A Russian conscript stationed at the Russian 102nd military base on the outskirts of Gyumri, Armenia went AWOL from his base during the early morning hours of January 12 and massacred an entire Armenian family in the city. Being that Armenians are very family oriented, a major backlash was expected. Spontaneous demonstrations have taken place. Armenians around the world are outraged and they are demanding answers from Russian and Armenian officials. And being that we are talking about Armenia, it was also expected that the country's Western-led political opposition would not waste any time in exploiting the tragedy that took place in the city of Gyumri. As soon as word of the killings spread, Western-funded vultures were out in force. With the Gyumri tragedy and the recent deaths of Armenian servicemen on the border with Azerbaijan, 2015 has had a terrible start in Armenia.
I'd like to, however, remind all Armenians that geopolitics (i.e. the very harsh realities of maintaining a nation-state in a Turkic/Islamic infested cesspool like the south Caucasus) trumps the people's emotions regardless of the circumstances or the severity of the incident. At the end of the day, the reality of the matter is that Russia’s 102nd base is the MOST IMPORTANT military factor in Armenia today. The base essentially acts as a tripwire against an invasion from Turkey. By securing Armenia’s western borders against Turkey's massive military, the base also allows Armenia's small military to concentrate its limited resources against a more manageable enemy, Azerbaijan. I would go as far as saying Armenia lives today because of the 102nd base. Politicizing this horrible tragedy is therefore not in Armenia’s national interests for it serves to drive a wedge between Moscow and Yerevan. Driving a wedge between Moscow and Yerevan is something Turks, Azeris, Georgians, Wahhabi Islamists and Western oil interests have long sought; Armenians have no choice but to be politically mature enough not allow this to happen. Russians are also shocked at what has taken place in their military. Yes, we Armenians want answers and accountability from Moscow but Western mercenaries in Armenia are exasperating the situation by burning Russian flags and demanding that the 102nd base gets shut down.
Anyone calling for the closure of the Russian base is a traitor to Armenia and must be dealt with as if a foreign combatant. Anyone that is agitating against Armenia's alliance against Russia is a traitor to Armenia and must be dealt with accordingly.
We all know that generally speaking Armenians are reactionary, overly emotional and very family oriented. You want to seriously piss-off an Armenian and make him do irrational, self-destructive acts, mess with his family. You want to see an Armenian go insane and turn his dwelling upside-down, mess with his family. Whoever or whatever was behind the Gyumri massacre knew our people’s traits well. The assault in Gyumri was thus directed against the Armenian family. And this latest assault against Armenia came at a very delicate period in the country for it came at a time when: Western aggression in Novorossiya and Syria has brought the region to the precipice of a major international conflagration; Western financial sanctions against Russia has been having a very negative impact Armenia's small and fledgling economy; Western assets inside Armenia have been increasing their anti-government activities because Armenia officially entered the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union; Yerevan had been actively preparing to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide; renewed fighting on the Armenian border with Azerbaijan had risen tensions in Yerevan to new heights.
Internal and external pressure is being put on Armenia.
The Gyumri massacre was a direct assault on Armenia, and for shock value it was made to come via Russian hands, the hands that have been tasked with protecting the country for regional predators. In my opinion, the Gyumri massacre had the potential to bring Armenia to the very tipping point. The incident had the potential to tip the scale against Yerevan and incite mass unrest throughout Armenia. The massacre in Gyumri was also a situation where Armenia's geopolitical predicaments and the Armenian people's traits were exploited and used against Armenia. Consequently, all of Washington’s street whores throughout Armenian society are enthusiastically exploiting this horrible tragedy and using it toward self-serving political ends. Now, Turks and Azeris are impatiently watching from the sidelines to see just how suicidal and self-destructive Armenians will get once more.
I ultimately blame Yerevan’s “complimentary politics” for all this volatility. Yerevan's appeasement toward Western powers has allowed Armenia to become utterly saturated by Western-led mercenaries during the past twenty years. Yerevan's appeasement toward Western powers has enabled Western trained Armenians to penetrate the Armenian government. Yerevan has given Western interests a free hand in the country. Moreover, whatever flaws that may exist in Russian-Armenians relations today is due to the lack of Armenian lobbying efforts in the Kremlin and because of Yerevan's complimentary politics (i.e. pandering to Western powers). Armenia today is being torn between two superpowers as a result. While Moscow has managed to keep a tight control over leading heads in Armenia, Western powers have come to control the rest of the Armenian body. It has gotten to a dangerous point now where the head and the body no longer recognize each other. Consequently, predictably and alarmingly, we are now also seeing a growing trend of Russophobia in Armenia, especially amongst the impressionable young in the country. With Russia busy trying to thwart NATO's advances in Europe, Western powers have been freely sowing their seeds of destruction throughout Armenian society. If these seeds are not destroyed now, they will eventually bare bad fruit. Russians have been warning Armenians about this situation for some years now. Armenia's enemies are also beginning to take note -
One does not need to be a rocket scientist to realize that if Russophobia ever goes mainstream inside Armenian society, Armenia will cease to exist as a nation-state in the south Caucasus... or simply become subservient to Turkey. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to realize that Armenia cannot survive in the south Caucasus without active support and protection from Moscow. The following is a geopolitical nuance that seems to escape many Armenians today: The only nation on earth that has a strategic interest in Armenia's existence as a nation-state in the south Caucasus is the Russian nation, because without an allied Armenia in the south Caucasus Russia would face losing all of the Caucasus, and perhaps Central Asia as well. The main point here being: Many nations can be on friendly terms with Armenia, but none of them, except for Russia, would be adversely impacted if Armenia ceased to exist as a state one day. Only Russia stands to lose if Armenia disappears. This factor makes Russia a natural ally for Armenia. For us Armenians there are simply no alternatives to Russia. Alarmingly, however, many Armenians are failing to see this and official Yerevan is not merely doing enough to further deepen and/or develop Armenia's strategic relationship with the Russian Bear.
From an esoteric perspective, what is happening in Armenia today may in fact be a replaying of the geopolitical tug-of-war that existed between ancient Persia (who in my opinion is the spiritual predecessor to modern Russia) and Rome (the spiritual predecessor to the modern West) during the first few centuries of the Christian era. The pagan temple of Garni, Armenia, a Roman funded and styled building where Armenians prayed to Persian deities, is a vivid reminder to us today of the "complimentary politics" executed by Armenian leaders at the time. Very similar to the political climate in Armenia today, two thousand years ago Armenian leaders wearily walked a tightrope between imperial Rome and Persia. Eventually, there came a time when Armenian nobles, having had enough of the constant back-and-forth and political instability, deposed their king and asked Persia to come in once again and take control of Armenia. I hope it does not come to that this time around, but if it does, then so be it. Russia is for Armenia today what Persia was for Armenia back in antiquity. As it was also back then with ancient Rome, we must recognize that the West is in Armenia's geographic region only temporarily. In fact, the modern West has even less interests in the region in question than ancient Rome did. Control over the Caucasus region is not crucially vital for the West. Therefore, when being in the Caucasus proves costly for the West, it will easily abandon the region. For Russia, however, the region in question is essentially an extension of its borders. It would therefore be in Armenia's long term benefit to place its already limited efforts and collective emphasis in fostering better relations with friendly political entities that we Armenians know have a vested interest in Armenia and will therefore remain in Armenia's region for the long term.
Despite what our EUrotic idiots, Captain Americas, պատրոնդաշ կապած չոբաններ and Քաջ Նազարներ want us to believe, Armenia exists today not because of two million impoverished Armenians in Armenia - no less than half of whom have their luggages packed and ready to flee - and certainly not because of the big talking, under performing and utterly assimilated Armenian Diaspora. Armenia's exists today because of its strategic alliance with a superpower like Russia. Turks and Azeris have remained on their side of the borders for the past twenty years because of their fear of the Russian Bear. That there are even questions about Russia's military presence in Armenia speaks volumes about Armenian irrationality, political illiteracy and self-destructive behavior. And the irony of all ironies is that every single one of the anti-Russian activists we have been seeing recently beating their chests in public would be the first to flee to Russia (or America) as soon as the first Turkish army division crossed the Arax River.
Something went terribly wrong on January 12
Although Armenia's has an army of Western mercenaries who's sole task in the country has been to sour Russian-Armenian relations, the survival instinct present in most native Armenians have helped them understand and appreciate the strategic value of the 102nd base. There has therefore always been a lot of good interaction between Russian soldiers stationed at the base (a significant portion of whom incidentally are Armenian contract soldiers serving under the Russian Federation) and Armenian civilians in Gyumri. Relations between Russian soldiers and Armenian civilians have generally been very warm. Even after two drunk Russian soldiers randomly open fire on civilians about fifteen years ago killing two men, base personnel continued to enjoy very warm ties with Gyumri residents. Interaction between military personnel stationed at the base and surrounding civilians is a positive thing; it's actually excellent PR for both sides. Yes, strict security measures have to be in place at the base as in all military bases, but the last thing we want to do is to alienate soldiers from the people that surround them. The last thing we Armenians want to do is isolate foreign soldiers stationed in Armenia from the very people they may be called upon to fight for in a time of war. The 102nd base has had a very positive impact on Armenia and Gyumri for the past twenty years.
But something went terribly wrong on January 12. During the early morning hours of that day, a 19 year old Russian conscript named Valery Permyakov is said to have gone AWOL from the 102nd base where he was stationed and walked several kilometers to a random house where he proceeded to murdered all 7 members of the Avetisyan family, including a two years old child and a six month old infant who succumbed to his injuries several days after the incident. According to reports put out by Russian and Armenian authorities, after the murders Permyakov left his weapon and personal items at the scene of the crime and fled. Permyakov was caught later in the same day near the Armenian-Turkish border. It was reported that he had wanted to escape to Turkey.
Soon after the initial shock of the terrible massacre had dissipated, questions began to rise: Was Permyakov mentally ill? How did he leave his base with his AK-74 assault rifle without being detected? Why did he walk several kilometers, in the bitter Gyumri cold, to massacre the Avetisyan family? Why did he then leave incriminating evidence behind? Why was he trying to flee to Turkey? Was Permayakov really alone? Was this barbaric act ordered from abroad? Although Permyakov has reportedly confessed to the murders, Armenian and Russian officials insist that he has not yet provided them with a reason for the heinous act. For many people, including myself, the massacre in Gyumri seems very suspicious. Therefore, nothing should be ruled out and everything should be investigated.
Was Permyakov under the influence of mind altering drugs?
Mind altering psychedelic drugs have become weaponized in recent years. Such drugs can make individuals carryout assassinations, cold blooded murders or commit suicide. We have seen drug related atrocities carried out by US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact, there is an epidemic of suicides and mass killings taking place in the US in recent years. Most of these have been carried out by people on psychedelic medications. Mainstream news media outlets in the US do their best keep a lid on this kind of information. There are several very high profile examples of drugged assassins: Robert Bales (who carried out the massacre of civilians in Kandahar); Sirhan Sirhan (who assassinated Robert Kennedy); and Mark Chapman (who assassinated John Lennon). All three exhibited signs of being under the influence of medications upon their arrest. All three did not attempt to escape. All three had poor recollection of what they had done. I have always wondered how many of the mass killings that take place in the US are actually covert government experiments. I also suspect many of the jihadis that go on killing rampages periodically are also under the influence of some for of mind altering medication. This is not sci-fi. Psychedelic drugs have been worked on by psychiatrists and biochemists for many decades. The Nazis worked on them. The Soviet Union worked on them. Naturally, the successors of both the Nazis and the Soviet Union - the Anglo-American-Jewish political order - has been working on mind altering drugs for a long time. Science is at a point where anything is possible these days. The only question is: How far has science gone? Yes, this is all speculation but nothing should be ruled out because this unusually vicious crime in Gyumri comes at a very sensitive time in Armenia.
Was Permyakov really alone?
On one of the coldest days of the year (Eurasianet quoted an Armenian source which reported the temperature at the time in Gyumri to be 17 to 20 degrees Celsius below zero) Permyakov walks several kilometers to the Avetisyan's dwelling and murders at least five of the seven family members present with an AK-74 assault rifle, yet not one of the Avetisyan's neighbors hear a gun shot? How were all family members murdered in their beds? Didn't the noise from the first gun shot wake up the rest? Why would a murderer then leave the weapons with which he carried out the murders as well as other incriminating evidence at the scene of the crime before leaving? How would Permyakov then proceeds to walk, still undetected, many kilometers to the Armenian-Turkish border? Somethings just don't add up. Did another assailant assist Permyakov? Was Permyakov driven to the Avetisyan house? Was a silencer used in the murders? Was Permyakov's belonging left at the crime scene to implicate the 102nd base? Was Permyakov then driven to the Armenian-Turkish border?
I'd like to, however, remind all Armenians that geopolitics (i.e. the very harsh realities of maintaining a nation-state in a Turkic/Islamic infested cesspool like the south Caucasus) trumps the people's emotions regardless of the circumstances or the severity of the incident. At the end of the day, the reality of the matter is that Russia’s 102nd base is the MOST IMPORTANT military factor in Armenia today. The base essentially acts as a tripwire against an invasion from Turkey. By securing Armenia’s western borders against Turkey's massive military, the base also allows Armenia's small military to concentrate its limited resources against a more manageable enemy, Azerbaijan. I would go as far as saying Armenia lives today because of the 102nd base. Politicizing this horrible tragedy is therefore not in Armenia’s national interests for it serves to drive a wedge between Moscow and Yerevan. Driving a wedge between Moscow and Yerevan is something Turks, Azeris, Georgians, Wahhabi Islamists and Western oil interests have long sought; Armenians have no choice but to be politically mature enough not allow this to happen. Russians are also shocked at what has taken place in their military. Yes, we Armenians want answers and accountability from Moscow but Western mercenaries in Armenia are exasperating the situation by burning Russian flags and demanding that the 102nd base gets shut down.
Anyone calling for the closure of the Russian base is a traitor to Armenia and must be dealt with as if a foreign combatant. Anyone that is agitating against Armenia's alliance against Russia is a traitor to Armenia and must be dealt with accordingly.
We all know that generally speaking Armenians are reactionary, overly emotional and very family oriented. You want to seriously piss-off an Armenian and make him do irrational, self-destructive acts, mess with his family. You want to see an Armenian go insane and turn his dwelling upside-down, mess with his family. Whoever or whatever was behind the Gyumri massacre knew our people’s traits well. The assault in Gyumri was thus directed against the Armenian family. And this latest assault against Armenia came at a very delicate period in the country for it came at a time when: Western aggression in Novorossiya and Syria has brought the region to the precipice of a major international conflagration; Western financial sanctions against Russia has been having a very negative impact Armenia's small and fledgling economy; Western assets inside Armenia have been increasing their anti-government activities because Armenia officially entered the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union; Yerevan had been actively preparing to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide; renewed fighting on the Armenian border with Azerbaijan had risen tensions in Yerevan to new heights.
Internal and external pressure is being put on Armenia.
The Gyumri massacre was a direct assault on Armenia, and for shock value it was made to come via Russian hands, the hands that have been tasked with protecting the country for regional predators. In my opinion, the Gyumri massacre had the potential to bring Armenia to the very tipping point. The incident had the potential to tip the scale against Yerevan and incite mass unrest throughout Armenia. The massacre in Gyumri was also a situation where Armenia's geopolitical predicaments and the Armenian people's traits were exploited and used against Armenia. Consequently, all of Washington’s street whores throughout Armenian society are enthusiastically exploiting this horrible tragedy and using it toward self-serving political ends. Now, Turks and Azeris are impatiently watching from the sidelines to see just how suicidal and self-destructive Armenians will get once more.
I ultimately blame Yerevan’s “complimentary politics” for all this volatility. Yerevan's appeasement toward Western powers has allowed Armenia to become utterly saturated by Western-led mercenaries during the past twenty years. Yerevan's appeasement toward Western powers has enabled Western trained Armenians to penetrate the Armenian government. Yerevan has given Western interests a free hand in the country. Moreover, whatever flaws that may exist in Russian-Armenians relations today is due to the lack of Armenian lobbying efforts in the Kremlin and because of Yerevan's complimentary politics (i.e. pandering to Western powers). Armenia today is being torn between two superpowers as a result. While Moscow has managed to keep a tight control over leading heads in Armenia, Western powers have come to control the rest of the Armenian body. It has gotten to a dangerous point now where the head and the body no longer recognize each other. Consequently, predictably and alarmingly, we are now also seeing a growing trend of Russophobia in Armenia, especially amongst the impressionable young in the country. With Russia busy trying to thwart NATO's advances in Europe, Western powers have been freely sowing their seeds of destruction throughout Armenian society. If these seeds are not destroyed now, they will eventually bare bad fruit. Russians have been warning Armenians about this situation for some years now. Armenia's enemies are also beginning to take note -
Russian expert detects anti-Russian provocations in Armenia: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/66039.html
From an esoteric perspective, what is happening in Armenia today may in fact be a replaying of the geopolitical tug-of-war that existed between ancient Persia (who in my opinion is the spiritual predecessor to modern Russia) and Rome (the spiritual predecessor to the modern West) during the first few centuries of the Christian era. The pagan temple of Garni, Armenia, a Roman funded and styled building where Armenians prayed to Persian deities, is a vivid reminder to us today of the "complimentary politics" executed by Armenian leaders at the time. Very similar to the political climate in Armenia today, two thousand years ago Armenian leaders wearily walked a tightrope between imperial Rome and Persia. Eventually, there came a time when Armenian nobles, having had enough of the constant back-and-forth and political instability, deposed their king and asked Persia to come in once again and take control of Armenia. I hope it does not come to that this time around, but if it does, then so be it. Russia is for Armenia today what Persia was for Armenia back in antiquity. As it was also back then with ancient Rome, we must recognize that the West is in Armenia's geographic region only temporarily. In fact, the modern West has even less interests in the region in question than ancient Rome did. Control over the Caucasus region is not crucially vital for the West. Therefore, when being in the Caucasus proves costly for the West, it will easily abandon the region. For Russia, however, the region in question is essentially an extension of its borders. It would therefore be in Armenia's long term benefit to place its already limited efforts and collective emphasis in fostering better relations with friendly political entities that we Armenians know have a vested interest in Armenia and will therefore remain in Armenia's region for the long term.
Despite what our EUrotic idiots, Captain Americas, պատրոնդաշ կապած չոբաններ and Քաջ Նազարներ want us to believe, Armenia exists today not because of two million impoverished Armenians in Armenia - no less than half of whom have their luggages packed and ready to flee - and certainly not because of the big talking, under performing and utterly assimilated Armenian Diaspora. Armenia's exists today because of its strategic alliance with a superpower like Russia. Turks and Azeris have remained on their side of the borders for the past twenty years because of their fear of the Russian Bear. That there are even questions about Russia's military presence in Armenia speaks volumes about Armenian irrationality, political illiteracy and self-destructive behavior. And the irony of all ironies is that every single one of the anti-Russian activists we have been seeing recently beating their chests in public would be the first to flee to Russia (or America) as soon as the first Turkish army division crossed the Arax River.
Something went terribly wrong on January 12
Although Armenia's has an army of Western mercenaries who's sole task in the country has been to sour Russian-Armenian relations, the survival instinct present in most native Armenians have helped them understand and appreciate the strategic value of the 102nd base. There has therefore always been a lot of good interaction between Russian soldiers stationed at the base (a significant portion of whom incidentally are Armenian contract soldiers serving under the Russian Federation) and Armenian civilians in Gyumri. Relations between Russian soldiers and Armenian civilians have generally been very warm. Even after two drunk Russian soldiers randomly open fire on civilians about fifteen years ago killing two men, base personnel continued to enjoy very warm ties with Gyumri residents. Interaction between military personnel stationed at the base and surrounding civilians is a positive thing; it's actually excellent PR for both sides. Yes, strict security measures have to be in place at the base as in all military bases, but the last thing we want to do is to alienate soldiers from the people that surround them. The last thing we Armenians want to do is isolate foreign soldiers stationed in Armenia from the very people they may be called upon to fight for in a time of war. The 102nd base has had a very positive impact on Armenia and Gyumri for the past twenty years.
But something went terribly wrong on January 12. During the early morning hours of that day, a 19 year old Russian conscript named Valery Permyakov is said to have gone AWOL from the 102nd base where he was stationed and walked several kilometers to a random house where he proceeded to murdered all 7 members of the Avetisyan family, including a two years old child and a six month old infant who succumbed to his injuries several days after the incident. According to reports put out by Russian and Armenian authorities, after the murders Permyakov left his weapon and personal items at the scene of the crime and fled. Permyakov was caught later in the same day near the Armenian-Turkish border. It was reported that he had wanted to escape to Turkey.
Soon after the initial shock of the terrible massacre had dissipated, questions began to rise: Was Permyakov mentally ill? How did he leave his base with his AK-74 assault rifle without being detected? Why did he walk several kilometers, in the bitter Gyumri cold, to massacre the Avetisyan family? Why did he then leave incriminating evidence behind? Why was he trying to flee to Turkey? Was Permayakov really alone? Was this barbaric act ordered from abroad? Although Permyakov has reportedly confessed to the murders, Armenian and Russian officials insist that he has not yet provided them with a reason for the heinous act. For many people, including myself, the massacre in Gyumri seems very suspicious. Therefore, nothing should be ruled out and everything should be investigated.
Was Permyakov under the influence of mind altering drugs?
Mind altering psychedelic drugs have become weaponized in recent years. Such drugs can make individuals carryout assassinations, cold blooded murders or commit suicide. We have seen drug related atrocities carried out by US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact, there is an epidemic of suicides and mass killings taking place in the US in recent years. Most of these have been carried out by people on psychedelic medications. Mainstream news media outlets in the US do their best keep a lid on this kind of information. There are several very high profile examples of drugged assassins: Robert Bales (who carried out the massacre of civilians in Kandahar); Sirhan Sirhan (who assassinated Robert Kennedy); and Mark Chapman (who assassinated John Lennon). All three exhibited signs of being under the influence of medications upon their arrest. All three did not attempt to escape. All three had poor recollection of what they had done. I have always wondered how many of the mass killings that take place in the US are actually covert government experiments. I also suspect many of the jihadis that go on killing rampages periodically are also under the influence of some for of mind altering medication. This is not sci-fi. Psychedelic drugs have been worked on by psychiatrists and biochemists for many decades. The Nazis worked on them. The Soviet Union worked on them. Naturally, the successors of both the Nazis and the Soviet Union - the Anglo-American-Jewish political order - has been working on mind altering drugs for a long time. Science is at a point where anything is possible these days. The only question is: How far has science gone? Yes, this is all speculation but nothing should be ruled out because this unusually vicious crime in Gyumri comes at a very sensitive time in Armenia.
Was Permyakov really alone?
On one of the coldest days of the year (Eurasianet quoted an Armenian source which reported the temperature at the time in Gyumri to be 17 to 20 degrees Celsius below zero) Permyakov walks several kilometers to the Avetisyan's dwelling and murders at least five of the seven family members present with an AK-74 assault rifle, yet not one of the Avetisyan's neighbors hear a gun shot? How were all family members murdered in their beds? Didn't the noise from the first gun shot wake up the rest? Why would a murderer then leave the weapons with which he carried out the murders as well as other incriminating evidence at the scene of the crime before leaving? How would Permyakov then proceeds to walk, still undetected, many kilometers to the Armenian-Turkish border? Somethings just don't add up. Did another assailant assist Permyakov? Was Permyakov driven to the Avetisyan house? Was a silencer used in the murders? Was Permyakov's belonging left at the crime scene to implicate the 102nd base? Was Permyakov then driven to the Armenian-Turkish border?
Could it be a gangland hit?
Did Permyakov, or any one of this family members know the Avetisyan family? Were the murders a contract killing ordered by a Russian crime syndicate? Did someone in Permyakov's extended family have a vendetta against a member of the Avetisyan family? In others words, was the Gyumri massacre a random act carried out by a lunatic, a revenge killing, a mafia hit or an attempt to incite political unrest in Armenia? If what happened was not a random act, a revenge killing or a mafia hit, then who or what could have wanted such a thing to happen?
Who benefits from such an act?
The Gyumri massacre came at a time of heighten tensions throughout the region. From Novorossia to Syria to Artsakh, dark forces are pushing nations towards a major global conflagration. The subjugation of Russia and Iran seem to be their main geostrategic objective. Was the incident in Gyumri therefore meant to be the spark that would set off widespread sociopolitical unrest inside Armenia? The massacre came at a time when Armenia had just entered the Eurasian Union. Was the Gyumri massacre Armenia's punishment for joining the Russian-led economic pact? Moreover, soon Armenia will be commemorating the very important 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. This begs the question: Was the Gyumri massacre meant to divert Armenian attention away from commemoration events? If what happened in Gyumri on January 12 was a political act, Turkish and Western interests (along with their political acolytes inside Armenian society) are the only beneficiaries.
The military significance of the 102nd base
The gradual collapse of communism in Moscow in the late 1980s set off several geopolitical fires in Soviet territory. The Armenian war of liberation in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) was one of them. With the Soviet Union on its death throes, Armenia found itself once more in a fight for its life against a larger and wealthier Turkic neighbor over an Armenian populated territory. Prior to the official collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Soviet forces were seen aiding Azeris against Armenians. By 1992, when the Soviet Union officially came to an end, the geopolitical calculus in the Kremlin had fundamentally changed. The Kremlin was no longer trying to keep the Soviet Union together. The collapse of the Soviet Union coincided with an Islamic/Turkic insurgency throughout the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as a push eastward into former Soviet territory by Western powers. A stark new geopolitical reality had come into existence for the Kremlin by early 11992. The momentum in Artsakh, which was on the side of Azerbaijan until then, quite drastically began to change. By June 1992 newly independent Armenia had registered two major victories in Artsakh: Armenian forces had chased Azeri troops out of the strategic village of Khojaly and had gone on to liberate the very strategic and culturally significant ancient Armenian city of Shushi. It soon became apparent that the newly created Russian Federation had begun supplying Armenians with large quantities of weapons, ammunition and military expertise. This was also around the time when a number of Soviet military veterans of Armenian decent began descending on Armenia to bolster Artsakh's defenses. Armenia's astounding successes on the battlefield against Azerbaijan in 1992 and in 1993 profoundly alarmed Ankara. While Turks had already been helping their ethnic cousins in Azerbaijan from the early phases of the war in Artsakh, Ankara began seeking a more direct involvement due to Armenian advances. On several occasions between 1992 and 1993 Ankara mobilized large military contingents near its border with Armenia. Ankara's posturing was clear: The Turkish military wanted to draw Armenian forces away from Artsakh to take pressure off Baku during times when Azeri forces were suffering defeats and were in retreat. This attempt by Ankara to open a second front for Armenia triggered a strong Russian response. Marshal Shaposhnikov, then Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Armed Forces of the CIS threatened Ankara with a world war if it dared to send Turkish forces into Armenia. The Turkish military, needless to say, was forced to stand down. With it's western border thus secured, Armenians continued to concentrate their war effort against Azerbaijan. By the time the Russian brokered ceasefire came into effect in 1994, Armenia had managed to liberate most of Artsakh, including the strategic regions of Karvachar and Berdzor. The following is an excerpt from a 1996 analysis by Dmitri Trenin -
More specifically, The 102nd base officially came into existence through the efforts of a farsighted Russian-Armenian general who had initially gone to Armenia from Russia to help Armenians liberate Artsakh. The base was specifically tasked with not only protecting Russian interests in Armenia but also Armenian interests against Turkey and Azerbaijan. Today, Russia's 102nd base is arguably the single most important military factor in Armenia. The base essentially acts as a tripwire against an invasion from Turkey and NATO. Moreover, by securing Armenia's western borders against Turkey, the base allows Armenia's small and overstretched military to concentrate its limited resources against a more manageable enemy, Azerbaijan. Moreover, starting in 2008/2009 Armenia's military began experiencing a drastic reduction in meeting its yearly conscript quotas. Due to population flight, increased death rate, low births rate and wide-spread military draft avoidance starting in the early 1990s, as of 2010 very low numbers of Armenian men were being recruited into the Armenian armed forces. This alarming situation was behind the reason why Russian-Armenian military officials decided to increase the size of Russia's military presence inside Armenia. In other words, with Armenian men no where in sight, Russian men were being brought into Armenia to supplement Armenia's defenses. The above is the base's great significance but unfortunately it is also something many Armenians today are failing to understand.
Armenians would do well to put aside their empty bravado and come to the sobering realization that Armenia exists today due to Yerevan's close ties to Russia. It's high time for the Armenian house cat to stop seeing a wild lion when looking in the mirror. Armenia lives as a nation-state in the south Caucasus today because of its close ties to the Russian Bear. And the 102nd base is the symbol of the strategic alliance that exists between Russia and Armenia. The 102nd base is also the symbol of Armenia's military deterrence against Turkey's military, one of the world's largest and most aggressive. In the big geopolitical picture of the south Caucasus, Armenia exists today because of the 102nd. Armenia has not suffered the fate of Cyprus, Serbia, Georgia, Syria or the Ukraine because of the 102nd base. Armenia is untouchable by regional predators today because of Russian boots on the ground in Armenia. Unfortunately, however, due to twenty years of Western propaganda, a growing number of Armenians today are either too proud to admit or too politically illiterate to realize the immense value of the 102nd base and the necessity of Russia's military presence in Armenia. Armenians must understand that getting rid of the Russian military presence in Armenia is precisely what Turkish and Anglo-American-Jewish interests are after. The agenda seeks to expel Russia from the Caucasus and make Armenia defenseless. I'd like to once more remind the reader of the following -
Did Permyakov, or any one of this family members know the Avetisyan family? Were the murders a contract killing ordered by a Russian crime syndicate? Did someone in Permyakov's extended family have a vendetta against a member of the Avetisyan family? In others words, was the Gyumri massacre a random act carried out by a lunatic, a revenge killing, a mafia hit or an attempt to incite political unrest in Armenia? If what happened was not a random act, a revenge killing or a mafia hit, then who or what could have wanted such a thing to happen?
Who benefits from such an act?
The Gyumri massacre came at a time of heighten tensions throughout the region. From Novorossia to Syria to Artsakh, dark forces are pushing nations towards a major global conflagration. The subjugation of Russia and Iran seem to be their main geostrategic objective. Was the incident in Gyumri therefore meant to be the spark that would set off widespread sociopolitical unrest inside Armenia? The massacre came at a time when Armenia had just entered the Eurasian Union. Was the Gyumri massacre Armenia's punishment for joining the Russian-led economic pact? Moreover, soon Armenia will be commemorating the very important 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. This begs the question: Was the Gyumri massacre meant to divert Armenian attention away from commemoration events? If what happened in Gyumri on January 12 was a political act, Turkish and Western interests (along with their political acolytes inside Armenian society) are the only beneficiaries.
The military significance of the 102nd base
The gradual collapse of communism in Moscow in the late 1980s set off several geopolitical fires in Soviet territory. The Armenian war of liberation in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) was one of them. With the Soviet Union on its death throes, Armenia found itself once more in a fight for its life against a larger and wealthier Turkic neighbor over an Armenian populated territory. Prior to the official collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Soviet forces were seen aiding Azeris against Armenians. By 1992, when the Soviet Union officially came to an end, the geopolitical calculus in the Kremlin had fundamentally changed. The Kremlin was no longer trying to keep the Soviet Union together. The collapse of the Soviet Union coincided with an Islamic/Turkic insurgency throughout the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as a push eastward into former Soviet territory by Western powers. A stark new geopolitical reality had come into existence for the Kremlin by early 11992. The momentum in Artsakh, which was on the side of Azerbaijan until then, quite drastically began to change. By June 1992 newly independent Armenia had registered two major victories in Artsakh: Armenian forces had chased Azeri troops out of the strategic village of Khojaly and had gone on to liberate the very strategic and culturally significant ancient Armenian city of Shushi. It soon became apparent that the newly created Russian Federation had begun supplying Armenians with large quantities of weapons, ammunition and military expertise. This was also around the time when a number of Soviet military veterans of Armenian decent began descending on Armenia to bolster Artsakh's defenses. Armenia's astounding successes on the battlefield against Azerbaijan in 1992 and in 1993 profoundly alarmed Ankara. While Turks had already been helping their ethnic cousins in Azerbaijan from the early phases of the war in Artsakh, Ankara began seeking a more direct involvement due to Armenian advances. On several occasions between 1992 and 1993 Ankara mobilized large military contingents near its border with Armenia. Ankara's posturing was clear: The Turkish military wanted to draw Armenian forces away from Artsakh to take pressure off Baku during times when Azeri forces were suffering defeats and were in retreat. This attempt by Ankara to open a second front for Armenia triggered a strong Russian response. Marshal Shaposhnikov, then Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Armed Forces of the CIS threatened Ankara with a world war if it dared to send Turkish forces into Armenia. The Turkish military, needless to say, was forced to stand down. With it's western border thus secured, Armenians continued to concentrate their war effort against Azerbaijan. By the time the Russian brokered ceasefire came into effect in 1994, Armenia had managed to liberate most of Artsakh, including the strategic regions of Karvachar and Berdzor. The following is an excerpt from a 1996 analysis by Dmitri Trenin -
The purely military interest which Russia has had in the Caucasus appears to have receded in importance in comparison with the Imperial or Soviet periods. It is now essentially defensive in nature and precludes any large-scale strategic penetration, including the supply of military assistance, arms supplies, etc., to any third party. To prevent any potential Turkish opportunism at the time of the Soviet Union's disintegration, Marshal Shaposhnikov, then Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Armed Forces of the CIS, warned of a "Third World War" if Turkey were to interfere militarily in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In March 1993, General Grachev, Russia's Defence Minister, made Russia's own military co-operation with Turkey conditional on Ankara's discontinuing its military assistance to Baku.”When NATO's second largest military began mobilizing military assets on the Armenian border to intervene on behalf of Azerbaijan during 1992 and 1993, Moscow threatened Turkey with a world war. Yes, Russians threatened Turks with a world war over a little Armenia that was no longer under Moscow's control. Russia was ready to risk everything for our little homeland in the south Caucasus even when Russia itself was in chaos and was in fact in real danger of falling apart. Soon after the Soviet Union's collapse, Kremlin officials begun seeing Armenia as a strategic Russian stronghold in a highly volatile region threatened by Western oil interests, Wahhabi Islamists, pan-Turkists and Iranian interests. Soon after the Soviet Union's collapse, Armenian officials likewise began realizing that Armenia desperately required Russian protection in a region saturated by Western oil interests, Wahhabi Islamists, pan-Turkists and Iranian interests. A convergence of interests was realized between Moscow and Yerevan and a historic alliance between to brotherly nations recommenced. This is the more-or-less the backdrop within which Russia's 102nd base came into existence in Armenia.
More specifically, The 102nd base officially came into existence through the efforts of a farsighted Russian-Armenian general who had initially gone to Armenia from Russia to help Armenians liberate Artsakh. The base was specifically tasked with not only protecting Russian interests in Armenia but also Armenian interests against Turkey and Azerbaijan. Today, Russia's 102nd base is arguably the single most important military factor in Armenia. The base essentially acts as a tripwire against an invasion from Turkey and NATO. Moreover, by securing Armenia's western borders against Turkey, the base allows Armenia's small and overstretched military to concentrate its limited resources against a more manageable enemy, Azerbaijan. Moreover, starting in 2008/2009 Armenia's military began experiencing a drastic reduction in meeting its yearly conscript quotas. Due to population flight, increased death rate, low births rate and wide-spread military draft avoidance starting in the early 1990s, as of 2010 very low numbers of Armenian men were being recruited into the Armenian armed forces. This alarming situation was behind the reason why Russian-Armenian military officials decided to increase the size of Russia's military presence inside Armenia. In other words, with Armenian men no where in sight, Russian men were being brought into Armenia to supplement Armenia's defenses. The above is the base's great significance but unfortunately it is also something many Armenians today are failing to understand.
Armenians would do well to put aside their empty bravado and come to the sobering realization that Armenia exists today due to Yerevan's close ties to Russia. It's high time for the Armenian house cat to stop seeing a wild lion when looking in the mirror. Armenia lives as a nation-state in the south Caucasus today because of its close ties to the Russian Bear. And the 102nd base is the symbol of the strategic alliance that exists between Russia and Armenia. The 102nd base is also the symbol of Armenia's military deterrence against Turkey's military, one of the world's largest and most aggressive. In the big geopolitical picture of the south Caucasus, Armenia exists today because of the 102nd. Armenia has not suffered the fate of Cyprus, Serbia, Georgia, Syria or the Ukraine because of the 102nd base. Armenia is untouchable by regional predators today because of Russian boots on the ground in Armenia. Unfortunately, however, due to twenty years of Western propaganda, a growing number of Armenians today are either too proud to admit or too politically illiterate to realize the immense value of the 102nd base and the necessity of Russia's military presence in Armenia. Armenians must understand that getting rid of the Russian military presence in Armenia is precisely what Turkish and Anglo-American-Jewish interests are after. The agenda seeks to expel Russia from the Caucasus and make Armenia defenseless. I'd like to once more remind the reader of the following -
George Friedman: “Russian presence in Armenia is bad for Turkey”: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/arye-gut-israeli-jewish-expert-in.html
Turkish Advice: Armenian diaspora, focus on Russia rather than Turkey! http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/armenian-diaspora-focus-on-russia-rather-than-turkey
Russian General Leonid Ivashov: Turkey Seeks Separation Between Russia, Armenia: http://news.am/eng/news/36696.html
USA trying to break up Armenian-Russian military relations, general says: http://www.eurasianet.org/resource/a...0005/0040.html
I reiterate: Turks,
Azeris, Georgians, Wahhabi Islamists and Western oil
interests understand that the
102nd base is the single most significant
military factor in all of the south Caucasus. Remember my "Caucasian
table" analogy, where all regional players sit around a table and settle
disputes? Well, the 102nd base is the Russian participant of that table.
God forbid Armenia is ever made to sit at that table without the Russia participant. The last time something like that happened, we suffered a genocide. The 102nd base's powerful
symbolism was the reason why President Putin's 2013 state visit to Armenia commenced at the base. With its recent acquisition of modern weaponry
the base is the region's most capable military outpost. When looked at in conjunction
with the recently upgraded
Russian air force squadron based in Erebuni, the Russian military
presence in
Armenia becomes a formidable first line barrier against all regional antagonists.
The 102nd base in Armenia is thus a thorn in the eyes of Turks, Azeris, Wahhabi Islamists,
Western powers and Armenia's Western-led political opposition because the Russian military presence in Armenia is the only thing standing in the way of their
agenda - the total subjugation of the southern Caucasus and the unhindered
exploitation of Central Asian energy. Any Armenians
that can visualize an Armenian state in the south Caucasus without a
powerful Russian factor at play in Armenia is either stupid or an agent of the West. Those calling for the closure of the 102nd base are enemies of the Armenian state.
For
more insight on the strategic importance the 102nd base in Armenia
please see the following press interview by former military official
Vahan Shirkhanyan -
"Ռազմաբազան կոչված է անվտանգություն ապահովելու համար, լրացնել անվտանգության համակարգը: Այս մասին այսօր լրագրողների հետ հանդիպմանն ասաց ՊՆ նախկին փոխնախարար Վահան Շիրխանյանը՝ պատասխանելով լրագրողի հարցին, թե ինչ նշանակություն ունի ռազմաբազան երկրի համար: Խոսելով Գյումրիում 102-րդ ռազամաբազայի ստեղծումից՝ նա նշեց, որ ռուսական ռազմական բազան ստեղծվել է ավելի շուտ, քան գրանցվել է: «Ադրբեջանի հետ պատերազմին Թուրքիան ևս մասնակցում էր, և մենք պետք է ունենայինք մեր դաշնակցին, և մենք գնացինք ամենաճիշտ ճանապարհով, քանի որ Թուրքիան ուղղակի երեք անգամ որոշել էր Հայաստան մտնել»,-ավելացրեց նախկին փոխնախարարը: Նրա խոսքերով՝ ռուսական ռազմաբազան իր վրա դրած պարտավորությունները կատարում է: Վ. Շիրխանյանի դիտարկումները սահմանային իրավիճակների և ՀԱՊԿ-ի գործունեության մասին մանրամասն` տեսանյութում"Ռազամաբազան իր վրա դրած պարտավորությունները կատարում է. ՊՆ նախկին փոխնախարար: http://www.panorama.am/am/society/2015/01/24/v-shirkhanyan/
With
a few reservations, I also want to bring your attention to the thoughts of
a well known military veteran, radio commentator in Yerevan -
"Առանց 102 րդ ռազմաբազայի այսօր, ցավոք, հնարոր չէ. օդային հարվածներով թուրքերին կարճ ժամանակաշրջանում կհաջողվի գետնին հավասարեցնել ամեն ինչ: Եվ իհարկե, սա մեր ապաշնորհ քաղաքականության հետևանքն է: Սեփական հիմարությունից ու ալարկոտությունից է ռուսից նման կախվածություն առաջացել: Անգամ նորմալ զորակոչ չենք կարողանում ապահովել, իսկ հայկական ավիացիայի մասին խոսելն էլ ամոթ է: 102- րդ ռազմաբազայի և թուրքական դիվերսիաների մասին «Հետախույզի օրագիրը» հաղորդաշարի այս թողարկամ ընթացքում"
Հանե՞լ ռուսական բազան՝ սա հանցավոր մոտեցում է: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEL-dA3rWHE&x-yt-cl=84503534&x-yt-ts=1421914688#t=51
I should also add here that Armenia’s domestic problems have always been being blown out of proportions by an army of Western funded and led agencies and activists with their 24/7 coverage of every single bad thing that happens in Armenia. Uncle Sam's media blitz against Armenia is old and it is the fundamental cause of domestic tensions, hopelessness and mass hysteria in Armenia today. This mass hysteria fomented by Western powers and their lemmings in Armenian society worldwide, as well as our people’s gypsies-like tendencies to seek greener pastures when things are not to their liking, are the real reason why around 40% of Armenians want out of the country. In reality, "corruption" or "injustice" in Armenia is not nearly as bad as what exists in most other developing nations on earth today. But the perception that has been created by Armenia's Western activists is that Armenia is hell on earth. Moreover, expressions of unbridled hate towards Armenian law enforcement bodies, government officials, and Armenians of Artsakh is growing throughout Armenian social media. Alarmingly, destructive criticism, incessant complaining and the dissemination of poisonous news has become a form of sadomasochistic sport for Armenians: The more terrible the news, the more likely it is to travel far and wide throughout Armenian society. Amazingly, Armenians also revel in comparing Armenia with established, old powers such as France, Switzerland and of course the United States. Our idiots shout: "Why can't Armenia be like Switzerland!?" All this self-destructive nonsense is slowly destroying our national fabric and demoralizing our people.
Armenians must be soner enough to understand that the current ruling “regime” is the lesser of all evils in Armenia today. I say this reluctantly because I have no love for our chobans-in-Armani-suits, but I say this because those I see waiting on the political sidelines in Yerevan to take advantage of any instability or regime change in the country are those who directly and indirectly serve Western and Turkish interests. Regardless of whether they realize it or not, their main geostrategic task is to pull Armenia out of the Russian orbit. Therefore, no thanks. I’ll stick with my “oligarchs”. After all, the devil we know is safer bet than the angle we don't. In fact, had it not be to a handful of pro-Russian Armenian officials, primarily the "Karabakh clan", I have no doubt Armenia today would have been a cheep brothel servicing Turks, Azeris, Wahhabi Islamists and Western oil interests. Armenia actually came very near to being a playground for our enemies back in late 1990s, before the parliamentary assassinations on October 27, 1999 put a quick end to it. At the end of the day, what Armenia needs is a sociopolitical evolution, not a Western sponsored revolution.
We cannot allow tensions to escalate
Once more: Geopolitics trumps all other considerations. Regardless of who was behind the Gyumri massacre and why it happened, politicizing the tragedy now will only result in furthering our enemies' longstanding agenda inside Armenia. With that said, many Armenians believe that what happened in Gyumri on January 12 was indeed a deliberate provocation aimed against Russia. If so, we can use our common sense to figure out who the Gyumri massacre benefited the most. Frayed relations with Moscow is not in Yerevan's interest for that is exactly what Ankara, Baku, Tbilisi and Washington are seeking. Moreover, politicizing this tragedy and dwelling on its emotional aspects will make matters worst not only for the Armenian state but also for the two million-plus Armenians living/working in Russia. Let's recall that most families in Armenia live on remittances Armenian migrant workers send from Russia. We simply cannot afford allowing tensions to escalate into inter-ethnic hatred for a great number of reasons. Sadly, we already have some very troubling news from Russia in this regard -
Новое убийство в Минеральных Водах: http://riafan.ru/203956-zhiteli-minvod-vyishli-na-narodnyiy-shod-v-svyazi-s-ubiystvom-voennogo/Новое убийство в Минеральных Водах: http://rosndp.org/novoe-ubijstvo-v-mineraljnih-vodah.htm
A
group of drunken Armenians have killed a Russian soldier in southern
Russia. The reason? Ostensibly because of what happened in Gyumri. The
local Russian population is understandably fed up, not only because
of this particular murder but because many Armenians in southern Russia tend to be
unruly and disrespectful towards Russians and this isn't the
first time a Russian has been murdered by Armenians. I
am sure this matter will revive talk about Russian skinheads. The rise
of murderous racist groups in Russia during the 1990s was essentially a reflection of the chaos prevalent in post-Soviet Russia and a backlash against how non-Russians (peoples of the Caucasus and Central Asians
in particular) were behaving in the country at the time. Some racist groups in Russia were also being encouraged from abroad. Nonetheless, the racist epidemic in Russia was finally crushed
by Russian authorities in recent years. I have talked about Russia's skinheads in this blog in the past. I have also talked about Hrachya Harutunyan's case.
Nevertheless, fearing tit-for-tat reprisals and growing inter-ethnic hostility, Russian authorities have
done their best to downplay incidents that take place between Russians
and Armenians. This most recent murder of a Russian by Armenians have gotten very little air time in Russia.
Armenians murdering Russians, Russians murdering Armenians is just what Tatars, Turks and Azeris have been dreaming about. We are seeing how we Armenians can be Armenia's worst enemy. We are seeing some of Russia's internal problems. We are also seeing how easy it is to manipulate sheeple in any given nation and make them perform destructive acts.
Armenians murdering Russians, Russians murdering Armenians is just what Tatars, Turks and Azeris have been dreaming about. We are seeing how we Armenians can be Armenia's worst enemy. We are seeing some of Russia's internal problems. We are also seeing how easy it is to manipulate sheeple in any given nation and make them perform destructive acts.
Fearing the rise of an anti-Russian "maidan" in Armenia, some seemingly fringe elements in Russian society have been using social media to come to Valery Permyakov's aide -
АНТИМАЙДАН АРМЕНИЯ | ВАЛЕРИЙ ПЕРМЯКОВ: https://vk.com/antimaidan__zaria
Those behind the social networking site above have been claiming
that the
murder suspect was framed by
Armenia's Western-oriented government. They have been claiming the Gyumri
incident
was an anti-Russian operation conducted on Armenian soil for the sole
purpose of creating a "maidan" in Armenia. They think the
Russian soldier accused of the murders is innocent and thus a symbol of
an oppressed Russia.
They are also calling on the Russian government to invade Armenia in order to protect Russian soldiers and Russian speaking
peoples in the country if need be. If this website is genuine, it's basically a reflection of how aggressive and paranoid
Russia's ultra-right wing population can be and has become in recent
years. In the current state of the
political world, where Russians feel threatened, Russian nationalism
is bound to take on extreme characteristics. After all, the genetic core of Russians consists of Viking traits. Measures must be taken to lessen tensions and remedy overreactions in both nations. The
situation can get worst if law enforcement authorities in both nations
do not crack down on their crazies.
None of this is in Armenia's or Russia's interests. We are only making our enemies happy with all this.
Everything must be done to not further damage Armenian-Russian relations. Yes, Permyakov's actions have dealt Russian-Armenian relations a serious blow. But we must move on. We cannot dwell on the Gyumri tragedy. We have to deescalate tensions. What Armenians need to do is mourn the victims of the Gyumri massacre, especially the young ones, and demand from Armenian and Russian officials that they make an example out of the criminal/criminals involved. Armenians also need to demand this incident be thoroughly investigated and security regulations at the base thoroughly reviewed. Armenians must demand better screening of military personnel being brought into Armenia. Armenians must demand changes to be made where needed. Armenians must demand better accountability from Moscow because the 102nd base is also strategically important to Russia. For their part, Russian officials need to recognize that what happens in Gyumri is a terrible blow to Russian-Armenian relations and it comes at a very sensitive time in the region's political climate. Russian officials must understand that this incident has profoundly upset Armenians worldwide. Russian officials must also understand that the Armenian people's outrage is justified and that the people had no choice but to protest the murders. Something as horrible as this incident could not be taken lightly. When anger and emotions are the main driving force in any situation, objectivity disappears and demands and actions become irrational.
Russian officials must also realize that this incident will now be mercilessly exploited by pro-Western activists inside Armenia and used against Russian interests in the country - if they are seen as being indifferent to Armenian concerns. Therefore, going forward, Moscow's approach to resolving this matter must not make things worst. Russian officials must, as quickly as possible, condemn the murderer to life in prison or execute him, whichever is allowable by applicable law. I hope to see Moscow remedy this matter urgently ultimately for Armenia's sake because at the end of the day it's Armenia that has the most to lose from this situation. And for their part, Armenian officials must silence Armenia's Western-funded jackals. The people on the street, at least in this case, isn't the problem. The problem we have are the Western-backed mercenaries shamelessly and treacherously inciting the people towards violence.
Everything must be done to not further damage Armenian-Russian relations. Yes, Permyakov's actions have dealt Russian-Armenian relations a serious blow. But we must move on. We cannot dwell on the Gyumri tragedy. We have to deescalate tensions. What Armenians need to do is mourn the victims of the Gyumri massacre, especially the young ones, and demand from Armenian and Russian officials that they make an example out of the criminal/criminals involved. Armenians also need to demand this incident be thoroughly investigated and security regulations at the base thoroughly reviewed. Armenians must demand better screening of military personnel being brought into Armenia. Armenians must demand changes to be made where needed. Armenians must demand better accountability from Moscow because the 102nd base is also strategically important to Russia. For their part, Russian officials need to recognize that what happens in Gyumri is a terrible blow to Russian-Armenian relations and it comes at a very sensitive time in the region's political climate. Russian officials must understand that this incident has profoundly upset Armenians worldwide. Russian officials must also understand that the Armenian people's outrage is justified and that the people had no choice but to protest the murders. Something as horrible as this incident could not be taken lightly. When anger and emotions are the main driving force in any situation, objectivity disappears and demands and actions become irrational.
Russian officials must also realize that this incident will now be mercilessly exploited by pro-Western activists inside Armenia and used against Russian interests in the country - if they are seen as being indifferent to Armenian concerns. Therefore, going forward, Moscow's approach to resolving this matter must not make things worst. Russian officials must, as quickly as possible, condemn the murderer to life in prison or execute him, whichever is allowable by applicable law. I hope to see Moscow remedy this matter urgently ultimately for Armenia's sake because at the end of the day it's Armenia that has the most to lose from this situation. And for their part, Armenian officials must silence Armenia's Western-funded jackals. The people on the street, at least in this case, isn't the problem. The problem we have are the Western-backed mercenaries shamelessly and treacherously inciting the people towards violence.
Flaws appearing in the relationship
I
am a bit disappointed with Moscow, but it's not because they have have
not extradited murder suspect Permyakov. I am a big
boy and I understand the nature of politics and international relations. No major power, a superpower nonetheless, will ever handover its service personnel to another country for any reason regardless of the circumstances. This is not a matter of principle, justice or ethics,
this is simply a matter of geopolitics and laws governing international relations. Take a quick look at the
many atrocities carried out by "freedom and democracy loving" US military
personnel around the world. There is not a single instance where there
was even talk about handing US military personnel involved in any crime to any other nation, including
allied nations. It just does not happen, and that is exactly why
Armenia's Western-led political opposition activists are exploiting the situation. Knowing that Moscow will never handover one of its military personnel, they
are demanding his handover, and they are painting Moscow's refusal to do so as an aggressive act. It's merely the opposition's way of exploiting a given circumstance to drive forward a Western agenda. In fact, it's been surreal watching opposition freaks in Armenia demanding Permyakov's extradition. Since
when has Armenia's
Western-led political opposition had any respect or confidence in
Armenia's judiciary or law enforcement bodies? Needless to say, the Western-led political opposition is only
concerned about making Russia look bad in any way possible. Even if Russian officials had immediately extradited Permyakov to Armenia, Uncle Sam's lemming would have found another excuse to
fault Russia with. Ultimately, however, the political opposition is doing what it is doing because Yerevan has allowed them a free hand in the country.
So then, why am I disappointed with Moscow?
Because I fault Moscow for not being more proactive in Armenia's domestic affairs. Because I fault Moscow for not being more inclined to using soft power in Armenia. Because I fault Moscow for not appreciating the power of PR in Armenia. I want to see Moscow being more directly invested in domestic matters in Armenia not because I want Russian meddling in Armenia per se but because Armenia already has - and has had for past twenty years - powerful Western meddling. I want to see the Western agenda in Yerevan offset by increased Russian involvement. With that said, I'm also a bit disappointed that the atrocity in Gyumri did not have immediate resonance in the Kremlin. A high level Russian delegation should have been sent to Yerevan within a day or two after the incident. I understand that Russians officials have very serious problems at hand, not the least of which is the very serious situation in Ukraine. I also know Russians well enough to realize that it's simply not in the Russian character or part of the political culture in Moscow to fall to their knees and immediately apologize for every single tragedy that takes place - simply because there have been so many tragedies both big and small in that part of the world in recent history. Russian emotions are calloused. We see it even in tragedies that occur in Russia. Russians, by nature, are cold. This should not, however, be interpreted as carelessness or indifference or worst. It's simply Russians being Russian. With that said, Russian officials must work to change certain aspect of Russia's political culture because perception is reality. Moscow would do well to learn a few fundamental things about PR from the West. It should be said however that after the initial shock of the incident in Gyumri had dissipated, Russians did begin reaching out and Armenians began seeing that the Russian nation, including Russian officials, were also deeply upset at what had taken place in Gyumri. The following are some interesting comments about the Gyumri incident made by a well known Russian writer and political activist -
So then, why am I disappointed with Moscow?
Because I fault Moscow for not being more proactive in Armenia's domestic affairs. Because I fault Moscow for not being more inclined to using soft power in Armenia. Because I fault Moscow for not appreciating the power of PR in Armenia. I want to see Moscow being more directly invested in domestic matters in Armenia not because I want Russian meddling in Armenia per se but because Armenia already has - and has had for past twenty years - powerful Western meddling. I want to see the Western agenda in Yerevan offset by increased Russian involvement. With that said, I'm also a bit disappointed that the atrocity in Gyumri did not have immediate resonance in the Kremlin. A high level Russian delegation should have been sent to Yerevan within a day or two after the incident. I understand that Russians officials have very serious problems at hand, not the least of which is the very serious situation in Ukraine. I also know Russians well enough to realize that it's simply not in the Russian character or part of the political culture in Moscow to fall to their knees and immediately apologize for every single tragedy that takes place - simply because there have been so many tragedies both big and small in that part of the world in recent history. Russian emotions are calloused. We see it even in tragedies that occur in Russia. Russians, by nature, are cold. This should not, however, be interpreted as carelessness or indifference or worst. It's simply Russians being Russian. With that said, Russian officials must work to change certain aspect of Russia's political culture because perception is reality. Moscow would do well to learn a few fundamental things about PR from the West. It should be said however that after the initial shock of the incident in Gyumri had dissipated, Russians did begin reaching out and Armenians began seeing that the Russian nation, including Russian officials, were also deeply upset at what had taken place in Gyumri. The following are some interesting comments about the Gyumri incident made by a well known Russian writer and political activist -
However, expressing constructive thoughts, mourning and being apologetic is not merely enough in this case. Russian officials must understand that they can have serious problems in Armenia and in the south Caucasus one day if they neglect to take Armenian concerns seriously. Yes, Russia has been a lifeline for Armenia and Armenians are thankful for that. But Moscow has also neglected Armenia in some regards.Николай Стариков 25 января 2015 (Познавательное ТВ, Николай Стариков): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9lrDzVPJpA
The lack of attention Armenia gets from Moscow is perhaps the only, albeit major flaw in Russian-Armenian alliance. The vacuum that Russia has left in Armenia is being filled by Westerners. For example: While Armenians regularly get to see US ambassadors to Armenia engaging in public outreach, sightings of Russian ambassadors to Armenia continue being very rare occurrences. Yes, I realize that it's just not in the Russian style to bring Armenians and Azeris together to dance like monkeys and make Armenians think they are happy when they are singing foreign songs, but Russian officials need to somehow figure out a way to be seen in public in Armenia more often and the Russian embassy in Yerevan needs to start doing some outreach programs. Because, as I said, perception is reality.
Nevertheless, I blame both Russians and Armenians for this situation.
But I put most of the blame on Armenians. I say this because I realize that Russia is a bit more important to Armenia than Armenia is to Russia. Despite what our nationalist nutjobs want us to believe, Russia can figure out a way to survive without an allied Armenia. Despite how hard I try, however, I cannot imagine a scenario where Armenia would be able to survive in the south Caucasus without help from Russia. So, it's up to Armenians to place emphasis on becoming a noticeable presence in Moscow. It's up to Armenians to exploit the full potentials of Russia's alliance.
Regarding Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan: Again, I primarily blame the Armenian side. Russia is pursuing its interests. For them, it's a matter of realpolitik. In other words: Moscow naturally wants to keep Azerbaijan within its orbit as well, and it realizes that if it does not sell arms to Baku others will. Those who have a healthy understanding of international relations and military matters, understand that Russian arms supplies to Baku is not an anti-Armenian measure. Those who understand the nature of geopolitics, understand that it is better for Baku to get its arms from Russia than from Israel or Turkey. But, as we all know, Russian arms sales to Baku has gotten a lot of bad press throughout Armenian society. Russophobia in Armenia has increased as a result. This is ultimately due to Yerevan's failure to explain such political matters to its citizenry. I would also add that had Armenian officials been a discernible presence in Moscow, the nature or scale of Russian arms supplies to Baku may have been different. So, instead of properly conveying Armenian concerns to top level Russian officials through concerted lobbying efforts in Moscow, we have been fear-mongering about Russia, and as we recently saw, some of us have been burning Russian flags in front of the Russian embassy in Armenia. Knowing Russian character, this is the last thing we should be doing. But, Armenians we will Armenians.
Armenians admire Jews. Armenians complain that Armenians are not like Jews... But when the time comes for Armenians to act like Jews, Armenians act like Arabs. Go figure...
Armenians have failed to become a presence inside Moscow (perhaps assuming it's not necessary since Russia is a strategic ally) and have instead concentrated on establishing closer relations with Western bodies. Russians, for their part, have neglected little Armenia, assuming that Armenia is an ally and will remain an ally no matter what Moscow does. Essentially, both sides are sure of each others fidelity, both sides are neglecting each other as a result. Therefore, both sides are fundamentally wrong in my opinion. Armenia must place all its emphasis and its limited resources on establishing an effective and permanent presence inside the walls of the Kremlin. As I have said in the past: While Armenia's military is its tactical advantage on the battlefield, Armenia's alliance with the Russian Bear has to be made its strategic advantage on the world stage. Russians must realize that Armenia's internal problems are being exploited by Western/Turkish interests and used against Russia's presence in Armenia. Russian officials must realize that the situation in Armenia may get worst in the future because Western propaganda machine is targeting Armenia's youth.
Moscow needs to get proactive in Yerevan because Armenian officials are too incompetent and/or too corrupt to do what is in the best interests of Armenia or of Russian-Armenian relations. Moscow must understand that simply controlling strategic sectors in Armenia is not enough for securing Russian interests for a country like Armenia. I would therefore like to see Russian officials take the initiative in this regard because I do not have much confidence in Armenians to get the job done.
Armenia is a nation today that is suffering terribly from a deficit of farsighted officials, professionals, intellectuals and pragmatic nationalists. Shortsighted politics is the fundamental problem with Armenians today. We Armenians, at our very core, are the ultimate survivalists. We are programmed only think in the short-term - how to survive today's problems, how to weather the today's storm. This trait (learned during the past one thousand-plus years) is perhaps why we have had short periods of independence and long periods of living as subject peoples. The reigns of power in Armenia today are in the hands of illiterate peasants, greedy monopolists and Western mercenaries. There is a virtual absence of sober-minded, farsighted or pragmatic nationalism in Armenian society today. The modern Armenian is too spineless, too selfish, too ostentatious, too arrogant, too egotistic, too emotional, too reactionary, too materialistic, too moneygrubbing, too clannish, too politically ignorant and too enthralled by Western fairytales to do things that are actually in the long-term interests of the Armenian homeland. In fact, for a few dollars - or a Green Card - the typical Armenian in Armenia today is fully capable, wittingly or unwittingly, of betraying his or her homeland. Sadly, the overall situation is even sadder in the once proud Armenian Diaspora. The typical Diasporan today, the vast majority perhaps, is too busy assimilating in their beloved lands where - "when two of them meet... see if they will not create a New Armenia". And for the increasingly small numbers of Diasporans who have anything to do with the Armenian homeland, Armenia has unfortunately become something like an exotic zoo or a open air laboratory where to concoct volatile sociopolitical experiments.
I
know they have a lot of their hands, but I hope Russian officials
eventually come to their good senses and begin to better appreciate the strategic importance of Armenia. Although
I realize that it's primarily the responsibility of us Armenians to put Armenia in
order, I also realize that the entire political
landscape in Armenia today is rotten to the core and needs to be thoroughly overhauled. And we Armenians in general seem incapable of nation-building at this stage of our people's development. We must
therefore be spoon fed. The Armenian government, the Armenian people, simply do not
have what it takes to be able to resist Western machinations. Armenia is too young and too inexperienced to resist the masters of deception and manipulation. Armenia needs less exposure to Western powers because less exposure means less risk. I hope to see Russian officials come to
the realization that Armenia's sociopolitical health and well-being is beneficial
for Russian interests. I hope to see Moscow clean house in Yerevan before Armenia falls apart from within. Armenia
needs direct Russian support. Armenian officials must begin formulating long-term strategies for the establishment of better working relationships with Iran, India and China. Armenian officials must begin formulating long-term strategies to exploit the potentials of Russia's alliance with Armenia. Yet Yerevan is still continuing its rudderless politics of ass kissing in the West. The following is the latest brilliant move by Armenian officials -
Since we are on the topic of Armenian political illiteracy and self-destructive behavior, I also like to point out that Armenians are panicking once more about Moscow's attempt to move closer to Ankara - at Armenia's expense! They point to the recent natural gas agreement Moscow reached with Ankara as "evidence" of this impending catastrophe. Apparently, these people think Syria is strategically much more important to Russia than Armenia - since for the past four years Russia has resisted all attempts by Western powers, Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to abandon Syria. Yet, these people think Moscow will now simply abandon Armenia for a few billion dollars worth of natural gas to Ankara... Brilliant reasoning! Instead of feeling confident that due to its growing dependency on Moscow Ankara will no longer be able to have any political designs within areas of Russian influence (such as the south Caucasus) our peasantry is, as usual, panicking that Moscow is about to betray Armenia. Consequently, there are public voices once more calling Armenia's "alliance" with Russia into question. And, believe it or not, there are even voices warning about a possible partitioning of Armenia between "neocolonialist" Russia and Turkey -
The only thing I have to say about this typical Armenian nonsense is this: If Russia and Turkey ever became BFF and decide to partition Armenia
or worst, nobody will stop them from doing so, nobody is capable of stopping them from doing so. So pray it does not happen. Actually, work on making sure something like that does not happen! Sitting on one's ass and complaining about this or that has seemingly become a national sport among Armenians. If this is how Armenians have always been, no wonder we have not been able to have long periods of statehood. As far as the modern Armenian is concerned: One must travel into the deepest African jungle or visit the remotest
Arabian desert village to find a tribe of people more politically
illiterate. And we want Russians to take us seriously? And we want Russians to trust us? And we want Russian to treat us with white gloves? And we complain when Russia sells arms to Baku? The disappointment I sometimes feel towards my countrymen is profound.
At a time when the entire region within which Armenia is unfortunately located in is ready to explode, the ONLY nation that has the interest - and the capability - to come to Armenia's help if need be is being alienated by our chobans-in-Armani-suits. When the proverbial shit hits the fan in the south Caucasus, the ONLY nation that has an interest in keeping Armenia alive is Russia. If for some reason Russia pulls its protective hand away from Armenia one day and Turkish/Azeri forces are allowed to gather on the Armenian border, NOT ONE of our flag burning Russophobes will rush to the border to defend Armenia. If Russia washes its hands from Armenia and Moscow gives the green light to Turkish/Azeri forces to do as they please, surely not the West - but not even a million of our tough talking "fedayees" would be able to stop Armenia from being overrun.
Many Armenians worry that we are putting all our eggs in the Russian basket. First of all, Yerevan has not put all its eggs in one basket. With that said, we need to realize that don't have many eggs to begin with. We must therefore pick the best possible basket for our few eggs to survive in. After all, isn't the survival of our eggs the main point of basket diversification? Realistically, however, Russia is the only basket that offers security for our eggs. Realistically, we have only one basket for our eggs. Look at it this way: If God forbid there is another terrible revolution in Russia and Russian troops suddenly withdrew from the south Caucasus, do we really think that having eggs in Western baskets is going to help Armenia in any way? A century ago our foolhardy revolutionaries thought that by pandering to Western powers, Western power will come to Armenia's help in times of need. Many of our compatriots even fought for French and British powers. Many of our compatriots at the time also fought against Czarist Russia. But when the shit hit the fan back then and Russian forces withdrew from the south Caucasus, did Western powers rush to Armenia's assistance when Turks began ravaging Western Armenia? No, they did not. Appealed for help by Armenians, Western powers said their ships "couldn't climb the mountains" to save Armenians. Then, quite literally in the middle of the night, the French unexpectedly and treacherously abandoned Armenian Kilikia to the genocidal Turks.
So folks, I think one genocide is enough. Don't you? After all, one has to be an utter fool to think the West has not changed.
Did Western powers come to Cyprus' assistance when Turkey invaded? Was it the West that threatened Turkey with a world war back in 1993 when Ankara had massed troops on Armenia's borders? Has the West stopped Turkish aggression against Kurds? Has the West stopped Turkish aggression against Syria? Has the West done anything about Turkish support for ISIS? Has the West come to the assistance of its "moderate rebels" in Syria? Was the West been able to stop the ethnic cleansing of Yezdis in Iraq? Did the West protect their favorite dictator in Tbilisi from the Russian Bear in 2008? Has the Western been able to stop Ukraine's slide into war and chaos? Was the West able to stop Russia's annexation of Crimea? Has the West been able to stop the advance of Russian-back rebels in eastern Ukraine?
When push comes to shove the West is impotent at best, treacherous at worst. Therefore, no surprise that the Vice President of the US apologizes to Turkey and Turks respond by telling him to siktir. Also, no surprise that the British "royal heir" will be in Gallipoli this April 24 to personally kiss some Turkish ass.
The point I'm making is this: Armenian eggs in the Western basket does not do Armenia any good in any way. It's pointless and it's a waste of time. It's self-deception to believe otherwise. We need to pick the basket that promises the most security for our eggs. That basket, the ONLY basket is Russia.
Everything must be done to not further damage Armenian-Russian relations. Everything must be done not to allow Armenia's pro-Western mercenaries to spread Russophobia within Armenian society. I reiterate: Armenia today survives in the south Caucasus because of its alliance to Russia. Armenia's alliance with Russia is the number one priority of the Armenian people. At the end of the day, Armenians must be rational enough and sober enough to understand that in reality we do not have any other baskets to place our eggs into. If the Russian Bear for one reason or another turns against Armenia, Armenia will cease to exist once more - or simply become subservient to Turkey. When the proverbial shit hits the fan in Armenia (and that is where it may be heading) and Armenia continues to be economically and politically vulnerable, forget about Russian nationalists asking President Putin to invade Armenia, there will be many Armenians - such as myself - BEGGING President Putin to invade Armenia. We don't want it to get to that point, which is why we need to be lobbying - or ass kissing, if you will - in Moscow, not in Washington. Due to Yerevan's complimentary politics Armenia is being torn between two super powers. When you try to please two competitive superpowers, no one, including yourself, ends up happy. Yerevan's middle of the road politics has stagnated Armenia economically and sown the seeds of unrest sociopolitically. This is why Yerevan needs to stop its foolish appeasement policies and begin formulating a serious, farsighted, realpolitik based foreign policy for Armenia. Yerevan's needs to concentrate on more effectively exploiting the opportunities Russia's alliance provides. Yerevan needs to place emphasis on establishing deeper economic and political cooperation with Iran, India and China..
What happened in Gyumri has empowered dark forces working against Russia and Armenia. This tragedy has once again revealed Russia's many vulnerabilities. This tragedy has once again revealed the Armenian government's incompetence. This tragedy has once again revealed Armenia's Western-led political opposition's irrationality and treachery. All in all, what happened in Gyumri on January 12 is a tragedy on many levels, and the damage is has caused to Russian-Armenian relations will reverberate for many, many years to come. We must do our best not to make matters worst.
Armenians need to put aside their political differences, diasporan mentalities and Cold War era derived biases and realize that the world is heading toward very tumultuous times, and also realize that Armenia is not ready to meet challenges that await it. As I alluded to earlier in this commentary: The specter of a world war hangs over humanity and our small, impoverished, remote, landlocked and inexperienced Armenia is surrounded by voracious predators. This is therefore not the time - and the south Caucasus is definitely not the place - for a regime change or for Russophobia! This is the time for Armenians worldwide to rally around the Armenian state. This is the time to strengthen Armenia by strengthening Yerevan's ties with Moscow. This is the time to lessen Armenia's exposure to Western powers (because less exposure means less risk). The key to Armenia's national security lies in Moscow, not in pathetically pandering to Western powers. The key to peace and prosperity in the south Caucasus lies in Pax Russica, not in Yerevan's failed complimentary politics. We Armenians better get our act together because if we don't, we will lose Artsakh, or worst.
In addition to news articles I normally post to supplement my blog commentary, this time I have also posted some links to previous blog commentaries regarding Russian-Armenian relations. Russian-Armenian relations remain the number one priority of the Armenian nation today and will remain so for the foreseeable future. We Armenians urgently need to better understand the relationship's importance and better appreciate the potential it holds for Armenia. Please make time and read them.
Arevordi,
January, 2015
PACE Vote: Armenia abstains as Russia stripped of rights in Strasbourg: http://www.armenianow.com/news/60175/armenia_pace_vote_russia_azerbaijan
Once
again we are seeing Yerevan's
disastrous "complimentary politics" at work. As you can see, Armenia abstained from
voting in an anti-Russian resolution at PACE - while Azerbaijan voted against the anti-Russian resolution. Once more we see Azeris
cleverly pandering to Moscow while our idiots continue foolishly
kissing Uncle Sam's ass. What are Armenian officials hoping to gain my
angering Moscow and impressing Western powers? A few extra dollars for their pockets? A few more NGOs? A few more Western mercenaries? Deeper financial servitude to Western banks? So that when Yerevan does not behave well in the future, they can put sanctions on Armenia as well? It's not like Armenia's vote
would have mattered in the final outcome anyway. Why couldn't Armenian officials cast the vote in favor of their only ally? Why are we making Azeris look smarter than us? This PACE vote was
actually quite revealing of the directionless, clueless political culture prevalent in Yerevan today. And as bad as this was, it was not nearly as bad as Armenian troops joining Turks, Azeris and Westerners to conduct military exercises aimed
against Russian actions in Ukraine -
Just think: How would we Armenians have reacted if Russian troops joined Azeri and Turkish troops in Azerbaijan to conduct military exercises aimed against Artsakh?NATO, Ukraine join military exercise in Bulgaria: http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=237082
Since we are on the topic of Armenian political illiteracy and self-destructive behavior, I also like to point out that Armenians are panicking once more about Moscow's attempt to move closer to Ankara - at Armenia's expense! They point to the recent natural gas agreement Moscow reached with Ankara as "evidence" of this impending catastrophe. Apparently, these people think Syria is strategically much more important to Russia than Armenia - since for the past four years Russia has resisted all attempts by Western powers, Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to abandon Syria. Yet, these people think Moscow will now simply abandon Armenia for a few billion dollars worth of natural gas to Ankara... Brilliant reasoning! Instead of feeling confident that due to its growing dependency on Moscow Ankara will no longer be able to have any political designs within areas of Russian influence (such as the south Caucasus) our peasantry is, as usual, panicking that Moscow is about to betray Armenia. Consequently, there are public voices once more calling Armenia's "alliance" with Russia into question. And, believe it or not, there are even voices warning about a possible partitioning of Armenia between "neocolonialist" Russia and Turkey -
Armenia wary of new Russo-Turkish alliance based on neocolonialist policies: http://www.armenianlife.com/2015/01/27/analysis-armenia-wary-of-new-russo-turkish-alliance-based-on-neocolonialist-policies
At a time when the entire region within which Armenia is unfortunately located in is ready to explode, the ONLY nation that has the interest - and the capability - to come to Armenia's help if need be is being alienated by our chobans-in-Armani-suits. When the proverbial shit hits the fan in the south Caucasus, the ONLY nation that has an interest in keeping Armenia alive is Russia. If for some reason Russia pulls its protective hand away from Armenia one day and Turkish/Azeri forces are allowed to gather on the Armenian border, NOT ONE of our flag burning Russophobes will rush to the border to defend Armenia. If Russia washes its hands from Armenia and Moscow gives the green light to Turkish/Azeri forces to do as they please, surely not the West - but not even a million of our tough talking "fedayees" would be able to stop Armenia from being overrun.
Many Armenians worry that we are putting all our eggs in the Russian basket. First of all, Yerevan has not put all its eggs in one basket. With that said, we need to realize that don't have many eggs to begin with. We must therefore pick the best possible basket for our few eggs to survive in. After all, isn't the survival of our eggs the main point of basket diversification? Realistically, however, Russia is the only basket that offers security for our eggs. Realistically, we have only one basket for our eggs. Look at it this way: If God forbid there is another terrible revolution in Russia and Russian troops suddenly withdrew from the south Caucasus, do we really think that having eggs in Western baskets is going to help Armenia in any way? A century ago our foolhardy revolutionaries thought that by pandering to Western powers, Western power will come to Armenia's help in times of need. Many of our compatriots even fought for French and British powers. Many of our compatriots at the time also fought against Czarist Russia. But when the shit hit the fan back then and Russian forces withdrew from the south Caucasus, did Western powers rush to Armenia's assistance when Turks began ravaging Western Armenia? No, they did not. Appealed for help by Armenians, Western powers said their ships "couldn't climb the mountains" to save Armenians. Then, quite literally in the middle of the night, the French unexpectedly and treacherously abandoned Armenian Kilikia to the genocidal Turks.
So folks, I think one genocide is enough. Don't you? After all, one has to be an utter fool to think the West has not changed.
Did Western powers come to Cyprus' assistance when Turkey invaded? Was it the West that threatened Turkey with a world war back in 1993 when Ankara had massed troops on Armenia's borders? Has the West stopped Turkish aggression against Kurds? Has the West stopped Turkish aggression against Syria? Has the West done anything about Turkish support for ISIS? Has the West come to the assistance of its "moderate rebels" in Syria? Was the West been able to stop the ethnic cleansing of Yezdis in Iraq? Did the West protect their favorite dictator in Tbilisi from the Russian Bear in 2008? Has the Western been able to stop Ukraine's slide into war and chaos? Was the West able to stop Russia's annexation of Crimea? Has the West been able to stop the advance of Russian-back rebels in eastern Ukraine?
When push comes to shove the West is impotent at best, treacherous at worst. Therefore, no surprise that the Vice President of the US apologizes to Turkey and Turks respond by telling him to siktir. Also, no surprise that the British "royal heir" will be in Gallipoli this April 24 to personally kiss some Turkish ass.
The point I'm making is this: Armenian eggs in the Western basket does not do Armenia any good in any way. It's pointless and it's a waste of time. It's self-deception to believe otherwise. We need to pick the basket that promises the most security for our eggs. That basket, the ONLY basket is Russia.
Everything must be done to not further damage Armenian-Russian relations. Everything must be done not to allow Armenia's pro-Western mercenaries to spread Russophobia within Armenian society. I reiterate: Armenia today survives in the south Caucasus because of its alliance to Russia. Armenia's alliance with Russia is the number one priority of the Armenian people. At the end of the day, Armenians must be rational enough and sober enough to understand that in reality we do not have any other baskets to place our eggs into. If the Russian Bear for one reason or another turns against Armenia, Armenia will cease to exist once more - or simply become subservient to Turkey. When the proverbial shit hits the fan in Armenia (and that is where it may be heading) and Armenia continues to be economically and politically vulnerable, forget about Russian nationalists asking President Putin to invade Armenia, there will be many Armenians - such as myself - BEGGING President Putin to invade Armenia. We don't want it to get to that point, which is why we need to be lobbying - or ass kissing, if you will - in Moscow, not in Washington. Due to Yerevan's complimentary politics Armenia is being torn between two super powers. When you try to please two competitive superpowers, no one, including yourself, ends up happy. Yerevan's middle of the road politics has stagnated Armenia economically and sown the seeds of unrest sociopolitically. This is why Yerevan needs to stop its foolish appeasement policies and begin formulating a serious, farsighted, realpolitik based foreign policy for Armenia. Yerevan's needs to concentrate on more effectively exploiting the opportunities Russia's alliance provides. Yerevan needs to place emphasis on establishing deeper economic and political cooperation with Iran, India and China..
What happened in Gyumri has empowered dark forces working against Russia and Armenia. This tragedy has once again revealed Russia's many vulnerabilities. This tragedy has once again revealed the Armenian government's incompetence. This tragedy has once again revealed Armenia's Western-led political opposition's irrationality and treachery. All in all, what happened in Gyumri on January 12 is a tragedy on many levels, and the damage is has caused to Russian-Armenian relations will reverberate for many, many years to come. We must do our best not to make matters worst.
Armenians need to put aside their political differences, diasporan mentalities and Cold War era derived biases and realize that the world is heading toward very tumultuous times, and also realize that Armenia is not ready to meet challenges that await it. As I alluded to earlier in this commentary: The specter of a world war hangs over humanity and our small, impoverished, remote, landlocked and inexperienced Armenia is surrounded by voracious predators. This is therefore not the time - and the south Caucasus is definitely not the place - for a regime change or for Russophobia! This is the time for Armenians worldwide to rally around the Armenian state. This is the time to strengthen Armenia by strengthening Yerevan's ties with Moscow. This is the time to lessen Armenia's exposure to Western powers (because less exposure means less risk). The key to Armenia's national security lies in Moscow, not in pathetically pandering to Western powers. The key to peace and prosperity in the south Caucasus lies in Pax Russica, not in Yerevan's failed complimentary politics. We Armenians better get our act together because if we don't, we will lose Artsakh, or worst.
In addition to news articles I normally post to supplement my blog commentary, this time I have also posted some links to previous blog commentaries regarding Russian-Armenian relations. Russian-Armenian relations remain the number one priority of the Armenian nation today and will remain so for the foreseeable future. We Armenians urgently need to better understand the relationship's importance and better appreciate the potential it holds for Armenia. Please make time and read them.
Arevordi,
January, 2015
***
Caucasus Update I (August, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/as-result-of-russias-growing-military.html
Caucasus Update II (August, 2010) : http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/caucasus-update-part-ii-russias.html
Caucasus Update III (August, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/as-we-armenians-watched-president-of.html
Caucasus Update IV (August, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/although-bit-measured-in-other-words.html
Caucasus Update V (August, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/many-armenians-today-no-longer-seem.html
Armenia, Russia must have common border (November, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/since-medvedevs-historic-visit-to.html
Russia Cannot Afford to Lose Armenia (December, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/12/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-armenia.htmlIs Russophilia Hindering Armenia? (October, 2011): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/10/is-russophilia-hindering-armenia.html
Russian expert: U.S. ousting Russia from Armenia (October, 2011): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/10/russian-expert-us-ousting-russia-from.html
New Western led Opposition Slogan in Armenia: "Russia wants Armenia without Armenians!" (October, 2011): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/10/russia-wants-armenia-without-armenians.html
Can Armenia exploit Russian actions in the Caucasus? (April, 2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/04/can-armenia-exploit-russias-action-plan.html
Russian military buildup in Caucasus, Russian anti-terror troops arrive in Syria, Armenia moves closer to Russia (March, 2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/03/russian-anti-terror-troops-arrive-in.html
Russia Hints at Intervention in Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict (July, 2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/07/russia-hints-at-intervention-in-armenia.html
Unprecedented Russia-led CSTO War Games in Armenia (September, 2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/09/unprecedented-russia-led-war-games_20.html
Looking at US-Turkish relations and Russian-Armenian relations (November, 2012): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2012/11/us-working-to-strengthen-relations-with.html
Moscow Warning Armenia Over European Integration Drive (July, 2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/07/moscow-warning-armenia-over-european.html
Armenians want to know, is Russia a friend or foe? (August, 2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/08/is-russia-friend-or-foe-august-2013.html
President Putin's visit bolsters Armenia politically, economically and militarily (December, 2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/12/president-putins-visit-bolsters-armenia.html
Armenia set to become a founding member in the Eurasian Union (October, 2014): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2014/10/armenia-set-to-become-founding-member_31.html
I wish you all a very Happy Sarikamish (January, 2015 ): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2015/01/i-wish-you-all-very-happy-sarikamish.html
***
Sergey Lavrov: Attempts to politicize Gyumri tragedy are inadmissible
Last
week’s outrageous massacre in the Armenian city of Gyumri, to
which Russian soldier Valery Permyakov has confessed, will not affect
relations between Russia and Armenia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov said on Wednesday, TASS reported. “Everything necessary will be
done for the investigation of this
tragedy,” Lavrov said speaking at his annual news conference. “I am sure
that Russian-Armenian relations will not be harmed.” The top Russian
diplomat also said that attempts of politicizing the Gyumri tragedy were
inadmissible. “There are attempts to politicize [the incident] and they
come not
from Yerevan, not from Armenia,” Lavrov said. “This is inadmissible and
unworthy of the Armenian people, who would never yield to such
provocations.”
According to investigators, on January 12 Private Valery
Permyakov, a soldier of the Russian military base in Armenia, left his
post without permission carrying arms and cartridges. Later on, he broke into a private house in Gyumri and shot dead a
family of six, including a two-year child, and wounded a six-month baby
who later died in hospital. Permyakov left his uniform and footwear with badges and his
submachine gun and munitions and fled the scene. He was arrested on the
same day by Russian border guards while trying to cross Armenia’s border
to Turkey and confessed to the crime.
Ombudsman: Anti-Russian
hysteria around Giumry tragedy in interest of Armenia-Russia
relationship opponents only
Anti-Russian
hysteria around Giumry tragedy is irrelevant and is only in the
interest of the opponents of Armenia-Russia relations, executive
director of “Against Lawlessness” NGO and the first ombudsman of Armenia
Larisa Alaverdyan said, as cited by Novosti-Armenia.
Not an emotional, but a realistic approach should be taken in this
issue, she said. According to the expert, the current situation is
within comfort zone of Azerbaijan and Turkey and in line with
anti-Russian sentiments of the West.
Alaveryan said the events may have had political background that relied on high emotionality of the Armenian nation.
It is unacceptable to politicize the issue demand severing of all
relations with Russia, she said. The opponents of Armenia-Russia
relations may take the advantage of the tragic events, she said.
Alaverdyan said she shares Giumry people’s anger feelings, but supports tough development scenarios.
According to the ex-ombudsman, the anger was caused by the
unacceptable sluggishness the Armenian authorizes responded with to the
case.
Alaverdyan said a multi-sided and detailed investigation is needed
into Permyakov’s case as many of the alleged aspects give rise to
doubts. Alaverdyan stressed the investigation, the trial and the service
of the sentence should take place in the territory of Armenia, having
in mind the gravity of the crime and the political background. Russian
agencies may provide their support on various issues, she said.
The tense situation in Giumry occurred after a family of six,
Serezha Avetisyan (born in 1961), Hasmik Avetisyan (born 1959), Aida
Avetisyan (1979), Armen Avetisyan (1981), Araksia Poghosyan (1990) and
two-year old Hasmik Avetisyan were fatally shot in Giumry on Monday
morning. The only who survived was grandchild Serezha Avetisyan who was
operated and is currently in intensive care unit at St. Astvatsamayr
Medical Center in Yerevan. According to the preliminary information, the
suspect is Russian military base conscript Valery Permyakov who was
detained while trying to cross Armenia’s border into Turkey on January
13 and admitted guilt.
According to the most recent information, 14 people were injured,
including three policemen who are still in medical institutions, and 13
detained in Giumry clashes.
- See more at:
http://arka.am/en/news/politics/anti_russian_hysteria_around_giumry_tragedy_in_interest_of_armenia_russia_relationship_opponents_only+-+ex-ombudsman/#sthash.0suM8z64.dpuf
Anti-Russian hysteria around Giumry tragedy is irrelevant and is only in the interest of the opponents of Armenia-Russia relations, executive director of “Against Lawlessness” NGO and the first ombudsman of Armenia Larisa Alaverdyan said, as cited by Novosti-Armenia. Not an emotional, but a realistic approach should be taken in this issue, she said. According to the expert, the current situation is within comfort zone of Azerbaijan and Turkey and in line with anti-Russian sentiments of the West.
Alaveryan said the events may have had political background that relied on high emotionality of the Armenian nation. It is unacceptable to politicize the issue demand severing of all relations with Russia, she said. The opponents of Armenia-Russia relations may take the advantage of the tragic events, she said. Alaverdyan said she shares Giumry people’s anger feelings, but supports tough development scenarios.
According to the ex-ombudsman, the anger was caused by the unacceptable sluggishness the Armenian authorizes responded with to the case. Alaverdyan said a multi-sided and detailed investigation is needed into Permyakov’s case as many of the alleged aspects give rise to doubts. Alaverdyan stressed the investigation, the trial and the service of the sentence should take place in the territory of Armenia, having in mind the gravity of the crime and the political background. Russian agencies may provide their support on various issues, she said.
The tense situation in Giumry occurred after a family of six, Serezha Avetisyan (born in 1961), Hasmik Avetisyan (born 1959), Aida Avetisyan (1979), Armen Avetisyan (1981), Araksia Poghosyan (1990) and two-year old Hasmik Avetisyan were fatally shot in Giumry on Monday morning. The only who survived was grandchild Serezha Avetisyan who was operated and is currently in intensive care unit at St. Astvatsamayr Medical Center in Yerevan. According to the preliminary information, the suspect is Russian military base conscript Valery Permyakov who was detained while trying to cross Armenia’s border into Turkey on January 13 and admitted guilt. According to the most recent information, 14 people were injured, including three policemen who are still in medical institutions, and 13 detained in Giumry clashes.
Source: http://arka.am/en/news/politics
Tevan Poghosyan: Armenia’s enemies could take advantage of situation
In an interview with Tert.am, Heritage parliamentary group
member Tevan Poghosyan commented on the Gyumri tragedy and events in
Yerevan. He noted that Armenia’s society and authorities failed to prevent that situation by coordinated actions. Asked if Armenia’s law-enforcement agencies should consider a
possibility of attempted destabilization of the situation in the country
amid the public protests and indignation at the massacre in Gyumri, Mr
Poghosyan said:
“Certainly all the versions must be considered. The motive for the crime is not clear now. So the law-enforcers should most seriously consider the possibility of a premeditated crime to escalate tension in Armenia and provoke popular hostility.
“And even if a transparent or impartial investigation reveals it was not a motive for the crime, I feel regret that our society, well aware of the possibility of certain forces making use of it, failed to be on the alert, while our law-enforcers failed to properly perform their duties to prevent the incidents.
“We, both society and the government, could have taken necessary measures to prevent such a situation. The head of the Shirak diocese was right when he said that the criminal was calm, with a public defender attached to him, while Armenians were breaking one another’s scull. Why Armenians raise their hands to one another in Yerevan or in Gyumri? We should have prevented such situations.
“The authorities should have informed the public of the developments from the very first day. Yesterday, Armenia’s prosecutor general was in Gyumri all day along. In the latter half of the day he gave promise to Gyumri residents, reminding them he had a family and was well aware of everything.
“Policemen should have talked to Gyumri residents. People raised questions, without getting answers. So they had to find them. Of course, many people could have taken advantage of the situation. Being well aware of that, we must realize the necessity of responding during the very first day. And if mourning had been declared the first day, it would have been a political ‘message’ as well.
“We must realize that our enemies are not asleep and trying to take advantage of instability in Armenia. Although it was an unprecedented incident, we could never predict its consequences and reaction to it. But we should have been able to take certain measures and conduct negotiations.”
Source: http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/16/tevan-poghosyan/1561399
“Certainly all the versions must be considered. The motive for the crime is not clear now. So the law-enforcers should most seriously consider the possibility of a premeditated crime to escalate tension in Armenia and provoke popular hostility.
“And even if a transparent or impartial investigation reveals it was not a motive for the crime, I feel regret that our society, well aware of the possibility of certain forces making use of it, failed to be on the alert, while our law-enforcers failed to properly perform their duties to prevent the incidents.
“We, both society and the government, could have taken necessary measures to prevent such a situation. The head of the Shirak diocese was right when he said that the criminal was calm, with a public defender attached to him, while Armenians were breaking one another’s scull. Why Armenians raise their hands to one another in Yerevan or in Gyumri? We should have prevented such situations.
“The authorities should have informed the public of the developments from the very first day. Yesterday, Armenia’s prosecutor general was in Gyumri all day along. In the latter half of the day he gave promise to Gyumri residents, reminding them he had a family and was well aware of everything.
“Policemen should have talked to Gyumri residents. People raised questions, without getting answers. So they had to find them. Of course, many people could have taken advantage of the situation. Being well aware of that, we must realize the necessity of responding during the very first day. And if mourning had been declared the first day, it would have been a political ‘message’ as well.
“We must realize that our enemies are not asleep and trying to take advantage of instability in Armenia. Although it was an unprecedented incident, we could never predict its consequences and reaction to it. But we should have been able to take certain measures and conduct negotiations.”
Source: http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/01/16/tevan-poghosyan/1561399
Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan: No need to politicize Gyumri killings
“I offer my heartfelt condolences to the relatives of the victims. The First Deputy Defense Minister of Russia Arkady Bakhin is also present here. The Russian defense minister and his deputies spoke with me, underlining the importance of consistent and legal work. Investigators will reveal everything and those guilty will be punished,” Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan told reporters today. “Yet I believe that there is no need to politicize that incident and look for notes of worsening of Armenian-Russian relations in it. We have quite a high level of political relations with Russia, and our cooperation in the military sphere is also on a high level,” the defense minister said. Six member of a family, including a two-year-old child, were killed in Gyumri on January 12. A six-month-old boy was hospitalized in very critical condition. Valery Permyakov, a soldier of the Russian 102nd military base, is suspected of the crime. He was detained.
Source: http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2015/01/13/Seyran-Ohanyan-No-need-to-politicize-Gyumri-killings/893041
Armenian Police: Valery Permyakov might have acted not alone
The
criminal case on the vicious family murder in Gyumri includes many
stories related to the crime scenario. One of the stories says the
murderer Valery Permyakov might have acted not alone, Hunan Poghosyan,
deputy head of the Armenia Police, told reporters, Monday. He said the
law-enforcers of both Armenia and Russia are thoroughly analyzing every
detail and every probable scenario. "The preliminary investigation will
give answers to many questions the public is concerned over. It is
untimely to say anything specific now. There is still a probability that
Permyakov might have acted in a group," Poghosyan said. Deputy head of
the Police denied the rumors that Armenian law-enforcers detained
Permyakov on the Armenian-Turkish border and handed him over to the
Russian party. "We have no such information," Poghosyan said. He
disagreed with the statements suggesting that the Police displayed
insufficient professionalism and consistence in persecuting Permyakov,
who occurred in the hands of Russian frontier guards. "The Police acted
operatively. We carefully verified any information or alarm on
Permyakov's possible route," he said. On Jan 12, 6 members of the
Avetisyans' family were murdered in Gyumri. Though 2 weeks have passed
since the day of the murder, the investigation has not yet reasonably
explained the reasons why Valery Permyakov could commit that horrible
crime. At the moment, the criminal is staying in the territory of the
Russian 102nd military base and the residents of Gyumri still demand
transferring Permyakov to Armenian law-enforcers. The only survivor of
the Jan 12 tragedy, 6-month-old Seryozha Avetisyan, died of stab wounds
on Jan 19.
Source: http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=BC100050-A566-11E4-BDC20EB7C0D21663
Gyumri resident: Murder of Gyumri family is ‘deliberate provocation’
The murder of an Armenian family by a Russian soldier could be ‘deliberate provocation,’ rather than a coincidence, says sculptor Andranik Davtyan. He was born and raised in the same street where the six members of the Avetisyan family were brutally murdered on January 12 allegedly by a Russian soldier serving at a Russian military base in Gyumri. “Today Azerbaijan is waiting for an opportunity to start a war with Armenia, and I think that Turkey will not sit idle and will do everything to help Azerbaijan. In that case they will seek to remove Russian troops that are guarding Armenia’s border,” said Mr Davtyan. It is not accidental that Valery Permyakov, the Russian soldier who is believed to have killed the Avetisyan family, left traces at the scene of murder and attempted to cross Armenia’s border with Turkey. “The military boots that he [Valery Permyakov] left at Avetisyan’s house clearly show that he wanted to show that the author of the murder was Russian,” said the sculptor. The brutal murder in Gyumri triggered uproar in different circles over the country’s relations with its closest ally Russia, deepening controversy over the relations between the two countries. The Avetisyans – two grandparents, their son and daughter, a daughter-in-law, and young Hamsik – were shot dead on 12 January. A six-month-old boy, Seryozha – in critical condition after suffering stab wounds – is the only survivor. The suspect, Russian soldier Valery Permyakov, who was serving at Moscow’s 102nd military base in Gyumri, is said to have confessed to the crime after being apprehended by Russian border guards as he was reportedly attempting to cross into Turkey.
Source: http://en.a1plus.am/1203953.html
Russian
military base in Armenia to be staffed by contract servicemen only
starting from 2016
Russia's
102nd military base in Armenia will be staffed exclusively by personnel
serving under contracts starting from the spring of 2016, a source in
the Russian Armed Forces' General Staff told Interfax-AVN on Tuesday.
"The last conscripts will leave the 102nd Russian military base
stationed in Armenia in the spring of 2016," he said. This decision was
adopted last year and was not prompted by the suspected involvement of
Russian base serviceman Valery Permyakov in the January 12 murder of six
members of one family in the northern Armenian city of Gyumri, near
which the base is located, the source said. Russia's 201st military
base stationed in Tajikistan has been staffed exclusively by personnel
serving under contracts since December 2014, he said. The psychological
and mental health of soldiers who may serve at Russian military bases
in foreign countries will be thoroughly examined at collecting stations
in Russia's military districts, the source said. Russia's 102nd
Alexander Nevsky Order military base of the Southern Military District
is stationed at two military garrisons. Some 2,500 conscripts arrived at
the base as part of a routine rotation in December 2014. The 201st
military base is Russia's largest military facility outside its
territory. It has about 6,000 personnel accommodated near Dushanbe,
Kurgan-Tyube and Kulyab. Under an agreement signed in October 2012, the
201st military base will remain in Tajikistan until 2042 at the
earliest.
Source:http://rbth.com/news/2015/01/20/russian_military_base_in_armenia_to_be_staffed_by_contract_servicemen_on_42992.html
Russian soldier accused of slaughtering family to be tried in Armenia
A Russian soldier suspected of slaying a family in Armenia after
going AWOL will be tried in Armenia. The two countries will jointly
investigate the grizzly crime that provoked mass demonstrations. Valery Permyakov, who served at a Russian military base in
Armenia, is suspected of murdering a family in Gyumri, Armenia’s
second-largest city, on January 12. Six people were shot dead in the house while the seventh victim,
a six-month-old baby boy, died days later from a stab wound. The AWOL soldier is believed to have been trying to desert. He
broke into a random house to get food and went on a killing
rampage after being found by the owners, according to media
reports.
“At a meeting in Yerevan, representatives from the Armenian and Russian investigations… agreed on a coordinated effort to conduct a comprehensive investigation,” Sona Tryzyan, spokeswoman for the Armenian Investigative Committee, announced on Tuesday.
Aleksandr
Bastrykin, who heads the Russian Investigative Committee, assured that
both the prosecution and trial of the suspect would be held in Armenia,
in accordance with international law and bilateral agreements between
the two countries. The Russian official is currently visiting Armenia to
tackle the fallout following the tragic incident. READ MORE:
Protesters demand Russian soldier’s trial in Armenia, clash with police
The high-profile crime caused uproar in Armenia and a massive rally
gathered in front of the Russian Consulate last Thursday. The protesters
demanded that Permyakov be handed over and brought to justice in
Armenia. The rally became violent when demonstrators started pelting
police officers guarding the base with stones and other projectiles. In
the ensuing clash, 26 people, most of them police officers, were
injured. Permyakov was arrested the day after the massacre as he was
trying to cross the border with Turkey. Russian border guards, who are
helping their Armenian colleagues to patrol its borders, captured the
man and handed him over to the base, where he is currently being held in
custody.
Source: http://rt.com/news/224427-armenia-soldier-killing-trial/
44% of Russians say man charged with killing family in Gyumri should be tried in Armenia
Sixty-eight percent of Russians are aware of the mass killing in Gyumri and the developments that followed, while 32 % have not heard about the incident, according to a study conducted by the Levada analytical center. 48% of those, who have heard about the crime, consider that the case should be investigated jointly by Armenian and Russian law-enforcement bodies, 42% say it should be the Russian court, but the trial should be held on the territory of Armenia (44%). Twenty-five percent of those surveyed said the investigation should be carried out by Russian law-enforcers, 21% consider the probe should be conducted by Armenians. Thirty-seven percent said the criminal should be tried by the Armenian court. The study was conducted from January 23 to 26 among 1,600 people in 134 regions of Russia. Remind that Russian soldier Valery Permyakov is the only suspect in the slaying of a family of seven in Gyumri on January 12.
Source: http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/02/02/44-of-russians-say-man-charged-with-killing-family-in-gyumri-should-be-tried-in-armenia/
Armenia and Russia Will Overcome the Tragedy of Gyumri Together: Ivan Volinkin
In an interview with “Россия 24”, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Armenia Ivan Volinkin declared that Armenia and Russia share the pain of the tragedy that took place in Gyumri on 12 January and that there is no justification for such barbarity and it doesn’t recognize any state or nationality. As “Armenpress” reports, citing Interfax, Volinkin mentioned that he had trouble finding the words to describe what happened. “The employees of the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Armenia were shocked when they found out what had happened. It became a pain and tragedy for both the Armenians and the Russians. I understand and accept the society’s sentimentality towards the incident. I would like to express once again my condolences to the relatives of the victims, the citizens of Gyumri and the entire Armenian nation,” the Ambassador said. He stressed the fact that the corresponding Armenian and Russian authorities are jointly carrying out the investigation into the case. “The investigation has to be objective and comprehensive. I’m certain that the criminal will be punished by the law. There have been difficult times in the centuries-old history of the Armenian-Russian friendship, but we have always managed to overcome the difficulties through combined efforts and by supporting each other. I believe that will be the case this time as well,” Ivan Volinkin underscored.
Russia Begins WMD Defense Drills in Armenia and Crimea
Large-scale
exercises of Russian radiation, chemical, and biological
defense troops have started on seven firing ranges in Russia's Southern
Military Region, as well as the Crimean Peninsula and Armenia, Russia's
news agency RIA-Novosti reports. A total of 1,700 military personnel and
more than 350 pieces
of military hardware are taking part in the war games, according to the
press service of the Southern Military Region. "Large-scale field
exercises of radiation, chemical, and biological
defense specialists began on seven firing ranges of the Southern
Military Region, including in the Volgograd region, Stavropol and
Krasnodar regions, Republic of Crimea, North Ossetia and Armenia. The
drills involve units from the Southern Military District, the Black Sea
Fleet, the Caspian Flotilla, as well as the 4th Air Force Command and
Air Defense," the press service said. During the exercises, the troops
will drill prepare themselves using
the most advanced military equipment, which was put in service in the
Russian army in 2012. The equipment includes a RHM-6 chemical
reconnaissance vehicle, which
is designed to remotely detect toxic and casualty-producing substances.
The drills also involve the ARS-14KM mobile spray station, the TDA-2K
engine smoke generating system, the BMO-T heavy armored personnel
carrier equipped with flame throwers and the TOS-1A Buratino heavy
flame throwing system attached to the chassis of a T-72 main battle
tank, according to the press service.
Paul Goble: Gyumri Events Could Spark a New War over Karabakh
The murder of
an Armenian family in Gyumri by a Russian soldier and the failure of Yerevan to
stand up to Moscow about his trial have outraged Armenians and led some experts
like Igor Muradyan to say that Russia “is losing Armenia,” its primary ally in
the South Caucasus (ekhokavkaza.com/content/article/26798215.html). And that in turn has led some analysts
to suggest that Moscow might be interested in a new outbreak of the Nagorno-Karabakh
war between Armenia and Azerbaijan to remind Armenians and Yerevan about Russia’s
key role in restraining an ever more powerful Azerbaijan from retaking those
regions and thus helping Armenia maintain its control over them.
In a comment to Slon.ru yesterday, Mikhail Zygar, the chief editor of Russia’s independent television channel “Dozhd,” said that Moscow will not make the concessions Yerevan is demanding – handing the soldier over to Armenian courts or ensuring an open trial – because under the Russian constitution it doesn’t have to (slon.ru/insights/1205915/). But the real explanation for why Russia is behaving in a way that is infuriating its last ally in the south Caucasus and one of the few on the territory of the former Soviet space, Zygar says, is geoolitical situation which Armenia finds itself in – and which, although he does not say so, Moscow is all too ready to highlight when it thinks it needs to.
“One need not be a great expert on Armenian-Russian relations,” he continues, to find the answer to Russian behavior which may seem “at first glance” strange. And it is this: “The [Russian] military base in Gyumri is the foundation of Armenian security. More precisely, it is a guarantee that Azerbaijan will not attack Armenia and try to recover Nagorno-Karabakh.” He continues: “The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh ended 20 years ago in 1994. Armenia did not simply win it; it destroyed the Azerbaijani army and occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and several Azerbaijani districts which separated the territory of the autonomous republic from the territory of Armenia.” At that time, Zygar says, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was “proclaimed,” but formally it has not been “recognized by anyone since then, including Armenia itself.”
Over the course of the last two
decades, “a great deal has changed. Azerbaijan has been transformed into a
wealthy oil producing country, and in the fat years of the last decade a
generation of Azerbaijanis who live with the dream of sooner or later
recovering” the territories their country lost earlier.
While there is a ceasefire in place, “the undeclared war
with Armenia and constant exchanges of fire on the border are the reality of
the last two decades,” Zygar says. And
he reminds everyone that the slogan “’Karabakh is Ours’” is a much more central
aspect of Azerbaijani identity than Crimean ever was or ever will be for
Russia.
That Moscow might want to remind Armenians of that
reality is thus plausible, but there is the danger that some in Yerevan might
be inclined to go along and launch what they might think would be “a short
victorious war” in order to save their own positions even or perhaps especially
because that would solidify their relations with Russia.
As one Armenian human rights activist, Artur Sakunts,
told “Nezavisimaya gazeta,” the problems at Gyumri are longstanding and have
their roots in “the absence of the necessary level of control over the base by
the Armenian authorities,” thus fueling anti-regime attitudes in Yerevan by
highlighting its subordination to Moscow (ng.ru/politics/2015-01-20/3_gumri.html). No one is saying that either Moscow or Yerevan
will start a war, but it is clear that both the Russian government and its
Armenian counterpart might see such a conflict as in its interests, and that
alone justifies concerns that the events in Gyumri may lead to more violence
and claim more victims in the near future.
Moscow Agrees to Try Gyumri Killer in Armenia but in a Russian Court
Fearful that Armenian anger could lead to a break with Moscow or
even spark an orange-style revolution in Yerevan, Moscow has agreed that
the Russian soldier who has now confessed to killing an Armenian family
in Gyurmri will be tried in Armenia but in a Russian court with Russian
laws.
Whether that concession will be sufficient to calm Armenian outrage
at this murder is unclear, but it is already angering some Russians who
view what Moscow has done as a violation of the Constitution’s
declaration that Moscow won’t take such steps and who fear this will
open the door to more Russian concessions not only in Armenia but
elsewhere.
After meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan earlier this
week, Aleksandr Bastrykin, the head of the Investigations Committee of
Russia, said that Valery Permyakov’s trial would take place in Gyumri
and not in Russia as many Armenians feared but that it would be in a
Russian court and under Russian laws (regnum.ru/news/polit/1886393.html). That decision became easier for Moscow to make after Permyakov
confessed, but it has done to calm anger among Russians who fear that
this is “a dangerous precedent which may force Russia every time to hand
over its soldiers into the hands of the courts of another country,”
Regnum reports, and may have done little to calm anger among Armenians
about the case.
Indeed, there are indications that Armenian officials plan to exploit
this Russian concession as much as possible. The Investigation
Committee of Armenia has already filed charges against Permyakov,
something that might seem irrelevant if a Russian court is going to
judge him (inforesist.org/rossijskij-voennosluzhashhij-permyakov-priznal-svoyu-vinu-v-ubijstve-armyanskoj-semi/).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said yesterday that outsiders
are trying to “politicize” the case, adding that in his view “the proud
Armenian people will never fall for such provocations” because
“everything needed for the investigation of this tragedy will be done”
and as a result “Russian-Armenian relations will not suffer” (regnum.ru/news/polit/1886572.html).
But others are not so sure, either that the source of the problem is
“outside provocations” or that it is going to be as easily resolved as
Lavrov clearly hopes it will be. In a commentary for Profile.ru, Ivan
Sukhov says that Russian analysts are increasingly making a distinction
between Sargsyan and the Armenian people (profile.ru/eks-sssr/item/91386-proshel-soldat-po-gorodu).
Sargsyan remains committed to an alliance with Moscow, Sukhov says
Russian specialists say, but his silence at the time of the Gyumri crime
has cost him and Moscow support in the Armenian population, an
increasing number of whom won’t vote for him in upcoming elections. And
that could trigger a radical shift in Armenia’s position both at home
and abroad.
And
events in Armenia could move even more rapidly along the
trajectory Georgia already passed, something that would not be in
Moscow’s interests but something for which Russia must now be prepared.
Hence its concessions over the handling of Permyakov, but these may not
be nearly enough. This piece was written by an American writer and
analyst on Eurasia Paul Goble. This post was initially published on his blog on January 22.
Chilingarov, Kiselev pay floral tribute to family slain in Gyumri
Legendary polar explorer and Hero of the Soviet Union and Russia Arthur Cghilingarov, who is also a statesman and political activist, and Dmitry Kiselev, Russia Today International News Agency CEO, paid today floral tribute to the family killed in Gyumri, Novosti-Armenia reports referring to RIA Novosti. Six members of the family were killed in shooting on January 12 and a six-month baby was wounded and died one week later in a hospital. Valery Permyakov, a Russian conscript soldier suspected of committing this crime, is now in custody pending trial. He has confessed his guilt.
«Dmitry Kiselev and I could not fail to visit Gyumri while in Armenia and express our sorrow and sympathy,» Chilingarov said. «A horrible tragedy. No mercy to the monster who has committed this crime!» Chilingarov said a lesson should be learned from this tragedy to prevent repetition. «We, representatives of Russia, should stress that we mourn these deaths with Armenia. I understand that we are fraternal nations and we need more frequent meetings, since we know how Armenians treat Russians and how Russians treat Armenians and these relations should be supported at all levels...» Kiselev, on his side, said that what happened in Gyumri made him restless.
«I have many Armenian friends,» he said. «On behalf of the Griboyedov Club I have founded, I say that everybody was overtaken by indignation, especially given our ties and friendship. Russians are especially hard pressed, since additional burden is laid upon us... Feeling of protest and wish to distance ourselves from the perpetrator of this crime come over us, since Permyakov is Russian, but, as it is known, there is a black sheep in every fold.» Kiselev said that tension in Russian-Armenian relations emerged as a result of certain manipulations and people wanting reap fruits from grief are found everywhere. «Somebody finds an outlet for own energy, somebody maybe earns money from this and somebody is unhappy about strong ties between Russia and Armenia,» he said adding that Armenians and Russians should stand or fall together.
Speaking about some fears that the investigation is running slowly, Kiselev said such crimes are not investigated in one or two months and there is no need to spur anybody. «I understand that emotionally it would be better to clear up everything as soon as possible, but we don't like mob rule,» he said. «That is why we should be patient and consider this period as mourning time and refrain from hurling accusations.» Kiselev said that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a very careful inquiry.
Source: http://arka.am/en/news/society
Legendary
polar explorer and Hero of the Soviet Union and Russia Arthur
Cghilingarov, who is also a statesman and political activist, and Dmitry
Kiselev, Russia Today International News Agency CEO, paid today floral
tribute to the family killed in Gyumri, Novosti-Armenia reports
referring to RIA Novosti.
Six members of the family were killed in shooting on January 12 and
a six-month baby was wounded and died one week later in a hospital.
Valery Permyakov, a Russian conscript soldier suspected of committing
this crime, is now in custody pending trial.
He has confessed his guilt. «Dmitry Kiselev and I could not fail to
visit Gyumri while in Armenia and express our sorrow and sympathy,»
Chilingarov said. «A horrible tragedy. No mercy to the monster who has
committed this crime!»
Chilingarov said a lesson should be learned from this tragedy to prevent repetition.
«We, representatives of Russia, should stress that we mourn these
deaths with Armenia. I understand that we are fraternal nations and we
need more frequent meetings, since we know how Armenians treat Russians
and how Russians treat Armenians and these relations should be supported
at all levels...»
Kiselev, on his side, said that what happened in Gyumri made him
restless. «I have many Armenian friends,» he said. «On behalf of the
Griboyedov Club I have founded, I say that everybody was overtaken by
indignation, especially given our ties and friendship. Russians are
especially hard pressed, since additional burden is laid upon us...
Feeling of protest and wish to distance ourselves from the perpetrator
of this crime come over us, since Permyakov is Russian, but, as it is
known, there is a black sheep in every fold.»
Kiselev said that tension in Russian-Armenian relations emerged as a
result of certain manipulations and people wanting reap fruits from
grief are found everywhere.
«Somebody finds an outlet for own energy, somebody maybe earns
money from this and somebody is unhappy about strong ties between Russia
and Armenia,» he said adding that Armenians and Russians should stand
or fall together.
Speaking about some fears that the investigation is running slowly,
Kiselev said such crimes are not investigated in one or two months and
there is no need to spur anybody.
«I understand that emotionally it would be better to clear up
everything as soon as possible, but we don't like mob rule,» he said.
«That is why we should be patient and consider this period as mourning
time and refrain from hurling accusations.»
Kiselev said that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a very careful inquiry.
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Kosachev: 350 Armenian NGOs Spread Propaganda Against EEU
The republics of the South Caucasus are important for Russia, each in its own way. This is what Head of the International Committee of the Federal Council of the Russian Federation Konstantin Kosachev declared during a February 26 press conference in Moscow, as “Armenpress” reports, citing RIA Novosti. “Russia is interested in establishing peace and stability in the region,” the politician said. According to him, whereas Azerbaijan is Russia’s major partner in trade, economy and politics, Armenia is Russia’s close partner. “We’re together not only within the CIS, but also within the CSTO, and now within the Eurasian Economic Union,” Kosachev said. Kosachev informed that nearly 350 Armenian non-governmental organizations spread propaganda against accession to the Eurasian Economic Union and are in favor of Armenia’s accession to the EU within the Eastern Partnership Plan. The senator voiced hope that Armenia would be able to avoid the attempt to make such a choice. “I hope Russia and Armenia will maintain the alliance and friendly relations spanning years and centuries, just like it was in the past,” Kosachev said.
Source: http://armenpress.am/eng/news/795681/armenia-is-russia%E2%80%99s-close-partner-kosachev.html
German Ambassador Shmidt: "Armenians are Russian slaves"
A lawmaker of Armenia’s ruling political force has called for
explanations from a former German ambassador for a recent remark
comparing the Armenian-Russian alliance with relations between a master
and slave.
Speaking to Tert.am, Arman Sahakyan of the Republican parliamentary faction recalled historic records proving that the 1.5 million Armenians’ WWI-era massacre in the Ottoman Empire was caused by what he described as Germany’s guilty inaction. Sahakyan said he finds that the Germans have the wrong understanding of their national ideas and ideology. “Two thousand more Armenians were killed to liberate the world from the fascist evil. So I think Germany’s incumbent ambassador has to make clarifications to shed light on his predecessor's expressions,” said the Republican MP.
Speaking to Tert.am, Arman Sahakyan of the Republican parliamentary faction recalled historic records proving that the 1.5 million Armenians’ WWI-era massacre in the Ottoman Empire was caused by what he described as Germany’s guilty inaction. Sahakyan said he finds that the Germans have the wrong understanding of their national ideas and ideology. “Two thousand more Armenians were killed to liberate the world from the fascist evil. So I think Germany’s incumbent ambassador has to make clarifications to shed light on his predecessor's expressions,” said the Republican MP.
In a recent interview with the Gyumri-based TV channel GALA, Ambassador Hans-Joshem Shmidt referred to prominent works by Russian classics (Pushkin, Lermontov), describing the Caucasus region as a territory belonging to Russia, with the Armenians being slaves to Russian masters. Sahakyan, who is a single-seat MP elected from second largest city, said he does not see any connection between the statement and the recent brutal family murder in Gyumri.
“What happened was a tremendous tragedy, and we unfortunately will not return those killed, but I think this is a problem between us and Russia alone; it has [to be resolved] by the two countries’ law enforcers,” he said, recommending against dropping historical hints. Asked whether he observes any disharmony and estrangement between the city’s Russian military base and the population in the wake of the tragic incident, Sahakyan didn’t deny a certain degree of tension but said he hopes the passions will little by little calm down.
“This cannot remain without consequence, so naturally a certain revolt and just demand has really matured. But I think we’ll manage to restore the Gyumri people’s sense of honor in the course of time,” he said.
Russian Activists Ask Putin to Send Troops Into Armenia
Online
activists have leapt to the defense of a Russian
soldier who has reportedly confessed to killing six members of an
Armenian family, calling on President Vladimir Putin to "send in the
troops" to protect all Russian-speakers in the Transcaucasian country.
The activists, commenting through their social media group "Anti-Maidan — Armenia,"
declared soldier Valery Permyakov to be "under Russia's protection"
and called for the use of force to combat Armenians who want him to face
trial in their country. Of note, the group's name recalls the political protests
on Kiev's Maidan Square that led to the overthrow of Ukraine's
Moscow-backed administration last February. In the weeks that followed,
Russia sent its troops into Crimea — ostensibly to protect
Russian-speakers in the region.
"Our president has clearly stated: We shall defend our
compatriots everywhere! In every place on the globe," the group wrote
on its VKontakte social network page. "And Valera [Permyakov] is no
exception."
Thousands of Armenian protesters took to the streets last
week, demanding that Russian authorities hand over Permyakov — a soldier
at a military base in Gyumri who police say has confessed to killing
six people, including a two-year-old girl. A six-month-old boy was also
wounded in the attack, which took place last Monday, but he survived. The "Anti-Maidan — Armenia" group responded to last week's
demonstrations by calling the protesters "Nazis" — the same term that
Moscow's politicians and state-run media had used to refer to the
opposition in Ukraine.
"Putin, send in the troops!" the group said on VKontakte.
"All of the Russian-speaking population in Armenia is now in danger!"
The group also proclaimed: "Russia is Permyakov, and Permyakov is
Russia."
It
was not immediately clear whether the group was created
for satirical purposes, but the posts drew outrage from opposition
Russian politician Boris Nemtsov. "When the Anti-Maidan pro-Kremlin
movement declares
Permyakov … to be 'a prisoner of conscience' what are they counting on?"
Nemtsov said on his Facebook page last week. "On the love of the
Armenian people? Or on seeing Russians cursed even by the citizens
of Armenia who have so far been friendly?" Nemtsov also suggested that
the group was aiming to incite a conflict, while the "Kremlin is
silently condoning them."
'Prisoner of Conscience'
Armenia,
like Georgia and Ukraine, is among the former Soviet states that had
traditionally enjoyed close ties with Russia. But in recent years,
Russia has fought a war against Georgia
over its pro-Russian separatist regions, and annexed Crimea
from Ukraine under the guise of protecting the peninsula's
Russian-speaking population. The developments have soured Georgia's
and Ukraine's
relations with Russia, and Armenian lawmakers said last week that
the Gyumri killing would likely spark debate about Russia's military
presence in the country.
According to a statement posted Sunday on the Kremlin
website, Putin has spoken with Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan
to express his condolences and offer assurances that the "those
responsible would receive the punishment envisaged by law." Yet there was no direct reference to Permyakov in the
Kremlin's statement, and there appears to be some disagreement on the
legal issues surrounding his possible handing over to Armenian
authorities. Nemtsov, the opposition politician, cited a 1997 agreement
between Moscow and Yerevan, which seems to indicate that Russian
military personnel charged with committing crimes in Armenia should be
tried by Armenian courts.
"In cases of crimes and other offenses committed on the
territory of the Republic of Armenia by individuals who are members
of the Russian military base and their families, the laws of the
Republic of Armenia are applied, and its competent organs will take
action," the agreement reads, according to the text posted on the
Russian Foreign Ministry website. But the Armenian Prosecutor General's Office said last week
that under Russia's Constitution, Russian citizens detained by Russian
authorities on suspicion of having committed a crime cannot be handed
over to another country, the Interfax news agency reported. Nemtsov argued that Armenian demonstrators demands — that
Russia deliver on the international agreements it had signed — were
"perfectly legal."
"But Permyakov has not been handed over, and [he has] even
been proclaimed 'a prisoner of conscience,'" he said. "And then we show
surprise that everybody around hates us." The "prisoner of conscience" phrase appears to originate
from an earlier post on the "Anti-Maidan — Armenia" group on VKontakte,
which used the term to describe the suspected killer, according to a
screen-grab posted by Nemtsov. The group has since toned down its language, and now runs
a different caption under the same picture that reads: "Valery
Permyakov: Killer or victim?"
Yet it remains defiant in its attempts to blame the Armenian
protests on the U.S. while calling for Moscow to respond in order
to maintain its hold on the region. "Accusing a Russian warrior profits only two forces —
the U.S. and their subordinate Armenian opposition, which has already
managed to put forward demands to close the Russian military base,"
the group said on its VKontakte page.
Russia Is Losing Friends and Alienating Peoples
Russian politicians constantly claim that the former Soviet
republics are a foreign policy priority. Moscow devotes considerable
attention and spends huge sums of money maintaining the Commonwealth
of Independent States, the Collective Security Treaty Organization,
the Eurasian Economic Union and the Eurasian Customs Union. However,
this increasingly begs the question of what actual benefit they provide
for their members. Let's start with the purely political alliances. It is well
known that the CIS was originally viewed as a form of "civilized
divorce" between the former Soviet republics. That was largely true,
except in the cases of Georgia and Ukraine, which withdrew under
circumstances that could hardly be considered civilized.
By contrast, the CSTO was established as a voluntary
organization with seemingly clear objectives. But what result do we see
now? Over the last 10 years, the organization conducted more than
15 large-scale joint military exercises aimed at combatting terrorism
and extremism, but where was the organization when, for example,
Kyrgyzstan came to the brink of a full-scale civil war in 2010? Did a contingent of CSTO troops deploy to Osh to prevent
the massacre of civilians? No. Did the CSTO member states at least
formulate and agree on a common position regarding the Kyrgyz problem?
Again, no. In recent years Russia twice deployed its troops to the
territory of neighboring states — in 2008 to South Ossetia, then a part
of Georgia, and in 2014 to Crimea, then a part of Ukraine. Borders
changed, but did any of Russia's allies officially recognize those
changes? Not one.
Did
the CSTO member states at least formulate a common position regarding
the Ukrainian crisis? No, again. In fact, conflicts are gaining steam
between the post-Soviet
republics. Armenia and Azerbaijan have practically been at war since
November 2014. What type of alliances are possible when prospective
members are at war with each other?
The problem is that concerted action is very much needed. However much Russian leaders deride NATO, there is no denying that even after the end of the Cold War its member states conducted dozens of joint maneuvers, it possesses a highly capable military command and, despite some enduring tensions between Greece and Turkey, the alliance members operate as a unified whole on foreign and defense policy matters.
The West unquestionably has common goals and values, along
with mechanisms for projecting them in the world. But what does Russia
have that would unite it with potential allies other than some vague
fear of the outside world? Russia's economic unions look no more convincing. Any form
of integration first requires certain concessions or accommodations
on the part of its initiators before it can bear fruit. But Russia's unabashed attempt to buy the friendship
of Belarus and Armenia is not a promising form of cooperation — much
less the brutal military operations designed to compel Ukraine
into alliance.
Of course, even the closest allies can disagree at times, as
the United States and Europe often do. However, reliable cooperation
requires a solid foundation, and in the case of the West, it comes
in the form of $1.1 trillion in annual bilateral trade and mutual
investment totaling $3.8 trillion. For years, Kazakhstan was the chief advocate of Eurasian
integration, but after the first 10 months of 2014, its share of exports
to other members of the Customs Union had fallen to 6.1 percent
from 11.8 percent in 2010. In 2011, President Vladimir Putin made
the case that over the next five years the Customs Union and the
Eurasian Economic Union would account for 15 percent of member
countries' gross domestic products — or roughly $300 billion in trade.
If that is true, was it worth sacrificing those
organizations to impose a ban on $6 billion worth of European foods
imported to Russia — for the sake of which Russia now intercepts
consignments of foods sent from Belarus to Kazakhstan, even with
the probability that those products will never reach their destination,
or else will return home bearing new labels? And if it is worth it, were
Putin's earlier arguments of its benefits just banal pre-election
promises — or has everyone completely forgotten how to calculate profit
and loss? At the same time, successful economic unions always follow
the principle of unity in diversity. For example, countries with
practically "socialist" economic models co-exist alongside those with
very liberal economies.
However, Moscow will only cooperate with states that accept
Russia's economic model of nationalization — a model that has proven
ineffective in recent years. Moreover, Moscow ultimately turns its back on any state that
does not want to end up like Russia, in what Putin euphemistically
described as "the trap of zero growth." That is no way to form
an alliance. People become friends when they share common values,
interests and world views. In working toward common goals, friends
support each other and strengthen their relationship. In the same way,
when the members of international alliances share a common ideology
and values, and when they are prepared to come to each other's aid, it creates a stable union.
Russia, on the other hand, seems patently incapable
of making friends. It prefers an overbearing and ostentatious show
of love — and not even with a real partner, but with an imaginary image
of that partner. Nothing better describes what happened this year between
Russia and Ukraine than these lyrics from a famous romantic song
by Alexander Malinin: "Surrender lovely creature. I declare my love
for you!" Such "romances" might make for great melodrama, but they
cannot build a stable alliance or improve strained relations. If Russia really wants to undertake the difficult but
theoretically feasible task of consolidating the former Soviet
republics, it should, on one hand, reflect on the ideology and values
at the core of such a project, and on the other hand, about how
to improve the effectiveness of the Russian economic system as it stands
today.
Both tasks are extremely difficult. This is first because
Russia is turning away from the Soviet universal model that was clearly
focused on the future to an incredibly narrow one fixated on its Soviet
past. Integration is built on overcoming history, not reconstructing it. And second, it is because Russia's elite have become
accustomed to offering their loyalty in return for immediate gain, but
are not accustomed to considering the long-term "profitability" of such
transactions.That will lead Moscow officials to become frustrated with
integration and, in turn, trigger frustration among its partners. That
will ultimate destroy an otherwise worthwhile, if not vitally necessary,
project. In the end, unions and alliances that are not based
on common values cost far more than they are worth and deliver little
more than mutual disappointment.
Trouble At Home and "Near Abroad"
On January 13, Russian troops stationed on the Turkey-Armenia border
apprehended Private Valery Permyakov. The previous day, Permyakov, a
Russian soldier, deserted his base in the Armenian city of Gyumri and
killed six members of a local family. A seventh victim, an infant boy,
initially survived but succumbed to his injuries on January 19. The
murders sparked unprecedented protests in Gyumri and the capital city of
Yerevan, and new demonstrations are still being planned. Despite the
emotional response, the killings and demonstrations are unlikely to
damage Armenia’s strong ties to Moscow.
Valery Permyakov’s base at Gyumri hosts over 3,000 Russian soldiers
along with fighter jets, tanks, and other hardware. Gyumri, like most of
Russia’s foreign military installations,
is located within the borders of the former Soviet Union. Moscow’s
presence in these areas was a given until the U.S.S.R. dissolved 23
years ago. Accordingly, few in the post-Soviet republics (what Russia
refers to as the “near abroad”) question
Russian deployments there. This is especially true in Armenia. Dr.
Yevgenya Paturyan, who teaches at the American University of Armenia,
concluded that, “the pro-Russian attitude has a lot to do with the Armenian Genocide.”
According to Dr. Paturyan, “Turkey is perceived by almost any Armenian
as an archenemy,” because of the genocide. “Turkey is a member of NATO,
hence NATO is an enemy. Russia opposes NATO. An enemy of my enemy is my
friend. This is how the average Armenian thinks.” It follows that
criticism of Russia is rare in the political arena. Davit Sanasaryan is
the spokesman for Heritage, an opposition party in Armenia’s National
Assembly. He told World Policy Journal that, “Heritage is the
only political party which always was against deployment of Russian
military bases in Armenia.” He believes Moscow’s presence, “endangers
and threatens, first of all, our [Armenia’s] independence.”
Indeed, while Armenia officially achieved statehood in 1991, its membership in Kremlin-led integration projects like the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union
preserve many old economic, political, and security networks. This
reality made January’s protests surprising. However, the demonstrations
obscure Armenia’s need for its Russian sponsor. Dr. Vahram
Ter-Matevosyan of the American University of Armenia studies regional
security in the South Caucasus. He cited the, “Karabakh conflict, blockade imposed by Turkey and the increasing number of Armenians
in Russia," as defining Armenia's relations with Moscow. “No doubt,
each of these categories have a dozen subcategories,” Ter-Matevosyan
added, “and all of them are merged into one word – security.”
Armenia’s geopolitical position and security needs restrict its
options in handling the Gyumri murders.
Armenia is a landlocked country
located on the periphery of three powerful states—Turkey, Iran, and
Russia. Two of Armenia’s neighbors, Azerbaijan and Turkey, are
unfriendly states. The Nagorno-Karabakh War against Azerbaijan left
Yerevan isolated in its own neighborhood. Now, Armenia’s eastern and
western borders are closed and regional infrastructure projects
deliberately bypass the country. The dispute with Baku persists and recent military escalation make
lasting resolution an increasingly distant prospect. This perpetuates
Armenia's political and economic estrangement. Such conditions make
simple practices like trade and energy supply difficult. Armenia
compensates with Russian gas and energy systems, but this too comes at a
cost: Moscow controls around 80 percent of Armenia’s energy infrastructure, tying Yerevan even closer to the Kremlin.
Although Russia is Armenia’s primary political and military patron,
Moscow also arms Azerbaijan, a policy that fuels Armenian insecurity.
While most other countries would seek a more reliable ally, Yerevan has
no such option. Though Armenia maintains friendly ties with neighboring
Iran, the Islamic Republic cannot fill the Russian Federation’s security
role in the South Caucasus. Tehran can serve as a transit point for
Armenian trade to reach foreign markets, but it has limited strategic
aims outside of the Middle East. Iran shares good relations with Russia,
and is unlikely to challenge an ally in its own backyard. The West is
also not a viable option. In 2008, France and Germany promised to block
Armenia’s neighbor Georgia from joining NATO. Given this opposition, it
is unlikely that Western governments would offer Armenia similar
protection. Rejecting Tbilisi’s NATO bid was tacit recognition that the
South Caucasus is still largely a Russian neighborhood, and that any
further Western involvement in the region means confrontation with
Moscow.
During the demonstrations in Gyumri and Yerevan, some protesters made an unprecedented call
for the Russians to evacuate Armenian territory. Most demanded that an
Armenian court try Valery Permyakov. Activists cited a 1997
Russia-Armenia agreement which stipulates that, “In cases of crimes
and other offenses committed on the territory of the Republic of Armenia
by individuals who are members of the Russian military base and their
families, the laws of the Republic of Armenia are applied, and its
competent organs will take action.” Heritage’s Davit Sanasaryan
denounced Yerevan for allowing Russia to try Permyakov and blamed the
government for failing to restore calm. “The President of Armenia must
immediately demand the leadership of Russia transfer Valery Permyakov’s
case,” Sanasaryan told World Policy Journal. “The authorities of Armenia,” he remarked critically, “are thinking about not offending the Kremlin.”
Much to the ire of the protesters and the parliamentary opposition, a
Russian court will be trying Permyakov, albeit on Armenian soil. The
United States similarly overruled Afghan officials who wanted to try
American soldiers accused of crimes against their citizens. As with
Armenia, international security and political dependence shaped
Afghanistan’s domestic affairs. However humiliating the Armenian people
view Moscow's behavior to be, Yerevan’s geopolitical position may force
the government’s hand in dealing with Russia and demonstrators. On
January 28, Armenian police declared that protest organizers could face
prosecution. In this tense atmosphere, Dr. Yevgenya Paturyan fears the
situation might “break into a storm at any time.” She cautioned that,
“if the final decision on Permyakov’s case will judged by Armenians as
unsatisfactory, there will be another round of unrest.”
Increased friction between the Armenian authorities and the public
could threaten Yerevan’s domestic popularity. While the Armenian
government’s popularity may fluctuate, one thing promises to remain
constant in the small South Caucasus nation, as it has for almost two
centuries: Russia.
Source: http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2015/02/05/trouble-home-and-near-abroad
Stratfor: Belarus and Armenia Re-Evaluate Relations with Russia
Summary
Recent developments indicate that two of Moscow's most loyal allies in the former Soviet periphery, Belarus and Armenia, may be reassessing their ties with Russia in light of the country's standoff with the West. During a Jan. 29 press conference, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said that Minsk could pull out of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union if agreements are not kept, but also emphasized that the country's integration with Russia is deep and strong. Meanwhile, Armenia has faced growing difficulties in its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia plays a key role. Both countries are likely to maintain their strategic orientation toward Russia, but Belarus and Armenia will continuously re-evaluate their positions depending on how the broader struggle between Moscow and the West plays out.
Analysis
The crisis in Ukraine
has had far-reaching repercussions. Relations between Russia and the
West are at their lowest point since the Cold War. Sanctions related to
the crisis, along with a sizable drop in global oil prices, have weakened Russia's economy severely.
Moreover, the crisis has brought Ukraine and other former Soviet
countries closer to Western institutions. Ukraine is receiving
increasing economic and security support from the West; NATO has increased troop rotations and military exercises in the Baltic states; and Moldova and Georgia have joined Ukraine in signing EU association and free trade agreements.
Even Azerbaijan, which traditionally has balanced between Russia and
the West, is being courted to expand energy ties with the European Union
via the Southern Corridor route. Within Eastern Europe and the Caucasus — the two regions that the European Union's Eastern Partnership program specifically targeted — only two countries remain aligned with Russia: Belarus and Armenia. Both countries have grown closer to Russia following the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, becoming members of the Eurasian Economic Union that
launched at the start of 2015. Both states have also emphasized their
strategic alignment with Russia, particularly regarding military and
security issues. Yet Belarus and Armenia may increasingly hedge their
positions as tension between Russia and the West continues to climb.
Belarus' Calculations
In
Belarus, Lukashenko's government has long been at odds with the
West. The European Union and United States imposed sanctions on Belarus
following the country's controversial elections in 2010, during which
security forces cracked down on anti-Lukashenko demonstrations. Belarus
was also the first and most vocal country in rebuffing the European
Union's Eastern Partnership program; Lukashenko saw the initiative as a
way to promote democracy and undermine his political position at home.
Yet since the ouster of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich
who — like Lukashenko — the West saw as an overly authoritarian,
pro-Russian figure, the Belarusian president has adjusted his position
regarding the European Union and United States. Lukashenko made Belarus a key mediator in negotiations between Russia
and the West over Ukraine. Belarus also has cautiously opened a
political dialogue with many Western countries, leading to a notable increase in economic deals between Minsk and several EU countries.
Simultaneously, Moscow's growing financial woes and periodic economic
disputes between Belarus and Russia have caused Lukashenko concern. In
his Jan. 29 press conference, Lukashenko emphasized that though economic
integration between the two countries is strong, trade wars within the
Eurasian Economic Union cannot be allowed, and that Minsk does not
exclude leaving the bloc if "agreements in it are not kept." Still,
Russia's ability and willingness to provide financial assistance to
Belarus — Moscow is slated to give Minsk around $1 billion this year —
are critical.
In addition, Belarus adopted legislation Jan. 26 that would consider
the appearance of any armed foreign fighters on the country's soil a
declaration of war, regardless of whether they are official military
troops or not. The context for this legislation is clearly the Ukraine
conflict, where volunteer fighters and non-official participants have
fought on both sides. For example, the Ukrainian security forces have
been accompanied by volunteer battalions, including fighters from
foreign countries such as Poland or Georgia — a worrying sign for
Lukashenko. The new legislation also prompted media speculation that the
new law is directed toward Russia, given the presence of "little green
men" — the unmarked and unofficial Russian military personnel fighting in Ukraine.
However, Lukashenko is not likely concerned about Russia, since Russian
troops are already stationed in Belarus and a new Russian airbase is
set to open in the country in 2016.
Lukashenko clearly has become concerned about his position, especially as fighting flares up once again in eastern Ukraine.
With military buildups growing near Belarus' borders to the east and
west, a spillover of violence from either direction cannot be ruled out.
More important, the West's continued calls for political reforms have
Lukashenko worried that Western countries could increase pressure on his
government, just as Russia is becoming increasingly alienated from the
West and as presidential elections set for the end of 2015 draw closer.
But Belarus is a strategic asset for Russia, especially with Ukraine in
limbo and the Baltic states in NATO. Belarus has so far maintained its
strategic alignment with Russia, but this year will shape Lukashenko's
political position domestically and in the country's careful maneuvering
between Moscow and the West.
Armenia's Concerns
Armenia has long been strategically aligned with Russia. A key driver
behind Yerevan's orientation toward Moscow is Armenia's conflict with
Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
After Armenia defeated Azerbaijan in a six-year war over the region,
Russia became Armenia's de facto security guarantor. The 5,000 Russian
troops stationed in Armenia have served to check Azerbaijan's ambitions
to reclaim the territory and also to guard Armenia's borders with the
larger Caucasus powers of Turkey and Iran. However, the Ukraine crisis has affected the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.
Fighting has increased along the line of contact between
Armenia and Azerbaijan; violence spiked in August 2014, and in November
2014 Azerbaijani forces shot down an Armenian helicopter. Azerbaijan has
gained more room to maneuver in the conflict because of its
sought-after energy resources and Russia's focus on the Ukrainian
theater. These factors have caused Armenia to question Russia's
commitment as a security guarantor, especially concerning Moscow's lack
of response to the helicopter shoot-down. Armenia has not launched any
major reprisal attacks, and on Jan. 27 Armenian Defense Minister Seyran
Ohanian admitted that the helicopter that was shot down had deviated
from its course and said that officials were dismissed as a result. This
startling and uncharacteristic admission shows that Armenia may be
recalculating its position in relation to Russia — something that the
West and Turkey could try to capitalize on.
Still, Armenia has been careful not to stray too far from Russia.
Despite a Russian soldier's recent killing of an Armenian family in
Gyumri, which has generated controversy and demonstrations in Armenia,
Yerevan has stood by Moscow. Ohanian said the incident "should not drive
a wedge in the Armenian-Russian relations," adding that Russia's
military presence in Armenia "is solving a larger regional issue."
Russia's military backing is crucial to Armenia, but continuation or
escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict — such as Azerbaijani
forces' alleged shoot-down of an Armenian unmanned aerial vehicle Jan.
29 — will test Yerevan's resolve.
Source: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/belarus-and-armenia-re-evaluate-relations-russia
Source: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/feb/3/azerbaijan-warns-us-will-lose-eurasia-influence-wi/#ixzz3Qn0jsb6m
Expert: The USA-Turkey-Israel link is the key threat to Armenia's security
The link USA-Turkey-Israel is the key threat to
Armenia's security, political expert, Sergey Shakaryants, said at
today's press-conference. He also added that just the above mentioned
"three" is trying at present at any cost to level significance and
influence of the events dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the
Armenian genocide.
'And the statement by Israel's foreign minister, that Israel does
not recognize the Armenian genocide, was not accidental. If
Tel-Aviv makes such sharp anti-Armenian statements, it expresses not
only its own position, but also the position of its key sponsor
and strategical partner - Washington. These two countries are not
going to recognize the genocide, as it is not beneficial to them",
- Shakaryants said.
He also added that he will not be surprised if the leadership of the
USA as well as the leaders of the other Western countries will not
arrive in Armenia to take part in the memorial events, but will visit
Turkey to celebrate the so-called "Gallipoli victory".
The expert thinks that the rumors on worsening of relations between
Tel-Aviv and Ankara are a myth, as a true level and quality of relations
is determined not by the diplomatic rhetoric, but economic cooperation.
"Look, what huge investments Israel is making in the Turkish economy,
agriculture, defense industry and many other key sectors. Against the
background of such a close cooperation, all the rest political
statements simply lose their relevance", - the expert said.
To recall, the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide will be
marked on 24 April 2015. Official Ankara does not recognize the genocide
which was recognized in 24 countries of the world. There are no
diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey and the 330 km long
border between these countries has been shut down since 1993 according
to Ankara's initiative.
Azerbaijan warns U.S. will lose Eurasia influence without clear strategy
Leaders from Azerbaijan
pressed Tuesday for the Obama administration to articulate a more clear
long-term geopolitical strategy for Eurasia, warning that America was
in danger of losing influence in the region while its allies risk losing
access to energy resources. The former Soviet Union member country — bordered by Russia
to the north, Iran to the south and the Caspian Sea to the east — holds
the rights to significant oil and gas reserves, which it has opened to
foreign investors from Europe and the United States via the Southern Gas
Corridor.
But fighting between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia
over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, where the pipeline crosses, has
escalated in recent months, though largely overshadowed by conflict in
Ukraine. Western powers have called on both sides to reach a peaceful
resolution to the conflict, which threatens to draw in bigger powers,
including Russia, Turkey and Iran and infringe expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor. Azerbaijan and Armenia
have both laid claim to the territory during nearly a century of
dispute, which included two wars, and violence flared again in recent
weeks.
“That’s why we are talking about the essence of the
strategic vision of the United States of America, about this corridor.
This is not a corridor of gas and oil; this is a corridor of freedom,” Samad Seyidov, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of Azerbaijan’s parliament, told a forum hosted by The Washington
Times.
Times.
Elin Suleymanov, Azerbaijan’s
ambassador to the United States, explained that without an overall
strategy, the U.S. is wasting efforts to fix a crop of smaller problems
in the region. “The lack of clearly pronounced strategic outlook
it’s basically working with immunity deficiency disorder. Because if you
have no immunity, you come up with measles, or whatever. That
strategic outlook is the immune system. If it doesn’t exist, all small
the things pop up,” Mr. Suleymanov said.
Source: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/feb/3/azerbaijan-warns-us-will-lose-eurasia-influence-wi/#ixzz3Qn0jsb6m
Armenia wary of new Russo-Turkish alliance based on neocolonialist policies
Armenia, which was once divided under Russian-Turkish agreements, is
not interested in another alliance between Moscow and Ankara, but it
cannot back international policies aimed at restraining Russia or Turkey
by force of its current “allied” relations with the Russians. The world press has recently described the behavior of the presidents
of Turkey and Russia as a policy of gambling. Some observers say that
both leaders, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, are carrying out
aggressive neocolonial policies, trying to save the remnants of the
Ottoman and Soviet empires, respectively.
Several years ago Putin initiated the project of the Eurasian Union, a
Russian-led grouping that currently also includes Kazakhstan, Belarus
and Armenia. Experts believe this project allows Moscow to keep under
its control at least several of the post-Soviet states. Erdogan, meanwhile, revived many of the attributes of Ottomanism – he
built a huge palace where guests are greeted by warriors in traditional
Ottoman clothes, he also proposed the introduction of Ottoman language
teaching at schools.
Over the weekend, Erdogan issued an ultimatum to the European Union.
“We are testing Europe. Will Europe be able to digest and to accept
Turkey, whose people are Muslims? If you oppose Islamophobia, then you
must admit Turkey into the EU,” he said. He added that “Turkey is a strong country today, and it will not
stand at the door of the EU and ask for membership.” Erdogan emphasized
that if Turkey is not admitted to the EU, it will go its own way.
Will there be a new alliance between Turkey and Russia, which
traditionally would end up in the division of Armenian lands? In this
context, media are discussing the role of the Armenian Question in the
matter of pressure on Turkey and Russia. The first lawsuits against
Turkey in connection with the return of estates seized from Armenians as
a result of the 1915 Genocide have already been filed with courts.
Ninety-four-year-old Zvart Sujyan has submitted a lawsuit for the
hereditary possession of the land on which the airport of Diyarbakir
(Tigranakert) is now located.
The Turkish press already writes that it is easier to give the
Armenians the private property seized from them a century ago than take
the matter as far as the fragmentation of the country. The Sabah newspaper reminds that 41 out of the 50 U.S. states, as
well as the parliaments of 22 countries have recognized the Armenian
Genocide. “The small state of Armenia has no influence, but the Armenian
Diaspora has… the grandchildren of the families deported from the
Ottoman Empire 100 years ago are carrying out a serious campaign. Let’s
see what kind of response Ankara will give to the noise that will be
raised in New York, Washington and Paris,” the newspaper writes.
In his turn, representative of the Turkish opposition Nationalist
Movement party Oktay Vural, referring to the information about the
Armenian Diaspora’s making land claims to Turkey, said that Erdogan’s
party, by returning back to Turkey the Armenians who had gone abroad, is
working on a program on returning lands to them.
He noted that the return to Armenians of the Ataturk Airport and the
Cankaya Palace, which Armenians consider to be theirs, is impossible,
but wondered whether the publication of such claims was accidental. On the eve of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, which
is to be marked on April 24 this year, a situation has formed where the
main issue is not the claims of the Republic of Armenia to Turkey, but
the possible support by the US administration of the demands of the
Armenian Diaspora to Turkey.
Source: http://www.armenianlife.com/2015/01/27/analysis-armenia-wary-of-new-russo-turkish-alliance-based-on-neocolonialist-policies/
Richard
Giragosian: Armenia can't count on Russia any more
Slaying of Armenian family by a Russian soldier spurs intense debate over Armenia's security relationship with Russia
For Armenia, its role as a reliable partner and ally of Russia has never faced any real challenge. Much of this reliance on Russia stems from essential security and economic concerns. Armenia's security reliance on Russia is driven by a virtual state of war with neighbouring Azerbaijan, rooted in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, only exacerbated by the absence of "normal" diplomatic relations and closed border with Turkey. And with the Turkish refusal to recognise the Armenian genocide, this threat perception is only magnified. For small, landlocked Armenia, a strategic alliance with Russia is generally accepted as essential in the face of such inherent insecurity. And beyond an imperative of security, Armenia also depends on Russia as a crucial source of remittances, or money sent home by large numbers of Armenians living and working in Russia. Yet, there is a surprisingly intense debate now under way within Armenia that seriously questions these fundamental pillars of the Armenian-Russian relationship.
New challenge
More
specifically, this new challenge to Armenia's traditional reliance on
Russia is driven by two significant factors: tragedy and timing. A
tragedy first triggered this turnabout when a rogue Russian soldier
killed an entire Armenian family, save for a six-month-old infant who
later died of his stab wounds, in Gyumri, Armenia. Gyumri is the country's second-largest city and the host of the Russian military base.That senseless act
of random violence in the early morning hours of January 12, sparked an
immediate and spontaneous outpouring of grief and mourning. But the initial shock and grief quickly turned
to outrage, as Russian military officials seemed to take charge of the
case with a heavy-handed disdain and disregard for local sensitivities.
That perception was only deepened when Armenian officials were slow to
respond or react. It
was this mishandling of the tragedy, even more than the murder itself,
that then triggered a series of demonstrations and protests by local
Armenians in Gyumri. Fearing
that the Russian conscript would be moved from his detention within the
Russian base and likely returned to Moscow, local residents demanded
that the self-confessed soldier be turned over to Armenian authorities.
Calming tensions
For
its part, local Armenian officials and the prosecutor general scurried
to calm tensions by first announcing that Armenian investigators were
actively participating in the interrogation of the soldier, and then,
once that did little to appease the protesters, vowed that the soldier
would be tried in Armenia. Amid
the Armenian officials' wrangling over the legal process of the case,
the absence of any higher level Armenian officials, and the failure of
the Armenian president to declare a day of mourning or even make a
statement, only escalated the tension. And
days later, no Armenian official attended the funeral of the murdered
family, thereby triggering a fresh wave of indignant protests in the
city, that later spread to the capital, Yerevan. The protests soon moved
to the Russian consulate in Gyumri before culminating in a march on the
Russian base as protesters broke through a police cordon to enter the
base itself. Yet,
there is a deeper context to this public anger. In fact, that family is
only the latest victim in murders and shootings by Russian servicemen
stationed at the Russian military base. In
1999, two drunk Russian soldiers opened fire on a local market in the
city, killing two and injuring dozens of others. And in 2013, two
children were killed by unexploded ordnance on an unguarded tank firing
range on the premises of the Russian base.
Bad timing
Against
this backdrop, the tragedy has also raised renewed questions of base
security, with outrage that the armed soldier who reportedly deserted
his post triggered no notice or alarm by Russian military personnel at
the base. Although
this tragedy has prompted a new challenge to Armenian-Russian
relations, it is also exacerbated by a second factor, timing. The timing
of this tragedy could not be much worse, for several
reasons. First, in 2013, in what many perceived as Russian pressure on
its so-called "strategic partner", Armenia was forced to scrap its
planned free trade deal with the European Union in favour of joining the
Russian-led Eurasian Union. Second, a steady supply of arms and
advanced weapons systems to Azerbaijan from Russia has sowed further
distrust. And
most recently, the negative impact on the Armenian economy from western
sanctions imposed on Russia, evident in a sudden depreciation of the
Armenian currency and reflected in a steep decline in remittances, has
only revealed the asymmetry and lack of parity in Armenia's
"partnership" with Russia. It seems clear that this unexpected challenge
to Armenia's reliance on Russia will not dissipate any time soon.
Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies Centre, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.
Zaruhi Postanjyan: Russian side broke international agreement
Legal relations between Armenia and Russia, the agreement on the military base, and the agreement on Russian frontier troops require that the Russian side should hand over soldier of the Russian 102nd military base Valery Permyakov, who is accused of killing a family in Gyumri, to Armenian law enforcement bodies, Heritage Party member Zaruhi Postanjyan said at a press conference today. According to her, “the Russian border guards made a flagrant violation of the law by handing V. Permyakov over to the Russian side. “Russia broke an international agreement. It has a provision that states clearly that a person who violates the Armenian border shall be handed over to the Armenian side. The Russian border guards were obliged to take Permyakov into custody and hand him over to us because he intended to cross the Armenian border,” the deputy said. She noted that regardless of whether the frontier violator was a Russian soldier or a citizen of Armenia or any other state, the Russian border guards had no right to detain and hand him over to the Russian side. “It is a flagrant violation of rights and is related not only to Armenia’s sovereignty, but also its Constitution,” Z. Postanjyan said. In her words, “Armenian citizens may justly demand that the agreements on the military base and border troops of the Russian Federation be terminated”. She stressed that a respectful attitude to Armenia stems from Russia’s interests in the first place.
Six members of the Avetisyan family, including a two-year-old girl, were killed in Gyumri on January 12. A seventh member of the family, a 6-month-old boy, was hospitalized in critical condition with stab wounds. Valery Permyakov, a soldier of the Russian 102nd military base, is suspected of the crime. On the night of January 13, Russian border guards detained V. Permyakov during an attempt to cross the Armenian-Turkish border. He gave evidence and confessed to the crime. He is being held in custody. Armenia’s Investigative Committee opened a criminal case under Article 104 (murder) of the Criminal Code. The press service of Armenian Health Ministry reported earlier today that doctors failed to save the life of six-month-old Seryozha Avetisyan who was the only survivor of the brutal killing of his family in Gyumri on January 12. Despite the life-saving measures taken by high-class Armenian and foreign doctors, the child’s condition did not improve and he was pronounced dead at 5:02 pm Yerevan time.
EU Observer: Armenia murder galvanises anti-Russia felling
A
Russian soldier’s recent murders of seven members of an Armenian
family, including a six-month old boy, has ignited anger across our
country. It is not just the murders themselves that caused the outrage,
although killing an entire family with an AK-47 and a knife should be
enough to prompt nationwide fury. Adding to the consternation of many
Armenians was Russia’s indication
that it would try the soldier in a Russian military court rather than
surrender him to our government for trial. Many Armenians worry that a
Russian court will give him a light sentence or even ship him back to
Russia to be set free. Russia’s indication that one of its courts will
have jurisdiction is
also seen as the latest evidence of its growing neo-colonialist control
over its South Caucasus neighbour. With Russia playing the role of
Armenia's protector in its old
conflict with Azerbaijan, Russia critics say our government feels no
compunction about acting undemocratically - ignoring the rule of law,
stifling the opposition, and engaging in mass-scale corruption. There is
a stack of evidence to corroborate these claims - including
beatings and jailings of dissidents and the burning of opposition
figures’ cars. Those critics are calling for the government to start
extricating the country from the Kremlin’s bear-hug before it’s too
late.
Sphere of influence
There
have been several signs of increasing Russian influence in recent
years. To start with, Moscow has given no indication it will withdraw
the
3,000 troops it has stationed at Gyumri in northern Armenia. Although
ostensibly here to protect our sovereignty, many Armenians believe the
troops are on our soil as a veiled threat - a reminder of what could
happen if Yerevan refuses to toe the Kremlin line. Even more galling to
many of us who dislike Russian soldiers being in
our country is that Moscow pays Armenia nothing for the use of the
base. In addition to “protecting” Armenia with 3,000 troops, Russia is
also selling us arms. That is of small consolation to a lot of
Armenians, however, because
Moscow is also selling arms to Azerbaijan, the country with which we
fought a war after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Russia is supplying
our government with cut-rate oil and gas.
Although that lowers our energy costs, it makes us vulnerable to a
Russian energy cut-off. That unnerves many Armenians, given Moscow’s
propensity to use energy as a weapon against neighbours. Our government
has also dug itself deeper into energy-dependence by
selling much of its oil and gas infrastructure to the Russians. The most
glaring example of Russia’s attempt to establish control
over Armenia is its bullying us to join the Eurasian Economic Union
rather than the European Union. In July 2013, Yerevan was ready to sign
both a free-trade agreement and a political association agreement with
the EU. Two months later, Russian president Vladimir Putin called
Armenian
president Serzh Sargsyan to Moscow like a feudal ord summoning his
vassal. Only government insiders know what Putin told Sargsyan. But
after their hour-long meeting, Sargsyan announced a 180-degree
turn-around on economic integration. We were going to join the Customs
Union, the forerunner of the EEU, instead of the EU, he said. The EEU
entered into life on 1 January 2015, with four members - Russia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Sargsyan probably thought he had little
choice but to accept Putin’s
dictates, given the 3,000 Russian troops in Armenia, the country’s
dependence on Russian energy, and the way Russia reacted to the uprising
which installed a pro-EU regime in Ukraine: invading Crimea and sending
Russian arms and troops into eastern Ukraine to help separatists.
Demonstrations
Much of our public was incensed about the u-turn on integrating with
the EU, which is our biggest trading partner, to integrating with the
EEU. A thousand or more Armenians turned out to demonstrate against
Russia’s role in the about-face when Putin visited the country in
December 2013. Many more thousands have turned out to protest the Russian soldier’s
killing of this young family and the possibility that he will be tried
by a Russian court. Indeed, those who contend that our government is becoming a
colonialist client of Russia have plenty of ammunition for their
argument. For the good of our country our leaders need to begin backing away
from Moscow. Seventy years of the Kremlin calling the shots in Armenia
during Soviet times was enough. It’s time for Armenia to throw off the Russian yoke once and for all.
Our people want to be free from a long-meddling neighbour whose
interests don’t coincide with ours.
Armine Sahakyan is a human rights activist based in Armenia
Россия должна сделать жесткие выводы из трагедии в Гюмри
Расстрел семьи в армянском городе Гюмри наглядно
продемонстрировал, насколько хрупки позиции России в Закавказье, и то,
насколько они важны. Подобные трагедии могут быть использованы для
политической атаки на такие важные объекты, как 102-я военная база, и
стать почвой для конфликта Москвы с ее ближайшими союзниками.
Событие преступления уже слишком известно, чтобы останавливаться на подробностях. Российский военнослужащий-срочник, 18-летний уроженец Читинской области, ушел из части с оружием, убил первую попавшуюся местную семью и попытался сбежать в Турцию, но был задержан на границе. В первое время после того, как информация об этом стала расходиться сперва по Гюмри, а затем и по Армении в целом, в ряде местных СМИ стали одна за другой выходить публикации откровенно антирусские и даже почти расистские. Акцент намеренно делался на гражданстве и национальности предполагаемого преступника. Затем пошли того же рода «обобщения» и «аналитика», а истерика перекочевала в интернет и социальные сети, где и пребывает до сих пор.
Подавляющее большинство армянских экспертов и представителей
правительства в подобном замечены не были. Наоборот, они пытались
урезонить участников истерики, разъясняя «дважды два»: делать упор на
национальности нельзя, вина пока не доказана, да и преступление по всем
признакам бытовое. Одновременно поползли слухи о том, что преступление
это якобы «не такое простое», «это все придумали турки», «его же на
турецкой границе взяли». Да, его взяли на турецкой границе, в
гражданской одежде, с фонариком и деньгами (в долларовом эквиваленте 12;
не тысяч, просто – 12 долларов).
Новый
всплеск эмоций естественным образом пришелся на день похорон жертв
трагедии. Разгоряченные люди двинулись к российской военной базе и
российскому консульству. Непосредственное участие в акции приняли, к
сожалению, и представители армянской церкви. Людей распалили слухи о
том, что солдата якобы собираются вывезти в Россию. Разумный довод о
том, что если бы хотели, уже пятьдесят раз бы вывезли, никого не
вразумил. Это было не столько политическое, сколько именно эмоциональное
действие. Столкнувшись с местной полицией, которая оцепила базу и
здание консульства, люди не разошлись. Появились «активисты» с
мегафонами, и митинг продлился до темноты.
Постепенно
градус истерики стал спадать, однако он искусственно поддерживается в
среде так называемых армянских активистов через социальные сети. Никаких
аргументов с реальным политическим содержанием «активисты» не приводят,
они лишь апеллируют к эмоциям шокированных людей (порой весьма
агрессивно). Как это ни парадоксально, вывода базы из Гюмри требуют
именно малообразованные российские «эксперты», а не «армянские
активисты». Эта категория «комментаторов» призывает уйти из Закавказья,
чтоб «они там сами с собой разбирались». В Армении же даже наиболее
популистские оппозиционные группы стали призывать к «совместному
расследованию» и «взвешенному подходу».
Основным поводом для политизации расследования стала юрисдикция. Солдат –
гражданин России, по Конституции он не может быть выдан другой стране.
Однако в российско-армянском Договоре 1997 года о правовом статусе
военных баз есть пункт № 4, согласно которому преступления, совершенные
военнослужащими базы или членами их семей на территории Республики
Армения, расследуются именно армянскими властями. Если бы преступление
было совершенно на территории базы, то такого спора бы не возникло.
Сейчас же юридическая коллизия привела к эмоциональному всплеску в
Гюмри. К слову, военнослужащие российских баз в Абхазии и Южной Осетии
пользуются абсолютным иммунитетом и ни при каких обстоятельствах не
попадают под юрисдикцию властей страны пребывания.
Компромисс,
между тем, реально существует, и к настоящему моменту он почти
выработан. Солдат остается на гауптвахте комендатуры базы, но
расследование будет проводиться в основном армянскими полицейскими. Это
разумно со всех сторон: и политической, и следственной. Передавать
сейчас солдата армянской полиции было бы большой ошибкой. Надо сказать,
что армянская полиция не сильно жаждет такого поворота событий, а
представители властей Армении стараются соблюсти именно юридическую
процедуру, не нарушив ничьи интересы. Только «активисты» продолжают
требовать чуть ли не немедленного линчевания, поскольку «он признался».
Стремление
Еревана к соблюдению духа и буквы соглашений с Россией трактуется
«активистами» как слабость президента Сержа Саргсяна и «унижение» перед
Москвой. Это только частично выглядит как эмоциональные крики
невыдержанных людей. Все больше и больше стало появляться
интернет-заявлений и комментариев по уже знакомому сценарию «пишет дочь
офицера, все не так однозначно...». Делается это как бы от лица «жителей
Гюмри», «уставших» от российской базы. Простая манипуляция словами
сразу меняет акценты. Например, говорится, что «это уже не первый случай
со 102-й базой», и сразу создается соответствующий негативный
эмоциональный фон. Да, не первый. С 1997 года – третий. Один раз местные
дети зачем-то пошли играть на артиллерийский полигон и подорвались на
старом снаряде. База проводила тяжелое расследование, которое выявило
недостатки в охранении полигона, хотя и родителям стоило бы лучше за
детьми смотреть. В другой раз, действительно, пара прапорщиков открыла
пьяную стрельбу на городском рынке. Здесь все понятно.
И
вот – случай номер три. Совместное расследование – единственный
разумный путь, поскольку оно просто обязано проводиться (даже
географически) в двух разных юрисдикциях. Непосредственно на месте
преступления следственные действия проводили армянские полицейские, они
же совместно с военной прокуратурой РФ проводят допросы подозреваемого.
Но выявление мотивов и характеристики личности солдата потребует,
например, допросов его родных в Читинской области, а также допросов
сослуживцев и командования базы. А это могут сделать только российские
следователи. Одна из заслуживающих внимания версий связана с
деятельностью пятидесятнической секты на «малой родине» солдата, в
поселках Читинской области. В частности, одним из старших пасторов там
обнаружился человек с такой же, как у солдата, фамилией. Степень их
родства пока только проверяется, как проверяются и вообще все
обстоятельства его 18-летней жизни до призыва. Это так называемая
характеристика личности, которая обязательно потребуется для прояснения
реальной картины происшедшего.
Но уже сейчас наиболее перспективной можно назвать версию о неуставных
отношениях среди военнослужащих 102-й базы. Слухи о нездоровой атмосфере
как на самой базе, так и вокруг нее, ходили давно. Изолированность
проживания и общая криминогенность вокруг объекта не способствуют
благочестию. Для того чтобы поддерживать дисциплину и порядок, нужны,
видимо, если не другие методы, то, по крайней мере, другие люди. Скорее
всего, командование базы, в частности, заместитель командующего по
воспитательной работе и прочие «политруки», понесут наказание при любом
исходе расследования. Но общие выводы по армии, к огромному сожалению,
последуют вряд ли. Даже несмотря на то, что разговоры о том, что так
называемую систему «воспитательной работы», построенную по устаревшим
лекалам, пора менять, идут уже давно. Как минимум назрела тотальная
переаттестация всех «политруков», на каких бы должностях они ни
находились (включая гражданскую службу).
Однако
вернемся в Армению. Значительная часть жителей Гюмри прямо зависит от
российской базы, работая в сфере ее обслуживания. В целом у российских
военных и местных всегда были очень хорошие отношения на бытовом уровне,
и среди «активистов» не нашлось жителей Гюмри, открыто требовавших
вывода базы. Она – один из ключевых пунктов обороны самой Армении, о ее
ликвидации не может идти и речи. Даже несмотря на некоторое улучшение
отношений Еревана и Анкары в последние годы, абсолютного доверия между
Арменией и Турцией не будет никогда. Даже если НАТО или США захотят
предоставить Еревану такие гарантии в обмен на вывод российских баз,
никто в Армении таким гарантиям не поверит. Историческая память в
регионе намного сильнее сиюминутных тактических раскладов. Другое дело,
что попытки раскачать ситуацию в Армении, используя какие угодно поводы,
причины и методы, участились, что не может не вызывать беспокойства.
Взаимоотношения с Арменией для России не только союзнические и
родственные. Армения особо важна как стратегический пункт, для которого
ближневосточный регион – задний двор. Российские военные базы в Армении
для РФ – форпост ближневосточной политики. Они специально выстраивались
как особый ТВД, на котором (вкупе с аналогичными базами в Южной Осетии и
Абхазии) мы способны самостоятельно вести конвенциональную войну до
прибытия подкреплений. База в Гюмри, например, самим своим
существованием парализует стратегические аэродромы НАТО в Эрзуруме и
Диярбакыре. Расквартированные в Гюмри и под Ереваном системы С-300 и
С-400 способны прикрывать воздушное пространство вплоть до северных
границ Израиля и Сирии. В период сирийского кризиса позапрошлого года
эти базы находились в режиме постоянного дежурства. Там же базируются и
российские истребители, в задачи которых входит патрулирование
воздушного пространства Армении, однако радиус их возможного действия
куда шире.
Одним
словом, российские военные базы в Армении – не прихоть и не дань
каким-то мифическим или историческим связям. Они – важная и сознательно
созданная часть российской военной стратегии во взрывоопасном регионе.
Причем это единственный пример того, что система тактической обороны
может быть вынесена за пределы РФ и дополнительно влиять на расклад сил
на совсем другом театре военных действий – Ближневосточном. Сейчас,
возможно, нечто подобное может быть сформировано в Средней Азии на базе
ВБ в Таджикистане и аэродрома в Киргизии (имея в виду афганское
стратегическое направление).
При
этом разговоры о выводе баз с территории Армении носят исключительно
дилетантский и эмоциональный характер. В Ереване действительно
обеспокоены тем, что в последние годы Россия стала продавать оружие
Азербайджану. Это вызывает глухой ропот и иные формы недовольства,
вплоть до отсылки к политике США, которые Баку вооружения не продают,
ссылаясь на наличие карабахской проблемы. Одновременно некоторые
представители российской дипломатии и политической элиты, расслабившись,
стали вести себя по отношению к Армении слишком уж неаккуратно.
Регулярно стали возникать локальные скандалы из-за неосторожных
высказываний, задевающих чувства и эмоции армян, что, конечно же, не
улучшает взаимопонимания. В последний год российско-армянские отношения
несколько раз обострялись до крайне неприятного уровня как раз из-за
странного поведения российских чиновников. Одновременно с этим Ереван
превратился в удобную площадку для различных НПО с американским или
европейским участием, которые организуют там всякого рода «конференции»,
«тренинги», «встречи народной дипломатии». В Москве, занятой совсем
другими проблемами, Армении уделяли слишком мало внимания, что в итоге и
привело к возникновению чувства отчуждения у части армянских
оппозиционных сил.
Скорее всего, в трагедии в Гюмри не больше конспирологии, чем в любом
другом подобном преступлении. Разумно предположить, что большая часть
вины лежит именно на офицерском составе базы, который много чего
недоглядел, сделал не так или не сделал вовсе. Глупость – такой же
источник человеческих бед и несчастий, как и злая воля, а глупость в
армии, на изолированной военной базе в чужой стране – угроза втройне.
Что-то наверняка найдут в прошлом солдата (это прошлое не могло быть
изумительным в многодетной семье в бедном поселке Читинской области).
Совместными усилиями и российской, и армянской сторон будет найден
разумный юридический компромисс, который, по большому счету, и
изобретать-то не надо: он на поверхности.
Однако
трагедия выявила несколько болезненных просчетов во внешней политике и
пропаганде. Во-первых, любое абсурдное антироссийское обвинение или
требование (например, вывести базы) может быть в любой момент
активизировано, и никто даже не попытается этому противостоять.
Во-вторых, не ведется никакой идеологической работы, разъясняющей смысл
существования российских баз в Закавказье, а если таковая и ведется, то
удивительно топорно, и не только в Армении. Например, в прошлом году
вокруг базы в Южной Осетии полыхал скандал из-за артиллерийских стрельб,
угрожавших соседним селам. Вместо того чтобы провести разъяснительную
работу и переговоры, «прикомандированные» в Цхинвал отставные
офицеры-политруки принялись угрожать журналистам и местным активистам,
по сути дела дискредитируя позицию и роль России. В-третьих, российские
посольства и военные миссии сосуществуют в параллельных мирах,
пересекаясь в основном на официальных приемах. То же можно сказать и о
командированных работниках из Москвы, включая пропагандистов.
Вкупе
это порождает атмосферу недоверия и отчужденности, в которой легко
циркулируют любые слухи и эмоциональные оценки антироссийского и даже
антирусского характера. А доверие, разрушенное таким вот образом,
восстанавливать придется годами.
Тигран Манасян. Операция «Пермяков», или Попытка поссорить Армению с Россией
Последние трагические события в армянском Гюмри и последующее
развитие сильно напоминает майдановский украинский сценарий. У некоторых
сил на Западе существует жизненно необходимая цель максимального
ослабления позиций России на постсоветском пространстве. Цена в данном
случае для них не имеет значения.
Проведем небольшой экскурс в
историю. После фактического отказа президента Януковича от парафирования
договора о евроинтеграции, как по волшебной палочке центр украинской
столицы захлестнула волна антиправительственных демонстраций. Несмотря
на готовность идти на уступки оппозиции, люди не расходились, более того
в Киев приезжали многочисленных лидеры западных государств с
поддержкой, фонд Сороса выделил миллионы долларов на «продолжение
банкета», произошли погромы, убийства, провокации, которые вылились в
государственный переворот. К власти пришли симпатичные Вашингтону и
Брюсселю люди (притом многие не имели на первых порах украинского
гражданства). Итог: ухудшение отношений с Россией, экономический кризис
на Украине, в России и Европе.
В Армении же произошло то, чего
крайне не желали многие западные аналитики. Армения также как Украина
внезапно отказалась от углубления в рамках программы «восточного
партнерства» и 2 января вступила в ЕАЭС. Это безусловно победа
российской дипломатии и поражение западной. Безусловно с этим мириться
не собирались, и идеи майдана в Армении зрели с прошлого года. Однако
освоив уроки «украинской весны» армянская оппозиция объединилась и
объявила, что майдана не потерпит и незаконных переворотов делать не
собирается.
Встал вопрос, как установить в Армении угодный для
западных сил режим. Попытки «майдана» не давали результатов. Лучшим
средством для некоторых западных кругов стала бы дискредитация в
армянском обществе России и российских вооруженных сил. Для этого нужно
была лишь искра, подогретая непростым экономическим положением в
Армении. Кто бы мог представить, что русский человек — братский народ —
может поднять оружие на армянина (да еще в Армении) и сделать это с
чрезвычайным «османским» зверством.
Решение было найдено в
кровавом, казалось бы, в банальном преступлении. Убийство этническим
русским — военным мирно спящей армянской семьи. Еще неизвестно, при
каких обстоятельствах было совершено преступление. Был ли Пермяков один,
или были сообщники-провокаторы. Был ли он в принципе на месте
преступления, или он пешка в многоходовой игре с целью ухудшения
отношений между Россией и Арменией. Как бы то ни было план дал
результаты практически сразу же и заимел эффект взорвавшейся бомбы.
Однако армянское общество в отличие от украинского, где западные НПО
сильно завладели умами солидной части граждан, оставалось традиционно
пророссийским. Ориентация на Россию в вопросах геополитической,
экономической и военной интеграции были для Еревана приоритетом
последние 24 года. Лишь после затягивания в вопросах реагирования
правительств Еревана и Москвы, люди стали выходить на улицы. Для армян
было оскорбительным молчание братской российской стороны.
Однако и
этого бы не произошло, если бы президент и первые лица Армении
мгновенно бы отреагировали и выступили бы с посланием к гражданам. В
России же ни по одному федеральному каналу не было сделано достойного
репортажа с целью успокоить граждан обоих государств, уже вовлекшихся в
он-лайн троллинг. Причины подобного поведения последней могут быть
разные, но это едва ли можно назвать поведением стратегического партнера
и союзника. Еще важный аспект (чего не ожидали в Москве). России
следовало передать этого нелюдя армянской стороне без лишних проволочек,
для этого существует двусторонняя правовая база. Этого не сделано до
сих пор. И возможно, сделано не будет. На мой взгляд, эта
принципиальность не имеет логического объяснения и является лишь
устарелой «великодержавностью». В наш век, когда люди живут в суверенном
обществе, подобная политика будет лишь подливать масла в огонь и
усиливать эффект «вбитого клина» между народами и государствами.
Практически во всех СМИ обсуждается эта тема, и горячих голов хватает с
обеих сторон. И это нехороший признак.
Уверен, прагматичность и мудрость народов, проживших не одно столетие
вместе восторжествуют и здравый смысл победит. Армяне и русские слишком
многое пережили вместе, чтобы из-за провокации (какой бы жестокой она
ни была) встать по разные стороны баррикад. Искренне приятно и
трогательно видеть как отдельные русские люди, как в самых верхах
власти, так и рядовые граждане, соболезнуют горю армянского народа и
осуждают преступника. Но для успокоения ситуации необходимо бороться с
корнем проблемы, а не с ее последствиями.
Тигран Манасян — кандидат исторических наук, политолог, специально для
Source: http://regnum.ru/news/polit/1885443.html
Денис Дворников: "Беда России в привычке говорить с соседями через губу — «Да куда они денутся!?»
«Беда России в этакой советской, солдафонской привычке говорить с
соседями через губу. „Да куда они денутся!?“ — так наши серые пиджаки
говорили про Прибалтику, про Грузию, про Украину… Теперь эти
горе-великодержавники с квадратными подбородками небрежно комментируют
ситуацию в Армении, забывая, что страшная трагедия в Гюмри произошла в
стране, пережившей геноцид, сумгаитские погромы. Армяне и помыслить не
могли, что такое „османское“ зверство возможно ожидать от человека в
российской военной форме», — пишет на своей страничке в «Фейсбук»
публицист, член Общественной палаты РФ, председатель общественного
комитета «За открытость правосудия» Денис Дворников.
Он считает,
что благодаря невнятной и неадекватной позиции, Россия выглядит, как
«этакая Византия на мелководье». «Бывшая империя, теряющая смыслы,
человеческий капитал, живущая картинками из военных фильмов советского
прошлого. Все технологии и идеологические модели, на которых мы пытаемся
строить что-то грандиозное и евразийское, относятся к категории
„секонд-хенд“… И вот на таком же вторичном рынке приобретены „демократия
с российскими особенностями“, „свободный рынок, адаптированный для
россиян“, и т.д. Будет ли это интересно народам, которые мы призываем к
новой интеграции? Дает ли это нам право на чувство собственного
превосходства?
Через губу нельзя говорить даже с микроскопическим
островным государством, если ты действительно осознаешь, что
представляешь великую страну… Да много ли надо было сделать?
Двухминутный сюжет по „Первому каналу“ в день трагедии, внятные и
терпеливые объяснения для собравшихся жителей Гюмри, объективная
информация для своих сограждан и искренние сожаления братской нации. Это
не стоит ни копейки из нашего худеющего бюджета. Но это бесценно с
точки зрения национального духа и совести. Но, к сожалению, эти простые
вещи стали недосягаемы после стольких лет отрицательной селекции,
сознательного отторжения от ответственных постов людей неравнодушных и
знающих», — пишет Дворников.
12 января во втором городе Армении Гюмри, где дислоцирована 102-ая
российская военная база, произошло убийство семьи из 6 человек.
Подозреваемый в преступлении — солдат-срочник базы Валерий Пермяков был
задержан при попытке пересечения армяно-турецкой границы и признался в
убийстве. После задержания его передали командованию 102-й российской
базы. Трагедия вызвала широкий общественный резонанс, имели место
общественные волнения в Ереване и Гюмри, а также призывы отказаться от
российского военного присутствия в республике.
Source: http://regnum.ru/news/society/1885346.html
Лавров: Трагедию в Гюмри пытаются политизировать
Ситуацию в Гюмри пытаются политизировать, причем не Армения. Об этом
сегодня, 21 января, заявил министр иностранных дел РФ Сергей Лавров в
ходе своей традиционной большой пресс-конференции по итогам 2014 года.
Как сообщили ИА REGNUM
в пресс-службе Министерства иностранных дел, на пресс-конференции
Лавров отвечает на вопросы относительно событий на Украине, Ближнем
Востоке, отношениях России с зарубежными странами. Он выразил уверенность, что из-за трагедии в Гюмри отношения с
Арменией не пострадают. «Гордый армянский народ никогда не поведется на
провокации», — подчеркнул Лавров. «Все, что необходимо для расследования
этой трагедии, будет сделано, — пообещал глава МИД РФ. — Убежден, что
российско-армянские отношения не пострадают». Напомним, как ранее сообщало ИА REGNUM,
военнослужащий российской базы в Армении рядовой Валерий Пермяков
подозревается в том, что 12 января самовольно с оружием ушел в город
Гюмри, где в одном из домов убил целую семью из семи человек, включая
младенца.
Source: http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1886572.html
В разговоре с Сержем Саргсяном Владимир Путин выразил соболезнования всему армянскому народу
Президенты России и Армении Владимир Путин
и Серж Саргсян провели сегодня телефонный разговор, в ходе которого
стороны обсудили ситуацию вокруг расправы над семьёй в армянском городе
Гюмри. Об этом, как передаёт ТАСС, сообщил пресс-секретарь российского
президента Дмитрий Песков. «Путин высказал уверенность, что все необходимые следственные действия
будут проведены в самые сжатые сроки и виновные понесут наказание,
предусмотренное законом», — сообщил пресс-секретарь президента Дмитрий
Песков. «Путин также выразил надежду, что прибывшие в Гюмри российские врачи
вместе с армянскими коллегами окажут всю необходимую
высококвалифицированную помощь выжившему в этой трагедии шестимесячному
Серёже Аветисяну», - сказал пресс-секретарь. «Президент России также заверил своего армянского коллегу, что в случае
необходимости Россия будет готова направить медицинский самолёт, чтобы
доставить ребёнка в Москву для прохождения дальнейшего лечения», — добавил он. Напомним, что 12 января в областном центре области Ширак Гюмри
военнослужащий российской военной базы рядовой Валерий Пермяков,
находясь в карауле, самовольно оставил пост и с оружием и боеприпасами
отправился в город. Он проник в один из домов, где расстрелял из
автомата шестерых спавших членов одной семьи, включая двухлетнего
ребёнка, и ранил шестимесячного младенца. Пермяков оставил на месте
преступления обмундирование и обувь с именными бирками, а также автомат и
неизрасходованные боеприпасы, и скрылся. В тот же день ночью при
попытке перехода границы с Турцией его задержали российские
пограничники, которые охраняют госграницу Армении. Минздрав РФ направил
ведущих российских специалистов для оказания помощи полугодовалому
мальчику, выжившему в резне.
