To keep things real/objective, the following is what the Azeri military is showcasing -
Azərbaycan Ordusunun bölmələrinin ələ keçirdiyi düşmənə məxsus zirehli texnikalar
The Second Battle for Artsakh is much bigger than the first war that took place between 1988 and 1994. The first war was mostly guerilla
type warfare between poorly equipped and poorly organized militia groups. It was a time when Armenia and Azerbaijan did not have fully formed armed forces. I would even go as far as saying that the amount of
ammunition used in this war in just two to three weeks is probably more than all of the ammunition used in the first war. Needless to say, this war is also incomparably larger than the fighting
that took place in April, 2016. What happened back in 2016 was more-or-less a border skirmish. Baku was basically testing some of its new weapons system it had purchased from Turkey and Israel. From a historical perspective, this war is also much larger than the historic battle of Sardarapat in 1918. In my opinion, this war is bigger than anything we Armenians have fought by ourselves and for our lands in perhaps over 1000 years. From an international standpoint, the world has
not seen this type of conventional warfare since 2003, when Anglo-American-Jews
invaded Iraq. And the one prior to that was the first Iraq war in 1991. And the one prior to that was Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982. The
Russian-Georgian war in August, 2008 had the potential to be a
conventional war but it never materialized as such. That war was
essentially a total rout of Georgian forces that ended
in 3 days. When the
Russian military
unexpectedly intervened to help Abkhazian and South Ossetian irregulars, Saakashvili's American/Turkish/Israeli trained and equipped troops
basically abandoned their positions and ran away. All other wars in the past 30 or so years, such as Syria, Donbass,
Libya, Kurdistan, Yugoslavia, Lebanon, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan,
Kosovo and Chechnya were for the most part conventional armies or paramilitary groups fighting irregular forces or terrorist groups. What we are seeing in Artsakh today are two well-trained and well-armed militaries engaged in full-scale, combined-arms-combat along a
very long front. In a nutshell, what we are seeing in Artsakh today is
what conventional
warfare actually looks like, and there has not been too many of them in recent
decades. What we are seeing today in Artsakh is also a new generation of war. Thus far, Artsakh's defense forces have been performing admirably well against Azerbaijan's blitzkrieg which, as noted above, is being assisted by Turkish military advisors, Islamic mercenaries from Syria and very advanced Israeli-made weaponry. However, there is unsettling news from the war-front.
It's been little over two weeks into this war and Armenia has not yet started using its military potential to defend Artsakh. Artskah's defense forces are thus far only trying to preserve/maintain their positions against relentless Azeri attacks. As of this writing, and I hope this will change soon, there has not yet been a major counterattack against the invaders. Armenia has not yet made any serious effort to turn-the-tide of the war and place Baku on the defensive. Consequently, many lives and a significant amount of territory has already been lost in Artsakh.
Nikol's regime does not seem interested in winning this war
I am not talking about Yerevan resorting to drastic measures that may escalate the situation, such as bombing targets in or near Baku, I
am talking about standard defensive and/or offensive steps that Armenia is capable of taking but is choosing not to. Allow me to elaborate: As of this writing,
Armenia's armed forces has not used its newly received air superiority
fighters, the Russian made SU-30 SM, to intercept Azeri warplanes or
helicopters attacking Artsakh's front-line positions, although an Armenian SU-25 was shot-down over Armenia
allegedly by a Turkish-16. As of this
writing, Armenia has not made full use of its quite capable air defense systems to
intercept large caliber balistic missiles and rockets being fired at Stepanakert and Shushi, even though a lot of civilian as well as religious structures have been destroyed or damaged. As of this writing, Armenia's military is not helping Artsakh's military carry-out counterattacks in order to outflank and
encircle Azeri military units that have apparently penetrated into
Artsakh held territory in the south-east along the Iranian border. Israeli made Harop "loitering" or "suicide" drones and Turkish made Bayraktar TB2 attack drones in particular are taking a very high toll on Armenian troops and armaments. Armenian forces stationed in Artsakh thus far seem defenseless against these state-of-the-art weapons systems. Preliminary estimates suggest three-quarters of all Armenian losses have been due to these combat drones. As of this writing, however, Armenia's armed forces have not deployed anti-drone weapons systems that they possess, such as the Russian made Avtobaza and Krasukha Electronic Warfare complex, to neutralize this serious threat facing Artsakh's military. As of this writing, Armenia's armed forces have not brought the ground war into Azerbaijan to put pressure on Baku and also to put the Azeri military on the defensive. As of this writing,
Armenia is also not using its precision guided ballistic missiles to destroy
Ganja's gas/oil pipelines. Regarding this last point: An official in the
current regime in Yerevan, I believe it was Arman Babajanyan, who is of course a Western grant recipient like so many in Armenia's political landscape today, some months ago
spoke strongly against targeting Baku's oil/gas pipelines in the event of a war; more-or-less saying that an act like that will turn the "international
community" against Armenia. Even Armenia's Defense Ministry is now reassuring the "international community" that Azerbaijan's Western financed energy sector (the real reason why we have this war in the first place, and the reason why Baku can afford sophisticated weapons systems) will not be targeted. This is the height of incompetence or treason or both.
After Nikol's "war on corruption" purges, Armenia's defense ministry seems compromised as well. Military officials in Yerevan are trying to spin the situation as
best as they can to make it look as if everything is okay. All the while, more-and-more soldiers are getting killed and more-and-more territory is being lost. Thus far, Nikol has done everything a "commander-in-chief" would do NOT to win a war like this.
For the past two weeks I have been hoping that Armenia's defense ministry was simply waiting to wear-down and deplete Azeri forces before it began any serious
counterattacks to encircle invading Azeri troops and bring the war into Azerbaijani territory. After almost three weeks of intense fighting and significant amounts of losses, a major counterattack has not yet materialized. Artsakh's military is small and they have limited resources. Stepanakert is only capable of carrying-out localized counterattacks of limited scope. Artsakh by itself is not strong enough to turn-the-tide of this
war against Baku. If Stepanakert remains in a defensive posture as it has been, through attrition Azeri forces will
gradually grind-down Artsakh's defenses (mostly notably in Artsakh's vulnerable south) and slowly continue advancing towards
Armenia's border. Artsakh therefore needs DIRECT assistance from Armenia's military. By saying direct assistance I am not referring to civilian volunteers, I am instead referring to modern weapons systems that can turn-the-tide of this war. It has been a little over two weeks into this war and no such help has yet arrived. Something needs to be done because every day Stepanakert is losing territory.
I am not a
military strategist but just from looking at the map, I see a long, narrow Azeri salient that has formed in the south along the Iranian border.
Such salients in times of war are
very vulnerable to outflanking attacks. If done properly, Armenian
forces can cut-off large numbers of Azeri forces and encircle them. This
must however be done without weakening Artsakh's defenses in the north and the
east. Artsakh's northern and eastern sector's need to continue
holding their positions. Those areas can be defended more effectively.
Thus far, Artsakh forces have fared well in those areas. With the
northern and eastern sectors secured, a large force can be
assembled in central Artsakh. This force can then start an offensive towards
Hadrut and Horadiz, all the way down to the Iranian border. If successful, large numbers of Azerbaijan's military units and armaments will become trapped and therefore vulnerable to destruction. Because
Artsakh's military is small, such a counterattack can only be done
without weakening other sectors. Such a counterattack will also need effective air defenses. Artsakh therefore needs direct help
from Armenia, and it needs it NOW. As of now, the Azeri salient is exposed and vulnerable to a counterattack because they have not yet had the time to reinforce their positions. The longer Armenia's military leadership allows the Azeri invasion force to remain in the territory, the more
difficult it will be to dislodge them at a future point in time.
Nevertheless, I very
clearly see the potential of a major Azeri defeat in the south. Thus far, however, Nikol's regime in Yerevan does not seem interested. What Nikol's regime seems to be doing is killing large numbers of civilian volunteers (perhaps hundreds) by sending
them as cannon-fodder against Israeli and Turkish drones. This is the height of incompetence or treason.
Nikol and his Soros clowns need to be pressured to
recognize Artsakh so that Armenia can properly use it armed forces to
defend Artsakh and repel the invaders. I reiterate: The longer we allow Baku to hold
on to the territories they have taken recently, the harder it will be to
push them back at a future date. Artsakh's military alone does not have the manpower or
the resources to do the job. Armenia needs to get involved. Nikol's regime needs to be
pressured to take Artsakh's defense more seriously. Nikol's regime needs to get serious about Artsakh's defense. By
saying serious, I am not talking about sending scores of inexperienced
civilian volunteers to die fighting against Turkish and Israeli drones,
I am talking about recognizing Artsakh, I am talking about transferring
serious military capability into Artsakh, I am talking about bombing
Ganja's oil/gas distribution networks, I am talking about bringing the
war into Azerbaijan. If what I have outlined above is not done, then the territories Azeris have captured recently will
remain in Baku's hands, and we will continue losing more lives and more territories in the coming days or weeks.
I have been warning about all this for over two years now: The LAST THING we needed
during a war like this was a Western-financed liberal/pacifist
opposition journalist who avoided military service when he was young and who worked many years for Levon Petrosyan. The LAST THING we needed was a government populated by professional Russophobes and Globalists. The following articles highlight the warnings Armenia was receiving shortly before this war -
As noted above, Armenia has not yet used its full military potential to protect Artsakh. Other than sending conscripts and civilian volunteers, Armenia's armed forces has largely kept itself out of this war. As a result, Armenian forces in Artsakh have suffered several thousand casualties, hundreds of millions of dollars in armament losses and significant amounts of territory.
Some will make the excuse that Armenia cannot get directly involved militarily because Armenia does not officially recognize Artsakh and it therefore does not have a "defense pact" with Stepanakert. In other words, the claim is Yerevan cannot be "legally" involved in a war that is between Artsakh and Azerbaijan. Incidentally, those who make these types of claims are more-or-less the same people that also bitterly complain that Russia is not helping Artsakh. And some will inevitably make the excuse that "Putin did not allow Nikol to send in Armenia's military". Ultimately, both are bullshit excuses/explanations. Regarding Armenians favorite topic of "international law" and "international community": "International law" is written by the strong to control the weak and the "international community", Anglo-American-Jews in particular, does not care if Armenia or Artsakh lived or
died. Those with normally functioning brains already know this. Just like how Yerevan has been quietly sending soldiers and older armaments to Artsakh for the past 30 years, Yerevan can use back-channels and covert methods to send more modern weapons systems and larger numbers of professional soldiers to the war-front. And if it is indeed Moscow that is causing problems in this regard, then THIS would have been the best time to disobey Moscow.
At the end of the day, and regardless of everything else, it is up to Armenia to protect Artsakh as Artsakh is too small to do it alone. At the end of the day, Nikol is the person in power now. So, whatever goes wrong in Artsakh, he needs to be held accountable.
Besides, whatever happened to Nikol's now famous "Artsakh is Armenia" and "Aliyev is an educated man" diplomacy? Whatever happened to Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan's now famous "new war, new territory" deterrence strategy? Actually, where is Armenia's defense minister? We are in the midst of a major war and he and his promise to liberate more territories in case Baku started a war are MIA (missing in action). I see the defense minister's subordinate, Artsrun Hovanissyan on a daily basis. However, I have not seen Defense Minister Tonoyan since the start of this war. It seems as if he and his deterrence strategy are being somehow suppressed. I do not know if it is connected to this matter in any way, but three days before the start of this war Azeri news media floated the idea that Defense Minister Tonoyan may be preparing a revolution against Nikol. This report is most likely disinformation and/or psy-ops put out by Baku. Nevertheless, it's worth a look -
I seriously hope that I am proven wrong in my observations in this regard, as we still do not
know full details of that is happening on the battlefield. I seriously hope that Armenia's defense ministry is waiting to perhaps wear-down and deplete Azeri forces before it begins a serious counterattack inside Azerbaijani territory. I seriously hope that Armenian forces are waiting for the order to bomb Ganja's oil/gas pipelines. As of this writing, however, Armenia does not
seem to be using its full military potential to defend Artsakh against
this full-scale military assault by Azerbaijan. If my assessments
prove correct, is Armenia's restraint in his war a result of miscalculation and/or incompetence - or is there
something sinister happening behind-the-scenes in Yerevan?
If Armenia's restraint in this war proves deliberate and politically motivated, that would suggests to me that this war may
not only be preordained (i.e. decided to take place well in advance) but
also predetermined (i.e. it's outcome also decided in advance).
Therefore, I am slowly beginning to believe that this war is at some level being macro-managed
somewhere from above and beyond, and that may not be good news for Armenia
and for Artsakh.
I have a feeling that this war is being macro-managed to convince Azeris that their military, despite how modern, is unable to take Artsakh proper, and convince us Armenians that our military, despite how brave, is unable to hold on to all the territories.
This, in a nutshell, may very well be the international community's answer to Armenia's and Azerbaijan's maximalistic politics. In any case, what I know for sure right now is that Nikol's government is not properly defending Artsakh. Armenia's armed forces are not directly getting involved in the fight in order to turn-the-tide of the war, stop the loss of territory and put Baku on the defensive. Artsakh's military is capable of defending its territory but it cannot counterattack. Artsakh's military is very small and it possess mostly standard, Soviet era weaponry. Artsakh needs Armenia's military's direct and active assistance in this war. Nikol is thus far missing in action in this regard. Knowing him and his political connections, I suspect it's intentional. I am glad that people have started to wake-up in this regard. There are war veterans now asking Nikol to get out of the way of the war effort in Artsakh and allow generals to fight the war -
Let's recall that throughout history Armenia's main Achilles Heel has been not its fighting forces (we all know the names of the great military leaders we have given to the world going back thousands of years), it has been Armenia's self-destructive and shortsighted POLITICS. It is no different today. As much as I would like to restrain my criticism of Armenia's government in a time of war, I am unable to do so in this case because of the duplicitous nature and the vile character of the current ruling administration in Yerevan.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (I prefer calling him just Nikol) may or many not be a deep Russian agent. Him having connections to Russian intelligence is pure speculation that first began emerging when Nikol's government after having come to power did not quickly begin the process of breaking Armenia's umbilical cord to Russia as it was expected to by Westerners. But there is a logical/earthly explanation behind why he did not and that is - he could not. That simple. He was unable to break Armenia's ties to Russia because he most probably knows that Armenia would collapse as a result and he along with his entire family would most probably be killed. We do however know three things about Nikol that are not based in speculation but can in fact be proven in court: 1) Nikol was one of Levon Petrosyan's top officials and he even led Levon's unsuccessful color revolution in 2008. 2) Nikol operated an opposition newspaper with direct financing from the CIA-founded National Endowment for Democracy (NED). 3) Nikol immediately populated his government with Soros grant recipients, Globalists, homosexuals and Russophobes as soon as he came to power. These are the three facts we know about Nikol. So, as the famous American saying goes: When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck. Nikol may still one day come out as one of the most brilliant double agents that has ever worked for Russian intelligence. But, for now, let's just stick with what we know about Nikol. Everything about the man, from his crazy eyes to his bitchy voice, from his wife to his mentor Levon, from his neo-Bolshevik comrades to his NED connections, stinks to high heaven. I do not trust him. So, while I would naturally refrain from criticizing Armenia's leader in a time of war, Nikol is not that leader and this is not that time.
Nikol needs to be placed under constant watch by true patriots
Nikol needs to be placed under CONSTANT pressure in order for him not to screw-up Armenia and Artsakh anymore than he already has. In other words, he and his handlers (regardless of who they are) need to be cognizant of the fact that he is disliked by real patriots and that he is being closely watched. I should also add here that recent elections in Artsakh has brought pro-Western individuals into politics in Stepanakert as well. I still cannot make my mind up on Araik Harutunyan, but Masis Mayilyan is someone known to be associated with Washington DC. Political observers inside Armenia tried to raise the alarm about Masis Mayilyan - on more than one occasion - because he was actually considered to a George Soros backed official. Some may recall that before the last elections in Artsakh, Mailyan was being promoted by many of Armenia's professional Russophoes. There have been a lot of disconcerting signs coming out of Yerevan as well as Stepanakert in recent times. But, for now, I am just going to stick to discussing the Western financed head of the snake, Nikol Pashinyan. The last thing we needed during a major war like this was a "commander-in-chief" who was a deserter from the military, who had ties to Washington's NED and who has populated his government with George Soros agents and Russophobes. Even Armenia Fund's director today is a Russophobe. The last thing we needed during a major war like this was a "commander-in-chief" who worked many years for a criminal/traitor like Levon Petrosyan. Ultimately,
I believe this is Nikol's war. His rise to power made this war inevitable in my opinion. I made my feelings about this matter known over
two years ago almost as soon as Nikol was
put into power after what clearly looked like a political conspiracy. Please revisit my blog commentaries from the time -
Some of us had a good idea of who Nikol was and what purpose he was serving in Armenia. Exactly one year ago, Artsakh war hero Vitaly Balasyan publicly sounded the alarm about Nikol's regime. Some of us also knew that a major war like this was coming. Four years ago former Artsakh general Samvel Babayan even predicated the tactical nature of the war that would take place. I now believe Nikol
also knew this war was coming. He may have found out about it however AFTER he was given political power. If I had to guess, I would say the following picture was around the time when Nikol was told by his handlers in the West that he will preside over a bloody war that will see the return of Armenian held territories in Artsakh to Azerbaijan. Incidentally, in case the reader did not know from looking at the following picture, seated next to a slumping, already defeated looking Nikol is an "educated person" -
In my opinion, this war is why a street scoundrel like Nikol was put into power. He therefore has a task to perform. He most likely knows he will be killed if he deviates from the path that was chosen for him. We
do not know however if Nikol is a "patsy" (an unsuspecting dupe) or an agent serving
foreign interests. If Nikol is killed after this war, we may never find
out.
In
my opinion, this war is also why President Serj Sargsyan fomented unrest in the
country in 2018, indirectly elevated Nikol into the political limelight and then quietly stepped out of the way. Nikol (and
Levon Petrosyan, behind the scenes) was then allowed to get the country into this situation. Nikol may have done it wittingly or he may have done it unwittingly. Regardless of his intentions, his regime basically got us to where we are today. In other words, President Sargsyan knew this war was coming at least as early as 2016. He therefore washed his hands of it and a patsy/dupe or an agent was then put in power to preside over the war. This war
will most probably end with Official Yerevan agreeing to land
concessions at some point in the future. Ultimately, this war is a result of a political conspiracy against Artsakh. Russian's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned our sheeple some months ago about secret deals being made between Nikol and Aliyev. Lukashenko also seemed to be doing the same by indirect means. Russia Today's Margarita Simonyan also tired to warn our sheeple about the growing trend of anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia, and did so on more than one occasion. Armenia's politically illiterate peasantry, still filled with hate towards the "Karabakh Clan" and incited by Western/Turkish agents, did not take any of this seriously. In any case, it seems that Presidents Sargsyan and
Kocharyan would not put themselves in this position, and that is why
Nikol was brought into the picture in 2018. Nikol may therefore be a patsy or he may be an active part of the political conspiracy. Whatever the case may be, this is Nikol's war. By saying this I am not absolving the previous two presidents from all guilt. Every single presidency Armenia has had in the post-Soviet period has been terribly flawed and corrupt. That said, Levon Petrosyan remains in a special category that can only be described as high treason, and Nikol was his obedient servant for a long time. I am therefore not surprised that Nikol's regime was signaling its willingness to concede lands merely a week into a war that Armenia's defense ministry claims to be winning - I
do not care in what context Nikol said these words. Our nation's leader
should NOT be talking about land concessions in a war that is ultimately about land, while
full-scale combat is going on, and especially when our side is supposedly
doing very well. This is an outrage! This is treason! By talking about land concessions - in the middle of a hot war -
Nikol is giving Aliyev the encouragement and impetus to continue this war in order to
give Baku more leverage during negotiations which will naturally take place afterwards. Precious lives are being lost in the process. No matter how one looks at
it, Nikol's choice of words is a form of capitulation in the middle of a war. This
war is the biggest opportunity we had in 26 years to take additional lands if only to offset land losses we have suffered recently. This war is also the greatest opportunity we had in 26 years to
annex or recognize Artsakh. We were promised more lands if a war broke out. We were also told Artsakh was Armenia. Nikol's regime however has thus far done none of it, the war has not been brought into Azerbaijan and Artsakh has not been recognized. If the fighting stopped tomorrow, Artsakh would technically be the loser. Thus far, about three weeks into this war, Baku is winning.
Nikol's regime has been a disaster for Armenia from day one. And it's only getting worst. Having gotten themselves in a historic mess, and clearly seeing that Western powers (those who many of Nikol's officials served for most of their lives) do not actually care if Armenia/Artsakh lived or died, Nikol's regime, a well-known den of professional Russophobes, is also now signaling its willingness to accept a bigger role for Russia in Armenia and Artsakh -
If Armenia was going to politically cave-in like this after a couple of weeks of warfare - and also begin begging for Russian help - then why
didn't we agree to deploy Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh and handover
the "5 territories" to Baku BEFORE all this
bloodshed and destruction? We had 26 years to settle this matter. If Armenia is doing so well militarily, as we
are constantly being told, then why is it barely over one week into this war
and our nation's leader is talking about "concessions" and not "new territories" as we were
assured prior to the war? And if Armenian forces in Artsakh are not doing so well militarily, then why has Nikol not yet used the full
potential of the Armenian military to turn-the-tide of the war and bring
the war into Azerbaijani territory and force Baku to instead talk about concessions? These are questions that I do not yet have any answers for. For now, what I know for sure is that Nikol and his Soros-financed kindergarten in Yerevan is not who we needed in power in a time of war. Nikol's regime is a liability for not only Armenia but for Artsakh as well. This regime needs to be ousted, and the sooner this is done the better. From the looks of it, Nikol's domestic troubles may have already started - It
obvious, to me at least, that we Armenians have once again fallen
victim to a sinister conspiracy, and the head of that conspiracy inside
Armenia is none-other-than Nikol and of course Levon Petrosyan. I have a
feeling however that none of this will register with a majority
of our sheeple. This is because we Armenians as a people today are severely
dumbed-down, our primal hatred towards the "Karabakh Clan" still clouds our reasoning, and our egos will never allow us to admit fault. But, imagine what would have happened if it was President Sargsyan that
announced to the Armenian world that Yerevan is ready for land concessions
so early in a war and especially after so much blood was spilled. Armenia
would have been turned upside-down by its citizenry, of course incited/goaded
along by the country's Western-financed political forces. To their credit, both presidents Serj Sargsyan and
Robert Kocharyan were able to avoided a war of this scale. They used their time in power to merely prolong the status quo (which was favorable to Armenia) and of course accumulate wealth in the process. Nevertheless, I reiterate:
If we are agreeing to land concession now after so much death and
destruction, why didn't we agree to land concession years ago to AVOID bloodshed
like this in the first place? Was it because both presidents Sargsyan
and Kocharyan were so disliked by a vast majority of Armenians and they
had very little legitimacy and therefore political weight? Was it because both presidents, veterans of
the first war, would not agree to such a plan? Perhaps both.
Nevertheless, ask yourselves: What better person than Nikol - the ultimate "people's choice" - to preside over land concessions?
Simply
put: The "international community" in collaboration with political
forces inside Armenia gave us Nikol in order to make the concept of
land concessions palatable. And if we are indeed going that route, then
what a waste of precious life this war was?!
We needed to do everything in our power to avoid a war of this scale.
I am not a pacifist. I am a realist. I believe that a self-respecting nation must
build a powerful military but it then needs to begin praying every day
it never has to use it. This kind of advice or wisdom is especially
important for a small nation like Armenia. Yes, we need to have a powerful
military because we live in a very dangerous neighborhood. But we must
also do everything in our power, including sometimes taking painful
measures in peace time, to avoid a major war. As
I said, I am very impressed with the
professionalism and fighting spirit of our men and women. But this war
is a tragedy, especially if land concessions will be agreed to
afterwards.
Let
me also remind the reader that this
war is not a video game. We should also not be treating this war as a
sports competition where one enthusiastically keeps score. The
Azeri military is capable and it has a lot of money and resources behind
it. Thank God our soldiers are in defensive positions in
mountains. Artsakh is
indeed a mountain fortress. That said, even if Azerbaijan looses 10 times
more soldiers than us, Armenia/Artsakh will still come out the main
loser after all this. Armenia/Artsakh is a tiny country with a
tiny population with a tiny economy. Thanks to Russia's support, lost military
hardware can be easily replaced, but the large number of lives lost this war is a
tragedy for a small country like ours. Think of each young soldier killed as a family that
will never form. We needed to be politically smart enough and manipulative enough to
avoid a war like this. We knew as far back as 1994 that one day this war would come. We therefore had 26 years to do something about it. As petrodollars poured into Azerbaijan, Baku eagerly embarked on a grand rearmament program. Baku's military potential was gradually building afterwards. In recent more years, we
saw Baku starting a war of attrition against Artsakh. We knew Baku was rapidly bolstering its forces all along the front. We saw the rhetoric coming out of Baku turn
more-and-more warlike. We then saw that in 2016 Baku was ready and willing to
try to resolve the festering dispute through military means. As noted earlier in this commentary, the fighting that took place
on April, 2016 was a trial run, as well as a warning in my opinion.
We knew that a much bigger war was yet to come. We also knew that Moscow wanted to station its
peacekeepers in Artsakh in order to have a more direct, hands-on role in
the strategic and volatile region. We also knew Turkey and Israel wanted to make deeper inroads
in Azerbaijan -
Every time the Kremlin floated the idea of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh, we eagerly shot it down. Instigated
by our Western-financed "nationalists" we essentially turned the term
"Russian peacekeepers" into a racial slur of sorts. We
said to Moscow, thanks but no thanks. We asked Moscow to just guard the
border with Turkey and leave Azerbaijan for us to worry about. To reinforce Artsakh's defenses politically, we instead made "Kill Dim" cartoons. And in doing so we
also made one of the gravest mistakes in war, which is to NEVER
underestimate the enemy. There are two cardinal sins in warfare: The first one is to overestimate your war fighting ability. The second one is to underestimate the enemy's war fighting ability. We even
did our best to insult and disappoint Russian officials (i.e. those who actually make our nation's existence in the south Caucasus possible)
by saturating Armenia with Western organizations, politicians, activists and
agendas.
But ask yourselves: What are the chances that a war like this
would take place if Moscow was in a much more powerful position in the region and if Russian peacekeepers had been stationed between Artsakh and Azerbaijan? In my opinion, very little.
It's difficult to imagine how a war like this could have materialized had
Russia had a military presence in the region. A Russian troop presence in
Artsakh may not have solved the dispute but it could easily have prolonged the "no war, no peace" or rather the status quo for us, which primarily served
our interest. And that would have preserved the precious lives being lost today. Needless to say, Russian boots on the ground in Artsakh would have also satisfied the strategic interests
of our strategic allies in Moscow. Now, not only have we suffered serious losses both in lives and armaments, in the end we will inevitably suffer land
losses as well. We had 26 years to solve this problem. There could
have been an easier, less painful way. We did not seriously explore it, and here
we are today.
At the end of the day, this war happened essentially because both Armenia and Azerbaijan ventured too far from Mother Russia. There
is always a high price to pay for political illiteracy and/or mistakes. We
Armenians in particular have been paying a very high price for our political
illiteracy for the past two thousand years.
As
I said many years ago, we could try to do things the easy way or we can do it
the hard way. Our Western funded/led "nationalists" - namely the so-called
"Sasna Dzrer" terrorist group and its supporters around the world, the
so-called "Armenian Renaissance" and its supporters around the world, Washington's now defunct PFA and its "fellows", Edik Baghdasaryan's Hetq, Hakob Badalyan's Lragir, Vartan Oskanian's Civilnet, Levon Barseghyan's Asbarez journalists club, the late Igor Muradyan, Stepan Vardanyan, Arman Babajanyan, Aleq Yenigomshyan, Ara
Papyan, Daniel Ionisyan, Stepan Safaryan, Anush Sedrakyan, Varujan Avetisyan, Manvel Sargsyan, Arkady Vardanyan, Artur Sahakyan, David Sanasaryan, Paruyr Hayrikyan, Zaruhi Bostanjyan, Artur Sakunts, Tigran Khzmlyan, Shant Voskerichyan, Hranush Kharatyan, Raffi Hovannisyan, Levon
Shirinyan, et al - did their utmost best to sabotage all efforts by
Moscow and Yerevan to deepen their relations and find a least painful solution to this dispute.
The
aforementioned "nationalists" and "patriots" have always been more
concerned about undermining Russia and Moscow's influence in Yerevan and
Stepanakert than actually worrying about Armenia's and Artsakh's security or their future.
We
knew Moscow is or rather should be the alpha and the omega of the south Caucasus, but we
somehow forgot it or simply chose to ignore it. We also knew that while
the Kremlin treated Armenia as a strategic ally, it would also never
risk losing Azerbaijan to Turkey or anyone else. Instead of investing all our national resources inside the Kremlin in an effort to reach a serious deal with Russian officials, regardless of how unsavory it may have been for us, we instead acted condescending towards them; I would even say backstabbing. If the Kremlin was serious about stationing Russian troops in the Artsakh theater, and we know they were, we should have sought ways to allow them. If Moscow could really guarantee peace between Yerevan and Baku in a so-called "land for peace" deal, we should have explored that as well.
Regarding the concept of land for peace, I would like to bring up Israel as an example because I know how we Armenians love to compare ourselves to Jews.
Simply put: If Israel could be made to pull out of lands that is controlled even though they are "Israel" and they were victorious over their enemies, I think so could we. Let's recall that Israel was pressured to make peace with Jordan and Egypt by giving up land ultimately because the Western world did not want to totally trash their ties with the Arab/Muslim world (similar to how Moscow does not want to ruin its ties with Baku). Israel even pulled out of Gaza in 2005 and southern Lebanon in 2000 without any peace negotiations. Moreover, political considerations is also why Tel Aviv has not outright annexed Jewish populated portions of the West Bank. Think of Israel's fertile Golan Heights region, a militarily strategic territory that Tel Aviv will never give up, as Artsakh proper plus the two territories connecting Artsakh to Armenia. Think of the rest of the 5 territories around Artsakh as all the territories Tel Aviv was willing to give up for peace and normalization. If, and I admit that is a big IF, we could have been guaranteed peace, recognition and normalization, I think we should have seriously explored it. At the end of the day, we do not know if we could have reached a mutually beneficial deal with Baku because I don't believe our leaders ever took it into serious consideration. I believe there were times during the past 26 years when Baku may have been open to discuss a mutually beneficial deal. I would like to point out here that the infamous Goble Plan which was put on the table by Washington D.C. in the mid 1990s was beneficial for Baku, but it was suicidal for Armenia. Moreover, the American peace deal by-passed Moscow. The assassination of October 27, 1999 put an end to it.
Whatever peace deal that needed to be made had to be made with Russia (and Iran) and not the West. Moreover, Armenia's strategic border with Iran had to be preserved under all costs. The same applies today.
Once again, allow me remind the reader that Russia is the ONLY
nation on earth that makes Armenia's existence possible.
Despite its "complimentary politics" theatrics we all know that Official Yerevan has NO
real alternatives to Russia. Moreover, besides acting belligerent with
Moscow, a portion of Armenian society acted maximalistic and underestimated not only Baku's
military but also that of Ankara's influence in Baku. Concurrently, another portion of
Armenian society (namely those connected to various Western-financed
NGOs, Nikolites and Levonakans) acted as if Azeris and Turks could
potentially be Armenia's best friends. In short: There was no
clearly defined, Armeno-centric political direction in Yerevan. There was no political vision. There was no
political flexibility. There was no political wisdom. There was no
political foresight. From both ends of the political spectrum in Armenia
we saw mostly rigidity, maximalism, extremism, naivete,
shortsightedness and Turkophilia. In fact, Turks and Azeris even had an easy time of
recruiting agents to work for them inside Armenia. Some of them were revealed. Some of them remain unrevealed.
We
are not a visionary people. When it comes to politics, we are not
farsighted, flexible or manipulative. We instead prefer to boast and
beat our chests, similar to what Arabs and Kurds do.
While we Armenians are a very talented and resilient people, we are also a very emotional people. Emotional minds tend to be rigid. Rigid minds tend to be unimaginative. Armenian
minds therefore tend to be shortsighted and maximalistic. Because we have not yet developed a genuine political elite and also because we are so captivated by gods of Democracy and Capitalism, our collective traits have a negative net-effect on our politics. In a nutshell, that is why although we knew this day was coming we did little if anything to stop it.
Yes, presidents Kocharyan and Sargsyan are also guilty to a significant
degree. Official Yerevan needed to have done everything in its power to encourage a
larger role for Moscow in Artsakh during the past 26 years. I am not
saying this in hindsight, I have been saying this for many years. Mislead and
distracted by our Western-financed "nationalists" we did the opposite. And here we are. Today, Nikol is bringing the project started by Levon in the early 1990s to its logical conclusion.
By keeping Russians out, Armenians had a hand in creating a vacuum that Turks and Israelis filled
Because
of reasons x, y and z, we did not want to see Moscow play a more
hands-on role by putting boots on the ground in Artsakh. Political forces in Armenia as well as in the Diaspora did their best to make sure Yerevan kept Russia out of Artsakh. Not only that, we Armenians also took every opportunity to attack and slander Russian officials for trying to establish good relations with Baku. For years I have been trying to explain to our stubborn peasantry that better relations between Moscow and Baku was actually beneficial for Armenia because its most likely alternative would be better relations between Baku and Ankara.
Numerous self-styled "politicians", "journalists" and "political observers", in other words politically illiterate morons such as Raffi Hovanissian, Richard Giragosian, Jirayr Libaridyan, Arthur Sahakyan, David Boyajian, Jirayr Tutunjian and Edmond Azadian in the North American Diaspora and Western agents in Armenia such as Zaruhi Bostanjyan, Paruyr Hayrikyan, Stepan Safaryan, Varujan Avetisyan, Manvel Sargsyan, Aleq Yenigomshyan, David Sanasaryan, Levon Barseghyan, Ruben Hakhverdyan, Jirayr Sefilyan, Stepan Vardanyan, Arman Babajanyan, Vahe Gasparyan, Ara Papyan, Artur Sakunts, Arkady Vardanyan, Anush Sedrakyan, Hakob Badalyan, Garegin Chukazyan, Levon Shirinyan, Daniel Ionisyan, Hranush Kharatyan, et al, did their utmost best to misrepresent, criticize and attack Moscow for trying to develop better relations with Baku - when it was in Armenia's long-term strategic interests to have Moscow develop leverage over Baku. There were voices that tried to reassure Armenians that close relations between Moscow and Baku actually served Armenia's interests, Armenia's peasantry however would have none of it. All these factors helped create a vacuum.
And, as we are now seeing, this
vacuum was filled not by "truth, justice and the American way", which
is what many Armenians were actually hoping for as a hedge against
what is seen as Russia's "overbearing influence" inside Armenia, the vacuum was instead filled by Erdogan's Islamic mercenaries and
Israel's military industrial complex. The signs however were there all-along. We knew Baku was actively flirting with Ankara and Tel Aviv. We knew Turkey wanted to cause trouble for Russia. We knew Israel wanted to cause trouble for Iran. We also knew that the Turkish military was deployed in Nakhijevan. Men like President Robert Kocharyan and Menua Harutunyan were warning Armenian society about a growing Turkish threat to Armenia and Artsakh and the strategic importance of Russian-Armenian relations merely days before the war erupted -
How could our leadership not understand that Artsakh faced a threat not only
from Baku but also from Ankara and Tel Aviv? How could our leadership not see that
the United States has for the most part been absent and/or impotent in
the south
Caucasus, starting at least as far back as the summer of 2008? By sabotaging efforts by Moscow to introduce a Russian military presence in the Artsakh theater, Official Yerevan played a role, however big or small, in creating a strategic
vacuum in the south Caucasus. This vacuum inevitably allowed Turkey and Israel to set deeper roots in Azerbaijan.
In my opinion, President Serj Sargsyan gets the brunt of the blame in this regard for it was during
his time in office when the issue of Russian peacekeepers kept being
brought-up in public, only to be shot-down each and every time. To be fair, however, President Sargsyan did not
have the political legitimacy or the public support to accept such a proposal by
the Kremlin, especially since, as noted above, the concept of Russian
peacekeepers was already turned into a bad word inside Armenian society by
our Western-financed traitors posing as "nationalists". In other words, while
we were too busy trying to appease the Western world - of course to
show the Kremlin that Armenia had "options" when everyone, including Kremlin, knew Yerevan did
not - it was Ankara and Tel Aviv that actually took the strategic initiative
by increasing its presence in Azerbaijan. While some of us were
fantasizing about beating Azerbaijan all by ourselves and some of us
were fantasizing about embracing Azerbaijan, it was Ankara that took
the initiative by moving in and fanning the flames of war among
Azerbaijan's
political establishment. This was a consequence of our lack of vision and foresight in politics, as well as our "complimentary politics".
Consequently,
Erdogan's Turkey has just upped-the-ante in the south Caucasus just as
it has been doing in northern Iraq, northern Syria, Libya, Cyprus and the Greek islands. Needless to say, Israel is also trying to establish a footing there as well. Both Russia and Iran, already embroiled in a number of serious endeavors, are now in a predicament. President Putin already made a statement about the instability being brought near its borders. Konstantin Zatulin, the Russian head of the CIS, warned Russia will go through Georgia, despite Tbilisi's blockade, to provide military assistance to Armenia if needed. And Tehran has begun deploying military units near its border with Armenia and Azerbaijan -
What Erdogan is doing in the south Caucasus, Russia's backyard, is a very high-stakes gamble. Ankara is clearly maneuvering to open a new front with which it thinks it can attain leverage over Russia and Iran. Needless to say, Anglo-American-Jews are excited. They are also doing their best to spread disinformation. That excitement however may be short-lived. Depending on the reactions from Moscow and Tehran, as well as the performance of Armenian troops on the battlefield, Erdogan's ambitious plan can potentially backfire on both Ankara and Baku. Needless to say, this was a high stakes gamble for Aliyev as well. By allowing such Wahhabist-Islamic militants from the Middle East into Shiite and secular Azerbaijan, Baku is not only damaging its relations with Moscow it is also sowing domestic troubles. Aliyev in particular is now in a very precarious position. In a sense, it is a "do or die" situation for him. Nevertheless, Moscow and Tehran are currently in somewhat of a political and military predicament which, as I have already mentioned, Armenian officials going as far back as Levon Petrosyan had a hand in creating. Needless to say, Georgia has been the biggest problem in this regard. As if they do not have enough things to worry about, Moscow and Tehran now have to preoccupy themselves with a serious war raging in the south Caucasus. Let's remember that a Russian predicament in the south
Caucasus is a danger first and foremost to Armenia, not Russia. Let's also remember that any weakening of the Russian factor in the south Caucasus is first and foremost a danger to Armenia, not Russia. We as a people should have learned this lesson one hundred years go. What's more, this conflict also has the potential to bring Russia out of its neutral position vis-à-vis Yerevan and Baku. I am not sure if that is actually a good thing in the long term. We need more Russian leverage over Baku, not Turkish.
One of Armenia's core national interests needs to be to always secure a favorable position for Russia in the south Caucasus, regardless of how unsavory it may at times be, because its alternative would pose an existential threat to Armenia's security. I reiterate: Without a strong Russian presence in the south Caucasus, without closer Russian-Armenian relations, the region has the natural tendency to revert back to being a Turkic and/or Islamic cesspool. Armenia's "independence" from Russia will by-default make it dependent on Turkey. Now you know in a nutshell why our "nationalists" and our Westernizers have been preaching Armenian independence from Russia. I am glad that calls to bring Armenia closer to Russia has already started -
Gurgen Yeghyazaryan is a serious man and he is one of the main representatives of the Russian camp in Armenian politics. He is basically calling on Armenia today to unite with Russia. This means the process back to Mother Russia, perhaps in some federation format, has start. I thought such calls were still far into the future. Had I heard this call in my youth I would have gone into an angry rage. Today, after 30 years of one disappointment after another, one bad government after another, one war after another, one revolution after another, cultural decline, population decline, economic decline, educational decline, etc. I can't say I am not very happy. Armenia devolved/degraded severely during the past 30 years. Encouraged along by Western agents in our society, the country's great Russian/Soviet heritage was squandered, wasted and essentially turned into rust and dust. Armenia today is gradually turning into a third world cesspool in front of our eyes. Classical Armenian and classical European culture is not only dying in post-Soviet Armenia, it is actually being replaced by Afro-American and Turco-Kurdish elements. At the end of the day, we need to remember who our neighbors are. Let's remember where the south Caucasus is located. Let's remember that we have longstanding, historic disputes within our neighborhood. Let's for once also come to the realization that without a strong Russian presence in south Caucasus, the entire region in question has the natural predisposition/tendency to turn into a Turkic and/or Islamic cesspool. Despite our best efforts, Armenia, on its own, will NOT find peace, stability or prosperity. In a landscape where the Russian factor is not very powerful, Armenia will at best continue barely surviving and periodically facing wars.
As a nationalist, Armenia's long-term health and well-being are my main concerns. I therefore look forward to some form of merger with the Russian nation, albeit with conditions: Armenia keeps its national language, its alphabet and its armed forces. If we can maintain our national culture and our military, I wholeheartedly welcome any form of union with the Russian nation. At the end of the day, Armenia belongs in the Russian world politically, economically, militarily and CULTURALLY. Armenia long-term health and well-being as a nation and as a culture depends on it.
Russia remains Armenia's one and only ally in this world
Getting back to the war: Predictably, our professional Russophobes today (as well as mindless idiots who parrot them) are now cynically asking: Why isn't Putin's Russia helping Armenia and Artsakh? In other words, those that have done their best to drive a wedge between Russia and Armenia, and in the process ruined Armenia from a civilizational/cultural standpoint during the past 30 years, are now in-effect mocking Armenia's and Artsakh's core security interests. A more apt question would be, why isn't Armenia using all its military capability to defend Artsakh? That said, our professional Russophobes are right in that due to a number of geopolitical factors Russia will not get directly involved in the war in Artsakh. Russia has a defense pact with Armenia, not Artsakh. There was never any illusion about this. Had Artsakh been annexed by Armenia back in 1994 it may have been a different story today, but it was not. Had Russian troops been stationed in Artsakh it may have been a different story, but they were not. Artsakh is therefore Armenia's fight. We all knew this. That is in fact how WE wanted it. Moreover, Russia has normal relations with Baku. Moreover, Russia is in the OSCE Minsk Group and has to therefore maintain an appearance of neutrality. Nevertheless, what our professional Russophobes don't tell us is that Moscow is supplying Armenia's armed forces the advanced weaponry and the ammunition that it needs to fight a large-scale conventional war like this. Needless to say, a lot of this help is indeed reaching Artsakh. What our professional Russophobes also don't tell us is that without such help, Armenians would not be able to resist a major conventional war like this. What our professional Russophobes also don't tell us is that other than Russia there is no power on earth that is ready, willing or able to supply Armenia is low cost (and sometimes free) modern weapons systems. The following is a look at the nature of Russian support Armenia has been receiving just in recent weeks - Equally important, by guarding Armenia's frontier with Turkey, Moscow provides the Armenian
military the freehand to concentrating all its effort on fighting
Azerbaijan, which is comparatively the lesser threat. That Yerevan may not be using its full potential to help Artsakh in this war is all-together another story. In any case, as the reader can see, Moscow is very much
involved in this fight, albeit behind-the-scenes and indirectly. Yet, Armenians will be still asking where is Russia? And anti-Armenian interests around the world will be exploiting the matter by muddying the water -
Again, Moscow
will not send its troops to fight alongside Armenians in Artsakh as the territory does not directly fall under Russia's protection. Had
Armenian officials annexed Artsakh in the early 1990s, perhaps it would
have been a
different story today. Had Artsakh been made part of Armenia soon after
Baku capitulated in 1994, at the very least, Armenia would be forced to
use all its military potential to protect the territory today. The Battle for Artsakh itself has to be therefore fought by us Armenians, not Russians. Unless we Armenians want to
join ethic Russians in their fight against Ukraine in the Donbass, we
have no right to ask Russians to fight for us in Artsakh. That said, without Russian support behind-the-scenes, Armenia and Artsakh
would have collapsed within a week or two into this war.
Despite Nikol's populistic bluster, despite
him publicly announcing that Artsakh is Armenian (essentially asking Baku to attack), Nikol's regime has not yet seriously considered officially recognizing Artsakh's independence. It may still happen, but no signs of it yet. The signs we do see from Nikol's regime revolve around its willingness to make concessions, nothing else. Nikol's regime is doing everything possible NOT to win this war.
This is a historic opportunity to recognize Artsakh
Speaking
of annexation and recognition, allow me to also say this: In the past,
presidents Kocharyan and Sargsyan both avoided recognizing Artsakh's
independence or annexing it in order to avoid a war. At the very least, that was the official excuse. It did make sense. Yerevan at
the time understood that any attempts to recognize or annex Artsakh would likely trigger a war
with Baku. Armenia did not want to go that route. A war was avoided. The status quo was maintained. Foreign funded/led extremist groups such as "Sasna Dzrer", as well as certain "nationalist" circles inside Armenian society, called on Yerevan
to officially recognize or annex Artsakh NOT for sake of Armenian
nationalism per se, but to undermine the Russian administered status quo and
therefore weaken Moscow's position in the region. The reader may recall that in 2015 Sasna Dzrer even tried to bring a color revolution of sorts to Artsakh but failed. I am not talking about genuine but politically naive nationalists, I am instead talking about professional agents seeking to sabotage Russian-Armenian relations under the guise of Armenian nationalism. Incidentally,
similar considerations during the Cold War saw Western intelligence support nationalistic movements
inside Soviet Armenia as well as other Soviet republics. It was naturally done to
help facilitate the collapse the Soviet Union and not because
Anglo-American-Jews really cared much about Armenian nationalism.
In
any case, now that the war we were all waiting for but hoped to avoid has started, our
so-called leadership in Yerevan should bring it to its logical conclusion. In
other words, Nikol's regime needs to respond to Baku's full-scale
military aggression against Artsakh by quickly recognizing Artsakh's
independence or simply annex it. What will Azerbaijan do, start a war?!
It
can't get any worst than this. Turkey will NOT open a front from its
territory because doing so will surely bring Russia and perhaps Iran into the fight.
Turks are aggressive but they are not stupid. A full-scale war with Azerbaijan is therefore as
bad as it can get, and we are right in the middle of one right now.
Therefore, it is high time for Yerevan to recognize Artsakh's
independence or simply annex the territory. This is the BEST opportunity we have
had in this regard since 1994. I reiterate: For the past 20-plus years
Official Yerevan refrained from recognizing Artsakh simply to avoid a
major war. Now, no such restraining factor exists. Not recognizing Artsakh in 1994 was as a major mistake. However, now that Baku has started a war not recognizing Artsakh today, and providing it with better military means to defend itself, can only be called CRIMINAL and TREASONOUS. It has been a little over two weeks since this war started. Why isn't Nikol's government recognizing Artsakh? Didn't Nikol publicly claim "Artsakh is Armenia" one years ago? By saying what
he said he essentially opened the door to the resumption of hostilities. Moreover, didn't Nikol's defense minister publicly claim "new war new territories"?
Well, the war we were trying to avoid all these years is now fully upon us. As of this writing, Armenia has NOT yet used its full military potential to protect Artsakh, ostensibly because Armenia does not have a "defense pact" with Artsakh similar to what Armenia has with Russia. Let's put all the diplomatic/political bullshit aside and get down to business. Artsakh's life is at stake. The lives of tens-of-thousands of Armenians are at stake. This is a historic moment for Armenia, and the LAST thing we Armenians needed was a "commander-in-chief" who was a Western-financed opposition journalist, a liberal/globalist, one of Levon Petrosyan's activists and one who also avoided military service in this youth. Basing my opinion on Nikol's character and pedigree, I do not believe he is ready to recognize or annex Artsakh. Instead, Nikol, like
his spiritual father, Levon, will most probably put Artsakh on the
auction floor in the aftermath of this war - IF - political forces inside Armenia do not rise up against him.
There is yet another geopolitical nuance that I would like to add here. If in the past Moscow did
its best to stop the resumption of a major war and maintain the status quo in the territory because Armenia closely
cooperated with the Kremlin, that factor no longer exists today. After Nikol's rise to power, after Armenia getting saturated by Western activists with a clear anti-Russian bent, Moscow no longer has the reason or the motivation to do
Armenia any extra flavors like maintaining the status quo a few more years. We may therefore see Moscow allow this fight in
Artsakh reach a critical point and then come in and clean-up the mess. In
other words, at least on the surface, because Armenians/Armenia proved to be politically incompetent, unreliable and
problematic for Kremlin officials, Moscow may allow Armenian noses to get bloodied somewhat to teach us a lesson in politics (the punishment I speculated was coming), and then
simply step-in to secure its interests. This is also an opportunity for Moscow to show-off its CSTO. This, in a nutshell, is why I kept saying the Kremlin is taking a step back and allowing us to soil ourselves with our pro-Western tendencies. In other words, they were allowing us the proverbial hanging rope because for our Western fetish.
Potentially, Moscow can gain a lot from the current war, as Russians are the maters of not letting any crisis go to waste. In
the big picture, however, let's never lose sight of the fact that
ultimately this war was brought to us by Nikol's NED and Soros funded
regime. The Kremlin is merely doing its best, as it always does, to
manipulate and exploit the situation to its benefit. Let's also understand that this war happened ultimately because Armenia ventured too far from the Bear protection.
As
expected, the cost for this war has indeed been heavy for both sides,
and we are not even three weeks into it. As noted earlier in this commentary, the fundamental
concern here is that Azerbaijan can afford the high price. A little over two weeks into this war, Armenian forces in Artsakh have already suffered thousands of casualties. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of armaments have been destroyed. Significant amounts of territory has been lost, especially in the southern districts along the Iranian border. We do not yet know the actual extent of the territorial loses but some estimate suggest 400 square kilometers. For whatever
reason Armenia is not yet using its full war fighting potential to repel Azeri forces. The
longer Armenian forces wait to counterattack, the more difficult it will be
to dislodge Azeri forces from the territories they have taken. Moreover, Armenian forces are not yet making any efforts to bring the war into Azerbaijan's territory, as was promised. The Israeli and Turkish made combat drones Baku is using against Artsakh is taking a heavy toll on Armenian forces. At the current pace, that is with Armenia staying out of the war, if
this war is not stopped in the next few weeks, Artsakh will lose of more territory. Artsakh's
resources are limited and our soldiers there are human; there is only so
much they are able to take. Thus far, Nikol has done everything a "commander-in-chief" would do NOT to win a war like this.
Geopolitics is a game of chess, and we Armenians did our best not to be one of the players
From the great German military theorist, Carl von Clausewitz, we know that war is an extension of politics by other means. In other words, war is a result of political calculation. We also need to understand that geopolitics, the geographic inter-national manifestation of politics, is at its core a chess game. As in chess, there
are players, there are proxies (i.e. game pieces) and there is a board or rather a geographic territory where the competition is played-out. Nations can be part of the
competition as players or they can be part of the competition as game piece or proxies. The Artsakh conflict is similarly a chess game. However, the
players are not actually Armenia and Azerbaijan. The players instead are Russia, Iran,
Turkey and Anglo-American-Jewish interests. Simply put, this is because both Yerevan and Baku were unable to
settle their differences and fully merge with Mother Russia during the past 26 years. Consequently, Armenians and Azerbaijanis are merely the chess
pieces today, and the territory of Artsakh is unfortunately the bloody chessboard.
Instead of doing our best to merge with one of the main players of the game, we did the exact opposite. We deliberately put ourselves in a position where we
are merely one of the game pieces. Worst, we turned our lands into the chessboard or the
field of play.
Two thousand years ago our forefathers did the
same. Armenia was turned into a battlefield between the East and West of that time (i.e. Rome and Persia). Armenia was ravaged for hundreds of
years as a result. Our forefathers at the time kept allowing themselves
to be placed in the great geopolitical competition of the time not as
players but as game pieces. Tragically, Armenia was the field of play. Moreover, throughout our history, our forefathers were constantly looking to distant lands for Armenia's salvation, all the while ignoring Armenia's
neighborhood, and in some cases even turning our neighbors against us. Like father, like son. It's the same situation today. We ignore our natural friends like Russia and Iran, and we instead seek salvation from the Western world. In the
big picture, this political cognative dissonance of ours is why we now live on only 10% of our historic
territory. It is why we were stateless for almost one thousand years. It is why we suffered a genocide. And it is also why Armenia today is in a
decline once again.
If we want to be one of the players instead of the one being played, the ONLY option we have as a people is closer cooperation/collaboration with the Russian Federation (in whatever form). And if we don't want closer union with Russia, then we will remain one of the chess pieces as we are now, and we will therefore continue experiencing tragedies from time-to-time.
If geopolitics and one of its manifestations, war, is indeed a chess game, then soldiers, unfortunately, are the pawns. The loss of every single Armenian life, especially those that have not
yet formed families, is a tragedy. Armenia is a tiny enclave of 2.5 million people in
a vast sea of Turkic/Islam. Each dead young
soldier is a family that will never form. During the first war in
the early 1990s, most of the fighters were middle aged men. Most of them already had children. Today, most of the deaths on the battlefield are 20 year old, single men. Thus far, around over 1000 families will never
form. The longer this war takes, the higher will this number get. It's depressing just to think about it. That said, we need to realize that a nation that is incapable
or unwilling to shed the blood of its youth in a defensive war will not enjoy or
rather does not deserve statehood. In the big picture, this is
what geopolitics is all about. This is how major nations operate. We
wanted independence, we got it. Now, we have to fight for it. We are in
the "big leagues" now as they say. If we want to have statehood, we need
to be part of the game, and the game calls for sacrificing your young.
It sounds evil and barbaric, and it is. But, on earth, this is how
humanity developed from the beginning. Let's not forget that this is the devil's
world.
The
price for political illiteracy is very high. Anglo-American-Jewish
influences are deeply corrosive. We are suffering greatly because of our
political illiteracy and our love for all things western. The most worrying part is the realization that very few people in today's dumbed-down Armenian society understands any of this. We therefore will continue paying a high price. Politically,
economically, genetically, culturally, etc., we Armenians belong to the
East, to Russia in particular. We as a people desperately need to understand this at a deep
level. The only way we can be in the players club so to speak is if
we unite with the Russian nation. But if we want to go it alone and be
part of the geopolitical game as game pieces, then we need to understand
that this is how it will be from time to time. Men like Gurgen Yeghyazaryan and Zori
Balayan understand history and they understand the nature of the game.
Their calls for closer union with Russia is actually a
nationalistic/patriotic call. In my oinion, as long as Armenia is allowed to keep its
language/alphabet and some form of a military, I don't care what form the union
in question looks like. In any case, I hope we as a people have finally learned the lesson that we cannot rely on the Western world for anything, let alone military help in times of war.
The evil empire remains all talk and no action
There may very well be a Satanic and/or a Kabbalistic component to what's going on as well. We all know that Hollywood is one of the world's centers of Satanism and Kabbalism. The following decoding of "Lady Gaga's" mysterious music video featuring Armenian motifs was posted 2 days before the war. In the explanation, disregard the fire at Yerevan's annual Film Festival. The fire in question is currently burning in Artsakh -
Speaking of Satanism and Kabbalism, I would also like to make a point about mainstream news media in the United States. This is one of the biggest conventional wars in recent history, and it holds within it the potential to turn into a world war, and yet the news media in the United States is virtually silent. In a big SCREW YOU! to our pro-American idiots, there is a virtual blackout in American news media about the war. We all know that if a homeless dog gets abused somewhere in the world, it quickly becomes major news in the United States. Apparently, Armenians are considered less than homeless dogs in eyes of Uncle Sam. In fact, Washington DC and London have also been silent. Imagine how much noise Western politicians and their news media organs would make if a single homosexual had gotten beaten-up in Artsakh. Also consider how intense the Anglo-American-Jewish coverage has been of the Syrian war - of course on the side of Turkish-backed Islamic/Wahhabist terrorists. We all know that Anglo-American-Jewish interests, Turkish interests and Islamist-Wahhabist interests have complimented each other for a very long time. And we all known that money talks in a cesspool like Washington DC - No matter how one looks at it, this is clearly a slap in the face by Anglo-American-Jews that Armenia's Westernizers and Russophobes fully deserve. Yes, we all know the cabal that controls the news media, the entertainment industry and politics in the Western world, particularly in the United States. Regardless of who controls what, I say screw the American empire. Rejoice in the knowledge that the Satanic/Kabbalist empire is slowly dying. Once the big Satan dies, the little ones in Europe in the Middle East will die as well. Therefore, we all need to embrace Blacks and Hispanics, as they are doing God's work. And in a big SCREW YOU! to our equally stupid pro-European Armenians, our European Union and NATO partners have been missing in action as well; but Armenian troops will still continue enthusiastically conducting military drills with them -
Many American-Armenians are having a collective orgasm because President Trump sort of knows what an Armenian is -
And as for our Greek friends: Well, we can at least rejoice in the knowledge that candy from Greece are now reaching the frontlines in Artsakh -
The great shock to many Armenians here is, how could the United States and the European Union ignore Armenia's current plight when Armenia is now a "Democratic" country, a country that is also now trying very hard to be a "pluralistic" country. Not to mention, Yerevan now enjoys "high ratings" in various Western indexes!!! How could this be?!?!?! How could our favorite people favor a Dictatorship over a Democracy? -
What a bunch of idiots we are. About ten years ago, now CIA pension-recipient Paruyr Hayrikyan was advising Armenians that if Armenia became "Democratic" then and only then would Uncle Sam send its "aircraft carriers" to protect Armenia in case the dictatorship in Baku started a war. Throughout his life this mentally disturbed yet highly respected champion of Armenia's independence from the Soviet Union was also trying to convince us Armenians that "Russians are worst than Turks". Here is the mentally ill former CIA operative in 2011 warning Armenians that Armenia needs to become Democratic if Armenians want military help from the United States in time of war -
Paruyr Hayrikyan - Pastark Akumb part 1
Paruyr Hayrikyan - Pastark Akumb part 2
The good news is, Cold War dinosaurs like Paruyr Hayrikyan are no longer relevant in Armenia. The bad news is, the problem Armenia has today is the new regime. Nikol's
government has saturated Armenia with agents and activists that are directly and/or indirectly working not only for Anglo-American-Jews but also for Turks and Azeris. This subversion runs through all layers
of Armenian society, not just the government. Armenia's official television
and radio stations continue to have an unmistakably clear Western-bent
in all their programming. Their focus continues to remain on North
America and Western Europe. Their interviews and discussions continue
featuring large numbers of anti-Russian activists posing "historians", "experts", "political observers" etc., as well as other Western
grant recipients. Armenia Fund (Հայաստան Համահայկական Հիմնադրամ)
is similarly hijacked. Foremost, I want to say that I have already made
a significant contribution to the organization, and I recommend
everyone reading this, friend and foe alike, do the same. That said, I
want the reader to also know that the Nikol appointed head of the
organization is none-other-than Haykak Arshamyan, a pseudo-historian, a
fake nationalist and a well known anti-Russian activist. Under this Hay-kak character, the organization is intentionally belittling, ignoring and misrepresenting our largest and most affluent Diaspora, the two-plus million strong Russian-Armenian community. I have
written about this Hay-kak in this blog in the past. Read the following 2011 article appearing in one of the most prolific anti-Russian propaganda outlets in Armenian society, Lragir, which should instead be called Լրա-կլիր, to have a better understanding of who Nikol
appointed as head of something as important as Armenia Fund -In
a state of total war and desperately dependent on Russia for survival,
Armenia's regime continues to do its best appeal to the Western
world. If these people are not traitors, how can they be so damn stupid? Treason and stupidity has always ran deep in Armenian politics. As expected, Nikol's "Democratic" and even "homo friendly" Armenia has completely and utterly failed to impress Anglo-American-Jews. Congratulations to all "Velvet revolutionaries"! Is this why we have been totally trashing Armenian culture as well as the great heritage left to us by Armenia's Russian and Soviet periods for the past 30 years? This is why we have been persistently turning our backs to Russia, the only country on earth that makes our existence possible in a Turkic/Islamic cesspool like the south Caucasus? Is this why we have for the most part ignored our most reliable neighbor, Iran? BBC and Radio Liberty (Armenia's most popular news media) not only can they not even say the "G" word, they cannot even apparently get themselves to unequivocally say Azerbaijani forces shelled the Armenian cathedral at Shushi -
Notice the concise wording on the report put out by Russia's RT -
What we are seeing take place in Artsakh is a historic war. What we are seeing is also a war of civilizations, even if BBC or CNN of Fox refuses to properly cover it. This war will reveal who are Armenia's friends and who are Armenia's enemies. This war will also reveal even to the most stupid Armenian alive today where Armenia's core security interests lie. Let's once again recall that Armenia is dependent on Russia economically and militarily. Armenia's is also dependent on Russia for all its energy needs. Russia guards Armenia's border with Turkey, allowing Armenia to concentrate its resources on countering the threat from Azerbaijan. Moreover, Russia hosts the world's largest and most affluent Armenian Diaspora. Simply put: Russia makes Armenia's existence possible in an impossible region of the world. Other than Armenians, Russia is also the ONLY nation on earth that is ready, willing and able to shed the blood of its soldiers for Armenia's territorial integrity. Armenia cannot afford flirting with Western powers anymore. Western powers and their toxic culture have proven corrosive for Armenia during the post-Soviet era. Armenia is suffering a cultural/civilizational decline as a result. Armenia cannot be allowed to venture too far from the Bear's presence.
The South Caucasus is too violent. Armenia
cannot go on like this. As long as pan-Turkism and Islamic Wahhabism/Salafism continues to exist in the south Caucaus, Armenia will not be able to develop or prosper. The country will never become a haven for Armenians worldwide. After this round of bloodshed, the primal hate that
currently exists between Armenians, Azeris and Turks will only
increase. One seldom sees the kind of deep rooted barbaric hate that currently
exists
between Armenians and Azeris. Watching this war has been like watching gore porn. Showcasing corpses of soldiers fallen on both sides have been a big part of this war. One seldom sees this kind of hate and cruelty. What hapened to our humanity? What happened to a soldier's honor? I didn't expect this by Armenians. It's as if this war has suddenly sucked the humanity out of us. I don't care if the other side acts like barbarians. I also don't care if the other side started it. We are not,
or rather should not, be like them. All this is very concerning as it does not bode
well for the future. This amount of hate will carry forward for generations to come. Let's not forget that we are neighbors. Even if the war is stopped now, the hate will continue, the calls
for revenge will continue, and there will eventually be another war. We can't live
like
this.
A
remote, tiny, impoverished and landlocked Armenia will not survive very long
in this kind of climate. If Armenia is not placed FULLY under the
Russian umbrella (in whichever form), we can lose the country within our
lifetimes. We seriously need to start thinking about Armenia's long-term
prospects in the south Caucasus after this war ends.
Ultimately, this war was made possible because Armenia ventured too far from the Russian Bear. This war is proof that Armenia has made itself vulnerable in front of the region's predators because Armenian officials did not have the wisdom or foresight to increase Russia's presence not only in inside Armenia but also in Artsakh. This war is proof that Armenia needs a larger Russian presence. This war is proof that Armenia cannot survive in the south Caucasus without Russia. This war is proof that Armenian politics/diplomacy has utterly failed the country. This war could have been avoided, or at the very least it could have been delayed a few more years as we continued to bolster Artsakh's defenses. Nikol's ominous rise to power in
2018 and his machinations behind-the-scenes made this war imminent. Despite their sins, both real and perceived, both presidents Kocharyan and Sargsyan avoided a destructive war like this. Now,
we have a very serious situation on our hands and, in my opinion, our
Western-financed "nationalists" and "revolutionaries" have the blood of Armenian soldiers
on their hands.
Nikol must now be pressured to do three things
Nikol is a cunning scoundrel. Armenians, generally speaking, are idiots when it comes to politics. This war is why Nikol is in power today. Because he enjoys the people's trust, he can therefore easily deceive, mislead and betray without much effort. Bare in mind that before being put into power, Nikol was actually quite anti-Russian. He was part of the agenda that created and propagated the slur "Karabakh Clan". He also expressed the desire to return Artsakh controlled territories back to Azerbaijan. Just before this war, Nikol was actually also quite pro-Turkish/Azeri. He unconditionally wanted to open the borders with Turkey. He publicly announced Aliyev was an "educated man". He was apparently also holding secret meetings with Aliyev. Nikol persecuted war prominent war veterans like Kocharyan and Khachaturov. He put a lot of pressure on the "yerkrapah" war veterans union. His wife was even publicly lamenting the deaths of Azeri soldiers. Nikol's government was until the very start of this war actively preaching pacifism, demilitarization, liberalism, homosexuality, multiculturalism, globalism, etc. They were shutting down nationalistic programs. And, in true neo-Bolshevik form, they were also going after the Church and its leadership.
Now, because a major war has started and hundreds of Armenians have died defendiong Artsakh, Nikol and friends have suddenly changed their tune. These NED and Soros funded neo-Bolsheviks are suddenly sounding nationalistic. In my opinion, Nikol and company are saying the right things to save their skin. Nikol in particular knows that he can get killed if he says or does something that may cause the sheeple to wake-up and see who he really is. Moreover, he still needs to maintain the people's trust if he is to bring them to the next, negotiations phase. Nikol is therefore very cleverly managing this war. He will also look to blame Russia for all his failures and setbacks after this war. In my opinion, Nikol was preparing for it during the past two years. Two years ago Nikol preemptively began blaming Russia for future setbacks in
Artsakh. On more than one occasion Nikol insinuated that a major
military attack against Artsakh by Azerbaijan will ultimately be
Russia's fault because Moscow is the only power that can stop Baku -
Russia Can Prevent Karabakh War, Says Pashinian
And then, Nikol suddenly turned around and basically provoked a war with Baku -
Armenia’s prime minister controversially declared that “Karabakh is Armenia - period”
In
American idiom, Nikol was basically "preparing his field of play" and
of course "covering his ass". Nikol was meticulously preparing Armenians
for today's setbacks in Artsakh, which, as noted above, he and his
Western financed agents will blame on Russia. I therefore expect serious internal problems in Armenia after this war ends. So, the nightmare may not end when the
war ends. In any case, we need to disregard what this cunning street scoundrel, who made a living via the NED and who worked for Levon Petrosyan, is saying in public and just keep an eye on what he is doing. And what he is doing thus far is very little.
It has been a little over two weeks since the fighting started and the full potential of Armenia's military has not yet been deployed in defense of Artsakh. It has been about three weeks into this war and no serious effort is yet being made by Armenia's defense ministery to neutralize the deadly drone threat over Artsakh. No effort has yet been made to bring the war into Azerbaijan. Ganja's oil/gas pipelines, Baku's life force, have not yet been bombed. Artsakh is being forced to fight strictly a defensive war and without significant participation of Armenia's armed forces. Thus far, we have many hundreds of dead, throusands of wounded and Artsakh has lost significant amount of territory in the south. If Armenia does not recognize Artsakh's independence and begins directly assisting in its defense, we can potentially suffer a major defeat in the coming weeks. Therefore, we are at a point where true patriots need to pressure the Nikol regime to do 3 fundamental things:
1) Recognize or annex Artsakh
2) Provide direct military assistance to Artsakh
3) Call in the Russians if the war continues to escalate
We must never lose sight of the fact that Nikol is Levon Petrosyan's acolyte. Levon's
entire political existence in Armenia has always revolved around settling the Artsakh
dispute in accordance with the wishes of the "international community". Let us also not forget the kind of neo-Bolshevik/neo-Marxist trash Nikol brought into Armenia's government in an effort to initially convince us Armenians that Azeris and Turks are our potential friends. Nikol was chosen for this day in
history. He will be given more tasks to carry through after this war is over. We therefore need to pay close attention not to his words but to his actions in the coming weeks and months. And we need to hope that there are political forces inside Armenia that can mitigate the danger emanating from today's regime in Yerevan.
Nations wage war when they assess that their opponent is weak
Every single ruling administration Armenia
has had during the past 30 years betrayed Artsakh in one form or another. However,
the first regime (which started the road we are on today) and the
current regime (which is bringing it to its logical conclusion) are MOST
at fault. Kocharyan and Sargsyan merely did their best to prolong the
status quo (that is the best that can be said about them) and of course
accumulate wealth in the process. EVERY setback in Artsakh today is
ultimately Nikol's fault because he is the one in power today, not Sargsyan, not Kocharyan. And since Nikol is
also the so-called "people's choice", the so-called "people" is also at fault to a certain
degree. This is why I say Nikol's (and Levon's) supporters now have the blood of Armenian soldiers on their hands. At the end of all this, those in power today and their degenerate
supporters will try to put all the blame on Putin, on Russia, on
"Serjik", or on "Robik". They will blame everyone but
themselves.
Nations
go to
war when they sense weakness in their opponent. Nations wage war when
they have assessed that they have the advantage over their opponent. All in all,