Discussions
on Ukraine and Crimea these days are inevitably ending up with
questions regarding the military parity between the armed forces of the
Russian Federation and the Western world. Therefore, it was only
natural, if not inevitable, that this blog's resident military analyst
would provide our virtual community with an exclusive report on the
subject matter. Following this little prelude, I am very pleased to present to
you comrade Zoravar's assessment of the military situation in Crimea and the balance of power that currently
exists between the Russian Federation and the West.
For further perspective on regional conflicts, please make
sure to revisit Zoravar's three previous blog entries -
Syrian Conflict: A Brief Military Analysis (June 2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/06/syrian-conflict-brief-military-analysis.html
A Call to Arms (November, 2011): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/11/call-to-arms-november-2011.html
Russia Military Update (December, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/12/military.html
In a move only befitting a veteran grossmeister, President Vladimir Putin has begun to recreate a "Maidan" in eastern Ukraine. Barricades, burning tires, hooded men with clubs and shields, occupation of public buildings, clashes with police, calls for liberation, proclamations of independence, accusations of foreign meddling, threats of a crackdown... It's all there.
And now, the battle for Ukraine has entered a new and perhaps a final phase. It is clear that Moscow is luring Kiev to overreact. Moscow is also forcing Western officials to publicly speak against the very same tactics they used only weeks ago to topple the pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine. As Russia expertly reveals the Western world's criminality, hypocrisy and impotence, it is meticulously setting up its field of play throughout eastern and southern Ukraine.
Moscow may be hoping for the "Karabakhization" of eastern and southern Ukraine.
As of this writing, pro-Russian separatists (most probably led by GRU operatives) have occupied government buildings in several strategic eastern Ukrainian cities and Moscow has amassed tens-of-thousands of troops and military hardware right on the border of eastern Ukraine. Moscow is patiently waiting to see what Kiev and their benefactors in the West will do next. I strongly suspect that Kremlin officials are actually hoping for a harsh overreaction by the Western-backed regime in Kiev.
Will Kiev take the bait?
An early attempt by Kiev ended in utter humiliation when the Ukrainian military unit hastily sent to quell the unrest in the east quickly defected to the Russian side. If Kiev garners enough courage (or is pushed into the fire by its Western benefactors) and attempts to do more militarily, and there is widespread bloodshed as a result, Moscow will have the legitimate excuse to send in Russian troops. This is not a theory of mine. Moscow officials have publicly stated their readiness to "respond if Russia's interests are attacked" in eastern Ukraine. If Kiev does not send in large numbers of its security forces, and thereby allows pro-Russian forces to dig in and further spread their movement throughout eastern and southern Ukraine, the entire region in question will effectively become a semi-autonomous region taking orders from Moscow - similar to the situation that has existed in Armenia's Nagorno Karabakh province for the past twenty years.
Therefore, it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for Kiev.
Thus far, Kiev's reaction has been very limited and quite measured. They are periodically carrying out small raids against pro-Russian activists and pulling back. There are small numbers of casualties on both sides as a result of these measures by Kiev. The arson that led to the deaths of several dozen unarmed pro-Russian civilian activists in Odessa was a criminal act carried out by extremist thugs from western Ukraine (perhaps with the blessings of Kiev), they were not the result of a military strike.
Nevertheless, the illegitimate regime in Kiev and Western powers must be realizing that if given the order to move west, within a few hours the Russian forces stationed on Ukraine's eastern borders will smash right through any defense lines Kiev is capable of erecting and within a few days reach the Dnieper River and it will be the death of Ukraine as we knew it. The Russian military has already finalized its invasion plans. I am confident that as I write these words, Russian special forces are setting up positions throughout eastern and southern Ukraine in an attempt to gather military intelligence and, if need be, ambush Ukrainian military units that may enter the region. If the shooting begins, and the Russian military crosses the border, we can all expect another short war.
Needless to say, faced with a monumental disaster of its own making, the West is in a serious panic for they have absolutely no levers against Russia - other than disseminating anti-Russian hysteria and disinformation through their propaganda outlets.
Western news media's complicity
Isn't it revealing just how complicit the Western news media overall has been in all this? When observing any one of the news organizations in question, one immediately gets struck by the troubling realization that when it comes to serious political matters, somehow all their talking points suddenly become identical.
Case in point: When they are reporting on the pro-Russian protests in eastern and southern Ukraine, every single one of the news commentators in the US now make sure to add that Russian money and Russian provocateurs are behind the unrest, despite the fact that there exists no credible evidence behind the accusation. Yet not a single one of the Western news outlets in question covered the widespread reports of Western provocateurs and Western money in Ukraine that led to the ouster of its democratically elected pro-Russian president. While every single one of the Western news outlets were reporting that EuroMaidan protesters were pro-democracy activists seeking justice and freedom from corruption, they are all now claiming that eastern Ukrainian activists are Russian-backed separatists seeking secession.
Or when they all report: "Western sanctions are 'hurting' Russia"... "Russian Ruble and the Russian economy is 'tanking' as a result of Crimea"... "The White House 'warns' Russia"... "Obama 'tells' Putin"... "The US and its allies are standing up to Russia"... "the 'world' is united against Russia" "US is bolstering its forces in Europe".
Moreover, has the reader noticed that after being relentlessly bombarded by countless heartrending reports about individual "EuroMaidan" protestors - all to put a human face on the struggle of course - all of a sudden, not a single news organization in the West wants to cover the struggle of pro-Russian protesters?!
The most sickening example of this has been how the Western news media's coverage of the murder of over forty unarmed civilians in Odessa by pro-Kiev mobs in plain sight. Had this deliberate murder of unarmed civilians occurred back during the Maidan protests in Kiev and the culprits were President Yanukovych's supporters, every single one of the propaganda outlets posing as news organizations in the Western world would have bombarded their viewing audience with a multitude of heartrending news reports on a 24/7 basis. The faces of the dead would be made public for all to see and lament. Emotional interviews with dead activists' family members and friends back in their home villages and towns is all we would be seeing for days on end. But since all the dead in Odessa were from the pro-Russian side, all the news coverage in the Western world has been deliberately vague and misleading.
How can this be?
How can there be so much in common between the official line peddled in Washington and what "independent" news organizations in the Western world, regardless of whether they are on the "left" or on the "right", are reporting? How can such a thing happen if there really exist such a thing called "independent journalism" in the Western world?
Well folks, similarity of rhetoric between Western officials and Western news press does not happen by chance because the news press in the West has not been independent for a very long time. Let's remind ourselves that something as important as the news media - a powerful method of controlling the sheeple's minds - will not be allowed independence. There is in fact high level coordination and collaboration between the Western world's mainstream news media outlets and Western power-centers.
The Western news media's coverage of topics related to the Russian Federation can be described more as psychological operations (psy-ops) and mental conditioning of the audience than as reporting the news. Yes, I agree that Russia Today (the very popular English language, Russian state sponsored news organization led by the Russian-Armenian Margarita Simonyan) also engages in similar tactics when it comes to topics pertaining to the West. But, unlike news organizations in the US, RT has never claimed to be an independent news outlet. The problem here is that the US news press is supposed to be independent. Remember?
Incidentally, when it comes to eastern Ukraine, why do we see the sudden and total absence of Western funded NGOs that were in the business of promoting human rights, democracy and self-rule in Kiev just recently? Why aren't these Western funded NGOs also promoting the right to self-determination in eastern and southern Ukraine and chronicaling the human rights abuses by the Western backed junta in Kiev?
This is the point we need to brand in our minds: Western news media outlets are in the business of disseminating Western propaganda and psy-ops - not news. Their persistent and intense information war against Russia is primarily meant to alter/condition the mindsets of the Western public by boosting their confidence, placating their fears and reenforcing the notion in their minds that Russia is an oppressive yet backward nation - but one that is also afraid of the West. They are trying to convey a message that Washington is still leading, still powerful and still in control. God forbid their decades long game of make belief falls apart and they are exposed to what they really are.
Western sanctions will ultimately help Russia
Western sanctions, as predicted, have not hurt Russia. None of the sanctions envisioned by the West is capable of truly hurting Russia. They will sooner hurt the EU. The Russian Federation is one of the most self-reliant nation-states on earth. In fact, Western sanctions have only served to encourage Russians to turn inward and eastward. West-leaning voices in Moscow are becoming increasingly marginalized, east-leaning voices in Moscow are gaining strength. Today, there is the possibility for an even closer alliance to be formed between Russia and China. We shouldn't be surprised if the great German nation also joins this alliance in some form, after it finally frees itself from Anglo-American-Judeo occupation. Russia, Germany, China, such an alliance can effectively end the two hundred year old Anglo-American era.
As a result of Western aggression, talk about abandoning the US Dollar as a global reserve currency is once more gaining momentum. News reports out of Moscow recently are loud signals pointing to this direction. Needless to say, Western officials are panicking. The Western world essentially exists as a result of the US Dollar's status as global reserve currency. If this all snow balls and the US Dollar gradually stops being used in international transactions... party over! The Soviet Union's tumultuous collapse will look like a leisurely walk through pretty flower garden compared to what the Western world will suffer.
As Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi found out, Western officials take attempts against the global hegemony of the US Dollar very-very seriously. But, as the West is now finding out, Russia is not Iraq nor is it Libya.
With that said, just think for a moment: What right do Western officials have in telling other nations what currency they can trade with? What right do Western officials have in confiscating people's bank accounts for political reasons? What right do Western officials have in telling other nations who they can and cannot trade with? What right do Western officials have in placing embargoes on nations who don't comply with Western demands?
The near total control the Western world has over global trade and finance is the greatest danger mankind faces today. The much touted "globalized economy" is thoroughly rigged by Western powers. Consequently, all roads inevitably lead to the Anglo-American world. If nations of the world are forced to trade with the West, if nations of the world are forced to use its currency for trade, how can they ever effectively stand up to the West when the West moves against them?
It's a wonderful racket the Western world has had in place since Bretton Woods. For humanity's sake, for our children's sake, I can only hope that this over seventy year old abomination is coming to an end. Nevertheless, recent events have once again reinforced the notion that the world's financial and economic levers have to be taken away from Western control and the US Dollar has to be dethroned.
The Russian Spring has arrived
Very methodical, very patient, very thorough, very professional, very meticulous. The Russian Bear has been very impressive. Russia's reaction to the situation in Crimea and eastern Ukraine has been, in my opinion, the most impressive yet non-lethal national liberation campaign we have seen in modern times. The strategic Crimean peninsula has been reunited with Mother Russia and eastern and southern Ukraine are, at the very least, on the path to federalization or self rule. The following are my previous three blog entries on the crisis in Ukraine. Please revisit them for more insight -
The Battle For Ukraine: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-battle-for-ukraine-december-2013.html
The Battle For Ukraine II: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-battle-for-ukraine-ii-february-2014.html
Russia reclaims Crimea: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2014/03/in-historic-dispute-with-west-russia.html
Abruptly
awakened in the summer of 2008, the Russian Bear is now awake and
on the prowl. It's been a brilliant display of diplomacy, public relations, realpolitik, cyber warfare, special operations
and military
might, the likes of which we have not seen in decades, and the likes of
which only President Putin could provide. Like a well-oiled and finely-tuned machine, Russian special forces were able to paralyze the Ukrainian military and fully secure the entire Crimean peninsula - without a single shot fired in anger.
Hundreds-of-thousands of Russian troops and thousands of
units of military hardware have been on the constant move from the
Baltics to the Far East in an impressive show-of-force not seen in the
world for decades. There even
was an ICBM test lunch, in case the aforementioned was not enough to
impress or to distress Russia's antagonists. The reunification of Crimea with Mother Russia was
so efficient and esthetically pleasing that political observers and military enthusiasts
worldwide, including Westerners, have been in absolute awe. Yes folks, the Russian Spring has arrived, although not in the way Western demons were hoping for -
Наши боевые вертолёты в Крыму. Весна 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWZncYPkNTQ
Russia's
armed forces have come a very long way since they liberated Abkhazia and South
Ossetia during the summer of 2008. Although Russia's military at the time had achieved all its
objectives against Georgia's
Western/Israeli/Turkish
trained and armed forces with relative ease and low numbers of casualties, it was
still clearly rough around the edges and its military hardware left a lot to be
desired. But as veteran journalist
David Ignatious and the world renowned Western military publication Janes have attested, times
are indeed changing. President Putin's efforts to reform and
modernize Russia's armed forces has been a success and this something that is
deeply troubling Western powers.
Russia today is executing politics in a brilliant manner, drawing from all classical schools-of-thought pertaining to propaganda, statecraft and warfare. None of this should have surprised Western observers for Russia today is in its element.
Russia today is executing politics in a brilliant manner, drawing from all classical schools-of-thought pertaining to propaganda, statecraft and warfare. None of this should have surprised Western observers for Russia today is in its element.
Russia's natural need for defensive
depth
When
it comes to understanding Moscow's actions, disregard every single
explanation you have heard from every single expert, analyst or observer
in the Western media and consider the following.
Foremost, Moscow is not trying to resurrect the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire. Yes, many of the ceremonial rituals adopted by the modern Russian state are inspired by Czarist Russia. Yes, Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. President Putin is also said to have said: Those who do not feel bad about the demise of the Soviet Union have no heart, those who want it back have no brains.
Once more, for those Armenians who as a result of Western propaganda are having problems with reality: Deeper Russian involvement in Armenia simply means closer, more effective political, military, economic and financial cooperation between former Soviet states - and not the lose of Armenia's "independence" as our Western funded activists are desperately trying to convince us. In creating the CSTO and the Eurasian Union, Russia is putting together an answer to the monopoly set up by EU and NATO.
No, Bolshevism is not returning to Moscow. No, the Soviet Union is not returning to Armenia. And no, the Russian nation does not have the appetite - or is stupid enough - to ever seek the resurrection of the Russian Empire. Thus, when we talk about greater Russian involvement in the context of former Soviet republics, what we are essentially talking about is a Russian-led confederation of independent states closely working with each other. Suggesting anything else is utter nonsense derived from Western propaganda, political illiteracy and/or paranoia. We therefore need to put aside the silly notion that Russia is somehow trying to recreate the "Soviet Union". This type of tacky fearmongering is the by-product of professional Russophobes such as Zbigniew Brzezinski, warmongering psychopaths like John McCain and opportunistic reptiles like Hillary Clinton.
So then, why is Russia stirring as of late?
Simply put: Because they don't want to be faced with confronting their enemies at their doorstep, where it's too late.
Major powers seek to surround themselves with allied or, at the very least, neutral powers that do not pose an economic or militarily threat. For military planers in charge of securing national borders, securing something that is know as satellite states, defensive depth, forward defense, buffer zones or zones of influence are an essential part of a comprehensive national defense formula.
What Moscow has therefore been doing in its "near abroad" (i.e. former Soviet territory) is something all nation-states do to protect themselves. This is especially the case with major nation-states who have historically had serious problems with neighbors. Russia's military actions need to be looked at from within such a prism.
Once opposing powers have set-up shop at your doorstep, you have already lost half the battle. Since Russian society by in-large has been able to resist the corrosive effects of Western Globalism and have maintained Russian nationalism, conservatism and Christian faith, no self-respecting Russian official today will be comfortable with NATO and EU closing on the borders of Russia. Western officials know this very well but encroaching on Russian territory is exactly what they have been doing.
Western European powers have the Atlantic Ocean and allied buffer states in central and eastern Europe for their defensive depth. The United States has two natural barriers: Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and two allied buffer states, Canada and Mexico for its security. On the other hand, the Russia Federation, a vast tract of land that stretches from Europe to the Far East, does not have the luxury of its peers in the Western world. Be it in central Europe, the Baltics, Scandinavia, the Arctic region, the Black Sea region, the Caucasus (north and south), central Asia, Chinese border or Alaska, Russian officials are constantly on the watch. It's not an enviable responsibility, but it is admirable how successful Russian leaders have been for the most part during the past several hundreds.
Russia's geography has for
ages dictated Russian political policy and has given Russians themselves their
unique characteristics. Russia's
legendary military prowess is a
by-product of the Russian people's genetic makeup, its folk culture and
the harsh realities of Russia's geography. Russia's statecraft including its military is thus a
reflection of Russia's natural needs.
For further insight into Russian nationalism and the mindset of the Kremlin in recent years, please devote some time to watching Vladimir Pozner's fascinating interview with Alexander Dugin. Dugin is a well known Russian ideologue and a political philosopher with close ties to Kremlin officials. The ideas, philosophies, culture, social agendas and political formulas represented by men like Dugin are what the Anglo-American-Jewish global establishment fears the most in Russia today. An English language transcript is available -
Познер Александр Дугин 21 04 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMs7zTAwE1s
During the early post-Soviet
years, Moscow begrudgingly tolerated Western inroads into former communist
regions of eastern-Europe simply because it was in no shape or form to react in any meaningful
way.
Western policymakers, however, knew very well that Ukraine, Belarus and greater Caucasus region would be Moscow's red lines for these were strategic regions Russia would not give up. Perhaps it was their imperial hubris that blinded them, perhaps desperation. Regardless of why they did what they did in Ukraine, the Western world will now have a rude awakening for this is not 1853, nor is this the 1990s. The Russian Bear has come out of its hibernation and it is hungry and angry and there is nothing Western powers can do to stop it.
Western policymakers, however, knew very well that Ukraine, Belarus and greater Caucasus region would be Moscow's red lines for these were strategic regions Russia would not give up. Perhaps it was their imperial hubris that blinded them, perhaps desperation. Regardless of why they did what they did in Ukraine, the Western world will now have a rude awakening for this is not 1853, nor is this the 1990s. The Russian Bear has come out of its hibernation and it is hungry and angry and there is nothing Western powers can do to stop it.
The Western military is a paper tiger
Long
range cruise missiles... scify looking "special ops" troops... stealth
bombers... fifth generation fighters... pilot-less drones roaming the
skies... aircraft carrier groups roaming the oceans... bombing tribal villages... terrorizing third
world populations!!!
I'm really not all that impressed.
Omit the nuclear factor, Western militaries, including the armed forces of the US, are paper tigers that only excel at sexual assaults, drug abuse, suicide and of course committing atrocities against third world populations.
If I had to described Western military in a few words, it would be: Drug induced, multiracial, sexually deviant hordes armed with fancy yet expensive gadgets that don't always work.
Historically, Anglo-American militaries (particularly their land forces) have never been very effective in combat against equals. Napoleon's depleted and exhausted army in 1812 was defeated by Prussians, not the British. Anglo-American-French forces did not militarily defeat Germany during the First World War, Germany surrendered due to domestic problems. Nazi Germany was defeated only when the Soviet Union turned the tide in 1943 as a result of a series of German military blunders. Japan was only defeated when the US resorted to using atomic bombs. In both world wars, the US entered the European theater of war during its closing stages. The Korean war was a stalemate. The Vietnam war was a defeat. The West didn't dare engage the Serbian army in ground warfare. Iraq and Afghanistan wars have been failures for the most part. Libya was less like a war and more like an armed robbery of a wealthy yet vulnerable nation.
I'm really not all that impressed.
Omit the nuclear factor, Western militaries, including the armed forces of the US, are paper tigers that only excel at sexual assaults, drug abuse, suicide and of course committing atrocities against third world populations.
If I had to described Western military in a few words, it would be: Drug induced, multiracial, sexually deviant hordes armed with fancy yet expensive gadgets that don't always work.
Historically, Anglo-American militaries (particularly their land forces) have never been very effective in combat against equals. Napoleon's depleted and exhausted army in 1812 was defeated by Prussians, not the British. Anglo-American-French forces did not militarily defeat Germany during the First World War, Germany surrendered due to domestic problems. Nazi Germany was defeated only when the Soviet Union turned the tide in 1943 as a result of a series of German military blunders. Japan was only defeated when the US resorted to using atomic bombs. In both world wars, the US entered the European theater of war during its closing stages. The Korean war was a stalemate. The Vietnam war was a defeat. The West didn't dare engage the Serbian army in ground warfare. Iraq and Afghanistan wars have been failures for the most part. Libya was less like a war and more like an armed robbery of a wealthy yet vulnerable nation.
I am a student of military history and I cannot think of a war or a major battle during which Western forces were able to defeat a truly powerful foe on the battlefield without serious assistance and/or without using weapons of mass destruction.
Yet, due to Western successes (albeit limited) against African, Middle Eastern and Central Asian tribesmen in recent years - as well as ubiquitous movies, novels and television programming celebrating US military prowess, most people today simply assume that Western militaries are formidable on the modern battlefield. Western military strength is more a matter perception than a thing of reality. But as long as they continue producing blockbuster films such as Zero Dark Thirty and Flags of our Fathers, the global sheeple will continue believing. It can rightfully be said that the Western world's greatest weapon is Hollywood (and the US Dollar of course). The reality is that Western militaries are not all that impressive under closer scrutiny. Therefore, don't believe the hype.
When celebration of gay marriage and mass shootings continue to make news headlines around the Western world, you know Western civilization is in decline.
The Western spirit today is totally devoid of Christianity. The very concept of the family in the Western world has been deformed beyond recognition. Western societies have become dumbed-down. Western men have become demasculinized. Western women have lost their femininity. Inundated by ultra-liberalism and multiculturalism, Western societies have lost the true meaning of culture, nationalism and a general sense of national direction. Over medicated, over entertained, overweight and undereducated, Americans have become a very strange hybrid within the human race. Washington has been hijacked by money-men, mega-corporations and self-serving special interests. Without God, family and country, Westerners have become instinct driven animals seeking self-gratification. A reflection of the cultural decline the Western world is suffering is now being seen in the condition of its armed forces. Historic rates of suicides, substance abuse and sexual abuse is the new norm in the American military. Moreover, the Pentagon has become a den of corruption and the US military is now dangerously overconfident of its abilities and overdependent on comfort and technology - and the only combat experience they have had in recent decades is against third world militaries and backward Islamic tribes.
For the Western soldier war fighting has been very comfortable (imagine, just the cost for keeping American troops cool in Iraq and Afghanistan is many times more than the national defense budgets of most nations on earth today) and, dare I say, even fun - just like a video game!
With that said, a vast majority of the combat arsenal in Western inventories today are in fact Cold War era productions. The modern but ridiculously expensive stealth aircraft such as the B-2, F-22 and the F-35 are too impractical and too flawed. Such weapons systems only serve to deplete state coffers. And the world famous aircraft carrier battle groups, the pride of the US navy for decades, are in reality only good at terrorizing third world populations into compliance.
The US and Britain have traditionally been air and naval powers. Such powers are never truly successful on land - where it matters the most. In my opinion, to be considered a truly successful military, one has to have a very powerful land force, that is only supplemented by air and naval forces. While the West surpasses (thus far) the capabilities of Russia on the open oceans and in the air, Russia will by the end of this decade have by-far the most powerful land force on earth. Russia will be the most formidable military on the Eurasian continent. But, even today, Russia could hold its own against Western air and naval forces via the utilization of highly sophisticated anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles.
At the end of the day, when it comes to raw fighting abilities, I'd pick aggressive and patriotic Slavic Russians and their very lethal, efficient and innovative military industrial complex over any other nation on earth today.
If
it somehow comes down to a shooting war between Ukrainians and
Russians, the Russian military will utterly crush their
Ukrainian opponents - with or without Western mercenary support. Let's recall that six years ago, Russia, with barely over ten thousand troops armed with terribly obsolete military hardware, was able to totally crush Georgia's Western/Israeli/Turkish armed and trained military in a matter of two or three days. Let's also recognize that in the years following Russia's astounding military success in Georgia, Moscow has been modernizing its armed forces to the tune of hundreds-of-billions of dollars. Today, Russia's armed forces have the anti-ship weaponry to sink
every opposing
warship within the entire Black Sea basin - including Western ones - within the first few days of the war's
outbreak. Today, Russia's armed forces are capable of having air and ground superiority
throughout eastern Ukraine, also within the first few days of the war.
The kind of military assets Moscow has stationed right on eastern Ukraine's borders is more than enough for Russian troops to reach the Dnieper River within a few short days. We also need to recognize that Kiev's already under-trained, under-funded, under-equipped, underfed and undermanned military units will be
severely handicapped by divisions along ethnic and ideological lines
and some units may even begin fighting each other.
At the end of the day, there is little doubt that Russia will make short work out of the Ukrainian military and there is even less doubt that the West will remain on the sidelines.
At the end of the day, there is little doubt that Russia will make short work out of the Ukrainian military and there is even less doubt that the West will remain on the sidelines.
Even if by some strange miracle Western powers decide to wage a conventional war against Russia, they will still be incapable of resisting an all-out Russian onslaught on Russia's borders. For any kind of a truly effective military response against Russian troops in Ukraine, Western forces will need to bring significant naval assets into the Black Sea. And that is their major handicap against Russia. This isn't 1853, hitting Western warships in the Black Sea would be like shooting fish in a barrel for the Russian air force, navy and land-based anti-ship missile systems. A few US warships at the bottom of the sea in the first few days of combat will make Western forces either withdraw or respond with nuclear weaponry. Since they are not ready to do either, they will not risk any form of direct combat with Russia. Moreover, in such a farfetched hypothetical scenario, any airbase in Europe that Western aircraft use to fly sorties over Ukraine will go up in flames by highly accurate ballistic missiles or air strikes.
Let's also recognize that in a scenario where Western troops are militarily engaging in operations against Russian troops, the West will also most probably be faced with having to deal with a large Russian land invasion of the Baltics and the south Caucasus.
As decadent and evil as Western powers are, Western officials are not insane enouhg to risk a world war, especially one that has the potential to go nuclear.
As I said, faced with a major defeat, Western forces will have to withdraw or respond with nuclear weaponry. Since they are not ready to do either, they will not risk direct combat with Russia - especially over something as insignificant for the Western world as Ukraine. As I said, as evil as they may be, Western officials are not crazy enough, they do not have the military capabilities necessary and they do not have the political will - or courage or the financial resources or the public support - to directly engage Russia in any form of military combat, especially to protect a bunch of worthless wannabe Nazis in Kiev.
This realization is essentially why John Kohen Kerry wants the world to know that the US "will use 21st century tools to hold Russia accountable for 19th century behavior".
In other words, Washington will stick to its worthless sanctions against Russia... something that will in fact prove counterproductive for the Western world in the long-term, as it will force Russia and its allies to move away from the US Dollar thereby weakening the currency's global dominance.
Kessab may be an opportunity in disguise
As long as Yerevan preserves its strategic ties with Moscow and works to cultivate better Russo-Armenian relations, we Armenians will sooner-or-later see the reunification of Artsakh with Armenia - with full Russian backing. However, before we expect Russians to assist us in such a manner we as a people need to rid ourselves of our Asiatic ways, political illiteracy, Russophobia and of course Western agents. As long as Armenia flirts with the political West and continues to host an army of Western operative and organizations, Moscow will keep Armenia on a very short leash. In other words, Armenia needs to kill its complimentary politics nonsense before it kills Armenia.
The signs out of Yerevan, however, are encouraging: President Sargsyan's announcement last September, President Putin's state visit last December, Yerevan's recent recognition of Crimea's reunification with Russia, and the more recent resignation of the IMF-trained Prime Minister of Armenia are all unmistakable signs that official Yerevan is slowly but surely putting the "complimentary" nonsense to rest. Serious political observers are already recognizing Armenia's emerging new foreign policy, and Western propagandists are already lamenting. And it is also very encouraging to see an increase in Moscow's military activities in Armenia.
Recent events have proven - even to some of the most dense within Armenian society - that Armenia's rightful place is within the political, military and economic orbit of the Russian Federation. Recent events have proven beyond any doubt that the West continues to be firmly in bed with Turkish and Wahhabi Islamic interests due to the Western world's long term designs against Russia, Iran and pan-Arab nationalism. More-and-more Armenians are now recognizing the West as aggressors around the world. They should have recognized this many years ago, but better late than never.
Due to the Anglo-American-Jewish agenda for the Middle East, Syria has been turned into a bloody battlefield. The oldest Christian population in the world has suffered terribly as a result and descendents of Armenian genocide survivors are once again faced with being exiled from their homes by the very same enemy.
As expected, the big talking ARF, which has significant assets throughout Lebanon and Syria, has once more proven to be utterly incompetent and impotent. As expected, the million strong American-Armenian Diaspora has once more proven to be worthless. The situation in Syria has once again shown us all that a penny spent on the Diaspora is a penny wasted. Speaking volumes about Armenian political illiteracy and self-destructive behavior: Other than "twitting" messages of concern, politely "informing" US officials (i.e. those behind the war crimes in question) about what is going on in Syria and making strong "statements", for the American-Armenian community is it business as usual - and come April 24, will we have the American-Armenian community's anal-warts once more bending-over with hope.
Where are the loud protests against Washington's criminal actions in Syria?
Where are the loud protests at the US embassy in Armenia? Where are the placards with biting slogans against President Barack Obama or the American empire? Where are all those vulgar protesters that were courageous enough to take to the streets against President Putin's state visit to Armenia last December? Where are all the assholes in the following picture? -
Haven't we seen a number of protests against Russia and President Putin within Armenia in recent years (including one in the name of a criminally reckless truck operator who had killed eighteen people in Russia)? We have yet to see however a single protest at one of the largest CIA branches in the world, the US embassy in Yerevan. We have seen armies of journalists and political activists in Armenia reporting about the perceived anti-Armenian policies of Russia... We even have whores trying to ban the airing of Russian television programming in Armenia... yet not a single "independent" journalist or a rights advocate or a political activist seems willing to express any form of criticism against the US or NATO.
I repeat: Not a single protest in front of the US embassy in Yerevan.
Why?
Perhaps because the US embassy is doing its best to keep Armenians in Yerevan HAPPY!!!
Yes! Armenians dancing like idiots, wrapping themselves in American flags, singing American songs and making merry - all for the US embassy's PR efforts in Armenia!
A politically aware, or a self-respecting human-being for that matter, would have refused to do a US sanctioned psy-ops like the music video above - especially in light of the fact that US embassies around the world are fronts for the CIA and they push bloody imperial agendas, including in Armenia. Before it was shut down, the US embassy in Syria laid down the very foundations of the historic carnage we have been witnessing throughout Syria during the last three years. Similar accusations can of course be made against US embassies in Serbia, Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, Egypt, Afghanistan, Libya, Ukraine... Despite the big happy face they put on it, the US embassy in Yerevan, one of the largest in the world, is in fact a monster in disguise and the nerdy/impotent looking US ambassador in Yerevan is in fact a war criminal by default.
But the power of American pop culture is such that we have Armenians dancing like monkeys for imperial officials who are currently conspiring against their homeland.
With
that said, the situation in Kessab, Syria may be a window of
opportunity if
Armenians put aside their victim mentalities, Western fetishes and material pursuits and exploit it properly.
Foremost, we must recognize that Kessab is in fact historic Armenia. The territory of Kessab is the southern reaches of the Armenian Crusader Kingdom of Cilicia. Kessab Armenians actually live on historic Armenian lands. Taking into consideration the Bashar Assad government's desperation and Armenia's closeness to Russia, Yerevan needs to draw on its assets to convince Moscow and Damascus to allow Armenians some form of semi-autonomy within the region of Kessab as well as perhaps Latakia. But first, Yerevan needs to end its counterproductive cooperation with NATO and transfer Armenian peacekeepers currently located in Kosovo and Afghanistan into Syria. Moreover, military experts from Armenia and Artsakh should also be taken to the region to help Armenians there begin organizing self-defense units. Armenians should also seek a role in the maintenance and/or protection of Russian military installations in the region.
Theoretically, we have an opportunity today to resurrect portions of historic Kilikia in the north-western corner of Syria as a Russo-Armenian protectorate. This is a possibility today that needs to be explored.
Foremost, we must recognize that Kessab is in fact historic Armenia. The territory of Kessab is the southern reaches of the Armenian Crusader Kingdom of Cilicia. Kessab Armenians actually live on historic Armenian lands. Taking into consideration the Bashar Assad government's desperation and Armenia's closeness to Russia, Yerevan needs to draw on its assets to convince Moscow and Damascus to allow Armenians some form of semi-autonomy within the region of Kessab as well as perhaps Latakia. But first, Yerevan needs to end its counterproductive cooperation with NATO and transfer Armenian peacekeepers currently located in Kosovo and Afghanistan into Syria. Moreover, military experts from Armenia and Artsakh should also be taken to the region to help Armenians there begin organizing self-defense units. Armenians should also seek a role in the maintenance and/or protection of Russian military installations in the region.
Theoretically, we have an opportunity today to resurrect portions of historic Kilikia in the north-western corner of Syria as a Russo-Armenian protectorate. This is a possibility today that needs to be explored.
To
this
effect, we need to end our wasteful and counterproductive efforts in an
anti-Armenian viper's
nest like Washington and begin thinking in this
direction. At the very least, the situation in Syria is yet another
opportunity to finally convince our sheeple that the Diaspora is a dead end (most times figuratively, and as Kessab has recently shown, sometimes
literally). All self-respecting Armenians need to think about
repatriation to the Armenian homeland.
In closing, I'd like to remind the reader once more that on the eve of the one hundredth anniversary of the First World War, the world is once again being attacked by corrosive ideological movements formulated and promoted in Western lands. This is not only Russia's fight - this is humanity's fight. Russia's fight is Armenia's fight. This is indeed a fight between good and evil, and we are on the side of good. The Russian state today is the world's last major cradle for conservatism, apostolic Christianity, classical European civilization and the last front against gay marriage, ultra-liberalism, multiculturalism, interracialism, atheism and genetically modified foods.
I continue to hope that my next blog commentary will not have to be about a European war. I continue to pray for peace - but I also continue to hope that Kremlin officials are getting their big guns ready just in case peace proves elusive. We are indeed living in historic times. The seeds sown today will bare fruit in the future. I feel privileged to have witnessed the historic reunification of Crimea to the Russian Motherland and I now look forward to witnessing the reunification of Artsakh to the Armenian homeland.
With great pleasure I now present to you Zoravar's exclusive report.
Arevordi
April, 2014
***
The
East-West Balance and the Strategic Importance of Crimea
Russian Army in Crimea
On 9
August 1999, Vladimir Putin was appointed acting Prime Minister of the
Government of the Russian Federation by President Yeltsin who also announced
that he wanted to see Putin as his successor. Less than 3 weeks later - on the
26th of August 1999 - the Second Chechen War was launched by the
Russian Army. That military campaign was the beginning of a new chapter in the
book of Contemporary Military History of the World.
But
first, let me get back to a little bit of History. With the dissolution of the
Soviet Union 1991, Russia was brought to its knees. During the decade following
that historic “Cold War victory” of the West over Communism, Russia experienced
a plethora of problems ranging from financial to political and from social to
demographic. The country’s economy was in a mess, mafia and oligarchs were
flourishing, corruption was everywhere, poverty and unemployment were on the
rise, patriotism and morale were at their lowest. What else can I mention?
Tanks had fired on the parliament building in Moscow and Chechnya was given
de-facto independence right after the first Chechen War. How much worse could
it get for Russia? Well, the Western advisors with IMF loans were working on it
…while Western leaders were unleashing their armies to smash the remaining of
Russia’s allies, friends and clients like Serbia and Iraq.
Kamov Ka-52 gunship is reported to have been deployed to Crimea at the beginning of April
I
remember with bitterness the days when the demoralized soldiers of the Russian
army could not defeat armed Chechen gangs during the First Chechen War that lasted from late 1994 to the middle of 1996. Fresh
out of the nasty Afghan conflict and facing the chaotic aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Army was using the wrong tactics
and the wrong equipment to fight an unpopular war the Russian nation was not prepared for.
Fast
forward to the Second Chechen War. The reader might wonder about the reason I
am attaching so much importance to this particular conflict. Well, it is the
way this war started that is most significant. Allow me to explain: The Second
Chechen War was initiated in response to the invasion of
the Dagestan region of the Russian Federation by the Chechen gangs… Just like the August, 2008
Five-Day War which was initiated in response to Georgia’s
invasion of South Ossetia... and just like the recent Crimea intervention which
also was initiated in response to the violent takeover of
administration in Kiev and repression of Russian speakers in Ukraine.
By now, the leaders of the Western powers should understand that if given a reason, a pretext or a justification, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will not blink and he will seize and use the opportunity to its fullest.
By now, the leaders of the Western powers should understand that if given a reason, a pretext or a justification, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will not blink and he will seize and use the opportunity to its fullest.
Sukhoi Su-35 air superiority fighter has recently entered service in the Far-East Military district
Appearances
and tactics in the above conflicts are also noteworthy. During the Second Chechen War, Russian soldiers looked not much different from our own Armenian
freedom fighters during the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict: Ragtag, mismatched uniforms and
even personal sport shoes instead of army boots. The Russian progress on the ground
was slow because of the cautious tactics used to minimize losses to Russian troops. During the
August, 2008 Georgia war, the Russians looked only slightly better. Soldiers within
the same military units could be seen wearing different uniforms, but the tactics were
a whole new ball game: Daring dashes through Georgian lines, audacious beach
landings and pinpoint air and missile strikes on key installations caused the collapse of all
Georgian resistance in a matter of days. And, finally, we have the well-oiled and
thoroughly rehearsed war machine that commandeered the Crimean peninsula and reversed the whole
military situation essentially overnight - with highly disciplined soldiers with modern arms and great looking uniforms - not having
to fire a single shot in anger.
Yes,
the world is no longer unipolar. There are now two super-powers once again and the previously much
discussed - but dormant for two decades - subject of Military
Balance is back in full fashion. This blog is not a military one, so I will avoid
boring the readers with a detailed military analysis and go straight to the
conclusions:
Nuclear Conflict
The
Balance of Terror has always been intact and the Mutual Assured Destruction
(MAD) concept was never in doubt. Even during Russia’s worst years, when the
Army, its equipment and the military industry were rapidly decaying, Yeltsin's administration
managed to still keep the Nuclear Strategic Forces credible. More recently, the
Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces were the first branch of the Armed Forces that
went (and are still going through) modernization. During the last few years the
road mobile TOPOL Intercontinental Ballistic missiles were supplemented by more
modern TOPOL-M versions which in turn are being replaced by the newer YARS. New
rail-mobile missiles and super-heavy class silo based missiles are being
developed. The construction of 8 BOREI class submarines that can each carry 16
newly introduced BULAVA intercontinental missiles was initiated. 2 of the boats
are already in service, the rest are in construction and will replace the older
Soviet era DELTA class subs. The newer ballistic missiles, both land and sea
launched, have features that make them harder to intercept by US anti-missile
systems.
While Russia was modernizing its nuclear deterrent, the USA was doing nothing… well, they were fighting the so-called “War on Terror”!
The USA’s nuclear deterrent is made up of Cold-War era ballistic missiles. Their systems date back to the eighties and even before! Their OHIO class nuclear subs that they rely so much on have an average age of 25 years! This old US arsenal is increasingly vulnerable to the soon to materialize Russian missile defense system which will include the S-500 air and space defense complex. Sooner or later, the Obama administration or the next president of the USA will have to commit huge finances to replace and modernize their Strategic Forces of America. And considering the pathway of military contracts in that country with their inexplicable delays and massive cost overruns due to corruption and politics, it is going to cost the USA hundreds of billions (if not trillions) to revamp that branch of their Armed Forces. It will be a quite a challenge for them considering that not a single new Ballistic missile was designed in the USA for decades and that most of the expertise has been lost.
Mobile TOPOL Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (10,000 km range)
While Russia was modernizing its nuclear deterrent, the USA was doing nothing… well, they were fighting the so-called “War on Terror”!
The USA’s nuclear deterrent is made up of Cold-War era ballistic missiles. Their systems date back to the eighties and even before! Their OHIO class nuclear subs that they rely so much on have an average age of 25 years! This old US arsenal is increasingly vulnerable to the soon to materialize Russian missile defense system which will include the S-500 air and space defense complex. Sooner or later, the Obama administration or the next president of the USA will have to commit huge finances to replace and modernize their Strategic Forces of America. And considering the pathway of military contracts in that country with their inexplicable delays and massive cost overruns due to corruption and politics, it is going to cost the USA hundreds of billions (if not trillions) to revamp that branch of their Armed Forces. It will be a quite a challenge for them considering that not a single new Ballistic missile was designed in the USA for decades and that most of the expertise has been lost.
Conventional Conflict
Close to Russia’s Borders
A
conventional attack on Russia is unthinkable as it will quickly escalade into a
nuclear exchange. Having said that, there is always the possibility of having a
limited war in a country neighboring Russia. One can think of Ukraine or
Georgia as being good example where the USA or NATO can dispatch forces to
confront Russia in a conventional shootout without resorting to nuclear
arsenals. Back in 1999, Yeltsin could not defend Serbia properly. All he could
do was to send a contingent of troops to capture the Pristina airport, and that
was after the bombing of Serbia by NATO warplanes. That was at a
time when Russian was weak. In 2008 (Georgia) and in 2014 (Crimea), the roles
were reversed and it was the West that was powerless. In short, a
rejuvenated Russia cannot be beaten at or near its borders for two main
reasons:
Tactical and logistics: Proximity to Russia means easier moving of troops and equipment , quicker reactions to changes on the battlefield, shorter lines of communication, better knowledge of the area and in many cases having friendly local populations on the ground etc. etc. Consider the logistical nightmares and costs the USA is/was going through when resupplying their troops in Afghanistan for example. Everything from tanks to thanksgiving turkey dinners has to be airlifted! At or near its borders, Russia enjoys the advantage of having troops nearby or even already on the ground. NATO will have to go through great lengths to get sufficient units there. By the time they get there, it will be too late!Commitment: It is a matter of survival. A conflict at or near Russia’s borders will be far more important for the Russians than to their opponents. The Russian government, population and soldiers will be ready to go to greater lengths and sacrifice more just to win it. Russia’s history is proof of that point. The level of commitment of NATO and their population is just not up to that level. The stakes will just be not that high for them.
Conventional Conflict Far
from Russia’s Borders
To
be able to conduct a successful military operation far from one’s homeland, a
strategic airlift capability and more importantly a strong Navy are a must.
Having large, well equipped and trained armies is meaningless if you can’t get
them where they are needed. For example, Britain built a strong navy and then
became an empire, not vice-versa.
New Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber have been based in the Voronezh (facing West) and southern areas (facing Turkey)
Aircraft
carriers are great tools to bully other countries out of their natural
resources. Since the Second World War, NATO in general and the USA in
particular have successfully used them in places ranging from Grenada to Libya and
from the Falklands to Iraq. NATO can deploy more than a dozen such carriers
while Russia has just one. Another important asset for overseas operations is
amphibious landing ships that can carry large amounts of troops, combat
vehicles and supplies anywhere in the world. It is the US Marines that are
dominant in that field. They have at their disposal a large fleet of ships that
can carry thousands of Marines each. Russia has fewer and smaller ships that
can each carry no more than a few hundred soldiers. In short, in a hypothetical
war where the US is for example invading a distant ally of Russia (like
Venezuela), there is little that the Kremlin will be able to do.
Fifth Generation Sukhoi PAK-FA stealth fighter is expected to enter service during 2016
The
two Mistral class large amphibious assault ships that are currently built in
France under a special deal made between France and Russia are to remedy (at
least partly) for Russia’s deficiency in conducting large scale and long range
military operations anywhere on the planet. The main role of Russia’s (and the
Soviet Union’s) Navy is and traditionally has always been to defend the country
from sea attacks. It is the submarines that are the main offensive components
of the Russian Navy. That elite component of the Navy is the one that can fight
Russia’s foes on the oceans.
Russia’s Rearmament
Program
The
degradation of the huge military-industrial complex of the USSR started with
Gorbachev’s Perestroika initiative. Weapon making factories were told to look
also into civilian production. This degradation process was of course greatly
accelerated with the economic and political collapse of that country. Russia
inherited the lion’s share of the factories, but there were very few orders
from the Defense Ministry for much of the 1990s. Many defense related
enterprises had to shut down, specialists and skilled workers were laid-off.
The surviving companies relied on whatever domestic and export orders they were
getting plus any civilian related work they could do.
Rare photo of the Cruise missile version of the ISKANDER. The ballistic missile version is more commonly seen
With
the improvement of Russia’s economy during the 20th century, the
Military budget was increased every year. Accordingly, new weapons development
and acquisition was initiated. It was a very slow process not because of
finances, but because factories lacked skilled workers or modern machinery. The
rearmament process received a significant boost right after the 2008 war with
Georgia. Under Putin’s administration, the State Defense Order increased many
fold in size. The current grandiose plan is to have 70% of the armed forces
reequipped with modern weaponry by 2020. The re-equipment of some branches of
the forces is well underway. As mentioned earlier in this article, the
Strategic forces were given priority. Currently, bases and barracks are being
renovated and new equipment including fighter jets, attack helicopters,
frigates, submarines, air defense systems and other “shiny toys” are being
inducted into the Armed Forces at an increasingly faster rate. Even the
uniforms and boots are new. The coming few years will reveal entirely new tank
and armored vehicle designs, artillery, guided and unguided rocket systems etc.
etc.
The New Mil- Mi-28 gunship is now the backbone of attack helicopter units in the South and Caucasus areas
What
are the US and EU doing against all that. Year after year, we have been seeing
the military budgets of EU nations being cut down in size. Their armies are now
a shadow of what they used to be. For example the once mighty Royal Navy is now
smaller than the Indian Navy…Oh the irony! At $600 Billion a year, the US
military budget remains by far the largest in the world. But, in reality, that
huge sum is not reflected on what we see on the ground. The US Navy is now
about half the size it was during the Cold War. Most of the Pentagon’s assets
(tanks, fighter jets, missiles etc.) are getting long in the tooth and require
a massive replacement program that will be exorbitant and unaffordable. What
happened? It all screams corruption and mismanagement. True, but let’s also
blame the Bush and Obama administrations for investing so much in unmanned
drones, mine resistant vehicle and other systems to fight the “Global War on
Terror” that they forgot to properly look after the traditional main components
of their national defense: The Army, Navy and Air Force.
Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bomber
Starting
from next year, I would like to see the faces of the US Generals and Admirals
on the traditional 9th of May victory day parades when the next
generation of Russian weaponry like the ARMATA tank, KURGANETS fighting
vehicle, BOOMERANG armored personnel carrier, TYPHOON armored truck, VOLK
vehicle for the airborne, KOALITSYA artillery, TORNADO-S multiple rocket
system, S-500 air-space defense system and many other new systems will be
showing up on Moscow’s Red Square.
The Tactical and
Strategic Significance of Crimea
Slightly
smaller than the Republic of Armenia, the Crimean peninsula is connected to the
mainland only by the narrow Perekop isthmus. One doesn’t need to have a
military background to immediately realize the immense strategic importance of
that piece of real estate. Surrounded by water and located almost centrally in
the Black Sea, it is an easily defendable fortress with power-projection
potential to the entire Black Sea and surrounding lands. The Crimean peninsula
is sort of an unsinkable gigantic aircraft carrier. I fully expect the Kremlin
to transform it into a mighty fortress that will alter the military balance and
the Geopolitics of the entire region. Backed by online videos, news reports
already indicate the deployment of various BASTION and BAL anti-ship missile
systems as well as PANTSIR-S air defense complexes. I foresee the Russians
moving in S-400 and ISKANDER missiles as well. Search, early warning radar and
other surveillance means will find a good home there too.
Modernized Ilyushin/Beriev
A-50 Early warning (AWACS) plane
From
a purely defensive point of view: The Crimea provides protection (flank cover) to Southern
parts of Russia including the Caucasus. Being on the south side of Ukraine, it
sandwiches that nation between itself and Belarus, making another Operation
Barbarossa style invasion of the Russian Motherland much more risky because the
attacking forces will be exposed to simultaneous flank attacks from North and
South. With the potent weapon systems deployed there, the Black Sea can be
turned into a no-fly and no-sail zone for any opponent in a future conflict
with Russia. The maps below indicate the coverage of some defensive systems
when (hypothetically) deployed in the vicinity of Sevastopol.
Note that the S-400 air defense system uses a number of surface to air missiles types, the longest ranged one is the 40N6 with 400km zone of destruction. For the BASTION anti-ship missile, I used the 300 km maximum range of the export version. The Russian version is said to go 500 km and beyond.
Note that the S-400 air defense system uses a number of surface to air missiles types, the longest ranged one is the 40N6 with 400km zone of destruction. For the BASTION anti-ship missile, I used the 300 km maximum range of the export version. The Russian version is said to go 500 km and beyond.
From
an offensive and/or power projection point of view: The main base of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is the well
sheltered port of Sevastopol which is also equipped with all the means to
service, maintain and repair a large fleet. That port supports the
Mediterranean deployed squadron of ships whose current main role is to
replenish the Syrian Army. Thus far, the warships were sailing from Sevastopol,
but were forced to stop in and pick up the Syria-destined supplies from the
smaller Novorossisk Naval Base in Russia itself. From now on, everything can be
done more efficiently and quickly directly from Sevastopol.
Dubbed "Aircraft Carrier Killer", the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet is the Sevastopol (Crimea) based cruiser MOSKVA
There is no doubt in my mind that Russia will deploy ISKANDER complexes with both ballistic and winged (cruise) types of missiles in Crimea. The INF treaty between Russia and the USA currently limits the maximum range of these land-based systems to 500 km. Depending on how the East-West relations develop in the coming months, Russia may unilaterally decide to withdraw from the above disadvantageous treaty that Mikhael Gorbachev signed at that time. Accordingly, the self-imposed limits on the missiles will be removed. The map below indicates the current coverage of the ISKANDER system when launched from the Sevastopol area. The same map also shows the nominal radius of action of a fully loaded SUKHOI Su-30SM fighter bomber. Of course, that radius can be expended with in-flight refueling or by using a smaller bomb-load. This type of aircraft is the most likely candidate to reinforce Crimean defenses. Another candidate can be the heavier Su-34 dedicated attack fighter which can fly 50% further… Reports are emerging Tu-22M BACKFIRE medium bombers may be brought back to the Crimea as well. These bombers have been absent from the area since the Cold War ended.
Even
beyond: The Strategic bombers of
the Russian Air Force (Tu-95 BEAR and Tu-160 BLACKJACK) can take off from their
airbases deep in Russia, fly to the Crimean airspace and fire their loads of
3000 km range Kh-555 and 5000 km range Kh-101 and 102 cruise missiles from the
safety of the defenses of the peninsula. Of course they could have done that
from South Russia, but the Crimean territory gives them that extra few hundred
kilometers coverage.
Recently introduced, new generation BOREI class Nuclear Submarine
Before the recent events in Ukraine, Russia’s rearmament plans encompassed the modernization of the elderly Black Sea Fleet. Six brand new frigates and six new submarines were ordered a few years ago and are in various stages of construction. The first submarine will enter service late this year to supplement the single unit that is in service in the Black Sea. The first frigate will come on board soon after. These fresh and modern vessels carry ONYX anti-ship missiles as well as land attack KLUB missiles. Being ship deployed, these cruise missiles are not limited by the above mentioned INF treaty. The domestic versions of the KLUB missile are estimated to have ranges of up to 2000 km.
I
believe that what I explained above is sufficient for the reader to understand
the importance of the Crimean peninsula for Russia in military terms and that
there is no need to elaborate the military details any further.
Geopolitical Impact
From
the very first days of this blog, its owner has repeatedly stressed the
importance of seeing and accepting the fact that Russia has risen and has
become the alpha and omega of the Caucasus. With recent events
in Ukraine and the return of Crimea to the Russian Motherland, I am certain he
will gladly upgrade that status to: “Russia is now the alpha and the omega
of the entire Black Sea region”.
The
Kremlin skilfully exploited the EuroMaidan freak show and firmly placed Russia
in the winner’s seat. Irrespective of how the situation develops - whether things
escalate or de-escalate in Ukraine in the future - Russia will come out on top.
The various sanctions that the West is imposing on Russia are just a reflection
of their impotence in the situation that they created themselves. The Kremlin’s
Grossmeisters proved to be of a far superior caliber than the west’s
shortsighted simpletons represented by the likes of John McCain and Victoria
Neuland.
The ROPUCHA class landing ships are common in the "Syria Express" convoys delivering arms and supplies to the Syrian
Army
With the Crimean peninsula firmly secured, the already increasing influence of a rising Russia is going to get a healthy boost. I can vision the already growing Russian influence in the Eastern Mediterranean (Syria and Egypt) and would love to see positive developments for countries that were the victims of the West’s policies in Southern Europe, the Balkans and the Adriatic (Greece, Macedonia, etc.). I can’t stop thinking of the coerced or forcefully subjugated nation like Bulgaria and Serbia…
Crimea and Armenia
In
the previous Ukraine related articles in this blog, Arevordi has repeatedly
explained and stressed the fact that a victory for Russia is a victory for
Armenia. For the last part of this article, I feel compelled to demonstrate
the relevance of that statement in military terms.
Our
arch enemies are Turks and Azeris. These constitute a mortal danger to
the very existence of Armenia as a nation-state. With the political, moral and
strategic defeat of the Anglo-American agenda in Ukraine and the re-integration
of Crimea within the Russian Federation, one of the main losers ends up being
Turkey. No, I am not talking about the sociopolitical disappointments of Crimean Tatars, I
am talking from a military-strategic point of view.
The MiG-35 is a heavily modified and modernized version of the MiG-29
With the help of Map-3 illustrated above, I have already demonstrated the vulnerability of Turkey to air and missile strikes from Crimea. Now let us combine that threat to the expected deployment of ISKANDER systems in Armenia by Russia’s 102nd Army base as well as by Armenia’s own missile forces (replacing or supplementing the existing SCUD missiles). The map below indicates the coverage of ISKANDER missiles in their current treaty limited (maximum 500 km) range deployed in Sevastopol (Crimea) and Gyumri (Armenia). Note that the S-300 PMU2 air defense systems deployed near Baku and the Chinese made air defense systems recently ordered by Turkey have little chance of stopping the current and future variants of the ISKANDER missiles which were developed with air defense penetration features.
To
conclude, I would like to express my gratitude to foul-mouthed Victory Neuland
and cohorts for making the dream-come-true re-integration of Crimea into the
Russian Federation possible, thus making an immense contribution to the
establishment of Pax Russicana, the kind of peace and security that this
very sensitive area of the planet truly deserves and desperately needs.
Zoravar
***
David Ignatius: Russian Military Delivers a Striking Lesson in Crimea
From the
photographs we’ve seen of the Russian special operations, or Spetsnaz,
troops that intervened in Crimea, several things are obvious: They are
secretive, moving without insignia and often covering their faces;
they’re disciplined and they’re decisive. The diplomatic response to the Russian intervention is
continuing. But Pentagon officials are beginning to assess the military
“lessons learned.” The bottom line is that Russia’s move into Crimea was
a study in the speedy deployment of special operations forces to
achieve a limited objective.
“What has been most striking to me so far has been the apparent
levels of discipline, training and cooperation among the Russian
forces,” noted Paul Saunders, executive director of the Center for the
National Interest, in an interview this week with the military blog War on the Rocks. The
Russians deployed quickly in the hours surrounding reports of their
initial movement on Feb. 26. Two days later, when President Obama warned
that there would be “costs” for invading Crimea, the Russian forces
were already in place and the intervention was nearly a fait accompli.
The
Russians are thought to have had roughly 15,000 troops in Crimea when
the crisis began, and quickly added about another 5,000, mostly special
operations troops. The Russians are allowed up to 25,000 military
personnel in Crimea under their 30-year lease of the Black Sea naval
base at Sevastopol. Military analysts note some interesting
characteristics of the Russian deployment: President Vladimir Putin, a
former KGB lieutenant colonel, chose something closer to a paramilitary
“covert action” than a normal military attack. Because the troops didn’t
have Russian insignia, there was a thin veil of deniability, which the
Russians exploited.
At a news conference March 4, Putin denied that Russian troops had invaded, despite photographic evidence to the contrary. “You can go to a store and buy a uniform,” insisted Putin. This “deniability” was
maintained by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said
March 5 it was “complete nonsense” that Russian troops had invaded Crimea and that
he had “no idea” how Russian military vehicles had gotten there.
These bland denials of reality were useful in several ways: They maintained a fig leaf of legitimacy for an illegal intervention; they allowed Russia a chance (not yet taken) to de-escalate an operation that hadn’t officially been acknowledged; and they distanced Putin in case things went badly and Ukrainians were killed.
Putin also showed a notable willingness to take risks. So far, there has been almost no bloodshed between Russians and Ukrainians,
but Putin couldn’t have known this when he began. That’s why the
precision and discipline of Russian forces were crucial. Their
professionalism reduced the risk of an incident that could have spiraled
out of control. Finally, Putin prepared a rationale for his intervention — along with the attendant propaganda.
He insisted he was acting to protect Russian citizens and Russian
speakers in Crimea. His troops were welcomed by a generally supportive
Crimean population, and his action was lauded back home. This model
suggests that Putin might be prepared to move, similarly, to protect
Russians in neighboring countries, such as eastern Ukraine or the Transnistria region of Moldova.
Analysts
think Putin would be less likely to move against neighboring states,
such as Lithuania and Latvia, that have significant Russian-speaking
populations but that are NATO members. Such operations would require far
more force — and would test NATO’s “Article 5” commitment to U.S.-led
mutual defense, a risk that is probably greater than Putin is willing to
tolerate. The well-organized Crimea operation also suggests
improvement in the quality and training of the Russian military. Their
troops had operated with far less precision a decade ago in Chechnya and in the
2008 invasion of Georgia. A botched attempt to free 850 hostages in a Moscow theater in 2002 resulted in the deaths of 130 of the captives.
Russia evidently has been getting results for increased spending on its military: The 2012 edition of an annual survey by the
International Institute for Strategic Studies
estimated that Russia would spend 3.78 percent of its GDP on defense in
2013, by far the highest amount in more than a decade. Aging or
incompetent Russian officers have been purged as part of a modernization
campaign. This Russian army, in short, is not the one that
proved so feeble in Afghanistan. It is well-trained and stealthy and
effectively uses a “small footprint.” And Putin clearly wasn’t deterred
by NATO military moves that signaled a commitment to protect member
states — but didn’t convey a willingness to check Russian black
operations in a friendly, neighboring region.
Janes: The increasing sophistication of Russia's military resurgence
Late on 25 March, the last Ukrainian warship blockaded in its port on Crimea's west coast surrendered to Russian forces, completing just over three weeks of operations to wrest the strategic peninsula from Kiev's control.
This whirlwind campaign seems to herald a new sophistication in how
Russian commanders conduct military operations. The most distinctive
feature of the Russian operation was its emphasis on economy of effort.
Unlike previous interventions in Afghanistan in the Soviet era, or
Chechnya and Georgia more recently, where Russian commanders relied on
mass employment of tanks and artillery, the Crimea intervention featured
fewer than 10,000 assault troops lined up against 16,000 Ukrainian
military personnel. The heaviest fighting vehicle employed by the
Russians against the Ukrainians was the wheeled BTR-80 armoured
personnel carrier (APC).
Once Russian troops had moved to blockade Ukrainian military
personnel in their bases, psychological warfare, internet/media
propaganda, intimidation, and bribery were their main weapons to
undermine their opponents' will to resist, rather than overwhelming
firepower. Russian troops also displayed considerably discipline and
patience during this phase. In addition, they appeared well equipped,
boasting new personnel equipment, body armour, and light wheeled
armoured vehicles.
This novel approach was necessitated by Russian President Vladimir
Putin's need for the operation to be launched within a tight timeframe
after the fall of the pro-Moscow regime in Kiev on 27 February.
Although the operation may have been planned for many months, there
was insufficient time to mobilise a larger force. Russian commanders had
to make do with naval infantry from the Black Sea Fleet already based
in Crimea, backed up by a couple of battalions of airborne troops and
Spetsnaz commandos flown onto the peninsula. Economy of force also
fitted the campaign's political narrative: that this was a mission to
protect Crimea's Russian-speaking population rather than an invasion.
In just over three weeks, the will of the Ukrainian forces in Crimea
was broken and all 190 of their bases had surrendered with barely a shot
being fired by their defenders. However, even if some Ukrainian heavy
armour was present in Crimea, many of the Ukrainian forces were naval
and administrative personnel rather than combat troops. Organised
military resistance was never a serious prospect. Instead of achieving a
simple military triumph on the battlefield, the Russian armed forces
facilitated a political and psychological victory.
What now?
In the wake of his success, there has been intense speculation about
President Putin's future intentions. In his 18 March victory speech
after the fall of Crimea, he laid out his underlying worldview. Russia's
loss of power and status at the end of the Cold War in 1989 was a
deliberate, generational humiliation at the hands of the West - and a
reason for hatred and apprehension.
For the Russian president, Ukraine's strategic importance to Russia
is the key issue. In Putin's view, Ukraine is the pivotal connector
between East and West. Control of Ukraine means control of the Black Sea
and unobstructed access to potentially sympathetic populations in
central Europe and the Balkans - in nations such as Bulgaria, Slovakia,
and Serbia - and the exercise of time honoured 'pan-slavism' with a view
to greater integration. These strategic perspectives appear to have
been largely lost to Western leaders.
Ukraine is sufficiently important that in 2004, the last time a split
from Russian control seemed likely, Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-Western
opposition and Orange Revolution leader and later president, was nearly
fatally poisoned and permanently disfigured by the use of dioxin. In any
case, the Kremlin sees a 'colour revolution', heralding liberal
democracy amongst Slavonic people, as threatening and utterly
unacceptable.
A significant effect of the Crimea campaign has been to further test
NATO and EU resolve. Russian leaders tend to think in larger pictures
than their Western counterparts. 'Atlanticists' are likely to consider
individual nations or small groups of countries, threats to them, and
their specific importance, without interconnecting them.
Russian analysts evaluate - and have whole branches of study devoted
to - the Black Sea-Baltic region as a strategic territory and subject in
itself. Russia has generally controlled these areas between Russia
proper and foreign countries, referred to in a wider context as the
'near abroad'.
Speculation has shifted to Moldova - and its adjacent, unrecognised
Russian-speaking enclave of Transnistria or the Pridnestrovian Moldavian
Republic (PMR) - as the next test of Western resolve in the face of
possible intervention by Putin. A potential justification or pretext for
a Russian incursion here is the small self-declared republic's wish to
become part of Russia and the disputed presence of a battalion of 400
Russian peace-keeping troops.
On 25 March, Russia announced the start of territorial defence exercises in Transnistria, which Moldovan sources described to IHS Jane's on the same day as of concern even if anticipated. Although part of NATO and the EU, the Baltic States are the northern
end of the Black Sea-Baltic space and are vulnerable. The disapproving
tone of some Russian rhetoric suggests they exist under sufferance.
From the Russian Air Assault Division base at Pskov near the
Latvian-Estonian border, forces could - from a near standing start - cut
off Estonia from the rest of the EU in less than 40 minutes, according
to a former Russian air assault division commander.
The same could be done along the 80 km Polish-Lithuanian border,
which runs between Belarus and the Russian Baltic enclave of
Kaliningrad. In both cases, one or all the Baltic States could be
enclosed, controlled, and separated from the rest of Europe. In the
Baltic, eastern Ukraine, and Moldova-Transnistria Russian military units
are in place, available for further exploitation if President Putin so
desires.
Germany Helped Prep Russia for
War, U.S. Sources Say
Over the past few years, NATO countries have helped Russia revolutionize
its armed forces. Now questions are arising about a German defense
contractor that trained the Russian military.
The world was shocked when Russian special operations forces invaded
Crimea with advanced technology, drastically improved operations, and
with so much operational security that even agencies in the U.S.
intelligence community didn’t see it coming.
In Washington, government and congressional leaders are wondering how
the Russian special operations forces got so good, so fast, without
anyone noticing. Some are wondering how much help Russia had from the
West.
In 2011, for example, the German defense contractor Rheinmetall signed a $140 million contract
to build a combat simulation training center in Mulino, in southwest
Russia, that would train 30,000 Russian combat troops per year. While
the facility wasn't officially scheduled to be completed until later
this year, U.S. officials believe that Germany has been training Russian
forces for years.
Rheinmetall defended the project even after the invasion of Crimea, up until the German government finally shut it down late last month. But many tracking the issue within the U.S. government were not happy with Germany's handling of the Russian contract, and worry that some of the training may have gone to the kind of special operations forces now operating in and around Ukraine.
“It’s unfortunate that German companies were directly supporting and training Russia’s military even during the attacks against Ukraine,” one senior Senate aide told The Daily Beast. “The U.S. government should call on our NATO allies to suspend all military connections with Russia at this point, until the Russians leave Ukraine, including Crimea.”
According to the Congressional Research Service, Rheinmetall’s partner in the deal was the Russian state-owned Oboronservis (“Defense Service”) firm. The training center, modeled after one used by the German Bundeswehr, was to be “the most advanced system of its kind worldwide.” Reinmetall saw the contract as a precursor to several more projects “in light of the plans to modernize the equipment of the Russian armed forces.”
U.S. officials, now looking back, are privately expressing anger and frustration about the German work with the Russian military. While definitive proof is hard to come by, these officials look at the radical upgrade of Moscow’s forces–especially its special operations forces–experienced since they last saw major action in 2008's invasion of Georgia. The U.S. officials believe that some of the German training over the last few years was given to the GRU Spetsnaz, the special operations forces that moved unmarked into Crimea and who can now be found stirring up trouble in eastern Ukraine.
“People are pissed,” one U.S. intelligence official told The Daily Beast. “The chatter inside the Pentagon is that the training they were providing was going to Spetznaz.”
Rheinmetall did not respond to a request for comment. Russia maintains close economic ties with many NATO states–especially Germany. By some estimates, the country exported nearly $50 billion in goods to Russia in 2013. Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of German jobs depend on Russian trade.
The armed forces of NATO members have also been working with their counterparts in the Russian military, on and off, for years. Russia has held joint military exercises with both Germany and the U.S., for example. America has bought Russian helicopters to use in Afghanistan. And Moscow allows NATO equipment to pass through Russian territory as the gear comes into and out of the war zone.
To the Congressional Research Service, “Rheinmetall’s construction of
an army training center could be viewed in the context of the broader
bilateral defense cooperation between Germany and Russia,” the service
writes in its report. “The German… government’s approval of the
contract to construct a training center also appears to be in line with
long-standing German policy to promote military training and joint
exercises with partner countries.”
But some on Capitol Hill see the Rheimetall contract as only one example of the folly of several NATO countries that rushed to sign lucrative defense contracts with Russia after President Obama declared a new “reset” policy with the Russian Federation. Lawmakers have tried to halt the French sale of the Mistral, an amphibious warship, to the Russian Navy. Some are also unhappy about the Italian sale of Lynx armored personnel carriers to Russia.
A Senate aide said that one of Rheinmetall’s contributions was to help the Russian army and GRU Spetznaz upgrade their gear. Reports show that the Russian military units both inside Ukraine and amassed on its eastern border are sporting brand new communications equipment, body armor, personal weapons, and ammunition. Taken together, it gives them a huge tactical advantage over the beleaguered Ukrainian armed forces.
Top defense officials are now acknowledging that Russia’s military has been revolutionized in recent years. This month, Vice Admiral Frank Pandolfe, the director for strategic plans and policy for the military’s joint chiefs of staff, told Congress in open testimony that in recent years Russia has created regional commands that “coordinate and synchronize planning, joint service integration, force movement, intelligence support, and the tactical employment of units” in what he deemed “snap exercises,” or military training missions that can be ordered at a moment’s notice.
In the testimony, Pandolfe also said Russia has placed greater emphasis on the use of Special Operations Forces as well as information and cyber warfare. Experts said that Russian military doctrine was dramatically updated in the past few years and clearly set out Russia’s plans for modernization and a focus on highly trained rapid reaction special forces. But in the West, the papers were not well read, much less understood.
The Russians also changed their doctrine to reflect that they viewed the threat as not coming from a conventional war, but from the need to protect Russian populations in unstable states facing what they deemed to be Western aggression.
“This wasn’t just about implementing lessons learned from [the 2008 invasion of] Georgia, it was about giving them a basis for a different kind of operations,” said Fiona Hill, a former top intelligence official on Russia, now with the Brookings Institution. “We should have been paying more attention to this. There have been these signals for a long time, but we have been misreading them.”
Western and NATO countries believed they could tie Russia into
greater military cooperation through engagement, but now have realized
that Russian was probably never really interested in that. The Russian
military is now organized to respond to conflicts caused by such things
as popular revolutions, political crises, and domestic insurgencies.
“Everyone was looking for a way to cooperate with the Russian military and rushed to find ways to do it, including us,” said Hill. “Whatever we do now, we have to be mindful that the Russians have been preparing for something else.”
Andranik Migranyan, a past member of Russia’s Presidential Council and currently an adviser to the Vladimir Putin administration, told reporters that ever since the Georgia war, Russia has been spending to radically upgrade its military, but that the West has only itself to blame for not following along.
“We have new armament, new army, new training,” he said. “It’s very strange you are not following what’s happening.”
Russia Displays a New Military Prowess in Ukraine’s East
Secretary of State John Kerry has accused Russia of behaving in a “19th-century fashion” because of its annexation of Crimea. But Western experts who have followed the success of Russian forces in carrying out President Vladimir V. Putin’s policy in Crimea and eastern Ukraine have come to a different conclusion about Russian military strategy. They see a military disparaged for its decline since the fall of the Soviet Union skillfully employing 21st-century tactics that combine cyberwarfare, an energetic information campaign and the use of highly trained special operation troops to seize the initiative from the West.
“It
is a significant shift in how Russian ground forces approach a
problem,” said James G. Stavridis, the retired admiral and former NATO
commander. “They have played their hand of cards with finesse.”
The abilities the Russian military has displayed are not only important to the high-stakes drama in Ukraine, they also have implications for the security of Moldova, Georgia, Central Asian nations and even the Central Europe nations that are members of NATO. The dexterity with which the Russians have operated in Ukraine is a far cry from the bludgeoning artillery, airstrikes and surface-to-surface missiles used to retake Grozny, the Chechen capital, from Chechen separatists in 2000. In that conflict, the notion of avoiding collateral damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure appeared to be alien.
The abilities the Russian military has displayed are not only important to the high-stakes drama in Ukraine, they also have implications for the security of Moldova, Georgia, Central Asian nations and even the Central Europe nations that are members of NATO. The dexterity with which the Russians have operated in Ukraine is a far cry from the bludgeoning artillery, airstrikes and surface-to-surface missiles used to retake Grozny, the Chechen capital, from Chechen separatists in 2000. In that conflict, the notion of avoiding collateral damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure appeared to be alien.
Since then Russia has sought to develop more effective ways of projecting power in the “near abroad,” the non-Russian nations that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has tried to upgrade its military, giving priority to its special forces, airborne and naval infantry — “rapid reaction” abilities that were “road tested” in Crimea, according to Roger McDermott, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. The speedy success that Russia had in Crimea does not mean that the overall quality of the Russian Army, made up mainly of conscripts and no match for the high-tech American military, has been transformed.
“The operation reveals very little about the current condition of the Russian armed forces,” said Mr. McDermott. “Its real strength lay in covert action combined with sound intelligence concerning the weakness of the Kiev government and their will to respond militarily.”
Still, Russia’s operations in Ukraine have been a swift meshing of hard and soft power. The Obama administration, which once held out hope that Mr. Putin would seek an “off ramp” from the pursuit of Crimea, has repeatedly been forced to play catch-up after the Kremlin changed what was happening on the ground. “It is much more sophisticated, and it reflects the evolution of the Russian military and of Russian training and thinking about operations and strategy over the years,” said Stephen J. Blank, a former expert on the Russian military at the United States Army War College who is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council.
For its intervention in Crimea, the Russians used a so-called snap military exercise to distract attention and hide their preparations. Then specially trained troops, without identifying patches, moved quickly to secure key installations. Once the operation was underway, the Russian force cut telephone cables, jammed communications and used cyberwarfare to cut off the Ukrainian military forces on the peninsula.
“They disconnected the Ukrainian forces in Crimea from their command and control,” the NATO commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, said in a recent interview. As it cemented control, the Kremlin has employed an unrelenting media campaign to reinforce its narrative that a Russian-abetted intervention had been needed to rescue the Russian-speaking population from right-wing extremists and chaos.
No sooner had the Obama administration demanded that Russia pull back from Crimea than the Kremlin raised the stakes by massing about 40,000 troops near Ukraine’s eastern frontier. Soon, the Russians were sending small, well-equipped teams across the Ukrainian border to seize government buildings that could be turned over to sympathizers and local militias, American officials said. Police stations and Interior Ministry buildings, which stored arms that could be turned over to local supporters, were targeted.
“Because they have some local support they can keep leveraging a very small cadre of very good fighters and move forward,” said Daniel Goure, an expert on the Russian military at the Lexington Institute, a policy research group.
While the Kremlin retains the option of mounting a large-scale intervention in eastern Ukraine, the immediate purposes of the air and ground forces massed near Ukraine appears to be to deter the Ukrainian military from cracking down in the east and to dissuade the United States from providing substantial military support. The Kremlin has used its military deployment to buttress its diplomatic strategy of insisting on an extensive degree of federalism in Ukraine, one in which the eastern provinces would be largely autonomous and under Moscow’s influence.
And as Russians have flexed their muscles, the White House appears to have refocused its demands. Crimea barely figured in the talks in Geneva that involved Mr. Kerry and his counterparts from Russia, Ukraine and the European Union.
The Obama administration’s urgent goal is to persuade the Kremlin to relinquish control over the government buildings in eastern Ukraine that the American officials insist have been held by small teams of Russian troops or pro-Russian separatists under Moscow’s influence. Despite the focus on the combustible situation in eastern Ukraine, the joint statement the diplomats issued in Geneva did not even mention the presence of Russia’s 40,000 troops near the border, which President Obama has urged be withdrawn.
Military experts say that the sort of strategy the Kremlin has employed in Ukraine is likely to work best in areas in which there are pockets of ethnic Russians to provide local support. The strategy is also easier to carry out if it is done close to Russian territory, where a large and intimidating force can be assembled and the Russian military can easily supply special forces.
“It can be used in the whole former Soviet space,” said Chris Donnelly, a former top adviser at NATO, who added that Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Central Asia states were “very vulnerable.”
“The Baltic States are much less vulnerable, but there will still be pressure on them and there will on Poland and Central Europe,” Mr. Donnelly added.
Admiral Stavridis agreed that Russia’s strategy would be most effective when employed against a nation with a large number of sympathizers. But he said that Russia’s deft use of cyberwarfare, special forces and conventional troops was a development that NATO needed to study and factor into its planning.
“In all of those areas they have raised their game, and they have integrated them quite capably,” he said. “And I think that has utility no matter where you are operating in the world.”
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/world/europe/new-prowess-for-russians.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0
Source: http://www.voanews.com/content/russia-shows-modern-military-in-ukraine-crisis/1904464.html
Russia Shows Modern Military in Ukraine Crisis
An estimated 40,000 Russian troops are deployed on the Ukrainian border, poised to invade if the order comes from Moscow. These forces are part of a much larger military that has been modernizing its forces over the past several years.
Western estimates say the Russian Defense Ministry has between 800,000 and one million men under arms. These include strategic rocket forces as well as the various uniformed services: air, air defense, ground and naval. And there are various kinds of special forces, such as the Spetsnaz belonging to Russia’s military intelligence or GRU. Stephen Blank, an expert on the Russian military at the American Foreign Policy Council, said there are also paramilitary forces.
“The other forces belong to other ministries: the Ministry of the Interior, which are the internal forces of the MVD. The FSB has forces - that’s the intelligence [service],” said Blank. “There are border troops and then there are paramilitaries like the Cossack formations. So there are lots of people involved here, probably something like one million men total in the regular armed forces, several hundred thousand more in these auxiliaries of the MVD, FSB, Cossacks and so on.”
Russia learned lessons from 2008 war with Georgia
Ian Brzezinski, from the Atlantic Council, said the Russian government is spending a lot of money to modernize its armed forces.
“$750 billion between now and the next decade to replenish their maritime fleet, replenish their air force to bring in fifth-generation aircraft, even more sophisticated air missile defense systems. They continue to robustly test and develop new ballistic missile capabilities and they continue their modernization of their ground forces.”
Brzezinski and others say Russia’s effort to modernize its military was prompted by poor performance in Moscow’s 2008, five-day war with Georgia over two separatist regions.
“You may recall the pictures of drunk soldiers straggling in the rear, trying to catch up to the frontline troops. And the fact that the Russians had a bit of difficulty taking on the Georgians, which didn’t put on that strong a defense - and they were able to press forward simply by pure mass rather than skill.”
Russia modernizes its military
Experts say one reform was to make the Russian military more mobile, better geared for rapid response and for local conflicts, rather than with the massive Soviet-style army. Keir Giles, head of Conflict Studies Research Center in Oxford, England, said during the Georgian war, coordination between the different armed service branches was a problem for the Russians.
“They didn’t, for example, have the kind of embedded forward air controllers with their ground units in order to actually communicate with air power. So some of the air losses in the Georgia war were actually shot down by their own side, by the Russians.”
New Russian military on display
Ian Brzezinski said the results of the reforms were on display during Russia’s annexation last month of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
“You see the way they have been performing in Crimea, where you had 20,000 to 30,000 Russian troops fan across the peninsula,” he said. "Pretty slick uniforms, well-maintained equipment, and real stunningly or impressive discipline and communication silence, communications discipline. They are certainly far more capable than they were six years ago.”
Stephen Blank from the American Foreign Policy Council said Russia used its forces “in an extraordinarily disciplined, bloodless, swift way, in conjunction with information warfare against Ukraine, saturation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine with Russian propaganda, and the deployment of highly-trained, modernized combined forces on the western strategic direction, to intimidate, divert and immobilize NATO and the Ukrainian armed forces.”
Blank said members of the Russian military leadership believe that the end of the Cold War was an American special operation to take down the Soviet Union without firing a shot - and it succeeded. Blank said the Russian military tried to do the same, with success, in Crimea.
Western estimates say the Russian Defense Ministry has between 800,000 and one million men under arms. These include strategic rocket forces as well as the various uniformed services: air, air defense, ground and naval. And there are various kinds of special forces, such as the Spetsnaz belonging to Russia’s military intelligence or GRU. Stephen Blank, an expert on the Russian military at the American Foreign Policy Council, said there are also paramilitary forces.
“The other forces belong to other ministries: the Ministry of the Interior, which are the internal forces of the MVD. The FSB has forces - that’s the intelligence [service],” said Blank. “There are border troops and then there are paramilitaries like the Cossack formations. So there are lots of people involved here, probably something like one million men total in the regular armed forces, several hundred thousand more in these auxiliaries of the MVD, FSB, Cossacks and so on.”
Russia learned lessons from 2008 war with Georgia
Ian Brzezinski, from the Atlantic Council, said the Russian government is spending a lot of money to modernize its armed forces.
“$750 billion between now and the next decade to replenish their maritime fleet, replenish their air force to bring in fifth-generation aircraft, even more sophisticated air missile defense systems. They continue to robustly test and develop new ballistic missile capabilities and they continue their modernization of their ground forces.”
Brzezinski and others say Russia’s effort to modernize its military was prompted by poor performance in Moscow’s 2008, five-day war with Georgia over two separatist regions.
“You may recall the pictures of drunk soldiers straggling in the rear, trying to catch up to the frontline troops. And the fact that the Russians had a bit of difficulty taking on the Georgians, which didn’t put on that strong a defense - and they were able to press forward simply by pure mass rather than skill.”
Russia modernizes its military
Experts say one reform was to make the Russian military more mobile, better geared for rapid response and for local conflicts, rather than with the massive Soviet-style army. Keir Giles, head of Conflict Studies Research Center in Oxford, England, said during the Georgian war, coordination between the different armed service branches was a problem for the Russians.
“They didn’t, for example, have the kind of embedded forward air controllers with their ground units in order to actually communicate with air power. So some of the air losses in the Georgia war were actually shot down by their own side, by the Russians.”
New Russian military on display
Ian Brzezinski said the results of the reforms were on display during Russia’s annexation last month of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
“You see the way they have been performing in Crimea, where you had 20,000 to 30,000 Russian troops fan across the peninsula,” he said. "Pretty slick uniforms, well-maintained equipment, and real stunningly or impressive discipline and communication silence, communications discipline. They are certainly far more capable than they were six years ago.”
Stephen Blank from the American Foreign Policy Council said Russia used its forces “in an extraordinarily disciplined, bloodless, swift way, in conjunction with information warfare against Ukraine, saturation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine with Russian propaganda, and the deployment of highly-trained, modernized combined forces on the western strategic direction, to intimidate, divert and immobilize NATO and the Ukrainian armed forces.”
Blank said members of the Russian military leadership believe that the end of the Cold War was an American special operation to take down the Soviet Union without firing a shot - and it succeeded. Blank said the Russian military tried to do the same, with success, in Crimea.
Source: http://www.voanews.com/content/russia-shows-modern-military-in-ukraine-crisis/1904464.html
Russian forces in eastern Ukraine?
For
two weeks, the mysteriously well-armed, professional gunmen known as
“green men” have seized Ukrainian government sites in town after town,
igniting a brush fire of separatist unrest across eastern Ukraine.
Strenuous denials from the Kremlin have closely followed each
accusation by Ukrainian officials that the world was witnessing a
stealthy invasion by Russian forces.
Now, photographs and descriptions
from eastern Ukraine endorsed by the Obama administration on Sunday
suggest that many of the green men are indeed Russian military and
intelligence forces — equipped in the same fashion as Russian special
operations troops involved in annexing the Crimea region in February.
Some of the men photographed in Ukraine have been identified in other
photos clearly taken among Russian troops in other settings.
And
Ukraine’s state security service has identified one Russian reported to
be active among the green men as Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, a Russian
military intelligence operative in his mid- to late 50s. He is said to
have a long résumé of undercover service with the Main Intelligence
Directorate of the Russian general staff, most recently in Crimea in
February and March and now in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of
Slovyansk.
“There has been broad unity in the international community about the connection between Russia
and some of the armed militants in eastern Ukraine, and the photos
presented by the Ukrainians last week only further confirm this, which
is why U.S. officials have continued to make that case,” Jen Psaki, the
State Department spokeswoman, said Sunday.
The
question of Russia’s role in eastern Ukraine has a critical bearing on
the agreement reached Thursday in Geneva among Russian, Ukrainian,
American and European diplomats to ease the crisis. American officials
have said that Russia would be held responsible for ensuring that the
Ukrainian government buildings were vacated, and that it could face new
sanctions if the terms were not met.
The
Kremlin insists that Russian forces are in no way involved, and that
Mr. Strelkov does not even exist, at least not as a Russian operative
sent to Ukraine with orders to stir up trouble. “It’s all nonsense,”
President Vladimir V. Putin
said Thursday during a four-hour question-and-answer session on Russian
television. “There are no Russian units, special services or
instructors in the east of Ukraine.” Pro-Russian activists who have
seized government buildings in at least 10 towns across eastern Ukraine
also deny getting help from professional Russian soldiers or
intelligence agents.
But
masking the identity of its forces, and clouding the possibilities for
international denunciation, is a central part of the Russian strategy,
developed over years of conflict in the former Soviet sphere, Ukrainian
and American officials say.
John
R. Schindler, a former National Security Agency counterintelligence
officer who now teaches at the Naval War College, calls it “special
war”: “an amalgam of espionage, subversion, even forms of terrorism to
attain political ends without actually going to war in any conventional
sense.”
And
one country, Mr. Schindler noted in an article last year in which he
coined the term, that particularly excels at special war is Russia,
which carried out its first post-Soviet war to regain control of
rebellious Chechnya back in 1994 by sending in a column of armored
vehicles filled with Russian soldiers masquerading as pro-Moscow
Chechens.
Russia’s
flair for “maskirovka” — disguised warfare — has become even more
evident under Mr. Putin, a former K.G.B. officer whose closest advisers
are mostly from that same Soviet intelligence agency. For
nearly two months now, the shaky new Ukrainian government has been left
to battle phantoms, first in Crimea and now in eastern Ukraine, where
previously fringe pro-Russian political activists have had their
fortunes lifted by small but heavily armed groups of masked men.
In
the eastern city of Slovyansk, under the control of pro-Russian
insurgents for more than a week now, the green men have worked hard to
blend in with locals but have occasionally let the mask slip, apparently
to send a clear message that any push to regain control by Ukrainian
forces would risk bringing down the wrath of the Russian military.
A
gradation of forces control the city and other areas now in the hands
of separatist rebels, ranging from clearly professional masked soldiers
and unruly groups of local men in camouflage, rifles slung over their
shoulders, to teenage boys in sweatpants carrying baseball bats or
hunting knives. At most times, only the local toughs are visible on the
streets.
But
when a woman sidled up to one of the masked gunmen in the city’s
central square last week and asked where he was from, she got an answer
that summed up Russia’s bedeviling and constantly shifting disguises.
The gunman initially said he was “from Russia,” but when pressed, said
coyly that he was “from New Russia,” a long-forgotten czarist-era term
revived last week by Mr. Putin to describe a large section of eastern
and southern Ukraine.
Asked
by the woman what would happen if the Ukrainian Army attacked, he
replied, “We have to stand for only 24 hours, to tend the fire, and
after that, a one million man army will be here.”
When
a Ukrainian armored column approached the town last Wednesday and then
swiftly surrendered, a group of disciplined green men suddenly appeared
on the scene and stood guard. Over the course of several hours, several
of them told bystanders in the sympathetic crowd that they were
Russians. They allowed themselves to be photographed with local girls,
and drove an armored personnel carrier in circles to please the crowd.
“It’s
hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang
forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began
to occupy government facilities,” Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, NATO’s top
military commander, wrote in a blog post
on the alliance’s website.“It’s hard to fathom because it’s simply not
true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that
is well planned and organized, and we assess that it is being carried
out at the direction of Russia.”
His
evidence, however, was mostly circumstantial: Pro-Russian gunmen
“exhibit telltale military training and equipment”; they handle weapons
like professional soldiers, not new recruits to a pickup “self-defense”
force; they carry weapons and equipment that are primarily Russian Army
issue, not gear “that civilians would be likely to be able to get their
hands on in large numbers.” General Breedlove conceded that such points,
taken alone, might not prove much, “but taken in the aggregate, the
story is clear.”
Heightening
skepticism of Russia’s denials is also the fact that Mr. Putin, after
denyingany Russian link to the masked gunmen who seized government
buildings in Crimea and blockaded Ukrainian military bases there, last
week changed his story and said, “Of course, Russian servicemen did back
the Crimean self-defense forces.”
The
superior, clearly anxious to keep Russia’s role hidden, can be heard
ordering his men on the ground in Ukraine not to identify themselves and
to find someone with a Ukrainian accent who can give an interview to a
Russian television channel. It was very important, he added, to say on
air that all the pro-Russian insurgents want is “federalization,” or
constitutional changes to give eastern Ukraine more autonomy. Military
analysts say the Russian tactics show a disturbing amount of finesse
that speak to long-term planning.
“The
Russians have used very specialized, very effective forces,” said Jacob
W. Kipp, an expert on the Russian military and the former deputy
director of the United States Army’s School of Advanced Military Studies
at Fort Leavenworth, Kan. “They
don’t assume that civilians are cluttering up the battlefield; they
assume they are going to be there,” he said. “They are trained to
operate in these kind of environments.”
Putin Says Crimea Takeover Shows Russian Military Prowess
President Vladimir Putin has said Russia's takeover of Crimea showed
off its military prowess, as his defense minister reported that
the Russian flag was now flying over all military sites on the Black Sea
peninsula. In a Kremlin ceremony with senior security officials on Friday,
Sergei Shoigu told Putin that all Ukrainian servicemen still loyal
to Kiev have left the Crimea region, whose annexation by Moscow has led
to the worst stand-off with the West since the Cold War.
"The
recent events in Crimea were a serious test," said Putin in an echoing
and glided Kremlin hall, shown on state television. "They demonstrated
both the completely new capabilities of our Armed Forces and the high
morale of the personnel."
A deputy head of the Federal Security Service, Alexander Malevany,
told Putin at the meeting active measures were being taken to counter
what he called growing Western efforts to weaken the Russian state
and curb Moscow's influence in its post-Soviet backyard. The U.S. and NATO have voiced alarm over what they say are thousands
of Russian troops massed near its western border with Ukraine. Putin has
reserved the right to send troops into Ukraine, which is home to a
large population of Russian-speakers in the east.
Putin praised
Russian troops for "avoiding bloodshed" in Crimea,
whose largely ethnic Russian citizens overwhelmingly voted to join
Russia in a March 16 referendum dismissed in the West as illegal.
Speaking to Ukrainian servicemen who chose to swap sides and swear
allegiance to Russia, Putin hinted they would be well rewarded
by pointing out that Russian servicemen earned some four times more than
their Ukrainian counterparts. Ukraine's former Navy chief, Rear Admiral
Denis Berezovsky, has been
handed the deputy command of Russia's Black Sea Fleet after his
defection.
"The change in state symbols on all ships and in all divisions that
have sided with the Russian army has been completed," Shoigu told Putin.
He
said warships, war planes and other hardware seized from troops
loyal to Kiev will be returned to Ukraine, which could help Russia avoid
a potentially costly legal battle in international arbitration courts.
The Foreign Ministry also said Moscow would move to annul its lease
agreement with Kiev that allowed it to base its Black Sea Fleet on the
peninsula. Despite signs that tensions with the West may be cooling as
a status
quo takes shape in Crimea, Malevany warned Putin at Friday's meeting
that Moscow faces growing threats from the U.S. and its allies, who are
trying to weaken Russia's influence on Ukraine.
"There has been a sharp increase in external threats to the state,"
he said. "The lawful desire of the peoples of Crimea and eastern
Ukrainian regions is causing hysteria in the U.S. and its allies."
Naval War College Professor: How to Win Cold War 2.0
To beat Vladimir Putin, we're going to have to be a little more like him
The last two weeks have witnessed the upending of the European order and the close of the post-Cold War era. With his invasion of Crimea and the instant absorption of the strategic peninsula, Vladimir Putin has shown that he will not play by the West’s rules. The “end of history” is at an end—we’re now seeing the onset of Cold War 2.0.
What’s on the Kremlin’s mind was made clear by Putin’s fire-breathing speech
to the Duma announcing the annexation of Crimea, which blended
retrograde Russian nationalism with a generous helping of messianism on
behalf of his fellow Slavs, alongside the KGB-speak that Putin is so
fond of. If you enjoy mystical references to Orthodox saints of two
millennia past accompanied by warnings about a Western fifth column and
“national traitors,” this was the speech for you.
Putin confirmed
the worst fears of Ukrainians who think they should have their own
country. But his ambitions go well beyond Ukraine: By explicitly linking
Russian ethnicity with membership in the Russian Federation, Putin has
challenged the post-Soviet order writ large.
For years, I studied Russia as a counterintelligence officer for
the National Security Agency, and at times I feel like I’m seeing
history in reverse. The Kremlin is a fiercely revisionist power, seeking
to change the status quo by various forms of force. This will soon
involve NATO members in the Baltics directly, as well as Poland and
Romania indirectly. Longstanding Russian acumen in what I term Special War,
an amalgam of espionage, subversion and terrorism by spies and special
operatives, is already known to Russia’s neighbors and can be expected
to increase.
In truth, Putin set Russia on a course for Cold War
2.0 as far back as 2007, and perhaps earlier; Western
counterintelligence noted major upswings in aggressive Russian espionage
and subversion against NATO members as far back as 2006.The brief
Georgia war of August 2008, which made clear that the Kremlin was
perfectly comfortable with using force in the post-Soviet space, ought
to have served as a bigger wake-up call for the West.
Unfortunately, it didn’t, and now former Soviet republics with a
Russian minority—which is most of them—must now wonder what parts of
their country the Kremlin may wish to unilaterally seize in the future.
Statements from Crimea’s new rulers that the Tatar population will need to be relocated—considering that Stalin deported them in toto in 1944, killing nearly half in the process—speak volumes about the Kremlin’s mentality.
There
is ample Soviet nostalgia on display, combined with a crude nationalism
that ought to worry all Europeans. After all, issues of ethnicity and
borders led directly to both World Wars. Central and Eastern Europe
believed such questions had been settled—by Josef Stalin, let us
remember—in 1945 and ought not be reopened.
Where revisiting this
leads was made painfully clear in the Balkans in the 1990s. Yet Putin
has now done the same in the far bigger post-Soviet space, with
implications that are deeply troubling. That Russia, a patchwork of
nearly 200 nationalities, not all of them deeply pro-Kremlin, ultimately
has far more to lose than Ukraine from redrawing borders based on
ethnicity seems not to have occurred to anyone in the Kremlin.
Since
the annexation of Crimea, Russian intelligence has reportedly been
employing its playbook in eastern and southern Ukraine, using spies and
operatives to stir up trouble among ethnic Russians and lay the
groundwork for a future invasion by “self-defense militias” backed by
Russian troops. It’s not yet clear that these techniques will get Putin
what he wants, but there is always the option of overt invasion by the
Russian military, which must be judged a serious possibility.
If Russia goes down that road, the stoic passivity we have witnessed by besieged Ukrainian troops in Crimea will end and Moscow will have a major war on its hands—indeed
the biggest European conflict since 1945. Moves by the Russian military
into central Ukraine would generate stiff resistance that could last
years, particularly since the brutal Stalinist methods of mass
repression that were needed to pacify Ukraine in the late 1940s are off
the table for even Putin in 2014. In the unlikely event that Russian
forces move into western Ukraine, past Kyiv and toward Poland, it would
be difficult to see how NATO could avoid becoming involved.
That
said, it’s evident that Moscow prefers easy conquest and would likely
avoid any moves that could trigger a genuine war with NATO. Putin has
become a gambler but not yet a fool. However, his nationalist attack on
the post-Cold War European order is bound to evoke memories of Adolf
Hitler in the late 1930s. Like Hitler, Putin has reestablished the pride
of a defeated people, brought them out of economic disaster, rebuilt
the military and revitalized ethno-nationalism while humiliating the
hated victors of the last war. This is a heady brew, so Putin’s current
high popularity numbers among average Russians ought not surprise, but
the Kremlin’s vision of a Russian Lebensraum transcending current borders ought to alarm to anyone invested in European peace and stability.
Whether
or not Putin invades mainland Ukraine, NATO must understand that the
Kremlin has decided to begin a new Cold War by attacking the settlement
of the last one. Further Western denial—like we saw after the invasion
of Georgia—will only encourage more Russian adventurism, with all the
attendant risks of wider conflict and major war. While the George W.
Bush administration bears its share of the blame here, there is no
denying that the Obama White House has repeatedly fumbled the ball with
Russia. The famed “reset” was a fine idea if Dmitry Medvedev were
actually running Russia, which he certainly was not. Moreover, this
White House’s mishandling of Syria, essentially outsourcing U.S. policy
to Moscow, only encouraged more hardball from Putin, as was predictable to those who understand this Kremlin.
All
the same, I have never had much sympathy for neoconservative critiques
of Putin’s Russia, which too often have counseled needless hostility and
willful disregard for legitimate Russian interests in Moscow’s “near
abroad,” as well as unwise emphasis on missile defense, seen by the
Kremlin as a threat. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western
powers, including the United States, were indeed too casually dismissive
of Russian concerns—the Balkan wars of the 1990s being a major case in
point—and Moscow has now gotten its revenge, repaid with interest, in
Ukraine.
John R. Schindler is professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College and a former National Security Agency counterintelligence officer.
Source: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/new-cold-war-russia
By sending its military to quell the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the government in Kiev may be setting itself up for a spectacular defeat, as neither its army nor its intelligence services are prepared for a confrontation with Russia
Like many of the leading men in Ukraine’s new military pecking order, Petr Mekhed wasn’t exactly ripe for the task of fending off a Russian invasion when he assumed the post of Deputy Defense Minister in February. His last tour of combat duty was about 30 years ago, during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, after which he reached the rank of colonel in the Red Army. When revolution in Ukraine broke out this winter, his wartime experience made him better equipped than most at defending the barricades of the Maidan protest camp in the center of Kiev. But it was not as useful in preparing him to lead his country into war. “For some issues I’ve had to sit down with a book and study up,” he says.
His conclusion so far is an unsettling one for Ukraine’s political leaders. If they want to find a way out of their conflict with Russia, which edged closer on Tuesday to military confrontation in the eastern region of Donetsk, they have only one way to do it, Mekhed says, and that is to negotiate. “We’ll never get anywhere through the use of military force,” he tells TIME. It would be much more effective to undercut Russia’s support for the local separatists by meeting them halfway, Mekhed suggests, with an offer of more autonomy for Ukraine’s eastern regions. “Our chances of saving Donetsk are now in the hands of our politicians and their ability to sit down with the people there and talk to them.”
But those politicians don’t seem to agree. On Tuesday morning, Ukraine’s interim President, Oleksandr Turchynov, launched the first military action against the pro-Russian gunmen who seized parts of Donetsk over the weekend. The assault, which the central government in Kiev termed an antiterrorist operation, reportedly involved more than a dozen armored personnel carriers, as well as helicopters and military trucks that faced off against 30 gunmen for control of an airport near the town of Kramatorsk.
So was Ukraine ready for that kind of standoff? Maybe. But some of its top military and intelligence officials highly doubt that it is ready for the likely fallout, and whatever support Tuesday’s operation garnered from the White House will probably not translate into much military assistance from the West. More likely, it will provoke a Russian counterstrike, not from the small group of Russian special forces who have apparently been leading the separatists in Donetsk, but from the full weight of the Russian military. That would mean game over pretty quickly for Ukraine.
So far, its leaders seem to be enjoying their taste of victory. When reports came back to Kiev that Tuesday’s operation was a success — that the Ukrainian forces had managed to repel the separatist attack on the airport — Turchynov made a self-congratulatory statement to parliament. “I’m convinced that there will not be any terrorists left soon in Donetsk and other regions and they will find themselves in the dock — this is where they belong,” he said.
That did not go over well with Vladimir Putin. In a phone call on Tuesday night with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the Russian President said the crisis in eastern Ukraine had “sharpened drastically” and stressed that the world “must clearly condemn these anticonstitutional actions.” The world, of course, did no such thing, nor has it done much to help Ukraine prepare for what’s likely coming.
In early March, when Russia had just begun its military occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, Mekhed, a small, soft-spoken man with silver hair and a slight stutter, made his first official visit to Brussels to hold talks with the NATO alliance. He had no illusions about any of the Western powers coming to Ukraine’s defense, but he held out hope for some help with communications and intelligence. “We have problems with figuring out what forces are where,” he said, referring to the Russians. “On top of that, our weapons systems are by and large tied up with Russia, with cooperation with Russia.”
That makes upgrading those systems extremely difficult for Ukraine. In recent years, its military infrastructure has been “systematically destroyed” through the neglect, corruption and malfeasance of Ukraine’s former leaders, says Mekhed, but bringing them back to working order would require buying up spare parts from Russia, which Moscow has unsurprisingly refused to sell.
On Tuesday afternoon, a few hours before the clashes near the airport, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it was suspending all military supplies to Ukraine. “May I remind you that Russia has committed not to provide, or to show restraint in providing, weapons to conflict zones,” Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defense Anatoly Antonov said in a statement explaining the decision. (His caveat about “restraint” was apparently meant to make room for Russia’s ongoing sale of weapons to Syria during its civil war.)
In those conditions, Ukraine would be unable to repair much of its military hardware even if it had help from NATO; none of the members of that alliance use or produce the kind of kit that Ukraine needs. “The spare parts all come from Russia,” says Mekhed. “So we have to find new markets to find similar equipment to arm our troops, and not only weapons, but also training of the servicemen before we can put those weapons on the battlefield.”
That would take months or years, not to mention billions of extra dollars that Ukraine’s nearly bankrupt economy cannot spare. It is already having enough trouble with the relatively faster and cheaper task of bringing its intelligence services up to scratch. Much like the weakness of its military, Ukraine’s failures in the field espionage have a lot to do with its fraternal ties to Russia. “We even have an agreement on the books that forbids our [military intelligence] agencies from working against each other,” says Igor Smeshko, who served as head of Ukraine’s State Security Service from 2003 to 2005. “We could never have imagined that our Russian brothers would ever fight a war against us,” he says. “We could never have thought that just when we’d been bloodied from fighting our own tyranny here at home, that we would get a knife in the back from the Russians.”
In retrospect, that abundance of trust looks painfully naive, but it goes far in explaining why Ukraine let its intelligence work lapse in recent years, particularly near the border with Russia. That mistake has left it particularly ill equipped to deal with the current phase of the conflict with Russia. Over the past few days, the troops who have been seizing police stations and other government buildings have borne all the hallmarks of Russian special forces who have removed the insignia from their uniforms — the same tactic Russia used during its conquest of Crimea.
The most effective way for Ukraine to counter that kind of semiclandestine invasion, says Smeshko, would be to deploy small, mobile teams of special-operations troops, the kind that Ukraine’s intelligence services should have at their disposal, to isolate and arrest the Russian saboteurs. “Only special forces can go up against special forces,” he says.
Instead, the government in Kiev seems to be employing a mix of Interior Ministry police and military troops, and on Tuesday morning, it also sent its first batch of national-guard volunteers, with little or no apparent training, to help fight separatism in eastern Ukraine. “The troops have a high fighting spirit,” said Andriy Parubiy, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, in dispatching them to the east. “It’s not easy over there,” he wrote on his Facebook page. “But I’m sure we will win, because with us is God and Ukraine.” (Before assuming one of his country’s most senior military posts in February, Parubiy had zero military experience of any kind other than his work protecting the protest camp in Kiev this winter. His Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, is a hardened 17-year veteran of the KGB who oversaw Russia’s scorched-earth conquest of Chechnya in 1999–2000.)
The mismatched forces now facing off in eastern Ukraine also present a potential risk to the locals. In the past few days, the pro-Russian separatist troops have proved adept at blending in among mobs of civilians, who have done the heavy lifting in the occupation of numerous government buildings across Donetsk. The military forces Ukraine has now sent to evict them are not trained to pick out the organizers of those attacks from among the throngs they use. “And that is the one thing our strategic opponent is waiting for, a picture of mass bloodshed,” says Smeshko.
Considering how little room for error Ukraine has in this operation, Mekhed should perhaps feel lucky to be focusing on a different part of the battlefield. Russia’s annexation of Crimea left thousands of Ukrainian servicemen marooned on that suddenly foreign peninsula, and Mekhed has been in charge of securing their return to mainland Ukraine. At the briefing he gave to reporters on Tuesday in Kiev, he focused mostly on all that this effort entails, such as the purchase of sleeping bags, sleeping mats and camouflage netting for all the displaced troops.
“We have to evacuate all of our servicemen and equipment from Crimea, to save what we could salvage from there, to set up new garrisons, and all of that is a whole lot of work,” he told TIME after the briefing at a Kiev hotel. “So believe me, Russia’s actions have already set us back years.” And that may just be the beginning.
Source:http://time.com/64303/ukraine-is-not-ready-for-the-consequences-of-taking-russias-military-bait/
John R. Schindler is professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College and a former National Security Agency counterintelligence officer.
Source: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/new-cold-war-russia
Ukraine Is Not Ready for the Consequences of Taking Russia’s Military Bait
By sending its military to quell the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the government in Kiev may be setting itself up for a spectacular defeat, as neither its army nor its intelligence services are prepared for a confrontation with Russia
Like many of the leading men in Ukraine’s new military pecking order, Petr Mekhed wasn’t exactly ripe for the task of fending off a Russian invasion when he assumed the post of Deputy Defense Minister in February. His last tour of combat duty was about 30 years ago, during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, after which he reached the rank of colonel in the Red Army. When revolution in Ukraine broke out this winter, his wartime experience made him better equipped than most at defending the barricades of the Maidan protest camp in the center of Kiev. But it was not as useful in preparing him to lead his country into war. “For some issues I’ve had to sit down with a book and study up,” he says.
His conclusion so far is an unsettling one for Ukraine’s political leaders. If they want to find a way out of their conflict with Russia, which edged closer on Tuesday to military confrontation in the eastern region of Donetsk, they have only one way to do it, Mekhed says, and that is to negotiate. “We’ll never get anywhere through the use of military force,” he tells TIME. It would be much more effective to undercut Russia’s support for the local separatists by meeting them halfway, Mekhed suggests, with an offer of more autonomy for Ukraine’s eastern regions. “Our chances of saving Donetsk are now in the hands of our politicians and their ability to sit down with the people there and talk to them.”
But those politicians don’t seem to agree. On Tuesday morning, Ukraine’s interim President, Oleksandr Turchynov, launched the first military action against the pro-Russian gunmen who seized parts of Donetsk over the weekend. The assault, which the central government in Kiev termed an antiterrorist operation, reportedly involved more than a dozen armored personnel carriers, as well as helicopters and military trucks that faced off against 30 gunmen for control of an airport near the town of Kramatorsk.
So was Ukraine ready for that kind of standoff? Maybe. But some of its top military and intelligence officials highly doubt that it is ready for the likely fallout, and whatever support Tuesday’s operation garnered from the White House will probably not translate into much military assistance from the West. More likely, it will provoke a Russian counterstrike, not from the small group of Russian special forces who have apparently been leading the separatists in Donetsk, but from the full weight of the Russian military. That would mean game over pretty quickly for Ukraine.
So far, its leaders seem to be enjoying their taste of victory. When reports came back to Kiev that Tuesday’s operation was a success — that the Ukrainian forces had managed to repel the separatist attack on the airport — Turchynov made a self-congratulatory statement to parliament. “I’m convinced that there will not be any terrorists left soon in Donetsk and other regions and they will find themselves in the dock — this is where they belong,” he said.
That did not go over well with Vladimir Putin. In a phone call on Tuesday night with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the Russian President said the crisis in eastern Ukraine had “sharpened drastically” and stressed that the world “must clearly condemn these anticonstitutional actions.” The world, of course, did no such thing, nor has it done much to help Ukraine prepare for what’s likely coming.
In early March, when Russia had just begun its military occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, Mekhed, a small, soft-spoken man with silver hair and a slight stutter, made his first official visit to Brussels to hold talks with the NATO alliance. He had no illusions about any of the Western powers coming to Ukraine’s defense, but he held out hope for some help with communications and intelligence. “We have problems with figuring out what forces are where,” he said, referring to the Russians. “On top of that, our weapons systems are by and large tied up with Russia, with cooperation with Russia.”
That makes upgrading those systems extremely difficult for Ukraine. In recent years, its military infrastructure has been “systematically destroyed” through the neglect, corruption and malfeasance of Ukraine’s former leaders, says Mekhed, but bringing them back to working order would require buying up spare parts from Russia, which Moscow has unsurprisingly refused to sell.
On Tuesday afternoon, a few hours before the clashes near the airport, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it was suspending all military supplies to Ukraine. “May I remind you that Russia has committed not to provide, or to show restraint in providing, weapons to conflict zones,” Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defense Anatoly Antonov said in a statement explaining the decision. (His caveat about “restraint” was apparently meant to make room for Russia’s ongoing sale of weapons to Syria during its civil war.)
In those conditions, Ukraine would be unable to repair much of its military hardware even if it had help from NATO; none of the members of that alliance use or produce the kind of kit that Ukraine needs. “The spare parts all come from Russia,” says Mekhed. “So we have to find new markets to find similar equipment to arm our troops, and not only weapons, but also training of the servicemen before we can put those weapons on the battlefield.”
That would take months or years, not to mention billions of extra dollars that Ukraine’s nearly bankrupt economy cannot spare. It is already having enough trouble with the relatively faster and cheaper task of bringing its intelligence services up to scratch. Much like the weakness of its military, Ukraine’s failures in the field espionage have a lot to do with its fraternal ties to Russia. “We even have an agreement on the books that forbids our [military intelligence] agencies from working against each other,” says Igor Smeshko, who served as head of Ukraine’s State Security Service from 2003 to 2005. “We could never have imagined that our Russian brothers would ever fight a war against us,” he says. “We could never have thought that just when we’d been bloodied from fighting our own tyranny here at home, that we would get a knife in the back from the Russians.”
In retrospect, that abundance of trust looks painfully naive, but it goes far in explaining why Ukraine let its intelligence work lapse in recent years, particularly near the border with Russia. That mistake has left it particularly ill equipped to deal with the current phase of the conflict with Russia. Over the past few days, the troops who have been seizing police stations and other government buildings have borne all the hallmarks of Russian special forces who have removed the insignia from their uniforms — the same tactic Russia used during its conquest of Crimea.
The most effective way for Ukraine to counter that kind of semiclandestine invasion, says Smeshko, would be to deploy small, mobile teams of special-operations troops, the kind that Ukraine’s intelligence services should have at their disposal, to isolate and arrest the Russian saboteurs. “Only special forces can go up against special forces,” he says.
Instead, the government in Kiev seems to be employing a mix of Interior Ministry police and military troops, and on Tuesday morning, it also sent its first batch of national-guard volunteers, with little or no apparent training, to help fight separatism in eastern Ukraine. “The troops have a high fighting spirit,” said Andriy Parubiy, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, in dispatching them to the east. “It’s not easy over there,” he wrote on his Facebook page. “But I’m sure we will win, because with us is God and Ukraine.” (Before assuming one of his country’s most senior military posts in February, Parubiy had zero military experience of any kind other than his work protecting the protest camp in Kiev this winter. His Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, is a hardened 17-year veteran of the KGB who oversaw Russia’s scorched-earth conquest of Chechnya in 1999–2000.)
The mismatched forces now facing off in eastern Ukraine also present a potential risk to the locals. In the past few days, the pro-Russian separatist troops have proved adept at blending in among mobs of civilians, who have done the heavy lifting in the occupation of numerous government buildings across Donetsk. The military forces Ukraine has now sent to evict them are not trained to pick out the organizers of those attacks from among the throngs they use. “And that is the one thing our strategic opponent is waiting for, a picture of mass bloodshed,” says Smeshko.
Considering how little room for error Ukraine has in this operation, Mekhed should perhaps feel lucky to be focusing on a different part of the battlefield. Russia’s annexation of Crimea left thousands of Ukrainian servicemen marooned on that suddenly foreign peninsula, and Mekhed has been in charge of securing their return to mainland Ukraine. At the briefing he gave to reporters on Tuesday in Kiev, he focused mostly on all that this effort entails, such as the purchase of sleeping bags, sleeping mats and camouflage netting for all the displaced troops.
“We have to evacuate all of our servicemen and equipment from Crimea, to save what we could salvage from there, to set up new garrisons, and all of that is a whole lot of work,” he told TIME after the briefing at a Kiev hotel. “So believe me, Russia’s actions have already set us back years.” And that may just be the beginning.
Source:http://time.com/64303/ukraine-is-not-ready-for-the-consequences-of-taking-russias-military-bait/
WAS Crimea just the beginning?
A senior military academic is warning Europe is staring down the
barrel of its biggest war since 1945. And it could start in days, as
Russian forces mass on the border with Ukraine — apparently poised to
invade. The commander of NATO forces in Europe visited the White
House overnight to voice his alarm at Moscow’s massive military build-up
facing eastern Ukraine — on the other side of the embattled country to
the already-annexed Crimean peninsula. Many other military and political voices are suddenly expressing the same fears. “By
the end of the weekend, Europe’s biggest war since 1945 will have begun
or Putin will have started to send the troops on the border home,”
declared Professor of the Naval War College at Boston University, John
Schindler. And he is not the only academic voicing this concern. The
troops are reportedly not average Russian conscripts. New intelligence
reveals the mechanised infantry units and their tanks to be among the
best and most highly trained the Russian Federation has — diverted from
their Moscow barracks to their tents and revetments overlooking Ukraine. Also
early this morning Australia time, a group of masked right wing
ultra-nationalists began a demonstration inside and out of the Ukraine’s
main parliament building - calling for the sacking of the police
minister after one of their leaders was shot dead.
There
are even reports — unconfirmed at this stage — that
Russia has in the past few hours erected a massive field hospital
designed to treat wounded soldiers. And Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s rhetoric has also been heating up, with claims that
Russian-speaking people in Ukraine are being treated “brutally”. The
much-talked-about Russian defence exercises near the Ukraine seem to be a
spoof, designed to explain away the buildup. While
highly publicised exercises have been underway in distant Siberia, only
a few “events” seem to have been staged among the troops massed near
Crimea and Ukraine. US Defense officials say the numbers of troops far
exceeds the
amount needed for any training exercise. And there is no evidence any
large-scale manoeuvres have actually taken place. More worrying is that
none of the troops have returned to their bases. War expert Schindler
has been fast and furiously tweeting his fears to all who care to listen
in recent hours.
He speculates the real number of Russian troops now in place may amount to 80,000. “(The)
odds of invasion are raising,” he tweeted early this morning. “Only
Putin really knows, but the world will know soon enough.”
He
argues that the presence of Russia’s best and finest forces
are unnecessary for a “show of strength”. Many of the units are
particularly loyal to Putin, he points out, meaning the Russian
president won’t want them far from his side in Moscow for long. It’s a
tactical move not lost on the military head of NATO — Europe’s defence
organisation. General
Philip Breedlove, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, gave a
classified briefing last night to various US government committees.
“We’re all concerned about what Russia is doing on the border
of Ukraine,” Breedlove said after the first briefing. “The size of the
forces have a message that are not congruous with respecting the
borders.” Even the United States — until now somewhat timid in its talk of Russia’s ambitions — is starting to get the message.
“The
thinking in the US government is that the likelihood of a
major Russian incursion into Ukraine has increased,” a senior US
official told Fox News. “I can’t tell you how awful this is,” said one
congressional source who spoke to Fox News on the condition of
anonymity. CNN
reports two Obama administration officials admitting off-record that
new threat assessments are saying an invasion was far more likely than
previously thought. Nothing is certain, the officials said. But there
have been “worrying signs” in the past three or four days. “This
has shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian
incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be,” one
said. In recent weeks the West has been stating its belief that
there was only 30,000 Russian troops deployed to the Ukraine region. But
there is mounting evidence a further 50,000 have arrived in the past
few days.
Pentagon
Press Secretary, Navy Rear Admiral John Kirby told a
press conference early this morning that Russia continues to reinforce
its units along the eastern and southern Ukraine border. “It’s doing
nothing to assist in the stability of that part of Europe,” the admiral
said. “I
would tell you that the staff here in the Pentagon, both the civilian
and uniformed, are constantly looking at other ways that ... we can
further reassure our allies and partners in Europe to potentially look
at either adding to or reinforcing existing operations or exercises or
even adding on additional opportunities,” Kirby said. “We’re looking at
that very closely right now ...” “Our concern is for the
territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and for the Ukrainian
people and their nation,” Kirby said.
Overnight the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly
voted in favour of Ukraine. With 100 votes for, and only 11 against, the
General Assembly voted to condemn Russia’s annexation of Crimea as
illegal. Another 58 nations abstained. The troop build-up along
the border is reminiscent of Russia’s military movements prior to the
conflicts in Chechnya and Georgia, one US official said. A Defense
official said if Russia were to invade the mainland, Ukraine would
attempt to defend itself and this would be “far from a bloodless event
as we saw in Crimea.” However, Ukraine would be outmatched, this
official told Fox News.
Source: http://www.news.com.au/world/a-rapid-russian-buildup-of-tanks-and-troops
Source: http://www.news.com.au/world/a-rapid-russian-buildup-of-tanks-and-troops
What Would A Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Look Like?
Will the Russians stop?
I’ve been asked this question a lot, and had the chance to expound on it at a recent event in Parliament
sponsored by the Henry Jackson Society, so thought I’d briefly outline
my thoughts here. That said, though, I should stress that the more time
passes, the less likely I think such an attack becomes, because of the
shifting political situation and also–as Kyiv moves forces east and
mobilises reserves and volunteers–the military calculus. However, it
cannot be excluded, so it is worth still considering, not least as the
preparatory phases I outline below have all been carried out; the
Russian General Staff may well not yet know if it is going to be
invading, but it has made sure that if the word does come down from the
Kremlin, it will be ready.
In brief, the aim would be a blitzkrieg that, before Ukraine has the
chance properly to muster its forces and, perhaps more to the point, the
West can meaningfully react, allows the Russians to draw a new front
line and assert their own ground truth, much as happened in Crimea
(though this would be much more bloody and contested). This would not be
a bid to conquer the whole country (the real question is whether they’d
seek to push as far as Odessa, taking more risks and extending their
supply lines, but also essentially depriving Ukraine of a coastline) but
instead quickly to take those areas where there are potentially
supportive local political elites and Russophone populations, and
consequently pretexts (however flimsy) to portray invasion as
‘liberation.’
The first stage would be to infiltrate special forces and agents into
both east and western Ukraine, as well as build up networks of allies
and agents locally, including elements of the Ukrainian SBU (Security
Service) whose real links are to Moscow. Meanwhile, they will develop
their abilities to monitor and, in due course, jam Ukrainian
communications. I note than a Beriev A-50 ‘Mainstay’ airborne
early-warning and eavesdropping aircraft has been deployed to
neighbouring Belarus, from whose airspace it can monitor Ukraine from
safe, friendly skies.
Vremya Cha, ‘Zero Hour,’ would be marked with a massive
attempt to shatter Ukraine’s command, control and communications
infrastructure through everything from jamming and cyberattack to
physical sabotage. Meanwhile, missile, bomber and artillery attacks
would not only target concentrations of forces but also crater runways,
smash bridges, rip train tracks and chew through roads in the hopes of
delaying Ukrainian attempts to muster their forces in the critical first
days and hours. The idea would be to spread chaos, so there might even
be some feints, or the appearance of feints, from Belarus or Russian
forces in Transnistria: the Russians do understand maskirovka, strategic deception, very well, and will do whatever they can to keep Kyiv uncertain and off-balance.
Meanwhile, the airports in eastern cities such as Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk will be being seized, whether by Russian GRU Spetsnaz commandoes or local allies, such as Berkut
special police under the command of friendly local administrations.
That will allow the rapid insertion of the paratroop forces the Russians
have already assembled close by, who can be flown in under heavy
fighter and EW cover (that Russia will essentially dominate Ukraine’s
skies is scarcely in doubt). They will then seize the main cities.
Paratroopers are tough and move fast, but they can be brittle in
stand-up conflict with mechanised forces, so regular Russian ground
forces will spill across the border to support them. Not only have
armoured and mechanised forces been mustered along the border, with full
artillery support, but perhaps more telling has been the assembly of
the logistical necessities–fuel, ammunition, medical supplies, etc–for
high-tempo operations.
The aim, as mentioned, will be to move fast to seize and define a new
front line wherever Moscow wants it. They may well simply bypass
Ukrainian troop concentrations when they can, leaving them to be mopped
up later. The greatest risk, after all, is that they get bogged down
long enough for Kyiv to concentrate its forces or, potentially, the West
to act. There would also be deployments of Interior Troops for
rear-area security given that even in the east while the cities may be
predominantly Russophone, the countryside is heavily Ukrainian.
The
preparations are in place, it would be easy for Moscow to manufacture a
pretext for action, and presenting the outside world with a fait
accompli and essentially trying to call its bluff is classic Putin.
However, the time for such an operation was probably a week ago rather
than now, while the risks in such an adventure would be considerable.
Russia has perhaps twice as many forces in theatre and a clear
superiority in airpower, but not such a great advantage that it can be
assured a quick and easy victory. It would also face the risk of
guerrilla actions and public resistance behind its lines, as well as
economic sanctions at the very least, but the possibility also of more
direct action by the West. In this context, a further Russian move makes
little real sense. But then again, nor did the annexation of Crimea, so
we have to accept that Putin now is working on a very different set of assumptions than the rest of us.
Russia says it faces growing threats from U.S. and allies
Moscow faces growing threats from the United States and its allies, who are trying to weaken Russia's influence on Ukraine, a senior security official was quoted as telling President Vladimir Putin on Friday. "There has been a sharp
increase in external threats to the state. The lawful desire of the
peoples of Crimea and eastern Ukrainian regions is causing hysteria in
the United States and its allies," Interfax quoted Alexander Malevany,
deputy head of the Federal Security Service, as saying. He said Russia
was taking "offensive counter-intelligence and intelligence measures"
to blunt Western efforts to "weaken Russian influence in a region that
is of vital importance", Interfax reported.
The report indicated Malevany had given no details about the measures, but the remarks could increase Western concerns that Moscow may have designs on eastern Ukraine after annexing the Crimea region, a move that has caused the biggest crisis in East-West relations since the Cold War. U.S. President Barack Obama said on Friday that a build-up of Russian troops near Ukraine's eastern border may be more than just an effort to intimidate Ukraine, and urged Moscow to pull its forces back to ease tension. Russia took military control over largely ethnic-Russian Crimea before its citizens voted to join Russia in a March 16 referendum dismissed in the West as illegal.
Putin has received permission from parliament to send the armed forces into Ukraine if necessary, raising concerns that he could cite alleged threats to Russian-speakers in eastern regions as grounds for intervention.
The report indicated Malevany had given no details about the measures, but the remarks could increase Western concerns that Moscow may have designs on eastern Ukraine after annexing the Crimea region, a move that has caused the biggest crisis in East-West relations since the Cold War. U.S. President Barack Obama said on Friday that a build-up of Russian troops near Ukraine's eastern border may be more than just an effort to intimidate Ukraine, and urged Moscow to pull its forces back to ease tension. Russia took military control over largely ethnic-Russian Crimea before its citizens voted to join Russia in a March 16 referendum dismissed in the West as illegal.
Putin has received permission from parliament to send the armed forces into Ukraine if necessary, raising concerns that he could cite alleged threats to Russian-speakers in eastern regions as grounds for intervention.
Why NATO is such a Thorn in Russia's Side
In a telephone call Monday between Russia's Defense Minister General
Sergei Shoigu and the U.S. Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel, Shoigu
described the activity of U.S. and NATO troops near Russia's border as
"unprecedented."
According to the official
Russian version of the call, his American counterpart assured him the
alliance did not have "provocative or expansionist" intentions -- and
that Russia should know this.
But it hardly seems to
matter how often NATO makes these assurances. The Kremlin will never
trust them. Fear of the Western military alliance's steady march east is
deep-rooted. It strikes at the very heart of Russia's national sense of
security, a relic of Cold War enmity which has seeped down to
post-Soviet generations.
Ilya Saraev is a
15-year-old pupil at the First Moscow cadet school in Moscow. He thinks
long and hard when I ask him about NATO. "I think NATO might be a friend
to Russia but there's one point I don't understand: Why it needs to
approach the border with Russia more and more," he says.
Cadet school is an
education in patriotism, like something from a bygone era. Besides the
regular classes, there are lessons in ballroom dancing. Teenage cadets
proudly leading local beauties through the waltz while outside their
classmates rehearse the goosestep.
After the takeover of Crimea, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry accused Russia of behaving in a 19th century fashion
in the 21st century. In some ways it's an epithet that seems to ring
true here. The children are immaculately mannered and thoughtful. They
write to their fellow cadets in Crimea. They say they feel sad there's
this tension between brother nations -- Russia and Ukraine.
"People still don't
realize that war means despair and grief," says 16-year-old Vlad
Voinakov. "They can't find a compromise because people's interests
become involved and that's where the problem lies."
Russia and NATO have
never been able to find much of a compromise. Russia's repeated stance
is that after German reunification, promises were made that NATO would
never expand eastward -- and were promptly broken. NATO says this is
simply not true. "No such pledge was made, and no evidence to back up
Russia's claims has ever been produced," the alliance wrote in an April
fact sheet entitled "Russia's accusations -- setting the record
straight."
NATO says it has tried
hard to make Russia a "privileged partner." It has worked together with
Russia on a range of issues from counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics
to submarine rescue and emergency planning. NATO says that
fundamentally Russia's anti-NATO rhetoric is an attempt to "divert
attention away from its actions" in Ukraine. Now all cooperation is off
the table.
"From the Russian side,
that NATO-Russian cooperation was just a camouflage," says Vladimir
Batyuk of Russian think tank, the Institute of USA and Canada Studies.
"After the Cold War Russia tried several times to become a member and
the Americans always said, 'it's not going to happen.'"
He quotes Lord
Ismay, NATO's first Secretary General, on the object of NATO's
existence: "To keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans
down."
Russian President
Vladimir Putin declared at his annual direct call with the Russian
people that part of his reasoning for annexing Crimea was to protect
Sevastopol, home of Russia's Black Sea fleet, from ever falling into
NATO's hands. "If we don't do anything, Ukraine will be drawn into NATO
sometime in the future. We'll be told: "This doesn't concern you," and
NATO ships will dock in Sevastopol, the city of Russia's naval glory,"
he said.
Ukraine's Prime Minister
Arseniy Yetsenyuk has said Ukrainian accession to NATO is not a
priority. The nation is currently in such a state of disarray that NATO
membership seems unimaginable. But a membership action plan was
discussed for both Ukraine and Georgia at the Bucharest Summit in 2008.
It was put on hold. But Putin does not forget.
"Ever since (former
Ukraine President Viktor) Yanukovych fled his country and a pro-Western
government took power in his country, of course this is something
[Putin] couldn't stop thinking about," says Masha Lipman of the Carnegie
Moscow Center. "So for him, to prevent Ukraine from becoming part of
the western orbit if not of NATO, was something he absolutely cannot
afford."
This is why the rotation
of 600 U.S. troops, small as it is, through the Baltic states and
Poland for joint-training exercises is such an affront for Russia. This
is why it is perhaps not strictly fair to accuse Russia of just engaging
in propaganda when it declares its mistrust of NATO.
Batyuk says he feels
that the general public's attitude to the alliance has worsened since
the end of the Cold War. Then, people were able to dismiss the Kremlin's
line towards NATO as Soviet propaganda, he says. Now it's different. "A
store of unsuccessful mishaps in relations between Russia and the West
after the end of the Cold War has contributed to a rise in suspicions on
the Russian side to Western policy in general and NATO in particular."
That's one of the
reasons Putin's popularity has soared since the annexation of Crimea.
There is a feeling among the general public that, at last, Russia is
standing up for its rights in the post-Soviet space where it has sat
maligned for decades. Much as the Kremlin likes to nurture that
narrative, it is also easy to see why it resonates with the Russian
public.
Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/30/world/europe/russia-ukraine-cadet-school/index.html?hpt=hp_t5
Russia Claims American Mercenaries Are in Eastern Ukraine
Russia claimed Tuesday that 150
specialists from an American private military group are in eastern
Ukraine, the region where pro-Russia protesters are clashing with
government forces. A woman who
identified herself as an employee of the group, the security contracting
company Greystone, declined comment. She also declined to provide her
name. Greystone, on its website,
identifies itself as a “provider of aviation and protective support
services and training” formerly part of Xe Services, the security
contracting company once known as Blackwater.
A
statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the Americans
were wearing the uniforms of Sokol, a Ukrainian police force, and were
“of particular concern.” A State
Department official referred questions to the company and said: “As for
the United States, we do not have any U.S. military units in Ukraine.”
Russia
also said that militants from Right Sector, a hard-line Ukrainian
nationalist organization, were trying to use force to stop protesters
opposed to the new Ukrainian government in Kiev. Pro-Russian activists have holed up in Ukrainian government buildings this week
in the country’s east and have called for a referendum on breaking from
Ukraine, similar to a vote last month in which the Crimean peninsula
voters to leave Ukraine and join Russia.
Russia has said it has
no designs on invading eastern Ukraine. The White House on Monday warned
Russia against moving “overtly or covertly” into that region and said
there was evidence that the pro-Russian demonstrators are being paid. Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that Russian agents are to blame
for unrest this week in Ukraine, and he warned that Russia may be
laying the groundwork for a military intervention, just as it did before
seizing the Crimean peninsula.
US Mercenaries Could Start All-Out War In Ukraine for Profit
The deployment of foreign private security firms in Ukraine is
unacceptable as they increase the risk of an outbreak of civil war,
Dennis John Kucinich, a former US Representative from Ohio and a
two-time presidential candidate, told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.
“We saw in Iraq how private security forces can get out of control.
Whenever you are in a politically sensitive, a military sensitive
situation the last thing you want is private security out there, because
they can actually profit by an expanded conflict. They can stir up a
war and then profit from it,” Kucinich said.
The former US Representative said he is completely against the use of private security companies in any conflicts.
“If oligarchs want to hire people to protect them, they have a right
to do that. But if nations bring in private armies you are looking at
combustible material here because there is no control. The private
armies will pursue private interests. They don't care about anything
except making more money. And the more war there is, the more money they
make,” Kucinich underlined. The big question is who exactly is financing the deployment of such private armies in Ukraine, the politician noted.
“You know the only money that Ukraine is getting right now is from the IMF. Who is paying these private armies?”
The Russian Foreign Ministry earlier voiced concerns over the buildup
of Ukrainian forces in the southeastern part of the country involving
some 150 American mercenaries from the Greystone company. Greystone is a private security company registered in Barbados,
according to open sources. It boasts it provides "protective security
and training solutions to customers in challenging environments.”
In February, the Ukrainian parliament, backed by far-right groups,
ousted President Viktor Yanukovych, amended the constitution and
scheduled an early presidential election for May 25. Moscow has described the uprising in Kiev as an illegitimate fascist
coup and a military seizure of power, which resulted in it taking steps
to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine, including the reunification of
Crimea with Russia.
Source: http://en.ria.ru/world/20140409/189123989/OPINION-US-Mercenaries-Could-Start-All-Out-War-In-Ukraine-for.html
Russia Seeks Several Military Bases Abroad
Russia is planning to expand its permanent military presence outside
its borders by placing military bases in a number of foreign countries,
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday. Shoigu said the list includes Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, the Seychelles, Singapore and several other countries.
“The talks are under way, and we are close to signing the relevant documents,” Shoigu told reporters in Moscow.
The minister added that the negotiations cover not only military
bases but also visits to ports in such countries on favorable conditions
as well as the opening of refueling sites for Russian strategic bombers
on patrol. Moscow currently has only one naval base outside the former Soviet
Union – in Tartus, Syria, but the fate of this naval facility is
uncertain because of the ongoing civil war in that country.
Post-Soviet Russia closed a large naval base in Vietnam and a radar base in Cuba in 2002 due to financial constraints. However, Russia has started reviving its navy and strategic aviation
since mid-2000s, seeing them as a tool to project the Russian image
abroad and to protect its national interests around the globe.
Now, Moscow needs to place such military assets in strategically
important regions of the world to make them work effectively toward the
goal of expanding Russia’s global influence.
Russian Spy Ship Docked in Havana
A
Russian warship was docked in Havana Wednesday, without explanation
from Communist Cuba or its state media. The Viktor Leonov CCB-175 boat,
measuring 91.5 meters (300 feet) long and 14.5 meters wide, was docked
at the port of Havana's cruise ship area, near the Russian Orthodox
Cathedral. The
Vishnya, or Meridian-class intelligence ship, which has a crew of
around 200, went into service in the Black Sea in 1988 before it was
transferred seven years later to the northern fleet, Russian media
sources said. Neither Cuban authorities nor state media have mentioned
the ship's visit, unlike on previous tours by Russian warships.The former Soviet Union was Cuba's
sponsor state through three decades of Cold War. After a period of some
distancing under former Russian president Boris Yeltsin, the countries
renewed their political, economic and military cooperation. The ship is reportedly armed with 30mm guns and anti-aircraft missiles. Its visit comes as isolated
Havana's current economic and political patron, Venezuela, is facing
unprecedented violent protests against President Nicolas Maduro's
government.
Putin's Tiny Army
Russian child soldiers trained in battle tactics, weapons and hand-to-hand combat to 'repel any enemy of the Motherland'
- Military sports club 'Berkut', or 'Golden Eagle', is in Zhukovsky, Russia
- Children as young a five sent on marches, trained in hand-to-hand combat
- They are even trained to fire Kalashnikovs, small arms and throw grenades
- The course offers preparation 'to young fighters, to repel any enemy'
- Parents urged to send kids before they become 'gamblers or drug addicts'
Old enough to hold a gun: Military sports club,
'Berkut', (meaning golden eagle), trains up young Russian, who dream of
joining the elite units of the Russian army and fighting under the
command of President Vladimir Putin
Gun trained: A young boy is pictured on their
website brandishing a hand gun and dressed in military fatigues with his
finger over the trigger
Special forces trained: Children as young a five
are sent on forced marches, given battlefield training, taught
hand-to-hand combat, and how to use military equipment
Early learners: 12-year-olds are also taught how to fire Kalashnikov assault rifles and other small arms
Nerves: During the clubs regular camps, some
children are given the opportunity to parachute jump during their
paratrooper training
Children as young a five are sent on
forced marches, given battlefield training, taught hand to hand combat,
and how to use military equipment. 12 year olds are also taught how to
fire Kalashnikov assault rifles and other small arms. During the clubs regular camps, some children are given the opportunity to parachute jump during their paratrooper training.
Young gun: This grab from the camp's website shows just how young the recruits are encouraged to start learning
Impressionable age: The club appears to urge
Russian parents not to wait until their child becomes a compulsive
gambler, drug addict or alcoholic, before sending them to the club
Defenders: The club based in Zhukovsky, Russia,
claims to provide military training designed to develop the younger
generation of the 'motherland' - a term synonymous with the former
Soviet Union and the communist rule of the last century
Throw over: They are also taught the art of hand-to-hand combat
Loyal family: The training is designed to promote a healthy lifestyle, good physical development and loyalty to their homeland
Learning to use a targeting device: Most
instructors are ex-armed forces and have first-hand knowledge of the
hardships of service in the armed forces and offer preparation 'to young
fighters, to repel any enemy'
Range of activities: Other activities include skydive training, survival skills and winter hiking
Fitness test: Every year camouflage clad
children and adults from the club march into the mountains of the Crimea
for an annual 130km trek
The club based in Zhukovsky, Russia, claims to provide military training designed to develop the younger generation of the 'motherland' - a term synonymous with the former Soviet Union and the communist rule of the last century. The training is designed to promote a healthy lifestyle, good physical development and loyalty to their homeland. Most instructors are ex-armed forces and have first-hand knowledge of the hardships of service in the armed forces and offer preparation 'to young fighters, to repel any enemy'.
Well armed: It also offers their youngsters the
opportunity to become full-fledged citizens of society and learn to
'resist evil and violence, to protect the weak and the oppressed, to
believe in justice and always be guided by courage and bravery'
Strong display: Every year the club celebrates
the victory of the Soviet Union during WW2 with a public performance, in
which camouflage-clad children demonstrate their hand to combat combat
skills in front of proud parents
Head over heels: Children demonstrate acrobatic technique at the Golden Eagle club, Zhukovsky, Russia
Tough kid: Formed during the Soviet era, the club
offers one program provided in The Young Paratrooper course
Grenade throwing: A young boy hones his grenade-throwing skills during battlefield practice in the woods
No messing: The course, which includes several
military-technical disciplines, physical conditioning and the
development a boy's moral qualities, can create quite an appetite
Other activities include skydive training, survival skills and winter hiking. Every year camouflage clad children and adults from the club march into the mountains of the Crimea for an annual 130km trek. The club appears to urge Russian parents not to wait until their child becomes a compulsive gambler, drug addict or alcoholic, before sending them to the club. It also offers their youngsters the opportunity to become full-fledged citizens of society and learn to 'resist evil and violence, to protect the weak and the oppressed, to believe in justice and always be guided by courage and bravery'. Every year the club celebrates the victory of the Soviet Union during WW2 with a public performance, in which camouflage-clad children demonstrate their hand to combat combat skills in front of proud parents. Formed during the Soviet era, the club offers one program provided in The Young Paratrooper course which includes several military-technical disciplines, physical conditioning and the development a boy's moral qualities.
Russia Launches Second Borei Class Nuclear Submarine
Russia on Monday put into service its second Borei-class nuclear submarine, nearly one year after the first one came into use in January.Speaking at the launching ceremony of the submarine named Alexander Nevsky, President Vladimir Putin said the vessel is a completely new strategic missile carrier. "Equipment of that class should become a cornerstone of the sea-based part of our nuclear triad," said Putin via video link. The submarine, whose construction started in 2004, was put afloat in the White Sea port of Severomorsk, home of the Russian Northern Fleet.A third sibling submarine is expected to be put into service in 2014. According to Putin, the Russian Navy will be equipped with eight Borei-class and eight multi-target Yasen-class nuclear submarines by 2020. He added Russia will build more non-nuclear multi-target submarines and develop coastal naval infrastructure.
Source: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2013-12/23/content_17192041.htm
Russia Test Fires New Yars Ballistic Missile
Russia carried out a successful test-firing of an RS-24 Yars
ballistic missile from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwest Russia on
Tuesday, a military representative said. “Today, December 24 at 11:00 a.m. Moscow time a detachment of the
Strategic Missile Forces conducted a test launch of a Yars silo-based
solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with a test
warhead,” Colonel Igor Yegorov said. The fifth-generation RS-24 (NATO reporting name SS-29) is an upgraded version of the Topol-M
ballistic missile and can carry multiple independently-targetable
nuclear warheads designed to evade missile defense systems. The first
RS-24 launch took place at Plesetsk in 2007. In October the Russian newspaper Vedemosti reported that another new
ballistic missile, codenamed RS-26 Rubezh, would have its first test
launch by the end of the year.
Source: http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20131224/185893612/Russia-Test-Fires-New-Yars-Ballistic-Missile-.html
Russian Missile Forces to Field All-New Arsenal by 2021
Russia’s
Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) will be fully equipped with
fifth-generation missile systems by 2021, a Defense Ministry spokesman
said Wednesday. The proportion of modern missiles in the RVSN will reach
around 60
percent by 2016 and 98 percent by 2021, Col. Igor Yegorov said. In
addition to the fifth-generation Yars and Topol-M missiles, new
command and control centers are being built and new communications,
security and other systems put in place, he said. Russia's missile
forces are being modernized in a bid to enable them
to penetrate the anti-missile defense systems being fielded by NATO and
the United States, Russian officials have said previously.
Source: http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20131023/184312350/Russian-Missile-Forces-to-Field-All-New-Arsenal-by-2021-.html
Development of S 500 Air Defense System on Schedule
The
development of Russia's formidable S-500 air defense system will
be completed in 2015, and the system could be put in service with the
Russian military as early as in 2017, the manufacturer, Almaz-Antey,
said Wednesday. “We must finish the S-500 development in 2015. There
have been no
changes in schedule,” Almaz-Antey general director Vitaly Neskorodov
told RIA Novosti, commenting on reports that the development could be
delayed. “The testing will take two or three years, so the first
deliveries could take place in 2017-2018,” Neskorodov said. The S-500, a
long-range air defense missile system, is expected to
become the backbone of a unified aerospace defense system being formed
in Russia. The system will have an extended range of up to 600
kilometers (370 miles) and simultaneously engage up to 10 targets. The
Russian military has demanded that the system must be capable of
intercepting ballistic missiles and hypersonic cruise missiles, and
plans to order at least 10 battalions of S-500s for the future Russian
Aerospace Defense Forces. The S-500 could become a trump card in
Russia’s response to the
US-backed European missile shield, which Moscow believes may threaten
Russia’s nuclear deterrent.
Sukhoi Completes Delivery of SU-34 Fighters
A batch of Su-34 fighter jets was delivered to Russia’s military
Monday in the final consignment under a 2008 deal with the Defense
Ministry for Sukhoi aircraft maker to deliver 32 of the two-seat
bombers. The aircraft, also known by the NATO codename Fullback, were
handed
over at the Novosibirsk aircraft plant, which is part of the Sukhoi
holding company. Sukhoi officials said the company has already started
implementing
another contract with the Defense Ministry to deliver an additional 92
Su-34s, making a total of 124 aircraft by 2020. A derivative of the
Su-27 fighter, the Su-34 is fitted with twin
AL-31MF afterburner turbojet engines and can carry a payload of up to
eight tons of precision-guided weapons over 4,000 kilometers. The
aircraft will eventually replace all of the ageing Su-24 strike aircraft
in service with the Russian air force and navy.
Advanced Mig-31BM Interceptors Stationed in Western Russia
Modernized
MiG-31BM interceptor aircraft have started combat alert
duty at an airbase in Tver Region in western Russia, with the full
modernization of the unit to be completed by the end of the year, a
military spokesperson said Tuesday. “In Tver region two modernized
Mig-31BM interceptors have started
their combat alert duty in the Western Military District,” said Col.
Oleg Kochetkov, the head of the district’s press service, adding that
the aircraft were delivered at the end of last year. “By the end of
2014, the Khotilovo MiG-31 squadron will be fully
re-equipped with the newer modification of the interceptors,” the
colonel said. The MiG-31BM is a two-seat supersonic long-distance
interceptor
aircraft developed by the Russian aircraft corporation MiG. It features
upgraded avionics, a 320 km detection range and a strike radius of 280
km. The plane’s multimode radar can detect up to 24 targets
simultaneously, engaging up to eight at the same time. The air fleet
upgrades are part of a series of modernization efforts by the Russian
Defense Ministry.
Russia Reinforces Armenian Base With Overhauled MiG-29 Fighter Jets
Russia has strengthened its airbase in Armenia with a batch of
overhauled MiG-29 fighter jets, a military official said Tuesday.
Russia’s 3624th Air Base at the Erebuni airport in Yerevan previously
hosted at least 16 MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets operating under the
framework of air defense agreements concluded between the members of the
Commonwealth of Independent States. “A batch of fourth-generation
MiG-29 multirole fighter jets has been
put in service with the Russian airbase at Eerebuni after an extensive
overhaul,” a spokesman for the Southern Military District, Col. Igor
Gorbul, said without specifying the number of aircraft. The Erebuni air
base is part of Russia’s 102nd military base in Gyumri, near Armenia’s
border with Turkey. The Russian military said in January that in
addition to fighter jets the Erebuni base will soon host a helicopter squadron armed with at least 18 attack and military transport choppers.
Source: http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140305/188092268/Russia-Reinforces-Armenian-Base-With-Overhauled-MiG-29-Fighter.html
Russian Navy to Acquire SU 30 SM Fighter as Part of Wider Aviation Buildup
The Russian Navy has confirmed its intentions to field the
latest-generation Sukhoi Su-30SM 'Flanker' fighter as part of a wider
ramp-up of its fixed- and rotary-wing combat capabilities, state media
disclosed on 2 September. Having entered into negotiations with Irkut for a possible 12 Su-30SM
aircraft in mid-2011, the Russian Navy now expects to receive "several
tens" of these fighters, the Itar-Tass news agency quoted Navy Commander
in Chief Admiral Viktor Chirkov as saying during a press conference at
the Kuznetsov Naval Academy in Saint Petersburg. The twin-seat Su-30SM is based on the Su-30MKI for India, and
features an improved radar, communications and ejector-seat system.
Russia ‘Welcomes’ the US Destroyer by Moving Bastion Anti-Ship Missiles to Crimea
Unconfirmed news reports claim the Russian Navy is deploying land-based ‘Bastion’
anti-ship missile systems as a response to the recent U.S. move
entering two naval vessels to the Black Sea. The two American Arleigh
Burke class destroyer USS Truxtun (DDG-103) crossed the Bosphorus Strait Friday, headed into the Black Sea, as tensions simmer over Ukraine’s Crimea
region. The Russians also moved two naval combatants from the
Mediterranean Task Force back to the Black Sea Fleet. Tension is
mounting in the Crimea Peninsula with the preparations for a referendum on independence from Ukraine later this week.
As of today, the Truxtun remain the only US warship in the Black Sea following the southbound passage of FF(G)-50 USS Taylor
through the Bosphorus. The Taylor, a Perry class frigate was deployed
to the Black Sea before the 2014 Sochi Olympic Games started. USS Taylor
and the flag ship of the US 6th Fleet USS Mount Whitney were sent to
the Black Sea to help with the evacuation of US athletes and spectators
in case of an terror attack to the Games. However, when visiting the
Black Sea port of Samsun, Turkey, the frigate damaged her propelled and
had to be towed away to Souda, Crete for repairs.
The US Navy
said in a statement on Thursday that the ship was bound for the Black
Sea to conduct military exercises with Bulgarian and Romanian naval
forces. According to the Montreux Convention, warships of countries which do not border the Black Sea can only stay in the waters for 21 days. The Bastion
anti-ship missile system was deployed last night (8-9 March) to
Sevastopol from the Russian town of Anapa, Krasnodar, about 250 miles to
the East. Follow bystanders recorded the movement of Bastion anti-ship
launcher complex on the streets Crimea. The K-300P Bastion-P employs P-800 Yakhont (SS-N-26) anti-ship cruise missile hypersonic anti-ship missiles
carried on mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TEL) is a Russian. The
missiles are used as mobile coastal defence systems, having an
effective range of 300 km.
Source: http://defense-update.com
Russian Fleet to Receive Powerful Submarines to Guard Black Sea and Mediterranean Basin
Six submarines will receive Russian Black Sea Fleet as a part of the 636.3 Project until 2016. Three submarines will be available to sailors this year. These are diesel-electric submarines: "Novorossiysk", "Rostov-on-Don," Stary Oskol." They belong to the third generation class of ships "Varshavyanka" (NATO – Kilo classification).
First one to appear on the Black Sea Fleet willl be "Novorossiysk". The length of the submarine - 73 meters, width - 10, maximum depth - 350 meters, submerged speed - twenty knots. According to public data, ships have powerful weapons and can strike with cruise missiles "Club-S" that are on board.
"Range
of fire of these missiles is about 300 kilometers. If the submarine
will be equipped with a complex "Kalibr", the range will be 1200-1500
kilometers. This complex, as reported by Russian Navy Commander Admiral
Viktor Chirkov, is adopted by the Russian Navy. So according to this
indicator Russian weapons comparable to American cruise missiles
"Tomahawk". With such a range missiles can hit targets in the countries
that are far outside of the Black Sea, i.e. somewhere in the region of
the Middle East," the vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical
Problems, captain Konstantin Sivkov stated.
New
submarines have unique noise characteristics. Their immediate
predecessors, the submarine project 877 "Varshavyanka" were named by
Western naval experts "black hole" precisely because it had a very low
noise level. According to this indicator, they are clearly superior to
similar Western models.
Submarine Project 636.3, which
is a deeply modernized version of "Varshavianka" has even lower levels
of noise. And the availability of more sophisticated sonar system gives
significant superiority to the ships of the same class and even to the
atomic submarines.
New ships can solve a wide range of
tasks. The first one is fights with submarines. Especially in areas
close to the coast of the probable enemy and not in areas near the
Russian coast. It is also the defense of naval bases, coastal and marine
communications. Today, the level of tension in the Black Sea is
relatively low, said Konstantin Sivkov.
"We must
not forget that the Mediterranean basin is close, which is characterized
by high levels of tension. Under certain conditions, it can spread to
the Black Sea, especially if the conflict in Syria will not be ended,
although there have are certain prerequisites for this now. Or if
conflict with Iran will be unresolved. In this case, the flow of
refugees, terrorists may spread to the Black Sea. And there will be a
conflict on the Black Sea," he said.
According
to experts, the increase in the number of submarines in three years in
the Black Sea will immediately provide cover up to six units for the
coastal territory from attack from enemy ships. In the future, the total
number of submarine forces of the Black Sea Fleet should be 12-15 of
non-atomic submarines. This will effectively solve all problems.
Almaz-Antey Unveils S-350E Vityaz Air Defense System
The Russian company Almaz Antey introduced today the newest air
defense system from Russia, the S-350E . The new system was displayed
today for the first time in public at the MAKS 2013 airshow. The photos on this page were posted by Bill Sweetman of Aviation Week. “S-350 Vityaz is a highly mobile system, smaller than the S-400,
but using that system’s 9M96E2 missile” sweetman posted in the Ares
blog. The system is carried in three modules – the 50K6E command post,
the 50N6E radar (photo below) and the 12-round 50P6E launcher (shown
above). A single command post can control two radars and up to eight
launchers, and engage up to 16 aircraft or 12 missiles at a time.
The Vityaz (50R6) system developed by Almaz-Antey is expected to replace the earliest variants of the S-300 family, namely S-300PS and PMU PS-1A to be phased out of service by 2015. Early deployment of Vityraz systems could begin next year, if testing proceeds as planned. The S-350 was unveiled in June 2013 at the company’s Obukhov State Plant in St. Petersburg and. According to Almaz Antey president, Vladislav Menshikov, the new system is expected to be ready for testing in the fall of 2013.
The system boasts advanced all-aspect phased array radar, a new mobile command post and a launcher carrying 12 vertical-launch missiles, which will use a variant of the 9M96 active radar homing missile. Similar missiles are used by the S-400, the newer generation of the S-300, which is currently being deployed in Russia and offered for export.
A unique feature introduced with Vityaz launchers is the capability fire short-range missiles, in addition to the medium-long range capability of the 9M96. The shorter range missile is likely to be a variant of the 9M100. According to some analysts, the range of the new system will likely be 30-120km. According to these analysts, the system would evolve to offer air defense with some limited tactical anti-missile capabilities. Moscow aims to create a multi-layered grid to cover Russia’s airspace, defending against threats ranging from drones, to conventional manned aircraft, to cruise and ballistic missiles. Such system could employ S-500, S-400, S-300E, as well as the shorter-range Pantsir systems.
The S-350E is based partially on the design of the South Korean KM-SAM Chun Koong system which Almaz-Antey helped designed. The Russian company developed three radar units for the KM-SAM, and is also believed to have helped the Korean missile manufacturer design the MK-SAM effectors. The Russian military closely followed the Korean development and in 2007 decided to back the development of a Russian derivative that eventually evolved into the Vityraz system.
The Russian MOD plans to buy at least 30 Vityaz systems before 2020, following the completion of the developmental testing.
Source: http://defense-update.com/20130827_vityaz.html
First Project 11356 frigate Admiral Grigorovich Launched
The Admiral
Grigorovich was laid down in December 2010. Four more ships of the same
class are in various stages of construction at the shipyard. All six
frigates will be delivered to the Black Sea Fleet between 2014 and 2017
under two contracts with the Defense Ministry. The Project 11356 frigates, displacing 3,850 tons, are designed for
anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare as well as for air defense missions,
operating both independently or as part of convoys and naval task forces. The frigates
are armed with an eight-cell launcher for Kalibr and Klub (3M54E) anti-ship
and surface-to-surface missiles, a 100-mm main gun, Kashtan gun/missile
close-in air defense systems, Shtil vertical-launch air defense missile
systems, two torpedo tubes, an anti-submarine rocket system and a Ka-28
or Ka-31 helicopter, according to defense industry sites globalsecurity.org
and rusnavy.com. Deputy
commander of the Russian navy, Rear Admiral Viktor Bursuk, said Friday
that the vessels of this class are ideal for operations in the Black Sea
or in the Mediterranean, where Russia maintains a permanent naval task
force. Bursuk added that these ships could also be used for anti-piracy missions
in the Gulf of Aden, between Somalia and Yemen.
Source: http://navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/year-2014
Armenian killed in Donetsk region hailed as hero by pro-Russia
protesters
The death of a young ethnic Armenian in Ukraine amid escalating tensions
in the eastern regions of the country has raised more concerns in
Yerevan about the fate of compatriots living in this former Soviet
country engulfed in civil strife.
By a twist of fate, 29-year-old Ruben Avanesyan, who was killed during clashes in Slavyansk, Donetsk region, on April 13, became the first victim on the side of those opposed to the new government in Kyiv. In January, Serhiy Nihoyan, a 20-year-old ethnic Armenian from Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, was shot dead during a protest in the streets of Kyiv, becoming one of the first victims among Euromaidan supporters and, in fact, an icon in the struggle against the government of Viktor Yanukovych that led to a change of power in late February.
The situation in Ukraine more and more reminds of a civil war and many do not exclude that it will lead to the partition of the country. The Russian and Russian-speaking population of the country’s eastern and southern regions, not without the support of Moscow, are trying to achieve federalization of the country and get an opportunity to join Russia.
Armenians living in Ukraine are largely among the “Russian-speaking” citizens of the country. Their number, according to official data, reaches 100,000, however, according to unofficial estimates, there could be as many as 600,000 Armenians living in Ukraine today, among them both citizens and non-citizens.
Historically, Armenians aren’t strangers in Ukraine either as they used to live in this part of the world still before the emergence of Kievan Rus. Armenians have also lived for centuries in Crimea, the southernmost region of Ukraine that declared its secession and joining Russia last month.
Armenians living there along with the rest of the population also, in fact, voted in a referendum for acceding to Russia. The Armenian community of Crimea tried to remain neutral and not become the target of one side or another in the civil conflict in Ukraine.
But the latest developments prompt that it will become increasingly difficult for Armenians to remain neutral. Avanesyan, who was allegedly killed by ultranationalists as he delivered “humanitarian supplies” to rebels in Slavyansk, was proclaimed a hero by supporters of Ukraine’s federalization. Nihoyan, who had lost his life for Ukraine’s European orientation, was also included in the so-called Heaven’s Hundred, a list of killed Euromaidan supporters revered as heroes in western and central Ukraine today.
The Armenian community in Ukraine is apparently going through hard times. Armenians tend not to talk to reporters, but in private conversations to the question of whether they would like to live as part of Ukraine or Russia, many in eastern regions of the country acknowledge that the living standards in Russia are higher today. This is perhaps the main motivation of Armenians who are involved in the unrest in eastern Ukraine on the side of those advocating federalization.
But there is another factor – the position of Armenia. Yerevan is considered to be the most loyal ally of Russia and its “extra vote” at international instances. Armenia was among a dozen countries that voted against the UN General Assembly resolution that reaffirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and condemned the annexation of Crimea by Russia. This stance at the UN as well as earlier remarks by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan regarding the “right of self-determination” of Crimea caused a diplomatic protest from Kyiv that recalled its ambassador from Yerevan. But in Ukraine itself there seems to be no backlash yet against the local Armenian community.
By a twist of fate, 29-year-old Ruben Avanesyan, who was killed during clashes in Slavyansk, Donetsk region, on April 13, became the first victim on the side of those opposed to the new government in Kyiv. In January, Serhiy Nihoyan, a 20-year-old ethnic Armenian from Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, was shot dead during a protest in the streets of Kyiv, becoming one of the first victims among Euromaidan supporters and, in fact, an icon in the struggle against the government of Viktor Yanukovych that led to a change of power in late February.
The situation in Ukraine more and more reminds of a civil war and many do not exclude that it will lead to the partition of the country. The Russian and Russian-speaking population of the country’s eastern and southern regions, not without the support of Moscow, are trying to achieve federalization of the country and get an opportunity to join Russia.
Armenians living in Ukraine are largely among the “Russian-speaking” citizens of the country. Their number, according to official data, reaches 100,000, however, according to unofficial estimates, there could be as many as 600,000 Armenians living in Ukraine today, among them both citizens and non-citizens.
Historically, Armenians aren’t strangers in Ukraine either as they used to live in this part of the world still before the emergence of Kievan Rus. Armenians have also lived for centuries in Crimea, the southernmost region of Ukraine that declared its secession and joining Russia last month.
Armenians living there along with the rest of the population also, in fact, voted in a referendum for acceding to Russia. The Armenian community of Crimea tried to remain neutral and not become the target of one side or another in the civil conflict in Ukraine.
But the latest developments prompt that it will become increasingly difficult for Armenians to remain neutral. Avanesyan, who was allegedly killed by ultranationalists as he delivered “humanitarian supplies” to rebels in Slavyansk, was proclaimed a hero by supporters of Ukraine’s federalization. Nihoyan, who had lost his life for Ukraine’s European orientation, was also included in the so-called Heaven’s Hundred, a list of killed Euromaidan supporters revered as heroes in western and central Ukraine today.
The Armenian community in Ukraine is apparently going through hard times. Armenians tend not to talk to reporters, but in private conversations to the question of whether they would like to live as part of Ukraine or Russia, many in eastern regions of the country acknowledge that the living standards in Russia are higher today. This is perhaps the main motivation of Armenians who are involved in the unrest in eastern Ukraine on the side of those advocating federalization.
But there is another factor – the position of Armenia. Yerevan is considered to be the most loyal ally of Russia and its “extra vote” at international instances. Armenia was among a dozen countries that voted against the UN General Assembly resolution that reaffirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and condemned the annexation of Crimea by Russia. This stance at the UN as well as earlier remarks by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan regarding the “right of self-determination” of Crimea caused a diplomatic protest from Kyiv that recalled its ambassador from Yerevan. But in Ukraine itself there seems to be no backlash yet against the local Armenian community.
Source: http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/53654/armenia_ukraine_situation_analysis
Some 80 percent of Armenians endorse Russia’s annexation of Crimea, survey
About 80% of respondents embraced by a public opinion survey conducted by Gallup International Association in Armenia, endorsed Russia’s decision to annex Crimea. The findings of the survey were made public today by Aram Navasardyan, the chairman of the Armenian Marketing Association, which is the official representative of Gallup International Association in Armenia. The study was conducted on 8-18 April in the format of personal interviews in all regions of Armenia and administrative districts of Yerevan involving 1,067 men and women of different ages. Also 73% of respondents said that Armenia should officially recognize Crimea as Russian territory. About 92% of respondents were informed about developments in Ukraine and 77% disapproved them. "The findings reflect Armenians’ sentiments concerning the peoples’ rights to expression of their will, “ said Navasardyan. He said a similar problem exists in Armenia – it is the Karabakh conflict. "And although political analysts cite various reasons to prove similarities or differences between these two issues, ordinary people draw clear parallels between the two issues”, said Navasardyan.
Source: http://arka.am/en/news/society/some_80_percent_of_armenians_endorse_russia_s_annexation_of_crimea_survey
Intelligence Chair Fears Putin Has New Target: Armenia
n
an appearance on Fox News this morning, House Intelligence Committee
Chairman Mike Rogers (R-MI) reported that in addition to massing tens of
thousands of troops on the eastern border of Ukraine, Russia is
building up its military forces in the separatist Georgian region of
South Ossetia. Rogers suggested that Russian president Vladimir Putin is
considering an invasion of both Georgia and Armenia, as part of an
effort to create an overland link between Russia and Iran.
“They are moving some of their most advanced equipment into South Ossetia,” said Rogers. “There is no reason to do that. The Georgian army really poses no threat. That’s certainly concerning.”
Related: Russia’s Putin Calls Obama to Discuss U.S. Proposal on Ukraine
Rogers later added, “I would ask why is he moving the equipment that he is into South Ossetia up in Georgia, which makes really makes no sense other than they are contemplating maybe using those armor columns to drive through Georgia down to Armenia to create a land bridge to Iran.”
Rogers, who this week announced that he would not seek reelection in November, recently returned from a trip to Georgia and Ukraine. In Georgia, according to Intelligence Committee staff, he personally saw camps being set up by the Russian military. Rogers also met with the countries’ defense ministers and intelligence officials.
It would not be surprising for Russia to seek closer ties with Iran, nor for Putin to seek a direct trade route between the two nations. Both are, to different degrees, suffering under international sanctions – sanctions that may soon tighten on Russia as a result of its invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
The news of a Russian build-up in South Ossetia comes as tens of thousands of Russian combat troops remain massed on the eastern border of Ukraine.
Related: Stopping Putin with U.S. Gas Exports is Full of Hot Air
Putin telephoned president Obama over the weekend, and the two had a discussion that the White House characterized as Russia seeking to deescalate the situation in Ukraine through diplomatic means. Russian officials described the conversation as Putin alleging further violations of the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Putin has claimed that the Russian invasion and speedy annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was justified because it was done to protect ethnic Russians in that region.
The upshot of the call was that Secretary John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to Paris to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.
While some speculated that Putin made the call as part of an effort to find a “way out” of the tense situation in the Ukraine, Rogers summarily dismissed that possibility.
Related: Russia Criticizes UN Resolution Condemning Crimea’s Secession
“He is absolutely not looking for a way out,” Rogers said.
Asked about the troop build-up on the Ukrainian border, Rogers said, “We see tens of thousands and it is not just the number of troops, it’s the kind of troops and the kinds of configuration. What units are on that border and what could they accomplish. They have everything they need already I believe on that eastern border to go into Ukraine if they decide they want to do it.”
According to Rogers, intelligence suggests that Putin’s primary goal in Ukraine is most likely to create a “land bridge” from Crimea to the breakaway Transinistria region of Moldova, to the west, which has been seeking a connection to the Russian Federation similar to the annexation of Crimea.
By taking control of the southern part of Ukraine, Rogers said, Putin would secure a source of fresh water for the Crimean peninsula as well as an overland connection to Transinistria.
Related: U.S. Bans Licenses for Military Exports to Russia
Asked if there is reason to believe that Russia would move into eastern Ukraine as well, Rogers did not discount the possibility, saying that Russia currently has special forces teams and intelligence agenst working to foment unrest in the eastern Ukraine, which Russia could eventually use as a pretext for invasion.
Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, agreed that Putin looks poised to enter Ukraine.
“There are 40-plus thousand troops. They are staged in various areas. To people who watch this, it looks like an invasion force,” she said. “Putin has said it’s an exercise. Leaves a question mark.”
Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kisliyak dismissed the possibility that Russia would ever retreat from Crimea, asserting that it is now part of Russia.
“We are now in the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. “There was an expressed will of the people of Crimea to be part of the Russian Federation.”
However, asked if Russia was planning to invade the rest of Ukraine, he said, “We have no intent and no interest in crossing the border. We have our forces conducting exercises in the territory of the Russian Federation.”
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/03/30/Intelligence-Chair-Fears-Putin-Has-New-Target-Armenia#sthash.bZe8VpWG.dpuf
“They are moving some of their most advanced equipment into South Ossetia,” said Rogers. “There is no reason to do that. The Georgian army really poses no threat. That’s certainly concerning.”
Related: Russia’s Putin Calls Obama to Discuss U.S. Proposal on Ukraine
Rogers later added, “I would ask why is he moving the equipment that he is into South Ossetia up in Georgia, which makes really makes no sense other than they are contemplating maybe using those armor columns to drive through Georgia down to Armenia to create a land bridge to Iran.”
Rogers, who this week announced that he would not seek reelection in November, recently returned from a trip to Georgia and Ukraine. In Georgia, according to Intelligence Committee staff, he personally saw camps being set up by the Russian military. Rogers also met with the countries’ defense ministers and intelligence officials.
It would not be surprising for Russia to seek closer ties with Iran, nor for Putin to seek a direct trade route between the two nations. Both are, to different degrees, suffering under international sanctions – sanctions that may soon tighten on Russia as a result of its invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
The news of a Russian build-up in South Ossetia comes as tens of thousands of Russian combat troops remain massed on the eastern border of Ukraine.
Related: Stopping Putin with U.S. Gas Exports is Full of Hot Air
Putin telephoned president Obama over the weekend, and the two had a discussion that the White House characterized as Russia seeking to deescalate the situation in Ukraine through diplomatic means. Russian officials described the conversation as Putin alleging further violations of the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Putin has claimed that the Russian invasion and speedy annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was justified because it was done to protect ethnic Russians in that region.
The upshot of the call was that Secretary John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to Paris to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.
While some speculated that Putin made the call as part of an effort to find a “way out” of the tense situation in the Ukraine, Rogers summarily dismissed that possibility.
Related: Russia Criticizes UN Resolution Condemning Crimea’s Secession
“He is absolutely not looking for a way out,” Rogers said.
Asked about the troop build-up on the Ukrainian border, Rogers said, “We see tens of thousands and it is not just the number of troops, it’s the kind of troops and the kinds of configuration. What units are on that border and what could they accomplish. They have everything they need already I believe on that eastern border to go into Ukraine if they decide they want to do it.”
According to Rogers, intelligence suggests that Putin’s primary goal in Ukraine is most likely to create a “land bridge” from Crimea to the breakaway Transinistria region of Moldova, to the west, which has been seeking a connection to the Russian Federation similar to the annexation of Crimea.
By taking control of the southern part of Ukraine, Rogers said, Putin would secure a source of fresh water for the Crimean peninsula as well as an overland connection to Transinistria.
Related: U.S. Bans Licenses for Military Exports to Russia
Asked if there is reason to believe that Russia would move into eastern Ukraine as well, Rogers did not discount the possibility, saying that Russia currently has special forces teams and intelligence agenst working to foment unrest in the eastern Ukraine, which Russia could eventually use as a pretext for invasion.
Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, agreed that Putin looks poised to enter Ukraine.
“There are 40-plus thousand troops. They are staged in various areas. To people who watch this, it looks like an invasion force,” she said. “Putin has said it’s an exercise. Leaves a question mark.”
Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kisliyak dismissed the possibility that Russia would ever retreat from Crimea, asserting that it is now part of Russia.
“We are now in the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. “There was an expressed will of the people of Crimea to be part of the Russian Federation.”
However, asked if Russia was planning to invade the rest of Ukraine, he said, “We have no intent and no interest in crossing the border. We have our forces conducting exercises in the territory of the Russian Federation.”
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/03/30/Intelligence-Chair-Fears-Putin-Has-New-Target-Armenia#sthash.bZe8VpWG.dpuf
n
an appearance on Fox News this morning, House Intelligence Committee
Chairman Mike Rogers (R-MI) reported that in addition to massing tens of
thousands of troops on the eastern border of Ukraine, Russia is
building up its military forces in the separatist Georgian region of
South Ossetia. Rogers suggested that Russian president Vladimir Putin is
considering an invasion of both Georgia and Armenia, as part of an
effort to create an overland link between Russia and Iran.
“They are moving some of their most advanced equipment into South Ossetia,” said Rogers. “There is no reason to do that. The Georgian army really poses no threat. That’s certainly concerning.”
Related: Russia’s Putin Calls Obama to Discuss U.S. Proposal on Ukraine
Rogers later added, “I would ask why is he moving the equipment that he is into South Ossetia up in Georgia, which makes really makes no sense other than they are contemplating maybe using those armor columns to drive through Georgia down to Armenia to create a land bridge to Iran.”
Rogers, who this week announced that he would not seek reelection in November, recently returned from a trip to Georgia and Ukraine. In Georgia, according to Intelligence Committee staff, he personally saw camps being set up by the Russian military. Rogers also met with the countries’ defense ministers and intelligence officials.
It would not be surprising for Russia to seek closer ties with Iran, nor for Putin to seek a direct trade route between the two nations. Both are, to different degrees, suffering under international sanctions – sanctions that may soon tighten on Russia as a result of its invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
The news of a Russian build-up in South Ossetia comes as tens of thousands of Russian combat troops remain massed on the eastern border of Ukraine.
Related: Stopping Putin with U.S. Gas Exports is Full of Hot Air
Putin telephoned president Obama over the weekend, and the two had a discussion that the White House characterized as Russia seeking to deescalate the situation in Ukraine through diplomatic means. Russian officials described the conversation as Putin alleging further violations of the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Putin has claimed that the Russian invasion and speedy annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was justified because it was done to protect ethnic Russians in that region.
The upshot of the call was that Secretary John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to Paris to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.
While some speculated that Putin made the call as part of an effort to find a “way out” of the tense situation in the Ukraine, Rogers summarily dismissed that possibility.
Related: Russia Criticizes UN Resolution Condemning Crimea’s Secession
“He is absolutely not looking for a way out,” Rogers said.
Asked about the troop build-up on the Ukrainian border, Rogers said, “We see tens of thousands and it is not just the number of troops, it’s the kind of troops and the kinds of configuration. What units are on that border and what could they accomplish. They have everything they need already I believe on that eastern border to go into Ukraine if they decide they want to do it.”
According to Rogers, intelligence suggests that Putin’s primary goal in Ukraine is most likely to create a “land bridge” from Crimea to the breakaway Transinistria region of Moldova, to the west, which has been seeking a connection to the Russian Federation similar to the annexation of Crimea.
By taking control of the southern part of Ukraine, Rogers said, Putin would secure a source of fresh water for the Crimean peninsula as well as an overland connection to Transinistria.
Related: U.S. Bans Licenses for Military Exports to Russia
Asked if there is reason to believe that Russia would move into eastern Ukraine as well, Rogers did not discount the possibility, saying that Russia currently has special forces teams and intelligence agenst working to foment unrest in the eastern Ukraine, which Russia could eventually use as a pretext for invasion.
Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, agreed that Putin looks poised to enter Ukraine.
“There are 40-plus thousand troops. They are staged in various areas. To people who watch this, it looks like an invasion force,” she said. “Putin has said it’s an exercise. Leaves a question mark.”
Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kisliyak dismissed the possibility that Russia would ever retreat from Crimea, asserting that it is now part of Russia.
“We are now in the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. “There was an expressed will of the people of Crimea to be part of the Russian Federation.”
However, asked if Russia was planning to invade the rest of Ukraine, he said, “We have no intent and no interest in crossing the border. We have our forces conducting exercises in the territory of the Russian Federation.”
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/03/30/Intelligence-Chair-Fears-Putin-Has-New-Target-Armenia#sthash.bZe8VpWG.dpuf
“They are moving some of their most advanced equipment into South Ossetia,” said Rogers. “There is no reason to do that. The Georgian army really poses no threat. That’s certainly concerning.”
Related: Russia’s Putin Calls Obama to Discuss U.S. Proposal on Ukraine
Rogers later added, “I would ask why is he moving the equipment that he is into South Ossetia up in Georgia, which makes really makes no sense other than they are contemplating maybe using those armor columns to drive through Georgia down to Armenia to create a land bridge to Iran.”
Rogers, who this week announced that he would not seek reelection in November, recently returned from a trip to Georgia and Ukraine. In Georgia, according to Intelligence Committee staff, he personally saw camps being set up by the Russian military. Rogers also met with the countries’ defense ministers and intelligence officials.
It would not be surprising for Russia to seek closer ties with Iran, nor for Putin to seek a direct trade route between the two nations. Both are, to different degrees, suffering under international sanctions – sanctions that may soon tighten on Russia as a result of its invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
The news of a Russian build-up in South Ossetia comes as tens of thousands of Russian combat troops remain massed on the eastern border of Ukraine.
Related: Stopping Putin with U.S. Gas Exports is Full of Hot Air
Putin telephoned president Obama over the weekend, and the two had a discussion that the White House characterized as Russia seeking to deescalate the situation in Ukraine through diplomatic means. Russian officials described the conversation as Putin alleging further violations of the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Putin has claimed that the Russian invasion and speedy annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was justified because it was done to protect ethnic Russians in that region.
The upshot of the call was that Secretary John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to Paris to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.
While some speculated that Putin made the call as part of an effort to find a “way out” of the tense situation in the Ukraine, Rogers summarily dismissed that possibility.
Related: Russia Criticizes UN Resolution Condemning Crimea’s Secession
“He is absolutely not looking for a way out,” Rogers said.
Asked about the troop build-up on the Ukrainian border, Rogers said, “We see tens of thousands and it is not just the number of troops, it’s the kind of troops and the kinds of configuration. What units are on that border and what could they accomplish. They have everything they need already I believe on that eastern border to go into Ukraine if they decide they want to do it.”
According to Rogers, intelligence suggests that Putin’s primary goal in Ukraine is most likely to create a “land bridge” from Crimea to the breakaway Transinistria region of Moldova, to the west, which has been seeking a connection to the Russian Federation similar to the annexation of Crimea.
By taking control of the southern part of Ukraine, Rogers said, Putin would secure a source of fresh water for the Crimean peninsula as well as an overland connection to Transinistria.
Related: U.S. Bans Licenses for Military Exports to Russia
Asked if there is reason to believe that Russia would move into eastern Ukraine as well, Rogers did not discount the possibility, saying that Russia currently has special forces teams and intelligence agenst working to foment unrest in the eastern Ukraine, which Russia could eventually use as a pretext for invasion.
Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, agreed that Putin looks poised to enter Ukraine.
“There are 40-plus thousand troops. They are staged in various areas. To people who watch this, it looks like an invasion force,” she said. “Putin has said it’s an exercise. Leaves a question mark.”
Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kisliyak dismissed the possibility that Russia would ever retreat from Crimea, asserting that it is now part of Russia.
“We are now in the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. “There was an expressed will of the people of Crimea to be part of the Russian Federation.”
However, asked if Russia was planning to invade the rest of Ukraine, he said, “We have no intent and no interest in crossing the border. We have our forces conducting exercises in the territory of the Russian Federation.”
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/03/30/Intelligence-Chair-Fears-Putin-Has-New-Target-Armenia#sthash.bZe8VpWG.dpuf
In
an appearance on Fox News this morning, House Intelligence Committee
Chairman Mike Rogers (R-MI) reported that in addition to massing tens of
thousands of troops on the eastern border of Ukraine, Russia is
building up its military forces in the separatist Georgian region of
South Ossetia. Rogers suggested that Russian president Vladimir Putin is
considering an invasion of both Georgia and Armenia, as part of an
effort to create an overland link between Russia and Iran.
“They are moving some of their most advanced equipment into South Ossetia,” said Rogers. “There is no reason to do that. The Georgian army really poses no threat. That’s certainly concerning.”
Rogers later added, “I would ask why is he moving the equipment that he is into South Ossetia up in Georgia, which makes really makes no sense other than they are contemplating maybe using those armor columns to drive through Georgia down to Armenia to create a land bridge to Iran.”
Rogers, who this week announced that he would not seek reelection in November, recently returned from a trip to Georgia and Ukraine. In Georgia, according to Intelligence Committee staff, he personally saw camps being set up by the Russian military. Rogers also met with the countries’ defense ministers and intelligence officials. It would not be surprising for Russia to seek closer ties with Iran, nor for Putin to seek a direct trade route between the two nations. Both are, to different degrees, suffering under international sanctions – sanctions that may soon tighten on Russia as a result of its invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
The news of a Russian build-up in South Ossetia comes as tens of thousands of Russian combat troops remain massed on the eastern border of Ukraine. Putin telephoned president Obama over the weekend, and the two had a discussion that the White House characterized as Russia seeking to deescalate the situation in Ukraine through diplomatic means. Russian officials described the conversation as Putin alleging further violations of the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Putin has claimed that the Russian invasion and speedy annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was justified because it was done to protect ethnic Russians in that region. The upshot of the call was that Secretary John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to Paris to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. While some speculated that Putin made the call as part of an effort to find a “way out” of the tense situation in the Ukraine, Rogers summarily dismissed that possibility.
“He is absolutely not looking for a way out,” Rogers said. Asked about the troop build-up on the Ukrainian border, Rogers said, “We see tens of thousands and it is not just the number of troops, it’s the kind of troops and the kinds of configuration. What units are on that border and what could they accomplish. They have everything they need already I believe on that eastern border to go into Ukraine if they decide they want to do it.”
According to Rogers, intelligence suggests that Putin’s primary goal in Ukraine is most likely to create a “land bridge” from Crimea to the breakaway Transinistria region of Moldova, to the west, which has been seeking a connection to the Russian Federation similar to the annexation of Crimea. By taking control of the southern part of Ukraine, Rogers said, Putin would secure a source of fresh water for the Crimean peninsula as well as an overland connection to Transinistria.
Asked if there is reason to believe that Russia would move into eastern Ukraine as well, Rogers did not discount the possibility, saying that Russia currently has special forces teams and intelligence agents working to foment unrest in the eastern Ukraine, which Russia could eventually use as a pretext for invasion. Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, agreed that Putin looks poised to enter Ukraine.
“There are 40-plus thousand troops. They are staged in various areas. To people who watch this, it looks like an invasion force,” she said. “Putin has said it’s an exercise. Leaves a question mark.” Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kisliyak dismissed the possibility that Russia would ever retreat from Crimea, asserting that it is now part of Russia. "We are now in the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. “There was an expressed will of the people of Crimea to be part of the Russian Federation.”
However, asked if Russia was planning to invade the rest of Ukraine, he said, “We have no intent and no interest in crossing the border. We have our forces conducting exercises in the territory of the Russian Federation.”
“They are moving some of their most advanced equipment into South Ossetia,” said Rogers. “There is no reason to do that. The Georgian army really poses no threat. That’s certainly concerning.”
Rogers later added, “I would ask why is he moving the equipment that he is into South Ossetia up in Georgia, which makes really makes no sense other than they are contemplating maybe using those armor columns to drive through Georgia down to Armenia to create a land bridge to Iran.”
Rogers, who this week announced that he would not seek reelection in November, recently returned from a trip to Georgia and Ukraine. In Georgia, according to Intelligence Committee staff, he personally saw camps being set up by the Russian military. Rogers also met with the countries’ defense ministers and intelligence officials. It would not be surprising for Russia to seek closer ties with Iran, nor for Putin to seek a direct trade route between the two nations. Both are, to different degrees, suffering under international sanctions – sanctions that may soon tighten on Russia as a result of its invasion of the Crimean peninsula.
The news of a Russian build-up in South Ossetia comes as tens of thousands of Russian combat troops remain massed on the eastern border of Ukraine. Putin telephoned president Obama over the weekend, and the two had a discussion that the White House characterized as Russia seeking to deescalate the situation in Ukraine through diplomatic means. Russian officials described the conversation as Putin alleging further violations of the rights of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Putin has claimed that the Russian invasion and speedy annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was justified because it was done to protect ethnic Russians in that region. The upshot of the call was that Secretary John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to Paris to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. While some speculated that Putin made the call as part of an effort to find a “way out” of the tense situation in the Ukraine, Rogers summarily dismissed that possibility.
“He is absolutely not looking for a way out,” Rogers said. Asked about the troop build-up on the Ukrainian border, Rogers said, “We see tens of thousands and it is not just the number of troops, it’s the kind of troops and the kinds of configuration. What units are on that border and what could they accomplish. They have everything they need already I believe on that eastern border to go into Ukraine if they decide they want to do it.”
According to Rogers, intelligence suggests that Putin’s primary goal in Ukraine is most likely to create a “land bridge” from Crimea to the breakaway Transinistria region of Moldova, to the west, which has been seeking a connection to the Russian Federation similar to the annexation of Crimea. By taking control of the southern part of Ukraine, Rogers said, Putin would secure a source of fresh water for the Crimean peninsula as well as an overland connection to Transinistria.
Asked if there is reason to believe that Russia would move into eastern Ukraine as well, Rogers did not discount the possibility, saying that Russia currently has special forces teams and intelligence agents working to foment unrest in the eastern Ukraine, which Russia could eventually use as a pretext for invasion. Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, agreed that Putin looks poised to enter Ukraine.
“There are 40-plus thousand troops. They are staged in various areas. To people who watch this, it looks like an invasion force,” she said. “Putin has said it’s an exercise. Leaves a question mark.” Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kisliyak dismissed the possibility that Russia would ever retreat from Crimea, asserting that it is now part of Russia. "We are now in the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. “There was an expressed will of the people of Crimea to be part of the Russian Federation.”
However, asked if Russia was planning to invade the rest of Ukraine, he said, “We have no intent and no interest in crossing the border. We have our forces conducting exercises in the territory of the Russian Federation.”
Source: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/03/30/Intelligence-Chair-Fears-Putin-Has-New-Target-Armenia#sthash.bZe8VpWG.dpuf
Georgia wary of Russia 'expansion plans'
As Georgians drive along their
central east-west highway at night, they can see the lights of a Russian
military base within South Ossetia's de facto line of control. It is a
constant reminder of a clear and present threat, and their military
defeat in 2008 by Russia. After Crimea especially, many worry that
Russia once again is looking to expand its borders, or remind its
neighbours that orientating themselves to the West could have negative
consequences.
The rules of the game seem to have changed. How far is Russia now willing to go to turn countries like Georgia back from their path of Euro-Atlantic integration with NATO and the EU? Key events are happening this year including the expected signing of Georgia's EU Association Agreement and NATO meetings, which may determine Georgia's future membership status.
Next hotspot
Against this backdrop, Georgians are jumpy. Mindful of their country's inter-ethnic makeup, some believe Samtskhe-Javakheti could be the next hotspot, because of notions that ethnic Armenians there cannot be trusted. Despite any clear evidence, there are rumours that many ethnic Armenians hold Russian passports.
Like the rest of Georgia, Samtskhe-Javakheti suffers from poverty and unemployment. The difference is that here, there is an ethnic Armenian majority. Many don't speak Georgian, and not all of them feel connected to Georgian wider society. Ideas about preserving Armenian culture and language have widespread appeal. Ethnic Armenians have so far not seen the benefits of learning the Georgian language, at least in majority Armenian towns.
Javakheti saw political disturbances in the 2000s. But nationalist Armenian activists lost their momentum, were jailed, or brought into the Georgian political fold. A lot of popular frustration was based around the closure of an important source of support for the local economy - a Russian base in Samtskhe-Javakheti itself.
That also helps to explain in part why ethnic Armenians are today more pro-Russian in their outlook. Many travel to Russia for work, sending home vital remittances to support their families. And why shouldn't ethnic Armenians see Russia in a positive light? Russia, unlike Georgia, is a source of employment, and opportunity.
Splitting Georgia in half
So this is how the 'Russian' threat goes: Given the right excuse - i.e. inter-ethnic strife or instability that could emanate from existing antagonisms (for instance between two powerful political adversaries: the Georgian and Armenian Orthodox Churches), Russian forces would not have to travel far to link up 'pro-Russian' Samtskhe-Javakheti with South Ossetia, and split Georgia in half.
To Samtskhe-Javakheti's south lies Armenia, Russia's ally. Gyumri in Armenia is home to a strategic Russian military base. Russia provided material support to the Armenians in their war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh and last year the Armenian government pulled out of trade and association negotiations with the EU and announced it would join Putin's Eurasian Economic Union.
To suggest that new trouble is looming could be dangerous and downright mistaken. Most analysts agree that Armenia is unlikely to support instability in Javakheti. Though Armenia has a working relationship with Russia, one of the last things the country needs is a conflict next door. The Georgian-Armenian border is its sole route to the outside world. (The Turkish and Azeri sides are closed).
Georgia's fear of insecurity is understandable given all that it has already been through with Russia, and it is a sign that what has happened in Ukraine is having wide-reaching and unexpected consequences. Some media outlets have already played up threats to Georgian territorial integrity. Georgian NGOs released a statement criticising this report, which implied that Georgia could lose the Javakheti region to Turkish interests. Domestic fears may do more to antagonise inter-ethnic relations than any cynical ploy from the Kremlin.
The rules of the game seem to have changed. How far is Russia now willing to go to turn countries like Georgia back from their path of Euro-Atlantic integration with NATO and the EU? Key events are happening this year including the expected signing of Georgia's EU Association Agreement and NATO meetings, which may determine Georgia's future membership status.
Next hotspot
Against this backdrop, Georgians are jumpy. Mindful of their country's inter-ethnic makeup, some believe Samtskhe-Javakheti could be the next hotspot, because of notions that ethnic Armenians there cannot be trusted. Despite any clear evidence, there are rumours that many ethnic Armenians hold Russian passports.
Like the rest of Georgia, Samtskhe-Javakheti suffers from poverty and unemployment. The difference is that here, there is an ethnic Armenian majority. Many don't speak Georgian, and not all of them feel connected to Georgian wider society. Ideas about preserving Armenian culture and language have widespread appeal. Ethnic Armenians have so far not seen the benefits of learning the Georgian language, at least in majority Armenian towns.
Javakheti saw political disturbances in the 2000s. But nationalist Armenian activists lost their momentum, were jailed, or brought into the Georgian political fold. A lot of popular frustration was based around the closure of an important source of support for the local economy - a Russian base in Samtskhe-Javakheti itself.
That also helps to explain in part why ethnic Armenians are today more pro-Russian in their outlook. Many travel to Russia for work, sending home vital remittances to support their families. And why shouldn't ethnic Armenians see Russia in a positive light? Russia, unlike Georgia, is a source of employment, and opportunity.
Splitting Georgia in half
So this is how the 'Russian' threat goes: Given the right excuse - i.e. inter-ethnic strife or instability that could emanate from existing antagonisms (for instance between two powerful political adversaries: the Georgian and Armenian Orthodox Churches), Russian forces would not have to travel far to link up 'pro-Russian' Samtskhe-Javakheti with South Ossetia, and split Georgia in half.
To Samtskhe-Javakheti's south lies Armenia, Russia's ally. Gyumri in Armenia is home to a strategic Russian military base. Russia provided material support to the Armenians in their war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh and last year the Armenian government pulled out of trade and association negotiations with the EU and announced it would join Putin's Eurasian Economic Union.
To suggest that new trouble is looming could be dangerous and downright mistaken. Most analysts agree that Armenia is unlikely to support instability in Javakheti. Though Armenia has a working relationship with Russia, one of the last things the country needs is a conflict next door. The Georgian-Armenian border is its sole route to the outside world. (The Turkish and Azeri sides are closed).
Georgia's fear of insecurity is understandable given all that it has already been through with Russia, and it is a sign that what has happened in Ukraine is having wide-reaching and unexpected consequences. Some media outlets have already played up threats to Georgian territorial integrity. Georgian NGOs released a statement criticising this report, which implied that Georgia could lose the Javakheti region to Turkish interests. Domestic fears may do more to antagonise inter-ethnic relations than any cynical ploy from the Kremlin.
Putin Stirs Angst in Azerbaijan
As Vladimir Putin completes Russia's annexation of Crimea, Azerbaijan
is worried that his next move will be to shift his attention southward. The Caspian Sea nation, the only westward route for central Asian oil
and gas that bypasses Russia, is finding itself hemmed in by Putin's
regional ambitions. Russian troops are already stationed in neighboring
Georgia and Armenia and just four months ago, Putin said Russia will
"never leave" the region.
That's stirring angst in a nation that was captured by Soviet Russia
in 1920. Azerbaijan, the third-largest ex-Soviet oil producer, has spent
the past two decades trying to establish itself as an alternative gas
source to Europe. Home to the Shah Deniz field, in December the country
struck a 45-billion-dollar deal with a BP-led group.
"If the West doesn't do anything to stop Russia, they will be
emboldened to take back Azerbaijan by force as they did a hundred years
ago," said Zahir Rahimov, a 39-year-old resident of Baku, referring to
the Bolshevik takeover.
Officials already complain about feeling the Kremlin's pressure. The
push from Moscow to join Putin's new customs union, a project he wants
to rival the European Union, is similar to the squeeze put on Ukraine,
according to Siyavus Novruzov, a senior member of the ruling New
Azerbaijan Party.
Putin is extending Russia's reach as he tries to rebuild the prestige
it lost after the end of the Cold War. To Azerbaijan's west, Russia has
kept a base with about 4,000 soldiers in Armenia since a cease-fire in
the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 1994. In Georgia to the northwest, Putin
left forces stationed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia after a 2008 war.
"As for the Trans-Caucasus region, Russia will never leave this region," Putin said on 2 December after surveying Russian troops at the base in Armenia. "On the contrary, we will make our place here even stronger. We will strengthen our position here, drawing on the best of what our forebears left us and with the support of good relations with all countries in the region, including Armenia."
While Putin hasn't directly threatened Azerbaijan and an invasion is
unlikely, his comments underscore the fact that he can use his influence
in neighboring countries to hem in Azerbaijan, which has been ruled by
the Aliyev family for four decades.
"Azerbaijan is going to be next after Ukraine," according to Arastun
Orujlu, head of the Center for East-West Studies, a research group in
the capital Baku. "Russia will step up pressure."
Azerbaijan's position is complicated by the fact that it never
courted the US and the European Union the way that ex- Soviet satellites
such as Poland and the Baltic states did. Azerbaijan hasn't applied to
join either the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or the European Union
and has instead pursued an independent foreign policy. The country has forged closer ties with Israel by buying its advanced
weapons including drones and missile systems and NATO-member Turkey,
with whom it signed an agreement on military cooperation.
The existing accord with Turkey is limited to training and arms
purchases by Azerbaijan. The nations are negotiating a broader military
deal to guarantee mutual assistance in case of an attack, Novruz
Mammadov, the head of the presidential administration's
foreign-relations department, said on the ANS television channel on
Sunday. Azebaijan's strategy of plotting a course between Russia and the EU
has left it "even more vulnerable to Russian pressure" to join the
planned Eurasian Union, Richard Kauzlarich, the US envoy in Baku in
1994-1997, told the Azeri service of Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty
March 7.
While Putin has used the simmering conflicts in the Caucasus to keep
Russia's southern neighbors "off-balance," putting at risk investments
made in energy links binding Azerbaijan with Europe, such tactics have
failed to undermine the projects, according to Matthew Bryza, the US
ambassador to Azerbaijan in 2010-2011. Even so, the country's unaligned status puts it in a precarious
position as Putin challenges the post-Cold War world order, according to
Vafa Quluzada, a former foreign policy adviser to ex-President Heydar
Aliyev, the father of current leader Ilham Aliyev.
"After Crimea, there are no longer any rules of the game for Russia,"
Quluzada, the former presidential adviser, said by phone. "It can take
unpredictable actions. Our strategic partners should bear this in mind
and take action before it's not too late."
Aliyev, who has won plaudits from the US and Europe for striking an
independent foreign policy, he hasn't been immune to international
criticism, with his government ranked as one of the most corrupt and
repressive in the world by Transparency International and Reporters
Without Borders. Dozens of activists, journalists, bloggers and other critics of
Aliyev were arrested or convicted of "bogus charges" in the 18 months
leading up to the presidential election last October, according to Human
Rights Watch.
Regardless of the human rights violations, Azerbaijan remains a
crucial energy supplier to several EU nations. Italy, which receives
Azeri crude shipments via Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, is
Azerbaijan's biggest trade partner, according to data on the State
Statistics Committee website. Germany and France come second and third, with Russia in fourth place.
Oil and gas exports made up 95 per cent of total Azeri exports last
year, according to the central bank. The 74-billion-dollar economy, the
former Soviet Union's fourth biggest after Russia, Kazakhstan and
Ukraine, grew 5.8 per cent last year and the International Monetary Fund
forecasts a 5.6 per cent expansion this year.
Russia's main lever over Azerbaijan is its sway over Armenia, which
it can use to ratchet up tension in the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, said Quluzada, the former foreign- policy adviser. That
threatens to unsettle investors such as BP, which with partners has
invested more than 40 billion dollars in energy projects in the past two
decades.
"Russia wants the cease-fire — this no-war-no-peace situation — to
exert pressure on Azerbaijan," Quluzada said. "It is also using the
situation to keep western interests under constant threat."
Armenia, backed by Russia, took over the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh
region and seven adjacent districts from Azerbaijan. Large-scale
hostilities ended with a cease-fire in 1994, with the sides yet to sign a
peace agreement.
"What's happening in Crimea today first started in Nagorno-Karabakh,"
said Asim Mollazade, a member of Azeri parliament's foreign relations
committee. "It was the same scenario with the same participants.
Azerbaijan lost 20 per cent of its territory."
Georgia, the third South Caucasus country, was routed by Russia in an
August 2008 war over the separatist province of South Ossetia in the
biggest show of force outside its borders since the Soviet breakup in
1991 until the Crimea conflict. Russia has an agreement to provide military assistance to Armenia. In
2012, troops from Russia and four ex-Soviet republics took part in
maneuvers in the country, the biggest military drills ever hosted by the
landlocked country, according to IHS Global Insight in London.
"Russia can attack Azerbaijan from three fronts: from Karabakh, from
the border in Dagestan and by sea," Quluzada said. "Russia is holding
drills in Dagestan and the Caspian Sea. It has modernised its Caspian
fleet. It's clear that Russia isn't preparing for a war with Iran. Our
strategic partners should bear this in mind and take action before it's
not too late."
While the crisis in Ukraine will further propel Azerbaijan to solidify ties with the West, it expects Russia to lash out against it in response, according to Mollazade.
"Regrettably, Russia is seeking the restoration of the former Soviet
Union through the customs union and the planned Eurasian Union," he
said.
Putin’s adviser on plans to destabilize Azerbaijan
“Russia is the guarantor of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia as well as the Karabakh. If we assume that Russia abdicates these functions, the territorial integrity of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh will not be ensured, since Russia is a proportional power, thereby, countries in the zone adjacent to Russia can maintain their territorial integrity solely due to good neighborly relations with Russia,”- an ideologue of the Putin regime, the ideologist of the United Russia Party, member of the advisory council by the State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin Alexander Dugin came up with such a sensational statement, haqqin.az reports citing the Armenian sources.
According to him, “Today Karabakh belongs to Armenia, because the Armenians have made a deal with Russia.”
In his interview, Alexander Dugin also voiced overt threats against Azerbaijan and reveals Russia’s secret plan to destabilize the situation in Azerbaijan: “Azerbaijan has Talysh and Lezgin factors. There are many other ones, the gravity of which Azerbaijan cannot even imagine. Russia has a lot of leverage to speak friendly in the language of a dialogue or a hostile language.”
The pro-Kremlin politician is vexed with Azerbaijan’s position on the territorial integrity of Ukraine: “The very fact that Baku is opposing Russia shows that Azerbaijanis challenge us like Saakashvili and the Kiev junta, and we already know how it ends… If Russia starts talking to Azerbaijan, who demonstrates the negative attitude to it, indicated in the vote in the UN General Assembly, there are other factors that Russia may resort to apart from Nagorno-Karabakh,”- Dugin stressed, adding that unlike Azerbaijan “Armenia has proved itself as a faithful friend, and we truly appreciate this, whereas Azerbaijan has unexpectedly betrayed us, that we have also taken a note of.
Will we keep silent? Surely, not. They are on the path of self-destruction,”- said one of the masterminds of Putin’s Eurasian Union.
Source: http://gulustan.info/2014/04/putins-idea-monger-on-plans-to-destabilize-situation-in-azerbaijan/
Russia’s Ace in the Hole: Iran
Tensions between Russia and the
West are hitting a new peak. And in this face-off, Moscow has an
extraordinary piece of leverage: a super-sophisticated, bomber-killing
missile that it once threatened to sell to Iran.
Last week, Reuters first reported Russia was preparing an oil-for-goods deal with Iran worth up to $20 billion.
An unnamed Iranian official told the news service that the barter would
include Russian weapons. And that was before further signs of Russia’s shadow invasion
of Ukraine emerged Monday, when crowds spontaneously appeared in three
major eastern cities to welcome the troops amassed over the border. The
Daily Beast reported that associates of Viktor Yanukovych, the deposed
and Kremlin-friendly Ukrainian president, were meeting with pro-Russian activists. One keen-eyed photographer captured a man wearing a Russian Airborne forces tee-shirt at one of the protests.
The
trade between Moscow and Tehran would alleviate the economic pressure
on Iran that the White House has said helped bring the Islamic Republic
to the bargaining table. It may even sink the talks President Obama is
hoping will persuade Iran to defang its nuclear program. If
those talks fail, then Russia has the leverage to equip Iran with the
missile that could defend its centrifuges and reactors from allied air
strikes, the S-300.
“I
could see as part of this deal [between Tehran and Moscow] that they
would agree to transfer advanced missiles to Iran,” said Mark Dubowitz,
the executive director of the hawkish Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies and an expert in the Iran sanctions. “If [Russian president
Vladimir] Putin became angry enough over the West’s financial punishment
of Russia, he could put in play the S-300 deal.”
The
S-300 has long been Moscow’s top-of-the-line air defense system. The
current model is comparable to U.S. Patriot missile batteries. The S-300
deploys sophisticated radars, launch vehicles and missiles to shoot
aircraft and even ballistic missiles out of the sky. Russia has also
threatened to sell the system to Syria, whose hapless air force was
hacked by Israel in 2007, rendering its anti-aircraft defenses useless
when Israel bombed the al-Kibar nuclear facility.
In
the second term of the George W. Bush, Russia came close to selling and
training Iran’s military on how to use the sophisticated S-300 system.
But then in 2010, the Russians pulled back from the sale during
negotiations over U.N. Security Council resolution 1929, the resolution
the Obama administration used to persuade banks and finance ministries
all over the world to isolate most of Iran’s economy.
Moscow ended
up supporting that resolution and cancelling the sale—which was
considered a triumph of the Obama administration’s foreign policy at the
time. But Russia also negotiated an important loophole. While the
resolution bans almost every possible arms sale imaginable, it still
technically allows U.N. member states to sell Iran air defense weaponry such as the S-300 system.
“There
was no prohibition of the S-300 in the resolution,” said Michael
McFaul, who left his post earlier this year as the U.S. ambassador to
Russia and played a role in 2010 as a senior White House staff member in
negotiating the Iran resolution. McFaul said Russia’s president at the
time, Dimitry Medvedev, at first privately and then publicly said the
spirit of the resolution would prohibit the sale of the S-300. “But he
was not obligated to do that by the resolution itself,” McFaul said.
McFaul
declined to comment on whether he suspected Russia would actually
provide Iran with the air defense system. Dubowitz, however, says he is
concerned Moscow could renege on its promise not to sell Iran the S-300. One Obama administration
official told The Daily Beast the United States has seen no evidence to
date that Russia would renege on its promise not to sell Iran the S-300
system.
But signals from
Moscow and Tehran have already drawn concern from Congress. On Monday,
the two senators who drafted the crippling sanctions legislation Obama
has implemented against Iran urged the White House to re-impose some of
the sanctions it temporarily lifted this fall when the nuclear talks
with Iran began.
In
the letter, Sen. Mark Kirk, a Republican, and Sen. Robert Menendez, a
Democrat, wrote that they were alarmed the barter agreement reported by
Reuters “may provide for the transfer to Iran of items of significant
value to Iran’s military and its nuclear program.”
For
now, the Obama administration is hoping that Russia will consider the
potential costs to its own economy if it continues to defy the west in
Ukraine. Speaking to reporters on Monday, State Department spokeswoman
Jen Psaki pointed to how Russia’s economy has already experienced
turbulence after Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
“The
World Bank has warned that Russia’s economy could shrink by 1.8 percent
this year even without additional economic sanctions,” she said. “The
Russian currency has experienced sharp volatility between March 3rd and
April 7th. The Central Bank of Russia spent $25.8 billion to prop up
the ruble. All of these are specific impacts that we’re seeing in the
Russian economy.”
Western
sanctions against Russia so far have been limited and focused on banning
the travel and seizing the assets of senior officials in President
Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. President Obama, however, has also held
out the prospect that sanctions could be much tougher against Russia if
its military invades eastern Ukraine. Indeed, the executive order Obama
signed implementing the first round of sanctions also said the United
States was prepared to implement much tougher sanctions on key sectors
of Russia’s economy such as mining.
Zachary
Goldman, the executive director of the center on law and security at
the New York University School of Law, said Russia has considerable
leverage on western countries, but not as much as the United States and
Europe have on Russia.
“Can
the Russians impose pain on the U.S. and its allies in Europe?
Probably,” said Goldman, who served as a policy adviser in the Treasury
Department’s office that tracks terrorist financing. “Can it impose as
much pain on us as we can to them? Probably not.” Goldman however
pointed out that Russia could jeopardize western investments in Russia, a
knotty international law problem that often takes months if not years
to resolve.
The
United States also needs Russia in the negotiations with Iran over its
nuclear program. Another round of those talks is scheduled to start this
week in Vienna, Austria. Russia participates in those talks along with
China, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. U.S. officials tell The
Daily Beast that to date Russian diplomats participating in the Iran
negotiations have not drawn any linkage between them and the stand off
over Ukraine. But if the pressure mounts on Moscow, then the West may
end up paying the price for punishing Russia, at the bargaining table
with Iran.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/russia-ace-hole-094500669--politics.html
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/russia-ace-hole-094500669--politics.html
Turkey vulnerable to rising Russian power in the Black Sea
With the annexation of Crimea, Turkey faces a stronger and bolder Russian naval power in the Black Sea. A resurgent Russia may be tempted to exploit its temporary naval dominance to alter current Black Sea energy exploitation and transportation arrangements more in its favor and to the detriment of Turkey and its partners in the Caucasus. The politically motivated stoppage of Turkey’s National Warship Project’s production schedule has created a window of vulnerability in Turkey’s Black Sea naval defenses in the face of rapidly rising Russian naval power.
Background:
The $3 billion “National Warship” Project, known by its Turkish abbreviation MILGEM, seeks to upgrade the Turkish fleet by replacing and augmenting its older foreign-made warships with eight domestically produced Ada-class anti-submarine warfare corvettes and subsequently four intermediate-class TF 100 frigates. After gaining experience from the building of the slightly larger but more lethal TF 100 anti-air warfare frigates, Turkey then intends to build a series of TF 2000 frigates. Double the size of the TF 100, the TF 2000 anti-air warfare frigate will significantly advance the Turkish fleet’s transformation into a blue-water navy.
Aside from being an intermediate phase for the development of the TF 2000, the TF 100 frigates are of present vital importance as replacements for the German-made Meko 200 frigates that form an essential component of Turkey’s force projection in the Black Sea. The TF 100 frigates will be the first Turkish vessels to carry the American-manufactured RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) system capable of countering the current generation of supersonic anti-ship missiles.
Prior to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the head of Turkey’s Undersecretariat of Defense Industries Murat Bayar publicly acknowledged the need to replace the Meko 200 frigates with the ESSM-equipped TF 100s by 2020.
However, in September 2013, upon the commissioning of the TCG Büyükada, the second of MILGEM’s eight Ada-class corvettes, the Turkish government abruptly canceled RMK Marine’s contract to build the remaining six corvettes. A subsidiary the Turkish conglomerate Koç Holding A.Ş., the cancellation of RMK Marine’s contract appears to be part of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political vendetta against the Koç family for providing assistance to anti-Erdogan protesters from a Koç-owned Istanbul hotel during the summer 2013 Gezi Park demonstrations.
The next two corvettes will be produced by Turkey’s national shipyard while the government evaluates bids for the building of the four remaining corvettes. Despite Undersecretary Bayar’s optimistic forecasts that the government’s cancellations will delay the production schedule for the Ada-class corvettes by only one year, the cascade effect of the production stoppage in setting back the building of the TF 100 frigates, as well as the subsequent TF 2000s, has created a four- to eight-year window of vulnerability for Turkey in the Black Sea vis-à-vis a resurgent Russia.
Turkey’s strategic vulnerability was not anticipated because of the view in Turkish policy circles that Turkey enjoys a relative parity with Russia in the Black Sea. However, the approximate parity exists only when Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is matched against all the major assets of the Turkish navy. Prior to the Crimean conflict, Russia’s Black Sea fleet consisted of 24 major surface combatants and one diesel submarine while Turkey’s major naval assets consist of approximately 24 surface combatants and 14 submarines. The parity is illusory as it is unlikely that Turkey would be able to deploy all or most of its naval assets in a Black Sea conflict.
Turkey’s ability to deter Russian assertiveness in what Moscow regards as its greater Black Sea sphere of influence, including the eastern Mediterranean and the Caucasus, was already questionable. As Russia’s Black Sea Fleet disposed of Georgia’s miniscule navy during the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Ankara passively watched the Russian military destroy Turkey’s infrastructure investments in Georgia. Turkey’s supposed naval parity did not afford Ankara any significant policy options.
Indeed, Ankara revealed its reluctance to provoke Moscow into challenging the Montreux Convention, the 1936 treaty granting Ankara exclusive control over the Bosphorous Straits and the Dardanelles and restricting the transit of heavy warships through this strategic Black Sea-Eastern Mediterranean access corridor.
Implications:
With the annexation of Crimea, Turkey faces a stronger and bolder Russian naval power in the Black Sea. Russia now possesses the Ukrainian navy’s submarine and several, if not most, of Ukraine’s 11 major surface combatants. Even without the Ukraine’s naval assets, Russia’s own new additions to its Black Sea Fleet will enable Moscow to dominate the region. Russia recently put to sea the first of its six Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates. All six frigates are designated for service in the Black Sea Fleet.
Larger and more advanced than Turkey’s four modified Meko 200 Barbaros-class frigates, each of the six Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates will be the first vessels equipped with the state-of-the-art, supersonic Shtil-1 Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) air defense system. Moscow expects all six frigates to be in service in the Black Sea Fleet by the end of 2016. Turkey’s now delayed TF 100 frigates, slated to carry the ESSM system, would be the only Turkish vessels with a comparable SAM capability.
Within the same 2016 timeframe, Russia will also add six newly improved Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines to its Black Sea Fleet ahead of Turkey’s deployment of an equivalent number of Ada-class anti-submarine corvettes. These two Russian procurement programs alone will quickly tilt the balance of naval forces in Russia’s favor, giving Russia a significant strategic advantage for a window of four to eight years depending on the pace of Turkey’s resumed production schedule.
In addition, Russia is in the process of acquiring two French-made Mistral-class amphibious assault ships, to be named the Vladivostok and Sevastapol, the latter being the namesake of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s base in Crimea. The amphibious assault ships are helicopter carriers that can accommodate 16 attack helicopters as well as 13 battle tanks and 450 combat soldiers.
A Mistral-class helicopter carrier in the Black Sea Fleet would provide Russia with unprecedented power projection capability in its greater Black Sea region. Russia’s recent announcement that it has no plans to deploy either of the helicopter carriers in the Black Sea may simply constitute a temporary measure by Moscow to assuage French sensibilities in order to ensure that France does not rescind the sale as a result of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. Turkey cannot discount the likely possibility that the Sevastapol will serve at the Black Sea Fleet base after which it was named.
Russia’s reassertion of naval power in the Black Sea has already been accompanied by Moscow’s first action to change the status quo in relation to Black Sea energy exploitation. With the formal annexation of Crimea, Ukraine’s Black Sea Oil and Gas company, ChronomorNaftohaz, was made into a whole-owned subsidiary of the Russian state-controlled joint-stock company Gazprom. Between the acquisition of ChronomorNaftohaz itself and Gazprom’s now exclusive license for all offshore energy development in Crimea’s continental shelf, the Russian energy giant has acquired an estimated $50 billion in capital assets.
Turkey’s national oil and gas company TPAO has itself spent $2.5 billion on offshore energy exploration in Turkey’s continental shelf. Current estimates predict Turkey’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Black Sea contains 10 billion barrels of crude oil and two trillion cubic meters of natural gas. However as ultra deep-water wells are drilled in the region, more hydrocarbon resources may be discovered. Even if Russia, whose continental shelf now projects from Crimea and therefore closer to Turkey, does not attempt to dispute the demarcation of Turkey’s EEZ, Turkey’s drilling platforms can no longer be defended as easily from Russian warships.
Of greater concern for Ankara is the more likely possibility that Russia may use Turkey’s window of vulnerability to alter the status quo in relation to the transport of natural gas through Russia’s “South Stream” gas pipeline. The Russia-to-Bulgaria pipeline had been routed through Turkey’s territorial waters to avoid the Ukraine’s EEZ. Russia’s annexation of Crimea renders this longer and more expensive route unnecessary and may lead Moscow to abrogate this very lucrative agreement for Turkey.
Moreover, Moscow may seek to affect the development of the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline intended to transport Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe via Georgia and Turkey. To prevent the breaking of its stranglehold over gas exports to Europe, Russia may resume its simmering conflict with Georgia or even expand the use of military pressure to Azerbaijan. Ankara would have fewer options to block such an exercise of Russian power, as Turkey is now in a weaker relative position than during the time of the 2008 Russo-Georgian war.
Conclusions:
The politically motivated stoppage of the MILGEM’s production schedule has created a window of vulnerability in Turkey’s Black Sea naval defenses in the face of rapidly rising Russian naval power. The delayed production of the Ada-class anti-submarine corvettes will put Turkey at a disadvantage relative to Russia’s imminent deployment of a new fleet of Black Sea submarines. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet will also possess six Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates capable of countering supersonic anti-ship missiles while Turkey will lack the comparable capability because of the setback to MILGEM’s four TF 100 frigates.
Until Turkey can build and deploy these naval assets, Ankara’s deterrent capability has eroded and Russia will dominate the Black Sea. Exercising sea control, Moscow can more easily deploy its newly acquired Mistral-class helicopter carrier to stage amphibious assault operations against other Black Sea littoral states including Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Having taken control of Ukraine’s offshore oil and natural gas operations, Moscow will likely attempt to alter regional energy transport arrangements in Russia’s favor while Rusia still enjoys naval dominance. With Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, Russia no longer needs to route its “South Stream” gas pipeline through Turkish waters to avoid Ukraine’s EEZ
Moscow may attempt to cancel its agreement with
Ankara and reroute the pipeline through Crimea’s continental shelf,
resulting in a considerable revenue loss for Turkey. Until Ankara can rectify the gap in naval capabilities created by
MILGEM’s delays, Turkey will not be able to defend its national
interests adequately as Russia attempts to reestablish its sphere of
influence in the greater Black Sea region.
The author is a Fellow at the Shalem College, Jerusalem, and at the Middle East and Asia Units of the Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at Hebrew University. Dr. Tanchum teaches in the Departments of Middle Eastern History and East Asian Studies of Tel Aviv University.
The author is a Fellow at the Shalem College, Jerusalem, and at the Middle East and Asia Units of the Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at Hebrew University. Dr. Tanchum teaches in the Departments of Middle Eastern History and East Asian Studies of Tel Aviv University.
Source: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-Ed-Contributors/Turkey-vulnerable-to-rising-Russian-power-in-the-Black-Sea-349928
Checking Putin's Eurasian Ambitions
American leaders have responded to Moscow's
annexation of Crimea by beefing up NATO allies in Russia's vicinity, and
rightly so. But it's imperative that Washington also pay attention to
the security of the South Caucasus corridor through Georgia and
Azerbaijan, which is crucial both for reverse transit from Afghanistan
and Western access to the heart of Eurasia.
Though separated by the Black Sea, the fate of Ukraine and the countries of the South Caucasus is intimately connected: They are both central to Vladimir Putin's dream of a "Eurasian" empire, stretching fromBelarus to Tajikistan. Without Slavic Ukraine, there can be no real Eurasian union. Without control over the South Caucasus corridor, Russia can't secure the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.
The East-West corridor connecting Europe with the heart of Eurasia has been an important and bipartisan success of U.S. foreign policy. From the early 1990s, America supported the sovereignty and independence of the former Soviet republics, while helping develop the oil and gas wealth of the Caspian littoral. Washington played the central role in ensuring that Europe became the first major export destination of Caspian oil.
Then the 9/11 attacks showed the importance of this corridor for America's own national security. The willingness of post-Soviet states to assist in the war on terror was directly proportional to their level of independence from Moscow. And with Iran out of the question and Russia imposing many conditions and caveats, the airspace of Georgia and Azerbaijan became the only reliable air corridor connecting NATO territory with Afghanistan. Similarly, the land bridge across Georgia and Azerbaijan carries about a third of the logistics for the Afghanistan operation.
In the past five years, however,
President Barack Obama's "reset" policy prioritized relations with
Moscow at the expense of these smaller states. For the leaders of
post-Soviet states, American disengagement from their security affairs
was paralleled by growing Russian pressure to abandon their pro-Western
foreign policies.
As U.S.-Russian relations deteriorate over Ukraine, the fallout won't be limited to Ukraine. The South Caucasus is a most likely area for Moscow to create further mayhem. Mr. Putin understands the strategic value of the South Caucasus corridor more than most Western planners. Hence the 2008 invasion of Georgia, which as even former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has acknowledged was aimed at stopping NATO expansion. "If the war against Georgia had not happened," Mr. Medvedev said in 2011, "several countries would join NATO."
Over the past few years, Russia has cooperated with the U.S. by opening the northern-distribution network to supply the operation in Afghanistan across Russian territory. Wisely, however, the U.S. ensured part of the network went through the South Caucasus instead of Russia. Moscow could easily threaten to shut down its portion of the network, leaving the Pentagon with two options: going south through Pakistan or west across the Caucasus. In other words: If Moscow were to block access through the South Caucasus, Washington could find itself at the mercy of Islamabad.
Moscow has already consolidated its control over Armenia. Yerevan, like Tbilisi, had negotiated an association agreement with the European Union in July 2013. Yet Mr. Putin two months later bullied Yerevan to join his own custom union instead. And in both Georgia and Azerbaijan, Mr. Putin is investing in pro-Russian constituencies among opposition politicians, civil-society groups and ethnic minorities. Leaders in both Azerbaijan and Georgia have been left unimpressed by the Western reaction to the Crimea crisis. Both wonder when and where the risks of their pro-Western foreign policies outweigh the benefits.
Using its huge military presence in Armenia, Moscow could stir trouble with Azerbaijan, given the festering conflict between those two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. And Georgia lies between Russia and Russia's Armenian bases. As Tbilisi plans to sign its own association agreement with the EU this summer, Russian pressure is bound to intensify. What if Moscow demanded a military corridor across Georgia to its bases in Armenia? If the fractious and untested Georgian government felt no American backing, it's an open question how Tbilisi would respond.
Such a development would have serious implications for America. If only one of the two gives in, Moscow would gain control over the reverse transit route from Afghanistan. And in the longer term, such a scenario would mean the loss of Washington's access to Central Asia. With that, any hopes of Caspian energy resources helping to diversify the EU's energy security could come to naught.
None of this needs to happen. To prevent such an outcome, the Obama administration must reassure its allies in Tbilisi and Baku. First, U.S. leaders must make clear that the "reset" no longer applies: America's engagement in the region will no longer be indexed to Moscow's reactions. High-level visits of American diplomats and military leaders are needed to signal that Washington takes the security of the region seriously; bilateral security and defense ties must be deepened.
Mr. Obama should consider officially pronouncing his support for Georgia to receive a membership-action plan at the upcoming NATO summit; Azerbaijan doesn't ask for one, but Washington should consult with Baku on steps to deepen NATO cooperation, as well as enhance America's role in negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Deploying American military facilities and personnel—if only for logistical purposes—in either or both countries would also send the right message to Moscow. The South Caucasus could serve as a powerful bulwark against the Russian imperialist tide—but only if the U.S. recommits itself to the region's security.
Mr. Cornell is director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a co-founder of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm.
Though separated by the Black Sea, the fate of Ukraine and the countries of the South Caucasus is intimately connected: They are both central to Vladimir Putin's dream of a "Eurasian" empire, stretching fromBelarus to Tajikistan. Without Slavic Ukraine, there can be no real Eurasian union. Without control over the South Caucasus corridor, Russia can't secure the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.
The East-West corridor connecting Europe with the heart of Eurasia has been an important and bipartisan success of U.S. foreign policy. From the early 1990s, America supported the sovereignty and independence of the former Soviet republics, while helping develop the oil and gas wealth of the Caspian littoral. Washington played the central role in ensuring that Europe became the first major export destination of Caspian oil.
Then the 9/11 attacks showed the importance of this corridor for America's own national security. The willingness of post-Soviet states to assist in the war on terror was directly proportional to their level of independence from Moscow. And with Iran out of the question and Russia imposing many conditions and caveats, the airspace of Georgia and Azerbaijan became the only reliable air corridor connecting NATO territory with Afghanistan. Similarly, the land bridge across Georgia and Azerbaijan carries about a third of the logistics for the Afghanistan operation.
As U.S.-Russian relations deteriorate over Ukraine, the fallout won't be limited to Ukraine. The South Caucasus is a most likely area for Moscow to create further mayhem. Mr. Putin understands the strategic value of the South Caucasus corridor more than most Western planners. Hence the 2008 invasion of Georgia, which as even former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has acknowledged was aimed at stopping NATO expansion. "If the war against Georgia had not happened," Mr. Medvedev said in 2011, "several countries would join NATO."
Over the past few years, Russia has cooperated with the U.S. by opening the northern-distribution network to supply the operation in Afghanistan across Russian territory. Wisely, however, the U.S. ensured part of the network went through the South Caucasus instead of Russia. Moscow could easily threaten to shut down its portion of the network, leaving the Pentagon with two options: going south through Pakistan or west across the Caucasus. In other words: If Moscow were to block access through the South Caucasus, Washington could find itself at the mercy of Islamabad.
Moscow has already consolidated its control over Armenia. Yerevan, like Tbilisi, had negotiated an association agreement with the European Union in July 2013. Yet Mr. Putin two months later bullied Yerevan to join his own custom union instead. And in both Georgia and Azerbaijan, Mr. Putin is investing in pro-Russian constituencies among opposition politicians, civil-society groups and ethnic minorities. Leaders in both Azerbaijan and Georgia have been left unimpressed by the Western reaction to the Crimea crisis. Both wonder when and where the risks of their pro-Western foreign policies outweigh the benefits.
Using its huge military presence in Armenia, Moscow could stir trouble with Azerbaijan, given the festering conflict between those two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. And Georgia lies between Russia and Russia's Armenian bases. As Tbilisi plans to sign its own association agreement with the EU this summer, Russian pressure is bound to intensify. What if Moscow demanded a military corridor across Georgia to its bases in Armenia? If the fractious and untested Georgian government felt no American backing, it's an open question how Tbilisi would respond.
Such a development would have serious implications for America. If only one of the two gives in, Moscow would gain control over the reverse transit route from Afghanistan. And in the longer term, such a scenario would mean the loss of Washington's access to Central Asia. With that, any hopes of Caspian energy resources helping to diversify the EU's energy security could come to naught.
None of this needs to happen. To prevent such an outcome, the Obama administration must reassure its allies in Tbilisi and Baku. First, U.S. leaders must make clear that the "reset" no longer applies: America's engagement in the region will no longer be indexed to Moscow's reactions. High-level visits of American diplomats and military leaders are needed to signal that Washington takes the security of the region seriously; bilateral security and defense ties must be deepened.
Mr. Obama should consider officially pronouncing his support for Georgia to receive a membership-action plan at the upcoming NATO summit; Azerbaijan doesn't ask for one, but Washington should consult with Baku on steps to deepen NATO cooperation, as well as enhance America's role in negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Deploying American military facilities and personnel—if only for logistical purposes—in either or both countries would also send the right message to Moscow. The South Caucasus could serve as a powerful bulwark against the Russian imperialist tide—but only if the U.S. recommits itself to the region's security.
Mr. Cornell is director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a co-founder of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm.
Source: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles
From Estonia to Azerbaijan: US strategy after Ukraine
The fundamental
problem that Ukraine poses for Russia, beyond a long-term geographical
threat, is a crisis in internal legitimacy. Russian President Vladimir
Putin has spent his time in power rebuilding the authority of the
Russian state within Russia and the authority of Russia within the
former Soviet Union. The events in Ukraine undermine the second strategy
and potentially the first. If Putin cannot maintain at least Ukrainian
neutrality, then the world’s perception of him as a master strategist is
shattered, and the legitimacy and authority he has built for the
Russian state is, at best, shaken.
Whatever the origins
of the events in Ukraine, the United States is now engaged in a
confrontation with Russia. The Russians believe that the United States
was the prime mover behind regime change in Ukraine. At the very least,
the Russians intend to reverse events in Ukraine. At most, the Russians
have reached the conclusion that the United States intends to undermine
Russia’s power. They will resist. The United States has the option of
declining confrontation, engaging in meaningless sanctions against
individuals and allowing events to take their course. Alternatively, the
United States can choose to engage and confront the Russians.
A failure to engage at
this point would cause countries around Russia’s periphery, from
Estonia to Azerbaijan, to conclude that with the United States withdrawn
and Europe fragmented, they must reach an accommodation with Russia.
This will expand Russian power and open the door to Russian influence
spreading on the European peninsula itself. The United States has fought
three wars (World War I, World War II and the Cold War) to prevent
hegemonic domination of the region. Failure to engage would be a
reversal of a century-old strategy.
The American dilemma
is how to address the strategic context in a global setting in which it
is less involved in the Middle East and is continuing to work toward a
“pivot to Asia.” Nor can the United States simply allow events to take
their course. The United States needs a strategy that is economical and
coherent militarily, politically and financially. It has two advantages.
Some of the countries on Russia’s periphery do not want to be dominated
by her. Russia, in spite of some strengths, is inherently weak and does
not require US exertion on the order of the two World Wars, the Cold
War or even the Middle East engagements of the past decade.
The Russian and US positions
Putin is now in a
position where, in order to retain with confidence his domestic
authority, he must act decisively to reverse the outcome. The problem is
there is no single decisive action that would reverse events.
Eventually, the inherent divisions in Ukraine might reverse events.
However, a direct invasion of eastern Ukraine would simply solidify
opposition to Russia in Kiev and trigger responses internationally that
he cannot predict. In the end, it would simply drive home that although
the Russians once held a dominant position in all of Ukraine, they now
hold it in less than half. In the long run, this option—like other
short-term options—would not solve the Russian conundrum.
Whatever Putin does in
Ukraine, he has two choices. One is simply to accept the reversal,
which I would argue that he cannot do. The second is to take action in
places where he might achieve rapid diplomatic and political victories
against the West—the Baltics, Moldova or the Caucasus—while encouraging
Ukraine’s government to collapse into gridlock and developing bilateral
relations along the Estonia-Azerbaijan line. This would prevent a US
strategy of containment—a strategy that worked during the Cold War and
one that the Europeans are incapable of implementing on their own. This
comes down to the Americans.
The United States has
been developing, almost by default, a strategy not of disengagement but
of indirect engagement. Between 1989 and 2008, the US strategy has been
the use of US troops as the default for dealing with foreign issues.
From Panama to Somalia, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States
followed a policy of direct and early involvement of US military forces.
However, this was not the US strategy from 1914 to 1989. Then, the
strategy was to provide political support to allies, followed by
economic and military aid, followed by advisers and limited forces, and
in some cases pre-positioned forces. The United States kept its main
force in reserve for circumstances in which (as in 1917 and 1942 and, to
a lesser degree, in Korea and Vietnam) allies could not contain the
potential hegemon. Main force was the last resort.
This was primarily a
strategy of maintaining the balance of power. The containment of the
Soviet Union involved creating an alliance system comprising countries
at risk of Soviet attack. Containment was a balance-of-power strategy
that did not seek the capitulation of the Soviet Union as much as
increasing the risks of offensive action using allied countries as the
first barrier. The threat of full US intervention, potentially including
nuclear weapons, coupled with the alliance structure, constrained
Soviet risk-taking.
Because the current
Russian Federation is much weaker than the Soviet Union was at its
height and because the general geographic principle in the region
remains the same, a somewhat analogous balance of power strategy is
likely to emerge after the events in Ukraine. Similar to the containment
policy of 1945 to 1989, again in principle if not in detail, it would
combine economy of force and finance, and limit the development of
Russia as a hegemonic power while exposing the United States to limited
and controlled risk.
The coalescence of
this strategy is a development I forecast in two books, The Next Decade
and The Next 100 Years, as a concept I called the Intermarium. The
Intermarium was a plan pursued after World War I by Polish leader Jozef
Pilsudski for a federation, under Poland’s aegis, of Central and Eastern
European countries. What is now emerging is not the Intermarium, but it
is close. And it is now transforming from an abstract forecast to a
concrete, if still emergent, reality.
Forces leading to the alliance’s emergence
A Direct military
intervention by the United States in Ukraine is not possible. First,
Ukraine is a large country, and the force required to protect it would
outstrip US capabilities. Second, supplying such a force would require a
logistics system that does not exist and would take a long time to
build. Finally, such an intervention would be inconceivable without a
strong alliance system extending to the West and around the Black Sea.
The United States can supply economic and political support, but Ukraine
cannot counterbalance Russia and the United States cannot escalate to
the point of using its own forces. Ukraine is a battleground on which
Russian forces would have an advantage and a US defeat would be
possible.
If the United States
chooses to confront Russia with a military component, it must be on a
stable perimeter and on as broad a front as possible to extend Russian
resources and decrease the probability of Russian attack at any one
point out of fear of retaliation elsewhere. The ideal mechanism for such
a strategy would be Nato, which contains almost all of the critical
countries save Azerbaijan and Georgia. The problem is that Nato is not a
functional alliance. It was designed to fight the Cold War on a line
far to the west of the current line. More important, there was unity on
the principle that the Soviet Union represented an existential threat to
Western Europe.
That consensus is no
longer there. Different countries have different perceptions of Russia
and different concerns. For many, a replay of the Cold War, even in the
face of Russian actions in Ukraine, is worse than accommodation. In
addition, the end of the Cold War has led to a massive drawdown of
forces in Europe. Nato simply lacks the force unless there is a massive
and sudden buildup. That will not occur because of the financial crisis,
among other reasons. Nato requires unanimity to act, and that unanimity
is not there.
The countries that
were at risk from 1945 to 1989 are not the same as those at risk today.
Many of these countries were part of the Soviet Union then, and the rest
were Soviet satellites. The old alliance system was not built for this
confrontation. The Estonia-Azerbaijan line has as its primary interest
retaining sovereignty in the face of Russian power. The rest of Europe
is not in jeopardy, and these countries are not prepared to commit
financial and military efforts to a problem they believe can be managed
with little risk to them. Therefore, any American strategy must bypass
Nato or, at the very least, create new structures to organize the
region.
Characteristics of the alliance
Each of the various
countries involved is unique and has to be addressed that way. But these
countries share the common danger that events in Ukraine could spread
and directly affect their national security interests, including
internal stability. As I observed, the Baltics, Moldova and the Caucasus
are areas where the Russians could seek to compensate for their defeat.
Because of this, and also because of their intrinsic importance,
Poland, Romania and Azerbaijan must be the posts around which this
alliance is built.
The Baltic salient,
145 kilometers from Saint Petersburg in Estonia, would be a target for
Russian destabilization. Poland borders the Baltics and is the leading
figure in the Visegrad battlegroup, an organization within the European
Union. Poland is eager for a closer military relationship with the
United States, as its national strategy has long been based on
third-power guarantees against aggressors. The Poles cannot defend
themselves and the Baltics, given the combat capabilities necessary for
the task.
The Dniester River is
80 kilometers from Odessa, the main port on the Black Sea for Ukraine
and an important one for Russia. The Prut River is about 200 kilometers
from Bucharest, the capital of Romania. Moldova is between these two
rivers. It is a battleground region, at least of competing political
factions. Romania must be armed and supported in protecting Moldova and
in organizing southeastern Europe. In Western hands, Moldova threatens
Odessa, Ukraine’s major port also used by Russia on the Black Sea. In
Russian hands, Moldova threatens Bucharest.
At the far end of the
alliance structure I am envisioning is Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea
bordering Russia and Iran. Should Dagestan and Chechnya destabilize,
Azerbaijan—which is Islamic and majority Shiite but secular—would become
critical for limiting the regional spread of jihadists. Azerbaijan also
would support the alliance’s position in the Black Sea by supporting
Georgia and would serve as a bridge for relations (and energy) should
Western relations with Iran continue to improve. To the southwest, the
very pro-Russian Armenia—which has a Russian troop presence and a
long-term treaty with Moscow—could escalate tensions with Azerbaijan in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Previously, this was not a pressing issue for the
United States. Now it is. The security of Georgia and its ports on the
Black Sea requires Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the alliance.
Azerbaijan serves a
more strategic purpose. Most of the countries in the alliance are heavy
importers of Russian energy; for instance, 91 percent of Poland’s energy
imports and 86 percent of Hungary’s come from Russia. There is no
short-term solution to this problem, but Russia needs the revenue from
these exports as much as these countries need the energy. Developing
European shale and importing US energy is a long-term solution. A
medium-term solution, depending on pipeline developments that Russia has
tended to block in the past, is sending natural gas from Azerbaijan to
Europe. Until now, this has been a commercial issue, but it has become a
strategically critical issue. The Caspian region, of which Azerbaijan
is the lynchpin, is the only major alternative to Russia for energy.
Therefore, rapid expansion of pipelines to the heart of Europe is as
essential as providing Azerbaijan with the military capability to defend
itself (a capability it is prepared to pay for and, unlike other allied
countries, does not need to be underwritten).
The key to the
pipeline will be Turkey’s willingness to permit transit. I have not
included Turkey as a member of this alliance. Its internal politics,
complex relations and heavy energy dependence on Russia make such
participation difficult. I view Turkey in this alliance structure as
France in the Cold War. It was aligned yet independent, militarily
self-sufficient yet dependent on the effective functioning of others.
Turkey, inside or outside of the formal structure, will play this role
because the future of the Black Sea, the Caucasus and southeastern
Europe is essential to Ankara.
These countries,
diverse as they are, share a desire not to be dominated by the Russians.
That commonality is a basis for forging them into a functional military
alliance. This is not an offensive force but a force designed to deter
Russian expansion. All of these countries need modern military
equipment, particularly air defense, anti-tank and mobile infantry. In
each case, the willingness of the United States to supply these weapons,
for cash or credit as the situation requires, will strengthen pro-US
political forces in each country and create a wall behind which Western
investment can take place. And it is an organization that others can
join, which unlike Nato does not allow each member the right to veto.
The practicality of the US strategy
There are those who
would criticize this alliance for including members who do not share all
the democratic values of the US State Department. This may be true. It
is also true that during the Cold War the United States was allied with
the Shah’s Iran, Turkey and Greece under dictatorship and Mao’s China
after 1971. Having encouraged Ukrainian independence, the United
States—in trying to protect that independence and the independence of
other countries in the region—is creating an alliance structure that
will include countries, such as Azerbaijan, that have been criticized.
However, if energy does not come from Azerbaijan, it will come from
Russia, and then the Ukrainian events will dissolve into tragic farce.
The State Department must grapple with the harsh forces its own policies
have unleashed. This suggests that the high-mindedness borne of benign
assumptions now proven to be illusions must make way for realpolitik
calculations.
The balance-of-power
strategy allows the United States to use the natural inclination of
allies to bolster its own position and take various steps, of which
military intervention is the last, not the first. It recognizes that the
United States, as nearly 25 percent of the world’s economy and the
global maritime hegemon, cannot evade involvement. Its very size and
existence involves it. Nor can the United States confine itself to
gestures like sanctions on 20 people. This is not seen as a sign of
resolve as much as weakness. It does mean that as the United States
engages in issues like Ukraine and must make strategic decisions, there
are alternatives to intervention—such as alliances. In this case, a
natural alliance structure presents itself—a descendant of Nato but
shaped for this crisis, much like the alliance I forecast previously.
In my view, Russian
power is limited and has flourished while the United States was
distracted by its wars in the Middle East and while Europe struggled
with its economic crisis. That does not mean Russia is not dangerous. It
has short-term advantages, and its insecurity means that it will take
risks. Weak and insecure states with temporary advantages are dangerous.
The United States has an interest in acting early because early action
is cheaper than acting in the last extremity. This is a case of anti-air
missiles, attack helicopters, communications systems and training,
among other things. These are things the United States has in abundance.
It is not a case of deploying divisions, of which it has few. The
Poles, Romanians, Azerbaijanis and certainly the Turks can defend
themselves. They need weapons and training, and that will keep Russia
contained within its caldron as it plays out a last hand as a great
power.
Sanctioning Russia Into Multi-Polar World?
US and European sanctions against
Russia are designed to “punish” its actions in Crimea. However, instead
of forcing Russia into economic and political submission, the sanctions
will spur the country to greater political and economic independence.
Since the end of the Soviet Union, Russia’s economic progress and development has been directly dependent on political and economic institutions dominated by the West. From Russia’s integration into the World Trade Organization, to Russian dependence on Western banking and finance, Moscow has come to rely on precisely those institutions now being used against it. Naturally, any Russian countermeasures against the sanctions will aim to disentangle it from this US-, Anglo- and Euro-centric architecture, forcing Moscow to look elsewhere for its economic future. This need to find alternative modes of development and prosperity will contribute greatly toward the continuing shift to a multi-polar world.
Considering the vast sums of money and future investment at stake, it seems unlikely that there will be a monumental shift in the financial arrangement between Russia and the West, the current crisis notwithstanding. However, the recent actions taken by the US and its European partners underscore the need for Russia to consider viable alternatives to dependence on the West. This dependence takes many forms, from access to financing to revenue from energy exports – Russia heavily relies on Western capital to finance its budget and economic development.
Since the end of the Soviet Union, Russia’s economic progress and development has been directly dependent on political and economic institutions dominated by the West. From Russia’s integration into the World Trade Organization, to Russian dependence on Western banking and finance, Moscow has come to rely on precisely those institutions now being used against it. Naturally, any Russian countermeasures against the sanctions will aim to disentangle it from this US-, Anglo- and Euro-centric architecture, forcing Moscow to look elsewhere for its economic future. This need to find alternative modes of development and prosperity will contribute greatly toward the continuing shift to a multi-polar world.
Considering the vast sums of money and future investment at stake, it seems unlikely that there will be a monumental shift in the financial arrangement between Russia and the West, the current crisis notwithstanding. However, the recent actions taken by the US and its European partners underscore the need for Russia to consider viable alternatives to dependence on the West. This dependence takes many forms, from access to financing to revenue from energy exports – Russia heavily relies on Western capital to finance its budget and economic development.
The sanctions imposed by the West have not only targeted individuals determined to be in President Putin’s “inner circle,” but also major Russian banks (Bank Rossiya, Sobinbank, and SMP Bank). As a result, VISA and MasterCard stopped offering card services through these banks, and later resumed services only to the SMP Bank, creating difficulties for many Russian citizens, as well as the institutions themselves. In response to these and other measures, Bank Rossiya has stopped conducting business in foreign currencies and has begun a shift to ruble-only operations. While this may create added difficulties for the bank in the short-term, it does signal a critical trend – a shift away from the US dollar and euro, towards the ruble (and possibly yuan) as a debt settlement currency. Such a move would have very significant long-term implications, including opening the door to a host of other developments.
First and foremost is the issue of energy revenue. While Europe
may be ramping up the rhetoric against Russia, the fact remains
that it is dependent on Russia for more than one third of its
total gas imports. Any significant sanctions would jeopardize
everything from Germany’s manufacturing base to France’s
chemicals and aircraft exports. With this in mind, no one in
Europe can seriously believe that punitive actions against Russia
won’t have a deleterious effect on an already fragile EU economy.
Surely Moscow understands this, which is why Putin and Co. don’t
seem terribly intimidated by the bluster from Brussels and
Berlin. However, should Russia decide to put the screws on
Europe, it has the proverbial “ace in the hole” in
China.
For decades, one of the world’s most intriguing and undoubtedly
lucrative development projects has been the possibility of a
Sino-Russian energy pipeline. Hampered by everything from
Soviet-era political animosity to disagreements over pricing and
construction subsidies, the project has never successfully gotten
off the ground. However, this has begun to change in recent
years. Although Russia’s Gazprom failed to secure a pricing deal with its Chinese partners in
January, it seems that the two are inching closer to the deal,
which will set in motion a development project that could have
far-reaching ramifications for the two countries, and arguably
for the world. Once the pipeline is finally in place (how long
that will take is still unclear), it will give Russia tremendous
leverage over Europe in all areas of cooperation and negotiation.
Moreover, it will allow Moscow to expand its influence in other
areas, free of the constraints of having to mollify Western
“partners.”
Aside from energy cooperation with China, Russia has another
important industry where it will continue to grow and flex its
muscles: weapons exports. Russia, accounting for 27 percent of
global arms exports in 2013, is second only to the US which
accounts for 29 percent of global arms trade. In fact, Russia has
announced recently that it is looking to expand its influence in
this crucial industry, particularly in the traditional US sphere
of influence, Latin America.
Alexander Fomin, the head of the Federal Service for
Military-Technical Cooperation, recently explained at a defense exhibition in
Chile that Russia is looking to expand its exports in South
America, including traditional weapons and military aircraft. He
added that “We are offering our Chilean partners a
localization of production in their country, which is certainly a
very beneficial aspect of our proposed contracts.” Taking a
page out of China’s playbook, it seems Russia is expanding its
influence in this key area of development by dangling the carrots
of job creation and local manufacturing, rather than simply
exports.
Additionally, Russia has outstanding contracts with Syria and
Iran for delivery of all-important S-300 missile defense systems.
Russia has, to this point, delayed the delivery of the systems to
these countries out of political considerations to the US and
Europe. As Russia was a key participant in the Iranian nuclear
negotiations, as well as in the diplomatic efforts to resolve the
war in Syria, Moscow has been wary of delivering on its
contracts. However, given the belligerence of the US and Europe,
it seems quite reasonable that Russia might rethink this
strategy, adding an additional layer of defense for countries
long since on America’s target list.
From the financial perspective, Russia has a great deal of
leverage vis-à-vis its energy exports. Specifically, Russia could
quite easily upset the entire Western economy by unilaterally
refusing to accept US dollars as payment for its energy. Were
Russia to demand payment in gold or some other currency, the
entire petrodollar economy could come crashing down. It would
force China to take countermeasures against rapid dollar
devaluation, which would only exacerbate the problem. The Euro,
itself being very closely tied to the dollar, would undoubtedly
also come crashing down. To be sure, such a strategy would be
dangerous to Russia’s own economy, but it could be seen as a
possible weapon of last resort, should Washington decide to
ratchet up the sanctions.
Many have speculated that Russia has already taken some of the
initial steps toward exiting from the dollar. In early 2014, a
“foreign government” dumped nearly $118 billion. Many experts believe that these
deals have been quietly executed by Russia, and would constitute
a stark warning to the US of Russia’s considerable influence in
terms of its dollar holdings. Should Russian moves in turn make
China nervous, then these actions would also have very dire
consequences for the world’s reserve currency.
The geopolitical impact
Aside from economic concerns, the sanctions could in many ways
threaten Western geopolitical hegemony. Such countermeasures
would force Russia to work more diligently and with greater
urgency toward cooperation within regional and strategic
groupings, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO).
In 2013, BRICS members agreed in principle to establish a BRICS Development Bank,
a financial institution that would act as an alternative to the
US and EU dominated International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World
Bank. Although the particulars of getting such an institution up
and running are quite complex, the idea is certainly possible and
could change the geopolitical and economic landscape of much of
the world. Were these obstacles overcome, much of the Global
South would be able to look to the BRICS Development Bank as a
means of securing much needed investment capital, without the
usual austerity, structural adjustments, and other
conditionalities attached to IMF and World Bank funds. Moreover,
it would provide sound economic footing upon which the developing
countries of the grouping could withstand continued economic
instability emanating from the US, Europe, and Japan.
In addition to BRICS, the SCO offers the possibility of a geopolitical counterweight to US-NATO hegemony. If the sanctions against Russia had the side effect of pushing Moscow and Beijing closer, undoubtedly expanded SCO cooperation would result. Not only is the grouping an economic forum within which Russia, China, former Soviet republics, and soon India, Pakistan, and possibly other nations, can come together to tackle security concerns, but economic cooperation has also become an important aspect of the SCO. This development would ultimately weaken US-NATO power, moving the world toward a multi-polar future.
Of course, all of these countermeasures do not change the fact
that any significant sanctions would hurt Russia in the short
term. With an economy that is still so heavily reliant upon
energy revenue and weapons exports, Russia has a long way to go
towards true economic self-reliance and diversity. In order to
significantly diversify, Russia will require cooperation, not
aggression from the US and its Western partners. However, given
recent developments, this may be more of a utopian vision than a
political reality.
Regardless of US and European policy, however, Russia is by no
means powerless. On the contrary, the Ukraine crisis has shown
the world that, less than twenty-five years after the end of the
Soviet Union, Russia is once again a major world power.
Source: http://rt.com/op-edge/sanctioning-russia-825/
Source: http://rt.com/op-edge/sanctioning-russia-825/
Washington Threatens Russia Over “Petrodollar-Busting
Deal”
On the heels of Russia’s potential “holy grail” gas deal with China (2), the news of a Russia-Iran oil “barter” deal (3), it appears the US is starting to get very concerned about its almighty Petrodollar
*U.S. HAS WARNED RUSSIA, IRAN AGAINST POSSIBLE OIL BARTER DEAL
*U.S. SAYS ANY SUCH DEAL WOULD TRIGGER SANCTIONS
*U.S. HAS CONVEYED CONCERNS TO IRANIAN GOVT THROUGH ALL CHANNELS
We suspect these sanctions would have more teeth than some travel bans, but, as we noted previously,
it is just as likely to be another epic geopolitical debacle resulting
from what was originally intended to be a demonstration of strength and
instead is rapidly turning out into a terminal confirmation of weakness.
As we explained earlier in the week, Russia seems perfectly happy to telegraph that it is just as willing to use barter (and “heaven forbid” gold) and shortly other “regional” currencies, as it is to use the US Dollar, hardly the intended outcome of the western blockade, which appears to have just backfired and further impacted the untouchable status of the Petrodollar. …
“If
Washington can’t stop this deal, it could serve as a signal to other
countries that the United States won’t risk major diplomatic disputes at
the expense of the sanctions regime,”
The US dollar’s position as the base currency for global energy trading gives the US a number of unfair advantages. It seems that Moscow is ready to take those advantages away. (4)
The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer want to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. Dollar has held a dominant position in global trading for such a long time that even Gazprom’s natural gas contracts for Europe are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.
Lately, China has led the BRICS efforts to dislodge the dollar
from its position as the main global currency, but the “sanctions war”
between Washington and Moscow gave an impetus to the long-awaited scheme
to launch the petroruble and switch all Russian energy exports away
from the US currency .
The
main supporters of this plan are Sergey Glaziev, the economic aide of
the Russian President and Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft, the
biggest Russian oil company and a close ally of Vladimir Putin. Both
have been very vocal in their quest to replace the dollar with the
Russian ruble. Now, several top Russian officials are pushing the plan
forward.
First, it was the Minister of Economy, Alexei Ulyukaev who told Russia 24 news channel that the Russian energy companies must should ditch the dollar. “ They must be braver in signing contracts in rubles and the currencies of partner-countries, ” he said.
Then, on March 2, Andrei Kostin, the CEO of state-owned VTB bank, told the press that Gazprom, Rosneft and Rosoboronexport, state company specialized in weapon exports, can start trading in rubles. “ I’ve spoken to Gazprom, to Rosneft and Rosoboronexport management and they don’t mind switching their exports to rubles. They only need a mechanism to do that ”, Kostin told the attendees of the annual Russian Bank Association meeting.
Judging by the statement made at the same meeting by Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, it is safe to assume that no resources will be spared to create such a mechanism. “ Some ‘hot headed’ decision-makers have already forgotten that the global economic crisis of 2008 – which is still taking its toll on the world – started with a collapse of certain credit institutions in the US, Great Britain and other countries. This is why we believe that any hostile financial actions are a double-edged sword and even the slightest error will send the boomerang back to the aborigines,” she said.
It seems that Moscow has decided who will be in charge of the “boomerang”. Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft, has been nominated to chair the board of directors of Saint-Petersburg Commodity Exchange, a specialized commodity exchange. In October 2013, speaking at the World Energy Congress in Korea, Sechin called for a “global mechanism to trade natural gas” and went on suggesting that “ it was advisable to create an international exchange for the participating countries, where transactions could be registered with the use of regional currencies “. Now, one of the most influential leaders of the global energy trading community has the perfect instrument to make this plan a reality. A Russian commodity exchange where reference prices for Russian oil and natural gas will be set in rubles instead of dollars will be a strong blow to the petrodollar.
Rosneft
has recently signed a series of big contracts for oil exports to China
and is close to signing a “jumbo deal” with Indian companies.
In both deals, there are no US dollars involved. Reuters reports, that
Russia is close to entering a goods-for-oil swap transaction with Iran
that will give Rosneft around 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day to
sell in the global market. The White House and the russophobes in the
Senate are livid and are trying to block the transaction because it
opens up some very serious and nasty scenarios for the petrodollar. If
Sechin decides to sell this Iranian oil for rubles, through a Russian
exchange, such move will boost the chances of the “petroruble” and will
hurt the petrodollar.
It can be said that the US sanctions have opened a Pandora’s box of troubles for the American currency. The
Russian retaliation will surely be unpleasant for Washington, but what
happens if other oil producers and consumers decide to follow the
example set by Russia? During the last month, China opened two
centers to process yuan-denominated trade flows, one in London and one
in Frankfurt. Are the Chinese preparing a similar move against the
greenback? We’ll soon find out.
Finally, those curious what may happen next, only not to Iran but to Russia, are encouraged to read “From Petrodollar To Petrogold: The US Is Now Trying To Cut Off Iran’s Access To Gold.” (5)
Source:http://www.globalresearch.ca
War Is Coming!
In early March, the Russian Federation, after staging a referendum under Kalashnikovs in Crimea, proceeded to annex the region and laid the groundwork -- according to Moscow -- for "new political-legal realities," that is to say, a new Russian paradigm for a lawless world. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in her speech to the Bundestag on March 13, Russia is bringing the law of the jungle to the table. For those of us who have lived through Vladimir Putin's attempts to reverse the results of what he calls "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century -- the dissolution of the Soviet Union -- what is happening in Ukraine is not unexpected. Nor does it mark the last act of the drama.
It should be abundantly clear now that Putin's initial plan of taking eastern Ukraine by mobilizing the Russian population there has failed. But that doesn't mean he's giving up. Russian strategists are talking about a "weekend of rage" that could involve some kind of armed siege of government buildings in southern and eastern Ukraine. If these local provocateurs and "self-defense forces" manage to hold these buildings as they did in Crimea, it might serve as a basis for further military intervention. Not that we should be surprised by this cynical playbook any more.
History can be a useful guide for politicians: first, to help prevent new disasters, and second, to help react to disasters that inevitably happen anyway, despite the best laid plans. And yet, plenty of politicians are making the same mistakes they should have learned from decades ago. These days, I can't help but be reminded of Yogi Berra's famous quote, "It's déjà vu, all over again."
In Chechnya, tens of thousands of people were killed just to make Putin president and consolidate his power. Then, when the Colored Revolutions -- and their successful reforms -- became a menace to his rule, he invaded Georgia in order to kill this contagious model and again reconfirm his power. Now, as before, faced with eroding popularity in Russia, a shale gas revolution in North America, and the need for consistent port access to equip his allies in the Middle East, Putin attacked Ukraine and seized Crimea.
And yet, even with these myriad examples, the West continues to misunderstand or excuse Putin's aggression. These days, many pundits are busy with soul-searching, with one of the constant refrains being how the West overreached with NATO and EU expansion, and how it needlessly provoked the Russian bear. The conclusion they come to is that part of the reason for Russia's behavior, however petulant, lies in Western activism. It's a particular kind of intellectual self-flagellation and, for Putin, a reflection of Western weakness that only emboldens him.
Neville Chamberlain, when presenting the case for the great European powers to acquiesce to Hitler's occupation of the Sudetenland, argued that Europeans should not care about a "quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing." I hear a lot of pundits now talking about the "asymmetry of interests," implying that Russia is entitled to annex neighboring countries' lands for the simple reason that it cares for these lands more than the West. Others opine that we should all get used to the idea that the Crimea is gone, and that Russia will never give it back. This is exactly what I was told in the summer of 2008 -- that I should be resigned to the idea that a part of Georgian territory, then occupied by Russia, was gone for good.
But this logic has its continuation. As we know from history, the cycles of appeasement usually get shorter with geometric progression. Soon, the same pundits may declare -- with their best poker faces on -- that now Moldova is "lost," or Latvia "lost," even some province of Poland. And just because Russia is not in the mood to give it back.
The biggest casualty for the West will not be the countries which already are, or strive to be, Western allies, but rather the principles on which the Western world is built.
The biggest casualty for the West will not be the countries which already are, or strive to be, Western allies, but rather the principles on which the Western world is built. The truth is that Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova are being punished by Russia for their desire to live in a free and democratic society -- one very different from the Putin model.
Certainly, Moscow didn't seem to care much about the minority Russian populations in its near abroad -- so long as they were comfortably ruled by corrupt cronies of the Kremlin. But over the ensuing decade, Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova have learned to look to the West, not so much because of geopolitical priorities, but because people there aspire to a Western way of life that respects human rights and universal values. For this reason, the West must shelter these countries not just out of pragmatic calculations, but for the very principles that turned the Western democracies into the most successful societies in history.
The basic facts are very clear. Russia presents the greatest challenge to international law and order since the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. And even though the West has much greater superiority over Russia -- both economically and militarily -- than it ever had over the Soviet Union, today's leaders are reluctant to take advantage of this asymmetry.
The problem, perhaps, is due to the ambivalence of most regional experts that guide Western leaders' thinking. Their fundamental misreading of Russia is based on the fact that they don't understand the difference between the Soviet nomenclatura and modern Russia's corrupt elite. They grossly underestimate the attachment of Russian elites to their mansions and bank accounts in the West. Likewise, Moscow's key decision-makers are way more dependent financially and psychologically on the West than the bureaucrats of the Brezhnev era. Sanctions can successfully divide this group from Putin's inside circle, but they have to go further and exact greater pain.
And yet, despite President Barack Obama's rhetoric, the West -- particularly Europe -- appears reluctant to impose tougher sanctions. Unlike during the Cold War, Western companies draw much more benefit from Russia today, and thus they too will have to pay the price of sanctions. But after the first round of sanctions, stocks rebounded as markets were relieved that the measures didn't seem far-reaching. So how does the West expect to be taken seriously by Putin when even Wall Street isn't buying the seriousness of the Western alliance's intentions? The dilemma is simple: Is the West willing to pay this price now, or delay the decision and pay a much higher price in the future?
The choice can best be described in medical terms. The cancer of Russian aggression first showed up in Georgia, but the West decided to neglect the diagnosis and preferred to treat the illness with aspirin. Crimea is the metastasis of what happened in Georgia, and yet the West is still excluding the surgical option -- that is to say military intervention -- as carrying too high a risk. But at least it should apply chemotherapy. Yes, this means that the West will feel the effects of its own drugs, and particularly European companies in the short term. But in the long term, this painful dose is the only way to help kill the cancer that is Putin.
Winston Churchill once prophetically told Hitler's appeasers: "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war." Surely, we cannot expect modern-day politicians obsessed with polls and midterm elections to be Churchillian all the time. But at a minimum they should not want to go down in history as the Neville Chamberlains of the 21st century. And misreading Putin for the man that he is -- and has always been -- is at the heart of appeasement.
Russia Says Intercepted US Drone Over
Crimea
A
United States surveillance drone
has been intercepted above the Ukranian region of Crimea, a Russian
state arms and technology group said Friday. "The
drone was flying at about 4,000 metres (12,000 feet) and was virtually
invisible from the ground. It was possible to break the link with US
operators with complex radio-electronic" technology, said Rostec in a
statement. The drone fell
"almost intact into the hands of self-defence forces" added Rostec,
which said it had manufactured the equipment used to down the aircraft,
but did not specify who was operating it. "Judging
by its identification number, UAV MQ-5B belonged to the 66th American
Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria," Rostec said on its website,
which also carried a picture of what it said was the captured drone. The
photograph appeared to show an apparently armed drone in flight, rather
than debris. The Crimean port of Sevastopol is home to Russia's Black
Sea Fleet, which is believed to be equipped with detection equipment.
Crimea,
where pro-Kremlin forces have control, is to hold a referendum on
Sunday on the peninsula joining Russia, in what Moscow says is a fair
expression of self identity but the West views as an illegal annexation
of sovereign territory.
The Ukrainian crisis – a cyber warfare battlefield
The crisis in Ukraine was the largest battlefield of
cyber war since Russia’s cyber-attacks on Estonia in 2007 and Georgia in
2008. Simon Tsipis, cyber warfare researcher at the INSS think tank reports.
Russia has managed to hit almost all Ukraine
government websites and it was able to take control and to put on
surveillance and monitoring all the Internet and telephone
communications lines, before the invasion and occupation of Crimea by its military. Russian
Special Forces managed to derail all important communications systems
through direct physical impact on them by combined field and high-tech
operation.
Cyber espionage is an integral part of military strategy and foreign policy of Russia
towards the countries of the former Soviet Union. Being able to access
information systems of diplomatic, government and military organizations
for many years, since the USSR collapse, giving Russia a huge advantage
in predicting their tactics, actions and analyzing the thinking of
their neighbours.
The largest military cyber attack was the attack implemented by the Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) on the armed forces of Ukraine, as reported by BBC. According to the law enforcement agencies of Ukraine, Russian cyber attacks collapsed the communication systems of almost all Ukrainian forces that were based in Crimea
that could pose danger to the invading Russian troops. Attacks of a
lesser scale were directed at government websites, news and social
networks. Similar handwriting and set of actions has been committed by
the Russian military during the war against Georgia, a fact which
suggests that the invasion operation in the Crimea
has been carefully planned in advance. The Head of the Security Service
of Ukraine, Valentin Nalevaychenko admitted, that mobile communication
systems of members of the Ukrainian government were attacked in order to
neutralize and disrupt communication between government agencies. As
the Ukrainian company Ukrtelecom announced, unmarked gunmen penetrated
into their infrastructure objects and the optical fiber and conductor
units were knocked out, which in turn led to the collapse of all
communication. Despite this, western experts say that Russian forces
were relatively moderate in their actions and are able to engage much
more global cyber-attacks.
Being able to access information systems of diplomatic, government and military organizations for many years, since the USSR collapse, gave Russia a huge advantage in predicting their tactics, actions and analyzing the thinking of their neighbours
According to a former senior officer of
the CIA’s Special Operations department Marty Martin, the more extreme
attacks will be held by the Russians in case of greater escalation of
the conflict. “Sometimes it is useful to keep some lines of
communication working, in order to be able to monitor and control, than
completely derail them and deprive yourself from intelligence sources.”
says Martin. In fact, experts say, no one in the world so far, including
the CIA, is not able to assess the possibility of Russian
cyber-capabilities as large-scale conflict with its participation yet
haven’t been at place.
Additional obstacle to Western intelligence
agencies, in the definition of “friend or foe” and who on which side,
was the fact that both sides are communicating virtually on the same
language, writing scripts by the similar rules and often attack each
other with similar IP addresses.
A founder of U.S. cyber security
consulting company “Red Branch Consulting” Paul Rozenshveyg argues that
Russia is quite strong in cyber, but he warns that we should not
overestimate the cyber-space as a place of major future wars, in
comparison with ground operations, if the situation gets out of control.
“Cyber attacks will not bring much damage,” Paul said “when the tanks
will get on course.”
According to the director of the California
based privet cyber-security company “CrowdStrike” Dmitri Alperovitch,
there have been observed a great amount of cyber attacks and
surveillance activity in Ukraine cyberspace during the crisis. Dmitry
also said that despite the fact that both the Ukrainian and Russian
hackers came out of the same “schools”, the difference in the
capabilities of Russia and Ukraine is essential. Russia, he said, ranks
among world leaders for its cyber capabilities, while Ukraine “doesn’t
even come close to a third …”
Another expert in this field, the
director of the initiative group “Atlantic Council on the State of
Cyber-management” and former adviser on cyber-security issues of the
White House, for the Bush administration, Jason Harley, argues that
today we are witnessing a different approach to cyber warfare from the
Russian side, rather than in the conflicts in Georgia and Estonia.
Moscow, he says, applied in the Ukrainian case, higher level of
“hands-on” attacks. This is, an old school Cold War tactics. Physical
contact with cyber equipment in hostile territory is an old, and far not
ineffectual way, the Russian security services used to work in the
past. In the near future, we will see more large-scale operations by
such means, he added. In the case of Ukraine, there was absolutely no
difficulty for Russian special forces to penetrate any military or
strategic facility in Ukraine, since the equipment and facilities were
built by the same experts when the two countries were under one rule.
The Russian intelligence services are possessing all the required
documents and location maps of all the important objects in the
territory of the former Soviet Union, as well as specialists, some of
whom participated in the construction of these objects and are today
reside in Russia. Thus, says Harley, any kind of intervention or
sabotage in the former Soviet Union territories, can be quickly and
efficiently suppressed by Russian security services, which makes such
attempts almost meaningless. Today, all cyber-space mainly based on
remote attacks such as denial-of-service (DDoS), while if physical
penetration and chopping off or putting under control of telephone and
Internet communication is possible, remote attacks lose most of its
effect.
One of the techniques used by the Russians for cyber
espionage was the “Snake”, also known as Ouroboros and Uroburos. It was
developed in Russia at least four years ago, with some elements of
software created in 2005. Its name, Urobos has been taken from Greek
mythology and it is capable of inducing chaos in communication system,
and this is exactly what it did in Ukraine. What’s interesting about it
is the fact, that it is able to combine two in one. It is able to be
used as stealthy means for network surveillance and data collection, it
can also carry out a ‘warhead’ – able to physically destroy computer
networks specifically targeted by its operators. The use of Urobos,
along with the physical attacks against networks therefore combined both
“old school” operations with modern, cyber warfare techniques to gain
the desired impact.
While Russian cyber operations in Ukraine were
based on the experience and lessons learned from previous attacks on
Estonia and Georgia, they haven’t left ‘fingerprints’ leading to the
sources. Todays cyber wars are waged in a domain that lacks rules of
war, what could bring a country threatened by such all-out cyber
offensive to turn to physical retaliation, in the absence of effective
international legal and cyber security tools.
As for the Ukraine,
some details on the use of cyber-means in the country are now been
disclosed. The extents of the corruption of the Yanukovych’s government,
after his overthrow, are crawling out. It became known that in December
2013, when the confrontation on Independence square (the Maydan) were
gaining strength, Ukrainian hackers have posted online information about
some senior members of the government that appealed to them with
requests to crack Internet sites and other resources of the State
Government Organizations for personal means. Thus, on the night of
December 23 2013, all sites of Ukrainian government were hacked by the
cyber-activists. However, hackers have published the stolen information
in the public domain, admitting that they were forced to do so, as they
had not been paid for hacking the databases. Furthermore, according to
those hackers, First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
and the former chairman of the State Customs Service of Ukraine Igor
Kalyetnik addressed them, requesting access to the Unified State
Register of Voters of Ukraine. He asked for “full control over more than
a hundred public mailboxes of government members. In addition, hackers
received a request to access the e-mail of the Chairman of the Verkhovna
Rada of Ukraine Volodymir Rybak and Minister of Internal Affairs of
Ukraine Vitaliy Zakharchenko.
It
is important, that in addition to mail-boxes, Kalyetnik wished to
establish control over personal mobile devices of the aforementioned
officials. According to cyber criminals, there is still a lot of
information at their disposal, and they intend to publish the data of
the Ministry of Finance, bank account numbers and other details of the
Treasury of Ukraine.
Cyber events during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
December 16,
2003: Ukrainian hackers group “KiberBerkut” direct an attack against
several NATO websites, their actions were attributed to the presence of
“the NATO occupiers” on Ukraine territory.
“March 7, 2014: Attacks
are directed against Russian news and media websites, the Ukrainian
hackers group “Kibersotnya” claimed to be responsible for the collapse
of the site “Russian newspaper”. Another cyber attack has undergone news
agency Lenta.ru, administration.
March 9, 2014: Indian government
confirms that a military documents concerning Indo-Russian negotiations
over fighter aircraft were compromised by unknown hackers. The
assumption is that someone, not necessarily Ukraine, trying to explore
the possibilities of Russian Air Forces, through hacking databases with
such information that are available in other country’s air-forces whose
systems are much less secure than the Russia’s.
March 14, 2014:
Russian armed forces were able to intercept and seize American
reconnaissance and strike UAV over Crimea. The drone, an Israeli built
MQ-5B ‘Hunter’, one of 18 operated by the US Army’s 66th Military
Intelligence Brigade. The unit regularly stationed in Bavaria, Germany
was transferred to Ukrainian Kirovograd in early March, from where the
UAVs performed reconnaissance raids over Ukraine, Crimea and the Russian
border regions.
March 14, 2014: Multiple Distributed Denial of
Service (DDoS) attacks, allegedly by Ukrainian hackers, are directed at
Russian government and commercial websites. Targets include the Mr.
Putin’s presidential website, the official government website and the
Central Bank of Russia, Portals of the Russian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and energy consortium Gazprom. As suggested by the FSB, all the
attacks committed by Ukrainian hackers or hackers hired by Ukrainian
opposition but, Russian law enforcement agencies also do not rule out
the fact that in those attacks may have been involved foreign
individuals or entities as well.
March 17, 2014: VTB and the Alpha
bank, two of the largest Russian banks, suffer major cyber attacks
damaging the on-line banking service and credit organization. An
anonymous Caucasus hacker group took responsibility for those attacks.
Pentagon Moves to Block Russian Spy Plane in American Skies
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. military and American
intelligence agencies have quietly pushed the White House in recent
weeks to deny a new Russian surveillance plane the right to fly over
U.S. territory. This week, the White House finally began consideration
of the decision whether to certify the new Russian aircraft under the
so-called “Open Skies Treaty.” And now the question becomes: Will the
spies and generals get their way?
As
the United States and Russia face off publicly over Ukraine, behind the
scenes, President Obama’s national security cabinet is having its own
quiet feud over a long-standing agreement to allow Russian surveillance
flights over U.S. airspace.
The spies and the generals want to deny the Russians the overflight
rights for its latest surveillance planes. The State Department, which
ultimately makes that decision, has favored such certification. On
Wednesday an interagency meeting of senior officials failed to reach
consensus, delaying the decision until Obama takes it up with the
National Security Council, according to U.S. officials involved in the
dispute.
At issue is the Open Skies Treaty. First signed in 1992
and finally ratified in 2002, the treaty adopted by 34 nations allows
the safe passage of planes equipped with advanced cameras and sensors
that give governments the imagery and data they use to assess everything
from compliance with arms control treaties to troop movements.
On
April 15, the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services
Committee, Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon, and the Republican chairman of
that panel’s subcommittee that oversees the U.S. nuclear arsenal, Rep.
Mike Rogers from Alabama, urged Obama to deny Russia the right to fly
its new planes over U.S. airspace.
In their letter, the two lawmakers write, “We agree with the concerns
expressed by the Intelligence Community and the military leadership of
the Department of Defense” in their opposition to certifying the new
Russian planes under the treaty.
The State Department on the other hand has argued the United States
should live up to the treaty's obligations and approve the new Russian
aircraft. The decision to certify the planes and their sensors has been
pending since late last year, long before the Ukraine crisis began. One
senior U.S. official said, “This isn’t just an issue between the United
States and Russia. Our allies and partners depend on this treaty for
insight into Russia because they don’t have the same capabilities as the
United States.”
The Russians use the aircraft today to monitor U.S. nuclear weapons
as part of arms control agreements between both countries. The Russian
planes, according to U.S. officials involved in the dispute, contain a
new sensor package that would allow Moscow to surveil American nuclear
assets with a level of precision and detail that makes U.S. military and
intelligence leaders deeply uncomfortable.
A letter first published by the Weekly Standard on April 13
from two Republican and two Democratic members of the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence said the Russian Federation had just completed
construction of aircraft that will “support digital photograph
equipment, sideways-looking synthetic aperture radar, and infrared
equipment.”
A U.S. official familiar with the dispute and
sympathetic to the concerns of the military and intelligence community
told The Daily Beast that the worry over the new Russian aircraft is
independent of the standoff in Ukraine. “This would have been an issue
even if there was no Ukraine crisis,” this official said.
In some
ways, however, the Ukraine showdown has placed pressure the White House
to hold off on further angering the Russians. The State Department,
which has worked with Russia to iron out at least an agreement in
principle to begin to disarm the pro-Russian militias that have seized
eastern Ukrainian cities, wants to allow the new Russian aircraft to fly
over U.S. airspace.
The Ukraine crisis has complicated the decision-making process on the
Open Skies issue. Ukraine’s military has still failed to take back
cities that have fallen to militias that Western leaders have said
publicly are orchestrated by Russia’s special operations units known as
the Spetsnaz.
In Geneva, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov announced the beginning of a process to de-escalate the
crisis. But Lavrov also promised Kerry there were no military plans to
take Crimea in late February, only to see Spetsnaz soldiers in uniforms
without insignia take the peninsula's airports and government
buildings.
Source: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles
Source: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles
Pentagon: Russian fighter jet buzzed US destroyer in Black Sea
The Pentagon said a Russian fighter jet made multiple close-range
passes near an American navy destroyer. The warship was deployed in the
Black Sea as Russian military monitored NATO’s systematic build-up of
naval forces in the region.
"This provocative and unprofessional Russian action is
inconsistent with their national protocols and previous
agreements on the professional interaction between our
militaries," said Colonel Steve Warren, a Pentagon
spokesman. "I have difficulty believing that two Russian pilots on their
own would choose to take such an action."
Pentagon defined the jet as a Russian Su-24 aircraft, or Fencer,
which made 12 passes at low altitude near the USS Donald Cook
that, at the time, was conducting a patrol in international
waters in the western Black Sea, Reuters reported. Earlier, a military official told AP that on April, 12, a Russian
aircraft flew repeatedly within 1,000 yards of the USS Donald
Cook at about 500 feet above sea level for over 90 minutes. According to the official, the destroyer’s crew made several
attempts to radio the Russian warplane requesting the reason for
the manoeuvre. They then reportedly issued warnings to remain at
a safe distance, however, there was no response from the Russian
pilot. Pentagon confirmed the fighter jet was not armed with any aerial
bombs. A second jet was observed was observed slightly further from the
ship.
"The Donald Cook is more than capable of defending herself
against two Su-24s," said Warren. USS Donald Cook, a destroyer equipped with the powerful Aegis
missile defense system, entered Black Sea on April, 10. The US Defense Department claimed the ship’s mission was “to
reassure NATO allies and Black Sea partners” following the
events in Ukraine. On Monday, the USS Donald Cook entered waters of Romania.
‘NATO violates Montreux Convention’
‘NATO violates Montreux Convention’
Last week the Russian military considered the USS Donald Cook manoeuvre part of a systematic build-up of naval forces. “What we are seeing is that for the first time since 2008, NATO is creating a naval battle group outside Russian borders,” a Russian military source told Interfax news agency.
On April, 3, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused NATO of
violating the Montreux Convention, which regulates the number
ships that can enter the Black Sea, saying that “US warships
have extended their deployment beyond the set terms a couple of
times lately.” According to the treaty, warships from non-Black Sea states can
only stay in the basin for up to 21 days consecutively. USS
Taylor spent 11 more than that in the region in February and
March. Russia’s Foreign Ministry expressed “bemusement” over
the move. “Turkey [which administers the treaty] did not inform us
about the overstay. We have expressed our concern to the Turkish
and US side in a verbal note,” said a statement on the
ministry website
Pentagon to Russia: Call us, please?
Meanwhile, Warren said, the U.S. has observed increased activity among the Russian ground and air units posted near the country’s border with Ukraine. Armor, mechanized infantry and airborne units are on the move, he said.
“We’ve tried to make clear to the Russians that Secretary Hagel is available for a phone call anytime, but we have not heard back,” Warren said. The Pentagon made its overture “within the past 24 hours,” he added.
Hagel is in Guatemala on a three-day trip to Central America, but defense officials have said his military aircraft, designed as a flying Cold War command and control center, would enable him to connect from anywhere. He doesn’t have a new message to deliver to Moscow, Warren said, but he wants to reiterate the same one again.
“The secretary wants to continue to call on the Russians to de-escalate the situation with Ukraine,” Warren said.
Reports about the increased Russian military activity come from “multiple sources,” Warren said. The Russian military movements include both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters — “all flavors of the Russian combined arms force,” he said.
The uptick in activity could be linked with Russian announcements that Moscow is planning new military exercises of its own to coincide with the arrival of American paratroopers in Eastern Europe. A second company of about 150 soldiers from the 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team (Airborne) arrived Friday in Latvia, following an earlier detachment that flew to Poland.
Two more similar-sized companies are due in Estonia and Lithuania by Monday, the Pentagon said. Hagel first mentioned his desire to talk with Shoygu on Thursday during a stop in Mexico City. He said he wanted to ask the Russians directly about U.S. intelligence reports about the increased military activity on the border.
“I don’t have all of the facts,” he said, “but, in fact, if these reports that I’ve received are accurate, then this is dangerously destabilizing. And it’s very provocative. It does not de-escalate. In fact, these activities escalate. They make it more difficult to try to find a diplomatic, peaceful resolution … to that issue.”
Source: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/russia-phone-call-request-ukraine-106027.html#ixzz2zvFafhGZ
NATO military response 'almost unthinkable'
How would NATO react if Russia invaded Ukraine?
My feeling is that NATO would condemn this very strongly. But if people expect NATO to protect eastern Ukraine militarily and defend it - I think they're mistaken. I don't think there's willingness on behalf of any NATO member state to commit NATO troops to defending eastern Ukraine. So we will not see military action. That's a pretty safe bet and that's what Mr. Putin knows.
Ukraine is not a NATO member. But wouldn't a Russian invasion of Ukraine mean that NATO members, such as in the Baltics or in Poland, could feel that their territorial integrity is even more threatened?
These countries have, for a long time, felt threatened over the Ukraine developments. We've seen NATO planning on how to increase troop presence there, how to reassure these countries and how to make it clear that the Article 5 borders - the borders of NATO solidarity - will be defended. The US is currently holding military exercises in Poland. Germany has earmarked planes for air policing into the Baltic area later this year, and other countries have committed similar kinds of assets. That's the right thing to do. But it's almost unthinkable to have a military response in reaction to an attack on Ukrainian territory.
It's very hard to say how this is being perceived in Moscow. The goal of the Russian policies at the moment is to regain political control over all of Ukraine - either very quickly or over the next one or two years. [Russia] has played things very systematically over the last few weeks. This is the one thing that Putin has to achieve, because under his watch Russia "lost" Ukraine, if you will. Now he needs to right that wrong from his perspective. That's the goal. Touching Article 5 territory is not his operational goal at this point so far.
Just to get this clear: You say Russia's operational goal is to regain control over all of Ukraine - including the west of the country, including Kyiv?
I'm talking about political control - I'm not talking about occupying the entire country. I'm pretty convinced that it is not in Russian interests to have a military operation in all of Ukraine. But the ultimate goal is to regain political control over who governs the country. Russia thought it was safe with [former Ukrainian President] Yanukovych. They had banked on him to basically hold the fort and to stay in power even throughout the entire Maidan process.
They miscalculated. Yanukovych fled from office, and now they need to regain control. This is the strategic goal of Russia - to keep Ukraine as tightly associated as possible, to tie it into its sphere of influence. What they ultimately want is to have somebody in power who's Russia-friendly. That's not the case at the moment, and that's something they want to change.
The goal is that this new government, the current post-revolutionary government, cannot succeed. It must be undermined. It must be unable to consolidate the country. It must be unable to conduct a proper constitutional process in the next couple of months. And it must also fail - from the Russian perspective - to consolidate the economy.
The big question is whether Russia is playing this as a short-term game over the next few weeks - basically until the elections in Kyiv in late May - or whether we're looking at two years or so. I can't judge that. But the goal itself is pretty clear.
Russia has said that it was willing to hold constructive and unbiased talks with the US over the situation in Ukraine, but at the same time it accuses the US of wanting to seize Ukraine. What could come out of talks between Russia and the US?
Russia has always been of the opinion - and this is on the record - that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation, that it is not even considered a country. Putin has said that repeatedly. And so the idea of Ukraine deciding its own political fate, which is what the Maidan revolution and the current political parties in Kyiv want, is completely a taboo for the Russian side.
That is not something the Americans want. The Americans have repeatedly said that their ultimate goal is that Ukraine can make a sovereign decision about its own political future. This is where the major conflict lies.
The peace deal that was brokered in Geneva recently was never actually abided by. President Obama says Russia has violated it, and that, together with the Europeans, further economic sanctions have to be considered. Will we see the West imposing what they call level 3 sanctions?
There are two elements in this: first of all, the Geneva talks - as it now turns out - were very clearly a time game for the Russian side. Russia immediately afterwards turned the provision of the Geneva agreement around and accused the government in Kyiv of having violated the agreement immediately. It was a very interesting and very smart game that Russia played in order to get some legitimacy for its own actions.
The second thing is the question of sanctions. Level 3 would include massive economic sanctions. My feeling is that the Europeans don't want to go there - partly because of German reservations, but not only. That may even be true in the case of an outright political invasion, which is in theory the trigger for level 3.
And then there's a second element to all of this: the division between the Americans and the Europeans. The Americans have now decided to play this tough, and to be very robust on Russia, and to not let this kind of Russian attack on the post-Cold War order in Europe stand. But the Europeans are not anywhere near that. The Europeans are playing it a lot softer, and are a lot more wedded to the diplomatic approach, with soft sanctions. What we therefore see is not only a division amongst the Europeans, but also a division between the Americans and the Europeans. And that doesn't bode well for a very united and forceful position vis-a-vis Russia.
So Ukraine, in other words, can't rely on the West for support, because the West is divided. Will Ukraine remain a sovereign country?
That is completely open.
My feeling is that if the current situation persists - and we kind of anticipate that - time plays against Ukraine. And that would of course be a devastating blow to the entire European peace system after the Cold War, where it was clear that territorial integrity needed to be accepted and guaranteed. And now we're back to a system where force prevails, and where the country that is bold enough and forceful enough can redraw the map. And that is not a kind of Europe which looks terribly attractive for the future.
Jan Techau is the director of Brussels-based Carnegie Europe, the European think tank of the Carnegie Endowment for International peace.
My feeling is that NATO would condemn this very strongly. But if people expect NATO to protect eastern Ukraine militarily and defend it - I think they're mistaken. I don't think there's willingness on behalf of any NATO member state to commit NATO troops to defending eastern Ukraine. So we will not see military action. That's a pretty safe bet and that's what Mr. Putin knows.
Ukraine is not a NATO member. But wouldn't a Russian invasion of Ukraine mean that NATO members, such as in the Baltics or in Poland, could feel that their territorial integrity is even more threatened?
These countries have, for a long time, felt threatened over the Ukraine developments. We've seen NATO planning on how to increase troop presence there, how to reassure these countries and how to make it clear that the Article 5 borders - the borders of NATO solidarity - will be defended. The US is currently holding military exercises in Poland. Germany has earmarked planes for air policing into the Baltic area later this year, and other countries have committed similar kinds of assets. That's the right thing to do. But it's almost unthinkable to have a military response in reaction to an attack on Ukrainian territory.
It's very hard to say how this is being perceived in Moscow. The goal of the Russian policies at the moment is to regain political control over all of Ukraine - either very quickly or over the next one or two years. [Russia] has played things very systematically over the last few weeks. This is the one thing that Putin has to achieve, because under his watch Russia "lost" Ukraine, if you will. Now he needs to right that wrong from his perspective. That's the goal. Touching Article 5 territory is not his operational goal at this point so far.
Just to get this clear: You say Russia's operational goal is to regain control over all of Ukraine - including the west of the country, including Kyiv?
I'm talking about political control - I'm not talking about occupying the entire country. I'm pretty convinced that it is not in Russian interests to have a military operation in all of Ukraine. But the ultimate goal is to regain political control over who governs the country. Russia thought it was safe with [former Ukrainian President] Yanukovych. They had banked on him to basically hold the fort and to stay in power even throughout the entire Maidan process.
They miscalculated. Yanukovych fled from office, and now they need to regain control. This is the strategic goal of Russia - to keep Ukraine as tightly associated as possible, to tie it into its sphere of influence. What they ultimately want is to have somebody in power who's Russia-friendly. That's not the case at the moment, and that's something they want to change.
The goal is that this new government, the current post-revolutionary government, cannot succeed. It must be undermined. It must be unable to consolidate the country. It must be unable to conduct a proper constitutional process in the next couple of months. And it must also fail - from the Russian perspective - to consolidate the economy.
The big question is whether Russia is playing this as a short-term game over the next few weeks - basically until the elections in Kyiv in late May - or whether we're looking at two years or so. I can't judge that. But the goal itself is pretty clear.
Russia has said that it was willing to hold constructive and unbiased talks with the US over the situation in Ukraine, but at the same time it accuses the US of wanting to seize Ukraine. What could come out of talks between Russia and the US?
Russia has always been of the opinion - and this is on the record - that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation, that it is not even considered a country. Putin has said that repeatedly. And so the idea of Ukraine deciding its own political fate, which is what the Maidan revolution and the current political parties in Kyiv want, is completely a taboo for the Russian side.
That is not something the Americans want. The Americans have repeatedly said that their ultimate goal is that Ukraine can make a sovereign decision about its own political future. This is where the major conflict lies.
The peace deal that was brokered in Geneva recently was never actually abided by. President Obama says Russia has violated it, and that, together with the Europeans, further economic sanctions have to be considered. Will we see the West imposing what they call level 3 sanctions?
There are two elements in this: first of all, the Geneva talks - as it now turns out - were very clearly a time game for the Russian side. Russia immediately afterwards turned the provision of the Geneva agreement around and accused the government in Kyiv of having violated the agreement immediately. It was a very interesting and very smart game that Russia played in order to get some legitimacy for its own actions.
The second thing is the question of sanctions. Level 3 would include massive economic sanctions. My feeling is that the Europeans don't want to go there - partly because of German reservations, but not only. That may even be true in the case of an outright political invasion, which is in theory the trigger for level 3.
And then there's a second element to all of this: the division between the Americans and the Europeans. The Americans have now decided to play this tough, and to be very robust on Russia, and to not let this kind of Russian attack on the post-Cold War order in Europe stand. But the Europeans are not anywhere near that. The Europeans are playing it a lot softer, and are a lot more wedded to the diplomatic approach, with soft sanctions. What we therefore see is not only a division amongst the Europeans, but also a division between the Americans and the Europeans. And that doesn't bode well for a very united and forceful position vis-a-vis Russia.
So Ukraine, in other words, can't rely on the West for support, because the West is divided. Will Ukraine remain a sovereign country?
That is completely open.
My feeling is that if the current situation persists - and we kind of anticipate that - time plays against Ukraine. And that would of course be a devastating blow to the entire European peace system after the Cold War, where it was clear that territorial integrity needed to be accepted and guaranteed. And now we're back to a system where force prevails, and where the country that is bold enough and forceful enough can redraw the map. And that is not a kind of Europe which looks terribly attractive for the future.
Jan Techau is the director of Brussels-based Carnegie Europe, the European think tank of the Carnegie Endowment for International peace.
Source: http://www.dw.de/nato-military-response-almost-unthinkable/a-17592366
New U.S. Stealth Jet Can’t Hide From Russian Radar
America’s
gazillion-dollar Joint Strike Fighter is supposed to go virtually
unseen when flying over enemy turf. But that’s not how things are
working out.
The F-35
Joint Strike Fighter—the jet that the Pentagon is counting on to be the
stealthy future of its tactical aircraft—is having all sorts of
shortcomings. But the most serious may be that the JSF is not, in fact,
stealthy in the eyes of a growing number of Russian and Chinese radars.
Nor is it particularly good at jamming enemy radar. Which means the
Defense Department is committing hundreds of billions of dollars to a
fighter that will need the help of specialized jamming aircraft that
protect non-stealthy—“radar-shiny,” as some insiders call them—aircraft
today.
These
problems are not secret at all. The F-35 is susceptible to detection by
radars operating in the VHF bands of the spectrum. The fighter’s
jamming is mostly confined to the X-band, in the sector covered by its
APG-81 radar. These are not criticisms of the program but the result of
choices by the customer, the Pentagon.
To suggest that the F-35 is
VHF-stealthy is like arguing that the sky is not blue—literally,
because both involve the same phenomenon. The late-Victorian physicist
Lord Rayleigh gave his name to the way that electromagnetic radiation is
scattered by objects that are smaller than its wavelength. This applies
to the particles in the air that scatter sunlight, and aircraft
stabilizers and wingtips that are about the same meter-class size as VHF
waves.
The counter-stealth attributes of VHF have been public
knowledge for decades. They were known at the dawn of stealth, in 1983,
when the MIT’s Lincoln Laboratory ordered a 150-foot-wide radar to
emulate Russia’s P-14 Oborona VHF early-warning system. Lockheed
Martin’s Fort Worth division—makers of the F-35—should know about that
radar: they built it.
Making a plane VHF-stealthy starts with removing the target’s tails,
as on the B-2 bombers. But we did not know how to do that on a
supersonic, agile airplane (like the F-35 is supposed to be) when the
JSF specifications were written.
Neither did the technology to add
broadband-active jamming to a stealth aircraft exist in 1995. Not only
did stealth advocates expect jamming to fade away, but there was an
obvious and (at the time) insoluble problem: To use jamming you have to
be certain that the radar has detected you. Otherwise, jamming is going
to reveal your presence and identify you as a stealth aircraft, since
the adversary can see a signal but not a reflection.
We can be sure that on board jamming has not been added to the F-35
since. Had the JSF requirements been tightened by one iota since the
program started, its advocates would be blaming that for the delays and
overruns.
“To
suggest that the F-35 is stealthy is like arguing that the sky is not
blue – literally, because both involve the same phenomenon.”
What
the JSF does have is a jamming function—also known as “electronic
attack,” or EA, in militaryese—in the radar. It also has an expendable
radar decoy—BAE Systems’ ALE-70. Both are last-ditch measures to disrupt
a missile engagement, not to prevent tracking.
JSF’s planners, in the mid-1990s, were close to correct when they
calculated that low-band stealth and limited EA, combined with passive
electronic surveillance for situational awareness, would be adequate at
service entry. But they expected that the F-35 would reach squadrons in
2010, and China’s military modernization was barely imaginable.
The
threats of the late 2010s will be qualitatively different. Old VHF
radars could be dealt with by breaking the kill chain between detection
and tracking: they did not provide good enough cueing to put analog,
mechanically scanned tracking radars on to the target. Active
electronically scanned array (AESA), high-power VHF radars and
decimeter- and centimeter-wave trackers are more tenacious foes.
Last
August, at an air show near Moscow, I talked to designers of a new,
highly mobile counterstealth radar system, now being delivered to the
Russian armed forces. Its centerpiece was a 100-foot-wide all-digital
VHF AESA, but it also incorporated powerful higher-frequency radars that
can track small targets once the VHF radar has detected them. More
recently, however, it has emerged that the U.S. Navy is worried because
new Chinese warships carry the Type 517M VHF search radar, which its
maker says is an AESA.
None of this is to say that stealth is dead, but it is not reasonable
to expect that the cat-and-mouse game of detection and evasion in air
combat has stopped, or that it ever will. EA and stealth still do not
coexist very comfortably on the same platform, but off board EA and
stealth are synergistic: the smaller the target, the less jamming power
is needed to mask it.
But the threat’s demonstrated agility drives
home the lesson that there is no one winning move in the radar game.
Excessive reliance on a single-point design is not a good idea, and
using fictitious secrecy to quash the debate is an even worse one.
This column also appears in the April 28 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology.
Pentagon Not Ready for Cold War 2
There’s an old saying in the military that we’re always training for the last war, so fixated on the lessons of our most recent conflict that we’re blind to the emerging threat.
For years, that last war was the Cold War, and the emerging threat was the insurgents of Iraq and Afghanistan. Slowly, painfully, eventually, the military reoriented itself. The result? After more than two decades of post Cold War re-alignment, the military is less prepared than it has been in generations for a confrontation with Russia.
No
one in Washington is calling for the U.S. to go to war over Crimea and
there are plenty of reasons why, at this point, military intervention
could be a dangerous and foolhardy course. But if circumstances change
and political leaders start looking to the military or the bargaining
power that comes from a credible threat of force, they will find their
options severely limited.
Over the course of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq soldiers and marines have trained for maneuvering and fighting in small units over the landscape of the Middle East. Counter-insurgency (“COIN”) doctrine, which stresses engagement with local civilian populations and tactics for fighting loosely organized forces employing light weapons, has become the military’s new bible. It’s about as far away as you can get from the principles used in the Cold War.
According
to retired General David Deptula, who served as the Air Force’s top
intelligence officer, “we’ve been focused on the far left end of the
spectrum of operations,” by which he means the protracted, low-intensity
conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. But, he says, “if we want to
maintain superpower status we need to be prepared to succeed across the
full range of operations, not just the left end of it.”
Even the few strategists that weren’t pre-occupied by Iraq and Afghanistan were planning for the much-touted Asia pivot, envisioning a future, one they’d argue is still looming, defined by Chinese hegemony. Russia, meanwhile, was considered by many to be an historical relic; still big enough to wield real power but no longer capable of threatening U.S. vital interests and a second or third order afterthought when evaluating threats the military needed to plan for.
“For
years there have been only a handful of people consistently talking
about Russia and China building highly advanced systems for use against
our ‘Cold-War era’ aircraft, missiles and ships,” Deptula says.
He’s talking about himself and some of his closest confidants at the Air Force, who pushed for continued production of high-end weaponry like the F-22 stealth fighter—right when the Iraq insurgency was at its peak. It made Deptula and his gang seem like Mach 2 dinosaurs, pining for a conflict with an imaginary enemy while the real bad guys were blowing up Marines in Fallujah. Understandably, Robert Gates, the Defense Secretary of the time, wanted the military to focus on the wars America was actually fighting at the moment. And so eventually, many of Deptula’s colleagues—including Gen. Michael “Buzz” Moseley, the Air Force’s top officer—were shown the door when they opposed Gates once too often. According to Deptula, “those people were ignored by [former Defense Secretary] Gates, and some were fired because they had the courage to speak truth to power.”
He’s talking about himself and some of his closest confidants at the Air Force, who pushed for continued production of high-end weaponry like the F-22 stealth fighter—right when the Iraq insurgency was at its peak. It made Deptula and his gang seem like Mach 2 dinosaurs, pining for a conflict with an imaginary enemy while the real bad guys were blowing up Marines in Fallujah. Understandably, Robert Gates, the Defense Secretary of the time, wanted the military to focus on the wars America was actually fighting at the moment. And so eventually, many of Deptula’s colleagues—including Gen. Michael “Buzz” Moseley, the Air Force’s top officer—were shown the door when they opposed Gates once too often. According to Deptula, “those people were ignored by [former Defense Secretary] Gates, and some were fired because they had the courage to speak truth to power.”
As the White House and Pentagon planners consider what to do if Russia invades Eastern Ukraine or deploys its forces elsewhere in the region, the limited choices available reveal just how profoundly the military has changed since the Cold War.
For half a century, Cold War military strategy focused on containing Russia and winning in clashes between large conventional forces. On the ground, that strategy called for mass formations organized around tanks and heavy weaponry. In the skies it relied on dominance in Top Gun style style air-to-air fighting prowess, radar evading stealth technology, and powerful bombers that could drop massive munitions to destroy enemy armor and fortified installations.
Since
the end of the Cold War, that strategy has been completely overhauled.
Training and doctrine have focused on small unit tactics while new
weapons and vehicles have been designed with squads in mind rather than
divisions. Super-sophisticated dogfighters, like the $187 million-a-pop
F-22, suddenly seemed too fancy to actually use. Who would fit the bill
if one actually went down? Instead, drones costing less than a tenth the
price littered the skies over Afghanistan and Iraq.
But those drones are useless against any military with a half-decent system for shooting down enemy aircraft. And Russian has one of the best air defenses on the planet. Suddenly, it’s those iconic Predator drones that seem obsolete.
“Hopefully the situation with Russia and Ukraine will be a bucket of cold water on those who believe all we need to be able to do is counter-insurgency operations,” Deptula told The Daily Beast.
And now, there are signs that the U.S. Air Force’s long-held technological advantage may be eroding. The new generation of Russian fighter plane, the T-50, isn’t yet fully operational but it “will be produced much sooner that Gates and his crowd predicted,” Deptula says. He adds that “once the T-50s are produced in sufficient numbers there won’t be anything in the NATO fleet that can deal with them except the F-22s and F-35s.”
David Axe, the long-time military tech writer notes that the T-50, which can fire long-range missiles while flying both high and fast, may be able to “exploit critical vulnerabilities in U.S. and allied forces and level the air power playing field for the first time in a generation.”
An independent Australian think tank, Air Power Australia, drew a more severe conclusion. “If the United States does not fundamentally change its planning for the future of tactical air power, the advantage held for decades will be soon lost and American air power will become an artifact of history.”
While Russian aircraft rely on speed and long flight times, the U.S. fleet is largely built for stealth so it can evade detection and anti-air weapons to engage targets at closer ranges. But the stealth capability, is now being challenged by advances in Russia’s radar detection platforms and anti-aircraft weapons.
“Today,” Deptula said, “the Russians have an extant significant advantage in their surface to air capabilities.” And that with the exception of the U.S.’s small number of highly advanced 5th generation aircraft, “the Russians can conduct area denial of any airspace within range of their defenses if they want to deny access to aircraft.”
Since 2001, the Pentagon has had good reasons for prioritizing spending for troops on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan over speculative needs for future wars, but a consequence has been that we now have what Deptula calls “a geriatric Air Force and Navy fleet.”
No
one, not even Deptula, is suggesting that there’s about to be some
all-out showdown between Moscow’s military and Washington. But it’s not
at all unlikely, given the new and chilly climate, that American forces
and allies could wind up in skirmishes with proxies equipped and trained
by Russia. The U.S. used to be able to count on an overwhelming
technological advantage. Tomorrow, maybe not.
Foreshadows of this are already being cast. Already, Russia is outfitting the Assad regime in Syria while America runs guns to the rebels there. It’s the Russian side that’s winning.
The
change isn’t just about equipment or tactics, though, American forces
trained in counter-insurgency who are stationed in Europe could still be
deployed to hold the line against Russian advances. But there are
drastically fewer forces left in Europe available to be called upon in
such an event.
An analysis of Defense cuts published by the conservative American Enterprise Institute in 2013 reported that “the Army alone has closed 100 installations in Europe since 2003 and plans on returning an additional 47 installations to host nations by 2015.” The same report notes, “the Navy has also been consolidating and decreasing its European bases” and “since 1990, the Air Force has reduced aircraft and forces stationed in Europe by 75 percent.” Addressing the future of America’s military footprint in Europe, the paper concludes that the Pentagon is “planning to continue reducing the US presence in Europe by approximately 15 percent over the coming decade.”
The military can’t be equally prepared for every threat and if its focus has been on counter-insurgency, that’s because those are the wars we’ve been fighting for the past twelve years.
Generations of veterans who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan have been raised and bled on COIN doctrine but, as combat demands, they have also learned how to be agile. Individual leaders on the battlefield are able to adapt quickly; it’s the military bureaucracy that’s like a tank: a slow, immensely powerful machine that’s only capable of plotting one course at a time. Quick turns are not an option.
Without
many viable military options to counter Russian aggression what’s left
for U.S. leaders seeking to punish Russia and assure our NATO allies
that we’ll protect them? Cunning diplomacy, maybe.
Crimea is Russian now; that’s not changing any time soon. Condemning the invasion and the fixed terms of the referendum have no more bearing on the current situation than the reasons Russia gave for annexing Crimea—some of them legitimate—ultimately had to do with the duplicity and force they used to take it.
The
real question, and the subtext in much of the current talk about
Crimea, is whether Russia will stop there or proceed to further
conquests.
Despite it’s show of force in Crimea, Moscow has a lot to lose if the conflict broadens and draws in the U.S. and NATO. Russia has gas to sell to Europe, oligarchs counting on feeling comfortable in their London townhouses, a new middle class looking for normalcy that’s already taken to the streets in protest, and the memory of Chechnya, a brutal war that took thousands of lives, fresh in the national memory.
If
U.S. officials can present a deal that satisfies American aims while
appealing to Russia’s self-interest, they may be able to prevent a
larger conflict. But a new age of competition with Russia? That may be
even harder to head off.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/pentagon-not-ready-cold-war-2-094500985--politics.html
Dear Arevordi,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your time and devotion to this important work very much. However, and this is my opinion, I feel that the way you referred to Hrachya Harutyunyan is very insensitive and unwarranted. What happened was a very tragic occurance. Hrachya did not "murder" 18 people, it was an unfortunate accident-to all parties involved, and himself included. I feel very sad for him, as he was in Russia to earn money to buy a cross stone for his son who had passed, just imagine his dire state, enough to drive any person mad. That's the human element. Let's also not forget that this man is also a hero of the Artsakh liberation movement and as such deserves our respect.
Also, I would like to make a note regarding Zoravar's statement that the Inskander is "expected" to be deployed to Armenia. According to media reports, the Iskander was deployed in Armenian in June of last year (2013):
http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/25005647.html
Thanks,
Artsakh
Western propagandists have been having a wonderful time exploiting this nonsense. So, stop making excuses for him, for this goes way beyond the person per se. This is not about "Hrachya", this is about 'type' he represents. And I know the type in question very well. They are plenty in Russia, plenty in LA, where you live. Their type is the reason why we have a terrible name in Russia. Their type is the reason why Armenia is the way it is today.
DeleteHow would you have reacted if a Iranian caused the death of 18 Armenians due to this reckless behavior and then have the entire Iranian nation defend him and speak shit against Armenians?
The self-engrossed nutjob, Jirayr Seflian, is also a "war hero". Fighting in a war does not give a man free pass to do as he pleases.
Arevordi,
DeleteI am not making "excuses" for Hrachya. I do appologize, but what you wrote about "type" and "reason why we have a terrible name" and "why Armenia is the way it is today" has got nothing to do with the tragic event in question. Your generalization is based on ignorance, hardly mature or befitting a man of your intellectual and analytical abilities.
As one of your reader, I am merely voicing my dissatisfaction with the manner in which you are referring to one of my countrymen-one of YOUR countrymen. He is not a "killer," and what occurred was a tragic event. You're speaking about western propogadists having a wonderful time exploiting this issue, but in essence you're doing the same thing, though for pro-Russian reasons. You're taking a poor, unfortunate man, whose son has died, who was responsible for 18 lives, and calling him a reckless driver and killer in very insensitive manner. He was neither drunk, nor had any intention of taking other peoples' lives.
One thing is certain: whatever occured, I think we can agree that a court of law is the one to determine the circumstances in which it occured and, if warranted, assign the appropriate punishment in an appropriate, civilized and fair manner.
Anyhow, to get back to your question of how I would have reacted if a Iranian caused the death of 18 Armenians, I wonder how Iranians would react if we dressred that Iranian man in women's robes and rushed him to the courtroom.
What Russia did was a political move. Visiting Azerbaijan before visiting Armenia-it's sole ally in the South Caucasus who hosts a Russian base-was a political move.
So what I'm saying is that we're not politicians here. Let's call a spade a spade and be fair with eachother.
Thanks,
Artsakh
Hrachya's plight was made political by disgusting filth in the opposition. My reaction was primarily to the politicization of his situation. With that said, I will repeat that I do not have sympathy for a man that knowingly drives a heavy truck with faulty breaks, speeds on city streets and ends up killing eighteen people. The real tragedy is the 'eighteen' lives he took. I am sick and tired of how our chobans treat motorvehicles. I see too many criminally reckless drivers in Armenia on a regular basis. I know a few families that have lost relatives in car accidents. I have had close calls on Yerevan streets with people who think they own the roads. Too many Armenians are dying on the streets of Armenia. That is the real tragedy. Don't bring his son's death or his participation in the war into this discussion for they have absolutely no bearing on the topic and only serves to sentimentalize the matter. And realize that even if his son was alive, even if he was not a war veteran, he, as a typical Armenian male, would have driven recklessly. I have seen some of our garbage that live in Russia and the US. They are not my compatriots, you can have them. The "women's robe" thing was either a naive screw up by local authorities or a deliberate offense by them done out of rage. If it was done out of rage, I understand. To suggest, however, that it was "political", meaning it came from the top, is hilarious. We are not going to discuss this topic any further.
DeleteArevordi,
DeleteI am in complete agreement with you regarding the driving situation in Armenia, needless to say Yerevan in particular. I also feel your anger regarding that situation. A lot of lives are lost every year due to that situation, a lot of young people who had their whole lives ahead of them. I don't know the statistics, but have heard that more than 100 lives are lost every year due to car accidents in Armenia. I remember Artavast Avakian wrote about that situation in Armenia many years back (by the way, any news about him?) That is one thing that needs to be improved in Armenia, and apperantly they're working on it (with the installation of cameras and such). But in any manner, keep up the good work and keep this blog going!
Thanks,
Artsakh
Sure you have noticed that Western assessements of Russian military capabilities use to disparage them because Russians still "rely on an army of recruits". These is journalistic BS, "hey, we are still the toughest kids on the block". For sure the military think in real terms. They realize what it really means to confront a national army on its own turf. So, clearly they will stay put.
ReplyDeleteRomAn
"Kiev's already under-trained, under-funded, under-equipped and undermanned military units"
ReplyDeletealso underfed soldiers....
US supplies Ukraine military with 330,000 field food rations
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_30/US-supplies-Ukraine-military-with-330-000-field-food-rations-source-6132/
The GMO meals apparently are being sold on the black market
http://time.com/45253/ukraine-corruption-tymoshenko-kiev/
Dear Zoravar, thank you for your awesome report. Please write more stuff on this topic on a regular basis. I am very sure arevordi wont mind.
ReplyDeleteArto1
Thank you comrade Zoravar for this brilliant military style analysis. A very eye-opening read.
ReplyDeleteReally fascinating stuff here:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzbkL4J5nzQ&feature=player_embedded
Enjoyed this commentary. Thank you Arevordi and Zoravar.
ReplyDeleteI would like to add Abkhazia and S. Osetia military bases to the analysis. they got S300s. Basically now 90% of Black sea along with S. Caucasus is a no fly zone. might as well say no sail zone too. Nato has no serious options to achieve any military objectives, it is becoming a fortress. More talks now to re-assure Azeries via Turkey. Azeries feel threatened and they have a reason to be.
I feel puzzled by the new prime ministers appointment. I think we had better options, this is not a good news. more clan politics, it is a step backward.
I hope at least they will appoint Sharmazanov to head the Parliament.
I am very disappointed by "muk's" appointment. We went from having an IMF-trained oligarch.... to having a choban oligarch. This idiot can't even speak properly, and he is going to represent Armenia on the global stage. Typical Armenian politics: One step forward, one step back.
DeleteMr. Putin, please help!
This wasn’t a surprise. Hovik Abrahamyan was longing for this post for quite some time. His son, Argam Abrahamyan, married the daughter of Gagik Tsarukyan. They themselves are supported by rich Russian-Armenians; for example, Samvel Karapetyan is their godfather. A few days ago, Hovik Abrahamyan was in Moscow and met with influential members of the Armenian community and other Russian officials.
DeleteThis is Serzh Sargsyan’s last term, and he is planning to quit politics hereafter. Being pressured by influential groups supporting Abrahamyan, Serzh Sargsyan made the only “logical” choice, and chose to appoint Hovik Abrahamyan as Prime-Minister, not wanting to fall out of grace after his period as President ends and also securing the political career of his daughter’s husband, Mikael Minasyan. They are all connected.
We have problems with budget, the best solution was to appoint someone connected with Russian business and bring more investments from Russia. This muk is nobody, other than khnami of Tsarukyan. this is a very bad decision. i can only imagine who he will appoint as cabinet ministers. I don't get this at all. I am pissed beyond believe.
DeleteAn unarmed pro-Russian crowd disarm a truck of Ukrainian national guardsmen. LOL!
ReplyDeleteI don't think there can be any talk whatsoever of any kind of military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. In the meantime the Donetsk Peoples Republic has announced the formation of an army and are mysteriously getting better arms and equipment every day. From bats and molotov coctails, I am now seeing folks in fatigues and Kalashnikovs.
Since we are on military theme, here is what it takes to destroy a carrier in a group. Russian SUs flew over it on 300m altitude positioned 300km from border in Sea of Japan.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXIfLEcNJ38
LOL! at than ending. An American aircraft carrier battle group is only scary and looks invincible to militarily weak small countries that falls into the American's sphere of strategic interests. Unfortunately, Ukraine falls into the row of one of those unenviable countries who has one WW2 vintage submarine and a handful of "people's corvettes" that the government was begging people to scrap their salaries to support. For this, not only is a single American aircraft carrier group enough -- but even the ironclad Battleship Potempkin will do :).
DeleteEnker Zoravar,
ReplyDeleteOn behalf of all of us, I want to thank you once more for your excellent work. I agree with what Arto wrote. I am already looking forward to your next article.
In the meanwhile, if you have any information on Russian submarine activity in the Black Sea please share it with us. Also, in your opinion, do you think Moscow is preparing the field in eastern Ukraine for an eventual invasion, or do you think they are trying to scare Kiev into adopting a federal system?
Arevordi,
DeleteIF I may answer this question: "Also, in your opinion, do you think Moscow is preparing the field in eastern Ukraine for an eventual invasion, or do you think they are trying to scare Kiev into adopting a federal system?"
The Kremlin is absolutely not preparing the field for a regular armed forces invasion. With the help of a very pro-Russian (Russians and Ukrainians of south-east) to essentially force the junta regime into federalization and Russian as second government language.
Contrary to western hysteria, Russia has not built up some kind of military armada. And the only way Russia goes in militarily if the situation becomes completely intolerable for her.
As it stands, Donetsk and Lugansk basically formed into armies. Overnight they captured the militsia building in the town on Slavyansk in the north part of the Donetsk region. Because this just happened, Avakov tried to send forces to take it back, immediately falling into a shootout. Avakov got nowhere - the barricades in Slavyansk went up anyway.
There is not going to be a Crimean scenario. If the junta regime chooses violence, there is going to be an Artsakh scenario. What do I mean by that? If the junta uses violence, expect the people of Donbass together with their local police and special forces to defeat those junta forces on their territory. They will then open the border to Russia and from Russia will pour in all kinds of weapons, ammunition, fuel, and volunteers. Basically, the junta is kind of damned if they do and damned if the dont.
By the way, I get most of my detailed updates from anna-news. Since they started to cover the Ukraine events, there are a lot of Ukrainian pro-Russians that have integrated themselves into that site to disseminate information. Anna as usual is doing an excellent job in using the weapons of the empire like youtube against them.
Thank you Arevordi and others.
DeleteIn my opinion, Moscow is simultaneously preparing an invasion and at the same time pushing Kiev to adopt a federal system...and everything else in between.
Possible Kremlin objectives that I can think of (from most ambitious to least):
-Marching on Kiev and bringing down the junta
-Annexing the whole East and South
-Annexing only the Donbass and possibly Kharkov and Odessa regions
-Creating a new country (NovoRossiya) in all or parts of the above areas
-Achieving Federalization of Ukraine
Means to achieve any of the above objectives include:
-Full use of military forces
-Limited use of military forces
-Use of local (pro-Russian Ukrainian) forces
-Use of economic leverages (gas etc.)
Good summary of the weekends events:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.vesti.ru/only_video.html?vid=591596
Look at thos guys in fatigues and kalashnikovs. Yeah I think they are ready for any "counter-terrorist" operation.
Berkut joins the people. Look at those granies helping to construct barricades. Look at national guardsmen handing over their weapons. Look at Ukrainian soldiers and the new self-defence army of Donetsk calmly standing next to each other.
Btw, details came about the shooting in Slavyansk. Turns out it was an obvious provocation where unknown assailants opened fire at a Ukrainian military armored personnel carrier. They were trying to launch a similar diversion to provoke the Ukrainian military against the so-called pro-Russian forces in Donetsk. Apparently it didn't work as we can see the soldiers and self-defense forces just calmly standing next to each other.
Zoravar, thank you for your excellent analysis, very informative, I wish you would write more often!
ReplyDeleteCurrent deployment of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea:
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/KzWO4RR.jpg
Note that the aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov" and the Heavy cruiser "Peter the Great" are both there. Of course, there will be no information about submarines lurking around.
Turks, Turkish occupiers in Cyprus, and their Israeli brethren must be shaking in fear and disbelief that, after everything Russia went through since 1988, the mighty Russian bear has come roaring back into the Mediterranean. The Kuznetsov that close to Israeli borders is a most welcome sight. The less mature part of me wishes some "rogue" Russian MiG-29K pilots would make that short flight and blow tel-aviv to bits.
DeleteIt's too bad that the idiotic Ukrainian government sold the uncompleted sister ship of the Admiral Kuznetsov, the Varyag, to the Chinese at rock bottom prices. I wonder what would have happened had Russia had a chance to complete a second Kuznetsov.
Lavrov on Soloviev's sunday evening, interview 3 days ago
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m__8DAjFjAM
Donetsk self-defense forces have captured three Ukrainian trucks loaded with grenades, RPG-7 rounds and disposable RPG-18 rockets:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-c1sUyf1PA
There are also reports that some Ukrainian military units are refusing to carry out orders coming from Kiev.
So, the possibility of a Junta attempt to storm the East is becoming increasingly remote.
And on funny note: http://cs540103.vk.me/c7008/v7008671/c459/3czE776ZxCU.jpg
That picture is absolutely hilarious.
DeleteZoravar & Arevordi, thank you both for the very timely and informative analyses on these very vital developments which directly effect Armenia. It is very reassuring that Russia has come so far in reforming and rebuilding its military after a decade of rot following the collapse of the USSR. The world has been off balance for long enough, the political-zionist west needs a counterweight to keep in in check and in line. Zoravar, feel free to write even more detailed articles, I'm sure many of the readers find the subject matter interesting and would like to benefit from your knowledge.
ReplyDelete***
Now to the newly emerging situation inside Armenia. Even though I don't live there and I am not intimately familiar with Hovik Abrahamyan, I share the concern of T.K., Arevordi and others. I want to try and withhold judgment until we see how he performs. Abrahamyan off the bat does not appear as a "visionary" type of leader, he seems like the kind of insider, business-connected, "regime"-linked candidate that the opposition freaks and the Americans who run the NGOs and psych-ops campaigns will have a field day with. And the fact that all of these "senior" officials are linked to each other through their children being married reminds of feudal tendencies and putting personal considerations ahead of national interests (both the government and the infinitely-worse traitors in the "opposition" are guily of this)... I really hope I am wrong and we are surprised.
This makes me wonder, what were the exact circumstances of Tigran Sargsyan's resignation? Who really pushed for it, and did Moscow green light Abrahamyan's appointment.
A moment of silence is being observed for Donetsk citizen Ruben Avanesyan killed by Ukrainian nationalists when he and other unarmed volunteers were delivering humanitarian goods to Slavyansk. Two more of his colleagues were wounded.
ReplyDeleteRuben's picture is being displayed with the title of Hero of the Donetsk Republic. The speaker is mentioning that the hero is Armenian:
Slava (glory to) Donbass, slava Ruben, Uraaaah, Uraaaah, Uraaah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lyxh0AZBLvg
When did his death occur?
DeleteOn the 13th of April 2014.
DeleteApparently yesterday. There is a bit of an information blackout going on, but all indicators is that there is some serious shit going on in Donbass. The images are surreal, never could think that this could be happening in Ukraine. I know people there.
DeleteToday, there was a tapped phone call apparently between pro-Russian forces coordinating between Slavyansk and Lugansk. A unknown man talked about setting an ambush against "serious people".
I did not know about his death. Very sad but heroic. Notice how our worthless news media and so-called opposition are silent about Ruben's death... In light of the big show they made when the idiot in Maidan was killed (by his own nonetheless) back in December, it is truly sickening.
DeleteI wish more Armenians were involved in this struggle because, like I previously said, geostrategically, this is also our nation's struggle, and a very good way of getting deeply involved with Russian security services.
For several months we saw a number of Armenian flags and activists (next to Azeri and Turkish ones) in Kiev's Maidan attempting to make a statement about a people's wish for self-determination... yet not a single Armenian flag was seen in Crimea in support of the Crimean people's wish for self-determination. Makes no sense. We, as a nation, are going about it the wrong way. It's always one step forward, one or two steps back with us.
We need closer, deeper - more intimate - collaboration with with our partners in Moscow. Our relationship with Russia has to be organic and multi-layered. Although we are not Slavic, we need to make Russians see us as being one of them, at least culturally. At the very least, make them view us as they view Christian Ossetians.
Good job guys!
ReplyDeleteDear zoravar, do you agree with arevordi's characterization of western military as paper tigers in the battle field type of combat. I live in LA area I see sometimes troops from Pasadena area marines core bases. Tell you the truth guys I am also not impressed with the lot of tattoos and fashion conscious troops I see. no real crooked jaw broken nose type blood & guts troops LOL you see in Russia for example. Just wondering what you think. Latest news from russia
http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140414/189218065/Russia-Tests-Fires-Yars-Ballistic-Missile.html
Long time reader
I'll let Zoravar answer, but you might want to check out this entry:
Deletehttp://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/01/sexual-assault-murder-severe-corruption.html
Crazy Russian Army
Deletehttp://www.liveleak.com/view?i=745_1397244583
"Over-fed, over-paid and over-here" was a short description of US soldiers during World War II. It still applies today.
DeleteThe "anti-terror" operation has started http://rt.com/news/kramatorsk-ukraine-attack-army-664/
ReplyDeleteEduard Okopov, Commander of the Eastern Front, one of the leaders of the uprising in Eastern Ukraine, is an ethnic Armenian.
ReplyDeleteSee from 3 minutes onwards;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpdCvuf-ZOk
So now it's Arsen Avakov vs. Eduard Okopov, two Armenians fighting against each other.
Arsen Avakov, just like Levon Ter-Petrossian, Richard Giragosian, Ambassador Djerderian, and Kim Kardashian, is far from being worthy of the title of "Armenian"... Sadly though Armenian history is full of traitors, so I guess he is a good reflection of the degenerate modern Armenian... The Swastika-bearing freaks ought to focus on Avakov as their next target, it would serve that jackass right for getting mixed up in a coup in favor of Armenia's enemies.
DeleteIt's good seeing a man like Eduard Okopov (Hakobyan) getting active in pro-Russian politics. More media attention needs to be focused on these men than the euromaidan armenian loosers.
It is sad about Ruben, particularly when he leaves a widow and two small children behind. This is our nation's fate, to fight and die for foreigners in foreign conflicts. There is a term for it "Eshnahadak".
ReplyDeleteYats the Yid and his entourage of talmudic hebrews, kabalists and snahedrinists are the orchestrators of this rogue jewkranian scarecrow miitia army .Washington jews are going to go for broke here, they have nothing else to loose. The Eastern regions will revert to Russia one way or another. The juden wants to save face, having been checked in Syria and in the Crimea; thwarted in Iran, they are now seeking a reprieve, a small ,short suave victory to embellish their egos. In every sense they have the so called fake nationalists, they are anyhting but nationalists, as cannon fodder. The jew will not be dying, but the jewkrainian pawns will be the ones suffering. Don't discount the Russian strategy. They are keeping quiet and silence; don't be surprised if you wake up one morning and find the Russian army poised before the gates of Kiev. Russian troops can move with lightening speed on a familiar terrain; and the gates of Kiev are just a stone throw away. A repeat of Ossetia-Abkhazia, and the jewkraine will be reduced to its Maidan peryphery before lunchtime.
Don't underestimate the degenerate, multiracial, panmixed american troopers. They may not impress anyone but they do have the sophisticated gear and weaponry to make up for its human quality shortcomings. That is what the Germans surmised in 1943 when the first american malingerers landed in Tunisia. " Just wait for these masticating chewing gum , ice cream sucking,pin up masturbating boys to come up against our elite trained and spirited German troops and they will take to their feet". True, initially they took to their feet, but then superior numbers made up for their human biological shorcomings . Having said that, these americanos tatooed panmixed armada ( Nato stewed) will be confronted ( if it comes to that) by a numerically superior force on the ground; a different scenario to the Tunisian landscape when the Germans were outnumbered 3 to 1. But I don't think the leaders of the americanos hybrid troops are that stupid. They'll have the ukies and the other vassal nations of Europe ( Poles, checks, lithuanians, Estonians, germans) do the dying for them. We must always remember that in geopoliticall terms Europe is still under occupation by the " allied ( minus Russia) + international juden " military forces. Europe lies prostrate, politically they are as tame and lame as a crippled old lion counting his days. We have a lot of traitors on the european union boardrooms. The punk degenerate swede of Carl Bildt, a pro turk , anti armenian swine; doing its lechery once again, as he did in Serbia, and in Kosovo . A jewified zionized crypto juden. Then you have the legion of Fabius, Vals ( jewish wife) Barroso ( a marrano converso) and a cargoe full of racial mongrels entrenched in the precints of Brussels and jumping to the American-Israeli batons. It is an unpleasant scenario, and you will need Promethean forces to counter these demons in human form.
Two things -
DeleteGermans literally ran circles around American and British troops throughout their Africa campaign until Germans ran out of fuel and supplies. In fact, Germans - undermanned, under-armed, underfed and under-supplied - out fought Anglo-Americans until the very last day of the war. With that said, genetically and culturally, the typical American of that time period was not all too different from the typical European male. Today's American male is a very far cry from that generation. The high tech gadgets that the US military is so accustomed to fighting with is in fact their most serious vulnerability.
I think you are misunderstanding what the term "esh-nahatak" means. The term applies to those Armenians who fight and die for foreign interests that are hostile to Armenia. Ruben died supporting a strategic ally. Ruben died fighting the Anglo-American-Zionist world order and their Turkish, Wahhabist and wannabe Nazi thugs. Ruben died fighting our enemies far from our borders. Real men see danger far from their doorstep and they go there to fight, while the sheeple wait for the enemy to show up knocking at their doors before they wake up. Ruben died a hero.
http://asbarez.com/121889/erdogan-waves-finger-at-obama-during-heated-white-house-talk/comment-page-1/#comment-7216381
ReplyDelete“but Turkey is a special case. They are a NATO ally. The Turks don’t trust the West. They can’t live with us if we take any active role against Turkish interests.”
Yet in about a weeks time, clueless Armenian-Americans will be in a frenzy as they ask the US government to “recognize” the Armenian Genocide, and then will be disappointed when the US sides with the Turks again. This is all further proof that the world is divided into two camps with solid, impermeable borders: the US, the EU, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Israel, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and their puppets on one side; and on the other side Russia, Armenia, Iran, Belarus and their allies.
If Russia gets too powerful, you can expect Iran's relations with the West will improve. There are already signs of that taking place. With the lifting of sanctions already in effect, the setting of improved relations between Iran and the West is in the works.
DeleteRussia, Turkey and Iran are all regional powers with their sights set at the Caucasus. Each has as their ultimate goal to advance its influence in the region, with the ultimate goal of ownership of the region. This has always been the case.
If Russia gets too powerful, you can bet Iran will begin to view it differently, as a threat. There can never be any lasting, true alliance between the two, as their long term interests do not, and cannot, coincide; this is only temporary collaboration.
With improved Iran-West relations, Armenia will gain a more stable neighbor, and it's economic betterment will impact Armenia as well.
Iran has explicitly hinted that it is ready to sell gas at cheaper price than Russia; the Iran-Armenia railway is another important development that will pick up and benefit Armenia with the lifting of sanctions against Iran.
With improved relations with Iran, the significance of Turkey for the west and US in particular will diminish.
I hope to see the emergence of a Kurdish state from modern Turkish territories in the not too distant future, with a fractured Turkey the threat from that country to Armenia also diminishes. Don't forget, it was the US state department that drew up the "wilsonian boundries" of Armenia at the US presidents request. I don't believe that the US considers Armenia "in the way." A powerful Turkey stretching from Istanbul to the Caspian sea is neither in the West's nor Russia's interests. Our policy makers in Yerevan need to pursue a more national agenda for Armenia's interests.
The fact of the matter is that when you look through the pages of Armenia's history, you see that Armenia has always managed, for better or worse, when it has balanced its relations between competing blocs. When it laid its eggs in one basket or tilted more toward one or the other side, loss of statehood resulted. Today's Russia and the West is no different from Roman and Persian empires of the past.
Armenia CANNOT put it's hopes on anyone else. I am amazed you folks have not learned this from Armenia's history. Armenia put its hopes on Europe, and got slaughtered by turks in return. Armenia put its hopes on Russia, and they left as at the mercy of turks.
Armenia needs to increase Armenia's population. There is no Armenia without Armenians. Even a 6-million strong Armenia today would be a force to be rekoned with. If Artsakh were 750,000 today (at least), who can tell us that land is theirs? Today's Artsakh with 150k population is nothing, the size of a city.
Fundamentally, I agree with you regarding Iran-Russia. However, it does not have to be that way. Moscow needs to make a serious effort to embrace Iran, although I know Russians are weary of Iranian intentions/influence in Central Asia and in the Caspian Sea region. Thus far, I see Moscow keeping Iran close but at an arms length. I wish Moscow and Tehran were making serious attempts to set their political and economic boundaries in the region by partitioning areas of influence and setting the stage for strategic collaboration. This may happen, depending on how the West approaches Iran, depending on the evolution of the crisis in the Middle East. Moreover, with the Jewish/Israeli factor in the Western world, the future of Iranian Western relations looks very unpredictable.
DeleteRegardless of what happens between Iran and the West, the importance of Turkey will not significantly diminish for Western powers. Even if Iran has better relations with the West, the West will continue needing Turkey as a balance against Iran. The West still needs Turkey against pan-Arab nationalism. The West still needs Turkey against Russia. A divorce between Ankara and the West is a perennial Armenian fantasy. You may be projecting your personal wishes into regional geopolitics.
If (and that is a big if) the West/Israel and Iran solve their many problems and Iran somehow enters a Western sphere, it will be a serious threat to Armenia geostrategically. You are seeing things too black and white.
If we do get a Kurdish state in the region, it will be one run by the CIA and Mossad. Northern Iraq - Kurdistan - exists as a result of Western and Israeli support. So, beware of what you wish for.
DeleteI partially agree with your comment about a balanced relationship - dependent on what you are specifically talking about. A balanced relationship with the West is fine as long as you protect yourself from Western agencies, agents and propaganda. Western financial institutions like the IMF, Western pseudo-aid agencies like USAID, Western GMOs, Western NGOs, Western homosexuality promotion, etc, is a serious threat to Armenia. Wake up, this is not your grandfather's West, the West today is a toxic entity that needs to be avoided, beyond normal cordial relations.
It's amazing that in this day on age we still have blind sheep like you.
As in the ancient world, Armenia's only hope for survival is with Russia (the modern world's Persian Empire). In fact, Armenia is more dependent on Russia for survival today than Armenia was dependent on ancient Persia. As during ancient times, our people are making a big mistake by playing both sides. Because of Armenian political stupidity, Armenia had become a battlefield for Persia and Rome. Because of Armenian political stupidity and indecision and unity Armenia has historically been a mediocre nation-state constantly trying to survive. Because of the stupidity called "complimentary politics" today, Armenia is vulnerable to Western machinations and going no where.
The difference between us folks and you is that We HAVE learned from our history, where as you are still fantasizing and playing make belief.
Because of the low caliber of the modern Armenian today and because of the circumstances of the south Caucasus, Armenia has no choice but to place its hope with Russia. I suggest you wake up from your nationalistic fantasies and see the reality you live in and try to work on deriving benefits from it. In other words, Russia is an opportunity.
For Armenia to increase it population, the south Caucasus has to effectively free itself from the political "balance" you speak of. For Armenia to develop as a nation-state once again, the south Caucasus needs Pax-Russicana.
Finally, you must be a teenager if you think "Wilsonian Armenia" has any baring whatsoever on the modern world. And you must be an absolute idiot if you think "Wilsonian Armenia " reveals Washington's good intention towards Armenia. The imperial document in question (which envisioned the US administering Western Armenian colony in the aftermath of the First World War) isn't even worth the paper is is written on
Please identify yourself when you post comments here in the future. But, before you do so, I suggest you stop listening to fat farts like Ara Papyan and fake fucks like Richard Hovanissian and spend a few more years studying Armenians, geopolitics, history and international relations...
Iran and Russia are bound to be allies for the foreseeable future.
DeleteIf Iran flips West, Russia can at any instance reduce military aid to Syria, this means Iran would loose power over Syria and Lebanon i.e. no more outlet to Mediterranean. That means Qatari gas could flow through Syria to Turkey untinterrupted. And that means Iran will no longer have significant economic leverage due to this alternative route.
Add on top Iran has over 2000 Kilometer border with Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, all three of them being apocalyptic hotspots that may possibly serve as launching pad for covert operations against Iran.
Iran has at least a decade ahead to deal with the inflamed situation in Syria and neighbouring countries, this will drain lots of energy and resources, so I do not see it encroaching or aspiring for any role in Central Asia or Caucasus. Turkey has its own load of internal shit and is fully dependent on Russia for its energy demands.
It's time to put all our eggs in a single basket, that basket is Russia. And the best thing that could happen is a new Iron Curtain to repel the West, cause as Arevordi said " the West today is a toxic entity that needs to be avoided, beyond normal cordial relations". meditate on that
AJ
Anonymous, go back to studying your history lessons. Armenia was for hundreds of years very close to persia but when armenia started getting close to rome we began to suffering hundreds of years of wars in the hands of east and west all because our kings couldent make up their minds about rome or persia. Armenia adopted christianity because of roman influence and made enemies with a friendly persia and ever since then we have been a defeated nation always turning the other cheek. As arevordi keeps saying today democracy and westernization is playing the role of christianity in the old world and making idiot armenians turn their backs on a historic friend like russia. There are things I dont completely agree with arevordi but when he say the road to western armenia goes through moscow I fully agree.
DeleteArto1
The last paragraph here:
ReplyDeletehttp://vesti.ua/donbass/47751-veteran-alfy-v-donbasse-po-uchebniku-dejstvovat-ne-poluchitsja
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Между тем Донецкая народная республика официально подтвердила гибель первого своего ополченца. Им оказался 29-летний Рубен Аванесян — парень из известной в регионе семьи (его брат — дизайнер одежды). У него остались жена и двое маленьких детей. По словам активистов, он вез груз медикаментов в Славянск и его машину расстреляли неизвестные. В ДНР уверены, что это «Правый сектор» (сам ПС не подтверждал присутствие своих бойцов в регионе). Отметим, что первый убитый со стороны пророссийских активистов Донбасса, также как и первый убитый со стороны Майдана (Сергей Нигоян), — этнический армянин. И оба — граждане Украины.
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Donetsk Peoples Republic confirmed the death of their first militiaman. He is 29 year old Ruben Avanesyan - the young man is from a well known family in the region (his brother is a clothes designer). He is survived by his wife and two small children. According to activists, he was driving medical supplies to Slyavyansk and his cart was shot at by unknowns. Activists are convinced the shooters were "Right Sector". We'll note that the first to die from pro-Russian activists from Donbass, just like the first to die for Maidan is an ethnic Armenian. And both were citizens of Ukraine.
If the USA run kabbala want a war, they will have that war. Financially it might make sense for the Zionist-amerricans to ignite a conflict from which its embers might burn to conduce to a larger conflict and ultimately war. Western Europe is harnessed and fastened to the American-zionist chariot. If the situation in Ukraine develops into a civil strife, the time and geographical factor would seemingly be on the Easterners side. There will be armies of volunteers streaming into the East from Russia, Serbia and other places. Like wise there will be volunteers streaming into the ranks of the illegaly formed ukranian regime. The balance will become heavily tilted on the Russian side. As for the foreign relations and politics of Poland, they are committing the same folly and misguided policies they pursued against Nationalist Germany in the 30's. The Poles swallowed hook line and sinker the deception of the Franco-English guarantees for the integrity of Polish frontiers. Danzig was not a polish city. Now the Poles are relying on Nato, and they are shortsighted enough to facilitate Polish territory for the installation of a network of ballistic, intercontinental missile system. Little do they know that by doing that they are becoming natural targets of the opposing side array of offensive missile systems. At the moment we have a war of words, posturing and feint movements. It is reported the american have infiltrated the black sea with war ships. Maybe these ships are on an exercise mission in the black sea. Not an ideal situation to start exercises in a Russian lake. The turks can be a factor here. The turkish/Nato navy and forces can easily be sacrificed to test the mettle of the Russian navy and also their intent on how they would consider defending themselves in their own lake. Russian strategy according to MNGF, is insinuated in allowing the Ukranian Zionists ( not nationalists; we must not confuse healthy nationalists with zionized gangsters shock troops posing as nationalists, nazis,/fascists; these type of propaganda suits both sides) to move into he East and build up critical mass surrounding the citiies and towns ; in the meanwhile the referendum activists will keep beefing up their forces for an appropriate counterattack. The swcherkpunts have been clearly identified. Events will run their course and the always unpredicatibility chance of politics and war will have its final say. Economically the zionist cashs registers have started ringing their tills lustily.
ReplyDeleteHi Arevordi & everyone else too :)
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on this?
It's from an EU think tank type place. I included some additional information
But these people seem to think the US is looking to annex the EU- subjugate it completely, financially etc
And at the same time there was debate in the US about the US annexing Canada
Mentioning of the TTP which no one wants, but, the US is determined to shove down everyone's throat
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2014/04/trigger-cold-war-to-make-it-easier-for.html
Any thoughts on this aspect? Anyone at all?
Greetings Penny,
DeleteIt is no secret that the EU has always been viewed by the Anglo-American-Jewish world order as their playground. So, it's natural that they have been promoting their currency, their economic system, their military, their politics, their pop culture, etc, in the EU. The subjugation of the EU was always there, but it was subtle, unofficial and indirect. Now, however, expect to see more direct involvement in EU affairs as a result of the West's brand new bogeyman in the east. But there will not be an official annexation. If that is what they are suggesting, it's silly. I think it may be an attempt at fearmongering by anti-American interests in Europe.
PS: North American Union makes sense politically, culturally, financially and economically. Therefore, it is a theoretical possibility. In my opinion, the US, Canada and Mexico are in fact heading in that direction...
Hi Arevordi
DeleteI don't interpret the article as the think tank is actually suggesting an official annexation.
Just a sort of subjugation/ cutting EU off from their natural neighbourhood
Which is trade with Russia
The TPP can push them into taking fracking resources- and a bunch of other things that Europeans likely don't want
Being here in Canada, I cannot stress enough the absolute dread of an NAU
MY home country will be even more subservient to the US and it's bad enough already- my country, as I type, is being flooded with foreign workers while Canadians go without jobs-
The NAU will be the end of the life/life style we have had in Canada
We will get ever closer to third world status- and it's heading that way now
crumbling infrastructure, everything privatized
And yes we are heading in that direction,but, most Canadians haven't a clue.
I don't think it is a good idea for us
Honestly, there are people in Canada who see Russia as our more natural ally
Oops TTP = TPP
DeleteTrans Pacific Partnership
canadians are being hoodwinked into that one
I know what you mean, Penny. I live in an area of Canada where the TPP would have a big effect on us.
DeleteIn a most realistic scenario, I'd probably go back to my homeland but that is easier said than done.
LOL like who didnt see this coming http://rt.com/news/ukrainian-tanks-kramatorsk-civilians-840/
ReplyDeletePenny, I was in Canada in February. Turned on the tube in the evening at my hotel. Canadian media is even worse than American if that is possible in terms of coverage of the Ukraine events. A UN security council session was going on, and they kept playing Samantha Powers talking while having Vitaly Churkin muted and not even summarizing what he said. I listened to Churkin's speech on RT later -- he was of course pretty stellar.
ReplyDeleteThe Canadian commentator then started to beat the war drums, comparing Russian to Ukrainian military strength, inviting Ukraine's ambassador to the UN to have him declare how Ukraine wants to go to NATO and how Ukrainians are going to fight till the last drop of blood.
Then he asked a poll question to viewers if they think that Canada should help Ukrainian. He didn't like the answer of the majority of responders who said "NO" and started trying to manipulate that maybe his audience didn't understand the question properly.
All in all, it was a pretty pathetic display of "democratic media".
Hi Jerry and Skhara
Deleteapologies for not getting back to you both sooner
Sadly, Canada is becoming extremely war mongering yes the media is pathetic
I don't know if it is worse then American media, I find it pretty much on par or in sync with American media.
But democratic media it is not
As Jerry mentioned the TPP, is not going to do us any favour ,as it won't do the EU any either- It will however enrich the multinationals (most American) and destroy all sovereignty.
http://asbarez.com/121908/aliyev-blasts-west-over-karabakh/
ReplyDeleteListen to this bitch whine.
LG
Putin's annual Q&A 4 hour long, just started watching, must be interesting.
ReplyDeleteRussian version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz1B8o9p0Ts
English version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PyEspLz8UQ
Enjoy
I have watched the russian version here is a timeline for important questions
Delete49:00- Karen SHakhnazarov's question
1:06- Novorussia
1:16 to 1:45 - all important questions
1:51- about sanctions, oil exports
1:56 - alaska, LOL
1:58- mentioned armenians also suffered from stalin purges not only tatars
2:27- PACE, hysteria
2:36- Ukraine, made fun of Prodenko's name, LOL
2:46- snooping, can't talk to EU leaders on the phone
2:48- Valdai panel questions, all were good
2:58- Rasmussen is gyot, taped his conversation
3:00- Snowden's question
3:28- Revolutions, mass media
the ending was good too, he answered his chosen questions and made a final statement.
Thank you, this is very helpful for those of us who don't have the time to sit through the entire interview.
DeleteArevordi
DeleteYou will be interested to see the ending, from 3:51, where he talked about the Russian, what it means. Off course the english translation is not good enough.
Yarosh thanks Azerbaijan for its support and declares that "Ukraine will remember Armenia" - for Armenia's position at the UN vote.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1792052.html
The article goes into plenty of detail of the stuff that Ukraine has done to hurt Armenia's interest. Among the details are the large amounts of Soviet military hardware including MI-24 helicopters and 100 tanks that were sent to Azerbaijan during the war.
I really wish Russian news media would direct more information at the Armenian public like this in the information war. I see lately that they are obviously taling about this, but it is reactionary in the Russian media. It would be nice to see the Russian power structures and media direct more propaganda at the dimwitted Armenians and inform them of such facts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-17/ukraine-clash-kills-three-as-powers-meet-for-crisis-talks.html
ReplyDeleteAccording to Obama NATO will stand by its member countries and that Putin knows that U.S. and allied forces are “significantly superior” to Russia’s.
LG
Fighting abilities and feerless courage of typical russians I agree about, but all this talk about missiles and rockets we are told are world class weapons have not been ever tried in war times. How can we be sure of how good they are? Techonology can be defeated by technology just like when iranians hijacked the most high tech american spry plane in the world. I think countries cant lose site and invest in real meat and potatos type weapons like tanks, sniper guns, anti tank rockets and very tough fighters.
ReplyDeleteArto1
Yaroslavl and his thugs will get their just desserts. The Jews will see to that. The guy and his warped fake nationalists are simply tools of the Jews in their conflict with Russia. Those madmen claim to be orthodox and yet support Muslim factions like Azerbaijan and the chechens.
ReplyDeleteRussian general talking about the west, that masks are off and we see the true intentions which is to restrain Russia.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgVYPBZ70r0
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/53738/armenia_russia_ambassador_statement_interference
ReplyDeleteMore fear mongering.
LG
-"Russia will prevent any aggressive intervention in the internal affairs of friendly countries made “under the pretext of planting ideas alien to our minds and hearts”"
DeleteVery good news! The gloves are off and I want to see more and more explicit statements from Russia that any power on Earth, from Ankara to Washington, which even thinks about meddling in internal Armenian affairs and working towards towards regime change will be crushed mercilessly by the combined might of Russian and Armenian security services. Time to put an end to the NGOs, the controlled media, and the sell-out politicians.
-"Armenia has still not officially protested against this statement by the Russian diplomat."
Hate to break it to the assholes of "Armenianow", but Armenia's government is not a western lapdog to "protest" such statements.
-"But in the media there have been some articles describing it as “diplomatic nonsense” and a bid for total control of “hearts and minds” in Armenia."
Quoting the same five sell-outs masquarading as so-called "experts" and "journalists" doesn't qualify as "the media here".
-"The relations between Armenia and Russia increasingly appear to be contradictory"
Bullshit, the are as harmonized and overlapping as the interests of two states can be. The Armenia/Russia bloc is, however, increasingly contradicting the war against humanity being waged by the anglo-american-jewish-turkish bloc.
-"Yerevan openly states that the proposed terms of entry into the Russian-led Customs Union are not profitable to Armenia and it is negotiating with Moscow on privileges."
Again, bullshit. Only CIA-controlled "Azatutyun" and "Armenianow" are grasping at straws and presenting some potential negatives for a tiny handful of Armenian industries (ie fisheries) when Armenia enters the Customs Union. The truth is that a vast majority of Armenian industries will benefit greatly from Customs Union membership... Of course if anyone wants to imagine nightmare economic scenarios for Armenia, imagine Armenia joining the EU and becoming the next Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, Spain...
-"Add to this the imperial rhetoric of Russia politicians, diplomats, pro-Kremlin journalists"
Right, all those Russians talking about manifest destiny and being the world's policeman. And the CSTO war crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria... Somebody needs to start drug testing at Armenianow so that whores like Naira Hayrumyan can't present their hallucinations as fact.
-"The Russian leadership does not hide any longer its intentions to completely absorb Armenia"
DeleteThe whole "Armenia without Armenians" lie again?
I want to destroy this dangerous myth forever before the west and the west's NATO allies the turks, the azeris and the georgians can further exploit it as a psychological weapon to further harm Armenia. Let's be rational and clear, there are absolutely no logical grounds to base the false claim that "Russia wants Armenia without Armenians". Firstly, the Russian Federation is the largest country in the world in terms of land mass. The total area of the Russian Federation is about 6,592,800 square miles, while the total area for the Republic of Armenia is about 11,484 square miles; meaning Russia in total is more than 573 times larger than Armenia, and Russia actually has bodies of water larger than Armenia. Russia's land area is huge, Russia is rich in all types of natural resources, and Russia's population density is very low which means Russia is not suffering from "overpopulation" or overly crowded cities that Russians would need more living space. In fact Russians in relatively recent history sold off Alaska because they simply could not handle additional territory. Therefore, it is silly to think that the Russians have a deep down desire to somehow depopulate and colonize a small, landlocked and generally inhospitable region like Armenia.
Furthermore, despite what the fear-mongers and western propaganda "artists" keep repeating to us gullible Armenians, Russia and the Islamic-Turkic people are natural enemies, they have been throughout history and will remain so for centuries to come. Russia has valiantly fought and defeated Turkey in about fourteen major wars since the initial rise of Russia in the 1600s. This fact is the main reason why independent Armenia exists today after suffering 800 years of Turkish and Persian occupation since the collapse of the last Armenian Kingdom within historic Armenia in 1064; in fact the main reason Armenians were able to defeat the Turkish Army in 1918 at Sartarapat, Vanadzor (Karakilise) and Abaran (Bash-Abaran) was because four years earlier the Russians and Armenians absolutely slaughtered the Turkish Third Army (ie Turkey's Eastern Army based in Western Armenia) during the glorious battle of Sarikamish (more than 90,000 Turkish soldiers killed out of 120,000), otherwise the Turks would have succeeded in destroying Armenia. So how can any Armenian with even one iota of logic claim that the Russians want "Armenia without Armenians" when the Russians know that if Armenians are ever removed, Turks would move right into Armenian territory and create a solid Turkic/Islamic front stretching from Istanbul through the Black Sea to the Caucasus to the Caspian Sea to Central Asia and into China. That would be a nightmare for Russia, only the US-EU-NATO-Georgia axis of evil and hatred have dreams of creating such a pawn to use against Russia. Historically a western desire for a strong Turkey to use against Russia is why "Christian", "democratic" countries like Britain, France, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy and others supported the Turks at the expense of the Armenians all in an immoral attempt at harming Russia (see 1853-1856 Crimean War, 1878 Treaty of Berlin, 1914-1918 World War One and the Armenian Genocide and Turkish invasion of Eastern Armenia, 1920 Turkish "War of Independence", 1952-today NATO). By contrast, Russia saved the Armenians from a Turkish invasion and total extermination on several occasions, most notably in 1920 and again recently in 1993 up to present day.
Keeping all the history of western treachery and turkophillia in mind, next time you hear somebody claim that "Russia wants Armenia without Armenians", ask yourselves "what agenda is this person/entity working for and why are they pushing an illogical, anti-Russian, anti-Armenian, pro-NATO, pro-Turkish and pro-Azeri lie onto the Armenian community.
Sarkis jan, periodically send an email to the staff of ArmenaiNow. Nothing academic, just tell them what you think of them...
DeleteGood call Arevordi jan, I haven't paid "Armenianow" attention lately. I'd hate to think we forgot about them.
DeleteAs far back as 2008 I used to email azatutyun complaining that they used qualifiers when describing the Armenian Genocide in their English language reports. Never got a single reply from those jackasses.
Hey guys, did anyone follow what happened at the "four-way" talks in Geneva? The Ukrainian so-called "foreign minister" was often left in the room by himself while the other 3 would go into sidebars in a near-by room. First Lavrov and Kerry would go have a private chat, then Ashton would join them while the Ukrainian idiot was sitting at the main table waiting for the other 3 enjoying his sovereignty :):)
ReplyDeleteBy the way, Yarosh, as it turns out is an ethnic Jew. And now I found interesting and curious why all these neo-nazi movements in Slavic countries are led by full jews and half-jews pretending to Russian or Ukrainian nationalists.
Also have you guys seen these "right sector" people? They are literally a waste of human space. They go around Yelling: "Glory to Ukraine! Glory to Heroes", but none of those dumbshits realize that a nations glory is not gotten by yelling that -- but rather in the fields and in the factories, and it is the people they hate who truly earn that glory.
Because Russia is a multiethnic society, Western interests (often times through Jews) have been promoting racism and neo-nazism inside Russia to destabilize it. If you recall, they had succeeded somewhat. I had even written a commentary explaining racism in Russia -
DeleteRacism in Russia (2008): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2009/03/racism-in-russia-racists-exist-in-many.html
Western support for racists in Russia is a sociopolitical calculus that is related to Western efforts in the 1920s and the 1930s to help Hitler come to power inside Germany - because they saw a powerful/nationalistic Germany as a hedge against expanding Bolsheviks. Needless to say, that particular experiment blew in their faces when Hitler turned on them...
One of the members of the 25th airborn brigade out Dnepropetrovsk who defected to the people. You can see his St. George ribbon a symbol of the resistance to the junta. Incidentally, this unit has been disbanded by Kiev and they are starting prosecution against its members for "cowardice" against those guys who returned to their base.
ReplyDeleteThe girl asked him if he is afraid of prosecution, he said there is probably already some sort of proceeding being filed against him and he stepped back holding his weapon tight and daring the junta to come arrest him.
http://lifenews.ru/news/131544
Ignore the usual fear-mongering from Asbarez and IWPR and look at this proposed law. Hopefully Armenia is getting serious about cracking down on poisonous hate-sites like lragir, hetq, aravot and others. I left the comment below.
ReplyDeletehttp://asbarez.com/122084/armenian-parliament-introduces-bill-threatening-online-anonymity/comment-page-1/#comment-7239304
Sarkis says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
April 18, 2014 at 6:46 pm
Before everyone goes hysterical, take a look at the source of this report: the so-called “Institute for War & Peace Reporting”. A BRITAIN-BASED organization with close links to British and Azeri energy interests, as well as Turkey and NATO interests. Anyone interested to see just how biased and how anti-Armenian and anti-Russian, as well as pro-Turkish/pro-Azeri and pro-Georgian this foreign organization is can visit their homepage and check out their “Caucasus” section.
As for Internet security, I suggest they worry about the US Government and the NSA’s total surveillance programs. The Armenian law would merely “penalize media outlets that publish defamatory material from anonymous or fake sources”. Defamation is already illegal in every country in the world, including the US and Armenia. I wholeheartedly support such a bill, next time anyone tries to publish obvious lies, such as President Sargsyan allegedly gambling and losing an unbelievable 70 million Euros (about a $100,000,000.00), in a transparent attempt at inciting riots in Armenia based on those lies, justice will be served. This law can only improve the professionalism on the Armenian political scene.
Let’s not forget that in 2008, even before the Election bodies in Armenia had announced the results of the Presidential elections, foreign-funded media such as lragir and aravot were falsely reporting that the traitor LTP had supposedly won the election. They played a very important role in the bloody riots that took place after, and are themselves guilty for the ten deaths that occured in March 2008. This bill looks to punish and deter such fraudulent provocations in from being repeated in the future.
The conclave betwen the powers to resolve the ukr. crisis diplmatically is a non starter. It has failed without a begining. According to the agreement all illegal groups must disarm and disband. The first and froemost illegal group are the members of the jewish putsch that has taken over the ukr. reins of government. Who do they represent ? A putchs orchestrated by the jew international to capture the ukraine will have the putchists responding to the jewish power base represented by the EU-USA. Will the federalists or activists for autonomy, russian orientation, in the East disband and disarm ? Why should they ? The first group to pack their sleazy bags and seek passage to Israel are the rogue thugs which brainchilded the putsch. Is Russia negotiating with the putschtists ; which are the proxies for USA-EU-Nato. Russia's and Ukraines enemies are not the nationalists,but the international zionist jewish power base who is hell bent in capturing the ukr. and thus get closer and closer to Russia's borders. Russia must call Nato's bluff, that shoe shiner Nato secretary Fog Fogh Rasmussen, a lapdog of the Americans can bellow stentorially that more ships, more sorties, more armies are getting readied. Ready for what ? No one has asked this lapdog why is he building up Nato's military muscle on Russia's border. If these war dogs are looking for an ignition or a conflagration in the area, they will provoke it.
ReplyDeleteUS Government Promoting Islam in Czech Republic
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4262/islam-czech-republic
One of the many tangible "benefits" Armenia will be deprived of because it refused to sign an association agreement with the EU. The Czechs had it better as a Warsaw Pact nation than as a multicultural toilet under the EU yoke.
There seriously needs to be an Armenian and Russian language website, based in Armenia, which highlights the dark side of the EU for the average Armenian. Eastern Europe during the Soviet Era, for all the lack of personal freedoms, was a well-educated area with safe cities, demographic stability, and almost no Muslim and Third-World immigrant settlers. Now Prague is on the path to becoming Praguistan in a few short decades.
Քրիստոս հարյավ ի մեռելոց:
ReplyDeleteՇնորհավոր Զատիկ:
Happy Easter everyone.
ReplyDeleteArevordi
We often talked about Christianity, Judaism, I have very little knowledge about muslim religion. How it evolved, what were the circumstances that led people to choose a new god and religion. and why was it opposed to other religions, or maybe not? in the beginning. I know it became popular and widespread in a short time.
Have you had any blog commentary about this subject?
There are a lot of websites about Islam. If you have a specific question, perhaps I can answer it. But I'll leave you with two points to ponder:
Delete1) All three regional religions (Christianity, Islam and Judaism) have their origins in historic Armenia. The Garden of Eden was in historic Armenia. Noah was a Sumerian who ended up in the kingdom of Ararart (Urartu) after the great flood. Patriarch Abraham, the father of the three faiths, was a native of the south-western Armenian town of Urfa (Edessa). Hittite, Hurrian, Mitanni and the Hyksos peoples of the Armenian Highlands ruled the "Holy Land" for hundreds of years prior to the emergence of the three faiths.
2) Theosophically and ritualistically, all three faiths in question have their roots in ancient Zoroastrianism, a powerfully influential monotheistic religion at the time who's center was in Persia and Armenia.
There are a lot of websites about Islam. If you have a specific question, perhaps I can answer it. But I'll leave you with two points to ponder:
Delete1) All three regional religions (Christianity, Islam and Judaism) have their origins in historic Armenia. The Garden of Eden was in historic Armenia. Noah was a Sumerian who ended up in the kingdom of Ararat (Urartu) after the great flood. Patriarch Abraham, the forefather of the three faiths, was a native of the south-western Armenian town of Urfa (Edessa). Hittite, Hurrian, Mitanni and the Hyksos peoples of the Armenian Highlands ruled the "Holy Land" for hundreds of years prior to the emergence of the three faiths. A significant portion of the population in Palestine and the Levant exhibit "Armenoid" features.
2) Theosophically and ritualistically, all three faiths in question have their roots in ancient Zoroastrianism. An Aryan faith born in Persia, Zoroastrianism was a powerfully influential monotheistic religion in the ancient world for over one thousand years. Armenia was one of the centers of Zoroastrianism before Christianity arrived. Christ may have been a member of the Essene sect in Palestine. Some scholars claim that Essenes were heavily influenced by Zoroastrianism. This explains why Christ' was persecuted by the Jews. The Essenes lived in caves. They disavowed material belongings. They did not marry. They did not offer sacrifice. They did not eat meat. They were keepers of mysteries. They abstained from sex. And if I remember correctly, they prayed in the direction of the sun...
Thank you Arevordi
DeleteI am trying to find out why did muslim religion become anti-christian? Was it just used by leaders for their end or is there theological differences that make those religions antagonistic.
Նախագահ Սերժ Սարգսյանը՝ ՊՆ-ում. «Առաջընթացը մեր Զինված ուժերում տեսանելի է»
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_0QAv6Bk9k
President Sargsyan explains, in words simple enough so that even a child could understand, the key victories that tiny, newly independent, diplomatically inexperienced Armenia scored in the Protocols games with turkey. It would have been nice to hear at least one rational voice in the Diaspora, instead of reacting hysterically like the Diaspora did and letting the regime change handlers shepard them into anti-Armenia protests.
Of course we are days away from our annual April 24 events where America's Armenians will make noise for Genocide "recognition" from the world's worst war criminals. Then everyone will go home, US support for Turkey, Azerbaijan and terrorists in Syria and the North Caucasus will continue to expand, and the controlled English-language Armenian press will continue to pump out doom-and-gloom, anti-Armenia and anti-Russia poison day after day.
Opinions? Karine Minasian said earlier Armenia may join the Eurasian Union without getting to be a member of the Customs Union. This article came up today and the underlying view that Armenia won't end up joining the Moscow-led union (either the customs or the Eurasian) is upheld. I personally feel that Armenia is better off without it. Russian-Armenian relations are so institutionalized that I feel there is no reason for Moscow to push for it. Armenia's tariff rates are liberal, and I don't want to see any degree of Armenia's sovereignty delegated to supra-national unions. True, Armenia's main disadvantage is geographic and geopolitical. However, corruption does a lot of damage. Armenia needs to work on corruption. Armenia's recent liberalization of the domestic civil aviation sector seems to have increased traffic. Similar works, projects such as the Iran-Armenia railway, and increased economic cooperation with Iran and Georgia is what Armenia needs. Anyways...read on
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/04/22/customes/
Armenia has no prospects of joining the Customs Union. And it is really good because it involves Nagorno-Karabakh, which is of paramount importance for Armenia, political scientist Andrias Ghukasyan told Tert.am.
“Armenia cannot join the Customs Union without Azerbaijan’s consent, and Azerbaijan does not appear to be giving its consent. The Customs Union member-states – Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – have various economic, political and military ties with Azerbaijan. And Azerbaijan’s stance on the matter is of essential importance for them. With Azerbaijan not giving its consent, Armenia’s authorities have an alternative, namely, setting up a checkpoint on the border with Nagorno-Karabakh, which is not a feasible program,” he added.
Armenia’s attempt to join the Customs Union is a serious challenge to its relations with Nagorno-Karabakh.
“We see Azerbaijan objects to Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union, and we see [Armenian President] Serzh Sargsyan is unable to set up a checkpoint on the border with Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, I think all the talks about the Customs Union and membership in the Eurasian Union are aimed at diverting public attention.”
Armenia’s policy of joining the Customs Union is nothing but Russia’s “good wish.”
“This is the reason that [Armenia’s acting minister of economy] Vahram Avanesyan makes contradictory statements. This program is nothing, but a bluff. The authorities are trying to conceal their impotence.”
Armenia cannot join the Eurasian Economic Union without joining the Customs Union either.
With respect to official statements on Armenia joining the Eurasian Economic Union from January 1, 2015, Ghukasyan said that such statements should be expected “because the policy to show that Armenia can join the Customs Union and Russia is prepared for that will yet be implemented until the sides actually realize that there is no possibility. So as neither Russia can sacrifice its relations with Azerbaijan nor Armenia its relations with Nagorno-Karabakh. This process makes society think that Serzh Sargsyan is doing something.”
According to him, this is one of the “fruitless processes” like the Armenian-Turkish protocols, an Association Agreement with the European Union and so on.
As to whether launching the process was Russia’s attempt to prevent Armenia’s establishing even closer ties with the EU, Ghukasyan said:
“Russia is the world’s most mendacious states, ignoring international relations, and its conduct must not serve as a basis for political analysis.”
Head of the Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly Vanadzor Office Artur Sakunts can hardly explain such a U-turn in policy.
“Armenia’s authorities’ policy is so far from being logical that it is really difficult to find a reasonable explanation for such a U-turn. The only logic is that Armenia’s course is submission to Russia’s hegemony is obvious – no matter the Customs Union or the Eurasian Union,” he said.
Armenia will be CU member in about a month, on 29th of April the docs will be sent to be signed by current CU members. that is a done deal.
DeleteI have barely read your comment to the point where you brought up the name of that Sakunts piece of shit. i will refrain from calling names out of respect to Arevordi, but do yourself a favour and don't bring up that traitor's name on this discussion.
Anonymous,
DeleteArmenia is a severely dependent nation that cannot do much on its own, let alone build a railroad network with Iran. If we want Armenia to break out of its third world existence, Armenia desperately needs to be part of a major Russian-led financial/economic pact so that our ever-hungry chobans-in-Armani-suites can practice their trade throughout Eurasia and not just in Armenia. If we want Armenia to breath again economically, Armenia needs an easily accessible large market like the one the Eurasian Union promises to be, one that is also very familiar with Armenian products.
With that said, at the end of the day, Yerevan has no choice in these matters. Armenians need to get over the silly notion that Armenia is an independent state. There are only a handful of independent states, and the Russian Federation is the most independent of them all. Current trends in the region are being set by Moscow. Moscow is systematically reclaiming its lost satellites. Historically, Armenia has been, is and will continue being fully apart of the Russian sphere. Armenians need to be sober minded enough to understand all this (even if they don't like what's going on) and be clear minded enough to work with this situation for Armenia's long term benefit.
PS: If you quote assholes like Andrias Ghukasyan and Artur Sakunts once more, your post will be deleted.
Just because the controlled opposition "media" and idiots pretending they are "experts" say something, does not mean it is true. Learn the fine art of critical thinking, and analyzing the sources of claims and the self-interests motivating those sources before mindlessly parroting their lies.
DeleteAndrias Ghukasyan and Artur Sakunts are degenerate traitors of the worst variety. One wonders if they have any Jewish or Turkish ancestry in them to promote such venomous hatred for the Armenian government and the Armenian cause. The garbage lies they puke out are often more anti-Armenian than the stuff coming out of Turkish and Azeri nationalists.
TK: It does not seem as though you have been following the news closely.
DeleteEconomy Minister Vaghram Avanesian on April 17 said that Armenia will sign the agreement on joining the Customs Union on April 29. But he said the next day that Armenia WON'T be signing the agreement on April 29. Avanesian’s first deputy, Karine Minasian, clarified that the document "could" be signed after Russia, Kazakhstan and Belaurs formally agree to turn the Customs Union into a Eurasian Economic Union. In other words, the "possibility" of Armenia joining the Eurasian Union without getting to be a member of the Customs Union.
Then on April 21 Economy Minister Vahram Avanesian again acknowledged that the Armenian economy could grow slower than expected this year because of worsening economic conditions in Russia.
From the very beginning analysts were skeptical of Armenian accession to the customs union, not the least for the obvious reason that Armenia doesn't share a boundry with any of the member states, but a done deal? These contradictions certainly don't seem to point to that.
AREVORDI:
Do you really expect to be taken seriously with a comment like "Armenia is a severely dependent nation that cannot do much on its own, let alone build a railroad network with Iran"? I'm not sure where you get your news from, but no one spoke of Armenia's abilities to build a railroad netword with Iran "on its own". In case you weren't aware, several companies from Russia, China and Iran have shown interest in the railway construction project. In December of last year, Iran said it was ready to finance construction of its own section of the railway to Armenia. Such a project will link the country to the Middle and Far East.This will make the country a Middle Eastern hub for freight crossing to the east. Armenia will benefit strongly from this investment in infrastructure.A railway to Iran will open for it an alternative route for transportation of energy and other commodities. In other words, Armenia needs these types of projects to break out of its isolation and get the economy running and facilitate new trade opportunities.
As for trade with Russia, according to Armenian government data, Russia accounts for 23 percent of Armenia's foreign trade, compared with the EU's almost 29 percent share. Nevertheless, I still don't see what Armenia has to offer the Customs Union or how it could in any meaningful way contribute to that union. What is the purpose of Armenia entering the customs union if the organization is going make all these special exceptions for Armenia that do not apply to the other member states? Would you mind enlightening us? You see, on its merits, the feasability and practicability of Armenia entering that Union is foolish. Indeed, absurd for such a huge body to go out of its way to make "900 special exceptions" for one member state that has little to nothing to offer it. Indeed, such a move would put the credibility of the customs union under serious question.
The reason why you are incapable of properly understanding regional developments is because you are incapable of properly understanding regional geopolitics and Russia's role in it. Train yourself to see the big picture - and Armenia's place in it - without your biases, emotions or fantasies.
DeletePS: Please be kind enough to use a name when posting comments.
Vagram Avanisyan is not the economy minister anymore if you followed the news. there is no merging of CU and EAU for now. CU agreement will be signed on 29th of April and will be sent to be signed by others. Armenia aims to be a FOUNDING member in EAU by the end of the year.
DeleteFirst their ballistic missiles droped off their trajectories like chicken manure when they launched them in the mediterranean last year. Now their top notch destroyer shuts down in the black sea.
ReplyDeleteSukhoi Su -24 with the newest jamming complex paralyzed in the Black Sea the most modern American combat management system "Aegis" installed on the destroyer "USS Donald Cook".
http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_04_21/Russian-Su-24-scores-off-against-the-American-USS-Donald-Cook-5786/
The USS Donald Cook is one of Washington's sophisticated anti-missile defense platforms. When it first entered the Black Sea, media sources in the US made a big deal over the matter saying that Putin must be terrified. If this report is true, this is astounding news. I wish Zoravar can comment on this.
DeleteYes this has been in russian blogs for last 4 days, here are some links. but no official confirmation. but the fact that another USA navy ship and a french ship are coming, also if we read the reaction from USA next day after the incidence we can assume something did happen.
Deletehere are some links i gathered about this:
http://www.military-informant.com/index.php/analytic/5139-1.html
http://dokwar.ru/publ/novosti_i_sobytija/mnenie/khibiny_protiv_idzhis_ili_chto_tak_napugalo_pentagon/9-1-0-1316
http://topwar.ru/43986-chernomorskoe-priklyuchenie-esminca-vms-ssha.html
http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/1357883/
http://www.stripes.com/news/us/pentagon-russian-fighter-flies-provocatively-close-to-uss-donald-cook-1.277941
The SU-24MR did indeed buzz the US destroyer several times. That is all we know.
DeleteAnything else in the press is not substantiated. Let's not go into guesswork and speculations.
If we analyze the protocols, the raw protocols in itself, its implementation it was not in Armenia's interest. We are not going to pour out massive information as to the material consequences of the ill fated protocols; time and space does not allow it. Thank God that turkey did not proceed with it, for its own reasons. The diaspora armenians, contrary to many other views were supportive of the protocols. Some sectores were vocal in its opposition, however. After all the Protocols had/has the backing of the zionists USA and the EU. If the zionized West are in favor of the protocols, certainly it can not be good for Armenia. The West is nominally a virtual "unfriendly entity " of our nation, by the simply fact of her intertwined relations with Turkey which run very deep. The fact that the Protocols were not ratified by the Turks obviously puts the stinking shoe for failure on turkish feet. The Turks renege on it, not the Armenians. If in future the protocols are revived it will only be as a result of Armenian concessions on Artsakh. The two turkish states will never acknowledge the defeat in Artsakh, neither will they concede the autonomy or its integration into Armenia. peacefully. The conditions imposed by Turkey-- restitution of Artsakh to azer baijan-- can never be met by Armenia, never., therefore the Protocols will go nowhere. The ultimate question is what would have happened had the Turks signed the Protocols ?. How about turning the paradingms of the Protocols on its head and Armenia imposing conditions on Turkey such as the return of the Surmalu province, revision of frontiers and recognition of Artsakh as an integral part of the Armenian nation; finally recognition of the genocide and material compensation . Let's see if Turkey and the West support such an initiative. The opening of the frontier is ill advised, and no matter how disguised diplomatically it is ,in current political climate, it is not in Armenia's interest. we have mortal enemies waiting to snuff the life out of our nation. The diaspora knows this all too well, their only forum for action is to agitate for recognition in the countries and areas where their activity is noticeable. Acknowledgement and credit to the Diaspora which relentlessly pursues the goal of recognition and keeps the memory alive abroad. The diaspora also knows too well that Armenia does not feature in the USA-EU-Israel geopolitical agenda as an important role player . Turkey has been always been a pivotal cog in the grand scheme, imperial schemes of the West.. Armenia is excluded from Western plans of aggrandisement toward the East. Therefore the West will, as long as this situation endures, only pay lip service to the Armenian genocide, but will not alter its posiiton on the recognition of the genocide. Armenia hosts the largest USA embassy in the Caucasian region. It is an embarassment that such a mamooth complex in a country like Armenia it is a hub of international espionage and a nest of spies. Jachik
ReplyDeleteIf the protocols were/are harmful to Armenia, why didn't turkey ratify the agreement right away?
DeleteLG
Jachik,
DeleteThe formal agreement between Yerevan and Ankara was also fully supported by Russia. Let's remember this all happened in the aftermath of the Russo-Georgia war when the region began tilting towards Russia once more. In fact, Armenia first reached its hand out to Turkey during President Sargsyan's visit to Moscow during the summer of 2008, just before the war in Georgia. The "protocols" should be looked at as a culmination of a series of geopolitical developments in the region in 2008 and 2009. All sides at the time were vying for a good position - just in case Turkey agreed to open its borders with Armenia. Nevertheless, the document in question posed no threats to Armenia. In fact, it propelled Armenia on to the international stage. It's regretful that our people's political immaturity caused so much problems at the time. The ultimate test for the protocols is what LG mentioned: Had it been so dangerous for Armenia, Ankara would have immediately implemented it. The fact that it did not should say a lot.
For what it's worth, the following is my 2009 blog commentary devoted to this topic - http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/08/looking-at-armenian-turkish-relations.html
I think protocols were a great diplomatic tool, and now if they renounce them tomorrow they will be serve their purpose fully.
Delete(Part 1 of 2)
Delete-"The diaspora armenians, contrary to many other views were supportive of the protocols"
The diasporan masses were protesting in large numbers at the official visit of President Sargsyan, in a quality and quantity of protest that not even top Turkish officials get. Every major organization was out in force against the Protocols and against the Armenian government. The lower level AYF sluts and cowards were openly calling for President Sargsyan's assassination, as were some ANCA and ARF leaders in private.
I particularly remember Harut Sassounian's idiotic comments about how he'd never imagined that he'd have to rely on the US or Turkish governments to stop "Armenia's mistakes".
The only real support for Armenia's position came from Hayastantsi immigrants as far as I could tell, because they sincerely believed open borders could help Armenia's economic development. The traditional diaspora were all wailing hysterically about how the Protocols would harm the campaign to retake western Armenia (because the Turks were really totally going to be nice and give up western Armenia due to the Treaty of Sevres but then they found a loophole through the Protocols), or harm the Diaspora's fetish of having western war criminals bless the Genocide with their holy "recognition".
-"if the zionized West are in favor of the protocols, certainly it can not be good for Armenia."
Here's a little secret for you, if you delude yourself into thinking that the kikes are all powerful, then they might as well be all powerful. But history has shown time and again they are prone to miscalculations, especially when facing an adversary skilled in politics and history. Blindly believing that everything is a zionist trojan horse does not help our cause. The real strength of the jew is calmly, rationally, and self-righteously manipulating any situation until it serves his advantage; he does not have omnipotent, god-like powers to dictate every single happening on the world stage.
-"The Turks renege on it, not the Armenians"
The turks tend to overreact and makes asses of themselves on the international scene. They have, for example, accused the US of genocide in Iraq, China of genocide in its turkic western provinces, and the israeli scum of genocide in Palestine. Russia and Armenia naturally exploited Turkish hubris and the turks ended up looking like assholes on the international stage. Check-mate. Don't de-emphasize a total, calculated Armenian victory by chalking it up to a Turkish mistake; from the moment the Protocols were signed the regime in Ankara was besieged on all sides (Azeris, Turk Nationalists, Turk Liberals, anti-AKP secularists, anti-Armenia Islamtists, Kurdish rights activists) with protests.
-"If in future the protocols are revived it will only be as a result of Armenian concessions on Artsakh"
For the millionth time, Armenia views the two issues separately. This is an absolutely baseless statement. If the protocols are revived, it will be only due to Turkish concessions to dropping preconditions regarding Artsakh. You acknowledge so yourself when you state "can never be met by Armenia, never., therefore the Protocols will go nowhere."
(Part 2 of 2)
Delete-". The two turkish states..."
Have a lot of internal tension which Armenians and Russian should skillfully exploit. Don't fear them, as long as Armenia is secured by the Russian presence we must work on undermining them through smart engagement. The Turks are hardly united, and nowhere near invincible as you seem to imply.
-"How about turning the paradingms of the Protocols on its head and Armenia imposing conditions on Turkey "
That would be a separate game, the goals of the Protocol were not to force conditions on Turkey, but to push for open borders and to cause internal and external problems and pressure for Ankara. I have a feeling that no matter what Armenia does, however, there will always be educated/indoctinated armchair generals in the diaspora decrying the "selling out of Armenia".
-". The diaspora knows this all too well, their only forum for action is to agitate for recognition in the countries and areas where their activity is noticeable. Acknowledgement and credit to the Diaspora which relentlessly pursues the goal of recognition and keeps the memory alive abroad. The diaspora also knows too well that Armenia does not feature in the USA-EU-Israel geopolitical agenda as an important role player . Turkey has been always been a pivotal cog in the grand scheme, imperial schemes of the West"
Sadly this is far from the truth. The diaspora is absolutely useless and a liability for Armenia. They are a valuable tool for regime change in Yerevan by the west, and they are degenerate political-illiterates. I suggest you visit asbarez.com, or any english language Armenian forum and see the kind of globalist, Russophibic, color revolution rhetoric the educated/indoctrinated "elite" of the worthless diaspora pour out on a daily basis. I'm serious when I say this: fuck the diaspora, keep them the hell away from Armenia otherwise it will be the death of our homeland.
Recalling the clumsy way Armenian government miss-handled the PR campain for the protocol. I think they intended to get the kind of reaction they got from diaspora.
DeleteAs many of you probably already read erdogan came out with statement about april 24th and 2 days ago haffern said expect some big talk from Obama.
ReplyDeleteGuess Sargsyan is getting ready to denounce the A-T protocols tomorrow as we have talked about. step 1 after Kessab events.
Lavrov, fresh interview in english.
ReplyDeletehttp://rt.com/shows/sophieco/154364-lavrov-ukraine-standoff-sophieco/
Businessman Roman Yeremyan plans to launch a new brand of casual clothing: "Polite People"
ReplyDeletehttp://izvestia.ru/news/568975
http://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/bomb-syria-for-ukraines-sake/
ReplyDeleteIt's April 24. The above reminds us that inhumane evil and cruelty are, unfortunately, alive and well in the highest echelons of the US and EU regimes, and their puppet tools around the world.
It appears there is a great deal of perceptions out of place. Anyone wishing the Diasporans to F themselves is delusional and bizarre. Also there is not only one diaspora, judging from the various commentaries . I can not speak for the middle eastern diasporans nor of the USA due to the lack of interaction with them. If you take the diasporas in Greece and Argentina and Uruguay, these diasporans are a genuine expression of Armenianness.Any diasporan from the above named places will concede that there can be no Armenia without Russia's backing and support. To wish Diasporans to f off ? . It is one thing to target, isolate and challenge the misguided, the indoctrinated and brainwashed westernized Armenians and another thing to wish them to F off. Nothing would make the turks happier if the Diaspora were to F off their backs.
ReplyDeleteIt is very typical of your kind to take things out of context and misrepresent facts. The Diaspora can be a great asset for the Armenian state, or a great liability. Here is my take: The American-Armenian Diaspora has been - for the most part - a liability for the Armenian state. The European-Armenian Diaspora has been mostly indifferent towards the Armenian state. The Middle Eastern-Armenian Diaspora has been mostly worthless for the Armenian state. The Turkish-Armenian Diaspora has been mostly an embarrassment for the Armenian state. I personally have nothing but praise for the Iranian-Armenian Diaspora, the South American-Armenian Diaspora and the Russian-Armenian Diaspora. With that said, any Diasporan group that promotes Western agendas inside Armenia; any Diasporan group that attempts to drive a wedge between Armenia and Russia; any Diasporan group that places sociopolitical conditions on Armenia; any Diasporan group that wants to recreate Armenia in its image... can go and fuck themselves. And the end of the day, Turks are not remaining on their side of the border because of their fears of the Armenian Diaspora. The big talking and thus far under performing Armenian Diaspora needs to come down from its high horse and begin seeing Armenia as its "homeland" and begin supporting Armenia - unconditionally!
Deletehttp://www.haaretz.com/news/world/.premium-1.587389
DeleteThe istanbul "Armenian" community is almost entirely worthless. Servile, spineless cowards. Their whore women and cowardly men intermarry with the turks at a rate near 70%, without shame. Their behavior does not improve at all when they move out of turkey, they are connected to their beloved turkish motherland. There are extremely few exceptions I've seen to this rule. In a hypothetical ground invasion of Armenia, Ankara could draft the Istanbul-Armenian community as a whole and know that they will almost without question bow their heads and carry out whatever order is given to them.
Looking at their history, you see that they have been completely unconnected and completely unsympathetic to the peasantry from the Armenian heartland. They have seen themselves as the sultan's favored pet, enjoying a wealthy and privileged existence in constantinople. But the Armenianness has long been bred out of this psychologically damaged community.
Top U.S. Diplomat: Russia Has Betrayed the “New World Order”
ReplyDeletehttp://www.infowars.com/top-u-s-diplomat-russia-has-betrayed-the-new-world-order/
Pentagon: Russian Spy Ship, Tug Operating Near U.S.
http://www.infowars.com/pentagon-russian-spy-ship-tug-operating-near-u-s/
Downgraded By S&P, Russia Proposes “Scorched Earth” Retaliation Against NATO Countries
http://www.infowars.com/furious-russia-downgraded-to-just-above-junk-by-sp-proposes-scorched-earth-retaliation-against-nato-countries/
Check out this interview:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mGXDcO9ugw&list=UUSK57JMV0OJL1C7V-YOEVkQ
About the professional looking armed men. He says that they are volunteers from all over, but were formed at the core in the Crimea. He says 2/3 are Ukrainians from various regions including from Kiev and Zhitomir in the west Ukraine. He says almost all have military experience in the Ukrainian armed forces or Russian armed forces and even Yugoslav armed forces. Some have real combat experience, Russians in Chechnya, some of the Ukrainians were deployed in Iraq, some were private military contractors.
He says all their weapons so far have been aquired in the Ukraine itself.
I have updated and revised this blog entry. I ask you to please read it once more and share it with friends.
ReplyDelete"When celebration of gay marriage and mass shootings continue to make news headlines around the Western world, you know Western civilization is in decline. Western societies have become dumbed-down. Western men have become demasculinized. Western women have lost their femininity. Inundated by ultra-liberalism and multiculturalism, Western societies have lost the true meaning of culture, nationalism and a general sense of national direction. Over medicated, over entertained, overweight and undereducated, Americans have become a very strange hybrid within the human race. Western governments have been hijacked by mega-corporations and self-serving special interests."
ReplyDeleteArvordi, I am not into Russian stuff but I see them as the kind of up standing folk we need more of in the multiracial melting pot that is America today. But that's not what I wanted to say. As an American I cannot agree with you more on your words above. But please don't blame the regular folk over here for they are brainwashed. We Americans are living under foreign occupation but awareness is slowly spreading my friend. When they try to disarm the American heartland all hell will break loose. For God and country.
Russel
Russel,
Delete"God and country" is desperately missing in today's multiracial, multicultural, ultra liberal and consumer based culture of America today. America's last hope is indeed the population of its heartland. And awareness is of paramount importance. Only with awareness will the people be able to resist tyranny.
If I remember correctly, I think you have posted comments in this blog in the past. If so, thank you for continuing to read my work. Please know that I am not anti-American. I'm simply against the special interests that have hijacked this once great land and turned it into a destructive empire.
PS: Regarding Russians, you may like this sketch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRIsC764Nn4
LOL, that was a funny sketch.
DeleteGood video about Armenia from RT
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ4jU5siY60
@Arevordi, LOL that comic was very funny
DeleteArto1
Quote of the day:
ReplyDelete"In Russia, the president controls the oligarchs.
In the USA, the oligarchs control the president"
Brits stealing, whats new?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeXI4OtHprI
Thank you for sharing TK. That was pretty enraging to watch. History for the political west is just another weaponized tool in their globalist policies. "Ancient Turkey" pops up in the university history classes of the Anglo-American NATO members, including in "the land of the free." The British and worldwide Jewery are as involved as the Turks and Azeris in falsifying Armenian history and denying Armenian statehood, geography and cultural achievements, instead attributing our civilization to semetic or turkic tribes.
DeleteI have to ask, is there any reason not to absolutely hate the British? Is there anything at all that comes out of Britain which is not heavily anti-Armenian?
-The former bitch ambassador Thora Abbott-Watt openly stated in Armenia that the fact of the Armenian Genocide occurring was an open debate among historians.
-Artur Baghdasaryan was caught by the Armenian NSS in 2007 secretly discussing plan with the British Ambassador about organizing a forceful regime change in Armenia.
-Look at how little they respect Armenia, experimental husband-wife ambassadorships just aren't done in the diplomatic world:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2028369/Mr-Mrs-Ambassador-Bizarre-job-share-man--woman--Armenia-British-embassy.html
-IWPR. BP. The "Azeri Film Festival" in Yerevan...
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against English, Welsh, Scotish or Irish individuals, and I respect British culture and contributions to civilization. But from the days of the Crimean War (when they literally fought to kick the Russians out of Western Armenia and ensured the Genocide took place 50 years later) until today Britain has been the leading anti-Armenian power in Europe.
And the sad part is there are dozens and dozens of nations that Britain has damaged as badly as it has Armenia. The British Museum is a monument to history's greatest plunder. The English have a unique talent for maintaining an image of being gentle, polite and respectable as they rob and rape nation after nation. Thank God Russia has been there historically to keep them in check, and thank God they have become a degenerate society on an unstoppable decline.
What the Chechens are like today:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeEupwKyXAs
More progress on the Syrian front:
ReplyDeleteSyrian army cuts militants’ access to sea in Latakia (and approaches Kessab)
http://en.alalam.ir/news/1589228
Syria rebels surrender in border town
Fighters surrender in Zabadani, losing their last stronghold along Lebanon's border.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/04/syria-rebels-surrender-border-town-2014426152724543924.html
Alexander Dugin: Letter to the American People on Ukraine
ReplyDeletehttp://openrevolt.info/2014/03/08/alexander-dugin-letter-to-the-american-people-on-ukraine/
Masterfully written, really epic in its own way. American officials have been bragging in recent years that they learned to bypass foreign governments and deal directly with foreign masses, where they could promote their venomous ideas like democracy and pop culture with less resistance. Dugin's letter, along with President Putin's Op-Ed in the Jew York Times and the general pro-Russia coverage from RT are fitting responses to the West's own PR campaigns. Instead of the traditional tanks and missiles, the Russians are waging a war through mass media using the English language. The West is now the side that comes off as bumbling war-mongers killing in the name of an insane ideology.
The last part of Dugin's letter calls for the people of Russia and America to stand up to their common enemy: the American "elite" aka Anglo-American-Jewish establishment. The form almost looks Soviet, but instead of targeting capitalism as in the past, Moscow is now targeting the fully discredited and despised regime which is increasingly facing a backlash from its war-weary, bankrupt, unhealthy and increasingly alientated population.
Perhaps Russel is correct and there is a chance that enough people from "flyover country" can be woken up, and put an end to the madness that has governed the west for the past few decades.
@Russel, I hope you don't think anybody here hates the average American citizen. Many of the regulars here were born in the US or live here now. Contact with the average American on a daily basis demonstrates that most are not "bad" or evil people, just very naive and thoroughly brainwashed by the all-encompassing media and education system. We hate what the US "elites" (military, corporations, media, clandestine services, etc.) have been doing around the world, and particularly the negative impact these scum have had on the Republic of Armenia and its Russian ally. In fact, most of the people here are actually more "patriotic" than the average sheeple you see every day in the sense that many hold political views much closer to the ideals of the Founding Fathers (individual liberty, freedom from tyranny, freedom from bank/corporate slavery, etc.) than the globalism being pushed today. Each country is different due to biological and cultural factors. A strong, centralized government or National Socialism is best for Armenia and Russia at this stage in history; however the different regions of America, particularly the Midwest, would most likely be best served by a slightly modified version of the original Constitution. I personally think California and New York dominated coastal regions are a lost cause however, and I'm not holding my breath for anything positive coming out of the Southern Bible Belt either.
I would think that New York and California are like two separate nations from the rest of the American nation-state, seeing as they function well by themselves. The Midwest seems to be more libertarian though, but from my personal experience, the Pacific Northwest is the stinking hellhole of cultural Marxism, with tons of fag pride parades and political correctness gone out of control.
DeleteNational Socialism should be the best socio-cultural vaccine to heal all the nations in the world, though the brainwashed idiotic masses would seem to 'think' otherwise, if they even 'think' about anything. And come to think of it, it seems ironic that the Russians would use the very same weapons the Kabal Trio have used over the years.
So what do you guys think about the future of American politics? Will the empire change course and just blame all these failures on Obama?
ReplyDeleteEmpire's don't change course: They go head long into decline and eventual break up. In my September's blog commentary called "Russia Steps into World leadership Role", I said establishment in the US will now pin all the empire's failures on their house negro. We are currently seeing this process take place with the conservative/right in the country. As the economic situation keeps getting worst and as the middle class here keeps shrinking, even the liberal/left will begin view Obama's presidency as the time when the American empire took a nose dive.
DeleteI am reading these articles about sanctions and I am just baffled. They talk about "Putin and his cronies", I am baffled how people with all kinds of access to information, can't fathom to comprehend that this isn't about "Putin", there is a deep rooted cultural, civilization, and spiritual space on planet earth called "the Russian world" and that the Russian world calls Kiev "the mother of Russian cities", from Solzhenytsin, to Nikolaj Starikov, to the nobility of the white army -- no one was handing Ukraine to the west. As one Russian put it, Russia will fight for Ukraine with Satan himself, let alone the US and EU. They just don't get it -- this attack is on Russia itself and blather about sanctions.
DeleteRussia is fighting Satan himself...
DeleteThis picture is a good illustration of the Satan that Russia is fighting:
Deletehttp://i.imgur.com/pqLmQ38.jpg
There are too many things to report now, however I wanted to share with you that the last 2-3 months, Russian state channels have been showing interviews and documentaries about Armenians, the Armenian Church, Armenian Holidays, Armenian Genocide Commemoration, etc. Yesterday there was also an interview on Russia 24 "Церковь и мир" от 26 апреля 2014 года, by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Church (Metropolitan Hilarion of Volokolamsk) with the brother of Armenian Catholicos (Ezraz) promoting Russian-Armenian church relations (no differences between us), etc... anyways, change of attitude very, very noticeable.
ReplyDeleteVery encouraging news. I wonder how high up is this being coordinated. This is what I want to see take place on a regular basis and on a larger scale. Expressions of solidarity needs to go mainstream in both societies.
DeleteArevordi, there are a lot of things in the Russian civilization sphere that just happens. Russia has many geopolitical analysts and community leaders that work on and realize national interests that has nothing to do with the very top of the government. I think the current government is just an excellent captain of the Russian civilization, a lot of other things are just happening naturally.
DeleteBased on what I have seen in eastern Ukraine, I am convinced that Moscow is not coordinating anything -- Moscow is simply working with a reacting to what is happening as Russophile Ukrainians (really people part of the Russian civilization) are naturally realizing Russia's long term geo-strategic interests.
Incidentally, to add to Kim Philby's point, Armenians are being mentioned even in casual unrelated conversations lately.
On anna-news, the guy that runs his personnal news outlet called "the southeastern front", on April 24th lamented the Armenian Genocide and tied it to that days killing of people in Slavyansk at checkpoints by right sector militias.
Here is a piece on Armenia about joining the Eurasian customs Union:
http://lifenews.ru/news/132316
They showed how crowds started to protest president Sargisians decision about turning to eurasian customs. Incidentally, these elements in the Armenian society play right into the hands of Russian speaking anti-Armenian agent-provocateurs.
Additionally what this says is that there will be mutual benefits in easing economic traffic, Armenia would get Russian gas at domestic prices, benefits for Armenians working in Russia sending money back home, for Russia easy opportunities for direct investment into Armenia's infrastructure without any bureaucratic red tape.
Turkish journalist sentenced to 10 months for tweet ‘typo’
ReplyDeletehttp://rt.com/news/155500-turkish-journalist-sentenced-erdogan-insult/
Are the Fetullah Gulen Movement and the Erdogan regime at each other's throats now? The article states that Erdogan is moving to shut down Gulen indoctrination centers within Turkey. This is just speculation and an educated guess on my part, but could Gulen be an asset controlled by western intelligence being used to pressure the regime in Ankara by utilizing extreme political Islam, a faction that is opposed to the AKP's brand of political Islam? It makes no sense how this mysterious figure decided to move to some "heavily fortified compound" inside the USA and set up a network of charter schools across the west unless the power structure here allowed it because they saw it as an exploitable opportunity. Could the west view Gulen as a way of influencing the younger generation of Muslims that have infested the West? I wonder what other interests are at work here, what there end game is, and how they ultimately plan to use this as a weapon against Russia and Armenia. The west must be salivating at the thought of expanding the Gulen network into the South Caucasus, North Caucasus and Central Asia.
Whatever internal developments happen in the West and Turkey regarding Gulen, it remains abundantly clear that Arevordi is absolutely correct when he refers to Washington and Brussels as "anti-Armenian viper's dens". They are in bed with almost every major Turkish, Azeri and Islamist faction in Armenia's region, and it is getting harder to tell who is on top.
Interesting to note that Gulen has three "Magnolia Science Academy" charter schools in the San Fernando Valley where a very large number of Armenians live (Reseda, Valley and Van Nuys) as well as one in Hollywood not too far from the Little Armenia district:
http://turkishinvitations.weebly.com/list-of-us-schools.html
Well said, Sarkis,
ReplyDeleteI briefly mentioned Gulen in my blog commentary about the Tsarnayev brothers. Being that Gulen is a CIA-backed Islamic activist with branches in Turkey and being that Erdoghan's government wants to resurrect the Ottoman empire and execute Turkish politics independently, it is very conceivable that Gulen and Erdoghan will eventually clash.
Islamic movements such Gulen's are propped up by Western intelligence to be used against threats such as secular forms of nationalism as well as genuine, independently grown Islamic movements in the region. In the region's current political landscape, Turkey, with its strategically important location and large military, is a crucial asset for the West. Turkey is a front against Arabs, Iranians and Russians. As long as the region has an Arab, Iranian and Russian factor, Turkey will figure prominently in the West. With that said, Kurds are also increasingly becoming a geopolitical factor. Western powers envision Kurds to be used as a regional buffer against Arabs, Iranians and - Turks. It's all a matter of management. Nevertheless, any Armenian that thinks Armenia can somehow figure positively in what Western powers envision for the region is clinically insane.
Thank you for the explanation Arevordi. You are correct that only the insane and the idiotic would fail to realize that Turkey will always figure prominently within Western plans because the Arab, Iranian and Russian factors will never disappear from the region, and thus Armenia has no alternatives but to strengthen the Russian alliance.
DeleteI am confidant that Russia is proactive enough to have plans of its own in manipulating the Kurds to use against the west and its allies in the region. I think that Armenia can play an important role here, and controlled "Kurdish Rights" organizations can be set up in Armenia where Kurds are the largest minority, and those groups can agitate against Turkey and Azerbaijan and forge links with the Kurds in other states. Perhaps Russia and Armenia could even use Armenia's Kurds the way Israel uses its native Druze Arab population as a tool against the other Arabs... Kind of an extreme idea but may be worth exploring.
http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/world-news/international-news/10403-azerbaijan-backing-turkey-s-crackdown-on-guelen-movement.html
DeleteNotice that the current defense minister of azerbaijan is cited as possibly being a gulenist supporter.
LG
Some commentators here have at various times mentioned their suspicion and/or disdain for Raffi Hovannesian due to him being "from the West" or "trained in Western schools".
ReplyDeleteRaffi made some rather unprecedented comments while standing in front of the Haydarpasha Train Station in Istanbul--the site of transit to jail and eventual death for roughly 250 Armenian intellectual on April 24, 1915. He described the Armenian Genocide as, the "Armenian Genocide and Great national dispossession." This language implies a need for restitution. I can't say that I've ever heard a Western politician come even remotely close to this type of rhetoric.
Is he merely trying to grab peoples' attention or does this prove that he can sway away from Western talking points?
Here is the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr_v0_oQPK8
Raffi is mainly trying to stay relevant. He is essentially a burned out star within Armenian politics, he had his run and he lost. The only possibility for Raffi to retain any value of himself in the eyes of the Western propaganda machine and funding, which made him a candidate in the first place, was to "Hail Mary" attempt at stirring up a post-election revolution. He had virtually no support outside Yerevan and his supporters in Yerevan dispersed and went home after a few days of protesting. Frankly speaking the faction which propelled Raffi into a candidate lost permanently lost power in Armenia with the coming of the Custom's Union, so nothing he says or does has any real effect in Armenia. And the Armenian diaspora in the west has a much shorter attention span and memory than the citizenry of Armenia, so I suspect anything Raffi does is an attempt to avoid becoming a completely washed-up name in the coming years similar to other failed pretenders to the Presidency of Armenia in the past two decades. Basically his Istanbul stunt was a desperate cry for attention, relevance and credibility by a man whose impact and worth are quickly dwindling.
DeleteRaffi actually reminds me of a quote from the 1974 movie Chinatown with Jack Nicholson: "Politicians, ugly buildings, and whores all get respectable if they last long enough." In this case Raffi is a political whore for the West trying to gain legitimacy. So are his stooges in the "Heritage" organization, particularly the clown known as Zaruhi Boztanjian. Looking at their embarrassing and dangerous behavior, I doubt any of them will last long enough on the political scene to get respectable.
And don't get taken by Raffi's words, much like any politician he flip-flops on key positions as best serve his interests at the moment. There's nothing unprecented about his comments. It's mainly a tasteless PR stunt for himself trying to gain political capital by trying to take credit for the suffering of the Armenians that were deported through that station a century ago. Raffi's character more appropriately belongs in the village which decided to behead Mkhitar Sparapet to appease the Turks, because Raffi symbolically attempted to decapitate the Armenian state with his idiotic "brevolution" regime change ploy. Appo Jabaraian wrote this excellent article a few years back when Raffi decided to author a letter to the Turkish government and chose not to use the word "genocide" to describe the Armenian Genocide:
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/SiyasetMeydani/conversations/topics/44775?var=1
Raffi is an opportunist, just like his father. He and his entire family are in the service of the American empire. As long as he is not in positions of power he will say and do anything to make himself and his political platform look good in the eyes of the sheeple. But, similar to all Western officials, as soon as he gains power, he will change his tune. Besides, Armenian Genocide "recognition" should be last on the list of top priorities for the Armenian state. Let's wake up from fantasies and realize that Ankara will not 'willingly' recognize the Armenian Genocide, return Western Armenian lands and pay reparations to Armenians - and the West 'will not' force them to do it.
Delete(Part 1 of 3)
ReplyDeleteFreedom House: Don’t Be Fooled by the Name
http://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/freedom-house-dont-be-fooled-by-the-name/
In case anyone needed it, here is another expose on just how subversive Western-based "independent" think tanks and "consulting groups" are actually extensions of the Anglo-American-Jewish establishment. Freedom House regularly falsifies information about Armenia and Russia and promotes subversive freaks of all kind inside Armenia. Look at their Armenia webpage:
http://www.freedomhouse.org/country/armenia
The political west has successfully managed to twist and redefine words such as "freedom", "rights", "democracy", "justice", and "liberty" so thoroughly that whoever studies current politics and sociology, and who retains the ability to think critically, cannot help but develop an instant reaction of disgust and sickness whenever they come across these words.
One of Freedom House's Armenia page's top stories features a prominent photo portraying the jewish bitch and corrupt, convicted criminal timoshenko as a "human rights hero", which if Armenians had any self-respect they would be outraged in light of timoshenko's recent calls for a nuclear genocide against the Russian-speaking natives of Eastern Ukraine. And here is another article that caught my eye, I did not bother reading it but it seems those backwards Armenian men are "oppressing" their women again:
http://www.freedomhouse.org/article/threats-against-womens-rights-groups-escalate-armenia
Since the "women's rights story is at the top of the Freedom House page, let me paste a copy of the following analysis I wrote of just how stupid, backwards and idiotic Armenian men are portrayed in Western-produced films set in Armenia a while back after watching the filth known as "Here" and "Lost and Found in Armenia". There's never a bad time to refute the anti-Armenian lies of the western propaganda juggernaut:
A recent phenomenon we have witnessed is the non-documentary, English-language film which is set in Armenia and tells a more-or-less typical movie story that somehow or another incorporates Armenia and Armenians. Fair enough, the film industry produces hundreds of movies every year, and at some point or another some movie will end up involving any given country. Still, since movies reflect, or try to instill, a certain view about the subjects, it is useful to examine how Armenia is portrayed in western movies, and what messages are being sent across. And of course movies, just like any other form of mass-consumption pop culture, is carefully guided from above to promote ideas that the establishment powers favor. It is a well-documented fact that politics, businesses, public relations firms, the military and several special interest groups have a strong presence behind the scenes in the creation of any movie today.
Both Here (released in 2011) as well as Lost and Found in Armenia (2013) are mindless and illogical stories about American men who travel to Armenia, only to be mistaken as turkish spies by bumpkin-like caricatures of Armenian soldiers or villagers who harass or capture them. Luckily for our American protagonists, these men are always helped and saved by the "strong-willed", "independent", "I demand respect, and my name isn't 'honey'" Armenian female characters which the producers insert into the film. Needless to say, not too long into the movie, the American men succeed in either sleeping with the Armenian woman, or at the very least have the Armenian women fall for them romantically. The Armenian women in these movies are shown as educated/sophisticated, naturally they are busy at University in Yerevan studying English (in fact in both films the Armenian women first serve as translators for the western men, and then as love interests).
(Part 2 of 3)
ReplyDeleteThe Armenian women are shown as being fed up with constantly having to turn down marriage proposals from the bumpkin-like caricatures of Armenian men portrayed in the movie, and the Armenian women behave depressed and longing for "something more" as Western feminism (possibly the most destructive force ever unleashed on formerly healthy European nations and America), mainstream media, and educational/indoctrination centers have conditioned us sheeple to believe that women in "oppressive" cultures like Armenia would behave. I have nothing against Armenian women educating or improving themselves, and for that matter no true Nationalist who loves Armenia and understands that Armenians, both men and women, are the lifeblood, wealth and future of our ever-embattled and ever-resilient nation. But the dynamics between men and women in these movies is modeled on the way White women are portrayed as "liberated" in western entertainment media, while White men portrayed as cowardly and incompetent, who always lose the women to a "real man" usually portrayed by a black, hispanic or other minority actor.
Some readers will understand and agree completely with the analysis above, while a large number of others will likely initially feel repulsed by what comes off superficially as "misogynist" or even "racist." But I ask all readers to keep an open mind. We all know that values and morals in Western societies are degenerating at an alarming rate, and that most of what is shown on television and movies is poisonous garbage and outright lies. The tools for building an alternate reality in which absurd lies are presented as fact, such as the claim that abandoning Nationalism somehow strengthens the Nation; or the claim that traditional Armenian/European/Western cultures are designed solely to "oppress" women and that the only remedy is militant feminism and total sexual promiscuity; or that large scale emigration, immigration and multiculturalism are now inevitable and desirable after several thousand years of a natural diversity of races in which Armenians lived in Armenia, Italians in Italy, Chinese in China and Africans in Africa. We cannot allow the insanity that currently prevails in the Western world to begin infecting Armenia, step by step through cinema, through NGO's wrecking havoc in Armenia, through foreign-crafted "educational institutions" in Yerevan, and through "opposition media" constantly spreading doom and gloom among Armenian society and countless other avenues through which Armenia faces contamination.
Lost & Found in Armenia seemed to especially revel in portraying the worst type of backwards Armenian villager behavior, replete with villagers who occasionally let it slip that they secretly love turkish and azeri television and music (because deep down turks and Armenians are genetically and culturally the same, right!?); fat, slovenly, unkempt housewives; and men who are as clueless as can be about any and every random topic that the producer can force into the plot and tons of other underhanded slights. None of that "noble native folk" here that you see in movies that involve Israelis or any other third-world, non-European ethnicities. The Armenians are portrayed pretty much the same as the "Kazakh village" that Borat in from in the beginning of the Borat movie. I imagine that this is the type of Degenerate "Art" which was proliferated during the Weimar era in Germany when the German Nation was facing foreign funded cultural, demographic, economic, moral and spiritual collapse.
(Part 3 of 3)
ReplyDeleteNothing is sacred to these people in their attempt at "comedy". During the one scene when the girl explains to the American how bad the Artsakh war was (many family members and friends of the crazy villagers died, she had to stand as lookout at age nine, Azeri troops still on the other side of their mountain village...) and for a moment it appears the filmmakers wanted to insert a message sympathetic to Armenia, the scene is interrupted by one of the Armenian bumpkins knocking the American out with a shovel and kidnapping the girl as a bride using a large sack, just like Borat does to Pamela Lee. They then crash into Azerbaijan, are captured, and the girl is saved from rape by our ever helpful American. There is absolutely no respect for the memory of victims of a war which ended only nineteen years ago, or to murdered Armenian civilians like Manvel Saribekyan who was brutally killed after accidentally straying onto Azeri territory.
We can only conclude that these movies reflect the general state of the Armenian Diaspora in the west: negative, hopeless, doom-and-gloom visions of Armenia; culturally barren and derelict, and with the only salvation being through the female Armenian characters turning their backs on their own people and aiding and abetting the "well-meaning" Westerns who are misunderstood as spies by the backwards, overly-suspicious local men. A friend commented that "these films are almost unknown outside of the Armenian public," which is actually true and brings up a good point: In producing such filth, are they merely aiming to denigrate further the already tattered image of Armenia and Armenians in the eyes of the Diaspora... Or in other words are these innocent attempts at humor and drama, or are these psych-ops designed to further spread poison among Armenians? The most-disturbing part is that the opinion of these movies that I have gotten from reviews by other Armenians are all along the lines of "OMG it's a movie about Armenia!!! And hahaha that is really funny satire about how stupid Armo villagers are! Thank you to the actors and production teams for making these awesome movies and raising Armenia's international profile like this!!!" Of course, I do not blame individual Diasporans too much for this view, after all they like all Americans are taught from an early age to be embarrassed about their National heritage, and are hammered night and day with doom and gloom stories about Armenia "being a dead end", as the current American Ambassador, and Armenian Genocide denier/white-washer John A. Heffern recently stated.
These are just a few key facts out of countless facts and examples which prove the dangerous and nefarious campaign against Armenia, through movies and through the information war in general. As a proud, "smart" race, it is imperative that we Armenians recognize this crap right away when we see it, and we call it out for what it truly is: An Anti-Armenian Psychological Operations Campaign, one which threatens the moral and psychological health and well-being of the Armenian Nation.
Sarkis,
DeleteOf course you won't be surprised that the Borat (the scenes showing Borat's home village were filmed in the Gypsy village of Glod, Romania btw) comes from the same "art laboratory" as the Plutser-Sarno's Voina and Pussy Riot. Or the Romanian filmakers who won diverse prizes at Cannes for depictind the Romanian life in the darkest possible colours (Christian Mungiu who said that early Miloš Forman and Robert Altman are important filmmakers who influenced him!).
RomAn
RomAn, I actually remember seeing Borat when it came out with my best friend, who is an Armenian from Romania. Romanian is his native language, he pointed out that the "Kazakh" people in the video were speaking Romanian. The fat guy in Borat was speaking Armenian throughout the movie. It made me laugh back then, but now I see it for the mindless, low-brow trash that it is.
DeleteAnd of course when you depict traditional Europeans in the darkest possible light, the west awards you all sorts of prizes and money and celebrity status. I generally don't trust most "artists", filmmakers, celebrities, musicians, journalists or political experts unless I am familiar with their work because these are the types of influential trendsetters which influence public opinion, and most of them have been tainted by western propaganda, ideas, lies, and money. A good way to tell if a movie is worth seeing is if the western press attacks it, for example there was recently an Armenian movie about the heroic general Njteh, I guess the west did not like it so they started a campaign to mock its most powerful scene in their controlled media. I'm sure you have similar stories from Romania.
The turks, the ottomans and every strain from the East which migrated west has been since the fall of Constantinople part of the Western web of empire. There was an intricate intertwining between the Europe of Empires and the Ottomans. Albeit a demarcation of lines and respective spheres of influence, but fundamentally they operated in tandem. Armenia was used in the WW1 to weaken the Ottomans and strengthened the Allies in their forthcoming clash with the Entente powers. Once the Armenians were out of the way, and the Ottoman empire carved up the Allies did not hesitate to back up and bolster ataturk and the new turks; it was serving their most fundamental interests. In 1922 the Allies also brazenly and cravenly stabbed the Greeks in the back and abandoned them in their war against Turkey. It is otiose to revel in conceptions on how Armenia can become important to the West, in whatever disguise USA, EU or Israel, the West is dressed. As long as Turkey remains steadfast, they the turks act like the rotweilers of the West in the region. The Europeans did not vacillate in granting westernized colonies and citiies stretching to thousand years of history to the power of the turks. Constantinople and the bosphorus should never have been surrendered to the muslim Turks in 1922. The turks are a virtual American colony and an Israely appendage, whether they know it or not. The EU is a virtual Amercian colony. The question is how stretched should the americans become before the springs of their empire begin to snap. It will not snap overnight, it coud take many decades. The Ukraine is another test to their grandiose global schemes. A stalling setback in Ukrania can de stabilize the Americans and the EU. It is a start, but not the end. The West will strike the moment Russian power starts becoming a discomfort for them. At the moment the Russians have proved to be of a nuisance factor to western designs. Crimea was not a crucible, nor a test. Crimea was Russian. However the Eastern region of the Ukraine is also Russian, but the West is agitating and lining up Nato and any European nation that can align itself with their plans. The Israelis, the cover for the jews , are a very calculating race, Their power base resides in the West, but they also have allies and surrogates in the East, and having visited China recently, it is amazingly amusing to scratch the surface and suddenly one finds " Chinese jews" or half chinese and half Jews, in important positions in commerce and industry. In Russia the Juden oligarchy has been checked, but has it been checkmated ? The moment the West perceives their compatriots are two moves away from a checkmate in Russia rest assured a complementary war to the current economic war will also be waged . On the turkish scenario seemingly it appears to be quiescent . As for Gulen or Erdogan both are turks and that says it all. Erdogan made some emetic sounds regarding the " clashes between turks and armenians " " Clashes"? ,and offered some insipid and vapid condolences to the grandchildres of the survivors.
ReplyDeletehttp://asbarez.com/122466/russia%E2%80%99s-offer-of-easy-citizenship-sparks-concerns/
ReplyDeleteHere we go again
LG
Comrade LG, I see no reason why we cannot counter their bumbling attempt at black P.R. and turn it into a major victory for our side by utilizing the opportunity to further spread our views. Very few visitors will bother to read past the title of the article, and even less will manage to comprehend what they read and instead head for the comments. The filth at Asbarez, both the staff and the worthless self-styled "Armenian" cyber-warriors are utter garbage in it comes to argument skills and writing capabilities. They write incoherent rambles that prompt normal commentors to refer to them as "turkish trolls" on a regular basis. Our side has the talent, intelligence and dedication to decimate them and the poisonous western ideas they regurgitate in the "marketplace of ideas". Let's get to it:
Delete"As an Armenian Nationalist, I put my country and my fellow Armenians well-being at the top of my priorities. As such, I am thankful that a rich country like Russia has made is so easy for the unemployed, poor laborers in Armenia to temporary migrate to Russia and find respectable work there. Seriously, the life of a seasonal worker is hell. These Armenians have families to feed and support. And thanks to the over two decades of illegal blockading of Armenia by NATO, and the temporary separation of Armenia's economy from former Soviet-era focus of economic activity in Russia have left Armenia's economy to weak to provide employment to everyone. Stress-free migration for seasonal workers makes a huge difference in the lives of thousands of Armenian laborers, and serves as a vital lifeline for thousands of Armenian families. And thankfully Customs Union membership will greatly improve Armenia's economy by reconnecting Armenia to the large Russian, Kazakh and Belarus markets where Armenian products sell well, are well-known and appreciated, and don't face the type of competition and state protectionism that is found in the highly-overregulated EU. In fact, Armenia needs to seriously consider establishing a common border with Russia through Georgia or Azerbaijan in order to attain greater military security and economic opportunities.
I'm sure the usual suspects will be here spewing forth their usual venom against Russia. I ask the readers to ignore their nonsense. Consider how, if the situation were reversed and Russia had enacted a policy restricting Armenians from migrating to Russia for work, then these very same voices would again spew toxic venom at Russia. This is because these Western-inspired cyber-warriors are not interested in strengthening Armenia politically, socially, spiritually, culturally, militarily, or economically. They merely act as the vanguard in the Western disinformation, doom-and-gloom, and black propaganda campaigns which have been waged against the Armenian nation since the fall of the USSR, in conjunction with the NATO blockade and the buildup of Azerbaijan as a petrostate with billions to spend on its war-mongering armed forces. I honestly cannot understand how these armchair generals, with barely any knowledge about Armenia and even less knowledge of geopolitics, history and economics can sit back in comfort in their homes in the USA and have the audacity to condemn programs these Russian aid programs which help Armenia avoid total collapse and suffocation caused by the NATO blockade. The pinnacle of hypocrisy is for people who have absolutely no intention of ever spending an extended period of time in Armenia to condemn the poorer segments of Armenian society who must travel to Russia and engage in manual labor to support their families back home in Armenia. Frankly it is the worst kind of class discrimination against Armenians mixed with senseless racism and Russophobia against a superpower which has done enumerable favors for our tiny republic, its citizenry, and even our compatriots in Kessab.
God Bless the Russian-Armenian Alliance, and protect it from all enemies foreign and domestic!"
two news articles that will make us all very happy
ReplyDeletehttp://arka.am/en/news/society/some_80_percent_of_armenians_endorse_russia_s_annexation_of_crimea_survey/
http://arka.am/en/news/society/migration_rate_in_armenia_is_comparable_with_global_rate_expert/
Arto1
Thank you for posting this. These two topics - Armenian migration rates and Armenian attitudes towards Crimea/Russia - are fundamentally important.
DeleteSome Ukraine news:
ReplyDeleteIn Lugansk, the "pro-Russians" captures a number of administrative buildings include a police building. They forced the police chief to resign while lower level officers accepted the St. George ribbons handed to them by the protesters. The weapons are now under the control of the pro-Russians although they haven't been taken out of the building since the whole building is in control of the pro-Russians.
In Donetsk region, another police station in another small town was taken under control. The supposed Spetznaz GRU operative Igor Strelkov gave an interview to Russian media (for some reason this supposed spetznaz guy openely declares his name and keeps his face uncovered). He very calmly explained all the mass of forces arrayed against them. The reported asked how they are able to carry out their operations with such odds. He said that the reason being is that Ukraine army soldiers are very demoralized when they see that the local people don't support them. He said the Ukraine army soldiers are upset with them for not coming into the open field to face them like are hiding in the town like "terrorists", but he said we are not stupid and will obviously not expose ourselves to Grad systems and helicopter gunships, we will fight on the terms where they have to face us face to face -- but they are not prepared to do that because they will suffer plenty significant casualties.
The baptist turchinov had a come to Jesus moment today where he declared that his counter-terrorist operation was a failure due to the special Alpha units being "cowards" and "inadequate". He also admitted that they are losing control of Lugansk and Donetsk due to the fact that there are many what he called "tricked" people by the Russian propaganda -- and he said something very telling -- he said that there is a very significant part of the population that supports the "terrorists" and Maidan taught us that when there are enough of the masses, law enforcement ceases to be effective.
John Jihad McCain is continuing his anti-Russian jihad now in Ukraine -- the Alzheimer patient seems to be confused with his conflict zones. Ukraine already has a crapload of both anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. These people seem to be creating their reality of what is happening on the ground and then conduct a circle jerk of each other.
It is a very good thing to have facilitated the migration of workers to Russia. Russia is near. Where else would they go otherwise ? To the cesspools of turkey, EU or USA.
ReplyDeleteBravo Arevordi! Keep fighting the good fight and I sincerely believe history will be on our side! Ooorah!
ReplyDeleteHere’s an analysis by Fursov that will interest the board.
ReplyDeletehttps://wikispooks.com/wiki/Document:Battleground_Ukraine
anonymous comment :
The exchange in bad euphemism s and divisive arguments does not invite to build a collective thought and add credibility to the blog. I am sure you agree nothing builds on success and furthers it. Sometimes even some of our comments may not sound realistic and could come through illusionary it can still be inviting and a departure of morose realism that always transpires to defeatism with the ultimate realization of defeat. Heralding a positive thought process could break the mold that is so engrained in a society that wants to impress by keeping the so called balanced arguments. Rarely breakthrough are realized with such thinking process. Make sure they see what others cannot see , to think what has not been thought before, to herald something before its realized, build positivism !
http://www.infowars.com/van-rompuy-unelected-eu-will-control-europe-and-flank-russia/
ReplyDeleteTwo points I'd like to make:
1) "have all of the former Soviet states in the Balkans and 'the whole of European territory outside Russia' linked to the European Union"
If I may borrow a phrase from our idiotic Russophobes and use it in a situation where it actually applies, Armenia will never allow its sovereignty to be sold to any treacherous foreign power, and above all not to the Turk-infested, immoral, multiracial center of faggotry like the EU. Von Rompuy, Carl Bindt, and all of the other unelected queers leading the EU should focus on helping their wives, daughters and mothers "spread diversity" to their most intimate of areas. I am glad President Putin and Russia are there to stomp these bankrupt cockroaches if they ever attempt to cross the line, but I wish Armenian officials had the courage to make well-worded, emotion-free, professional statements "the EU must respect the choice of the Armenian nation to keep Armenia-EU relations as between equal partners, not masters and slaves. Such infringements onto Armenia's sovereignty by EU officials is extremely troubling and reflects an unwelcome pattern of intervention by the EU which has resulted in death and injury to civilians, including Armenians, in Syria, Crimea, Ukraine, and elsewhere. Any further interference or unprofessional insinuations by the EU into Armenian national affairs will force us to review relations and take appropriate actions."
2) "the declaration of economic warfare against the Russian people and lauded the country’s “slide to recession” "
If Russia is "in depression" then the status of the EU economy, which is relatively much weaker than Russia's, must be "clinically dead". These idiots fail to understand that Russians have weathered years of hellish warfare that make today's reality seem like a stroll through the park. Unlike the effeminate men of Europe today, the Russians won't turn on their government because Russians have retained their national pride, Russians by and large see that two decades of extending the hand of friendship to the west has only resulted in strengthening the West's desire to surround and destroy Russia, and Russia unlike the Western states does not have a ZOG which is despised by the common citizenry. At this point it is difficult to tell if Western leaders have started to believe their own lies about the impact of their laughable "sanctions" against Russia... I almost want to see Russia triple gas prices overnight just to put the squeeze on the tough-talking west.
http://rt.com/news/156292-slavyansk-army-special-operation/
ReplyDeleteThey are on a relentless provokation campaign against Russia. The Ukraine is now an open field, open space to be conquered. The EU and their string pullers have installed a gang of brigands masquerading as government of Ukraine. How will Russia respond ? If the Russian populated regions come under threat of violence and physical harm, Russia will have to intervene somehow. At this rate the much vaunted ukranian democratic elections can not be held unless the eastern regions are brought to heel by the Kiev marionettes. It is unlikely that the Nato warmongers will cross established boundaries. They will constantly provoke Russia hoping they will make an error of judgement and swallow a bait which may ignite the fuse. The NATO monsters will not stop though. It is a college of psicopaths, overblown hubris and self conceited arrogance displaying bufoons . The second Nato commander has said that Russia is now considered an enemy, and that Nato should extend security guarantees , install weaponry in those countries, to previous countries of the former Soviets. The scoundrel mentions Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, amongst others, in one breath. The man is ignorant of geography, and seems to be oblivious to Russia and Armenia being bound by mutual treaties . This is begining to resemble the French-English guarantee to the Poles of their territorial boundaries. An empty guarantee which could not be fulfilled, but an optimum bait to entrap their opposition in making an error of judgement. Since Ukraine is now an open field, and the EU and USA are muscleing themselves in, Kiev; it is anticipated that Russia will respond appropriately to ensure the integrity of the eastern regions. Kiev is lost to the West; however the East can still be saved. Russia can not let the East to be taken over or captured. Slavyansk appears to be surrounded and blockaded; ferment is also brewing in Odessa. More army troops are being sent by Kiev to the Eastern sectors.Tension is increasing.
ReplyDeleteI want to point out just how criminal this operation is:
ReplyDeleteValerij Krutov is the man in charge of this punitive operation. He has evacuated his family to the United States and has demanded 5 million dollars to carry this out.
Ukrainian helicopter gunship pilots are being offered 5000 dollars. But now, that choppers have been shot down, and literally the shot down pilots are not being rescued-- they are hesitating and word is that jew-oligarch Kolomojskij is now offering 300000 dollars.
As I pointed out in the main body of my blog commentary, the last two/three weeks in eastern and southern Ukraine is a new phase that may last for some time - unless an unexpected escalation in the crisis brings it into a new, more drastic and bloody phase. Moscow has meticulously created a new reality on the ground. The effort has been both ingenious and monumental. Despite the military raids we have been seeing by the Western-backed junta in Kiev in recent days, junta officials (perhaps with the advise of their Western handlers) are making sure that their response against pro-Russian forces in the east and south remains measured and limited in scope. We do not have a large scale military invasion of the eastern regions by them primarily because they realize that such runs the risk of drawing in Russian forces waiting just over the border. If given the order, Russian troops will be soaking their feet in the Dnieper in two or three days - and there is nothing that the West can do to stop them. By not responding in force, junta officials are therefore allowing pro-Russian forces in the east and the south to solidify their holdings and spread their movement into other regions. The Western experiment in Ukraine has backfired. The junta in Kiev is screwed no matter what they do. The West is currently suffering historic defeats on two fronts - Ukraine and Syria.
ReplyDeletehttp://en.ria.ru/world/20140430/189491130/Armenians-to-Receive-Over-20000-St-George-Ribbons-for-Victory.html
ReplyDeleteThat is awesome.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/US_AZ/status/461669388429840384/photo/1
ReplyDeleteLook at the cunt Pelosi toasting with Armenia's enemies. And this bitch gets hundreds of thousands of dollars every election cycle from Armenians.
LG
H.RES. 106–Never Let a Man Do a Woman’s Job
Deletehttp://asbarez.com/55933/hres-106-never-let-a-man-do-a-womans-job/
They have kissed her ass for a long time and given her undue praise, and looked the other way as she fucked Armenians over. Not that genocide "recognition" actually matters, but the last major Armenian Genocide bill actually had enough votes to pass if Nancy Pelosi would have scheduled it for a vote. According to some friends I had from the ANCA, Pelosi ordered Schiff, the drafter of the resolution, to write her a letter asking that she not schedule the bill for a vote under the pretext that the White House and major group of officials and ex state department chairmen came out against the resolution passing.
Of course Pelosi is no different from "pro-Armenian" Obama, Kerry, Biden, Richard Gephardt, Samantha Power, Robert Menendez, Mark Kirk, Jane Harman or any of the hundreds of other reptilians in suits that Armenian-Americans have bent over for over the years.
The truly sad thing is that Armenian-Americans actually believe that they have the "second strongest lobby in Congress behind the Jews", and that Armenian influence would increase exponentially "if only we contributed as much money as the Jews" to various elected officials. What a load of shit, the Armenian lobby's power is so miniscule that it barely registers any effect past Glendale city elections (and even there they fuck up very badly), and talking about campaign contributions to politicians is just disgraceful considering the paltry amounts the US Armenians contributed to Armenia Fund.
Nancy Pelosi is one of the American empire's most "pro-Armenian" official and one that enjoys widespread support and adoration by American-Armenians throughout the US. Well, I see now that Nancy is raising a glass to toast the US's strategic partnership not with Armenia - but with Azerbaijan! She is perhaps also sharing a few laughs with them about the ever-gullible American-Armenian community and that silly thing called the "Hay Tad". Anyway, I don't want to make too much of this "pro-Armenian" official's insulting photo op with asiatic barbarians, but I have to say this: What is it going to take to finally convince our idiots that US officials cannot - by the very nature of Western politics - be a friend of Armenians regardless of how many times Armenians bend over for them? While they have been giving the American-Armenian community lip service, Western officials have also been actively conspiring against Armenia. But, despite it all, American-Armenian community representatives continue to proudly do the bidding of Washingtonian reptiles inside Armenia. In final analysis, Armenians in the US deserve every spit in the face they get from their beloved masters in Washington.
Deletehttp://www.rferl.org/content/kyrgyz-ngos-to-hold-protest-against-customs-union/25370321.html
ReplyDeleteYou call can be certain that the funding for these NGOs comes from the West.
LG
Today an absolutely honorific event took place in Odessa. The right sector and "ultras" scum burned alive pro-Russia demonstrations. Over 40 died.
ReplyDeleteQuite frankly allowing a radical mob to mass murder people is a an act of genocide.
Incidentally, the Armenian girl Ermina Katanjian, reporting from Slavyansk says that all western media has been evacuated out of the city only her lifenews, as well as Rossia 2 and Rossia 24 remain -- presumably a second attempt to storm the city is happening.
This may not very tactical of me and downright emotional, but I am now very hopeful of a Russian military intervention that would allow citizens of all the south-east cities to arm themselves.
Note the junta cannot control the political dissent in the south-east so they resort to pogroms being carried out by radicals.
I think your reaction is quite appropriate. No one should ever stand by with indifference as innocent civilians are killed, and especially not an Armenian. Since we are all nationalists and familiar with history here, the massacres we have seen in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere should strike a very deep chord with us because they bear a lot of similarities to what Armenians have experienced in 1915 and 1988, just on a smaller scale. The fact that massacres of innocent civilians at the hands of NATO is being whitewashed by the controlled media should outrage anyone, while the negative national security implications such actions have on Armenia should make our group here particularly concerned.
DeleteThe "activists" and self-righteous assholes in the diaspora talk ad nauseam about "never again", yet when the very same Turkish/West alliance commits massacres in this day of "democracy and international law" throughout the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa, the diaspora is either completely silent or actively cheering on the perpetrators of the massacres and calling for more bloodshed and bombings. This is because of a lack of understanding, critical thinking, self-respect, proper leadership, unbiased media, poor education, and general brainwashing by the neocon/humanitarian interventionist media.
Let me just take this opportunity to remind everyone here about just how absolutely worthless the near entirety of the "Armenian" diasopra in the west and middle east truly are not just for Armenia and the Armenian Cause, but for humanity in general with extremely limited exceptions for a community numbering over a few million people. Anyone interested can visit the English language Armenia media, forums, and social networks online and see for yourself how adamantly the majority of posters support the NATO campaigns of death and destruction throughout Armenia's periphery, and decry the fact that Armenia's government and Russia's military are preventing similar scenarios from being repeated in Yerevan. I understand many are "just brainwashed", but they are adults and we don't have the luxury or tolerating and making excuses for millions of traitors. Arevordi is correct that "a penny spent on the diaspora is a penny wasted". There is no point "talking friendly" or constructively to these helpless, self-destructive imbeciles, they are corrupted beyond the point of salvation. The west never misses a chance to insult them, including every April 24 and every "leading pro-Armenian politician" who poses for photo ops with the Turks and Azeris"; we should not sugar-coat the well-earned contempt we should all have for these disgraceful subhumans.
Notice how the Western press is not covering the deliberate arson that killed dozens of civilians who were simply trying to protect their city from an armed invasion. Had this occurred back during the Maidan protests in Kiev and the culprits were President Yanukovych's supporters, every single one of the propaganda outlets posing as news organizations in the West would have bombarded us with a multitude of /heartrending news reports on a 24/7 basis. The faces of the dead would be made public for all to see and lament and emotional interviews with dead activists' family members and friends back in their home villages and towns is all we would be seeing for days on end...
DeleteYes Arevordi, I did notice that. They are reporting it as an "accident" when a fight broke out between "sepratist" and "pro-Ukraine". The fact is that this was a premeditated pogrom.
DeleteThe fight happened on the other side town, these were people who had their tent city up for a long time now, were completely unarmed, and completely did not suspect that anyone was coming to attack them.
Incidentally, this government showed its complicity in the pogrom as the police stood to the side and did nothing.
One worrying development is that there is an element within Russian society that is getting very frustrated with the government for what they see an inaction. There may be elements of both provocation and true emotion.
Governments cannot act on emotion. Well, let me rephrase that: Governments of major nations cannot act on emotion. There is an overall Russian plan for Ukraine, as well as a series of backup plans. The Russian agenda inside Ukraine will be carried out systematically and without action rooted in emotions. The element you speak of is a good sign. The Kremlin is actually doing its best to create hardliners in Russian society. As these voices grow in both numbers and intensity, they can be exploited by government officials by either using their complaints as one of the reasons why they will send Russian troops into Ukraine or simply allow the more adventurous ones amongst them to join the fight. In my opinion, what we are seeing is an expected part of the current phase: Moscow is creating circumstances that will irreversibly put a wedge between eastern and western Ukraine. These deaths serve that very purpose. As more deaths occur, hate and fear will spread and both sides will harden their positions. With Russian support - via GRU and other special forces - eastern and southern Ukraine will manage to remain largely free even without a Russian invasion. Moscow will then have to decide what it wants to do with these defacto autonomous regions. Although annexation is Moscow's ultimate plan, I do not think Russian officials are willing to go that route just yet. I think a Nagorno Karabakh type situation will prevail in the pro-Russian regions in Ukraine. The phase after that may seen an annexation. Anyway, let's wait and see. The next few weeks will be pivotal.
DeleteArevordi, of course I totally agree with you. I think there is a fine balance between the tactical/strategic aspect and the human emotional aspect. I know I am personally very stressed for these people would like to see Russian soldiers at the very least securing border crossings, but at the same time there is the geo-political/propaganda aspect at play. Certainly I think Armenian people can relate to 1991 when azeri Omon were carrying out similar types of punitive operations against the population of Artsakh while the Republic of Armenia could not intervene directly due to politics.
DeleteIncidentally although this is in the Russian language, but I think the pictures will still make sense. The Russian media essentially put the photographs of those responsible for carrying out the punitive action in the south-east.
Could it be, that Russia may be laying the ground work for its own war-crimes tribunal?
http://www.vesti.ru/only_video.html?vid=595939
Things are getting a little ugly. I was hoping for more of an economic collapse to follow and more of the blame going to the right sector, but before this happens it seems that desperation is playing a role in all this. There is no future for Ukraine in it's current state. The right sector has been bused into Odessa to do the dirty deed. Meantime as bad as it is with this crime they lost 2 choppers, two downed Hinds are not a joke. Savagery is the only thing Ukraine has in response to two downed choppers. This is a failed state and unlike the Middle East the West can't simply walk away from this, this is not healthy for the West in the long or short term.
ReplyDeleteMy advise would be to send a few more anti tank and anti aircraft munitions for punishment. Continue this approach and bleed the Nazi troops slowly. However I'm shocked at the right sector, these bastards joined Hitler in WWII. Can't understand how the Jew can tolerate these bastards for the sake of a few bucks. These guys are just short of being as bad as the anti Assad liver eaters.
Vahram
Time has passed, no longer is it April, no longer the 24th. So it is safe to post this now, for it bring sorrow only to but a few. It no longer matters to anyone but a few.
ReplyDeleteFor the tears of the few, Never has so many tears have been shed for so many by so few.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX07K5XBSdc&list=FLBWen1c_IP7hNhrqVprxH1g
Getze Hayastan!
Vahram
Pentagon Admits "No Solution" To Replace Russian Rockets To Launch US Military Satellites
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/pentagon-admits-no-solution-replace-russian-rockets-launch-us-military-satellites
Ukraine is like Yugoslavia where the pro-Russian Ukrainians are like the Serbs and those who follow the fake created identity of what "Ukrainian" are the Croats. There is a very interesting historical parallel here.
ReplyDeleteIn Yugoslavia the most brutal killers of the SS were the Croat Ustashe. Most normal Croats sympathized with the Ustashe. In Ukraine it was very much an analogous situation with with Ukrainian insurrectionist army and their "policing" actions aimed at other Ukranians and Belorussians. Their crimes against humanity are well archived and documented.
What is shocking today is how many citizens of modern Ukraine have essentially been sucked dry of their humanity. On Ukr social sites and media they refer to those who died as "separatists". On one media show I saw, radicals were giving their opinions expressing no remorse and in fact saying they should further arms the radicals. On a skype connection one young man was giving a direct report into their studio proudly declaring how they burned the "separatist" camp down -- the audience burst out in applause.
In much of Russian social media there are references made to a crime perpetrated by those Ukrainian elements against the Bellorussian villagers in the village of Khatyn and the decendants of those Ukranians are at it again.
http://khatyn.by/en/tragedy/
What this link above doesn't tell you, is that these "fascists" and "nazis" are actually Ukrainians not Germans.
http://www.rferl.org/content/odesa-dispatch-eyewitness-to-a-night-of-deadly-violence/25371973.html
DeleteWell this is how at least one western media outlet is covering the Odessa fire killing story.
LG
Photo of Israeli Orbiter 2M drone in use by Azeri Army in provocative "war games" near Armenia-Azerbaijan frontlines:
ReplyDeletehttp://razm.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/orbit-480x384.jpg
Source: http://razm.info/42640
Another chosenite shill peddling anti-Armenian and anti-Russian propaganda.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141385/brenda-shaffer/nagorno-karabakh-after-crimea
LG
Everytime that I almost start to feel bad about constantly referring to the lot of these cockroaches by the term "kikes", I am reminded why they deserve all of the negative attitudes they bring upon themselves. There is no nation that works as hard to undermine Armenians as these scum. Some rebuttals to this trash:
Delete-"as ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan’s province of Nagorno-Karabakh rallied to join Armenia... it took control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other Azerbaijani districts"
Azeri-derived historical revisions give away her biases already by the fourth sentence in this filth she managed to excrete. I suppose if she had more space, she would have included something about "ancient azerbaijan" or maybe even lake "gokce" and "irevan". "Took control" should read "liberated" and "seven other azeri districts" should read "parts of the ancient province of Artsakh artificially separated by the jew-dominated Bolshevik regime in the 1920s."
-"status of a territory inhabited by 90,000 people"
Looks like jewish inconsistencies in mathematics are not confined to the realm of financial accounting and keeping track of "victims" in the Hollowhoax fairytale. Artsakh's current population is around 145,000.
-"As long as Moscow backs Yerevan, Baku can do little to make peace with its neighbor."
The first proposition is true, but Baku has no interest in "making peace". Typical doublespeak.
"the unresolved conflict guarantees that Armenia will not ask Russian forces to leave."
The Artsakh war does not calculate as high as the NATO/Turkey threat and to a lesser extend dangers from Iran and the local Muslims."
"Sargsyan announced Armenia’s withdrawal from the European Union’s Eastern Partnership"
False. Armenia did not "withdraw" from the Eastern Partnership. It merely confirmed its decision to join the Customs Union, which any idiot could have seen coming a mile away. The EU then threw a tantrum and withdrew from signing deeper trade agreements with Armenia after realizing Armenia's government had pulled the diplomatic equivalent of a "hit it and quit it". I'm sure Brenda Schaffer can sympathize with the EU through many similar experiences in her own personal relationships.
-"Washington has tried to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group"
This is an attempt to "cleverly" sneak in the Azeri argument that the Minsk Group should be replaced by another body like the UN or EU or NATO. Armenians in this articles audience are not asleep and should have spotted this immediately. Armenia's position is clear: negotiations will proceed in the Minsk Group format only. The Turkish head of PACE cavusoglu tried to revive the PACE subcommittee as an alternate format a few years back, and Armenia flatly rejected it. Anyway the Minsk Group has 11 members, and 8 of them are NATO members (France, USA, Germany, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Turkey). And out of the remaining members (Finland, Belarus, and Russia) only Russia is pro-Armenia. Please see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OSCE_Minsk_Group)
-"Azerbaijan no longer trusts the international community to implement its resolutions and legal statements and has turned to building up its military power"
DeleteAzeri talking points. Should Armenia "trust" a nation that makes a national hero out of an axe killer, or destroys cemeteries and cultural monuments of global importance such as the Katchkars at Old Jugha? And "building up military power" is doublespeak for "blatantly violates the Treaty of Conventional Forces in Europe".
-"Now that Russia is in the West’s doghouse for other reasons, though, there is no reason to soft-pedal the issue"
Now that the west is in Russia's doghouse, there is no reason for Russia to soft-pedal its status as hegemon in the South Caucasus. I call on Moscow to destroy western agents and institutions in the region, starting with Armenia's controlled "media", controlled NGOs, and controlled "opposition".
-"Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent statement on the suffering of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during World War I"
Erdogan's ploy was rightfully rejected by Armenia. Even the normally clueless diaspora rejected it. The author is grabbing at straws as the Turks have zero influence left in the Caucasus.
-"Iran, which in the past has supported Armenia in the conflict, is so bogged down by its own economic chaos that it appears uninterested in actively undermining a settlement."
Iran has never had as tense a relationship as it does with azerbaijan. Look at the recent spats of border incidents there. If Iran feels weak or threatened, its more likely to lash out at Baku, particularly since Azerbaijan is a puppet stage for Israeli campaign against Iran.
-"the United States could quietly agree that it would not seek NATO membership for any additional countries bordering Russia in return for good Russian behavior"
LOL. Russia is NEVER falling for that crap again! To quote president bush "fool me once..."
-"Meanwhile, the United States should also support Ankara’s policy"
Genocidal pariah states have a way of finding and complimenting each other.
-"But such trade can only be granted if Armenia withdraws from a significant portion of the occupied territories"
President Sargsyan made it clear that Armenia will never compromise on Artsakh during the Protocols period.
Now this is cool!
ReplyDeletehttp://thearmenite.com/magazine/infographic/armenia-numbers-armenite-mega-model/
LG
So overnight, the only thing the junta forces managed overnight is to shoot up a car with 3 young women all of whom died and all their attempts ended in miserable failures everywhere in Donetsk. In the meantime in Lugansk, the militia forced the retreat of Ukraine military from the west out of a local baracks.
ReplyDeleteThey have called full mobilization of men in that region and are currently handing out weapons to people after passport checks.
Recent events have served to harden the resolve on both sides of the river. The deaths in Odessa have placed perhaps a permanent wedge between west and east. Fear, hate and now an urge for revenge are the psychological factors driving the people into action throughout the region. Ethnic divisions in Ukraine has reached a point of no return. There is no turning back from this. The eastern and southern regions will have to be militarily defeated or they will sooner-than-later gain autonomy.
ReplyDeleteThe prevailing situation is in Russia's interest, not the West's. For their volatile experiment to have been considered a success, all of Ukraine would have to have been under the Western backed junta in Kiev.
As I had mentioned in my commentary, Moscow manipulated events in the region and presented Kiev with two stark choices: 1) Stand back and allow the pro-Russian movement set deep roots and spread to other regions. 2) Carry out a full scale strike at the pro-Russian separatists and give Russia a legitimate reason to intervene.
It was expected that the Western backed junta in Kiev would have chosen something in between, a mix of the two: Kiev has thus far been carrying out only limited/measured strikes and raids. Kiev is not standing back and allowing pro-Russian forces freedom of action, but it is not carrying out a full scale military attacks either.
This limited strike option employed by Kiev of course has a corresponding response by Moscow. I call it - Karabakhization.
What do I mean? Not having the proper justification for a full scale military intervention, Moscow is systematically turning the region into a hotbed of armed resistance. Pro-Russian activists in eastern and southern Ukraine will get all forms of support from Russia (including arms, money, humanitarian aid, volunteers and of course special forces) via the largely unmonitored borders between Ukraine and Russia. As more pro-Russian activists die, this process will intensify. With Russian support, pro-Russia forces will be expected to keep the Western backed junta in Kiev at bay and thereby win defacto autonomy.
If, however, the plan does not work out, that is if pro-Russian forces suffer setbacks and are on the verge of defeat, I think Moscow will then be ready to send in the troops.
In all this, factor of time is extremely crucial for the West, for Kiev and for Moscow.
This is an extremely high stakes game being played by Western powers and the Kremlin. Regardless of what happens going forward, this conflict will continue in one form or another for many years and will always have the potential of turning global. We are officially in Cold War II. No more bullshit about "partnerships", smiling photo ops or joint operations. A new iron curtain of sorts will descend, this time compliments of the Anglo-American-Jewish world order. The current political climate will no doubt shape our future. Let's all pray this does not escalate into a major global conflict. Let's also pray that God gives President Putin the wisdom, the perseverance and the strength to pull through. Make no mistake about it, this is a fight between good and evil. This is a fight between civilization and abomination. This is a fight that Russia simply put cannot lose, for this fight is not only Russia's fight, it's humanity's fight.
Arevordi, one thing - I would be careful about saying the ethnic aspect. It isn't the ethnic aspect here, it is ideological in nature. From what I've seen there are people with obvious Russian backgrounds, including the "punisher" carrying out the operation in south-east who are followers of bandera and there are, of course, Ukrainians who are much in the pro-Russia camp. The split is between the ideology developed in Galichina (west Ukraine) and those Ukrainians who look to Russia. Some of the folks in south Ukraine I've been keeping in contact with are Ukrainians who are definitely on the pro-Russian wagon.
DeleteIncidentally, there are reports of heavy military activity in Crimea over the weekend.
I just wish all these good people were not being sacrificed for the plan. But thats how its always been I guess.
DeleteArto1
Slightly off the current topic, but:
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Pantheon_of_Tbilisi
The Judeo-Turkic-Georgian obsession with desecrating Armenian graves and cemeteries is a manifestation of the pathological inferiority complex that these inferior, barbaric peoples feel towards Armenians.
Here is the vesti report. By the way, reporters are opennely using words such as: "fascist", "Khatyn",
ReplyDeleteAll the gory details:
http://www.vesti.ru/only_video.html?vid=596697
Battle today:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf0OFAfL5Q0
Here is a beautiful propaganda image on Igor Strelkov and his men:
http://media.cackle.me/75efd6d6dd40e4bfa843aba87bbaf6de.jpg
He gave an interesting interview:
http://rusvesna.su/news/1399323435
Here is what he says:
Did you see a small part of the battle? Understand anything that's happening? Right! Nothing!
And that's how it is in war. Someone is shooting somewhere, no one wants to die, you can't see the enemy, but can hear them, bullets are whistling by and they don't see you either.
Concerning losses: contrary to reports, he says he lost 5 of his fighters in the fight - out of how many total he won't say -- says its a secret.
Avakov says there are 800 of them. Also Ukr media was reported four junta loyalists killed and something like 30 injured.
Kiev Junta have so far lost 5 helicopters (3 Mi-24 gunships and 2 Mi-8 military transport):
ReplyDeleteApril 25: 1 Mi-8 was lost at Kramatorsk airport (crashed and burned on an AN-2 biplane)
May 2 : 2 Mi-24 were shot down at Slavyansk,
May 2 : 1 Mi-8 was hit and crash landed there too.
May 5: 1 Mi-24 was hit and crash-landed in Slavyansk.
Some photos:
The Mi-8 from the May 2 crash: http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bmpd/38024980/1163120/1163120_original.jpg
The Mi-24 from the May 5 crash: http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/bmpd/38024980/1162176/1162176_original.jpg
Huge St. George flag and pro-Eurasian Union banners in Kishinev (capital of Moldova).
ReplyDeleteYes, this is Moldova itself (not the pro-Russia Transdniestria breakaway republic).
Please watch all the pictures and the videos on this page, it is a big eye-opener:
http://point.md/ru/novosti/obschestvo/v-kishineve-razvernuli-gigantskuyu-georgievskuyu-lentu-1/2
In my opinion, this deserves the photo of the year title:
ReplyDeletehttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-suN6KR9qX5M/U2ew1Dl1MFI/AAAAAAAAG5M/rdF5aUB2UbI/s1600/7YswreadjL.jpg
Looks like the ST. George flag will be featured on the military equipment on the May 9 parade:
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/KNVczeg.jpg
May 5 at night: Cossack fighters coming in the mining town of Antrasit (Lugansk region). Unknown if they are Don Cossacks from the region or Kuban Cossacks from Russia.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi20JwfkB1c
The same tank that was used by their parents to defeat fascism is called back to action.
ReplyDeleteA 70 year old T-34 tank from a WWII memorial was taken off its pedestal and pressed to join the Lugansk self-defense forces.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKtCwUfFx-c
You guy will be interested in this related news item
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/iran-admiral-us-ships-target-case-war-080413639.html
Zoravar, thank you for the posted materials. A lot of this feels very surreal for me. Although it's been going on for some time now, I sometimes have to remind myself this is not a dream. Haven't we seen this essentially same scenario play out for centuries? It's the same geostrategic calculus, the same territory, the same players, the same foe, the same defenders, a new time.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling, officially, Moscow is going to stay on the sidelines as they pump men and materials into eastern and southern Ukraine. I think they weighed their options and decided that the best/safest route forward in Ukraine is to organize and arm the pro-Russian locals and have them resists the junta in Kiev.
I am wondering what are your feelings regarding all this.
Agreed. It seems that the Kremlin does not want to use military force unless it really has to. We can only guess where Moscow has drawn the red lines...
DeleteIn addition, they have not used economic leverage (such as cutting gas) yet either.
Currently the Russians are using the local pro-Russia elements and diplomacy. But no matter what, I am sure Putin will make the Kiev junta (or any future pro-west government) have very difficult times when in power.
"No, Bolshevism is not returning to Moscow. No, the Soviet Union is not returning to Armenia. And no, the Russian nation does not have the appetite - or is stupid enough - to ever seek the resurrection of the Russian Empire. Thus, when we talk about greater Russian involvement in the context of former Soviet republics, what we are essentially talking about is a Russian-led confederation of independent states closely working with each other. Suggesting anything else is utter nonsense derived from Western propaganda, political illiteracy and/or paranoia. We therefore need to put aside the silly notion that Russia is somehow trying to recreate the "Soviet Union". This type of tacky fearmongering is the by-product of professional Russophobes such as Zbigniew Brzezinski, warmongering psychopaths like John McCain and opportunistic reptiles like Hillary Clinton."
ReplyDelete@ Arevordi, I am a periodic reader of this blog but never commented prior to this. Just got finished reading your work. Your words appearing above is a very well stated response to recent discernible attempts to scare the Armenian public away from Russia. I have no love for communists and I can hardly be considered a russophile for I don't speak a word of Russian but I do agree with you and other here that for better or for worst Armenia's future is tied to Russia. Why not make the most of it?
@ Zoravar, I very much enjoyed reading your insightful report. The military aspect of the crisis in the Ukraine is slowly beginning to make sense. I kindly ask you to please make an addendum to your work after watching this week's victory days celebrations in Moscow.
Dandz
Russia says is withdrawing her troops from the ukr border and asking the anti Kiev to postpone referendum
DeleteSeveral things caught my eye in this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://news.yahoo.com/hagel-warns-americans-risks-isolationism-163944254.html
-Isolationism? The Us has been engaged in non-stop warfare and war-mongering in Europe for a century, and even longer in east Asia and Central and South America. The standards have been shifted so far towards extreme interventionism that not instigating an ever increasing number of direct wars on foreign soil is labeled as "isolationism" by America's worthless, bought-and-paid for politicians, even though the US has troops in dozens of countries, bases around the world, and is currently engaged in a handful of proxy wars and bombing campaigns. Again it's hard to determine how much of this is just a poorly crafted lie intended for domestic consumption, and how much of it is the delusional ravings of a psychopath who has lost touch with reality.
-He try to blame the American public for being "war-weary". A clear indication of just how out of touch Washington is with the average American. Had the American elite and oligarchy not been so greedy, they would have allowed some more of the wealth they have pillaged across the world to trickle down to their masses and keep the workers fed and content. Given the fact that today's American wars mostly involve dropping bombs from remote controlled drone aircraft and don't require any serious sacrafice like rations as was in the past. Thus the war weariness must be more psychological and based on the factors below:
The decline in living standards, out of control inflation, rapidly disappearing jobs, the fact that everything is made in Mexico and China, the extreme regulations and surveillance the government has introduced into every aspect of public and private life, completely unaffordable healthcare costs, the proliferation of drugs and processed foods and NGOs, open gang warfare in most major cities and border regions, increasing restrictions on gun owners, increasing mass shootings, celebrations of abortions and gay rights despite the fact that a majority of the population is against these things, bailouts of banks and large corporations while millions of average Americans go bankrupt and homeless, mass immigration and multiculturalism, the destruction of the American family, and a lack of meaningful choice through elections, just to name a few.
-The article hints that Obama is to blame for not being belligerent enough, despite the fact that Obama's administration bears responsibility for Libya, Syria and the Ukraine Crisis. Reminds me of Arevordi's prediction that when the dust settles the establishment will pin the decline of America on Obama.
-In the "big picture view", it is disgusting to see the monstrosity the US has become. The founding fathers of the US advised the nation not to get entangled in foreign, particularly European, intrigues and wars. They rejected taxation without representation and all-powerful, monarchial powers being granted to the central government... Fast forward to today and see how far the US has fallen.
-At the end of the day, I don't care what happens to the west. But Armenia must fast-track its membership to the Customs Union, integrate further into Russia's protective umbrella, kick out the various assets the west has throughout Armenia and reduce Armenia-West relations to a bare minimum before they infect Armenia with their various diseases.
Also and interesting read:
The CIA's Nationalists in Ukraine & Russia
http://www.tomatobubble.com/ukraine_nationalists.html