The Geopolitical Necessity Of Armenia's Alliance With the Russian Federation - 2007

The Geopolitical Necessity Of Armenia's Alliance With the Russian Federation

All the indicators suggest that Moscow wants to hold Armenia within its political orbit at all costs, even if it means it has to twist a few arms and break a few heads to do so. Taking into serious consideration the volatility of the current geopolitical order in the world today and the overt aggressions emanating from Western led forces, I fully support what Moscow is doing within its zones of influence. 

Regarding Russo-Armenian relations, there should be no limits set to this friendship. Although Moscow is only concerned about its national interests, their actions in the greater Caucasus region are, nevertheless, having positive repercussions for Armenia. The Armenian Republic today has political weight internationally and it is untouchable by foreign forces primarily because of its close multilateral alliance with Russia and to a lesser extent, Iran. 

I would like to address the following concern that many Armenians have regarding Yerevan's close relations with Moscow: The supposed lose of Armenia's independence.

In getting closer to Russia, Armenia doesn't need to worry about losing its independence, Moscow is not seeking to incorporate Armenia into its federation. However, if in the future there is another major calamity in the region and Armenia has an option of joining the Russian Federation for its survival - I say, why not?

For the foreseeable future, Armenia will be a vulnerable nation in a region populated by many predators. In a worst case scenario, I rather have Armenia survive within the Russian Federation as a autonomous region than survive as an Iranian, Azeri or a Turkish province. In final analysis, in the Caucasus, it's all about survival. When you are a tiny, impoverished, landlocked, blockaded and a resource-less country surrounded by enemies you will naturally tend to seek powerful friends. In this regard, the Russian Federation is our only option in the region.

Obviously, Armenia also needs to maintain close and cordial relations with the West and Iran. However, when it comes to the West, Armenians should 'never' think that Armenia's national prosperity, or national existence for that matter, is a subject of concern for Brussels or Washington. In this regard, it is no secret that many within Russia's political and military elite, as well as their intelligencia, realize that Armenia's existence as an independent pro-Russian nation within the south Caucasus is crucially important for Russia's longterm national interests.
 

Russia and Iran have both had a long history of rivalry against regional Turks. Even today, Moscow and Tehran do not wish to see the rise of Azeri and/or Turkish power in the Caucasus region. Thus, Armenia can serve as a natural buffer against Turks and their western supporters. This is precisely how Armenia has become a geostrategically pivotal nation for Moscow and Tehran. Nevertheless, I firmly believe that without the Russian/Soviet factor in Armenia's national historiography there would not have been an Armenian Republic today. 

A point I would like to emphasize here is that as long as true Russian (Slavic/Christian Orthodox) nationalists are in power in Moscow the Armenian Republic has not much to be concerned about. Although relations between Russia and Armenia today are close and strategic in nature, Moscow was not playing nice with Yerevan for a while. Relations between Yerevan and Moscow were not very stable during the 1990s. There was a real threat back then that Armenia would brake away from the Moscow's orbit. Some have even claimed that the parliamentary assassinations in Armenia secured Russia's dominance in Armenia's internal affairs. Reality is that Moscow can make or break nations in the Caucasus, especially now that they have been roaring back to life - with a vengeance. 

Let's take a close look at Georgia and Azerbaijan, they have both essentially become hostages to Moscow. Baku nor Tbilisi are able to resist Russian pressure even though they both have direct access to the outside world, and very close alliances/relations with Turkey, EU, USA and Israel. How would an impoverished and landlocked Armenia would have fared had official Yerevan opposed Moscow's overtures in Armenia?

Taking the above into consideration, it is easy to see why Russia wants to control Armenia's economy, namely the energy sector. Moscow wants to ensure that Armenia is not able to breakaway from Moscow's orbit, and Armenia today is in no position to call the shots with Moscow. In other words, Moscow does not want to place hope in Armenian politicians making the right decisions every few years. By controlling a nation's infrastructure, its lifeline, you secure its allegiance. Taking into serious consideration our people's political inexperience, I support Moscow's actions in Armenia and I fully support the pro-Russian Hanrapetutyun (Republican) party in Armenia. 


At this stage in our national development, especially in the Caucasus, Armenia can't allow its citizenry to decide sensitive geopolitical matters. The practice of true "democracy" in a nation like Armenia can potentially prove fatal for the nation. Consequently, due to the geopolitical nature of the region in question the Armenian republic has no other choice but to remain firmly stand beside Moscow. 

In my opinion, in this day in age, when battle-lines are already being drawn within various geopolitical theaters around the world, the Armenian Republic 'must' seek to become a Russian outpost. This term - "Russian outpost" - used by a Russian politician several years ago in describing Armenia's relationship to Russia outraged many Armenians worldwide. I ask: why the outrage? Just like western Europe is an American outpost, just like Saudi Arabia is an American outpost, just like Japan is an American outpost, just like Georgia is an American outpost, just like Turkey is an American outpost, etc., Armenia's best bet, its only option today, is to remain as close as possible to the Russian Federation and their regional apparatus.

In my opinion, Yerevan needs to more-or-less distance itself from Washington. Accepting money from official Washington is like taking money from a loan shark. Moreover, the US empire today is on a global rampage of exploitation and bloodshed, and its favorite choice of weapon has been the false notion of bringing "freedom" and "democracy" to the oppressed peoples of the world. However, as we have seen, when Washington's version of "freedom" and "democracy" does not succeed in helping realize its agenda, it soon becomes Washington's "shock and awe" time - as we saw in Serbia and Iraq. 


The fact of the matter is that Uncle Sam is a sick pervert with a blood lust and he has no place in Armenia's internal affairs. Armenia does not need the "democracy" nor the "freedom" that is exported by Washington - more often than not on the tip of a sharp bayonet. What's more, it does not take a genius to realize that the world's most corrupt, the most undemocratic nations have tended to be Washington's closest partners. Today, the bloodiest and the most destructive entity on earth is the political/military apparatus in Washington. Ideologically and geopolitically Armenia's rightful place is with the Russian Federation. 

However, Armenia should appreciate Russia for practical reasons as well. In my opinion, the future potentially belongs to Russia. Russia controls the largest oil and gas reserves on earth; Russia controls the largest landmass on earth; Russia controls the largest amounts of natural resources on earth; Russia has managed to monopolize virtually the entire gas/oil distribution of central Asia; Russia has finally been able to brake the shackles of their western antagonists; Russians are now on a fast pace resurgence militarily, politically and economically; Russia controls the politics of the Caucasus; Russia controls the politics of Central Asia; Russia controls the politics of eastern Europe to a large extent; And with their economic/military alliances with China - the 21th century potentially belongs to Russia.

What's more, by far, Russia is Armenia's largest and most lucrative trading partner. Annual trade between Moscow and Yerevan is currently over $500 million and it will most probably reach somewhere around one billion in the near future. What's more, Armenia's most affordable source for gas and oil is Russia. What's more, Armenia's only source for affordable and modern military hardware is Russia. What's more, Armenia's only source for nuclear fuel is Russia. And Armenia's only hope in fending off Turkish and/or Azeri aggression in the Caucasus is Yerevan's continuing alliance with the Russian Federation. The only other strategically vital nation for Armenia is Iran. The hard reality is that a tiny, impoverished and landlocked nation like Armenia does 'not' serve the geopolitical interests of the western world - especially when the Armenian nation has serious problems with the West's most vital allies in the region, namely Azerbaijan and Turkey and to a lesser extent, Georgia. Simply put, Armenia only serves the geostrategic interests of Moscow and to a lesser extent, Tehran. 


This is the hard reality in the world today. This is our reality in the Caucasus. This is what our national destiny has dealt us, at least for the foreseeable future. Armenians are naturally concerned about Russia owning a large share of Armenia's energy infrastructure and many of its vital and potentially profitable industries. I agree that these concerns are valid and such a situation may potentially have some longterm negative consequences. In my opinion, however, we need to place this concern in a proper perspective:
Let's make believe that we have a king ruling over a small, poor, resource-less and a landlocked nation that is blockaded by neighboring enemies and is under a constant threat of a major war. This nation is located within a hotly contested region. There are foreign forces attempting to cause trouble for the small nation internally and externally. The nation's economic industry is dead and it has no secure and/or efficient access to the outside world. The king does not have the proper means to support his social infrastructure. And he knows well that some major powers in the world are in bed with his enemies.... Then a powerful emperor from the north sends the king a proposal: "Pledge your allegiance to us, let us run the infrastructure in your country and we will protect you militarily and we will trade with you."
As king, what should he do? 

Yes, it's a very though call. The gloomy picture I painted above is not a fairytale nor is it an exaggeration, it is more-or-less the accurate depiction of the geopolitical situation Armenia faces today in the Caucasus. Let's remember that the Caucasus does not allow for mistakes. The last time we made some political mistakes at the turn of the 20th century, and look at what happened - 2 million dead and near total destruction of our ancient homeland. The ruling administration in Yerevan, for various reasons, personal and political, have decided that the best way for Armenia to go forward is by allowing Russia full access in Armenia. In an ideal political situation I would have opposed such deep levels of Russian control in the Armenian Republic - but politics in the Caucasus is far from ideal.

Nevertheless, the Armenian Republic is not able to utilize its industry effectively. The fact of the matter is, Armenia does not have the resources, it does not have unhindered access routes, it does not have the money, nor does it have the international contacts for its industry to operate independently and efficiently. What's more, Armenia needs to import its energy - gas, oil and nuclear fuel. As I highlighted above, the Russian Federation has more-or-less a monopoly of the region's energy resources and its distribution. As a result, if not Russia, who is Armenia going to rely on for its domestic energy needs? Yes, Armenia has begun dealing with Iran regarding energy, but Iran has serious problems. Iran is virtually under siege and if the West could have its way they would cut off Yerevan from Iran in a heartbeat.


What's more, due to Russia's strategic concerns, Moscow does not want to see Yerevan relying on anyone else but Russia. As a result, Russian officials are forcing Yerevan to allow Moscow to get in on the deal with Iran. So, what can Armenia do at this stage? What options does Yerevan have? Play hardball with Russia by dealing with Azerbaijan and Turkey? I don't think so. Moreover, let us take into consideration that the Russian Federation in its vastness is also an excellent market for Armenian products and a good indirect route to other markets around the world. Therefore, under these prevailing conditions and circumstances in our homeland, why not allow Russia full access into our economy - especially when they are strongly imposing themselves upon us? At the very least, let us find some comfort in the thought that a major superpower today is taking its relationship with the Armenian Republic very seriously.

However, Russia has tended to have internal problem throughout its history. At times, the Russian nation has been very volatile. Russia may be Armenia's dependable partner today but an unforeseen internal problem in the future may change that overnight. This has already happened to Armenia several times in the past. I would like to emphasize yet again that as long as true Russian nationalists are in power in Moscow the Armenia does not have much to be concerned about. Unfortunately, being in the situation it is in today, it is natural that Armenia will be dependent upon a major power for survival. In my opinion, while it lasts, we should take full advantage of our close relations with Russia to strengthen our nation's military, economy and international standing. This way, if the Russian Federation has another one of their internal upheavals in the future, our small nation would not be as vulnerable it has been in the past.


Those who bitterly complain about Armenia not having true independence due to the Russian presence in the nation are not taking into consideration the nuances of the region's geopolitical situation. Regardless of how proud Armenians are of their national heritage and fighting spirit, Armenians must realize that Armenia is not a major force on earth today and in an increasingly hostile world Armenia needs big friends. Thus, the inevitability and necessity of Armenia's alliance with Russia. As I said, there should be no limits to a true friendship. As such, I hope to see Russo-Armenian relations realizing their full potential. Nevertheless, I realize that with or without Russia, living in the Caucasus has its inherent risks.


Armenians should try picturing the political climate of the Caucasus without a strong Russian presence... If that thought does not scare the shit out of us Armenians I don't know what will.

Arevordi

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Dear reader,

Arevordi will be taking a sabbatical to tend to personal matters. New blog commentaries will henceforth be posted on an irregular basis. The comments board however will continue to be moderated on a regular basis.

The last 20 years or so has also helped me see Russia as the last front against scourges of Westernization, Globalism, American expansionism, Zionism, Islamic extremism and pan-Turkism. I have also come to see Russia as the last hope humanity has for the preservation of classical western civilization, Apostolic Christianity and the traditional nation-state. This compelled me to create this blog in 2010. Immediately, this blog became one of the very few voices in the vastness of cyberia that dared to preach about the dangers of Globalism and the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance, and the only voice preaching the strategic importance of Armenia remaining within Russia's orbit. From about 2010 to 2015 I did monthly, at times weekly, commentaries about Russian-Armenian relations and Eurasian geopolitics in general. It was very difficult for me because I had no assistance from anywhere. The time I put into this blog therefore came at the expense of work and family. But a powerful feeling inside urged me to keep going; and I did. When Armenia joined the EEU and integrated into Russia's military structures a couple of years ago I finally felt a deep sense of relaxation, as if a very heavy burden was lifted off my back. And when Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan reemerged in Armenian politics, I finally felt that my personal mission was accomplished. I therefore felt I could take a step back as I really needed the rest.

Simply put: I have lived to see the institutionalization of Russian-Armenian alliance. Also, I feel more confident now that Armenians are collectively recognizing the strategic importance of Armenia's ties with Russia. Moreover, I feel satisfied knowing that, at least on a subatomic level, I had a hand in the outcome. As a result, I feel a strong sense of mission accomplished. I therefore no longer have the internal urge to continue as in the past. In other words, the motivational force that had propelled me in previous years has been gradually dissipating because I feel that this blog has lived to see the realization of its stated goal.

Going forward, I do not want to write merely for the sake of writing. Also, I do not want to say anything if I have nothing important to say. I feel like I have said everything I needed to say. Henceforth, I will post seasonal commentaries about topics I find important. I will however moderate the blog's comments section on a regular basis; ultimately because I'm interested in what readers of this blog have to say and also because it's through readers here that I am at times made aware of interesting developments. To limit clutter in the comments section, I kindly ask all participants of this blog to please keep comments coherent and strictly relevant to the featured topic of discussion. Moreover, please realize that when there are several anonymous visitors posting comments simultaneously, it becomes very confusing (not to mention extremely annoying) trying to figure out who is who and who said what. If you are here to engage in conversation, make an observation, express an idea or just attack me, I ask you to at least use a moniker to identify yourself.

Please appreciate the fact that I have put an enormous amount of information into this blog. In my opinion, most of my blog commentaries and articles, going back ten-plus years, are in varying degrees relevant to this day and will remain so for a long time to come. Posts in this blog can therefore be revisited by longtime readers and new comers alike. I therefore ask the reader to treat this blog as a depository of important information relating to Eurasian geopolitics. Russian-Armenian relations and humanity's historic fight against Globalism and Westernization.

Thank you for reading.