Looking at Armenian-Turkish Relations - Without the Paranoia, Obsessions or the Hysteria - October, 2009

Looking at Armenian-Turkish Relations - Without the Paranoia, Obsessions or the Hysteria

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/10/10/world/11clinton2_600.jpg

October, 2009

The so-called protocols have been discussed ad nauseam. Many approaches, be it ideological, nationalistic, political, ethical or spiritual, have been taken into full account. Thus far, the picture painted by many of us Armenians here in the diaspora looks utterly bleak, bordering on apocalyptic. One thing, however, that I have yet to see seriously scrutinized is the crucially important factor of geopolitics, or the thing we call realpolitik. To further reinforce my case, I have provided various links at the bottom of this page regarding some of the interesting geopolitical developments occurring within the Caucasus, somewhat under the mainstream news radar. The information that I am providing here is crucial for better understanding what is transpiring in the Caucasus today. Thus, these links definitely deserve a serious look. I urge you all to make some time and read them. But before that, however, I have a some comments to make.

It may be a Russian project

Basing my opinion on what I have been observing within regional developments for the past several years, it is quite obvious that there are serious plans for the greater Caucasus region, plans in which Armenia may take center stage. The mastermind of this new agenda is Vladimir Putin's Moscow, and one of the most obvious manifestations of this agenda has been the warming of relations between Turkey and Armenia.

Do not believe ignorant talk concerning the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia being a American agenda, for it is far from it. The United States is currently powerless in the Caucasus and will remain so indefinitely. Western powers will be forced to go along with the political/economic process set in motion in the Caucasus by Moscow. Let's remember that the warming of relations between Ankara and Yerevan was started in Moscow shortly before the commencement of the Russian-Georgian war during the summer of 2008. Turkish-Armenian relations then reached a climax when Turkey's Gül visited Armenia in the immediate aftermath of said war. It is crucial to note here that the Russian-Georgian war was a war that saw the decisive defeat of the American-European-Turkish-Israeli backed regime in Tbilisi. According to many international political analysts, Georgia's defeat more-or-less heralded the expulsion of Western, Turkish and Israeli presence from within the Caucasus region. Moreover, unknown by many today, Georgia's defeat in fact stopped Azerbaijan from launching a major military offensive against Artsakh (see related link below). For those who are unfamiliar with the geopolitics of the Caucasus region, the following is a simple explanation:

For the past twenty years or so the political and financial elite in the Western world, in-tandem with Turkey and Israel, has been attempting to wrestle the strategic region of the Caucasus away from Russian control. The bloody Islamic insurgency in Chechnya and the arming of Georgia had been an integral part of this anti-Russian agenda. Although Moscow eventually had success quelling the Western backed Islamic insurgency in the Caucasus, as well as monopolizing Central Asian gas/oil distribution networks and crushing the Western backed regime in Georgia, a potential threat to the Russian Federation will remain in the region for the foreseeable future. This is precisely the reason why Armenia and Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) will continue to play a vital strategic role for the Russian Federation. Needless to say, we Armenians need to be mindful of the fact that without a strong Russian presence in Armenia and the Caucasus, the entire region will no doubt turn into a Turkic/Islamic cesspool and a playground for various intelligence services. The fledgling and vulnerable Armenian republic cannot survive as a nation-state in the Caucasus without an effective Russian presence there.

Moscow is remaking the Caucasus

With the Caucasus now effectively in their hands, and at their mercy, Moscow seems to be embarked on a long term plan to essentially remake the Caucasus. And, for better or for worst, Moscow has decided that it will use its regional strategic partner, Armenia, as its staging-ground for its regional operations. Moscow expects Armenia, its only ally in the region, to project Russian power in the south Caucasus and beyond. Moreover, because Georgia has indefinitely closed its border with Russia and persistent tensions in the Black Sea that may erupt into a major regional war, Moscow is attempting to secure its political and economic interests in the south Caucasus by opening up alternative transit routes via Armenia.

When the Armenian-Turkish dispute is taken care of by Moscow, we can expect Moscow to do the same for the dispute that exists between Armenia and Azerbaijan. All the political indicators today suggest that Moscow will not jeopardies Armenia's existence, its only reliable ally in the region and the only check against Turkish expansionism in the Caucasus. Moscow will not allow Azerbaijan to occupy Artsakh. Moreover, due to Europe's, Turkey's and Israel's dependency on Central Asian gas and oil (the distribution of which Moscow now controls), coupled with the economic crisis that currently engulfs the Western world, Western powers will more-or-less go along with Moscow's plans. In other words, Western powers have conceded defeat in the Caucasus. Thanks to Russia, Armenia is gradually becoming a pivotal player in the region.


Armenia's political leadership needs support

Before we figuratively speaking begin hanging our nation's leadership for some vague wordage used on some piece of paper, let's all first realize that a tiny, impoverished, remote and landlocked nation surrounded by enemies in the Caucasus has very limited leverage on the international negotiations table. Our political leadership in Yerevan needs to be commended for their efforts in keeping our nation afloat against great odds. Armenia has cemented its strategic ties with Moscow, it has nurtured good relations with Tehran and it has also kept close to the Western world. And now, an economic and military giant in the region, Turkey, who also happens to be Armenia's historic enemy, has been forced to sit at the negotiation table with Yerevan. For a tiny, poor, landlocked nation in the volatile Caucasus, this has been an impressive feat by our nation's leadership and diplomatic corps.

Nonetheless, we must realize that Armenia is not, nor can it be under its current geopolitical circumstances, truly an independent state. What we need to be grateful about, however, is the simple fact that for once in our recent history, we as a nation serve the strategic interests of a major superpower. And what we can take pride in is the simple fact that as a result of our strategic relationship with Moscow Armenia's borders (as well as that of Artsakh's) have never been stronger. As a matter of fact, Turkey agreeing to open borders with Armenia while Artsakh firmly remains under Armenian control has been a major victory for the Armenian side. We, as a nation, need to take advantage of this rare opportunity to strengthen our republic.


Nevertheless, don't worry folks, even if Armenia's leadership were all a bunch of traitors and they all wanted to sell Armenia to the Turks, Russians would not allowed it, nor would Iranians for that matter. Let's not forget what happened to Vazgen Sargsyan and Karen Demirjian when they got too close to Western powers back in 1999. Therefore, don't kid yourselves, Yeltsin's Russia is long gone. If the Kremlin today thought that the southern Caucasus would be penetrated by Turks as a result of open borders with Armenia, there would be no Turkish-Armenian relations to speak of today. Bluntly put, I have more trust in the FSB and the GRU to protect Armenia from a Turkish infestation than I do on us Armenians. 


And for many of us to suggest that with the borders open Turkey will somehow outsmart Russians, Armenians and Iranians in the south Caucasus, when in fact Ankara is utterly afraid of Russia's military might and is dependent on Russian trade and energy is, simply put, stupid. Individuals who think this way need to better understand the nature of geopolitics and closely monitor what is transpiring in the Russian Federation today. Besides, the Armenian market is already flooded today with Turkish goods coming via Georgia. In reality, there has never been any obstacles for Turkish goods from reaching Armenia. So then why not just cut out the middleman in Tbilisi? 

Turkish businessmen buying up Armenian businesses? Ridicules! Turkish businessmen did not need "open borders" to do that. Turkish individuals have had access to Armenia essentially since Armenia's independence. Moreover, many of us are unaware (because many of us are blinded by panic today) that Armenian governmental officials have already began to take preventative measures to protect the republic's economic infrastructure from potential problems that may occur in the future. Nonetheless, talk about Turks overwhelming Armenia's economy when the borders are opened is nothing but politically motivated fearmongering.

Armenia's progress and development is number one priority

I personally do not believe that our leadership in Yerevan is stupid, in that they do not understand politics. Nor do I believe that they are treasonous, in that they have been bought by Turks. On the contrary, I am deeply impressed by President Serj Sargsyan's foresight and courage in all this. Our leadership in Yerevan is forced to go along with the greater agenda that has been placed on the table by the major powers, and they are trying hard to extract some benefit from it. Let us also take into serious consideration the troubling realization that Armenia has been stagnating politically and economically due to its idle economy, political isolation and poverty. If nothing is done about this serious predicament, in a generation or two our landlocked and resource-less country may forever sink into Third World status, and that would mean political instability. The leadership in our republic is expected to do anything and everything to ensure Armenia's prosperity and longevity.

In my opinion, as a result of recent political developments in the Caucasus, Armenia has not been in a better position, politically speaking, in perhaps a thousand years. Baring any unexpected calamities in the region, natural or manmade, I have to say that for the first time in my life I am actually seeing some light at the end of our nation's long dark tunnel. There is the real possibility today for Armenia to become a regional trade hub in the foreseeable future.

Might makes right

Some of you may ask what about Western Armenia and efforts to make the world recognize the Armenian Genocide? Well, the harsh reality of the matter is, Western Armenia can only come under Armenian control when Armenia becomes a powerful nation and is able to take it back from Turkey at the cost of blood. And the only way Turkey will recognize the Armenian Genocide and pay its long overdue reparations is when it is on its knees. Anyone that thinks any of this can be done otherwise is delusional. From the beginning of time it's been - might makes right - and it's no different today. 
International law is made and broken by the rich and the powerful of this world.

It does not matter if Armenia officially recognizes the Turkish border or not. Recognition of borders, legal documents and treaties are made to be broken. Examples are far too many to cite. Let the politicians play their games on the international stage, it is the responsibility of the rest of us to keep the light of Western Armenia lit within our households until the day comes when Ankara is on its knees. Until then, however, the prosperity and security of the current Armenian state takes precedence over all other concerns. As Armenians our number one priority today should be to secure Artsakh's independence or its unification with Armenia and to strengthen the Armenian republic militarily, demographically, economically and politically. Everything else is secondary, as far as I'm concerned.

Diaspora's shortsightedness

This is the time for our diaspora to get active in our homeland. However, the self-destructive rhetoric of the political opposition against the political process at hand has been deeply disheartening for me. From Los Angeles to Beirut, I have only observed hysteria, paranoia, ignorance and self-serving political agendas. Yes, I understand that it is politically healthy for our nation's intellectuals and leading political activists to oppose the "protocols" for whatever reason they wish to oppose it for, ultimately because it gives our statesmen more leverage on the negotiation table. But for us to begin mass hysteria and spew hate against our nation's representatives is unacceptable and counterproductive.
 

Sadly, our diaspora’s decades long obsession with genocide recognition has handicapped it psychologically, so much so that today it is unable to function outside of the genocide perspective. This is essentially the reason why many diasporans today are unable to see the meaning of life as Armenians when the so-called protocols are ratified. This saddens me greatly. How shallow, how conditional, is our Armenian identity? The Armenian diaspora needs to better understand the nature of geopolitics in the volatile Caucasus and it needs to better consider Armenia's long term national interests. We Armenians also need to realize that the ones today putting a wedge between the diaspora and Armenia are not Armenian officials, Turks, Westerners or Russians... it is us diasporans. Shame on us! As I said, this is the time for the diaspora to get active in our homeland.

In closing I would like to say that with some concerns and reservations I remain hopeful that something good will come out of the current political process. I am looking at what's occurring in Armenian-Turkish relations objectively and rationally, without the paranoia, hysteria or obsessions expressed by many of us today. Nevertheless, decisions have been made by higher powers and whether we like it or not things are going to change, if not now then later. It's best to adapt to these changes now. The new geopolitical climate in the Caucasus today can prove to be a great opportunity for Armenia if our nation's representatives play their cards correctly. The current political climate may yet prove to be the best opportunity Armenia has had in a thousand years. Yet, due to the shortsighted and narrow mindsets present in our communities, many among us (if not the majority) would rather prefer Armenia to be left out of process. It's as if as long as our homeland fits our shallow ideologies and narrow expectations, we could careless if Armenia forever remains a Third World nation on the brink of annihilation. We, in the diaspora, as long as we choose to remain in the diaspora, have no right to 'demand' anything from Armenia's officials. Armenia cannot be allowed to become the diaspora's test tube nor should Armenia be held hostage to the diaspora's ideological whims.

I ask you again to read the information from the following sources to better understand what is happening in the Caucasus today.

Arevordi

***
Opening of Armenian-Turkish Border Should be a Russian but not a U.S. Project: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=27006

Turkish-Azerbaijani “Cold War:” Moscow Benefits from Washington’s Indecisiveness: https://jamestown.org/program/turkish-azerbaijani-cold-war-moscow-benefits-from-washingtons-indecisiveness/

The Caucasus: Small War, Big Damage: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t...6.php?CID=1176

That Was No Small War in Georgia — It Was the Beginning of the End of the American Empire:
http://donvandergriff.wordpress.com/...erican-empire/
Shifting Geopolitics- The Rise of Russia and Turkey: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9509.html
Russia's Invasion of Georgia: Strategic Implications: http://www.policypointers.org/Page/View/7951
Caucasus: The War That Was, The World War That Might Have Been: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14779

A Superpower Is Reborn:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/opinion/24steel.html?_r=1

Armenia would be in a state of war should Georgia’s plan not fail in 2008:
http://panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=35172
U.S. Sees Much to Fear in a Hostile Russia: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/22/world/europe/22policy.html

Caucasus Is Real Citadel of Russian Power:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...le/383525.html

A Northern Neighbor Growls, and Azerbaijan Reassesses Its Options:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/wo...i.html?_r=1&em

RUSSIA: MOSCOW MULLS CONSTRUCTION OF ARMENIA-IRAN RAILWAY LINK:
http://www.eurasianet.org/department...v093009b.shtml

ARMENIA: RAILWAY PREPARES TO GO TO TURKEY:
http://www.eurasianet.org/department...v092909c.shtml

Seven-thousand kilometer project is awaiting parliamentary approval: http://www.sabahenglish.com/news/8386.html

Turkish press: EU to involve Armenia in Nabucco project at Georgia’s expense:
http://news.am/en/news/3805.html

Asian Bank To Fund Road Projects In Armenia, Georgia:
http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/1839958.html

Alexey Miller: Iran, Turkey to do gas swaps through Armenia:
http://news.am/en/news/3883.html

Gasprom considers possible construction of oil refinery in Armenia:
http://www.arka.am/eng/energy/2009/06/23/15426.html

Russia signs deal to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant:
http://en.rian.ru/business/20090806/155747143.html

Azerbaijan: The Stark New Energy Landscape:
http://www.turkishforum.com.tr/en/co...rgy-landscape/

YEVSEYEV: TURKISH-ARMENIAN DIALOGUE TOWARDS RUSSIAN INTERESTS:
http://www.historyoftruth.com/news/y...ests-3978.html

Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Is Possible – and Necessary:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=10083

Turkey in tight spot between Russia and NATO:
http://www.reuters.com/article/reute...BrandChannel=0

Turkey Plays to Russia in Caucasus:
http://www.kommersant.com/p1022936/r...rkey_Caucasus/
Russia is determined to bring NATO’s Expansion Eastward to a Halt: http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10237

Iran/Russia - a deadly embrace - part I (video): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uowvTCtZws

Iran/Russia - a deadly embrace - part II (video): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UY_rxOlly4
Turkey's Guilty Conscience: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/09/turkeys_guilty_conscience?page=0,2
Armenia: Russia's Strengthening Hand: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/armenia_russias_strengthening_hand
USA trying to break up Armenian-Russian military relations, general says: http://www.eurasianet.org/resource/armenia/hypermail/200005/0040.html
Obamas Caucasus Diplomacy Under Radar: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-mankoff/obamas-caucasus-diplomacy_b_325350.html
Russia Georgia... and Iran: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/howard-schweber/russia-georgia-and-iran_b_123028.html
Putin as Energy Tsar Russian Gas Outflanks US Missiles: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fiderer/putin-as-energy-tsar-russ_b_118920.html
Diplomacy Could Fool the World or Change the Caucasus: http://www.neurope.eu/articles/97033.php
Russia, Iran and the Biden Speech: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091026_russia_iran_and_biden_speech?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=091026&utm_content=readmore
Turkish-Armenian Protocols: Reality and Irrationality: http://www.hairenik.com/weekly/2009/10/01/davidian-turkish-armenian-protocols-reality-and-irrationality/
RUSSIA-USA-IRAN AND ENERGY SECURITY OF ARMENIA: http://www.noravank.am/en/?page=analitics&nid=2082

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Dear reader,

New blog commentaries will henceforth be posted on an irregular basis. The comment board however will continue to be moderated on a regular basis. You are therefore welcome to post your comments and ideas.

I have come to see the Russian nation as the last front on earth against the scourges of Westernization, Americanization, Globalism, Zionism, Islamic extremism and pan-Turkism. I have also come to see Russia as the last hope humanity has for the preservation of classical western/European civilization, ethnic cultures, Apostolic Christianity and the concept of traditional nation-state. Needless to say, an alliance with Russia is Armenia's only hope for survival in a dangerous place like the south Caucasus. These sobering realizations compelled me to create this blog in 2010. This blog quickly became one of the very few voices in the vastness of Cyberia that dared to preach about the dangers of Globalism and the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance, and the only voice emphasizing the crucial importance of Armenia's close ties to the Russian nation. Today, no man and no political party is capable of driving a wedge between Armenia and Russia. Anglo-American-Jewish and Turkish agenda in Armenia will not succeed. I feel satisfied knowing that at least on a subatomic level I have had a hand in this outcome.

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