Mikhail Saakashvili's government
had been growing very unpopular in Georgia in recent years, despite the
tens-of-billions of dollars that had been pumped into the regime's
coffers to keep it afloat. Therefore, sooner-or-later, as in Ukraine,
as in Kyrgyzstan, as in Serbia, the Georgian state would have to experience a counter-color revolution as well.
Struck by a serious prison abuse scandal that saw hundreds-of-thousands of Georgians taking to the streets in major protests across Georgia last month, and faced with the possibility of a popular up-rising against the Western-Zionist-Turkish backed regime in Tbilisi, officials of Saakashvili's ruling party (perhaps with Western advise) seem to have reluctantly accepted their defeat in this week's parliamentary elections. It now looks as if Saakashvili had in fact no choice in the matter. He had to either concede defeat to a very popular and powerful adversary, or watch his Western-style dictatorship masquerading as a democracy descend into bloody chaos.
How would that have looked for the West's favorite pet project in the Caucasus?
By allowing billionaire Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream coalition to claim the parliament, Saakashvili, still the generalissimo of Georgia, seems to have won some time for himself.
Known for being the richest Georgian in the world, the multi-billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili is a shrewd yet charismatic man who made his billions in the Russian Federation during the wild 1990s. More importantly, Ivanishvili has been publicly calling for better relations with Moscow. Ivanishvili's call to political sanity in Tbilisi was what prompted Saakashvili to claim that he was a "Russian agent" and that Georgia's political opposition was serving Russian interests. Despite Saakashvili's best efforts, which naturally included intimidation and oppressive tactics, a new era seems to be finally dawning in Georgia.
Having said that, it should also be emphasized that it is too early to make any concrete forecasts regarding changes in Tbilisi's political tastes. Only time will reveal what direction Ivanishvili's victory will take Georgia.
In the meanwhile, we can only watch, speculate and hope.
Expect to see an army of Western political activists and propagandists masquerading as journalists and political analysts systematically begin their verbal gymnastics and political spin. The West will attempt to present this apparent setback in Georgia as a victory for "western democracy"; as they gather behind closed doors to figure out how to salvage Saakashvili's regime.
I have no doubt that the following months will see the tie-eating dictator's government scrambling to find ways to maintain its iron-grip over the strategically situated south Caucasus nation. Let's be mindful of the fact that Saakashvili is still the president for the next year and his henchmen still control the nation's police force, the military and its interior ministry. And of course, American, European, Turkish and Israeli operatives continue to freely roam throughout the nation as well.
Democracy or no democracy, Georgia will not be easily let go off by the West, unless of course there has been a deal reached between Moscow and Washington that we are not aware of...
Nevertheless, as mentioned, nothing is set in stone as of yet and no one can rule out the possibilities of major problems hitting the country sometime in the near future.
Since many Armenians these days adore what the mutilated dictatorship known as Georgia has become in recent years, I'd like to take a traditional detour at this point and discuss matters pertaining to Armenia and Russia within the context of Georgia and the greater geopolitical climate of the Caucasus region.
For reasons that should be only too obvious to all who are aware of Armenia's many predicaments in the south Caucasus, the political climate in Georgia is almost as important for Armenians as it is for Georgians. The mere fact that a vast majority of Armenia's trade goes through Georgia is enough to emphasize Tbilisi's strategic importance for Yerevan. Georgia controls Armenia's access to Russia and Europe. Needless to say, the composition of the Georgian government is a serious concern for Armenia. Unfortunately, these are some of the major problems that come with being landlocked and surrounded by hostile nations, and as long as Armenians are in a 'landlocked' state-of-mind, these problems, existential in nature, will continue for Armenia well into the future.
Struck by a serious prison abuse scandal that saw hundreds-of-thousands of Georgians taking to the streets in major protests across Georgia last month, and faced with the possibility of a popular up-rising against the Western-Zionist-Turkish backed regime in Tbilisi, officials of Saakashvili's ruling party (perhaps with Western advise) seem to have reluctantly accepted their defeat in this week's parliamentary elections. It now looks as if Saakashvili had in fact no choice in the matter. He had to either concede defeat to a very popular and powerful adversary, or watch his Western-style dictatorship masquerading as a democracy descend into bloody chaos.
How would that have looked for the West's favorite pet project in the Caucasus?
By allowing billionaire Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream coalition to claim the parliament, Saakashvili, still the generalissimo of Georgia, seems to have won some time for himself.
Known for being the richest Georgian in the world, the multi-billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili is a shrewd yet charismatic man who made his billions in the Russian Federation during the wild 1990s. More importantly, Ivanishvili has been publicly calling for better relations with Moscow. Ivanishvili's call to political sanity in Tbilisi was what prompted Saakashvili to claim that he was a "Russian agent" and that Georgia's political opposition was serving Russian interests. Despite Saakashvili's best efforts, which naturally included intimidation and oppressive tactics, a new era seems to be finally dawning in Georgia.
Having said that, it should also be emphasized that it is too early to make any concrete forecasts regarding changes in Tbilisi's political tastes. Only time will reveal what direction Ivanishvili's victory will take Georgia.
In the meanwhile, we can only watch, speculate and hope.
Expect to see an army of Western political activists and propagandists masquerading as journalists and political analysts systematically begin their verbal gymnastics and political spin. The West will attempt to present this apparent setback in Georgia as a victory for "western democracy"; as they gather behind closed doors to figure out how to salvage Saakashvili's regime.
I have no doubt that the following months will see the tie-eating dictator's government scrambling to find ways to maintain its iron-grip over the strategically situated south Caucasus nation. Let's be mindful of the fact that Saakashvili is still the president for the next year and his henchmen still control the nation's police force, the military and its interior ministry. And of course, American, European, Turkish and Israeli operatives continue to freely roam throughout the nation as well.
Democracy or no democracy, Georgia will not be easily let go off by the West, unless of course there has been a deal reached between Moscow and Washington that we are not aware of...
Nevertheless, as mentioned, nothing is set in stone as of yet and no one can rule out the possibilities of major problems hitting the country sometime in the near future.
Since many Armenians these days adore what the mutilated dictatorship known as Georgia has become in recent years, I'd like to take a traditional detour at this point and discuss matters pertaining to Armenia and Russia within the context of Georgia and the greater geopolitical climate of the Caucasus region.
For reasons that should be only too obvious to all who are aware of Armenia's many predicaments in the south Caucasus, the political climate in Georgia is almost as important for Armenians as it is for Georgians. The mere fact that a vast majority of Armenia's trade goes through Georgia is enough to emphasize Tbilisi's strategic importance for Yerevan. Georgia controls Armenia's access to Russia and Europe. Needless to say, the composition of the Georgian government is a serious concern for Armenia. Unfortunately, these are some of the major problems that come with being landlocked and surrounded by hostile nations, and as long as Armenians are in a 'landlocked' state-of-mind, these problems, existential in nature, will continue for Armenia well into the future.
In other words, as long as Armenia is landlocked in a volatile south Caucasus, her problematic neighbors will always have a heavy bearing on Armenia's development.
This is no way to forge a powerful or prosperous nation, and this is something Armenians seriously need to begin thinking about.
In the big picture, Armenia's "oligarchs" are the least of Armenia's problems. Even if Armenia's dreaded oligarchs turned into angels overnight, Armenia would continue suffering from economic stagnation and political instability. The geopolitical and geographical climate of the south Caucasus, as well as the lack of significant amounts of resources within territories controlled by Armenia, is the fundamental problem Armenia faces today. But of course bloodthirsty imperialists in Washington would much rather our idiots keep themselves busy pursuing "freedom of speech", "free and fair elections", "democracy", "gay rights"...
Anyway, Armenians have been closely watching the political discourse in Georgia.
Some of the watchers of course are members of Armenia's so-called political opposition. Knowing the low caliber of Armenia's opposition politicians, I have no doubt that they will lose no time in turning Ivanishvili's victory in Georgia into a nasty propaganda assault against the Armenian government.
I can almost hear them now - "see how democratic Georgia is?!"
Sadly, the political landscape in Armenia is utterly desolate. There is not a single political opposition figure in the country worthy of respect or trust. In this political landscape, President Sargsyan's administration continues to be is the lesser of all the evils in the country. Until I see a political opposition figure that is not serving Western interests or is not representing 1990s era criminals in the country, I will reluctantly continue voicing my support for the incumbent leadership in Yerevan.
Recent developments in Georgia should serve as serious a wake-up call to all.
For years I have been trying to explain to Armenians that despite its ideal circumstances, Georgia's problems are more serious than that of Armenia's and that the average Georgian is not better off than the average Armenian. However, a majority of Armenians that I have encountered have been too demoralized by Armenia's political opposition and too mesmerized by dazzling light display in Tbilisi and Batumi to comprehend any of it.
A favorite pastime of many Armenians in recent years has been to compare a "modern" Georgia to a "backward" Armenia. The following are the kind of comments very frequently heard on the streets of Yerevan -
"Saakashvili takes care of its people, unlike our (add your expletive) president"
"Armenia needs a Saakashvili of its own"Another favorite topic of discussion is the "western" or "professional" behavior of the Georgian police and the "primitive" or "corrupt" behavior of their Armenian counterparts.
"Under Sahakashvili, Georgia has become a western/European nation, whereas Armenia has remained a backward, Asiatic nation run by criminals from Karabakh"
My intent here is not to badmouth Georgians (although they certainly deserve it) or place every single aspect of the progress we have seen take place in Georgia in recent years under suspicion or scrutiny. I'd like to further add that there are many cultural and geographic factors that come into play in these types of discussions. I would be the first to admit that Georgians, significantly more so than Armenians, have a tendency towards westernization/Europeanization. The typical Georgian today is more liberal/open minded and western oriented than the typical Armenian. This is a fact. Moreover, Georgia's geographic situation is simply put - ideal.
There definitely are significant cultural, sociological and geographical differences between Armenia/Armenians and Georgia/Georgians. And within this context let's also remember that governments tend to be an accurate reflection of their people. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise to any one that - generally speaking - Georgians are more western oriented than Armenians. Some of the progress we have seen take place in Georgia is a reflection of all this.
Having said that, however, the immediate reason why Georgian government employees seem more professional than their Armenian counterparts and why Tbilisi looks more modern than Yerevan is money, and lots of it! Unlike the police in Armenia, Georgian police earn very high salaries; money that they and their families can live very well on. And unlike in Yerevan, many billions of dollars are spent on the modernization, or as Saakashvili would like to call it the "westernization" of Tbilisi.
So, where's all the money coming from?
Since its Western-funded color revolution in 2003 that brought Saakashvili to power in Tbilisi, Georgia has been enjoying tens-of-billions of dollars in foreign aid (primarily in loans from Western institutions). With its American-trained president at the helm, Georgia more-or-less become a political test-tube in the south Caucasus for the Anglo-American-Zionist alliance. Until the 2008 war that mutilated the country and dealt Western plans in the region a severe setback, Georgia was expected by the West - and by Israel, Turkey and Azerbaijan - to become a strategic base of operations against the Russian Federation. As a result, billions of dollars have been pumped into Georgia's state coffers from places like the United States, Great Britain, European Union, Israel, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. For a certain time period, Georgia had also become a major hub for Islamic radicals fighting Moscow in southern Russian.
Georgia's turning point came in the summer of 2008, when Saakashvili made the grave mistake of picking a fight with Russia. When the Bear roared in anger, Georgia's many supporters were nowhere to be seen.
Nevertheless, despite the free flow of money and support it was receiving from its numerous foreign handlers; despite its ideal geographic location; despite its newly constructed governmental buildings, roads and bridges; and despite the modernization of Georgia's national infrastructure, Georgia continued to suffer from autocratic rule, Georgia continued to suffer from high unemployment rates, emigration continued to be a problem. And the standard-of-living for the average Georgian in Georgia continued to be not much different from that of the average Armenian in the landlocked, blockaded and poor Armenia.
Our small, impoverished, remote, landlocked and blockaded homeland has been able to liberate some of its historic territories from Azerbaijan; forge a strategic alliance with the Russian Bear; maintain friendly relations with Iran; maintain friendly relations with Europe; maintain friendly relations with Washington; and successfully weather the economic storm of the past twenty years. Despite its numerous international supporters and ideal location, Georgia lost significant territories and made enemies with its neighbor, who just happens to be a superpower.
Therefore, who has in reality been better off, Armenia or Georgia?
But yes, for what it's worth, there seems to be less "corruption" in Georgia.
But there is a catch to this as well.
Therefore, who has in reality been better off, Armenia or Georgia?
But yes, for what it's worth, there seems to be less "corruption" in Georgia.
But there is a catch to this as well.
Similar to how it is in the Western world, corruption in Georgia is reserved only for those who are in power. The all-powerful state is the 'capo di tutti capi' of Georgia. Naturally, the powerful mafia seated in Tbilisi would not want any
competition from the lower echelons of society.
Thus, when Ossetians wanted independence, Tbilisi responded by waging a genocidal war against them; when Georgians took to the streets to complain about government corruption and abuse couple of years ago, they were mercilessly beaten back by thousands of Western-trained policemen and paramilitary; when Georgia's political opposition sounded the alarm about Saakashvili's despotic rule, hundreds of their activists were impassioned and their media outlets shutdown; and when prisoners got out of hand, they were raped with broom handles.
I guess besides Turkish and Israeli advisers, Tbilisi is also employing NYPD experts as well.
In the big picture, what we Armenians need to understand is that unlike Georgia's superficial developmental process, Armenia's development is natural, well rooted and well within its means. Although most Armenians today will have problems agreeing with this claim, I have no doubt that time will prove me correct. Unlike Georgia's and Azerbaijan's national developments, Armenia's national development has come against all odds and will prevail. While there remains many problems in our embattled nation stuck in a very volatile political environment, the fledgling Armenian state stubbornly continues its slow yet steady forward progress. Much of this is due in part to Armenia's crucially important strategic alliance with the Russian Federation.
Incidentally, some claim that had Armenia's leadership not been so Russophobic the West would have also provided Armenia with very large financial, economic and political support.
This is utter nonsense uttered by utter fools.
Even if Armenia's Russophobic political hardliners today managed to rid Armenia of all its "Rossophiles", kicked out the Russian military (a wet-dream of many in Armenia's political opposition), and pledged an absolute allegiance to the Western alliance - Armenia would still not have been supported to the tune of billions-of-dollars and Armenia would still not have been favored over Turkey and Azerbaijan in regional disputes. Armenians desperately need to come to the understanding that Armenia does not interest the political West because Armenia does not fit into their geostrategic calculations. The West is currently in the Caucasus merely to exploit Central Asian energy and to support Islamist and Turks against Russia and Iran.
Therefore, had Armenia been led by a Western-backed government, the country would have become economically and politically subordinate to Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi.
Besides which, Russia would most probably turn Armenia upside-down before it allows a Western-backed government to gain power in Yerevan. Simply put, the wish to see Armenia led by a Western stooge is one of the suicidal tendencies expressed by the self-destructive peasantry within the political opposition in Armenia today.
This is a fact: Armenia's national existence in the south Caucasus serves the national interests of the Russian Federation and Iran. That's it!
And a somber reminder to all Russophobic Armenian nationalists: a Caucasus without a powerful Russian presence is a Caucasus without an Armenian presence.
I do not think Armenia would have been able to survive the ravages of the Caucasus had it not been for Moscow's genuine support.
Nevertheless, unlike the political system steadily evolving under the capable leadership of President Serj Sargsyan, the flashy yet flimsy house-of-cards Saakashvili built in Tbilisi with Western loans may be falling apart already. Although it is a bit too early to celebrate, this week's parliamentary election in Georgia may be the first step to finally riding Tbilisi of its tie-eating dictator. After Russian successes in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Serbia, this week's elections in Georgia. If so, it has come not a moment too soon.
The following are older blog posts about the severe problems Saakashvili's Georgia caused in the region. Please revisit them -
Thus, when Ossetians wanted independence, Tbilisi responded by waging a genocidal war against them; when Georgians took to the streets to complain about government corruption and abuse couple of years ago, they were mercilessly beaten back by thousands of Western-trained policemen and paramilitary; when Georgia's political opposition sounded the alarm about Saakashvili's despotic rule, hundreds of their activists were impassioned and their media outlets shutdown; and when prisoners got out of hand, they were raped with broom handles.
I guess besides Turkish and Israeli advisers, Tbilisi is also employing NYPD experts as well.
In the big picture, what we Armenians need to understand is that unlike Georgia's superficial developmental process, Armenia's development is natural, well rooted and well within its means. Although most Armenians today will have problems agreeing with this claim, I have no doubt that time will prove me correct. Unlike Georgia's and Azerbaijan's national developments, Armenia's national development has come against all odds and will prevail. While there remains many problems in our embattled nation stuck in a very volatile political environment, the fledgling Armenian state stubbornly continues its slow yet steady forward progress. Much of this is due in part to Armenia's crucially important strategic alliance with the Russian Federation.
Incidentally, some claim that had Armenia's leadership not been so Russophobic the West would have also provided Armenia with very large financial, economic and political support.
This is utter nonsense uttered by utter fools.
Even if Armenia's Russophobic political hardliners today managed to rid Armenia of all its "Rossophiles", kicked out the Russian military (a wet-dream of many in Armenia's political opposition), and pledged an absolute allegiance to the Western alliance - Armenia would still not have been supported to the tune of billions-of-dollars and Armenia would still not have been favored over Turkey and Azerbaijan in regional disputes. Armenians desperately need to come to the understanding that Armenia does not interest the political West because Armenia does not fit into their geostrategic calculations. The West is currently in the Caucasus merely to exploit Central Asian energy and to support Islamist and Turks against Russia and Iran.
Therefore, had Armenia been led by a Western-backed government, the country would have become economically and politically subordinate to Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi.
Besides which, Russia would most probably turn Armenia upside-down before it allows a Western-backed government to gain power in Yerevan. Simply put, the wish to see Armenia led by a Western stooge is one of the suicidal tendencies expressed by the self-destructive peasantry within the political opposition in Armenia today.
This is a fact: Armenia's national existence in the south Caucasus serves the national interests of the Russian Federation and Iran. That's it!
And a somber reminder to all Russophobic Armenian nationalists: a Caucasus without a powerful Russian presence is a Caucasus without an Armenian presence.
I do not think Armenia would have been able to survive the ravages of the Caucasus had it not been for Moscow's genuine support.
Nevertheless, unlike the political system steadily evolving under the capable leadership of President Serj Sargsyan, the flashy yet flimsy house-of-cards Saakashvili built in Tbilisi with Western loans may be falling apart already. Although it is a bit too early to celebrate, this week's parliamentary election in Georgia may be the first step to finally riding Tbilisi of its tie-eating dictator. After Russian successes in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Serbia, this week's elections in Georgia. If so, it has come not a moment too soon.
The following are older blog posts about the severe problems Saakashvili's Georgia caused in the region. Please revisit them -
Saakashvili Says Whoever Opposes Azerbaijan is Georgia’s Enemy - September, 2011: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/09/saakashvili-says-whoever-opposes.html
Clashes at anti-government protest in Georgia - May, 2011: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/05/although-bit-late-georgians-are.htm
Israel’s role in the Russia-Georgia war - September, 2008: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2009/06/russian-units-raid-georgian-airfields.html
I would like to also add here that better relations between Georgia-Russia will serve to add further pressure on Azerbaijan. Needles to say, such an outcome would be ideal for Yerevan. With Baku's relations with Yerevan virtually non-existent and with its relations with an embattled Iran as strained as ever, Georgia had been Azerbaijan's only direct westward route to Turkey and beyond. If the Georgian factor diminishes in Baku's geopolitical formulations, Azeri officials may feel compelled to think about conceding defeat. If Russia makes a comeback in Georgia, I believe Baku will eventually accept its loses in Nagorno Karabakh, somberly enter Moscow's political orbit and reluctantly make peace with Yerevan.
Only through a pacified south Caucasus will the region experience genuine progress.
Only through a pacified south Caucasus will the region experience genuine progress.
After all is said and done, as
long as the "Great Game" of the great powers of the world continues to be played in
the Caucasus, the region in question shall remain backward and a volatile
powder-keg. If we want prosperity and stability to come to the Caucasus we must first have Pax Russica come to the region.
And speaking of Pax Russica, there is yet another very important strategic matter to consider. A recent Arminfo article titled "What Will 'Georgian Dream' Bring Armenia?" (featured below this commentary) discusses some aspects of this interesting issue.
For years there has been talk in Moscow about the revitalization of a major Soviet era motorway and railway project in the Caucasus. The main purpose of this Russian initiative is to tie south Caucasus nations to Russia via a Russian-led trade network. Moreover, Moscow also seems very interested in creating a transportation corridor to Iran through Armenia. These strategic projects have gone beyond talk in recent years. In fact, a lot of money has already been spent on them by interested parties. Moreover, some work has already begun in southern Russia, Abkhazia and Armenia.
Looking at the overall picture, however, one immediately sees a problem. Georgia is essentially the missing link in a motor and rail transportation network that is meant to stretch from Russia to Iran traversing Abkhazia, Georgia and Armenia. This raises a question: Why would they design such a grand project and spend a lot of money on it if Georgia will not part of the equation? It is obvious that such a project can only be realized after normalization of relations between Tbilisi and Moscow, and without interference from the West and/or Turkey. In my opinion, it can be safely speculated that Moscow is expecting regime change in Georgia, as well as no interference from the West or Turkey.
Written by senior State Department official Paul Goble (anyone remember the infamous "Goble Plan", the Washingtonian project in Armenia that led to the 1999 parliamentary assassinations in Yerevan?), the last article at the bottom of this page is an interesting commentary related to RF President Vladimir Putin's desire to see Saakashvili's downfall.
Once the above mentioned Moscow-led motor and rail transportation network is realized, it will ultimately prove to be a death-blow to similar Western projects in the region that have sought to by pass Russia, Armenia and Iran. It is interesting to note that construction of a new north-south highway has already begun in Armenia.
It seems that the playing field in the south Caucasus is gradually being prepared. Under the protective umbrella of the Russian military, serious economic projects are being designed. If Moscow succeeds in economically, politically and militarily tying the south Caucasus to it (which is clearly what they are intending to do), Armenia will be standing poised to become a major transit hub connecting Russia to Iran within foreseeable future.
To fully grasp the immense potential of such a project, and to recognize its great implications for the greater Caucasus, one needs to look at it within the framework of a Moscow-led Eurasian Union. The following are some related blog entries from previous years. Please revisit them -
Looking at the overall picture, however, one immediately sees a problem. Georgia is essentially the missing link in a motor and rail transportation network that is meant to stretch from Russia to Iran traversing Abkhazia, Georgia and Armenia. This raises a question: Why would they design such a grand project and spend a lot of money on it if Georgia will not part of the equation? It is obvious that such a project can only be realized after normalization of relations between Tbilisi and Moscow, and without interference from the West and/or Turkey. In my opinion, it can be safely speculated that Moscow is expecting regime change in Georgia, as well as no interference from the West or Turkey.
Written by senior State Department official Paul Goble (anyone remember the infamous "Goble Plan", the Washingtonian project in Armenia that led to the 1999 parliamentary assassinations in Yerevan?), the last article at the bottom of this page is an interesting commentary related to RF President Vladimir Putin's desire to see Saakashvili's downfall.
Once the above mentioned Moscow-led motor and rail transportation network is realized, it will ultimately prove to be a death-blow to similar Western projects in the region that have sought to by pass Russia, Armenia and Iran. It is interesting to note that construction of a new north-south highway has already begun in Armenia.
It seems that the playing field in the south Caucasus is gradually being prepared. Under the protective umbrella of the Russian military, serious economic projects are being designed. If Moscow succeeds in economically, politically and militarily tying the south Caucasus to it (which is clearly what they are intending to do), Armenia will be standing poised to become a major transit hub connecting Russia to Iran within foreseeable future.
To fully grasp the immense potential of such a project, and to recognize its great implications for the greater Caucasus, one needs to look at it within the framework of a Moscow-led Eurasian Union. The following are some related blog entries from previous years. Please revisit them -
Armenia May Become Alternative Transit Energy Route Between Caspian Basin And Europe - June, 2009: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/08/day-or-two-after-washington-announced.html
Putin's Fight For Control of Russia's Oil - May, 2010: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/moscow-currently-satisfies-about-13-of.html
U.S. Abandoning Russia's Neighbors - July, 2010: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/following-are-two-very-interesting.html
The New "Great Game": Oil Politics in the Caucasus and Central Asia - September, 2010:
http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/some-see-expulsion-of-washingtonian.html
Shortest way from Europe to Asia lies through Armenia - October, 2010: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/shortest-way-from-europe-to-asia-lies.html
Vladimir Putin Wants Eurasian Economic Union - November, 2011: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/11/putin-sets-sights-on-eurasian-economic.html
If Moscow and Georgia manage to make peace and Baku is more-or-less forced to accept its defeat, the entire Caucasus region will benefit greatly from it. And if Moscow also manages to save Syria and is able to discourage a full-scale attack against Iran, I believe a tectonic shift will take place in the political landscape of the greater region. We may in fact finally begin seeing the commencement of the long-overdue demise of the English speaking global order that has more-or-less ruled much of the world uninterruptedly since the defeat of Napoleon exactly two hundred years ago. The preservation of Syria and Iran, coupled with a powerful Russian presence in the south Caucasus will see the weakening of Western, Islamic, Turkish and Zionist interests in the region and usher in a new era.
Perhaps this is why the Anglo-American-Zionist alliance and Turco-Islamic friends are adamant about containing Russia and destroying Syria and Iran.
Perhaps this is why the Anglo-American-Zionist alliance and Turco-Islamic friends are adamant about containing Russia and destroying Syria and Iran.
In the meanwhile, Yerevan needs to do its best to firmly hold on to Artsakh until the situation in the region settles. Moreover, Yerevan also needs to be smart enough to keep a close eye on developing situations in Georgia and in Azerbaijan... just in case it needs to make a move on Javakhq, or carry-out a strike against Azerbaijan to establish a border connection with the Russian Federation. If, however, Yerevan is not presented with the historic opportunity to either liberate Javakhq, gain an access to the Black Sea or to establish a border connection with the Russian Federation, the best alternative option I see for Armenia is to have the entire south Caucasus enter Moscow's orbit. This latter alternative may in fact be the safest and the most realistic option for Armenia.
The Caucasus has been reeling from the geopolitical tug-of-war that has taken place between Moscow and the West for the past twenty years. The only way the region will be pacified and enjoy genuine economic progress is through Pax Russica. The only way the region's strong Islamic and Turkic tendencies will be kept in check is through Pax Russica. The only way Armenia will be able to breakout of its mountainous prison is through Pax Russica!
The nation that Saakashvili's Anglo-Judeo-Turkish-mercenary government put together, a government that many of our idiots are still in awe of today, is an artificial fabrication, an anti-Russian geostrategic experiment and ultimately a house-of-cards that is on the verge of collapse. Sooner-or-later, Tbilisi will be brought back under Russian orbit and the tie-eating "political corpse" will be put on a one way flight to Washington, Ankara or Tel Aviv - dead or alive.
The following are relevant news articles and video reports about the political discourse taking place in Georgia, including some older but very interesting materials. Please review them all for a better understanding of Russia's resurgence in the Caucasus and the political situation in Tbilisi.
The nation that Saakashvili's Anglo-Judeo-Turkish-mercenary government put together, a government that many of our idiots are still in awe of today, is an artificial fabrication, an anti-Russian geostrategic experiment and ultimately a house-of-cards that is on the verge of collapse. Sooner-or-later, Tbilisi will be brought back under Russian orbit and the tie-eating "political corpse" will be put on a one way flight to Washington, Ankara or Tel Aviv - dead or alive.
The following are relevant news articles and video reports about the political discourse taking place in Georgia, including some older but very interesting materials. Please review them all for a better understanding of Russia's resurgence in the Caucasus and the political situation in Tbilisi.
Arevordi
October, 2012
*** *** ***
Georgia swift to follow into America's debt steps: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOA6o5INsto
Georgia has no chance of joining NATO: http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/2/UQ4defKUMe8
Is there a middle class in Russia? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laYsrwFtoOw
Georgia accused of fostering terrorism as prison abuse affair not fading: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVJGSpErL-U&feature=plcp
Whistleblower: Saakashvili knew of torture in Georgia prison: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxoLEwMK12c&feature=plcp
Georgia tightens grip on justice: http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/42/RwPb0aJsa28
*** *** ***
Deflowering the ‘Rose Revolution’
Despite the best
efforts of Georgian strongman Mikheil Saakashvili and his ruling
party, Georgian voters have delivered a stunning victory to
challenger Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who vowed to tamp down
tensions with Russia and free up an increasingly authoritarian
system. Saakashvili pulled out all the stops in his campaign to
neutralize the first credible political challenge to his rule: his
initial response was to revoke Ivanishvili’s citizenship. When
that raised eyebrows in the West — and a storm of protest in
Georgia — Saakashvili backtracked, and turned to other
methods. The Georgian opposition, Georgian Dream, was subjected to
new rules and regulations, limiting the amount of money they could
spend, and opposition supporters were fired from their state jobs.
Exorbitant fines were levied on dissident groups, and gangs of thugs
preyed on opposition activists, particularly in rural areas where
dependence on state subsidies — and the good graces of the
ruling party — is the key to survival.
And, of course,
Saakashvili’s Western allies were quick to respond to
Ivanishvili’s challenge. A much criticized
“survey” put out by the National Democratic Institute —
the Democratic party’s international bureau, affiliated with
the US government-subsidized National Endowment for Democracy —
claimed
right before the election that Georgian Dream was “losing
support to Saakashvili,” with one of its questions asking
if voters would support Ivanishvili’s “call for street
protests” if he lost. A major flaw in this equation:
Ivanishvili had made no such call. Yet even after Ivanishvili
complained, the US ambassador, John Bass, defended
NDI’s intervention in the election, averring that its
methodology was correct — even as independent pollsters, not
affiliated with the NED, were saying it was a close race. Opposition
spokesperson Maia Panjikidze was blunt:
“We do not trust the NDI surveys, as well as the researches of other organizations. We are not familiar with the methodology of research, how the field work was conducted, we do not know who’s funding these studies.”
Of
course they don’t trust the NDI surveys — that’s
because Saakashvili has been one of America’s top clients since his ascension to power in the 2003 “Rose Revolution.”
George W. Bush stopped off in Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, in
2005, where he hailed Georgia for increasing its commitment to
stationing troops in Iraq “five-fold,” and held up
Saakashvili’s increasingly repressive regime as an exemplar of
his “Freedom Agenda.” After Saakashvili bombed the city
of Tskhinvali for defying his authority, killing over a thousand
civilians and a dozen Russian peace-keepers, the Russians
intervened. Although Saakashvili started the war — he had been
planning it for quite some time, according to a former government
official — both US presidential candidates (Obama and John McCain)
sided with Saakashvili, competing with each other in denouncing
“Russian aggression.” After the war, in which the
Georgians were soundly defeated, the US sent
$1 billion in “aid”
to “rebuild Georgia.”
Saakashvili’s
aim — to drag the US into a military confrontation with Russia — failed, but not without a reasonable expectation of
substantial American support. McCain’s unforgettably stupid
declaration that “Today we are all Georgians” reflected a
bipartisan consensus in Washington that Big Bad Russia is trying to
reabsorb its former satrap, and that Saakashvili is a Good Guy. The
big problem with this equation is that the Georgian people had, by
this time, had enough of “Misha.” Growing public
dissatisfaction with the regime’s repressive methods —
political murders, beatings of dissidents, closing down opposition
media — led to massive street demonstrations in November,
resulting in a crackdown: police fired on protesters, and an
opposition television station was occupied by troops. Dissident
media were “temporarily” banned.
The
next elections were characterized by outright ballot-stuffing,
intimidation, and threats against opposition activists, who were
jailed and fired from their jobs. The OSCE condemned
the balloting. The country was rocked by protests, resulting in more
confrontations on the streets of Tbilisi between opposition activists
and police. This week’s election was marked by open bias in
the government-controlled media, threats against government
employees who refused to support Saakashvili, and the above-mentioned
interventions by US-funded “pro-democracy” organizations — all to no avail.
The
final blow against Saakashvili was delivered by a video showing
disgusting abuse of prisoners in a Georgian prison. An arrest
warrant was issued for the prison guard who leaked the video: he has
since sought political asylum
abroad. In spite of official acclaim for the “democratic
reformer” Saakashvili, the horrific conditions in Georgia’s
prisons was well-known to human rights groups: that didn’t
stop the US government from sending billions to their “democratic”
sock puppet, however.
During
the campaign, the regime’s refrain was that Ivanishvili and
his supporters are “traitors,” “Russian agents”
who want to deliver Georgia to Putin’s tender mercies: this,
indeed, has been his response to any and all internal critics who
dared speak up. Georgian voters weren’t buying it: yet it
would be a mistake to think Saakashvili is going to fold up his tent
and go quietly. He’s still the President, and while
governmental reforms mean the powers of his office are slated to be
reduced, with the switch to a parliamentary system, the transition
has yet to take place.
Ivanishvili
is calling on Saakashvili to resign, but that isn’t going to
happen. “Misha” will put every obstacle in the new
government’s way, and is doubtless at this moment planning his
revenge. In the meantime, however, the oppressed people of Georgia
mean to have their
revenge — paving the way for a long, drawn out drama.
Saakashvili
will always have his American apologists, including this
creep, who dismissed
Ivanishvili’s exposure of Georgia’s authoritarian regime
as “stories of pro-government voter suppression and opposition
rhetoric that seemed to reject the institutions of government
itself.” Yes, the screams of the tortured dissidents coming
from Georgia’s dungeons are just the yelps of miscreant
anarchists and Ron Paul supporters, according to this oily little
neocon. Expect to hear more from Saakashvili’s
well-compensated
American fan
club as the deflowering of the
“Rose Revolution” continues apace.
Is Ivanishvili a Trojan Horse for Russia’s Return to Georgia?
In the run-up to Georgia's parliamentary elections on Monday, supporters of President Mikheil Saakashvili derided their opponent, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, as a "Kremlin project." Activists for Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream coalition were even chased
out of a village housing refugees from the 2008 war with shouts
of "Russians" ringing in their ears. These Georgians say, "Follow the money."
Not only did Ivanishvili make his fortune of $6.4 billion in Russia
during the wild years of the 1990s, but he was able to liquidate his
Russian holdings last year at good prices. In Russia, billionaires only survive if they enjoy the good graces of President Vladimir Putin. His political rival, former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is in jail. Mikhail Prokhorov retreated from politics after a tepid bid for president this year, and billionaire Alexander Lebedev finds that the price for opposing Putin is that no one dares to buy his assets.
On Friday, I asked Ivanishvili if he is a Kremlin project. He laughed
off the question, saying that over the past decade he gave $1.7 billion
in aid to Georgia. He added jokingly, "If that means being a Kremlin
agent, then the Kremlin has in me the best agent for Georgia." At age 56, Ivanishvili is a shrewd pragmatist. My bet is that he will
try to steer Georgia into a more neutral course. U.S. conservatives
might label this as "Finlandization," but this policy served Finland
well after fighting two wars with Moscow in the 1940s.
Ivanishvili says he wants to normalize relations with Russia.
In addition to reopening embassies, this would mean restoring trade
ties. Once Georgia's main trading partner, Russia now accounts for only 4
percent of Georgia's trade. With 30 times the population of Georgia,
Russia is a natural source of tourists for Georgia's booming tourism
industry along the Black Sea coast. Now a member of the World Trade Organization, Russia is obligated
to drop unilateral trade barriers. The WTO could provide a fig leaf
for Moscow to normalize.
Looking forward to the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics, Russia has one
year to lock in peace and quiet on its southern border. It has created
a buffer state, Abkhazia, directly across the border from the skiing
venues. But it would further calm pre-Olympic nerves if there were
a leader in Tbilisi committed to controlling rogue nationalist elements
of Georgian security forces.
For Moscow, the red line is NATO membership.
In 1944, before NATO was created, U.S. diplomat George Kennan wrote,
"The jealous eye of the Kremlin can distinguish, in the end, only
vassals and enemies; and the neighbors of Russia, if they do not wish
to be one, must reconcile themselves to being the other." After winning the parliamentary elections, Ivanishvili repeated
on Tuesday his commitment to winning NATO membership for Georgia. But
in reality, Russians and Georgians may privately agree to publicly
disagree on NATO while moving forward on trade and tourism.
Realpolitik analysts in Moscow, Brussels and Tbilisi know that NATO
membership is not going to happen as long as 9,000 or so Russian
soldiers are firmly entrenched in Georgia's two secessionist
territories, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Last summer, I stood about a kilometer south of the South Ossetia
truce line where I borrowed a pair of high-powered binoculars from a
Polish peacekeeper. Studying the new watchtowers and fresh concertina
wire of three new Russian army outposts, it was clear to me that
the truce line is about as temporary as the demilitarization zone
separating North and South Korea.
Georgians know that, given the signal from Moscow, Russian troops
could once again break out of South Ossetia, drive south and cut Georgia
in half — all in about 45 minutes. With that knowledge, Ivanishvili
shows no sign of throwing away the close relationship that Saakashvili
forged with the United States. If he seeks to follow a third way, he
needs Washington to counterbalance Moscow.
Before Monday's election, Saakashvili reportedly spent $600,000
a month on lobbyists in Washington. The morning after the vote, he met
in Tbilisi with two visiting United States senators who are members
of the Foreign Relations Committee, James Risch and Jeanne Shaheen. Referring to the United States, Saakashvili said, "We talked about
the future, how to develop our relationship with our big friend and how
to develop democracy in Georgia."
On one level, Georgia receives large amounts of foreign aid from the
United States. On another level, U.S. engagement frees Georgia to pursue
a regional role as a transit country for Central Asian oil and gas
through pipelines that are outside of Kremlin control. For Ivanishvili, Moscow is just one point in his mental compass. Like
most successful Georgians of his generation, he has moved far beyond
his Soviet upbringing to feel comfortable in the West. He holds a French
passport and speaks French. He stores his $1 billion modern art
collection in London. He loves to discuss with foreign architects his
favorite pet project: building a world class modern art museum
in Georgia to house his art.
When Russian tourists start to rediscover Georgia, they will also discover that Russia has lost a generation of Georgians. If tourists want to speak in Russian, they had better seek out
a Georgian over 35. Two decades ago, Russian language study was largely
dropped from schools here. Instead, the study of English is now
universal and obligatory. Russian is offered as an optional second
language on par with Turkish and Farsi. At concierge desks of new hotels in Tbilisi — the two Mariotts,
the Radisson and the Holiday Inn – visitors will find any of five free
local newspapers in English. Nothing in Russian.
Picking up Georgia's Financial newsweekly, visitors can study
Tbilisi's international flight schedule. This x-ray of modern Georgia's
world view lists direct flights to 22 foreign cities — from London
to Urumqi, China — but no flights to any city in Russia. (There is
a daily flight to Moscow, but since there are no diplomatic relations,
it is a considered a charter.) This deep sense of Georgian nationalism coupled with Ivanishvili's
canny pragmatism point to a future policy with Russia that will be less
of an embrace, and more of a detente.
At his news conference on Tuesday, Ivanishvili told reporters: "If
you ask me, 'America or Russia?', I say we need to have good relations
with everybody."
Source: blogs.voanews.com/russia-watch/2012/10/03/is-ivanishvili-a-trojan-horse-for-russias-return-to-georgia/
Is Bidzina Ivanishvili 'Pro-Russia?' Mikhail Saakashvili Certainly Thinks So!
As I wrote yesterday there has been some very good reporting
coming out of Georgia in the aftermath of the parliamentary election,
including some reporting that does not paint Bidzina Ivanishvili in a particularly flattering light. I’ve
repeatedly written that so long as the election was generally free and
fair I would be perfectly comfortable with whomever the Georgian
electorate chose.
While I certainly had my suspicions that a continued Saakashvili
reign wouldn’t be particularly beneficial for Georgian interests, and
that an Ivanishvili victory would be the least bad option in a very
imperfect situation, I didn’t write any love letters to Ivanishvili nor
did I go on any sort of anti-Saakashvili crusade. This wasn’t just to
strike a convenient pose of “balance” but because I truly wasn’t
invested in either side of the Georgian election. My only
desire (which thankfully seems to have come true!) was that Georgia
would avoid being pulled into an immediate “color revolution” scenario
in which the country was paralyzed by massive street protests and
comprehensive political instability. That, obviously would have been a
disaster for Georgia and Georgians. That the country’s democratic
institutions have held up under a lot of strain is something that ought
to be celebrated.
This is a bit of a long-winded way of saying that I am neither an
Ivanishvili nor a Saakashvili partisan, and that I’ve done my best to
describe things in Georgia through neither a UNM nor a Georgian Dream
lens.
But some journalists covering the Georgian election are pretty
obviously in the Saakashvili camp and barely even make a pretense of
hiding it. I read Anna Nemtsova’s article in the Daily Beast, subtly titled “Sunset for Misha? Georgia’s Pro-Western Mikheil Saakashvili Defeated by Pro-Russian Challenger,”
with mute incomprehension: I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a news report
in a major publication that had such skimpy evidence and that was
so ostentatiously biased in its presentation.
What “proof” does Nemtsova provide for her incredibly bold contention
that Ivanishvili, someone who has loudly, repeatedly, and publicly
declared his intention of joining NATO and the EU, is “pro-Moscow?” and
“pro-Russia?” The only “evidence” that she marshals are vague and
unsubstantiated accusations from a Saakashvili surrogate. That is,
Nemtsova’s “proof” that Ivanishvili is pro-Russia is a vague
denunciation from one of his mortal political enemies who he just defeated in a bitterly contested election (emphasis added):
Of course, no election is as simple as a choice for which party should have a majority of seats in Parliament. Former minister of the economy Kakha Bendukidze, who has been the architect of the outgoing government’s reform policies, said in a phone interview that Tuesday’s election threatened to make Georgia “Moscow’s satellite.” “I do not think that the majority of people voting for the opposition’s Georgian Dream quite realized that,” Bendukidze said.
This isn’t reporting, it’s gossip-mongering. Saakashvili and his political allies accuse all of
their domestic political opponents of being Kremlin plants: that’s just
what they do. They’ve been doing this since the immediate aftermath of
the Rose Revolution, and it’s hardly been a secret. Someone from UNM
calling someone from Georgian Dream “pro-Russia” would be like a
Republican accusing a Democrat of being “soft of defense:” it’s a
standard-issue bit of political posturing, a ritual denunciation that
has been emptied of all content and meaning. A Saakashvili ally calling
someone “pro-Russia” is, basically, the least surprising thing in the
world. If it actually qualifies as news we’re going to need to train a
crack team of reporters to check on the bathroom habits of
forest-dwelling bears because everything is news.
Now it is of course possible that Ivanishvili is, in fact, a Russian agent. If presented with actual evidence of
his dastardly pro-Kremlin ways I suppose I would believe it. But my
willingness to believe the evidence would depend on its strength: for it
to be convincing it would need to be real, verifiable, and directly
relevant. The bitter recriminations of a recently defeated political
rival aren’t “evidence,” indeed they’re not even newsworthy. We’re
supposed to be surprised that the loser of a months long political
knife-fight is bitter? What did we expect the Saakahsvili camp to say?
“We were totally kidding during the election when we called
Ivanishvili an evil Kremlin patsy and tried to strip him of his Georgian
citizenship. We’re actually bros and we have plans to watch the
Eagles-Steelers game this Sunday up at his crazy glass castle. He even
said he’d let us play with the zebras.”
All things considered I have seen nothing that suggests that
Ivanishvili actually has any plans to turn Georgia into a “Russian
satellite” though I have heard him repeatedly say that he intends to
continue his predecessor’s integration with the West.* Now politicians
lie and let me be clear in saying that it’s totally conceivable that
Ivanishivili is just putting on a big show for the benefit of his Moscow
sponsors. If that’s the case, if this is all a big song and dance to
let the Russians in, I’d be very interested in knowing that: covering
such a story would almost certainly give me a very nice bump in traffic.
But, and this is for all of those aggrieved Saakashvili fans out there, I need actual evidence to
write a story about Ivanishvili’s betrayal of his homeland. Find me
Ivanishvili’s GRU marching orders, find me someone in the Kremlin who
will take credit for his election, find me a draft Georgian Dream party
platform which has “become part of the Russian Federation” crudely
crossed out, find me the details of the “deal” which allowed Ivanishvili
to get all of his money out of Moscow, find me something (anything!)
that I can actually hang my hat on. Don’t pretend that the
offhand musing of bitter Saakashvili allies are meaningful political
insights, because they aren’t, they’re just the offhand musings of
bitter Saakashvili allies.
Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/10/03/is-bidzina-ivanishvili-pro-russia-mikhail-saakashvili-and-his-surrogates-certainly-think-so/
Nine years after he ushered in a democratic Georgia, President
Mikheil Saakashvili conceded defeat Tuesday after parliamentary
elections showed a surge of support for a billionaire who made his money
in Russia. "I express my respect toward the decision of the majority," said Saakashvili in a live TV address to the nation. Billionaire
Bizdina Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream coalition won a parliamentary
majority and will be able to form a new government, though Saakashvili's
term does not expire for another year.
Saakashvili has been in power since the peaceful Rose Revolution ended unrest in a country that was once under Soviet domination until it declared independence in 1991. He overhauled a Communist-style economy and steered the country away from Russian influence and toward the West. Though the economy grew significantly over the years, poverty remained a problem, and his opponents charged him with authoritarian tactics similar to those once used against Georgians by the Soviets.
Saakashvili has been in power since the peaceful Rose Revolution ended unrest in a country that was once under Soviet domination until it declared independence in 1991. He overhauled a Communist-style economy and steered the country away from Russian influence and toward the West. Though the economy grew significantly over the years, poverty remained a problem, and his opponents charged him with authoritarian tactics similar to those once used against Georgians by the Soviets.
The opposition Georgian
Dream campaign pointed to violent crackdowns on street protests in 2007
and 2011, persistent high-level corruption and continuing restrictions
on media freedoms as evidence that Saakashvili's rule has grown too
heavy-handed. Two weeks ago, video footage was made public of
conditions in a Tbilisi prison showing inmates being tortured and raped.
Thousands of protesters poured into the streets.
Ivanishvili's
supporters flooded the streets of the capital, blasting car horns and
waving flags in celebration until the early hours of the morning. "It's a party; everyone's here to enjoy it," said Nata Bokuchava, 32. Ivanishvili
made his fortune in post-Soviet Russia in computer and banking
businesses. He has promised to improve relations with Georgia's powerful
neighbor and strengthen economic ties, though he says he is not a
supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"Ivanishvili's
election may help to break the stalemate between Russia and Georgia –
this is not necessarily bad news for the West," said Lilit Gevorgyan,
political analyst at IHS Global Insight. "It will help the EU and U.S.
to iron out one more wrinkle in their relations with Russia, which saw a
serious blow as a result of 2008 Georgian-Russian war."
Ivanishvili
is not likely to be a purely pro-Russian leader but will attempt to
tightrope between a potential economic partner Russia and the West, she
said. "Georgia will develop a multidirectional foreign policy,
trying to balance its already good relations with the West with newly
reviving ties with Russia," she said.
Few deny the scale of change
in the country since 2003: The once widespread petty corruption among
police and low-level officials has been all but wiped out and everyday
security for ordinary people has massively improved.
But
unemployment remains high outside of the cities, and rising food and
electricity prices mean many feel worse off under Saakashvili than they
had been under Soviet rule.
Saakashvili has secured his legacy as
a democratic reformer, says Mark Mullen, founder of anti-corruption NGO
Transparency International's Georgia chapter. The election marks the
first electoral power transfer since Georgia gained independence from
the Soviet Union in 1991. "There will now likely be an international outpouring of praise for Saakashvili," Mullen said.
International
observers said Tuesday that they had an "overall positive" assessment
of the election despite reports from the opposition of intimidation and
vote rigging on election day, which were later confirmed by Transparency
International. "There were problems, but we've decided not to
take them any further," said Gia Gvilava, senior lawyer and head of the
Transparency International observer mission. "It was a close call, but
the government has decided to respect the result; in the end it was
democratic."
Representatives from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly –
an association of lawmakers from NATO member states – praised the level
of citizen participation, which may help Georgia's desire to join the
Western alliance. "We were impressed that the mass rallies were
peaceful, and the heartfelt involvement we saw can only bode well for
Georgia's future," said Assen Agov, head of the NATO Parliamentary
Assembly Delegation. "Georgia will become a member of NATO."
Winning the Georgian parliamentary elections is certainly a dream
come true for billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream
Party. The question now is whether the possible future PM will make
those dreams a reality. Until relatively recently Bidzina Ivanishvili was only known to most
of his countrymen as the richest Georgian in the world, with an
estimated personal fortune of US$6.4 billion. Its just a year since the
56-year-old decided it was time for him to step into the political
limelight and run against the party of incumbent President Mikhail
Saakashvili.
The leader of the Georgia Dream party lives in the
village of Chorvilla where he was born. His house nowadays is more like
a glass castle. Perched high in the mountains overlooking the capital
Tbilisi, the hi-tech glass structure took 10 years and millions of
dollars to construct. His political rival, President Mikhail Saakashvili, derided the billionaire for living in what he described as "an armoured fish tank."
Despite the obvious bad
feeling between he and his political opponent Saakashvili, it seems
they share the same Western political values. At a press conference
after the election, Ivanishvili said Georgia's entry to NATO is one of
his priorities. Yet he criticised Saakashvili for souring relations
with neighbors.
"That was an erroneous policy; we intend to be a regional actor and to normalize relations with neighbors, including Russia," he said.
Bidzina
Ivanishvili made his fortune in Russia, having founded the Rossiysky
Kredit Bank with his partner Vitaly Malkin in 1990. He set up various
businesses during the infamous privatization processes in Russia in
1990s, with interests extending into metal production, mining and
investments in the Russian stock market. Reportedly the Georgian
billionaire used to own Russian drug store chain Doktor Stoletov and two
five-star hotels in the Russian capital.
Up until his decision
to enter Georgian politics Ivanishvili had kept a low profile, since
then he‘s expressed his views in newspapers like The Daily Telegraph and The Economist in London, and on TV channels like BBC World. In
order to take part in Georgian political life, Bidzina Ivanishvili had
to give up his Russian citizenship and sell his assets in Russia. But
that never stopped the accusations he was a "Russian agent" which resulted in him losing his Georgian citizenship.
As
of now Bidzina Ivanishvili is a citizen of France, but hopes to regain
his Georgian citizenship soon. Following the coalition's victory in
the parliamentary poll, he urged a review of his case. If successful he
could be given the job of the country’s new prime minister. Outside of politics and business, Ivanishvili is known to be an avid collector of 20th-century art. It’s
thought the pride of his collection is Pablo Picasso’s painting Dora
Maar with Cat, bought at Sotheby's for $95 million in 2006.
His
residence in Chorvila is reportedly stuffed with replica artworks of
Anish Kapoor, Damien Hirst, Henry Moore and Zaha Hadid, the real ones
are kept safely in London. His political opponents have dubbed the billionaire "penguin",
because of the private menagerie he keeps at his home in Georgia. He
has a number of rare species, including lemurs, penguins and a zebra. Bidzina Ivanishvili is married and has four children.
Tens of thousands hit Tbilisi streets in 'largest-ever' rally on eve of election
Around 200,000 people have reportedly come out in support of
opposition party Georgian Dream in what may become the biggest ever
rally to hit Tbilisi. Georgia is set to cast votes in a parliamentary
poll Monday. The Georgian capital was strewn with blue colors Saturday as the
South Caucasian country's parliamentary campaign comes to a climax. “One of my promises has already come true: all of Georgia is standing united today,” opposition leader Bidzina Ivanishvili told tens of thousands people gathered at central Freedom Square to show their support for him. “All Georgia tells the authorities…”
“…leave!” responded the crowd.
“The authorities cannot pretend they did not know what happens in our prisons,”
continued the billionaire tycoon, referring to a recent torture scandal
that led to the resignations of several top officials and left
President Mikhail Saakashvili playing spin-doctor for himself at the UN
General Assembly. Reports on the rally's turnout vary, with
Russia's RIA Novosti agency estimating the demo to be 200,000 strong,
while the multinational channel MTRK MIR says 300,000 people were in
attendance. MIR remarks that Tbilisi's last most massive rally was held
in 2010, and gathered around 100,000 people.
Tycoon-turned-politician
Ivanishvili founded his public movement, Georgian Dream, in December
2011. In April 2012, it transformed into an opposition coalition, called
Georgian Dream–Democratic Georgia. The current election is generally
viewed as a struggle between billionaire Ivanishvili, whose wealth at
$6.4 billion equals nearly half of Georgia's economic output, and
President Mikhail Saakashvili.
Saakashvili’s role in Georgian
history remains highly controversial. In its "Doing Business 2012"
report, the World Bank named Georgia a "top reformer."
According to that assessment, the South Caucasus country, which serves
as an important transit route for oil and gas to the West, showed an
astounding improvement since 2005 in terms of the ease of doing
business, climbing from 112th to 16th place.
But
the opposition has little praise to spare for the leader. Nino
Burdzhanadze, the ex-chairperson of the Georgian Parliament and
Saakashvili’s former ally, claims that "we have less democracy today than before the revolution",
as Spiegel quotes her. Like many others, Burdzhanadze accuses the
president of authoritarian dictatorship that has suppressed the
opposition, while engaging the country in all-around corruption and
money laundering.
Saakashvili, in his turn, says the Georgian opposition are simply Kremlin agents. Ivanishvili
has taken great pains to deny the claim. During the rally, he said he
did not go to politics after some foreign powers told him so, but
because he could not come to terms with the escalating poverty and
injustice that are choking the country. "Saakashvili's system must be destroyed. The fate of the country is being decided at these elections," Ivanishvili told the rally, promising to create “a truly democratic country free of violence or fear.”
A parallel
opposition demonstration was held in Georgia’s second largest city,
Kutaisi. Rally organizers say tens of thousands people are there. Ivanishvili’s
party, whose platform seems to be centered on displacing the incumbent
president, is expected to come out as the main rival to Saakashvili’s
United National Movement. UNM’s convention Friday gathered
around 70 thousand people at a central stadium in Tbilisi. On Saturday,
Saakashvili also addressed voters in the port city of Poti, stressing
the upcoming election may be a turning point for the country. “A force which wants to destroy everything we have created in the last nine years is keen to grab power,” he told supporters, hinting at the coalition headed by Ivanishvili.
Source: http://rt.com/news/georgia-opposition-rally-election-305/
Georgia Holds Its Breath
Rocked by a prison scandal and allegations from all sides over illicit campaigning, this tiny country's election has become a brawl between political heavyweights
On a warm night last week, a crowd gathered in the
Georgian capital city of Tbilisi in front of the glass facade of the Philharmonia
building. The crowd members were young, oppositional, and angry; disorganized but peaceful.
A police car approached and was met with a cacophony of whistles, more mocking
than aggressive.
The crowd had been drawn onto the street by the release of
shocking videos by two opposition television channels showing systematic abuse
in one of Tbilisi's prisons. One clip, showing the rape of a male prisoner with a
broom, was especially shocking for a socially conservative society. Reports of
the terrible conditions in the country's prisons had flickered through Georgian
households for years. Georgia now has the highest prison population per capita
in Europe, with 24,000 inmates, four times as many as when Mikheil Saakashvili
was first elected president in 2004. But Georgia's leaders had ignored reports
of prison brutality, trumpeting
instead police reform and their
successful "zero tolerance on crime" policy.
Now they were being proved spectacularly wrong and at the
worst possible moment, just 13 days before crucial parliamentary elections on Oct.
1.
Saakashvili reacted quickly to contain the damage. The
powerful 31-year-old interior minister, Bacho Akhalaia -- who had been in office
only two months -- resigned. The ombudsman who had long been registering unheeded
alarm about prison conditions was made the new prisons minister. But the
president then muddied his message. Clearly someone close to the opposition had
chosen to release the videos at this moment to embarrass the government, but
Saakashvili lashed out with an improbable line of attack that harked back to the August 2008 war,
telling a public meeting that the revelations were part of a
Moscow-orchestrated "conspiracy" against Georgia, ahead of the
election, with the goal of forcing Georgia "back into Russia's
imperial space."
The problem for the president is that when he said he was
"shocked" and "very angry" and knew nothing about the state of his prisons, few
believed him. The country's highly punitive criminal-justice system was built
by a group of men who now hold the jobs of prime minister, justice minister and
defense minister. The general state of Georgia's prisons, if not the graphic
details, was an open secret. Most residents of Tbilisi know someone -- a
neighbor or a cousin -- who has been in prison, often for a relatively small
offense, such as marijuana possession or theft. A few months ago, I heard a
terrible account of life inside Georgia's prisons from a businessman named
Lasha Shanidze who had ended up on the wrong side of the government in a
complex financial dispute and is now
a fugitive in the United States. Shanidze described a regime in which he and his
fellow inmates were forced to eat rotten food and subjected to nighttime
beatings.
One Tbilisi taxi driver
told me that his neighbor had done a four-year sentence at age 18 for
theft and that he had spent three months of it in the Gldani prison, the
facility at the center of the scandal. "He told me that three months
there was so awful
it was like 10 years of his life," my driver said. "The guards would
burst into the cells at 2 or 3 in the morning and beat people randomly."
Even before the scandal, the governing party was facing a
strong challenge. Now its hopes of maintaining its monopoly of power are under
much greater threat.
The Oct. 1 election marks a turning point for Georgia.
Besides being a contest for Parliament, it is also a shadow leadership
election. In 2013, after Saakashvili's second and final term as president
expires, a new constitution will take effect, transferring key powers from the
president to the prime minister, who will be elected by Parliament. Whoever
controls the new Parliament will get to elect the prime minister next year.
Greek scholar Ilia Roubanis has
called Georgian politics
"pluralistic feudalism," a competition between a patriarchal leader who
enjoys uncontested rule over the country and a leader of the opposition bidding
to unseat him and acquire the same. The current contest fits
that description. Put simply, it is a clash of two narratives about Georgia set
out by two big personalities: Saakashvili, and his main challenger, billionaire
Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Saakashvili has been personally leading the election
campaign for the governing party, the United National Movement, even though he
is not running for Parliament himself. His main message is that, like the
medieval Georgian king David the Builder, he has been building a new nation and
he and his team deserve to be allowed to finish the job.
In that spirit, on Sept. 16, Saakashvili formally reopened
a famous medieval landmark, the 11th-century Bagrati Cathedral (rebuilt
in controversial fashion, overriding the objections of UNESCO that the
construction work interfered with the original medieval fabric of the church). On
Sept. 27, the new airport, named after David
the Builder, in Georgia's second-largest city, Kutaisi, is due to open. A new glass-and-steel sci-fi Parliament
building in Kutaisi is also scheduled to be
completed in October.
The opposition says that this Georgia is a Potemkin village hiding
the miserable condition of large segments of the population, such as the unemployed,
rural farmers -- and prisoners. Until last year, Saakashvili was in control of
the script, aided by the uncritical news coverage of Georgia's two main
television channels. But the countermessage now has a powerful figurehead in
Ivanishvili, Georgia's wealthiest man, estimated by Forbes to be worth $6.4
billion. Ivanishvili, who built his fortune in the metals industry during the
heady privatization period in the 1990s, is an enigmatic and colorful figure, best
known for his lavish philanthropy, large modern-art collection, and private zoo
-- before he unexpectedly decided to enter Georgian politics in 2011, saying he
planned to become prime minister and turn around the economy. He has since built
a coalition of six very diverse parties named Georgian Dream after a song by his rapper son.
Both the governing United National Movement, or UNM, and
Georgian Dream are loose coalitions, held together by their powerful
patriarchal leaders.
Saakashvili's governing UNM combines a free market Westernizing
ideology with the bureaucratic machine of a typical post-Soviet governing party.
Georgian Dream is an even more diverse alliance whose constituents' only common connection is
loyalty to Ivanishvili and opposition to Saakashvili. It has support in Tbilisi
from urban democratic professionals who want to see the current governing
party's monopoly on power broken. Outside the capital, it frequently plays on
economic populism and barely concealed xenophobia. A third group in the alliance comprises former bureaucrats
who evidently see Georgian Dream as their route back to power. This makes for mixed
messages: Georgian Dream has attracted some of Georgia's most pro-Western
opposition members and puts forward a foreign-policy platform that commits them
to EU and NATO membership, while its new television station, Channel 9, has
lashed out at local Western-funded organizations such as the National
Democratic Institute and Transparency International for alleged covert support
of the Georgian government. I saw
the clash of narratives in bright colors in the Black Sea city of Batumi.
Batumi has been Georgia's boomtown and Saakashvili's pet project for the past
few years. The president spends as much time there as in Tbilisi and has invited
a stream of foreign visitors to visit, including U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton in June.
It is an impressive sight. A forest of new skyscrapers has
sprung up, changing what used to be a shabby seaside resort into a modern city.
Batumi now has a Sheraton, a Radisson, and a string of new casinos. Tens of
thousands of tourists poured into the resort this summer.
On the other hand, I found locals much less enthusiastic
than I expected. Their complaints covered the spectrum from merely disappointed
("local people aren't getting jobs") to the fully paranoid and
xenophobic ("the Turks are buying up the city," "Turkey is
working with Saakashvili to recapture Batumi"). Batumi was part of the
Ottoman Empire until 1878, and Mustafa Kemal Ataturk almost reconquered it in 1921.
Several buildings have become symbolic battlegrounds. The
Georgian and Turkish governments jointly agreed to plans to reconstruct a
mosque, built by the Ottomans in the mid-19th century and destroyed by the
Soviet regime in the 1930s. But the project appears to have been halted after anti-Turkish protests
supported by the Georgian Orthodox Church and local opposition activists,
several of them members of Georgian Dream.
A less pious building project is Batumi's Trump Tower. A massive
billboard stands on the seafront proclaiming the spot where it will be
constructed. The Donald himself has become friendly with Saakashvili and visited
Batumi this April. The opposition points out that he has merely lent
his name to the project, not invested any money, and calls
it an empty PR stunt designed to boost the image of the government, rather
than the Georgian economy. The local parliamentary race pits Giorgi Baramidze, a
long-standing Saakashvili ally and deputy prime minister, against a local
Georgian Dream-affiliated populist named Murman Dumbadze. I went to see both of
them.
Like most of the current Georgian elite, Baramidze still
looks improbably young. (He is in fact 44.) He speaks excellent English, having
studied at Georgetown University. He ridiculed the local opposition as
xenophobic and made a robust defense of the mosque and the Turkish presence in
Batumi. "How can we isolate ourselves from our biggest neighbor after
Russia?" he asked. On the mosque issue he said, "We internationally
are not apologetic on this question." The current government can be
faulted on many things but not on tolerance to foreigners and other faiths.
Baramidze's democratic tolerance did not extend to the
opposition, however. One of the legitimate complaints of the Georgian
opposition for years is that no television channel that criticizes the
government is allowed to broadcast nationwide. Under much international
pressure, the Georgian Parliament in July passed a law known as "Must Carry,"
obliging cable operators to carry all television channels, including the
Ivanishvili-affiliated station, Channel 9. But despite the calls of many
outside actors, including the U.S. government, the legislation expires on Election
Day. "Why not continue it?" I asked Baramidze.
"We have to bear in mind that Channel 9 might serve as
a catalyst to give Russia a free hand to act against Georgia [after the
election]," Baramidze told me implausibly, spinning the idea that to allow
the opposition channel airtime might be a prelude to the rumble of Russian
tanks.
Dumbadze, the Georgian Dream candidate, is as gaunt as
Baramidze is chubby. He has a reputation for old-fashioned Georgian nationalism
and was expelled this March from the liberal-leaning Republican
Party after insulting an ethnic Russian colleague.
Dumbadze has trimmed his xenophobic rhetoric, or rather
repackaged it as economic nationalism. He told me that he had opposed the
mosque reconstruction and that "Batumi was behind me," but that he
would now favor it if local Muslims wanted it. The problem, Dumbadze claimed,
was that the government was discriminating against Georgians in favor of Turks,
who were getting the jobs and investment opportunities the locals were being
denied. As a result, Georgians are being forced to travel to Turkey as guest
workers (something others confirmed for me in Batumi). "I think that a Turkish
passport and a Georgian passport are not equal here," he said. "A Turkish
passport is stronger." During the protests against the mosque, he promised that he would "raze
it to the ground with bulldozers."
This anti-foreigner pitch may well win him votes. Throughout
Georgia, I noticed the paradox that the governing party is doing badly in areas
where foreign investment has been strongest, perhaps because it failed to make its
case to the local population.
At Batumi's Press Cafe, my host and guide to the city,
Aslan Chanidze, helped me understand why. A journalist and nongovernmental
activist, he was fielding telephone calls from his home village. A Turkish
company, assisted by the Georgian government, is planning to build a new
hydroelectric power station nearby. According to Chanidze's telling of it, in
classic post-Soviet style, neither of them appeared to have explained to the
local population what they were doing, and villagers were being told to sell
their land at deflated prices.
All this fits with what many nongovernmental
reports have been saying for
years: that modern Georgia's biggest problem is the absence of rule of law. In
its enthusiasm to build a new Georgia, Saakashvili's government has been
cavalier in its regard for people's property rights. Georgia is a land of regions, each one fighting its own
election. I traveled north along the Black Sea coast to Zugdidi, a small,
bustling town on the border with the Russian-supported breakaway region of
Abkhazia.
Nothing in this election is straightforward. In terms of the
outlook of its candidates, Zugdidi is the mirror image of Batumi. Here, the Georgian
Dream candidate is Irakli Alasania, a Westernized, English-speaking
politician who split from the government after the 2008 war. He had served as Georgia's
envoy for talks with Abkhazia, when he was then ambassador to the United Nations -- and is
now talked about as a presidential candidate for 2013. The governing party's
candidate here is Roland Akhalaia, the chief prosecutor and Soviet-style strongman
of the region.
Akhalaia is also the father of two fierce and powerful sons,
Rata, the deputy defense minister, and Bacho, the interior minister who
resigned over the prisons scandal. He did not want to see me, so I
spent most of the day with Alasania and his supporters. As we drove out to a village named Orsantia to see an
opposition rally, we spotted Akhalaia, the government candidate, talking to a
crowd of 100 or so voters on the road, but my driver was contemptuous of this
as an exercise in democracy. "Look at the minibuses, one, two, three," he said,
pointing to the vehicles parked behind the crowd. "They've bussed people in." (Although
I was not able to substantiate the claim, it's one I heard frequently from
opposition supporters around the country.)
Orsantia is a large village dotted with fruit trees and palms.
Talking to some of the locals waiting to hear Alasania speak, I was struck by
the fact that they didn't mention the conflict in Abkhazia on their doorstep at
all. In fact, the only time anyone mentioned Abkhazia was to say something I
hadn't expected at all: that young men from the village were going to work in the
breakaway region's resorts of Pitsunda and Gagra for the summer.
The Georgian Dream opposition movement is well organized in
the region. A score of volunteers in blue T-shirts had brought people out of
their houses and had set up a microphone on what passed for Orsantia's village
green. Alasania arrived in a four-wheel-drive car and stood under a couple of
pine trees talking to a large crowd. He talked fast and people listened mainly
in silence, frowning.
On the fringe of the rally, I talked to two well-dressed
elderly men, a former policeman and a former factory manager. Neither had a job
anymore; both were hoping for a Georgian Dream victory in the election. When I
mentioned the word "progress," one of them shot back at me, "Any progress is
thanks to the West. It's because you are here."
Back in Zugdidi, I talked to Alasania in the Pizza Diadem
cafe, along with two more Iraklis (confirming my long-held view that Georgia
could do with a few more first names) -- one his spokesman, the other a young
businessman and the candidate in the nearby town of Abasha.
Alasania said he had faced a lot of harassment and
obstruction earlier in the summer, but in the last three weeks things
had gotten
much easier and he could campaign freely, a change he attributed to the
arrival
of long-term election observers from the Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). He said he was confident of
victory but was worried that people in the villages were conservative
and might
be afraid to come out and vote.
What were the main issues in the election? Jobs. When I
mentioned that U.S. President Barack Obama's biggest problem was an
"8-point-something unemployment rate," Irakli the businessman laughed and
said, "In Abasha, it's 98-point-something." (Officially Georgia's
national jobless rate is 16 percent, but a recent
poll found that 34 percent of respondents were unemployed and looking for
work.)
To be a voter in this election in Georgia is to be caught in
an almost mythical battle between clashing titans: a government with a strong
record that is widely felt to have grown arrogant and lost touch with ordinary
people, and an opposition, led by the country's richest man, that has lots of
energy but lacks a well-articulated program apart from "Georgia Without Misha
[as in President Saakashvili]."
Traveling around Georgia I sensed a mood that was palpably
more sympathetic to the opposition and the idea of change. Polls that had
given the governing party a wide lead were probably misleading -- they also
recorded a large number of "don't-knows" and "refuse-to-answers" -- voters more likely
to cast their ballots for Georgian Dream. Yet many had given up hope in the
government while not being fully convinced by Ivanishvili. I also saw that the
governing party was much better mobilized. On Election Day, the UNM will be
able to count on most of the support of public employees and also of the
country's ethnic minorities, Armenians and Azeris, who tend to vote for the
government in Georgian elections so as to prove their loyalty to the state and
also because the current government has a better record when it comes to protecting minority
groups.
Another important factor is that the electoral system is severely
weighted in favor of the government. Almost half -- 73 of the 150 seats being
contested -- are in local constituencies where the UNM is fielding official
candidates who can get out the vote and many of the opposition challengers are
little-known outsiders. It is theoretically possible that the
governing party could emulate George W. Bush in 2000, by winning a majority
despite losing the popular vote.
Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream coalition has spent much of its
time campaigning with one hand tied behind its back, hit by multimillion-dollar
punitive fines for alleged improper use of funds and with much more restricted
access to television than the governing party. International observers have slapped the government's
wrists for this, with a team from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly saying that "the
fines levied are disproportionate and apparently being levied in a selective
manner mainly targeting one political subject."
If the opposition does worse on Election Day than it expects,
this could be a recipe for trouble, as Georgian Dream contests the results and
the government defends its victory. The opposition wants to evoke the parallel
of the Rose Revolution that followed 2003's disputed election, while the
government summons up fears of the civil war that wracked Georgia in the early
1990s. Plenty of people I met in Georgia were bracing themselves for
confrontation. Most were worried that it would be hard to mediate
between the two warring sides.
In Zugdidi, an old friend and yet another Irakli, journalist
Irakli Lagvilava, argued that Georgia has come a long way in the last 20 years,
allowing him to put a positive spin on this election. "After the era of
[nationalist President Zviad] Gamsakhurdia, we learned that we shouldn't shoot
each other; after the Rose Revolution we learned that next time we have to
choose our leaders by elections," he said. "We are making progress."
Progress, so long as the polarized forces fighting this
election reconcile themselves to the idea that outright victory is unlikely and
they may have to share the political space, not dominate it.
Source: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/26/georgia_holds_its_breath?page=full
What Will "Georgian Dream" Bring Armenia?
On the threshold of October 10
parliamentary elections in Georgia, Leader of Georgian Dream Bidzina
Ivanishvili told his electorate in Zugdigi on September 23 that his coalition
studies restoration of railway and road communication with Abkhazia. The given
statement is quite interesting to Armenia, which is semi-blockaded by Turkey
and Azerbaijan. In case the statement of the Georgian billionaire politician
goes beyond his PR-campaign and comes true, Armenia will get an opportunity to
overcome both the economic and geopolitical blockade. This, in turn, will lead
to a new reality and transformation of the balance of forces in the South
Caucasus.
The 221km Abkhazian section of the railway
extending from Psou roadside stop (Abkhazia-Russia border) up to Ingur roadside
stop (Abkhazia-Georgia border) has been closed for Armenia and Georgia since
Aug 14 1992 after the railway bridge over the River of Ingur (dividing Georgia
from Abkhazia) was detonated. It was protection of the railway that became the
reason for penetration of the troops of the Georgian State Council to the
territory of Abkhazia in 1992. Afterwards, at the very beginning of the
intervention, traffic via Abkhazia was stopped. The last Armenian train running
to Sochi via Abkhazia at the moment of Georgian intervention was burnt in
military actions. Passengers had to escape and get to Russia on their own.
Therefore, the South Caucasus Railway
(SCR) under concession of the Russian Railways is engaged in transportation of
passengers and freight inside Armenia and to Georgia via Poti and Batumi. Out
of four locomotive changing points of the SCR only one with Georgia
(Ayrum-Sadakhlo) operates. The other three: Akhuryan-Dogukapi (Turkey),
Yeraskh-Velidag (Azerbaijan) and Ijevan-Barkhudarli (Azerbaijan) have been
idling since 1991. There are no real perspectives of their restoration for
obvious reasons. In case the Abkhazian section of the railway is restored,
Armenia will get an opportunity to extend railway communication from Poti to
Krasnodar region and farther by means of Ayrum-Sadakhlo joint. This will spoil
all the efforts of Turkey and Azerbaijan to isolate Armenia from international
communication projects. Hence, Ankara
and Baku will lose the pressure key they have been using in the Karabakh peace
process for already 18 years.
In addition, railway communication with
the world is of vital importance for Armenia, considering the launch of the
Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway project that will even more isolate
Armenia. In the light of the unpromising Iran-Armenia railway project, which
requires billions of investments, Russia and Iran will sign an agreement for
construction of Kazvin-Resht-Astara railway during the visit of Vladimir
Yakunin, Head of the Russian Railways OJSC, to Iran in October. Besides Russia,
the project involves the Azerbaijani Railways CJSC and Iranian Railways. The
project is of big importance for development of the North-South transport
corridor, which mostly extends in the territory of Russia. Freight activity of
the corridor is estimated at 25-26 million tons by 2015.
So, in case of Ivanishvili’s victory in
the upcoming parliamentary and especially in the presidential elections in
Georgia, the Armenian leadership should leave aside its eternal projects of
Iran-Armenia railway and opening of the corroded railway section with Turkey.
Yerevan must at least display extreme interest in the Georgian politician’s
statement made in Zugdigi. In the light of the recent penitentiary scandals in
Georgia and the constantly falling rating of Mikheil Saakashvili, the chances
of the Georgian Dream and Ivanishvili keep growing. If Abkhazia takes interest
in the given suggestion, which is quite probable given Moscow’s interests in it,
the North-South motorway currently being constructed in Armenia will get big
opportunities to extend via Abkhazia. This, in turn, will bring Armenia back to
the railway and motor communication it enjoyed in the Soviet period, and allow
the country to stimulate economic development and strengthen its positions in
the negotiations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Getting out of the semi-blockade,
Yerevan will have what to contrast with Baku and Ankara that went too far.
Source: http://www.arminfo.info/index.cfm?objectid=376B85B0-0714-11E2-8C56F6327207157C
From Philanthropist to Public
Enemy in Georgia
On a hill overlooking this ancient city,
Georgia’s richest man has built himself a glassy, postmodern fortress,
its interior a sleek Escher construction of orbs and optical illusions.
The billionaire’s balcony offers a view of a snaking river and, across
it, the futuristic, egg-shaped blue glass dome atop the residence of his
former friend, President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Though both men’s palaces feature see-through walkways suspended at
great height, any resemblance is purely coincidental.
“He wanted to come, but I didn’t invite him,” said Bidzina Ivanishvili, 56, whose net worth Forbes has estimated at $6.4 billion.
He was striding past wall-size canvases by Roy Lichtenstein and Damien
Hirst, high-quality copies he substituted for the originals late last
year when, as he put it, “my insurance company told me it had begun to
smell bad and I started to take things out.”
Mr. Ivanishvili, a reclusive philanthropist
whom the president has dubbed the Count of Monte Cristo, sent tremors
through Georgia’s political scene when he announced in October that he
would use his fortune to oppose the government and finance his own
political ambitions. It was a shocking challenge to Mr. Saakashvili, who
has comfortably dominated politics here since the 2008 war with Russia,
and the authorities took immediate steps to stop him.
The conflict, which already had the attributes of a 19th-century novel,
seemed to harden this week into a protracted stare-down between the two
men. On Wednesday, the authorities upheld their earlier decision to
revoke Mr. Ivanishvili’s Georgian citizenship, which bars him from
running for office or financing parties ahead of parliamentary elections
in October. Their position seemed to soften late on Thursday, when
lawmakers proposed amending the Constitution to allow noncitizens to run
for office. Mr. Ivanishvili invited Tbilisi’s diplomatic corps to his headquarters on Thursday to condemn the citizenship decision.
“I don’t think this has much effect on me, but it has a great effect on
Saakashvili,” Mr. Ivanishvili said in an interview. “He will lose face.
The euphoria which still exists in America and Europe, where he is
trying to fool them into thinking he is a democrat, that euphoria will
disappear.”
Mr. Ivanishvili, 56, has long been the subject of rumor in this city.
After making his fortune in the Russian metal and banking industries, he
returned to his home village of Chorvila and began providing his
neighbors with houses, roads and cash, like a feudal lord. His legend
was enhanced by tales about his two albino sons — the eldest, Bera, is a
famous rapper — and a menagerie said to include zebras and penguins.
For years, he spread his Russian-earned wealth around lavishly — and anonymously. Mr. Ivanishvili was the mysterious buyer who paid $95.2 million for Picasso’s “Dora Maar With Cat”
at Sotheby’s in 2006, sending art dealers into a tizzy. In Georgia, he
anonymously financed church projects like the gold-domed cathedral that
towers over the capital, and government ones like renovations of 500
schools, money to elevate state salaries and boots for the army. (“They
were running around in slippers,” he said.)
Mr. Ivanishvili said his ties to Mr. Saakashvili were finally severed
during a phone call in January 2008, when he told the president never to
call him again. He said he took great pains to conceal his political
plans, speaking in whispers with his wife even at home out of fear that
he was under surveillance. Twice, he said, he arranged flights out of
the country and then canceled them.
“The decision was this: I needed to completely destroy my world view
relating to philanthropy, as well as my relationship with him, and the
fact that for 55 years I have been asserting that I would not go into
politics,” he said. “I tormented myself a great deal.”
Georgia’s government acted immediately after Mr. Ivanishvili’s bombshell. Just four days later, the billionaire was stripped of his Georgian
citizenship, on the basis that he had never informed officials that he
was a citizen of France. (Georgian law permits dual citizenship only
with special permission. Mr. Ivanishvili also had Russian citizenship,
though he renounced it in December.) Two weeks later, the central bank
seized millions of dollars as part of a money-laundering investigation
of his bank. The governing party then introduced limits on corporate
campaign financing, which would prevent his companies from bankrolling
candidates.
Giga Bokeria, Mr. Saakashvili’s national security adviser, said he was
not worried that Mr. Ivanishvili would buy the votes of Georgian
citizens, but that unlimited use of his wealth — it amounts to more than
a third of the country’s gross domestic product, by some measures —
“will corrupt the political process as such.” He said Georgia’s
opposition was just beginning to embrace healthy practices like
conceding after an electoral defeat.
“A new political culture was appearing, and that includes the idea that
parties should stand on their own feet, and now this huge guy
financially appears on the landscape,” Mr. Bokeria said. “Now all these
groups, they are not looking to build their own support, it’s just a big
oligarch guy — he calls the shots and he orders the melody.”
The government has also charged that Mr. Ivanishvili is acting in the
interest of Russia, offering as evidence his extensive holdings there:
$1.1 billion, by his own account, which he says he is trying to
liquidate. Mr. Saakashvili rarely mentions Mr. Ivanishvili by name, but
he alludes to him frequently, warning of “new political forces” and
“forces of darkness” and an infusion of Russian cash.
Among Mr. Ivanishvili’s responses has been to adopt a government strategy, hiring lobbyists in Washington
to spread the word about the measures being taken against him. Elements
of the case — like aggressive questioning of opposition activists by a
state auditing agency — have drawn rebukes from American officials.
“For years, on our money, Saakashvili had strong lobbyists, and played
with our money, and tried to lie and show a facade of democracy,” Mr.
Ivanishvili said. “I can also permit myself to hire some lobbying
companies, in America among other places, and we can try to show the
real picture.”
Mr. Ivanishvili’s political platform is vague and, in some respects,
grandiose. He proposes to leave the office of prime minister after two
years, a period he says is sufficient to create an independent court
system and purge what he calls “elite corruption.” Asked about whether
the standoff would culminate in street demonstrations, he answered with
serene confidence.
“If I go out, I can gather 100,000 people in three minutes, but I don’t
want to,” he said. “Until the elections. After the elections, if there
is falsification, we will defend our votes.”
Mr. Ivanishvili’s parliamentary coalition, Ivanishvili-Georgian Dream,
hopes to win half the votes in October elections. A poll performed by
the National Democratic Institute and leaked to the Georgian news media
last month suggested that it would fall well short of that, giving Mr.
Saakashvili’s party 47 percent of the vote and Mr. Ivanishvili’s
coalition trailing with 10 percent. But the same poll showed that the
public overwhelmingly supports Mr. Ivanishvili in his fight to regain
his citizenship.
People approached on the street this week were iffy about Mr.
Ivanishvili as a politician, but they raved about his philanthropic
work, his support for museums and theaters, and the riches granted to
his neighbors in Chorvila. Nodar Melikidze, 48, who is unemployed, said Mr. Ivanishvili had paid for one of his friends’ cancer treatments.
Lela, 54, said Wednesday’s decision about the citizenship left a sour
taste in her mouth. “They showed they are very confident in themselves,
and they don’t care about people’s opinions,” said Lela, who would not
give her last name for fear of repercussions. “They have washed their
hands of us. Many people were not going to vote for Ivanishvili, but by
taking this decision the government showed it ignored people.”
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/06/world/europe/jump-to-politics-turns-georgian-billionaire-into-public-enemy-no-1.html
Russian Billionaire Ivanishvili Stripped of Georgian Citizenship
The Georgian authorities have deprived Bidzina Ivanishvili,
a Georgian-born billionaire living in Russia, of his citizenship,
citing the nation's ban on dual citizenships. The move came after
Ivanishvili, who is ranked 25th by Forbes in its
list of Russian businessmen with an estimated fortune of $5.5 billion,
said last week he was ready to sell his businesses in Russia and give
away his Russian and French passports in order to challenge incumbent
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's party in next year's
parliamentary elections.
The Georgian Justice Ministry issued a statement saying Ivanishvili
was granted French citizenship after receiving his Georgian passport in
July 2004. "Proceeding from this, given the provisions of the Georgian
constitution and the organic law on Georgian citizenship, Bidzina
Ivanishvili's Georgian citizenship has been suspended," the statement
reads. In line with the Georgian constitution, a Georgian citizen cannot
simultaneously be a citizen of another state. The document does not
specify when Ivanishvili was granted his French passport.
On October 7, Ivanishvili announced plans to set up a political party
uniting "healthy" political forces in Georgia with the goal of
achieving an absolute majority in 2012 elections. The 56-year-old
businessman said in a statement his decision was "due
to the total monopoly held by Mikheil Saakashvili and the recently-made
constitutional amendments which demonstrated Saakashvili's desire to
stay in power regardless of all constitutional terms." The businessman
said he was ready to assume the post of Georgian prime minister or
parliamentary speaker.
Source: http://en.ria.ru/world/20111011/167577199.html
Armed Gangs Formed in Georgia 'to Repress Opposition'
Illegal paramilitary groups are being set up in western Georgia on
the order of President Mikhail Saakashvili, says opposition leader
Irakli Alasania. Armed groups about 500-strong, comprised mainly of criminals and
participants of the August 2008 war in South Ossetia, have been created
in the republic within past two months, Alasania stated on Tuesday. The
aim of these formations is to “intimidate” and repress the opposition,
he added.
“I’m addressing Saakashvili directly – there is no
need for hysterics. But it’s necessary to take immediate measures to
dissolve and disarm these gunmen units, since the opposition is simply
willing to come to power through elections,” he said, as cited by Interfax.
Defense Minister Bacho Akhalaia argued that armed groups being formed in the western regions are Georgia’s “reserve forces” and called Alasania’s claims nonsense, News Georgia reports. Meanwhile,
according to the Alasania – the leader of Free Democrats and former
Tbilisi envoy to the UN – the minister is among those participating in
setting up the paramilitary units.
Last week, during a meeting with Tbilisi-based foreign diplomats, Alasania claimed that the Georgian leader “is preparing for a civil war and confrontation.”
The politician urged the diplomats to interfere “before it is too late”
and warned of a possibility of the Syrian scenario in the former soviet
republic if nothing is done before the October parliamentary vote.
Saakashvili in response stated that “some politicians” were trying “to drag us into election campaigning.” He accused the opposition of being “obsessed” with getting seats in the government, while his own ambition is to think about “enterprises, new resorts and cities, new jobs, new schools,” Georgian
media reported. Trying to use the opposition weapon against them, he
hit back, stating his opponents’ statements regarding the Syrian
scenario meant that they were “threatening with thousands of victims.”
Alasania said that recent developments and Saakashvili’s “increasingly authoritarian manner of rule” indicated the transformation of Georgia into “a totalitarian state.” The opposition, he stressed, was determined to get into power through the vote rather than violence “for the first time in 20 years.”
Source: http://rt.com/politics/georgia-opposition-saakashvili-military-998/
The United States and Political Power in Georgia
President Mikheil Saakashvili’s government has so strongly cemented
Georgia-US ties that even opposition politicians, such as billionaire
Bidzina Ivanishvili who ignored the US until now, must reach out to
Washington ahead of elections.
Georgia is unquestionably the
most Western-leaning among the formerly Soviet-ruled countries. Uniquely
in Georgia, moreover, contenders for political power regard the United
States as an external source of legitimacy and instance of appeal. This
attitude may be value-based or tactical from case to case, but it gives
the US distinctive influence. Washington’s word and the word of the US
Embassy in Tbilisi carry great weight, are being sought out and
interpreted (sometimes over-interpreted), and Georgian electoral
contenders are factoring the US in various ways into their domestic
political strategies.
The US takes this role seriously and
sometimes gravely, both in its official foreign policy and at the level
of Washington politics. American value judgments on Georgian politics
and legislation add up to a continuous mentoring, significantly
impacting on Georgia at pre-election and election time.
Although
US officials may disclaim such a role, the United States is accepted as
an external referee of Georgian politics. This role focuses on process
issues far more than on policy issues. The European Union occasionally
plays a similar role in Tbilisi (in the collective format of the heads
of missions), but it is clearly outweighed by US activity and influence.
Thus,
US organizations sponsor and conduct influential polls of public
opinion; and the US Embassy is expected and often asked to assess
controversial political events or legislation. Opposition parties
regularly take anti-government complaints to the same embassy. Every
Congressional document from Washington is minutely parsed in Tbilisi,
while US officials from President Barack Obama to ambassador-designate
Richard Norland are setting “tests” of democratic behavior for Georgia
(Obama’s “transfer of power” test, Norland’s “elections as litmus test” –
US Senate hearings, March 21).
Ivanishvili, whose wealth equals
one half of Georgia’s annual GDP, emerged recently from reclusion to
launch a bid for state power with his “Georgian Dream” movement.
Ivanishvili maintains long-standing, continuing business ties to Russia.
He and other Georgian Dream politicians never evidenced interest toward
the United States until launching their power bid, and have no record
of support for Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Theirs is an
intensely provincial-parochial group within the 1990s mindset. The
contrast could not be starker with Saakashvili’s young,
English-speaking, US-attuned, NATO-focused government.
Given the
US role in Georgian politics, Ivanishvili felt compelled to move from
life-long indifference to active lobbying of the US as he launched his
political campaign in Georgia. Ivanishvili picked Irakli Alasania as his
first and foremost ally, based on Alasania’s past pro-US reputation and
erstwhile diplomatic access in Washington. If this was his main
added-value to the Ivanishvili campaign, it soon proved an overestimate.
US and EU diplomats quietly waved him off when Alasania accused the
Georgian government of planning a Syria-type, “Homs” scenario in Georgia
and urged Western preventive action. Alasania, whose own party is rated
in the single digits in the polls, went on to warn that the Georgian
Dream coalition would not recognize the election results, unless they
matched Georgian Dream’s own exit poll (see EDM, March 29).
On
March 30, Ivanishvili’s office issued a lengthy statement demanding the
cessation of public opinion polling by the US National Democratic
Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI) in Georgia,
and impugning their methodology. This was Ivanishvili’s reaction to
NDI’s semiannual poll, which shows Georgian Dream trailing far behind
the governing United National Movement. The US Embassy in Tbilisi turned
down the closure demand and expressed full confidence in both
Institutes (Civil Georgia, March 30, 31).
Ivanishvili made
Alasania and his party (junior ally to Georgian Dream) the beneficiary
of Ivanishvili’s first contract with a Washington lobbying firm.
Meanwhile, four of Washington’s most expensive lobbying firms have been
hired to work for Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream movement, according
to legally required disclosure filings from the firms themselves
(Foreign Policy [Washington], April 2).
The goals of this
high-cost lobbying seem to be fourfold (in ascending order of
significance). First, to inspire comments sympathetic to Ivanishvili and
critical of the Georgian government, for playback to Georgia during the
electoral campaign. Second, to impress Georgian voters that Ivanishvili
qualifies for US political acceptance – an indispensable legitimating
factor to any contender for power in Georgia (see above). Third, using
this unprecedentedly vast lobbying apparatus, to overwhelm the debates
with misinformation about Georgia (variations on the “dictatorship”
theme), hoping thereby to alienate the US from Georgia. And fourth (the
uppermost goal), to induce US official equidistance, not only toward
Georgian political forces, but also toward any strategic outcomes of
Georgia’s elections.
The US officially takes the position that
it is only interested in Georgia’s “electoral process” and leaves it at
that. This talking point is obligatory, but the lack of a follow-up is
neither obligatory nor productive. It conveys the impression that the US
is indifferent to the elections’ strategic outcome, for its own
interests or for Georgia: instead, “process” is everything. In an
accompanying talking point, the US does not support any political force
in Georgia. This is also obligatory; but it also suggests indifference
toward the electoral contenders’ differing goals and programs, which on
one side involve state capture by a made-in-Russia billionaire.
Without
taking sides, the US can, for example, espouse a vision of Georgia’s
future ahead of elections, letting Georgian voters compare that vision
with those of the parties. The US’s unique influence in Georgia’s
internal politics does carry with it a responsibility for the strategic
outcomes.
Source: http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=39223&tx_ttnews[backPid]=228&cHash=d617e4f19ec2f82f98f37998b66fb1d9
Putin Warns US Against Rearming Georgia
Vladimir Putin said that Russia still hoped to become friends with
the Georgian people and criticized the US authorities for rearming the
current Georgian regime. At the meeting with military commanders in the Moscow Region Putin
said that the severing of relations between Russia and Georgia was not
Russia’s fault or initiative.
“This was the result of the policy that the Georgian authorities conducted back then and still attempt to conduct now,” Putin told the officers. “But
we never equated the Georgian authorities with the Georgian people. And
I still very much hope that this really brotherly nation will finally
understand that Russia is not an enemy, but is a friend and the
relations will be restored,” the Russian PM affirmed.
Putin
also called a mistake the US activities aimed to increase Georgia’s
military potential and warned Georgia against repeating attempts at
aggression. Putin was commenting on recent media reports that
read that the US and Georgian leaders had agreed on weapons supplies to
Georgia at the recent summit in Washington.
“I was not hiding
under the table and I do not know what their agreements were. But I
hope that one of us was there and he will tell us about it,” Putin joked. He added that the fact that the US was arming Georgia was no longer a secret.
“We
judge not by the words, but by the actual actions that can be easily
monitored by our intelligence services. The movement of sea vessels, the
cargo volumes can be easily controlled by the space surveillance
facilities and other surveillance means. Some of them were demonstrated
to me here today,” Putin said, adding that according to the
received data, the USA started to rearm Georgia right after the military
conflict in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008.
“Our American
partners are making a mistake. We tell them this all the time. And I
hope very much that the Georgian side will have enough common sense and
these weapons will not be used in a new aggression,” the prime minister noted.
Besides,
Putin reaffirmed his position on the asymmetrical reply to the US
missile defense initiative in Europe. Putin said that the creation of
the missile defense destroys the strategic parity ensured by the New
START treaty and Russia must reply, either by creating its own missile
defense, or by preparing an asymmetrical answer. Building Russia’s own
defense system would be expensive and the result is still questionable,
Putin told the military and thus, choosing the asymmetrical response is
wiser.
Putin announced that Russia will strengthen its
anti-aircraft forces, the anti-aircraft belts around Moscow and
strategic bases, build new radar stations and develop the weapons
systems that could break any missile defense.
“Even now the
Topol-M and the sea-based Yars are the missiles of the new generation.
It is possible to say that we are ahead of our American partners as they
still have the modernization of their nuclear potential ahead of them,” Putin noted.
Source http://rt.com/politics/russia-friendly-relations-georgia-953/
Putin Says Decision on ‘Reunification’ of Georgia ‘Already Decided’
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has often described the collapse of
the Soviet Union as “the greatest tragedy” of the 20th century, has now
said that the “reunification” of Georgia has “already been decided,” a
suggestion some of his listeners believe was a call for restoring
Moscow’s control over Georgia and even the former USSR as a whole.
In an intriguing commentary published in yesterday’s “Gazeta,” Bozhena Rynska describes both the celebration of the 80th birthday of longtime Soviet and Russian official Yevgeny Primakov and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s two very different toasts on that occasion (www.gazeta.ru/column/rynska/3287611.shtml).
The celebration took
place at the Center of International Trade. Among those in attendance
were Vice Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov, KPRF leader Gennady Zyuganov,
Governor Valentina Matviyenko, Federation Council First Vice Speaker
Aleksandr Torshin “and other government people of the first rank,”
Rynska said.
Primakov, she continued, has close ties to Georgia –
he spent part of his childhood there, his first wife was a Georgian, and
his mother was a Georgian Armenian – and consequently it was not
surprising that many of the guests at his birthday celebration were
people “with Georgian roots.”
Among them were former foreign minister Igor Ivanov (whose mother was Georgian, current foreign minister Sergey Lavrov (whose father was a Georgian Armenian), the oligarch Shalva Breus, Academician Viktor Gelovani, the singer Nani Bregvade, sculptor Zurab Tsereteli, and the master of ceremonies (“tamada”) was Moscow chief cardiologist David Ioseliani.
Rynska noted that “throughout the entire evening, Ioseliani the tamada called Putin who was sitting next to Primakov the first person of the state,” a description that others in attendance followed, including apparently some who are serving officials and thus know that in protocol terms at least that title belongs to someone else.
In his first toast, Putin said “the history of Russia is complicated and at times bloody,” the prime minister said. “But in it,” he continued, there are its Primakovs, and therefore these blood lettings end and sometimes do not even begin.” Primakov responded in kind. He said, Rynska continued, “that he will always be devoted to Mr. Putin because the latter saved Russia.”
There followed entertainment including singing. And then Putin made his second toast. He “immediately warned that he very well understood that everything said will go beyond the walls of this hall. More than that,” Rynska continued, the Russian leader indicated that he was “counting on exactly that.
Following that introduction, Putin declared that “the question of the reunification of Georgia had been decided. And that there are no questions which we cannot resolve.” Primakov, Putin continued, “is involved with this question,” a statement that sounded to many in attendance as a direct appointment in the tsarist style.
After some more singing, Putin left the hall, and the remaining participants began to talk among themselves as to what the prime minister’s intentions had been. Some of those with the closest Georgian ties concluded that Putin “’had said that he will return everything to us!’ That is, Rynska said, they heard exactly what they wanted to hear.”
“Those not affiliated to Georgia interpreted [Putin’s] programmatic toast entirely differently.” They heard as a promise that “all that we consider ours will remain ours.” And a few of them concluded that what Putin had committed himself to was “the restoration in a new form” of the entity that was once called “the Soviet Union.”
Putin’s remark certainly was enigmatic enough to permit these various interpretations. Indeed, that may have been exactly his intention. But his participation in a session with so many Russians who have Georgian roots and ties will certainly be read in Tbilisi as yet another indication that the Russian prime minister has no plans to reduce pressure on Georgia.
At the very least, it suggests that Putin’s understanding of Russia’s sphere of influence includes not just Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Moscow has already recognized as independent, but also the remainder of Georgia and the remainder of the former Soviet space, an understanding that will exacerbate rather than calm tensions in many other capitals as well.
Source: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2388736/posts
Let me share two interesting developments.
ReplyDeleteThe first is that there is a big possibility of Zhirinivsky visiting Armenia in the near future. The Armenian community in Moscow has slowly but steadily been reorganizing itself, from being purely focused on business and making money, to slowly becoming politically more active and organized.
For example, student organizations have been set up at all major universities across the country, and now one “head” organization is leading all these Armenian student organizations, which unlike in the West, are not mere for “fun” and “partying”, but are much more political and cultural.
The second is that, the soon-to-be-launched competitor of Facebook for the Islamic world, “SalamWorld” (http://salamworld.com/), which is based in Turkey, already has 3 million people who have subscribed. Their main office is in Istanbul, and they have set up offices all around the Islamic world, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, etc. It is a new organization, around 200-500 people momently work for them, and it is almost fully funded by the Kremlin. It’s based in Turkey just to deceive people. The long-term plans for the Kremlin are to be a “protector” of intelligent and moderate Muslims, disseminate pro-Russian views around the Islamic world, and of course spread anti-American (Western) ideas.
Arevordi:
ReplyDeleteAlthough the victory by Georgian Dream is a welcoming gift for the Russian government, is there a slight chance of hope for Azerbaijan to even topple Aliyev at all? With a loose cannon like Aliyev at the helm of Azerbaijan's government, it could go either way and Russia needs to exploit such an opportunity.
On the other hand, there are war clouds gathering over Turkey as it retaliated against Syria for the shelling of a Turkish border town, but I'm not really sure if the Turkish public is even willing to get into a long war that would have forced Russia to intervene. And I am not sure if the youtube comments are true or false that half of the Turkish population actually detest PM Erdogan.
Curious Observer
P.S.: Assuming that the Caucasus and Central Asia return to life under Pax Russicana, what is Putin's next target?
@ George
ReplyDeleteVery interesting. Looking forward to Zhirinovsky's and Putin's trips to Armenia. Good to see Armenians in Russia finally organizing. And good to know that Moscow is getting into the business of psy-ops. I hope what you wrote is not confidential information.
@ Curious Observer
ReplyDeleteI do not know the numbers but the Turkish population seems to be turning against their leadership's neo-Ottoman fantasies in the Middle East. Anti-war sentiments seems to be particularity high in Turkey's south-east. Easy to see why, this region in Turkey has a very large Kurdish and Alawite population. Anyway, Damascus was supposed to fall rather easily. That is why Ankara enthusiastically got involved in the Anglo-American ordeal. In other words, they didn't expect Assad to last this long. As a result, their agenda is now beginning to backfire. But let's not speak too soon for the war is not over. There is in fact a long and bloody road ahead for Syria. Let's just hope that Assad stays firm and that Russian military support for Syria keeps NATO away.
Anything is possible in Azerbaijan. No corrupt-dictatorship can be very stable. One spark and the regime in Baku will fall. And that spark may come if Baku participates in the war against Iran.
Nothing in Georgia is set in stone. We don't know Ivanishvil well enough. Time will tell which direction Tbilisi will take.
PS: Bordering Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Far East, Russia will always have serious problem to deal with.
Arevordi:
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised to hear that many Turks are actually opposing Erdogan's neo-Ottoman dreams though, since I assumed that they could have actually gone along with his plan. If Turkey does get involved in a military operation in Syria (which they have already started), would they actually get into trouble with the Kurdish presence there? I'm not sure if the Syrian and Turkish Kurds would have made thinga a lot more difficult for the Turkish Army in the long run though.
As for a counter-color revolution in Serbia, I don't think that was the case. They simply elected Nikolic as president, but I personally knew some Serbs from where I live and they have a negative opinion of Nikolic because he also supports Serbia's entry into the sinking white elephant called the European Union. At the very least, Ivica Dacic is the real pro-Russian figure in the Belgrade government.
Curious Observer
P.S.: Wouldn't the Turkish involvement in Syria end up like the US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, depending on the enemy they're facing?
For example, in March 2008 President Putin sent a message to the Organization of the Islamic Conference meeting in Senegal in which he said that ‘deeper relations of friendship and cooperation with the Islamic world are Russia’s strategic course,’ and that ‘we share concerns about the danger of the world splitting along religious and civilizational lines’ (RFE/RL, 14 March 2008).
ReplyDelete@ Curious Observer
ReplyDeleteNo matter how you look at it, Nikolic's victory in Serbia was a setback for the West. In Serbia, like in Georgia, there cannot any drastic changes in political direction. A lot of important levers in Serbia, as in Georgia, are controlled by the West. Therefore, the "counter-color revolutions" in both countries will have to be a gradual process. Nikolic was the commencement of that gradual process, and I hope Ivanishvili will prove to be as well...
"Western-style dictatorship masquerading as a democracy"
ReplyDelete"Since many Armenians these days adore what the mutilated dictatorship known as Georgia has become in recent years"
"When the Bear roared in anger, Georgia's many supporters were nowhere to be seen"
"I guess besides Turkish and Israeli advisers, Tbilisi is also employing NYPD experts as well"
Very funny but accurate comments. I enjoyed reading this post.
Saakashvili is down, but not out. His sponsors are still very much active and the waters in Tbilisi are still murky.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I hope that things will move the right way from now on. If the north-south trade route actually happens, the financial benefits will be huge for Russia, Abkhazia, Georgia, Armenia...and eventualy Iran. It must be part of Putin's Eurasian Economic Union project.
I will dare go further to raise all that to a wider strategic level by saying that if Assad prevails in Syria , and if Iraq drifts further and further towards Iranian control, the next country that Putin should "work on" would be Bulgaria. Surrounding and isolating Turkey in a grand chess game...Checkmate Erdogan.
Thank you for the comments, Zoravar.
ReplyDeleteAs I said: If Russia makes a triumphant return to the south Caucasus; if Georgia enters the Russian orbit once again; if Azerbaijan is forced to make peace with Armenia; if Syria and Iran are preserved; if Iraq moves further towards Iran... a bright new age will dawn in the region.
I realize that there are a lot of "if"s in this equation but every single one of these ifs are doable. If the game is played correctly, it can become reality.
PS: Along with Bulgaria and Serbia, Moscow needs to lure Greece as well. Just think: Russia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, Belarus, Macedonia, Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia entering some kind of a union. In the late 1980s, there was some concern in Washington that Orthodox nations would form a pact/union after the collapse of the Soviet Union...
A loose coalition bringing Armenia together with Russia and some of the other Slavic and/or Orthodox nations would be great! Russia could take cues from the 19th century when the Tsar's government was active in supporting Pan-Slavism. However, Washington and its allies in Poland and Hungary will likely attempt to counter with the rival concepts of Prometheism and the Intermarium which the Polish statesmen Józef Piłsudski tried to bring about in the early 20th century.
ReplyDeleteGetting the Greeks to join would not be easy since they are long time members of NATO and Western institutions have deep relations there, however with the economic crisis getting worse and worse Greece could conceivably tell the EU and/or NATO to piss off. Bulgaria would be even more of a challenge because it currently hosts a couple of US/NATO bases and the people there still think the EU is their salvation, though that's changing too.
Interesting developments, thanks for another great entry Arevordi. That propaganda piece by the "jamestown foundation" was just plain annoying to read, but of course we except nothing else from the group of jackals who publish the eurasia daily monitor. It's both amazing and sad to think that these evil people with their subversive agenda manage to convince so many clueless americans, georgians and even Russians and Armenians to blindly follow. Their psychological tools and knowledge are amazing, they can sell their sheep any piece of garbage they want.
ReplyDeleteZoravar, it would be a groundbreaking development if Russia started ejecting nato from eastern europe. The economic collapse in both the us and eu alone will most likely cause huge problems in Eastern Europe without the Russians lifting a finger. This would really put the squeeze on turkey as well, that mini-remnant of the ottoman empire has been artificially kept alive by the west for far too long and it is time for its inevitable collapse and break-up. BTW I really enjoy your military analysis on HyeClub, I hope you start posting more often.
Well said Sarkis! the jamestown foundation is full of know nothings and russophobes. And in recent years they have gotten quite cozy with the azeri regime.
ReplyDelete