Escalation of Georgian-Abkhazian conflict - April, 2008

I disagree with the assessment in the following article. Yes, in the short term, having Russia beat up on Georgia would have a negative impact on Armenia's economy. However, in the long-term, having Russia beat up on Georgia (i.e. bring Tbilisi back into its orbit by force) would benefit Armenia greatly. Just my opinion.



Sergei Minasyan: Escalation of Georgian-Abkhazian conflict promises no good for Armenia

April, 2008

Military operations are unlikely in the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone, an Armenian political scientist said. “Influence from outside is great. Neither the U.S. nor Russia will allow Georgia to start war. Russia pressurizes deliberately, using the Abkhazian factor for replenishing its peacekeeping contingent. Meanwhile, Georgia tries to gain internal political dividends on the threshold of parliamentary elections. Saakashvili did the same last October. So, I do not think that increasing of the Russian contingent up to 3000 peacekeepers can act as detonator,” Georgia expert Sergei Minasyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. “If a war starts, it will spread over to South Ossetia, thus jeopardizing regional security. Such a scenario promises no good for Armenia, taking into account the importance of communications and specific relations with Russia. Georgia eyes Armenia as a pro-Russian state. But as a matter of fact, we hold a neutral stand,” he said. The Russian leadership has recently accused Georgia of preparing a springboard for attack on Abkhazia. “The number of Georgian troops exceeds 1500 in the upper segment of the Kodor gorge,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Meanwhile, member of Georgian Interior Ministry Shota Utiashvili described it as “misinformation aimed to deteriorate the situation in the conflict zone.” On April 29, the Russian Defense Ministry announced replenishment of peacekeeping forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. “Any Georgia’s attempt to use force to resolve the conflicts will be rebuffed adequately and toughly,” the Ministry said.


In other news:

Russia new missile base response to US

Russia begins the construction of a new missile base in the Southern Caucus region amid a row with the US over its missile shield. Citing informed Georgian sources, the Azeri newspaper Ayna reported that Russia has started the construction work near the Armenian city of Noyemberyan. The report added the base is located in a place overlooking Sadighlu village near the Georgian town of Marneuli and it would reportedly be equipped with advanced air defense and missile systems. The move by Moscow is considered as a response to Washington's plans for stationing the components of a missile defense shield system in Eastern Europe. Russia says the US plan poses a threat to its national security and it has vowed to take retaliatory measures against the United States if Washington goes ahead with the project.


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