews tend to view Russia with distrust and hostility. Israeli Jews however tend to view Russia favorably. Over 1.5 million Israeli Jews hail from the territories of the former Soviet Union. Moreover, Russians have leverage inside Israel and Jews have leverage inside Russia. Russians and Jews also have very lucrative economic relations. However, unlike Anglo-American world, Russia is NOT a nation that is controlled by Jews, as some idiotically claim. If it were, Moscow would not be risking so much to preserve Alawite rule inside Syria and it would not be helping Iran with its nuclear missile program. That said, Russia has nothing to gain by turning Israel into an avowed enemy, which is what Tel Aviv may become if it sees Moscow fully siding with Damascus and Tehran.
I nonetheless was still a bit disappointed with President Putin's toothless reaction. Knowing Russians, I understand that the teeth in question or the bite may instead be seen or felt on the ground. I have no doubt Moscow will make necessary changes to the rules of engagement and therefore restrict Isrel's freedom of movement in and around Syria. The Bear has to however also bare its teeth in public, if only for PR concerns. Speaking of PR, this was a terrible blow to Russian prestige, something that was painstakingly rebuilt during the Putin years. This was a very major embarrassment for Moscow. This incident made Russia look weak and indecisive.
Moreover, Russians are also to blame for what happened. The Kremlin has been too damn lenient with Tel Aviv and others. Russians are too often looking the other way every time Israel and others conduct military operations inside Syria. I fully understand why Moscow is doing this: It wants to maintain the balance of power; macromanage the conflict at hand; stay open to dialogue with regional players (a form of complimentary politics); and defuse the possibilities of a wider war by allowing Americans, Turks and Israelis to essentially vent some of their frustrations by carrying out limited air strikes from time-to-time.
So, I understand this is their form of conflict management and complimentary politics. I also understand that as with all such approaches it is bound to backfire at some point. Simply put: The aircraft and crew was lost because Russians were being too tolerant of Israel's aggression. Period. So, Russians are also to blame for what happened. I nevertheless hope that the deaths and the blow to Russian prestige will not have been in vain in the long run. I hope to see a more aggressive Russia and a less aggressive Israeli as a result of all this. I also hope to see Iran and Hezbollah gain as a result of this.
Arevordi,
DeleteI agree with everything you said especially that this is also Russian's fault. There should be a no fly zone all around Syria. Russians have been playing nice far too long. It's high time to stop it. I know how Jews think. They gave Russians little time of warning because they did NOT want Russians to tip off Syrians and Iranians which is what Russians have been doing. If you notice every time Israel bombs targets in Syria there are very few casualties. It's because Syrians are being tipped off by Russians. That's why Israelis are freaking out. So what do their do, they put lives of Russian goyim in danger to reach their objective like they have been doing for centuries. It's high time Russians stopped playing nice with these genocidal maniacs. What happened is a tragedy but good for Syria and Iran. The Russian MoD on the incident:
"The Russian Defence Ministry held a special briefing to provide detailed information on the crash of the Russian Il-20 off the Syrian coast on September 17. The Spokeperson Major General Igor Konashenkov presented a minute-by-minute chronology of the tragedy based on objective data provided by radars including that of the Plotto air information display system. On September 17, the Russian Il-20 survey aircraft at 20:31 started special survey mission in the Idlib de-escalation zone. It had 15 Russian servicemen on board. At the same time, four Israeli F-16 jets scrambled from Israel to carry out a sudden attack against industrial facilities in the Syrian Arab Republic. You can see the flight route of the Israeli jets on the screen. The F-16 jets flew over the Mediterranean Sea to take patrolling area 90 km west of Latakia. At 21:39 a colonel of the Israeli Air Force Command informed the Russian Command in Syria through the deconfliction channel on the upcoming missile strike. She said that in the next minutes Israel would attack facilities in north Syria. In a minute, at 21:40, four Israeli F-16 jets dropped GBU-39 air bombs targeting the industrial facilities in Latakia province. Thus, the Israeli side informed the Russian group about its operation, breaching the existing agreements, not in advance, but simultaneously with the beginning of the strikes. These actions constitute a clear violation of the 2015 Russian-Israeli agreements to prevent clashes between our armed forces in Syria reached by the joint working group."
Source: http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12196560@egNews
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=Qg9GliGS0RY
Well said Karmir, it's obvious that Russians were tipping off the Syrians and Iranians about the illegal air strike by Israel, as well as US, Turkey and others. The Russians were allowing these kinds of hits essentially to let Israel and the others to let off some steam, as well as maintain some form of relationship with the players in question. After this incident, things may begin changing finally. But this was a very powerful report by the Defense Ministry. The Kremlin is clearly very upset. The not so candid warnings were also quite interesting. What we see here is in essence the difference between a nation that seeks to cooperate with Jews/Israel (i.e. the Russian Federation) and one that unconditionally serves Jews/Israel (i.e. the United States). Endangering lives of goyim in order to advance their cause has been going on not for hundreds of years but for thousands of years. Read their religious texts (some of which has been adopted by our idiotic forefathers) to see what I mean. In any case, if Russians want, and we'll have to wait and see what they will decide, this can really turn into a disaster for Israelis. Here is an excellent video report by RT's Gazdiev.
DeleteRussian MoD reveals detailed chronology of Il-20 downing in Syria:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1_opAKm3Jo
___
And this just in. This is the showing of the Bear's teeth (if not the bite) I was talking about -
"Russia will jam satellite navigation, on-board radars and communication systems of combat aircraft, which attack targets in the Syrian territory, in the regions over the waters of the Mediterranean Sea bordering with Syria, Shoigu said... This forced us to take an adequate response aimed at improving the security of Russian troops performing tasks to combat international terrorism in Syria, he said at the briefing... We are convinced that the implementation of these measures will cool hotheads and prevent ill-considered actions threatening our servicemen. Otherwise we will have to respond in line with the current situation," Shoigu stated... We won’t let Syria be turned into a main Iranian military facility against the Israeli state. We continue to act and we have all the necessary means and opportunities to this end, he said."
Russia to Send S-300 Anti-Missile System to Syria After Il-20 Crash - DM Shoigu:
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201809241068279653-russia-syria-s-300/
“It was inevitable that at some point [Israel] would cross that line in its special relationship with Russia and would go a bit too far,” said Beirut-based journalist Martin Jay... The deal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin gave to Israel was incredible. It [not only] allowed Israel to make air strikes with impunity across the country on targets that it believed to be Hezbollah weapons factories or Iranian military installations... I think all bets are off now. Russia is showing Israel who is in charge and that it won’t take any more nonsense, Jay told RT... They will have to use more assets, use armed drones and cruise missiles as opposed to fighter jets, he said. At least that’s what they told me when we discussed a possible delivery of the S-300 a few years ago… Of course this would be more difficult, more costly and more risky... Russia has made its response and showed Israel how displeased it is. But Russia and Israel are partners, and neither side wishes to endanger this partnership. I believe a way forward that would satisfy both parties would be found. The Israelis would be more cautious in the future while Russia would refrain from further escalation, Surkov predicted. “At the moment we don’t have a confrontation here, just mutual complaints.”
Russia’s S-300 delivery shows Israel who’s in charge, but not aimed at hurting relations – analysts:
https://www.rt.com/news/439211-russia-israel-syria-fallout/
Israel is a super power in the world. It would be highly elucidating to reveal the lucrative trade between the bandit state and Russia. What possibly could Russia benefit for trading with the bandit state the size of New Jersey. Israely tomatoes ?, cucumbers ? I.T ? The situation calls for Bashar Assad to be provided with offensive weapons and technology, not just defensive systems. The bandid state would stop flying and attacking Syria only when Avignon Lieberman starts eating his own excrement. That is when the prize of bombing Syria it is not worth the price.
DeleteBLOWBACK: Syria Will Receive S-300 Air Defenses and State-of-the-Art Guidance Systems in 2 Weeks -- Russian MoD : https://russia-insider.com/en/blowback-syria-will-receive-s-300-air-defenses-and-state-art-guidance-systems-2-weeks-russian-mod
DeleteIt's official and ghest are the kind of good news and the kind of response only the Russians can give. Everything cold and calculated. Claps to Vladimir!
https://verizon.yahoo.com/news/national-security-adviser-john-bolton-major-mistake-russia-151416562.html
DeleteRussia is in very unenviable position, surrounded by powerful enemies in the middle of a big battle zone. May God give them the courage to do the right thing.
Although senseless loss of life, the plane downing and military parade attack should serve to remind the rassian and irani governments that there is state between them serving as a den of spies for that country behind all these. they would love nothing more than to sow unrest in our region. if the arab separatism in iran is concerning to them, the 20-30 million azeris should keep the Iranian govt sleepless.
DeleteI agree. The Azeri factor is a very major concern for Iranian officials. But, the situation at hand is not as black and white as you think. Don't you think there are Anglo/American and Israeli spies among Armenians as well? In fact, Armenian society (homeland and diaspora) is full of anti-Russian and anti-Iranian agents. When it comes to international relations, Baku is actually playing a much smarter game than Yerevan. Azeri officials are doing their best to maintain good relations with Tehran, as well as Tel Aviv, as well as Moscow, as well as Ankara... There is also a lot of bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Iran. I don't know if you know this or not, but there is very little by the way of bilateral relations between Yerevan and Tehran. Baku has also been smart enough curtail Anglo/American political/propaganda interests in Azerbaijan. Yerevan is doing the opposite. So, ask yourself: When will our asshole-in-chief (who's administration including himself has been financed by NED and George Soros for many years) going to be paying Tehran an official state visit? When is Nikol going to vist Armenia's most friendly neighbor? Nikol has been to Russia already (essentilly because he has no choice in the matter); he has been to Europe already; and he is currently in the United States... admiring none-other-than Nelson Mandela (a vermin, who's lasting political legacy in South Africa is that of a utterly filthy, lawless, impoverished, corrupt and disease ridden nation with a genocidal government). So, when it comes to a "den of spies", look no further than your community.
DeleteOne can paint a few scenarios of what "war" by American Jewry on Iran could look like. Do we know the technological level of the Iranian armed forces and national state ? War against Iran by American-international Jewry forces will have an adverse effect on Armenia. What would Russia's position be? American Jewry is caught in a quagmire in Afghanistan; they want to recreate a new Afghanistan in Syria- a quagmire- where they can start deboning Russian influence, and others supporting the legitimate government of Bashar. What would happen to tiny Israel ? Surely some of the Iranian missiles ( if one listens to their rhetoric and bluster) if they hit their targets can wipe out a good number of Israeli towns and cities. In 1989 Saddam in a speech to his generals made allusions and threats that Iraqi missile and bombs will disintegrate Israel it came to a war. That belligerent boast and bluster was Saddam's death sentence. We all know that his arsenal of missile or bombs shot at Israel were more like flying dustbins then serious weapons. Are Iranians under a similar delusion? Will American Jewry have a land mass war or they will go for the tried and tested recipe of carpet bombing ?. Iran is much larger a terrain than Iraq or Yugoslavia. It will take more than 60 days of a sustained bombing campaign to have the desired results they had in Iraq or Yugoslavia. The beginning of the end always starts with a miscalculation, an error in detail. Before American Jewry wages war on Iran it would be logical to wait and see what effect the S300 to be delivered to Syria will have on the Israeli predator state. If Israel planes start falling from the sky, or their missile launches intercepted and neutralized, we can safely assume that American Jewry will have to devise and conceive new strategies and actions hitherto taken. All in all as things stand now it is too early to assume the conflict in Syria is about to end. Maybe Putin and Bashar were a little premature to announce victory a few months back? Turkey has reinforced its position in the north, and the political analysts are beginning to see a parallel with Northern cyprus. The much heralded battle for Idlib is yet to come. After Idlib we have Jarablus, and after that who knows, Deir Zor, and finally east of the Euphrates. It is very unlikely that turkey will exit NATO. This will be a prickly thorn on Russia's side.
DeleteI've been following the comments on youtube videos and have been noticing distinc patterns. The level of viscous abuse and the specific comments being made against even known patriots and heroes of the nation if they make a single comment against nikol or sasna tsrer or hayk marutyan is staggering. The patterns clearly indicate an organized structure, probably well funded given the volume.
ReplyDeleteYou are 1000% correct in your observation/assumption. There is a not so little army of Western-funded cyber warriors and professional internet trolls in active operation. They are mostly English speakers. I suspect many of them may not even be Armenian. They nevertheless produce a massive amount of political spin and propaganda throughout social media as well as message boards of various news sites such as Hetq, Armenian Weekly and Asbarez. Without going into detail, one such individual (or individuals) has also targeted me personally on facebook. In any case, these trolls are having an impact on Armenian society. Because Armenians tend to be emotional and politically naive/ignorant, these activists are slowly but surely swaying public opinion. You will see people now simply parroting what they heard or read on the internet. In any case, you can easily pick out these cyber activists. They all sound the same. They use similar talking points. They use similar key words and phrases. They always bring up issues relating to "corruption", "oligarchs", "the Karabakh Clan", "democracy", "justice", "human rights", "Soviet legacy", "Russian aggression" and of course the need to gain Armenia's "independence" from Russia. More recently, many in Nikol's support base have been mobilized to defend the "revolution" against what they describe as "counter-revolutionaries''. These Nikol activists are also easy to pick out because they also sound the same. Nikol's activists have more-or-less merged with the already large chorus of Western-funded activists. These "on-line" activists therefore now have a massive presence throughout Cyberia. Consequently, all dissenting voices and ideas are now being drowned out. Armenian Cyberia today is a virtual cesspool, and its filth and stink is beginning to manifest/materialize itself on the "Armenian Street". All in all, we are in uncharted territory and the country's future does not look good if Nikol and his Liberal/Globalist cohorts are not somehow neutralized.
DeleteWell, this certainly changes a lot of things now:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/korean-war-ends-kim-jong-un-moon-jae-in-north-south-summit-latest-news-a8324976.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#link_time=1524820872
A formal end to the Korean War would mean a lot of things in Asia. Korean reunification might also become a reality within our lifetime, and the fact that the conflict is officially over means that the geopolitical dynamics in NE Asia will change gradually.
Yes, isnt it amazing what can be achieved when a state detaches from globalist or other imperialist forces and plots a truly homegrown independent path. None of what you're saying could have been achieved without the sacrifice, political will and hard work of the nth Koreans who under tremendous pressure were still able to develop into a nuclear power and force the global hegemon to the negotiating table instead of bending over for him. Now let's see how far the southern puppets will be allowed to go.
DeleteThis was all made possible by the South Korean president, who's courageous "Korea first" policies led to the current warming of relations with North Korea. But, it's premature to celebrate as it's not over yet. Uncle Sam still wields great influence in Seoul. That said, the Trump administration's main concern is not the Korean penninsula but the state of Iran. You may recall that two years ago I predicted that the Trump administration will come to terms with the two Koreas (to a certain extent) and instead wage war on Iran. Chances are, there will be a war with Iran before Trump is gone.
DeleteSouth Korea's president operates under strict operating procedures that are dictated by the US. They still have no command of their own military and couldnt prevent the US from running dangerous war games every year, not to mention the installation of anti-Chinese THAD system on their territory. If you recall the assassination of Park Chung-Hee when he dared to adopt an independent policy. The south were given their own version of JFK and Lee Harvey Oswald back in 1979. I attribute the latest achievements in unification on the peninsula entirely to the North's nuclear weapon and missile development successes.
DeleteA war with Iran would be disastrous for the global economy and would irreversibly destroy the US economically before any other country. I can only hope this would be the biggest incentive to prevent such a thing.
Arto, I know. The North's nuclear capabilities is what that brought all sides to the table. That is a given. In fact, that is essentially why Anglo-American-Jews are freaking out about Iran. Iran already has a quite capable military. Iran, as a nuclear power, will smash the Zionist state's overwhelming military supremacy in the region. Without its "fear factor" (i.e without clear military superiority over it neighbors) Israel can be defeated. In any case, I just wanted to give some credit to President Moon Jae-In because he ran on the platform of warming relations with the North. It was very unpopular in Washington. I am no Korea expert but from what I can see, he actually seems like a very good leader. I am also very impressed by President Kim Jong-Un.
DeleteA reunited Korea will be a net positive in the international arena, but the main loser in all of this may be Japan. In most Asian cultures, they placed a high emphasis on honour, so in the eyes of the Japanese, having a reunited Korea that outperforms them will definitely cause them to lose face. Why? Because Japan once ruled Korea as its colony. They don't like the idea of being upstaged by their former rival and colony. In any case, if united Korea becomes a staunch American ally, then Japan may be forced to go its own way, as neither one of those countries would be interested in making peace with each other. Koreans hated Japan due to the Wokou (Japanese pirate) raids along their coasts, the Imjin War, and most recently, the Japanese colonial period. In any case, having Japan develop an independent foreign policy that keeps both America and China at arm's length would lead to a Third Force becoming prominent in Asia. A resurgent Japan can also repeal Article 9 of their constitution, which bans them from having a formal military. Moreover, as a maritime power, the Japanese navy can easily blockade the Chinese coast should there be another war involving China and Japan.
Delete___
An interesting video by RT about Trump's UNGA speech and its segment. I can testify as to why left wing intellectuals are to blame for my generation's growing admiration for socialism despite its inherent fatal flaws and overt rhetoric on collectivism:
Trump's Cold War-era rant… UNGA not impressed?: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H2hsc0WoF4Q
I'm quite tempted to say that perhaps Trump should re-ignite a Third Red Scare, because the Democrats are now leaning favourably towards socialism. Since the McCarthyite style speech has not impressed the rest of the UNGA, I am also tempted to ask: when will right wing death squads be considered a necessity than a mere joke and internet meme? It's this kind of socialism that gives birth to the degenerative cancer called Marxism, which in turn spawns its own deadly offsprings. I am thoroughly disgusted with the millennial generation that were stupid enough to be seduced by socialism. We should learn to hate socialism again.