Zbigniew Brzezinski: Kosovo not Precedent for Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Karabakh - March, 2008

With historic land disputes with its Turkic neighbors, good relations with Iran and a strategic alliance with the Russian Federation - Armenia today is a political obstacle in the Caucasus region, as far as Western powers are concerned. But the West can not risk having more inter-ethnic wars in the region because such wars can potentially have a destabilizing effect upon the pro-Western capitols of Tbilisi and Baku and disrupt oil/gas flow to the West from the Caspian Sea region. Also, such wars may also draw Russian forces back into the South Caucasus, which is something the West does not want. Thus, due to these geopolitical/economic factors at play, the West will not engage in any efforts to undermine the Armenian state for now.

It is important to note also that Western powers will not risk attempting a regime change in Yerevan only as long as it believes the Armenian state is militarily and politically powerful and has Russian support. Thus, it's conditional. The West will instead resort to blackmail, bribes and the promotion of internal strife within the Armenian Republic in an attempt to pry Yerevan away from Moscow and make it conform to its regional agenda. The tools that will be used for such an attempt will undoubtedly be pro-Western and Turk-tolerant politicians such as Levon Ter-Petrosian, the exploitation of internal sociopolitical strife (e.g. Artsakhtsi versus Hayastantsi sentiments) and the deceptive/manipulative utilization of concepts such as democracy, liberty, justice and of course the American way.

As we have seen, the West is equipped with a vast array of weapons. If nations won't conform, they bomb them (e.g. Serbia and Iraq). Where bombs would not work, they use money/bribes (e.g. Central Asian republics and Arab nations in the Persian Gulf region). Where bombs and/or money do not work, they use the notion of democracy, human rights as well as western pop culture to soften the masses. This, in essence, is western style Realpolitik. Do we still have masses of idiots believing in the deceptive and destructive concepts of democracy, freedom, human rights, fair elections, etc, as preached by the West? I'm afraid recent developments in Yerevan have clearly revealed that we do. Nevertheless, as we can see by the statements of one of Washington's most senior policymakers, the political West can never be trusted by Armenians.




March, 2008

Caucasus is a shaky region where local conflicts can easily burst out. That is why the international community should be more cautious about Caucasus' security problems and address settlement of territorial and ethnic conflicts, said Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carrter, CSIS Counselor and Trustee. Commenting on Kosovo as a precedent, Mr Brzezinski said, "Kosovo's aspiration for independence was supported by the European Union, which is responsible for further decisions. Independence was a democratic expression of will of Kosovars. I do not think that Kosovo can set a precedent for Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Karabakh." Asked about U.S.' reaction to possible recognition of Abkhazia by Russia, Mr Brzezinski said, "America will not recognize seudo-independence," Georgia Online reports.

Source: http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg226572.html

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