Indonesia – Russia opens the Pacific Front - 2007

Indonesia – Russia opens the Pacific Front

As Sun Tsu said:
"Whoever occupies the battleground first and awaits the enemy will be at ease; whoever occupies the battleground afterward and must race to the conflict will be fatigued. Thus one who excels at warfare compels men and is not compelled by other men. Thus the highest realization of warfare is to attack the enemy's plans; next is to attack their alliances; next to attack their army; and the lowest is to attack their fortified cities."

Vladimir Putin has the goal of reestablishing Russia as a world power and returning the world to a multi-polar world. Russia's alliance with China and Iran with their global alliances through economic and military alliances presents the strategic basis for control and the elimination of the hegemony of the United States. The alliances span both the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam as exemplified by the relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Indonesia and Iran. While the politicians and the press are focused on war in Iraq, scant attention is being directed to the greater geopolitical events occurring worldwide. The battleground is already being occupied by the enemies of freedom and liberty. The Russian deal to supply weapons to Indonesia descended on the APEC summit table like a slammed fist. Russia along with their partners is utilizing alliances in the: political, transportation, military, technology, economic, natural resource and energy sectors to accomplish the goal.

Russia seeks access to the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean, the Pacific and the Caribbean. In the space of a few years Russia has managed to create a network of relations that, at a diplomatic level, have launched the Kremlin as an irreplaceable reference point for the central-Asiatic republics, for some middle-east countries, the Pacific Basin and the Caribbean. The network of alliances between Russia, Iran, China, India, Venezuela, Cuba and now Indonesia - motivated exclusively by convenience - have produced an acceleration of economic and financial integration projects. Past differences between Russia and the larger Asiatic nations seem now to be overcome due to the will to reach new common objectives. From this point of view, the intention of the Shanghai Pact's members of including Iran amongst the cooperation organizations, Russia and China's UNSC veto and opposition to imposing sanctions in order to discourage Teheran from pursuing the enrichment of uranium, and the profitable Russian-Iranian cooperation in economic and military fields represent the most significant examples of the sharing of political strategies that antagonize the West.

While the leaders who attended the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Sydney in September 2007 seemed to be united in their call for action on challenging issues such as global warming and economic development, in fact a cauldron of unpredictable discord was simmering just below the surface of smiles and handshakes. While Vladimir Putin arrived at the APEC meetings to open the Russian initiative in the Pacific with the signing of weapons and energy deals with Indonesia, the United States and Japan seemed intent on also creating a new military block in Asia. They have enlisted Australia, India and Singapore as their allies, and the five nations were concluding their first joint military exercises in the Bay of Bengal just as the APEC conference was winding down. In Sydney, the United States, Japan and Australia held separate security talks at which the main topic was how to engage with India. The leading members of this alliance have described their cooperation as focused on their "common interests," and have stressed that it is not aimed against China. Yet there is little evidence to prove this argument. No one knows what scenarios will arise in the future. Is the emerging Asian security paradigm a threat to China?

"The "Malabar CY 07-2" naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal held in the first week of September, 2007 undoubtedly represent a major shift in India's strategic security perceptions. Only the US and Indian navies had been participating in the 12 Malabar series of naval exercises held usually off the west coast of India so far. But Malabar CY 07-2 is different in two ways. First, the size of it; with the participation of nearly 30 warships and 200 aircraft from five nations- Australia, Japan, India, the U.S., and Singapore – makes it the largest ever naval exercise in this part of the world. Second, in a clear departure from the past, qualitatively the exercise is trying out entirely new set of war games in the Bay of Bengal off Andaman." The Cold War should serve as a mirror in this present situation. The confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union in the early years of the Cold War resembles in some respects the situation that is emerging today. The South China Sea was the scene of 13 resource-related military clashes in the 1990s, nine of which involved China.

Political Alliances

Russia – Indonesia

During a one-day visit to Indonesia on September 7, 2007 President Vladimir Putin witnessed the signing of a $1 billion arms deal that many analysts see as part of a broader Russian effort to restore diplomatic and military clout in the Asia-Pacific region and make some money, as well. Indonesia, which until 2005 was under a U.S. arms embargo because of human rights abuses, will purchase Russian tanks, military helicopters and submarines. Last month, Russia said it would sell six fighter jets to Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, as part of the deal. "The deals signed in Indonesia are part of a Kremlin strategy to expand its influence in Asia and the Middle East," said Alexei Makarkin, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow. "Russia is trying to pursue a multipolar policy in the world and considers itself to be one of its poles." "We agreed to develop our cooperation in energy, mining, aviation and the telecommunications sector," said Putin, who stopped in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, on his way to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Australia. "There's also a good perspective in defense and military."

For Indonesia, the country's defense minister said, the deal comes with none of the strings that encumber similar purchases from the United States and Western Europe. "Requirements for purchasing arms from Western countries are complicated, with preconditions attached, such as human rights, accountability, not to mention licensing," Juwono Sudarsono told reporters in Jakarta. "In our past experience with Britain, we were not allowed to use Scorpion tanks in Aceh, even though we were facing armed separatists." Under Putin, Russia has become determined to project its military, diplomatic and energy power into the Pacific, an area it neglected after the fall of the Soviet Union. Besides the arms deal, Russian companies have signed billions of dollars worth of deals in the mining and energy sectors with Indonesian companies, Russian officials said. So it seems that the likes of Indonesia is certainly being subverted into the Moscow-Beijing Axis as the likes of Comrade Czar Vladimir Putin along with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono are signing at least a one billion dollar arms deal. Indonesia is one country in the South Pacific that has one of the largest Muslim populations.

Many Indonesian Muslims are being subverted to be supporting radical "Islamist" leanings through such groups such as the "al-Qaedish" Jemaah Islamiah where it's derived from the "Islamist" Darul Islam (House of Islam), and entrenched itself in the Indonesian Muslim populations since the days of the Indonesian National Revolution, where members of the Soviet-backed Socialist Party of Indonesia attempted to create an "Indonesian Soviet Republic". While the openly "Islamist" movements such as Darul Islam wanted to establish an Islamic theocracy. Even members of the Indonesian Communist Party participated, now banned from Indonesia. But Indonesia in spite of the various governments trying to lean "pro-Western", Indonesia remains a target for recruitment for the Moscow-Beijing Axis. The arms purchase provides that very case.

The Russian – China Alliance

This is exemplified initially in what was known as the Beijing-Moscow Alliance. The first-ever joint Chinese-Russian military exercises took place in Mid-August 2005. The exercises were small in scale — but huge in implication. They indicated a further warming of the "strategic partnership" that Moscow and Beijing struck back in 1996. More importantly, they signal the first real post-Cold War steps, beyond inflammatory rhetoric, by Russia and China to balance — and, ultimately, diminish — U.S. power across Asia. If America doesn't take strategic steps to counter these efforts, it will lose influence to Russia and China in an increasingly important part of the world. In Russia 2007 will be the Year of China. Beijing buys 90 per cent of its military hardware from Russia and insists on building an oil pipeline between the two countries. The two parties are working together to carve out their spheres of influence in Central Asia. China accounts for 40 per cent of Russia's total military sales. China's military needs Russian technology and the two neighbors have been quietly collaborating on ballistic missile research, nuclear technologies and space exploration. Russia and China are also seeking and obtaining western technology in a multitude of ways.

France and Germany, for example, seemed happy to allow Dubai's ruling family to buy its stake in EADS maker of Airbuses and Eurofighters. The fund will not be seeking board representation. Not that it would be able to get it. Appointing EADS directors is a privilege reserved for the members of the shareholder pact that controls 58 per cent of the shares. Rather, as with Dubai International Capital (DIC's) recent purchase of HSBC stock, the strategy is to take long-term stakes in the world's largest companies. The acquisition of shares of HSBC makes it "one of the leading shareholders" in HSBC, Europe's biggest bank. DIC is the private-equity arm of conglomerate Dubai Holding, founded by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who is prime minister and vice president of the United Arab Emirates and ruler of Dubai. Political considerations cannot be ruled out though. The 5 per cent stake in EADS held by Russian bank VTB looks to be aimed partly at winning sub-assembly work and hence technology transfer for Russia. There are signs that Qatar and China may also seek a closer relationship too. For Dubai, the inside track on EADS-owned Airbus wouldn't hurt. Airbus is the main supplier of aircraft to the Emirates airline and Dubai is hoping to expand its position as a major aircraft maintenance hub.

Similarly, in the last few months Russia and China have adopted similar positions on several issues in opposition to the United States, and their relationship is taking on greater weight, especially at the regional level. For example, whilst the Washington has threatened Iran with sanctions if it does not give up its nuclear program, Beijing and Moscow have threatened to use their veto power to block them if they come up at the United Nations. On September 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in the Emirates' capital Abu Dhabi on Monday morning for what is his first official visit there in the 35 year history of Russian-Emirates relations. "Putin's historic visit to the UAE is part of Russia's stated intention of bolstering ties with Arab and Muslim countries," the main daily English language newspaper Gulf News reported Monday and added that trade exchange between Russia and Emirates is expected to reach a record US$800 million this year. The two sides will "naturally, discuss the military-technical cooperation," Russian presidential aide Prikhodko said without providing details, but suggested that the Emirates might be interested in Russian air defense weapons.

The Russian – China - Iran alliance

The cooperation between Moscow and Teheran in a variety of important sectors is becoming more and more intense but is far from representing an exclusive partnership, Moscow's aim is to develop a network of alliances, China and India, in order to propose a valid alternative to US economical and political hegemony. A TEHRAN MOSCOW BEIJING AXIS AGAINST THE WEST on 3September 2001, Volume 4, Number 33 reported: Expediency Council Chairman and former President Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani described trilateral cooperation between Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing as "strategic" during a meeting with the new Russian ambassador, Aleksandr Maryasov, according to state television on 13 August. He added that this three-way cooperation could serve as a counterweight against the West and the U.S., and it would alter international conditions, according to IRNA. On September 4, 2007 Iran's influential Assembly of Experts elected Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as its chairman in a move that could strengthen the pragmatic former president's position in the political hierarchy. "Legally speaking, Mr. Rafsanjani is now in a higher position than Ayatollah [Ali] Khamenei [the supreme leader] but it is early to say how he will use this position," said Ahmad Zeidabadi, a political analyst.


Billions in trade deals expected during Putin's visit to Indonesia

Russia and Indonesia are expected to sign billions of dollars (euros) worth of weapons, mining and oil deals during Russian President Vladimir Putin's first visit to the country this week, a presidential spokesman said Tuesday. Russia will grant Indonesia a US$1 billion (€735 million) credit line to buy Russian military hardware, said spokesman Dino Pati Djalal, without providing details. Indonesian mining company Aneka Tambang will sign a US$3 billion (€2.2 billion) deal with Russian aluminum giant United Company Rusal, while state-owned oil company Pertamina plans to sign a US$1 billion (€735 million) agreement with Russia's LukOil, he said. Putin will meet with Indonesia President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Thursday during a one-day stop over on his way to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Australia. The Russian investment will bring a much-needed boost to foreign capital inflow and help revamp Indonesia's aging mining and oil facilities. It comes just weeks after South Korea announced it signed US$8.5 billion (€6.2 billion) in trade and investment deals with Jakarta. Indonesia has been looking for other sources of arms since the United States — formerly its largest supplier of weaponry — cut military ties in 1999 over human rights concerns. The ban was lifted in 2005, but Jakarta continues to look elsewhere for military hardware. Indonesia is a major arms-buying client for Russia and has spent hundreds of millions of dollars (euros) on fighter jets.


Jitters as Indonesia buys Russian subs

INDONESIA will finalise a $1.2 billion deal with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in Jakarta tomorrow, to fund the purchase of Russian submarines, tanks and helicopters. The acquisition of two high-performance Kilo-class submarines has significant strategic implications for Australia and could erode its naval dominance in the region, military experts believe. An Indonesian Navy spokesman, Sugeng Darmawan, told the Herald long-term plans to buy another eight of the new submarines were already being discussed.

Tomorrow's agreement will deepen military links between Russia and Indonesia as well as upgrading Indonesia's army, navy and air force. It will reduce Indonesia's dependence on US military supplies. Under the deal, Russia will provide a $1.2 billion line of credit to finance the military purchases. Indonesia will acquire two of the most advanced conventional submarines built by Russia, 22 helicopters and 20 tanks. The move will fuel rising concerns about an accelerating regional arms race, with China, Japan and Australia - among others - involved in big military acquisitions. Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum leaders will this weekend discuss concerns about the regional build-up. The head of the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Hugh White, said the submarine purchase would "significantly complicate" Australia's naval planning as they would represent a real threat to surface warships.

"These are Russia's highest quality conventional boats; they would significantly increase Indonesia's capability," he said. "It is most strategically significant for Australia; if there was any conflict with Indonesia these submarines would massively complicate the use of Australian surface ships."

The continuing pattern of big arms purchases in the region was eroding Australia's air and naval advantage, despite the $10 billion acquisition of air warfare destroyers, he said. Australian defence planning has the destroyers as essential to protecting military forces deployed offshore. First Admiral Darmawan said Indonesia's navy was proposing a fleet of 10 submarines and 260 surface ships in the longer term. Mr Putin and the Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, would witness the signing of the deal tomorrow, the Indonesian Defence Ministry spokesman, Edy Butar Butar, said. It is the first visit of a Russian leader to Indonesia and the pair will hold wide-ranging talks before travelling to Sydney for the APEC summit. Stronger trade, as well as military ties, will be endorsed. Brigadier-General Butar said the deal would reduce Indonesia's military dependence on the US.


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Arevordi will be taking a sabbatical to tend to personal matters. New blog commentaries will henceforth be posted on an irregular basis. The comments board however will continue to be moderated on a regular basis.

The last 20 years or so has also helped me see Russia as the last front against scourges of Westernization, Globalism, American expansionism, Zionism, Islamic extremism and pan-Turkism. I have also come to see Russia as the last hope humanity has for the preservation of classical western civilization, Apostolic Christianity and the traditional nation-state. This realization compelled me to create this blog in 2010. Immediately, this blog became one of the very few voices in the vastness of cyberia that dared to preach about the dangers of Globalism and the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance, and the only voice preaching the strategic importance of Armenia remaining within Russia's orbit. From about 2010 to 2015 I did monthly, at times weekly, commentaries about Russian-Armenian relations and Eurasian geopolitics in general. It was very difficult as I had no assistance in this endeavor. The time I put into this blog therefore came at the expense of work and family. But a powerful feeling inside me urged me to keep going; and I did.

When Armenia finally joined the EEU and integrated its armed forces into Russia's military structures a couple of years ago, I finally felt a deep sense of satisfaction and relaxation, as if a very heavy burden was lifted off my shoulders. I finally felt that my personal mission was accomplished. I therefore felt I could take a step back, as I really needed the rest. Simply put: I have lived to see the institutionalization of Russian-Armenian alliance. Also, I feel more confident now that Armenians are collectively recognizing the strategic importance of Armenia's ties with Russia. Moreover, I feel satisfied knowing that, at least on a subatomic level, I had a hand in the outcome. As a result, I feel a strong sense of mission accomplished. I therefore no longer have the urge to continue as in the past. In other words, the motivational force that had propelled me in previous years has been gradually dissipating because I feel that this blog has lived to see the realization of its stated goal. Going forward, I do not want to write merely for the sake of writing. Also, I do not want to say something if I have nothing important to say. I feel like I have said everything I needed to say. Henceforth, I will post seasonal commentaries about topics I find important. I will however continue moderating the blog's comments section on a regular basis; ultimately because I'm interested in what my readers have to say and also because it's through readers here that I am at times made aware of interesting developments.

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