Thoughts on the four day war of 2016 - Spring, 2016

It is said that the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time-to-time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. Armenia's tree of liberty was watered amply this spring. I salute those who gave their lives in the defense of our homeland with the words of Garegin Njdeh - Մահ չիմացեալ մահ է, Մահ իմացեալ՝ անմահություն: Our martyrs are now immortal and our tree of liberty has just grown a bit stronger.

Now, with that said, I would like to express additional thoughts on the four day war that took place between April o2 and April o6, 2016. I will most probably state things that will not be appreciated (or even comprehended) by a vast majority of my Armenian readers. Knowing that talking to Armenians about geopolitics is like talking to a five year old child about the meaning of life (i.e. pointless), I would like to ask those of you who think that war fighting is a zero sum game; or that this war was a great victory for Armenia; or that this war proved that Armenia can go it alone in the south Caucasus; or that this war showed that Russians are anti-Armenian backstabbers; or that Armenia now needs to seek security guarantees from the West, to please refrain from reading the rest of this commentary and just go back to your silly little fantasy world where: Everything is black and white; evildoers are punished and good people are awarded; Armenians are invincible when united; Armenia's allies enthusiastically go out of their way to make Armenia happy all the time; Armenia's has political choices when it comes to picking allies; and the where politics is like a domestic dispute, a street fight or a bar brawl.

Now, what happened in Nagorno Karabakh (Arm: Artsakh) was a short but violent war that shocked the world. The global community realized that there was yet another hot spot in the world that could ignite a major war. Although confined to border areas of the yet unrecognized Armenian enclave, the clash between Armenian and Azeris troops saw the utilization of newly developed attack drones, special forces, combat helicopters, main battle tanks, heavy artillery and multiple rocket launchers. About one hundred Armenian lives were lost. Armenia is a small nation. Life is therefore precious for Armenians. I hope to see their deaths serve a greater purpose for the motherland. Ultimately, that purpose would be the recognition of Artsakh's independence or its unification with Armenia. Not officially recognizing Artsakh's independence (or its reunification with Armenia) made political sense as long as the ceasefire was maintained between the two sides and the region avoided a war. Despite periodic ceasefire violations, Yerevan's grand plan worked for a long time. But it's not working anymore. Baku is desperate. Turkey is desperate. Western powers may be seeking to create a new war zone near Russia's southern border. For its part, Moscow may now be ready to finally settle the festering dispute and in doing so increase its footprint in the strategic region.

Nevertheless, Yerevan needs to recognize that the status quo which worked so well for Armenia during the past twenty years is now gradually coming to an end. The south Caucasus stands on the verge of a new chapter. There will be a new geopolitical calculus at play. It's time for official Yerevan to understand all this and thus formulate a new approach. Times like this is when the quality and depth of Armenia's alliance with the Russian Bear comes to the forefront. This is why I have been calling for closer Russian-Armenian relations for over a decade.
 
What happened in early April was not or should not have been a surprise to anyone who has been observing developments in the region during the past few years. In fact, many observers were predicting this kind of an escalation by Baku. We knew Baku was violating the ceasefire all along Armenia's and Artsakh's border with Azerbaijan on a regular basis; we knew Azerbaijan was spending billions of dollars on weapons acquisitions from around the world; we knew Baku was growing increasingly desperate as a result of falling oil prices; we knew Baku's spiritual partners in Ankara were growing increasingly belligerent; Ankara and Baku were developing closer military ties; we speculated that due to their defeat in Syria, anti-Russian interests in the region may attempt to bring problems closer to Russia's borders in the south Caucasus; there was increasing chatter that 2016 was to be the year when the dispute over Artsakh got resolved. In hindsight, Aliyev may have also been seeking to divert public attention from the so-called "Panama Papers". We therefore had been waiting for something like this to happen for some time now.

There are also subtle indicators that Baku's most recent aggression against Armenia was agreed to or even planned by not only Ankara but also Western powers. The intent may have been to punish Yerevan for its close military ties with Russia and, as noted above, to divert Moscow's attention from Syria. After all, there had been a flurry of anti-Armenian and anti-Russian rhetoric coming out of Western capitols in recent months, and the tiny, landlocked and blockaded country called Armenia was being described as a threat to NATO. I personally think that the seeds of this most recent bloodletting in the south Caucasus can be found in the contents of the following articles -
Radio Liberty: Experts Cast Doubt On Yerevan's Claims Over Nagorno-Karabakh:http://www.rferl.org/content/armenia-nagorno-karabakh-army-synergy/27656532.html

Turkey’s Lobbyists Seek U.S. Help By Calling Tiny Armenia A Big Threat: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/turkey-lobbyists-armenia_us_56fd85a6e4b0a06d58054b16
Paul Goble:  ‘Russia has De Facto Occupied Armenia,’ Yerevan Expert Says: http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/10/russia-has-de-facto-occupied-armenia.html
Western and Turkish rhetoric regarding Armenia and Artsakh was becoming rigid and increasingly bellicose. We knew Baku, Ankara and Washington were conspiring against Armenians and we also knew that all three conspirators were in Washington the week before Azeris started their offensive against Artsakh. As a matter of fact, merely two days before Azeri incursion into Artsakh, Kerry and Aliyev had a meeting at the US State Department, with the quite noticeable absence of President Sargsyan who was also in Washington at the time -
Secretary Kerry Meets with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pFp0BJvKr8

Russian experts on Aliyev-Kerry meeting in absence of Sargsyan: http://rusarminfo.ru/russian-experts-on-aliyev-kerry-meeting-in-absence-of-sargsyan/
There are Armenian and Russian observers that suspect Ankara's and Washington's hand in Baku's latest aggression. However, the power and reach of Western propaganda is so great that Western operatives embedded throughout Armenian society have maliciously spun recent developments to fit their narrative. Because Russian officials were perceived to be somewhat silent and a lot of the military hardware Azeris utilized in their assault were Russian made (although their Israeli made weapons seemed to have made a much greater impact on the battlefield), Western-financed activists like David Sanasaryan, propaganda outlets like Lragir, politicians like Raffi Hovannisian and groups like Founding Parliament have begun a full scale campaign to convince Armenians that Russia was somehow behind this most recent assault against Armenian of Artsakh. And encouraged by President Sargsyan's ill-advised criticism of Moscow's arms sales to Baku - done from a Western capitol nonetheless - the anti-Russian hysteria has reached new heights in Armenia.

From television to radio, from print news to internet political discussion forums, anti-Russian rhetoric is becoming widespread among Armenians. Consequently, Russophobia is slowly becoming mainstream in Armenia. Western activists are accusing Russia of blatantly taking Azerbaijan's side and backstabbing Armenia. They are demanding that Armenia curbs its ties with Russia and increase its ties with Western powers. They are screaming, "Russians stopped the Armenian counteroffensive to save Azerbaijan!" Needless to say, had Russians not stopped the fighting, they would have been screaming, "Russians allowed the fighting to continue so that more Armenians would die!" There is no winning with them, they have an agenda to push after all. Professional Russophobes working inside Armenian society - at the behest of Armenian officials - are behind all this disinformation and uproar. Speaking of professional Russophobes, please listen carefully to the words of Igor Muradyan, one of Armenia's top Western agents today -
Ռուսաստանը վերմակն իր վրա է փորձում քաշել և միայնակ զբաղվել ԼՂ հակամարտությամբ:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38DL_tTaVDU
Agent Muradyan, much like his ideological partners agent Gary Kasparov , agent Richard Giragosian and agent Paruyr Hayrikian, claims Russia is a defeated nation; claims Russia is an aggressor nation; claims Russia does not have the power to negotiate anything anymore; and claims Russia can no longer keep its promise about not allowing a war to happen in Artsakh. Agent Muradyan goes on to make the outrageous claim that Turkey's only interest in the region is peace and that the region's only problem is Russia. In my opinion, agent Muradyan's attempt to convince Armenians that Russia and not Turkey was behind Azerbaijan's aggression actually suggests that Baku's aggression was indeed ordered by anti-Russian interests. In my opinion, agent Muradyan's words are evidence that Azerbaijan's latest aggression against Armenia was a test not only for Armenia but also for Russia. Western-funded mercenaries posing as journalists, analysts, politicians and activists, will now do all they can, including the dissemination of false news, to make Moscow look like an accomplice in Baku's aggression against Armenia in an ultimate attempt to lead our naive sheeple to the slaughterhouse once more.

Western financed smut-peddlers want us to believe that Russia is the enemy

Long ago, Western powers realized that when trying to subjugate a foreign nation that had an uncooperative or a hostile political system, it was more effective to concentrate efforts on winning the hearts-and-minds of the targeted nation's sheeple instead. Thus was born Western psy-ops and propaganda. When economic blackmail and/or financial aid (i.e. bribes) fails to subdue a targeted government, Western powers resort to using tools such as "news media" outlets and "political activists" to encourage the nation's sheeple to think a certain way or to take to the streets in protest.

Despite Armenian pride and arrogance, Armenians remains one of the world's most easily mislead sheeple. The power of Western propaganda in Armenia is so great (largely thanks to Yerevan's complimentary politics) that Western assets planted throughout Armenian society today can take any political matter and effortlessly spin it to fully fit their self-serving political narrative - and Armenians will accept it as the truth.

Example: Although we know that Western powers and their Turkic/Islamic allies are the ones causing serious trouble throughout the Middle East and the south Caucasus; although we know that the entire Caucasus region is one bad incident away from turning back into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool once again; although we know that a Russian defeat in the south Caucasus will spell disaster for Armenia - almost all the talk we are hearing recently is about Russia "backstabbing" Armenia; Russia giving Baku the green light to attack Armenia; and about the need for Armenia to distance itself from an unreliable Russia. Armenia has become a showcase displaying the overwhelming power of Western propaganda. Consequently, Armenians are once again being manipulated and led astray.

Knowing that Armenians are emotional and politically illiterate, they are making a direct play on the sheeple's blinding emotions and well as its nationalistic sentiments.

I have been regularly monitoring political debates and discussions on Armenian television and radio for many years. Seeing the depth of our people's political ignorance and lack of foresight was always a matter of concern for me. Since the latest clashes in Artsakh, the political discourse in Armenia has been downright frightening for me. The situation we have is the direct result of Armenia's professional Russohpobes who have come to dominate the political landscape in the country in recent years. And this is the direct result of Yerevan's "complimentary politics" which has allowed the free growth of anti-Russian interests in Armenia during the past twenty-five years. Consequently, in the eyes of many if not most Armenians today, Russia is also an enemy. We are continuing to make the mistakes of our incompetent forefathers going back centuries.

The hysteria being whipped up inside Armenia by Western agents (with the tacit approval of Armenian officials) has gotten unprecedented numbers Armenians today questioning Russia's military presence on Armenian soil and some are now even shouting, "Russian occupation out of Armenia" and "Ռուսաստան սիկտիր" (Translated: Russia get the f#@k out). Yes, Armenians are telling Russians to get the f#@k out, in Turkish nonetheless, and demanding that Russians stop their "occupation" of Armenia.

Ok, let's play their mentally-ill game. Let's say Russians heeded to Armenian demands and shutdown their army base in Gyumri and air force base in Erebuni and indeed got the f#@k out of Armenia, and shortly thereafter stopped providing weaponry to Armenia, continued selling weaponry to Azerbaijan and gave Baku the green light to take Artsakh. Maybe Moscow even decided that Armenians can also do without the provision of cheep Russian natural gas. And since Russia did not have an Armenian ally in the region anymore, maybe Moscow decided that the best way to keep the region in control was to embroil it in a perpetual state of inter-ethnic warfare.

Then what?! Who or what is going to deter Turks from doing to Armenia what they have done to Cyprus and what they are currently doing to Iraq and Syria? Who will deter a full scale war in Artsakh? Who is going to stop hundreds of thousands of Armenians from fleeing the country? Will Western powers rush to Armenia's aid? Of course not. Will the mighty "Diaspora" come riding to the rescue? Of course not. Will the assholes who were protesting in Yerevan be the ones protecting Armenia's border with Turkey and purchasing the modern weaponry Armenia needs to protect itself? Of course not.

So, who is going to make sure Turks stay on their side of the border? Who is going to pay the billions of dollars for the weaponry and training Armenia will need to keep military parity with Azerbaijan? How about the already near-dead Armenian economy? Who is going to put up the money to operate Armenia's national infrastructure? How about one of the lowest natural gas rates in the world that Russia provides Armenia? How about the hundreds-of-thousands of Armenian citizens that make their living in Russia? Do these stupid people shouting stupid slogans realize that Armenia is located in southern Caucasus... or do these idiots think they are living in southern California? How stupid are these f#@king people?! Shouting, "stop selling weapons to Baku" is one thing, but "Russia get the f#@k out"?!?!?! It makes no sense no matter how you look at it. What these people are doing isn't political activism and it isn't protesting. What they are doing is sheer madness. What they are doing is actually suicidal behavior. These people are too stupid to know it but they are actually advancing a very old plan. Getting Russians to leave Armenia is actually a well established Western and Turkish political agenda -
George Friedman: “Russian presence in Armenia is bad for Turkey”: http://theriseofrussia. blogspot.com/2010/11/arye-gut- israeli-jewish-expert-in.html
Turkish Advice: Armenian diaspora, focus on Russia rather than Turkey! http://www.hurriyetdailynews. com/armenian-diaspora-focus- on-russia-rather-than-turkey
Growing alliance between Russia, Armenia troubling: US ads: http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/04/20/growing-alliance-between-russia-armenia-troubling-us-ads
Paul Goble: ‘Russia has De Facto Occupied Armenia,’ Yerevan Expert Says: http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/10/russia-has-de-facto-occupied-armenia.html
Russian General Leonid Ivashov: Turkey Seeks Separation Between Russia and Armenia: http://news.am/eng/news/36696. html
USA trying to break up Armenian-Russian military relations, general says: http://www.eurasianet.org/ resource/a...0005/0040.html
Richard Giragosian: My work with the Turkish government is in support of normalizing relations: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2cz9vw_adnan-oktar-s-live-discussion-on-a9-tv-with-richard-giragosian-director-of-the-armenian-think-tank-r_news
Lragir: Russia and The Armenian Genocide: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/35244
Westerners and Turks know (obviously a lot better than some Armenians) that Armenia simply can't survive without Russia. They know that once Russia is forced out of Armenia, Armenia will be at their mercy. They also know that Armenia's "independence" from Russia means Armenian dependence on Turkey. That said, it must also be said that Moscow has less control over Yerevan than Washington has over Europe. But again, these protesters are too stupid to realize any of this. This common knowledge among high level policymakers in Ankara and the West is essentially why many politicians, activists and news agencies in Armenia are encouraged - and funded - to disseminate anti-Russian rhetoric throughout Armenian society. The power of Western propaganda in Armenia is so great (largely thanks to Yerevan's complimentary politics) that Western operatives planted throughout Armenian society can take any political matter and effortlessly spin it to fit their self-serving narrative - and the Armenian sheeple accepts it as truth. Despite Armenian pride and arrogance, Armenians remains one of the world's most easily manipulated and mislead sheeple. Due to unique Armenian traits (that are also better recognized by Armenia's enemies), Armenians are proving very susceptible to manipulation and self-destructive behavior. There might be yet another factor in explaining the irrationality we see today in Yerevan. I hate to say this, but being able to repel the recent Azeri attack without much difficulty may have given our sheeple a false sense of security and illusions of grandeur.

Again I see the cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion. This cat better not go out to play in the wild without the accompaniment of the bear. If Armenians insist on acting psychotic and continue recklessly playing with the life of the republic - in a Turkic-Islamic environment nonetheless - I would much rather Armenia become a province within the Russian Federation instead. Times like this remind me that we Armenians may not be ready for statehood. Fortunately, there are some voices of sanity in Armenia. The following intellectual is one of them -
21-րդ դարում մեր սահմանը մնացել է բանկա-բութուլկայի մակարդակի, անհարմար է չէ՞: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQZzpJz6jik
I reiterate: Armenia's "independence" from Russia means Armenian dependence on Turkey. That said, it must also be said that Moscow has less control over Yerevan than Washington has over Europe, but Armenia's Russophobes are too stupid to realize this.

A few additional words about today's Western-funded anti-Russian community: It is quite common to hear from them that serious changes will be taking place in the world in the next ten years or so and that Russia will be destroyed in the end. Like brain-dead members of an evil cult, our professional Russophobes are convinced of it. They claim therefore to want to save Armenia by making Yerevan break its ties with Moscow... that is, before Russia is finally destroyed. Well, that the world is heading toward uncharted territory and that we are in the midst of a world war today is well known. What's obviously not known however is whether Russia (or the West for that matter) will be destroyed in the end. I am pretty confident Russia won't be the one destroyed. Russia has faced much tougher challenged in the past and it has come out stronger every time. It is the Western world that is in decline today, which is why they are setting fires around the world. Besides, all this talk about "Russia will fall" is a moot point because Armenia does not have a choice in the matter. Armenia has no choice but to remain within Russia's orbit. Armenians better realize that if Russia is forced out of the south Caucasus, the south Caucasus will turn back into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool regardless of whether or not Armenia has good relations with the West. 

Armenians also better take a good look at Cypriots, Serbians, Ukrainians, Kurds and Georgians to name only a few and realize that the West can never-ever be a security guarantee for Armenia. When it comes to matters pertaining to its national security, Armenia's only option is to firmly maintain its strategic alliance with Russia; better understand the geopolitical calculus of the region; and be better prepared militarily for a worst case scenario.

Yet, due to our political illiteracy and blinding emotions, we are constantly getting distracted and mislead by our enemies. Speaking of Western psy-ops targeted at Armenians, take a look at the following two articles. One is by the CIA-affiliated Stratfor and the other is by Soros-funded Open Democracy. One is trying to drive a wedge between Moscow and Yerevan, the other is trying to foment a color revolution in Yerevan. Their rhetoric sounds exactly like what our Western activists in Armenia  say all the time. Which begs the question: Who learns from who? -
This is Western psy-ops at its worst. The premise of both articles are actually based on lies and half-truths. The truth is that the CSTO (and we are primarily talking about Russia here) is under treaty to come to Armenia's aid and not Artsakh's, and even then only after Yerevan officially requests it. But I have no doubt that Moscow would also militarily intervene if Artsakh was seriously threatened. Russian officials have even hinted as such in the past. More recently, CSTO Secretary General Nikolay Bordyuzha has made some reaffirming comments. Nevertheless, please note that the most recent Azeri incursion into Artsakh was not an attempt by Baku to "restore jurisdiction" over Stepanakert. What happened was not a full-scale war and Artsakh was never in serious danger. Azerbaijan is simply not large enough or militarily powerful enough to actually threaten Armenia or even Artsakh. Yerevan has therefore never felt the need to ask for military intervention by Russia. Moreover, it is important to understand that by covering Armenia's western border with Turkey, Moscow provides Yerevan with the freedom to concentrate its limited resources on keeping Azerbaijan in check on Armenia's eastern borders. What happened on April 02, 2016 was a test or a warning but not a full scale war. The following is a very recent Armenian language article that talks about CSTO's actual military responsibilities when it comes to Armenia's security -
ՀԱՊԿ–ն կարձագանքի, եթե Հայաստանը դիմի: http://sputnik.co.am/armenia/20160402/2698538.html
That Armenian officials are squandering the task of properly fortifying Armenia's border with Azerbaijan by graft and embezzlement of financial resources is all together another topic of discussion. I'll just add this: While Russia has been giving billions of dollars worth of weapons system to Armenia during the past twenty-five years, Armenian officials have been robbing Armenia of billions of dollars during the past twenty-five years, and hiding their stolen wealth in Western banks. Russians know this and they don't like it one bit.

Nevertheless, people working at places like Stratfor and Armenia's Western activists always fail to ask: How did Artsakh, a tiny piece of territory that has no real economy to speak of, come to acquire so much weaponry in the first place? Is it because of the military assistance an economically depressed and cash broke Armenia provides, or is it a result of cheep (often free) Russian arms supplies to Armenia slowly trickling down to Artsakh? A lot of the weaponry that Russia has provided Armenia throughout the years has gone to Artsakh, with Moscow's knowledge. That's a fact. Also, why can't the people at Stratfor and Armenia's Western activists just say, Russia is covering Armenia's western border with Turkey so that Yerevan can concentrate all its resources on a more manageable threat coming from Azerbaijan?

Major powers see the world on a grander scale

Russian arms sales to Baku does not mean Russia is abandoning Armenia (Moscow would sooner occupy Armenia than abandon it). Russia is not taking sides against Armenia (had Russia taken sides against Armenia, we would not have an Armenia today). Remember that we are talking about a tiny, impoverished and blockaded nation that would not be able to defend itself against any of its predatory neighbors had it not been for the military and economic support it receives from Russia. The same actually applies to Artsakh. Had Russia actually been against Artsakh being under Armenian control, the situation there would have been a whole lot different today. This is the bottom line: Oil rich Baku has the money to purchase whatever it wants from whoever it wants. Armenia does not have that luxury. Russia has been the only reason why an impoverished Armenia has been able to maintain military parity with an oil rich Azerbaijan. Russia is the only reason keeping Turks on their side of the border, thereby allowing us Armenians to concentrate our limited resources on the Azeri threat.

That said, it was inevitable that Western intelligence services and their lackeys embedded throughout Armenian society would waste no time in hijacking a very complex matter like what's going on in Artsakh and grossly twist it to fit their narrative. And that narrative, a poisonous cocktail, is then fed to the Armenian sheeple. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's comments about this matter were revealing, but were Armenians listening? -
"If we imagine for a minute that Russia has given up this role (of arms seller), we well understand that this place will not stay vacant... They will buy weapons in other countries, and the degree of their deadliness won't change in any way... But at the same time, this could destroy the existing balance of forces (in the region)"
The Russian Prime Minister basically said: If Moscow broke its ties with Baku, then Western, Israeli, Turkish and Islamist interests will inevitably fill the void; the region will not be less militarized; and Armenia will not be able to maintain its military parity with a wealthy Azerbaijan. In other words, PM Medvedev is saying Moscow would lose control of the situation in the region if it stopped dealing with Baku.

From an emotional perspective, I don't like the thought of our allies in Moscow selling weapons to our enemies in Baku. From a political perspective, however, I fully agree with the comments made by the Russian prime minister. I think the situation with Baku could be much worst had Russia not been in the picture in Azerbaijan. In my opinion, Moscow is executing a very sophisticated political approach to the very complex dispute in question. And Western-activists, like the filthy smut-peddlers that they are, are exploiting Moscow's political predicament and vulnerability to incite Russophobia inside Armenia. None of what I'm saying here is rocket science. People with normally functioning brains should be able to understand all this. Apparently, that does not apply to many Armenians. It's simply amazing for me to see just how politically illiterate we Armenians are. At the end of the day, and despite its dealing with our enemies, Russia remains Armenia's one and only ally and Russia remains the only nation on earth that would militarily intervene to save Armenia from being overrun by Turks and/or Islamists.

Moscow is neither an angel or a demon. Moscow is a superpower. And all superpowers tend to formulate geostrategy and implement them cautiously, systematically and professionally. There is no room for emotions or knee-jerk reactions in superpower politics. In short: Major powers like Russia see the world on a grander scale than small ethnic groups like Armenians.

We vividly saw Moscow's pragmatic restraint and strategic foresight in the wake of the downing of the Russian military plane over Syria. A Russian aircraft was ambushed and shot-down and a Russian pilot was murdered.  The typical human reaction would have been to immediately repay in kind. But that is not how it works in politics. Moscow has responded and will continue to respond to Ankara's aggression in other ways. We saw Moscow execute a highly sophisticated statecraft in Ukraine, where the ethnic Russian community there was encouraged by Moscow to rise up against Kiev. But we also saw that Russia did not directly intervene to liberate Ukraine's rebellious ethnic Russians due to political considerations. Moscow's primary intent was to ruin Kiev's EU/NATO plans and distract Ukraine's attention from the Crimea, and Novorossiyans were doing just that. Moreover, while the Western-backed military junta in Kiev was waging war against Novorossiyans, Moscow was supporting the ethnic Russians there while at the same time continuing certain trade deals with Kiev. Was Moscow backstabbing Novorossiyans? Of course not. Has Moscow abandoned Novorossiyans? Of course not. Simply put: The liberation of Novorossiya does not fit Moscow's geopolitical calculus, at least for now. Incidentally, I didn't see Novorossiyans, who thus far have gotten the short end of the stick, organizing street protests and angrily accusing Moscow of backstabbing them. Are Slavs more politically aware? Perhaps. We more recently saw Moscow doing similar things in Syria. Russia intervened to save the Alawite community there from an inevitable genocide. But as we have seen since, Russia's military intervention in Syria did not mean Moscow will agree to every single demand made by the Assad government. Do Syria's Alawite community have political maturity? We'll have to wait and see. That said, the following article that just appeared in the New York Times shows the kind of flawless statecraft Moscow is executing in Syria -
Russian Forces Remain Heavily Involved in Syria, Despite Appearances: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/europe/
Moscow behavior in places like Ukraine, Syria and Armenia, is not stupid, duplicitous or backstabbing. Moscow behavior is superpower behavior. When a major nation makes a simple error, it can cause a world war. This is why high level policymakers in major nations are always calculating and they are always cautious when it comes to foreign policy, with the notable exception of Neocons in the US. This calculus, caution and pragmatism is the reason why Russia has not invaded eastern Ukraine; the reason why it has not hit back at Turkey; and it is also the reason why Moscow is doing its best to maintain ties with Baku. Russia is a nation that borders Europe, the Caucasus, central Asia, east Asia and all of the Arctic. Russia is a massive nuclear power. Russian officials, like their American counterparts, tend to see things on a grander scale. Moscow has to have a grand view of the world. Russians officials have centuries of diplomatic expertise and have cultivated impeccable foresight when it comes to geostrategy. Russians have also suffered calamitous wars all too often. Therefore, the execution of Russian politics is by nature cautious, calculating, systematic and meticulous. In short: Russia is a superpower. Moscow therefore thinks as a superpower. And the following are the thoughts of Russian politician, activist and writer, Nikolai Starikov -
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict explained by Nikolai Starikov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ANqaJzxX3k
Moscow will look at a issue like Artsakh, Syria or even Novorossiya for that matter not from an emotional, cultural or historical perspective as we Armenians love to do, but from a legal, political and geostrategic perspective as all major powers prefer to do. Major powers see the world on a grander scale.

Baku should be placed within Russia's orbit

When Armenians stop approaching politics from an emotional or personal perspective they will begin to better understand the political world and that in turn will help them better maneuver politically. In other words: Armenian need to see the bigger, geostrategic picture. And in the bigger, geostrategic picture, a Baku that is within the Russian orbit is less of a threat to Armenia than a Baku that is under the total influence of Ankara and Western powers. I understand this is not ideal. Unfortunately, Armenia once again finds itself facing two choices: One is a bad choice and the other one is a worst choice. That said, we must recognize that Russians are right now operating in full realpolitik mode. For Moscow, everything right now is pure calculus. Moscow knows that there is an active agenda by the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance and their Turkic/Islamic friends to surround and isolate Russia. Moscow knows that the entire Eurasian continent is one bad incident away from a third world war. Moscow is therefore doing its best to manage the very complex, very volatile situation we currently have in the world, and what I see many of us Armenians doing is acting like typical mountain dwellers.

Once more I implore you to think: If Russia was to stop selling arms to Baku, it would essentially be a symbolic measure because Baku has the money to purchase modern arms from elsewhere. Baku has already purchases billions of dollars of arms from countries other than Russia. If Moscow stopped selling arms to Baku, all of the money Baku has allocated for arms purchases will thereafter go to Turkey, Israel, Ukraine, Pakistan, China and Western powers, and these powers will come to have more leverage inside Azerbaijan. Will that be better for the region? Will that be better for Armenia and Artsakh? Moscow knows that pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism have been Western power tools for a long time. Moscow knows that Western powers have used and continue using pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism against the Russian nation. Russian official are doing their best to stay in the game in Azerbaijan essentially because they realizes that if they breaks their close relationship with Baku, Azerbaijan is highly susceptible to turning into a center of pan-Turkic and Islamic activities. Yes, we all know that American, British and Israeli interests already exist in Baku. We also know that Grey Wolves and ISIS also operates inside Azerbaijan. But the aforementioned are not espoused officially and they are not yet mainstream.

Without Russia in the picture in Baku, Azerbaijan has the strong potential to become hotbed of pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism. Azeri officials in fact use these factors in Azerbaijan as a threat to make Russians remain closely engaged with Baku.

So, as you can see, Azeri officials are not as stupid as we would like to think they are. The stupid ones are in fact us. Look at it this way: Armenians that call on Russia to stop dealing with Baku are essentially calling on Russians to turn Azerbaijan into an even worst threat for Armenia and Artsakh. Those of us that want Moscow to break ties with Baku are actually asking Moscow to sowing the seeds of a major war in the region. Yes, Russia needs to be ready for a war. But at the same time, Russia must also do everything in its power to avoid one. The same applies to Armenia. Turkic peoples, Islamic peoples can afford wars, we Armenians can't. It is very worrying for me that a lot of this rationale is escaping most of our people today. The better we Armenians understand all this, the better will be be able to navigate the perils of superpower politics and the coming storm.

I reiterate: Russia is Armenia's one and only ally. Russia is not abandoning Armenia (or even Artsakh). If there are problems or flaws in Moscow geostrategic vision towards Armenia or Artsakh, Armenians need to stop throwing temper-tantrums like little emotional children and figure out ways to work with their Russian counterparts to fix the problems. Our leaders cannot do what I just suggested by running off to Western capitols and complain about Russia every time Moscow says or does something that Armenians don't like. Armenians have the need to better understand politics and Armenian officials have to get serious about their responsibilities to our nation. In other words, we Armenians as a people yet have to mature politically. Speaking of political maturity, the political analyst in the following interview explains it well -
Թարմ ուղեղով՝ Երվանդ Բոզոյանի հետ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6zBNIMlkcU
Speaking about the war, the political analyst basically puts the blame on Armenian officials, saying they knew there was a serious danger coming out of Baku since 2014 but they did not take it seriously and failed to properly fortify the border with Azerbaijan. He also went on to say, Russians can only do so much for Armenia, the rest is our responsibility. He is 1000% right. Russia is Armenia's strategic ally, meaning Russia will not allow Armenia to be overrun by Turks or Azeris or anyone else for that mater. Armenia's tactical needs, however, is our responsibility. In other words: Russia will give us the tools for survival but Russia will not spoon feed us. Alarmingly, we have two types of Armenians today: One type sits back and expects Russians to serve Armenia on hand and knees and then ends up cursing Russia for not doing so; the other type hates everything that is Russian and wants to see Armenia out of Russia's obit. Both are ignorant. Both are dangerous. Both can lead the country to ruin.

Sadly, talking to Armenians about geopolitical nuances is like talking to a five year old child about the meaning of life. If our overly emotional and always politically naive sheeple fall for the highly sophisticated manipulations and machinations of Western powers and ruin Armenia's relations with Russia as a result, Armenia will once again be erased from the world map. Our idiots in Yerevan better realize this because we have made the same mistake all too often. Despite what patriotic Armenians want to believe, Russia's hand over Armenia is the only thing keeping Armenia in existence today. This may be difficult for "proud" Armenian (especially in the Diaspora) to accept but this is reality. If Western powers manage to convince our people that Russia's hand is a hand that is not needed or worst, a hand that is hurting Armenia, Armenia will be dangerously exposed in a very dangerous environment. We as a people need to understand that we are in the early stages of a world war. We as a people need to understand that Western powers look at Turks and Islamists as geostrategic assets. We as a people need to understand that the defeat of Russia is one of the ultimate goals of the Anglo-American-Jewish world order in this war. Armenians better wake up and realize that if Russia is defeated, Armenia will face another genocide regardless of whether or not Armenia has good relations with the West - and all the big talking Armenian Diaspora will be able to do is hold demonstrations in Western capitols in support of Armenia.

Once more: Armenia is not even on the list of Western priorities. Western powers will never come to Armenia's aid under any circumstances. At best, the West will take in a number of Armenian refugees and some Western officials will make some emotional speeches in favor of Armenians. That's it. The ONLY nation on earth that would be adversely impacted by Armenia's demise is Russia. The ONLY nation on earth, besides Armenians, that would be willing to spill blood for Armenia is Russians.

Artsakh proved its mettle in combat, it's our diplomats' turn

The Turkish/Western defeat in Syria on one hand, the worsening socioeconomic situation in Azerbaijan on an other hand and the Anglo-American-Jewish lust for Russian blood yet on another hand, something bad was bound to happen - either in Novorossiya or in Nagorno Karabakh. Unfortunately, it was our turn this time. It seems Baku was seeking to quickly occupy some Armenian held territory and inflict serious losses on Armenians as a stern message to Yerevan that is was now serious about resolving this festering matter. I suspect Baku did not risk a full scale invasion of Artsakh and made sure to keep things quite along Armenia's border because it feared Russian retaliation. Nevertheless, whatever it was that they had wanted to do, it didn't fully work as hoped. Armenians instinctively rallied around the national flag, Armenian troops held firm and the advancing Azeris were thrown back without much difficulty.

This mini war may have been a test for Armenia and Russia. They may have wanted to see Armenia's military performance and Yerevan's political resolve and Russia's reaction. If so, and if viewed strictly from a political perspective, I believe both passed the test. Russia did not have to militarily react essentially because Armenian forces in Artsakh performed well on the battlefield and Armenia was never under any threat. All Moscow therefore felt was needed was condemnation of Baku's actions, a symbolic troop buildup on the border with Azerbaijan, and it waited for the right time - when Armenian troops had liberated lands (with one exception) that had been initially lost in the fighting - to step in and call a ceasefire. Nevertheless, Armenian troops in Artsakh performed their tasks very well even in face of lethal, Israeli made  weapons that were introduced in combat for the first time. In fact, Armenian troops performs so well that military units stationed in Armenia didn't even need to get involved in the fighting. The thousands of enthusiastic men and women that poured into Artsakh from Armenia were all volunteers and veterans of the previous war. Even in Artsakh, most of the available combat units seemed to have been held back in reserve. Therefore, a relatively small number of Armenian troops were able to repulse a major military incursion into Artsakh and inflicted heavy losses on them. Artsakh proved its mettle in combat and the world noticed. The following powerful words was written by a Russian lawyer -
Artsakh has once again made us proud. Artsakh continues to be the place where Armenians worldwide draw a red line. From a tactical military perspective, however, it must also be said that this battle revealed some technical and tactical flaws. Perhaps more about that in a future blog commentary. That said, I think this short but violent war was a timely wake up call for all Armenians. While I am deeply saddened for the lives we lost on the battlefield, I think this was a very necessary battle to prove our resolve, as well as a battle to remind us Armenians of who the real enemy is. Unfortunately, we Armenians are one of those troublesome people that have to be reminded from time-to-time that the enemy is the Turk and not the Armenian government.

Azeri atrocities were a timely reminder for us all about who our enemy is. Made no mistake about it, Turks and Azeris remain barbarians. They are capable of despicable acts. Armenians need to wake up from their Western-inspired fantasies about "democracy" and "civil society" realize that Armenia is surrounded by predators that would not hesitate even one moment to devour it. Armenians need to end their political illiteracy and finally recognize that Armenia's only problem today is its geographic location and its blockade by Azerbaijan and NATO-member Turkey. For all its flaws - both real and perceived - Armenia's leadership today is the leadership we have, it's the leadership we deserve and it's the leadership we need to learn to work with for the benefit of Armenia. Our democracy obsessed idiots both in the homeland and in the diaspora therefore need to use their energies to figure out a way to fight for Armenia instead of fighting "corruption" in Armenia.

Time to heed to Garegin Njdeh's advice: "The motherland must be loved regardless of her political regime and our political convictions". And loving the motherland means being responsible towards her, especially during times of war.

But, because we are Armenians, we will always have people who will see the Armenian government as the country's main enemy. A little over a year ago, the Western-funded freak show called Founding Parliament tried to bring their color revolution into Artsakh; they called on the diaspora to join their revolution; they threatened an armed uprising against the Armenian state; and their affiliates were caught planning assassinations of Armenian officials. Remember that they were doing all this at a very volatile time in the region and at a time when Armenia was facing the threat of a war. Well, where are these "nationalist" clowns now? I have not seen a single one of them at the font-lines in Artsakh, but I have seen them in front of the Russian embassy protesting courageously.

Nevertheless, recent events have also served to remind us Armenians that a nation without a capable military and the eager willingness to fight for its existence does not deserve statehood. If we want to come out of our one thousand year old gypsies-like existence - we have to fight. It's that simple. If we prove ourselves in politics and in war, others, as well as our Russian allies, will begin taking us more seriously. It is also very important to show the world that Armenians are united behind their government. Major powers only respect power and resolve, not victim-hood and whining.

Which reminds me of a story: Back in the 1990s I recalling reading an article about a memoir written by some British journalist during the First World War. While I don't remember details of the article, I do remember what in the document made the greatest impression on me. The journalist, most probably his government's eyes and ears, wrote about his observations of the Armenian independence struggle in the Ottoman Empire. In his writings he noted that Armenian fighters were disorganized and that Armenians in general were not united behind their war effort. The communications he sent back to London basically said: We cant rely on Armenians. This, in political parlance, essentially meant we better put our emphasis on striking a deal Turks. To me, the memoir was evidence that the British was assessing Armenians from early on, and that we had failed to pass the test because we were perceived as not being serious about nation-building. The time period in question was during the late 1910s, when Ataturk was on the rise in Turkey. At the time, Western powers were allied to us Armenians and they had promised us heaven on earth, if we only helped them defeat the Turks. In fact, Armenians were not only fighting Turks, they were also fighting Bolsheviks - hoping that Western powers will eventually come to Armenia's aid. But, as always, realpolitik got in the way. Making a deal with Turks became much more important for Western powers. The British and the French therefore completely abandoned Armenians as soon as the war ended.

This is what I am getting at: We need to look at what's going on in Artsakh quite literally as a test. And make no mistake about it, we are being closely watched and assessed not only by our enemies but also by our friends. This is a test to see where we stand as a people. This is a test to see if we will cave in under pressure. This is a test to see if we are serious about Artsakh. God rest their souls, I think our most recent martyrs helped us pass this test. I think the Armenian military lived up to its expectations, and the Armenian people instinctively rallied around the flag like it had not since the early 1990s. I think The big powers including our Russian ally will assess what happened and will hopefully come to the conclusion that we Armenians are serious when it comes to Artsakh.

One of the unwritten rules of humanity is that a people that is not willing to collectively fight for its existence, is a people that does not deserve statehood. If the latest war in Artsakh was indeed a test, I think we passed. And I hope that by passing this test we have lessened the possibility of a larger, more destructive test in the future. But, as noted above, times are changing, Baku is desperate and we can expect anything from them. Another round of fighting is therefore a real possibility. Our work therefore is not finished.

We have to build on our battlefield success. Eventually, perhaps this year, we may have to sit at a negotiations table. If Armenians want to be taken seriously and be seen as a viable political/military factor during such negotiations,Yerevan will have to make all know, including its Russian allies, that Armenians will fight for Artsakh. It's that simply. In fact, this is what the metaphor of the Iron Ladle is all about. Moreover, when the Armenian president walks into the negotiations room, all those present need to know full well that behind him stands the entire Armenian nation. If we are to therefore build on our most recent battlefield success, we will need national unity, political foresight and military resolve. More importantly, the Armenian president needs to come out of the negotiations process with the recognition of Artsakh's independence or its unity with Armenia. This must be top priority.

At the end of the day, we need to also recognize that geopolitics is a game of chess. Superpowers like the Russian Federation are constantly on the lookout for opportunities to advance or protect one geostrategic interest or another. We see Moscow executing statecraft and acting like a superpower. Armenians will have a difficult time wrapping their minds around how Russians see the political world, but it is best we learn, and learn quickly. Moscow is our ally. There are absolutely no doubt about that. Moscow will militarily intervene to protect Armenia if need be. There is absolutely no doubt about that. But Moscow is also a massive superpower with a lot of problems to deal with and it therefore can at times do things we will not like. To avoid unpleasant surprises and extract maximum benefits from our relationship with the Russian Bear, we, as the smaller, weaker partner in the strategic alliance, need to better understand the ways of the Kremlin and use our God-given talents to figure out a better, more effective way to promote Armenian interests within the halls of the Kremlin.
Is Moscow preparing the path for Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh?

I am inclined to think that the Turkish government and Western interests were somehow behind this latest aggression by Baku. I am inclined to think that the aforementioned opponents of Russia and Armenia may be seeking to ignite a new hot spot on Russia's southern borders, if only to divert Moscow's attention from Syria or punish Armenia for its close military alliance with Russia. For his part, Aliyev may also be seeking to divert the attention of his people from the so-called "Panama Papers". That said, I did not see Moscow forcefully scolding Baku for its blatant aggression. I think that there is more to Moscow's restraint in this regard than simply wanting to look impartial in the conflict. 

Therefore, a question rises: Could Moscow be looking for a controlled or limited escalation to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and if so why?

We know that the Russian Federation has always (since 1991) wanted deeper involvement in the strategic south Caucasus. It is no secret that through the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Moscow wants to develop its very own financial/economic network. It is also no secret that Moscow wants to develop the CSTO as a front against NATO. Needless to say, the Caucasus (both north and south) is strategically vital for Moscow. From a Russian perspective: The unsettled dispute over Artsakh is hindering the development of the EEU and CSTO and is keeping the region volatile - and thus susceptible to war and the spread of Islamic extremism and pan-Turkism. Sometime around 2013, Moscow began signalling that it was serious about putting an end to the dispute. There were also clear signals that Moscow wanted station Russian troops in the region. The desire to base Russian troops in Artsakh is essentially part of Moscow's "defensive depth" strategy. Moscow, or the Bear's lair if you will, seeks to surround itself with buffer states as a protection against would-be invaders and also as a market for its goods. Eastern Europe, south Caucasus and Central Asia are therefore seen by Russian officials as Moscow's first line of defense.

To achieve this buffer in the south Caucasus, Moscow essentially needs to do two things: 1) Settle the dispute between Yerevan and Baku; 2) Bring Tbilisi back into its orbit. If Moscow managed to do the former, the ladder would be much easier to do. With its victories in Syria and Ukraine (both are now buffers), Moscow may feel this is the best time to try something in the south Caucasus. 

Some of you may recall that couple of years ago I said that the Kremlin may one day allow Armenians and Azeris to fight a limited war and then step in to settle matters and play peacemaker. I am therefore willing to entertain the thought that Moscow could be seeking to put pressure on Yerevan (and Baku) to force it to abandon its ties with the West and allow the stationing of Russian troops in Artsakh. These are two things that Yerevan would rather not see happen. It can therefore be surmised that a certain level of hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan can fit Russia's strategic agenda.

 From Moscow's perspective: Russia already controls the situation on Armenia's western border with Turkey, why not do the same on Armenia's eastern border with Azerbaijan. Moscow wants a larger and stronger Russian presence in the south Caucasus as a part of their defensive depth strategy and as a measure to ensure that Western powers, Turkey or Iran do not encroach on the region. One way it can do this is if it can lure Baku fully into its orbit, after which it would be Tbilisi's turn. If the region's three nation-states, however, are unwilling to go along with Moscow's wishes, Moscow may seek to create conditions that will help it realize its ultimate goal. Therefore, when Azeris attacked was Moscow hoping to see how it could exploit the situation? In other words: Is Moscow slowly preparing the path for Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh?

 Sooner or later we Armenians may be faced with some important questions: Do we want to be in a constant state of war with our neighbor to the east, or do we want a real peace settlement with them? How far are we willing to go to achieve peace? How far are we willing to go in a war? Are we willing to negotiate the fate of the territories we currently control? Is having Russian troops stationed between Armenians and Azeris a good thing or a bad thing? Are Armenians willing to break Armenia's alliance with Moscow if need be? Are we doing enough lobbying in Moscow? These questions needs to be discussed.

Greater Russian involvement in the region is nevertheless the crux of the matter, and this is where Western funded agents throughout Armenian society are actively doing their best to exploit by sowing confusion, disinformation, fear and distrust inside Armenian society. Every time this matter is discussed in Armenian society, loud shouts of "treason" is heard from our traitors in the Western camp. Every time this matter is discussed, loud shouts of "never" is heard from war veteran unions. According to such voices, once Russian troops get stationed in the region, they will eventually make a deal with Azerbaijan at Armenia's expense and simply abandon or "sell" Armenia to Turks/Azeris. They of course bring up 1921 and 1991 as proof that this will definitely happen. The following are recently featured commentaries about this very matter -
Մենք թույլ չենք տալու, որ օտար զորքը ոտք դնի մեր մարտական ընկերների արյան գնով ազատագրված հայրենի հողի վրա: http://himnadir.am/մենք-թույլ-չենք-տալու-որ-օտար-զորքը-ոտք/
No Quick Fix For Karabakh Conflict, Says Yerevan: http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27686827.html
Nobody will ever allow bringing Russian troops to zone of Karabakh conflict: http://news.am/eng/news/323237.html
Paul Goble: Russia wants to deploy peacekeeping forces in Karabakh: http://news.am/eng/news/290706.html
Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh: An unlikely and unwanted scenario: http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=1429:
It would be needless to say that I look at this matter quite differently. In my opinion, it's down right silly to think that Moscow has an agenda to place Artsakh under Baku's control, nor does Moscow intend to abandon Armenia in any shape or form. The only problem I foresee here is Moscow's attitude towards the territories taken outside of Artsakh proper. This is precisely where Armenians need to draw red lines. This is when the powers that be have to be made to understand that Armenia is willing to go to war over Artsakh's territorial integrity. And this is where backroom meetings with Russian officials will prove most effective.

That said, ultimately, I also know that Armenia needs peace and stability in the region to develop economically. I also know that Russia is the only political entity today that is keeping Armenia from being run-over by her Turkic neighbors. I personally think that a powerful Russian presence in the south Caucasus will mean the end of the tug-of-war between the great powers of today. And in the big geostrategic picture I always like to talk about, that is a good thing for Armenia. With all due respects to Armenia's fighting men and women, I am under no illusions about our fighting abilities. I know that Armenia cannot fight a prolonged war in the region with anyone, let alone without Russian support. We therefore have a lot of thinking to do.

But frightening Armenians by saying Russian troops in Artsakh will inevitably side with Azerbaijan is a dangerous scare tactic. We must reject Western smut-peddlers. We must reject the idea that Armenia can survive the region without direct Russian support. We must also understand that  we cannot become a political factor in Moscow if our people are led down the dangerous path of Russophobia. Russian troops based in or near Artsakh wouldn't need to fight Armenians because Azeris are more than willing to fight. If it wants, Moscow can enable an Azeri war without being anywhere near Artsakh. I therefore don't see how Russians in Artsakh can be a problem for Armenia. Time periods need to be assessed within the geopolitical context of their times. The Bolshevik takeover of Armenia in 1921 had its unique geopolitical factors that led to what happened. The Soviet Union's support for Azerbaijan in 1991 had its unique geopolitical factors that led to what happened. None of those geopolitical factors exist today. Moscow is not seeking to occupy Armenia. Moscow is not seeking to strengthen Azerbaijan at the expense of Armenia.

I personally don't have a problem with the stationing of Russian troops between Artsakh and Azerbaijan as long as Armenia keeps Artsakh proper and all regions west of it and official Yerevan makes it known to all, including Moscow, that Armenia is ready to fight anyone, including its Russian allies, to keep those lands within Armenian possession. This is when we will need unity, foresight and political acumen.

Nevertheless, a powerful Russian presence in the south Caucasus will ultimately help bring peace, stability and economic prosperity to the struggling region, not much unlike what the region's people enjoyed during Czarist and Soviet periods. What we are essentially talking about here is Pax Russica. It was during the Czar's Pax Russica that an Armenian nation began to resettle en masse in their ancestral homelands. It was during the Soviet Union's Pax Russica that Armenia became a modern republic with fully functioning national institutions. Armenia's terrible economic and political situation will improve only under another Pax Russica. As long as Pax Russica is delayed in the south Caucasus, so will the arrival of peace and stability. Needless to say, Western powers do not want to see the establishment of Pax Russica in the region. Western interests would rather see the region remain as is: Politically unstable, economically stagnant and militarily volatile. Isolating Russia and Iran and exploiting regional energy reserves is after all why Western powers are meddling in the region in the first place. For its part, Moscow's long-term strategy is to bring the entire south Caucasus into its orbit. This is essentially why the two sides, Russia and the West, are clashing in the region and this is why the tiny Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh is such a crucially important piece in the region's geopolitical puzzle.

Complexities of settling the Artsakh dispute
Although Western powers want the Armenian sheeple to think that the West is still a major factor in the Caucasus, the fact is that Moscow has taken all the initiative in the south Caucasus since the summer of 2008. The dispute over Artsakh will therefore eventually be settled in Moscow - under what Russian officials hope will be their terms. And when the time comes to negotiate a final settlement, those who have the deepest roots in the Kremlin will extract the most benefits. And this is when we may realize that Yerevan's "complimentary politics" has actually hurt Armenia. After all, why should Russian officials cater to every single Armenian demand? Because Yerevan hosts one of the world's largest US embassies? Because governmental departments in Armenia are staffed by Western trained personnel? Because Armenian troops participate in military drills with NATO? Because NATO has opened a center in Armenia? Because Armenia is saturated by Western-financed political organizations, politicians, activists, news organizations and NGOs?

In its burning desire to maintain close relations with Western powers, Yerevan has totally neglected lobbying efforts in Moscow. In start contrast to this, Azerbaijan (and until very recently Turkey) has been relentlessly lobbying Russian officials. Amazingly, Armenia, a nation that is desperately dependent on Russia for survival, is not engaging in any form of organized lobbying efforts in Moscow. In the following two television interviews we see Chairman of Union of Armenians in Russia Ara Abrahamyan and former Armenian National Security Council Secretary Arthur Baghdasaryan raising the alarm about the lack of Armenian lobbying efforts inside Moscow and the inability of official Yerevan today to efficiently exploit its strategic relationship with Moscow -
Արթուր Բաղդասարյան (watch from 48:30): https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=GARDQ9WCcko
Speaking of geopolitics, lobbying and Armenian incompetence, please read the following two articles -
Vardan Voskanyan: Azerbaijan is ahead of Armenia in Iran: http://www.panorama.am/en/news/2016/04/23/Vardan-Voskanyan/1567871
Alexander Gusyev: “Iran is building a road through Azerbaijan because of Armenian leadership’s indifference”: http://rusarminfo.ru/alexander-gusyev-iran-is-building-a-road-through-azerbaijan-because-of-armenian-leaderships-indifference/
As the reader can clearly see, Armenians are also no where in sight even in Armenia's second most important neighboring country. Yerevan's foolish fetish with the Western world is making it neglect its very own neighborhood.

This is a very serious problem that is strategic in nature. It seems as if our officials are simply hoping for bad relations to develop between Moscow, Tehran and Baku as they place their emphasis on developing ties with Western powers. It does not work that way. Yerevan needs to be active in Moscow and in Tehran. Yerevan needs to embark on a serious effort to convince Moscow in particular that a bigger and stronger Armenia is in Russia's best interests. Armenians need to convince Moscow that a bigger and stronger Armenia is a natural bulwark against Turkic and Islamic expansion. We need political foresight in Yerevan and political activism in Moscow. Alarmingly, I do not see much of an effort being put into this vital strategic matter. On one side, we have Western mercenaries doing their best to spread Russophobia and on the other side we have subservient chobans in Armani suits sitting back and expecting Russian officials to decide everything for Armenia.

Because there exists no serious lobbying efforts by Armenians inside Moscow, everything that Moscow does with regards to Armenia is essentially a by-product of Russia's geopolitical calculations. Thus far we have been lucky. But politics is not about hoping or being lucky. We simply cannot sit back and expect - or demand - that Russians to do the right thing for Armenia. Armenians need to embark on a collective, cohesive, pan-national effort to make a case for Artsakh's territorial integrity. None of this was done by Yerevan and as far as I know, no serious effort was made to resolve this matter behind closed doors in Moscow. Worst yet, I suspect no one in Yerevan wants to even deal with this matter. President Sargsyan was most probably hoping that the next president would have to face making hard choices. While the status quo served Moscow's interests, Yerevan got its way. Now that things are changing, Yerevan may have no choice but to begin thinking about settling the dispute. To have the best possible outcome, Armenians better mature and learn how the game of politics is really played. 

Nevertheless, we might witness another limited scale war to convince both sides to come to the negotiations table and finally settle the Artsakh dispute. As a final negotiated settlement with Baku, Yerevan may be expected to return some of the "seven regions" taken outside of Artsakh proper. Baku may be expected to recognize Artsakh's independence or its reunification with Armenia. I do not have much concerns about the fate of the territories west of Artsakh. What concerns me are the other territories.

Ultimately, the territorial future of Artsakh (what territories we keep, what territories we give in exchange for peace) is up to Armenian officials to help decide. Russians are macro-managing the situation in the south Caucasus. The micromanagement that needs to take place regarding Artsakh is ultimately our responsibility. Moscow's primary concern is keeping both Armenia and Baku within its orbit, details, such as how borders should be drawn in Artsakh, are of secondary importance to the Kremlin. 

It is therefore up to Armenians to embark on an serious effort in the Kremlin to convince Russians that territories under question will be fought for even if Moscow would prefer their return to Azerbaijan. And Armenian officials need to also make their Russian counterpart know that Armenia will do all this while remaining a steadfast ally of Russia, ultimately because this is an internal matter between to close allies. Running off to Western capitols to whine like little children will not help Armenia or Artsakh in any way. Once more: The degree and depth of the concessions that would be expected from Yerevan is therefore ultimately up to the diplomatic acumen of Armenian politicians and the lobbying efforts of our political activists in Moscow.

It is also crucially important to show the global community that Armenians are united behind their leadership and that the entire population of Artsakh is fully mobilized and ready for war. Major powers only respect power and resolve, not victim-hood and whining.

Over a century ago, one of our most beloved patriarchs informed us Armenians about the paramount importance of Iron Ladles. This proverbial Iron Ladle is as important for Armenia today as it has ever been. In today's Armenia, however, this Iron Ladle should looked at from the context of Armenia's alliance with Russia. Yerevan therefore cannot even think about weakening its alliance with Russia. But Yerevan has to make Moscow realize that Armenians will fight for every square meter of Artsakh. I want to repeat once more that the primary responsibility of holding on to every bit liberated Artsakh falls upon the shoulders of Armenian politicians, Armenian activists and Armenian soldiers. Instead of complaining and fear-mongering and threatening closer relations with Western powers, as some of our idiots tend to do when things don't go our way with Moscow, we Armenians need to draw on all our national assets and make a strong case for Artsakh within the walls of the Kremlin. Thus far, this is not being done because Western agents deeply embedded throughout Armenian society are leading us astray.

Distrust in politics works both ways

It is well known that Russians, Russian officials to be exact, see Armenia as part of the Russian world. Recent developments in Armenia has shown that due to Yerevan's shortsighted "complimentary politics", which has allowed Western agents a free hand in Armenia, an increasing numbers of Armenians are seeing Armenia as part of the Western world. In other wards, although Armenia exists today in an Turkic/Islamic landscape like the south Caucasus essentially because it is safely in Russia's orbit, increasing numbers of Armenians are looking westward. There is bound to be problems with this disconnect. In my humble opinion: I would much rather Armenia become part of the Russian Federation than see it risk its existence by trying to enter the Western orbit. It would only take a quick look at Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, Cyprus and Greece, to see what can happen nations in the Western orbit. A nation like Armenia, a nation that has no direct access tot he outside world and a nation that is surrounded by two hostile Turkic powers, wouldn't survive the process. Armenians need to grow up and realize that at the end of the day, Armenia's independence from Russia will only mean Armenia's dependence on Turkey - as the Western world is in reality thousands of miles away and when things get difficult for it, it will simply abandon the region.

But, Armenians will be Armenians, and Armenians will play with fire. Armenian traits - political illiteracy, arrogance, pride, blinding emotions, materialism, shortsightedness, individualism, stubbornness - are once again bringing Armenia closer to the abyss.

Let's be honest with ourselves and realize that the only thing keeping Armenians in the Russian camp is the Turkic threat. Russians know this all too well. Had Armenia not had problems with Turks or Azeris, Armenia, like Georgia, would have been in than alliance with Turks and Azeris against Russia. In fact, culturally and genetically, Armenians are a lot closer to Turks and Azeris. We see this vividly throughout the Russian Federation, where Armenians tend to have better community relations with the country's Turkic/Muslim peoples than with its native Christian Slavs. What I am saying may be uncomfortable for the reader, but they are absolute truths. Moscow knows that the only thing securing Yerevan's allegiance to Russia is the Armenia's problems with Turkey and Azerbaijan. We cannot therefore expect or demand trust from Moscow - specially when Armenia is utterly infested with West-leaning politicians and Western-funded NGOs and activists. In other words: Moscow cannot trust Armenia because of Yerevan's 20-plus years old counterproductive nonsense called "complimentary politics". 

I just want to add here that complimentary politics made some sense in the 1990s when Russian influence in the south Caucasus was very weak and Western powers enjoyed global hegemony. The world however began to change in the summer of 2008, when the Russian Bear was abruptly woken up by the Western-funded dictator in Tbilisi. In a matter of days, a rag-tag Russian force of about ten thousand troops routed the entire Georgian army along with its Western, Turkish and Israeli military advisors. By 2010, Western powers were in full retreat from the south Caucasus as both Tbilisi and Baku began warming relations with Moscow. Since then, we have had major Russian military interventions in Ukraine and Syria. Crimea has been returned to Mother Russia. Syria's Alawites and other minorities in the country have been saved from an inevitable genocide. Moreover, Russia and Turkey are very close to a war. The point is: The Russian Bear today is fully awake and very angry. The geopolitical calculus in the south Caucasus today is therefore very different from what it was in the 1990s - yet official Yerevan is still operating like it's the 1990s. Yerevan continues to give equal treatment to Western powers by allowing Western powers to set deep roots in the country -
Armenia MOD discusses cooperation with Fletcher School and Tavitian Foundation: http://news.am/eng/news/297256.html

NATO cooperation reaches fruition as new university opens in Armenia: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_127688.htm

Armenian Military Details 2014 Drills With U.S. Troops: http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/26820436.html

Second largest one in the world: Goals and tasks of U.S. Embassy in Armenia: http://www.verelq.am/en/node/5628
Armenia has new National Security Service Chief: http://news.am/eng/news/311329.html
Complimentary politics has only served to infest Armenia with Western agents. Because of Yerevan's complimentary politics, Armenia is now hopelessly stuck between two superpowers pulling from opposite directions. Because of Yerevan's complimentary politics, Armenia has neglected to develop its strategic relations with Russia. Because of Yerevan's complimentary politics, Armenia has neglected to develop its relations with Iran. Because of Yerevan's complimentary politics, Moscow has grown distrustful of Yerevan and it realizes it has to keep Armenia on a very short leash.

Just take a moment and reflect: The head of Armenia's security services (Armenia's FSB) was trained in the CIA affiliated institution known as The Fletcher School (this is the same prestigious institution that gave us American agents Raffi Hovanissian, Vartan Oskanian and more recently, Zaruhi Postanjyan); one of the world's largest CIA operations offices also known as US embassies is located in Armenia; a majority of Armenian's political opposition is Western-funded; and the number of Western-funded NGOs in Armenia is one of the highest in the world. Let's also recognize that all layers of Armenian society, from the Armenian street to the highest offices of Armenian government, host Western operatives. How else can one explain the following absurdity -
 https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xat1/v/t1.0-9/12573906_835626216547712_4116432139053759547_n.jpg?oh=9aa14523e77705f5a6b46bb710e5bd9a&oe=57BCE4B4

This is photo from a recent NATO military drill in Georgia. Take a moment and reflect on it. Folks, this photo does not reflect diplomatic pragmatism, it reflects diplomatic confusion, indecision and incompetence. Think about this: We are participating in NATO drills aimed ostensibly against Russia and we are doing so alongside Turks and Ukrainians. Who is making these insane decisions? We are in the year 2016. There are NATO-instigated destructive wars waging in Libya, Ukraine and Syria. Western powers have laid waste to the Middle East and north Africa. Fascism, pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism are the weapons of choice in their global rampage. West's ultimate intent is to weaken Israel's potential enemies and encircle and isolate Russia in order to break it apart at a later date. There may even be a grander agenda to pit Saudi Arabia against Iran and Turkey against Russia. Consequently, the entire south Caucasus region today is one bad incident away from igniting into a bloody inferno because of Western meddling. Armenia is surviving these times due to its strategic alliance with Russia, yet Armenian troops - along side troops from Turkey, Georgia and Ukraine - are participating in NATO drills?

I reiterate: Armenia survives in the south Caucasus because of its alliance with Russia, yet official Yerevan has turned Armenia into a playground for Western interests. As a strategic ally, Moscow has catered to every essential need Armenia has - from helping Armenia run the atomic power plant to providing free or affordable weapons system and military training, from providing very cheep natural gas to allowing billions of dollars in trade, from protecting Armenia's border against Turkey to allowing hundreds of thousands of Armenian to work in Russia and send money back to their families in Armenia - yet official Yerevan has done all it can to antagonize Moscow for the past twenty-five years. 

What idiot was it that said, Armenia is occupied by Russia?!

We all know that in politics there are no friends or enemies, only interests. We also know that there is no trust in politics. While Yerevan has the right to pursue Armenian interests (that they are doing things in the best interest of Armenia is altogether another matter), Yerevan must understand that Russia has the right to pursue its interests as well. While Armenians are right not to trust Russians, Armenians must also understand that Russians have the right not to trust Armenia either. Distrust in politics therefore works both ways.
 
Nevertheless, ask yourselves: How is collaborating with Western powers benefiting Armenia? Showing Russia that Armenia has "options"? Who is stupid enough to believe that Armenia has options? Let's for the sake of argument say Armenia does have options. Well, in that case, we must also realize that Russia also has options, and one of those options is to enable Baku to recapture Artsakh. Wake up folks, Russia has been the real reason why Baku has not attempted a full scale war against Artsakh. If Yerevan was genuinely trying to curb its relations with Moscow for closer relations with Western powers, what motivation would Moscow have in stopping a major war in Artsakh?

Anyone with a normally functioning brain would immediately recognize that Armenia has no real options when it comes to national security matters. Our tiny, impoverished, remote, landlocked and blockaded country is dependent on Russia for survival, and there is no one but Russia that can guarantee that survival. Our "nationalists" may not like it but that's a fact. Another fact is that the Western world has never and will never be in a position to guarantee Armenia's security. Many Armenians may be ignorant of all this, but Russian officials know all this well. Official Yerevan needs to recognize these things and put an end to its shortsighted stupidity. Armenian officials need to begin to formulate means and methods of better promoting Armenian interests inside the Kremlin. Armenians around the world need to put aside their Qaj Nazarian bravado and accept the notion that for well into the foreseeable future Armenia will have to be fully within the Russian world. In fact, I sleep better at nights knowing that it is.

 There are those that say, we can't have all our eggs in one basket.

Well, then why are we complaining that Russians are also thinking similarly when it comes to Armenia and Azerbaijan? Nevertheless, in the big picture, we need to realize that having eggs in the Western basket will ultimately do us Armenians no good. If the proverbial shit hits the fan, no Western country will come to our aid. One must be an utter fool to believe otherwise. Therefore, an Armenians egg in the Western basket is worthless. In fact, it's actually one egg less to use to tilt the Russian scale in further in our favor. The Armenian government during the first republic had a similar situation but in reverse. The fools at the time had put all their eggs in the Western basket, stubbornly refusing to come to terms with the region's Bolshevik reality. So when war broke out in the region once again and Western powers were no where in sight, Armenia suffered and Bolsheviks still took control of Armenia. Wouldn't it have been better if we had the foresight and pragmatism to make a deal with Bolsheviks instead?

What we need today is not eggs in the Western basket but a pan-national effort to deepen our relations with Moscow - but it not happening because Armenians are also dazzled by the multi-ethnic decadent theme park known as the Western world. This situation is a consequence of allowing Western led activists, Western funded officials and Western financed NGOs the freedom to do as they please in Armenia.

 Folks, we are repeating the same mistakes our ancestors made before Armenia was partitioned between Persia and Rome in the 5th century. We are repeating the same mistakes Armenia made before our ancestors surrendered the Armenian kingdom to Byzantium in the mid 11th century. We are repeating the same mistakes Armenia when our ancestors allied themselves with distant Crusaders and neglected developing ties with Byzantium and neighboring Muslim powers. We are repeating the same mistakes our ancestors made between 1918 and 1921 when they failed to come to terms with the Bolsheviks - because they thought they had genuine friends in the Western world. 

Folks, wake the hell up! We cant afford repeating these mistakes over-and-over again.

Politics is a chess game, and in the bigger picture, we Armenians must humbly understand that we are not even one of the main players. The best we can do is to become one of the important pieces on the global chess board, and pick a player (i.e. a political side) that we can trust in the long term. The only reliable player that has any interest in our existence is Russia. Those who play the game well will live, those who don't will die or be enslaved. We need to better understand how the game is being played. I think the latest clash in Artsakh may have given Armenians a false sense of security and strength. The last thing we need right now is empty bravado and an overestimation of our abilities. And the most dangerous thing we can do as a people is to see Russia as one of our enemies.  Russia has been and will remain Armenia's only and only ally. But we must also understand that Russia has serious geostrategic problems to solve. Moscow is therefore playing a cold, hard game of chess.

Since the summer of 2008, Moscow has been in full realpolitik mode, a mode totally devoid of niceties and pretenses. Moscow's approach to various geopolitical challenges around its incredibly long periphery is mechanical and by the book. No one can blame it because it has no choice in the matter. Russian policymakers understand that if Moscow's statecraft is not relentless and superior, Russia will suffer immensely, as it has in the past. Moscow is therefore in full realpolitik mode and it won't come out of it in the foreseeable future. Armenians better understand this and better try to maneuver within this reality. But we are not doing so because we are an emotional and politically illiterate people and Western powers via their servants within our society are more than eager to exploit these traits of our. If this is allowed to continue it will not bode well for our nation.

Those standing in the middle get run over, there are no soup kitchens in politics

Besides the fact that politics is an exact science, which is why there are a number of prestigious institutions around the world that teach it, politics is also a game. As noted above, those who play the game well live and prosper, those who don't either die or simply become enslaved. Armenians, as a collective body, are thus far failing to understand how the game is played. If official Yerevan's idea of playing the game simply means using its relationship with Western powers against Russia and vice-versa, the game is going to end up very costly for Armenia one day. Moreover, due to Yerevan's complimentary politics, Armenia's landscape has come to be completely infested with Western agents. Consequently, instead of putting all emphasis on developing deeper and stronger bonds with its two most important neighbors, Russia and Iran, Armenia's attention is constantly being drawn westward.

One of the strongest criticisms I have had about President Serj Sargsyan has been his desire to make all sides happy. 'Appeasement for all' has unfortunately been his modus operandi - domestically and internationally - since 2008. What the president fails to realize, however, is that when you try to make everyone happy, no one is really happy, including yourself. Although President Sargsyan is himself pro-Russian, he is politically weak, he has no political foresight and he is surrounded by money-grubbing jackals. President Sargsyan's administration is also infested by Western operatives. Character flaws within modern Armenians is also a major determining factor in all this. The burning desire for personal glory is the primary reason why high ranking Armenian officials are working closely with Western powers today. But this approach to politics will be getting more and more difficult and dangerous as the situation in the south Caucasus gets more and more tense.
 
I think it was Britain's Margaret Thatcher that once said: Those who stand in the middle of the road get run over. I think this is now beginning to happen to Armenia. Yerevan's complimentary politics is keeping both Moscow and the West unhappy with Yerevan, and Armenia may begin to feel their unhappiness.

I understand the political reasoning behind why Yerevan had to take the middle of the road approach during much of the past twenty-five years, but Yerevan has to understand that a lot has changed in the world since the 1990s. A new, multipolar world is slowly coming into existence. Russia has reemerged as the Caucasus region's sole power broker. The political West, which was never really even friendly towards Armenia, is now clearly in decline and is therefore in the process of setting fires around the world to retard its descent. 

If due to our political illiteracy we are unable to interpret these signs we will at the very least lose Artsakh. It's important to emphasize here that Moscow needs an Armenia that is dependent on Russia. We therefore have no choice but to operate within the Russian orbit. Instead of bitching and complaining like troubled children, it would be much better to figure out ways to properly exploit Armenia's strategic standing in Moscow.

Why should Russians blindly trust Armenians? Do Armenians blindly trust Russia? Has anyone taken a good look at Armenia's Russophobic political opposition in Armenia? Has anyone taken a good look at Armenia's money hungry officials? Has anyone taken a good look at just how many Western trained officials there are in President Sargsyan's government? Has anyone looked at how hopelessly Westernized the Armenian diaspora is? Has anyone noticed how Western political agendas are gradually gaining momentum inside Armenia in recent years? Has anyone noticed how the influential American-Armenian community is promoting Westernization in Armenia? While Moscow may be controlling Armenia's head, Western interests are gradually beginning to exert control over the rest of the Armenian body. In other words, Moscow is working on the top, while the West is working from the bottom up. If this continues, pretty soon the head and the body will be going very separate ways.

The reality of the matter is that Armenia's alliance to Russia is hinging on a very few individuals in Armenia. Armenia's political landscape today is infested with Western mercenaries. Had it not been for the so-called Karabakh clan, Armenia would have been turned into a Western brothel servicing regional Turks and Islamists a very long time ago. I don't blame Moscow for not trusting Armenians - because I myself do not trust Armenians when it comes to serious political matters.

I reiterate: Those standing in the middle of the road get run over. To which I would only add: There aren't any soup kitchens or free meals in politics. By controlling Armenia's national infrastructure, Moscow secures Yerevan's dependence. By becoming one of Azerbaijan's largest trade partner, Moscow secures Baku's favor and keeps Azerbaijan from drifting further into the Turkic/Islamic world. By arming Armenia, Moscow keeps Baku at bay. By arming Baku, Moscow keeps Yerevan at bay. Moscow is macro-managing the situation in the south Caucasus. We as a people need to recognize how the game is played in order to better understand how to participate in the game. 

One of the ways to understand the game and participate in it effectively is to recognize that Russia is Armenia's strategic partner. What do I mean by strategic partner? Russia will come to Armenia's aid if Armenia's existence was in danger, like it did in Abkhazia, like it did in south Ossetia, like it did in Novorossiya, like it did in Syria. Strategic partner means Russia will not cater to our every whim and it will not spoon feed us either. In other words: All tactical aspects pertaining to Armenia have to be handled by Armenians. In other words: Russia will give us the means to protect ourselves and begin the process of nation building, but we Armenians have to do the actual protecting and nation building. It is up to us Armenians to get our home in order.

We cannot expect Russians to rush to our aid every time Azeris fire a shot on the Armenian border. Let's just be happy that Russians are keeping Turks at bay and giving us the freedom to concentrate our limited resources against Azerbaijan. Besides, what happened to our boasting and pride? Every time Azeris fire a shot, we cry for Russian help? It's funny that those of us who most vociferously want independence from Russia are the ones who vociferously demand Russian protection every time Azeris fire a shot. 

We Armenian are like troubled little children. We demanded independence back in 1988. Now, we don't know what to do with it. We better realize that Armenia is now an independent nation-state and with independence comes a lot of hard work and responsibility. Yes, Armenia has a strategic alliance with Russia that protects  it in the event that its existence is threatened, but it is we Armenians that have to toil for Armenia, it is we Armenians that have to fight and die for Armenia. It is very pathetic of us to expect or demand Russian intervention every time we have a problem. 

Is Armenian life more precious than the lives of Russians? Yes? Why, because we are a small nation? 

Well, one thousand years ago Russia was much smaller than Armenia. While Armenia gradually shrunk under the feet of traversing empires, Russia gradually grew by fighting and defeating every empire that came its way. In short: Russians fought, Armenians didn't. In other words: True to their Viking and Iranic pedigrees, Russia has been a warrior nation, and we Armenians are a nation that loves pursuing the good life - wherever that may be. This is more-or-less why we are where we are. Armenians need to understand that powerful and prosperous nations are built by establishing strategic alliance with powerful neighbors, unconditionally rallying around the national flag and willingly spilling blood in both defensive and offensive wars. This is a requirement for all successful nation-states, especially those located in troublesome regions. If we can't do any of this then we can't expect to have an independent, powerful or prosperous nation in the south Caucasus.

Unfortunately, official Yerevan today is like a rudderless boat, aimlessly drifting on a stormy sea. Unfortunately, Armenian society is money oriented, disorganized, overly emotional and politically illiterate. Our Western agents are wasting no time in taking advantage of this unfortunate situation by exploiting every little flaw that exists (both real and perceived) in Armenia's relationship with Russia in an attempt to drive a wedge between Yerevan and Moscow. With our attention constantly being drawn Westward, we are failing to properly develop our relationship with the Russian Bear.

We are not properly developing our relationship with the Russian Bear

In closing, I like to reiterate a few fundamental concepts we Armenians need to be mindful of: Russia is a superpower. Russia is the largest nation on earth and its contains virtually limitless amounts of natural resources. Yet, Russia is also surrounded by major powers who have a history of invading it. With its western and eastern flanks being encroached on by Western powers and their allies in recent years, Moscow has earnestly begun to fortify its standing within its near-abroad. To effectively protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Moscow has always sought to create buffer zones around Russia (i.e. defensive depth) for protection against dangers emanating from its western, southern and eastern flanks. Theoretically at least, CSTO and EEU are meant to serve this purpose. This however will be an extremely difficult process for Russia essentially because Western powers and their propagandists embedded throughout former Soviet territory are diligently working to undermine Moscow's effort at every single turn.

Nevertheless, there are essentially two ways Moscow realizes it can create buffer zones around it: One way is to bring a nation that is willing to enter into an alliance with it into its political, economic and military orbit. The other way is to create a managed conflict within a nation, through which it can then have leverage and control. Moscow normally uses this measure against a nation that is unwilling to enter an alliance with Russia. There is also a drastic measure known as "scorched earth", but this is normally used as a last resort and/or in times of full scale war.

We therefore saw Moscow successfully pull Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan into its political, economic and military orbit. We also saw Moscow successfully managing conflicts in Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Azerbaijan. It should be added here that Baltic states were lost to NATO very quickly and very early on. Moscow has for now all but written them off. But through the brilliant execution of statecraft in more recent years, the rest of the former Soviet republics have been made part of the Russian orbit, of course in varying degrees. Nevertheless, Russia's footprint in the south Caucasus and beyond has been gradually increasing in recent years.

Due to its plurality of ethnic groups and Muslim majority, the Caucasus region remains arguably Russia's most complicated flank. The south Caucasus is therefore one of the most important strategic buffers Moscow needs to establish. Russia therefore needs to incorporate Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan into its political, economic and military orbit. With Armenia is already in, Moscow is now trying to bring Azerbaijan in. And Russian officials realize that if they do manage to bring Baku into their orbit, their work in Georgia will become that much easier.

But bringing Baku in will prove very difficult. Besides Russian, Baku also hosts Western, Turkish and Israeli interests. Moscow cannot afford to lose Baku. Moscow has to have a close alliance with Armenia. Consequently, the situation is very complicated. Although Armenia is allied to Russia, Moscow uses the Artsakh conflict to secure Armenia's allegiance. Although Azerbaijan has close relations with Russia, Moscow uses the Artsakh conflict to secure Azerbaijan's allegiance. As a result, Moscow needs to maintain the military parity between the Yerevan and Baku and also keep other powers away from the region. We must be mindful here that oil rich Baku has the money to purchase anything it wants from whoever it wants. Yerevan does not have that luxury. Russian officials also realize that if they do not sell arms to Baku, there are a number of other nations - like Israel, Turkey, Ukraine and China to name a few - that will. Moscow therefore sells to Baku what Baku wants and it essentially gives to Yerevan what Yerevan needs. More importantly, Moscow wants to keep other political interests powers out of Baku because Moscow knows that Azerbaijan can easily turn into yet another hotbed of pan-Turkic and Islamic extremism right on its border. In the big picture, maintaining Russian influence in Baku is also in Armenia's long-term interests.

Many indicators suggested that this year may be the year Moscow finally tried to settle the festering dispute over Artsakh. There are also strong indicators that Moscow may be seeking to station troops in the region and may eventually expect Yerevan and Baku to make concessions in exchange for peace. It is now increasingly looking as if the clash that took place in Artsakh during early April was a Western/Turkish attempt to sabotage Moscow's agenda because, as I have already pointed out, they do not want to see the establishment of Pax Russica in the region.

For their part, both Yerevan and Baku are not ready for concessions either. President Sargsyan may or may not have been made aware of this Western/Turkish plan while he was in Washington the week prior to the attack. FM Lavrov's statements from Yerevan suggested that the attempt to derail Moscow's initiative may have succeeded, at least for now. Moscow will wait a while longer before it resumes its efforts. Since official Yerevan (and Armenians in general) is unwilling to settle the dispute by ceding any amount of territory to Baku, Armenian officials have therefore set loose the country's Western agents to act as a canard. Consequently, Western agents in Armenia have successfully hijacked the political discourse and the narrative, and the country continues to get seeded with a toxin called Russophobia -
Pro-Europe activists in Armenia demand end to ties with Russia: http://www.armenianow.com/en/news/politics/2016/04/21/armenia-karabakh-paruyr-hayrikyan-khzmalyan-protest-russia-petition/1418/

“By Adhering to Russia, We have Lost Other Partner States and Reputation”: http://en.168.am/2016/04/19/5902.html

Karabakh Challenges Armenian-Russian Alliance: https://iwpr.net/global-voices/karabakh-challenges-armenian-russian-alliance

Armenians Protest Against Russian Arms Sales To Azerbaijan: http://www.rferl.org/content/armenia-protest-russian-arm-sales-to-azerbaijan/27673173.html
Russia’s Lavrov to be met with massive protest rally in Armenia: http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/210638/
After April Violence in Karabakh, Armenia’s Distrust in Russia Keeps Growing: http://www.jamestown.org/regions/thecaucasus/single
We as a people are not properly exploiting our relationship with the Russian Bear because our Western activists are constantly drawing our attention Westward. Official Yerevan has created this situation. Consequently, an army of Western activists seeding the current generation with Russophobia. The seeds in question are the seeds of Armenia's destruction.

My ultimate worry is the weakening of Russia's political and military position in Armenia. As long as there is no Pax Russica in the south Caucasus, Armenia will continue facing existential threats. We can't just sit back and assume that Russia will never leave Armenia. We can't just sit back and assume that Russia will remain forever strong in the region. The south Caucasus is one bad event away from turning back into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool. We need to see the bigger picture in front of us. We need to work more closely with Moscow to solve regional problems. None of this is happening essentially because there is no political foresight in Yerevan. This lack of vision and proactivity on the part of official Yerevan is the reason why President Sargsyan finds it much easier to run to Western capitols when Moscow is perceived to be doing things that Armenia does not like. The situation is now getting really critical because Armenian officials have unleashed their Western mercenaries as a canard (to delay a peace settlement in Artsakh) and as a smokescreen (to conceal their incompetence and corruption). We now have an entire country that is desperately dependent on Russia for survival, yet the majority of the people in that country either hates Russia or thinks Russians are backstabbers. Yerevan's incompetence has created a very fertile ground for Western/Turkish intelligence agencies to operate on.

We must never forget that the Caucasus region, both north and south, has a Turkic/Islamic majority and one bad incident away from having a Turkic/Muslim ownership. The Caucasus region needs a powerful hand over it. From an Armenian perspective, that powerful hand has to be Russian.

A Russian victory is the only way to pacify the south Caucasus and allow the region to maintain a Christian/Armenian presence. I call this Pax Russica. As long as the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance and their Turkic/Islamic allies have a foothold in the region, Armenia will be one bad incident away from another man made calamity. The 25 years old tug-of-war over the region between Russia and the West needs to end with a Russian victory, that is if we are to have an environment in the south Caucasus that will support Armenian life.

We are in the preliminary stages of a world war. The unipolar political order of the post-Soviet era is gradually coming to an end and a new multipolar one is in the process of being born. They are trying to encircle Russia. They are in the process of redesigning the Middle East. The tools of their agenda are Turks and Islamists. Consequently, major powers are clashing through proxies, thus far. Our tiny, impoverished, remote, landlocked and blockaded homeland is on the front lines of this historic global conflagration. The dispute over Artsakh pales in comparison to what may yet come to the already troubled region. We Armenians therefore better be ready and up to the task. Decisions we make today will be felt by Armenia for many decades to come. Bad decisions may result in the destruction of Armenia once again. 

Unfortunately, the signs are not all that encouraging. Official Yerevan has turned Armenia into a rudderless boat, and the already turbulent sea that this boat is on is due to experience a major storm. Armenia simply won't survive the coming storm without the Russian Bear at its side. That's a fact.

I am seriously concerned about Russophobia setting deep roots in Armenian society. Armenian Russophilia has traditionally kept Armenia in Russia's regional game plan since the late 18th century. Armenians have been an integral part of Russia's geostrategic calculus for the region essentially because Armenians have played a very visible role throughout Russian society for the past two hundred years. If we, due to our blinding emotions, political illiteracy and lack of foresight, allow Russophobia to set deep root inside Armenia, Armenians will eventually lose Artsakh - at the very least.

With the prevailing geopolitical climate in the south Caucasus region, I'm afraid the only thing that will save Armenia at this point is Russia's powerful hand in the country. This hand must be maintained in the country at all costs. The problem in the region is on a global scale. What we are seeing is a clash between superpowers and civilizations. The south Caucasus is one of the battlefields where Russia (and to a lesser extent Iran) are fighting the Anglo-American-Jewish world order and its Turkic/Islamic allies. Armenia's life will depend on the quality of Yerevan's relationship with Moscow and on whether or not Russia will be victorious in this war. We all therefore need to pray that Russia comes out standing once this nightmare is over. Armenians therefore better put an end to their petty nonsense and begin seriously thinking about Armenia's long term security. 

At the end of the day, it is best we keep in mind that Russia is not abandoning Armenia (or even Artsakh) and Russia continues to be Armenia's one and only ally. If there are real problems or flaws in Moscow vision towards the region, Armenians need to stop throwing temper-tantrums like little emotional children and figure out a way to work with their Russian counterparts to fix the problems that may exist. Our leaders cannot do this by giving Armenia's Western operatives freedom of movement in the country or by running off to Western capitols to complain about Moscow. We need to embark upon a serious effort to lobby Russian officials. We better realize that the Western world will never provide Armenia with the kind of security it desperately needs. We better realize that the West can never be an alternative to Russia. We as a people have the urgent need to wake-up and understand all this and quickly figure out ways to more efficiently exploit our relationship with the Bear. In other words, we as a people need to mature politically. I'm afraid maturing as a people may be a very long and bumpy road for us. I just hope we don't lose our statehood once again along the way.

Arevordi
Spring, 2016

***

The Nagorno-Karabakh Story the US Does Not Want You to Know

http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images/2016/4/7/1aa8182fcf8647d98719c34b9fe33a43_8.jpg

In the early morning hours of April 1-2 Azerbaijan launched a major military offensive into the disputed region Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) that’s been controlled and defended by NK Armenian forces since the Russian brokered truce ended a bloody three year war in 1994. While Azeri President Ilham Aliyev was flying back to Baku after meeting 24 hours earlier with John Kerry in Washington who claimed “an ultimate resolution” had been reached, Azerbaijan was already once again at war with the NK Armenians. The surprise element combined with the full scale major military operation spearheading a three pronged attack on Nagorno-Karabakh contact line from the southern, southeastern and northeastern directions resulted in the Aziri army seizing at least five Armenian villages and several strategic elevated heights inside the disputed territory with heavy loss of life reported on both sides including Armenian civilians whose home were shelled by Aziri artillery mortars and rockets. Though a ceasefire three days into the heavy fighting was brokered by Russia, repeated ceasefire breaches and continued combat operations have been observed.

Evidence that you’ll never see in Western MSM coverage is now surfacing from Armenian press documenting not only is the Azeri military still daily violating Tuesday’s ceasefire but far more significant and alarming is that the Azeris have been attacking villages inside the Republic of Armenia, not just in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. On Friday April 8 the press secretary of the Armenian Republic Ministry of Defense Artsrun Hovhannisyan disclosed that Azeri forces have been shelling civilian settlements with 120mm mortar fire in the villages of Karmir, Ttujur and Baghanisin within the Armenian provinces of Tavush and Gegharkunet. Fortunately there has been no reported casualties as yet. But when the first victims do get reported, the consequences for Azerbaijan could become far reaching.

By committing an act of war killing Armenian civilians on a second warfront by shelling civilian targets within the Republic of Armenia, the Azeri government is showing that its unilateral aggression remains unfazed, attacking an allied nation holding a mutual defense pact with Russia that stipulates if Armenia is attacked, Russia is compelled to come to Armenia’s aid and defense. Azerbaijan’s artillery shelling may force Russia to shift from acting as prime mediator in the Azeri-Armenian conflict to being drawn into the escalating war against Azerbaijan. The implications of such an expanding war are so serious it could destabilize not just the immediate region but trigger a rippling effect globally. This potentially grave development of course feeds right into the sinister hegemonic plan that the neocons behind US Empire have been fiendishly hoping and working towards for some time, to tie up Russia directly involving Putin in fighting yet another war on his doorstep that could quickly unravel to ignite World War III.

Obviously prior to firing artillery shells into residential villages inside Armenia, the Baku government was fully aware of the risks involved in committing such acts of war against the Russian bear’s defense ally Armenia. Because the precedent of launching artillery volleys into Armenian villages have occurred largely unnoticed and unaccountable before as three civilians were killed last September from Azeri shelling, Baku appears willing to take the calculated risk that Moscow will again not respond. Upping the aggression ante also suggests that Azerbaijan has full support not only from its closest, war-zealot Turk ally but also at least US-NATO’s tacit approval as well. And if this is the case, it confirms the US Empire continues to recklessly throw all caution to the wind, constantly baiting and provoking an all-out West versus East military showdown heading in only one direction – world war.

With a population close to 10 million possessing land that holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves, the Azerbaijani government has been busily buying up the deadliest weapons its oil-rich money can afford from Russia ($4 billion), Israel ($1.6 billion) and the US among others just to seek revenge against Armenians living in Nogorno-Karabakh, the de facto autonomous enclave the Azeris maintain was stolen from them in the war they lost in the 1990’s. So from 2004 to 2014 Azerbaijan has increased its military spending twenty-fold. In contrast, the NK target that the Azeris are wanting so badly to vanquish and destroy by brute military force is a population of little more than 150,000 that receives no big arms deals from any major power. Instead they are totally dependent on the economically strained Republic of Armenia for its sole military support and supplies

The unbroken will of this small Armenian population to defend its ancestral homeland that it’s inhabited far longer than Azeris ever became a Turkish offshoot as a nation or ethnicity is the same reason why 20,000 Armenian soldiers outfought and defeated 64,000 Azeris. And the Azerbaijani military actively recruited mercenary foreign nationals from Turkey’s Grey Wolves, Chechen militants and al Qaeda terrorists back in the 1991-1994 war. In recent years ongoing skirmishes at the contact line along the NK as well as Armenian borders with Afghanistan have increased with last August and September flurried gunfire exchange an example of the growing intensity of border flare-ups.

Spokesman for the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic David Babayan stated several days ago that evidence is emerging that strongly points to Azerbaijan once again being joined by the unsavory likes of Turkish Grey Wolves and even Islamic State terrorists fresh from the Raqqa, Syria battlefields. Firsthand accounts from witnesses in the overrun NK village of Talish claim that Armenian families and soldiers are being beheaded and brutally executed with ears cut off that confirm the pattern of barbaric foreign mercenaries fighting alongside the Azeri army. Babayan also added that townspeople from surrounding Azerbaijani villages have recently fled for their lives while terrorists looting their homes have even been reported to murder and rape local Azeri citizens. Other accounts based on military sources also reveal that an Aziri ISIS brigade has rushed from Syria to fight another war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Finally the Iranian ARAN agency has published that ISIS has had a special training ground reserved for Azeri Islamic State recruits located on the Iraqi-Syrian border that is now fighting against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. With the media blackout in Western nations, you will never hear that ISIS terrorists are now fighting and committing atrocities against civilians in the Armenian enclave.

Already calls for Hague war crime tribunals are sounding as officials in the Republic of Armenia are beginning the lengthy process to gather eyewitness testimonials and accounts documenting war crimes that the Azeri military has committed against civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Vice President of the National Assembly of the Armenian Republic Eduard Sharmazanov was actually speaking to the Armenian Diaspora:
We must use all the platforms to show the civilized world that Azerbaijan, that takes military actions against civilians, must be punished for violating the norms of international law and of the Geneva Conventions.
Ever since the 1994 truce, the Azeris have been plotting revenge for losing the Nogorno-Karabakh War. Their agenda has always been as soon as they gain a military advantage with all its bought advanced weaponry, they will invade and retake the small enclave by force. Impatient over “the frozen conflict” after twenty years of OSCE Minsk Group’s utter failure to resolve the conflict, recently spurred on by fellow Turk Erdogan’s “fight to the end” rhetoric and backroom pressure along with US Empire’s tacit approval meeting with Kerry 24 hours ahead of the latest incursion, combined with continued record low oil prices that created domestic unrest and public protest in Baku in recent months, a week ago Azeri President Ilham Aliyev chose to rally his nation behind the Azeri “wag the dog” flag launching the biggest military offensive into Nagono-Karabakh since the war ended 22 years ago.

While the deranged Erdogan was in Washington last week, he met with high powered lobbyists Mercury LLC he has hired to push the absurdist propaganda that Armenians are the biggest threat to everyone’s national security since their military alliance with Russia is rapidly building. As the Armenian genocide remembrance day April 24thapproaches, Erdogan as Aliyev’s “big brother” is on the warpath to finish the job not completed a century ago and it’s no accident that a day after he railed on about the threat Armenians pose to the world, little brother launched his military campaign against the NK Armenians. The Russians are fully aware of Erdogan’s antagonism as vice speaker of Russia’s State Duma recognized the Turkish president as “a third force” behind the NG violence.

Yet another behind the scenes culprit to unrest and violence in this world is Israel. It’s just been learned that Azerbaijan has given Israel full use of its airfields near the Iran border. Israel’s sophisticated advances in unmanned drone technology changing modern warfare and the Jewish State’s increasingly close relationship in recent years give both Iran and Armenia pause for concern. That on top of recent sales of Israeli drones as part of a 2012 $1.6 billion arms deal package procured by the Azerbaijani military have been widely deployed in recent days for both enemy surveillance and kill purposes in Artsakh (the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh). One UAV was shot down the other day spying over the Artsakh capital city of Stepanakert while OSCE officials were meeting below with NG leaders. Another Israeli-made kamikaze drone hit and demolished a bus killing seven Karabakh volunteer soldiers inside. Alleged accusations have been made that the drones are being remotely piloted by Israelis. As an aside from that Minsk Group meeting, the Russian co-chair announced that representatives from Artsakh will finally earn a place at the negotiation peace talk table.

On numerous occasions the Azeri dictator Aliyev who inherited the job from his father in 1993 has sworn to “wipe Armenia off the face of the earth.”  Holocaust scholar Yair Auron commenting on Israel’s sale of such high powered weapons to Azerbaijan stated: The sale of weapons to a government committing genocide is like the sale of weapons to Nazi Germany during World War II.

As a parallel process example of how the Baku aggression has been ramping up in recent years, the Azeri army upped both the ammo charges and killing radius of its Howitzers from 60-82mm in December 2014 to 120mm as of March 2015, the same shelling that’s now ravaging homes in Armenia as well. Meanwhile, while Baku keeps buying bigger, more lethal weapons from Russia, Israel and America, on Saturday Prime Minister Medvedev reasserted it will continue selling arms to Azerbaijan (and Armenia) in its unsubtle attempt to lure Baku away from the West’s undue influence. Russia supplies 85% of Azerbaijan’s weapons. Last year the cozy relations US Empire was nurturing with Azerbaijan suddenly went sour when criticism over Baku’s human rights was levied, which resulted in Baku cancelling its prelim dance to EU membership.

According to the latest International Democracy Index rating, Azerbaijan scored amongst the highest in the world for authoritarianism with a score of 6.68 out of a possible 7 being worst, cited for multiple major human rights violations chief amongst them intolerance toward dissent and freedom of press, undemocratic electoral process (score of 7) along with rampant corruption. The recent Panama papers exposing off shore fortunes indicate how the Aliyev family have made their secret billions sidestepping the law. Of course the US government’s hardly in a position to criticize as it’s certainly no beacon for democracy anymore. In contrast, despite not being formally recognized by the international community, the European Free Alliance (EFA) cited Nagorno-Karabakh as having demonstrated one of the highest democratic evaluations amongst post-Soviet nations.

The Soviet Union never recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as a separate sovereign entity from the Azeri state it originally gifted Baku three quarters of a century ago. But for that matter, neither has Artsakh’s biggest supporter and ally the Republic of Armenia. A Russian peacekeeping force could be introduced but a peaceful outcome that all parties can live with satisfactorily seems unlikely. It appears all positions are intractable while Russia takes the lead in working on an amicable resolution that includes Iran much to the chagrin of US Empire and Israel. The South Caucasus as the ancient East-West Silk Road passageway is presently coveted by the most powerful global forces on earth, all vying for strategic chessboard turf that’s ground zero for civilization crossroads.

Armenia on the other hand is a landlocked, economically depressed, geographically tiny nation without oil, flanked on each side by its enemies’ closed borders which has further led to Armenia’s isolation. Even a loan of $200 million from Russia was necessary just for procurement of a first installment of arms shipments that can’t compete with Baku’s near $5 billion a year military budget alone that’s near twice as much as Armenia’s total national budget. In comparison with the newer advanced killer power weaponry that big oil money buys, Armenia is stuck with last century weapons used in the 1990’s Nagorno-Karabakh war. Though Moscow has pledged arms parity, they remain undelivered. The truth is Armenia is at the mercy of Russia for its very survival. Oil money, advanced arms and big business rule the world, whether it’s the Western or Eastern worlds.

The dire circumstance that Armenians in both Artsakh Republic and the Armenian Republic presently face in this latest round of war with Azerbaijan, Turkey and US Empire appears rather bleak. Though it may capture appeal in its underdog role in the modern day version of David versus Goliath amongst nations, and already has the Armenian Diaspora in cities like Los Angeles and around the world mobilizing support for its cause, it has powerful enemies that would be happy to see both Armenia and Russia go down in flames. The planet is in peril, and Nagorno-Karabakh might be the archduke of the latest world war.


Why Do Neo–Cold Warriors Want Another Proxy Fight With Russia?

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The recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a case study in how anti-Putin rhetoric obscures what is really going on

Earlier this month, intense fighting erupted between Azerbaijan and the Armenians of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, who are supported by Armenia. The conflict dates back to 1988 when the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, then an autonomous region of Soviet Azerbaijan, used Mikhail Gorbachev’s glasnost to petition for the transfer of their region to the Soviet Armenian Republic. Large demonstrations were held in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, and in Yerevan, the capital of Soviet Armenia. Clashes between Armenians and Azerbaijanis ensued, and after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the conflict exploded into a full-scale war. It ended with a Russian-brokered cease-fire in 1994.

Regional observers scrambled to make sense of the most recent violence in Nagorno-Karabakh. Most presented balanced and reasonable analyses of the clashes. However, there were also those who failed to take into account the historical and regional dynamics and instead relied on unfortunate Cold War-style anti-Russian rhetoric. They maintained that the recent hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh were nothing less than a plot personally cooked up in the Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Such analyses have recently appeared in the media and unfortunately obscure the reality of a very complex part of the world, making it harder for the genuinely curious American observer to understand what is going on.

Writing in The Wall Street Journal, analyst Svante Cornell asserted that Putin instigated the recently hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. Putin, he argued, sought to use the conflict “to try to undermine” the government of Azerbaijan. “Controlling that artery [Azerbaijan] is essential to Mr. Putin’s imperial project,” wrote Cornell, adding that the Russian leader “benefits from reminding both parties (and the West) of his ability to wreak further havoc in a region already marred by conflict, lest they toe his line.”

Similarly, in The Washington Post, Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, contended that Putin was “exploiting the situation” and “laying the foundation for future crises, while Washington watches.” He also implicitly alleged that Putin may have prodded a “local military commander” in Nagorno-Karabakh to “reignite the conflict in pursuit of narrow political interests.” This is an interesting theory from a man who, according to The Wall Street Journal, encouraged Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in the lead-up to the 2008 war in Georgia. Notably, Saakashvili joined Cornell and Bryza in arguing that the recent hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh “strongly resembles a trademark Russian provocation.” Not surprisingly, the beleaguered Saakashvili, who is wanted on criminal charges in Georgia and Russia, accused Putin of being personally responsible for the flare-up in Karabakh. “I always knew that Putin would use a lame duck status of the US administration for stirring up a major trouble,” he maintained. “Moscow had been preparing for the unfreezing of the Karabakh conflict for quite some time already.”

The allegation that Putin personally fomented unrest in Nagorno-Karabakh is far from reality. However, despite all this rhetoric and intrigue, does Moscow really want to wreak havoc in Nagorno-Karabakh? The answer is simply no. To the contrary, Russia has a strong interest in maintaining stability in the region, not undermining it. A conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has the ability to throw the entire Caucasus into a state of chaos, creating serious problems for Russian state security. Furthermore, it could potentially bring Russia into a direct confrontation with Turkey, and, consequently, NATO. The allegation that Putin personally fomented unrest in the distant mountain valleys of Nagorno-Karabakh is far from reality. This assertion not only fails to take into account real security concerns of the Russian state, but it also implies that no real internal politics exist in Russia at all. In fact, Putin does not make decisions alone. He consults with both liberals and hardliners within his administration. He may be a strong leader with authoritarian tendencies, but he is certainly no Stalin.

Those supporting the “Russian instigation” thesis also overlook the agency of the other countries in the region. The narrative that Russia provoked the violence to undermine US–Azerbaijani relations implies that Moscow influenced Yerevan, its closest partner in the Caucasus, to attack Azerbaijani positions. However, the facts indicate that it was the Azerbaijani side that launched the attack against the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, not vice-versa. This is not surprising, given the fact that the fall in global energy prices has pummeled Azerbaijan’s petro-economy. Observers of the region assert that Azerbaijan’s autocratic president, Ilham Aliyev, was only too eager to turn the public’s attention away from the deteriorating domestic situation in the “Kuwait on the Caspian.” Moreover, the Azerbaijani attack was vocally encouraged by Turkey, which unlike the US, EU, or Russia, never explicitly called for a cessation of hostilities. It is no secret that Ankara has sought closer ties with Baku in light of the broader Russo-Turkish confrontation over Syria and the Kurds. It has also used its lobbyists to convince Washington that Russia has been “weaponizing” Armenia against Turkey and NATO. These factors led to credible allegations of Turkey’s involvement in stirring up tension in the region. Indeed, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev recently suggested that Ankara had “add[ed] fuel to the fire” in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry also apparently took the allegations of Turkish involvement seriously. After an extended phone conversation, both Kerry and Lavrov “condemned attempts by certain ‘external players’ to whip up the standoff around Karabakh.” This clearly contradicts Cornell’s assertion that “the Obama administration apparently believes the Armenian–Azeri conflict exists in a vacuum, isolated from regional tensions” and that it “doesn’t take the region seriously.” It also belies Bryza’s argument that there was a “lack of cooperation” between Washington and Moscow on the issue. Both Cornell and Bryza further dismissed Iran’s potential role as a mediator and a constructive player in the region. In fact, Tehran has been understandably concerned about a possible spillover of the conflict, especially after the accidental firing of missiles by Azerbaijani forces into Iranian territory during the most recent hostilities. This concern has prompted Iranian officials to call for an immediate cease-fire, aligning Tehran with Moscow, Washington and Brussels.

Overall, these commentators condemned Washington for failing to see that “America’s interests are fundamentally opposed to Mr. Putin’s” and that Moscow is “part of the problem, not the solution.” However, by virtue of history and geography, the reality is that Russia is part of the solution. It was Russia that brokered the 1994 cease-fire on Nagorno-Karabakh, and it was Russia again that brokered the April 5 cease-fire, which ended the most recent clashes. The reality is simply that Russian and American interests on global security do overlap, not only in Syria or Iran, but also in Nagorno-Karabakh. No amount of lobbying or “caviar diplomacy” from Ankara or Baku can change that.

Source: http://www.thenation.com/article/why-do-neo-cold-warriors-want-another-proxy-fight-with-russia/
This ‘frozen’ post-Soviet conflict is heating up and fits right in with current global chaos

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When Muslim Azerbaijanis and Christian Armenians went to war between 1992 and 1994 over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, about 30,000 living in a territory the size of Prince Edward Island died and as many as one million were displaced from there and from Azerbaijan. The savage fighting there presaged the intensely personal communal violence that was about to tear apart the Balkans, Chechnya and, eventually, Eastern Ukraine and now nearby Syria and Iraq.

Round two of this obscure, intractable battle for the remote, predominately ethnic Armenian mountain enclave within Azerbaijan may have begun last week with an Azeri offensive that retook some of the territory it lost the first time around. With more than 60 deaths during four days of renewed hostilities, one of the many “frozen” post-Soviet conflicts — Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, Transnistria — may have suddenly became unfrozen. Both the Azeris and the separatist Armenians have issued dire ultimatums to each other to stand down. Or else.  Azerbaijan warned that it was prepared to launch an attack on Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert. The Armenians vowed to reclaim the land they held for 22 years and have just now lost.

Perhaps remembering the ruthless pogroms and ethnic cleansing that took place then and during the Bolshevik Revolution, the two sides announced an immediate truce Tuesday that has not yet been tested. The earlier iteration of this conflict in a breathtakingly beautiful but impoverished corner of the Caucasus was where I witnessed deeply rooted ethnic hatred up close for the first time. When I drove out from the Azerbaijan capital, Baku, to the Azeri side of the front near Stepanakert, there was a Second World War-vintage railway carriage converted into a hospital where surgeons were hacking off limbs in appalling conditions. Other coaches were packed with the cries, whimpers and stench of the maimed and the dead.

It was a mystery to me how the Armenians won a crushing victory in the post-Soviet. The Azerbaijanis outnumbered them by more than three to one. The Azeris also had lots of oil. The landlocked Armenians were far poorer and had a much lower standard of living. After several decades of high energy prices and no longer having to share the lucre with Moscow, the Azeris have been rearming themselves specifically so that they can get Nagorno-Karabakh back. It is a development that may have already shifted the military balance forever. As always, though, it is more complicated than that. Turkey, which has had interests in the region for decades, has strongly aligned itself with the Turkic-speaking Azerbaijan. Moscow has sold weapons to both sides, but Orthodox Russians have naturally sided with their Orthodox Armenians co-religionists. Muslim Iran and Christian Georgian are keenly interested in tilting the situation to their advantage, too.

It has often been said that much of the current tribal turmoil in the Middle East is the result of borders imposed by such imperial powers as Britain and France because it suited their interests at that time. In same way a major reason for the troubles between Azerbaijan and Armenia stem from the fact that Vladimir Lenin arbitrarily decided that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh must be part of the republic of Azerbaijan at a time when the two sides were fighting amid the ruins of Turkey’s collapsing Ottoman Empire and British diplomatic and military intrigues. It is also little different from how Nikita Khrushchev arbitrarily decided one night — while rumoured to be on a drinking binge — that the Russian majority in Crimea was to be part of the Ukraine, creating grave tensions that still exist today.

With so much already on his plate in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere from Black Sea and the Caucasus to Russia’s borders with the former Baltic states and Poland in the north, Vladimir Putin may have strong-armed the two sides into agreeing to this ceasefire. But with Turkey saying Baku must rule the enclave, it is an open question whether the truce can last. Armenia wants a buffer between its kinsmen in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Azeris, and still controls a chunk of Azeri territory outside the enclave. The Azeris want all of that land back, plus what Lenin gave them in Nagorno-Karabakh in 1920.

A further complication is that several hundred thousand Armenians were forced to leave their homes in Baku during the 1990s. The latest twist is that some Armenian refugees from the war in Syria have recently settled in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has as its thin lifeline a twisty mountain road back to Armenia. With the Kremlin and Ankara already dangerously angry with each other over Syria, Bashar al Assad’s regime and Turkey’s downing last November of a Russian warplane, the Turks and Kurds slugging it out in northern Syria and southern Turkey, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant fighting just about everyone in Iraq and Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh is another perfect 21st-century mess with consequences far beyond the tiny enclave’s fragile borders.


Encirclement of Russia: the War for Ngorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan

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Encirclement of Russia: the war in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan: April 3, 2016: There have been military clashes between the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan since the night of Friday to Saturday. Many deaths are reported. The strong fighting is reported between Martakert and Hadrut on the front line. The Armenian army based in Nagorno-Karabakh, mainly populated by Armenians,** reportedly shot down two drones, tanks and two helicopters according to sources of the Armenian news agency. Baku announced that the Armenian army has lost a number of soldiers.

Plan U.S.A.?

Is it because Armenia refused to become a NATO base? According to the NATO website*** dated March 10, 2016 Armenia would be a basis for the establishment of partnerships. NATO would, therefore, try to support Armenia in its intent to keep Nagorno-Karabakh and to infiltrate the lines of Russian diplomacy? NATO has, in any case, the desire to open a new front against Russia, since, according Azernews article dated as of March 10, 2016, as on the NATO website, we clearly see NATO’s attempts to obtain agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan to encircle Russia. Azerbaijan, which has been trying for years to distance itself from Russia has finally agreed to become the NATO base against Armenia since 10 March 2016. Azerbaijan, as an ally to Turkey including on the Armenian genocide issue and as a NATO partner, would attack Armenia to injure an ally to Russia, which refused to support NATO%?

In any case, the war between NATO and Russia is resuming in Karabakh while NATO threatens Russia in Ukraine and in the Baltic countries. Since 2014 strong NATO troop movements have been observed in Central Europe. Night-time movements of NATO military convoys have been seen by people in Germany, Latvia, Estonia, Poland. In 2017 NATO must consolidate its troops in countries of the European Union border with Russia. With new fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh the threat of a Third World War is getting closer and NATO’s intent to encircle Russia is confirmed. The Russian President, as ever, calls for ceasefire!


Armenian-Azeri Tensions: Washington’s “Reverse Brzezinski” Strategy against Russia and China

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The Reverse Brzezinski Unleashed

The Stratagem: The author published an analytical research paper in June 2014 whereby he expounded upon the geostrategic concept of the “Reverse Brzezinski”, which is basically the return to the US’ 1980s Afghan-style strategy of engineering debilitating quagmires for Russia but which can also be applied against other Great Powers such as China. The American perspective is that certain geopolitical destabilization scenarios can be whipped up around the post-Soviet rim which could take a tempting conventional Russian military intervention to quell, although this in turn would actually be a predetermined trap set by the US in order to tie Russia down in a needless war which would then bleed it of its physical, material, economic, and strategic capital. The three most likely Reverse Brzezinski battlefields are Donbass, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Fergana Valley, and it’s no surprise that all three of them have seen a pitched uptick in violence over the past week. Not counting the obvious and discussed-about situation surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic warned last week that a significant deterioration was occurring along the Line of Contact with the Kievan forces, and Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan just pulled back from the brink of a border standoff that threatened to quickly grow into a larger conflict. These three examples of post-Soviet peripheral destabilizations and their near-simultaneous outbreak cannot be seen as incidental, but instead are part of what the author had initially forecasted almost two years ago about the US’ ultimate Reverse Brzezinski scenario against Russia.

Identifying The Culprit: Out of the three ‘probes’ that the US had launched in gauging the viability of the next Reverse Brzezinski battlefield, the one in Nagorno-Karabakh quickly became the scene of the largest-scale fighting and the conflict with the greatest potential to rapidly escalate into an all-out war. It’s unclear which side fired the first shot that led to the latest spate of ceasefire violations, and ultimately, while this is very important from a normative and legal perspective, it will likely never be known 100% for sure owing to the completely different and contradictory narratives coming from both the Armenian and Azeri camps. There’s a convincing case being made that Azerbaijan started it in order to assist Turkey and the US in the New Cold War, but all of the aforementioned evidence of hitherto close Russian-Azeri cooperation and dwindling Azeri-Western ties draws the superficially simple explanation into question (although it doesn’t discount it entirely). From the other side, Armenia has nothing at all to gain by trying to lure its Russian ally into a renewed Nagorno-Karabakh continuation war and would likely draw Moscow’s sharp and immediate public consternation if it was even suspected in any sense of probability that this was truly the case. With both the Armenian and Azeri leaderships obviously not having anything of objective self-interest to gain in stoking the flames of a new war that could predictably involve Russia, all eyes once more return to the US in pondering the question of “cui bono”.

The Fog Of War: To repeat what was just mentioned above, it will probably never be ascertained without a single shred of reasonable doubt which of the two sides’ forces fired the first start that sparked the worst outbreak of violence since the 1994 ceasefire, but it’s exceedingly likely that a provocateur or group thereof on one or both sides took advantage of the fog of war in instigating the present hostilities. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has full and total immediate control over their frontline forces, and the edgy state of near-war tension that they’ve both been exposed to for over the past two decades (and especially recently with the latest September 2015 shelling) means that a ‘jumpy’ and/or easily provoked serviceman or two could effortlessly be manipulated into a militant response that generates a disproportionate reaction by the opposing forces. In fact, judging by the long list of ceasefire violations even before this latest incident, it seems highly likely that this has been the case many times before and might even have been tested out and perfected well in advance of what could actually have been a preplanned Reverse Brzezinski geopolitical sabotage attempt by the US. With both sides restraining themselves for the time being and President Putin calling on each of them to step back from the brink, it certainly looks like neither one really knows who started the fighting first and that all sides are scrambling to figure out what’s going on and prevent it from unwittingly getting out of control and damaging all of their interests before it’s too late.

Broking Peace In Beijing: It’s not known which direction the latest hostilities can go in, but it’s clear that their intensity and scope are unprecedented for any time since the 1994 ceasefire. The OSCE Minsk Group conflict resolution party that was created in the mid-1990s and is co-chaired by Russia, the US, and France has pitifully failed to make any significant progress in improving the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in its more than two decades of existence and has proven itself by the latest events to be absolutely irrelevant in calming the present situation. For that reason, a new format must be immediately spearheaded in order to increase the effectiveness of conflict resolution mechanisms and prevent the uncontrollable escalation of violence between the two sides. The author wrote a three-part series almost exactly a year ago about this topic and how the SCO, in which Armenia and Azerbaijan are now officially dialogue partners, can substitute as the most effective replacement forum for the outdated OSCE Minsk Group and inject the peace process with the much-needed impetus by China’s totally neutral participation. For the specific details of this plan, the reader is strongly encouraged to read the author’s articles about “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: The OSCE Minsk Group Is Obsolete”, “SCO Will Be The New Framework For Resolving The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict”, and “How The West Plans To Prevent The SCO From Mediating In Nagorno-Karabakh”, but the following paragraph will succinctly summarize the most relevant aspects of this series as they pertain to the present article.
 
Unlike Russia which various domestic Armenian and Azeri voices falsely accuse of being “biased” one way or another, China has no such accusative baggage and is generally regarded by both countries and their citizens as being completely neutral in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. As a rapidly rising Great Power with the impressive capability of exerting out-of-regional full spectrum influence, China is uniquely qualified to diplomatically play a prime role offering its stereotypically pragmatic guidance in pushing forward a win-win solution for everyone. China’s only interest is that stability can be preserved so that its myriad New Silk Road networks can succeed in spanning the globe and integrating as many of its corners as possible, and Beijing is astutely well aware that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could disrupt its vision for the Caucasus and even disastrously evolve into a larger conflagration that destabilizes more than its immediate warfighting participants. For all intents and purposes, China is much better configured to neutrally negotiate between Armenia and Azerbaijan than either the US or France, two of the three existing co-chairs of the failed OSCE Minsk Group, and in the interests of Eurasian solidarity and multipolar New Silk Road win-win benefit, it’s clear to see how much more preferable it would be for China to replace its Western counterparts in the negotiating process and complement Russia’s positive role via the already proven world-changing dynamics of the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership.

Concluding Thoughts: The most recent and unprecedented outbreak of violent hostility over Nagorno-Karabakh has taken many international observers by surprise, but had they been fully cognizant of the US’ Reverse Brzezinski stratagem and Washington’s ambitions to destabilize Russia at all costs, then the latest events wouldn’t’ have been too unexpected. They occur at a significant geopolitical time when Russia has impressively flexed its muscles in outwardly defying the US’ unipolar vision for global hegemony by partaking in the wildly successful albeit physically limited anti-terrorist operation in Syria, and it’s reasonable to consider whether the US provoked the heated clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh as a form of asymmetrical ‘punishment’ for this historic development.

While there are many theories swirling around about who is to blame for all of this and what their ultimate goals are, the conventional explanation that Azerbaijan is behaving as a completely controlled puppet of the West has yet to be proven in this instance and is largely exposed as being a superficial stereotypical reaction when the recent geopolitical trajectory of Yerevan and Baku is taken into account. There’s no ignoring that Azerbaijan has very close relations with proven troublemakers such as the US, Turkey, and Israel, but it’s premature to jump to the conclusion that they ordered their partner to do this when all existing evidence up until this point proves to Baku moving noticeably closer to Moscow over the past year and equally further from the West. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it can be completely discounted that Azerbaijan was put up to do this by its unipolar partners or alternatively that Armenia is guilty for everything, but that the situation is infinitely more complicated that the prevailing alternative media narratives largely make it out to be and is likely attributable to the US exploiting the dangerous fog of war that and decades-long tensions that had settled along the Line of Contact in order to provoke a Reverse Brzezinski scenario for its ultimate gain and each parties total expense.

Additionally, Russia’s position is also a lot more complex than simply providing CSTO assistance to Armenia, since like what was mentioned earlier, this mutual defense guarantee does not extend to the Armenian-populated areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. Moscow still formally maintains that this territory is legally part of Azerbaijan, though with the key qualifier of understanding being this is the position for now and could theoretically change due to developing circumstances much as its previous positions about Georgian and Ukrainian territorial integrity changed in 2008 and 2014 respectively on a case-by-case basis. With this being considered, Russia does not want to see Armenia and Azerbaijan conventionally go to war with one another, although it would unquestionably protected its CSTO if it were attacked on its home turf, with the key qualifier being that this relates only to its internationally recognized borders and not to what it legally views for the time being as Azerbaijan’s “occupied” region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The quandary that an Armenian-Azeri War would provoke for Russia is immense and it would certainly throw Moscow into a geostrategic dilemma whereby it’s forced by circumstances beyond its control to make what amounts to a zero-sum Catch-22 decision about whether or not to support Armenia’s forces in Nagorno-Karabakh.

While there has yet to exist to a peace proposal that satisfies both the Armenians and the Azeris, it’s unquestionable that the existing OSCE Minsk Group process has unequivocally failed in its stated objective of mitigating tension between the two sides and resolving their heated dispute. This means that a fresh, bold, and new alternative must be undertaken in order to inject the process with a renewed impetus, and the most likely possibility for this to occur is for the two recent SCO Dialogue Partners to request China’s mediation in their spiraling dispute. It’s not known how effective this would be in practice, but seeing as how the present model has miserably underperformed in reaching any of its founding objectives, there’s nothing to be lost by removing the unipolar states of the US and France from the conflict resolution process and replacing them with multipolar and pragmatic participation of China in hopefully harnessing the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership and preventing another recurrence of the Reverse Brzezinski.


Fighting in Nagorno Karabakh: A Headache for Moscow

Troops in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

News of a flare up in fighting in the Caucasian territory of Nagorno Karabakh will cause the Kremlin serious worry. Nagorno Karabakh is a small territory which before 1988 was largely Armenian but which is now entirely so. For complicated historical reasons, whilst the USSR was in existence, Nagorno Karabakh, despite being predominantly Armenian, instead of being incorporated in the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic (one of the 15 constituent republics of the USSR) was incorporated in the Azerbaijanian Soviet Socialist Republic instead.

There is much argument about the reasons for this, with the Azeris claiming that Nagorno Karabakh was always historically part of their territory, the Soviet authorities in Moscow saying it was done out for pragmatic reasons to develop a small and poor region by attaching it to the richer of the two Caucasian republics (Azerbaijan) rather than the poorer (Armenia), and some scholars saying it was the result of Stalin’s divide and rule policy. I do not have the necessary knowledge of Caucasian history to say who is right.   What I will say that what I have heard is that Nagorno Karabakh was incorporated in Azerbaijan rather than Armenia not by design but by accident - and I strongly suspect that is the truth.

The territory was apparently occupied by the Red Army and administered from Bolshevik controlled Baku (Azerbaijan’s capital) during the Russian Civil War before the Red Army conquered Armenia - which enjoyed a brief period of independence following the Russian Revolution. This arrangement was then left unchanged even after Armenia was forcibly incorporated into the USSR because of bureaucratic inertia.  This was true even during the period of the Transcaucasus Soviet Socialist Republic when all these territories (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh and also Georgia) were supposedly administered jointly.

That is not to say that there were not other factors.  Over time it became politically increasingly difficult to change the arrangement because of hardening Azeri opposition to any change.   Apparently there were also objections to any increase in the USSR’s Armenian administered territory from Turkey’s leader, Mustafa Kemal Attaturk. Kemal was one of Moscow’s few friends during the inter-war years and the Soviets were unwilling to offend him. What I have also heard is that after the Second World War, following Armenian complaints, Stalin decided shortly before his death to revisit the whole issue, and was prepared to look into the possibility of having Nagorno Karabakh transferred to Armenia from Azerbaijan.  Supposedly he appointed the powerful Central Committee Secretary Georgy Malenkov to carry out an inquiry to look into the question and to report back to him.

By this point relations between Russia and Turkey had all but broken down after Turkey joined NATO, so the need to appease Turkey no longer existed. Stalin however died before a decision was made.  This removed the one person with the power and authority to solve the whole problem by transferring Nagorno Karabakh from Azerbaijan to Armenia at the stroke of a pen. Following Stalin's death Malenkov’s inquiry was left to lapse.  With the situation in the Caucasus firmly under control the Soviet leaders in Moscow were far too absorbed in their own power struggle to worry about a local dispute in the far off trans Caucasus.

Though Azerbaijan and Armenia for the remainder of the Soviet period remained constituent republics of the same country - the USSR - the Armenian inhabitants of Nagorno Karabakh continued to resent their rule from Baku and still hankered for union with Armenia. Though the fact is sometimes denied, I have no doubt that the quarrel between Armenians and Azeris over Nagorno Karabakh has at least at some level also been coloured by the greater quarrel between the Armenian people and Turkey. Azeris are a Turkic people speaking a language similar - though not identical - to the Turkish spoken in Turkey, though unlike the Turks of Turkey - who are Sunni - the Azeris are Shia.

Though the Azeris were not involved in the Armenian Genocide, Armenians in my experience tend to conflate them with Turks, and it is in fact the case that relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey have become very close since Azerbaijan achieved independence after the USSR dissolved in 1991. Turkey has sided strongly with Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia and has imposed an economic blockade on Armenia to support Azerbaijan in the conflict. The conflict exploded in 1988 when the local authorities in Nagorno Karabakh voted to secede from Azerbaijan and to join Armenia  The action triggered protests in both Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as in Nagorno Karabakh itself.  It also led to the ugly murder of a large number of Armenians by an Azeri mob in the town of Sumgait in Azerbaijan.

As the protests in Azerbaijan became increasingly violent they triggered a mass exodus of Azerbaijan’s previously large Armenian population to Armenia and Russia.  Most of the small Azeri population of Nagorno Karabakh in turn fled to Azerbaijan. The protests eventually led to fighting and outright war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan eventually lost. Nagorno Karabakh has been under Armenian control ever since, though it is not formally incorporated in Armenia and Azerbaijan continues to claim it. Though the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is now a largely forgotten part of the story of the USSR’s collapse, I will here state my own personal view, which is that Gorbachev’s failure to end it by reasserting Moscow’s control was a major cause for the collapse of his authority in Moscow.

The conflict has festered ever since with attempts by the Russians and other parties to broker a solution getting nowhere and with Azerbaijan investing much of its oil wealth in an arms build-up that has the Armenians understandably worried and which they see as intended to put Azerbaijan in a position where it can reverse the outcome of the war. In the meantime relations between Russia and Armenia have grown steadily closer, with Armenia joining the Eurasian Union and positioning itself as Russia’s key ally in the Caucasus. This builds on a very long history of intense cultural interaction and friendship between the Russian and Armenian peoples, with each traditionally harbouring strongly positive feelings towards the other.

Armenia is now also the host of an important Russian air base, which the Russians have recently reinforced with MiG29 fighters. Azerbaijan for its part has been careful not to break its ties with Moscow completely. Though the Azeris have on occasion tilted towards the US, and have flirted with the various gas and oil pipeline schemes intended to reduce Europe’s energy dependence on Russia (the subject of the James Bond film The World Is Not Enough), they have up to now shown a keen understanding of the local geopolitical realities, and realise that Russia is and will remain for the foreseeable future the dominant power in the Caucasus. The steady build-up of Russian naval power in the Caspian Sea, and the network of Russian air bases in Armenia and in the northern Caucasus, have effectively sealed Russia’s overwhelming military advantage.

It is this overwhelming Russian power that in the end makes it unlikely the present fighting will escalate into all-out war. With Armenia in firm alliance with Russia - which would come to Armenia’s aid in the event of an all-out war - Azerbaijan knows it would quickly lose such a war, and that is a powerful deterrent against Azerbaijan deciding to start one. As for Armenia, it has no claim on Azerbaijan and merely seeks to preserve the status quo in Nagorno Karabakh and elsewhere.  It therefore has no interest in starting a war. Since neither side (probably) wants a war why is fighting taking place now?

Reports suggest the latest bout of fighting was started by Azerbaijan. Most probably the Azeris want to remind the Russians that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict remains unresolved, though it is possible that the Azeri government - under severe domestic pressure because of the oil price fall - is using the fighting to strengthen its popularity in Azerbaijan. There is also always a possibility in this sort of conflict that the fighting is the work of local commanders acting on their own initiative.  The area is heavily mountainous, communications are poor and it is not impossible that the political leaderships have a less than complete control of the situation on the ground.

Lastly it is not impossible that Turkish meddling has played a part.  With Turkey now under severe pressure from Moscow it is not inconceivable that the Turks have used their influence in Azerbaijan to stir up trouble for Moscow in its Caucasian backyard.  It is important to say however that there is at present no evidence for this and any theorising to this effect remains for the moment pure speculation. Though it is unlikely the fighting will escalate further, the fighting nonetheless serves as a pointed reminder to the Russians that the situation in the Caucasus remains fragile and that peace there cannot be taken for granted.

Though Russia’s alliance with Armenia is not in doubt, it is in Russia’s interests to retain at least a dialogue with Baku. Russia does not want to lose Azerbaijan entirely, as it might do if matters were allowed to get so bad that Russia was obliged to come to Armenia’s rescue. The Kremlin’s diplomats in the Caucasus will be working hard to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Source: http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/fighting-nagorno-karabakh-headache-moscow/ri13720

Nagorno-Karabakh: Another “triumph” of US diplomacy

A tank of the self-defense army of Nagorno-Karabakh moves on the road in the village of Talish April 6, 2016

Last Thursday US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Azerbaijan’s dictator Ilham Aliyev in Washington and called for “an ultimate resolution” of the decades-old conflict in the disputed province of Nagorno-Karabakh. On Friday, as the hereditary Azeri despot was on the plane back to Baku, Azeri troops were already launching an offensive against the breakaway Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. One of the first casualties was a 12-year-old Armenian boy.

Naturally, the Azeris claim they were attacked first, but this seems unlikely. The front lines in the simmering conflict have been pretty stable since the conclusion of the post-Soviet war between Armenia and Azerbbaijan, which ended in victory for the former and de facto independence for the primarily Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Already in possession of the disputed territory, the Nagorno-Karabakhians had nothing to gain by restarting the fighting —  and it seems more than coincidental that fresh hostilities commenced immediately upon Kerry’s rather absurd pronouncement.

Absurd because the “crisis’ has already been resolved – today Nagorno-Karabakh is an independent state, in spite of the refusal of the United States to recognize it, and it has enjoyed this status since 1994, when the last Azeri troops were driven from the territory. That the Secretary of State would choose to intervene at this point seems, at best, highly suspicious. Did Kerry give the green light to the Azeris? I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. After all, the US has consistently stood with the Azeris no matter which party is in the Oval Office. Washington’s reasons are two-fold: geopolitics and money, not necessarily in that order.

The geopolitical factor involves the US policy of encircling Russia. Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, Washington has sought to extend its sphere of influence deep into the territory of the former USSR by courting the Oriential despots, like the Aliyev clan, who rule over these former communist “republics.” Which brings us to the second, albeit no less influential factor: money. The central Asian states like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, etc. are a rich source of Caspian Sea oil, where huge deposits have been discovered. The problem is how to transport the oil to European and US markets – without pumping it through Russian pipelines.

The solution: the BTC (Baku to Ceyhan, Turkey) pipeline. In 1994, Ilham Alivey’s father, Heydar, announced what he called “the Contract of the Century” in a speech to the Harriman Institute in New York City. His government had just signed an agreement with a consortium of oil companies and investment bankers, giving the biggest oil companies in the world – Amoco, Pennzoil, British Petroleum, Unocal, McDermott, Statoil, Lukoil, and the state-owned oil companies of Turkey and the Saudi Kingdom – exclusive rights to Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves. A few years later, Aliyev senior was at the White House with Vice President Al Gore presiding over a ceremony announcing a contract with Chevron, Exxon/Mobil and Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR).

The Clinton administration took up this project with alacrity: in the summer of 1998, Bill Clinton created the Office of the Special Advisor to the President and the Secretary of State for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy – a portentous title for what was one of the most brazenly mercantilist US government projects since the Export-Import Bank. Morningstar started off his career as a corporate lawyer and rose to become President and CEO of Costar Corporation, a maker of plastics and other oil-based byproducts. Clinton appointed him to head up the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, another crony capitalist slush fund, and he went on to become Undersecretary of State on Assistance to the New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union and US Ambassador to the European Union. His background as a crony-capitalist and committed internationalist certainly suited him for the Caspian Basin gig, during which time billions of taxpayer dollars were doled out to Big Oil and attendant contractors to fund the BTC pipeline. He was appointed US Ambassador to Azerbaijan by President Barack Obama, in 2012, stepping down in 2015 for a job at Madeleine Albright’s Stonebridge-Albright Group.

Morningstar’s career outlines the corporate and political interests that have been manipulating governments and juggling the fate of nations along the so-called Great Silk Road – the southern Caucasus region that promises great riches to whoever can control it. Long a crossroads of conquering armies, it is today the scene of simmering ethnic and religious conflicts that threaten the best laid plans of the most powerful men on earth – the national aspirations of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh being only one of them.

The original – and cheapest – route for the BTC pipeline went through Armenia, but this was vetoed by Aliyev, and so a more circuitous (and expensive) route was charted: Aliyev gloated that Yerevan would be “isolated.” Yet the pipeline snakes just a few miles from Nagorno-Karabakh, and it isn’t hard to see that this fresh outbreak of violence might endanger operations – and the US government’s hefty investment. It’s not hard to imagine the renewed conflict triggering that old standby of the interventionists: “American interests” (i.e. the financial interests of major corporate donors to the war chests of political candidates) are “threatened”!

Washington has consistently sided with the Azeris in their claim to Nagorno-Karabakh. As I wrote in 1999:

“The US State Department’s tilt toward Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue was expressed, albeit rather obliquely, in a recent statement: "Armenia’s observance of international law and obligations and OSCE commitments in this respect has been marred by the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Karabakh Armenians, supported by the Republic of Armenia, now hold about one fifth of Azerbaijan and have refused to withdraw from occupied territories until an agreement on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is reached." But Azerbaijan is a Soviet fiction, created by Stalin who fixed its border to keep the Armenians down and the Azeris fully occupied. But the idea that the borders of the phony Soviet "republics" are permanent, and represent anything even approximating justice, is absurd. Yet this is the position the US government has taken in the past, and continues to take.”

The US position has been consistent to this day, with the State Department demanding the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh and the deployment of Western-backed “peacekeepers” to make sure the Armenians don’t get out of hand with impudent demands for self-determination. The referendum held in 1991 – in which the locals voted for secession from Azerbaijan —  is contemptuously disdained by US officials, just as the Crimean referendum in which voters overwhelmingly chose secession from Ukraine is denounced as “illegitimate.”

Indeed, the Crimean analogy fits Nagorno-Karabakh to a tee. As in Ukraine, which Soviet despot Nikita Khrushchev rewarded with Crimea in 1954, so in the Caucasus, where Joseph Stalin – before his rise to absolute power – handed Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbajian, with Lenin’s approval. As the Soviets marched into Central Asia, subjugating Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Communists decided that it would be better to placate Kemal Ataturk’s regime in Turkey than to allow the Nagorno-Karabakhians the right to set up their own autonomous “republic.” The Stalinist policy of divide and conquer – splitting up the Armenian-populated areas so as to tamp down “anti-Soviet” nationalist sentiment – persisted until Communist rule imploded.

In Ukraine, the US government insists on the legitimacy of Khrushchev’s decision to sever Crimea from Russia and make a gift of it to Ukraine: in Nagorno-Karabakh, they uphold the legacy of Stalin and Lenin, who sought to keep the Armenians in line by making them live under Azeri rule.

Like Lenin and the Bolsheviks, part of Washington’s reason for this latter stance is to placate Turkey, which unequivocally takes the side of their “Turkic” allies, the Azeris. The current conflict is just another dimension of the unfolding Russo-Turkish conflict, which started in Syria and is now being extended into Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia, for its part, is aligned with Russia). The ultra- nationalistic Turks, whose ideology of “Pan-Turkism” foresees Turkey as a rising superpower expanding its influence all the way across Central Asia until it reaches the border of China (!), are involved in this up to their eyeballs. And remember: Turkey is a NATO member. In any conflict between Turkey and Russia, the US is obligated by treaty to come to their defense. Now there’s yet another reason why Donald Trump is right about NATO being “obsolete.”

What did Kerry say to Aliyev Junior that precipitated this crisis? We’ll never know for sure, but of one thing we can be certain: Washington’s meddling in this mess can only result in disaster. Will the April Fool’s War, otherwise known as Kerry’s Provocation, go down in history as yet another blundering intervention by the Americans in a troubled region where they have no business interfering? I’d bet the ranch on it.

Source: http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2016/04/03/nagorno-karabakh-april-fools-war/#.VwJGcpkwO1M.email

“This situation was created to spoil the relations of Russia with Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

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According to the Russian State Duma Deputy, Yaroslav Nilov, Turkey using the Karabakh conflict is trying to provoke Russia

“Whatever was implemented was provoked by Turkey. Turkey laughs at us, Turkey laughs at you, it laughs at the Cypriots,” said the Russian State Duma deputy, also Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, Yaroslav Nilov, in an exclusive interview with “Aravot”. He thinks that the war waged by Azerbaijan on the Karabakh-Azerbaijani border in the last days is provoked by Turkey to subjugate Russia to provocation.

Our interlocutor reminded that Russia is Armenia’s strategic partner but since the very first day of the tension of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia’s statements from official circles were very neutral towards both sides: Yerevan (and not let’s say, Stepanakert) and Baku. We asked what to expect from our strategic partner. “The issue is very delicate and not so easily resolved. Do you understand that this is done to provoke Russia? Therefore, Russia runs a very careful, thoughtful and balanced policy, at the same time taking into account the friendly relations with its neighbors, – says Mr. Nilov, adding, – “For us, it is important that there are no shootings causing people’s death and civilians to suffer. Therefore, everything possible is done by the political leadership – the Foreign Ministry and other agencies – to resolve the problem and blow down the tension.”

Russian State Duma deputy pointed out that the Russian leadership visits both countries: Yerevan and Baku, in the framework of the NK peace process, trying to find reconciliation and not giving in to the provocations, “Because this situation was created to spoil Russia’s relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan,” – again reiterates our interlocutor, reminding that when last year, on April 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin had arrived in Armenia for the centenary of the Genocide, Turkish President Erdoğan did not like it. According to our interlocutor, Turkey is using the Karabakh problem in this region for solving its political problems.

Russian MP notes that the negotiation process aimed at the solution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict does not have great success, and as to what it necessary to change the format, he finds it difficult to answer, “Our party leader, Zhirinovsky, said that the problem can be solved if Armenia and Azerbaijan become a part of Russia. For the rest of the cases, the problem will be difficult to be resolved because each side will present its hypotheses and facts while our task is to stop the bloodshed in this issue,” says Yaroslav Nilov.

Source: http://en.aravot.am/2016/04/08/175479/

De Waal: Kremlin 'Not Primary Actor' Behind Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

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A noted Western expert on the Caucasus says tensions between Azerbaijanis and Armenians over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh make their dispute one of the most menacing unresolved conflicts from the time the Soviet Union was breaking up in the early 1990s. But Thomas de Waal, a senior associate with Carnegie Europe who specializes in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region, rejects the view that recent fighting has been orchestrated by Moscow as part of a larger Kremlin strategy to hold sway in the region.

Formerly a journalist who covered Russia and the Caucasus region, de Waal is the author of one of the most authoritative books on Nagorno-Karabakh, Black Garden: Armenia And Azerbaijan Through Peace And War. De Waal tells RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service that he rejects the conclusion of Western experts who view Moscow as a primary actor behind the recent outbreak of fighting in the disputed region. Nagorno-Karabakh, populated mainly by ethnic Armenians, declared independence from Azerbaijan amid a 1988-94 war that claimed an estimated 30,000 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Diplomatic efforts to settle the conflict have brought little progress.

RFE/RL: What are your thoughts about the collapse of the cease-fire in Nagorno-Karabakh and the resurgence of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops?

De Waal: This is the kind of really bad incident that a lot of us have been fearing for some time. It looks like a really bad breakdown of the cease-fire. The problem is that the cease-fire line, the line of contact, is so militarized now. There's all this heavy weaponry on either side -- including aircraft and drones and helicopters being used. It is spring, which is also a traditional time when the cease-fire starts to get broken -- in the spring and in the summer. When the cease-fire gets violated, it's usually on political grounds. It's not by accident that there is a strong political chain of command going up from the commanders all the way up to the top.

RFE/RL: There is a tendency for some in the West to see Russia as an instigator trying to manufacture a situation where it can intervene and deploy Russian peacekeepers on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you think it is part of a game being played or orchestrated by Moscow?

De Waal: Personally, I think it is a mistake to think that Moscow is the primary actor. I think Armenia and Azerbaijan are the primary actors in this conflict. And Moscow is a strong secondary actor, but it is not manipulating everything. It is not running the show. The person who is the most senior diplomat involved in the conflict is [Russian Foreign Minister] Sergei Lavrov. He knows the conflict incredibly well, meets the presidents regularly, and has a new peace plan, we are told, which he has been pushing and seems to involve some Russian peacekeeping element. But the Russian military is a little bit in Armenia and in Daghestan -- but it's not in Azerbaijan. So there's not a lot that the Russian Defense Ministry can do. They can certainly have some influence on the Armenian side but not particularly on the Azerbaijani side. We're talking about Lavrov and, perhaps, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin getting on the phone.

RFE/RL: How would you respond to those who see the hand of Russia behind the collapse of the cease-fire, particularly at a time when the president of Azerbaijan was in Washington to attend the nuclear summit that Russia skipped?

De Waal: I'm skeptical that Russia can organize violence on the cease-fire line [in Nagorno-Karabakh.] Obviously, it looks a bit curious that the president is in Washington and, suddenly, fighting breaks out on the ground -- and then the Kremlin calls for peace. But I think we should be a little cautious about that because both the Armenian and Azerbaijani militaries are very strongly independent. They don't like to be pushed around by Moscow. Traditionally, the side that breaks the cease-fire more is the Azerbaijani side because they don't like the status quo of their land occupied. So they have more reason to break the cease-fire. But once things get going, once the fighting gets started, then that becomes a bit irrelevant because both sides exchange fire and do operations across the front line. So it's incredibly hard to say who started it. And at some point, that becomes irrelevant.

RFE/RL: The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has meetings in Vienna on April 4 and 5 to address the cease-fire collapse in Nagorno-Karabakh. Is that something that can make a difference? Or how else can the international community make a difference diplomatically?

De Waal: The OSCE Minsk Group is no longer so powerful as it was. Basically, they work at the pleasure of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. They try to manage the cease-fire. They try to organize things between the presidents [of Armenia and Azerbaijan]. But they are certainly not running the show. The people who can make a difference [in diplomacy] are basically in Washington and in Moscow, in particular. But even there, I think it's actually very hard once a military operation is there on the ground for any third party to stop things on the ground. There are only six OSCE monitors in the region. There are no peacekeepers. The only thing is to do political pressure, which is obviously easier from Moscow. But even there, Nagorno-Karabakh is the No. 1 national issue both for Armenia and Azerbaijan. They don't always listen to Moscow if they think it doesn't suit their national interest.

RFE/RL: Who has the most to gain from the collapse of the cease-fire and what does that tell us about what needs to be done to stop the fighting?

De Waal: I think the Azerbaijani side is quite negative about practicing the cease-fire without any political process because they see that it basically normalizes the status quo in which Azerbaijani lands are occupied. What this proves is that there is a need for a bigger political intervention to try to restart the political process. But to do that, you need the cooperation of Moscow and Washington. You need them to agree on who the peacekeepers will be. And it is much harder for Washington and Moscow to agree on these kind of things now than it was a few years ago.

Analyst: No interest for Russia in all-out war in Karabakh, Russia preparing for another war

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A full-blown war in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not in the interest of Russia, which is preparing for another war, according to a Yerevan-based political analyst. Sergey Shakaryants believes that Russia as well as another major regional player, Iran, are now more preoccupied with preparations for a likely war with Turkey.

“If Iran is amassing a large number of troops at the border with Turkey, if Russia from year to year beefs up its military bases in Armenia, Abkhazia and elsewhere in the region, it is not being done for a re-conquest of the South Caucasus and reestablishment of its empire, but is being done for a war in Turkey’s territory,” the analyst contended.

Shakaryants did not elaborate on how exactly Russia or Iran could war against NATO member Turkey, only mentioning the Kurdish factor inside Turkey and stressing that they should be ready for “all sorts of complicated developments”. Relations between Russia and Turkey dramatically worsened last year amid Moscow’s military operations in Syria apparently annoying Ankara. It followed the downing of a Russian warplane near the Turkish-Syrian border by Turkey’s air force.

When four-day hostilities were raging in Nagorno-Karabakh earlier this month killing scores on both sides a lot of inside and outside observers pointed an accusatory finger at Turkey, a key ally of Azerbaijan, suspecting that this way it tried to engage in a proxy war with Russia that would be, in this case, represented by the latter’s political and military ally in the region, Armenia. Some, however, also saw Moscow’s hand, or at least its “green light”, behind Azerbaijan’s aggression, considering that Russia supplies modern weaponry to both sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh ground to a halt on April 5 after Russia’s mediation effort as senior military officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan verbally agreed on a ceasefire at a meeting in Moscow. Despite sporadic gunfire and skirmishes at the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and the restive Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the ceasefire largely holds today. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated on Thursday that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh should be resolved through peaceful negotiations, by way of compromises.

“That’s a very sensitive issue, and it seems to me that we have to treat it very carefully, being guided by the well-known principle of medics – do no harm,” Putin said, adding that Russia will continue to work within international bodies and engage with Armenia and Azerbaijan bilaterally to promote a solution to the problem.


Russia slams Turkey’s position on Karabakh clashes

Russia slams Turkey’s position on Karabakh clashes

Russia on Friday denounced Turkey’s position on the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorny Karabakh region after a Russian-mediated ceasefire ended the worst clashes in decades in the breakaway enclave. “Statements made by Turkish leaders are totally unacceptable for one simple reason - they are calling not for peace but for war,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference in the Armenian capital of Yerevan. Turkey pledged its full support to its traditional ally Azerbaijan after the latest deadly clashes erupted in Karabakh between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces on April 2. “Unfortunately, we have already got accustomed to such quirks from the current Turkish leadership,” Lavrov added.

In a war in the 1990s that claimed some 30,000 lives, separatists backed by Yerevan seized control of the mountainous region inside Azerbaijan that is home to a majority of ethnic Armenians. More than 100 people have been killed on both sides in fierce clashes that ended with a Russian-mediated ceasefire on April 6. The outbreak sparked fears of a wider conflict that could drag in regional powers Russia and Turkey, which have been at loggerheads since Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in Syria in November. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that “Karabakh will one day return to its original owner” while his prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, vowed to stand by Baku “until the apocalypse.”

Moscow has sold arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan but has far closer ties to Yerevan, where it has a military base. Azerbaijan and Armenia have never signed a peace deal despite a 1994 ceasefire and sporadic violence on the line of contact regularly claims the lives of soldiers on both sides. Energy-rich Azerbaijan, whose military spending exceeds Armenia’s entire state budget, has repeatedly threatened to take back the breakaway region by force.
 

CSTO Secretary General: Armenia has not used its potential to the full

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Armenia did  not apply to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for help during the escalation of the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh, CSTO Secretary General Nikolay Bordyuzha told reporters today, RIA Novosti reports.  Bordyuzha added that he understood from contacts with the Armenian leadership that “Armenia had not used its potential to the full,” therefore, no requests followed.  Asked whether the CSTO would come to help only in case of assault against the internationally recognized borders of Armenia, the CSTO Secretary General gave a positive answer.  At the same time he noted that the situation in Nagorno Karabakh is of great importance for ensuring security in the area of CSTO responsibility.  “In case of recurrence of hostilities, we’ll witness an active and direct armed confrontation that will “explode” the whole Caucasus. Many countries will get involved in the conflict, and it will affect many peoples in the Caucasus. It’s very serious and ensuring peace in Karabakh is a must today, otherwise a very large-scale war will burst in the Caucasus. I’d not like to see that,” Boryuzha declared.

Source: https://www.armradio.am/en/2016/04/26/armenia-has-not-used-its-potential-to-the-full-bordyuzha/

Why Russia's hopes for a peace deal in Nagorno-Karabakh may be fading

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Even with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov shuttling between Baku and Yerevan to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it appears that both sides – Armenia and Azerbaijan – are hardening their positions.

Back in 2013, Foreign Policy magazine’s editor-in-chief Susan Glasser called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “Minister Nyet,” likening him to Soviet statesman Andrei Gromyko, who was legendary for his firmness in conducting negotiations with the American side during the Cold War. Lavrov will need all of this firmness and resolve in attempting to bring a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. After the breakout of unprecedented armed hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Apr. 2, Russia’s “hard-drinking, hard-charging, relentless and smart negotiator” has been engaged in bringing about a durable ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. His goal has been to reconcile the positions of Yerevan, Baku and Stepanakert [the capital and the largest city of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic] to enable a breakthrough in stalled negotiations.

On Apr. 22 Lavrov had another face-to-face encounter with Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian in Yerevan, the second since the four-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The meeting shows that getting Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree on anything is going to be a nearly impossible challenge. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s initially hopeful statement about the availability of “all necessary elements” for a negotiated solution transformed into a request “to move forward in the political process even a little.” Armenia suggested that even this might not be possible, claiming that the Azerbaijani offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, which killed at least a hundred combatants on each side, has created new realities on the ground.

Russia – the default peacemaker in the Caucasus – is navigating between two very difficult positions in the mountains of Karabakh. Russia’s real negotiating power, as well as its perceived power to resolve the conflict by the local parties - has been weakened for many reasons. Back in 2013, Foreign Policy magazine’s editor-in-chief Susan Glasser called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “Minister Nyet,” likening him to Soviet statesman Andrei Gromyko, who was legendary for his firmness in conducting negotiations with the American side during the Cold War. Lavrov will need all of this firmness and resolve in attempting to bring a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

After the breakout of unprecedented armed hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Apr. 2, Russia’s “hard-drinking, hard-charging, relentless and smart negotiator” has been engaged in bringing about a durable ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. His goal has been to reconcile the positions of Yerevan, Baku and Stepanakert [the capital and the largest city of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic] to enable a breakthrough in stalled negotiations.

On Apr. 22 Lavrov had another face-to-face encounter with Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian in Yerevan, the second since the four-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The meeting shows that getting Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree on anything is going to be a nearly impossible challenge.

The Russian Foreign Ministry’s initially hopeful statement about the availability of “all necessary elements” for a negotiated solution transformed into a request “to move forward in the political process even a little.” Armenia suggested that even this might not be possible, claiming that the Azerbaijani offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, which killed at least a hundred combatants on each side, has created new realities on the ground. Russia – the default peacemaker in the Caucasus – is navigating between two very difficult positions in the mountains of Karabakh. Russia’s real negotiating power, as well as its perceived power to resolve the conflict by the local parties - has been weakened for many reasons.

All this, in Lavrov’s words, had been part of a negotiating deal on the table “three or four years ago.” It remained on paper because of the maximalist position of Baku. To make things even more difficult, Azerbaijan has allegedly revoked its signature from the 1994 ceasefire agreement in a written communication to the UN Security Council on Apr. 14. This, according to the worldview in Baku, relieves it from obligations of the non-use of force – something that has nothing to do with principles of international law.

How are sustainable peace and negotiations even possible in a crisis where one of the parties drives the situation to the brink of war and outside players have extremely limited leverage? This is the challenge facing the diplomats across the line of contact, as well as in Washington, Moscow and Paris. For now, hawks and other irrational players are running the show – and that’s what makes the situation so dangerous.

Source: http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/why-russias-hopes-peace-deal-nagorno-karabakh-may-be-fading

 Face Off: The Coming War between Armenia and Azerbaijan

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Another day, another deadly battle [4] between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the southern Caucasus mountains. This time at least three people were killed. There is a lot of attention-grabbing, armed conflict in the world these days. Diplomacy is barely keeping the lid on [5] a conventional war in Ukraine; from Nigeria to the Fertile Crescent war is about as common as peace. But to make accurate predictions about tomorrow’s conflicts, we need to look away from the preoccupations of the moment and turn our attention to the places that trouble is festering unnoticed.

To that end, let me introduce readers to my choice for 2015’s sleeper hotspot: Nagorno-Karabakh [6]. This obscure enclave in the Southern Caucasus is heating up, and the possibility of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is increasing. Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous region of western Azerbaijan. In the early 1990s, ethnic tensions between Christian Armenians and Muslim Azeris in the area resulted in a war that in many ways resembled the simultaneous and better-known wars in former Yugoslavia.

Hundreds of thousands were displaced, but the Armenians were eventually victorious. Nagorno-Karabakh has been de-facto independent since the end of the war between the then-newly independent nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The mostly Armenian population of the disputed region now lives under the control of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, a micronation that is supported by Armenia and is effectively part of that country. Despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire, the war never officially ended, and Azerbaijan still vigorously disputes the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, to put it mildly.

First, there is virtually no room for compromise between the two sides: Azerbaijan refuses to settle [8] for anything less than full control of the entire area, while Armenia will not countenance [9] anything more than a purely symbolic restoration of Azeri sovereignty. It is difficult to imagine Azerbaijan surrendering its claim to almost one-fifth of Azerbaijan’s official territory for any reason.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev continues to assert Azerbaijan’s claim [10] with increasing forcefulness. Armenia is also unlikely to relinquish any land, because Nagorno-Karabakh effectively increases the size of Armenian territory by one-third, which is very valuable for a small, thin and landlocked nation with little strategic depth and historic enemies on almost all sides. The Karabakh conflict is a zero-sum game.

Secondly, the dispute is only growing more militarized and dangerous. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have professionalized and rearmed their forces significantly since the first war.  The Azerbaijani Army and the Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army face each other along over a hundred kilometers [11] of a fortified, land-mined and impassable border. Elaborate trenches, bunkers, revetments [12] and artillery positions abound on both sides of the disputed line of demarcation and the forward positions of the two sides are often less than one hundred meters apart.

Since the ceasefire, hundreds have died in frequent raids and exchanges of fire across the lines that always contain the possibility for escalation. Raids and skirmishes are increasing in frequency and intensity. Since the summer of 2014, these limited but dangerous clashes have taken place almost daily, although they only attract international attention when someone is killed. Azeri forces shot down an Armenian Mi-24 helicopter in November [13] and there was fighting on the ground as the Armenians attempted to recover bodies from no-mans land. Most recently, on January 31 of this year, the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army “launched a preemptive attack [14]” on several Azeri positions and killed a number of Azeri soldiers.

Both countries have strong incentives for taking military action in the next few years. Azerbaijan’s leaders know the military power balance is shifting in their favor. Since the mid-2000s, Azerbaijan’s military has spent tens of billions of dollars on a large arms buildup. The Azeri Land Forces took delivery of $1 billion worth [15] of armored vehicles and artillery from Russia in 2013 and 2014 alone, and that pace of acquisitions shows no signs of slowing [16], even with the current decline in oil prices.

Azerbaijan’s arms purchases are clearly designed to increase the ability of the Azeri Land Forces to wage a campaign to reclaim Karabakh. They are focused on acquiring modern mobile artillery and rocket systems that would be necessary to pound Armenian infantry out of rugged, fortified terrain and escape counter-battery fire from Armenian artillery. Azerbaijan recently acquired two batteries of fearsome Tos-1A Buratino thermobaric heavy rocket artillery systems from Russia. If deployed en masse, these systems would be ideal for opening a general offensive by blasting a gap in Armenia’s frontline trenches on the largely flat Agadam plain that forms the geographic center of the disputed border.

Israel has been one of Azerbaijan’s strongest defense partners [17] for several years now, and as a result of this quiet relationship, the Azeri Air Force now fields an impressive array of Israeli drones. Azerbaijan’s Israeli drone fleet is invaluable for hunting Armenian artillery. With no hydrocarbon resources, Armenia cannot afford to match this level of military spending, so the leaders of Armenia and the Karabakh pseudo-state may foresee a grim military balance in the future and choose to face a conflict on more favorable terms sooner rather than later. Though it has not met the Azeri buildup drone for drone and tank for tank, the Armenian military is also spending as if it predicts a war.

Most notably, Armenia and Russia have meticulously maintained an air of ambiguity about whether [18] or not [19] Armenia has actually obtained state-of-the-art 9K720 [20] Iskander short-range conventional ballistic missiles from Russia. Iskanders could provide a way for Armenia, which has a very small air force, to hit the superior Azeri Air Force on the ground in Azerbaijan. Since 2012, Armenia has also invested heavily in Russian-supplied upgrades for its large numbers of existing armor and artillery and in domestically-produced drone systems [21]. In general, the alliance with Russia [22] is Armenia’s biggest strategic crutch.

Armenia may be at a slight disadvantage in equipment but more than makes up for that by holding strategic and very defensible terrain. Armenian forces already control all of Karabakh’s main roads, population centers and the sources of water and electricity. To reach them, Azeri forces would have to cross steep, rugged mountains that are heavily fortified by well-equipped local Armenian forces. To the north, the Armenian zone of Karabakh is accessible only via the treacherous Omar Pass over the Murovdag mountain range. Azeri forces entering Karabakh from the east would have to pass through a hole in the mountains that is only about 1.5 miles wide at the town of Askeran in order to reach Karabakh’s main city of Stepankert. Getting past these geographic barriers will not be easy. Karabakh’s water and electricity originate from the hydroelectric dam at the Sarsang Reservoir [23], and the main road to Armenia proper passes through the Lachin corridor, both of which are even farther and more inaccessible for any hypothetical Azeri operation in Karabakh.

The military balance and geographic factors thus dictate that Baku is in the driver’s seat with regard to changes in the status quo. Armenia already controls the territory it wants, and its military options are constrained to the defensive. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev is putting out a steady stream [24] of aggressive rhetoric [25], insulting Armenia and promising that his country will recapture Nagorno-Karabakh [26]. Even without a definite choice to start a war, both sides could escalate one of the frequent border skirmishes, either by choice or because the feel compelled. This could easily be the start of a general conflict, because both Armenia and Azerbaijan have incentives to go to war and they are already on a hair trigger. The frontline in Karabakh is only becoming more dangerous. Readers should watch it carefully.

Source: http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/face-the-coming-war-between-armenia-azerbaijan-12585

Financial Times: Russia senses opportunity in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

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As one of Europe’s most intractable conflicts teeters on the brink of war, Russia has gone into diplomatic overdrive. Fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh left more than 100 dead earlier this month and plunged a two-decade-old multinational peace process into crisis. In response, Russian president Vladimir Putin sprang into action, brokering a ceasefire at talks in Moscow and dispatching some of his most senior lieutenants to the region. Analysts and diplomats say Moscow’s move to act as peace broker could allow it to increase its already substantial influence in an energy-rich region that is a key focus of EU plans to diversify gas supplies from Russia.
“Strategically, when the US has been so silent, Putin has filled a vacuum that leaves the impression in Baku and Yerevan that they are alone, that he’s the only game in town,” says Matthew Bryza, a former US ambassador to Azerbaijan.
Nagorno-Karabakh — a mountainous region roughly the size of Luxembourg — lies within the borders of Azerbaijan but is populated by ethnic Armenians. The conflict began in the dying days of the Soviet Union, and expanded into a bloody war that left more than 20,000 dead and 1m displaced. The region has run its own affairs with support from Armenia since a ceasefire in 1994. When the worst fighting since that ceasefire broke out on the night of Friday April 1, Russia’s foreign and defence ministers were making calls to their Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts within hours. A few days later it was in Moscow that a truce was hammered out — at a trilateral meeting between the Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani army chiefs. Days later, the Russian foreign minister and prime minister were in Baku and Yerevan. Moscow’s energetic diplomacy overshadowed the work of the OSCE Minsk Group — a multilateral body, co-chaired by the US, France and Russia, that since 1994 has been working to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The group did not meet until Tuesday April 5 — by which time Moscow had already brokered a ceasefire agreement. “It took me by great surprise that it took the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs a considerable length of time to convene,” says Tahir Taghizadeh, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to London.
When the US has been so silent, Putin has filled a vacuum that leaves the impression in Baku and Yerevan that they are alone, that he’s the only game in town - Matthew Bryza, former US ambassador to Azerbaijan
Armenia’s foreign ministry, in a written response to questions from the FT, said: “We are grateful for Russian efforts so far and we are hopeful that they will continue until a final resolution is reached.” Mr Taghizadeh criticises the west’s lack of engagement: “The whole situation with the ceasefire regime not holding any more [ … ] is a direct consequence of the inability or unwillingness of the international community to act on this conflict.” Indeed, US diplomats privately concede that there is little appetite in Washington to launch a new diplomatic push on Nagorno-Karabakh in the waning days of the Obama administration, according to people briefed on their thinking. One western diplomat ruefully recounts requesting satellite images of the Nagorno-Karabakh front lines when the fighting broke out, only to be told that all of the satellites in the region were pointing to Ukraine and Syria. Still, Nagorno-Karabakh, located at the seam of Europe, Russia, Iran and Turkey, has the potential to destabilise the entire Caucasus region, say analysts. The EU has tried to forge closer ties with former Soviet states in the region, which is also strategically vital to the bloc as an energy supplier. The main oil pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey at one point runs less than 30 miles from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Reconstructing the events of the four-day war is a challenge: there was little or no independent reporting from the front lines during the fighting, and the conflict is the focus of heavy propaganda domestically and internationally for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Each side accuses the other of starting the fighting. But as Thomas de Waal, an expert on the Caucasus at Carnegie Europe, says, exchanges of fire across the line of contact have become commonplace: “It’s not really the question who fired the first shot, the question is who escalated and why.” The escalation appears to have been driven by Azerbaijan, which advanced beyond the line of contact to seize new land in the form of a few “strategic heights” — an escalation unprecedented since the 1994 ceasefire. Mr Taghizadeh confirms as much. Using a metaphor of a homeowner defending his house from squatters, he argues that “you will have to take up the shotgun at some point”. The result is an increasingly dangerous simmering conflict. “If this isn’t a wake-up call what is,” Mr de Waal says. “This could happen again any time.”

Russia has looked to strengthen economic and political ties with both countries in the wake of the flare-up. In Yerevan last week, Gazprom agreed to extend a gas supply contract with Armenia and cut already low gas prices. In Baku, Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, discussed a proposed railway line from Russia to Iran via Azerbaijan. Moscow even appeared to briefly put aside its dispute with Turkey to push for de-escalation: the OSCE Minsk Group, which consists of nine permanent members including both Russia and Turkey, condemned the violence — marking the first time a statement has been issued by the entire group, and not just the co-chairs. Nonetheless, Russia is not a wholly stabilising influence. Moscow will continue to sell arms to both sides — it is overwhelmingly the largest supplier to both the Azerbaijani and Armenian militaries — deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin said this week. And people who have worked on the settlement process say that neither side would have faith in a lasting peace brokered by Moscow alone. As Mr Bryza, who served as US ambassador to the Minsk Group for three years, says: “The key to resolving this is to get the two presidents to have sufficient trust in each other, and Russia is not going to be able to do that.”


Stratfor: Armenia's Isolation Laid Bare

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The tension in Yerevan was palpable. Overnight April 1, just a few days before I arrived in the city, fighting had broken out in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, home to a quasi-independent statelet backed by Armenia known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The line of contact where Karabakh fighters clashed with Azerbaijani soldiers was around 300 kilometers (186 miles) away, but in Yerevan it felt much closer. I found myself in the city amid the breakdown of a cease-fire that had largely held since 1994.

Walking the streets, I caught snatches of nervous conversation – again and again I heard people mention "Azerbaijan" and "Artsakh," the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh. The emotional attachment on the part of the capital city's residents to the small breakaway republic was clearly strong. Large groups of men huddled around taxis and on street corners to listen intently to news of the conflict being played on the radio. Taxi drivers could speak of nothing else. Everyone seemed to have at least one relative or friend living in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The fighting proved to be short-lived, and within three days a cease-fire was back in place. Just like that, the conflict gave way to the uneasy peace that has predominated for over two decades. Or had it? The question still remained: Why did the conflict break out in the first place? It may have been just another historical blip, or it could presage a larger conflict to come, perhaps one involving regional heavyweights Turkey and Russia, or even Western powers. And what was the role of those powers in the current fighting?

I discussed these questions with anyone I could — government officials, political analysts, journalists and ordinary people. Their opinions varied in the details, but they generally agreed on three things. Most of them blamed Azerbaijan for initiating the fighting because the status quo is favorable to Armenia but detrimental to Baku's interests. Many also believed (correctly) at the outset of the conflict that the fighting was unlikely to spark a larger war. They noted, with anxiety, that Armenia stands alone in Nagorno-Karabakh, with no one to turn to for help.
These are all, of course, simply opinions. Moreover, they are informed by fear and national bias. But they do provide some insight into the mindset of the Armenian people. The last of them, Armenia's isolation, is particularly noteworthy because it has grounding in Armenia's current geopolitical position. The nation is located in the unstable Caucasus region, along with Georgia, Azerbaijan and the volatile Russian republics of Chechnya and Dagestan. The region is surrounded by Russia, Turkey and Iran – three massive powers with diverging interests. Tiny Armenia clearly occupies a tough position and, because of it, must navigate a complex web of relationships. Yerevan is hostile toward Azerbaijan because of Nagorno-Karabakh, and it also has a tense relationship and closed border with Turkey, which supports Azerbaijan. Georgia also cooperates closely with Azerbaijan and Turkey on energy and security matters. Iran is not a major geopolitical player in the Caucasus, at least for now.

To survive in such a volatile environment, Armenia has chosen to strategically align itself with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union, joining both the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Armenia hosts nearly 5,000 Russian troops in the 102nd military base in Gyumri, and Russia is responsible for guarding Armenia's border with Turkey. Russia owns much of Armenia's strategic infrastructure, including energy pipelines and telecommunications firms, and the country's economy is closely tied to that of Russia.

But this loyalty is not always reciprocal. Whereas friendship with Russia is a top priority for Armenia, the relationship is not the only interest for Moscow, and Russia needs to weigh it against other strategic considerations. Its response to the recent outbreak of conflict demonstrated this. Rather than backing Armenia militarily or politically in the hostilities, Russian officials instead called for calm. Armenians were quick to point out that Russia is a major supplier of weapons to Azerbaijan, some of which were used by Baku in the recent escalation. Moscow has taken an evenhanded political approach with Yerevan and Baku, and Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev visited both capitals in succession on April 7 and April 8.

Russia's balanced response may seem odd given Armenia's loyalty and Azerbaijan's often confrontational attitude toward Moscow. Baku's strategic partnership with Ankara makes it seem even stranger. Most Armenians I spoke to, however, put forward theories about Russia's response (or lack thereof). Some thought Moscow wanted hostilities to escalate in Nagorno-Karabakh so that it could intervene later and extend its influence over both Armenia and Azerbaijan. They believed Russia's military presence in Armenia was less a security guarantee in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh than a check on the power of Turkey and the West. Others saw Russia in a more positive light but admitted that Moscow's larger struggles with Turkey over Syria and with the West over Ukraine manifest in the Caucasus and exacerbate conflicts, sometimes to the detriment of Armenia.

The latest conflict is just another reminder of Armenia's unenviable geopolitical position. Its valuable alliance with Russia has not helped in the last few days amid a flare-up in greatest threat to Armenian security. But Yerevan has no one else to turn to: Turkey is allied with Azerbaijan, and the West is not willing to risk a confrontation with Russia, as shown by its inaction in Georgia. Armenia's commercial and political ties with Iran might later prove valuable, but at the moment Tehran is in no position to play a meaningful role in the Caucasus or to challenge Russia in any capacity. Someday, though, that could change.

For now, Armenia must to a great extent fend for itself in Nagorno-Karabakh. Unless the simmering tension boils over into a full-blown conflict on par with the war of 1988-1994, the attitudes of Russia and other regional players will likely remain the same. The next steps are unclear, but the truce is shaky at best, meaning violence may flare up in the region. When it does, Yerevan will find itself unsettled and anxious once again, with little help from its allies.


Stratfor: Armenia's Fair-Weather Allies

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As fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region tapers off, the efficacy of various alliance structures in the former Soviet territories is coming under scrutiny. When the conflict began five days ago, Armenian leaders turned to the country's largest backer, Russia, and to its primary military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Since then, the media throughout the Caucasus have been abuzz with questions over whether the CSTO and Russia would intervene to support Armenia in the conflict. But so far, neither has even considered it.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the CSTO military bloc emerged to facilitate security cooperation among its members. Then, in the mid-2000s, Moscow used the bloc to expand its influence among member states and promoted the CSTO as an alternative to NATO. Though membership has shifted over the decades, the organization currently includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In some areas, such as conducting joint military training and exercises and interlinking air defense systems, the CSTO has been effective in its aims. Additionally, in 2009 the CSTO created a Rapid Reaction Force, which was considered a demonstration of the alliance's commitment to its members' collective defense.

Like NATO's Article 5, two articles in the CSTO agreement describe the bloc's collective defense policies. According to the articles, an attack on one member equates to an attack on all. But despite numerous opportunities to enforce the policies — for example, in regional conflicts between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, or Armenia and Azerbaijan — the CSTO has never used collective military intervention. And in 2010, the CSTO amended the articles: The "collective defense" policy became a "cooperative defense arrangement," giving CSTO members more discretion in responding to regional conflicts.  

So when Armenia appealed to the CSTO for assistance in the latest clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh, its fellow member states were already distancing themselves from any involvement. On the first day of fighting, Belarus' Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling for peace under the United Nations Security Council resolutions. Because the council's resolutions recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as within Azerbaijani territory, Armenia took umbrage at the statement. Belarus further asserted that its current defense policy prohibits Belarusian soldiers from fighting outside its borders. In turn, Armenia criticized Belarus for renouncing its military and economic ally, citing the countries' ties through the CSTO as well as the Eurasian Economic Union. Kazakhstan responded much as Belarus did, reiterating the need for a peace settlement. Moreover, the Eurasian Economic Union summit has since been rescheduled and moved to Moscow after Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Massimov refused to travel to Armenia on Thursday for the event.

Although Armenia is a loyal ally to Russia as well as a CSTO member, it has little recourse in the matter. The CSTO isn't required to support the member country in the current conflict since Nagorno-Karabakh is technically outside its borders. And because the organization is certainly not an alliance of equals, Armenia has little weight to compel the bloc, or any of its members, to action. The alliance's largest member, Russia, could probably rally support for an Armenian intervention if it felt so inclined. But Moscow has gone out of its way not only to advocate for a cease-fire but also to keep an evenhanded approach to Yerevan and Baku.

In fact, Russia has become a force for calm in the dispute. On April 5, the announcement came that a tenuous cease-fire agreement in the conflict had been reached at a meeting in Moscow between Armenia's and Azerbaijan's military chiefs. In the coming days, Moscow will divide its diplomatic attention between the two countries: Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev is headed to Armenia on Thursday and Azerbaijan the day after. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in Baku today and will meet with his Armenian counterpart on Friday in Moscow.

For now, Russia sees maintaining its relationship with Azerbaijan as a greater priority than supporting its small ally, Armenia. Moscow knows Yerevan does not have any viable alternative relationships it can call on to aid its situation. Conversely, Azerbaijan could call on increased support from its own ally, Turkey. Keeping the peace will allow Russia to forestall Turkey's involvement in the matter. Furthermore, promoting peace in Nagorno-Karabakh provides good press for Russia among the Europeans and Americans — with whom Moscow has been in constant contact during the conflict.

All of this suggests that the CSTO may be a fair-weather alliance whose functions and membership, in the context of the current clashes, are at odds with Russia's interests. For Yerevan, this means its primary military alliance is above all an alliance of its partners' convenience.


International Business Times: Armenia-Russia Ties Under Question Amid Fighting

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At a recent thousand-strong demonstration in the capital of Armenia, Davit Sanasaryan took out a couple of eggs and threw them at the Russian Embassy. The gesture provoked both ridicule and approval in this small landlocked country that traditionally values very close ties with its large northern neighbor. “Our protests are not against Russia but against Russian policy and Putinism,” activist and politician Sanasaryan said in an interview with International Business Times last week. A similar rally took place Thursday as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov flew into Yerevan for a two-day visit. This time, protestors delivered a Molotov cocktail to embassy staff. 

Explicit anti-Kremlin protests are a new phenomenon in Armenia and come amid a wave of instability in the Southern Caucasus, which is flanked by Russia, Iran and Turkey. This month over 100 people were killed when the mountainous territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan, saw its most deadly outbreak of violence in 22 years.

The volatility appears to be part of a ripple effect from Syria’s persistent civil war and a new jostling between old regional foes Russia and Turkey. Moscow’s relationship with Ankara collapsed last year after a Turkish fighter shot down a Russian jet operating near the Syria-Turkey border in the Kremlin’s continuing military intervention in the Syrian civil war. 

“Armenia is clearly feeling nervous and somewhat unsure of Russia’s game plan … Some will be asking whether Armenia is Russia’s sacrificial lamb herein in the greater game being played out in the region and globally with the West,” Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at Japanese financial holding Nomura International in London, wrote in a note to investors last week.

Protestors in Yerevan, many of whom are inspired by popular uprisings in Ukraine and neighboring Georgia against pro-Russian regimes, are particularly angered by Russia’s role in the so-called Four-Day War that erupted at the beginning of April in Nagorno-Karabakh and saw the use of tanks, heavy artillery and drones by both sides. The conflict has largely been frozen since a ceasefire in 1994, but Nagorno-Karabakh remains a fiercely important territorial dispute among Armenians and Azeris.

There is disappointment among the protestors over a lack of reaction from Moscow to small advances by Azeri forces and anger over Russian sales of sophisticated weaponry to Baku, the capital and largest city of Azerbaijan. “Lots of people think that Russia is a military ally and a friend, but a military ally and friend cannot sell arms to our adversary,” activist Sanasaryan said. And there are allegations in Armenia that Moscow is deliberately making concessions to Azerbaijan to woo it away from Turkey, a natural partner given the countries’ shared ethnicity and common Islam faith, and draw it closer into Russia’s economic and political orbit. 

“Armenia is a toy, a mechanism for Russia to contain Turkic countries and regulate its relationship with them — the same as it has been for hundreds of years. Nothing has changed,” said Manvel Sargsyan, director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, a think tank founded by former foreign minister and now opposition politician Raffi Hovannisian. “Russia is on the verge of losing Armenia as an ally,” he added.

While public hostility toward Russia is generally confined to a small group of well-educated people in Yerevan and poses no immediate threat to the political establishment, it is another well of discontent that could strengthen domestic opposition to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who has been in charge of the 3-million-strong, largely Christian country since 2008. 

“Above all we have to demand something from our own government … I don’t accept Putin as my president, so why should I ask something of him?” said Maksim Sarkisyan, 28, an activist who played a key role in mass street demonstrations, known as Electric Yerevan, which engulfed the Armenian capital last summer after tariff rises precipitated by a Russian energy company. “It’s not important whether it is Russia or the European Union but just that our country has the chance to develop normally,” Sarkisyan said.

Russia has firmly rejected calls for it to stop selling weapons to Armenia and Azerbaijan, maintaining that its policy ensures a balance. And top Russian officials have accused third parties of provoking a war in order to promote their regional agendas.

“Events in Nagorno-Karabakh bear witness to another effort by forces hostile to Russia to shatter peace between the Armenian and Azeri peoples and create yet another hotbed of war,” the head of Russia’s powerful Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin said in an interview last week. Strident statements of support for Azerbaijan issued by Turkey during the fighting were fiercely condemned by Moscow, and Russian officials accused Ankara of warmongering.

But there are few signs Russia is about to turn its back on Armenia, which is one of only four former Soviet states to join the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union. Russia provides training for Armenian troops and has a large military base in Gyumri, the country’s second-largest city. The Kremlin played a key role in ending the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, with a ceasefire agreed by the Azeri and Armenian chiefs of general staff during a meeting in Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev have both visited Yerevan this month.

The pressing issue of its day-to-day security gives Yerevan little room for maneuver and appears to trump Armenia’s close economic and cultural links with Europe. Armenia’s number one trading partner is Germany not Russia and its Christian heritage and role in the Antique world gives the country a tradition of closer ties to Europe than the Slavic world.

Experts point out that Armenia has few other possible allies even if it were to seek to replace Russia. After a Russian-sponsored separatist rebellion in Ukraine when the country saw a pro-Europe uprising, it is unlikely the United States or the European Union would be able to offer any meaningful security guarantees to Armenia. Neighboring Iran has few ambitions in the South Caucasus and Yerevan has no diplomatic relations with Turkey because of the mass killings of Armenians in the then-Ottoman Empire in 1915 that Ankara refuses to recognize as genocide.

“If we don’t get weapons from Russia, where will we get them from? Fighting with sticks doesn’t work out too well,” said Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan. “Those kids with eggs on the street see it in 'either or' terms… Armenian could become a member of the EU, of NATO, of whatever the hell it wants but Russia will still be nearby and will still play an important role in the region,” he said.


 Guess Who's Funding Anti-Russian Protests in Armenia?


Armenian activist David Sanasaryan with Mikheil Saakashvili

April 28, 2016 "Information Clearing House" - "NEO"- Another day, another protest in Armenia. And if we were to simply believe the Western media regarding this ‘other protest,’ we might get the impression that the Armenian people are upset with Russian policy and “Putinism.” In reality, the protests are led by the same verified US-proxies exposed at the height of the “Electric Yerevan” protests mid-2015 which sought to undermine and overthrow the current government of Armenia in favor of a pro-Western political front more to Wall Street, London, and Brussels’ liking. The International Business Times in their article, “Armenia-Russia Ties Under Question Amid Fighting, Anti-Moscow Protests,” would report regarding the recent protests that:
At a recent thousand-strong demonstration in the capital of Armenia, Davit Sanasaryan took out a couple of eggs and threw them at the Russian Embassy. The gesture provoked both ridicule and approval in this small landlocked country that traditionally values very close ties with its large northern neighbor. “Our protests are not against Russia but against Russian policy and Putinism,” activist and politician Sanasaryan said in an interview with International Business Times last week.
Davit Sanasaryan (also spelled “David Sanasaryan”), among other things, is an opposition politician with the Heritage Party who helped lead the previous US-backed “Electric Yerevan protests in mid-2015. He is also an associate of the Armenian-based National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI), revealed in the NCI’s own news bulletin titled, “NCI Focuses on Armenia’s Mining Sector,” which reports (emphasis added):
NCI associate Davit Sanasarian welcomed the audience with opening remarks. “The exploitation of the Teghut mine is an actual matter and it calls for serious discussions and proper suggestions prior to the undertaking of this project,” he said.
This bulletin alone seems innocuous enough, however, another NCI bulletin would reveal itself to be coordinating with and receiving aid from the US National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The bulletin titled, “NCI Partakes in a Civil Society Meeting,” states (emphasis added):
The National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI) representatives attended, between 14 and 15 April 2011, the conference entitled “Assisting Armenia’s Civil Society Organizations.” This event was an initiative of the European Partnership for Democracy (EPD) organization and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Yerevan Office, and it was organized with the assistance of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The objective of the conference was to contribute in developing the capacity of Armenia’s civil society organizations by way of cooperation and exchange of know-how with Central and Eastern European civil society associations.
Of course, considering that the US NED is chaired by pro-war corporate-financier representatives, “developing the capacity of civil society organizations” in Armenia was not actually on the agenda. Instead, creating a proxy front with which to control Armenia on behalf of foreign interests was, merely couched behind “civil society.” Sanasarian’s “association” with the NCI in this context, is troubling to say the least.

But Sanasarian’s association with the US NED extends far beyond this. He is also on the board of trustees of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA), an alleged think-tank that is directly funded by the US NED. His position on the board of trustees is revealed in an AIISA bulletin titled, “AIISA’s Third Evening DemSchool: “Challenges to Democracy,”” which claims:
In partnership with the US National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the third 11-day evening DemSchool was launched at the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs with “Challenges to Democracy” heading.
It also stated:
Certificate award ceremony was held on the DemSchool 11th day. David Sanasaryan, member of AIISA Board of Trustees, young politician and activist, also participated in it.
Added to this, is Sanasarian’s role in the US-backed 2015 protests. It was revealed in mid-2015 that the so-called “Electric Yerevan” protests were in fact led entirely by US-funded and directed nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Sanasarian’s involvement then, again implicates him in coordinating with and receiving aid from a foreign government in a bid to undermine his own government. At the time, US State Department-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) would report in its article, “Armenians Say They’ll Restart ‘Electric Yerevan’ Protest,” that:
At a Yerevan rally attended by several hundred activists on July 17, Rise Armenia leader and opposition Heritage party city councilor Davit Sanasarian said a new campaign against the electricity price hikes would take place from July 27 to July 31, with demonstrators blocking the central streets of Yerevan and other cities around the country. “We continue our fight. We will be distributing leaflets from door to door,” Sanasarian said. “We will be successful.”
RFE/RL would inadvertently admit that the protesters were simply using electricity prices as a pretext to come out into the streets and that their next move would be of a more political nature, targeting Armenia’s sitting government. In other words, it was a US-funded color revolution couched behind legitimate concerns regarding utility prices. Considering these extensive ties to US-backing, Sanasarian’s role leading the current anti-Russian protests portrays him not as a ‘politician’ or an ‘activist,’ but as a foreign-funded proxy, and the protests themselves as foreign-engineered meddling, not legitimate dissent. Claims that he is fighting against Russian influence, while all along he is serving as a conduit for Wall Street, London, and Brusssels’ influence touches upon the sort of hypocrisy seen again and again amid engineered protests targeting the many enemies of Western hegemony worldwide.


Opinion: Moscow Intends to Deploy Peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabagh - 6 Facts

A Grad missile is fired by Azerbaijani forces in the village of Gapanli, Azerbaijan

The regional military and political events of the recent week raise a number of questions, the most important of which is related to Russia’s intentions. While some try to claim that the recent tensions could have been possible without Russia’s permission and that Baku had attacked Nagorno Karabagh upon its own initiative, the events of the last few years bear witness of a different trend.

In particular, the Russian-Azerbaijani military trade, the fact that till today Armenia has not received the loan amount of 200 million USD (the loan agreement was signed in the summer of 2015) intended for purchasing arms, Azerbaijan’s protest against the loan and the apologizing response of Russian Foreign Ministry’s official representative Maria Zakharova prompt Aliev that he will not run the risk of being scolded by the Russian big brother in case of provoking war. The diplomatic statements of the recent days also testify that Kremlin did not mind such developments. The following events show that Moscow has changed its approach not only in regard with arms sales, but diplomacy as well.  One of the indicators was the act of moving the meeting of the EAEU prime ministers from Yerevan to Moscow by using war as an excuse. In reality, this was a message to Baku implying that the EAEU does not stand by Armenia in this difficult situation. Another indicator was Medvedev’s decision to cut short his visit to Yerevan in order to be able to visit Baku as well.  Moreover, the Russian prime minister also visited the monument dedicated to the so-called martyrs in Baku and laid a wreath in memory of Azerbaijani soldiers who died in the battles against the Armenian forces.

Naturally, Russia’s main aim is the deployment of Russian peacekeeping troops in Nagorno Karabagh. There is no doubt that Nagorno Karabagh conflict is the main lever for Russia to keep its influence in the South Caucasus. Hence, the resolution of the conflict (in favor of any of the sides) is not in the interests of Russia. Whereas the deployment of Russian peacekeepers would solve the issue of submitting Armenia to Russia’s will whenever Armenia would dare not to obey Kremlin. The circumstances mentioned below serve as testimony of such intentions of Russia:  

1. The agreement on ceasing the fire was reached by Chiefs of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow on April 5. This means that the agreement is not a diplomatic but a military one because the issue was discussed by Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, not Foreign Ministers. Thus, a question arises… What did the sides discuss during that meeting in Moscow and why was it a secret meeting?

2. On April 7, Armenian President Serj Sargsyan gave an interview to the German Deutsche Welle, in which he stated that Armenia had never objected to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabagh. Taking into account the fact that Nagorno Karabagh has strongly opposed the deployment of peacekeepers in in its territory ever since 1994, we get the impression that Serj Sargsyan is paving the way for the news to come.   

3. The Russian-Armenian relations have sharply deteriorated during the recent days. It was expressed in multiple ways: starting from the change of rhetoric of official Yerevan when referring to its “strategic ally” and ending with the fact that Dmitri Medvedev was accompanied to the Armenian Genocide Memorial only by Yerevan Mayor Taron Margaryan. This change may both be related to the fact of arms sales to Azerbaijan and some diplomatic coercion.

4. There is also an activation of discussion about the mystical Kazan Document which was suggested by Russia during the meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in 2011. Armenia had agreed to accept the document and Azerbaijan had refused. At that time there was speculation that according to that document Armenia had agreed to return part of the regions outside the territory of former Nagorno Karabagh Autonomous Oblast (some speculated about 5 of them, others – about all the 7), and Nagorno Karabagh had to receive a special status. In the first place, it is doubtful whether the document is beneficial for the Armenian side. Nevertheless, an even more doubtful statement was recently made by Sergey Lavrov in Baku. Namely, he had stated that the Russian side has suggestions regarding the conflict settlement and the sides are close to accepting those suggestions. In response to this statement, Spokesman of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Tigran Balayan had mentioned that the Kazan document submitted in 2011 is on the negotiating table. It is unclear what document the sides are close to adopting (the Kazan document or another one). Nevertheless, it is more than clear that if Kremlin forces a suggestion on Armenia according to which part of the territories will be passed to Azerbaijan and the rest will receive a special status under peacekeepers’ control, we will have clear diplomatic evidence that Baku’s last attack was carried out with Russia’s permission or even provocation.

5. There are already political forces in Armenia which are in favor of deployment of peacekeeping troops in Nagorno Karabagh. Particularly, such an opinion has been expressed by head of ANC faction of the RA National Assembly Levon Zurabyan. Head of the ruling party faction has also announced that they would not mind the deployment of peacekeepers.

6. On April 11, we learnt that the “National Guard”, which was created according to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree, will receive authorization of carrying out foreign peacekeeping mission. And though that structure is based on the Russian police forces, it is going to operate beyond the Russian borders and have a “peacekeeping mission”. This means that in case Russian peacekeeping troops are deployed in Nagorno Karabagh, these are going to be the same forces that disperse protests in Russia.

Source: https://hetq.am/eng/news/67263/opinion-moscow-intends-to-deploy-peacekeepers-in-nagorno-karabagh---6-facts.html

Secrets of the Four-Day Karabakh War


Armenian and Azeri chiefs of General Staff signed a ceasefire in Moscow on April 6th and the gunfire stopped. Following the ceasefire, it is necessary to look at the behind-the- scenes secrets of this clash. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a crisis emerged due to the separatist tendencies of Karabakh Armenians and with the state of Armenia’s support this crisis turned into a war. The war started in 1991 and ended in 1994 with a ceasefire. This ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan was signed in Nagorno-Karabakh area between the states. Even if the Madrid Principles—as suggested by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)—had been acknowledged by the parties during the twenty-two years of ongoing peace negotiations, there was not an agreement on details of how it would work out.

What was needed in order to start the peace process as suggested in the “Gradual Solution” for Karabakh issue, was the Armenian withdrawal from the 5(+2) regions—Gubadli, Cevrayil, Ağdam, Fizuli and Kelbecer, Lacin—around Nagorno-Karabakh. Later, parties were expected to work on determining the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and reach an agreement. But the parties could not reach that phase. In the end, clashes that had been expected, erupted again.

Azerbaijan’s explanation of the April 2016 clash is because of the Armenian military provocations throughout the year. That is why Azerbaijan developed the strategy of reprisals with small scale operations (Controlled Conflicted Strategy) in Karabakh. But this time, a possibility for arousal of these small scale operations was possible. It was even possible for it to go out of control and to turn into a full scale war. The Azerbaijani army recaptured a few important positions in regions such as Seysulan, Leletepe and Talish around Karabakh.

Retreat of the Armenian army around Karabakh raised serious concerns within the central government. Thus, Armenia tried to recapture their positions by carrying out military operations because this type of loss of territory disturbs the governments both in Armenia and Karabakh and which also created fear. In fact these losses may even cause Sargsyan to lose power in Armenia. After the ceasefire, according to Armenian press, a Talish village was recaptured from the Azerbaijan army.

What is the reason behind all these military provocations?

One plausible answer would be as follows: Azerbaijan and Armenia put pressure on each other and therefore, provoking each other. Every time, before or after the meetings of presidents of the two countries, there have been small scale clashes. “Who started it first” line of questioning seems meaningless. Previously, a one-day conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan took place on March 4. This conflict lasted only one day and ended with Russia's pressure. Eventually with the initiative of Kremlin and Medvedev, presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration resolving the conflict with peaceful means, on November 2, 2008.

Despite this, the conflict did not stop in Karabakh. This created an even more of a chance for this conflict to grow into a war. This time, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gave a warning to both Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan on August 5, 2011, reminding them of the lessons learned during the war of Georgia. Medvedev met with both leaders on January 23, 2012 and made them issue a joint declaration that they would find a peaceful solution to the problem. However, there was no real convergence. In 2015 there was more than 100 breaches of the ceasefire and twelve Azerbaijani soldiers were killed.

Who could be helping to create this conflict? President of Azerbaijan, Aliyev, who was in the security summit in the USA, has given the signals of successful meetings with US authorities about the Southern Gas Corridor. John Kerry clearly stated they support the Southern Gas Corridor and he also pointed out its importance when he met Aliyev. Aliyev also explained the importance of this support and conveyed his appreciation. For the success of the Southern Gas Corridor Project, stability in the region is extremely important. After all these successful meetings, why would they carry out military operations having negative effect on energy projects and cause instability in the region?

There may be two reasons: First, Azerbaijan's worsening economy. Carrying out military operations may be a strategy of distracting the population from their real problems. Second, there may be an agreement between Azerbaijan and Russia that is forcing Armenia to make peace, which also has the effect of showing how powerful Russia can be. Azerbaijan's Controlled Conflict operation is only possible by compromising with Russia. The main outcome is Moscow's motivation to give Azerbaijan the green light to start a war. The real reason, needless to say, is to keep Azerbaijan by its side permanently. Thus, it may be better to think about the outcome of Azerbaijan’s green light.

It is hard to understand Armenia's enthusiasm for these provocations, because maintaining status quo suits the Armenian government quite well. However, it should be noted that there has always has been a tendency to breach the ceasefire at the border. The actual reason of this tendency is to make the Nagorno-Karabakh government come to the table as a third party although it is not a recognized entity.

Another important issue is that, the negative effect of these small scale clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not only related to the American energy projects. If Azerbaijan responds to the provocations of Armenians and fails to maintain a controlled war strategy or in other words, if the situation gets out of control and a full scale war starts; Moscow may put pressure on both sides to enforce a Russian Peacekeeping Force in Karabakh. That may be dangerous for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. By intervening in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in this way Russia would become more and more influential in the area. These three parties in Minsk Group (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh) would decline in importance in the region that is already under Russian influence, and would eventually become totally in the Kremlin's control.

Following these developments, Russia has been increasingly active in solving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem between Azerbaijan and Armenia. After the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Azerbaijan many important messages had been issued. The first message following Azerbaijan visit of Lavrov was the following: “Azerbaijan is not a member of Collective Security Treaty Organization and Eurasian Economic Union. I hope this can change.” The second: “As the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is determined, regions around the crisis zone may be given back to Azerbaijan.” It is known that Azerbaijan has always been against that kind of solution. Azerbaijan rather prefers gradual solution to the problem. These comments clearly have a purpose of assuring Azerbaijan's membership to Collective Security Treaty Organization. After this guarantee is ensured, it is possible to proceed with the principles suggested to Azerbaijan and Armenia by Russia in Kazan in 2011. They will go back to a gradual solution with establishment of Russian peacekeepers. That is why Lavrov emphasized principles of solutions, in particular, suggested by Dmitry Medvedev.

August 8th of 2008, (8/8/2008) is a significant date as a reminder of Georgia example to Azerbaijan and Armenia (it is the date of placement of Russian peacekeeping forces in Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia). It is a process that Azerbaijan saw how Russia showed a “knee jerk reaction” against a small scale clash. Therefore, both countries should question whether Russian peacekeepers ensure permanent peace or not. Nagorno-Karabakh process should be brought back to the table together with OSCE Minsk members and it is necessary to be careful not to leave it to complete Russian control.
 

Russian experts on Aliyev-Kerry meeting in the absence of Sargsyan

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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met today in Washington with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. During the meeting they discussed bilateral and economic issues, as well as touched upon the Karabakh issue, reports the U.S. State Department. John Kerry expressed concerns about the violence on the contact line between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces. “We want to see the final resolution of the Karabakh conflict. The issue should be resolved through negotiations, we have worked on it for a long time,” said the Secretary of State.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is also on a working visit in the United States, but the U.S. leadership hasn’t planned any meeting with him. The meeting between Ilham Aliyev and John Kerry and the absence of such a meeting with Serzh Sargsyan is dictated, first of all, by the United States’ position in relation to Turkey as a NATO member, – says Alexander Gusyev, head of the CIS Center for Strategic Development at the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences. “Azerbaijan is a strategic partner of Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic bloc, while Armenia is a CSTO member. In this situation, John Kerry chose from one of the two presidents. However, given the specificity of the Karabakh conflict, Kerry should meet with one and another. But self comes to the mind,”- told RUSARMINFO Alexander Gusyev.

This meeting does not mean that the United States prefer Azerbaijan against other countries in the South Caucasus, – says Alexey Martynov, head of the International Institute of the Newest States. “Such conflicts as Nagorno-Karabakh can not be solved unilaterally. After the meeting, the representatives of the United States will hold talks with representatives of Yerevan and Stepanakert, as a third party to the conflict,” told RUSARMINFO Alexey Martynov. Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev have visited the U.S. to attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington.

Source: http://rusarminfo.ru/russian-experts-on-aliyev-kerry-meeting-in-absence-of-sargsyan/

In an Armenian-Azeri War Russia Has Nothing to Gain and Turkey Nothing to Lose

http://cdn.timesofisrael.com/uploads/2016/04/Azerbaijan-Armenia_Horo-2.jpg

Clashes between Armenian and Azeri forces in Nagorno-Karabakh have continued for the third day with at least 40 soldiers and half a dozen civilians killed so far. Aside from Armenians and Azeris themselves the people who will be most worried by these developments are the residents of Kremlin. It is the case that in the case of a wider Armenian-Azeri conflict Russia has nothing to gain and much to lose, and worse, its rival Turkey has nothing to lose and much to gain. This is because while Russia has good relations with Armenia and Turkey good relations with Azerbaijan, Moscow also enjoys decent relations with Azerbaijan but Turkey has no Armenia relations to speak of. Therefore if war is rekindled Turkey could back Azerbaijan without reservations and draw it closer to itself, but Russia would see its influence with at least one, or even both of the countries involed diminish.

Background: Azerbaijan

When Azerbaijan became independent in 1991 the two states which rejoiced the most were Turkey and Iran. Iran because it was a Shia, and Turkey because it was a Turkic country. Both looked benevolently on the new country and offered themselves up as a model for Azerbaijan to follow. Azerbaijan chose Turkey. The most visible aspect of this choice was in replacing the Cyrillic alphabet in use until 1991 with a Turkish variant of the Latin script, instead of the Iranian-Arabic script used by the 20 million Azeris of Iran. Despite generally orienting itself towards Ankara and Washington Azerbaijan's Aliyev dynasty, which is weary of a possible "color revolution" against it, has strove to balance these with decent working ties with Russia. For example, unlike neighboring Georgia, Azerbaijan is not seeking to join NATO and has refused to back the Turkish position on Syria - but has instead offered to "mediate" between Ankara and Moscow. 

Background: Armenia

When Armenia regained its independence in 1991 its biggest, and somewhat coincidental, backer was the US. Thanks to the efforts of the powerful Armenian-American lobby Armenia was the biggest recipient of American aid of all the post-Soviet states after Russia. However, discounting the Armenian success in securing financial and moral support from US Congress and state legislatures, Armenia never figured in the geopolitical calculus of Washington which deemed the oil-rich Azerbaijan the far bigger prize and the more desirable partner.
Armenian lobby or not, Washington was simply not going to risk its access to the Caspian oil and its relations to NATO-member Turkey on the account of an isolated and impoverished mountain state of 3 million people. Subsequently Yerevan, pressed between Azerbaijan and Turkey, but with nowhere to turn to eventually linked up with Russia, which in the 1990s was likewise starved for friends and would take them where it could find them. – An alliance with isolated and impoverished Armenia was not much, but for Moscow it was better than having no influence or close friends in the Southern Caucasus at all.

When Erdogan's Justice and Development party first came to power in Turkey it, as part of its "zero policy with neighbors" policy, made an attempt to normalize the Turkish-Armenian relations. However, nothing came of this after Armenians demanded Turkey recognizes the Armenian genocide and Ankara refused. Presently Turkey and Armenia basically do not have a relationship of any kind and the border between the two is sealed – from the Turkish side on the behalf of Azerbaijan.

Today

In the 1990s Russian-Armenian ties were realized because at the time Moscow and Yerevan were each other's only remaining option after other, more desirable partners had paired off with each other. However, since after 2000 Russia has managed to recreate itself as an actually functioning state now Azerbaijan (but not Georgia) also takes note of it. A war however could rapidly change this. In case of a war both Yerevan and Baku would be looking for backers to help them out militarily.

Since Turkey has no Armenia relationship to lose it could back Azerbaijan to the hilt. This would bring the oil-rich country of 10 million people even closer to Turkey. Russia, however, has such close ties to Armenia it can not possibly assist Azerbaijan in any way. Moreover, albeit its Armenia alliance does not cover Nagorno-Karabakh, if Armenians are left to fight on their own and the war goes badly for them they will naturally come to question the value of Russia ties. However, if the war goes badly for Azeris they will suspect that Russia has rendered aid to Armenians even if Moscow does no such thing.

In other words, renewed Armenian-Azeri war is a lose-lose proposition for Russia. The only way Russia can be useful to Baku and Yerevan both is if they desire peace and are looking for a way to de-escalate. Erdogan has shown that he understands this perfectly. Reacting to the news of the clashes he has essentially said that if Azeris want to fight Turkey will back them "to the end". Who will Baku chose to listen to? Turkey which is encouraging it to fight, or Russia which is calling for peace?

Source: http://russia-insider.com/en/armenian-azeri-war-russia-has-nothing-gain-and-turkey-nothing-lose/ri13752

Number of Armenian volunteers are so great that only the most experiences is accepted

Добровольцы из Армении в Нагорном Карабахе

Press Secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia announced that thousands of volunteers are continuing to apply, even from Diaspora. “The volunteers are kindly requested to apply by groups. It is impossible to reply to individuals. Currently, the number of volunteers is so great that only the most-experienced are being accepted”, Hovhannisyan wrote. Thousands of patriotic Armenians throughout Armenia, Artsakh and the Diaspora are willing to volunteer and head to the frontline in Nagorno Karabakh, after the large-scale military operations unleashed by Azerbaijan.

The UN Security Council adopted four resolutions between April and November, 1993, calling for “effective and permanent” ceasefire, as well as “immediate implementation of the reciprocal and urgent steps” in that direction. Peace talks between Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan have been facilitated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe since March 1992 within the frameworks of Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, United States and France since mid-1990s. Ceasefire agreement between Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan, facilitated by Russia's representative to the CSCE/OSCE Minsk Group Vladimir Kazimirov, was signed on May 5, 1994, which had been maintained with only sporadic violations along the Line of Contact and international border till the latest Azerbaijani large scale offensive in the night of April 2, 2016.

Over the last two years Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh, the OSCE Minsk Group co-Chairs and over 80 U.S. Congressmen (Royce-Engel bill) proposed concrete measures to de-escalate situation and establish ceasefire monitoring equipments along the borders. Azerbaijan has been repeatedly rejecting these calls. Azerbaijan has unleashed unprecedented offensive military actions in the contact line of Nagorno Karabakh. Due to the timely and professional actions of the Nagorno Karabakh Defense Army, it was possible to take the situation under control, and make the enemy suffer considerable losses. On April 1 and 2, the Azerbaijani forces sustained 200 casualties. Around 20 enemy tanks and 1 “Grad” missile system were destroyed.


BBC: Nagorno-Karabakh: Fighting mood grips Armenians


Stepanakert's central square is a hive of activity after four days of clashes - uncharacteristically for the sleepy capital of Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh. There are men in military uniform, civilians gathered outside the union of war veterans, trucks delivering humanitarian aid from different parts of Armenia, as well as satellite trucks and journalists. Like many other towns and villages in the mountainous Caucasus enclave, Stepanakert has an Azeri name too - Khankendi. I approach a woman who is having an emotional phone conversation with one of her students on the front line. "For 20 years I've been involved in peace-building activities. I used to teach my students that those people who left their homes as a result of the 1990s war have the right to return, but today I denounce my own words," says Zhanna Krikorova, who runs a student theatre at a local university.

"We don't trust anyone anymore, we can only rely on ourselves, on those young men who are fighting there."

The warring sides reached a ceasefire on Tuesday, less than 24 hours after Azerbaijan threatened to attack Stepanakert. But given the level of hostilities of the past few days, in which dozens of soldiers on both sides have died, the ceasefire is being treated with caution. In the veterans' union building Khasnik Mikailyan, who heads an organisation called "Motherland", says Karabakh Armenians have been living in a powder keg for more than 20 years, knowing that war might start at any moment, so the events of the past few days did not come as surprise. On the contrary, it united Armenians.

"This morning a group of schoolboys turned up in my office with their backpacks telling me they were ready to go and fight in the war," says Khasnik, holding a piece of paper with their names and telephone numbers. "Everyone is ready to fight for their motherland. I gave them a hug and a kiss and said that we needed them to study well."

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35970303

Azeri Army Commits Atrocities


As the Nagorno-Karabakh Army launched a counteroffensive on Sunday regaining strategic high ground, heavy fighting raged for a second day between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces. Yet the counteroffensive gave reporters an opportunity to examine the region and report on atrocities the Azeri Army has committed in addition to the documented continuous shelling of border villages targeting civilians within the Nagorno-Karabakh, which has caused the death of 12 year old Vaghinak Grigoryan, who was killed playing in his school courtyard, and seven civilians, among whom were Darbas Mayor M. Mirzoyan and Akhtala Mayor A. Beglaryan, who were killed when a civilian bus was targeted by an Azeri missile. Hetq.am photographer Hakob Poghosyan reports from Talish, a few kilometers inside the Nagorno-Karabakh border with Azerbaijan, which was temporarily overrun by Azerbaijani military units on Saturday. A few residents had remained in town when Azerbaijani soldiers entered the town and executed an elderly couple; Valera Khalapyan and his wife Razmela, in their home and then cut off their ears. Azerbaijani soldiers also executed a 92 year old Marousya Khalapyan. Reports are also coming in from Armenia’s Ezidi community that a 20-year-old Ezidi soldier, Karam Sloyan, from Armenia who was among the casualties was apparently beheaded. Pictures of Azerbaijani soldiers posing with Sloyan´s decapitated head surfaced on VKontakte, a popular social network in Eastern Europe. Soon after, an ISIS-like video emerged on the internet, showing Azerbaijanis holding the severed head of Sloyan like a trophy fish. As many Ezidis have taken refuge in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh to escape ISIS in Iraq, such barbarism brings back horrible memories of atrocities the Ezidi community of Iraq faced at the hands of ISIS terrorists.


Russian military begins exercises in Dagestan region bordering Azerbaijan

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Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts on Tuesday to call for an immediate end to heavy fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh that has killed dozens of soldiers from both sides. In a statement, the Kremlin said Putin reiterated his concerns regarding the worst escalation of the Karabakh conflict since 1994 and “urged both sides to urgently ensure a full cessation of hostilities and observance of the ceasefire regime.”
  
“It was pointed out that Russia is taking and will continue to take necessary mediating steps to help normalize the situation,” said the statement. It said Putin also stressed the need to resume Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk Group co-headed by Russia, the United States and France. “It was agreed that contacts should continue in different formats,” the statement added without elaborating. With official Armenian and Azerbaijani sources giving no further details of the phone calls, it was not clear whether Putin sought to organize a meeting of Presidents Serzh Sarkisian and Ilham Aliyev.

Sarkisian is scheduled to travel to Germany on Wednesday on a two-day official visit that will involve talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The phone conversations were reported several hours after the two warring sides said they have agreed to halt hostilities along “the line of contact” around Karabakh at noon. A spokesman for the Karabakh Armenian army said on Tuesday evening that the intensity of fighting decreased even though Azerbaijani forces continued to shell Armenian positions at different sections of the frontline.

Putin was quick to express through his press secretary serious concern after the Azerbaijani army launched an offensive at different sections of the Karabakh frontline early on Saturday. Despite its close military and political ties with Armenia, Moscow has been careful not to publicly blame Baku for the fighting or pledge support for the Armenian side. The Russian military began on Tuesday five-day exercises in Russia’s southern Dagestan region bordering Azerbaijan. It was not clear whether the drills reportedly involving about 1,000 soldiers as well as dozens of tanks and artillery systems were planned beforehand or are connected with the Karabakh escalation.
Sputnik: How Russia Sees Security Risks South of Its Borders

Frontier Post on Russian-Georgian Border

In addition to Syria and the Middle East, and the smoldering conflict in southeastern Ukraine, the new year will see the Kremlin keeping a close eye on an enormous arc of potential instability to Russia's south, stretching from Istanbul to Xinjiang, writes Expert.ru journalist Gevorg Mirzayan. In his analysis, published in respected business magazine Expert, Mirzayan starts off by suggesting that to a large extent, Russia's ability to maintain stability across this 'southern arc' will depend on finalizing its chosen vector of relations with Turkey.

"Of course, the optimum vector would be for the normalization and stabilization of relations, even if strategic partnership is now out of the question. Nevertheless, good-neighborly relations, the development of economic ties and a certain level of cooperation in the Caucasus and in the direction of Europe are still possible to recover."

"The problem," Mirzayan suggests, "is that interfering with this vector is Turkish leaders' inability to simply apologize for the downed Su-24. Ankara realized long ago that it has committed not just a mistake, but a crime against its own national interests by shooting down the plane, but Recep Tayyip Erdogan's pride prevents him from apologizing."

"The Turks are now trying to show humility and restraint, hoping that Vladimir Putin will rage for a while and then replace anger with mercy. However, judging by his statements at his big press conference last month, the Russian president is looking at the situation very seriously. Apparently, his Turkish counterpart derailed some very important agreements with Moscow."
"However," the analyst continues, "if a policy of cooperation will not be possible, a clear course of confrontation aimed at weakening Ankara to the maximum extent possible would also make Russia's life easier. At the minimum, the Kremlin is developing its strategy to remove Ankara's influence in several regions which are of key interest to Russia – the Caucasus and Central Asia, and will be looking to implement it without regard for any hopes about a renewed partnership with Ankara. By all appearances, the indicator of the strategy will be Russia's bid on the development of close relations with the Kurds –both Turkish and Syrian."

In the Caucasus, Mirzayan notes, there are two possible sources of instability: the frozen Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the future of Russian-Georgian relations.  "On the first issue, a significant role might be played by Turkey and Turkish interests. It's no secret that Moscow is doing all it can to avoid the 'unfreezing' of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. With this in mind, it is a) negotiating with Baku and Yerevan, and b) attempting to develop measures to deescalate the situation."

Ankara, the analyst warns, may try to convince Azerbaijan's leadership that there is an alternative to the uneasy peace over the breakaway republic, by indicating that "Turkey is ready to abandon its former moderate policy on the Armenian question." If before, "the Turkish government worked not only not to inflame the Karabakh conflict, but on the contrary, attempted to freeze it and even to normalize relations with Armenia, for the sake of cooperation with Russia," now, Ankara "could push Baku toward escalation. Of course, this would be a bluff, and would cause serious problems for Erdogan with his European partners, but it could encourage the Azerbaijani president to cross certain red lines, thus turning a serious problem for Moscow."

The second issue is Georgia. "Yes, Russian-Georgian relations are now in the process of normalization, but the onset of the Ukrainian crisis and both sides' inability to demonstrate political will to make difficult decisions has led to the stagnation of the process." The danger, Mirzayan suggests, is not one of military conflict, but "that the process of normalization could be derailed."

"After all, this is not just an issue of an attempt to improve relations with a small country with a population smaller than the city of St. Petersburg. It is about setting a possible precedent in forming an effective modus vivendi with a country of the former Soviet Union which has chosen the Euro-Atlantic course."

Finally, according to the analyst, "the most important link among the 'southern arc of instability' is, of course, Central Asia. Yes, today there are no open conflicts requiring an immediate solution (as in the case of Turkey), but the region faces internal processes of erosion," which threaten to give birth to political crises, "complicated by the general socio-economic problems there. Here, the Kremlin will have to deal with two processes at the same time: to freeze the crisis, and to create new foundations for statehood. The task, to put it mildly, is not an easy one."

"The irony," Mirzayan suggests, "is that eliminating the causes of the erosion is not much easier [than dealing with crises after the fact]. Complications in the political situation are caused neither by Daesh, nor by Turkey, with its pan-Turkic ambitions. They are caused by the inefficiency of the region's states. This lies not in their authoritarian tendencies (history knows authoritarian regimes which successfully led their people on the path of progress), but on the inadequacy of local elites. They are afraid of progress because they do not want to or are unable to adapt to their changing societies."

And "the policy of conservation," the analyst warns, "could lead to revolutions, possibly of an Islamist character, given the realities of the region." Ultimately, Moscow, for its part, "will have to engage in stimulating the evolution of Central Asian governments, something which in itself risks complicating relations with them." The Kremlin, Mirzayan hopes, will be morally and politically prepared to take the necessary measures.

Source: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160111/1032964746/russia-security-risks-caucasus-central-asia.html

What's Israel's Role in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict?

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With the decades-long Azeri-Armenian conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region burning out of control for four intense, blood-soaked days at the beginning of this month, questions have emerged over the secretive role played by Israel in the conflict.

Late last week, commenting on the recent escalation of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, former Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman blamed Armenia for provoking four days of clashes which left over a hundred dead and dozens wounded. Azerbaijan, Lieberman said, had "no reasons for escalating the conflict," despite extensive reports confirming that Azerbaijan was the party that launched offensive operations to regain control of territory in the Armenia-backed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

For its part, the Azeri Defense Ministry called the operation, which resulted in the taking of several strategic heights and settlements, a successful 'counteroffensive' launched in response to Armenian shelling. Lieberman's words would be echoed by retired Israel Defense Forces general Ephraim Sneh, who emphasized in a Friday op-ed for Al-Monitor that Azerbaijan is Israel's "strategic ally," and that at the moment, Baku "needs all the diplomatic help [Israel] can muster." Sneh slammed Tel Aviv for "staying silent" in Baku's hour of need, explaining that Azerbaijan is one of Israel's only friends in the Islamic world, and adding that Israel needs Azerbaijan to ensure its energy security, with Baku providing the Jewish State with some 40% of its oil. Russia's mediation of the conflict, Sneh suggested, has been disastrous for Baku, with the "status quo" that emerged in 1994 following the six-year war which began in the late 1980s "convenient for everyone, except for Azerbaijan."

Blaming Armenia for violations of the ceasefire (and absolving the Azeris of their own violations), Sneh candidly admitted that Baku started the latest bloodshed, and suggested that Azerbaijan's challenging of the status quo may actually work in its favor. Saying that the current Moscow-brokered ceasefire, is "tenuous at best and not expected to last long," the general says that he is hopeful that "now that Azerbaijan has proved its military superiority, there is a chance for real diplomatic negotiations that could lead to an agreement between the two countries," i.e. for the ethnically Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to give its territory. In this sense, Sneh says, the Azeris could take a lesson from Tel Aviv and negotiate according to a formula of "land for peace," which Israel used in the late 1970s in negotiations with Egypt to return the Sinai Peninsula.

This time, Sneh argues, the Azeris should do the same, but in reverse, promising Armenia peace in exchange for Nagorno-Karabakh. "Armenia's weak economy could stand to benefit from such an agreement." Moreover, "improved economic relations with Turkey are just one important economic benefit that Armenia can be assured of as soon as it withdraws from the occupied Azeri territories." "Meanwhile, Azerbaijan needs much more robust diplomatic support than it is receiving today." Unfortunately, Sneh complains, Baku hasn't been getting it from Israel.

But just how silent has Tel Aviv actually been? To begin with, hints of the extensive military cooperation between the two countries emerged in the first days of the conflict, indicating that Israeli 'suicide drones' were being used by Azeri forces in the course of their offensive. The Harop unmanned aerial vehicle, which acts as a 'kamikaze' capable of destroying targets by ramming into them, is produced by Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI). ​According to French intelligence newsletter Intelligence Online, in addition to drones, Israel also provides Baku with advanced radar systems, control and command posts, and other intelligence-collection equipment, and has even entered a bid to provide Baku with a $150 million observation satellite. Israel has refused to confirm or deny its sale of drones, or other weaponry, to Azerbaijan. However, Meretz party chairwoman Zehava Galon came out publically warning that Israel intends to send more drones to Baku. In a letter addressed to Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, Galon urged that the Israeli government should stop weapons deliveries to the Azeris until it could be assured that Baku would halt the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh.

At the same time, Israeli security and intelligence specialist Yossi Melman says that Israel has a massive, but highly secretive, defense footprint in Azerbaijan. In his analysis for The Jerusalem Post, Melman explained that Israel and Azerbaijan enjoy annual trade which is "$5 billion larger than between Israel and France." Moreover, he said, "most of the content remains confidential, and consists of Azeri oil sold to Israel and Israeli weapons and intelligence technologies purchased by Azerbaijan." From modest beginnings in the early 1990s, Azerbaijan has grown to become "the second-biggest market in Asia, after India, for Israeli weapons," with Israeli defense companies enjoying literally billions of dollars in sales in the Caucasian state. At the same time, Melman indicates, "the best promoters of the military sales and ties are Israeli ministers and officials who visit the Caucasian nation."

"This week," the analyst recalls, "The Washington Post enabled the world to have a peeping window into the secret relations [between the two countries] when it published a photo of an Israeli-made 'suicidal drone' exploding itself on a bus leading Armenian combatants to the front lines. Seven people were killed, and the Armenian government protested to Israel."
"A few days after the incident, military journalists visited Israeli Aerospace Industries facilities and were briefed on the various products, from drones to satellites, which the company has to offer. An IAI spokeswoman was asked if the company was behind the Washington Post revelation. She refused to answer but openly smiled when one reporter commented that such a photo is good for business and promotes sales of products that can be labeled 'battle proven'."

In addition to military ties, Melman notes that the two countries also have strong intelligence ties, with Mossad given permission to set up a large station in Azerbaijan, taking advantage of the region's geography to run operations throughout the North Caucasus. Both Russian and Iranian officials have previously accused Azerbaijan of allowing Mossad to use their territory for espionage activities, the latter indicating that the Israeli missions included everything from "recruiting and planting agents," to "communication interception and aerial reconnaissance," Melman explained. Moreover, he added, "more than a year ago Iran claimed to have shot down an Israeli-made drone," claims which Israeli officials have refused to comment on. Pointing to the secretive nature of political, defense and intelligence cooperation between the two countries, the analyst noted that "it was [Azeri President Ilham] Alieyev himself who was quoted in a WikiLeaks cable sent from the US Embassy in Baku [saying] that 'bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Israel are like an iceberg. Nine-tenths are below the surface.'"

Ultimately, Melmen notes, "seemingly, Israel and Azerbaijan are an odd couple, not meant to be with each other," with the Caucasian nation not really serving as a model of Western democracy, being run by the same family since 1991, and facing issues including corruption and the suppression of free media. "On the other hand, Israel is not too selective in choosing friends when it comes to weapons sales and national interests. A quick look at the map," showing that Azerbaijan borders Iran, Israel's sworn enemy, "can explain Israeli priorities."

 Nagorno-Karabakh Witnesses Debut Of 'Kamikaze Drone'

Harop After Launch

For a glimpse into the future of drone warfare, look no further than the battlefields of the South Caucasus. Formally known as unmanned aerial vehicles, drone technology has catapulted forward in recent years as countries see their versatility in everything from surveillance to precision strikes. In the United States, President Barack Obama's administration has made the use of drones central to its campaign to target Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. And though U.S. drones are some of the better known in the world today -- think of the models known as the Reaper or Predator -- countries like Israel, Russia, and many others have also pushed hard into developing drones, both for their own military use and for export markets.

For drones geared for an offensive mission, most are outfitted with air-to-surface missiles, such as the U.S.-made Hellfire. Earlier this week, over the battlefields over Nagorno-Karabakh, where an unresolved territorial dispute flared into open fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces, the newest advance in drone weaponry appears to have been deployed: The kamikaze drone. Video footage by  Karen Chilingaryan of RFE/RL's Armenian Service on April 4 in the mountainous enclave captured the flight of a drone that military observers say is likely an Israeli-made Harop model. The footage shows the craft flying through the air, with a distinctive whine heard from many drones, and then diving behind the crest of a hill.

The Armenian Defense Ministry later announced that seven people were killed in what it said was an Azerbaijani drone attack on a bus carrying volunteers to the disputed region. According to IHS Jane's Defense Weekly, the Harop is packed with a 15-kilogram explosive warhead and specifically designed for kamikaze missions. Last year, Harop's manufacturer, Israel Aerospace Industries, announced it was flight-testing the model for an undisclosed customer. IHS Jane's said in a report posted on April 6 that that customer now appeared to be Azerbaijan. A call to Israel Aerospace Industries' North American offices, in a Virginia suburb of Washington, D.C., was not immediately returned on April 6.


"Georgian Legion" Is Ready to Help Azerbaijan "Conquer" Karabakh


The paramilitary formation "Georgian National Legion" is ready to support Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh via its officers stationed in Georgia. This statement was made by the commander of the Legion - Mamuka (Ushangi) Mamulashvili. "The Azerbaijani-Russian conflict was unleashed in Karabakh, which is an integral part of Azerbaijan. We do not support the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and we are all well aware that a collision is provoked by Russia and Putin's regime!", said the national legionary on their social media page.

Resolute commander Mamulashvili, after the adoption of the law on the right of foreigners to serve in armed forces of Ukraine, was one of the first who arrived with his group to participate in the punitive "ATO" against Donbass. Initially, he received a Ukrainian military ID. All members of the Georgian Legion are contracted soldiers of the APU, and became part of the 25th mechanized infantry battalion "Kievan Rus". The Georgian mercenaries have been fighting against the NAF on the territory of Donbass since 2014.

Ukrainian media made it clear that before the legalization of the "Georgian Legion", there was a small sabotage and reconnaissance group of up to 20 people, which operated mainly in the territory of the LPR. In its composition, except Georgians, were French, Italian, and Swiss fighters. However, reliable information on the number of foreigners in "the Legion" and their countries of origin are unknown.


Turkish mercenaries and trainers to help the Azerbaijani army to attack Karabakh


 Turkish instructors and mercenaries will help Azerbaijani armed forces on the contact line of Karabakh, it was first reported in Armenian media. "Informed sources report that on the front line of contact of the south-easterly direction towards helping the Azeri forces of the Turkish military instructors and mercenaries", - transmits, for example, the Armenian news portal ermenihaber.am. We contacted the person who is in the thick of things, and asked him to comment on this information: 

"Turkish instructors here, I confirm", - he told the Rusvesna, as a competent source in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic... Now the clashes are continuing in spite of Azerbaijan's stories about their stopping. Don't believe their words,  battles and skirmishes are in fact continuing, "- said the source for Rusvesna.

Armenian-Azerbaijani tensions and serious battles with the use of heavy equipment continue to remain the focus of Turkish electronic media. In particular, Turkey's state-run news Anadolu agency, citing the Turkish media (Hurriyet, Milliyet, Sabah, HaberTurk) says that afterwards the Turkish President had a telephone conversation with the head of Azerbaijan, who also hosted Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. "Russian Spring" reported The phone conversation heads of states, in which Erdogan expressed his condolences to Ilham Aliyev for the death of the Armed Forces troops of Azerbaijan and Baku, and assured support .


U.S. embassy in Yerevan denies accusation of fueling anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia

The U.S. embassy in Yerevan issued a statement today denying the allegation that appeared recently in Russia's Izvestia media resource that the United States directly finances opposition parties in Armenia for fueling anti-Russian sentiments.  «In an article published recently in Izvestia the paper claims that alleged sources in the Russian Embassy in Yerevan and in Armenian diplomatic circles say the U.S. is directly sponsoring pro-opposition parties, particularly to advance an anti-Russian narrative in Armenia,» the embassy says in its statement.    «We have just one thing to say to that: нет ('no' in Russian). The surreal claims in the article could not be further from the truth. The Embassy and USAID proudly – and transparently – provide funding to various civil society organizations, giving them the tools and resources to strengthen democratic institutions and make life better for the average Armenian.»   «We’re proud Armenian civil society remains one of the strongest, freest, and most vital in the region. Maybe Izvestia should look at the state of civil society in Russia and compare?

 Source: http://arka.am/en/news/politics

US Ambassador: Putin's Newest Satellite State: Armenia

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Two days before Christmas, as American policymakers were settling into the holidays, Russia quietly signed a sweeping air defense agreement with Armenia, accelerating a growing Russian military buildup that has unfolded largely under the radar. It was the most tangible sign yet that Putin is creating a new satellite state on NATO’s border and threatening an indispensable U.S. ally. The buildup in Armenia has been glossed over in Washington, despite being a key piece of Vladimir Putin’s plan to dominate the region — along with its proxy Syria and growing military ties with Iran. Most importantly, Armenia shares an approximately 165 mile border with Turkey, a NATO member and the alliance’s southern flank.  Over the last six months — as Russia’s war in Syria and pressure on Turkey has intensified — the flow of its arms and personnel into Armenia has escalated to include advanced Navodchik-2 and Takhion UAV drone aircrafts, Mi-24 helicopter gunships and Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Last July, Putin ordered snap combat readiness checks in Armenia to test the ability of his forces to react to threats to Russia’s interests abroad. Earlier this month on orders of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, Russia began a massive military exercise in its “southwestern strategic direction,” which includes Armenia. The total strength of the regional operation included approximately 8,500 troops, 900 ground artillery pieces, 200 warplanes and 50 warships. The growing Russian military presence in Armenia is but the latest indicator of a worrisome trend: Putin’s threat to NATO and America’s interests in Europe. 

The Armenian-Russian alliance is gaining strength

The Armenian-Russian alliance is gaining strength. Armenia currently hosts an estimated 5,000 Russian military personnel and two Russian bases. In 2010, both countries signed an agreement that extended Russia’s basing rights in Armenia by 24 years, until 2044, and committed Moscow to supply the Armenian armed forces with “modern and compatible weaponry and special military hardware,” according to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. The 102nd Military Base in Gyumri, Armenia — nearly 120 kilometers from the capital (and less than 10 kilometers from the Turkish border) — has become a crucial Russian beachhead. A similar Russian deployment on the borders of any other NATO member state would produce an outcry of outrage. Why are we staying silent in the face of this thinly veiled aggression against Turkey? And why are we not speaking up against Armenia for rolling out the red carpet for Putin’s shock troops? Turkey, after all, is a critical ally in the global fight against ISIS and is among the only members of the U.S.-led coalition with bases near strategic ISIS strongholds. In July 2015, Turkey and the U.S. finalized an agreement to work cooperatively to combat Islamic State terrorists in Syria and Iraq, allowing the U.S. to launch air attacks from the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey against Islamic State terrorist networks in northern Syria.

In international diplomacy, geography is everything

We ignore this threat at our peril. And in international diplomacy, geography is everything. Armenia borders three critical U.S. allies: Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russian forces currently occupy Georgian territory. Azerbaijan steadfastly resists intimidation from Moscow and is the linchpin in our efforts to wean Europe from dependence on Russian energy supplies. Make no mistake: The Russian military presence in Armenia represents a dagger pointed at the heart of NATO as the Armenia-Russian alliance strengthens. But while Moscow is rattling its sabers, Washington remains silent. Last August, The Moscow Times reported that President Putin told Turkey’s Ambassador to Moscow to “tell your dictator President he can go to hell along with his ISIS terrorists and I shall make Syria to nothing but a ‘Big Stalingrad.’” Histrionics aside, the intent is clear. Russia views Turkey as a hostile state and it will not back down. The picture that has emerged is unsettling: Armenia is enabling a bad actor, while Russia is using it to threaten our vital interests. America’s leaders must negotiate from a position of strength. Instead, we are acquiescing to Putin’s naked show of force. The history of the 20th century shows us that this will not end well. 


The Russia-Armenia alliance is threatening Turkey, a critical U.S. ally

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) speaks with US President Barack Obama (R) (File)

The Feb. 21 front-page article “For Turkey, high stakes as troubles intensify” highlighted a critical development: The growing military alliance between Russia and Armenia is threatening Turkey, an indispensable U.S. ally and partner in the fight against the Islamic State. The announcement that Russia is sending a new set of fighter jets and combat helicopters to an air base only 25 miles from the Turkish border is just the latest example of this alliance. The two countries’ economic and military ties run deep, bolstered by economic and security agreements and two military bases — including one just outside the Armenian capital. Most significant, Armenia is the only country in the region that shares a border with Turkey and has Russian troops permanently stationed. Although Armenia has welcomed thousands of Russian troops and advanced weaponry, these developments seemed to have escaped the notice of U.S. officials, who were settling in for the holidays while Russia and Armenia signed a sweeping air defense agreement two days before Christmas. It’s time for Washington to assess who our real allies in the region are.


Estranged From Russia, Turkey and Ukraine Join Forces

Turkey Ukraine

Moscow’s intervention in Syria may have achieved its objective of bolstering the Assad regime, at least temporarily, against various opposition groups in Syria’s civil war, but it has complicated its strategic position in the Black Sea by poisoning relations with Ankara. Moscow’s repeated violations of Turkish airspace in its Syria campaign, the Turkish shoot-down of a Russian warplane, and the Kremlin’s economic sanctions and threats of retaliation have spoiled a decades long successful effort by Moscow to court Ankara. In the process, it has spurred Turkish security cooperation with Georgia and especially Ukraine. During the Cold War, Turkey was NATO’s strong southern anchor against the Soviet Union.  Even in the 1990s, Ankara continued to treat Moscow with suspicion, evident, for instance, in its refusal to consider easing limitations for Russian conventional force deployments in the south during negotiations of the Conventional Forces Europe Flanks Agreement at that time.

Yet, following Ankara’s refusal to permit American forces to enter Iraq through Turkey in 2003, Moscow saw an opening and began a careful campaign to cultivate better relations with Turkey.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rise to power and his pursuit of policies in the Middle East that, at times, clashed with Washington’s own in the region, provided fertile grounds for Putin’s efforts. So too did the growing Russian-Turkish economic relationship, with major Turkish construction projects and the prospects of Russian gas flowing to Turkey through Turkish Stream.

The advantages of this courtship for Moscow were evident following its annexation of Crimea in the spring of 2014. Ankara has always maintained a special relationship with the Tatars of Crimea, a remnant from the Tatar Khanate that ruled the peninsula under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire until Moscow took it after defeating the Ottomans in the late eighteenth century.  The Tatars who returned to Crimea in the 1990s after Stalin forcefully resettled them in Central Asia during World War II, have been staunch Ukrainian patriots ever since.  Representing at least 13 percent of the population of Crimea, they have opposed Moscow’s seizure and annexation of Crimea.  As a consequence, Crimean leader Mustafa Djemilev has been banned from returning to Crimea and the Tatar community has been subject to severe repression.

Moscow’s annexation of Crimea prompted sanctions from the West on Russian officials and businessmen, and the West also threatened sanctions for foreigners conducting their business there. The official Turkish reaction to the annexation was mild.  While refusing to recognize the annexation and calling for the protection of the Crimean Tatars, Ankara chose not to criticize Moscow’s actions. Turkey didn’t impose sanctions on Russia, and Turkish airlines even reestablished flights to Simferopol, the regional capital of Crimea. Putin’s decade-long attention to Ankara and especially Erdogan had paid off.

The fact that Moscow and Ankara were pursuing different policies in Syria was not an impediment to this Russian-Turkish rapprochement. Since the start of civil unrest in Syria in 2011, the Kremlin has firmly backed the Assad regime, and Ankara has supported the Turcoman ethnic group in northern Syria and then various Islamic groups.  But Moscow’s intervention in Syria, last fall, changed the equation for two reasons. First, the Kremlin decided to demonstrate its contempt for NATO by repeatedly violating Turkish airspace during its bombing runs. Second, despite its intention to take the war to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Moscow’s bombing campaign was directed more against moderate opposition groups in Syria’s northwest, including the Turcomans. Moscow violated Turkish airspace three times, despite Turkish diplomatic complaints and warnings. The fourth time, on November 24, the Turks shot down the Russian warplane.

Moscow realized that it had overplayed its hand and tried to downplay the incident in its official reaction. Both Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu denied publicly that the Turks had taken their plane out. But when Erdogan took credit for defending Turkish airspace, the Kremlin reacted sharply with economic sanctions, threats of military retaliation, and the deployment of Russia’s most advanced anti-aircraft systems and warplanes to Syria’s northern border with Turkey. Moscow then dared the Turks to act again by sending planes into Turkey’s airspace.

Putin’s declaration of victory in Syria and partial drawdown there has reduced the danger of a direct Russian-Turkish military confrontation. With his prestige high, Putin has less need get even with Ankara for last November’s embarrassment. But the damage has been done. The consequences are evident in the Black Sea. Less than two months after the shoot-down, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov visited Ankara to discuss defense industry cooperation and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin followed within weeks. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu traveled to Kyiv in early March and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko returned the favor with a stop in Ankara shortly thereafter.

The tangible result of these visits has been the blossoming of  the Ukraine-Turkish defense relationship.  Besides burgeoning cooperation in defense industries, Ukraine and Turkey naval forces conducted joint training in the Black Sea last week to ensure their ability to operate together “in accordance with NATO standards.” This followed an initial naval exercise in the Sea of Marmara in March. At the same time, Turkey’s policy coordination with Georgia and Azerbaijan is growing. All these countries share a major interest in thwarting Moscow’s revanchist policies. Moscow’s unnecessarily provocative policy in Syria has encouraged Turkey to play a much more active role in this enterprise. This certainly satisfied.

Source: http://www.newsweek.com/estranged-russia-turkey-and-ukraine-join-forces-447473

Opinion: «Ankara pulls Georgia and Azerbaijan in Russian-Turkish conflict»

http://en.apa.az/upload/images/news/2016/february/19/big/7f7818450a91aca45498dfdd8097451c.PNG

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, talking to Georgian journalists in Strasbourg, has stressed that he intends to raise the issue of Georgia’s accession to NATO under the accelerated procedure. “Georgia can join NATO without going through the Programme of Action for membership in the alliance. Technically, it is quite feasible. We fully support Georgia’s accession to NATO, and I will put this question at the forthcoming NATO meeting in May,” mentioned the Turkish Foreign Minister. This is an anti-Russian step by Turkey in the framework of the ongoing Russian-Turkish confrontation, – says Mikhayil Alexandrov, leading expert at the Center for Military-Political Studies, MGIMO, doctor of political science. “Turkey’s attempts to speed up the process of Georgia’s membership in NATO will not end successfully, NATO members will not support such an initiative, but the very posing of this question is an open anti-Russian policy,” told RUSARMINFO Mikhayil Alexandrov. According to the expert, Ankara continues to hit Moscow in the Caucasus, strongly encouraging Baku to start a war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and now trying to drag Georgia into the Russian-Turkish conflict, the answer to that will be South Ossetia’s inclusion into Russia. In 2006, the Georgian parliament unanimously voted for Georgia’s integration into NATO. In 2008, Georgia simultaneously with the presidential elections held a referendum, according to the results of which 77 percent of Georgian constituencies voted in favor of Georgia’s accession to NATO.


Azerbaijan envoy says U.S. help needed to avert regional security meltdown

Ambassador Elin Suleymanov said the U.S. must deal with instability in his part of the world as tensions with Turkey and Russia heat up. (Voice of America)

Azerbaijan’s top diplomat in Washington said the U.S. must do more to deal with rising instability in his region, lest tensions that have already drawn in both Turkey and Russia spiral into more violence like the clashes that rocked the Nagorno-Karabakh region earlier this month.  While Ambassador Elin Suleymanov said that he’s not certain the flare-up between Russia-backed Armenia and Turkey-backed Azerbaijan was directly sparked by the ongoing Ankara-Moscow rift, he believes it “showed how dangerous things can be if they get out of control.”

The worst outbreak in fighting in more than 20 years in Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan, killed dozens of soldiers and sent nerves on edge from Europe to Washington, where concerns skyrocketed over the prospect of a Turkey-Russia proxy war. In a wide-ranging interview this week, Mr. Suleymanov told The Washington Times that the Obama administration has recently shown signs of engaging more deeply with Azerbaijan and toward counterbalancing growing Russian influence in the region as a whole.

But he stressed that far more U.S. attention will be needed to prevent a wider regional security meltdown — and suggested the Obama administration missed a rare chance to exert real influence between Turkey, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan following the early-April clash. Mr. Suleymanov said it was Russian President Vladimir Putin — not President Obama — who has exploited the situation, portraying himself as the peacemaker and summoning Armenian and Azeri military officials to Moscow to restore a cease-fire over Nagorno-Karabakh.

“It is obvious today that Russia’s profile as a major diplomatic power in the region has risen significantly over the last two weeks,” the ambassador said. “Russia is a very decisive player. We’ve seen it. And over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Russia being even more engaged than before.”

Matthew Bryza, a pointman on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict under both President George W. Bush and Mr. Obama, and the U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan from 2010 to 2011, made much the same point about the price of U.S. passivity in an op-ed for The Washington Post Tuesday. Mr. Putin, he wrote, “is exploiting the situation through intensive diplomacy that Obama shows no interest in matching. The White House has failed even to issue an official statement.”

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has for decades been a bone of contention between Moscow and Ankara. The separatist enclave inside Azerbaijan has been under the control of Armenia’s military and local ethnic Armenians since the two countries waged a war over the territory that claimed some 30,000 lives following the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. The conflict has been frozen since 1994, when both sides agreed to a cease-fire that was originally co-chaired by the U.S., France and Russia via the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Despite the cease-fire, the two sides have never signed a comprehensive peace deal. During the years since, Turkey, which already had tense relations with Armenia over charges that Turks engaged in a genocide against Armenians in World War I, has sided with Azerbaijan, imposing a trade embargo on Armenia.

Playing both sides

Russia has sought to exert influence with both sides by providing weapons to both the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis.

Source: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/12/elin-suleymanov-azerbaijan-envoy-says-us-help-need/

Armen Ashotyan: Stick with CSTO and Russia for military alliance


The Republic of Armenia relies solely on its own forces, and it shouldn’t despair over other countries’ lack of alliance in the fight with Azerbaijan for Karabakh, Armen Ashotyan, deputy chairman of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), told media Monday. Ashotyan was commenting on current discussions over the passive position of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – of which Armenia is a member — as well as military ally Russia’s sale of weapons to Azerbaijan.

“The CSTO has a contract, the relevant articles of which have not yet been implemented. Armenia, in respect of these provisions, has not yet applied to the organization, either,” he said, adding that even if Armenia was not a member of the CSTO, it has not yet received any offer for an alternative security system. “We have been an independent state for 25 years, but the West has not offered Armenia an alternative security offer, whereas the CSTO has,” said Ashotyan.

Ashotyan also disagreed with the idea that during the four-day war the myth of Russia’s being Armenia’s strategic ally broke. “Russia remains our strategic ally. You know the opinion of our government about the sale of weapons. There has been no government during the first, the second and the third presidents of Armenia in office, which would call into question the need for a strategic partnership with the Russian Federation,” he said, adding that in foreign policy Armenian authorities should be guided by the overriding interest of the country and society, and the feelings are irrelevant in this case.

Ashotyan assured that Armenia has not exhausted its means of potential assistance from Russia and the CSTO, and he says recent anti-Russian sentiments expressed by some public figures in Armenia are not genuine. The RPA’s deputy chairman also added that at a time when military actions are still going on, certain political forces are trying to create artificial agenda, demanding the resignation of the president and supreme commander.

The fact that Russia sells weapons to the adversary of its alley Armenia and the statements during the four-day war that have not been addressed to a specific side of confronting countries has raised a wave of public anger within different circles in Armenia. There was even an organized protest near the Russian Embassy in Armenia, during which participants of the rally expressed their discontent by chanting different anti-Russian phrases, as well as throwing eggs at the embassy.

Source: https://www.armenianow.com/en/karabakh/2016/05/02/armen-ashotyan-csto-russia-armenia-relations/2406/ 

Heritage: Four New Reasons Why the U.S. Must Stay Engaged in the South Caucasus


Four developments in the South Caucasus merit close attention:
  • Increasing fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno–Karabakh;
  • The upcoming referendum in and possible Russian annexation of the Georgian breakaway territory of South Ossetia;
  • The rise of Iranian meddling in the region; and
  • An increasing Russian military presence in Armenia.
It is therefore in America’s national interest to keep a close eye on developments in the region.

Recent Fighting in Nagorno–Karabakh

The outbreak of fighting between Azerbaijani forces and Armenian military and Armenian-backed militia forces in Azerbaijan’s Nagorno–Karabakh region last month threatens to destabilize an already fragile region even further. Dozens of soldiers from both sides have been killed, and Azerbaijani forces have recaptured some of the territory lost to Armenia in the early 1990s. A cease-fire is in place, but it remains fragile. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan started in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims on Azerbaijan’s Karabakh Autonomous Oblast. This action resulted in a bloody war that left 30,000 people dead and hundreds of thousands internally displaced. Since 1992, Armenian forces and Armenian-backed militias have occupied almost 20 percent of the territory that the international community recognizes as part of Azerbaijan. Today, Armenia’s occupation of parts of Azerbaijan is no different from Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea in Ukraine or its occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.

Illegal Referendum in South Ossetia

In August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia, coming as close as 15 miles to the capital city of Tbilisi. Eight years later, several thousand Russian troops occupy the two Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Recently the so-called President of South Ossetia Leonid Tibilov—himself a close friend of Vladimir Putin and a former KGB agent—announced that a referendum will be held to change the constitution, allowing South Ossetia to become part of Russia. The timing of the referendum was left vague, but he said the vote would happen before August 2016. Many of the original inhabitants of South Ossetia have been forcibly removed from their homeland or killed. During the 2008 Russian invasion, many ethnic Ossetians sought to cleanse the region once and for all of the ethnic Georgians living there—all under Russia’s watch. In 1989, South Ossetia had a population of almost 100,000 people. Today, the region has a population of only 30,000, mainly ethnic Russians and Ossetians. The South Ossetia region is internationally recognized as part of Georgia and is occupied by Russia. Therefore, such a referendum has no basis in international law.

Russian Military Buildup in Armenia

In the same way that control of Crimea is important for Russia’s projection of maritime power into the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, Moscow’s military presence in Armenia is vital for Russia’s force projection in the South Caucasus. Moscow effectively enjoys suzerainty over Yerevan. Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In September 2013, Armenia decided against signing the Association Agreement with the European Union (EU) and instead later joined the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Armenia even voted with Russia in the U.N. General Assembly on Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia maintains a sizable military presence in Armenia based on an agreement giving Moscow access to bases in that country until 2044. Late last year, Russia and Armenia signed a Combined Regional Air Defense System agreement that essentially allows Moscow to control the airspace in the whole of the South Caucasus. The bulk of the Russian force, consisting of approximately 5,000 soldiers and dozens of fighter planes and attack helicopters, is based around the 102nd Military Base just miles from the border with Turkey—a member of NATO.

Emboldening Iran

Iran is one of the established Eurasian powers and therefore, rightly or wrongly, sees itself as entitled to a special status in the South Caucasus. The deal that was agreed last summer by the international community on Iran’s nuclear weapons program will directly affect Tehran’s policy toward the region in four ways. First, Iran will have more financial resources at its disposal. Thanks to the terms of the Iran deal, Tehran has regained access to $100 billion in unlocked assets. Second, Iran will be less dependent on Russia for diplomatic top cover on the international stage. Now that Tehran is not completely beholden of Moscow for support as it was during the nuclear talks, Iran will have flexibility to compete more aggressively with Russia for influence in the region.Third, Iran now has more confidence on the international stage. In the eyes of the Iranians, the Iran deal was a diplomatic triumph. There is a feeling among those in the government that the experience of the Iran deal can be replicated to advance Iran’s interests in other regions of the world in what Iranian President Hasan Rouhani describes as a “third way” for Iranian foreign policy. Of course, the South Caucasus is included. Fourth, Iran will have more leverage to make economic and trade deals, especially with Armenia, and therefore exert more influence in the region. Before the ink dried on the deal, Iran was talking about massive investment projects in Armenia, especially in electricity and transportation.

Getting Engaged

Moscow continues to exploit ethnic divisions and tensions in the South Caucasus to advance pro-Russian policies that are often at odds with America’s or NATO’s goals in the region. Now that Iran is flush with cash and a new-found confidence, it will be more active in the region. In order to protect its interests, the U.S. therefore needs to:
  • Continue to monitor the situation in Nagorno–Karabakh. Peace talks over Nagorno–Karabakh have been stalled for years, and the U.S. can do very little to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. However, remaining silent on the matter offers implicit approval of the status quo. The U.S. should continue to call for a peaceful solution to the conflict that includes the withdrawal of Armenian forces from all Azerbaijani territories. 
  • Increase targeted economic sanctions if South Ossetia or Abkhazia is annexed by Russia. The U.S. should make it very clear to Russia that annexation of either of the breakaway regions will trigger stronger economic sanctions that target key Russian officials. The U.S. should start now to develop a strategy with its European partners to prepare for this eventuality.
  • Demonstrate a more visible presence in the region. The U.S. needs to be more engaged in the region. Otherwise, a vacuum will be created that is filled by unhealthy Russian and Iranian competition. Occasional Cabinet-level visits need to be followed by regular visits by senior officials from all areas of government, including the diplomatic, defense, economic, energy, and trade sectors.
  • Recognize that Moscow’s support for Armenia is part of a larger Russian strategy. From maximizing diplomatic influence in the region to selling weapons, Moscow benefits in many ways from the “frozen conflicts” around its borders. In addition, Russia’s support for Armenia should be recognized as one part of a larger Russian strategy to undermine NATO member Turkey.

A Grand Strategy

Although the South Caucasus is geographically far away from the U.S., events there can have serious ramifications for the transatlantic community. If the U.S. is to have a grand strategy for dealing with a resurgent Russia and an emboldened Iran, policymakers in Washington cannot ignore the South Caucasus.

 Source:  http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/05/four-new-reasons-why-the-us-must-stay-engaged-in-the-south-caucasus
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227 comments:

  1. Boghos JermagApril 15, 2016 at 6:54 PM

    I personally don't think Serge's comment was a surprise to Russia. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he got the go ahead from Russia to do so. The fact is that Serge has now gotten into bed with ARF, and he needs o quell some of his new political supporters who are western backed. (See Asbarez and all its anti-Russian sentiment). This is what middle eastern countries do. Turkey, Saudi, and Israel are close allies, but on the surface, those three demonize each other. To quote both Prophet Mohammad and Ghenghis Khan (both truly great warlords, though only one claiming to be a religious figure...) "War is deception."

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    1. ArevordiApril 15, 2016 at 6:54 PM

      Boghos,

      I think we all realize that President Sargsyan is trying to play a clever game. His game per se is not the problem, in my opinion. The problem has to do with unintended consequences. Official Yerevan is playing with Armenian emotions and you know how dangerous that can be. We can be a very irrational people. Yerevan is wittingly or unwittingly fomenting anti-Russian hysteria in the country. I don't know how well you knwo the region where Armenai is located but anti-Russian hysteria in Armenia will only lead to Armenia's destruction. President Sargsyan's game with Moscow is opening the door for Western agents throughout Armenian society to exploit this situation, and they are working overtime to do so. I look our current president as the lesser of evils, but that is not going to stop me from criticizing him when he makes foolish mistakes.

      Instead of seriously and relentlessly pursuing Armenia's national interests where it actually counts - in Moscow - our shortsighted and selfish leaders are pursuing personal gains in the West. One of the reasons why Yerevan is keeping a bit of a distance with Moscow is because it knows Moscow may force it to agree to land concessions - because Moscow wants to bring Baku into its orbit. President Sargsyan does not want to deal with that serious headache, he is therefore doing all he can to delay it. But the time to face the music may be getting closer. There is a lot of talk that the Artsakh dispute will be somehow resolved this year.

      And what's worrying me is that Armenian officials are not being proactive in the Kremlin, they are instead flirting with Western powers to show Moscow that Armenia has options (and they are of course making some money along the way). This is a foolish approach by our officials because Moscow knows very well that Armenia has no real options when it comes to security matters. And every time Moscow decides to put some kind of pressure on Yerevan, our leaders act like little spoiled children and run off to some Western capitol to whine. Armenian foreign policy is more and more becoming like a rudderless boat drifting aimlessly with the prevailing winds. And we may now be blindly drifting into a storm.

      Regarding Artsakh: Although I liked status quo, I always thought we someday had to resolve the dispute. It can't go on like this. I hate to sound like Levon Petrosian, but Yerevan should have had the courage and foresight to cut some deal with Moscow a long time ago. It may not be too late to do so, but I don't think Yerevan has the resolve. President Sargsyan is probably hoping that the next president will be the one burdened with settling the Artsakh dispute - because he wouldn't want to be the one that will have to agree to land concessions. Like I said, this may be the year; it can be beautiful (peace) or it can be ugly (war).

      Delete
    2. Boghos JermagApril 16, 2016 at 5:35 AM

      Arevordi,

      Sargsyan's quotes smell like it is following Falco's advice from the following scene in Gladiator:

      COMMODUS: And now they love Maximus for his mercy, so I can't kill him or it makes him even more merciful. The whole thing is like a great...nightmare.
      FALCO: He is defying you. His every victory is an act of defiance, the mob sees this, and so do the Senate. Every day he lives they grow bolder. Kill him!
      COMMODUS: No! I will not make a martyr of him.
      FALCO: I have been told of a certain sea snake which has a very unusual method of attracting its prey. It will lie at the bottom of the ocean as if wounded, then its enemies will approach and yet it will lie quite still and then its enemies will take little bites of it and yet it remains still.
      COMMODUS: So, we will lie still and let our enemies come to us and nibble. ...have every senator followed.

      You are right about playing with irrational Armenian emotions is a dangerous game. But, unfortunately, this game is necessary where the nation (not country) of Armenia is spread throughout many continents. How do you keep Armenians abroad being Armenian, while keeping Armenia from becoming a failed state? Armenia is not Italy with 60 million people. This is the nature of the beast. I truly do not know what the answer is. But this is the problem.

      As for being proactive in the Kremlin, I have no idea. I do not know how Russian politics work.

      Regarding giving up territories? Like what? Which territories do you give up? What would appease Azerbaijian? More importantly, could Armenia survive peace? There are many aspects of Armenian culture that defy me, despite being Armenian.

      Delete
  2. ZoravarApril 15, 2016 at 7:35 PM

    My uptake on the matter from a military perspective:

    1) Apart from jet fighters, the Azeris used everything they got: Helicopter gunships, Smerch, all sorts of Israeli UAVs (including Kamikaze ones), Israeli Spike anti-tank missiles, T-90S tanks etc. They showed us everything they have got and their full potential. We used no new system or weapon, we have not revealed our best cards. They also demonstrated to us their infiltration tactics.

    2) With this serious incursion, the Azeri high command may have wanted us to mobilize our reserves and commit them on the battlefield in order to engage us into a nasty war of attrition where they have an advantage in human resources and finances. Our leadership did not fall in the trap. Our reservists were never called (only volunteers signed up). Most of the armed forces were kept in the back. Only the soldiers on the front and their supporting formations (tanks and artillery) did the fighting. As far as I know, even our special forces were kept in reserve.

    3) The biggest damage done to our side was from the Israeli Kamikaze drones (which hit tanks, command posts and a busload of Armenian soldiers)and from the Israeli Spike-NLOS ultra-long range anti-tank guided missile (big 70 kg missile with up to 25 km range). The former can be dealt with the Pantsir-S SAM system that we are supposed to receive as part of our $200 mil. order from Russia. The later can be mitigated by using better concealment, camouflage nets, active anti-tank systems etc.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Harop
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spike_(missile)

    4) The Azeri human losses are very significant. While most of our dead soldiers are conscripts. A large part of their dead include their best trained special forces.

    5) In materials terms (and financially), the cost of the 5 day war was much higher to the Azerbaijan army who lost some expensive assets: at least one helicopter, a good number of UAVs and a number of T-90S tanks. We lost some old Soviet era T-72 tanks and other vehicles and absolutely no air assets. By the way, the made in Israel Kamikaze UAVs are very expensive and are designed to be used only on very important targets (not on old tanks).

    6) As far as territory is concerned, We regained all the positions on the northern front. On the southern front, we lost a small hill (Lele Tepe) less than 200 m inside our territory. No strategic significance in that loss, only symbolic and emotional.

    PS: It looks like nobody realized that the Azeris shot down one of their own UAV. Here is a video from Azerbaijan where they are claiming they have shot down an Armenian UAV. In fact is one of their own ORBITER Israeli made drone.

    Ermənistana məxsus pilotsuz uçan aparat vuruldu: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67rzl2vHlp4

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    Replies
    1. ArevordiApril 15, 2016 at 7:38 PM

      Zoravar,

      All the video footage and photos I have been seeing are from one or two artillery units and some infantry units in more quiet areas of the line-of-contact. I have seen no photo or video coverage of our special forces, mechanized infantry, tanks units or air defense units. I don't think this was because they were all kept in reserve. I suspect news reporters were kept away from such units because these units were the ones directly reacting to the Azeri incursion. Our side was performing major combat operations in several sectors along the front - yet we have seen absolutely no video or photo coverage of them. I am sure the territories that were taken back were not liberated by artillery units and conscripts holed up in trenches. From what I heard, Talysh, the village Azeris had occupied in the first day of their incursion, was retaken by our special forces and mechanized infantry. I agree that Israeli weapons proved most damaging. I don't think Baku cares about their high price, they were used for shock effect. Our side needs to figure out a countermeasure to these Israeli made drones (as well as their long range anti-tank missile) before Baku has the urge to attack again. Also, although our ministry of defense has told us that our troops were successful against Azerbaijan's T-90s, I yet have to see videos/pictures of those we claim to have knocked out. Moreover, video recordings of remnants of missiles that are being said were from the Smerch MLRS, do not seem accurate. Any thoughts?

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    2. ZoravarApril 15, 2016 at 7:41 PM

      Arevordi,

      There is at least one video showing a tank in action, OSA (SAM-8) etc. These assets in addition to the artillery units that you saw are part of the second line of defense. They are the ones that contained the Azer incursion and repulsed them. In most places, the Azeri advances were limited to occupying our forward trenches. We are talking about a few hundred meters only. Retaking them was not a major problem. If we had used our main forces, you would have seen a combined force consisting of a large numbers of tanks, armored vehicles, Giasint artillery in conjunction with helicopter gunships and strike aircraft. If theses assets were committed, the casualty numbers would have been exponentially higher on both sides. This 5 day battle is more reminiscent to a mini version of World War One trench warfare. Smerch has been used in at least one location. There were some fake photos posted about Smerch. The photos were from Donbass. Later on, genuine photos emerged from both Armenian reporters and the RT correspondent in Karabagh.

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    3. ArevordiApril 15, 2016 at 8:29 PM

      Zoravar, I realize that combined arms was not used during the hostilities by our side. But the territories that were initially lost were taken back by mechanized infantry and special forces; at least in some locations from what I know. My point was that these combat units did not have journalists embedded with them. Also, they were performing a lot of their tasks at nights. I believe these two factors are the reasons behind why we did not see them in action.

      Can you please confirm that the helicopter our troops shot down was the modified version of the Mi-24 Hind? Have you seen any evidence that T-90s were indeed used in their attack? Are you convinced Smerches and TOS-1s were used?

      I am asking all this because another thing my contact in Yerevan had mentioned yesterday was that Moscow had an understanding with Baku that the arms they were being sold would not be used against Armenians.

      Anyway, please look at this video that was just posted by Ruptly. I believe it shows one or two Armenian T-72 blown up -

      Nagorno-Karabakh: Are Azerbaijani forces digging trenches along line of engagement?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2q_JRoZyzGk&nohtml5=False

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    4. ZoravarApril 16, 2016 at 3:54 AM

      Arevordi,

      The origin of that Ruptly video is from NewsFront (a Crimea based offshoot of Anna-News). The Smerch rocket Cassettes are evident in the video. her it is:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8CmJGmm-iA

      If you want more incriminating proof. Here is from RT's correspondent Murad Gazdiev: http://i.imgur.com/qKmpR9J.jpg

      It is almost impossible to find evidence of TOS usage as the round gets completely incinerated. There are no photos of T-90 usage yet. As for the Mi-24. Military enthusiasts that I know and trust are confirming that it is indeed a modified one.

      I invite you to keep an eye on lostarmour.info website. They have added a Karabagh page: http://lostarmour.info/karabakh/

      You must click on the blue "Show" button to see everything on that page. They document only the losses that have a photo or video proof.

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    5. ArevordiApril 16, 2016 at 4:03 AM

      Zoravar,

      I'm beginning to doubt whether we destroyed more than one or maybe two Azeri tanks in the fighting. I'm seeing a lot of scripted talk about knocking out Azeri tanks by nervous young men on the front, but I see no pictures, no videos, no forensic evidence. If we had indeed knocked out or disabled more than a couple of dozen of their tanks as we are told, we would have already seen at least some of their wreckage in the fields. I want to see the wreckage of a T-90 before I believe what the defense ministry is saying.

      I am no expert but I do not see any craters or burnt out impact sites that would suggest TOS-1 or Smerches were used. I did however see a lot of what looked like bits and pieces of sheet metal that were not mangled or burnt.

      I don't know how reliable a military "enthusiast" could be in helicopter forensics. I want to know if the helicopter that was shot down was the newly purchased Mi-35. Please let me know if you find out anything else about the helicopter our side shot down. I also think we only shot down one and not two of their helicopters.

      I am satisfied with the spirit with which Armenians reacted to this incursion by Azerbaijan and I am impressed by the efficiency with which our side repelled their attack, but I think this battle revealed some of our technical and tactical flaws. This five day battle therefore cannot be categorized as a one-sided victory for us. Besides the one hundred dead and the mountain we lost, having fourteen tanks knocked out in a couple of days is a very serious matter. Having unmanned drones infest the skies over Artsakh (even if we did shoot down a lot of them) is a very serious matter. Also, it's obvious that our side is grossly exaggerating the number of dead Azeris. I suspect two-three hundred Azeris died, at most.

      Seeing that they were able to draw some blood and take a little piece of land, and begin that they seem very desperate, I fear Baku might try round two. Our side better start taking some initiatives.

      Anyway, please let us know what you find out about the Russian weapons systems that were actually used in this fight. I want conclusive proof that Mi-35s, T-90s, Smerchs and TOS-1 were used in the Azeri attack. I want to know because I am beginning to suspect that a game being played.

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    6. ArevordiApril 18, 2016 at 4:51 AM

      Zoravar,

      To cover its incompetence and deflect blame, I think Yerevan put out some disinformation (aimed at Russia) during the four day war. One such disinformation has already been debunked: The Azeri helicopter that was shot-down on the first day was not the recently delivered Mi-35 but a Mi-24G modified in Ukraine and South Africa -

      Defense Ministry releases evidence: http://armenpress.am/eng/news/843805/defense-ministry-releases-evidence-azerbaijan-planned-large-scale-military-operations.html

      PS: I still want to see conclusive proof that T-90s, Smerches and TOS-1s were used in the Azeri attack.

      Delete
  3. Arto2April 15, 2016 at 8:53 PM

    The placement of Russian peacekeepers worries me. Artsakh has proven that it is capable of defending it's borders and civilians therefore the so-called peacekeepers would only be used if Armenia was forced to give up its strategic advantage. So what happens in a post-Putin Russia if the deeply entrenched Russian 5th column coup decides to remove them or favor Azerbaijan for energy or transport deals? Is it fair to leave the Artsakhtsi with that situation again? How many times does this have to happen before we learn from it? This latest military failure on Azerbaijan's part places all the cards in our hands, and no one knows this bettrr than our military and political leadership. If they succumb to giving up their strategic advantage it won't be due to timidity, but rather to Russian pressure since Russia tends to have Armenia on a tight leash.

    Furthermore, Armenia's security should not depend on Armenian lobbying. This is not the US. Armenia is a vital strategic asset for Russia. Without Armenia, the western-israeli-turkish influence would pentrate deep into Kazakhstan. We have already seen their president show his ugly turkish face. He is playing with Russia and EEU for opportunistic reasons but if the tide were to turn in favor of pan Turkish influence he and all the other stans would jump ship faster than you can say "F... Russia". And let's not forget the 15 million turks living within Russia. All of their nuclear weapons would be useless in their disintegrating neighborhood and society. I won't even go into the millions of ethnic turks in China bordering Kazakhstan. I don't believe Armenia should be lobbyin for Russian support, it should be a given. And if Russia forces Armenia's hand at giving up strategic advantage then something is deeply flawed in the Russian strategic planning that no amount of Armenian lobbying would help fix.

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  4. aaaApril 15, 2016 at 9:24 PM

    Those minions in authority speaking on behalf of Russian bureaucracy, stating the continued flow of arms to the the turks is Moscow's policy, coming at a critical time--a war going on-- were at best disingenuous idiots or at worst a demonstration of execrable diplomacy. You have your "strategic partner's sons dying on the battlefield, and you have the callousness of telling your partner you'll keep arming the killers of your sons no matter what. Armenia we may have its chobans ; it seems Russia have their own crew of kholjotzner handling state policies. Moscow did indeed Fxxx up, and one has to be a gregarious imbecile if they think this kind of conduct would earn them the heart and minds of the citizenry. The military is creating a frame of mind that the ceasefire should not have been accepted by Sarkissian, before the conclusion of a successful counterattack-- assessment by intelligence services-- which would have yielded additional territoy and an enlargement of the contact line in our favor. The military should know more than than man Sarkissian; but again it is unfair to single out Sarkissian as if he were the one making all the decisions. Sarkissian is surrounded by a team of advisers and consultants in policy. He may be,or may not be a timid man, but his stance and demeanour is a reflection of the team at the head of the leadership. Important lessons must have been learnt after the latest clash of arms. The question should always be what and how are we going to respond in the next round, which would surely come as the change of seasons. Unfortunately we are boxed in a disquieting corner. We have a strategic ally whose strategic conduct is yet to be tested in a real crisis. Regretfully we do not have other options other than make the most out of this alliance. On a note aside, the Armenian government may be suffused with western yes men , and strong influences. We must not forget that Russia finds itself in a similar situation. There are fifth columnist that are making Putin's life problematical. Finally Armenian membership of the Eurasian confraternity does not mean she should expect aid and assistance from that predominately muslim union. Kazkhs Nazebayev is unfriendly towards armenia and one of leaders in supporting Alyev on his claim to Artsaj.

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  5. ArevordiApril 16, 2016 at 3:52 AM

    Arto2 and aaa,

    I realize both of you wrote your comments before you read my latest blog commentary. Please read it and see if things make more sense to you then. I want to know if you understand, not if you agree.

    Realize that everything in life - from business to marriage to family to friendship - boils down to relationships, and it all requires a lot of hard work. It's the same with politics. Political systems are made of people, not robots. Getting in touch with them, getting to know them, having them get to know you, inviting them to your country for seminars, showering them with gifts, filling their wallets, going on vacations together, getting drunk together, going to whores together, etc. This is what "lobbying" is all about, and it's the same everywhere. And if your nation's interests compliments their nation's interests, the effort becomes all the more easier. It's all done to establish a footprint in a given political system. Jews are the masters of this.

    That said, saying Russia will abandon Armenia and invite pan-Turkish into the region is fundamentally wrong. Such scare tactics are being disseminated by Western agents. The only contentious issue here is the placement of Russian troops in the region and the ultimate fate of the territories outside of Artsakh proper. This is where lobbying Moscow on one hand and making all know, including Moscow, that we will fight for Artsakh on the other hand will ultimately determine the nature of future negotiations and the parameters of the conflict's resolution.

    We need to stop looking at politics from a narrow, ethnic and emotional angle. We need to better understand superpower politics to be able to better navigate its perils. Major powers do not think along the lines of, "our precious boys are dying because of politics". How many precious Americans, Brits, French and Russians have been sent and continue being sent to their deaths in foreign wars by their governments - merely for politics? Claiming "Armenia is too small" is a moot point. From a major power standpoint, if a nation cannot handle politics (which means fighting and dying and political intrigue) that nation does not deserve statehood.

    The post-Soviet paradigm is changing. The world is changing. We are in the big leagues now. Even worst, we are in the south Caucasus. Can we handle the challenges? I can only hope. We are vividly seeing some of the geopolitical and cultural/genetic reasons why we have seldom been successful in maintaining statehood for long periods of time. We are seeing some of the character flaws (from our leadership down to peasantry) that continues to hinder the process of building a successful nation-state.

    Speaking of character flaws: How dare Armenian officials, who have hidden billions of dollars in foreign bank, accounts complain that Russia is not giving Armenia "free" weapons? How is it that Armenia's and Artsakh's first line of defense is protected by tin cans strung on wires, as officials in Armenia stack billions of dollars in foreign bank accounts? Russia has been arming us to the tune of billions of dollars - as our officials have been robbing us to the tune of billions of dollars. And when Russians act stern with us, our officials run off to Western capitols...

    Yerevan thinks it can hide behind anti-Russian sentiments in the country. Allowing Western mercenaries a free hand so as to scare Moscow is going to hurt us someday. It probably already is.

    I have always said that had it not been for the Western-led political opposition, which poses much more of a threat to Armenia, I would have been vehemently against the current crooks in office. Our nation is stuck between Western mercenaries and illiterate thieves. This is why I sometime feel it's better to simply become part of the Russian federation.

    PS: I feel there is another, perhaps larger test coming not too far down the road. I think this year will see the resolution of the conflict in Artsakh - one way or another.

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    1. aaaApril 16, 2016 at 7:04 PM

      I was paging through Lragir press. This paper can not even be used to wrap up garbage. I can't believe the emetic editorials and articles spewed forth by these sick writers. Seems to come straight from Washington DC. There is another opereta going on in parliament by someone having introduced a draft to secede from the EEu. Just like that. I am of the opinion the military needs to take over the country in moments of crisis. We can not have these bucolic parliamentarians acting like kindergarten brats. In my view all those officials that have siphon off funds ,in the tax heavens , must be made, by legislation, to return all deposits back home. As a matter of justice meted out, the guilty party should be indicted and punished to the maximum sentences of the law. Let them rot in jail, or even better send them to man the contact lines.

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    2. GevApril 16, 2016 at 8:43 PM

      It's all very confusing.....what games are being played behind the scenes....i have been reading how Iran is massing soldiers on the borders with Turkey.....and Russia beefing up its base in Armenia.....Could it be Iran and Russia want to destroy turkey with Kurds? & Armenia will be used against Azeris? Also with the recent escalation in Karabakh...our military leaders don't seem very confident from interviews...i remember Seyran Ohanyan talking big before so was a few other people...not anymore?

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    3. ArevordiApril 17, 2016 at 8:34 AM

      My apologies. I forgot to mention perhaps the single most important lobbying method in all of history: Marriage! Being married to high level officials to be exact. This method opens the doors to all the other methods. This method creates political dynasties. Jews have been the undisputed masters of this method throughout human history. From biblical times to today. Look at prominent men in the Christian world, chances are you'll find a Jewess next to him. Look at Armenia: Levon Petrosian's wife is a Jewess; Paruyr Hayrikyan's wife is a Jewess; Ara Abrahamyan's wife is a Jewess; Alex Arzumanyan's wife is a Jewess. There are a few more who's name escapes me at this time.

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    4. EurasianApril 19, 2016 at 1:23 AM

      Is there any evidence that Yerevan or perhaps Moscow is behind some of the NGOs in order to make them seem ridiculous? A fair number of the pro-Western activists inside Russia totally discredit the West, so why not do the same thing inside Armenia?

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  6. AnonymousApril 16, 2016 at 5:37 PM

    Emir Kusturica

    Serbian Filmmaker Calls Out Jew Soros as Lead Force Behind the “Migrant Crisis”
    http://www.dailystormer.com/serbian-filmmaker-calls-out-jew-soros-as-lead-force-behind-the-migrant-crisis/

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    1. ArevordiApril 17, 2016 at 5:34 AM

      This from Sputnik is related -

      #PanamaPapers: Role Soros Played in Biggest Leak in History: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160413/1037945827/soros-panamapapers-europe.html#ixzz460pZ4gUi

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    2. AnonymousApril 17, 2016 at 12:04 PM

      The western press has tried its best to link this Panama Papers scandal to President Putin, and failed miserably and further discredited itself in the process. People everywhere are making fun of the increasingly ridiculous lies that the west is churning out about Putin. I used to say soon enough they will print headlines "Putin Murders Puppies." Someone posted the following picture to mock the type of silly and hysterical headlines western media creates about Putin. Of course given how utterly retarded Evangelicals are, I suspect quite a few would be willing to believe the headline as true, no need to actually read the article:

      https://dsbbsuploads.s3.amazonaws.com/original/3X/5/2/52e6d4db2084ec6ed24dec62a261f21a7e6d1bce.jpg

      Below is an example of a real scandal, but for some odd reason the media never mentions it:

      $700 billion is nothing
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM79QpaxvOs

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    3. AnonymousApril 18, 2016 at 5:55 PM

      Daily Stormer is a pretty good website. The publisher (Anglin) often makes geopolitically rational points that other WN's are way too blind, stupid, and extreme to ever comprehend. Even though they are approaching the topic from a different base, they end up reaching the same basic, universal truth that we cover here, which is that Russia is the last hope for European civilization and Orthodox Christianity in the face of the American and Jewish agenda for global domination and their Islamist cohorts. Of course I don't agree with everything published, but then again that's true of all publications. And the comments section sometimes attracts illiterates, extremists, and hillbillies; Ukrainian shills get banned pretty quick though. I recommend this website, especially considering we share the race views on race; at the very least reading their articles on the total destruction of the west makes me thankful that Armenia safely in the Russian sphere. Also, the humor and sarcasm are seriously top notch, assuming you're not too old, hoparik ;)


      Look at the way this article ends, for example, how many "Nazis" post maps of the Warsaw Pact as an ideal situation:

      http://www.dailystormer.com/hungary-orban-says-eu-is-destroying-europe-with-hajis/

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  7. AnonymousApril 16, 2016 at 8:58 PM

    Another excellent summery Arevordi. With that said, what are your 2 cents on Iran's perspective of the current situation in Artsakh? I follow PressTv often, and I would get frustrated seeing plenty of typical comments constantly framing the fighting as another 'Christian versus Muslim' conflict. I understand Iran has to cater to its large northern Azeri population, although I have heard that those are not Turkic Azeris, and that Iran leaning favorably towards Armenia could cause domestic disturbance in their Islamic Nation. There are far too many Iranians (and Armenians/Orthodox Christians) who fail to realize that this is a strictly racial conflict and that religion is used more for propaganda purposes. Iranians need to remember the deals Azerbaijan has made with Israel to allow itself to be a launchpad for strikes towards Iran, whenever the apartheid state calls their number.

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    1. ArevordiApril 17, 2016 at 6:12 AM

      Thank you for reading, Sean.

      Iran is a very good neighbor and a potential partner. But, in my opinion, Tehran cannot be trusted. Like Russians, Iranians also have a highly sophisticated diplomatic corps. But unlike Russians, Iranians are part and parcel of the Islamic world and they also have expansionist tendencies. Culturally, Iranians have more in common with Azeris than us Armenians. Islamic peoples can find common language, especially Azeris and Persians who share the same civilization. Although Armenians complain that Russia has had good trade relations with Ankara and Baku, they fail to notice that Tehran has even better trade relations with Ankara and Baku. Trust me, if push comes to shove, Iran will come to an understanding with Azeris at our expense.

      Iranian officials cant even get themselves to appear at the genocide memorial complex in Yerevan, but EVERY SINGLE Russian officials that has visited Armenia has.

      At least Russia wants to stop the Caucasus from becoming a hotbed of Turkic and Islamic activist. We Armenians are culturally closer to Russia (Christianity, shared Soviet traditions, two millions Armenians in Russia, etc) and we fit into Moscow geostrategic calculus. In fact, we ONLY fit into Moscow geostrategic calculus, which is why Moscow will not hesitate to send troops to fight and die for Armenia if the country was in danger.

      While Tehran will remain friendly towards Armenians, those of us who are having wet-dreams about Tehran becoming a "strategic partner" with Armenia will be very disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I am very pro-Iran. I think Armenians and Iranians can be allies. But I also know that Tehran will NEVER help Armenia in the way for example it helps Lebanon's Hezbollah or Syria's Alawites. In other words: Tehran will NEVER help Armenia in the way Moscow helps Armenia.

      In the big picture: Tehran would of course prefer to have an Armenia in the south Caucus as a hedge against Azeri nationalism, but it would prefer to have Russia pick up the tab for Armenia.

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    2. AnonymousApril 17, 2016 at 9:25 AM

      Merci for replying.. I am aware of Iranian diplomats and officials being no where in sight during Genocide festivities. Again, it's that damn 'islam factor'.. But even in the case of religion, Armenians can play the Zoroastrian 'card' to strengthen ties with Iran, and the 'Aryan card' in the case of race.

      Iran must have noticed the number of Armenians fighting alongside the Syrian Arab Army and Hezbollah (if not even within) all awhile Azeri dogs have been instead lining up to join the Western backed mercenary boogeyman ISIL/IS.. Azerbaijan painting itself as a Shia nation (85%) should mean nothing to Iran, similar to how Saudi scum call themselves Sunni, yet never lift a finger in defense of Sunni Palestinians.

      I sense for years now you have stressed the importance of Armenians lobbying in Moscow rather than wasting their energies with Washington, but if you may, please elaborate efforts made with Tehran..

      Artificial abomination Azerbaijan remains the key obstacle for a Russian - Armenian - Iranian alliance in the region.

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    3. aaaApril 18, 2016 at 4:52 AM

      A protest, and stone throwing in front of Russian embassy in Yerevan. All placards in english language, decrying Russia, and demanding an exist to the Russian occupation. These protesters are imbeciles, or part of a jewish NGO rent a crowd. The fact they are able to organize such a protest it reveals the extent of fifth columnist in the country.

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    4. AnonymousApril 18, 2016 at 7:22 PM

      Sean, are you by any chance a Parskahay? I ask because you seem to have a predisposition to seeing Iran and Armenia as natural allies, and I have noticed this is a general trend and perception issue among Parskahays.

      I don't hate Iran, but I recognize Iran exactly for what it is: a large regional power which fancies itself as the natural, God-given overload of the primitive South (and North) Caucasus region and master over its small, primitive populations, including Armenians. Had Russia not crushed Islamic Iran in the 1800s and expelled them from the Caucasus, Yerevan and Artsakh would just be Muslim-majority Iranian khanates. Trust me when I say that Iranians look at Armenians as nothing more than an Iranian tribe that needs to be brought back under the Iranian yoke. Iranians see themselves as masters, and Iranians certainly do not see Armenians as equals. Iranians do not really attempt to hide these feelings either. Iranians are confident when dealing with Armenia, because Iranian experience with Armenians comes largely from dealing with Parskahays, which as a group is like a domesticated poodle, subservient: you can let them live in your house and sometimes bark, but they damn well know their place. Parskahays like to delude themselves (perhaps an evolution based on historic necessity) that "Persians love us, bro!" and "Iran has Armenia's back 100%, bro" but the fact of the matter is that Iranians tolerate Armenians in Iran because Armenians are subservient and demographically non-threatening; if Parskahays ever were in a position where they could gain real power in Iran, Persians would crush them mercilessly.

      As Arevordi said, Iran is a Muslim state, first and foremost. That is the fact, despite what fantasies Parskahays and other Armenians may entertain. Saying Iran is Aryan is like saying Armenia is Aryan: that is ancient history and far from today's reality. Armenians resemble gypsys in their behavior, while Iranians are thoroughly Arabized in behavior and appearance. And Zoroastrianism is as irrelevant to Armenian and Iranian geopolitics, just like shared Orthodox Christian heritage is irrelevant regarding Georgia. Iran and Armenia parted ways beginning with the Armenian conversion to Christianity in 301, and finalizing with the Islamic conquest of Iran in the 630s. 1400 years is a long time to separate and take divergent paths. Plus, even when both were Zoroastrian, their history largely consisted of Iran invading and occupying Armenia on a regular basis. I speculate that if the Mongols and later the Russians had not defeated Iran, they would have kept right on invading Armenia.

      Iran serves a useful, even friendly role right now, but that is mainly due to fear of Russia, not respect for Armenia/Armenians. It's not for nothing that Russian soldiers guard Armenia's borders with Turkey AND with Iran. Otherwise, Iranians are an imperialist power at Armenia's door, with historical claims on our country, with an arrogant view of Armenians as their lost subjects, and Iranians are very diligent and crafty in pressing their interests (Arto can elaborate.) Iran has never really gotten over being beaten to Russia and forced to sign the Treaties of Gulistan and Turkmenchai.

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    5. EurasianApril 19, 2016 at 5:31 AM

      Does anyone know if the Azeris in Iran are similar in language and racial/Turkic identity in their thinking to those in AZ proper? For that matter, are there internal divisions inside AZ that make it possible to try to hope to split the country if things get ugly? As an example, how do Armenians get treated if they visit a place like Tabriz or Ardebil? Do the locals think Armenians did the Azeris wrong?

      Sean,

      You may be right about "Artificial abomination Azerbaijan remains the key obstacle for a Russian - Armenian - Iranian alliance in the region.", but how do you get from point A to point B? All three of those countries seem fairly cautious in their dealings with AZ, so, barring an economic collapse, how could things change?

      Delete
    6. SeanApril 20, 2016 at 4:11 PM

      Sarkis86

      No, I'm not parskahye, but you summed it up pretty well. I would also add that I noticed a higher divorce trend in parskahye families a while back in SoCal.. I don't have an Iran infatuation, but I do strongly believe that Russia & Iran need one another very much and shouldn't allow ego and pride to ruin developing bonds/ties as we are inching closer to a possible third world war (Albert Pike)
      Islam, though in a way has shielded Iranians from Western degeneracy and decadence, is still a factor why Iran continues to flirt with Turkey and Azerbaijan, regardless of the fact that Turks are aiding terrorists who directly kill Iranian generals on the battlefield in Syria..

      Eurasian

      In a perfect world, Armenia/Iran/Russia would conquer and split Azerbaijan into 3, dissolving the artificial Zionist base in the region. No more Pan Turkic threat, no more NATO threat, no more Israel threat.

      Arevordi, and everyone else

      Check out this recap SouthFront did on the Artsakh situation, they even mention Armenia's Western ass sucking media causing friction/confusion

      International Military Review & Analysis – Studying escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EizHdJVC0A

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    7. Arto2April 24, 2016 at 5:15 PM

      Recently the topic of Iran's alliance with Armenia came up on this blog. Besides the religious incompatibility, here's the major elephant in the room.

      http://groong.org/news/msg571242.html

      20 million plus Azeris living in Iran occupying important positions in clergy and govt. They are inherently anti-Armenian and always have been. Only ones who don't see this are the dumbed down Barskahyes from Tehran. These are the ones who'll constantly play Persian music at their gatherings, pay hundreds of dollars to see a talentless Iranian musician perform in Las Vegas and will ridicule a classically trained singer/musicians from Armenia when they perform a $20 concert in a rented hall in Glendale, or ridicule anything and anyone from Armenia for that matter while they glorify and kiss the assignment of Iranians.

      The other question brought up was whether it would be possible to split up Azerbaijan into its constituent ethnic groups with the help of Iran. I think the problem is the other way around. It is Iran that is under attack from the Turko-Israeli axis and is in danger of being split up. There has been a covert attempt to incite the ethnic Azeris in Iran to independence. This is a real threat. Even if they don't fully succeed, they will force the Iranian govt to appease the local Turks by being more anti-Armenian.

      My personal belief -bottom line, Azerbaijan will never be brought into Russian orbit. Even if they do it'll be short-lived until the next time Russia shows cracks in its armor. Azerbaijan is a thorn in the ass of Armenia, Iran and Russia and serves the destructive ambitions of Turkey, Israel and Nato. The only long term solution is the destruction and dissolution of that state as it stands.

      Delete
  8. AnonymousApril 17, 2016 at 10:16 PM

    What's Israel's Role in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict?
    http://sputniknews.com/military/20160417/1038168379/karabakh-israel-role-analysis.html

    Compare the above front-page article from a major Russian media source, which is pretty anti-Israel and anti-Azerbaijan, to the kind of trash being published by "pro-Armenian" westerners like Anglo faggot Robert Fisk. After Turks themselves, kikes have always been the most anti-Armenian race. All of the so-called "Armenians" today who bend over for Jews are as despicable as the Armenians who bent/bend over to Turks.

    On the one hand the anti-Armenian activity of world Jewry angers me, on the other hand I feel very at ease because I am confident that no matter how the world develops, kikes everywhere are so hated (by groups much larger and much more prone to violence) that the their future is guaranteed to be very bleak.

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    1. AraApril 19, 2016 at 1:14 AM

      Robert Fisk is a Judaic. His venomous pen when it comes to Nagorno Karabakh is relentless. Fisk is one of the main western promoters, through his commentaries, of the fictional " Khojalu" massacre. The philosemite empathy, in general, of Armenians is, it could be said, ingrained.It may have to do with the indoctrination culture, which the West has been subjected, (with furious angst and animus from 1960) since the turn of the XX century, of worship the judaic. Cliche phrases in every narrative of our tragic past is inescapably interlaced with voluminous references to the Judaic experience in the second WW. Our own learned scribes and journalists are guilty of this. It could be an unspoken dictum of a sequitur that mention of the Armenian genocide has to end with the holocaust. This subtle historical nuance, however is not reciprocated. Reading about the 2WW one is assuming the Judaic factor was the central theme, and the war itself a point of detail of the Judaic narration. The period between 1939-1945 is all about the Judaic story, the war itself just a detail of the story. There is a plinth in Yerevan, inaugurated by the judaic wife of Bedrosian, during his mandate, in honor to the 6M. Is there something of the kind in Tel Aviv , Jerusalem, or Jaiffa in memoriam of the 1915 catastrophe. No. What you get in Jerusalem is Armenian priests being spat at by rabid Jeshiva students from the rabbinical colleges.

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    2. Romanian AnonymusApril 21, 2016 at 4:25 PM

      @Reading about the 2WW one is assuming the Judaic factor was the central theme, and the war itself a point of detail of the Judaic narration.

      This is a remarkable observation. It should be followed through and understand that the for the West the whole history of Mankind is just a footnote for the Judaic narration. Any historical event is viewed through Judaically colored glasses.

      Take Russia's case. The West was brought to the point where it simply cannot understand that Russia, Russians are entities in themselves with their own autonomous life. And that not since yesterday. At about 1870 Dostoevsky was summarizing this attitude through the words of a character in his novel "The Adolescent", Mr. Kraft (not surprisingly a German pretending to be Russian):

      “Mr. Kraft… has arrived at a rather extraordinary conclusion, which has surprised everybody. He has deduced that the Russian people are second-rate people… whose fates is to serve merely as material for a more noble race, and not to have its own independent role in the destinies of mankind. In view of this possibly correct deduction of his, Mr. Kraft has come to the conclusion that any further activity of any Russian man should be paralyzed by this idea, so to speak, that everyone should drop their hands…”

      I would think that this attitude is, at least partially, at the bottom of the relentless anti-Russian Western campaigns. I would not call it 'Russophobia' (an irrational dislike of Russians) because it is, on the contrary, a very rational, deliberate campaign of falsification of Russian character, history, culture, politics, carried on by skilled liars. Most people continue to think of Russia as the Soviet Union, moreover as the Soviet Union of the Comintern, when it was conceived just as the pool of natural and human resources from where to extract the means to carry on the World Revolution led by the Judaics.

      The idea that Russia could possibly have her own national interests was (and is) anathema. As is the idea that Russia fought for herself in WW2 and not for the Jews. It exposes the lie of the 'holocaust' narrative. It explains why the thwarting of the Judaics plans in Ukraine and Caucasus is met with uncontrollable rage.
      It is hard not to share Arevordi's unease at the surrender of Armenians to Western propaganda. Romanians behave the same (they have the excuse that the "West" is not something far away, but it always was next door and then in the room).

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    3. JerrikoApril 26, 2016 at 8:19 AM

      The Russian smash up of Zionist plans for Ukraine and the Caucasus pretty much wrecked "Project Khazaria 2.0", and let us not forget that the old Khazar Khaganate also controlled bits of what is now Western Kazakhstan.

      The image of Russia as a stereotypical communist nation, even when it isn't a communist nation anymore, can be attributed to how the West controls the education system of non-Western nations, or rather, still influences the education system of non-Western nations. It is this kind of negative influence that prevents both Western and non-Western nations from cultivating a healthy relationship with Russia.

      Speaking of education systems, it is a bit noteworthy that the Western educational system in itself has not only declined, but has been thoroughly corrupted by Marxists. These days, you may find on certain Youtube videos talking about "Social Justice" courses being offered in post-secondary institutions that teach not only Social Justice BS, but about Cultural Marxism, Critical Theory, and Psychoanalysis. Those things are even integrated into subjects like English, History, Psychology, and etc. I know, since I had to learn about psychoanalysis and Marxism and applying it to literary criticism for one of my classes. It is bad, and to think that there might be Armenians who would be seduced by Western education, long enough for them to swallow SJW crap. Social Justice activism is what's wrong with all of the nations today, and there will be a point where the sane-minded conservatives will explode and say enough.

      Russia had already experimented with SJ crap during the early years of the Bolshevik period (Trotskyism), and Stalin had the sense to smash those proto-SJWs through the purges. Let us hope that Putin eliminates the rest of the SJWs that continue to dominate the Russian government. Let us also hope that the leaders of anti-Rothschild nations also grow a pair of balls and purge SJWs from their government.

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  9. AnonymousApril 18, 2016 at 5:28 PM

    Arevordi, it is increasingly becoming clearer that we are reliving World War I. The opposing alliances are in place, global conflict is inevitable, and the old order will be destroyed. Just like 1914, we Armenians have not had it this good in 1,000 years. And just like World War I, we Armenians have won some early skirmishes and battles... I dread continuing to draw parallels because we all know what happened as World War One dragged on, and the shortcomings inherent in Armenians kicked in. Last time tt resulted in two-thirds of Armenians being exterminated, something like 90% of historical Armenia becoming thoroughly devoid of Armenians, and irreversible genetic and cultural obliteration. Looking at the nation today, I'd say the odds of another catastrophe are just too high.

    The events of this month have made me reevaluate the Sargsyan administration, and condemn it in general. Not because it is "too timid" against Azerbaijan (Armenia is in no position to conquer any additional territory) or because it includes many crooked people, but because its complimentary politics has done as much to ruin Armenia as anything else. This is an administration that has allowed Armenia to become dependent on the west and thus infiltrated by western agents and ideas. This is an administration that can't even prosecute a single western subversive that is organizing anti-Russian activities, because then the EU/US would retaliate by limiting access to the almighty federal reserve notes. I see now why you always say Armenia is like a rudderless ship, and why those who stand in the middle of the road will end up getting run over. If Armenia can pull through the coming turbulence retaining Armenia and (most of) Artsakh, it will probably be the best case scenario.

    Also, none of our nationalist nutjobs failed to notice; Armenia's victories against Azerbaijan owe as great a debt to Azeri incompetence as anything else. I shudder to think how Armenia would fair against competent enemies. This isn't ancient or medieval times, "fedayees" won't save a tiny, desolate nation against an army of hundreds of millions of Turks, Islamists, and western/israeli mercenaries.

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  10. BigDikranApril 18, 2016 at 6:46 PM

    Great Article as always, i was waiting since day one for the article!
    i have one thing to mention, if we want as a permanent solution for our problems, we need to increase our fertility in Armenia! Imagine if we were 20 million or 30 million population in Armenia! the solutions will come to you! plus we need to profit from Diaspora! thank you again & hatchoghoutioun!

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    1. ArevordiApril 19, 2016 at 5:28 AM

      Thank you for reading, BigDikran.

      More babies will solve a serious problem that we Armenians have always faced: Low numbers. But we are not a third world people, and we normally don't have more than one or two children if the economic situation is not good. We therefore won't be able to compete with Arabs, Turks or Muslims in general. That said, for more Armenian babies to be born, the economic situation in Armenia has to improve. For the economic situation in Armenia to improve, the political situation in the south Caucasus needs to improve. For the political situation in the south Caucasus to improve, the region needs Pax Russicana. In other words: The tug-of-war between major powers in the Caucasus has to end with a Russian victory. Russia has to win because a weak Russia in the region means a powerful Turkic/Islamic factor in the region. Armenia cannot survive the region without a powerful Russian presence in the region. Therefore, whether we love Russia or hate Russia, we all have to pray for Russia. For the foreseeable future, Armenia will remain within Russia's orbit. I suggest we make the best of it. Living as an independent nation under Russian protection is a historic opportunity for us to straighten Armenia economically and militarily, and make more babies in the process. Whether Armenians can manage all this is altogether another topic for discussion.

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  11. ArevordiApril 19, 2016 at 4:53 PM

    Official Yerevan is like a rudderless boat drifting aimlessly into a storm. Because Armenia's leadership is corrupt, incompetent and shortsighted, they tend to hide behind things to protect themselves when things get difficult for them. When things are bad with Western powers, they run and hide behind Moscow. When things gets though with Moscow, they run and hide behind Western powers. There is no political foresight or strategic planning in Yerevan today. Simply put: Yerevan does its best to go with the flow and merely survive. And the current flow is currently against Russia, essentially because Armenians are simply unable to wrap their minds around why Moscow would sell arms to Baku - and Armenian officials are using the opportunity to hide their wrong doings.

    The truth of the matter is that Moscow has been providing our impoverished and blockaded country with billions of dollars worth of weapons systems - while Armenians officials (including military officials) have been stealing billions of dollars from the country and putting it money in Western banks.

    Consequently, Armenia's and Artsakh's border defenses lack modern monitoring devices essentially because Yerevan is mismanaging and misappropriating money (i.e. embezzling). And those who are embezzling the money are now the loudest voices complaining about the lack of arms deliveries from Moscow. Make no mistake about it, Russians officials see what's happening in Yerevan. In fact, Moscow has complained about Yerevan's irresponsibility on more than one occasion.

    To hide their corruption and incompetence, President Sargsyan's government today is therefore empowering Western sponsored agents in Armenia. It's meant to be a smokescreen as well as a hedge against Russia. And the Western agents that Yerevan is empowering are not wasting any time in spreading their poison and further brainwashing the Armenian sheeple. By knowingly afflicting itself with a dangerous toxin, official Yerevan is supposedly showing Moscow that it has "options".

    This kind of amateurish thinking in Yerevan is the reason why Armenia has not been able to effectively lobby Moscow and derive more benefits from its alliance with Russia. The kind of atmosphere created in Armenia through these types of shenanigans is the reason why Armenia is stuck in the middle and going no where. Due to Yerevan "complimentary politics" Moscow is not happy with Yerevan, the West is not happy with Yerevan.

    The kind of atmosphere thus created in Armenia is not conducive to effectively lobbying Moscow or for strategic planning. If this dangerous game continues or gets out of control, the only thing Yerevan will end up accomplishing is the loss of Artsakh. Afterwards, we will all blame Russians to cover our stupidity and make ourselves feel better.

    Speaking of Western agents: It is very unfortunate that the following three assholes are Armenians -

    The Exchange: Garry Kasparov forecasts bloody regime change in Russia: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/01/20/the-exchange-garry-kasparov-forecasts-bloody-regime-change-in-russia/

    Ռուսներ դուք սրիկա եք և պիտի ռադ լինեք Հայաստանից Պարույր Հայրիկյան: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HImXVP3r5bM

    Ռուսաստանը վերմակն իր վրա է փորձում քաշել և միայնակ զբաղվել ԼՂ հակամարտությամբ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38DL_tTaVDU

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    1. ManushApril 20, 2016 at 4:07 PM

      There are dangerous people, or deracinated multiculturalist operatives among those of half armenian background. I never considered Kasparov as an armenian, even though his mother is one. In one of his fleeting visit to Bs.As., the man visited the Juden community and met with rabbis. He did not set foot in any of the armenian institutions. Another one is this guiragossian, another half cupper , a deracinated pen writer , unfriendly to Armenia and a globalist multicuturalist tool. There are many , many others like these two mixed up characters . The lobbying efforts in the RF by Armenia is puzzling, it is strange.There are 2m in Russia, yet we don't have any representatives in the Duma. We have to rely on Zhirinovsky to fight the cause for Armenia. The lobbying resources in the USA are equally deficient. There are about 1M, over there, yet we do not have meaningful representation in the senate or as congressmen . Again we have to rely on the jewish paid up congressmen for our voices to be heard. The Armenian factor in the RF needs urgent addressing; and the illusion that Armenians have geopolitical options forthright dispelled. The administration uses the fiction of "options" outside Russia in order to disguise our difficult situation.

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    2. Longtime readerApril 20, 2016 at 10:34 PM

      Arevordi, we understand the game they are playing, we are pro russia, but we cant accept giving turkbejanis any kind of territory in exchange for peace. How can we trust them anyway what if 5 years from now they want more lands? They already have nakhichevan and shahumyan, to many people died for those lands. Our politicians are crooks and they have the right to just give away anything. This stuff is really upsetting for me.

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    3. ArevordiApril 20, 2016 at 11:27 PM

      Long ago Western powers realized that when dealing with an uncooperative or hostile political system overseas, it was easier/better to concentrate their efforts on the nation's sheeple. Thus was born Western psy-ops and propaganda. When governments don't cooperate with Western powers, they use their "news media" outlets and "political activists" to encourage the sheeple to take to the streets in protest.

      And despite Armenian pride and arrogance, Armenians remains one of the world's most easily mislead sheeple.

      The power of Western propaganda in Armenia is so great (largely thanks to Yerevan's complimentary politics) that Western assets planted throughout Armenian society can take any political matter and effortlessly spin it to fully fit their narrative - and the Armenian sheeple accept it as the truth.

      Example: Although we know that Western powers and their Turkic/Islamic allies are the ones causing serious trouble throughout the south Caucasus; although we know that the Caucasus region is one bad incident away from turning into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool; although we know that a Russian defeat in the south Caucasus will spell disaster for Armenia - almost ALL the talk we are hearing recently is about Russia "backstabbing" Armenia; Russia ordering Baku to attack Armenia; and about the need for Armenia to distance itself from Russia...

      Western propagandists are so pervasive in Armenian society (both in the homeland and in the Diaspora) that we see increasing numbers of Armenians promoting self-destructive and suicidal policies. The power of Western propaganda - coupled with the depth of political illiteracy and unbridled emotions among Armenians - will have serious repercussions for Armenia in the long run. I am therefore seriously concerned about Russophobia setting firm root inside Armenian society. Russophilia has traditionally kept Armenia/Armenians in the game in the Kremlin. Armenia/Armenians have been an integral part of the geostrategic calculus in the Kremlin, because Armenians have played a hands on role in the Kremlin for the past two hundred years. If we, due to our lack of rationality, political foresight and pragmatism, allow Russophobia to set root in Armenia, we will eventually lose Artsakh - at the very least.

      The following are among the better takes on the most recent conflict between Armenians and Azeris -

      Why Do Neo–Cold Warriors Want Another Proxy Fight With Russia?: http://www.thenation.com/article/why-do-neo-cold-warriors-want-another-proxy-fight-with-russia/

      International Military Review & Analysis – Studying escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EizHdJVC0A

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    4. ArevordiApril 20, 2016 at 11:37 PM

      Russian officials realize they are under attack on their flanks, and there seems to be an agenda to entrap Moscow in a major war. Moscow has been reacting against such plans in Ukraine and Syria. Part of Moscow's long term intent is to establish satellite states around it to act as buffers and to avoid a serious war on its southern, Turkic/Islamic frontier. Due to its geostrategic significance, the Caucasus therefore plays a very vital role for Moscow. Moscow has to pacify the region.

      It is therefore only natural that Moscow will try very hard to bring all three south Caucasus nations into its orbit. Armenia is already in. Moscow is currently working on Azerbaijan. Russian officials realize that once Azerbaijan is brought in as well, their work in Georgia will become much easier.

      For Western powers, Turkey and Israel, losing the south Caucasus will be a geostrategic disaster. They will therefore try to sabotage Moscow's plans for the region at every turn.

      It's now increasingly looking as if the clash that took place in Artsakh early this month was an attempt to sabotage Moscow's agenda. The culprits are obviously the Anglo-American-Jewish West and Turkey. They want to sabotage Moscow agenda. Look for them to now make a play our people's patriotic sentiments. While Western powers have been the biggest supporters of Baku, Western operatives inside Armenian society will be yelling, "not an inch of land to Baku".

      Yerevan may or many not have been made aware of impending attack by Azerbaijan while President Sargsyan was in Washington. But since Armenian officials (and Armenians in general) are against settling the conflict by ceding any amount of territory to Baku, Yerevan has been more than happy to allow its Western agents to cause an uproar in the country - simply because it serves as a canard.

      Growing alliance between Russia, Armenia troubling: US ads:
      http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/04/20/growing-alliance-between-russia-armenia-troubling-us-ads

      Russia senses opportunity in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:
      https://next.ft.com/content/3d485610-0572-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce

      No Quick Fix For Karabakh Conflict, Says Yerevan:
      http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27686827.html

      Russia’s Lavrov to be met with massive protest rally in Armenia:
      http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/210638/

      Armenians Protest Against Russian Arms Sales To Azerbaijan:
      http://www.rferl.org/content/armenia-protest-russian-arm-sales-to-azerbaijan/27673173.html

      Karabakh Challenges Armenian-Russian Alliance:
      https://iwpr.net/global-voices/karabakh-challenges-armenian-russian-alliance

      Armenia's Tough Neighborhood:
      http://www.weeklystandard.com/armenias-tough-neighborhood/article/2002033

      Why Do Neo–Cold Warriors Want Another Proxy Fight With Russia?:
      http://www.thenation.com/article/why-do-neo-cold-warriors-want-another-proxy-fight-with-russia/

      Russia-Armenia 2015 trade stands at $1.3 bln — ministry:
      http://tass.ru/en/economy/871032

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    5. ArevordiApril 21, 2016 at 3:26 AM

      With all that said, I am glad that there will be a protest in conjunction with FM Lavrov's visit to Armenia. Moscow must be made to understand that Armenians in the region will not give up any amount of land in Arttsakh without a fight, perhaps with the exception of eastern Aghdam. Yerevan must also make Moscow understand that Armenia will remain Russia's closest ally but it is also willing to defy its closest ally if Moscow expects Armenians to pullback from any of the liberated lands. Russians can station as many troops as they want in the region - I actually want them to place troops in Aghdam - but under no circumstances should Armenians withdraw from the liberated territories. Moscow should instead figure out a way to pressure on Baku and make Azeris understand that Artsakh will NEVER AGAIN be a part of Azerbaijan.

      My ONLY concern here is that Yerevan is giving Armenia's Western agents too much freedom in all this. I understand what Yerevan is trying to do, but I would have liked to see Yerevan "lobby" Armenian interests more effectively in Moscow instead. We should have been a permanent and persistent presence in the Kremlin, but we were not think along those lines because we were too busy kissing Western asses for handouts. Another concern is that anytime you unleash your Western mercenaries for one purpose or another, there is always the danger of unintended consequences.

      Anyway, it is what it is. This is the time for national unity and political foresight. The coming weeks and months has the potential to be historic. We all need to hope and pray, and also be ready for more bloodshed.

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    6. VahramApril 21, 2016 at 4:20 PM

      The web is being weaved.

      "There is obvious symbiosis between the interests of the US, NATO, and Turkey’s great-power policy on the «Grand Chessboard». Europe should anticipate a new stage in its discussions with Ankara, in which Turkey – satisfied with the resolution of the refugee issues, the financial assistance from the EU, and the abolition of visas – will demand recognition for its key role in resolving problems such as Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Iraq, Cyprus, and the Kurdish national movement."

      So Sarkisian going to Germany and groveling before the dyke makes some sense. Seems the Europeans are not just pro baboon, they are pro toork. This neoliberal shit has got to end soon. This will be the end of Europe before the end of Armenia.

      The link.

      Turkey: Neo-Ottomanism or Neo-Globalism? (II): http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/04/19/turkey-neo-ottomanism-or-neo-globalism-ii.html

      Moscow calculated wrong and got stung bad with the turks. Now the question is what is Moscow going to do about it? Will they arm Armenia to the teeth to revers the wrongs or will they just sit back and take it? Seems things have changed and changed hard, as the game plan did not come out quite as good, and the turk strung the bear in the ass. Very big questions lay ahead for Moscow.

      I am not seeing any more fighting or bloodshed coming up. My reasons are as follows.

      1. This was surprise attack, this element is no longer in play
      2. They lost too much.
      3. They lost too much too fast against just normal boarder guarding
      4. We have reinforced the forces on the front line and in depth.
      5. This has been a shock to the world. They have been talking about the baboon might for so long, drooling all over themselves. Cutting deals behind our backs and in front of our eyes in anticipation of this event that they all knew was coming. Yet what do they all have to show for it? Another black eye. After 25 years, the world got another black eye. For when the Armenian is awake, there ant shit you can do about it.

      Getze Hyastan!

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    7. KerkeshApril 21, 2016 at 7:51 PM

      There will not be peace, nor can there be peace. What is understood by peace ? The Turko-Azeri agenda does not allow for Armenia to exist, other than in a condition of an ottoman millet. Contemporary turko geopolitics strategies are for elimination, genocide or neutering of Armenia as a nation state. For peace to be reached in the context of what a peace is generally understood , the current geopolitical stance of Turkey and Azerbidjan via a vis Armenia needs to be turned on its head. That will not happen overnight, short of a fulminating war smashing both Turkeys. We will have a truce, akin to the one for the last 24 years, regularly interrupted by attack and counterattack. Russian peace keepers? It is not a solution. What peace are they going to keep? Nor has demonstrated its capacity to defend herself and keep the line of contact under control. If Russia enters Nkr, in any shape or form, they will stay and occupy NKR. Nkr geographical space, pivotal unassailable mountain redoubt, is too valuable for Russia to be given up. If this is the desired kind of peace, then you will have a longer lasting truce, perhaps. This is a potentially feasible politically charged move. Longer term strategy might dictate this course of action if at some stage or another a showdown for the Caucasus is played out. For peace to arrive ( the kind of Pollyanna peace which exists in fantasy land) the geography of Transcaucasia needs to be overhauled and new frontiers lines demarcated. The Kazan proposals (rejected by the azbd) are a defeatist and dishonorable basis for any negotiations to arrive at a closure of the war. Cession of land (Armenian lands), return of refugees (1m azbdj) , referendum on the status of NKR (at a later date, when the demographic sword of Damocles hanging over our heads finally falls, and the 1m refugees having multiplied). These are the conditions a victor imposes on the vanquished. New draft proposals are needed to supersede the archaic and past their shelve time Kazan and Madrid memorandums.

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    8. VahramApril 22, 2016 at 4:45 AM

      Kerkesh,

      Not sure if you were replying to me. What I am saying about bloodshed is in the near term. Longer term there is no peace with these fucks. Longer term, say 2 years from now you are going to have more issues in baboonistan, as well as Europe. No one likes what is happening in Europe and perhaps this is the beginning of the end of the neoliberal bullshit. The system is broken, and all they seem to do is add more stupid shit on top of stupid shit hoping things will revers.

      If you went to Europe 10 years ago everyone was painting faces blue and having orgies. This is not the same Europe any more, and there is a lot of hate.

      For the baboon, let me say it again.


      1. This was surprise attack, this element is no longer in play
      2. They lost too much.
      3. They lost too much too fast against just normal boarder guarding
      4. We have reinforced the forces on the front line and in depth.
      5. This has been a shock to the world. They have been talking about the baboon might for so long, drooling all over themselves. Cutting deals behind our backs and in front of our eyes in anticipation of this event that they all knew was coming. Yet what do they all have to show for it? Another black eye. After 25 years, the world got another black eye. For when the Armenian is awake, there ant shit you can do about it.

      Long or short term the baboon is finished. As is obvious their arms are not good enough. A sneak attack with all they had on a bunch of teen age boys failed. If they try something else near term Armenians are more than ready. If they make a foolish move even better!

      Delete
  12. AnonymousApril 19, 2016 at 10:42 PM

    Nationalists are usually extremist retards with an obsession with the past, and near-zero foresight for the future. Polish nationalists want to slaughter the remaining communists, but have a hard on for NATO and the EU. I am confident the EU will manage to fill Poland and its other eastern satrapies with ultraliberal values and mass-immigration in short order.

    ‘Red Army liberated us, that is a fact’: Polish city refuses to demolish Communist-era monument
    https://www.rt.com/news/340272-poland-war-monument-demolition/

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  13. LGApril 21, 2016 at 5:07 PM

    Arevordi jan, another great post!

    I did notice that in a few places you mention that Russian peacekeepers are a no go for both Armenian and azerbaijani side.

    I recently attended a lecture where ne of the speakers was the current NKR representative to USA, Robert Avetisyan. During Q&A he was asked if Stepanakert was opposed to peacekeepers, Russian or otherwise. He said no, they are not opposed but they need to see the proper steps taken to create the atmosphere for introducing peacekeepers. I think he was alluding to the fact that peacekeepers can't be brought to a zone where snipers are active, not to mention all the other armaments pointed at one another. I too had assumed that Armenia was opposed to any peacekeepers but I guess there is a nuance here we did not take into account.

    I share the same pessimistic outlook concerning another outbreak of fighting, maybe even full scale war. First, the aliyev regime is facing a mounting socio-economic problem. The manat has lost much of its value, food and other products are now more expensive. Oil prices will not return to 80 or 100 dollars a barrel anytime soon; Russia's economy will not expand soon either so we won't see a demand for unskilled laborers from the central asian states (including azerbaijan). Already 2 million or more azerbaijanis live and work in Russia. Several hundred thousand have made their way back to azerbaijan because there is no work in Russia for them. What are these idle young men supposed to do now? They either turn their attention against the regime which was again shown to be super corrupt (panama papers), become more religiously fanatical (daesh), or more nationalistic and clamor for war with Armenian 'occupiers'. And remember that azerbaijan hit peak oil 6 years ago. Their gas is not worth much either since that commodity is also in ample supply and trading at low prices. The fact that baku offered more and cheaper gas to georgia 2 months ago but the georgians still decided to develop a north-south energy corridor ought to speak volumes about what the expectations of georgian officials are in regards to their energy security.

    Also, I think erdogan believes his own shit. So we may very well see the turks encouraging baku to escalate the conflict. Once war breaks out turkey may get involved and set things up so that nato gets involved too. For example, consider a false flag operation being carried out against the btc pipeline by either azerbaijani or turkish secret services. They then blame it on Armenians, start a war, and turkey says that their energy security has been threatened by Armenian aggression against brotherly azerbaijan. Normally I would not think any high ranking politician of a regional power would be this brazen and reckless but after the downing of the Russian jet late last year, erdogan has shown himself to be a wildcard.

    I'm not concerned about Armenia fighting against azerbaijan and losing. So long as we remain united we will defeat them. What concerns me is whether officials in Yerevan will know how to win the peace after the fighting is done. And as you pointed out, the Sargsyan administration shouldn't allow so much russophobia to develop. They really need to tighten the screws on some ngos and media outlets. Not only because of the Russophobia, but because the psy-op campaign will devour Serj and company too if it's truly successful. So it is in their personal interest to do something. There is more to discuss but I'd like to get your perspective on what I have just written.

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    1. ArevordiApril 22, 2016 at 4:41 AM

      Welcome back LG,

      I'm glad you were at that lecture in Washington. A friend of mine was one of its organizers.

      After the downing of the Russian aircraft last November, I wouldn't put anything past Erdogan's government. Erdogan, like his counterpart in Baku, is psychotic. Your speculation is therefore plausible. All this is eerily similar to 1853, when Western powers joined Turks to battle against Russia because Russia was growing too large, too powerful and was getting too involved in the Middle East.

      These are historic times and the issues we face are extremely complex. I think there is a global storm looming in the not too distant horizon. The ultimate targets of this storm is Russia and of course Israel's enemies in the Middle East. It can therefore be said that Armenia is indirectly targeted as well. We will need national unity and political foresight to come out of this storm relatively unscathed. I have a feeling there will be more bloodshed in the south Caucasus.

      Azerbaijan is desperate. Turkey is desperate. Iran is desperate. Russia is desperate. Saudi Arabia is desperate. Western powers are desperate. They are all desperate for different reasons. Baku's money flow is fast drying up. Turkey has serious internal and external problems. Moscow is trying hard to secure its western and southern flanks from encroachment. Western powers are in decline and are trying to preserve their global hegemony. Israel is trying to remake the political landscape in the Middle East to suit its purpose. Iran and Saudi Arabia are preparing for a war against each other...

      We Armenians are stuck in the middle of this serious mess. We can't afford a war but we better be ready for one - that is if we see ourselves as being worthy of statehood.

      Yerevan and Stepanakert agree to the deployment of Russian peacekeeper "in theory" thus far. From what I know, Armenian officials will agree to Russian peacekeepers ONLY AFTER a comprehensive peace treaty has been reached and Artsakh's independence, or its unification with Armenia, has gotten official recognition. Russian troops will not be wanted before any of that takes place. The reason? Bad memories: 1921, 1991. I personally think "past performances don't guarantee future results" but current Armenian mindset is that bringing in the Russians at this time is not a safe bet for Artsakh's territorial integrity. I don't agree with this kind of thinking, but I understand it and I think Moscow needs to understand it.

      I understand Moscow's predicament which is geostrateigc in nature, but Moscow needs to understand our predicament which is existential in nature. And it is OUR task to make Moscow understand this. I think we are failing in this regard.

      So, there needs to be a lot of negotiations between Moscow and Yerevan. Yerevan needs to understand that Moscow is in a very difficult position because Russia runs the risk of losing Baku to the Turkic/Islamic orbit. For its part, Moscow needs to understand that the current borders of Armenia and Artsakh is where Armenians will make their last stand. Moscow also needs to understand that we are a tiny nation surrounded by enemies and we have no defensive depth. Let's say we pulled back from some of the "seven territories" and we sign a peace treaty with Baku. No one can guarantee that Baku will not resume hostilities in the future. They are Turks after all.

      Delete
    2. ArevordiApril 22, 2016 at 5:01 AM

      I definitely agree that their defeat at the hands of Russians in Syria might make the situation worst in the Caucasus, at least in the near term. With hundreds/thousands of Azeri jihadis returning to their homeland, some are going to be asking - what are we going to do with these Russian-backed Armenians? Moreover, Azeri officials have raised an entire generation of Azeris on Armenophobia. This generation is now coming of age and they too will look at Artsakh and ask their leaders - what are we going to do with these Russian-backed Armenians?

      At the end of the day, we need to sober up and realize that the key to settling the Artsakh dispute is found in the Kremlin, not in the West. We also need to realize that Azeris (and until very recently Turks) have been lobbying Russians aggressively while our idiots have been no where in sight in Moscow. Armenia's leadership is corrupt and incompetent. While Moscow has been providing Armenia billions of dollars in economic and military assistance, Armenian leaders have been robbing Armenia of billions of dollars and placing their money in Western banks. And Yerevan has the balls to complain about Moscow? Had the political alternative to our current leadership had not been those who serve a Western agenda in the country, I would be calling for a bloody coup in Armenia.

      You made a good point about Sargsyan. It's obvious that Sargsyan is using Armenia's Western agents as a canard to stall Moscow's push to settle the dispute. But we all know that Western agents will bite his head off as soon as they get a chance. Also, Armenian society is being seeded with Russophobia, which may prove toxic for the country in the future. So, Sargsyan is playing a very dangerous game. It's also obvious that he does not want to be the one to make any concessions. So, he's delaying. But instead of doing things the Jewish way, he is doing things the Arab way. The point being: We need organized lobbying efforts in Moscow. The only ones doing it are the Azeris.

      Delete
    3. Arto1April 22, 2016 at 9:31 PM

      Arevordi,

      Just got done finished reading. Another one of your massive works. I understand everything about who is doing what and why and I think also that Serj is playing a dangerous game but his got no choice my friend. Agree with you totally that we needed more lobbying in Russia but we didn't do it. That's reality, no use crying over spilled milk. You know maybe its just not in us to be like Jews that's why Serj has no choice, he has to do what he has to do. No one worry, Russia will never abandon Armenia these are just technical matters but ally or no ally Russia needs to know we will fight for every inch of NKR. Period.

      I want to add, I am also worried about our military performance and I have a observation to make. We put way too much emphasis on the loss of life. I know why, its because we are small nation but that's not how the political world works. Young men have to be ready to die for politics. Armenian society should not go ballistic over it. When you treat the death of soldiers as a tragedy that means you are not willing to fight for the death. Just my observation. Also, I read a lot of Armenian message boards including HyeClub (sorry I had to confess) you are the only one that doesn't think the April war was a total Armenian victory. What kind of a nationalist are you Arevordi. LOL

      Delete
    4. KerkeshApril 24, 2016 at 5:18 PM

      The NKR and the recognition of Armenian lands , by the world powers, will perforce necessitate a military solution. Negotiations, conferences, summit meetings, compromises (painful or otherwise) to resolve the " conflict" only serve to perpetuate the status quo. This problem can only be solved militarily. It requires the defeat of the azbeijanes on the battle field. Be ready to continue , barring other unforeseen events, for the continuance of the status quo. No Armenian government, even if it is western poisoned, will countenance the cession of land for an illusory promise of "peace" .Russia can not force Armenia to give up what has been gained by shedding blood and force of arms. Russia knows too well that Azerbaijan is out of her orbit, they may film and flam with tactical overtures, but Russia will not be able to prise Azerbaijan away from turkey. If Russia has not learnt this yet, it may have to learn it the hard way. In spite of all the internal political squabbling and back stabbing in Armenia, save for the innately insane and quasi treacherous parukian, bedrosian, Sifilian, hovanessian parties, the instinctual drive for self preservation will not permit Armenia to split from our Russian allies. For those misguided russophobes, they need to realize that they have zero options approaching the West. Armenia must not expect Russian soldiers to come and fight for her. We have an army for that, we have to keep building a more powerful army, and let the political charlatans, diplomats and prophets continue with their discussions, talks, prophesies, and conferences on how to bring " peace into the region". They have been doing just that for the last two decades. Our politicians may o may not mess the future, but our army will preserve the nation.

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    5. ArevordiApril 24, 2016 at 7:40 PM

      Good observations, Arto1.

      We Armenians admire Jews for their political agility and foresight, yet when the times come for us to act like Jews in politics, we instead act like Arabs and Gypsies.

      Perhaps you are right. Perhaps it's just not part of our cultural/genetic makeup to be like Jews. In which case, I wish Armenians would stop comparing themselves to Jews. If Armenians have the urge to compare themselves to other people, I think it's better they compare themselves to people like Greeks, Cypriots, Assyrians, Kurds, Albanians, etc.

      That said, overreacting to deaths of soldiers is a sign of weakness. Young men, whether they are from smaller nations or larger nations, have to die purely for political reasons. That's just how it has been since the dawn of humanity. The notion that Armenian soldiers can only die in a defensive wars is self-limiting. A nation's collective willingness to fight and die for political reasons is what makes nations great. A nation's collective willingness to fight and die in foreign wars of conquest is what makes nations into empires. We just don't have those traits in us.

      So, perhaps Sargsyan has no choice. But Sargsyan is playing a very dangerous game. During the war and its aftermath I saw Yerevan putting out a lot of disinformation against Russia (see my response to Zoravar) and the kind of wartime propaganda that looked as if it was taken right out of the old Soviet-rule book: A lot of scripted talk by nervous looking young servicemen, a lot of hand selected materials to show Armenian prowess and a whole lot of bluster. Yeah, I know it needs to be done to keep the sheeple excited but for people like me who can see through these things, it's worrying.

      I'll tell you what else is worrying: Yerevan's disinformation campaign against Moscow. Setting loose Armenia's Western agents. Losing territory to Azeris (regardless of its strategic significance). Suffering 100 deaths in several days. Having 14 tanks knocked out in several days.

      Nevertheless, this war brought out some of our people's positive and negative traits.

      The positive: The Armenian tendency to unite and rally around the state when things get dangerous. However, this positive also has a negative side. Why can't Armenians unite in times of peace? By rallying only when there is an imminent danger, we are not flourishing we are merely surviving. Successful nations rally around their state in peace time, which in turn helps them avoid wartime.

      The negative: Armenians are emotional to the point of irrational. When Armenians are angry they can burn down their house in spite. Another negative: Armenians have two personalities when it comes to Russia: One side instinctually latches on to Russia for dear survival, the other side hates being so dependent on Russia for survival. So, at times you will see Armenians kissing Russian asses, and at other times you will see Armenians yelling, Ռուսաստան սիկտիր. When Armenia is in no danger, Armenians don't think twice about slamming Russia. When the situation however gets perilous for Armenia, Armenians expect Russians to come rushing to the rescue.

      All in all, we are a uniquely difficult species.

      PS: I also have a confession: I also visit HyeClub. LOL I actually go to the military thread started by Zoravar many years ago several times a week to look through and harvest materials. I also go there to keep an eye on a Western-financed operative called Vrej1915, who may actually be several different people posting under one name. Although that forum is overpopulated by childish idiots (with a few exceptions), the thread in question is very important because it attracts a lot of visitors. There may be an Azeri there posing as an Armenian. Probably there to collect information on military matters relating to Armenia and Artsakh. Anyway, with all this in mind, continue visiting the site and email me any pertinent materials you come across.

      Delete
    6. California HyeApril 25, 2016 at 5:52 AM

      Arevordi Jan,

      I found out it takes a long time to understand geopolitics. And it's more than absorbing academic bs. Most MSM on all sides is bs, as well. Preaching to the choir. You're right, heads of Hayrenik and the oligarchs are tavajans hiding their loot outside the country and crying that Russia doesn't do the right thing. As you often say chobans in Armani suits. They and the population of Hayrenik, in general, have this idea that other governments and peoples should do the right things for the country. Armenians are the most politically immature and ignorant people in the world. As to the spyurkahays. You know what I think: They are worse than useless.

      Can't thank you enough for your tireless, high quality, detailed and brainy analysis. Keep up the great work!

      Delete
    7. SkharaApril 25, 2016 at 9:21 PM

      Pyakin had interesting commentary about this. And his assessment of Azerbajan's future is pretty grim. According to him the global elite have plans that essentially erases Azerbajan from the map - however, in their plan it would against Russia's interests. The players that is supposed to move back into the area is Iran. Idea is ISIS comes into Azerbajan and begins massacaring the population, Iran moves in with "correct Islam" to save the day. Azerbajan is dismembered where Nahichevan actually goes to Armenia.

      Delete
    8. LGApril 26, 2016 at 9:58 PM

      Enker Skhara,

      I would not pay much heed to Pyakin's analysis regarding this topic. What he outlines is highly unlikely and even borders on delusion. This does not mean that globalist would not sacrifice azerbaijan if the need arises, but at this juncture azerbaijan is failing all on its own. I am also not of the opinion that Iran has agreed to the terms that western globalists demand of it.

      Delete
  14. Kim PhilbyApril 24, 2016 at 11:49 AM

    On 24 april - Armenian Genocide Commemoration Day - Merkel is in Turkey praising Erdogan; to think that President Sargsyan went to this Turkamol to complain about Russia while the war wasn't even ended... what a sick world we live in. Our "leadership" has lost all it's senses.

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  15. ZoravarApril 24, 2016 at 5:42 PM

    The four day war is now 3 weeks old. Throughout this time I have been actively watching the equipment used by the Azeris during the conflict. I am Particularly keeping an eye on any use of the recently delivered Russian hardware that is creating so much controversy among some of our more emotional compatriots. Here are my observations: Basically, there seems to be no evidence that indicates that the Azeris used these latest weapons sold by Russia over the last few years.

    1) Our Defense Ministry has mentioned that our forces engaged and destroyed a number of Azeri T-90 tanks. Yet, not a single photo or video evidence emerged showing T-90s, dead or alive.

    2) Our side has claimed that our opponent has used the TOS-1 thermobaric artillery system and that we destroyed one of their units. I have yet to see any photo or video of destruction, carnage or incineration that I can attribute to that system.

    3) There is one instance were Artsakh was hit by Smerch rockets. There are some photos. But the Azeris had in their arsenal this weapon for over ten years now; they had received them form Ukraine.

    4) The Mi-24 helicopter that we shot down was not one of the newer Mi-35 type that was delivered by Russia. They had that older Mi-24 for a long while and it happens to be one of the airframes that was modernized by South Africa many years ago.

    5)None of the BMP-3, Vena and other weaponry recently acquired from Russia was seen in any sort or form.

    Is it possible that the Azeris did not put to use any of the goodies they received from Russia? If so why? Here are the explanations that I can think of:

    a) Maybe there is no particular reason why these weapons were not used, it just happened that way.

    b) Pehaps Aliev instructed the Army not to use these new Russian systems so that the Russians don't pressure him or twist his arm later on during high level political discussions and negotiations.

    c) Or just maybe (and this a hypothesis): There are secret clauses in the arms deal between Moscow and Baku. Maybe a clause that stipulates that these weapons can be used only if Azerbaijan is attacked and can not be used for offensive operations.

    I find the last explanation to be the most likely as it makes everything suddenly crystal clear. Maybe Russia's arms deliveries to Baku do come with strings attached. Secret clauses in the contract that are in nobody's interest to reveal. Aliev would certainly not talk about this kind of restrictions, Moscow would keep things secret to not jeopardize the business and our side would not say a word about it because the weapons will not be used to attack us. Strings and hidden clauses are nothing new in the global arms trade. Made-in-USA arms deliveries to third world nations almost always come with strings attached.

    The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. Otherwise, I find it hard to explain why the Azeris would readily use their expensive kamikaze drones to harm us and refrain from utilizing the TOS-1 system which happens to be excellent tool to incinerate our soldiers and positions.

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    Replies
    1. ArevordiApril 24, 2016 at 6:48 PM

      Thank you for this, Zoravar. Now I don't feel like I am going crazy.

      Within a few days after the start of the mini war, this matter gradually began to dawn on me. I quickly realized that although our side was putting out many reports that Baku was using its newly purchased Russian-made weapons systems - including interviews of nervous looking Armenian tank crews talking about knocking out a number of T-90s - not a single photo or video of the weapons systems in question was seen in the thousands of photos and videos that flooded the internet and television. This was when I challenged your assumption that the Azeri helicopter that was shot down was one of the recently delivered Mi-35.

      When the reports first came out I was a bit surprised because I had prior information that Moscow and Baku had an agreement that these weapons would not be used against Armenia or Artsakh. Although I would not out it past Baku to go back on their word, I was still surprised that they would do such a thing because doing so would anger Moscow. I know Baku does not want to upset Moscow. Although many of us Armenians are under the impression that Azeris are stupid, the stupid ones are actually us Armenians. I say this because I see Baku being more careful in its dealings with Moscow; I see Baku placing more emphasis on developing close ties with Moscow; I see Baku being more proactive in Moscow. So, I was a bit surprised that Baku would flagrantly go back on its word. A subtle indicator of the existence of such an agreement between Moscow and Baku was Baku's periodic complaints that Yerevan was deploying its newly acquired arms against Azerbaijan. The implication being: If we Azeris can't, why are Armenians doing it? In theory, the Russian supplied weapons systems in question were meant for Azerbaijan's self-defense from larger more powerful neighbors like Iran.

      Anyway, I now feel vindicated. However, the damage is done: You can now find reports about "newly supplied Russian weapons being used to kill young Armenian lads" all over the news and in the mouths of virtually all Armenians around the world. I am very upset at what our officials in Yerevan have done. Yes, I understand they were trying to put pressure on Moscow in an effort to derail any attempts by Moscow to force a peace settlement to the Artsakh dispute, but unleashing the country's Western mercenaries, putting out damaging disinformation and seeding Armenian society with a dangerous toxin known as Russophobia is a very bad thing for country's long term health.

      Troubling side note: The speed with which news reports and scripted talk by military officers and servicemen came out suggests to me that this disinformation campaign against Russia may have been pre-planned by Armenian authorities. This in turn gives credence to the speculation that Yerevan may have had prior knowledge of this clash and that this clash may have been planned by Washington, Ankara and Baku as a way of sabotaging Moscow's renewed settlement efforts. It seems Yerevan was indirectly on board with Washington, Ankara and Baku.

      PS: Thank you again. I think this conversation may be the first one of its kind anywhere.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousApril 25, 2016 at 2:50 AM

      As Zoravor has many doubts of our ability..........why was a ceasefire called? and no the russians didn't force aliyev for any ceasefire. I have seen at least 3 videos with azeri tanks knocked out. Here is one of them.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JgW28vgvN0

      One other video was t-90 knocked and dozer was waiting to pull it away. The other video was 2 t90s side by side knocked out. Do you people actually think Baku cares about any clauses? I think people are dreaming Baku would care about any clauses....look at Bakus big brother...the turk dont care.

      BTW.... Russia has been promising to deliver the 200m worth of arms for the last 6 months and they are lagging??????????????????

      Delete
    3. ArevordiApril 25, 2016 at 6:45 AM

      Anonymous,

      I have already noted several times that I will not post anonymous comments anymore. I am making an exception in your case because this is an important topic in my opinion.

      Foremost, Zoravar does not have any "doubts of our ability", nor do I for that matter. We are simply discussing a matter that is technical and political in nature.

      Thank you for the video link. I had not yet seen it. Now that I have seen it, what I said remains in effect. There is NO PROOF whatsoever that those tanks seen in the video link you posted were T-90s. At those distances there is no way to make a positive identification, as the modified version of the T-72 and the T-90 look very similar. Moreover, there is no proof that one of those tanks were actually knocked out in the same video. A distant explosion hidden behind a dense row of trees does not mean a tank was hit by artillery. What's more, the disabled tank seen in the Bars Media video was neither hit nor was it a T-90. The tank looked like one of the modified versions of the T-72 and it seemed to have runoff the road.

      Thus far, the ONLY picture I have seen of an actual knocked-out Azeri tank was that of a standard T-72. Here it is -

      http://i2.imageban.ru/out/2016/04/19/20feb83dba2b5847221df5fc31ce7843.jpg

      So, I'm afraid you are seeing what you want to see. And if that makes you feel better about yourself, that's very good. But please don't come here with your attitude and your nonsense, there are other forums for that.

      Also, I clearly said I wouldn't put it past Azeris to go back on their word. But the point is that thus far there is NO evidence (photo, video, forensic or otherwise) to prove that the recently supplied Russian weapons systems were used in the attack. I am not saying they were not used, I am only saying there is no evidence that they were used. So, if you can bring me proof that they were, I will publicly apologize. How's that?

      As far as what made Baku accept a ceasefire, it was essentially two things: First, the war itself was one with a limited scope, they probably wanted to occupy some territory. Second, the Armenian resistance was very strong, which dashed Baku's hopes for significant gains or a quick victory. And after both sides suffered serious losses, both sides were ready for as ceasefire.

      Friendly advise: You have problems with perception and you are intellectually rigid. Also, you have too much empty bravado. Try to be a little flexible intellectually and try to see if you can do some critical thinking to improve your perception. This might help you better understand what's written in this blog and help you see things more clearly as well... unless you have a political agenda to push.

      BTW.... The reason why the Russians had not yet delivered the weapons in question was because the 200 million dollar loan was not yet ratified by the Armenian parliament. Our brilliant officials just got around to ratifying it after mini war. So, expect the weapons in question to be delivered shortly. Understand??????????????????

      Delete
    4. ArevordiApril 25, 2016 at 11:00 PM

      Until today I had thought the following photo was that of an Azeri T-72 destroyed by Armenians during the four day war -

      http://i2.imageban.ru/out/2016/04/19/20feb83dba2b5847221df5fc31ce7843.jpg

      The Russian site that keeps a tally on military hardware losses during the war is claiming it to be an Armenian T-72 destroyed by Azeri forces -

      http://lostarmour.info/karabakh/

      If the destroyed tank in question is indeed an Armenian T-72, then as far as I am aware there is no photo or video evidence of any Azeri tank losses, although Baku did admit losing one or two tanks.

      Delete
    5. Arto2April 27, 2016 at 4:24 PM

      Arevordi,

      Do you or any other person have any insight into the dismissal of high ranking military personnel by President Sargissian yesterday? Would this amount to an improvement in the military or was it a political move?

      Delete
    6. ArevordiApril 30, 2016 at 5:24 AM

      Arto jan, sorry for the late reply. The only insight I have about this internal military matter is what I read in news reports such as this -

      Russian military expert on dismissals in Defence Ministry of Armenia: http://rusarminfo.ru/russian-military-expert-on-dismissals-in-defence-ministry-of-armenia/

      Delete
  16. AnonymousApril 25, 2016 at 9:23 AM

    Dear Arevordi, are you familiar with fort-russ? And political analyst and commentator Joaquin Flores? He used to make often appearances on the 108Morris108 youtube channel, once a blue moon on RT, and more occasionally on PressTv. He is now a more frequent guest on the Ryan Dawson (Rys2sense/Anti Neocons)channel, maker of the famous film 'War By Deception'.. Anyway, before my account was terminated, I linked him to one of your articles which he loved and posted on his site with a photo I provided. Unfortunately, he only published the first part, missed the rest of the piece which continued on under the comments section of the post I had made of your work. Check it out
    http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/04/the-road-to-western-armenia-begins-in.html

    Mr. Flores is good people. He is familiar with Armenians, having lived in Eagle Rock and Hollywood growing up, now resides in Belgrade I believe. He is a great interview he had done with Morris Herman last summer during the electric Erevan sitch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qkTX6h2rOc

    ^ I highly suggest for you and your subscribers to check out the clip,.. for a non Armenian, I think he did a terrific job.

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    1. ArevordiApril 25, 2016 at 9:36 PM

      A friend told me about my "road to Western Armenia" article in Fort Russ about a week ago. So it was you who had brought my work to his attention. Thank you, Sean. Also, I watched Joaquin's interview last summer. Yes, he did do a great job. Thank you for your activism.

      Delete
  17. LGApril 25, 2016 at 9:50 PM

    Terrific materials showing the role of Jews in Hollywood and in the creation of the modern 'American' culture. A culture created by Jewish filmmakers has replaced American culture.

    Insight - Hollywoodism: The Ideology that has Devoured Western Culture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwgLczzn5gk

    Hollywoodism (avi): http://www.veoh.com/watch/v16439142GRyZJsPn

    Hollywood and the Dreadful Few (Part II): http://www.shoah.org.uk/2013/10/27/hollywood-and-the-dreadful-few-part-ii/

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    Replies
    1. ArevordiApril 26, 2016 at 6:38 AM

      Thank you for bringing these to my attention. The people behind these documentaries and articles are doing a great service not only to Americans but also to humanity. This topic - Jewish control of American pop culture - is key to truly understanding globalism, modern America, global unrest and the decline of Western civilization.

      Delete
    2. Romanian AnonymusApril 27, 2016 at 1:58 AM

      It might seem a bit out of topic, but I stumbled recently upon two precious informations gleaned from Armenian chronicles regarding the Judeo-Islamic collusion (it reveals also the origin of the "Abrahamic religions" meme)

      From Ghewond's Armenian History (7th Century):
      "[The Arabs] began to form brigades and mass troops against Constantine's realm, against Judaea and Asorestan, having for support the command of their law-giver, that sower of darnel, to "Go against the countries and put them under your rule, for the plenty of the world has been given to us for our enjoyment. Eat the meat of the select ones of the countries, and drink the blood of the mighty." The Jews were their supporters and leaders, having gone to the camp at Madiam and told them: "God promised Abraham that He would deliver up the inhabitants of the world in service [to him]; and we are his heirs and sons of the patriarch. Because of our wickedness, God became disgusted with us and lifted the scepter of kingship from us, subjecting us to the servitude of slavery. But you, too, are children of Abraham and sons of the patriarch. Arise with us and save us from service to the emperor of the Byzantines, and together we shall hold our realm." [The Arabs] were encouraged further hearing this, and went against Judaea."

      The second is from The Armenian History attributed to Sebeos (Armenian: Սեբեոս) was a 7th-century Armenian bishop and historian.(I quote from Wikipedia):

      "Twelve peoples representing all the tribes of the Jews assembled at the city of Edessa... Heraclius, emperor of the Byzantines, gave the order to besiege it. When the Jews realized that they could not militarily resist him, they promised to make peace. Opening the city gates, they went before him, and Heraclius ordered that they should go and stay in their own place. So they departed, taking the road through the desert to Tachkastan Arabia to the sons of Ishmael. The Jews called the Arabs to their aid and familiarized them with the relationship they had through the books of the Old Testament. Although the Arabs were convinced of their close relationship, they were unable to get a consensus from their multitude, for they were divided from each other by religion. In that period a certain one of them, a man of the sons of Ishmael named Mahmed, became prominent. A sermon about the Way of Truth, supposedly at God’s command, was revealed to them, and Mahmed taught them to recognize the God of Abraham, especially since he was informed and knowledgeable about Mosaic history. Because the command had come from on High, he ordered them all to assemble together and to unite in faith. Abandoning the reverence of vain things, they turned toward the living God, who had appeared to their father–Abraham... He said: “God promised that country to Abraham and to his son after him, for eternity. And what had been promised was fulfilled during that time when God loved Israel. Now, however, you are the sons of Abraham, and God shall fulfill the promise made to Abraham and his son on you. Only love the God of Abraham, and go and take the country which God gave to your father Abraham. No one can successfully resist you in war, since God is with you."

      Delete
    3. JerrikoApril 28, 2016 at 6:27 AM

      Not sure how this would be surprising:

      How Zionist Theodor Herzl Sold Out the Armenians:
      http://www.horizonweekly.ca/news/details/66791

      After reading this article, I'm not that surprised at all on the Jewish attitude towards Armenians.

      Delete
    4. LGApril 29, 2016 at 8:03 PM

      Vice President Biden: Jewish Leaders, Pop Culture Drove Gay Marriage Acceptance
      Daily News (New York)
      http://m.nydailynews.com/news/politics/vice-president-biden-jewish-leaders-pop-culture-drove-gay-marriage-acceptance-article-1.1351817

      What a mensch. Vice President Biden praised Jewish leaders in the media Tuesday night [May 2013], crediting them with helping change American attitudes on gay marriage with contributions to television and technology like "Will and Grace" and social media. "I believe what affects the movements in America, what affects our attitudes in America, are as much the culture and the arts as anything else," Biden said at a Democratic National Convention reception celebrating Jewish American Heritage Month ... "I bet you 85 percent of those changes, whether it's in Hollywood or social media, are a consequence of Jewish leaders in the industry," the gaffe-prone Veep said ... Biden also praised Jewish contributions to civil rights, science and immigration reform.

      VP Biden Acknowledges 'Immense' Jewish Role in American Mass Media and Cultural Life
      Mark Weber
      http://ihr.org/other/biden_jewish_role

      In a remarkable but under-reported address, Vice President Joe Biden recently acknowledged that the "immense" and "outsized" Jewish role in the US mass media and cultural life has been the single most important factor in shaping American attitudes over the past century, and in driving major cultural- political changes. "Jewish heritage has shaped who we are - all of us - as much or more than any other factor in the last 223 years. And that's a fact," Biden told a gathering of Jewish leaders in Washington, DC.

      Jewish Media Influence as Decisive in Creating a Positive Public Culture of Homosexuality
      Brenton Sanderson - The Occidental Observer
      http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2015/07/the-indoctrination-game-part-2-jewish-media-influence-as-decisive-in-creating-a-positive-public-culture-of-homosexuality/

      ... The radical homosexual agenda could not have made such incredibly rapid strides without Jewish backing. Without this support, the agenda of a small minority, whose behaviour has traditionally been frowned upon, would have gained little traction in the public sphere. Professor of Political Science at Florida University, Kenneth Wald, notes that: "The political power of the gay community does not come close to matching the impressive resource base assembled by American Jews." An integral part of the "impressive resource base" of American Jewry is, of course, their domination of the media and entertainment industries. Hollywood has been integral to changing Western attitudes towards homosexuality, as Vice President Joe Biden acknowledged ... Jewish influence on these cultural shifts is increasingly acknowledged by Jews.

      Delete
    5. ArevordiApril 29, 2016 at 11:07 PM

      Thank you from this information, LG. Jewish power and influence is openly celebrated today. This wasn't the case just 30 or 40 years ago when Jews preferred to operate behind the scenes. America's old ruling elite - the WASPs - got us to where we are.

      We are living in an Anglo-American-Jewish time period is human history. This evil trinity began rearing its head at the turn of the last century. Nature reacted violently; the rise of Nazi Germany. But this proved counterproductive as the evil trinity grew more powerful and audacious as a result of Germany's defeat. Stalin's Russia also proved to be an obstacle for them. But that also proved short lived. The Anglo-American-Jewish world order became a global hegemon with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

      In recent decades, however, the Anglo-American component of the trinity has taken a backseat to the Jewish component. The Anglo-American-Jewish world order today is in fact primarily a Jewish order that is merely based in the Anglo-American world.

      Apostolic Christianity and European "alpha males" have been the two main targets of the Jewish elite.

      This is because apostolic Christianity came into being during the period when it was severely persecuted by Jews. Apostolic Christianity therefore has a deeply ingrained anti-Jewish component. Apostolic Christianity aside, classical European/western civilization has historically produced large numbers of alpha male types, which accounts for European conquests around the world. The aforementioned are therefore seen as the root causes of antisemitism and nationalism in the world.

      To neuter/declaw European/western civilization, you have to transform or destroy apostolic Christianity and the classical European male type. Enter globalism, feminism, cults, liberalism, atheism, civil society, democracy, multiculturalism, third world migration, homosexuality, drugs, etc.

      They have the tools to redesign society and that is exactly what they have been doing. They use American pop culture, television, cinema, radio, school curriculum, etc., to remake society and target alpha males and apostolic Christianity. We have already been through several generations of social engineering, brain washing and I would even say "controlled breeding" in the western/European world.

      Take a close look around western/European society; alpha males and Christianity are near extinct. Women are now more manly; men are now more feminine; Christians have become Godless and Christianity have become thoroughly Judeaified (i.e. Judaeo-Christian). Western/European civilization is demonized. And whites/Caucasians are "proud of not being proud". Take a look at this gem from Germany -

      Achtung! Germans on the rise!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMQkV5cTuoY&feature=youtu.be

      Like I have said: Everything we love and hate about the USA is a by-product of Jewish influence. Everything we see, hear and read in mainstream USA comes to us filtered by the Western world's Jewish elite. Whether we realize it or not, Western/European civilization is in decline today because of Jews and any goy that cannot see this is blind.

      Delete
    6. ArevordiApril 30, 2016 at 3:24 AM

      PS: As an antidote to the Achtung Germans(!) perversion, I suggest this Russian production -

      The degeneracy of modern Society Degeneration der modernen Gesellschaft: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cErWMpH5qwo

      Delete
    7. LGMay 15, 2016 at 7:27 PM

      Netherlands’ Referendum: LGBT rights at stake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8NXbi7cvko

      The Russians and all Traditionalists could not have put together a better video against the eu than this one.

      Delete
  18. sonofamalekApril 25, 2016 at 10:56 PM

    https://www.rt.com/news/340889-armenia-blast-bus-yerevan/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JerrikoApril 26, 2016 at 8:23 AM

      My guess is that it might be terrorism aimed at destabilizing the Sargsyan administration (at worst), and at best it could be a faulty part in the bus engines. These days, buses are fueled by natural gas. Even the buses in Canada where I live, they are fueled by natural gas, so it might not be farfetched to think that somehow a chemical that acts as a cataclyst for an explosion would have been mixed up with the natural gas.

      Delete
    2. LGApril 26, 2016 at 5:00 PM

      Rare Deadly Blast Hits Armenian Capital; Terrorist Attack Feared: http://www.ibtimes.com/rare-deadly-blast-hits-armenian-capital-terrorist-attack-feared-2359440

      This article claims the police think a bomb was placed under one of the bus seats. Assuming it was a bomb the only 2 likely scenarios I can think of are:

      1) Done by turkish/azerbaijani intel
      or
      2) Done by anti-government forces

      Delete
    3. ArevordiApril 26, 2016 at 5:32 PM

      Or,

      3) Western/Israeli intel.

      4) Collaboration between domestic anti-government forces and above mentioned foreign intel.

      There is VERY LITTLE difference between a disgusting traitor like Vahan Martiroyan and Armenia's political opposition activists. All of them hate the Armenian government more than they hate Turks or Azeris; all of them hate Artsakh Armenians and blame most of Armenia's problems on Artsakh; all of them hate Russia with a passion; all of them think Armenia needs closer relations with Western powers.

      Armenia therefore has a pool of many thousands of people who are fully predisposed for manipulation by Western, Israeli and Turkish intel. Armenia today has many thousands of people who are fully capable of supporting and/or carrying out a politically motivated terror act in the country. I'm not saying that the bus bombing was the work of domestic groups, what I'm saying is that such a thing is not unthinkable.

      Had Armenia been a real nation-state and not the private property of a handful of chobans-in-Armani suits, Armenian officials would have encouraged Russians to establish another military base in Armenia and Armenia's security services would have rounded up all of the country's Western-funded political activists and either jailed them or deported them.

      First in-line for jailing or deportations should have been EVERY single member of Founding Parliament, New Armenia, Raffi Hovanissian and associates, Vartan Oskanian's and associates, Artur Sakunts and associates, Paruyr Hayrikian and associates, Richard Giragosian and associats, Lragir's staff and ArmeniaNow's staff.

      Finally, if this bombing is proven to be an actual terror operation, I think it was just a warning. Armenian society is very laid back and the country's infrastructure is very poorly protected. Even Armenians officials are poorly protected. Whoever did the bombing could have done a lot more damage if they really wanted to. Also, they could have set off the bomb at locations in the center of Yerevan during the day when there is heavy traffic. I hope I am wrong, but a real war may be coming. There is also the possibility that Islamic extremists from groups like ISIS and Al Nusra from Syria will be transported to Azerbaijan via Georgia.

      Delete
    4. aaaApril 27, 2016 at 1:50 AM

      Does Russia need a third army base in Armenia ? From an Armenian perspective,disregarding the treacherous western organs in the country, it would be in Armenia's favor and interests to have a third Russian base. If the Russians want to establish a third military concentration they will simply go ahead and do it. The NKR Armenians are inordinately a very tough breed. They are sterner and harder than the Armenians. However that implacable temperament does not seem to have been extrapolated in the management of the internal political dynamics. Newspapers like lrgir should be prevented from operating. Their content amounts to sedition, disinformation and deceit. An intellectual midget like guiragosian, should have his space ring fenced . These are Trojan horses in the motherland. The administration is too tolerant and lenient. They are lucky that in spite of their landlocked configuration , the unfavorable real estate it is of critical interest to Russian geopolitics. The next question to ask is why do we have turkophiles amongst our ranks. There are many , many of them. They are an insidiously gangrenous threat to the physical integrity of the nation. A specimen like Parukian requires special studying of his geneticall/ biological stuffing. Every nation has its good share of treacherous crops. Is treachery inbred, is it a peculiar genetically condition, can it be subject to a desideratum. Since the day of Elphiades, we have had untold numbers of his ilk wrecking nations and creating chaos . We can not afford to have these ill assortment of genes polluting our limited gene pool.

      Delete
  19. Armenian ConvertApril 28, 2016 at 7:42 AM

    "In the big picture, the Caucasus is one bad event from turning into a Turkic-Islamic cesspool."

    I want to understand what is your solution to this God forbid unimaginable solution? What measures shout be taken to mitigate against such a scenario given the circumstances of the 21st century geopolitical setup? Is it enough simply to exclude such a scenario as unlikely? Are there definitive guarantees that Russia may hold on to sustained pressure against its economy and its ruling regime? Even Russians recognize and analyze some of its weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Even if the chances are slim that such a scenario may unfold, then what?

    I would like in one of your future commentaries to cover this topic in glorious details, What if Russia withdraws from the South Caucasus? What if in 100 years from now Russia has an Islamic majority? What if Russia falls prey to perverted nationalism and ejects itself from non-Slavic spheres of interests and restricts its presence to the North Caucasus (in my opinion with the current demographics I believe this is their realistic aspiration, the North Caucasus is a tightly defensible natural barrier for Russia, anything beyond that is nice to have, but not a "must have"). With multiple fronts opened against them, the time may come they decide to boost presence in some places, withdraw from other places... Needless to say the Islamic presence in that region already is a burden on ethnic Russians (despite all the fake love fest between Chechens and Slavs, we both know they both hate each other) If I was Russian I would draft some worst case scenario plans to repel those undesirables to beyond the North Caucasus (either to far East, or to the South), this is what happened exactly when Russia allowed 4 years for the trouble makers to migrate to Syria and now tries to shut its doors against those wishing to come back, estimated around 7 to 10 thousand at least, excluding the Central Asian nutjobs (another possible front, Tajikistan/Kyrgyzstan...).

    Please explore this unimaginable topic, and try to draw lessons from previous experiences of similar crisis setups in Armenian history, which choices were correct (1-convert triumphantly as in 301CE case 2-resist with honor 451CE 3-mix of both 1 + 2, i.e. fight and co-operate with invaders 645CE 4-pack and leave 1915 ) maybe my descriptions of these events are not so accurate, not so well versed in history, but just roughly, it shows what possibilities are out there....or how about go crypto Armo, change names and deny identity? how about the Hamshen experience? How about we go slit eyes and adopt Confucianism...."as we say in Armenia, together with the Chinese there is more than a billion of us" I guess you know the story that Vardan Mamigonian hailed from China.. from Han dynasty??

    Imagine the worst case scenario, even if you don't write about it, keep it under your constant consideration when you are thinking about Armenia's fate. Nationhood should be preserved at all costs, otherwise we are no different to gypsies in foreign lands, and as they say, in foreign lands, even the local rabbits feed on foreigners, so simply accepting the extinction of Armenia in case of negative turn of events is out of question. Risks should be mitigated, and you can bet there is no one in official position thinking about these topics, cause they are all preoccupied with bizniz.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiApril 28, 2016 at 8:52 AM

      Armenian convert,

      You couldn't just come out and say, "convert to Islam to save yourselves"? Of all the crazy ideas I have heard about saving/protecting Armenian statehood... this must be the most outrageous. Simply amazing. I don't know what life experiences brought you to Islam but no thank you! Armenians in general have a spiritual, historical and cultural bond with Christianity that will not be broken. That said, if Armenians are ever to convert to anything, I hope it will be back to Zoroastrianism. We don't need to convert to yet another and an even more backward Semitic desert religion.

      Also, despite the wet dreams of Westerners, Turks, Jews and Muslims, Russia is not going anywhere, at least for well into the foreseeable future. And I have absolutely no doubt about that. All of Russia's greatest historic enemies have shown that underestimating Russia and predicting its collapse is a grave mistake. Russia will be around - with its virtually limitless natural resources and massive nuclear arsenal - for a long, long time. But, I also realize that eventually anything can happen.

      And this is exactly why I want official Yerevan to stop wasting time flirting with Western powers and make a serious effort towards exploiting the historic opportunity that Russia's alliance is currently presenting Armenia. I want to see official Yerevan use its ties with Russia to strengthen Armenia technologically and militarily. I understand that the Muslim mindset still resides in the medieval period, but we are living in the 21st century now. In other words, we don't have to fight with swords anymore. Technology today can be a very effective supplement for numerical inferiority. Because Armenia is located in a geographical region saturated by Muslims and Turkic peoples, Armenia has no choice but to begin producing modern weapons systems and work on developing nuclear bomb capability.

      An alliance with Russia, military technology, our mountains and the bomb are enough to keep Turkic/Islamic hordes away from our borders. So, I am glad to say no large scale conversions to Islam will be necessary to save our statehood. Nevertheless, thank you so much for worrying so much about Armenia's preservation... It really warmed my heart.

      PS: Modern Armenian scholarship no longer believes that Vardan Mamigonian's ancestors were from China.

      Delete
    2. Razmik ArtashesApril 28, 2016 at 6:50 PM

      Regarding defense, what worries me most in case of a turkish confrontation is the Ararat plain, where there are no natural barriers. What would best work against an attack from that (let us forget the likelihood of the scenario, I would like to hear a military approach).

      Delete
    3. Longtime readerApril 29, 2016 at 12:43 AM

      Arevordi, first I thought this was a bad joke. Why did you even post this muslim's stupid BS? The clown's giving us an ultimatum like convert or die. WTF?

      Delete
    4. ManoushApril 29, 2016 at 1:14 AM

      Armenian converting to Islam is an outlandish , extraterrestrial proposition by maggot infested minds. On a one to one basis, on an individual case it has already happened, and they have disappeared for ever, with their identities. In the harrowing instance if this sacrilege became a surreal topic for sick minds to consider, it does not mean it will save our statehood. Look at the Yezidis, look at the kurds, and other smaller muslim groups who are vandalized and exploited by their more numerous kindred clans.

      Delete
    5. ArevordiApril 29, 2016 at 5:58 PM

      Gev and Longtime reader,

      Please be respectful of other people's religions. Islam is a religion like all the others. In fact, Islam is a much more respectable religion than Judaism. Moreover, this "Armenian convert" character is not worst than "Westernized" Armenians. Think about it: Both want to save Armenia by breaking Armenia's ties with Russia. The difference being: One wants to save Armenia by making it part of the Muslim world, the other wants to save Armenia by making it part of the Western world. Both are delusional, both are dangerous. With that said, in the big picture, what "Armenian convert" says makes more sense than what our Westernizers and Democratizers say. But anyway, this topic is a serious waste of time. Let's please more on.

      Delete
    6. ArevordiApril 29, 2016 at 6:09 PM

      Razmik,

      From a military standpoint, the frontier with Turkey is Armenia's most vulnerable sector. This is exactly why we have Russian boots on the ground in Armenia. Militarily, the Ararat plain is ideal for blitzkrieg (combined arms) attacks by large formations of tanks, aircraft and troops. Please disregard childish idiots who constantly bring up "Sardarapat". People who know anything about military matters know that Armenia's military, as it stands today, would stand NO CHANCE against Turkey's NATO backed armed forces on the open plains of Ararat.

      So, if the Russian factor was not at play and Ankara was serious about invading Armenia, Turkish troops would be on the outskirts of Yerevan in a matter of days or weeks - and EVERY SINGLE ONE of those activists who have been demanding the closure of Russian military bases in Armenia would escape to the US, or even Russia. But, let's be more realistic. A full scale invasion of Armenia by Turkey will most likely not happen. What will most likely happen instead is the following:

      If Russia pulled out of Armenia for one reason or another, all Ankara would need to do do is militarize Turkey's border with Armenia, increase tensions and begin conducting regular cross-border raids, similar to what Ankara does in Iraq and Syria, similar to what Baku does in Artsakh. Such a thing would automatically draw Armenian troops and military resources away from Artsakh. And such a thing will at the very least lead to our defeat in Artskah. Moreover, a large and hostile Turkish military presence right on Armenia's border coupled with the absence of the Russian factor in the region, Yerevan would have NO CHOICE but to give into to ALL of Turkey's political and economic demands.

      This is why I say: Armenia's independence from Russia means Armenia's dependence on Turkey. This is why I say: By covering Armenia's border with Turkey, Russia is allowing Armenia to concentrate its resources on protecting Armenia's border with Azerbaijan.

      Anyone that thinks Western powers or even Iran will come rushing to Armenia's aid in time of war is an idiot. Unfortunately, alarmingly, we have MANY idiots.

      I have said this before, I'll say it again: The single factor that is keeping the Armenian state alive in the south Caucasus today is the existence of the 102nd base. Anyone that questions this is either a fucking idiot or a Western/Turkish agent. Any Armenian that calls into question Armenia's alliance with Russia today is a serious threat to Armenia. In my opinion, such people are more dangerous than Turks and Azeris combined.

      Delete
    7. VerdunApril 29, 2016 at 11:08 PM

      Those who think that hayastan can remain a nation state without the omnipresence of the Russia's are either foreign operatives, who are want to use Hayastan against Russia, or otherwise they are downright dumbed down nationals. We do have a fifth column, ready to betray and subvert , at any moment. They are an ever present threat. Why do we have so many political parties ? Is this the Armenian way of Hay democracy. Oskanian ( well spoken, dynamic and articulate , fit for the role of FM, under the kocharian administration) founds a new party and enters parliament. His party, grandiloquently announced, offers nothing new under the sun. Another waste of space to feed , from the tax payers, a new recruit joining the gaggle of empty suit parliamentarians. A small nation which more political parties than seats available in parliament. The tumor, growing tumor, in our national life is pharaonic size of the USA embassy. A center of espionage, a hotbed of NGO's funding and anti national organizations. A vipers nest of subversives , nurtured in the heart of the nation. In contrast the Russian embassy, our strategic and only ally, Is noticeable for it not being conspicuous.

      Delete
  20. GevApril 29, 2016 at 4:46 PM

    I would like to get your thoughts on the following. Since we started hitting the azeris hard......two things have happened.

    1. The T90 we won was delivered ( Plane had no other weapons on board. Flew all the way to Armenia with 1 Tank. Why not deliver other goods with it? Ep we are waiting on 200m worth of weapons?

    2. Almost all Kremlin based TV channels are visiting azeri side and recording what we done to them...while no one bothered to visit NK when they shelled us.

    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiApril 29, 2016 at 5:02 PM

      Gev,

      1) Other than our internet warriors, no one (be it Moscow, be it Yerevan) was actually taking the single T-90 tank very seriously. The delay was also due to bureaucratic red tape. That said, its rush delivery now was a symbolic act to show Russian support. In the big picture, however, a single T-90 can only act as a training platform for Armenian crews. The tank will have no combat value as long as we don't have significant numbers of them in our inventory.

      2) From the information I have, most of the weapons systems that Armenia was to purchase with the $200 loan from Russia IS ALREADY in Armenia and stored at the 102nd base in Gyumri. But here again, there was a problem with bureaucratic red tape. The Armenian side was taking its time to finalize the loan arrangement, the Russian side was somewhat indifferent (they do after all have so many other pressing problems). The April war was a rude awakening for both Yerevan and Moscow. The matter is now currently being resolved and I believe we will see the first weapons transfers in a short while.

      PS: Stop listening to misleading internet chatter put out by idiots and Western agents.

      Delete
    2. ZoravarApril 29, 2016 at 6:12 PM

      Gev,

      Stop spreading anti-Russian lies, rumors and other BS.

      1) How do you know there was nothing else on the Antonov that brought the T-90? Are you basing yourself on that short video where they show us only what they want us to see? Even if there was nothing else, how can you make conclusions? Do you know what came on the previous plane? Do you know what is coming on the next plane?

      2) First of all, there is no such thing as "Kremlin based" TV channels. The smell of Russophobic BS is evident.
      Secondly, why shouldn't Russian journalists go to Azerbaijan? They are journalists after all.
      Third, the vast majority of the 4 day war coverage by "Russia based" stations was overwhelmingly pro-Armenian. Even the Donbass (Novorossia) based news channels were pro-Armenia.Correction: They were pro-Artsakh

      P.S. As Arevordi suggested: Stop listening to misleading internet chatter put out by idiots and Western agents.

      Delete
    3. Arto1April 30, 2016 at 2:46 AM

      Gev,

      RT was in Arcax during the war showing the damage Azeris were did with their bombings. Maybe they are in their side because we are doing the damage now? My father is fluent in Russian, every Russian news source he reads is pro-Armenian like Zoravar says. I am also thinking now that this war was a warning to Russia. I think this is good because it again shows Russians how important Armenia is for them. I hope those weapons get supplied soon. I really want to see the Avtobaz.

      Delete
  21. ZoravarApril 29, 2016 at 9:53 PM

    On another front: Interesting things are happening on the Syria-Turkey border.

    Earlier this month a Turkish M-60 Tank was hit by a KORNET missile fired by ISIS. The tank was badly damaged: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRGgNbFgQOg

    A few days ago, ISIS destroyed three Turkish T-155 FIRTINA self-propelled 155mm guns by using METIS anti-tank missiles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9A_JUIJOmCU

    Aftermath of the above strike: http://imgur.com/8TLBaN7

    What has happened between ISIS and Turkey? Here is my take on the matter:

    That part of the world still lives under tribal mentality; alliances tend to be short-term and very fluid in nature. Taking that into consideration, here are my explanations for these ISIS versus Turkey skirmishes:
    1)Al-Nusrah terrorist and other so-called "moderate" terrorists are clashing with ISIS for control, business, influence etc. Turkey is siding with the former and its artillery is shelling ISIS positions. ISIS is retaliating against Turkey.

    2)Turkey is flip-flopping. Under pressure from various sides and finding itself on the loosing side, Erdogan is abandoning ISIS and no longer supplying weapons, finances and support to that organization. ISIS is now biting the hand the formerly fed it.

    3)These are efforts to drag the Turkish army into Syria in order to provoke a war between Russia and Turkey.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiApril 29, 2016 at 11:40 PM

      Zoravar,

      They all look and sound alike. How would we know for sure that these militants are associated with ISIS? Also, I have seen anti-government militants mostly use American-made TOW missiles. Where/how were these Russian-made anti-tank missiles obtained?

      Anyway, the situation there is so convoluted that I don't believe anything that is being said anymore. But what we do know for a fact is that Russia's military intervention in Syria utterly ruined their plans. Consequently, it is very plausible that they are now having serious internal disputes and are at each others throats as a result. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these groups are also fighting for survival. Rabid organizations like these Islamist groups are created for specific purposes. Once the purpose is not there, the groups are discarded and/or destroyed.

      But, let's also realize that when the time is right these groups will once again collaborate with their sponsors in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the West. So, all this may just be a temporary glitch. That said, your number three is also a real possibility. A war between Russia and Turkey (as well as a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia) is a real possibility.

      Delete
    2. ZoravarApril 30, 2016 at 5:48 AM

      Arevordi,

      The videos I posted are from ISIS's propaganda outlet.
      As for the Russian made anti tank missiles... You said it: The situation is so convoluted.
      I even suspect some Kurd groups helping some ISIS factions.

      Delete
  22. TedMay 1, 2016 at 7:18 AM

    Arevordi,

    Most Armenians I know would not be able to get past your second sentence, even I had a hard time. What do you mean politics is not like a bar fight? LOL But seriously my friend I think you worry too much. Regardless of what Yerevan says or does Moscow will never ever even think about abandoning Armenia, trust me on that. The 102nd base is there to protect Russia first, Armenia second. What I'm saying is Russia's border starts in Armenia. No matter who is in power in Yerevan Moscow will make sure it holds on to that base. Our leaders know this and they are using this knowledge to play with Moscow. It's like being married to a dull person who you know will never divorce you and you take advantage of the situation by openly flirting with others to get your partner's attention. Armenia and Russia are married for life. But I totally agree with you when you say we need better lobbying to iron out wrinkles in the relationship. Anyway, I enjoyed reading this blog. Btw, you also do a good job of spinning things to fit your narrative.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiMay 2, 2016 at 3:59 AM

      Ted,

      My worry has to do with not being able to properly exploit our relationship with the Russian Bear because our people's attention is constantly being drawn westward. My worry has to do with an army of Western activists seeding the current generation with Russophobia. The seeds in question are the seeds of our destruction. My ultimate worry is the weakening of Russia's political and military position in Armenia. As long as there is no Pax Russicana in the south Caucasus, Armenia will continue facing existential threats. You have to be careless and indifferent not to worry. You can't just sit back and assume that Russia will NEVER leave or be forced out of Armenia. You can't just sit back and assume that Russia will remain forever influential in the region. The south Caucasus is one bad incident away from turning into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool again. Armenians need to therefore see the bigger picture and take things more seriously. Yerevan needs to work more closely with Moscow. None of this is happening because there is no political foresight in Yerevan and Armenian officials are not proactive. This lack of vision and proactivity on the part of official Yerevan is the reason why President Sargsyan runs to Western capitols when Moscow does things he doesn't like. The situation is now getting really bad because Armenian officials have unleashed their Western mercenaries as a canard (to delay a peace settlement in Artsakh) and as a smokescreen (to conceal Yerevan's incompetence and corruption). You have an entire country that is dependent on Russia, yet the majority of the people in that country either hate Russia or think Russians are backstabbers. Yerevan has created a ripe conditions for Western/Turkish intelligence agencies.

      PS: I spin for truth, justice and the Armenian way.

      Delete
    2. LGMay 3, 2016 at 1:58 AM

      Ted,

      Even if what you claim is true, that Russia will not abandon Armenia, the fact remains that Armenia does not have enough raw power to withstand turkey and azerbaijan. Until this changes, Armenians can not afford to rest on their laurels. Instead of working to build a mountainous fortress in the Caucasus, one that is strong both morally and physically, our chobans in suits (aka official Yerevan) are embezzling money, floating their foreign policy, and handing the initiative to the enemy. The best defense is a good offense. What is Yerevan's grand strategy? As far as I can tell they think playing nice with all sides is the strategy. Changing dynamics in the region and the world have changed that.

      Delete
    3. TedMay 4, 2016 at 3:37 AM

      You guys misunderstood me. All I was trying to say was Russia won't let go of Armenia no matter what Armenians do. Of course we need better policies coming out of Yerevan, it goes without saying. Anyway, you guys here do a real good job of presenting a case for Armenia's alliance with Russia.

      Delete
  23. Romanian AnonymusMay 1, 2016 at 9:37 AM

    Քրիստոս հարյա՜վ ի մեռելոց: Օրհնյա՜լ է Հարությունը Քրիստոսի
    Hristos a înviat! Adevărat a înviat!
    Христосъ воскресе! Воистину воскресе!
    Χριστὸς ἀνέστη! Ἀληθῶς ἀνέστη!

    This is what really unites us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiMay 2, 2016 at 3:52 AM

      Romanian, happy Easter to you too and I fully agree with you. We orthodox peoples have so much potential, yet we have been struggling for survival for many centuries. Throughout history, our most destructive enemies have come from the western world. The anti-orthodox agenda is alive and well today and its an integral part of the Anglo-American-Jewish world order. When the Soviet Union was slowly collapsing back in the late 19980s, one of the stated concerns in Washington was the "revival of a neo-Byzantium". This geostrategic concern of theirs is the fundamental reason behind the bloody turmoils we have had in places like Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Georgia, Russia and Armenia after the Soviet collapse. Our civilization/our type is under attack by the West and its Turkic/Islamic allies. It's as if they don't want to give us any breather space because they don't want to see us grow/develop. Christian Orthodoxy is under attack. I don't know if we will be able to get our act together and properly resist.

      Delete
  24. Romanian AnonymusMay 3, 2016 at 2:50 AM

    You might know that:

    New Armenia Protests, Same US-Backed Mobs: http://journal-neo.org/2016/04/28/new-armenia-protests-same-us-backed-mobs/

    The same reproduced at:

    Care to Guess Who's Funding Anti-Russian Protests in Armenia? http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/gee-care-guess-whos-funding-anti-russian-protests-armenia/ri14125

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiMay 3, 2016 at 3:22 AM

      Romanian,

      Davit Sanasaryan is one of Armenia's most active Western-funded mercenaries. There is not much difference between people like Davit Sanasaryan and Vahan Martirosyan, the traitor that defected to Azerbaijan with his family several months ago. They all want to pull Armenia out of Russia's orbit; they all want Russian troops to leave Armenia; they all wants to give Western powers a bigger role in Armenia; they all hate Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh; and they all blame many of Armenia's problems on the ongoing dispute.

      This is more-or-less the "political opposition" in Armenia today, and this is the situation official Yerevan has created through its "complimentary politics" bullshit, which in reality is a by-product of incompetence, corruption and a lack of political foresight.

      Note: Complimentary politics made some sense in the 1990s when Russian influence in the south Caucasus was very weak. Things began to change in the summer of 2008. Since then, we have had Russian intervention in Ukraine and in Syria. The Russian Bear is awake today and he is angry. The geopolitical calculus in the south Caucasus today is therefore very different than it was in the 1990s - yet official Yerevan is still operating like it's the 1990s.

      Consequently, Western-funded operatives and NGOs in Armenian society are numerous and very proactive, and because Armenia's leadership is corrupt and incompetent, the activists in question are also seen as patriotic and honest. Official Yerevan created this situation essentially because they want to use the West against Russia and use Russia against the West. It's all about survival and making a few dollars along the way. But what they have instead managed to do is create a situation where both the West and Russia are unhappy with Armenia. They have also created a political landscape that is now utterly saturated with Western agents. And this in turn has created a situation where Armenia is neglecting its two most important neighbors - Russia and Iran - in favor of kissing Western asses.

      Official Yerevan is trying to be "shrewd" but such behavior belongs in a Middle Eastern bazaar; not in geopolitics, not in the south Caucasus, not against Russia.

      In the big picture, I like President Sargsyan simply because he is the lesser evil. That said, he is very weak and he seriously lacks political/strategic foresight. Moreover, he has surrounded himself with Western trained officials and he has given Armenia's Western activists a free hand in the country. As a result of all this, Armenia today is like a rudderless boat aimlessly drifting into a dangerous storm.

      When it comes to Armenian officials, I have learned to respect our former president, Robert Kocharyan. The following link is to an interview President Kocharyan gave to the CIA-sponsored Radio Liberty late last year. This is a man that feels firmly grounded in Russia, he doesn't like to kiss ass, he knows what he wants and he tells it like it is. We need a man like him back in power -

      Russia & Me: Robert Kocharian: http://www.rferl.org/media/video/robert-kocharia-russia-armenia/27566960.html

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    2. Longtime readerMay 3, 2016 at 4:45 PM

      Arevordi, not just officials many Armenians today begining to think Armenia will be safer in NATO because NATO countries dont fight oneanother. I guess these people don't know Turkey is also NATO member, if Armenia is NATO member Turks will have lot of influence over Armenia like they have over Georgia.

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    3. ArevordiMay 3, 2016 at 7:44 PM

      Yes, I know. I have also noticed increasing chatter about this. This kind of talk is put out by our Western agents and regurgitated by our idiots. Unfortunately, we have an army of Western agents and a surplus of idiots. So, stuff like this is inevitable. Armenia today is so full of shit, it will require a high-colonic to cleanse it. I therefore expect Russia to spill some blood in Armenia if this kind of self-destructive behavior continues unchecked. Those who have a problem with me saying this can go and fuck themselves. To me, Armenia's life is more important than an Armenian's life.

      With the prevailing geopolitical climate in the south Caucasus region, I'm afraid the only thing that will save Armenia at this point is Russia's powerful hand in the country. The problem in the region is on a global scale. It's a clash between superpowers. The south Caucasus is the battlefield where Russia (and to a lesser extent Iran) are fighting the Anglo-American-Jewish world order and its Turkic/Islamic allies. At this point in time, Armenians per se have little to do with Armenia's existence as a nation-state. Armenia is existing because of its alliance with Russia. Armenia's life depends on whether or not Russia will be victorious in this war of civilizations. We all therefore need to pray that Russia comes out standing once this nightmare is over; I don't even want to think of an alternative.

      Anyway, you seem to understand the gist of the matter. Ultimately: Armenia's independence from Russia will result in Armenia's dependence on Turkey. People who don't see this are either Western agents or idiots. Theoretically: Even if we were to join NATO - by the time NATO bureaucracy gets around to finalizing the membership process with Armenia, by the time NATO and Moscow finish their quarreling over Armenia - Armenia will most probably be laid waste by Russians. There is a thing called "scorched earth" policy when a military is in retreat, and Russians are the masters of it. Armenia will no doubt be their scorched earth. At the very least, we will lose all of Artsakh in a major, bloody war with Azerbaijan.

      The thought of NATO membership for Armenia is so absurd, so unreal, so outlandish, I can't wrap my mind around it no matter how hard I try. I mean, how stupid, how psychotic or how treasonous must one must be to even think about it, especially at this point in time?

      Armenia (and Artsakh) lives today as a result of its alliance with Russia, yet there are increasing numbers of Armenians entertaining absurd thoughts about abandoning Russia?!

      It's fucking amazing! It's so easy to see why we have been a worthless group of gypsie-like people for the past one thousand years. If Armenians are stupid enough, suicidal enough to abandon Russia and seek joining Western powers, not only do Armenians not deserve statehood, Armenians actually deserve another genocide.

      If I tell you, don't put your hand into that fire because you will get your hand badly burned - and I even show you pictures of what has happened to people who have put their hands in fire - and you still put your hand in that fire, they you deserve losing your hand. I have said this a million times, I will probably day it another millions times before I die: Armenians are one of the most troublesome and self-destructive peoples I know. You would have to go to the remotes Arabian desert village or travel to the deepest African jungle to find a tribe of people more politically ignorant than us. Sadly, it's all genetic and cultural: We as a people are too emotional; too arrogant; too proud; too ostentatious; too jealous; too competitive; too materialistic; too maximalistic; too gluttonous; too impatient; too individualistic; too clannish; too shortsighted; too naive...

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    4. Razmik ArtashesMay 3, 2016 at 10:13 PM

      History has shown that whenever Armenians got their act together and tamed those negative traits, they would turn out successful. Nowadays, there is something missing. A collective understanding of who we really are and what are we destined to do. Left alone, our negative traits take over us, both in the homeland and outside. And unfortunately, I do not see any individual, organization, or the state even think of re-creating a collective identity, sort of like a set of "codes" that all Armenians should follow. What we have instead are yearly meetings in Armenia of Diasporans and locals, where a particular conference or seminar takes place, then they all go to one of the restaurants on the Hrazdan river, sing, dance, recite 'bajakachars' and be done with it, having concluded to themselves that they've done their patriotic 'duty'.

      Anyway, the least that we could do, as in readers of this blog and the commenters, is to take the responsibility on ourselves first, as Armenian individuals. Let us improve ourselves and let us try to educate the people close to us, our friends, relatives. I know it sounds like nothing much, but that is a first step we can take.

      PS if you want to distinguish a genuine patriot from a fake one, ask them the following question: "Supposingly Turkey gave us Western Armenia tomorrow, and the opportunity to land grabbing is there. Will you be ready to go and settle there partially or permanently TOMORROW?". All of a sudden they'll hesitate for a moment, and understand that screaming "We demand our lands!" on April 24 bears some responsibility... I will most probably make a post on this subject matter in the near future.

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    5. aaaMay 4, 2016 at 12:45 AM

      Foolish thoughts and imbecilic expressions of Armenia joining NATO, or the Eu, in some kind of associated clap trap. There is enough political sense and phyletic memory for serious minded Armenians to dispel such self destructive notions. Also, Russia will not allow it. The RF can at any time pull the rug from under the feet of these day dreamers. What some sectors in the political spectrum are doing is a disingenuous way to create the impression they can act politically independent. It is a bankrupt mindset. The political class is cognizant of their limitations in so far independence and sovereignty are concerned. Only irrational and insane maniacs would countenance breaking away from the RF to fall into the deadly embraces of the Eu or NATO, being swallowed up in the Turkic Hades. If the RF perceives a threat in that direction, in less than 24 hours they can effect a " regime change".

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    6. aaaMay 5, 2016 at 1:33 AM

      There are reports of massive Az military build up on the contact line. It is time now for the recognition of Nkr as an integral part of Armenian, or be recognized as an independent nation. There is no diplomatic solution to this impasse. Nalbandian can keep touring the western capitals spewing and receiving balderdash and diplomatic niceties, he is doing his job as a grand tourist. The Nkr issue will be solved on the battlefield. Russia will only get involved is Armenian territorial integrity is threatened. The de Jure status of NKR has to be declared. It is inconceivable that the opposition is tabling this motion of recognition or integration. The government must take the initiative. It will finally scotch any stupid and inane hallucinations of the Russophobes to renounce subversive activities and treacherous sedition on behalf of the America- Israel stratagems in the region. Armenia needs to concentrate in dealing with enemy number one and not dissipate energies in pursuing a non realistic alignment with the far west. As a matter of fact the political landscape needs a thorough purge of its toxic elements. Democracy, the aberrant kind of contemporary democracy, is not a fit for Armenia. Nationalism is the soul of spiritual essence. However for a purging of the democratic cesspool in which Armenian politics wallows one needs a strong and purpose leadership.

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    7. ArevordiMay 5, 2016 at 2:06 AM

      I agree. The time for recognition has come. Not doing so made sense when there was not a war-like situation on the border. Baku's belligerence and aggression leaves Armenia no choice. Russian officials have hinted in the past that Yerevan should be the first to recognize Artsakh. But our officials have taken such hints as a possible trap. Moreover, our officials want to play nice with Western powers who have invested tens-of-billions of dollars in Azerbaijan. Armenia's diplomatic corps should be invading Moscow and making deals, but they are busy kissing Western asses.

      Use Crimea, Abkhazia and Ossetia as a precedent, promise the Russian Bear a permanent military presence in Artskah, also tell him Armenia will curb its Western agents and just go ahead and annex Artsakh. We know Azerbaijan is powerless against Armenia/Artsakh, we know that Turks are in no shape to invade Armenia.

      Baku is employing against us a strategy known as "death by a thousand cuts". We are slowly bleeding. We cannot tolerate this much longer. Take the initiative, force Moscow's hand, recognize Artsakh and mobilize all your assets for a war.

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    8. LGMay 5, 2016 at 7:09 AM

      Arevordi,

      You know that Serj and co are reactive creatures. They will not take the initiative. When they sent Tigran to DC to be the new ambassador his mission was to keep relations with USA at same level, not really increase and certainly not decrease. Same is true with the current ambassador, but he seems to be more engaging and less of a pompous ass. This is an indicator that Serj administration is passive and hence reactive.

      Also, they lack a clear cut grand strategy. In essence they want to remain in power, keep azerbaijan and turkey on their side of the border, and let the status quo reign in Artsakh. Serj showed he was reactive when he made the about face in 2013 regarding Armenia's decision to join the Eurasian Union. One can argue he took his time to gain concessions from one or both sides. Perhaps that is the case. The fact remains though that he let few in on his strategy and caught a number of high ranking Armenian officials off guard too. And he certainly did not prepare the Armenian public for such a move. Which in turn opened him up to criticism from the western funded scum.

      Also, his refusal to recall the treaty with turkey from parliament until April of last year was another failure in my opinion. It was clear by 2011 that no progress was going to be made with turkey. Yet he waited till a few weeks before April 24, 2015.

      Expect Sargsyan administration to recognize Artsakh when baku launches another war, not a moment before.

      I will add one positive thing. The lack of condemnation of the barbaric treatment of deceased Armenian soldiers from the west, and the lack of pressure on baku to implement any confidence building measures like removing snipers, has really opened the eyes of a number of Armenian officials to the apathetic attitude of the west to our issues. It is like you said before, if the west spits on Armenians they deserve it for kowtowing to the west in the first place.

      I hope we see wisdom take root within our leadership in Yerevan.

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    9. LGMay 6, 2016 at 1:42 AM

      [...]

      Both Baku and Yerevan protested Russian arms sales to the other party (see EDM, April 14), but with little success. After the early-April clashes in Karabakh, Armenian officials and the public called for Russia to stop supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, alleging they were being used against Armenian soldiers. But Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced Russia will continue to sell arms to both sides: “If we will not, others will step it, which will make things worse and possibly destroy the present balance in the region” (Interfax, April 9).

      In the “four-day war,” Armenian forces in Karabakh lost territory and officially declared 92 servicemen had died in action (RIA Novosti, April 13). Azerbaijani heavy guns reportedly devastated Armenian frontline fortifications. The TOS-1A “Sunburn” delivered thermobaric ordinance, also known as fuel or vacuum “bombs,” which scorched the Armenian soldiers in their dugouts and bunkers—a tactic first massively used by the Russian military in the Second Chechen war, in 2000–2001, and now in Syria, in Latakia province and in Palmira (see EDM, April 6, 14).

      Sargsyan fired several top generals allegedly responsible for failing to report the concentration of heavy Azerbaijani weapons, including TOS-1A close to the LoC. Armenian forces also suffered from an apparent breakdown in command and control as well as a lack of supplies to treat the many soldiers with severe burns inflicted by the attacking enemy TOS-1As (Kommersant, April 26).

      The Azerbaijani offensive on April 2 seems to have been primarily intended to achieve a tactical victory and to heighten patriotism in a population badly hit by falling oil and natural gas prices. Both goals were achieved, but the temptation seems high in Baku to continue to press its apparent military advantage. In preparation for war, Azerbaijan closely cooperated with Israel to modernize its military, acquire reconnaissance and attack drones as well as medium- and long-range (150 kilometers) missiles with GPS targeting capabilities, modernize its T-72 tanks for modern warfare, and to procuring other modern weaponry.

      In drone equipment and in network-centric warfare capabilities, Azerbaijan today exceeds the Armenian military; the latter is armed with mostly heavy Soviet weaponry of the 1980s. During the “four-day war,” Azerbaijan’s forces reportedly scored several high-value precision hits, humiliating their Armenian opponents (Interfax, April 7).

      To survive politically, Sargsyan cannot show any weakness, cannot negotiate any concessions, and must soon score some victory (military or political) to counter the Azerbaijani successes. This week, the Armenian government had reportedly approved and sent to parliament a resolution recognizing the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s independence—a move that could have triggered a regional war. Later the Armenian authorities apparently backpedaled, announcing the independence resolution would be postponed and enacted only if major fighting resumes in Karabakh (Interfax, May 5).

      The temptation to use force seems to dominate both sides of the Karabakh dispute, while negotiations are deadlocked and the influence of outside powers is limited. Moscow’s proclaimed attempt to balance Baku against Yerevan is faltering and may have backfired by straining relations with both sides. An all-out regional war hangs in the balance and could drag in outside powers—Russia and Turkey, which are already at loggerheads over Syria.

      Meanwhile, both Moscow and Washington are, today, already deeply involved in numerous acute conflicts worldwide. Thus, the ability of Lavrov and his US counterpart, John Kerry, to effectively manage them all at once may be simply strained to the hilt.

      --Pavel Felgenhauer

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  25. ArevordiMay 4, 2016 at 12:51 AM

    Վերջապես երկու խելքը-գլխին մարդ եմ գտել: Փայլուն վերլուծություն, դիտեք տեսահոլովակները ամբողջությամբ -

    21-րդ դարում մեր սահմանը մնացել է բանկա-բութուլկայի մակարդակի, անհարմար է չէ՞: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQZzpJz6jik

    Թարմ ուղեղով՝ Երվանդ Բոզոյանի հետ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6zBNIMlkcU

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    1. Dr. TKMay 4, 2016 at 12:57 AM

      Please note that on this interview Kazimirov (former osce rep from Russia) says that initially USA insisted on 3 co-chairs being Russia, USA and Turkey. They even had 2 meetings in that format upon which Russia told USA that Turkey is one sided and will not continue dialog in that format. This is when I guess France came into the picture.

      Кто поджег Нагорный Карабах? [Русский ответ]: https://youtu.be/90S5FsczYdw

      Яков Кедми: Армия Нагорного Карабаха достойна уважения: https://youtu.be/HI1L8psj_dE

      Россия может не лучший друг, но всегда придет на помощь. Владимир Соловьев: https://youtu.be/YvM5razawg0


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  26. Mardig BidanianMay 4, 2016 at 5:47 PM

    The bottom line is the West doesn't value Armenia in a strategic sense and Russia does , even though I admire many Western values as I am from the diaspora(live in Montreal) the fact Russia values Armenia is more reason to align with Russia. As for security guarantees I agree with you regarding Georgia and Cyprus , I would also like to add the example of Rwanda when French and Belgian peacekeepers withdrew just as the massacres of Tutsis was starting. The West will intervene if they value your country like Kuwait or South Korea. Armenians should also think in terms of logistics how is any Western country in an event of a war going to intervene in a nation remote as Armenia , and think about it this way the only Western-aligned nation in the region is Turkey , would Armenians depend on Turkey for their security. That's how absurd it is

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    1. ArevordiMay 5, 2016 at 12:11 AM

      Thank you for your comment, Mardig.

      Please know that I see myself as a westernized Armenian. But let's recognize that there is a difference between traditional western values such as egalitarianism, civic activism, the appreciation of law and order, individual freedoms and entrepreneurism and modern western "values" such as multiculturalism, liberalism, globalism, democracy, interracialism, feminism and homosexuality that the Anglo-American-Jewish order tries to promote around the world. The former values (which I see myself as being a part of) are what that made the western world a great civilization, the latter "values" are currently destroying western civilization.

      As far as how the West views Armenia: Let's just admit that Armenia is too small, too remote, too landlocked, too impoverished, too resourceless and it has too many problems within its neighborhood to attract Western powers in any meaningful way. Moreover, Armenia's enemies - Turks and Azeris (and I would even say Georgians) - are their friends and Armenia's friends - Russians and Iranians - are their enemies. It just wont work out.

      Also, be careful of saying stuff like Western powers will intervene only when they value your country.

      Western-financed Armenian activists are hard trying to convince us that we should be promoting ourselves to Western powers so that they would value us. And one of the things they want us to do to gain Western favor is to expel Russian troops out of Armenia and change the government. In other words: They want a color revolution in the country to appease Western powers and gain their favor. Western agents like Paruyr Hayrikian say only then will Western powers come to Armenia's aid. Because our people's political illiteracy and emotional problems, this message is gaining traction.

      We are told that for Western powers to see "value" in Armenia, Armenia has fully come out of the Russian orbit. In other words: Make Armenia dangerously exposed in a very violent environment and hope that Western powers will come to our aid. Trust me: Armenia/Artsakh will NOT survive the experimental process. So, the "value" factor may work for Kuwait and South Korea but it won't work in Armenia's case.

      We must be wise enough to recognize that regardless of anything else, Western nations will ALWAYS remain FARAWAY powers for Armenia. The West's presence in our region will only be a part of its desire to exploit the region's energy and isolate Russia and Iran. Their relationship with us will therefore only be assessed from this angle and context. In other words, our region is not vital for the Western world's survival. If things get difficult, the West will quickly abandon the region. We saw them do this in the summer of 2008.

      For Moscow (and to a lesser extent Tehran), the south Caucasus is Russia's first line of defense. If there is a war in the region, Russians troops will be fighting and dying for the region. For Russia to abandon the region, there will have to be a historic calamity inside Russia itself; like the Bolshevik revolution back in 1917, and even that proved short lived as Bolshevik forces were soon back in Armenia.

      Anyway, Armenians are once again placing hope on far way powers who careless about Armenia. I can't fully explain why we still keep doing this. We have made these types of fundamental mistake going back at least two thousand years. For two thousand years we have neglected our most immediate neighborhood (e.g. Persia, Byzantium) for better relations with faraway powers (e.g. Rome, Crusaders). The Armenian liberation movement made similar mistakes in the late 19th century early 20th century, when it was not only rebelling against Ottoman rule but also against the Russian Empire. The ARF made similar mistakes during the first republic, when it refused to deal with Bolsheviks because it was counting on support from England, France and the US.

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    2. Mardig BidanianMay 5, 2016 at 1:39 AM

      Hi Averodi , thanks for the reply . I agree with you obviously that Armenia is much safer under the Russian orbit , in fact I would also go as far as saying that the whole South Caucasus would be safer under the Russian orbit. This isnt because the Russians are nice or they love the people of the region so much it is because their national security depends on a stable Caucasus. That means no war in Nagarno-Karabakh , South Osssetia , Dagestan you have you. That means conflicts would not go out of hand.
      As for Armenians being emotional or irrational cant the same be said for the laudary list of countries who have been ruined because they pinned their hopes on the West , I remember I mentioned Rwanda in my previous comment , however another great example is South Vietnam where the US literally abandoned them the the North Vietnamese. Obviously that took 2 years to happen. Howver a more appropraite example would be our Georgian neighbours where ever since their independence they have remained loyal to the West commited to eventual integration with the EU and NATO and Obama told Georgia last year not to even consider joining NATO. Secondly talks of NATO integration put Georgia in more danger as that put a target on their backs of potential Russian backlash. I think Saakashvilli wanted to have his cake and eat it too in the sense he wanted Abkhazia and South Ossetia back while taking on Russia , while being allegedely backed by the West their assistance never came. The point is they have repeated a failed policy over and over again. Hell at least Armenia gets boots on the ground with Russia plus anti-aircraft defences which explains why Turkey doesnt violate Armenian airspace as frequently as it violates Greek airspace. I also think its not a coincidence that all of the post-Soviet ethnic conflicts broke out AFTER the USSR collapse ie.after the grip of Moscow was released to a certain extent.I think eventually all sides in these conflicts would need to compromise. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/27/obama-tells-georgia-to-forget-about-nato-after-encouraging-it-to-join.html
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/1447900/Shevardnadze-feels-betrayed-by-the-West.html

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    3. ArevordiMay 5, 2016 at 6:09 AM

      Mardig,

      A Russian victory is the only way to pacify the south Caucasus and allow the region to maintain a Christian/Armenian presence. I call this "Pax Russicana". As long as the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance and their Turkic/Islamic allies have a foothold in the south Caucasus, Armenia will be one bad incident away from another man made calamity. The 25 years old tug-of-war over the region between Russia and the West needs to end with a Russian victory, if we are to have an environment in the south Caucasus that will support Armenian life.

      In your list of nations betrayed/abandoned by the West, you forgot to mention Greeks and Ukraine.

      Greece has for generations been fully in the Western orbit. Greece is a member of NATO and the EU. Yet, Western powers have always sided with Turks against Greek interests. Turks have invaded Greek islands, murdered Greek soldiers and they regularly violate Greek airspace. And they have done it all with total immunity. Let's also not forget Turkey's invasion and occupation of northern Cyprus. More recently, Greece has been utterly ransacked by Western banks. Fully within the Western orbit, Greece has been reduced to a rump state.

      Ukraine is a failed state today because they wanted to be a part of the "Western world". Ukraine has disintegrated because they wanted to feel like "Westerns". Their Western funded activists and their political illiteracy coupled with their blind hatred of Russians has utterly destroyed their country. Crimea is now back under Russian ownership and Novorossiya has gone through Karabakhization. And all those promises Western powers were making them have all but vanished.

      Armenians need to look at nations like Serbia, Greece, Ukraine and Georgia and realize that such a foolish path would be MORE disastrous for Armenia. Unlike the aforementioned nations, our tiny homeland has no direct access to Europe and it is blockaded by two Turkic/Islamic neighbors. Any move towards the West by Yerevan will prove disastrous. Unlike Ukrainians, Greeks, Serbians, Georgians and even the Vietnamese for that matter, we Armenians simply wont survive a similar mistake.

      It is very troubling for me that I find myself periodically talking about this topic, a topic that should be common knowledge for all Armenians. Just think: We saw what happened to Georgians and Ukrainians when they tried to break our of Moscow's orbit, yet we have increasing numbers idiots today who are thinking exactly along those lines - knowing full well that Turks and Azeris are impatiently waiting for us to do exactly that; break out of Russia's orbit.

      I think our ability to resist the recent Azeri assault may have given our idiots a false sense of power. Once again, it's the Armenian cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion. Our emotions, pride and arrogance is once again blinding us to the realities of the world we live in. It's never ceases to amaze me how childlike, how naive and how self-destructive we can be as a people.

      At the end of the day, any nation that is not an integral part of the Western world will end up getting betrayed by the Western world because the Anglo-American-Jewish order sees all other nations as either their feeding ground or their playground. At the end of the day, Russia is the ONLY nation on earth that will be adversely impacted if Armenia falls. Besides Armenians, Russia is the ONLY nation that will send troops to fight and die for Armenia.

      Armenia's fall will have absolutely no adverse impact on any Western power. And all those Western-funded freaks who are vociferously demanding that Russian troops leave Armenia, will be the first ones to flee the country when Turks mass troops on Armenia's borders.

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  27. AnonymousMay 5, 2016 at 7:51 AM

    Arevordi and everyone else <3

    here is CaspianReport's recap video of the 4 day battle and current status in Artsakh. It is an Azeri POV, but I'll be first to admit it was not as bad and biased as I initially thought it would be. Regardless, wise to observe their understanding and perspective. For those who aren't familiar, CaspianReport made a larger name for himself whenever his videos were regularly featured on the more popular and well known in alternative media cyber realm: StormCloudsGathering channel (Aaron Hawkins)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lWrGub9-_0

    .. other than that, I am enjoying reading most all of your comments and shared information very much.

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    1. Mardig BidanianMay 6, 2016 at 1:50 AM

      Yes I watched the Caspian Report view of Nagarno-Karabakh it was fairly objective I disagreed with him when he said that Armenian-AzerI relations were friendly but that's not the case he forgot to give historic context like Armenian-Tatar massacres of 1905 and the first Armenian-Azerbaijani war in 1918 . He used to be SeasnakeX before Caspian Report

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    2. ArevordiMay 6, 2016 at 4:33 AM

      Mardig,

      Tatars, Turks, Kurds, Iranians, etc., have been in the Caucasus region for centuries. If you put aside events of the late 19th and early 20th century (a time when both Russian and Turkish empires were in decline), we see that Armenians and the region's Muslims lived "relatively" normal lives, although Christian Armenians were always second class citizens in Muslim society. This centuries old status quo began crumbling and ethnic tensions began rising when Ottoman and Russian empires were in their decline. During Soviet times, the relative normalcy had returned. Decline of Soviet empire, problems returned. Lesson? The region has way too many ethnic and religious groups, the region therefore needs a powerful hand over it. From an Armenian perspective, we want that powerful hand to be a Russian hand.

      Sean,

      Thanks for the video link. I find myself in agreement with perhaps 90% of what the narrator of the Caspian Report says. It's a very competent analysis from a well informed, well intentioned Azeri perspective. If what he says about Stalin drawing the borders of Nagorno Karabakh so that Armenians would be the majority in the region is accurate... I may have even learned something.

      Anyway, that said, there are minor flaws in his analysis: Anyone that knows anything about Armenian politics knows that Armenia's politics/geopolitics is not in "Russia's hand". Moreover, the narrator contradicts himself when he say Moscow thinks Baku is more "valuable", which he says is "most noticeable in Russian arms supplies to Azerbaijan", then goes on to suggest that Moscow will intervene on Armenia's side if Baku crosses the line.

      I would have believed him about Baku's "value" if Russia was not giving Armenia access to modern arms to counter those it is selling to Baku. In my opinion, Russian arms supplies to Baku has NOTHING to do with Moscow seeing Baku as a more valuable ally. If we consider Azerbaijan's size, location and energy wealth, it becomes quite apparent that Moscow in fact values Armenia's alliance more than that of Azerbaijan's because Russians know that Armenians are more reliable allies. Moreover, Moscow knows that Artsakh is like a sledgehammer hanging over Azeri heads.

      Anyway, if not for a couple of analytical flaws, it's a very sober minded and competent summary of the situation.

      Delete
  28. GevMay 5, 2016 at 8:43 PM

    I was talking to a friend in Armenia. I wont mention who the person is. Let's just say that something big will be happening in our region.

    1. The recent military drills in Russia bordering Azerbaijan was no coincidence.

    2. 102 Base is involved.

    I can't say much more. I will say just one more thing. 'Every single weapon in our arsenal is ready to go. One more thing. Those of you that heard/remember Seyran Ohanyan saying a few months back...we either respect ceasefire or... well or I hear from us.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Boch@May 7, 2016 at 12:19 AM

    Prime Minister of Turkey Davutoglu has quit from his office. Some problems with Erdogans big plans. May be on a next war steps in Syria and the Caucasus? Connecting this facts when Trump has won the republican primaries the global elite could be needing an Afghanistan style war starting now before Donald can win because he will be forced to clash with Russia or being signaled as a traitor. Ukraine was well managed by Russia, central Asia needs a lot of development. Artsakh is the best choice for them and has the potential to achieve a lot of the global elite goals. What do you think?

    I've been thinking about this: If Azerbaijan gets the green light from Washington and they launch a full attack over Artsakh forcing Armenia to go in full scale and target Baku or something in that style giving Turkey the excuse to intervene. Or may be the intervene indirectly but so strong with Isis style forcing Russia to intervene directly in some how in a way they couldn't make the Ukrainian style. I don't know may be I m too scared of what can happens because as you said so many times, we cant afford war and Russia is still vulnerable.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Romanian AnonymusMay 7, 2016 at 7:55 AM

    @Baku should be put within the Russian orbit

    Apparently the things move faster than expected:

    "All but overlooked by Western mainstream media in their focus on the recent flare-up of military tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the simmering conflict over the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is the announcement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, following talks with his Iranian counterpart, that work will now begin on a long-discussed North-South Transportation Corridor along the Caspian Sea. Significant is the fact that Azerbaijan has also agreed to participate in the project. If so, it suggests that Russian diplomacy and economic infrastructure development have again trumped the Washington urge for wars everywhere to hold their grip on an eroding global superpower hegemony...
    Now with the Teheran-Moscow Corridor Iran closes the Golden Triangle, Beijing-Teheran-Moscow, a major economic and geopolitical advance...
    Completion of the North-South Transport Corridor will significantly transform the economic space of all Eurasia...
    The Corridor will be a modern ship, rail, and road route to move freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and on–potentially if the EU states ever become sensible and drop support for Ukraine’s war government and drop EU sanctions on Russia–to the ailing economies of the European Union. The new corridor will connect some of the world’s largest cities including Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran on to Iran’s Caspian Port of Bandar Anzali and from there on to Russia’s Caspian port Astrakhan that is at the mouth of the great Volga River....
    The US coup d’état in February, 2014 in Ukraine, installing the US State Department’s hand-picked gaggle of “pro-Washington” corrupt oligarchs and neo-Nazis to disrupt relations between Russia and the EU, temporarily forced the North-South Transport Corridor plans on to a back-burner. Now, as the reality of the China Eurasian One Belt, One Road Great Project takes on concrete form, the addition of the Iran-Azerbaijan-Russia North-South Transport Corridor creates an integral economic, political and militarily coherent space that may soon auger in what future historians will call the Eurasian Century, as the American Century and its post-1944 world hegemony crumbles much as the Roman Empire in the Fourth Century AD. Again, the East creates while all the West seems able to do with success is to destroy."

    F. William Engdahl@http://journal-neo.org/2016/05/06/russia-iran-azerbaijan-agree-on-game-changing-transportation-corridor/


    ReplyDelete
  31. LGMay 7, 2016 at 10:51 PM

    Here is the Armenophobic and Russophobic Jamestown foundation's so called head military analysts take on the recent fighting between Artsakh and Azerbaijan.

    I counted at least 5 or 6 half truths or outright bs.

    An Unfrozen Karabakh Threatens to Ignite Entire Region

    The Azerbaijani-Armenian confrontation over Azerbaijan’s breakaway territory of Karabakh has been simmering for years. The 1994 ceasefire was broken time and again, soldiers on both sides were killed year after year, and all attempts to find a political solution to the conflict ended in deadlock; but the outside world paid little attention. There were always more important issues in the greater Middle East, in East Asia, in Ukraine, in the Balkans, in the Baltics, or between neighboring Georgia and Russia. But last month, on April 2, the Karabakh standoff suddenly erupted. Skirmishes along the line of conflict (LoC) escalated into full-scale battles, and Azerbaijani forces went on the offensive, taking a number of Armenian frontline positions while successfully repulsing Armenian counterattacks. By April 5, the so-called “four-day war” was essentially over—both sides agreed to a ceasefire, though skirmishes along the LoC continued. The Azerbaijani military continued to hold on to some of its captured frontline positions—much to the Armenians’ embarrassment (Vlast, April 9).

    But Karabakh has again begun to slip from the limelight, with the international community apparently believing Moscow could use its considerable influence in both Yerevan and Baku to force the warring parties to the negotiating table and somehow keep a semblance of peace. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to the two regional capitals with new peace proposals from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group (co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States). However, he failed to restart negotiations. According to informed sources in Moscow, Azerbaijan is eager to talk, believing tactical successes during the “four-day war” gave its government a strong negotiating advantage. The Armenians, apparently for the same reason, refused to talk. Both sides remain on a war footing. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan reportedly conveyed to Lavrov Armenian displeasure with Moscow’s policy of balancing between Baku and Yerevan. Moreover, he refused to allow Russian peacekeepers into Karabakh (Kommersant, April 26).

    Armenia is a long-time Russian ally, a member of the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union. But Russia’s interests in the post-Soviet South Caucasus include Georgia and Azerbaijan, together with Armenia. Moscow seemingly wants to dominate the entire region, up to the former Soviet border with Turkey and Iran. Unequivocally taking sides in the Karabakh confrontation would not serve Russian long-term intentions. Russia has been selling large quantities of heavy armaments to Azerbaijan and providing Armenia lesser amounts and less-advanced heavy weapons—though either for free or on long-term credit, which will unlikely ever be repaid by this impoverished land-locked South Caucasus state. Last February, Russia gave Armenia a $200 million credit to buy new weapons, reportedly including long-range “Smerch” multiple rocket launch systems (MRLS), TOS-1A “Sunburn” heavy flamethrowers, and other weapons. Azerbaijan, using its oil wealth, reportedly procured some $4 billion worth of Russian weapons, including new S-300PMU2 and TOR-M2 antiaircraft missiles, hundreds of T-90C tanks, long-range heavy artillery, “Smerch” and TOS-1A systems, attack and transport helicopters, as well as other items. Armenia also has S-300PS missile systems—an older, non-digital, Cold War–era variant, granted by Russia (Vedomosti, February 25).

    [...]

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  32. ArevordiMay 7, 2016 at 11:00 PM

    Dear readers,

    I have revised, updated and amended the current blog entry. I ask all my readers to please revisit my work. I realize it's long, but it will be up for a while longer. You can read one section at a time. But please read it. I rather you read my work in full and disagree with me, than agree with me but not fully read my work.

    We as a people need political awareness, clear vision, foresight and unity. We also need to be politically proactive, each of us in our own way. Please understand that these are historic times. We may be actually in the preliminary stages of a world war. The post-Soviet political order in the world is gradually changing. The Middle East is in the process of being redesigned. Consequently, major powers are clashing - thus far - through proxies.

    Our tiny, impoverished, remote, landlocked and blockaded homeland is on the front-lines of this global conflagration.

    Armenia won't survive the coming war without the Russian Bear at its side. That's a fact, and that's a fact many of us Armenians today are failing to take into serious consideration because our attention is constantly being drawn Westwards by an army of Western agents in our midst. We better wake up and realize that our actions today, our decisions today will be felt by Armenia for many decades to come. More importantly, let's also recognize that the south Caucasus is a harsh and unforgiving place. Bad decisions we make may therefore result in the destruction of Armenia once again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Arto1May 9, 2016 at 11:12 PM

      Arevordi,

      I always think of myself as an Armenian nationalist but I just don't see how Armenia can survive without Russian support. It's not like were in Europe somewhere between Russia on one side and Austria on the other, our neighbors are mostly Muslims and Turks even in Iran's border aera with Armneia they are mostly Azeris. I don't think we can afford full independence. We don't have to like Russians but we have to understand we need them and like you say use them to develop our small country. Anyway my friend we are living in historical times, are we even in control? Things beginning to take on a life of its own. Maybe the gods are in control. PS: I think you are more of a political philosopher than a cyber activist like you claim to be. Just know I appreciate your time and effort you put in this blog.

      PS: One more thing Arevordi. I was talking to a friend in New Jersey and I discovered he reads you blog regularly. So just want to let you know you do have far reach so dont stop what your doing.

      Delete
    2. ArevordiMay 9, 2016 at 11:56 PM

      Arto jan,

      I have been called many names in the past (e.g. KGB agent, Putin's slave, Russophile, traitor, asshole, etc.) but never "political philosopher". I like it! Thank you.

      Anyway, if you recall, about 2/3 years ago when Yerevan shocked everyone by announcing Armenia willingness to join Russia's EEU, I said we can expect our Western agents to begin appealing to the emotions/sensibilities of our nationalist. I wish I can say I was wrong. Ever since Armenia first signaled its willingness to join the Russian led EEU, Armenian news media and Armenian cyberspace has been flooded with comments like, "Russia is taking over Armenia". More recently, the comments have more-or-less morphed into, "now that Putin has fully occupied Armenia, he will give Artsakh to the Azeris".

      Because nationalists don't to tend to be very intelligent (in any society), the effort by our Western agents is beginning to have a noticeable effect. The most nationalistic websites, newspapers and organizations in our society today is replete with mind-numbing stupidity and Russophobia. It's getting so bad now that I am embarrassed to even be associated with Armenian nationalism.

      I had seen myself as a patriot/nationalist for most of my life. I have to be honest with you and say, I no longer feel that way. In recent years I have realized that nationalism per se can pose a serious danger to Armenia. I now would rather call myself a pragmatic nationalist who wants to see Armenia enter into a deeper alliance with the Russian Federation.

      I want NOTHING to do with the - պատրոնդաշ կապած - kind of nationalism we are seeing so much of in our society these days. That kind of nationalism saved the day 25 years ago, but the same has the potential to pose a serious danger to Armenia today.

      Delete
    3. Arto1May 11, 2016 at 3:08 AM

      Arevordi jan,

      Any body that can take a few main geopolitical concepts and use it as a basis to write a thousand page analysis every month has to be a political philosopher :) Seriously tough thats how I see you, your work has lots of philosophical value even if I don't agree with some things you say (like when you constantly talk down on Armenian behaviors). We need unity and tolerance towards each other because we are living in dangerous times. Like you said Russians wont spoon feed us we have to build Armenia, that's why we need to come together. Anyway it looks like this year will make a lot of things clear. Btw, I also consider myself a patriots but definitely not like the պատրոնդաշ կապած kind LOL

      Delete
  33. AnonymousMay 9, 2016 at 1:32 PM

    Dear Arevordi and readers of TROR, I would like to invite anyone of you with a facebook account to please 'Like' this page and invite your buddy lists to support as well <3

    https://www.facebook.com/armeniangenocide101

    Nearly half of the posts consist of Arevordi's commentaries from this blog which I have turned into articles/posts with appealing artwork/visuals attached. Please take a moment to scan through it, with or without an account.

    Other than TROR, we unfortunately have no other solid 'platforms' in the alternative media world (english speaking) and no real opposition to the heavily degenerate/Westernized Armenian social groups/pages in the realm of social media networking. 3 years plus, I have been a 'keyboard warrior' and 'armchair activist' on FB and rarely ever saw a single post shared from this blog. So I repeat, we strongly/desperately need another platform to get this information/perspective across and into the minds of the misdirected youth..
    .. which brings me to the quick question about Bedros Hajian: What are some of your thoughts, since he seems to be the only media outlet who more than 'scratches the surfaces' of the forbidden/hidden/taboo subjects.?. Anyways, thank you for responding to my previous comment (Arevordi & Mardig Bidanian) and look forward to developing our cause furthermore.

    Have a Happy Victory Day and blessings to you all

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    Replies
    1. ArevordiMay 10, 2016 at 2:52 AM

      Sean,

      Please realize it will be an uphill - and a thankless - battle to educate a people as emotional, as arrogant, as stubborn, as envious, as competitive, as naive, as self-righteous and as politically illiterate as ours. The only things you can expect in abundance are insults and attacks by our sheeple as well as our self-destructive peasantry. So, you need to grow a thick skin and learn to have patience.

      Just know that I wear insults and attacks from idiots and traitors as badges of honor. The more they insult and attack, the more inspiration I get to do what I do. In fact, a lot of the energy I put into this blog comes from the years of insults and attacks that have been directed towards be.

      Moreover, I am sure you know that Western powers pour billions of dollars into their global propaganda machine. Our anthill therefore will never compare to their vast mountain. Our voices, regardless of how loud we shout, will not be heard by the vast majority of our people. But, we have to do what we have to do. We have no choice. We have no choice if we truly care for our homeland and our statehood.

      Armenians are again being mislead and Armenia today is in danger. A war is coming to our region. Armenia won't survive this war with the Russian Bear at our side. That's a fact. Another fact is, there is a very serious Western agenda to sour Russian-Armenian relations. This agenda is being pushed in our communities by Armenians in service of the Anglo-American-Jewish world order.

      Those of us with political awareness, clearness of vision and a burning desire to do something positive have no choice but to be proactive. So, thank you for your valiant effort. After all, we are not doing this for ourselves. We are not even doing this for Armenians per se. We are doing this for Armenia. People come and go. Governments come and go. The only thing that remains (or should remain) constant is Armenia.

      Please feel free to take anything I have written and use it in your effort to educate and reorient people. You can edit my work. You can amend my work. You can even put your name on my work. All I ask you not to do is to alter the message of my word.

      PS: The only thing I have seen of Bedros Hajian is his effort to bring to light the Jewish role in the Armenian Genocide. That is in itself is a vastly important task. I don't know much else about him.

      Delete
  34. LGMay 10, 2016 at 7:12 AM

    Various links related to Artsakh and the recent skirmishes.

    Թալիշի վերագրավված դիրքերում: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxjjr0jwCOQ

    17 мая 1994 Москва: НКР, Армения и Азербайджан: https://www.facebook.com/ando.martirosian.9/videos/234586303573435/?pnref=story

    Historical video from May 1994 talks in Moscow that solidified the cease-fire agreement in Karabakh mediated by then Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev. What one notices is that Armenian reps are nearly all civilians: Samvel Babayan (then 29) and Masis Mayilian (27) on behalf of NKR and Vazgen Sargsyan, Serzh Sargsyan, David Shahnazaryan on behalf of Republic of Armenia; the only exception is Capt. 1st Rank Vagharshak Harutyunyan, a Soviet Naval officer who was at the time Armenian military representative in Moscow. Also notable is that Azerbaijan’s defense minister at the time, Gen. Mamedrafi Mamedov was a Russian military officer of Azerbaijani descent seconded to Baku on request from Heydar Aliyev; in 1995 he returned to Russia.

    Below are the comments Tom de Waal and Tatul Hakobyan had in regards to the video above.

    Tom de Waal: Fascinating stuff, Emil. Thanks for sharing. Grachev was definitely running the show--or trying to. The question which has never been fully answered for me is What was the Armenian/NK position on a Russian peacekeeping force? As I recall from your book, Tatul Hakobyan, they were actually quite happy for the Azerbaijanis to veto it. Did I get that right? Would be interested in views of Masis, Gegham Baghdasaryan and others.

    Tatul Hakobyan: Dear Tom de Waal, as I know, Armenia's position was the following - because we are 100 percent know that Azerbaijan will say NO to Russian peacekeepers, we are not against. So, let as show Russians that we are not against but Azerbaijan is. But from the other hand, in December 1994, in OSCE Budapest summit, Armenia did her best to undermine the Kazimirov's proposal to send CIS, meaning Russian peacekeepers to the Karabakh war area. By the way, Russians sent their troops under the aegis of the CIS to the Abkhaz-Georgian zone in fall 1994. And in Budapest summit, we the Russian proposal was blocked by all states, including Armenia, one of the summit documents included a proposal to send international peacekeepers to the NK conflict zone and that is why the High Planning Group was established.

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  35. BetianMay 10, 2016 at 10:18 PM

    Some politician in Azerbaijan has made acerbic and genocidal statements with regards to the current crisis. This criminal in civilian clothes is proposing to blast the Medzamor nuclear plant and leave no Armenians alive, and no Armenians in Azerbaijan unless they accept to live under the Azeri heel. The maniac is also proposing to establish the capital in Stepanakert, once NKR is conquered by the Azzholes. Potent stuff emanating from the foul mouth of this psycopath. Disinformation or misinformation seems to be the staple diet in the Armenian media. They are critical of Armenia's accession to the EEUU, based on the premise that it would have guaranteed the security aspects. They keep conflating NKR and Armenia. Neither Russia nor the EEUU have any security responsibility for NKR. Russian alliance and strategies are restricted to Armenia's recognized territorial delimitations, in the legal sense. If Armenia annexes NKR or recognizes NKR's independence, then the subject matter of security can be expanded. In the current circumstances it is incongruous to expect Russia or the EEUU to rush overt military assistance to an unrecognized state. Admittedly there are some rotten apples in the EEUU, from which Armenia should expect nothing eg Lukhashenko and Nazerbayev; and these pathetic apples play in the hands Armenia's enemies. All the phalanx of critics and westernized poisoned divisions invariably fail to articulate and spell out the cornucopia of benefits --security, guarantees and what else--- to Armenia's EEUU alternatives. That is because there is no alternative.

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  36. LGMay 12, 2016 at 12:41 AM

    The first two articles are pro Azerbaijani. In essence, they claim Armenia either has or can make and use nuclear weapons against Azerbaijan. Last article is a statement that Hrant Bagratyan made regarding Armenia already being in possession of nuclear weapons.

    Either this is disinformation from our end or theirs. I tend to think it's from us. It serves 2 purposes: first it soothes Armenians into thinking we have a weapon that can change the game entirely to our favor should the need arise, and covers up the partial stupidity of the Sargsyan administration's foreign policy in recent years; 2nd it gives the enemy a moment of pause. Do they or do they not have the capability to make a nuke?

    Of course the Azerbaijanis can use it against Armenia and portray official Yerevan as a menace to the international community, which is what the first to articles I have linked to above are trying to do.

    The Frozen War That Threatens Global Energy Flows: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-frozen-war-threatens-global-energy-flows-16136

    The other nuclear threat: Armenia’s nuclear material could be used to arm a dirty bomb: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/3/alexander-murinson-armenias-nuclear-threat/

    Грант Багратян: У Армении есть атомное оружие: http://www.armtoday.info/default.asp?Lang=_Ru&NewsID=146035

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiMay 12, 2016 at 1:04 AM

      From what I recall, sometime in the late 1990s the famous Russian General Alexander Lebed suggested in an interview that Armenia may have had in its possession a "suitcase" nuclear bomb. It's been a persistent rumor since then. I agree with your two point. Hinting/suggesting that you have a nuclear device is powerful psy-ops against your enemy, and a very good PR at home.

      The following 2002 article discusses General Lebed and "suitcase" nuclear bombs, although it does not mention Armenia -

      Alexander Lebed and Suitcase Nukes: http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/News/Lebedbomb.html

      And here is a recent article by one of the world's largest nuclear powers complaining about Armenia's nuclear potential -

      Nuclear concerns in Armenia: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Nuclear-concerns-in-Armenia-453378

      Delete
  37. AnonymousMay 13, 2016 at 5:57 AM

    I just had to sign in to make this post because it brought my piss to beyond boil
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHVFtC3tru4
    ^ Eurovision bans Artsakh flag

    http://wiwibloggs.com/2016/04/29/eurovision-2016-flag-policy-released-includes-banned-list/139630/
    ^ list of acceptable flags (of course the perverted rainbow) and list of controversial/banned flags which include Artsakh & Palestinian (funny because Israel, who is nowhere in Europe and was actually protested against for their continues atrocities/illegal settlements/war crimes, enjoys full participation on the platform)which are in the same company as the bogus jihad Western created ISIL/IS flag. What a slap in the face (hopefully wake up call

    https://www.facebook.com/armeniangenocide101
    ^ I went on to make a post about it on the FB page, although I might have to edit it later since it was strictly reactionary

    .. other than that, thanks as always for replying, Arevordi, to my previous comment. It is indeed a strenuous uphill struggle. Btw, I heard Paypal is threatening to shut down the Southfront account, similar to how they threatened SyrianGirl Partisan couple of years ago

    ReplyDelete
  38. Arto1May 13, 2016 at 5:12 PM

    Arevordi,

    In your second paragraph you indirectly say the war was not a total victory for us but you don't discuss it. Did you mean the hill we lost? Curious to know what's zoravar's opinion on this topic.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. ArevordiMay 13, 2016 at 7:10 PM

      Arto,

      I felt somewhat uncomfortable talking about this topic while the situation on the eastern front was still unpredictable. Now that the line of contact has been properly reinforced I feel more comfortable pointing out a few of the tactical flaws I noticed during the war.

      1) We lost a lot of territory initially. Our military seemed to have gotten caught off guard, which suggests problems with our military intelligence. Most of the lost positions however were recovered in the ensuing days, but some remain in Azeri hands. Although Baku wanted much more, whatever little they did gain is still a plus for Baku.

      2) According to official accounts, we lost 14 tanks during the fighting. 14 tanks in a few days is a lot.

      3) Related to 2, Israeli-made attack drones were responsible for many of our tank loses. We currently do not have any countermeasures against these types of drones. We therefore remain vulnerable in this regard.

      4) Our troops did NOT destroy more than two dozen Azeri tanks, as claimed by our side. The only photo or video evidence we have thus far seen of Azeri hardware loses is one attack helicopter and one bridging tank. Had we indeed destroyed a number of Azeri tanks we would have already seen video and/or photo evidence of their wreckage in the fields.

      5) Related to 4, our officials were putting out a lot of false and misleading information (e.g. high number of Azeri loses, insignificant territorial gains by Azerbaijan, claims that Azeris were using recently bought Russian weapons systems, etc). Which makes me wonder, what else have they lied about? There was too much choreography (boastful rhetoric, false information, scripted talk by troops being interviewed, etc.) for my taste.

      6) During the fighting I saw too many tanks near or on the front-lines without their protective reactive armor and without any camouflage netting. Our front line tanks were too exposed and too vulnerable, and we paid a high price for it.

      7) Although I respect their patriotism and courage, the hundreds/thousands of veterans that were haphazardly pouring into the front lines to assist the young soldiers there could have been (and in some cases were) more or a liability than an asset. There has to be another, more effective/efficient way to utilize their services. Besides which, in times of war, professional military units need to assist front line troops, not 50/60 year olds.

      8) Combat troops of professional armies tend to look and act like robots and military crews that operate weapons systems such as artillery batteries operate like machines. A lot of our soldiers I was seeing on the front lines in Artsakh looked quite laid-back... and a bit undisciplined. I would even say somewhat ill-prepared. I observed many soldiers casually smoking cigarettes near the front lines during the fighting. Newly conscripted units were sent near the front lines. Military hardware, as well as troops, were also clustered in very close proximity to each other. Many of the troops, including artillery crews, were not wearing helmets or flak jackets. The artillery men I saw in action didn't look very proficient/experienced. I don't like the haphazard way our troops continue to carry/handle firearms. Moreover, I saw too many conscripts wearing articles of clothing sent from home.

      All these can and do lead to unnecessary casualties and lack of combat effectiveness. In short: I saw and heard things that suggest a lack of discipline, organization and proficiency. In my opinion, our front line troops looked more like Middle Eastern armies like those we see in Syria and a paramilitary units like those we see in the Donbass.

      I'd like to emphasize here that I was not on the front lines. All my observations are based on what I have heard from a couple of individuals that have sons on or near the front lines, as well as what I have seen in the flood of photos and videos that have been released.

      Delete
    2. ArevordiMay 13, 2016 at 7:14 PM

      Now, having said all of the above: In the big picture, and despite all these flaws, we still kicked their ass. Baku's military plans were much more ambitious. They registered only minor gains. Our defensive lines held well. Our 18-20 year olds were able to stopped their best units. Nevertheless, we cannot rest on our laurels and foolishly assume that all's well in our armed forces. We still have a lot of work to do. We have the fighting spirit and the bravery and despite what our Western agents are claiming we already have more than enough Russian made weapons systems with which to effectively defend our lands. What we need is more discipline and proficiency and of course political foresight and awareness. As a nation we need to take military matters and our alliance with the Russian Bear much, much more seriously. In other words, we need to curb our Western agents, engage in less boastful rhetoric and begin doing more introspection. There is a lot of work to do. I'm afraid we are again seeing our more problematic genetic/cultural traits rearing their ugly heads.

      PS: I would also like to hear what Zoravar has to say about this topic.

      Delete
    3. Razmik ArtashesMay 13, 2016 at 8:39 PM

      Not being a military expert, here is my 2 cents:

      1) No matter how little, the azeris gained some positions. That in itself is unacceptable. This was a huge disappointment, and hopefully a wake-up call to our military officials. This is not the Army we were told it was.

      2) In relation to #1 and to what you said Arevordi, the behavior of soldiers worries me. They are acting as if this is a party they're going to crash. Discipline is missing. I believe this is due to mixing nationalistic sentiments in the wrong way during their training. Instead of acting and behaving like "robots", they behave like disorganized, yet very overconfident fedayis. And no, just because they sing «ախպերս ու ես» does not guarantee that they will win. More professional approach should be given into turning these men into fighting machines, and not emotionally driven "heroes". I liked how Arevordi used the term "pragmatic nationalist". Our people are too engulfed in emotions that just because they feel nationalistic does not mean they are right. Basically what I'm trying to say is it's time to get more serious and not limit our nationalism while toasting on the tables. I always call these people fake nationalists.

      3) Also, the presence of volunteers and former freedom-fighters, while they are good to boost the morale of the troops, I highly doubt their combat effectiveness on the front-line, especially due to their old age and Armenian bellies. It's one thing proclaiming their readiness to join the fight, it's another thing to physically and mentally prepare oneself.

      4) As much as I respect military officers and heroes like Komandos Ter-Tadevosyan, he and other militarymen are making illogical and downright dangerous claims. This latest battle proved to non-military experts such as myself that we are not ready to go on the offensive (as it was said to us numerous times). Yet they claim that we can and should go in and capitulate the country in a few short weeks...

      5) I would like to ask a question regarding the possible azeri tank losses (this may sound silly). Supposing they were hit within azeri territory, and azeris covered it up, then it would not be possible for us to have photographs of destroyed tanks. Don't you (Arevordi) find that logical?

      Delete
    4. ZoravarMay 14, 2016 at 11:51 AM

      Arevordi pretty much summed up the military aspects of the 4-day war.
      Basing myself on the videos and photos available, here is what I can add:

      The GOOD:
      1)Our soldiers held their ground as much as possible. They did not run away like some Arab armies. They fought back and were ready for sacrifices.
      2) Our artillery played a major role in disrupting, stopping and in many cases reversing the Azeri advances.
      3) We know now exactly what Azeris can and cannot do. They have revealed all their cards.

      The BAD:
      1) Their assault on our positions was not spearheaded with tanks. It was a special forces/infantry type attack. They kept their tanks in a support role. We used our tanks the wrong way. We should not have lost a single tank in this fight.
      2) Inadequate methods of concealing and camouflaging our fixed (command posts) and mobile (tanks and vehicles) assets. The Azeris had a whole fleet of UAVs, it was not a secret.
      3) Too much reliance on trenches
      4) Inadequate surveillance deeper inside Azeri territory (our Drones are short ranged)
      5) Our high-command's reaction to the Azeri attack came a bit too slow. Our country is small, we don't have room to retreat. Our artillery barrage and counter-attack should have been activated quicker.

      The UGLY:
      1) In military balance terms, our defense ministry was able to maintain an edge over the opponent by introducing major weapon systems during the nineties and first decade of the century: SCUD, TOCHKA, S-300 from Russia and WM-80 MLRS from China for example. Then they took a break. During the last few years, the only major item we received was in the form a KUB (SAM-6) system that was transferred to us from the Russian contingent in Gyumri. At the same time, the Azeris were arming themselves to their teeth thanks to their oil money. By not taking the appropriate measures, our defense ministry is partly to blame for creating the conditions that encouraged Aliev to launch the April four day war.

      Delete
    5. Mardig BidanianMay 15, 2016 at 6:49 PM

      I would also add in the "good" 2 more expensive things.
      1) Despite damage done by UAVs the Azeris were unable to claim complete air superiority as the Armenian forces shot down many UAVs and the Mig-24 on the first day. We need more anti-air weapons to deal with their air power
      2) The Azeris took heavy losses and many of their losses were high ranking officers.

      Delete
    6. ArevordiMay 16, 2016 at 3:18 AM

      Razmik Artashes,

      Your question/suggestion about the tanks comes from not being familiar with the nature of military operations. Moreover, you were exposed to a lot of disinformation in recent weeks and in your heart you really want to believe what our side is saying. All this is making it difficult for you to see the bigger, more accurate picture.

      When tanks get destroyed, their wreckage is difficult to retrieve, especially when they are near the line of contact and therefore within their opponent's line of sight. You would need specialized tanks to tow the wreckage away. It takes a lot of effort and time. Just like they left dozens of their dead soldiers in front of our positions, they would have had no choice but to leave their burning tanks there as well. Notice the tanks that were destroyed on our side were quickly registered by video and photo.

      Here is a link Zoravar provided. It shows confirmed kills (click on the show button to access the page): http://lostarmour.info/karabakh/

      We have seen hundreds of photos and videos taken by our drones, video cameras, photo cameras and cell phone cameras from all along the front lines during the fighting. Remember that any soldier with a smartphone these days (and most of our troops have them) is a combat photojournalist. We have seen the destroyed Azeri attack helicopter over and overt again... we have seen a few dozen dead Azeri soldiers over and over again... And we have also seen the destroyed Azeri bridging tank.

      Thus far, and it's been over a month after the hostilities, none of the available video or photo evidence shows a destroyed Azeri battle tank. NONE. Of the hundreds of photos and videos we have seen there is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that we destroyed any of their battle tanks. Moreover, T-90s, Tos-1, Smerches and Mi-35 have not been see anywhere.

      If we did hit their tanks during the fighting, then they were not destroyed and were able to pull back to their lines.

      It is very troubling for me that we are engaged in wishful thinking and empty bravado. It's as if no one wants to admit the truth. No one wants to shatter the fantasy world they live in. No one want to admit fault... which is why they rather blame Russia for everything. The only ones (other than some of the people here in this blog) that are questioning the official narrative are Armenia's Western agents. Needless to day, they are doing this to attack President Sargsyan and drive a wedge between Yerevan and Moscow.

      We had serious losses in men, material and land. To cover up their corruption and incompetence, Yerevan put out disinformation. Armenian officials blamed recently sold Russian weapons systems for Azerbaijan's blitzkrieg and Armenia's Western agents wasted no time in accusing Russians for starting the war.

      The result: The Armenian sheeple are being mislead once again, and once again it's our fault.

      Armenia is being run by incompetent chobans and Western agents. Armenia today is hanging by a thread called Russia. Had it not been for Russian boots on the ground in Armenia, Armenians would most probably have suffered the 1st genocide of the 21th century.

      The region is preparing for a major war. It's not going to be pretty if we continue like this. I just hope there is a contingency plan in Moscow to occupy Armenia if things get bad in the region. That's the only thing I can hope for at this point. Ultimately, if we are incapable of running a nation in a very tough neighborhood, it's better we hand the house keys to Moscow and live like Chechens, Ossetians and Abkhazians. I rather Armenia live as a Russian province than lose Armenia altogether.

      I realize I'm being a bit dramatic and emotional, but I do stand behind everything I said. I say all this because the Armenian, as he exists today, is proving incapable of meeting Armenia's most fundamental needs and solving Armenia's most pressing problems...

      Delete
    7. PetrilianMay 16, 2016 at 5:19 PM

      The outcome of the 4 day war, was at best an even draw, at worst an Azeri plus on account of their element of surprise and the taking of some territory posts. We still are ignorant about the lost positions, wether it is 100 meters or a thousand meters, a loss is a loss. Reading the Azeri press they sound triumphalist, although their comments are unadulterated propaganda with loads of falsehoods. Their information channels are transmitting and spreading disinformation to a mass audience of mentally disadvantaged citizenry. The tone and tenor of their comments and writings are geared to audiences in the bottom strata of society. If we have our chobans, so do they, the difference lies in the demographics. There is supposed to be a ceasefire, however not a week lapses without learning of tragic deaths of soldiers or wounded army personnel or civilians near the contact line. The war continues, there is not even a lull, the enemy is regrouping. Now there reports of dead soldier on the Nachichevan border. The political game played by our government is falling short of what is in Armenian interests. As for Russia, they need to be careful, a weakening of the Armenian state would place their geopolitical status in the region at risk. Having a strategic alliance and two army bases, makes Armenia a very important component in Russia's geopolitical position and presence in Transcaucasia. A question should also be asked whether the Russians understand this, it is pretty certain they do. Without Russia, there is no Armenia, without Armenia there is no Russia in Transcaucasia.

      Delete
    8. ArevordiMay 16, 2016 at 5:21 PM

      Petrilian,

      Russians understand all this better than you, me and President Sargsyan put together. The real question therefore should be whether we Armenians understand all this...

      Delete
    9. Razmik ArtashesMay 19, 2016 at 5:59 AM

      It is very disappointing reading what you just said about the defense ministry's, statement. On top of that it is being revealed that some parts on the North and Northeast positions are still under the control of the azeris, which seems to amount to around 800 hectares (8 km2). Armenian forces probably did not manage to re-take these positions by the time the new ceasefire was agreed. Yet the defense ministry kept it a secret. Only yesterday did Sargsyan talk about it while labeling these territories as non-strategic. (http://yn.am/?military&p=64857&l=am).

      Something has to change in Armenia's leadership. This can't go on. We're doomed to stagnate at this rate.

      Delete
  39. sonofamalekMay 13, 2016 at 10:15 PM

    Interesting article:

    http://russia-insider.com/en/armenia-ups-stakes-caucasus-prepares-bill-recognize-nagorno-karabakh/ri14321

    ReplyDelete
  40. ZoravarMay 15, 2016 at 11:10 AM

    On Friday, the Kurds have shot down a Turkish Cobra helicopter gunship with a Russian-made IGLA man portable missile.
    The Kurdish insurgency is heating up. The Lost Armor website started a page on the losses. I invite you to watch the photos and videos of the destroyed Turkish armor: http://lostarmour.info/turkey/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiMay 15, 2016 at 7:16 PM

      Finally, Russian MANPADS in Kurdish hands! Wonderful news. This is a development we had been waiting for since late November.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMay 15, 2016 at 8:47 PM

      Supposedly the video of Cobra being shot down:

      Devrimci Operasyon - Çukurca Sınır Hattı - 13 Mayıs 2016
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCM3d4nkUmk

      Delete
    3. Boch@May 16, 2016 at 5:23 PM

      Dear Arevordi

      When the Kurd issue comes we have a lot of debate in Armenian forums. Most say we cant trust we cant make an alliance with those who killed our grandparents etc. I personally think we must work with them because we have a lot of common interests. You have talked about this things but never explaining too much. What do you think we should make with the Kurd issue and the future of Kurdistan? The Iraqi Kurdistan is starting his independence process but at the same time they seem to have a lot of back from US and Israel. You have then the PKK and the YPG in Syria working different. And one last thing how this can be played with the issue of the hidden Armenians in Turkey that some estimate in 5 million persons mostly in Kurdish regions and cities and coincident with the western Armenia region. Thanks!

      Delete
    4. ArevordiMay 16, 2016 at 9:57 PM

      Boch@,

      My thoughts about Kurds reflect yours. Nations that approach politics emotionally are nations that suffer catastrophes. The past can teach one many lessons but politically the past has very little to do with today. Today, I see Kurds as potential allies or rather partners. That said, I also know that Kurds cannot be trusted at all - because of their religion/culture and the simple fact that they are a very disorganized and fragmented people. Unlike Russia, Kurds can never be our natural allies. The same more-or-less applies to Iranians.

      I don't want to get into the Kurdish topic at length at this time. I just want to say that it is fully in our interest to see the formation of a Kurdish state in Iraq and Syria. While the one in Iraq is clearly backed by the CIA and Mossad, its existence has set a good precedent nonetheless. With such autonomous Kurdish regions, especially the Russian backed one in Syria, the situation inside Turkey will grow increasingly worst with time.

      Forget about Armenians impacting the situation. Armenians can barely keep an Armenia. Armenia/Armenians will play no role in this matter. Instead, hope for more Russian involvement in Kurdish territories in Syria.

      When Turks ambushed that Russian warplane over Syria last November many began hoping or predicating that Moscow would begin arming Syrian Kurds. The signs are encouraging. A mini civil war has been raging inside south-eastern Turkey and bombs are being detonated in Turkish cities. Just recently, two Turkish helicopters were shot-down by Kurds using Russian MANPADS for the first time ever. Russians are quietly exacting a heavy toll on Turkey. My hope is to see this renewed Russian-backed Kurdish insurgency gain steam inside Turkey in the coming months and years.

      PS: Islamized Armenians in Turkey may or many not be an asset. Not many people know that Hamshen Armenians for instance have a large percentage of people devoted to Turkish nationalism. The regions where Hamshen Armenians live is an epicenter for Grey Wolves activity.

      Delete
  41. GevMay 15, 2016 at 7:42 PM

    Watch this video..........Unbelievable that everything in this video is playing out now. Listen to the last speaker in the video.....

    Nagorno-Karabakh War Dec of 93 the worst period of the war: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lt1AS1fj6MA

    Pretty much David Vs Goliath....until this day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ArevordiMay 15, 2016 at 7:42 PM

      Gev, thank you for the video link. I had not seen this footage. The interview with Seyran Baghdasaryan during the first ten minutes was amazingly sobering. There are so many parallels. I suggest everyone to listen to this interview and draw conclusions.

      Delete
  42. ArevordiMay 16, 2016 at 5:34 PM

    Ambassador of Azerbaijan in Russia makes Provocative Statements Against Armenia: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/847309/ambassador-of-azerbaijan-in-russia-makes-provocative-statements-against-armenia.html

    In the big picture, the Azeri ambassador to Russia is right. Trying to explain away Yerevan's behavior, Armenpress sounds very disingenuous. As amazing as it may sound, Armenians have figured out a way to make backward idiots in Baku look much smarter than us. This is a result of our idiots thinking that Western powers can be an alternative to Russia.

    Think of it this way: Azerbaijan is awash in petrodollars; Baku has very good relations with Iran; Baku has very good relations with Turkey; Baku has very good relations with Georgia; Baku has very good relations with Kazakhstan; Baku has very good relations with Israel; Baku has very good relations with Europe; Baku has very good relations with the US. Yet, Baku makes sure to maintain very good relations with Russia by engaging in an organized lobbying effort in Moscow - because Baku understands that Russia is the region's main power broker. Armenia is a tiny, impoverished, landlocked, remote and blockaded nation surrounded by Turkic and Islamic enemies. Other than Russia Armenia has no genuine friends in the world. In fact, Armenia lives today as a result of Russian trade, Russian investments and Russian military support. Yet, Armenia places virtually all its diplomatic efforts on flirting with Western powers and the Armenian peasantry only knows how to protest in front of the Russian embassy.

    In my opinion: If Armenia had Azerbaijan's advantages, Armenia would have abandoned its alliance with Russia a very long time ago and the country today would have been a playground for Western, Turkish and Israeli interests. If Armenians did not have problems with Turks and Azeris, Armenia would have entered into an alliance with Turks and Azeris against Russia a very long time ago.

    Instead of engaging in a serious effort to promote Armenian interests inside the Kremlin, Yerevan has nurtured its Western operatives as a hedge against Russia. In an effort to conceal their corruption and incompetence Yerevan is periodically unleashing the country's Western operatives to do their thing. Yerevan has thus created a landscape where Western operatives freely operate. The seeds of Russophobia (the seeds of Armenia's destruction) is being planted throughout Armenian society as a result. Although Russia has been militarily backing Armenia/Artsakh for the past 25 years, I don't ever recall Baku allowing Azeris to protest in front of the Russian embassy. Although Western powers have utterly ruined the region where Armenia is located; although Western powers have blockaded Armenia through their NATO ally Turkey; although Western powers fully back Azeri claims over Artsakh; I don't ever recall Armenians protesting in front of the American embassy.

    Armenians are one of the world's most politically immature and emotionally unstable people. The Armenian remains the single most dangerous enemy Armenia has. President Sargsyan's government has proven to stagnant and his policies are now slowly decaying. His game plan worked well before but it has failed to properly adapt to today's changing times. We are ignoring our only regional ally Russia (as well as Iran) for better relations with Western powers.

    We now need a thorough cleansing. I hope to see a Russian sponsored revolution. I hope to see a repeat of October 27, 1999. But I hope it's on a much wider scale this time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousMay 16, 2016 at 9:08 PM

      "If Armenians did not have problems with Turks and Azeris, Armenia would have entered into an alliance with Turks and Azeris against Russia a very long time ago." Do mean like the Kurds, who even share the same faith? moron!

      Delete
    2. ArevordiMay 16, 2016 at 10:22 PM

      Although I have said I will not post anonymous comments, I will make periodic exceptions simply to showcase how irrational/stupid Armenians can be when discussing politics.

      Dear Anonymous,

      I said, "if Armenians did not have problems with Turks and Azeris". In other words, had there not been any land disputes or massacres of Armenians. Perhaps you have not noticed but Kurds, somewhat similar to us Armenians, have serious problems with Turks. I would add however that most Kurds in Turkey today are Turkified and that the problem Ankara has is only with a certain portion of Kurdish society. In any case, your Kurdish comparison is illogical and it betrays your sub-par intellect. Had you had a normally functioning brain, you would have instead thought about Georgians and Ukrainians. These are two Christian nations who have historically been close to Russia but have now joined Westerners, Jews, Turks and Muslims to fight the Russian "scourge".

      When it comes to politics, we Armenians are not much better than Georgians or Ukrainians. When it comes to folk culture, Armenian are not at all that dissimilar from Turks, Azeri sand Muslims. If you haven't noticed any of this, then you are living in a fantasy world.

      Do you now understand, moron?!

      Delete
    3. LGMay 17, 2016 at 3:22 AM

      It is more than a stretch to claim that baku has good relations with Iran or even the west. Baku has cordial relations with the west and somewhat cool ties with Iran and Russia. Sometimes relations improve and sometimes they sour when it comes to baku's ties with Moscow and Tehran. Other than turkey, baku has no real allies. The west only has energy interests there, and for the most part the same is true for israel as well. Let's not get carried away and blow azerbaijan's foreign relations out of perspective.

      For the most part I agree with your statements regarding Serj and company, however, I don't know if a massacre or revolution, regardless of who sponsors it will solve our issues. Our issues are of a spiritual nature which you have talked about before. Let me leave you with a quote from Julius Evola:

      "Here is a principle that ought to be absolutely clear today more than ever: if a state were to possess a political or social system that, in theory, would count as the most perfect one, but the human substance of which it's comprised were tainted, well then, that state would sooner or later descend to the level of the lowest societies, while people, a race capable of producing real men, men of just feeling and secure instinct, would reach a high level of civilization and would stay on its feet before the most calamitous tests even if its political system were faulty and imperfect.

      Delete
    4. ArevordiMay 17, 2016 at 4:45 PM

      LG,

      I'm very upset and frustrated with the political stagnation I see in Armenia. Yerevan is proving incapable of adapting to the changing times. I am seriously worried about how prepared we will be when the shit hits the fan in the region. I am seeing a lot of things that deeply concern me. I realize I am being a bit extreme when I call for drastic measures - but something's got to give. We need a major readjustment. If we continue on this rudderless path in such a turbulent region we will eventually lose our statehood.

      That said, I'm afraid you are not giving Baku's diplomatic corps the credit they actually deserve.

      Baku's "natural ally" may be Turkey but Baku, unlike Yerevan, has gone out of its way to cement close ties with Russia. Even though they are Turkic/Islamic, even though they see Turkey as their natural allies, even though Westerners and Israel has pumped tens of billions of dollars into Azerbaijan, Baku still recognizes Russia as the region's main power broker and has therefore implemented serious measures to stay actively engaged in Moscow.

      The stupid ones are us. While we are totally dependent on Russia for survival, our diplomatic corps is no where to be seen in Moscow. For some fucking reason we still think Western powers are a real option for us. I have even heard officials saying utterly stupid things like, "we have to make Russians think we have options".

      I know you understand international relations and geopolitics so I don't have to tell you how stupid of us to think that Russians are so naive that we can fool them into thinking a certain way. This type of incompetent political approach/rhetoric is a result of political illiteracy coupled with greed and arrogance. This is also a result of assigning Western trained individuals into positions of power. Consequently, the political system in Armenia is in the hands of chobans in Armani suits and Western agents.

      It is very dangerous at this stage to underestimate Azerbaijan's military and diplomatic corps. Alarmingly, I see virtually everyone in our society doing it. I guess all those stupid "killdim" cartoons and nonsense about "Azerbaboons" have dulled our senses and blinded our judgment. This is a very dangerous thing.

      The reality is this: Compared to Armenia, Baku has better relations with Iran and the West. Needles to say, Baku also has very close relations with Turkey, Georgia and Israel. Baku's relations with Russia not being as good as that of Armenia's relations with Russia has NOTHING to do with Armenian diplomacy and everything to do with Russia's geostrategic calculations. In other words: Russia has better relations with Armenia than with Azerbaijan because Russians want it that way.

      If you don't see this, please look a little harder.

      You have been told Azeris are stupid animals for so long that you are having a hard time admitting to yourself that Baku is playing the game of politics MUCH better than us Armenians.

      Anyone that thinks Baku has not meticulously crafted very close relations with Moscow knows NOTHING about Azerbaijan. Anyone that does not realize that Yerevan is totally missing in action in Moscow knows NOTHING about Armenian politics. While our officials have been busy kissing Western asses - and participation in NATO drills alongside Turkish troops and appointing Fletcher School graduates to positions of power in the country - Azeris have been actively lobbying Russian officials.

      Many Armenians have been warning about this situation for many years. I mention two such names in the body of this blog.

      My point is ultimately this: Had we stopped wasting our time in Western capitols, curbed our Western activists and instead invested our limited resources on deepening our ties with Moscow we would have improved the quality of our alliance with the Russian Bear.

      Delete
    5. AnonymousMay 17, 2016 at 6:45 PM

      Arevordi, despite its flirtations with Turks/Azeris, the demise of Hayastan does not fit into Georgia’s geopolitical calculations. They will never take steps aimed at our statehood, notwithstanding our alliance with the Bear, which they deem as their number 1 threat. Georgians know all too well, and of course from past history, that they would be next on the hit list, no questions about it. In case of Hayastan’s demise, geogia would the first to run toward Russia. The example you brought up of this hypothetical world does not fit within logic. I cant think of any neighbors with whom turks don’t have or haven’t had bad relations with, even the far off Poles, and states that didn’t face existential threats from them. P.S. just because torqs sole aspects of our culture, doesn’t mean they’re “similar” to us.

      Delete
    6. ArevordiMay 17, 2016 at 8:14 PM

      Anonymous,

      Of everything I said you decided to nitpick my comments about Georgia? Anyway, it seems you know very little about Georgians and Georgia. What Tbilisi has been doing goes far beyond merely flirting with Turks and Azeris. Georgians have essentially sold their nation to Turks and Azeris and they have utterly ruined their relations with Russia. Moreover, Georgians have deep rooted hatred towards us Armenians.

      So, their land problems with Russians; their very good relations with Turks and Azeris; and their disdain towards us will inevitably impact their political policies towards Armenia for the foreseeable future.

      We see this in their tight military, economic and political relations with Ankara and Baku. Georgians see Turks and Azeris as their natural allies because they view Russia (and its little partner Armenia) as their main problem. Georgia has not shutdown its border with Armenia or been more aggressive towards Armenians in Javakhq ultimately because of their fear of a Russian-Armenian backlash. Doing so would mean war. They won't go that route. They have therefore done other things to hurt Armenia.

      Also, even if Georgia is forced into Russia's orbit (which I believe will happen) Russian-Georgian relations will be very problematic.

      Armenians and Turks have many similarities in culture, behavior, appearance and mindset. The same applies to Greeks and Turks and Kurds and Turks. This may be an uncomfortable thing to recognize for us but this is reality. It's actually very normal. They are conquerors that have been living in our lands for the past one thousands years as our overlords. Consequently, we have taken on some of the more backward cultural aspects of Turkish/Islamic society and they have taken on some of the more refined cultural aspects of Armenian and Greek society. Also, the genetic makeup of Turks is overwhelmingly "Anatolian".

      Regarding bad relations Turks have with their neighbors: It's not a Turkish phenomenon. Virtually all former and current empires (including American, British, French, German and Russian) have bad relations with neighbors, as well as with nations that are far away.

      Little example: If Mexico is not overtly hostile towards the US today, it's simply because Mexico is a vessel of the Anglo-American-Jewish empire. Imagine relations between Mexico and the US if the US was a weak power. Trust me it wouldn't be pretty.

      Your deep seated hatred of Turks is compromising your rationale and clouding your view. Seeing Turks as your enemy/opponent is a healthy thing, allowing your hatred of them to blind you to the world you live in is a sickness that can only harm you.

      PS: Please identify yourself or stop posting comments here.

      Delete
    7. Razmik ArtashesMay 17, 2016 at 8:16 PM

      «Հայ ժողովրդի ողբերգությունը նրանում է, որ արև է երգում («Արեգակն արդար»), բայց քնամոլ է («Ի ննջմանէ ծանրության»), իդեալիստ է, բայց դրամատենչ, հայրենասեր է, բայց անձնապաշտ, իմացական է, բայց ոչ կռահող, խելք ունի, բայց ո՛չ երևակայություն, սիրում է գիտությունը, բայց ծուլանում է նրանից օգտվել, գոռոզ է, բայց հարմարվում է նվաստությանը, քաջ է, բայց խորտակումի զգացում չունի, խիստ է, բայց անկարգապահ, երազատես է, բայց ներկային գերի, ուժի պաշտամունք ունի, բայց ոչ հզորության կամք, կենսաբանական զորութենականություն ունի, բայց ոչ կազմակերպական հակում, մշակութային տենչ ունի, բայց ոչ քաղաքական կորով, արդարամիտ է, բայց ոչ ճշմարտասեր, ցեղ է, բայց գերադասում է ժողովրդի բարոյականը: Զգացումների շփոթ է հայ ժողովուրդը, շուռ եկած էություն:

      Իսկ թու՞րքը – դա հայ ժողովուրդի հակապատկերն է` կենսաբանական տկարություն և ուժի ծարավ, անհանճար ոգի և քաղաքական կամք, անմաքուր սիրտ և գրավիչ լեզու, բութ միտք և կարգապահական հակում, վախի զգացում և խորտակումի մոլուցք:
      Հայը խորքով է արժեքավոր, թուրքը` մակերեսով, նա էությամբ է բարձր, սա` արտահայտության ձևով: Հայը հոյակապ ցեղ է և անպիտան ժողովուրդ, թուրքը ստորին ցեղ է և սքանչելի ժողովուրդ:»

      Հայկ Ասատրյան

      https://vruyrartsruni.wordpress.com/2016/01/12/%D5%B0%D5%A1%D5%B5%D5%AF%D5%A1%D5%AF%D5%A1%D5%B6-%D5%A2%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%B1%D6%80%D5%A1%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D5%AF%D5%AB-%D5%BA%D5%A1%D5%B5%D6%84%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%A8-%D5%B0%D5%A1%D5%B5%D5%AF/

      Delete
    8. Razmik ArtashesMay 17, 2016 at 8:38 PM

      This phrase is from the article I just posted. This should be the motto of every single Armenian:

      «Հաղթում է ո՛չ թե նա, ո՛վ փաստերի և նրանց հետևանքների մասին է մտածում, այլ նա, ո՛վ գործում է և եզրակացությունը թողնում պատմությանը:»

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    9. LGMay 18, 2016 at 5:02 PM

      Arevordi:

      I agree, we need a readjustment on several levels. But as I pointed out in my previous comment, our primary issues are caused by spiritual and moral shortcomings on our part. Until we fix that it won’t matter much. Just consider that today our so called opposition is in no position to take over the reins of power. I don’t just mean because they tend to be propped up by the west, but also because they are just as imbecilic as the current government. A revolution will not solve our problems regardless of where it comes from.

      I don’t underestimate the azerbaijanis nor the turks. We can learn a number of things from turkish diplomacy, perhaps not as much from azerbaijani but still, they are active and have achieved a few victories. I have had encounters with azerbaijani diplomats and witnessed them in action in the US. Nothing impressive. From simple things like their poor English to their lack of debate procedure, and stating their countries positions, one can safely conclude that they are not the true threat. Otar diplomats and members of the think tank community have commented before that baku throws money around and that is how they manage to score many of their diplomatic victories. Now with the money drying up they have to be more resourceful. Whether they will rise up to that challenge and succeed has yet to be seen. What I am saying is this, they are typical post soviet dumbasses’ not too dissimilar from our diplomatic corps, sadly. Ties between Russia and azerbaijan have been maintained due to some in their military hierarchy and because of well to do members of the azerbaijani diaspora in Russia. Now we can argue that they have done a better job than we, but that isn't the same as claiming that their official national security strategy is to remain close to Russia. They realize from whence they get their money (west) and with whom they shouldn't mess with or else (Russia), hence their balancing act. We think we can have it all, hence why we're indecisive, reactive, and risk averse. We can't afford to be any longer.

      Again, I don’t think azerbaijan has better ties with the Iran. It is well known among Persians and the ruling regime in Tehran that baku has irredentist claims. No one has forgotten the fact that azerbaijan agreed to be a launching pad for israeli strikes against Iran. Also, the azerbaijani national security service spends less time looking for Armenian spies and subversive activities than it does in attempting to monitor and even foil the flow of Iranian sponsored imams, religious books, and cash transfers from Iran to ‘Islamic’ organizations.

      I am all for increased Armenian ties with Russia. It must be a pan national effort and requires a whole of government thinking, which is lacking in Armenia in general. This is what happens when a country is run by individuals instead of political philosophies that are the bedrock of the state. What political ideology does official Yerevan emanate.............. NOTHING!

      You and I are on the same page, however, not the same paragraph ;)

      Delete
    10. CalifornianMay 18, 2016 at 6:22 PM

      Arevordi jan,

      This is the kind of thing that can happen in Hayrenik if the Russians don't keep the government chobans on a short leash, as you put it.

      ‘Made in USA’: 3 key signs that point to Washington’s hand in Brazil’s ‘coup’: https://www.rt.com/news/343390-brazil-rousseff-impeachment-us/

      Venezuela Accuses U.S. of Plotting Coup, Declares State of Emergency: http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/venezuela_accuses_us_of_plotting_coup_declares_state_of_emergency_20160515

      Delete
    11. ArevordiMay 18, 2016 at 8:53 PM

      LG,

      Azeris know the Russian political landscape very well, but they are new to the game being played in the US. This accounts for the flaws you have noticed. That said, you are seeing only half the picture. Baku is smart enough to use the services of Turks and Jews in the US to promote their agenda. As a result: Baku has the services of large numbers of influential Americans; US military contractors train Azeri snipers and special forces; Western powers have invested billions of dollars into Baku's energy sector.

      Also, no matter what problems that may or may not exist between them, Azerbaijan's ties to Iran (be it economic, political or cultural) is much closer than ours is. And even here, Baku, unlike Yerevan, is not sparing any effort in lobbying Iranian officials.

      I'm afraid you are not giving them the credit they deserve. The first mistake a fighter makes is to misjudge or underestimate his opponent. We have a long history of making such mistakes. And we have paid immensely as a result.

      Needless to say, I totally agree with your comments about the spiritual/intellectual quality of a people and the necessity of having political philosophy.

      But the picture is bleak. Just because you and I wish for things, it does not mean it will happen. Such things have to naturally/instinctually emanate from the people. The only thing naturally/instinctually emanating from our people is the burning desire to live the good life - where ever it may be!

      This is why I say governments are a reflection of their people. This is why I say the characteristics (good or bad) of a nation are the reflection of the people that live within it. As a result: Germany is the way it is because of Germans; Russia is the way it is because of Russians; Zimbabwe is the way it is because of Zimbabweans; Greece is the way it is because of Greeks; Armenia is the way it is because of Armenians; etc.

      We are a flawed people. Our pride, jealousy, tribalism, materialism, arrogance and self-righteousness is a serious problem. Please don't distract this conversation by bringing up flaws in other peoples to make excuses about our flaws. Let's deal with our problems. Besides, if Armenians had the warrior spirit of Slavs and/or the political foresight of Jews, we would not have been in this situation for the past one thousand years.

      Just look at the ridiculous conversations saturating Armenian society since the April war. All the talk is about Russians backstabbing us. Also, I cringe every time Armenians obsessively lament the death of soldiers and bitch and complain about their conditions. Any nation that panics like we do because 18 year olds are dying in combat is a nation that will NEVER amount to anything. Any nation that obsessively worries about how well their 18 olds are treated/pampered in the military will NEVER amount to anything.

      How well are our boys being clothed? How well are they fed? Are they frightened? Are they cold? Are they bored? Why don't oligarchs send their kids to die?

      It's mind numbing insanity.

      Speaking of political philosophies: Because of our chobans in Armani suites and the low quality of modern Armenian in general, the only philosophy that seems to be gaining traction today is the one that makes Armenians think they have "options'. The prevailing philosophy among most Armenian "think tanks" and "experts" is to encourage Armenians to curb Armenia's ties to Russia and seek closer relations with Western powers.

      I'm seeing a lot of things that deeply concern me. When I say we are not ready for statehood in a very dangerous environment like the south Caucasus, I'm not saying so merely out of anger and frustration. The deep rooted flaws of our people and the immense difficulties of the geopolitical situation in the region is the reason why when it comes to Armenia's security I place hope on the Bear and no one else.

      PS: You and I have always been on the same page and often on the same paragraph. Sometimes however your Armenian ego has gotten in the way ;)

      Delete
    12. AnonymousMay 18, 2016 at 11:39 PM

      I've read some amateur and some downright autistic analysis on this blog, but this Georgia-apologist deserves some recognition. Georgians are nothing more than semi-Christian Chechens. They are a nation of bandits. Whereas the Turk destroys all tangible aspects of Armenian culture that falls into his hands, the Georgian steals whatever he can and tries to appropriate it, by doing things like overwriting the Armenian writings with Georgian letters. Georgians are absolute scum who only a decade ago literally built their new governmental buildings and church headquarters over the graves of Armenians. If Georgia today refrains from attacking Armenia or exerting too much pressure on the Armenians of Javakhk, it is because they fear Armenia and they fear Russia to a greater extent.

      I know it is common practice for people to give political analysis on matters they don't understand, but anyone who spends half an hour researching on the Internet would recognize that Georgia has adopted a policy of full Turkification since 1991. Turks own and operate a lot of Georgia's critical infrastructure, such as airports. Turks and Azeris are major players in Georgian energy. Turkification is Georgia's great "alternative" to developing relations with Russia. And, with strong western backing, Georgia was even ready to import millions of "Meshketian Turks," aka the Tatars that Stalin deported to Central Asia in the 1940s. Georgia fully intended to settle those imported Turks in Armenian Javakhk, but failed to do so, again largely due to Russia.

      The only Armenians who have positive opinions are half-breeds or race-mixers like Paruyr Hayrikyan, and also the naive and brainwashed youth who fall for the endless praise of Saakashcvilli that the western propaganda outlets keep pumping out ("he ended police corruption, don't you know"). Most Armenians will tell you Georgians are as bad as Turks.

      I've give Georgia credit in one area: they decided as a nation that they would become European, and they are becoming European. Of course, by "becoming European" I mean both Georgia and the EU nations are rushing headfirst into a Muslim-majority era as they give away their countries to Turks.

      Delete
    13. Razmik ArtashesMay 19, 2016 at 5:48 AM

      Could you please elaborate on the point of Armenians lamenting the losses of 18-20 years-olds? It's not possible not to lament when men are dying on the front. They are sons, fathers, husbands, fiances after all.

      I believe what you are trying to say is people should not lose themselves every time a soldier dies due to these ceasefire violations, that they should act more 'stoic'. I don't want to challenge anyone's feelings, but wouldn't you lament if God forbid it was your son who lost his life?

      On the whole I understand your approach though. Armenians are being too emotional, too self-centered, too careless about the country upon hearing tragic news from the front. Once again, it all boils down to the change of collective thinking among Armenians, and so far there is no Armenian organization, in or outside the homeland, that is preoccupied with this problem.

      Delete
    14. LGMay 19, 2016 at 5:26 PM

      "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

      Henry John Temple Palmerston, Remarks in the House of Commons, March 1, 1848

      Armenians need to learn this maxim by heart, and to live by it.

      Delete
    15. ArevordiMay 19, 2016 at 6:02 PM

      LG,

      The English are a northern European and a Germanic people. Historically, northern Europeans and Germanic peoples have been disciplined, orderly, law abiding, hard working, resourceful, cold, calculating, arrogant, cruel and warlike. It was therefore inevitable that peoples from that region of the world (Germans, northern Italians, Austrians, Swiss, French, English, Norwegians, Russians, Swedes) would reach great heights.

      We Armenians are the by-product of the Armenian Highlands. We have "Anatolian" characteristics. We Armenians are too emotional, too self-righteous, too stubborn, too proud, too arrogant, too individualistic, too shortsighted and too rigid/conservative to properly adopt this concept. Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, after one thousand years of statelessness, we Armenians are still politically immature and unprepared.

      Armenians today will therefore get hopelessly stuck on the first portion of the maxim you referred to because it conveniently feeds into their Russophobic tendencies.

      For the foreseeable future, our "eternal and perpetual" interests should be compelling us to seek deeper and closer relations with Russia. Our "eternal and perpetual" interests compels me to look at Turks as competitors, opponents and enemies. But I never do so through hate. I once suggested that Turks may one day become our allies... I was basically treated as an idiot and/or a filthy traitor deserving of death.

      My point is this: We Armenians are the way we are because of genetics (breeding) and up-bringing (folk culture). Changing the Armenian mindset will therefore be a long and arduous task. In fact, it would be a gargantuan task. And it's a task that no one is even talking about starting. So, instead of recognizing our flaws and trying to fix them, we are constantly patting ourselves on the back and telling ourselves how wonderful we are...

      Delete
    16. ArevordiMay 20, 2016 at 7:11 AM

      Razmik Artashes,

      On a personal level, any death (let alone that of a family member) is a great tragedy. But we are not (or rather we should not be) talking about this topic from the personal level.

      I think you already know what I mean. You yourself can therefore elaborate if you simply put aside your emotions/feelings when thinking about this topic. Also, to help you, I would suggest you look at how other nations approach this matter.

      Do you see other nations, small or large, obsessing about their military losses in the way we do? Do you see other nations protesting the way their sons are being treated in the military as much as we do? Do you see Turks or Azeris doing it? Turkish soldiers are among the world's most ill treated, yet you will not see Turks protesting their military. This is because Turks (unlike Armenians and Greek for example) instictually understand that their military is sacred and that young men are born to be cannon fodder for their nation.

      Historically, throughout the world, tens of millions of young men have been exploited for wars that were political in nature. What makes our young men so special that we have to pamper them and constantly worry about how they are treated in the military?

      In other countries 18 year olds go to the military and their families stay quiet.

      Have you seen that "scandalous" video circulating lately about some war veteran complaining that "General Manvel" "cursed" and "yelled" at young soldiers in Artsakh?

      I don't give two shits about Manvel but this kind of complaining and infighting is ridiculous. Other nations would laugh at us about this kind of nonsense. Stuff like this actually reminds me that we Armenians are more like an "ethnic" group than an actual nation. This is what suffering one thousand years of occupation and statelessness does to a people. We need at least a few generations - and some wars - to graduate into nationhood again.

      We obsess over our dead, we severely lament our losses and we always aggressively question the reasons why our young men had to die.

      Ask yourself: How do you think the greatest empires of the world - Roman, Persian, Mongolian, Ottoman, Russian, German, French, British, American - were built? By lamenting their dead or by honoring their dead? Remember that every single empire I mentioned was an obscure little tribe before they burst into history books.

      At a fundamental level, this all has to do with parenting. Armenian parents, mothers in particular, are too protective of their children. I don't want to get into reasons why this is. Let's just deal with how it is.

      Armenian men in particular are too damn pampered. I would say a significant number of Armenian men today are "mama's boys". Mama's boys don't make good soldiers. Mama's boys don't make good husbands and fathers. Mama's boys don't make good alpha males. It's actually disgusting for me to see how much emphasis we put on our "տղերք". There is a horrible - I would even say satanic - genocide of female fetuses going on in our backward nation because disgusting newlyweds want "sons". Are you even aware of that?!

      There are truly sickening aspects of Armenian folk culture, stuff I want NOTHING to do with. I am embarrassed of my people.

      From what I have observed: The following is more-or-less the life goal of the common Armenian male today: Do "biznis"; get addicted to smoking cigarettes; eat meat; marry a docile virgin; chase whores; drive a BMW; grow a belly.

      In the big picture, this unhealthy obsessions with our "տղերք" is the reason why Armenia has a surplus of utterly irresponsible and worthless men, and the elemental reason why Armenia will never become a serious nation-state.

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    17. JerrikoMay 21, 2016 at 10:37 AM

      @Sarkis:

      Given the fact that Georgia had split into several mini-Sakartvelian statelets before the Safavids made their appearanace, they were practically at the mercy of both Ottomans and Timurids. The only saving grace was that the Kingdom of Kakheti attempted to form an alliance with Russia but the alliance never came into being. In addition, Georgian lands were also occupied by the Khazar empire during medieval times, to I'm suspecting that Khazar traits may have somehow entered into the Georgian cultural stream (and Armenia itself was contested between Khazars and Arabs).

      Delete
  43. AnonymousMay 16, 2016 at 7:30 PM

    Oy vey, hetq.am strikes again! I didn't bother reading this crap past the headline.

    Artsakh: A Target for Russian Military Blackmail
    http://hetq.am/eng/news/67910/artsakh-a-target-for-russian-military-blackmail.html#.VzSQLIeq52A.twitter

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    1. ArevordiMay 17, 2016 at 5:22 PM

      While somewhat more reputable than other news organizations, Hetq is still a Western funded operation. Accordingly, Hetq still has an anti-Russian agenda to spread. As a result, Russophobia has been a common theme in their recent articles. Ultimately, this is all our fault because our officials and our sheeple are the ones that give these operations their legitimacy.

      Delete
    2. LGMay 19, 2016 at 5:27 PM

      Another traitor; Armen gevorgyan.

      After April Violence in Karabakh, Armenia’s Distrust in Russia Keeps Growing: http://www.jamestown.org/regions/thecaucasus/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45446&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=54&cHash=a6fc4091b850943b90f5aa5d474a324b#.VzzklZErLIU

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    3. ArevordiMay 20, 2016 at 6:58 AM

      As I have been saying, the ENTIRE political narrative has been hijacked by Western agents and their brain-dead followers. Virtually all of Armenia's news press (including ones aligned with the government) and Armenian cyberspace (where Western agents ran wild) is utterly saturated by anti-Russian rhetoric. There are only a handful of sane voices in the entire stinking cesspool known as Armenian politics.

      This situation is creating a political mindset/culture in the country that does not allow the pursuit or development of deeper, more effective relations with Russia. This situation instead creates a political mindset/culture that allows Western agents to even more freely operate throughout Armenian society. Consequently, the seeds of Russophobia (seeds of Armenia's destruction) is being abundantly sown in Armenia.

      These seeds will eventually bare their bad fruit. Moreover, let's recognize that humanity is heading towards a world war. At the very least, the south Caucasus region is heading towards a major war. Anyone that knows anything about military matters and geopolitics knows that Armenia will not survive such a war without Russia by its side. Yet, all the talk I hear is about "Russian backstabbers", the need to curb our relationship with Russia and the geostrategically dangerous notion that Armenians can go it alone.

      As in the past, and as I have predicted, our so-called "nationalists" are at the forefront of this assault on Armenia's ties with Russia. The "nationalists" are saying, we don't want an alliance with Russia or the West. They are saying, we want independence from Russia and we are not seeking dependence on the West.

      These are false and misleading notions. Anyone with a normally functioning brain understands that Armenia's independence from Russia will automatically result in Armenia's dependence on Western powers and Turkey.

      This situation is the by-product of our incompetent and corrupt leadership.

      Delete
  44. LGMay 17, 2016 at 4:50 PM

    Russia is pinning its Eurovision hopes on a gay-friendly singer who spurns its Crimean policy: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/05/13/russia-is-pinning-its-eurovision-hopes-on-a-gay-friendly-singer-who-spurns-its-crimean-policy/?mc_cid=0fef71af63&mc_eid=29dab07fb9

    Rather pathetic on the part of Russia. Why does Russia take part in this contest which reinforces the worst of what the so called west has become? I would like to see Armenia not take part in eurovision either. Putin may be the best statesmen in the world currently, but he certainly has his shortcomings as well. This is one example.

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    1. ArevordiMay 17, 2016 at 5:23 PM

      You are being mislead by spin/terminology used by the Western press. The singer in question is not seen as "gay-friendly" by Russians. He is supposed to be a "teen idol". Also, Russia is not the tightly controlled society Western powers want you to believe. President Putin is not a war god, he is therefore not micromanaging all aspect of Russian life. Also, it would have been worst if he meddled into this matter. Ultimately, the Russian singer served the purpose of showing the world that not all Russian men wear combat fatigues. That said, I never understood why/how can so many people enjoy this kind of mindless, tasteless crap. I am shocked at how obsessed Armenians in particular are about this contest. At the end of the day, this contest is part of the Western world's psy-ops, where they have everyone acting American and singing in English. Needless to day, the whole thing is also by its nature very political -

      Ukraine’s Eurovision Win Rouses a Chorus of Anger and Suspicion in Russia: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/17/world/europe/ukraines-eurovision-win-rouses-a-chorus-of-anger-and-suspicion-in-russia.html?ref=world&_r=0

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    2. skharaMay 20, 2016 at 2:05 AM

      Ha ha, Pyakin's interview had a clip on "politics" of Eurovision where he made the comment that this contest cannot possibly be apolitical because of the simple fact that everyone sings in English.

      I also listened to the "winner" this Tatar Ukrainian woman, whose mother is ethnic Armenian - she was atrocious - the song is absolutely horrible and actually should cause a negative reaction.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousMay 20, 2016 at 11:16 PM

      Skhara, the bitch is basically the product of a $2 Armenian whore mudshark and a Tatar (aka Azeri, Turk) from Crimea. Crimean Tatars, Caucasian Tatars, same shit.

      She only won because the voting system was changed from counting people's votes, to giving more weight to a panel of "music industry experts" with an anti-Russian agenda. Of course I don't waste my time with Eurovision, but politics is supposed to be banned, except when it serves an anti-Russian agenda.

      By the way 2014's winner was a perfect embodiment of the new European:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conchita_Wurst

      Delete
    4. JerrikoMay 21, 2016 at 10:29 AM

      Eurovision is a joke even before Conchita entered the stage. If anything, Russia definitely needs to organize its own version of Eurovision, only Asian and ex-Soviet Republic nations are invited. The irony of Jamala is that her own parents are benefiting from the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. It's sad to see their own daughter shit on the benefits her own parents are experiencing. It's also shocking that Australia and Israel are also taking part, despite those nations NOT being a part of Europe.

      Delete
  45. Mardig BidanianMay 17, 2016 at 9:31 PM

    Thoughts on yesterdays talks in Vienna between Aliyev and Sargasyan.
    1) No side wants a full on war , Azerbaijan strategy is to have limited operations along the front line in order to capture territory and inflict casualities on the Armenians. However this strategy is dangerous and can escalate into a full scale war. A full scale war would become a proxy war between Russia and Turkey
    2) Any ceasefire would be shaky at best and escalate to war in the worst case that is because the border is heavily militarized. If there is to be peace there needs to be demilitarization however that is unlikely to happen.
    3) Russia is doing all it can to avoid a war . Russia is using whatever control it has in this conflict to bring the sides to the negotiating table. Russia cannot afford the South Caucasus to be destabilized.
    4) In order for there to be peace both Armenians and Azeris need to compromise the Azeris need to concede politically giving the Nagarno-Karabakh enclave at least , the very least autonomy just like the NKAO back in the USSR days and Armenia knows that recognizing the independence of NK might give Azerbaijan casus-belli to start a war.
    5) What makes Azerbaijan dangerous is their unpredictable behaviour. They say they want peace but their plans are to use military action to force concessions from Armenia. Like Robert Greene strategy in 33 strategies of war , negotiate while attacking. That is why we need to always be alert. Their actions don't follow military logic , they are after political ends.
    6) I think there would be an internationalization of peacekeeping efforts. I speculate there would be more OSCE observers on the front line in Karabakh . Down the line I think Russian peacekeepers would join to secure the region.
    More thoughts to follow .

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    1. KerekesMay 19, 2016 at 6:24 PM

      The talks in Vienna are one more round in the endless charade of ever lasting talks. The diplomats have to be kept busy at their jobs, spinning the yard , traveling to and fro. We had Madrid principles, Kazan chatter chats, now it is Vienna, in 5 years we might have Vienna 2, or 3 or 4. The NkR needs to be recognized, recognition is not a trigger for casus-belli, since there is a de facto violation of the ceasefire on a daily basis, and a steady stream of dead or wounded soldiers in the contact line. This conflict can only be settled militarily. There are no compromising principles that can play a constructive role. The Turks will not acquiesced , de nurse,to relinquishing NKR, or any other piece of land to Armenia. In turn ,Armenia cannot yield a single inch of territory. Turkey has nothing to gain from a peace agreement. There is going to be another flare up, when the Azerie regain their confidence. But for appearances sake ,in pursuit of an unreachable illusory peace, there must be a parallel "peace war" conducted by the diplomatic corps. The recognition of Nkr can not come any sooner.

      Delete
  46. Arto2May 19, 2016 at 6:45 PM

    Absolutely nothing has changed in 100 years.

    Russian troops massacre by Caucasian Tatars: http://panarmenian.net/m/eng/details/204280

    The Azeris, Georgians, Turks, Russians and Armenians are playing a re-run of an old bad episode. I think it's fair to say that nothing will change. We may not have a govt with clear political philosophy but our neighbors clearly do and won't stop for another 100 years until either of 2 things happen:

    1. The Armenian nation is eliminated once and for all, or
    2. They are destroyed once and for all.

    All talk about cease fire, compramise, bringing them into Russian orbit..etc is just us fooling ourselves. As soon as Russia shows a little crack in its armour we are in trouble. We know it, the enemy is waiting for it and it is a real possibility. I fully agree with the strengthening of Armenian-Russian ties, for more reasons than one, but I would think this wouldn't be the ultimate goal. The eventual destruction of our enemies should be the ultimate goal. If our political leadership don't embrace this our grandchildren will be like the Assyrians. I don't see any other options.

    Arto2

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    1. ArevordiMay 19, 2016 at 11:12 PM

      And just like how it was one hundred years ago, our idiots are once gain neglecting their neighborhood (i.e. Russia and Iran) and looking Westward for salvation. Anyway, I hope you are not developing the illusions of grandeur that many Armenians suffer from. Before you think about the "destruction of our enemies" please do a honest assessment of our capabilities as a people vs. theirs. Let me remind you that our Diaspora is utterly worthless (especially in times of war) and that our nation is tiny, impoverished, landlocked, blockaded and surrounded by tens of millions of Turkic peoples and Muslims.

      Instead, ask yourself this question: If you were a betting man who would you place your bet on, Armenians or Turks/Muslims?

      You are calling for Armenians to unite and destroy Turks. The Armenian atmosphere these days is saturated by anti-Russian rhetoric and calls that Armenia needs closer relations with the West. A couple of week sago an individual commenting under the handle "Armenian Convert" also suggested that we convert to Islam to save ourselves. We are therefore ultimately presented with four options:

      1) Armenians uniting to plot the destruction of Turks/Azeris
      2) Armenians converting to Islam to save themselves
      3) Armenians looking Westward for salvation
      4) Armenians working to strengthen their ties with Russia

      Please take no offense but number 1 (like number 2 and 3) is a silly fantasy. You may not like it but the only real option we have is number 4. Just like how Jews have embraced American society and used it for their advantage, what we and our grandchildren need to embrace is Russian society and use it to Armenia's advantage. So, please wake up from the silly dream about Armenians destroying Turks and realize that our people's ultimate geopolitical goal HAS TO BE to strengthen our relationship with the ONLY power in the region that can actually prevent Armenia from disappearing.

      Not only is Russia the ONLY power than can actually save Armenia in times of war, Russia is also the ONLY power that actually needs Armenia's existence in the region.

      We have a close alliance with a superpower that is practically our neighbor. We have a close alliance with a superpower that is actually interested in our existence. Instead of placing all our effort/emphasis on exploiting our relationship with this superpower - to make Armenia militarily secure so that we can properly defend ourselves if Russians suffer a setback - we are instead entertaining silly and self-destructive notions.

      Alarmingly, the political narrative/rhetoric we are all constantly and relentlessly being exposed to is so overwhelming and so misleading that it even has intelligent Armenians like yourself misreading what's going and failing to prioritize what we need to do as a nation. As I have been saying, this is all the by-product of the power of Western propaganda and the depth of political illiteracy many Armenians suffer from.

      Delete
    2. Arto2May 21, 2016 at 6:28 AM

      Arevordi,

      It is not a matter of developing illusions of grandeur, it is about having a political goal as a nation which coordinates all physical, spiritual, intellectual and political forces in one direction. The attachment to Russia should not be an end result, it should be a step in the process to reach an end result. Let it take 150 years, and if focused in 1 direction for 5 generations i believe it will succeed. At the very least it will develop a powerful nation. And by destruction of enemy I mean the destruction of the existing pan Turkish anti Armenian political entities. Don't understand me wrong you are absolutely correct in your assessment, I am only talking about the missing rudder. On a side note, i just want to give a shout out to our wonderful Jewish brothers in suffering

      Azerbaijan under siege: A friend of Israel in need of our support: http://m.jpost.com/Opinion/Azerbaijan-under-siege-A-friend-of-Israel-in-need-of-our-support-450494#article=6022Q0IyRUE1NDkxODcyQjhGRTc5NzE4MkFFQzIyMEUxMkY=

      Delete
    3. Arto2May 21, 2016 at 6:40 AM

      The Azeris were invited to the British queen's 90th birthday celebrations. Usually the commonweath countries are invited to bring their horse shows and cavalries but for some reason the brits keep giving the Azeris an international stage to show off their stolen culture. Their show came complete with a full dohol, zurna show and a berd dance and the hightlight of the show was the magnificent "national horse" of Azerbaijan, the Karabagh horses. I swear if they weren't waiving their flag I would think the entire performance was Armenian, except for the part when they were making sounds with their voice. The British love affair with the Turk only highlights how the self-inflicted destruction of the western world can't come soon enough. I can't find a complete performance on youtube yet but I'm sure it will come soon. Here's the lead-up to the show:

      Azerbaijani preparations for The Queen's 90th Birthday Celebrations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdldMAXbLWE

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    4. ArevordiMay 21, 2016 at 7:02 AM

      Arto,

      The political vision/goal which coordinates our limited physical, spiritual, intellectual and political assets in a certain, strategic direction is basically what I am saying when I say, begin a pan-national campaign to extract the maximum benefit Russia's alliance presents us. We are simply incapable of going it alone in the south Caucasus. There are too many voices in our society today that thinks "unity" and "independence from Russia" will solve all of Armenia's problems. In this day in age, anyone that thinks along this line is insane. This kind of "nationalism" will only manage to destroy Armenia. It's that cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion syndrome. Ultimately, we will only manage to destroy the anti-Armenian policies of Turks/Azeris only through a closer, efficient alliance with Russia (and Iran). All other ideas are silly dreams and a waste of time.

      The British don't have a love affairs with Turks. The British only have a love affair with themselves. In the body of the current commentary I mentioned a British journalist during World War One. Please read that section if you haven't. The British look at the region and they see barely two million disgruntled/problematic Armenians and tens-of-millions of aggressive Turks/Azeris who control energy reserves and strategic transportation routes. They also see Turks/Azeris being buffers against Russians. Now, if you were British, which side would you pick, Turks/Azeris or Armenians? If I was British I wouldn't think twice about picking Turks/Azeris.

      Delete
  47. AnonymousMay 20, 2016 at 10:23 PM

    I share Arevordi's opinion. Until the recent war, I harbored a faint, cautious hope that Armenia - despite all of its problems - was on an upward path and would one day be in a position to press its rights not just against Azerbaijan, but against Turkey. I placed this hope on at least the higher level Armenian officials having some initiative. Turkey is a ticking time bomb with the Kurds, Islamists, and impending collapse of its western patrons. Azerbaijan is a mess socially, economically, and politically. But sadly, Yerevan is as stagnant and aimless as ever, and Armenian society is as undisciplined as ever. No need to mention the diaspora, we've always known that they have been utterly worthless - did anyone have any great expectations from the descendants of the cowardly, demasculinized, non-combative, submissive, sheepish Ottoman Armenians who were marched like lambs to slaughter? But even though Yerevan has a historic opportunity to exploit its overlapping national interests with Russia, we see a real lack of initiative on national issues by Armenian officials and Armenian society. So Armenia will remain as it is: pointless. Some nations arise from long occupations, lift their heads, and get to work on self-improvement. Germany and Japan arose from the ashes. Russia arose from Mongol occupation to become a world power. Spain arose from Moorish occupation to conquer entire continents... Armenians on the other hand are a former shadow of their ancient glory, and largely incapable of nation-building and independent statehood.

    The war brought about some interesting observations about what kind of make-believe world most Armenians think they live in. I've never heard so many overpampered, materialistic, image-driven, out-of shape beta males state "bro, if war starts in Armenia, my ass is going there on the first plane, straight to the front lines." Seriously, I've heard this a few times, always from people that I can almost guarantee have never engaged in, let alone won, a fist-fight, and whose martial training is limited to high school gym class + countless hours of Xbox. Apparently some Armenians view their lives in terms of a Karnig Sarkisian fedayi song, where a state in 2016 relies on various guerilla fighters. And needless to say, the dashnak media comments sections, the Armenian forums, the cesspit social media networks, the Reddit Armenia page (a fucking goldmine of Armenian autism), YouTube video comments, and other areas of discourse are overwhelmingly filled with primitive bravado and #BlameRussia. At least that's the case in the English language Internet, but I am 100% sure that the Armenian language discussions are just as thoroughly infected by western agents - I am almost ready to support a program to force the Russian language on Armenians just so they can be exposed to some sanity from Tass and Sputnik.

    All that being said, I am glad the war happened. It was a wakeup call for Armenians. Oddly enough, protests in 2008 and 2012 were calling for Sargsyan to be removed. Protestors in 2016 are calling for "Russia Rous!" So either the puppetmasters in Washington gave up on the idea of ousting Sargsyan because he is too well-entrenched, or because he is pliable enough that they calculate that he can be pressured / bribed to go along with their agenda.

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    1. JerrikoMay 21, 2016 at 10:26 AM

      How effective is the entire police force of the entire Armenian state? Given the fact that the common problem with the various police forces of most ex-Soviet republics, I'm sure there could be a problem of corruption and bribery.

      Speaking of which, in the Philippines we seemed to have done the impossible: elect a left-leaning president whose stance on crime makes the Azeris and Turks blush in comparison. A former mayor of Davao City has been elected as the new president, and he has an impeccable record on fighting crime....with his own death squads. His name is Rodrigo Duterte, and some people even called him the "Filipino Putin". Sorry for going off track, but I thought I might want to share my opinions on this kind of thing.

      It's not that Armenian society needs a major shakeup: I'm betting my gut that Armenian society is also awash with SJW activists who are educated in Western universities (Social Justice courses are rife in most Western universities these days where they teach people how to be an 'ally' to transgendered peoples and that there is no such thing as 'cisphobia'. I'm not making this up)

      And I'd also prefer to see the Chinese language shoved down on Armenians so they could easily deal with Chinese businessmen seeking to invest their money in Armenia. Chinese economic investment is something that Armenia needs to offset any Western economic investment.

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    2. AnonymousMay 23, 2016 at 8:22 PM

      Jerricko, Armenians are a degenerate people who look at westerners as Gods and western culture as divine. Nevermind the Islamification, Turkophilia, pedophilia, guys cutting off their own dicks and wearing makeup and high heels; Armenians are ready to get on their knees for anything western. So if Russia held its own eurovision and it focused on only former Soviet countries, Armenians would scoff at it - even though Armenians have more in common with the "stan" countries (Armenians do call themselves "Hay" and call Armenia "Hayastan") than they will ever have with French, English, Scandinavians, or Germans. Of course a Russian eurovision would be superior in every way, but that would be lost on Armenians. I've even seen one or two commercial or music videos for Armenian pop star whores, where the backup dancers looked like hispanics and blacks doing those idiotic coordinated dances that you'd see in a Beyonce music video.

      Ps I'd like Armenians to learn Chinese as well, it would be great for business. Armenians and Chinese have been trading profitably for centuries. Russian, however, is of extreme social and political importance. English and German are useful for understanding gay and interracial porn, I guess.

      BTW I read about your President, is he as good as he sounds? Daily Stormer had an article about him:

      http://www.dailystormer.com/philippines-anti-american-authoritarian-populist-duterte-set-to-win-presidency/

      Ignore the comments section filled with virgin trailer trash rednecks if you read the article. I'm glad to hear Duterte joke about the rape/death of that Australian nun whore who was no doubt working for Austro-American intelligence and trying to recruit agents for the western agenda among the prison population - the bitch should have stayed in Australia where there is no shortage of prisoners who need a nun. Also the motorcycle death squads murdering drug dealers and violent criminals is beautiful. In the west, our gang-members have the wonderful ACLU to make sure the officers don't say mean things about them. Some of Duterte's best quotes:

      -Trash-talking Philippine presidential favorite Rodrigo Duterte has warned he is prepared to cut diplomatic ties with the United States and Australia after their ambassadors criticized his joke about the jailhouse rape of a missionary.
      Duterte also told the ambassadors to “shut their mouths,”

      -Duterte, who while campaigning has called Pope Francis a “son of a bitch” for causing traffic jams in Manila when he visited in January 2015, and promised to kill thousands of criminals,

      -The poll front-runner has at times on the campaign boasted about running the death squads, claiming they killed 1,700 people, but also denied any links to them.

      -US ambassador ( ( ( Philip Goldberg ) ) ) later agreed with her, saying in a television interview that “statements by anyone, anywhere that either degrade women or trivialise issues so serious as rape or murder are not ones that we condone.”
      In reaction, Duterte said, “It would do well with the American ambassador and the Australian ambassador to shut their mouths.”

      -Duterte’s camp signaled it was prepared to start direct talks with China over a long-running territorial dispute.

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  48. AnonymousMay 20, 2016 at 10:47 PM

    Ultimately our world as it exists today polluted, and evil and corruption reigns supreme. If you try to talk to most Armenians about traditional values and morality (like having families, not worshipping money and material goods, discipline, appreciation of high culture and elimination of Muslim/gypsy influences in Armenian culture, pragmatic true nationalism instead of "#ArmenianPower #Remember1915") most Armenians will tell you to go fuck yourself, or look at you with disgust and disdain, the way we would like down on an interracial Armenian-Turk pedophile couple. Now, we can blame the west and the kikes - both richly deserve it - but ultimately we deserve the lion's share of the blame ourselves. Regarding abortion, if Wikipedia is accurate then Artsakh has the highest rate of abortion in Europe, on par with Romania, Ukraine, and Russia. Even higher than Armenia. Turks and Azeris (like most Muslims, and also Poles, Austrians, and Irish) have enough self-respect to have the lowest abortion rates in Europe. If I was a Turk, I'd be laughing at the Armenians, and I'd be quite confident that sooner or later, Artsakh and Armenia would be depopulated to the point that resistance to Turkish domination would be impossible. Demographics is destiny; Armenia will learn this, Israel will learn this, Georgia will learn this.

    And of course, when you give a race as primitive as Armenians something like abortion, then yes female fetuses are targeted for destruction. The sexual imbalance in Armenia's population is one of the worst in the world. This lack of foresight is frankly remarkable for a race that isn't totally brown or black. Armenian mothers are to be blamed, but the most deserving of blame are Armenian men, who are as irresponsible as it gets. Armenian males are the best in the world at blaming everyone (Russians, Turks, the west) but themselves for their many shortcomings. The Armenian fathers fail to bring their daughters up properly (too busy focusing on them German luxury cars, aper) and Armenian spouses fail to lead their women to family-rearing. Abortions would be under control if men were men.

    It's not just Armenia though, the west (especially Europe) is thoroughly degraded and unsalvageable. I've said this before, and I'm not the least bit religious, but I think the Kali Yuga concept is a good general definition for the modern era:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kali_Yuga#Attributes_of_Kali_Yuga

    And speaking of religion, the Armenian Church has completely failed to wage a campaign to win over its adherents and teach them that abortion is a national sin because it dooms us demographically to the Turks.

    As Arevordi has said, and as dozens of other sources are now saying: Russia remains the last hope.

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    1. ԴրօMay 23, 2016 at 1:09 AM

      You're giving the Turks too much credit. They too have a demographic crisis and it's worse than Armenia's. The Turks are going to become a minority in their own country and the Kurds will become the majority in the not-too-distant future.

      Erdogan tried to crack down on abortion but the people protested against it:
      http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-abortion-idUSBRE85207520120603

      Sure, the Turks don't have abortions as much as a lot of other countries but that's because they don't have to. The Turks are simply not giving birth. They only have one or two kids per family while the Kurds have more. You need at least three per family to increase your population.

      "A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?"
      http://www.ibtimes.com/kurdish-majority-turkey-within-one-generation-705466

      But of course, no one wants to admit the MAIN reason why families wouldn't want to have more than one or two kids, which is married women working.

      When the wife works full time, she won't have the time and energy to raise kids. This wouldn't be a problem if just a few married women worked, but if there is a large societal pressure to make ALL WOMEN work (in the name of the false "equality" god), then you're going to have a demographic crisis.

      The Armenian diaspora from North America is unknowingly contributing to Armenia's demographic decline by supporting these "civic groups" in Armenia that are all about making all women in Armenia work... in the name of "gender equality", not to mention supporting the feminist and gay NGOs.

      In fact, I don't recall ever hearing or reading anything from the North American Armenian websites about how to increase Armenia's fertility rate. Though, there are plenty of articles about fags and their "rights". This shows where their priorities are.

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    2. LGMay 23, 2016 at 6:50 PM

      I am reading a lot of "what's wrong with Armenians, etc" but no solutions. No need to discuss why harping consistently on the negatives creates its own problems. With that said, is anyone interested in offering proactive steps to change the situation or is fatalism the theme of the comments section?

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    3. Razmik ArtashesMay 23, 2016 at 7:22 PM

      @LG

      On an individual level we can do limited things such as:

      1) Learn to become a pragmatic nationalist: Arevordi recently used that term and I liked it. It basically means look at the world as it is without any fantasies, and understand how you can realistically contribute to your homeland in any shape or form. This means that if you (not you personally) are engaged in signing petitions, protesting on April 24, going to Armenia for 2 weeks and making toasts and singing about the homeland, then you're not doing it right. We have more than enough bravado in our folk culture. Alongside it, we have a lot of crying and negativism in our folk culture. Therefore we have a fake superiority/inferiority complex at the same time, which leads us nowhere. So the bottom line is, look at the homeland as it is and don't approach it with fantasies (I've done that mistake in the past, and I'm sure many others have too).

      2) Now that you're a pragmatic nationalist, here is what you can do on a personal level: educate yourself in Armenian History and culture from Prehistory till 1045 AD. Most Armenians are unpatriotic today because they are not հայրենաճանաչ, as in they do not know their history fully in order to completely appreciate it. All what most Armenians (in the diaspora) know are Tigran Mets (by name only), Mashtots, First Christian Nation, Vardanants ("moral victory" bullshit), and the Genocide. Reading our history is important, where we see both our achievements and the sheer number of traitors that have always led us to failure and decline. You can draw many parallels with today just by studying Armenian History.

      3) You will also realize that the Ancient Armenian patriot and the modern Armenian "patriot" have almost nothing in common. This will help you understand the true essence of being Armenian. Therefore, change your mindset based on that.

      4) Finally, this may sound cliché, but have a healthy body. The little things count. Physical fitness is necessary in order to be a good role model to other fellow Armenians, and to your health. I don't agree with everything Samvel Karapetyan says, but in this video he nails it with the subject of smoking, and how it also hindered our fedayees https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueazUzkp7Xw

      On a more social circle level: Educate your relatives and friends, especially those in whom you find the potential to "convert" into the principles.

      Because neither the Armenian state, nor diasporan and religious organizations have taken on the role of a proper Armenian makeover,, on creating a collective "manifesto for the Armenian nation", it is up to the likes of us to start it. I can go on with the points, but let us stick to the above 4 for now.

      Keep this in mind: IF Armenians behaved like their ancient ancestors, where they had moral and warrior codes, where they were more organized than today, where Armenian culture was at a high, where despite all treacherous events Armenia would still come out a better shape than today, then, and only then major powers, including Russia and the west, will take us more seriously.

      Delete
    4. ArevordiMay 23, 2016 at 7:29 PM

      LG,

      Thanks for bringing this up. I agree with you that there is a very fine line between constructive criticism and destructive fatalism. However, what you are seeing is a natural outcome of anger, frustration and concern. The fact is, there is a LOT wrong with us as a people. I don't like talking too much about the positives aspects because it's been way over done. We are constantly telling ourselves how wonderful we are. Frankly, I'm sick of it. One of the problems we have as a people is that not many of us are actually taking about the problems we have as a people. Take a close look at our society to realize that when talking about Armenia's problems, virtually all the talk is about Russians, Turks, oligarchs, Serjik, etc. In other words: All of Armenia's problems is the result of anything but the wonderful Armenian people.

      The first step in remedying any problems is to first ADMIT to yourself that you have a problem. The second step is to IDENTIFY what the problems are. And the third step is to look for remedies. We as a people haven't even gotten to the first step. We as a people desperately need introspection. But, like you said, we also need to be very careful about destructive criticism and doom-and-gloom rhetoric, which is actually one of our problems as a people.

      Anyway, serious problems exist right within our folk culture and there are serious problems with our genetic makeup (traits). Finding solutions for these will prove very difficult essentially because they are very fundamental in nature. In other words: The problems are a part of who we are. It will also be difficult because some of the values and traits we have are a positive thing for us in the Diaspora (i.e. when living in non-Armenian society) but a destructive thing for us in the homeland (i.e. living with Armenians). So, what so you propose we do about these problems and dilemmas?

      Delete
    5. AnonymousMay 23, 2016 at 7:49 PM

      LG
      How often do you find yourself in an Armenian town other than Yerevan? How often do you find yourself in the poorer parts of North Hollywood or Glendale in Los Angeles? If you spent enough time interacting with the locals, and I mean the real locals, not just the college-aged crowd, then you'd inevitably have to conclude that Armenians are not the "diamonds in the rough" that we like to picture ourselves to be, we are a race showing the genetic and cultural effects of being overrun by Turks, Semites, and Gypsies for a millennium. Sadly, fixing bad genetics (and by this I mean the presence of Semitic and Gypsy blood in Armenians) is a monumental task that I don't think can be done at this point in history. Arevordi has suggested importing a limited number of Slavic and Germanic women, but looking at the world today I think that Armenians are more likely to import Turkic and Semitic blood, along with African blood if the extremely positive welcome that interracial porn star Kim Kardashian and her black rapper husband Kanye West received last year in Armenia is any indication.

      I offered my solution: trim all expectations for Armenia's future trajectory down to a level which matches Armenian capabilities. I'll also add that apart from trying to improve Armenians on a genetic or cultural level, the only other effective alternative would be to create a leviathan that beats and frightens Armenians into submission; the KGB was an excellent example as it kept the country orderly, the people in check, and the west out. Throughout our recent history, the Ottomans, the Tsars, and the Soviets figured out that credible threats were a key tool to keeping Armenians governable.

      Fatalism is never a good thing, but neither is delusions of grandeur when the South Caucasus is about to go up in flames. The way Armenians are viewing our situation today would be equal to Armenians in 1914 thinking "gee we won a few skirmishes against the Turks, when the global war reaches our village we will surely kick these backwards Turks' asses, and then after we will force the Russians to fuck off, and ally with Britain and France. How can such a plan fail, we're Armenians and we've had enough, the Hamidian massacres and Adana were the last straw...." It's not a perfect analogy, but close enough.

      Delete
    6. AnonymousMay 23, 2016 at 8:04 PM

      Dro, I appreciate your comment but I see some problems with your arguments.

      The parts where you wrote about the negatives of women working, the diaspora aiding destructive feminist groups, and general pressure not to have large families is correct when applied to the west. That is exactly what is happening in America and the Islamic Caliphate Formerly known as Europe. BUT do you seriously think that enough women in Armenia work that it prevents them from having children? I beg to differ, working women is a problem but I do not believe that the percentage is significant enough to be a problem. The low-birth rate is mainly due to Armenians lacking self-respect, and lacking values which once existed to propel our civilization forward. Ask yourself honestly, given a choice, would your average Armenian prefer a brand new, high-end Mercedes or a healthy son or especially a healthy daughter. Be honest with how you think a majority of Armenian men would select (not what you would select, but the average Armenian man). We see rich countries in Europe not having any more children, we see poor countries around the world exploding in the number of children they have, and yet somehow Armenians managed to be poor and not have any more children - its simply amazing.

      And we are in no position to criticize Turkish demography. They could go a quarter century without bearing any children at all, and still dwarf Armenia. I've heard a few, unreliable sources claim that ethnic Turks will be a minority in Turkey, there is no data to back this up. Turks in Istanbul may have adapted some western degeneracy, but I can assure you the tens of millions of Turks in villages (AKP supporters) are true Muslims, and they keep their bitches in check and popping out kids. I think the claim of "Turks will be a minority in Turkey" is another case of mistakenly analyzing a foreign nation through western filters. Also, the Turks are a strong culture and identity as much as I hate to admit it. They import Muslims from the Balkans, from the Caucasus, and from the Middle East and fully integrate them into the "Turkish" ethnic group.

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    7. LGMay 24, 2016 at 5:01 AM

      Razmik jan,

      Those are all good points and I have incorporated them in my daily life. Some more than others of course, and it is still a work in progress. But I hope you understand that Armenians like us need to unite and create some kind of order. Notice how I did not say political party. This order would promote the values that we have mentioned here. I see it as something akin to the many Catholic orders that exist, which on paper at least, have very noble missions. Because even if each of us does what you suggested in your 4 points but we remain disunited, not much, if anything will change for the better. We can not remain atomized as we currently are. Hence why I am calling for the establishment of a patriotic Armenian order. I am looking forward to reading your thoughts as well as those of the other posters here.

      Arevordi jan,

      I accept most of the criticisms. With the said, now I think it is time to come up with healthy solutions. I don't want to keep reading the same negative comments over and over again, particularly when we are all in agreement that Armenians have flaws that need to be fixed sooner rather than later. I am prepared to take concrete actions and even put my money where my mouth is. Anyone else willing to do the same? Or if you do not have the money, then devote some of your time and energy.

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    8. ArevordiMay 24, 2016 at 5:54 AM

      Razmik,

      I want to commend you for your wisdom and your genuine "pragmatic" nationalism. I wish there were more Armos like you out there. A healthy body, a healthy mind and a healthy soul go together. And thank you for pointing out the scourge of cigarette smoking. After the way Armenian men treat women, their addiction to cigarette smoking it's rally one of the most disgusting aspects of modern Armenian society. Every time I see an Armenian male with a pack of cigarettes in one hand and a cellphone in the other, I feel like banging my head against a wall. And I can't even begin to tell you how upset I get when I see soldiers holding a gun with one hand and a cigarette with the other.

      LG,

      I think talking about this topic (which as I said was the first step in remedying any flaw) is a very healthy thing to do. We need to do a lot more talking and analyzing before things become really clear. For a "patriotic order" to come into existence, it needs benefactors, benefactors who understand and appreciate what we are talking about. I don't think we have such people in our society. Nevertheless, you and Razmik have got it right. The journey essentially starts with us. We can start being good examples and hope it catches on with our family and friends.

      Sarkis,

      This conversation is taking the wrong turn. There is a very fine line between constructive criticism and destructive criticism. There is also a very fine line between being self-critical and self-hating. Although I agree with a much of what you said (yes, a significant portion of Armenians are "central Asian" types), the solutions to our problems however can't be found in Dailystormer or Stromfront. You are approaching this matter from a typical western racist's "white power" perspective. That's a dark road to nowhere. We are who we are. We have to work with what we have. A damage that is one thousand years old cannot be fixed merely by importing nordic women into Armenia. Yes, we need a fresh dose of new (compatible) blood in our gene pool. But, I never suggested importing nordic women into Armenia would cure any of our problems. Artificial measures can never cure fundamental problems. Instead, what we need is introspection and self-analysis on a personal level and programs to better educate our people (starting in kindergarten) on a governmental level. All else will fall into place thereafter.

      Delete
    9. AnonymousMay 24, 2016 at 7:00 AM

      Arevordi,

      Arevordi, importing women was your idea. I merely repeated it because it's actually the only suggestion I have ever heard anyone offer regarding Armenian racial hygiene. And we all agree Armenian genetics need some work, we all agree that for every Mikoyan or Khatchadourian, there are dozens of Armenians who are indistinguishable in behavior and appearance from Turks and Gypsys. Apart from your idea, the only other "fresh blood" solution I have heard is to take back the "crypto-Armenians" from Turkey, which means taking in more half-breed Turks, Kurds, Semites, Caucasoids, etc with an Armenian grandparent. I never said anything about Nordic women, Nordic nations are more screwed up than us Armenians - which is actually a noteworthy accomplishment.

      I never mix "white pride" with Armenian issues because I don't actually identify with any white pride movement myself. I'm an Armenian, first and foremost. I don't really care for more nebulous groupings to base my identity on, even though I do publicly support Eurasianism for the sake of closer relations to Russia. That being said, I do like dailystormer very much because of the humor, it attacks all of the right people, it praises Putin as an alpha male leader and Russia as the last hope for Christianity and traditional European culture, they successfully troll things like the National Review, and it's an excellent place to get articles and have a front-row seat to the freak show experiments going on in the west. But that's the extent of that, most of the comments section on dailystormer articles are a mirror of the extremism and retardation you see on Asbarez, I want nothing to do with most of those types. And BTW I have never really checked out stormfront, but I hear it's a place of Azov Battalion type Nazis. I suppose there wouldn't be a need for dailystormer if the mainstream media wasn't a total joke. Bottom line is, like I told Dro, I don't like trying to fit solutions to western problems on a non-western nation like Armenia; it's just that many of the problems are similar enough that we can learn a thing or two from observing westerners. Every dailystormer linkI post here is for the audience to see just how extremely suicidal the west has become and how dangerous it is for Armenians to continue speaking highly of "shared European values" and greater involvement with the EU - dreams of EU membership or at least westernization on a social level are still alive and well inside Armenia, especially among the naïve youth.

      I'm as "self-hating" as you are, or otherwise I am as constructively critical as you are, depending on how whoever is judging wants to look at things - you are familiar with this. I've spent a lot of time explaining the Armenian geopolitical situation to younger, college educated Armenians. Yet come April 2016, all I heard was "Sak, WTF bro Russia made the Azeris attack Artsakh... I was reading about it on facebook/asbarez/a family friend, etc...." Pretty much not a single rational voice was to be found; I wondered for a second if the people I knew were secretly hyeclub members. I have no other conclusion than "hyeclub level understanding is the maximum Armenians can ever achieve (whether on the Internet or in real life), therefore hyeclub level results are all Armenians will ever get." We don't have it in us to be with foresight and effective like the Jews. I am 100% certain that you have gone through this process yourself several times.

      Delete
  49. skharaMay 21, 2016 at 5:10 PM

    Russia is slowly chipping away at the information sphere:
    This is a nice one:
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/moscow-proposes-joint-syria-air-strikes-us-may-135238322.html?nhp=1

    Several stories up on yahoo about this. Slowly but surely, Russia is exposing the US.

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  50. AnonymousMay 21, 2016 at 10:54 PM

    I give credit where credit is due. I still think Poland is setting itself up for destruction by rushing headfirst into western organizations (NATO, EU, etc.) motivated pretty much solely by Polish hatred of Russia. But Poland and Polish people have also shown a high-level of self-respect: Poland has one of the lowest abortion rates in Europe; Poland has just under forty million citizens and managed to remain as ethnically homogenous as Armenia; Poland recognized the Armenian Genocide unlike France and America even though Poland bases its defense policy 100% around NATO - meaning Poles have enough self-respect not to let their country get bitched around by would-be sultans like Erdogan. I believe Polish self-respect comes from a very strong sense of national identity combined a general Slavic attachment to their motherland, which is in stark contrast to us politically illiterate, semi-gypsy, semi-middle eastern Armenians. As a result, Poles defend their nation no matter what, while we Armenians take every chance we can get to spit at our homeland. Bill "by the grace of Allah death to Serbia" Clinton recently attacked Poland for not being democratic enough, resulting in the Polish government AND the Polish diaspora telling Clinton to go fuck himself:

    Hillary Waylaid by Poles After Bill’s Anti-Pole Comments
    http://www.dailystormer.com/hillary-waylaid-by-poles-after-bills-anti-pole-comments/

    Think about it for a second. American officials routinely call Armenia a road to nowhere, call it a Russian vassal, outright deny the Armenian Genocide, whore around with Turkish and Azeri officials, meddle in internal Armenian affairs, fund regime-change NGOs in Armenia, have embassy officials in Yerevan call for an end to Armenian relations with Russia (Armenia's sole lifeline), falsify Armenian history, take outright anti-Artsakh positions, etc . . . There are a million Armenians in America, and several Armenian media outlets and alleged lobbying organizations. I have not seen a single one ever even remotely protest anti-Armenian activities by US officials. On the contrary, worthless faggots like Seto Boyadjian of the ANCA and Ara "the cock-sucker" Manoogian, groups like the Armenian Assembly, and several Cold War era relics calling themselves experts, along with pseudo-intellectual faggots at keghart.com and other websites regularly incorporate American and Jewish attacks against Armenia in their personal campaigns to destroy what remains of the Armenian state and hand it over to Turks/Azeris.

    Unlike the Poles, the general Armenian population would never protest a statement of "Armenia is not democratic enough" by US officials. The mentally disturbed freaks would start crying tears in an attempt for more recognition is such a statement were made, and they would increase their efforts to join the Turks and Azeris in attacking Armenia, and of course in calling for "Russia out of Armenia." It never occurs to the scumbag diaspora to stand up for Armenia and not let foreign interests undermine the Armenian state. Because, unlike the Poles and unlike the Russians, Armenian in the diaspora have absolutely no self-respect whatsoever. Consequently, Armenia is getting nowhere.

    ReplyDelete

Dear reader,

New blog commentaries will henceforth be posted on an irregular basis. The comment board however will continue to be moderated on a regular basis. You are therefore welcome to post your comments and ideas.

I have come to see the Russian nation as the last front on earth against the scourges of Westernization, Americanization, Globalism, Zionism, Islamic extremism and pan-Turkism. I have also come to see Russia as the last hope humanity has for the preservation of classical western/European civilization, ethnic cultures, Apostolic Christianity and the concept of traditional nation-state. Needless to say, an alliance with Russia is Armenia's only hope for survival in a dangerous place like the south Caucasus. These sobering realizations compelled me to create this blog in 2010. This blog quickly became one of the very few voices in the vastness of Cyberia that dared to preach about the dangers of Globalism and the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance, and the only voice emphasizing the crucial importance of Armenia's close ties to the Russian nation. Today, no man and no political party is capable of driving a wedge between Armenia and Russia. Anglo-American-Jewish and Turkish agenda in Armenia will not succeed. I feel satisfied knowing that at least on a subatomic level I have had a hand in this outcome.

To limit clutter in the comments section, I kindly ask all participants of this blog to please keep comments coherent and strictly relevant to the featured topic of discussion. Moreover, please realize that when there are several "anonymous" visitors posting comments simultaneously, it becomes very confusing (not to mention annoying) trying to figure out who is who and who said what. Therefore, if you are here to engage in conversation, make an observation, express an idea or simply insult me, I ask you to at least use a moniker to identify yourself. Moreover, please appreciate the fact that I have put an enormous amount of information into this blog. In my opinion, most of my blog commentaries and articles, some going back ten-plus years, are in varying degrees relevant to this day and will remain so for a long time to come. Commentaries and articles found in this blog can therefore be revisited by longtime readers and new comers alike. I therefore ask the reader to treat this blog as a historical record and a depository of important information relating to Eurasian geopolitics, Russian-Armenian relations and humanity's historic fight against the evils of Globalism and Westernization.

Thank you as always for reading.

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