This month's blog entry proudly presents comrade Zoravar's latest military assessment titled, "The Rise of the Russian Army – Preparing for Future Wars". His latest work, which in a sense is an addendum or an extension of his previous work titled, "The Rise of Russia on the Warm Seas", appears immediately below my opening commentary. Both of Zoravar's articles are an in-depth look at the historic revitalization the Russian military has been undergoing in recent years. I want to inform readers who may not be familiar with his work, when it comes to military matters, specifically matters pertaining to the Russian military, Zoravar remains one of the most knowledgeable people around. I say this without any exaggeration. His assessments and presentation of military related topics are topnotch and they therefore hold great value. He is a great asset to our community and I thank him for being here with us. So, please feel free to skip right to Zoravar's latest work, especially if you are tired of my rantings as of late. I say rantings because recent developments in Armenia have made me particularly disappointed, frustrated and somewhat worried about the future. I therefore ask those of you who may have some masochistic tendencies to please continue reading what I have to say.
Since Zoravar's current work discusses military related matters (which incidentally, also includes a brief look at our military's performance during the four day war in April), I would like to take this opportunity to take a closer look at our military and in doing so also address some problems, political and sociological, that we Armenians are continuing to suffer from. In a sense, my current commentary can be looked at as an addendum or an extrapolation of my previous one titled, "Thoughts on the four day war of 2016".
Foremost, I'd like to remind my readers that the first grave mistake a military or a nation-state makes before its defeat is to underestimate its opponent. The second grave mistake a military or a nation-state makes before its defeat is to overestimate itself. The third grave mistake a military or a nation-state makes is to misread the geopolitical climate of the neighborhood it's located in. And fourth and final grave mistake a nation makes is to neglect developing deeper ties with its regional allies. I see us Armenians making ALL FOUR mistakes today. Moreover, for years I have been calling on Armenians to realize that while our military is our tactical advantage, our relationship with the Russian Bear has to be made our strategic advantage. Here, again, we are faltering.
The Armenian mindset today - drowning in bluster, arrogance, materialism, pride, narcissism, emotions and a very severe dose of political illiteracy - continues to neglect the aforementioned fundamental tenets and principals acknowledged by successful nation-states around the world for thousands of years. Sadly, I see our people repeating the very same mistakes our forefathers made going back at least two thousand years. Armenians are proving that history repeats and that certain traits that nations exhibit are etched in its collective DNA.
I see many prominent figures in Armenian society today engaging in a lot of empty bravado and political illusions. I see our officials neglecting Armenia's neighborhood by failing to properly develop its strategic ties with Russia and Iran. Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, I see the political narrative in Armenia fully hijacked by the country's Western agents and their followers with the tacit consent of our nation's incompetent and corrupt leaders. Ultimately, Western bribes and the Western lifestyle seems too irresistible for Armenians. As a result, Armenian society is blinded to the seriousness of the situation Armenia faces today; we as a people are misreading (or simply refusing to better understand) Moscow's historic role in the south Caucasus; and we are failing to understand that Armenia's right place, its natural place is fully within the Russian orbit.
What's more, we are allowing an army of Western agents and their shills to sow the seeds of Russophobia throughout Armenian society. We are being fooled by them into thinking that Russia is not our ally, as an increasing number of our people are actually beginning to think that Russia is in fact our enemy. We are giving Western powers, who have historically sought to foment war and unrest in our region, a growing say in our country. We are being fooled into thinking that Armenia has security options other than Russia. We are being fooled into thinking that with "unity" alone Armenia can solve all its problems. We are giving a very self-destructive form of nationalism a growing voice in our society. We are dangerously overestimating our abilities as a nation (the cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion syndrome). We are dangerously underestimating Azerbaijan's capabilities, be it political, be it military. Finally, we are continuing to neglect the deepening of Armenia's relations with Russia (and Iran) essentially because an army of Western financed propaganda outlets, professional agents, internet trolls (cyber activists) and NGOs are constantly drawing our attention Westwards.
Despite official Yerevan's efforts to whitewash and sugarcoat events of early April, it is an undeniable fact that Armenia suffered setbacks (avoidable in my opinion) on the battlefield against Azerbaijan. Smelling blood, Armenia's Western shills have successfully presented Russia as the guilty culprit to the Armenian public in their on-going effort to drive a permanent wedge between Armenia and Russia. Consequently, there is a major war looming on the horizon in the south Caucasus and this is coming at a time when Armenia's military has suffered relatively serious setbacks on the battlefield and trust between Russia and Armenia is at a low point. This all represents an existential danger to Armenia. And Yerevan's "complimentary politics", coupled with the incompetence and corruption of Armenian officials, has created the overall situation we are in today. Ultimately, the two most important components of Armenia's national security is the quality of its relationship with the Russian Bear and the quality of its military. Our officials have failed us in both regard and we the sheeple are too stupid to understand the gravity of the situation.
I'd like to now talk about the flaws/problems that were revealed in Armenia's armed forces in the wake of the Azeri military assault.
I have been a student of history and geopolitics perhaps for most of my forty-something years on earth. Having also had some military experience early on in my life, I am also quite familiar with military matters (although I my knowledge does not come even close to that of Zoravar's). Nevertheless, for most of my life I have been following military developments around the world and for many years I have been closely watching Armenia's armed forces - and for many years I have been silently worried about what I had been seeing. I was never easily dazzled by military "shows" where ninja-looking soldiers break things and eat live animals, nor am I ever impressed by bravado and lofty rhetoric. Stuff like that is meant to make the ignorant masses feel good. But, a well trained eye can see right through such a facade.
I must add here that Western propagandists embedded throughout our society have mislead our people by making them think that the setbacks Armenia suffered in April was because of Russian duplicity and because Armenia lacked the proper weaponry for its defense. Armenia's battlefield setbacks had nothing to do with the quality of military hardware Armenia's military is currently equipped with nor does it have anything to do with the weapons systems Russians have sold to Azerbaijan in recent years. Armenia has more than enough Russian-made combat arms to protect itself against anything Azerbaijan can throw at it and, as the reader will see later on in this commentary, Russia's recently supplied weapons systems to Azerbaijan played no role whatsoever in the military assault against Artsakh.
My concerns about our military is actually about its human/societal element. In other words: I have not been impressed with quality of our troops nor their fat-bellied officers, many of whom look and act like they just came down from a desolate mountain. A nation that does not have healthy sons (both physically and psychologically) and a highly trained and educated officers corps, is a nation that cannot have an effective military, and a nation without an effective military is a nation only temporarily. This conversation is therefore not about numbers or money or geopolitics, but rather about attitude, manhood, ethics, service, ideology, mindset, health, discipline, priorities, vision and militarism - all of which we Armenians seem to be lacking today.
I held my tongue for a long time because I felt it was not the time to criticize or complain. Moreover, I did not want my criticism to be confused in any way with that of Western-financed traitors. I also felt somewhat uncomfortable talking about our military's battlefield performance in the previous blog entry because the situation on Armenia's eastern front at the time was still indiscernible (due to the proliferation of disinformation) and thus unpredictable. Critical analysis was therefore inappropriate. But a lot has changed in the wake of what happened two months ago. Now that the line-of-contact in Artsakh has been properly reinforced by our military and the situation on the battlefield has been brought back under control, I feel more comfortable pointing out a few of the tactical and sociological (i.e. cultural) problems I noticed during the short but intense fighting in April. In short: Azerbaijan's military assault brought flaws that exists within our military and society to the forefront where all can see. We now need to discuss these flaws if we are to remedy them. I have broken them up as follows:
In my humble opinion, our frontline troops (at least those I was able to observe during the war) looked more like second-rate Middle Eastern armies, like those we see in Syria or loosely organized paramilitary units, like those we see in the Donbass. In the big picture, I must say we are lucky that our enemy to the east has problems that are worst than ours and our enemy to the west is being kept in check by the Russian Bear. But this cannot be a reason for complacency or an excuse for inaction. In the bigger picture, by bringing the problems long hidden inside our military to the surface, I believe the little war we experienced in April was a very timely wake up call. Recent dismissals of military officers in our armed forces are a good sign but much more needs to be done.
There may very well be military units within our armed forces that are well trained and proficient, but what I saw and heard about during the month of April suggested to me that there is also a lack of discipline, organization and proficiency within our frontline military units. I am sure many of my readers have noticed the very rudimentary - World War One era - early warning defenses all along Armenia's border with Azerbaijan: 18 year olds with conventional observation scopes, tin cans and guard dogs are monitoring a modern battlefield against a vicious enemy. This suggests to me that our military high command is using frontline troops essentially as cannon fodder. The means (technical and financial) to procure or purchase modern monitoring devices exists, but the will to do so apparently does not. Instead of investing money into our border defenses by acquiring modern monitoring devices, poorly trained and equipped young men are therefore being stationed in forward positions to essentially act as trip wires. They are there to basically blunt a first strike by the enemy before more capable combat units are deployed. This folks is a strategy for defeat. We are not the kind of people that can tolerate unnecessary military deaths. We cannot afford this kind of mindset and approach to our military problems simple because of our very limited human resources.
Now, with all that said, in the big picture, and despite all these flaws, it has to also be said that our troops performed relatively well and our society did rally around our flag. Baku's attack could have been much worst. Artsakh defense forces were caught off-guard, Azeris however registered relatively minor gains. Our young soldiers did not run in the face of danger and our defensive lines, albeit primitive, held well enough given the circumstances. That said, we can no longer afford to continue on with the mindset we have had. We need a new strategy in our military. We need a new mindset in our society. We cannot continue hoping that problems within Azerbaijan will outweigh ours and that Russia will always be around to protect us from Turks. We have to acknowledge that fundamental problems exist within our military as well as in our society, and we need to work on fixing them. Ultimately, we must recognize that armed forces are living organism and they require constant reassessment, nourishment and development. After one thousand years of statelessness, we Armenians seem to be having a very hard time understanding all this. We therefore have a lot of work to do ahead of us.
Other than myself, Zoravar and perhaps a few others here, the only ones that are questioning the official narrative about the four day war are our Western agents. Needless to say, we know why: they have their destructive agenda. They are simply searching for excuses to attack President Sargsyan and blame Moscow. That is after all what they get paid to do. That said, none of what I have outlined above, specifically the sociological aspects, is being discussed anywhere in our society. As expected, the narrative has been hijacked by our professional Russophobes. We therefore are not having the conversations we need to be having. Our Western agents are busy blaming Russia, our corrupt officials are blaming anybody other than themselves and the rest of our people are engaging in wishful thinking, feel good rhetoric and empty bravado. It's as if no one wants to divert from their self-serving agendas, no one wants to admit the truth, no one wants to shatter the fantasy world they live in, no one want to admit fault and no one wants to recognize the problems that exist... which is why they all rather blame Russia for everything. Blaming Russia is much more convenient for all involved and, without saying, it perfectly fits into Uncle Sam's agenda.
I must add: The disinformation and bluster that has been coming out of Yerevan lately - namely that Armenian forces performed admirably well despite Russian treachery - is given our people a very false sense of security and illusions of grandeur (the cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion syndrome). The reactions I have been seeing to the events in April are in my opinion not so subtle signs of deep seated emotional problems, insecurities, fear and political illiteracy in our people.
I reiterate: Yes, our armed forces were able to resist the Azeri onslaught effectively. Our young soldiers performed well enough under the circumstances. More importantly, our society instinctively rallied around our flag. Consequently, Baku was forced settle for relatively minor gains. But, as I have already said, we cannot be under the false impression that all's well in our military. It is a grave mistake to underestimate your enemy's capability. It is even a graver mistake to overestimate your capability. The four day day revealed too many flaws and shortcoming in our armed forces as well as our society in general. We need to recognize all this, we need to talk about all this and we need to start the process of fixing all this.
So, no folks; making lofty speeches about Armenia during barbecue gatherings with a glass of vodka in hand does not qualify as genuine patriotism; uttering vulgarities about Turkish and Azeri mothers does not qualify as being warlike; singing and dancing to patriotic music and admiring our wonderful "boys" does not qualify as nation-building; and throwing rocks at Russia (the nation that actually protects us) does not quality as smart politics. In short: We can do without our Western financed nationalists, mentally ill nationalists, choban nationalists and Diasporan nationalists. After one thousand years of foreign occupation (for the most part Turkic and Islamic) what we Armenians need today is actually a fundamental change of mindset. We Armenians have the spirit, the intelligence and the perseverance and despite what our Western agents are claiming, we already have more than enough Russian-made weapons systems with which to defend our lands. But this is enough only to survive and maintain the status quo. If we want Armenia to grow and prosper, then we as a people will need political foresight, societal discipline and pragmatic nationalism. We therefore have a lot of work ahead of us and as with all things, the first step starts with us.
Since Zoravar's current work discusses military related matters (which incidentally, also includes a brief look at our military's performance during the four day war in April), I would like to take this opportunity to take a closer look at our military and in doing so also address some problems, political and sociological, that we Armenians are continuing to suffer from. In a sense, my current commentary can be looked at as an addendum or an extrapolation of my previous one titled, "Thoughts on the four day war of 2016".
Foremost, I'd like to remind my readers that the first grave mistake a military or a nation-state makes before its defeat is to underestimate its opponent. The second grave mistake a military or a nation-state makes before its defeat is to overestimate itself. The third grave mistake a military or a nation-state makes is to misread the geopolitical climate of the neighborhood it's located in. And fourth and final grave mistake a nation makes is to neglect developing deeper ties with its regional allies. I see us Armenians making ALL FOUR mistakes today. Moreover, for years I have been calling on Armenians to realize that while our military is our tactical advantage, our relationship with the Russian Bear has to be made our strategic advantage. Here, again, we are faltering.
The Armenian mindset today - drowning in bluster, arrogance, materialism, pride, narcissism, emotions and a very severe dose of political illiteracy - continues to neglect the aforementioned fundamental tenets and principals acknowledged by successful nation-states around the world for thousands of years. Sadly, I see our people repeating the very same mistakes our forefathers made going back at least two thousand years. Armenians are proving that history repeats and that certain traits that nations exhibit are etched in its collective DNA.
I see many prominent figures in Armenian society today engaging in a lot of empty bravado and political illusions. I see our officials neglecting Armenia's neighborhood by failing to properly develop its strategic ties with Russia and Iran. Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, I see the political narrative in Armenia fully hijacked by the country's Western agents and their followers with the tacit consent of our nation's incompetent and corrupt leaders. Ultimately, Western bribes and the Western lifestyle seems too irresistible for Armenians. As a result, Armenian society is blinded to the seriousness of the situation Armenia faces today; we as a people are misreading (or simply refusing to better understand) Moscow's historic role in the south Caucasus; and we are failing to understand that Armenia's right place, its natural place is fully within the Russian orbit.
What's more, we are allowing an army of Western agents and their shills to sow the seeds of Russophobia throughout Armenian society. We are being fooled by them into thinking that Russia is not our ally, as an increasing number of our people are actually beginning to think that Russia is in fact our enemy. We are giving Western powers, who have historically sought to foment war and unrest in our region, a growing say in our country. We are being fooled into thinking that Armenia has security options other than Russia. We are being fooled into thinking that with "unity" alone Armenia can solve all its problems. We are giving a very self-destructive form of nationalism a growing voice in our society. We are dangerously overestimating our abilities as a nation (the cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion syndrome). We are dangerously underestimating Azerbaijan's capabilities, be it political, be it military. Finally, we are continuing to neglect the deepening of Armenia's relations with Russia (and Iran) essentially because an army of Western financed propaganda outlets, professional agents, internet trolls (cyber activists) and NGOs are constantly drawing our attention Westwards.
Despite official Yerevan's efforts to whitewash and sugarcoat events of early April, it is an undeniable fact that Armenia suffered setbacks (avoidable in my opinion) on the battlefield against Azerbaijan. Smelling blood, Armenia's Western shills have successfully presented Russia as the guilty culprit to the Armenian public in their on-going effort to drive a permanent wedge between Armenia and Russia. Consequently, there is a major war looming on the horizon in the south Caucasus and this is coming at a time when Armenia's military has suffered relatively serious setbacks on the battlefield and trust between Russia and Armenia is at a low point. This all represents an existential danger to Armenia. And Yerevan's "complimentary politics", coupled with the incompetence and corruption of Armenian officials, has created the overall situation we are in today. Ultimately, the two most important components of Armenia's national security is the quality of its relationship with the Russian Bear and the quality of its military. Our officials have failed us in both regard and we the sheeple are too stupid to understand the gravity of the situation.
I'd like to now talk about the flaws/problems that were revealed in Armenia's armed forces in the wake of the Azeri military assault.
I have been a student of history and geopolitics perhaps for most of my forty-something years on earth. Having also had some military experience early on in my life, I am also quite familiar with military matters (although I my knowledge does not come even close to that of Zoravar's). Nevertheless, for most of my life I have been following military developments around the world and for many years I have been closely watching Armenia's armed forces - and for many years I have been silently worried about what I had been seeing. I was never easily dazzled by military "shows" where ninja-looking soldiers break things and eat live animals, nor am I ever impressed by bravado and lofty rhetoric. Stuff like that is meant to make the ignorant masses feel good. But, a well trained eye can see right through such a facade.
I must add here that Western propagandists embedded throughout our society have mislead our people by making them think that the setbacks Armenia suffered in April was because of Russian duplicity and because Armenia lacked the proper weaponry for its defense. Armenia's battlefield setbacks had nothing to do with the quality of military hardware Armenia's military is currently equipped with nor does it have anything to do with the weapons systems Russians have sold to Azerbaijan in recent years. Armenia has more than enough Russian-made combat arms to protect itself against anything Azerbaijan can throw at it and, as the reader will see later on in this commentary, Russia's recently supplied weapons systems to Azerbaijan played no role whatsoever in the military assault against Artsakh.
My concerns about our military is actually about its human/societal element. In other words: I have not been impressed with quality of our troops nor their fat-bellied officers, many of whom look and act like they just came down from a desolate mountain. A nation that does not have healthy sons (both physically and psychologically) and a highly trained and educated officers corps, is a nation that cannot have an effective military, and a nation without an effective military is a nation only temporarily. This conversation is therefore not about numbers or money or geopolitics, but rather about attitude, manhood, ethics, service, ideology, mindset, health, discipline, priorities, vision and militarism - all of which we Armenians seem to be lacking today.
Four day war revealed fundamental flaws
I held my tongue for a long time because I felt it was not the time to criticize or complain. Moreover, I did not want my criticism to be confused in any way with that of Western-financed traitors. I also felt somewhat uncomfortable talking about our military's battlefield performance in the previous blog entry because the situation on Armenia's eastern front at the time was still indiscernible (due to the proliferation of disinformation) and thus unpredictable. Critical analysis was therefore inappropriate. But a lot has changed in the wake of what happened two months ago. Now that the line-of-contact in Artsakh has been properly reinforced by our military and the situation on the battlefield has been brought back under control, I feel more comfortable pointing out a few of the tactical and sociological (i.e. cultural) problems I noticed during the short but intense fighting in April. In short: Azerbaijan's military assault brought flaws that exists within our military and society to the forefront where all can see. We now need to discuss these flaws if we are to remedy them. I have broken them up as follows:
1) We lost a lot of territory initially. Our military seemed to have gotten caught off guard and was ill-prepared. This suggests serious lapses (or treason) within our military intelligence and military high command. Although most of the positions we initially lost were recovered in the ensuing days of combat, some remain in Azeri hands because Armenian officials decided that the positions in question were not worth risking soldiers' lives. Although Baku wanted much more, whatever little territory they did gain (exact size or strategic value of the territories in question is not important in this discussion) has to nevertheless be seen as a clear win for Baku (regardless of their losses). Baku basically saw that it can use military force to gain territory inside Artsakh itself and if the territories in question are somehow deemed not strategically important by Yerevan, Armenia will not counterattack. What kind of a military will not counterattack to liberate its lands for the fear of losing men? This is a very troubling mindset and a bad precedent, as it will most likely encourage Baku to embark on additional military offensives in the future to acquire even more territory. Overall, we lost territory in Artakh proper, we lost a lot of military hardware and we lost a lot of fighters. Worst part, this was not even a full scale Azeri attack.
2) According to official accounts, Armenian forces lost 14 tanks during the fighting. From a military perspective, losing 14 tanks in a few days is a lot. During the height of the fighting I saw too many of our frontline battle tanks without their protective reactive armor and without any camouflage netting. Our tanks were deployed improperly. They were therefore too exposed and too vulnerable, and our military paid a very high price for it.
3) Israeli-made attack drones and long range anti-tank guided missiles were responsible for a lot of the damage the Azeri offensive caused. We currently do not have any countermeasures against these types of weapons. We therefore remain vulnerable in this regard. Thanks to Israel, the Azeri military has gained a distinct military advantage over Armenian forces - as of now.
4) Our troops did not destroy more than two dozen Azeri tanks as claimed by our side. I actually don't think our troops destroyed any Azeri battle tanks. The only photo or video evidence we have thus far seen of Azeri hardware loses is one attack helicopter and one bridging tank. Had we indeed destroyed a number of Azeri tanks we would have already seen video and/or photo evidence of their wreckage. To date, none exists. Losing 14 of our battle tanks against one of their bridging tanks? That's a clear victory for the Azeri military.
5) Related to 4; our officials were putting out a lot of misleading information. Claims that Azerbaijan had very high number of losses, insignificant territorial gains and that they were using their recently bought Russian made weapons systems all proved false. Azerbaijan did not have very high losses. Every bit of Artsakh territory that was lost in combat, regardless of size, is very significant. Also, Baku did not utilize its recently bought Russian weapons. Which makes me wonder, what else have our officials lied to us about? In short: There was too much choreography (boastful rhetoric, false information, scripted talk by troops being interviewed, etc.) for my palate.
6) Related to 5; as I have already said, the Azeri military did not use its recently bought Russian made weapons systems during their military operations against Artsakh defense forces. Not a single one of the recently bought weapons systems, be it Mi-35 attack helicopters, T-90 battle tanks, Tos-1 thermobaric flamethrowers or Smerch multiple rocket launchers, were seen anywhere on the Azeri side during the hostilities. I believe Armenian officials deliberately lied about this matter (and in doing so caused hysteria among our society's more Russophobic idiots) in order to cover their wrongdoings and put pressure on Moscow. More on this matter later on in this commentary.
7) Although I respect their patriotism and courage, the thousands of veterans that were haphazardly pouring into Artsakh to assist the young soldiers fighting on the border could have been (and in some cases were) more of a liability than an asset. In times of war, professional military units need to reinforce and assist frontline troops, not fifty, sixty or seventy year olds. There has to be another, more effective, more organized and a more efficient way to utilize the services of our enthusiastic but disorganized and physically incapable war veterans.
8) We continue to have very primitive border monitoring measures on our eastern front. This is not 1916, this is 2016. Billions of dollars are being wasted and embezzled in Armenia as guard dogs and tin cans are acting as early warning devices for our border defense troops. This is outrageous. This is unacceptable. The entire stretch of border with Azerbaijan needs infrared and thermal monitoring devices and early warning systems. Money and the technical know-how to purchase or produce such devices exists, the will to do so apparently does not. The four day war revealed mismanagement and incompetence within all layers of Armenia's military establishment. Rather than publicly recognizing these problems and taking concrete measures to fix them, official Yerevan has instead chosen to blame Russia.
9) We need to stop obsessing about our military losses and our "boys". Yes, we are small in numbers but we need to understand that young men are expected to fight and die for their homeland. This is how it has been since man first walked the earth. Besides, what makes our young men more precious than other young men around the world? As I see it, the size of our population is not the problem here. There are many small nations around the world and none of them obsess over their "boys" like we do. The problem here is the unhealthy/sick worship we have towards our male population. In general, women in Armenia are looked down upon and treated as property. Alarmingly, this has taken on genocidal nature in recent years as record numbers of female fetuses are being aborted in Armenia essentially because Armenians want "boys". This demonic practice is a blight on our homeland and shows just how disgustingly similar we are to our Tatar neighbors. This matter not only reveals our utter backwardness as a people but also the spiritual decay we continue suffering from. We need to realize that the fundamental reason why people like Russians, Americans, British, French, Germans, Turks, Iranians, etc., have reached great heights in history is because of the way they raised their sons. Pampering our young men and constantly telling them how wonderful they are (e.g. all the stupid nonsense about թագավոր տղերք, առյուծ տղերք) is not a national strength but a very serious national sickness and thus weakness. Men who are pampered and constantly told how wonderful they grow up to be lazy, arrogant, narcissistic, self-righteous, materialistic, misogynistic and irresponsible. Such men are worthless as soldiers and as citizens. Today's Armenia attests to this. Many of Armenia's problems today are in fact rooted in the way Armenians raise their children, sons in particular. We have too many մամայի բալա (mama's boy) and this one of the fundamental reason why our society unlike other societies does not produce large numbers of alpha males. I mostly blame Armenian husbands for this ailment because they are incapable of satisfying their wives and their wives in turn place all their energy on satisfying their sons. In short: We have a very unhealthy obsession with our "boys". We need to stop it. We need to let the boys grow up and become responsible men. We also need to understand that if we want statehood then our boys will have to die in political wars. And when they die, we have to honor their memory and not obsess over their deaths. When we obsesses over military losses, it is basically sends the enemy the message that we are not ready to sacrifice our sons for our homeland. It's a clear sign of weakness.
10) A lot of our soldiers that I was seeing on the frontlines in Artsakh looked very casual, a bit undisciplined and I would even say somewhat ill-prepared. Combat troops of modern armies essentially act like robots and military crews that operate weapons systems such as artillery batteries essentially operate like well-oiled machines. Moreover, young men in militaries around the world tend to be in their physical prime. The demeanor of our soldiers (the way they look and the way they present themselves) suggests lack of preparedness, discipline and health. From what I know, compared to other armies, basic training for Armenian troops is sub-par, military units are too laid-back and young conscripts clearly look undernourished. Worst yet, there is a scourge of cigarette addiction throughout our society, including our armed forces. Many if not most of our 18-20 year old soldiers are chain-smokers. Moreover, I'm simply embarrassed of our military officers (as well as our public officials, but that's another story). I am willing to bet that most of the men in our military (particularly our officers) would not be able to run a single kilometer, let alone be able to march tens-of-kilometers over mountainous terrain with full combat gear. Way too many of our soldiers look physically (and I'm willing to bet emotionally and psychologically) unfit for combat duty; way too many of them are being seen without proper military gear such as combat webbing, helmets and flack jackets; way too many of them wear articles of clothing sent from home; and worst of all, way too many improperly handle their personal firearms. And that's not all. I noticed during the war that military hardware near the frontlines, as well as troops, were being clustered too close to each other and they lacked camouflage. The artillery men I saw in action didn't look very well trained. I have reliable information that newly recruited soldiers (those with only several months in service) were deployed to positions near the line-of-contact. Overall, there was a lot of mismanagement and bad decision making during the fighting. Troops of our frontline military units look more like civilian hunters than trained soldiers. Also, all the silly picture taking, singing, dancing and all the "manly" bluster is not a sign of bravery but signs of Semitic backwardness. A military man's posture, the build of his body, the manner of his speech and the way he wears his uniforms and the way he handles his firearm testifies to his training and his mindset as a soldier. Being a soldier is something to be proud of. Being a soldier requires a certain mindset. I don't think our young men yet fully understand what it means to be a soldier - nor to their parents understand the importance of raising soldiers.All this, and many other little things I left out, belies claims by our officials that Armenia's armed forces are well prepared and fully capable of handling any military threat. All these shortcomings and flaws (cultural and genetic in my opinion) can and do lead to unnecessary casualties, logistical inefficiency and loss of combat effectiveness. What happened in April proves this. Azerbaijan did not attack in full force, yet we lost a lot of men, hardware and land. It was because we were not prepared. We were not prepared in all senses of the word and at all levels, from our top military officials down to our frontline soldiers. Unpreparedness in war always translates into death and defeat. By saying all this, I am not nitpicking nor am I complaining merely for the sake of complaining. I just want the reader to understand that Armenia is located in a region of the world that is very violent and unforgiving. In order for Armenia to survive and prosper Armenia will have to demand the best from its sons and daughters. And that's where the problem is in my opinion. I do not see Armenia's sons and daughters ready to fully meet Armenia's complex demands.
In my humble opinion, our frontline troops (at least those I was able to observe during the war) looked more like second-rate Middle Eastern armies, like those we see in Syria or loosely organized paramilitary units, like those we see in the Donbass. In the big picture, I must say we are lucky that our enemy to the east has problems that are worst than ours and our enemy to the west is being kept in check by the Russian Bear. But this cannot be a reason for complacency or an excuse for inaction. In the bigger picture, by bringing the problems long hidden inside our military to the surface, I believe the little war we experienced in April was a very timely wake up call. Recent dismissals of military officers in our armed forces are a good sign but much more needs to be done.
There may very well be military units within our armed forces that are well trained and proficient, but what I saw and heard about during the month of April suggested to me that there is also a lack of discipline, organization and proficiency within our frontline military units. I am sure many of my readers have noticed the very rudimentary - World War One era - early warning defenses all along Armenia's border with Azerbaijan: 18 year olds with conventional observation scopes, tin cans and guard dogs are monitoring a modern battlefield against a vicious enemy. This suggests to me that our military high command is using frontline troops essentially as cannon fodder. The means (technical and financial) to procure or purchase modern monitoring devices exists, but the will to do so apparently does not. Instead of investing money into our border defenses by acquiring modern monitoring devices, poorly trained and equipped young men are therefore being stationed in forward positions to essentially act as trip wires. They are there to basically blunt a first strike by the enemy before more capable combat units are deployed. This folks is a strategy for defeat. We are not the kind of people that can tolerate unnecessary military deaths. We cannot afford this kind of mindset and approach to our military problems simple because of our very limited human resources.
Now, with all that said, in the big picture, and despite all these flaws, it has to also be said that our troops performed relatively well and our society did rally around our flag. Baku's attack could have been much worst. Artsakh defense forces were caught off-guard, Azeris however registered relatively minor gains. Our young soldiers did not run in the face of danger and our defensive lines, albeit primitive, held well enough given the circumstances. That said, we can no longer afford to continue on with the mindset we have had. We need a new strategy in our military. We need a new mindset in our society. We cannot continue hoping that problems within Azerbaijan will outweigh ours and that Russia will always be around to protect us from Turks. We have to acknowledge that fundamental problems exist within our military as well as in our society, and we need to work on fixing them. Ultimately, we must recognize that armed forces are living organism and they require constant reassessment, nourishment and development. After one thousand years of statelessness, we Armenians seem to be having a very hard time understanding all this. We therefore have a lot of work to do ahead of us.
Other than myself, Zoravar and perhaps a few others here, the only ones that are questioning the official narrative about the four day war are our Western agents. Needless to say, we know why: they have their destructive agenda. They are simply searching for excuses to attack President Sargsyan and blame Moscow. That is after all what they get paid to do. That said, none of what I have outlined above, specifically the sociological aspects, is being discussed anywhere in our society. As expected, the narrative has been hijacked by our professional Russophobes. We therefore are not having the conversations we need to be having. Our Western agents are busy blaming Russia, our corrupt officials are blaming anybody other than themselves and the rest of our people are engaging in wishful thinking, feel good rhetoric and empty bravado. It's as if no one wants to divert from their self-serving agendas, no one wants to admit the truth, no one wants to shatter the fantasy world they live in, no one want to admit fault and no one wants to recognize the problems that exist... which is why they all rather blame Russia for everything. Blaming Russia is much more convenient for all involved and, without saying, it perfectly fits into Uncle Sam's agenda.
I must add: The disinformation and bluster that has been coming out of Yerevan lately - namely that Armenian forces performed admirably well despite Russian treachery - is given our people a very false sense of security and illusions of grandeur (the cat looking in the mirror and seeing a lion syndrome). The reactions I have been seeing to the events in April are in my opinion not so subtle signs of deep seated emotional problems, insecurities, fear and political illiteracy in our people.
I reiterate: Yes, our armed forces were able to resist the Azeri onslaught effectively. Our young soldiers performed well enough under the circumstances. More importantly, our society instinctively rallied around our flag. Consequently, Baku was forced settle for relatively minor gains. But, as I have already said, we cannot be under the false impression that all's well in our military. It is a grave mistake to underestimate your enemy's capability. It is even a graver mistake to overestimate your capability. The four day day revealed too many flaws and shortcoming in our armed forces as well as our society in general. We need to recognize all this, we need to talk about all this and we need to start the process of fixing all this.
So, no folks; making lofty speeches about Armenia during barbecue gatherings with a glass of vodka in hand does not qualify as genuine patriotism; uttering vulgarities about Turkish and Azeri mothers does not qualify as being warlike; singing and dancing to patriotic music and admiring our wonderful "boys" does not qualify as nation-building; and throwing rocks at Russia (the nation that actually protects us) does not quality as smart politics. In short: We can do without our Western financed nationalists, mentally ill nationalists, choban nationalists and Diasporan nationalists. After one thousand years of foreign occupation (for the most part Turkic and Islamic) what we Armenians need today is actually a fundamental change of mindset. We Armenians have the spirit, the intelligence and the perseverance and despite what our Western agents are claiming, we already have more than enough Russian-made weapons systems with which to defend our lands. But this is enough only to survive and maintain the status quo. If we want Armenia to grow and prosper, then we as a people will need political foresight, societal discipline and pragmatic nationalism. We therefore have a lot of work ahead of us and as with all things, the first step starts with us.
Throwing rocks at the Bear that protects us on behalf of those who wish us dead
They have the tools to set the political mood of a society. They have the tools to sow political unrest. They have the tools to brainwash. They have the tools to distort reality. They have the tools to create perceptions. Most of their tools in recent years have been aimed against a resurgent Russia and its nationalistic leadership. Western news media, and by extension all Western financed news media around the world, is therefore utterly saturated with Russophobic disinformation today. And since Yerevan has allowed Western interests a free hand in Armenia and because Armenia has a large Diaspora in the Western world, Western propaganda is also very powerful in Armenia today. As a result, Western assets planted throughout Armenian society can take any political matter today and effortlessly spin it to fit their self-serving political narrative - and Armenians will accept it as the truth.
Whether the reader realizes it or not, we are living in a world were Western powers actually create perception. And as we all know, for most people, perception is reality. We are living in an Anglo-American-Jewish world where black is white, right is wrong and people are expected to "choose" what gender they are. We are living in a world turned up-side-down. And we Armenians are one of their victims. This is essentially why Armenians today look at their enemies and see friends and they look at their friends and see enemies. One of the gravest flaws in our society has been the tendency in recent years to, as Zoravar states in his latest military assessment, throw rocks at the Bear that actually protects us essentially on behalf of those who wish us dead. There is so much Russophobic nonsense circling around in Armenian society today that Turks are getting hopeful -
Hurriyet Dauily News: Could Turkey get closer to Armenia just to anger Russia?: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/could-turkey-get-closer-to-armenia-just-to-anger-russia.aspx?PageID=238&NID=100444&NewsCatID=412
Trend: Why is Armenia taking part in NATO’s Warsaw summit? http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/2555043.html
Hurriyet Dauily News: Armenian diaspora, focus on Russia rather than Turkey! http://www.hurriyetdailynews. com/armenian-diaspora-focus- on-russia-rather-than-turkey
In
the immediate aftermath of the four day war Yerevan set loose it
Western-funded smut peddlers and their followers put out a lot of disinformation about Russia.
This seemed to have been deliberate attempt by Armenian officials distract public opinion. There may have been two reasons behind it. 1) Yerevan may have been trying to conceal its incompetence and corruption. 2) Yerevan may have been trying to sabotage what it thought was going to be a final push by Moscow to settle the
Artsakh dispute by forcing both Yerevan and Baku to come to the negotiations table and make territorial concessions. Given the green light, Western agents and their followers wasted no time in fully hijacking the conflict's political narrative in an attempt to turn public opinion in Armenia against Russia. Consequently, virtually all the talk in Armenian society has been about Russians backstabbing Armenians; Russians being in bed with Armenia's enemies; Russia being one of Armenia's enemies; and of course the need for Armenia to seek closer ties - and security guarantees - with Western powers. The political narrative has been so severely spun and distorted that common sense, along with the truth, is now virtually absent from discussions about Armenia's alliance with Russia and about the four day war. The following are some examples of what I'm referring to -
These are the kinds of toxic news articles that have been flooding the Armenian landscape and setting the political tone in Armenian society in recent weeks. The authors of these articles are the kind of people we are empowering in our homeland essentially because of our political illiteracy and in many cases our treachery. Basically, knowing that we Armenians are emotional and politically illiterate, they are making a direct play on our nationalistic sentiments. And it's working. Despite Armenian pride and arrogance, Armenians, due to their cultural and genetic traits, remains one of the world's most easily mislead sheeple. This is basically the reason why Armenians now regularly take to the streets to protest Armenia's only ally and the only nation on earth that is ready to spill the blood of its military men to keep Armenia from falling to Turks or Azeris essentially for the sake of those who could careless if Armenia disappeared from the world map.
Ռուսաստանը վերմակն իր վրա է փորձում քաշել և միայնակ զբաղվել ԼՂ հակամարտությամբ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38DL_tTaVDU
Armenia's Fair-Weather Allies: https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/armenias-fair-weather-allies
After April Violence in Karabakh, Armenia’s Distrust in Russia Keeps Growing: http://www.jamestown.org/regions/thecaucasus/single
Pro-Europe activists in Armenia demand end to ties with Russia: http://www.armenianow.com/en/news/politics/2016/04/21/armenia-karabakh-paruyr-hayrikyan-khzmalyan-protest-russia-petition/1418/
“By Adhering to Russia, We have Lost Other Partner States and Reputation”: http://en.168.am/2016/04/19/5902.html
Karabakh Challenges Armenian-Russian Alliance: https://iwpr.net/global-voices/karabakh-challenges-armenian-russian-alliance
Armenians Protest Against Russian Arms Sales To Azerbaijan: http://www.rferl.org/content/armenia-protest-russian-arm-sales-to-azerbaijan/27673173.html
Russia’s Lavrov to be met with massive protest rally in Armenia: http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/210638/
Russian Factor: Claims against Russia made in two criminal proceedings in Armenia: https://www.armenianow.com/en/society/human-rights/2016/05/30/armenia-russia-criminal-cases-ambassador-gyumri-permyakov/4103/
Angered at Arms Sales to Azerbaijan, Armenians Push Away from Russia’s Embrace: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79066
Why Armenia's Allies Are Letting It Down: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-armenias-allies-are-letting-it-down-16455
Russia’s Threat to NATO Goes Beyond Eastern Europe: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-and-turkey-escalate-russia’s-threat-nato-goes-beyond-eastern-europe
Security Ties With Russia Reinforce Armenia’s Regional Isolation: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/18100/security-ties-with-russia-reinforce-armenia-s-regional-isolation
Russia's Staging Bases in Armenia: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/armine-sahakyan/russias-staging-bases-in_b_9339046.html?
US Ambassador: Putin's Newest Satellite State: Armenia: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/02/24/putins-newest-satellite-state/#155181443549
The Russia-Armenia alliance is threatening Turkey, a critical U.S. ally: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-russia-armenia-alliance-is-threatening-turkey-a-critical-us-ally
Is Russia Really Armenia’s Ally?: http://armenianweekly.com/2016/04/19/boyajian-russia/
The hysteria being whipped up inside Armenia by Western agents (with the tacit approval of Armenian officials) has gotten unprecedented numbers Armenians today questioning Russia's military presence on Armenian soil and some are now even shouting, "Russian occupation out of Armenia" and "Ռուսաստան սիկտիր" (Translated: Russia get the f#@k out). Yes, Armenians are telling Russians to get the f#@k out, in Turkish nonetheless, and demanding that Russians stop their "occupation" of Armenia. This is a recipe for a major disaster. Armenians are once again flirting with suicidal thoughts. Westerners and Turks know (obviously a lot better than us Armenians) that Armenia can't survive without Russia. They also know that Armenia's "independence" from Russia will by-default mean Armenian "dependence" on Turkey. This is why Western/Turkish interests and their Armenian followers want to convince us Armenians that we can do without Russia. Some reminders are therefore in order -
Turkish Advice: Armenian diaspora, focus on Russia rather than Turkey! http://www.hurriyetdailynews. com/armenian-diaspora-focus- on-russia-rather-than-turkey
Paul Goble: ‘Russia has De Facto Occupied Armenia,’ Yerevan Expert Says: http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/10/russia-has-de-facto-occupied-armenia.html
Amanda Paul: Russia and the militarization of the South Caucasus: http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul/russia-and-the-militarization-of-the-south-caucasus_393399.html
EurasiaNet: Armenia: With Friends Like Russia, Who Needs Enemies: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/72616
Paul Goble: Russia will betray Armenians, if needed: http://news.am/eng/news/290706.html
Russian General Leonid Ivashov: Turkey Seeks Separation Between Russia and Armenia: http://news.am/eng/news/36696. html
USA trying to break up Armenian-Russian military relations, general says: http://www.eurasianet.org/ resource/a...0005/0040.html
Richard Giragosian: My work with the Turkish government is in support of normalizing relations: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2cz9vw_adnan-oktar-s-live-discussion-on-a9-tv-with-richard-giragosian-director-of-the-armenian-think-tank-r_news
Is Russia a Friend or Foe?: http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2013/06/25/friend-or-foe/#sthash.2kjO7B8l.dpu
Sleeping with Our Enemy: Russia Sells Weapons to Azerbaijan: http://hetq.am/eng/news/58661/sleeping-with-our-enemy-russia-sells-weapons-to-azerbaijan.html
Lragir: Russia and The Armenian Genocide: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/35244
Growing alliance between Russia, Armenia troubling: US ads: http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/04/20/growing-alliance-between-russia-armenia-troubling-us-ads
U.S. to help Armenia reduce economic dependence on Russia: http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/214483/
George Friedman: “Russian presence in Armenia is bad for Turkey”: http://theriseofrussia. blogspot.com/2010/11/arye-gut- israeli-jewish-expert-in.html
The recognition among high level Western officials that the south Caucasus will fall directly into their hands if only Russia is pushed out of the region, is the reason why they fund and assist politicians, activists and news agencies in Armenia that disseminate anti-Russian rhetoric. Their agenda is gradually working, as more and more Armenians are being convinced that Russia is indeed an enemy and that Armenia can go it alone in the region. Despite Armenian pride and arrogance, Armenians remain one of the world's most easily manipulated and mislead sheeple. Due to unique Armenian traits (that are also better recognized by Armenia's enemies), Armenians are proving very susceptible to manipulation and self-destructive behavior. As I said, the entire political narrative has been hijacked by Western agents and their brain-dead followers. Virtually all of Armenia's news press (including ones aligned with the government) and Armenian cyberspace (where Western agents ran wild) is now saturated by anti-Russian rhetoric. Reality has been twisted out of recognition. Perception has been turned on its head.Could Turkey get closer to Armenia just to anger Russia?: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/could-turkey-get-closer-to-armenia-just-to-anger-russia.aspx?PageID=238&NID=100444&NewsCatID=412
Overall, this situation is creating a political culture in the country that does not allow the pursuit of deeper, more effective relations with Armenia's most important and, in fact, only ally in the world. This situation is instead creating a political mindset that allows Western agents to even more freely operate throughout Armenian society. Consequently, the seeds of Russophobia (seeds of Armenia's very own destruction) is being abundantly sown throughout Armenia today. These seeds will eventually bare their toxic fruit. We are repeating the mistakes of our ancestors.
Response from Moscow
Despite duplicitous behavior by our officials, Moscow will not do to Armenia what it did to Ukraine and Georgia essentially because Armenia has not yet crossed any of Moscow's red lines and also because Armenia is geostrategically very important for Moscow. Simply put: Armenia's destruction or its fall to Western/Turkish interests is not in Russia's interests. Moscow has therefore been very professional, and I would even say nice, with our officials. In response to the spread of Western disinformation about Russia, Russian media outlets have therefore felt compelled to explain a few things as a parent would to a child, and in doing so they also are reminding us Armenians of some of the strategic benefits Armenia continues to enjoy due to its alliance with Russia -
Moscow: "Azerbaijan is not our ally": http://news.az/articles/politics/108084
Lilia Gumerova: Russia is leading partner of Armenia: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Lilia-Gumerova-Russia-is-leading-partner-of-Armenia.html
Alexander Krylov: Devastation of Armenia is not in Russia's interests: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/Devastation-of-Armenia-is-not-in-Russia-s-interests-expert-says.html
Alexander Gusyev: “Iran is building a road through Azerbaijan because of Armenian leadership’s indifference”: http://rusarminfo.ru/alexander-gusyev-iran-is-building-a-road-through-azerbaijan-because-of-armenian-leaderships-indifference/
Russian entrepreneurs expect Armenia to be EEU-Iran link: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/849708/russian-entrepreneurs-expect-armenia-to-be-eeu-iran-link.html
Mikhail Remizov: "Armenia distances greatly from Russia in the field of the historical memory policy’’: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/Mikhail-Remizov-Armenia-distances-greatly-from-Russia-in-the-field-of-the-historical-memory-policy’’.html
Sergey Markedonov: “It’s positive that Putin talked about problems between Moscow and Yerevan”: http://rusarminfo.ru/opinion-its-positive-that-putin-talked-about-problems-between-moscow-and-yerevan/
Russia's Rosatom negotiates nuclear waste treatment with Armenia's Metsamor plant: http://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-rosatom-negotiates-nuclear-waste-treatment-with-armenia-s-metsamor-plant-98676/
Armenian exports to Russia nearly double in four months: http://arka.am/en/news/economy/armenian_exports_to_russia_nearly_double_in_four_months_/
Gazprom Armenia CEO says gas price may be lowered further: http://arka.am/en/news/society/gazprom_armenia_ceo_says_gas_price_may_be_lowered_further/
Russia's armament supplies to Armenia already under way: http://arka.am/en/news/politics15709
Russia to strengthen Armenia’s airspace: http://news.az/articles/world/108886
It looks as if Moscow wants to reassure our public that Russia remains Armenia's ally and that Armenia has nothing to fear. But just imagine Russian officials feeling the need to explain to us Armenians simple things like, Russia does not want Armenia's devastation and that Armenians need to be more responsible with their country and their relationship with their allies. Imagine Russians imploring Armenians to better understand geopolitics. Imagine Russian officials feeling the need to explain to us Armenians that while they are our BFF they still have the need good relations with Baku. I personally find it deeply embarrassing that Russians feel they have to break with diplomacy to explain things that should essentially be commonsense. I guess Russians are genuinely worried that we Armenians might get so enraged that we may actually commit collective suicide, as we have done on so many other occasions throughout our history. Perhaps this was one of the reasons why Lt. General Samvel Babayan suddenly showed up in Armenia recently -Russia Defense Report: Russian Forces in Armenia: https://southfront.org/russia-defense-report-russian-forces-in-armenia/
Սա Ղարաբաղի հարց չէ, Հայոց պետականության հարց է: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA1VKEVN3DE
Samvel Babayan: I am back to Artsakh and it is for the people to decide the rest: http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=B4FD17E0-2345-11E6-BD9C0EB7C0D21663
The well known military leader had a falling out with Armenian officials some fifteen years ago. And he had been living in Russia for that past few years. Now, he's back and he has some very interesting things to say. In his interviews, Lt. General Babayan claims to have established high level ties with political and military officials in Russia during his stay there. He says Armenia's attitude towards Russia is flawed and that Armenians need to be more responsible when it comes to Artsakh. He also says Armenia's military needs fundamental changes. He also warned against underestimating Azeris. Judging from his comments, it also seems that he is in principle open to the idea of a negotiated settlement with Baku, given that it's done from a position of strength. In the following video link, two of our nation's more sober minded political observers share their thoughts on Babayan's return. The men in the following two videos are among the rare voices of sanity in the muck and mire of Armenian style politics -Former Karabakh strongman returns to Armenia after four-day war: https://www.armenianow.com/en/news/politics/2016/05/26/armenia-samvel-babayan-karabakh-return-politics-security/3893/
Գ. Եղիազարյանը հուսով է, որ Սամվել Բաբայանին պաշտոն կտան: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0aIncZQm18
Սամվել Բաբայանը հենց այնպես չի վերադարձել.«Ազատամարտիկների դաշինքը» կհամագործակցի Բաբայանի հետ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MaD5olv0ww
Due to official Yerevan's incompetence and corruption Armenia has suffered setbacks on the battlefield against Azerbaijan and Armenia's Western shills have hijacked the political narrative in an attempt to drive a wedge between Armenia and Russia. Consequently, there is a major war (essentially a Western/Turkish instigated war) looming on the not too distant horizon in the south Caucasus and it is coming at a time when our military has revealed flaws and when Armenian-Russian relations are strained. Armenia won't survive a regional tumult without the Bear at its side. That's a fact.
The first casualty of war is the truth
There had been talk in the past that Moscow was selling modern weapons systems to Baku under an agreement that the arms in question would not be used against Armenia or Artsakh. When the war broke out in April, numerous Armenian news reports and political commentators began claiming that the Azerbaijani military had been using their recently purchased weapons systems (e.g. T-90 tanks, Mi-35 helicopters, Smerch multiple launch rocket systems and TOS-1 thermobaric flamethrowers) against the defense forces of Artsakh. Now, it is apparent that Baku had in fact honored its agreement with Moscow and the Azeri military had not used any of the weapons systems in question during their military operations. Armenian officials and news reports claiming otherwise were deliberate lies. I say this because, as of this date, and its been over two months after the events in question, there has not been any evidence to suggest that Baku had used such weapons systems. As we can see, one of the very first casualties of the four day war was indeed the truth. In my opinion, Armenian officials put out such disinformation in order to put pressure on Moscow over its strong desire to settle the Artsakh dispute and also to perhaps conceal their corrupt ways.
I suspected disinformation from our side quite early during the fighting. Initially, when I first heard reports about the weapons in question, I was somewhat surprised that Azeri officials would do such a thing ultimately because Azeri officials must have known that doing so would anger Moscow. I know Baku would rather not want to upset Moscow, because I know Baku has put a lot of effort in crafting good relations with Moscow. Although many of us Armenians are under the impression that Azeris are stupid, the stupid ones are actually us. I say this because I see Baku being more careful in its dealings with Moscow; I see Baku placing more emphasis on developing close ties with Moscow; I see Baku being more proactive inside Moscow. In the following article we once again see Dictator Aliyev expressing more political wisdom than any of our officials -
President Aliyev: No allergy in Azerbaijan for Russia's selling arms to Armenia: http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/2543191.html
Allow me to elaborate further on this topic for those who don't fully understand military matters: When tanks get destroyed, their wreckage is difficult to retrieve, especially when they are near the line of contact and therefore within their opponent's line of sight. You would need specialized equipment to tow the wreckage away. That takes a lot of time and effort, even if you were not exposed to enemy fire. Just like they left dozens of their dead soldiers right in front of our positions, they would have had no choice but to leave their burning tanks in the fields as well. Also consider that the tanks that were destroyed on our side were quickly registered by video and photo by all sides. The following is a Russian website showing confirmed kills during the four day war (click on the show button to access the page) -
Потери военной техники в армяно-азербайджанском конфликте в Нагорном Карабахе (с 2016): http://lostarmour.info/karabakh/
Of the hundreds of photos and videos we have seen there is absolutely no evidence that we destroyed any of their main battle tanks. Moreover, there was never a sighting of T-90s, Tos-1, Mi-35 or the recently delivered Smerch multiple launch rocket systems anywhere on or near the battlefield. As I said, I suspect Armenian officials put out the reports to put pressure on Moscow and conceal their incompetence and corruption. But the damage is done. One can now find a multitude of news reports about "newly delivered Russian weapons being used to kill our boys" all over the internet and in the mouths of virtually all Armenians around the world. Armenian governmental officials have allowed Armenia's Western agents to hijack the narrative and mislead the Armenian people. Armenian officials are trying to be "shrewd" but such behavior belongs in a Middle Eastern bazaar and not in geopolitics, not in the south Caucasus and definitely not against the Russian Bear that makes Armenia existence in the south Caucasus possible.
Regarding Russian weapons
The thing that Armenians generally speaking have a very hard time understanding is realpolitik. I can't yet fully explain why, but that's simply how it is. It does not matter how wealthy or how educated an Armenian is, when it comes to serious political matters, the Armenian acts like emotional child. An Armenian can be brilliant in science, medicine, literature, art, business, sports, etc. But, somehow, when it comes to politics, the Armenian is a self-destructive peasant regardless of his or her social status. I personally think this is a serious matter that has its roots in our culture (up bringing) and genetic makeup (i.e. breeding). Political ignorance is so pervasive in Armenian society that there is actually an Armenian word for describing politically ignorant Armenians engaging in serious political analysis: It's called, կոշկակարների քաղաքականութիւն. Translated, it means the politics of shoemakers. In other words: Tradesmen (i.e. ignorant people) arrogantly trying to make sense out of stuff that is well above their heads. For such people, politics is like a domestic dispute or a street fight. And the sad part is, it's not merely tradesmen that engage in կոշկակարների քաղաքականութիւն but doctors, professors, lawyers, clergy and even politicians. Therefore, since talking to Armenians about geopolitics is like talking to a child about the meaning of life, I find it always necessary to repeat a few things.
We are once again failing to realize that Armenia and Artsakh
would not exist today had it not been for the Russian factor in the
south Caucasus. Azerbaijan would have ordered full scale military
operations against Artsakh a long time ago had it not been for Baku's fear of the
Russian Bear. Moreover, Turkey would have done to Armenia what it regularly does
to Iraq and Syria had there not been Russian boots on the ground in
Armenia. And all those who demand the eviction of the Russian military from
Armenia would be the first ones to flee the country once Turks mass
troops on Armenia's borders. Ironically, those of us who want the most independence from
Russia seem to be the ones yelling the loudest about Russians not
rushing to save Armenians from Azeris. Moreover, we better realize that Armenia's independence from Russia will only translate into Armenia's dependence on Western powers and Turkey. Think about this next time you hear one of our so-called "nationalists" say, we are not pro-West, we only want independence from Russia. Armenia is too underdeveloped, too small, too poor, too landlocked and too remote. Armenia is a dependent country. Therefore, Armenia's independence from one side will by default mean Armenia's dependence on the other side. Anyone today calling into
question Armenia's alliance with Russia is either an idiot or a Western
funded traitor. I cannot think of any other explanation at this point. I'd like to now address and refute other attempts at disinformation:
That Armenia's military is mostly equipped with weapons made during the 1980s is a normal thing for virtually all militaries around the world. In fact, the military arsenal that Russia and the US possess are also mostly 1980s era weapons. This topic should therefore be a none issue. Yet, it's the talk of the town because, as I have been saying, the political narrative has been hijacked by Western operatives and their brain-dead followers. Complaining about Armenia's 1980s era weaponry is a Western tactic to sour relations between Yerevan and Moscow, and it's working. Moreover, the $200 million weapons deliveries that Armenia has not yet received is also a none issue. By contractual agreement, the weapons systems in question were to be delivered to Armenia by 2017. Moreover, purchasing modern weapons systems such as the ones that will be delivered to Armenia is not like ordering pizza. Each weapons system has to be produced to the needs and specifications of the Armenian armed forces. Complaining about the yet undelivered weapons systems is also a Western tactic meant to sour relations between Yerevan and Moscow, and it's working. I would also like to add here that Armenia currently has more than enough Russian made weapons systems to successfully defend itself against Azerbaijan. In other words, Armenia's security is not dependent on these new deliveries. But, like I keep saying, all this is a moot point in the minds of most Armenians today because the political narrative has been fully hijacked by Western agents and their brain dead followers throughout Armenian society.
That Armenia's military is mostly equipped with weapons made during the 1980s is a normal thing for virtually all militaries around the world. In fact, the military arsenal that Russia and the US possess are also mostly 1980s era weapons. This topic should therefore be a none issue. Yet, it's the talk of the town because, as I have been saying, the political narrative has been hijacked by Western operatives and their brain-dead followers. Complaining about Armenia's 1980s era weaponry is a Western tactic to sour relations between Yerevan and Moscow, and it's working. Moreover, the $200 million weapons deliveries that Armenia has not yet received is also a none issue. By contractual agreement, the weapons systems in question were to be delivered to Armenia by 2017. Moreover, purchasing modern weapons systems such as the ones that will be delivered to Armenia is not like ordering pizza. Each weapons system has to be produced to the needs and specifications of the Armenian armed forces. Complaining about the yet undelivered weapons systems is also a Western tactic meant to sour relations between Yerevan and Moscow, and it's working. I would also like to add here that Armenia currently has more than enough Russian made weapons systems to successfully defend itself against Azerbaijan. In other words, Armenia's security is not dependent on these new deliveries. But, like I keep saying, all this is a moot point in the minds of most Armenians today because the political narrative has been fully hijacked by Western agents and their brain dead followers throughout Armenian society.
Regarding Russian arms sales to Baku: Moscow's dealings with Baku does not mean Russia is abandoning Armenia (Moscow would sooner occupy Armenia than abandon it). Russia is not taking sides against Armenia (had Russia taken sides against Armenia, we would not have an Armenia today). Remember that we are talking about a tiny, impoverished and blockaded nation that would not be able to defend itself against any of its predatory neighbors had it not been for the military and economic support it has been receiving from Russia. The same actually applies to Artsakh. Had Russia actually been against Artsakh being under Armenian control, the situation there would have been a whole lot different today.
This is the bottom line: Oil rich Baku has the money to purchase whatever it wants from whoever it wants. Armenia does not have that luxury. Russia has been the only reason why an impoverished Armenia has been able to maintain military parity with an oil rich Azerbaijan. Also, Russia is the only thing keeping Turks on their side of the border, thereby allowing us Armenians to concentrate our limited resources on the Azeri threat. Once more I implore you to think: If Russia was to stop selling arms to Baku it would essentially be a symbolic measure because Baku has the money to purchase modern arms from places like Israel, Turkey, Ukraine and China to name a few. Moscow therefore sells to an oil rich Baku what Baku wants and it gives to an impoverished Yerevan what Yerevan needs. Moreover, Russian officials know that Azerbaijan can easily turn into yet another hotbed of pan-Turkic and/or a center Islamic extremism right on its border. Russian official therefore keep doing their best to stay in the political game in Azerbaijan. In the big picture, maintaining Russian influence in Baku is also in Armenia's long-term interests. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's comments about this matter were revealing, but I wonder if Armenians were listening? -
"If we imagine for a minute that Russia has given up this role (of arms seller), we well understand that this place will not stay vacant... They will buy weapons in other countries, and the degree of their deadliness won't change in any way... But at the same time, this could destroy the existing balance of forces (in the region)"
The Russian Prime Minister basically said this: If Moscow broke its ties with Baku, then Western, Israeli, Turkish and Islamist interests will inevitably fill the void; the region will not be less militarized; and Armenia will not be able to maintain its military parity with a wealthy Azerbaijan. In other words, PM Medvedev is saying Moscow would lose control of the situation in the region if it stopped its dealings with Baku. From an emotional perspective, I don't like the thought of our allies in Moscow selling weapons to our enemies in Baku. From a political perspective, however, I fully agree with the comments made by the Russian prime minister. I think the situation with Baku could be much worst had Russia not been in the picture in Azerbaijan. In my opinion, Moscow is executing a very sophisticated political approach to a very complex dispute. And Western-activists, like the filthy smut-peddlers that they are, are exploiting Moscow's political predicament and vulnerability to incite Russophobia inside Armenia. None of what I'm saying here is rocket science. People with normally functioning brains should be able to understand all this. Apparently, that does not apply to many Armenians. It's simply amazing for me to see just how politically illiterate we Armenians are.
Since our officials have allowed Western propagandists and their followers in our society to hijack the political narrative and sow distrust against Russia, the following kind of information, which includes an article about a US trained Azeri special forces soldier who was killed during the fighting in April, gets very, very little exposure time in Armenian society -
Since our officials have allowed Western propagandists and their followers in our society to hijack the political narrative and sow distrust against Russia, the following kind of information, which includes an article about a US trained Azeri special forces soldier who was killed during the fighting in April, gets very, very little exposure time in Armenian society -
Azerbaijani special squad lieutenant colonel eliminated in April had been trained in USA: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/847243/azerbaijani-special-squad-lieutenant-colonel-eliminated-in-april-had-been-trained-in-usa.html
American military contractors MPRI Inc is training Azeri marksmen: http://www.militaryindustrialcomplex.com/contract_detail.asp?contract_id=81
US Naval Special Ops Demos Training in Azerbaijan: http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=26294
The Sunday Times: British special forces carried out secret trainings in Azerbaijan: http://www.panorama.am/en/society/2013/10/21/sunday-times/
Azerbaijan Makes Massive Israeli Weapons: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65053
U.S. alloted $20 mln in military aid to Azerbaijan, $41.000 to Armenia: http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/212592/US_alloted_20_mln_in_military_aid_to_Azerbaijan_41000_to_Armenia
Is a US-Financed Azeri Satellite A Threat to Armenia’s Security?: http://asbarez.com/94756/is-a-us-financed-azeri-satellite-a-threat-to-armenia%E2%80%99s-security/
Azerbaijan and Israel’s Aerospace Industry. A Worrying Concern for Armenia or Iran?: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2015/05/04/azerbaijan-and-israels-aerospace-industry-a-worrying-concern-for-armenia-or-iran/
Turkish Jets to Deliver American Nuclear Warheads: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-given-possession-of-nuclear-warheads-
Yerevan's concerns about a forced peace settlement is fully understandable. Yerevan's concerns about Russian arms sales to Baku is fully understandable. How Yerevan is reacting to these matters is not acceptable. My worry primarily has to do with allowing our Western activists to seed the current generation with Russophobic ideas. The seeds in question are the seeds of our destruction. The situation is now getting really bad. We have a country that is dependent on Russia for survival, yet the majority of the people in that country thinks Russians are backstabbers and an increasingly number think Armenia can do without Russia. Yerevan has thus created ripe conditions for Western and Turkish intelligence agencies to exploit. This is a recipe for disaster. Armenian officials have created this situation essentially because they want to use the West against Russia and vice-versa. It's all about their personal survival and making a few dollars along the way. But what they have instead managed to do is create a situation where both the West and Russia are unhappy with Armenia. It sometime feels as if we are stuck in a nasty cycle.
Armenia stuck between Rome and Persia - once again
Just as nature is constantly rejuvenating itself through a constant cycle of death and reincarnation, mankind and the history it creates also repeats itself. Like the cycles of life seen in nature, time is not linear but circular. It's like a cosmic play constantly being replayed, albeit with variations. Particulars like names and locations change with time, but the spiritual essence or the core essence seems to remain constant. Big organisms recycle as big organisms. Small organisms recycle as small organisms. Some life forms recycle as predators, some life forms recycle as grazers, some life forms recycle as parasites, etc. It's all part of our natural destiny and every life form has genetic memory.
In previous commentaries I spoke about similarities between the political situation we find ourselves in today and those we faced one hundred years ago and one thousand years ago. This time, I would like to take a brief look at historic similarities that are seen between the political predicaments we face today and those that existed within our nation two thousand years ago.
The Western world, the United States in particular, is no doubt the reincarnation of Rome. Increasing numbers of Americans are beginning to realize this. While due to historical circumstances Russia has taken upon itself the title of Byzantium, Russia is in my opinion the manifestation of ancient Persia. For thousands of years, warlike Iranic peoples such as Scythians and Cimmerians and their decedents inhabited much of what is today southern Russia. Many place names in the region actually testify to that region's Iranic genesis. There is therefore considerable amount ancient Iranic blood flowing in Russian veins today. With blood comes genetic memory. Geopolitically, Russia today plays almost exactly the same role Persia played against Rome two thousand years ago. And as it was back then with Persia, Russia today, although very powerful, is constantly on the defensive against the West. As it was back then with Rome, the Anglo-Americans power and influence today is mostly rooted in its cultural and socioeconomic advancements. And as it was back then, Armenia today finds itself in the middle of two competing superpowers and has, in the spirit of its ancestors, decided to take the middle road - essentially because the Western lifestyle and all the benefits that come from dealing with the West is simply too irresistible. Armenia is therefore stuck between Rome and Persia - once again.
From about the fifth century BC to about the fifth century AD Armenia was part of Persian world. In fact, at the time, Armenian civilization was virtually indistinguishable from Persian civilization. For nearly a thousand years, a line of Armenian rulers, including the Artashesian and Arshakuni dynasties, were scions of Persian royalty and aristocracy. However, by the first century BC, Roman power was on the increase. Tigran II's short-lived imperial adventures in the mid-first century BC had in fact drawn Roman power and influence further into the Armenian Highlands. By the time of Christ's birth, Rome was a hegemonic power in our part of the world and it had also gained a major foothold in the Armenian Highlands. Our part of the world therefore had two competing superpowers, Rome and Persia. The Persian Empire at the time, already centuries old, was relatively speaking weaker than Rome which was on the rise. Moreover, Persia, a traditional/conservative power, did not have the powerful lure of Rome's vibrant, dynamic and progressive civilization. People around the world, including those within the Persian Empire, desired the Roman way of life as well as Roman citizenship. Roman superiority over Persia was also seen in the fact that all battles fought between Rome and Persia were fought in and/or over Persian spheres of influence. Rome was a constant threat to Persia, whereas Persia was never really a threat to Rome. Persian rulers had to therefore reluctantly acquiesce to the new Roman reality on the ground in Asia Minor and the Levant. Armenia, culturally and politically part of the Persian orbit, had suddenly found itself stuck in the middle of the two competing superpowers of the time.
Even before Roman legions arrived at the gates of Armenia, Hellenic and Roman cultural influences had already seeped well into the Armenian Highlands (through Alexander the Macedonian's conquests) and increasing numbers of Armenians had begun feeling an affinity towards the lands that lay to their west. With part of western Armenia (Armenia Minor) already under Roman occupation and with the increasing of Roman influence in the rest of Armenia, Persians were forced to come to a compromise with Romans. Starting from around the first century AD, Armenia were more-or-less managed jointly by Persia and Rome. Armenia was politically divided between Rome and Persia. Armenian rulers therefore had to be appointed by both Rome and Persia.
Eerily similar to how today's Armenia has been ruled by presidents approved by Moscow but their administrations conspicuously includes officials that represent Western interests, the two competing empires two thousand years ago had decided that Armenia's rulers were to be of Persian aristocratic lineage but crowned by Rome. The tug-of-war over Armenia had begun in earnest. After centuries of relative calm, sociopolitical unrest, assassinations, conspiracies, interventions and wars were now common in Armenia as Persia and Rome fought to gain more-and-more leverage over the strategic mountainous region that had become a buffer between them.
As already noted above, Armenians had began flirting with
western (i.e. Greco-Roman) values as early as the second century BC. King Tigran II was Armenia's first beardless monarch. His son, Ardavazd II, is said to have written plays in the Greek style. Starting with Alexander's invasions, Armenians were exposed to a very vibrant civilization coming from western lands. The dynamic cosmopolitan lifestyle of Romans at the time was irresistible not only for
relatively speaking backward Armenian highlanders but also for the rest of humanity, which Romans essentially viewed as barbarians (i.e. third world peoples). Since political influence always travels on the coattails of cultural influences, Roman power was far reaching and overwhelming. Therefore, Roman influence was in Armenia to stay. But the problem was, so was Persian influence. Armenia at the time was still part of the Persian world. But having one foot with Rome and one foot with Persia, Armenia had become a hotly contested territory and was now slowly beginning to be torn apart.
The first century AD Armenian King Trdat I (scion of Persian aristocracy but crowned by Rome) did what was expected of him: He maintained close relations with both Persia and Rome, but his sentiments (like that of many Armenians at the time) tilted toward Rome. At one point during his rule, he famously visited Rome with a royal entourage of thousands. He had meetings with high level Roman officials. Upon his return to Armenia, he used Roman money and Roman builders to construct a Roman style temple at his summer residence in Garni, Armenia. Ironically, it was in this Roman financed and constructed temple that Armenians would continue praying to their Armeno-Persian gods. The construction of the temple at Garni at the time was a drastic departure from Armenia's Zoroastrian places of worship. The temple officially heralded the encroachment of Roman values deep into the Armenian heartland.
The temple at Garni was to be the new western financed institution where Armenians continued to practice their eastern traditions. Thus was born Armenian style "complimentary politics".
While Armenia was fully within the Persian orbit (the five hundred years before the birth of Christ) Armenia enjoyed relative peace and prosperity. During the five hundreds years after the birth of Christ, when Rome and Persia were constantly clashing over Armenia, the country suffered devastation after devastation. The wars and unrest that Armenia began suffering at the time continued on for many centuries thereafter, finally coming to an end in the early 19th century when the Russian Czar incorporated Caucasian Armenia into the Russian Empire.
Nevertheless, for Armenia's rulers at the time, what was a little devastation from time to time? From their perspective, the Roman lifestyle and the benefits of maintaining Roman ties was simply too irresistible to abandon. Increasingly feeling aloof and therefore feeling alienated from their ancestors in Persia, Armenian royalty, who ostensibly were Zoroastrians by faith, decided to further enrage Persia by adopting a new religion in 301 AD.
I'd like to remind the reader that until fairly recently in history, religion was essentially what political systems are today. Since 325 AD, when Constantine I officially recognized a certain branch of Christianity within his vast and prosperous empire, powerful and prosperous European powers have used Christianity to advance their political and economic agendas around the world in almost exactly the same way as Western powers have been using "Democracy" to push their political and economic agenda around the world today. If the advanced powers of earlier times were using the concept of Trinity, Christ's nature, salvation and the last judgment to subjugate and exploit backward and primitive peoples around the world, today's advanced powers are using the concept of political elections, free speech, human rights, civil society, etc., as a way to subjugate and exploit today's backward and primitive peoples around the world. The new Western religion called Democracy, like its predecessor, Christianity, is again captivating the barbarians of this world and is spreading like wildfire. Ultimately, we know what Christianity brought to the world, we yet have to find out what Democracy will bring, but the signs are not to encouraging.
By adopting Christianity as its state religion in 301 AD, Armenia was officially breaking away from Persia's orbit. After about one thousand years of being part of the Persian world, Armenia was essentially giving Persia the middle finger and adopting a newly developing sociopolitical system gaining popularity in Roman lands. Needless to say, this essentially intensified the already strained relations between Armenia and Persia. This naturally caused internal problems between Armenia's powerful traditional nobles who were pro-Persian and "progressive" royals and clergy who were for the most part pro-Roman. The historic event that this situation led to should have therefore been expected. Having had enough of the relentless political unrest and the constant wars, Armenia's pro-Persian nobles finally decided to deposed their king and asked the Persian emperor to take direct control over Armenia. Needless to say, Persia gladly accepted the wonderful albeit unusual offer. And with Rome still holding on to parts of Armenia, Armenia was therefore divided between Rome and Persia.
After the Armenian king was deposed, Persians and their Armenian allies tried to cleanse Persian-Armenia of its western influences (i.e. Christianity). This essentially led to the Battle of Avarayr in 451 AD. Eerily similar to how Western powers abandoned Armenians to their fate after the First World War, much to the dismay of the pro-Roman Armenians, Rome, or rather Byzantium, did not intervene to help Christian Armenians against Zoroastrian Persians. Without help from Rome, Armenians had no chance and quickly lost the battle against Persia. But Armenian "fedayees" of the time continued the battle for self-determination in Persian-Armenia. Armenians proved resilient in their stubborn desire to maintain their newly developing cultural and political separation from Persia. And this led to the famous Treaty of Nvarsak in 484 AD, when the Persian Empire, under increasing pressure on its frontier lands, reluctantly gave in to Armenian demands and allowed Armenians the freedom of worship.
But, Armenia would remain partitioned between Rome and Persia and it would never again enjoy the peace and prosperity it had enjoyed as an independent kingdom within the Persian orbit. The Bagratid dynasty, which came into existence in the early Islamic era, and which some Armenian historians claim was a Jewish ruling dynasty in the country, proved utterly disastrous for Armenia. Ironically, Armenia would suffer the greatest at the hands of Christians from western lands. In 1045 AD, Byzantines finally put an end to the Armenian kingdom and by doing so unknowingly opened wide the gates of Asia Minor to Asiatic invasions. Roman/Greek stubbornness and treachery coupled with Armenian stubbornness and political shortsightedness thus became the foundation upon which the Ottoman Empire came into existence in the fifteenth century. By the early twentieth century, Asia Minor was cleansed of all Armenians and Greeks.
Ultimately, the Roman-Persian decision two thousand years ago to jointly rule Armenia inadvertently began a long series of unfortunate events, the repercussions of which we are still suffering from today. It was a great mistake for us to distance ourselves from Persia in favor of Rome. By ancient standards, Rome was a faraway power. Persia, however, was a powerful neighbor. Our ancestors alienated themselves from their natural allies for a chance to practice a foreign religion and taste the Roman lifestyle, and all they got in return was war after war and eventually, the loss of statehood and dispersion. Very similar to the political climate in Armenia today, Armenian leaders back then wearily walked a tightrope between Rome and Persia. A portion of Armenian society favored Rome, a portion favored Persia. Eventually, there came a time when Armenian nobles, having had enough of the constant wars and political instability, deposed their king and asked Persia to come in and take control of Armenia. I hope it does not come to that this time around, but if it does, then so be it.
The first century AD Armenian King Trdat I (scion of Persian aristocracy but crowned by Rome) did what was expected of him: He maintained close relations with both Persia and Rome, but his sentiments (like that of many Armenians at the time) tilted toward Rome. At one point during his rule, he famously visited Rome with a royal entourage of thousands. He had meetings with high level Roman officials. Upon his return to Armenia, he used Roman money and Roman builders to construct a Roman style temple at his summer residence in Garni, Armenia. Ironically, it was in this Roman financed and constructed temple that Armenians would continue praying to their Armeno-Persian gods. The construction of the temple at Garni at the time was a drastic departure from Armenia's Zoroastrian places of worship. The temple officially heralded the encroachment of Roman values deep into the Armenian heartland.
The temple at Garni was to be the new western financed institution where Armenians continued to practice their eastern traditions. Thus was born Armenian style "complimentary politics".
While Armenia was fully within the Persian orbit (the five hundred years before the birth of Christ) Armenia enjoyed relative peace and prosperity. During the five hundreds years after the birth of Christ, when Rome and Persia were constantly clashing over Armenia, the country suffered devastation after devastation. The wars and unrest that Armenia began suffering at the time continued on for many centuries thereafter, finally coming to an end in the early 19th century when the Russian Czar incorporated Caucasian Armenia into the Russian Empire.
Nevertheless, for Armenia's rulers at the time, what was a little devastation from time to time? From their perspective, the Roman lifestyle and the benefits of maintaining Roman ties was simply too irresistible to abandon. Increasingly feeling aloof and therefore feeling alienated from their ancestors in Persia, Armenian royalty, who ostensibly were Zoroastrians by faith, decided to further enrage Persia by adopting a new religion in 301 AD.
I'd like to remind the reader that until fairly recently in history, religion was essentially what political systems are today. Since 325 AD, when Constantine I officially recognized a certain branch of Christianity within his vast and prosperous empire, powerful and prosperous European powers have used Christianity to advance their political and economic agendas around the world in almost exactly the same way as Western powers have been using "Democracy" to push their political and economic agenda around the world today. If the advanced powers of earlier times were using the concept of Trinity, Christ's nature, salvation and the last judgment to subjugate and exploit backward and primitive peoples around the world, today's advanced powers are using the concept of political elections, free speech, human rights, civil society, etc., as a way to subjugate and exploit today's backward and primitive peoples around the world. The new Western religion called Democracy, like its predecessor, Christianity, is again captivating the barbarians of this world and is spreading like wildfire. Ultimately, we know what Christianity brought to the world, we yet have to find out what Democracy will bring, but the signs are not to encouraging.
By adopting Christianity as its state religion in 301 AD, Armenia was officially breaking away from Persia's orbit. After about one thousand years of being part of the Persian world, Armenia was essentially giving Persia the middle finger and adopting a newly developing sociopolitical system gaining popularity in Roman lands. Needless to say, this essentially intensified the already strained relations between Armenia and Persia. This naturally caused internal problems between Armenia's powerful traditional nobles who were pro-Persian and "progressive" royals and clergy who were for the most part pro-Roman. The historic event that this situation led to should have therefore been expected. Having had enough of the relentless political unrest and the constant wars, Armenia's pro-Persian nobles finally decided to deposed their king and asked the Persian emperor to take direct control over Armenia. Needless to say, Persia gladly accepted the wonderful albeit unusual offer. And with Rome still holding on to parts of Armenia, Armenia was therefore divided between Rome and Persia.
After the Armenian king was deposed, Persians and their Armenian allies tried to cleanse Persian-Armenia of its western influences (i.e. Christianity). This essentially led to the Battle of Avarayr in 451 AD. Eerily similar to how Western powers abandoned Armenians to their fate after the First World War, much to the dismay of the pro-Roman Armenians, Rome, or rather Byzantium, did not intervene to help Christian Armenians against Zoroastrian Persians. Without help from Rome, Armenians had no chance and quickly lost the battle against Persia. But Armenian "fedayees" of the time continued the battle for self-determination in Persian-Armenia. Armenians proved resilient in their stubborn desire to maintain their newly developing cultural and political separation from Persia. And this led to the famous Treaty of Nvarsak in 484 AD, when the Persian Empire, under increasing pressure on its frontier lands, reluctantly gave in to Armenian demands and allowed Armenians the freedom of worship.
But, Armenia would remain partitioned between Rome and Persia and it would never again enjoy the peace and prosperity it had enjoyed as an independent kingdom within the Persian orbit. The Bagratid dynasty, which came into existence in the early Islamic era, and which some Armenian historians claim was a Jewish ruling dynasty in the country, proved utterly disastrous for Armenia. Ironically, Armenia would suffer the greatest at the hands of Christians from western lands. In 1045 AD, Byzantines finally put an end to the Armenian kingdom and by doing so unknowingly opened wide the gates of Asia Minor to Asiatic invasions. Roman/Greek stubbornness and treachery coupled with Armenian stubbornness and political shortsightedness thus became the foundation upon which the Ottoman Empire came into existence in the fifteenth century. By the early twentieth century, Asia Minor was cleansed of all Armenians and Greeks.
Ultimately, the Roman-Persian decision two thousand years ago to jointly rule Armenia inadvertently began a long series of unfortunate events, the repercussions of which we are still suffering from today. It was a great mistake for us to distance ourselves from Persia in favor of Rome. By ancient standards, Rome was a faraway power. Persia, however, was a powerful neighbor. Our ancestors alienated themselves from their natural allies for a chance to practice a foreign religion and taste the Roman lifestyle, and all they got in return was war after war and eventually, the loss of statehood and dispersion. Very similar to the political climate in Armenia today, Armenian leaders back then wearily walked a tightrope between Rome and Persia. A portion of Armenian society favored Rome, a portion favored Persia. Eventually, there came a time when Armenian nobles, having had enough of the constant wars and political instability, deposed their king and asked Persia to come in and take control of Armenia. I hope it does not come to that this time around, but if it does, then so be it.
Although I recognize Vardan Mamikonian as being one of Armenia's great historic figures, I have in my later years of life developed a spiritual affinity towards Armenia's Satrap at the time, Vasak Syuni. Vasak Syuni was an astute leader and an Armenian patriot who keenly understood realpolitik. Although in hindsight what the Mamikonian family did ultimately proved beneficial for Armenia, back in 451 AD they were no better than our ignorant and treasonous Western-funded political opposition today.
Sometimes I feel like we are stuck in a time warp. Are we reincarnations of various people from the past, condemned to repeat history? If things are indeed preordained, and we are not collectively working on tweaking this time warp, Armenia's long-term future does not look very promising. Back 301 AD, we as a nation adopted the Trinity. That bad move at the time eventually (after centuries of destruction and unrest) worked out well. Today we are adopting Globalism/Westernization. In other words, we are replacing our worship of the Father-Son-Holy Spirit with the worship of Anglo-American-Jews. Christianity at least gave us a national identity, morality, philosophy, architecture, alphabet, saints, intellectuals... Globalism/Westernization will give us hedonism, materialism, internationalism, multiculturalism and moral relativism.
We are already in the process of going through our second 301 AD. Our "illuminators" today are our Westernizers. I have little doubt we will eventually need another 428 AD. In fact, I really hope to it in my lifetime. But this time, I hope to see the Persians and their Armenian allies massacre the entire Mamikonian clan before 451 AD. Ultimately, I want to avenge the desecration of Vasak Syuni's memory by seeing the defeat of the modern world's Rome and its Christianity.
So, every time you look at Garni temple, after you are done admiring its beauty, I suggest you take a moment and think about King Trdat I and his failed complimentary politics which eventually led to Armenia's devastation and eventual lose of statehood. Every time you look at an early Armenian church, after you are done admiring its beauty, take a moment think about Armenians eagerly adopting foreign vales and enthusiastically destroying their own.
That Christianity eventually proved beneficial to Armenia is altogether another topic of conversation. Back in 301 AD, adopting Christianity and breaking with Persia was a major historic mistake and a disastrous geopolitical blunder.
Not one of our Christian proselytizers and royals in 301 AD could have predicted that Persia would succumb to Islam in 650 AD. Not one of our Christian crusaders in 451 AD could dream of the disappearance of the Persian Empire. Not a single Armenian at the time could imagine the rise of Islam, or Turkic hordes swarming over the entire region. Armenians at time were basically rebelling against a civilization that defined them for nearly one thousand years, and Armenia payed a massive price for it. Like I said, that Christianity eventually worked in our favor (by insulating and defining us in an increasingly Turkic-Islamic region) is altogether another matter. When it comes to political policy, you don't simply do things that makes you feel good and then just hope for the best. Political policy has to be rooted in sound geostrategic calculus and nothing else. The decision by our rulers to break relations with Persia was a major mistake that proved disastrous.
Through good times and bad times, Armenia has been part of the Russian world for the past two hundred years. Armenians share a common history with the Russian people. It would be in Armenia's long term benefit today if it placed all its limited resources and collective emphasis on fostering better relations with a political entity that is close, friendly and familiar, and one that we know will remain in our region for the long-term. Armenia's place is within the Russian orbit. But from the looks of it, we Armenians, like the troubled children that we have always been, are stubbornly refusing to learn lessons from our history.
Our ancestors who were placing hope in Rome two thousand years ago were foolish. Our ancestors who were placing hope on Crusader powers one thousand years ago were foolish. Our ancestors who were placing hope on Western powers one hundred years ago were foolish. Those of us today who are continuing placing hope on Western powers are f@%#ing stupid.
We must
recognize that Western powers are in
Armenia's geographic region merely due to geopolitical calculations and not out of necessity. The Caucasus, north and south, is not and will never be a Western sphere of influence. Western powers are in our region therefore temporarily. In
fact, Western powers have less interests in our region today than Rome did two thousand years ago. Rome eventually pulled back. Persia never did. When Uncle Sam's presence in our region proves too burdensome, he will
simply abandon the region and go back home. For
Russia, however, the region in question is essentially an extension of
its
vulnerable southern borders. Unless Russia is utterly destroyed, Russia will not be leaving
the Caucasus region anytime in the foreseeable future. Moreover, Armenia today is as important to Russia
as it was to Persia two thousand years ago. In fact, Russians today, much like ancient Persians, look at Armenia as part of their
civilization and a nation they helped create.
Growing
up, I
was always interested in international relations and history. I always
did my best to read through the fog of history by reading between-the-lines. I entertained
a nationalistic outlook for a long time. However, age, along which comes wisdom I guess, helped me better understand Armenian history and better understand why we
have been in such a mess for nearly two thousand years. The more I
studied politics and Armenian history, the more I found myself angrily
cursing at my
ancestors for not having the political fortitude and the collective
strength to preserve a powerful Armenian state during the past two
thousand years. For a while I thought we Armenians had learned our
lessons well, and if we only had the opportunity again, Armenia would once
again be from "sea to sea"! Well,
now that I have grown up and seen practically all that needs to be seen, I find
myself angrily cursing Armenians of today. Deep seated emotional issues,
pride, arrogance, negativity, jealousy, cynicism, narcissism, materialism, stubbornness, disunity and political illiteracy may
very well be genetic traits in us.
Due to its very difficult geographic location, Armenia is a nation that demands the most of its sons and daughters. I'm afraid Armenia's sons and daughters are not yet up to the task. We today are repeating the mistakes of our forefathers. As it has been for the past two thousand years, our eyes are fixated on the Western world and we are obsessively longing for Western lifestyle, all to Armenia's detriment.
Similar to how we have been captivated by the Western world today, two thousand years ago Rome came to our doors and dazzled us with their non-traditional life style. Captivated and longing to become like them, we acquiesced to their influence over us. This came at the price of ruining our centuries old relationship with our powerful neighbor to the east. Our fetish with western values essentially turned Armenia onto a battle ground between Persia and Rome. We are seeing the development of a similar process today. Back then, Armenia was devastated and eventually Armenians lost their statehood. Today, we don't know exactly what awaits us. I'm afraid the only thing that will save Armenia from another suicide at this point is Russia's powerful hand in the country. Armenia's survival as a nation-state in a volatile region like the south Caucasus will come only as a result of Armenia's close proximity to Russia and not because of its problematic sons and daughters. I'd like to remind the reader that nations are the way they are because of the character of the people that inhabit them. Armenia is and has been the way it has been because of the collective character of Armenians.
And if or when the proverbial shit hits the fan, I would much rather see Armenia join the Russian Federation similar to how Armenia reentered the Persian Empire back in 428 AD. I rather see an Armenia that is peaceful and prosperous, than an "independent" Armenia that is embattled, backward, impoverished and under the constant threat of annihilation. Actually, every single one of Armenia's golden periods have come at times when Armenia had been part of one empire or another. Sadly, Armenian traits seem to work best for Armenia only when Armenians are living in powerful political systems created by other people. The latest example of what I am talking about was Soviet Armenia. It was during the Soviet period that Armenia become a modern state and its culture flourished and reached heights. I always put it to people this way: Soviet Armenia gave us Aram Khachaturyan, "independent" Armenia gave us Aram Asatryan. Behold our cultural decline, regression and degeneration -
I sometimes wonder if we are stuck in a nasty time warp or a cycle where we as a people are doomed to repeat the same damn mistakes over-and-over again and suffer the same damn consequences over-and-over again. Perhaps not. Hopefully not, for nothing is set in stone. Just like the cycles of life in nature can be altered and/or redirected, cycles of history can therefore be altered and/or redirected as well. In other words: I think we can tweak the cycle somewhat, that is if we collectively recognize it and work on altering it. By that I mean, we as a people may not have it in our DNA or in our natural destiny to be an empire - but we as a people are not doomed to live like gypsies either.
Due to its very difficult geographic location, Armenia is a nation that demands the most of its sons and daughters. I'm afraid Armenia's sons and daughters are not yet up to the task. We today are repeating the mistakes of our forefathers. As it has been for the past two thousand years, our eyes are fixated on the Western world and we are obsessively longing for Western lifestyle, all to Armenia's detriment.
Similar to how we have been captivated by the Western world today, two thousand years ago Rome came to our doors and dazzled us with their non-traditional life style. Captivated and longing to become like them, we acquiesced to their influence over us. This came at the price of ruining our centuries old relationship with our powerful neighbor to the east. Our fetish with western values essentially turned Armenia onto a battle ground between Persia and Rome. We are seeing the development of a similar process today. Back then, Armenia was devastated and eventually Armenians lost their statehood. Today, we don't know exactly what awaits us. I'm afraid the only thing that will save Armenia from another suicide at this point is Russia's powerful hand in the country. Armenia's survival as a nation-state in a volatile region like the south Caucasus will come only as a result of Armenia's close proximity to Russia and not because of its problematic sons and daughters. I'd like to remind the reader that nations are the way they are because of the character of the people that inhabit them. Armenia is and has been the way it has been because of the collective character of Armenians.
And if or when the proverbial shit hits the fan, I would much rather see Armenia join the Russian Federation similar to how Armenia reentered the Persian Empire back in 428 AD. I rather see an Armenia that is peaceful and prosperous, than an "independent" Armenia that is embattled, backward, impoverished and under the constant threat of annihilation. Actually, every single one of Armenia's golden periods have come at times when Armenia had been part of one empire or another. Sadly, Armenian traits seem to work best for Armenia only when Armenians are living in powerful political systems created by other people. The latest example of what I am talking about was Soviet Armenia. It was during the Soviet period that Armenia become a modern state and its culture flourished and reached heights. I always put it to people this way: Soviet Armenia gave us Aram Khachaturyan, "independent" Armenia gave us Aram Asatryan. Behold our cultural decline, regression and degeneration -
Aram Khachaturyan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLENHBw48DA
Aram Asatryan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEjPRKwLvZ0From an esoteric perspective, what is happening in Armenia today is the replaying of the geopolitical tug-of-war that existed between ancient Persia (the spiritual ancestor of modern Russia) and Rome (the spiritual ancestor of the Anglo-American-Jewish world) during the first few centuries of the Christian era. The situation also closely resembles the geopolitical climate that existed in Cilician Armenia nearly one thousand years ago, where Armenian leaders neglected crafting alliances with their powerful neighbors for temporary gains by siding with Crusaders and Mongols against their neighbors. Just like Rome before them, Crusaders and Mongols retreated and Armenia was left alone to deal with its hostile neighbors.
I sometimes wonder if we are stuck in a nasty time warp or a cycle where we as a people are doomed to repeat the same damn mistakes over-and-over again and suffer the same damn consequences over-and-over again. Perhaps not. Hopefully not, for nothing is set in stone. Just like the cycles of life in nature can be altered and/or redirected, cycles of history can therefore be altered and/or redirected as well. In other words: I think we can tweak the cycle somewhat, that is if we collectively recognize it and work on altering it. By that I mean, we as a people may not have it in our DNA or in our natural destiny to be an empire - but we as a people are not doomed to live like gypsies either.
In closing, I'd like to point out that we are most probably in the preliminary stages of a world war. The
unipolar political order of the post-Soviet era is gradually coming to
an end and a new multipolar one is in the process of being born. This is why we have unrest around the world. They
are trying to encircle Russia. They are trying to contain China. They are giving Europe a drastic makeover. They are in the process of redesigning
the Middle East. The tools of their agenda are as always Turks and Islamists.
Thus far, the major powers involved in this equation are
clashing only through proxies. They may be trying to get Russians to fight Turks and Iranians to fight Saudi Arabians. Our tiny, impoverished, remote,
landlocked and blockaded homeland is on the frontlines of this historic
mess that is in fact a mess, made in America. The dispute we Armenians have over Artsakh pales in comparison
to what may yet come to the already troubled region. We therefore better be ready. We better begin to better understand the world we live in. We better fix our twisted perception of politics. And we better realize that decisions we make
today will be felt by Armenia for many decades to come. Bad decisions
may result in the destruction of Armenia once again. Unfortunately, the signs are not all that encouraging. Official
Yerevan has turned Armenia into a rudderless boat, and the already
turbulent sea that this boat is floating upon is due to experience a major storm.
Armenia simply won't survive the coming storm without the Russian Bear at its side. That's a fact. I can therefore only pray for the best. I can only hope that the pieces will eventually fall in the right place for a change. In reality, however, as it has been for the past two thousand years, I can not hope for much more than Armenia's mere survival or as the Armenian saying goes, յոլա գնալ.
Armenia simply won't survive the coming storm without the Russian Bear at its side. That's a fact. I can therefore only pray for the best. I can only hope that the pieces will eventually fall in the right place for a change. In reality, however, as it has been for the past two thousand years, I can not hope for much more than Armenia's mere survival or as the Armenian saying goes, յոլա գնալ.
For the first time in over twenty years, since the Russian-brokered 1994 peace agreement to be exact, we
had serious losses in men, material and land. The worrying part was that the Azeri military had not even used full force. To cover up their
corruption and incompetence or perhaps their treachery, Yerevan put out disinformation aimed against Russia. Armenian
officials blamed recently sold Russian weapons systems for Azerbaijan's
blitzkrieg and Armenia's Western agents wasted no time in accusing
Russians for starting the war. The result: The Armenian sheeple are
being mislead and Armenia stands vulnerable in a very dangerous location. Armenia is
being run by incompetent chobans and Western agents. Armenia today is
hanging by a thread called Russia. Had it not been for Russian boots on
the ground in Armenia, Armenians would most probably have already suffered the
first genocide of the twenty-first century. Despite it all, some
Armenians are continuing to ask if Russia is a friend or foe,
without realizing that if Russia was indeed a foe, Armenia would not
exist today. A better question, therefore, would be to ask if those who question
Russian-Armenian relations are in fact Armenia's friends or foes?
Thank you for reading what I had to say. I don't expect the reader to agree with everything I have written because I understand that I may have challenged some dearly held notions and I may have also said a few things that the reader most probably never even thought about before. That said, I do expect the reader to think and reflect on matters that I have raised. I also expect the reader to reach deep inside and search. Now, without any further ado, I present to you comrade Zoravar's expert look at the continuing modernization of Russia's armed forces. Please note that immediately below, I have posted links to all of Zoravar's previous articles that appeared in this blog. I kindly invite you all to read them as well.
Arevordi
Summer, 2016
***
The Rise of Russia on the Warm Seas: A brief look at Russia's military in Syria (November, 2015): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2015/11/the-rise-of-russia-on-warm-seas-brief.htm
The Battle for Novorossiya (May, 2015): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-battle-for-novorossiya-may-2015.html
The East-West Balance and the Strategic Importance of Crimea (April, 2014): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-military-balance-between-russia-and.html
Syrian Conflict: A Brief Military Analysis (June 2013): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2013/06/syrian-conflict-brief-military-analysis.html
A Call to Arms (November, 2011): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2011/11/call-to-arms-november-2011.html
Russia Military Update (December, 2010): http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/12/military.html
***
The Rise of the Russian Army – Preparing for Future Wars
The Past
In the 19th century, one of the most respected rulers of the Russian Empire, Czar Alexander 3rd, said: “Russia has only two allies: the Army and the Navy”. Ironically, this Czar from the Romanov dynasty that lasted 300 years was nicknamed Miratvorets (Peacemaker) because he was the only Russian emperor who did not engage his country’s armed forces in a major conflict. Czar Alexander III and his predecessors had witnessed the harsh, difficult and often violent history of their immense country from the day it was created as “Kievian Rus” by south migrating Vikings in the geographic location that is currently known as the capital of present day Ukraine. During the centuries of its existence, Russia had been in bitter wars against the other world powers. From Baltic campaigns to Crimean campaigns and from the Battle of Poltava to the Battle of Borodino, Russian armies permanently sealed the fates of the Tatar-Mongolian empire, the Swedish empire, the Polish empire, the Prussian empire, Napoleon’s empire and others. During the centuries, Russians nurtured their military heritage and developed a fighting culture. These warrior’s traits become embedded in Russian DNA: Courage, tenacity, perseverance, toughness, resilience, victory-seeking spirit, readiness to die etc.
These warrior spirit & genes did not go way when the Russian empire tragically came to end with the advent of Soviet Communism. Unlike, the Russian empire, the Soviet Union was more interested in pushing forward the communist ideology rather than the best interests of Russia as a country or the Russian culture. Nevertheless, the USSR put an end to one more empire: Hitler’s Nazi 3rd Reich. In time, the Soviet Union was dismembered. Russia found itself weakened to the point where it had to fight within its own territories (Chechnya) to preserve its integrity. But all that is history. Russia is now back on its feet, has a powerful army and is increasingly asserting itself on the international arena. Since the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Kremlin’s armed forces intervened 3 times outside Russia’s borders in order to protect its allies and hence, its own best interests:
In the 19th century, one of the most respected rulers of the Russian Empire, Czar Alexander 3rd, said: “Russia has only two allies: the Army and the Navy”. Ironically, this Czar from the Romanov dynasty that lasted 300 years was nicknamed Miratvorets (Peacemaker) because he was the only Russian emperor who did not engage his country’s armed forces in a major conflict. Czar Alexander III and his predecessors had witnessed the harsh, difficult and often violent history of their immense country from the day it was created as “Kievian Rus” by south migrating Vikings in the geographic location that is currently known as the capital of present day Ukraine. During the centuries of its existence, Russia had been in bitter wars against the other world powers. From Baltic campaigns to Crimean campaigns and from the Battle of Poltava to the Battle of Borodino, Russian armies permanently sealed the fates of the Tatar-Mongolian empire, the Swedish empire, the Polish empire, the Prussian empire, Napoleon’s empire and others. During the centuries, Russians nurtured their military heritage and developed a fighting culture. These warrior’s traits become embedded in Russian DNA: Courage, tenacity, perseverance, toughness, resilience, victory-seeking spirit, readiness to die etc.
Picture Czar Alexander III
These warrior spirit & genes did not go way when the Russian empire tragically came to end with the advent of Soviet Communism. Unlike, the Russian empire, the Soviet Union was more interested in pushing forward the communist ideology rather than the best interests of Russia as a country or the Russian culture. Nevertheless, the USSR put an end to one more empire: Hitler’s Nazi 3rd Reich. In time, the Soviet Union was dismembered. Russia found itself weakened to the point where it had to fight within its own territories (Chechnya) to preserve its integrity. But all that is history. Russia is now back on its feet, has a powerful army and is increasingly asserting itself on the international arena. Since the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Kremlin’s armed forces intervened 3 times outside Russia’s borders in order to protect its allies and hence, its own best interests:
- The Bear roared and mauled the first time in 2008 when Georgian President Saakashvili’s army attacked South Ossetia.
- The Bear struck again in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine. Nicknamed “Northern Wind”, phantom forces swept stealthily on the plains of the Donbass region leaving in their wake a burned out and mutilated Ukrainian army.
- More recently, in September 2015, the Bear came by air to the rescue of Syria’s legitimate government and rained down havoc on the advancing Islamo-fascist terrorist hordes.
In
all the above cases, Russian troops intervened only after the situation
was getting critical for their allies: Georgians were entering
Tskhinvali (the capital of South Ossetia), Donetsk and Lugansk were
getting surrounded by the West-backed Ukrainian army and Assad’s Syrian
army was on the verge of collapse. Just
like during Czarist times, modern Russia has a shortage of allies that
are themselves of limited help to Russia in difficult times. But, in all
the above three cases, Russia did step in to save and protect them.
Speaking of allies; they happen to be of two types:
- The incidental type: These are the ones that come and go depending on the situation. Usually, the 2 parties of this type go into an alliance when there is a present or potential threat from a powerful third party. When that threat ceases to exist, the alliance becomes redundant and disappears. For example, the USSR and the USA were allied against Germany and Japan during WWII. But as soon as the latter were defeated, the former allies became mortal enemies and engaged each other in a cold war.
- The permanent type: These are the alliances forged between two nations whose long-term interests converge and who depend on each other in a variety of manners.
I mentioned above the 3 cases when Russian forces intervened to save
their allies from disaster. In all these cases, the Kremlin considered
the long-term value of these allies and the intervention decisions were
based on that. On the other hand, Russia did not support or save Libya’s
Colonel Kaddafi because he was flip-flopping between East and West.
Kaddafi hardly qualified as a temporary friend, let alone an incidental
ally. Where does that leave Armenia and Artsakh in light of the recent
bloody flare up that we witnessed in the early days of April 2016? Let
me make this clear: The Nagorno-Karabakh war is not Russia’s war. It is
our war and it is us Armenians who are the ones who will have to do the
fighting to defend our rights and the well-being of our land and
population. As a long-term permanent ally, Russia was, is and will be
making sure that we have the necessary means to defend ourselves. Where
do you think the SCUD and TOCHKA ballistic missiles in our inventory
came from? Who gave us the S-300 and related air defense systems? Do you
think our miniscule defense budget paid one Cent or Kopek for the
weapons and the training we received (and keep receiving) from Russia?
S-300 in Yerevan
The bulk of the weapons we get from Russia come absolutely free. The rest is at heavily discounted domestic prices with excellent finance terms. As an ally, Russia will also make sure that Armenia and Artsakh are immune from Turkish threats. Turkey will not be allowed to interfere in case of an Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Sadly, there are some die-hard Russophobic Armenian elements among us who want to think that Russia may abandon or even sell us to Turkey/Azerbaijan. Those short-sighted idiots need only to go back to the time of the first Karabakh war when the Bear’s military spokesman openly threatened Turkey against any sort on intervention in the conflict…and that was when Russia was at its weakest point in recent history.
The above mentioned Russophobic morons are unable to see in front of their own eyes: During the April 2016 Nagorno Karabakh conflict flare-up, the sadistic, militarist and adventurous Erdogan promised full support to Azerbaijan but refrained from uttering the remotest word about intervening on behalf of Azerbaijan. What will happen if – God forbid – we start losing in an all-out war against Azerbaijan? Lately, some Armenians are expressing concern and are unsure of Russia intervening in our favor. Again, the answer is very simple: Russia will repeat doing the same thing it did in Georgia, Donbass and Syria. When the Kremlin sees that its ally is in deep trouble…that is when “polite people” will show up. That is why the Armenian leadership should be 100% committed to maintaining and re-enforcing our age old alliance with Moscow. Trying to be too clever by flip-flopping between Russia and the political West and engaging in “complimentary politics” is not a good option for our leadership… unless they want to end up like Kaddafi.
“Polite People”
Let me repeat what I said earlier in this article. Having Russia as a permanent ally covering our back is essential for us Armenians, but it is us who will have to fight and defend our lands, people and interests. Having said that, we should never allow a war-losing situation to develop on the battlefield. It is up to us Armenians to make sure that we have the upper hand in any possible future confrontation with Azerbaijan. Now, let’s go back to topic and examine in detail the Bear’s might.
The Future
Reflecting
back on human history, it is a foregone conclusion that there will be
wars in the future. Given the world geopolitics and the vastness of
Russia, one can say that Russia’s Army will be involved and will be
drawing blood in some potential or evolving conflicts. It may be that we
are currently in the preliminary stages of a World War III. In front of
our own eyes, the political map of post-Soviet Eastern Europe is being
altered, the demographic map of Western Europe is being changed and the
Middle East is in the process of being redesigned. The major powers (US,
EU and Russia) as well as some regional powers (Iran, Turkey, Israel
and Saudi Arabia) are clashing more often – sometimes directly and
sometimes through proxies. The rest of this article is to examine what
the Russian military planners and weapon designers are doing to prepare
for the future wars that seem to be inevitable. Nuclear forces will
still be the biggest deterrent to an all-out global conflict like in WWI
and II. But, there will be a constant race between next generation
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) and their counter: the Anti
-Ballistic Missile systems (ABM). Things will get complicated with the
emergence of hypersonic cruise missiles, stealth technology, unmanned
systems, powerful electronics etc. etc. Here is an analysis of what the
Russians are preparing:
The Ballistics
The Ballistics
The
pinnacle of a superpower’s arsenal is its Intercontinental Ballistic
Missiles with nuclear warheads. These are either launched from land
(ICBM) or from submarines (SLBM). In this crucial strategic field, the Russians have taken the lead over the West.
The US economy may be the largest in the world and its $600 billion
annual military budget dwarfs anybody else’s, yet it has allowed itself
to fall behind Russia in this key category of weaponry. The US
Republican Party’s now sole contender for the US Presidency (Donald
Trump) himself admitted during his recent foreign policy speech in late
April that the American strategic arsenal is getting hopelessly
obsolete. Despite the collapse of the USSR and the consequent economic
hardship, Russia kept on modernizing its inventory constantly. For
example, the land mobile TOPOL has been replaced with TOPOL-M which in
its turn is now being replaced by the RS-24 YARS which will be followed
by the RS-26 RUBEZH. A new heavy-weight ICBM called RS-28 SARMAT is
currently being developed, there are plans for a train based BARGUZIN
and the submarine launched BULAVA has recently been indicted into
service.
BOREI Class Submarine
On the other side of the fence, the most modern American ICBM is the MINUTEMAN-3 which entered service in 1970 while its most modern SLBM is the TRIDENT-2 that was fielded in 1990…and till now, the US have nothing that is in the pipeline to replace their aging and increasingly obsolete inventory. While Russia is actively building its new generation BOREI class nuclear submarines that are equipped with the BULAVA missile, the USA is still relying on the Cold War era OHIO class submarines. Their newer subs will be ready only sometime during the next decade! Watching recent major American arms procurement scandals (F-35 fighter etc.) I can imagine the delays and massive cost overruns that the program will go through. What is the meaning of all this? In the most simplistic terms: The older missiles are increasingly getting more vulnerable to a variety of Anti-Ballistic missile (ABM) systems that are expected to enter service in coming years (more about that later). Conclusion: Russia will not only maintain its strategic nuclear deterrent in the future, it will also have a more credible one. No country in the world will dare attack Russia directly. The West will fight Russia by the form of proxies, sanctions, color revolutions etc.
The Sonics
Because the Anti-Missile systems (ABM) may be gradually eroding away the nuclear deterrence potential of the ICBMs and SLBMs, both the USA and Russia have embarked into developing and fielding alternative or complimentary nuclear strike weapon systems; Cruise missiles were the obvious choice. Since 1991, both countries have successfully utilized cruise missiles (with conventional warhead) against targets in the Afghanistan, Iraq, Serbia, Libya and Syria.
KALIBR Cruise MissileThese cruise missiles are launched from bombers, ships or submarines and can have either a conventional or a nuclear warhead. They are smaller and relatively inexpensive compared to ballistic missiles. They are also hard to detect because they adopt a low altitude flight profile in the final phase of their flight. Their main drawback is their subsonic speed which means it takes a long time to reach their intended target. For example, the Russian KALIBR (that became famous thanks to its dramatic success in Syria) will need about two and a half hours to reach its maximum range of 2000km, giving the intended target sufficient time to move away from harm’s way (even from a nuclear warhead). Furthermore, these slow flying subsonic cruise missiles are vulnerable to shoot down from a good air defense system. Decades ago, the Soviets designed the duo of MiG-31 long-range interceptors and S-300 Surface to Air Missile system (SAM) to defeat the cruise missile threat during the eighties. The West lagged behind in SAMs and the gap is still widening. The Russians went a step further with their long range cruise missiles. They created the 5000 km range Kh-101 (conventional warhead) and Kh-102 (nuclear warhead) air launched cruise missiles that have stealth designs. They complicate further the task of the US and NATO air defense networks which are not as elaborate as the much better Russian SAM umbrella. Note that current ABM systems are useless against low flying cruise missiles.
Tu-95 BEAR Bomber with KH-101 Stealth Cruise Missiles
The West does have stealthy cruise missiles as well, but they are all short ranged. During the cold war, the Soviet Union deployed mainly nuclear tipped cruise missiles as a complement to its Ballistic missiles and somewhat neglected to field conventional ones. The USA did pretty much the opposite. Later on, the Pentagon used these missiles to deliver “shock and awe” strikes against smaller countries on multiple occasions. Russia fired its cruise missiles in anger for the first time last year during its military intervention in Syria: Scores of KALIBR, Kh-555 and Kh-101 cruise missiles fired from ships, submarines and bomber aircraft flew long distances to “terrorize the terrorists”. Cruise missiles (both nuclear and conventional) are now a mainstay in the Bear’s arsenal. At this time, virtually every Russian warship or submarine being built is designed to carry them. Even the relatively small (800 ton displacement) KARAKURT class missile boats will carry 8 KALIBRs each. I will discuss about the air launched cruise missiles in another section of this article, in the meanwhile here is a picture showing the coverage of a Kh-101/102 missile when launched from a Russian bomber from within the Far-Eastern part of the Russian airspace.
The cruise missile strike in Syria should be seen as a demonstration of what the Bear can do in case of a major confrontation: It will be volleys of cruise missiles of all sorts coming in consecutive waves to strike anything from ports to airports and from barracks to bridges. The West’s air defense systems are not elaborate enough to deal with such an onslaught. As I mentioned earlier, back in the time, the Soviet Union created the S-300 and MiG-31 specifically for this kind of scenario.
Ballistic and Winged Versions of ISKANDER
I must add that the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty bans the deployment of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. That is why the range of both types of missiles of the ISKANDER system is limited to 500 km. Still, both ballistic and winged versions of the ISKANDER will contribute to the carnage that will fall upon anything that happens to be within range.
The Hypersonics
We are about to enter the era of hypersonic missiles. These are high speed cruise missiles that can travel 6 or 7 times faster than the speed of sound. They will reach their intended targets in a relatively short period of time and are very difficult to shoot down. Theses missiles are even faster than most SAM missiles in service today.
Hypersonic Cruise Missile
Both the USA and Russia are currently conducting tests with test-bed prototypes of hypersonic missiles. Recently, the Russians have announced that they started testing an actual anti-ship hypersonic missile called ZIRCON that will equip the cruiser Peter the Great and its sister ship the Admiral Nakhimov (which is currently in modernization) as well the future 5th generation submarines that will enter service during the next decade. It seems that the Russians are taking the lead in these hypersonic weapons.
Cruiser Admiral Nakhimov under Modernization at the ShipyardSince hypersonic cruise missiles do not use a ballistic path, they are mostly immune from current ABM systems. Of course, there is no such thing as an invincible weapon. Just like ABM systems are mitigating the danger posed by ballistic missiles, future SAM and ABM systems will be able to at least partly neutralize this new type of threat. Thus, hypersonic cruise missiles will complement rather than replace the ballistic missiles in the strategic arsenals of the two superpowers.
The AeroCosmos
The
Russian Aerospace Forces or Vozdushno Kosmicheskiye Sil (VKS) was
established as a new armed force on the 1 August 2015 with the merging
of the Russian Air Force (VVS) and the Space Defense Forces (VKO) under
the recommendations of the Ministry of Defense. Several reasons were
announced for the merger, including greater efficiency and logistical
support. The
Russians now look at air and space as one environment that must be
defended by one entity: the VKS. This new entity will have to defeat
ballistic missiles, subsonic cruise missiles, hypersonic cruise
missiles, manned aircraft, unmanned aircraft, orbiting satellites and
anything else that flies within the atmosphere or beyond.
The
main assets of the VKS currently consist of aircraft of various types
and a comprehensive network of Surface to Air Missile (SAM) systems
coupled to a maze of search radars and other electronic surveillance
systems. Let’s first talk about bombers: Bomber aircraft are far more
versatile than strategic missiles. They can be used for both strategic
(nuclear) strikes as well as tactical (conventional) missions. Bombers
can use anything from dumb free-fall bombs to hypersonic cruise
missiles. They can be used against land targets, sea targets, for
reconnaissance as well as electronics suppression.
The
VKS currently have in service more than a hundred bombers that are
distributed between 8 squadrons (4 x Tu-22M3 Backfire, 3 x Tu-95MS Bear
and 1 x Tu-160 Blackjack). The Bears and Blackjack currently carry
Kh-555 cruise missiles (3000 km range). They are all being modernized to
carry the stealthy Kh-101 and 102 series of cruise missiles that have a
5000 km range. The Backfires carry the supersonic Kh-22 anti-ship
missiles that have a speed of 4 times the speed of sound and a range of
600 km; their main task is to strike the American aircraft carrier task
forces. Against land targets, the Backfires will use free fall bombs of
various sizes (both conventional and nuclear).
All of the above aircraft are now aging and require modernizations and upgrades to keep them effective. To replace them, the Russians are using a 2-tier approach. First, they are organizing a production restart of a modernized version of the Tu-160. The factory will first complete building 3 airframes that were left over unfinished from Soviet times and then build a minimum of 50 brand new Tu-160M2 aircraft to replace or complement the existing bombers. Next, around the year 2025, a completely new bomber that is dubbed PAK-DA will appear and will eventually become the backbone of the bomber force. Not much detail is available on this future stealth bomber. Here is a discreet report showing the Tupolev factory in Kazan where all the new bombers will be produced.
To support the bomber fleet (as well as fighter aircraft), the large Aviastar factory in Ulyanovsk is now producing the in-flight refueling tanker version of a well-known Ilyushin transport plane whose manufacture was moved away from Tashkent (Uzbekistan) to Russia a few years ago. The VKS placed a large order for both the cargo (Il-76) and tanker (Il-78) versions of the plane as well as a new Airborne Early Warning (AWACS) derivative.
The current USA bomber fleet consisting of B-1, B-2 and B-52 planes is a bit larger than Russia’s but with an average aircraft age that is even older. They are planning a new bomber (B-21) which will appear at about the same time as the PAK-DA. Noteworthy is the fact that the entire strategic triad of the USA needs to be replaced at once during the next decades; let’s see where Uncle Sam is going to find the budget for it. In the meanwhile, as I have mentioned above, Uncle Ivan is well underway in modernizing the ICBMs and SLBMs including the submarines that are going to carry them.
The ongoing VKS campaign in Syria made a star of the various Sukhoi aircraft including the latest Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35. During the hard economic times that Russia went through, the Sukhoi Company managed to clinch a number of large and valuable export orders for its aircraft. That kept the factories busy and the company profitable. Funds were available to come up with new aircraft iterations and even develop the future Russian 5th generation stealth fighter the Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA which is expected to enter squadron service in the next couple of years. While the various Su-27, 30 and 35 models are a good match to any of the Western fighters (F-15, F-16, F-18, Rafale and Typhoon), the PAK-FA will take on the stealthy F-22 and F-35.
Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack Bomber
All of the above aircraft are now aging and require modernizations and upgrades to keep them effective. To replace them, the Russians are using a 2-tier approach. First, they are organizing a production restart of a modernized version of the Tu-160. The factory will first complete building 3 airframes that were left over unfinished from Soviet times and then build a minimum of 50 brand new Tu-160M2 aircraft to replace or complement the existing bombers. Next, around the year 2025, a completely new bomber that is dubbed PAK-DA will appear and will eventually become the backbone of the bomber force. Not much detail is available on this future stealth bomber. Here is a discreet report showing the Tupolev factory in Kazan where all the new bombers will be produced.
The 3 unfinished Tu-160 Blackjack bombers are seen there: http://dimmi-tomsk.livejournal.com/307304.html
To support the bomber fleet (as well as fighter aircraft), the large Aviastar factory in Ulyanovsk is now producing the in-flight refueling tanker version of a well-known Ilyushin transport plane whose manufacture was moved away from Tashkent (Uzbekistan) to Russia a few years ago. The VKS placed a large order for both the cargo (Il-76) and tanker (Il-78) versions of the plane as well as a new Airborne Early Warning (AWACS) derivative.
The current USA bomber fleet consisting of B-1, B-2 and B-52 planes is a bit larger than Russia’s but with an average aircraft age that is even older. They are planning a new bomber (B-21) which will appear at about the same time as the PAK-DA. Noteworthy is the fact that the entire strategic triad of the USA needs to be replaced at once during the next decades; let’s see where Uncle Sam is going to find the budget for it. In the meanwhile, as I have mentioned above, Uncle Ivan is well underway in modernizing the ICBMs and SLBMs including the submarines that are going to carry them.
The ongoing VKS campaign in Syria made a star of the various Sukhoi aircraft including the latest Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35. During the hard economic times that Russia went through, the Sukhoi Company managed to clinch a number of large and valuable export orders for its aircraft. That kept the factories busy and the company profitable. Funds were available to come up with new aircraft iterations and even develop the future Russian 5th generation stealth fighter the Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA which is expected to enter squadron service in the next couple of years. While the various Su-27, 30 and 35 models are a good match to any of the Western fighters (F-15, F-16, F-18, Rafale and Typhoon), the PAK-FA will take on the stealthy F-22 and F-35.
Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA
In comparison, MiG fell into the shadows for a while only to re-emerge recently by supplying naval versions of the MiG-29 to the Russian and Indian Navies. The Mikoyan design bureau now has orders for the follow on MiG-35 which is a much modernized and improved MiG-29. The MiG-31 interceptor remains the largest fighter aircraft in the world. With powerful radar, long range missiles and the ability to fly at very high speeds for extended periods of time, this aircraft is ideal to cover and protect large expanses of territory from intruding aircraft and cruise missiles. Most of the fleet recently got modernized to MiG-31 BM standards with even better weapons, electronics and communication means. There are reports that Mikoyan is planning a 5th generation replacement for this aircraft which is tentatively named MiG-41. Such an aircraft must be capable of dealing with all kinds of airborne threats including ballistic and hypersonic ones. Mikoyan is also said to be planning a small stealthy fighter that would replace the existing MiG-29s in the future.
Here is a photo-report at the factory where the MiG-31 interceptors are being completely overhauled and modernized: http://fotografersha.livejournal.com/787576.html
Now, let’s talk about SAMs and ABMs: Although the USA makes a big fuss about their anti-missile system, no one mentions that the Soviets based a working ABM (A-35) system around Moscow decades ago. That system was compliant with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty which allowed the deployment of an ABM system in only two locations. In 2002, the USA unilaterally withdrew from the treaty and started deploying ABM systems in Europe and Alaska with the pretext of countering alleged Iranian and North-Korean ICBM threats. The real reason was to shoot down Russian ICBMs and make an atomic war winnable for the USA…or, maybe not entirely so (more about that later). In 1995, the elderly A-35 system around Moscow was replaced with a more modern A-135. Recently, new reports started coming in that the Russians are developing a new ABM system that is road mobile. The 2015 yearly calendar of the famous Russian SAM manufacturer (Almaz-Antey) included a picture of an unknown ABM system. The picture was most likely leaked intentionally.
The A-235 Nudol ABM System
The name of the system is speculated to be A-235 NUDOL or SAMOLET-M. It is said that it is intended to shoot down all kinds of strategic ballistic Missiles as well as satellites and spacecraft at altitudes up to 200 km. The smaller S-500 Prometheus (also called Triumphator) is a next generation long-range (up to 600 km) fully mobile SAM system that is expected to enter service next year. It is designed for intercepting and destroying intercontinental ballistic missiles as well as hypersonic cruise missiles and all types of manned and unmanned aircraft. It is truly an Air and Cosmos weapon that will complement and perhaps replace the formidable S-400 that can deal with Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (the likes of SCUD and PERSHING) but not the Intercontinental ones.
S-350 Vityaz
At the lower end of the SAM range, the new compact S-350 Vityaz system (120 km range) will soon replace the bulkier S-300 while the new BUK-M3 (70 km range) will take the place of the 40 km range M1 and M2 variants. A new PANTSIR-SM missile is also scheduled to arrive soon. The new missile has a 35 km range versus 20 km for the older PANTSIR-S.
Here is
media presentation of the soon-to- come PANTSIR-SM:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8W1Ihb3HzXE
BUK-M3
No article about Russian Aerospace Defense Forces would be complete without mention of Radars and other electronic warfare systems. These kinds of systems usually fall in the “classified” category and little detail is available. Recently names of some Russian electronic warfare systems become famous; these include AVTOBAZA, KRASUHA and NEBO. The latter is a class of radars that are capable of detecting and tracking stealth aircraft.
Here is a short video showing the deployment of the
NEBO-M: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn4WmCFBcnk
Family of NEBO Radar Systems
The Robots
Decades ago Soviet high ranking military staff developed the concept of Bizkontaktnaya Voyna (Contactless war), a war in which the Soviet side would carry military operations without putting their soldiers in harm’s way. The concept envisaged the use of stand-off weapons, unmanned systems and robots. Ironically, with the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, it was exactly that kind of warfare that the USA and NATO waged against the former allies and friends of the USSR and other countries including Iraq, Serbia, Afghanistan and Libya. With minimal loss of life on their side, the West’s armed forces hammered these countries to destruction or submission. Lower intensity versions of the contactless war (sometimes referred to as Drone Wars) are still being conducted against Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia and other countries.
The modern Russia that emerged kept pace with the West in stand-off weapons such as cruise missiles, Precision Guided Weapons (PGM) and the like. However, unmanned systems and robots were generally neglected until the 2008 Georgia war during which the lack of modern UAVs (Drones) became obvious for the Defense Ministry which embarked on a program to develop and field various types of unmanned systems to be operated in the air, on land and on water. In 2014 (Ukraine) and 2015 (Syria) the Russians employed various forms of Contactless war with great success and minimal losses on their side.
As far as UAVs (flying Drones) are concerned, in a short few years Russia caught up with the West in the segment of small UAVs, but still is behind in medium and large ones as well as in the segment of armed drones (UCAVs). Everybody knows that they are working on such systems but they are keeping their programs under a strict veil of secrecy. Fr om time to time, they reveal glimpses of some projects they are working on; like this video that is showing a scaled-down mock-up of the FRIGATE project:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CONfz-cHdj8
What is increasingly clear is that the Russians are now in the process of fielding a whole range of land fighting robots. Mine clearing robots are already hard at work in demining the recently liberated ancient city of Palmyra in Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry recently unveiled the UDAR, a crew-less version of the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle or maybe I should say: Infantry-less fighting vehicle! They have even disclosed that a T-14 ARMATA tank can be controlled by another one and that they can even carry their own UAV! Yes, it definitely looks like Russia is leapfrogging the West in the ground dwelling unmanned systems. I am most impressed with their unmanned URAN-9 combat robot armed which is equipped with a plethora of different weapons ranging from an automatic 30 mm cannon to antitank missiles and even Man Portable SAMs (MANPADS). I will let the dear reader be the own judge of the greatness of the URAN-9 by watching these 2 videos:
Combat robotic system Uran-9: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBC9BM4-3Ek
Боевые роботы: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUsih_E4B50
Uran-9 Combat Robot
The Big Guns
We all saw the future of the Russian ground forces during last year’s military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the victory during the Great Patriotic War. The T-14 ARMATA tank, its T-15 Infantry fighting vehicle counterpart, the KURGANETS and BOOMERANG armored personnel carriers as well as the KOALITSYA self-propelled artillery. Bit by bit more details on these futuristic vehicles are emerging thanks to TV programs that are carefully screened and censored by the Russian Defense Ministry. These above mentioned new monsters are straight from Sci-Fi movies with crews having multiple video screens and other gadgets. Here are the videos:
KURGANETS APC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gONMICv9dM
What we see on Red Square and in the above videos are just pre-production prototypes, the final vehicles might be somewhat different. We know that the T-14 ARMATA has an unmanned turret and a crew of 3. In the future it will be crewed by only 2 people and have a 152 mm main gun as well as an UAV. It will also be able to remotely control another ARMATA tank with no crew in it! Yes, a robot ARMATA. The KOALITSYA 152mm self-propelled gun has the fastest firing rate in its class (rumored to be 10 -12 rounds per minute), it also has the longest range (70 km) and is operated by the smallest crew (3 people). Recently, we learned that it also carries radars (seen in the video above) that track the path of the shells and make the necessary corrections to allow the next shell to be extremely accurate.KOALITSYA Self-propelled Gun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFulTgkpj6o
In addition, we know that in these videos, the Russians are not telling us everything and that they are showing us only the features that they want us to know about. The rest is shrouded in secrecy. These new weapons make everything else look like they are hopelessly obsolete. One thing is clear: The Russian army is about to field the best in the world tanks, armored vehicles and artillery that are a class above anything that the USA and NATO have or planning to have in the coming years. The West is lagging behind and will have to invest huge sums to catch up…
A few years ago, the Kremlin announced that 70% of the equipment of the Russian Armed Forces will be of the modern category by 2020. Apart from the above described “Big Guns”, there will be new models of KAMAZ and URAL trucks, new MLRS replacing the older GRAD, URAGAN and SMERCH. The list of new equipment being or to be adopted is very long.
The RATNIK Toys
The current re-equipping and modernization of the ground forces goes all the way to the socks and underwear of the individual soldier. The ground forces are now re-equipping with the new soldier’s equipment called RATNIK which includes everything from bulletproof vests to helmets, communication gear to boots and much more.
Some elements of RATNIK
We saw elements of the RATNIK gear on the “polite people” who showed up in Crimea during the 2014 turmoil. More bits and pieces are now being seen on the Russian special units operating in Syria. The RATNIK gear makes the soldier a truly 21st century combatant. The pictures don’t make justice to the equipment: there is so much more to it. Just to give you examples: The fatigues are made of a fabric that does not burn! The combat helmets are extremely hard to pierce yet they are significantly lighter than anything else the USA or Germany can field. The RATNIK gear will also include a new rifle. Rigorous tests are being done to decide which weapon will be adopted in service. Both Kalashnikov’s new AK-12 and Kovrov’s A-545 are pre-selected and approved. But only one will be fielded in large numbers to replace the existing AK-74.
The AK-12 and A-545 are contenders for the RATNIK
program
Another race is ongoing to select the future squad machine to replace the aging RPK. Once again, Kalashnikov and Kovrov are in the forefront. Here are a couple of videos showing some of the contenders:
РПК-16: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmwmTPVN1A4
Urgently looking new Russian AK machine gun heavy machine-gun firepower and high precision of 96 pa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or5xjppar2U
A new sniper rifle and other goodies are also in the works.
No army is complete without spearhead units that are tasked with the most difficult and most important missions. Russia has 3 such groups:
- The airborne troops called VDV: The call-sign of these highly trained and highly motivated elite forces is: Nikto Krome Nas (no one besides us). The VDV comprises 4 Divisions and 5 separate Brigades. These quick reaction units can be deployed at a moment’s notice by parachute airdrop, conventional air transport, by ship or by land. They use tactics consisting of a powerful strike coupled with element of surprise. They exploit weak areas of the opponent and make sweeping movements to surround, outmaneuver and confuse them. During the 2008 Georgia conflict, VDV units participated in reversing the Georgian attack and made landings on the coast of Abkhazia. VDV units are at the forefront of re-equipment. They are already getting the RATNIK gear and the new version of the air-droppable BMD-4M fighting vehicle as well as the RAKUSHKA armored personnel carrier. They have just received the latest VERBA Man Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) that is replacing the older but still excellent IGLA.
BMD-4M
- The Morskaya Pekhota (Morpekh) is the Russian equivalent of the US Marines: Their call sign is: Were we stand, there is victory. This elite amphibious force is tasked mainly to conduct landings on beaches. Much smaller in size compared to their US equivalent, their scope of action has traditionally been limited to the seas immediately adjacent to Russia/Soviet Union. This force received a major setback when the deal on French MISTRAL type large amphibious ships collapsed. Nevertheless, the Russian High Command considers these units as second only to the VDV and is embarking on modernizing them.
- While the VDV and the Morpekh are considered as elite and highly professional, the Spetsnaz (spetsialnogo naznacheniya) are truly “special forces” that undergo the most rigorous training. The main tasks of such forces include: infiltrations, sabotage, diversionary actions, anti-terrorist operations etc. Currently, Russian Spetsnaz units are highly involved in gunning down any terrorists that pop-up in the Caucasus region.
The Open Seas
I find the Russian military potential to be comparable or even superior to the West’s in most areas. However, when it comes to sea warfare, the Russians have some catching up to do. A nation must build a navy to become an empire and not vice versa. The first Emperor of Russia (Peter the Great) started beating the Ottomans in Azov only after building a navy. Similarly, he captured the Baltic coast (to build the city of St. Petersburg later on) only after building a navy capable of beating the powerful Swedish navy. Yet, Russia has traditionally been a land power…and it is still is.
The enemies of modern Russia are now consistently creating wars and conflicts at the periphery of the Bear’s territory. The Kremlin will be able to take the fight back to the opponent’s backyards only by having a large navy that can project power, protect and assist friends and allies in distant lands and sometimes intervene in the same manner the USA and allies do to “punish” anyone who does not follow the assigned line.
Today, the bulk of the Russian Navy is tasked to defend the fatherland with a few hundred small to medium sized ships including corvettes, patrol boats, missile boats and minesweepers that are ideal for places like the Baltic, Black sea and the Sea of Japan. They may also do a decent job in not too far away places like the Eastern Mediterranean. But, to sail into the South Atlantic or the Indian Ocean, a good number of large Ocean-going ships are required.
Currently the Russian Navy’s ocean-going surface component consists of just one aircraft carrier, a handful of cruisers, a couple of dozen destroyers and frigates and about twenty medium –sized landing ships. Furthermore, not all of these vessels are available at any given time because a portion of them will be in docks for repairs, overhauls and modernizations. So, in case one of Russia’s South American friends is bullied by the USA, Russia will be able to dispatch just a few precious ships to counter the might of the US Navy that has many times more large warships.
The most potent branch of the Russian Navy is its submarine fleet. It is only a fraction of the size it used to be in Soviet times but it is considered to be strong enough to be a credible deterrent against the US Navy. Yet, it is currently plagued by too many boats that are waiting for their turn to go into docks for lengthy overhauls and modernizations. This problem has occurred because too many scheduled refits were postponed in bleaker economic times. In any case, submarines are mainly a “disruptive” force: they can’t land tanks and troops and provide the necessary support to friendly countries the way a surface fleet can.
For the foreseeable future and with the available assets, the Russian Navy will be able to complete its tasks in the seas adjacent to its borders and in waters that are not too far away (like Syria). Places like Libya will present a bigger challenge. Conducting major operations further away (like off the coast of Venezuela) will be near impossible. The Navy high Command is well aware of the situation. That is why the MISTRAL type large amphibious ships were ordered from France to partly remedy to the shortage of ocean-going ships. The West cancelled the deal to prevent the Bear the liberty to stretch too far away.
A few years ago, the Navy ordered 6 units each from two different classes of large frigates: Admiral Grigorovich class and Admiral Gorshkov class. Construction started, but only 3 of the former and 2 of the later will be completed on time. The rest of the ships are delayed because the engines of these ships contain Ukrainian components that are being held by the pro-West Kiev government. It will take time to substitute them with domestic ones.
Video of the Admiral Gorshkov on sea trials:
Fortunately, submarine construction is hardly affected by sanctions. By the beginning of next decade, the Navy’s high command plans to have in service 8 BOREI class strategic nuclear submarines carrying the BULAVA missile. The first 3 boats are already patrolling the oceans; the other 5 are in various stages of construction, one of them is called Czar Alexander III. Six large multipurpose large attack submarines of the YASEN class are also ordered with the first one already in service. To make up numbers, the Russians are also building a series of smaller KILO class conventional (diesel/electric) submarines for less demanding tasks, these will soon be followed on the building slips by a new type of submarine (Project KALINA) that uses a modern air-independent propulsion system.
All of above non-strategic submarines will use the KALIBR cruise missile system. The larger boats will also carry the modern ONYX anti-ship missile (500km range at speed of Mach 3) and eventually the earlier mentioned hypersonic ZIRCON that is rumored to have a speed of Mach 6 and a range of 1000 km. Existing submarines of various classes (including the massive OSCAR class) are currently in the process of modernization: they will be able to carry KALIBR missile for example. But let me reiterate: submarines are more like a “disruptive” force. They can inflict heavy blows to the opponent’s fleet (with anti-ship missiles and torpedoes) and to its land based assets (with cruise missiles). However, they cannot contribute much to land operations in the form of troops, air defense or air support; for that, large surface ships are a must.
To rectify that, the Russians had long term plans: once the 2 MISTRAL ships were acquired from France, they were going to build an additional two locally. There were also plans to start building a few aircraft carriers during the next decade too. To support and protect these vessels, a bunch of cruisers and destroyers/frigates were contemplated…and then we had the Ukraine conflict with the associated sanctions, economic constraints and the fall in value of oil and other natural resources. The MISTRAL deal was cancelled and Russia’s grandiose plan for a large blue-water surface fleet was torpedoed. A new plan is being put together. The Navy is now considering two domestically built classes of amphibious vessels: One that is a bit larger than the MISTRALs is called Project LAVINA, and another one called Project PRIBOY that is smaller than the MISTRALs. Latest rumors speak of both classes going into production.
Project LAVINA
The aircraft carrier project may still be on, however I doubt we will see any for a number of reasons, among them: finances, shipyard availability and a planned expansion and modernization of the long-range bomber fleet (New Tu-160 and PAK-DA) which take over some of the missions tasked to carriers. In addition, the proliferation of cruise missiles among Russian ranks mitigates the need for those super expensive aircraft carriers. What seems to be approved for production is a class of destroyers under the project LEADER. At 17000 tons and with nuclear propulsion, these are really large cruisers that are almost as big as the Peter the Great. Provided that everything goes as planned and in a best case scenario Russia will have a sufficiently large ocean-going surface fleet sometime towards the end of the next decade. That will give the Bear longer arms to reach further in global geopolitics. In the meanwhile, the Kremlin will have to expand its global influence with the existing assets and by other means that don’t involve military might.
The Polar Bear
Throughout the ages mankind has tapped, exploited and often extirpated the planet’s natural resources. The appetite for keeping on doing the same is not going to recede in the future even though the resources will diminish. As resources become scarce, the appetite will grow. The world’s largest untapped resources are now in the Arctic…and the lion’s share of them happens to be within the hunting grounds of the Bear. Realizing that there are packs of wolves and flocks of vultures looking forward to pillage these resources, the Bear set up his plans to defend his territory. First, an expedition led by a Russian scientist of Armenian descent (Arthur Chilingarov) planted the Russian flag at the bottom of the Arctic. It may have sounded like a symbolic or patriotic gesture, but it was much more than that: the Bear was marking its territory as a warning to others. Next, came the orders for all sorts of icebreakers to navigate and patrol the icy waters. Some of the icebreakers (like the project 23550 class) are going to be Navy operated and will be KALIBR capable.
The ABM Encroachment
The Obama administration’s decision to deploy ABM systems in Poland and Romania is a serious threat to world peace. The media markets these ABM systems as a “missile defense shield” that will shot down Russian ICBMs thus making a nuclear war winnable for the USA. In fact this is not an insurmountable problem at all for the Russian military. Shield or no shield, all the US/NATO targets will be destroyed in case of global war. These ABM sites are simply incapable of intercepting the latest Russian Ballistic missiles and upcoming hypersonic missiles. Russia’s nuclear strike force will prevail. For the Russians, the problem is different; the Kremlin is worried about the use of these ABM launchers to launch a different missile against Russia: Cruise missiles can be launched from the same launchers of the ABM system. These are not "defensive" weapons. These are first-strike weapons.
The SK-16 is a Potential Future Sniper rifle
The Specials
No army is complete without spearhead units that are tasked with the most difficult and most important missions. Russia has 3 such groups:
- The airborne troops called VDV: The call-sign of these highly trained and highly motivated elite forces is: Nikto Krome Nas (no one besides us). The VDV comprises 4 Divisions and 5 separate Brigades. These quick reaction units can be deployed at a moment’s notice by parachute airdrop, conventional air transport, by ship or by land. They use tactics consisting of a powerful strike coupled with element of surprise. They exploit weak areas of the opponent and make sweeping movements to surround, outmaneuver and confuse them. During the 2008 Georgia conflict, VDV units participated in reversing the Georgian attack and made landings on the coast of Abkhazia. VDV units are at the forefront of re-equipment. They are already getting the RATNIK gear and the new version of the air-droppable BMD-4M fighting vehicle as well as the RAKUSHKA armored personnel carrier. They have just received the latest VERBA Man Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) that is replacing the older but still excellent IGLA.
BMD-4M
- The Morskaya Pekhota (Morpekh) is the Russian equivalent of the US Marines: Their call sign is: Were we stand, there is victory. This elite amphibious force is tasked mainly to conduct landings on beaches. Much smaller in size compared to their US equivalent, their scope of action has traditionally been limited to the seas immediately adjacent to Russia/Soviet Union. This force received a major setback when the deal on French MISTRAL type large amphibious ships collapsed. Nevertheless, the Russian High Command considers these units as second only to the VDV and is embarking on modernizing them.
- While the VDV and the Morpekh are considered as elite and highly professional, the Spetsnaz (spetsialnogo naznacheniya) are truly “special forces” that undergo the most rigorous training. The main tasks of such forces include: infiltrations, sabotage, diversionary actions, anti-terrorist operations etc. Currently, Russian Spetsnaz units are highly involved in gunning down any terrorists that pop-up in the Caucasus region.
The Open Seas
I find the Russian military potential to be comparable or even superior to the West’s in most areas. However, when it comes to sea warfare, the Russians have some catching up to do. A nation must build a navy to become an empire and not vice versa. The first Emperor of Russia (Peter the Great) started beating the Ottomans in Azov only after building a navy. Similarly, he captured the Baltic coast (to build the city of St. Petersburg later on) only after building a navy capable of beating the powerful Swedish navy. Yet, Russia has traditionally been a land power…and it is still is.
The enemies of modern Russia are now consistently creating wars and conflicts at the periphery of the Bear’s territory. The Kremlin will be able to take the fight back to the opponent’s backyards only by having a large navy that can project power, protect and assist friends and allies in distant lands and sometimes intervene in the same manner the USA and allies do to “punish” anyone who does not follow the assigned line.
Today, the bulk of the Russian Navy is tasked to defend the fatherland with a few hundred small to medium sized ships including corvettes, patrol boats, missile boats and minesweepers that are ideal for places like the Baltic, Black sea and the Sea of Japan. They may also do a decent job in not too far away places like the Eastern Mediterranean. But, to sail into the South Atlantic or the Indian Ocean, a good number of large Ocean-going ships are required.
Currently the Russian Navy’s ocean-going surface component consists of just one aircraft carrier, a handful of cruisers, a couple of dozen destroyers and frigates and about twenty medium –sized landing ships. Furthermore, not all of these vessels are available at any given time because a portion of them will be in docks for repairs, overhauls and modernizations. So, in case one of Russia’s South American friends is bullied by the USA, Russia will be able to dispatch just a few precious ships to counter the might of the US Navy that has many times more large warships.
Severodvinsk Nuclear Submarine (YASEN Class)
The most potent branch of the Russian Navy is its submarine fleet. It is only a fraction of the size it used to be in Soviet times but it is considered to be strong enough to be a credible deterrent against the US Navy. Yet, it is currently plagued by too many boats that are waiting for their turn to go into docks for lengthy overhauls and modernizations. This problem has occurred because too many scheduled refits were postponed in bleaker economic times. In any case, submarines are mainly a “disruptive” force: they can’t land tanks and troops and provide the necessary support to friendly countries the way a surface fleet can.
For the foreseeable future and with the available assets, the Russian Navy will be able to complete its tasks in the seas adjacent to its borders and in waters that are not too far away (like Syria). Places like Libya will present a bigger challenge. Conducting major operations further away (like off the coast of Venezuela) will be near impossible. The Navy high Command is well aware of the situation. That is why the MISTRAL type large amphibious ships were ordered from France to partly remedy to the shortage of ocean-going ships. The West cancelled the deal to prevent the Bear the liberty to stretch too far away.
A few years ago, the Navy ordered 6 units each from two different classes of large frigates: Admiral Grigorovich class and Admiral Gorshkov class. Construction started, but only 3 of the former and 2 of the later will be completed on time. The rest of the ships are delayed because the engines of these ships contain Ukrainian components that are being held by the pro-West Kiev government. It will take time to substitute them with domestic ones.
Video of the Admiral Gorshkov on sea trials:
фрегат Адмирал Горшков: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyVuK4zRwSs
Video of the Admiral Grigorovich on sea trials:
Another
blow to the Navy came from the Germans. Construction of the smaller
BUYAN type missile corvettes (the ships that carried out of the much
publicized KALIBR cruise missile in Syria from the Caspian Sea) has
halted after 5 units were completed because they use German made diesels
which are under sanctions. The remaining 4 ships will have to wait for
alternative made in Russia or China engines. Similar Corvettes of a
newer class called KARAKUT have recently been ordered, these are being
made of exclusively domestic parts. One of these boats is being built in
Crimea, it will be the first Crimean built Russian warship since the
peninsula’s return to the motherland.Сторожевой корабль ВМФ РФ «уничтожил» самолет «противника» над Балтикой: https://www.youtube.com
KARAKURT Class Missile Corvette
Fortunately, submarine construction is hardly affected by sanctions. By the beginning of next decade, the Navy’s high command plans to have in service 8 BOREI class strategic nuclear submarines carrying the BULAVA missile. The first 3 boats are already patrolling the oceans; the other 5 are in various stages of construction, one of them is called Czar Alexander III. Six large multipurpose large attack submarines of the YASEN class are also ordered with the first one already in service. To make up numbers, the Russians are also building a series of smaller KILO class conventional (diesel/electric) submarines for less demanding tasks, these will soon be followed on the building slips by a new type of submarine (Project KALINA) that uses a modern air-independent propulsion system.
All of above non-strategic submarines will use the KALIBR cruise missile system. The larger boats will also carry the modern ONYX anti-ship missile (500km range at speed of Mach 3) and eventually the earlier mentioned hypersonic ZIRCON that is rumored to have a speed of Mach 6 and a range of 1000 km. Existing submarines of various classes (including the massive OSCAR class) are currently in the process of modernization: they will be able to carry KALIBR missile for example. But let me reiterate: submarines are more like a “disruptive” force. They can inflict heavy blows to the opponent’s fleet (with anti-ship missiles and torpedoes) and to its land based assets (with cruise missiles). However, they cannot contribute much to land operations in the form of troops, air defense or air support; for that, large surface ships are a must.
To rectify that, the Russians had long term plans: once the 2 MISTRAL ships were acquired from France, they were going to build an additional two locally. There were also plans to start building a few aircraft carriers during the next decade too. To support and protect these vessels, a bunch of cruisers and destroyers/frigates were contemplated…and then we had the Ukraine conflict with the associated sanctions, economic constraints and the fall in value of oil and other natural resources. The MISTRAL deal was cancelled and Russia’s grandiose plan for a large blue-water surface fleet was torpedoed. A new plan is being put together. The Navy is now considering two domestically built classes of amphibious vessels: One that is a bit larger than the MISTRALs is called Project LAVINA, and another one called Project PRIBOY that is smaller than the MISTRALs. Latest rumors speak of both classes going into production.
Project LAVINA
The aircraft carrier project may still be on, however I doubt we will see any for a number of reasons, among them: finances, shipyard availability and a planned expansion and modernization of the long-range bomber fleet (New Tu-160 and PAK-DA) which take over some of the missions tasked to carriers. In addition, the proliferation of cruise missiles among Russian ranks mitigates the need for those super expensive aircraft carriers. What seems to be approved for production is a class of destroyers under the project LEADER. At 17000 tons and with nuclear propulsion, these are really large cruisers that are almost as big as the Peter the Great. Provided that everything goes as planned and in a best case scenario Russia will have a sufficiently large ocean-going surface fleet sometime towards the end of the next decade. That will give the Bear longer arms to reach further in global geopolitics. In the meanwhile, the Kremlin will have to expand its global influence with the existing assets and by other means that don’t involve military might.
The Polar Bear
Throughout the ages mankind has tapped, exploited and often extirpated the planet’s natural resources. The appetite for keeping on doing the same is not going to recede in the future even though the resources will diminish. As resources become scarce, the appetite will grow. The world’s largest untapped resources are now in the Arctic…and the lion’s share of them happens to be within the hunting grounds of the Bear. Realizing that there are packs of wolves and flocks of vultures looking forward to pillage these resources, the Bear set up his plans to defend his territory. First, an expedition led by a Russian scientist of Armenian descent (Arthur Chilingarov) planted the Russian flag at the bottom of the Arctic. It may have sounded like a symbolic or patriotic gesture, but it was much more than that: the Bear was marking its territory as a warning to others. Next, came the orders for all sorts of icebreakers to navigate and patrol the icy waters. Some of the icebreakers (like the project 23550 class) are going to be Navy operated and will be KALIBR capable.
Project 23550 Armed Icebreaker
Here is a video of one the largest civilian icebreakers
being currently built:
Project 22220 - Nuclear Icebreaker - Проект 22220 (ЛК60Я) атомный ледокол: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPQ1SBKwPbE
Later on, the Bear started carrying on a number of military
exercises in the area. Troops equipped with special arctic gear conducted
landings and other activities in ever increasing scale. The gear of these
“arctic units” encompasses everything from special thermal garments to
transport equipment that includes arctic crawlers as well as covered and heated
snow-mobiles. This video shows a bit of what I am talking about:
2016 - New Russian Military Snowmobile - TTM-1901 "Golden Eagle-2" * ТТМ-1901 "Беркут-2": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvnVh3N_czE
Eventually, the Bear started building bases in the Arctic. Recently, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited
one of these bases. Here is a video report of that particular ice-citadel:
Ледовая цитадель. Специальный репортаж Дмитрия Кодаченко: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxb58za6h2k
The Bear’s defenses in the Arctic
are in an advanced stage and are far ahead of all the other countries combined.
There will be no encroachment on the Bear’s icy territory.
The ABM Encroachment
The Obama administration’s decision to deploy ABM systems in Poland and Romania is a serious threat to world peace. The media markets these ABM systems as a “missile defense shield” that will shot down Russian ICBMs thus making a nuclear war winnable for the USA. In fact this is not an insurmountable problem at all for the Russian military. Shield or no shield, all the US/NATO targets will be destroyed in case of global war. These ABM sites are simply incapable of intercepting the latest Russian Ballistic missiles and upcoming hypersonic missiles. Russia’s nuclear strike force will prevail. For the Russians, the problem is different; the Kremlin is worried about the use of these ABM launchers to launch a different missile against Russia: Cruise missiles can be launched from the same launchers of the ABM system. These are not "defensive" weapons. These are first-strike weapons.
Here is what President Putin said after meeting his security council:
Deveselu ABM base in Romania
It will not be Russia who will attack first. This simplest fact is beyond the grasp (or deliberate calculations) of many in the political West. But, by looking at what’s going around in the world, it seems Washington is hell bent on creating a situation where things may get out of control. Today, the main difference between the current cold war and the previous one is the fact that Russia does now possess massive conventional stand-off capability (cruise missiles) coupled with a superior nuclear strike force (ICBMs and SLBMs) and an outstanding air defense network (SAMs). In fact, real military professionals in the US do realize that NATO can’t win conventionally anything in Russia's immediate vicinity. This fact doesn't sit well with many in the White House and the Pentagon.
The Mighty Dollar
The USA was once the greatest industrial power. For a long period of time, the US industrial complex supported the might of the US Dollar. Over the last few decades we all have been witnessing the de-industrialization of that country on a colossal scale. As the process continues unabated, it frightens me to think that most of us will live to see the day when the US financial markets will be done de jure, not just de facto. Having lost the backing of the industry, the US Dollar is today a currency that is supported by nothing but trust in US military power. The only thing which prevents many from dumping US treasuries is the US military might, or rather what it supposed to be capable of conventionally. Nobody is interested in the nuclear option, it is just too unthinkable). The US military is sure as hell capable of sending back conventionally any third world country to the stone age and whatever passes as their armies into a pile of rusting junks. But Russia is not third world... And then, the Syria intervention happened and the whole hell broke loose precisely because politicians and masses in the West began to sense and understand the simple fact that there is another military power which fields similar, if not superior, conventional military capabilities! This happens to be a massive threat to the American privilege of being the owner of global reserve currency, which rests on the US being the sole conventional military superpower. It is also a threat to a livelihood of the Western Elites who did view themselves as militarily, hence financially, untouchable.
Dear Elites and dear One Percent of population, things have changed since. Those damn Russkies not only have the most advanced nuclear deterrent in the world but have beaten the US/NATO at their game of conventional high precision weapons. We are talking here of a change of military paradigm, a tectonic shift has happened right in front of the blind eyes of the West. Yes, Russia has indeed risen!
The West’s shock was so great when the relatively small BUYAN corvettes of the Caspian Flotilla (not even a fleet) delivered their first conventional cruise missile strike in Syria. Now, let the US/NATO generals and admirals visualize the deployment by Russia of these same cruise missiles (this time on nuclear submarines, such as the modernized OSCARs , the brand new YASENs or the perspective submarines with air independent propulsion) right off the US shores to make conventional precision strikes on US territory a reality. Can they contemplate the thought of US citizens enduring what the citizens of Iraq, Serbia and Libya went through? Let me say this clearly, the notion of US/NATO and Russia getting into the open conflict is unthinkable. Yet, I tremble at the thought that some idiot in the high corridors of power would make a stupid mistake. Unfortunately, such morons do exist in the corridors of power in Washington and London. These idiots who never served a day in their life in a military institution are in fact trying their best to provoke the Russians even at the edges of the Bear’s territory in Europe. As for the well-being of the Europeans: Victoria Nuland said it: F*** the EU.
The Epilogue
Modern Russia is a superpower that is more than capable of defending itself. Its influence on world geopolitics has grown immensely over the last 16 years since Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin came to power. A good part of this increased influence has been due the modernization and strengthening of its armed forces. As recent history has demonstrated, Russia will also defend its valuable allies. It has the will, courage and capability to send its army to foreign lands when the time comes.
"This is an obvious violation of the Short and Medium Range Missile Treaty, since these missile-launchers which will be deployed at the sites in Romania and Poland upon activation of the Radars there could easily be reconfigured for short and medium range missiles. This reconfiguration of the launchers could be done in a very short time and for us it will be impossible to see what is going on there. We will not be able to control it and this is an additional threat to us."Would the USA disregard existing treaties and deploy these offensive weapons in Europe? I fully expect that the incompetent, irrational, power hungry elites in that country who suffer from “Chronic Exceptionalism Syndrome” to absolutely go ahead and do that. What would the Bear’s response be to that threat? God forbid, if things go hot between US/NATO and Russia and a conventional high-precision shoot-out occurs, the first layer of defense will be Russia’s vastly superior air defense network engaging the incoming missiles. Next, NATO’s ABM sites will themselves be attacked by volleys of KALIBR, Kh-101, Kh-55, ISKANDER and other precision weapons launched from anywhere from Kaliningrad in the Baltic to Crimea (and we all do realize the strategic importance of that peninsula) in the Black Sea by BUYAN and KARAKURT corvettes, KILO submarines and Tu-160 bombers among many other things that are all well within both the range to Deveselu Air Base in Romania and the Polish missile installations. Here is what President Putin said after meeting his security council:
"This is an obvious violation of the Short and Medium Range Missile Treaty, since these missile-launchers which will be deployed at the sites in Romania and Poland upon activation of the Radars there could easily be reconfigured for short and medium range missiles. This reconfiguration of the launchers could be done in a very short time and for us it will be impossible to see what is going on there. We will not be able to control it and this is an additional threat to us."Would the USA disregard existing treaties and deploy these offensive weapons in Europe? I fully expect that the incompetent, irrational, power hungry elites in that country who suffer from “Chronic Exceptionalism Syndrome” to absolutely go ahead and do that. What would the Bear’s response be to that threat? God forbid, if things go hot between US/NATO and Russia and a conventional high-precision shoot-out occurs, the first layer of defense will be Russia’s vastly superior air defense network engaging the incoming missiles. Next, NATO’s ABM sites will themselves be attacked by volleys of KALIBR, Kh-101, Kh-55, ISKANDER and other precision weapons launched from anywhere from Kaliningrad in the Baltic to Crimea (and we all do realize the strategic importance of that peninsula) in the Black Sea by BUYAN and KARAKURT corvettes, KILO submarines and Tu-160 bombers among many other things that are all well within both the range to Deveselu Air Base in Romania and the Polish missile installations.
Deveselu ABM base in Romania
It will not be Russia who will attack first. This simplest fact is beyond the grasp (or deliberate calculations) of many in the political West. But, by looking at what’s going around in the world, it seems Washington is hell bent on creating a situation where things may get out of control. Today, the main difference between the current cold war and the previous one is the fact that Russia does now possess massive conventional stand-off capability (cruise missiles) coupled with a superior nuclear strike force (ICBMs and SLBMs) and an outstanding air defense network (SAMs). In fact, real military professionals in the US do realize that NATO can’t win conventionally anything in Russia's immediate vicinity. This fact doesn't sit well with many in the White House and the Pentagon.
The Mighty Dollar
The USA was once the greatest industrial power. For a long period of time, the US industrial complex supported the might of the US Dollar. Over the last few decades we all have been witnessing the de-industrialization of that country on a colossal scale. As the process continues unabated, it frightens me to think that most of us will live to see the day when the US financial markets will be done de jure, not just de facto. Having lost the backing of the industry, the US Dollar is today a currency that is supported by nothing but trust in US military power. The only thing which prevents many from dumping US treasuries is the US military might, or rather what it supposed to be capable of conventionally. Nobody is interested in the nuclear option, it is just too unthinkable). The US military is sure as hell capable of sending back conventionally any third world country to the stone age and whatever passes as their armies into a pile of rusting junks. But Russia is not third world... And then, the Syria intervention happened and the whole hell broke loose precisely because politicians and masses in the West began to sense and understand the simple fact that there is another military power which fields similar, if not superior, conventional military capabilities! This happens to be a massive threat to the American privilege of being the owner of global reserve currency, which rests on the US being the sole conventional military superpower. It is also a threat to a livelihood of the Western Elites who did view themselves as militarily, hence financially, untouchable.
Dear Elites and dear One Percent of population, things have changed since. Those damn Russkies not only have the most advanced nuclear deterrent in the world but have beaten the US/NATO at their game of conventional high precision weapons. We are talking here of a change of military paradigm, a tectonic shift has happened right in front of the blind eyes of the West. Yes, Russia has indeed risen!
The West’s shock was so great when the relatively small BUYAN corvettes of the Caspian Flotilla (not even a fleet) delivered their first conventional cruise missile strike in Syria. Now, let the US/NATO generals and admirals visualize the deployment by Russia of these same cruise missiles (this time on nuclear submarines, such as the modernized OSCARs , the brand new YASENs or the perspective submarines with air independent propulsion) right off the US shores to make conventional precision strikes on US territory a reality. Can they contemplate the thought of US citizens enduring what the citizens of Iraq, Serbia and Libya went through? Let me say this clearly, the notion of US/NATO and Russia getting into the open conflict is unthinkable. Yet, I tremble at the thought that some idiot in the high corridors of power would make a stupid mistake. Unfortunately, such morons do exist in the corridors of power in Washington and London. These idiots who never served a day in their life in a military institution are in fact trying their best to provoke the Russians even at the edges of the Bear’s territory in Europe. As for the well-being of the Europeans: Victoria Nuland said it: F*** the EU.
The Epilogue
Modern Russia is a superpower that is more than capable of defending itself. Its influence on world geopolitics has grown immensely over the last 16 years since Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin came to power. A good part of this increased influence has been due the modernization and strengthening of its armed forces. As recent history has demonstrated, Russia will also defend its valuable allies. It has the will, courage and capability to send its army to foreign lands when the time comes.
Thank
God Armenia is not far from Russia. Thank God our beloved country
happens to be within easy reach of the Bear’s den. Thank God we live in
the Bear’s backyard that it keeps an eye on. As a patriotic Armenian, I
wish the Bear will never have to come up roaring on our enemies to
defend us. We should be able to protect ourselves. But let’s be
realistic: Our enemies (the Turks and Azerbaijanis) have many times more
people, much larger armies and considerably bigger finances. What are
our chances if we are left alone? What are our chances if the Bear is
not around?
Unfortunately, we have in our population a small but significant fraction who sometimes wants to throw rocks at the Bear. I am not talking about the traitors and fifth columnists who are on the payroll of well know embassies of foreign countries, these people do not qualify as Armenians. I am talking about people who think that Armenians are strong enough, brave enough and capable enough to beat all the Turkic nations combined! May God grant these “wannabe fedayees” a bit of maturity, wisdom and pragmatism.
This all brings us back to the April 2016 four day war over Artsakh. The Western operatives among us and some of our naïve compatriots are accusing our only true ally (Russia) of arming the Azerbaijan army and claiming that the recent Russian arms were used against us. Nothing could be so far from the truth: I actively watched the equipment used by the Azeris during the conflict (photos and videos). More specifically, I kept an eye on any use of the recently delivered Russian hardware that is creating so much controversy among some of our more emotional compatriots. Here are my observations:
There is no evidence that indicates that the Azeris used these latest weapons sold by Russia over the last few years.
1) Our Defense Ministry has mentioned that our forces engaged and destroyed a number of Azeri T-90 tanks. Yet, not a single photo or video evidence emerged showing T-90s, dead or alive. All the tanks that were shown were various iterations of the venerable T-72. I am deeply sorry to say that the Ministry has lost all credibility. Their claims and bulletins sound like they are coming from the Arab world.
2) Our side has claimed that our opponent has used the TOS-1 thermobaric artillery system and that we destroyed one of their units. I have yet to see any photo or video of destruction, carnage or incineration that I can attribute to that system.
3) There is one instance in which Artsakh was hit by Smerch rockets. There are some photos. But the Azeris had in their arsenal this weapon for over ten years now; they had received them form Ukraine.
4) The Mi-24 helicopter that we shot down was not one of the newer Mi-35 that was delivered by Russia. They had that older Mi-24 for a long while and it happens to be one of the airframes that was modernized by South Africa many years ago.
5) None of the BMP-3, Vena and other weaponry recently acquired from Russia was seen in any sort or form.
6) Baku used all the “Made in Israel” shiny toys (UAVs, Kamikaze drones, long range anti-tank guided missiles etc.) without any hesitation during the clashes. Yet, for some reasons, they have refrained from using the new equipment that came from Russia.
Unfortunately, we have in our population a small but significant fraction who sometimes wants to throw rocks at the Bear. I am not talking about the traitors and fifth columnists who are on the payroll of well know embassies of foreign countries, these people do not qualify as Armenians. I am talking about people who think that Armenians are strong enough, brave enough and capable enough to beat all the Turkic nations combined! May God grant these “wannabe fedayees” a bit of maturity, wisdom and pragmatism.
Post Scriptum: The 4 Day Artsakh War
This all brings us back to the April 2016 four day war over Artsakh. The Western operatives among us and some of our naïve compatriots are accusing our only true ally (Russia) of arming the Azerbaijan army and claiming that the recent Russian arms were used against us. Nothing could be so far from the truth: I actively watched the equipment used by the Azeris during the conflict (photos and videos). More specifically, I kept an eye on any use of the recently delivered Russian hardware that is creating so much controversy among some of our more emotional compatriots. Here are my observations:
There is no evidence that indicates that the Azeris used these latest weapons sold by Russia over the last few years.
1) Our Defense Ministry has mentioned that our forces engaged and destroyed a number of Azeri T-90 tanks. Yet, not a single photo or video evidence emerged showing T-90s, dead or alive. All the tanks that were shown were various iterations of the venerable T-72. I am deeply sorry to say that the Ministry has lost all credibility. Their claims and bulletins sound like they are coming from the Arab world.
2) Our side has claimed that our opponent has used the TOS-1 thermobaric artillery system and that we destroyed one of their units. I have yet to see any photo or video of destruction, carnage or incineration that I can attribute to that system.
3) There is one instance in which Artsakh was hit by Smerch rockets. There are some photos. But the Azeris had in their arsenal this weapon for over ten years now; they had received them form Ukraine.
4) The Mi-24 helicopter that we shot down was not one of the newer Mi-35 that was delivered by Russia. They had that older Mi-24 for a long while and it happens to be one of the airframes that was modernized by South Africa many years ago.
5) None of the BMP-3, Vena and other weaponry recently acquired from Russia was seen in any sort or form.
6) Baku used all the “Made in Israel” shiny toys (UAVs, Kamikaze drones, long range anti-tank guided missiles etc.) without any hesitation during the clashes. Yet, for some reasons, they have refrained from using the new equipment that came from Russia.
I
reiterate: I am deeply sorry to say that our leadership has lost
credibility in my eyes. Are they trying to cover their mistakes by
distorting certain things? Are they pointing fingers elsewhere? Are they
trying to blame Russia?
So, what happened on our highlands during those tense few days on the borders? Here is a quick summary of how I see things:
The GOOD: Our soldiers held their ground as much as possible. They fought well with the equipment they had and under the circumstances they were in.
The BAD: There was too much reliance on positional warfare (trench warfare), too little concealment and camouflage of assets, too little first-hand information on what the opponent was doing.
The UGLY: The Azeris had an advantage in having more modern weapons and equipment. Our Defense Ministry simply did not do enough to keep the Military Balance.
During the nineties and first decade of the century, our Leadership was able to maintain an edge over the opponent by introducing major weapon systems: SCUD, TOCHKA, S-300 from Russia and WM-80 MLRS from China for example. Then they became complacent and took a break. During the last few years, the only major item the Armenian armed forces received was a KUB (SAM-6) air defense system that was transferred to us (free of charge) from the Russian contingent in Gyumri. At the same time, the Azeris were arming themselves to their teeth thanks to their oil money. By not taking the appropriate measures, our Leaders are partly to blame for creating the conditions that encouraged Aliev to launch the April four day war.
KUB (SAM-6) Air Defense System in Artsakh
We managed to keep the status-quo over Artsakh for 2 decades. Baku wants to change that by initiating clashes and creating conflict. What to do now? If we want to maintain the status-quo and not make any territorial concessions, we must tilt back the balance of power to our favor. Military balance parity is the bare minimum to deter Azerbaijani aggression. The $200 million arms procurement deal that we agreed with our Russian allies is a good start. Yes, that deal should have happened a few years ago. It should be followed by subsequent ones to ensure that Baku will never get adventurous. Funding such arms purchases should not be seen as a problem. Our Leadership will have to look for the solutions. Getting even closer to Russia is the right way to go. It is no secret that we buy arms from them at heavily discounted prices. And yes, conducting “complimentary politics”, “getting in bed” with the West and “blaming Russia” are definitely bad ideas Please allow me to make this clear, if we cannot maintain the “military balance” over our Artsakh highlands we will have to sit down at the negotiating table and be prepared to accept some territorial concessions in order to preserve peace.
So, either we get stronger and we keep the “no-war no-peace” status quo or we negotiate a settlement that will see Russian troops in Artsakh guaranteeing our peace and security over the areas of Artsakh that remain in our hands. It is our choice. Our Russian allies will support us whatever our decision will be. But, we need to do right things first.
Zoravar
***
Thinking the Unthinkable: Russia Has Re-Emerged As a Great Power
The Western image of Russia and Putin in recent years has been very negative. President Obama has publicly called Vladimir Putin a “schoolboy who slouches in his chair in the back of the room“ and derided his country as a mere “regional power.” This begs the question: how Russia could again become a major power after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991? How could Putin do this without an agrarian or consumer revolution and with the massive drop in the price of oil? If Putin is a terrible leader, then how can you explain successful interventions in Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014), Ukraine (2014-2016) and Syria (2015-2016)?
Putin, however, is actually a very shrewd leader with a brilliant Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, who relies on a capable Foreign Ministry. Putin has rebuilt Russia’s military capability by spending $49B a year on security. Russia retains 1,790 strategic nuclear weapons. With over 140 million people and 13 million college graduates, Russia has nearly a million first-class scientists, engineers and technicians, most of whom work for the military.
Many former great powers are now no longer major powers. Japan, which smashed the Russian army in the 1904 Sino-Japanese War, occupied much of China from 1937-1945 and has a four trillion dollar economy is no longer a great power. After its defeat in World War II capped by the American dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and American post-war occupation, Japan has sworn off further intervention in the world and refused to acquire nuclear weapons.
Europe, which once teemed with great powers such as Germany, France, England and Austro-Hungary, now has gone in another direction. Germany soundly beat the Russians in every World War I battle and came close to doing the same in 1941 and 1942. Today with weak power projection the three main powers have less than 1,000 mainline battle tanks and few aircraft carriers. Weak economic growth (1.5%/year), disputes among its 28 members, migration from the Middle East, serious problems with weaker members such as Greece, promote domestic over international issues.
China, with its ten trillion dollar GDP, over two trillion dollars of exports, over three trillion dollars in its reserve fund, 1.35 billion people and 3.7 million square miles of territory, is a future great power. It has made huge economic progress since Deng Xiaopong launched the Four Modernizations in 1978.
Yet, its remaining problems are staggering: enormous air pollution, 675 million peasants, huge governmental corruption, authoritarian one party dictatorship, lack of rule of law, rapidly aging population, hundreds of thousands of children raising themselves and only $7,500 GDP/capita. Its military, while boosted by 150 billion dollars of spending, still needs another decade to become a truly modern force. India has 20 percent illiteracy, 300 million people without electricity and a $1,300 GDP/capita that is less than three percent of the United States. It faces Pakistan soon with 200 atomic bombs. India, with over a billion people, will be a major power but not for several decades.
Then there is the United States, the sole global superpower since victory in the Cold War and one of two superpowers in the world since 1945. Its 18 trillion dollar economy, 17 of the world’s top 20 universities, world leadership in high technology, over 550 billion dollars in military spending and 330 million people give it serious advantages over Russia. But, with the rise of popular neo-isolationist Presidential candidates, the slowest economic recovery since the Great Depression, decline in its manufacturing sector, administration talk of reducing the size of the American military to the 1940 level, and the Obama semi-withdrawal from the Middle East, the door that had been shut to Russia has been open.
The unthinkable has become a reality. Russia, seemingly finished after its defeat in the Cold War, now is emerging as a prospective great power challenging the West. Russia has done the unthinkable—become a great power filling the void left by other former great powers that have now shrunk in size, power and influence.
Hypersonic warhead for future ICBM successfully tested in Russia – report
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/340588-hypersonic-warhead-sarmat-tested/
Russia’s hypersonic Zircon missile to go into serial production in 2018
Russia’s cutting-edge hypersonic missile Tsirkon (Zircon), which is now undergoing state tests is expected to go into serial production in 2018, a source in the Russian military-industrial complex told TASS on Tuesday."State tests of Zircon are scheduled for completion in 2017 in accordance with the contract, and the missile’s serial production is planned to be launched next year", the source said.In mid-February, a source in the Russian shipbuilding industry told TASS that Russian cutting-edge hypersonic missile 3M22 of the 3K22 Zircon system was in the development trials. The Project 11442 (NATO reporting name: Kirov-class) Pyotr Veliky (Perter the Great) nuclear-powered missile cruiser will carry the type following its upgrade, a shipbuilding industry source told TASS. According to the source, the Pyotr Veliky cruiser will start its repairs in the third or fourth quarter of 2019. Its repairs and upgrade are planned to be complete in late 2022, with the ship to be equipped with Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles.
Russia’s heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov will get in the course of modernization the Tsirkon (Zircon) hypersonic missiles, a source in the shipbuilding industry told TASS on Tuesday.Earlier, another source told TASS that the Zircon missiles are planned to be installed on the Pyotr Veliky (Peter the Great) cruiser of the same class, which is to undergo modernization after 2018. The Admiral Nakhimov warship should return to the Navy ranks by that time."The Admiral Nakhimov heavy missile cruiser’s deep modernization envisages the replacement of the warship’s missile strike system. As a result, the vessel will get the Zircon hypersonic missiles," the source said.
The Admiral Nakhimov (till 1992 - Kalinin) is a cruiser of Project 1144 (NATO reporting name Orlan). The vessel has a displacement of 24,500 tons and is armed, in particular, with the Granit anti-ship missiles, the Fort and Osa-MA anti-aircraft missile systems. The Admiral Nakhimov cruiser had been moored since 1999. Spring 2013 saw a contract signed for her repair and upgrade, with the ship placed in a dry dock in the fall of 2014.The tests of the 3K22 Zircon system are planned for completion by 2020. The system is expected to be unveiled in the air-launched and ship-based variants. Its characteristics are classified. According to open sources, the new missile’s range may reach 400 kilometers and it will travel five to six times faster than the speed of sound.Hypersonic weapons are missiles and aircraft capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5 and more - or five times the speed of sound. They are extremely difficult to intercept due to their overwhelming speed and maneuvering capabilities. Hypersonic technologies in general, used in weapons systems and prospective aircraft, were seen by experts as a game changer in future warfare.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/870751
Hypersonic Missile in Development Testing for Russian Navy Kirov-class Cruiser
Russian cutting-edge hypersonic missile 3M22 of the 3K22 Zircon system is in the development trials. The Project 11442 (NATO reporting name: Kirov-class) Pyotr Veliky nuclear-powered missile cruiser will carry the type following its upgrade, a shipbuilding industry source told TASS on Friday. "The Pyotr Veliky cruiser will start its repairs in the third or fourth quarter of 2019. Its repairs and upgrade are planned to be complete in late 2022, with the ship to be equipped with Zircon hypersonic antiship missiles. Now, the missile is in the development testing and will enter service, if it passes the tests," the source said. The tests of the 3K22 Zircon system are planned for completion by 2020. The system is expected to be unveiled in the air-launched and ship-based variants. Its characteristics are classified.
Navy Recognition understands that early rumors indicate the Indo-Russian BrahMos II hypersonic cruise missile may be an export variant of the Zircon (just as the BarhMos missile share many similarities with the Russian P-800 Oniks missile). The planned operational range of the BrahMos-II is about 300 kilometers and its speed is set to be around Mach 7 thanks to a ramjet engine.
Pyotr Veliky is the fourth Kirov class cruiser (and the only one operational today), a class of nuclear-powered warship of the Russian Navy. It is the largest and heaviest surface combatant warships after aircraft carriers currently in active operation in the world. As was reported in the press, the Sevmash Shipyard and the Special Machinebuilding Design Bureau (KBSM, a subsidiary of Almaz-Antei) made a deal for 10 3S-14-11442M vertical launch systems (VLS) to equip the Project 11442M Admiral Nakhimov missile cruiser being upgraded now. The contract is valued at 2.559 billion rubles ($33.5 million). Thus, the ship’s 20 inclined below-deck launchers of P-700 Granit antiship missiles (SS-N-19 Shipwreck) will be replaced with 10 VLS modules of the UKSK versatile ship-based launch system. The VLS modules will total 80. The same solution is expected to be applied to the Pyotr Veliky cruiser.
The 3S-14 VLS can launch the missiles of the Kalibr family (SS-N-27 Sizzler). In addition, the equipment for testing the VLS using mockups of the 3M-54, 3M55 and 3M22 antiship missiles is to be ready be December 2016.
The Project 11442 Pyotr Veliky nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser is designed to sink hostile ships, destroy land targets and provide air defense for its formation. The cruiser carries the 130-mm AK-130 gun, land-attack, antiship and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, Kortik SAM/gun close-in weapons systems and the Vodopad antisubmarine missile/torpedo system. The ship was launched in 1989 and commissioned with the Russian Navy in 1998. It displaces 24,500 tons and measures 251 m long. It has a full power of 140,000 hp, a speed of 31 knots and a crew of 728. The cruiser carries a Kamov Ka-27 (Helix) helicopter or a derivative thereof.
Navy Recognition understands that early rumors indicate the Indo-Russian BrahMos II hypersonic cruise missile may be an export variant of the Zircon (just as the BarhMos missile share many similarities with the Russian P-800 Oniks missile). The planned operational range of the BrahMos-II is about 300 kilometers and its speed is set to be around Mach 7 thanks to a ramjet engine.
Pyotr Veliky is the fourth Kirov class cruiser (and the only one operational today), a class of nuclear-powered warship of the Russian Navy. It is the largest and heaviest surface combatant warships after aircraft carriers currently in active operation in the world. As was reported in the press, the Sevmash Shipyard and the Special Machinebuilding Design Bureau (KBSM, a subsidiary of Almaz-Antei) made a deal for 10 3S-14-11442M vertical launch systems (VLS) to equip the Project 11442M Admiral Nakhimov missile cruiser being upgraded now. The contract is valued at 2.559 billion rubles ($33.5 million). Thus, the ship’s 20 inclined below-deck launchers of P-700 Granit antiship missiles (SS-N-19 Shipwreck) will be replaced with 10 VLS modules of the UKSK versatile ship-based launch system. The VLS modules will total 80. The same solution is expected to be applied to the Pyotr Veliky cruiser.
The 3S-14 VLS can launch the missiles of the Kalibr family (SS-N-27 Sizzler). In addition, the equipment for testing the VLS using mockups of the 3M-54, 3M55 and 3M22 antiship missiles is to be ready be December 2016.
The Project 11442 Pyotr Veliky nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser is designed to sink hostile ships, destroy land targets and provide air defense for its formation. The cruiser carries the 130-mm AK-130 gun, land-attack, antiship and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, Kortik SAM/gun close-in weapons systems and the Vodopad antisubmarine missile/torpedo system. The ship was launched in 1989 and commissioned with the Russian Navy in 1998. It displaces 24,500 tons and measures 251 m long. It has a full power of 140,000 hp, a speed of 31 knots and a crew of 728. The cruiser carries a Kamov Ka-27 (Helix) helicopter or a derivative thereof.
Russia testing 6-Mach Zircon hypersonic missile for 5G subs - reports
First trials of a sea-based Zircon hypersonic cruise missile have begun, a top defense industry source told RIA Novosti. The secretive missile is said to be capable of flying five to six times the speed of sound. It is launched from a 5G submarine.“Zircon hypersonic missiles are already there, and testing from a ground-based launching site has begun,” a senior defense industry source told RIA Novosti on Thursday. The new, highly secretive missile would be able to fly five to six times faster than the speed of sound, the source added.
Zircon missiles would be mounted on the newest fifth-generation nuclear-powered Husky-class submarines.Features of the new hypersonic missile are not found in public sources. Earlier in February, it was revealed that the Russian Navy’s nuclear-powered guided-missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy (Peter the Great) would also be armed with hypersonic cruise missiles by 2022.A military source told TASS the cruiser will be refitted with the brand new multirole 3S-14 vertical launch systems, which house three types of anti-ship missiles, including Zircon, Onyx and Kalibr.Zircon will probably replace P-800 Onyx and Kalibr NK missiles. Both have supersonic anti-ship capabilities, while Kalibr can cover long-range distances of up to 4,000 kilometers and carry a 500kg warhead. The combat-proven cruise missile was seen in action last year, when it was deployed against Islamic State’s (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) defenses in Syria.Russia is also actively developing other hypersonic systems, such as BrahMos, a short-range ramjet missile based on the P-800 Onyx.
A joint Russian-Indian project, BrahMos is a portmanteau formed from the names of two rivers, the Brahmaputra and the Moskva. Traveling at speeds of Mach 2.8 to 3, it’s widely believed to be the world's fastest anti-ship cruise missile in operation. Hypersonic weapons are missiles and aircraft capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5 and more – or five times the speed of sound. They are extremely difficult to intercept due to their overwhelming speed and maneuvering capabilities. Hypersonic technologies in general, used in weapons systems and prospective aircraft, were seen by experts as a game changer in future warfare.
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/335993-russia-tests-hypersonic-missiles/
Fifteen ships and vessels are to be laid down in 2016 for the Russian Navy
Fifteen ships and vessels are to be laid down this year, Deputy Navy
Commander-in-Chief Alexander Fedotenkov told journalists on Thursday.
"They include two more Project 22800 guided missile craft,
Project 20380 corvettes, Project 22160 patrol ships and a drastically
advanced Project 23550 ice patrol ship triple-hatted as tug, icebreaker
and patrol vessel," he said without specifying the shipyards
earmarked to lay down the ships. The
Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet operates four Project 20380 corvettes
- the Steregushchy, Soobrazitelny, Boijy and Stoiky. The Project 20380
Retivy and Strogy and Project 20385 Gremyashchy and Provorny corvettes
are being built by the Northern Wharf Shipyard. The Amur Shipyard is
building three more Project 20380 corvettes.
Project 20385 has been criticized as being too expensive and redundant in its armament. Another reason for Russia resuming Project 20380 corvettes construction may be European sanctions following the crisis in Ukraine: The improved design is fitted with MTU engines (from Germany) instead of the Russian DDA12000 diesel units in the original vessels. The recent sanctions mean Russia can not take delivery of the German made engines anymore. Only two Gremyashchy-class corvette (of Project 20385) have been laid so far: The first one, Gremyashchy, in February 2012 and the second one, Provornyy, in July 2013.
The Gremyashchy-class corvettes differ from their predecessors of the Steregushchy-class by greater dimensions and displacement. They have a steel hull and composite superstructure, with a bulbous bow and nine watertight subdivisions. Compared with the Soobrazitelny, Boiky, Sovershenny and Stoiky ships, which are fitted with Redut air defense VLS system of 12 launchers on the bow, these new ships are equipped with a UKSK VLS system comprising 8 launchers for SS-N-27 or SS-N-26 cruise missiles instead.
Project 20385 has been criticized as being too expensive and redundant in its armament. Another reason for Russia resuming Project 20380 corvettes construction may be European sanctions following the crisis in Ukraine: The improved design is fitted with MTU engines (from Germany) instead of the Russian DDA12000 diesel units in the original vessels. The recent sanctions mean Russia can not take delivery of the German made engines anymore. Only two Gremyashchy-class corvette (of Project 20385) have been laid so far: The first one, Gremyashchy, in February 2012 and the second one, Provornyy, in July 2013.
The Gremyashchy-class corvettes differ from their predecessors of the Steregushchy-class by greater dimensions and displacement. They have a steel hull and composite superstructure, with a bulbous bow and nine watertight subdivisions. Compared with the Soobrazitelny, Boiky, Sovershenny and Stoiky ships, which are fitted with Redut air defense VLS system of 12 launchers on the bow, these new ships are equipped with a UKSK VLS system comprising 8 launchers for SS-N-27 or SS-N-26 cruise missiles instead.
The
Russian Navy will get a Project 23550 ice patrol ship capable of simultaneously
serve as an icebreaker, a tug boat and a patrol ship said Russian ts Navy
Commander Viktor Chirkov in April 2015. "The new generation vessel
will have the capacity of a tug, an icebreaker and a patrol boat at the
same time. This flexibility will enable the vessel to carry out a wide
range of tasks in the Arctic zone. This year, we will finalize the design"-
said Chirkov at the time.
Source: http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2016/january
Over 50 warships to come into service with Russian Navy by 2018
According to Russian Navy Commander-in-chief Vladimir Korolyov, it will make it possible to reinforce groups practically in all strategic directions. More than 50 new warships will come into service with the Russian Navy by 2018, Russian Navy Commander-in-chief Vladimir Korolyov said on Monday."I would like to stress that in a span of three years from 2013 to 2016 we have put into service 42 warships. In the period from 2016 to 2018, we plan to put into service more than 50 warships. It will make it possible to reinforce groups practically in all strategic directions," he said.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/870712
Bigger and faster: Russia unveils designs to replace marooned Mistrals
A St. Petersburg navy design bureau says it is ready to build a Russian-made alternative to the troubled Mistral carriers, which remain moored in France. The intended new ship dubbed Lavina (‘Avalanche’) promises to be bigger and faster than the Mistrals. The technical specifications of the helicopter carrier were revealed in a presentation given by the Krylov State Research Centre, at the Army-2015 military expo near Moscow. Lavina will have a full load displacement of 24,000 tons, as opposed to 21,300 tons for the French-designed ship. It will also have a maximum speed of 22 knots, compared to 19 knots for the Mistrals, two of which were ordered by the Russian Navy four years ago.
Just like the Mistral, Lavina will house 16 helicopters, about 50 armored vehicles (about 10 fewer than the French amphibious assault vessel) and a potential six smaller boats, as opposed to the Mistrals' four. All figures are likely rough estimates, with numerous variables, and it is unclear how advanced the Lavina blueprints are at the current stage. The two Mistral-class ships, custom-built for Russia for a price of €1.2 billion, have been completed, but their delivery has been suspended by France, following Crimea’s accession into Russia last March, and the outbreak of violence in eastern Ukraine. Domestic shipbuilders are competing to fill the gap.
Earlier this week, Priboy, a 14,000-ton helicopter carrier, also capable of transporting 16 attack helicopters, was announced by Nevsky Design Bureau, another leading St. Petersburg design bureau. It said that plans were afoot to begin construction next year. Last week, the Yantar shipyard also reportedly began construction of a smaller Ivan Gren-class assault vessel, which the Navy said would be ready by 2018. It seems unlikely that all of these projects will be greenlighted simultaneously, but officials have confirmed that an amphibious vessel capable of performing a landing thousands of miles away from its home port is a centerpiece of its naval strategy up to the year 2050.
Meanwhile, according to a senior official who spoke to TASS news agency on Wednesday, Moscow has not ruled receiving its original order from the St. Nazaire shipyard, and negotiations are “ongoing.” If the delivery is not made, as appears increasingly likely, the biggest stumbling block remains the size of the compensation for the canceled order. The latest public pronouncements show that France is offering under €800 million in compensation, while Moscow is holding out for at least €1.1 billion.
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/268504-mistral-replacement-avalance-lavina/
US can't keep pace with Russian submarine deployments - top Navy official
The US Navy is facing better and more numerous Russian submarines capable of taking out aircraft carrier groups. The service can’t ensure full awareness of Russian sub activity, CNN reported, citing American admiral."The submarines that we're seeing are much more stealthy," Adm. Mark Ferguson, commander of US Naval Forces in Europe, told the news channel. "We're seeing [the Russians] have more advanced weapons systems, missile systems that can attack land at long ranges, and we also see their operating proficiency is getting better as they range farther from home waters."Russian deployments of attack and ballistic missile submarines are currently at levels unseen since the Cold War, he said. The US has 53 submarines in service and the number will drop to 41 by the late 2020s due to budget constraints, Ferguson added.
Even with the current numbers, the Pentagon can’t monitor all Russian subs, according to retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander."We cannot maintain 100 percent awareness of Russian sub activity today," he said. "Our attack subs are better, but not by much. Russian subs pose an existential threat to US carrier groups." Ferguson acknowledged that Russia invested years and billions of dollars into upgrading its submarine fleet because it sees NATO as a threat to its security.
"NATO is viewed as an existential threat to Russia, and in the post-Cold War period, the expansion of NATO eastward closer to Russia and our military capability they view as a very visceral threat to Russia," he said. The Russian submarine deployments are “focused on protecting the maritime flanks of Russia” and on “denying NATO the ability to operate” in areas such as the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. For 20 years Russia has been complaining that NATO's eastward expansion poses a military threat. The US and the alliance have steadfastly denied this, attempting to justify the policy as one designed to ensure the security of Eastern European nations and dismissing Russia's concerns as unfounded.
The US claimed the anti-ballistic missile system the US is deploying in Europe protects NATO allies from a possible attack by “rogue nations” such as Iran and North Korea. Moscow maintains it undermines its missile deterrence. This week, the Pentagon argued before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee that the Missile Defense Agency should get the funding it requests “to deny Russia offensive capabilities.” It also listed war-battered Syria as a source of growing ballistic missile threat to the US.
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/339806-us-navy-russian-submarines/
Russia's new Armata tanks undergoing troop tests
An experimental batch of Armata (T-14) tanks is undergoing troop tests - the last stage before they are put into service and serial delivery starts, deputy chief of Russian machine building company Uralvagonzavod Alexey Zharich told the Izvestia daily."Tests of Armata are proceeding according to schedule, there are no problems," Zharich said, adding that serial deliveries "may start at any moment as soon as the client wants them to."Currently the troops have some 20 T-14 tanks, he said.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/869920
Flying tanks: Russia’s robotic Armata system to have own scout drone
The company that unveiled the Russian Armata supertank at last year’s Victory Parade in Moscow plans to turn it into a fully robotized “machine of the future.” What is more, Armata will employ a Russian-built unmanned aerial vehicle to gain a tactical edge. “Unmanned Armata is the machine of the future, we have no doubts about it. Both we and the military are sure,” Oleg Sienko, director of Uralvagonzavod, leading Russia’s tank manufacturer, told RIA Novosti news agency in an interview Monday.It will be not the first time the Russian defense company has tried its hand in the construction of unmanned armored vehicles. Back in 2013 it presented a cutting-edge firefighting truck which can be operated by remote control due to the cameras mounted around it.
The truck can be essential in carrying out operations in highly dangerous environments with a huge risk of explosion, for example, at military bases filled with ammo.“We are moving forward, we already have experience with designing a robotized firefighting vehicle on the basis of the T-72 tank…Generally speaking, even those vehicles shown on Red Square can be turned into unmanned vehicles or robots,” Sienko added, referring to the Armata’s impressive debut at the last year’s Victory Parade.The innovative vehicle, which is the first Russian tank designed entirely in post-Soviet Russia, boasts an unmanned turret fitted with a 125mm smoothbore cannon.Uralvagonzavod (UVZ) now intends to install a drone onto the heavy vehicle Armata-15 as part of the company’s strategy aimed at “moving away from crewed vehicles.”“It is a necessary element at a tactical level. It is very hard to move forward in the column ‘without eyes,’ that’s why the UAV is provided there and we will be actively introducing it,” Sienko said.
It is not yet known which UAV will be used to fit into the vehicle, but it will certainly be one made in Russia, Sienko said, adding that it is for the Russian Defense Ministry to decide which device to choose as it runs the trials.“We will install whichever one [the ministry] tells us to. But there will be one for sure,” he said. Armata is not just a new model of tank, but rather a common platform that can be used for building various military vehicles, such as missile launchers, armored personal carriers and more than 20 other types, Sienko said.
“We have a military vehicle development concept based on the Armata platform. It consists of 28 units of prospective types of weaponry. They must be integrated into the same platform, be it anti-missile defense or heavy armored vehicles,” he said. This transformer-like concept with a common base has other benefits, including easier maintenance. “Then we will have the common repair kit, common spare parts so we can rapidly change any joints and components.”
Last month it was announced that the first batch of 20 Armata tanks were undergoing trials and are expected to be sent to the Russian armed forces in 2016 or 2017. Sienko said that safety remains the main priority in the development of the cutting-edge tank. Although the basic engine power is estimated at 1,500 horsepower, the tank is yet being tested with an engine delivering 1,350 hp. “Upgrading the engine is planned for the future, but we believe that the more you force the engine, the fewer are its resources,” he added. The current engine’s power enables the tank’s operator to drive at speeds of up to 80 km/h, which already exceeds the stated speed, according to Sienko. This puts Armata in line with Russia’s legacy of extremely maneuverable “flying” tanks. The Armata tank is currently armed with a 125mm cannon, which can be upgraded with an even more powerful 152mm cannon. According to the company’s deputy director, Vyacheslav Khalitov, the bigger cannon can “just blow a turret away.”
“The 152mm caliber is pretty effective and doesn’t require special ammo to deal with armor. A 152mm shell’s kinetic energy is high enough to just blow a turret away. So this is a promising direction and we are considering it,” Khalitov said last month. Sienko confirmed that an order for a total of 2,300 tanks had been already placed by the Defense Ministry and approved by President Vladimir Putin. Uralvagonzavod announced its plans to create a remote-controlled tank in 2015 after its success with the Armata-14. China, India and some potential buyers from the Arab have shown interest in buying the tanks.
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/340142-super-tank-armata-robot/
The Kremlin's Tiny Drone Tank Bristles With Weapons
Source: http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a18948/russias-new-ground-combat-drone-uran-9/
Deadlier Than Terminators: WATCH Russia's Unique Robotic Tank in Action
The Russian Defense Ministry has unveiled a unique video highlighting the battlefield abilities of the one-of-a-kind Uran-9 robotic tank, Zvezda TV channel repo1rted.The latest in a long line of military robots made in Russia, the Uran-9 unmanned ground combat vehicle is loaded with a machine gun, a 30mm cannon that fires 350 to 400 rounds per minute, a coaxial 7.62mm machine gun and a battery of supersonic guided missiles. The Uran-9 is remotely controlled, so there’s always a human directing the machine. It was developed to provide reconnaissance and fire support to infantry and counter-terror units.According to the developers, Uran-9 will not be treated as a weapon system but rather deployed with an infantry unit. Fully loaded, the Uran-9 weighs around 10 tons and looks like a small tank.It also boasts a cutting-edge laser warning system, target detection, high-tech identification and tracking equipment.“Russian developers possess all the expertise they need to create modern military robotics that will be in demand on the international market. This is a fast-growing segment of the arms market, so we will develop and implement a long-term marketing strategy for promoting such pieces of hardware, including as part of integrated security projects,” said Boris Simakin who heads the Analysis and Long-Term Planning Department at Russia’s official arms trader Rosoboronexport.
Source: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160327/1037037253/russia-robot-tank.html
Killer airwaves: Russia starts trial of electromagnetic warfare system
Russia’s electronic warfare equipment producer launched tests of a tactical electromagnetic combat complex fully integrated with latest air-defense systems. It guarantees complete neutralization of all enemy electronics.Factory testing is underway for components of the new system, capable of protecting troops and civilian facilities from air and space attacks, a representative of Russia’s leading producer of electronic warfare systems, Radio-Electronic Technologies Concern (KRET), told TASS. The tests are expected to be completed by the end of 2016.Integrated with air defense systems and networks, the new complex “maintains automated real-time intelligence data exchange with the airspace defense task force” to facilitate centralized target distribution, the source said.
Solutions realized in the new complex ensure secure suppression of any existing and perspective airborne electronic equipment, making it impossible for the aircrafts and satellites to proceed with their missions.It uses brand-new algorithms of electronic jamming with expanded combat capabilities and modernized command module design. The complex consists of multiple jamming modules exercising long-range impact on enemy command system with a powerful and complex digital signal.“We’ve created multichannel information transmission system ensuring simultaneous electronic jamming of various systems,”
KRET’s representative said.Jamming modules serve as elements of a hierarchically-organized multilevel system, which “optimally distributes its energy, band and intellectual resource,” KRET’s press service cited the deputy general director, Igor Nasenkov.Besides that, all modules are equipped with means of electronic self-defense, because they “they come as top-priority target for enemy’s primary attack,” Nasenkov said.In November 2015, Nasenkov said that a new upcoming ground-based electronic defense system integrated with air defense system is going to be incorporating antisatellite capabilities.The new jammer would render enemy precision weapons useless by suppressing guidance systems, including those relying on satellite signals.
“The system is meant to jam enemy aviation, carrier-launched, tactical and strategic, and jam the signals of foreign military satellites,” Yury Maevsky, deputy head of KRET, told TASS also last November.Maevsky said elements and modules of the upcoming electronic warfare system are going to be deployed at will on various land-based, airborne and naval carriers.
Source: https://www.rt.com/news/340862-electronic-warfare-system-tests/
Russian electronic warfare equipment surpasses Western analogues
Russian electronic warfare equipment surpasses Western analogues by a number of characteristics, including range, Russian Electronic Warfare Forces commander Maj. Gen. Yury Lastochkin said Friday.Lastochkin said that in general, the main tendencies of development of domestic electronic warfare (EW) equipment and similar equipment by leading foreign states coincide, which predetermines the closeness of their technical and tactical characteristics."Nevertheless, among key advantages of domestic electronic warfare equipment compared to foreign analogues can be named its greater range, which is achieved thanks to the use of more powerful transmitters and more efficient antenna systems," he said. According to the commander, the share of state-of-the-art equipment in electronic warfare troops totals 46%.Lastochkin told journalists that in line with the plans to equip electronic warfare (EW) units in accordance with the state defense order, some 300 main specimens of hardware and more than 1,000 small-size items of equipment have been supplied to the troops.
According to the commander, the share of state-of-the-art equipment in electronic warfare troops totals 46%.Lastochkin told journalists that in line with the plans to equip electronic warfare (EW) units in accordance with the state defense order, some 300 main specimens of hardware and more than 1,000 small-size items of equipment have been supplied to the troops."The activities made it possible to re-equip 45% of electronic warfare military units with modern systems, such as Murmansk-BN, Krasukha, Borisoglebsk-2 etc.," he said."In this way, by the start of 2016, the overall share of modern specimens of equipment totaled 46%," Lastochkin said.Electronic warfare troops at Russian military drillsThe official also pointed out that electronic warfare troops would be involved in various maneuvers of the Russian Armed Forces to complicate the situation during the drills. Lastochkin told journalists that over 200 special tactical drills and command post exercises are scheduled for 2016 with electronic warfare (EW) formations and military units as part of combat training events.He said a special electronic warfare testing site is to be created in Russia by 2018.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/869929
Russia's Deadly S-500 Air-Defense System: Ready for War at 660,000 Feet
The Russian military expects to receive the first examples of the new
Almaz Antey S-500 air and missile defense systems in the near future.
Meanwhile, tests are continuing on the advanced S-350 Vityaz system,
which will eventually replace the existing S-300PS air defense
batteries. “We expect the first samples of the S-500 anti-aircraft missile
system to be delivered soon,” Lt. Gen. Viktor Gumyonny, commander of the
Russian Aerospace Forces’ air defense troops, told Rossiya-24 according to TASS [4].
The new weapon—which will form the upper tier of Russia’s layered
integrated air defense system—is expected to be able to engage targets
at altitudes of about 125 miles—or 660,000 feet. That means that S-500
will be able to engage targets such as incoming ballistic missiles in
space at ranges as great as 400 miles. The first regiment of S-500 will
be deployed to protect Moscow and central Russia.
The S-500 is expected to able to detect and simultaneously attack up
to ten ballistic missile warheads flying at speeds of twenty-three
thousand feet per second. It is also reportedly being designed to use hit-to-kill interceptors [5]—a design with similarities to Lockheed Martin's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.
Like all modern Russian air defense systems, the S-500 is expected to
be highly mobile and will use a network of radars for targeting over
vast distances. The missile system is expected to use the 91N6A(M)
battle management radar, a modified 96L6-TsP acquisition radar, as well
as the new 76T6 multimode engagement and 77T6 ABM engagement radars,
according to Missile Threat—which is run by the George C. Marshall and Claremont Institutes. [5] Meanwhile, the Russian military is already testing the S-350 Vityaz
mid-tier mobile air and missile defense system. The new weapon will
replace the older S-300PS and complement systems like the Buk-M3 [6], S-300VM4, S-400 and S-500.
“Tests of the S-350 Vityaz anti-aircraft missile system are currently
ongoing,” Gumyonny said. “The first launches have been successful and
the system has proved its characteristics and will be used on a large
scale for the replacement of the S-300PS anti-aircraft missile system.”
The S-350 is built around a new advanced active electronically
scanned array (AESA) radar and a new mobile command vehicle. A normal
battery would include command vehicle, two radars and eight launch
vehicles. The S-350 uses the same active radar-guided hit-to-kill
interceptors as the S-400—and can engage targets at ranges of 75 miles
at altitudes of about 100,000ft. It can engage 16 targets simultaneously
while a total of 32 missiles at any one time.
The Russians are expected to network the S-500s with their S-400,
S-300VM4 and S-350 and other weapons as part of an overall integrated
air-defense network. As one U.S. industry official noted, while the
Russian military industrial sector suffered greatly in the aftermath of
the collapse of the Soviet Union, somehow Moscow managed to continue
developing advanced air defense system without much degradation in
capability. Indeed, some of these new weapons—like the S-500—are so
capable that many U.S. defense official worry that even stealth
warplanes like the F-22, F-35 and the B-2 might have problems overcoming
them.
Source: http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/russias-deadly-s-500-air-defense-system-ready-war-660000-16028
Russia’s Aerospace Force expects development of first S-500 missile system prototypes soon
The Russian Aerospace Force expects that the first S-500 antiaircraft missile system prototypes will be developed soon, Aerospace Force Air Defense Chief Viktor Gumyonny said on Friday. "We expect the first prototypes of the S-500 antiaircraft missile system soon," he said in an interview with TV Channel Rossiya-24. The R&D work on the S-500 air defense system is nearing completion while the tests of the S-350 complex are currently underway, he said. "The prototype tests of the antiaircraft missile system S-350 Vityaz of the air defense forces are currently going on. The first launches have been successful and the system has proved its characteristics and will be used on a large scale for the replacement of the antiaircraft missile system S-300PS," Gumyonny said. Aerospace Force Commander-in-Chief Viktor Bondarev earlier said the S-500 system might start arriving for the Russian Armed Forces already in 2016. According to the commander, the advanced S-500 system will be capable of intercepting targets at an altitude of up to 200 km. The first regiment of S-500 antiaircraft missile systems is expected to provide cover for Moscow and central Russia.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/869956
Russia's Newest Cruise Missiles Make Combat Debut in Syria
Russia's latest cruise missile has been used for the first time in the Syria conflict. Introduced in 2013, the Raduga Kh-101 has been spotted on Russian Tu-95MS heavy bombers (pictured above) lobbing salvos of cruise missiles at Islamic State targets. The
Kh-101 is a subsonic, conventionally armed cruise missile that flies at
low level to avoid enemy radar. Compounding the difficulty of detecting
the Kh-101 is that the missile is low-observable—not quite stealthy,
but still designed with radar evasion in mind.
The
missile is large, 24.4 feet long and with a launch weight of 5,060
pounds. A turbofan engine propels the missile at high subsonic speeds,
thought to be around .77 Mach. Armed with an 880 pound conventional warhead,
Kh-101 packs twice as much punch as its predecessor. The missile takes
advantage of Russia's GLONASS satellite guidance system to achieve
accuracy within 30 feet, making it two to three times as accurate as the
previous cruise missile.
The truly astounding feature about the Kh-101 is its intercontinental range. The missile has a claimed range of 6,000 miles, meaning it could be launched from Moscow and hit nearly any part of the United States. Low
observable and capable of flying under many air defense radars, the
Kh-101 is very useful for so-called "day one" surprise attacks,
especially on well-defended targets. A nuclear version of the missile,
the Kh-201, is thought to carry a 250 kiloton warhead. And that's what worries the Pentagon.
The
prospect of a Russian nuclear cruise missile threat—launched from
thousands of miles away—has set the Pentagon on edge. The threat of a
surprise attack on Washington DC, a so-called "decapitation strike" that
would eliminate the civilian and military leadership in one sudden
stroke, is the driver for LENS aerostat network
deployed around the nation's capital. The aerostats, one of which broke
free and crashed last month, sit at an altitude of 10,000 feet and use
radar to scan for incoming cruise missiles.
The
choice of the Kh-101 is an odd one. The Kremlin could have attacked
undefended Islamic State targets equally well with older, obsolete
missiles. Using the latest, most expensive cruise missiles seems like a
waste—unless the real intent of the missile bombardment was to show off
the Bear's newest claws.
Russian Missile Tech Is Getting a Much-Needed Workout in Syria
In the first week of October, Russian
naval vessels in the Caspian Sea launched a salvo of ship-based cruise
missiles at targets in Syria up to 1,000 miles away. Never mind Pentagon
reports that some of the missiles reportedly crashed in Iran along the
way. The strikes marked the first time Russia’s navy has launched a
sea-based, surface-to-surface cruise missile in anger, and the first
real-world test of its Kalibr land attack cruise missile.
In the weeks since, Russia has continued
to push the envelope in Syria in terms of both military technology and
doctrine, launching more cruise missiles and deploying all three of its
heavy bombers in concert for the first time. The conflict has grown into
a fertile testing ground for a Russian military that hasn’t carried out
military operations at this scale in three decades. In its use of sea-launched cruise
missiles in particular, Russia also is putting the West on notice,
analysts say. In Syria, Russia is demonstrating both to itself and to
the rest of the world that the capability gap separating its military
from those of the U.S. and its NATO allies is shrinking.
“Russia is in the midst of a relatively big military
modernization program,” says retired U.S. Army Col. David Johnson, a
senior historian at RAND Corp. “This is is a way to test these things
out in combat conditions.”
Cruise missiles like those Russia is
launching from the Caspian Sea require no small degree of technical
prowess. After a booster rocket launches it a few hundred feet skyward
from a surface ship or submarine, a Kalibr cruise missile tips over
horizontally and fires up a solid fuel turbojet engine that sends it
screaming toward its target at many hundreds of miles per hour.
More unmanned aircraft than conventional
rocket, cruise missiles don’t have to fly in a straight line or along a
preordained trajectory. Using GPS (or Russian-equivalent GLONASS)
navigation, Russia’s latest missiles can weave their way to
predetermined waypoints to avoid obstacles or air defenses. They hug the
topography of the Earth, flying as low as 170 feet above ground level
to stay well below enemy radar. (Preprogrammed geographical data and
onboard sensors help the missile avoid collisions with terrain features
or buildings.)
During its terminal phase, the missile
locates its target through a mix of coordinates and onboard image
recognition, essentially matching an uploaded image of the target to
what the missile sees in front of it. If all goes to plan, the missile’s
1,000-pound payload of high-explosive is then guided straight to the
target for a violent impact.
The above description could just as well describe the
U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile in use by the U.S. and U.K. navies
since the early 1980s. From guidance to targeting to characteristics
like range, size, and speed, Russia’s latest cruise missiles mirror the
capability of their Western counterparts. “We’ve always considered it
the Russian version of a Tomahawk,” says Bryan Clark, a naval expert and
senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
“They’ve had this latent capability that was developed maybe 20 years
after the Tomahawk emerged, but they’ve just never been able to use it.”
In Syria, that’s changed. Though the
presence of Russian bomber aircraft in Syria renders cruise missile
strikes nonessential, Russia is taking the opportunity to pull its
cruise missiles out of the toolbox and put them through their paces.
Along with its new ship-based cruise missiles, Russia has also
reportedly fitted its Tu-95MS heavy bombers with the latest Raduga
Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile, marking the first operational use of
that particular weapon as well.
It’s by no means clear that Russia is
ready to deploy these cruise missile technologies in a more heavily
defended airspace, says Dr. Richard Weitz, a senior fellow at the Hudson
Institute. But there are some interesting nuances associated with
Russia’s cruise missile operations thus far, particularly the fact that
Russia has launched its strikes from small naval vessels, some just
one-tenth the size of the average U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer.
That means the U.S. and other nations now
have to think about the possibility of other nations—not just Russia,
but nations equipped by Russia—outfitting their much smaller naval
fleets with long-range cruise missile capabilities that could threaten
both larger naval vessels and inland targets. In a larger, strategic
sense, it also means the capability gap between Russia’s navy and its
Western counterparts is shrinking.
“I don’t see anything alarming from the
fact that they’ve done this—I’d be surprised if they hadn’t done it,
quite frankly,” RAND’s Johnson says. “The big message to the U.S. and
NATO is that the period where we were completely dominant following the
Cold War is coming to a close. The things we would have to confront in
NATO just became very visible in a combat situation.”
Source: http://fortune.com/2015/12/02/russia-working-out-missiles/
Russia Flight Tests Anti-Satellite Missile
Russia conducted a successful flight test of a developmental
anti-satellite missile on Wednesday that is capable of destroying
satellites in orbit, American defense officials said. The Nudol direct ascent anti-satellite missile was launched from the
Plesetsk test launch facility, located 500 miles north of Moscow, said
officials familiar with the situation. The missile was monitored by U.S. intelligence satellites and the test appeared to be successful.
The launch marks another major milestone for Moscow’s efforts to
develop weapons capable of destroying U.S. navigation, communications,
and intelligence satellites, a key strategic advantage.
No additional details were available, and it could not be learned if
the Nudol missile was fired against a satellite or was test launched in a
suborbital trajectory without hitting a target. It was the second successful test of the Nudol, following a Nov. 18 launch, and shows Russia is advancing its anti-satellite weaponry.
Pentagon spokeswoman Lt. Col. Michelle Baldanza declined to comment. Under Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow is modernizing its
entire strategic arsenal and developing new weapons like
anti-satellite missiles. Air Force Lt. Gen. David J. Buck, commander of the Joint Functional
Component Command for Space, told a House hearing in March that the
Russians are developing space weapons, known as “counter-space
capabilities.”
“Russia views U.S. dependency on space as an exploitable
vulnerability, and they are taking deliberate actions to strengthen
their counter-space capabilities,” Buck told the House Armed Services
Strategic Forces Subcommittee. Gen. John Hyten, the commander of Air Force Space Command, also has
said both Russia and China are building space weapons. “They are
developing capabilities that concern us,” Hyten has said in press reports.
Russia’s Nudol program has been couched in secrecy, but it appears
linked to Moscow’s missile defense systems. State-run press reports in
the past have mentioned the Nudol experimental development project as a
“a new Russian long-range missile defense and space defense intercept
complex.” Former Pentagon official Mark Schneider said senior U.S. military
leaders have been warning about Russian anti-satellite threats for years
and regard it as serious.
“GPS guidance has been widely adopted for many of our weapons because
it was cheap, all weather, and works well in low and medium intensity
conventional conflict,” he said. “The loss of GPS guidance due to
[anti-satellite] attack would take out a substantial part of our
precision weapons delivery capability and essentially all of our
standoff capability.”
Geneva-based Russian military analyst Pavel Podvig speculated whether
Russia may have conducted a simulated intercept in the latest test. How the Nudol program fits within Russia’s military doctrine is difficult to assess, he said. “My take is that it is not necessarily part of a well thought out strategic plan,” Podvig said. Soviet-era and current Russian weapons developments were often developed without a clear idea on how they would be employed.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the [Nudol] system is being developed
just because it can be developed—they will think about its role later,
assuming that it works,” he noted. Podvig said the apparent missile manufacturer, Almaz-Antey, “is
making an argument that an [anti-satellite] system might be useful to
hold U.S. [low-earth orbit] assets at risk.”
“But if it gets to a real conflict scenario it is very difficult to
see how this capability might be militarily useful,” he added. A Defense Intelligence Agency report to Congress in February 2015
warned that, “Russia’s military doctrine emphasizes space defense as a
vital component of its national defense. Russian leaders openly assert
that the Russian armed forces have anti-satellite weapons and conduct
anti-satellite research.”
Schneider said the threat to U.S. satellites is compounded by a lack
of kinetic U.S. counter-space capabilities that could hold Russian
Glonass satellites at risk. China also is developing anti-satellite missiles and in 2007
conducted a test of a missile that destroyed a weather satellite,
resulting in tens of thousands of pieces of dangerous orbiting debris. The blog Planet4589.org, which monitors space launches, lists three
earlier Nudol tests, including an April 22, 2015, test that failed. The
two other tests were the successful launch on Nov. 18 and an Aug. 12,
2014 launch.
The blog identified the Russian designation for the Nudol missile as “14Ts033.” Coincidentally, the Nudol test took place a day before the Air Force
Space Command concluded a major annual war game involving a notional
Russian adversary armed with both direct ascent anti-satellite missiles
and orbiting anti-satellite robots, command officials told reporters. Air Force Col. Mike Angle, Space Command’s chief of training,
weapons, and tactics, said the exercise involved European allies and
U.S. forces facing off against a “peer competitor” in 2026 that appeared
to be Russia. The annual exercise is called Schriever Wargame 2016 and was held this year at Maxwell Air Force Base, Montgomery, Ala.
The exercise included simulated activities by missiles, cyber
attacks, and orbiting satellite-killing robots. Scenarios also included
cyber attacks against GPS satellites that provided false data to
military GPS receivers that are widely used for navigating
precision-guided weapons. “We’ve got to, and we feel we need to, prepare for a crisis or conflict that might extend in the space domain,” Angle said. Jason Altchek, a Space Command official who directed the war game,
would not say if the notional adversary was Russia. “I can tell you it
was a global scenario that focused on the European Command,” he said,
noting that the scenarios were split evenly among space and cyber crisis
and conflict simulations and responses.
Pressed on whether Russia was the adversary, Altchek said such
details remain classified. “But I can tell you that the Schriever
Wargame has gone from looking at a near-peer competitor, to a peer
competitor,” he said. The seven allied nations that took part in the war games were not
immediately identified by the Air Force. However, Angle said one lesson
was that “were not all on the same sheet of music” in dealing with space
and cyber threats. Past Air Force exercises had been limited to mainly launching and
controlling satellites in a relatively peaceful space domain. “We had
never trained to perform in the face of a thinking adversary,” Angle
said.
In recent years and including the recent war game, the military has
begun training to deal with space threats such as “what happens when you
have a direct ascent [missile] launched against a satellite,” Angle
said. Missiles are easier to identify than unidentified, small maneuvering
satellites that might either be a killer anti-satellite robot or a
benign maintenance satellite.
The goal of the exercise was to simulate coalition warfare that extends into space and cyber space. The scenarios took place in the European Command area and included “a
full spectrum of threats across diverse operating environments to
challenge civilian and military leaders, planners and space system
operators, as well as the capabilities they employ.” About 200 military personnel and civilians from 27 commands and agencies took part.
Source: http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-flight-tests-anti-satellite-missile/
Blast from the Past: Soviet-Era Tu-160M2 Is More Lethal Than Ever
Russia’s upgraded Tupolev Tu-160M2 Blackjack supersonic bomber is expected to make its first flight in 2019. Moscow currently has sixteen of the original version of the Mach
2.0-capable bomber, which are the last surviving examples of the
thirty-five aircraft built by the Soviet Union before its demise. Moscow
hopes to build fifty new Tu-160M2 aircraft to upgrade its aging
strategic bomber force.
“I believe that in 2019 this plane, upgraded and manufactured, will
make its maiden flight,” Col. Gen. Viktor Bondarev, commander of the
Russian Aerospace Forces told the Moscow-based TASS News Agency on March 2. [4]
Russia made the decision to extend the development of the Tupolev
PAK-DA in favor of the Tu-160M2 in 2015. Serial production of the new
Blackjack variant is expected to start in 2023. According to Russia’s
deputy defense minister Yuri Borisov—as cited by TASS—the Tu-160M2 has
been fundamentally upgraded with completely new mission systems and
other improvements over the existing M variant. “This will be
essentially a new airplane, not a Tu-160 but a Tu-160M2,” Borisov told RIA Novosti last year [5].
Details on the exact nature of the Tu-160M2 upgrades are scarce.
Presumably, Tupolev has made long-overdue adjustments to the airframe
that were supposed to have been implemented during the Blackjack’s
original production run. However, those tweaks are likely to be fairly
minor. The major upgrades are almost certainly going to be focused on
the bomber’s avionics suite.
Russia’s Radio-Electronic Technologies Concern (KRET) is working on
developing the new avionics suite for the Tu-160M2. “Today we can say
with confidence that the new aircraft will be constructed using the
elements of integrated modular avionics (IMA),” the company told
Russia’s state-owned RIA Novosti. [6]
“In the project to modernize the Tu-160, KRET will be creating new
on-board systems, controls, a gimbal-less inertial navigation system,
electronic warfare complex, fuel use monitoring systems, as well as
weapons control systems.”
Some of the new avionics could find their way onto the PAK-DA, which
is being developed in parallel to the Tu-160M2. “The resumption of
production of the Tu-160 will mobilize all research and manufacturing
facilities of concern in this area and create an ideology for a
fundamentally new approach to be implemented in the framework of the
project of creation PAK-DA,” KRET told the Russian outlet.
While much of the aircraft will be new, the Tu-160 will nonetheless
retain its original nuclear deterrence mission. Unlike the stealthy
Northrop Grumman B-2 or future B-21, the Russian bomber primarily relies
on a combination of blistering speed and nuclear-tipped cruise missiles [7] to deliver its doomsday payload. Indeed, it’s probable—given Russia’s nuclear doctrine—that even the future PAK-DA stealth bomber [8] will rely primarily on long-range nuclear-tipped cruise missiles for the nuclear deterrence role.
Source: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/blast-the-past-soviet-era-tu-160m2-more-lethal-ever-15405
Russia’s Strategic Bomber PAK DA May Take Off Earlier Than Expected
Work on the PAK DA strategic bomber is coming along at a good pace, according to the Chief of the Russian Air and Space Forces, Viktor Bondarev. The prototype PAK DA may hit the skies before 2021, the chief added. “Work on the PAK DA is coming along and the pace is suiting us. The challenge remains to raise the prototype into air by 2021, but if all continues at the current pace, it will take off even earlier,” Bondarev said.
A Tu-22M3 supersonic strategic bomber and missile carrier taking part in the dress rehearsal of the Victory Parade in Red Square in Moscow © Sputnik/ Iliya Pitalev Russia to Introduce Six Long-Range Tu-22M3 Backfire Bombers by 2016 Russia’s prospective complex of distant aviation (PAK DA) is a proposed next-generation strategic bomber design. The project is currently being developed by the Tupolev Design Bureau. The PAK DA project was launched in 2009. The military intended to receive a single type of long-range bomber to replace the current Tu-160, Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3. The PAK DA will be a unique project in the history of Russian aviation since it will be a "flying wing" aircraft, a design never used before by Russian engineers. It will fly at subsonic speeds and the large wingspan and design features will provide the jet with reduced visibility to radar.
Earlier, the Long-Range Aviation Commander Lieutenant-General Anatoly Zhiharev talking about PAK DA said that, “This is a fundamentally new plane with a new sighting and navigation system. This plane will be equipped with the latest communication systems and electronic warfare, and will have little visibility to radar.” Representative of the concern “Radio-electronic technology” Vladimir Mikheyev said that the new modification of the strategic missile is based on the principle of integrated modular avionics, allowing components to replace the on-board electronics and restore each other.
The bomber will be able to set a course without the help of satellite signals. This will be possible thanks to the inertial navigation system, which will determine the course and speed of the aircraft due to the high-precision data acquisition devices — laser gyroscopes and quartz accelerometers.
Russia to set up 3 divisions to counteract NATO
Russia will set up two new divisions in its Western Military District and one division in its Southern Military District to counteract NATO buildup near its borders, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Wednesday. "The Defense Ministry is taking a number of measures to counteract the buildup of NATO forces in the immediate vicinity of Russian borders. Two new divisions will be set up in the Western Military District and one division in the Southern Military District until the end of the year," Shoigu said at a conference call.Work is already under way to create necessary infrastructure at the places of the new divisions’ deployment, the defense minister said.
"I have given instructions to use the most advanced construction solutions to build the facilities. Specifically, block-modular structures will be used. The flow-line production technology and the delivery of modules allows erecting buildings within three or four weeks at the longest," the defense minister said.If necessary, the structures can be promptly disassembled and moved to another place. The entire utility supply system, including boiler houses, is assembled in the same prompt manner, Shoigu said.
The Russian defense minister announced the formation of three new divisions in the western direction back in January. Later it was reported that a new motor rifle unit would be set up near Rostov-on-Don and two more such formations in the Smolensk and Voronezh Regions.Each of the new divisions was reported to have 10,000 personnel. Last autumn Shoigu said that since the beginning of 2015 about 30 units and forces had been created in the Western Military District. And at the end of November he declared that fifteen units had been created in the Southern Military District and the establishment of two more units was in the final phase.According to earlier reports, the Western Military District had been reinforced with a newly-formed 1st tank army, headquartered near Moscow.
A senior source in the General Staff told TASS the 20th general purpose army in the district had to be created from scratch, as most of its original forces had been handed over to the 1st tank army. The 20th army is to be stationed in five regions in the west of Russia. Its headquarters are Voronezh.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/873755
World's first air-droppable missile system being developed for Russian Airborne Forces
The world's first air-droppable air defense missile system is being created for the Russian Airborne Forces on the basis of the BMD-4M combat vehicle, a source in the Russian Defense Ministry told TASS on Wednesday."The work is underway on the on the creation of an air-droppable anti-aircraft missile defense system based on the BMD-4M airborne combat vehicle. The experimental design work is codenamed Ptitselov (Fowler)," the source said.According to him, the system will be parachuted.The Russian Airborne Forces currently have in service various modifications of the Strela-10 air defense missile system the basic model of which had been made operational in 1976.The track-mounted Sadovnitsa BMD-4M combat vehicle is a version of the BMD-4 vehicle with a new body, engine, chassis and other units. It is equipped with the Bakhcha-U combat unit, which comprises two guns - one of 100-mm caliber and another - of 30-mm caliber, and a machine gun. Previously, a Russian Defense Ministry source told TASS that the BMD-4M vehicle, along with the BTR-MDM (Rakushka) armored personnel carrier entered service. According to other previous reports, under the existing contract the Russian Defense Ministry should receive within three years up to 250 of these airborne combat vehicles and armored personnel carriers.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/873741
Russian army got 1,200 new and modernized planes, helicopters over past 3 years
Russia’s Defense Ministry has received since 2013 as many as 550 new and 700 modernized helicopters and airplanes, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov said on Friday."Undoubtedly, the domestic aviation industry has achieved strong performance at present, and the involvement of the Russian Defense Ministry has played a significant role in this. Over the past three years, in 2013-2015, we have received from you 250 new planes, 300 helicopters, 700 aircraft that underwent serious modernization with repairs," Borisov said at a congress of Russia’s aircraft manufacturers underway in the town of Zhukovsky outside Moscow.According to Borisov, the Russian aviation industry has been able to achieve good results both in the industrial and scientific spheres.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/870030
Defense official: Russian Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 warplanes performed excellently in Syria
Russia’s Sukhoi Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 fighters have excellently performed during the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operation in Syria, Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov is quoted as saying by the ministry’s press service on Friday. "The entirely new Su-30, Su-34, Su-35 aircraft models have performed excellently, by their flight characteristics they are not inferior, but in many ways superior to their foreign analogues", said Borisov, who attended the 3rd Russian Aircraft Manufacturers Congress that is underway in the town of Zhukovsky outside Moscow.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/870015
Russia to develop new strategic extra heavy airlift aircraft
The Russian aviation industry will deal with development of a new strategic airlift aircraft for the Armed Forces and the civilian market, Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov said on Friday. "We will have to seriously work on a promising aircraft system; I mean an extra heavy airlift aircraft," the deputy minister said. "We will have to think how to develop an aircraft enjoying demand in the interests of the defense ministry in the first instance, and the civilian market as well," the official added. Antonov An-124 Ruslan is currently the heaviest strategic airlift aircraft in service with the Russian military transport aviation.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/870020
Russia develops new-generation communications headset for armed forces
When a soldier speaks or receives orders, the sound is transmitted through the bones of his skull, picturesquely said, via the temples of his head, rather than his ears and traditional microphones. A new-generation communications headset to be used as part of the soldier outfit has been developed by the United Instrument Corporation (UIC, a subsidiary of Rostec). It relies on transmitting sound via the skull, rather than the ears and traditional microphones, a UIC employee told TASS on Thursday.
"The headset builds on a latest technology - the transmission of sound through ‘bone earphones’. When a soldier speaks or receives orders, the sound is transmitted through the bones of his skull, picturesquely said, via the temples of his head, rather than his ears and traditional microphones. Sound vibrations are detected by the hardware. Thus, the soldier can simultaneously receive orders by radio and hear what is happening on the battlefield," the source said.
According to him, the headset embodies Russian technologies and software only. "What matters is that the headset is donned and doffed easily without modifications to the helmet unlike its predecessors requiring modifications like that. The headset allows quality signal reception and transmission without unwanted sounds," the industrialist said. He also said the corporation had developed an active hearing protection system. "It is in the form of earphones that automatically reduce the volume of loud sounds (gunshots, blasts, etc.) while enabling its wearer to hear almost perfectly what is happening on the battlefield," he added. Defense contractor Luch in the Tver Region is the manufacturer of these systems that have been unveiled at the SPETS-ekipirovka show under way in Moscow today.
Source: http://tass.ru/en/defense/871894
Russia: Turning Unpredictability into a Strategic Virtue
“Without international revolution, neither the Soviet Union nor any
other [socialist] country can triumph... We have to increase the number
of our friends,” Vyacheslav Molotov, the Soviet premier and wartime
Minister of Foreign Affairs, once said. Such wisdom from the olden days
of the Cold War should be held in high regard in todays’ Russia, given
the increased official respect for Soviet legacy. But the Kremlin does
not seem to follow cold-war blueprints.
It is hard to discern any respect for long-lasting partnerships, let
alone “friendships,” in Russia’s behavior. Russia does not foster
predictability in its relationships with neighbors. On the contrary,
Kremlin policymakers clearly prefer ambiguity and unpredictability.
“[Russia is] even taking pride in a decision-making process as
inscrutable and unpredictable as possible. The ability to make strategic
decisions quickly and to implement them militarily and politically with
great speed and agility sets Russia apart from the tsarist Empire or
the USSR,” write the authors of an assessment report [4] of Finland’s possible NATO membership.
A mere discussion of NATO membership for Finland is a massive change
in the dynamic between the two nations. Regardless of any immediate
politics, Finland is important to Russia for reasons of history and
geography. Russia and Finland share a 1340 kilometer-long border (833
miles). The Grand Principality of Finland was part of the Russian Empire
between 1809 and 1917. Immediately after the Russian revolution, Lenin
let go of Finland, but Soviet Russia played a role in the Finnish civil
war of 1918, in an attempt to influence Finland’s “Reds.” The two
countries both participated in the Winter War of 1939-40 that began
with an invasion by the USSR and witnessed hostilities during the
remaining part of World War II, in which Finland fought on the side of
Germany. While tense during the interwar period, Soviet-Finnish
relations became calm and mutually beneficial after the war. In the
postwar period, Finland maintained a carefully balanced policy of
compromises with Moscow and openness to the West, complete with a
non-alignment stance vis-à-vis any military blocs.
Finland did not become a member of the European Union until 1995 and
is, of course, not a member of NATO. This legacy is under severe strain
now. NATO membership is not something the Finnish society seems to be
comfortable with (fewer than one-fourth of those polled support it), but
it is being seriously debated and attitudes may change. If Russia ever
had a quiet but tough neighbor who would always be keen on building a
long-term, rule-based relationship, it is Finland. In international
relations, this is better than friendship; after all, who knows what
friendship is in international relations? Losing the trust of a neighbor
like this would be a major risk for Russia.
But this prospect does not seem to bother Moscow policymakers. Russia
is busy projecting agility and unpredictability. These virtues have
been apparently chosen because they add weight to Russian military
resources that, despite recent military reforms, remain stretched.
Russian warplanes are buzzing U.S. Navy ships and American spy planes to
send a message that Russia is no longer afraid to play dangerously.
If one adds a strong degree of unpredictability, the projection of
force becomes quite formidable. It is strategically important for the
Kremlin to keep everyone guessing whether Russia will strike again and,
if yes, where exactly. If this kind of projection is meant to compensate
for military disparities between Russia and NATO, it probably serves
its purpose. It also fits a broader trend as seen by Michael Kofman and
Andrey Sushentsov in their recent report [5] for
the Valdai Discussion Club. “Today we see a clear trend away from
strict rules of warfare or the existence of any tangible separation
between war and peace,” write Kofman and Sushentsov. “There is a strong
convergence between the U.S., Russia and China in the tendency to engage
in indirect warfare and confrontation using the political, economic and
information instruments of national power.”
Russian policymakers turned unpredictability into a strategic virtue
because they became disillusioned with building rule-based, long-term
relationships. Such relationships never turned out in their favor or
(more likely) Moscow was simply not patient enough. The Russian ruling
class started to present almost any unfavorable changes (including the
ruble devaluation) as hostile acts directed at Moscow by the West.
President Putin, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, and their supporters
found it politically useful to accentuate anti-West rhetoric [6] to garner public support, especially as the economic growth that heralded Mr. Putin’s early years in power faded.
Moscow should not be surprised to find that it has created a lot of
anxiety among its neighbors. If Russia wants to be seen as strategically
unpredictable and politically agile, everyone around it, including
Finland and Sweden, should be excused for seeking to increase their
sense of security.
Source: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russia-turning-unpredictability-strategic-virtue-16371
The Russian Air Force Is Back: Stealth, Su-35s and Syria
Derivatives of the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker
will continue to serve as the backbone of Russia’s tactical fighter
force for the foreseeable future. Other aircraft such as Sukhoi’s new PAK-FA fifth-generation stealth fighter
will play a niche role—serving to sustain technology development
efforts and Russia’s industrial base. But modernization is proceeding
slowly due to the lack of adequate funds. Nonetheless, the Russian Air
Force has recovered from its post-Soviet low in the 1990s. For the Russian Air Force, the Su-30SM is the most important Flanker
variant. The flexible, multi role two-person fighter can perform a
variety of roles ranging from interdiction to air superiority to
maritime strike. Moreover, the jet’s sophisticated avionics, range and a
diverse payload offers the Russian Air Force immense
capability—especially during complex air operations where the second
crewman is a boon. “The Su-30SM is like their version of the F-15E,”
Michael Kofman, a research scientist specializing in Russian military
affairs at CNA Corporation told The National Interest.
The single-seat Su-35S—which in some ways is more advanced than the Su-30SM—will focus much more on the air superiority role, Kofman said. The Su-35S likely represents the ultimate incarnation
of the venerable Flanker airframe design. The jet has been upgraded
with a powerful Irbis-E passive electronically scanned radar (PESA), new
electro-optical/ infra-red scanners, data-links, a host of other
upgrades and a vast arsenal of weapons. The Su-35 also features a
lighter airframe combined a pair of upgraded AL-41F1S engines with
three-dimensional thrust vectoring—which affords it excellent
aerodynamic performance. “Nothing can touch the F-22. It’s not stealth, but the Flanker is an exceptional airframe.” Kofman said.
The technology for the Su-35S is also being used to effectively prototype systems for the next-generation PAK-FA fifth-generation stealth fighter.
The problem for the Russians stems from the lost decade of the 1990s
when funding for research and development ground to a halt in the
aftermath of the Soviet collapse. Engines are always the most difficult
and time consuming part of developing a new aircraft and Russia got off
to a late start in developing a suitable motor for the new jet.
Ultimately, though, the Russians will probably succeed. “They have the
technology and the engineering skills,” Kofman said.
While Sukhoi has more or less dominated the Russian fighter industry since the end of the Cold War, RSK-MIG is still developing derivatives of the MiG-29 Fulcrum.
The latest iteration of the Fulcrum is the MiG-35, which offers similar
features as the larger advanced Flanker derivatives. The Russian Air
Force is buying about 30 of the new variant—mostly to keep the
production line alive in the hopes of securing exports, Kofman said. The
Russian Navy, too, is buying a handful of MiG-29K models to replace its
Su-33 Flankers.
But while the Russian Air Force is receiving highly-capable new
aircraft like the Su-30SM, Su-35S and Su-34, it is not receiving huge
numbers of those new aircraft at once. The Russians are taking delivery
of tens of these new aircraft over a number of years to replace the
hundreds of Soviet-era jets that are currently in service. Moreover, the
Russian Air Force in encumbered by having to accept aircraft like the
Su-30M2 and MiG-35 purely for the sake of keeping the aircraft
manufacturers up and running. Thus, Russia is running a parallel program
to upgrades its older Su-27s and MiG-29s to modern standards. Once
example is the Su-27SM3—which brings the original Flanker air
superiority fighter to a level almost on par with the latest Su-30SMs
and Su-35S. Meanwhile, the MiG-29 fleet continues to round out the
low-end of the Russia’s tactical aviation fleet with only modest
upgrades.
Another issue is that while the Russian Air Force is receiving new
aircraft with good radars (most of the new jets have a PESA but active
electronically scanned array (AESA) are in the pipeline onboard the
MiG-35, for example) and excellent electronic warfare suites, the
Russian Air Force still lacks good electro-optical/infrared targeting
pods comparable to the U.S. Air Force’s Sniper or U.S. Navy ATFLIR pod.
Moreover, precision guided weapons comparable to the Joint Direct Attack
Munition are still comparatively rare in the Russian arsenal as the
Syrian experience has demonstrated. But the Russians are aware of these
deficiencies and are working on correcting the problem. Indeed, new
targeting pods are nearing production.
Effectively, the current Russian Air Force leveraged late Soviet-era
investments in advanced technology to field capabilities that had
previously been reserved for Western air forces—such precision guided
munitions and long-range strike. Moreover, the Syrian operation showed
that the Russian forces have reached a level of proficiency where they
can generate sustain sorties from an expeditionary base far from home.
Indeed, the Russian Air Force will likely continue to incorporate
lessons learned from Syria and continue to improve as time goes on.
Thus, while not as large as its Soviet predecessor, the current Russian
Air Force is in some ways more capable—its crews are better trained and
it has much improved technology at its disposal. The question is really
how quickly can Moscow afford to modernize given the state of the Russian economy.
Russia and Turkey Escalate: Russia’s Threat to NATO Goes Beyond Eastern Europe
Key Takeaway: Russia is waging a multi-front campaign against Turkey in order to weaken NATO in line with its strategic objectives. The
use of a high-end Soviet-era MANPADS against a Turkish helicopter in
southeastern Turkey on May 13, 2016 could indicate that Russia is
providing meaningful military support to the Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK) insurgency.
The incident, if indeed a Russian escalation, is yet another Russian
infringement of a sovereign NATO partner. Russia targeted the same
pressure point by overflying Turkey with combat aircraft in November
2015, leading Turkish President Recep Erdogan to authorize the shoot
down of a Russian plane. The U.S. rushed to de-escalate rather than
backing Turkey in November, a signal that Erdogan does not have
unequivocal NATO support. The provision of military support to the PKK
thus offers Russia a surgical option to escalate against Turkey without
provoking a response from the U.S. and NATO, especially because U.S.
strategy against ISIS relies upon the Syrian Kurdish YPG, which has
strong links to the PKK. It is a dangerous possibility that Russia will
cultivate its relationship with the PKK in ways that undermine the U.S.
and Turkey, even if the recent MANPADS event does not represent this
inflection.
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) crossed a phase line in its insurgency against Turkey on May 13 by using Russian SA-18 Igla MANPADS to shoot down a Turkish AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter in southeastern Turkey. The Turkish General Chief of Staff confirmed the crash and the death of both pilots on May 13 but initially attributed the incident to a “technical failure.” The PKK claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement posted to its website and uploaded a high-quality video to
YouTube clearly showing the shoot down on May 14. The appearance of
such a sophisticated weapons system in the hands of a U.S. designated
terrorist group within a NATO partner is alarming. The attack is the
first evidence of the use of a MANPADS by the PKK in Turkey, reflecting a
dangerous escalation in the group’s military capabilities and intent to
wage a sustained insurgency. The last documented use of
MANPADS by the PKK reportedly occurred in northern Iraq in 1997,
although several unverified allegations of their use have surfaced in
the intervening years.
Turkey escalated its counter-insurgency
campaign against the PKK in the months prior to the use of the MANPADS.
The Turkish Armed Forces began conducting major clearing operations in
the majority-Kurdish regions of southeastern Turkey in August-September
2015 after the PKK resumed its local insurgency and seized several urban
centers. These operations have expanded over time. Most recently,
Turkey deployed 20,000 soldiers and police officers to
Mardin and Hakkari Provinces in March 2016 as part of a new wave of
operations to expel the PKK from several district capitals. Turkish
Gendarmerie and Special Operations Forces also continue to conduct operations against
the PKK throughout the surrounding countryside. This mounting pressure
has provoked intensifying retaliation from the PKK. The PKK conducted at
least four successful VBIED attacks targeting Turkish security forces
in Istanbul, Diyarbakir, and Mardin Provinces in the past two weeks, an
escalation of its operational tempo from previous months.
It is possible the MANPADS used on May
13 originated in Syria or Iraq. Syrian Arab Army and the Iraqi Army
maintained Igla-class MANPADS in their inventories, and the systems have
been photographed in the possession of both ISIS and opposition groups fighting
in the Syrian Civil War. The Syrian Kurdish People’s Defense Forces
(YPG) could have acquired this weaponry as spoils of war and transferred
the weapon to the PKK given the close operational and ideological links between
the two groups. The MANPADS available in Iraq and Syria are often
relatively old or nonfunctional, however, and it has been rare to see a
system used by the combatants on the ground, let alone successfully.
It is more likely that the PKK acquired
the weapon from an external actor. The careful manner in which the PKK
used and claimed credit for the MANPADS indicate that it was an
intentional escalation of the PKK’s insurgency rather than an unplanned
use of an available system. The PKK’s video was shot at a perfect angle,
in the manner of a training video, and posted in a way that suggests
that the MANPADS usage was intentionally recorded for dissemination. The
shooter also demonstrated precise training – he waits for the
helicopter to finish suppressing fire, turns on the battery, gets
missile lock on the aircraft, and launches the weapon within the
required 90 seconds as his companion counts time. The PKK previously
upgraded its video equipment and capabilities in March 2016, as
indicated by the videos on its YouTube site. The overall increase in
capabilities the PKK has demonstrated since March 2016 indicate that the
group is intentionally escalating its insurgency with the purpose of
reaching a wider audience. The entrance of an external benefactor is one
possible explanation for this phase change.
Russia is a likely candidate to have provided such a game changing capability to the PKK. Russia seeks to
undermine NATO through a global campaign against the alliance and a
multi-pronged effort against Turkey. It already supports the Syrian
Kurdish YPG, which Erdogan views as an extension of the PKK and an
existential threat to the long-term unity of the Turkish state. Russia’s
support to the YPG is not critical for the success of pro-regime
military operations in Syria. Russia is therefore likely supporting the
YPG primarily to provoke Turkey on a strategic level. It is possible
that Russia expanded its support to the YPG to include covert military
support to the PKK. Russia may have chosen to do so in response to
perceived escalations by Turkey in Syria over the past several weeks, or
to deter Turkey from undertaking future escalation. Support to Kurdish
elements is also a direct way to weaken NATO’s southern flank,
independent of the conflict in Syria. The following sections explore the
Russo-Turkish competition and Russia’s global campaign against NATO in
more detail.
Limited Russian media coverage of the
MANPADS incident has emphasized Erdogan’s responsibility for provoking
the situation. Anna Glazova, Deputy Director of the sate-sponsored
Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, highlighted Erdogan’s role in
oppressing the Kurds after the MANPADS use. Glazova even called for an
evaluation of Turkey’s “treatment of its citizens at the international
level” in reference to the UN.[1] This
framing is consistent with Russia’s attempt to isolate Erdogan
diplomatically and cast Turkey as the aggressor. Russian media such as
Sputnik News previously distributed stories claiming that Saudi Arabia
and Turkey have already delivered surface to air missiles to rebels in
Syria, justifying Russian retaliation.
The Russo-Turkish Competition in Syria
Russia has waged a concerted campaign
against Turkey from Syria as part of its wider strategic objective to
weaken NATO. The Russian Armed Forces repeatedly violated Turkish
airspace violations among other provocations since the start of its air
campaign on September 30, 2015. The conflict dramatically escalated on
November 24, 2015 after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet that
had violated its airspace along the Syrian-Turkish Border. Russian
President Vladimir Putin responded to this act of defiance with a
multifaceted campaign of punitive measures. Russia imposed sanctions and
travel bans that sharply limited its economic ties with Turkey. The
Russian Armed Forces deployed an advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile system to
its base at the Bassel al-Assad International Airport in Syria,
contesting the airspace over large parts of southern Turkey. In Syria,
Russia shifted its air operations to target opposition ground lines of
communication (GLOCs) in northern Syria that provided free access to
arms, supplies, and reinforcements from Turkey. These strikes also
targeted frontline positions held by Turkish-backed opposition groups,
facilitating the loss of terrain at the hands of both the YPG and ISIS.
Russia also dispatched military personnel to scout the Qamishli International Airport and Kuweires Airbase in northern Syria in a clear threat of future military deployments along the Syrian-Turkish Border.
Russia expanded its political and military outreach to the Syrian Kurds in late 2015, weeks after the downing of the Russian jet. The Russian Armed Forces began providing support to YPG-led operations against opposition groups in northern Aleppo Province in early December 2015. Russia reportedly also began deploying small numbers of ground forces to support the Kurds in Aleppo Province by February 2016, possibly to serve as forward air controllers for the YPG. These outreach efforts bore fruit in mid-February 2016 when Russia facilitated significant YPG advances against Turkish-backed opposition groups in northern Aleppo Province. The Russian operation was designed to buffer a simultaneous advance by pro-regime forces attempting to encircle and besiege Aleppo City. Meanwhile, the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) – the political body that directs the YPG – also established its first foreign office in Moscow on February 10 with at least tacit support from the Kremlin.
Russia continued to provoke Turkey despite a nationwide ‘cessation of hostilities’
in Syria that began in February 2016 and resulted in a notable decrease
in combat operations on the ground. Russia used the start of UN-backed
negotiations to end the Syrian Civil War as a platform to apply
political pressure on Turkey on the international stage. Russia
repeatedly pressed for the inclusion of the Syrian Kurds in the Geneva Talks while calling for the exclusion of Salafi-Jihadist group Ahrar al-Sham and
other opposition groups backed by Turkey from the political process.
Russia also attempted to target Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam –
another major Salafi-Jihadist group backed by Saudi Arabia – by
submitting an unsuccessful proposal to designate both
organizations as ‘terrorist organizations’ before the UN Security
Council, thereby criminalizing external support to the groups. Britain,
France, and the U.S. blocked the proposal. Russia simultaneously provided continued military support – albeit at a lesser threshold – to pro-regime forces as they carried out numerous attempts to complete the encirclement of the opposition in Aleppo City, which remain Turkey’s primary source of leverage in the Syrian Civil War. These operations include a recent attack against the vulnerable opposition-held Handarat District of Aleppo City on May 12.
Turkey appears be providing increased
support to its allies in Aleppo to counter Russian- and Iranian-backed
regime operations. Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar
al-Sham launched a counter-offensive that recaptured the town of Khan Touman southwest of Aleppo City on February 5. The attack inflicted major casualties on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and
marked a notable setback for the Syrian-Russian-Iranian coalition
fighting on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Russia may have
interpreted this loss as a new escalation by Turkey. Turkey likely
provided military and financial support to Ahrar al-Sham and other
opposition groups that seized Khan Touman, coordinating through the
reconstituted Jaysh al-Fatah Operations Room. Turkey also conducted a cross-border raid using
Special Operations Forces into Northern Aleppo Province on October 7 as
part of efforts to clear ISIS from the Syrian-Turkish Border. These
incidents may have created an incentive for Russia to pursue other
options in order to retaliate against Turkey.
External supporters of the Syrian armed opposition have threatened to deliver MANPADS into Syria as a “Plan B” if the Geneva negotiations to end the Syrian Civil War fail. Saudi Arabia has been the most vocal proponent of MANPAD deliveries, but Turkey is likely also considering the option. Turkey and Saudi Arabia already coordinate to deliver aid to Syrian armed opposition groups, and have discussed how to escalate their involvement in the past. Images from the battlefield reveal that a variety of opposition groups remain in possession of these anti-aircraft systems, although it is unclear how many remain functional. Opposition forces were able to down a regime fighter jet over the town of Kafr Naboudah in northern Hama province in March 12 with alleged MANPADS. Some of the MANPADS displayed by opposition forces are models not carried by the Syrian military, suggesting that the opposition obtained the weapon from external benefactors. A prominent opposition group that operates north of Damascus also uploaded a video of MANPADS training on April 19, stating that it expected to receive shipments soon. It is possible that Saudi Arabia and/or Turkey provided initial shipments of MANPADS in order to gauge Russia’s response.
The timing of the use of a MANPADS in
Turkey is therefore significant in the Syrian context. It occurred three
days before a meeting of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG)
in Vienna to discuss the political process. The ISSG meeting was a
success for Russia. The ISSG members states did not agree to resume the
talks, but neither did they abandon the process. The ISSG instead
reaffirmed the August 1, 2016 target date to “reach agreement on a
framework for a genuine political transition”. This outcome – a
protraction of diplomatic stalemate – is ideal for Russia because it
sustains the diplomatic track despite growing American unease with the
situation on the ground. The ISSG member states also committed to
conducting air bridges and air drops of humanitarian aid if
the UN is not granted access to any designated besieged area by June 1.
This agreement is a concession from Russia, but it does not challenge
Russia’s freedom of action or its priorities in Syria. Instead, it
commits ISSG member states to a course of action that remains on a
humanitarian plane. It is possible that Russia provided
small numbers of MANPADS to the PKK and trained personnel to fire
and record them in order to send a warning to Turkish President
Recep Erdogan and deter Turkey from further action in Syria.
Russia may have intended to divert the attention of Turkey away
from northern Syria by providing the PKK with sufficient
capabilities to escalate their local insurgency and force the
Turkish Armed Forces to deploy additional assets towards the
threat. Forcing Turkey to confront the risk of an escalated PKK
insurgency could encourage Turkey to withdraw its support from possible Saudi plans to escalate in Syria, as intimated on May 17 after the ISSG meeting.
Russian Escalation with Turkey and NATO beyond Syria
Armenia-Azerbaijan
The Kremlin is finely tuning where,
when, and how it escalates against Turkey. The deliberateness of Russian
escalation in southern Turkey contrasts with a more nuanced policy in
other regions. Russia has intensified its military support to the
neighboring state of Armenia amidst rising tensions with Azerbaijan – a
close Turkish ally – in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Russia
signed an agreement with Armenia to establish a regional joint air
defense system on December 23, 2015.[2] Azerbaijan and Armenia
later resumed large-scale military operations along the border of
Nagorno-Karabakh on April 1, breaking an uneasy ceasefire that has
largely held since 1994. On February 18, the Russian government
announced that it had supplied Armenia with a $200 million loan with
payment deferred until 2018.[3] Russia is a major arms supplier to both sides
in the conflict, but its support heavily favors the Armenians. Russian
military forces stationed in Armenia regularly conduct training
exercises, including exercises with the Armenian military. Russia most
recently began joint flight exercises with the Armenian military on May
12 that included more than 200 personnel and over 20 aircraft and
helicopters.[4] The exercises caused concern in neighboring Turkey.
Russia
has meanwhile portrayed Turkey as
an aggressor amidst the hostilities, stating that Turkish support for
Azerbaijan constituted “not appeals for peace but for war.” The
combination of rhetoric incriminating Turkey and simultaneous Russian
military investment is standard Russian methodology for exploiting
sub-state conflict. Russia purposefully took steps to
de-escalate the conflict. . The co-chairs of the Organization for
Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), including Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, met with
the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Vienna on May 16 in order
to discuss the escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh beginning on April 1.
The leaders agreed to increase the strength of the OSCE monitoring
mission along the frontline of Nagorno-Karabakh and pursue further peace
talks in June. Meanwhile, the Armenian government approved a bill for
discussion in parliament that would officially recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence from Azerbaijan on May 5. The Armenian
government rejected[5] further
consideration of the bill on May 16, but they maintain the ability to
reconsider the vote at any time. The Kremlin did not publically support
the bill, signaling its intent to support de-escalation in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia’s decision to deescalate likely represents a
calculation that the costs of increased hostilities in the region are
too high at this time.
The current de-escalation may actually
favor Russia by enabling the Kremlin to choose the timing of future
escalation. Russia is using its involvement in the talks to present
itself as a global peacekeeper and an effective partner for the West,
despite being a primary enabler of the conflict, a pattern that it has
exploited in Ukraine as both a belligerent and a guarantor of the
ceasefire. Russia is meanwhile increasing its capability to act against
Turkish interests through the Nogorno-Karabkh by training with the
Armenian military.
Crimea and Ukraine
Turkey is responding to Russian
aggression by cultivating other partners who are hostile to Moscow, and
particularly, Ukraine. Part of this is defensive. Turkey is attempting
to respond to increasing Russian military capabilities on the Black Sea
that threaten its northern flank. Turkish President Erdogan called for
increase NATO presence in the Black Sea, warning that NATO’s “absence”
had almost turned the Black sea into a “Russian lake” and claimed that
“if we don’t act now, history will not forgive us.” This rhetoric comes
as NATO considers forming a Black Sea Fleet,
comprised of Turkish, Romanian, and Bulgarian vessels and potentially
supplemented by Ukrainian and Georgian ships in order to counter Russian
military presence in the Black Sea.
Turkey and Ukraine conducted joint naval drills on April 6 in the Black Sea. The two countries signed a
military cooperation agreement on May 16 designed to expand military
education and troop training efforts and mutual defense planning. On
May 13Turkish DefenseMinister Ismet Yilmaz, Ukrainian Minister of Defense Stepan Poltorak, and new Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr
Hroisman met in Kyiv on May 13 to discuss plans to enhance security in
the Black Sea region and improve military cooperation. The Azeri
Minister of Defense also announced at
a meeting with his Turkish and Georgian counterparts on May 16 that a
military cooperation agreement between the three countries was being
discussed that would take military cooperation “to a new level.” Turkey,
Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia may be laying the groundwork to
establish a regional military alliance to fill the existing regional
power vacuum and prevent Russian expansion if NATO decides against
creating a Black Sea Fleet at its July 8 - 9 summit in Warsaw. Action to
counter Russia in the Black Sea outside the NATO construct risks
escalation with Russia that the U.S. cannot control. Turkey is also cultivating Ukrainian
support in other ways that are less directly tied to defending the Black
Sea. The Turkish government gave Ukraine five mobile military
hospitals during President Poroshenko’s visit to the Ukrainian Flagship Hetman Sahaidachniy on March 10 as it concluded exercises with the Turkish Navy. Ukraine and Turkey are also in talks to expand economic ties.
Ukraine has an ethnically Turkish
minority population, the Crimean Tatars, that is both a cause and a
pretext for support. The Crimean Tatars, a Turkic people, are a largely
pro-Ukrainian population with an inherent cultural distrust of Moscow
after centuries of war and the 1944 mass deportation of the Crimean Tatars by the Soviet Union. Russia stepped up its repression of
the Crimean Tatars in occupied Crimea in early February in an effort to
consolidate control of the peninsula. Russian authorities in Crimea banned the Mejlis, the representative bodies of the Crimean Tatars, on April 26 after previously labeling them as “extremist” organizations. Turkey immediately condemned the
decision and pledged to support the “just struggle” of the Turkic
Crimean Tatars against Russian oppression. Turkey has historically
prioritized supporting Turkic people outside the Turkish state. Russia
continued to target the Crimean Tatars, including a large-scale detention of roughly 100 Tatars on May 06. The European Union adopted a resolution in support of the Crimean Tatars on 12 May as Russian security forces conducted a series of raids and arrested at least five Tatars including the
Vice Chairman of the National Mejilis. Erdogan later stated that Turkey
refused to recognize the annexation of Crimea and “our main priority in
the conditions of the Ukrainian crisis is to secure the peace, safety,
and well-being of our brothers the Crimean Tatars” on May 15.[6] Turkey’s rhetorical support to Crimean Tatars is incentive for Russia to punish Turkey on other fronts.
Turkey and the Baltics
The PKK use of a
MANPADS against a Turkish helicopter in its own airspace came
simultaneously with a wider set of aggressive Russian signals sent to
NATO. Russian forces in the Baltic region also continue their aggressive
maneuvers against NATO member states. Russia forced British fighters
based in Estonia to scramble to intercept three unresponsive Russian aircraft approaching Baltic airspace on May 13. Russian intelligence collection ship also patrolled Latvia’s exclusive economic zone the same day. These particular signals were also timed as the United States activated in
Romania on May 12 the first land-based facility in its European missile
defense system designed to protect Europe from missile strikes from the
Middle East and began construction of
a second facility in Poland on May 13. Russia has consistently opposed
the missile shield and claimed that it is targeted toward Russia and not
the Middle East. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned
that Russia would take measures to neutralize “emerging threats” to Russia.
Russia is
setting conditions for further offensive action against NATO by
establishing a legal framework to take action anywhere Russian
populations are under threat from “extremists.” The Russian lower house
of parliament, the Duma, passed a series of anti-terrorism laws on May
13 that would expand Russia’s ability to control its population and lay
the groundwork for increased Russian global activity in the name of the
war on terror. The laws would allow the Russian government to stop its
civilians from travelling internationally if they are suspected of
“extremism,” lowers the age of responsibility for acts of terror from 16
to 14, punish Russian citizens who do not inform the government if they
were aware of planned “extremist” activity, and expand Russia’s legal
definition of terrorism to encompass any act that affects Russians
abroad. By expanding its definition of terrorism in this way, Russia
will be able to claim legal grounds for pursuing terrorists that target
Russians anywhere in the world.[7]
In addition, Russia is building up its military forces. Russian
Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu announced that Russia would form three new divisions along its western border with Europe in response to alleged NATO aggression on May 3.
Conclusion
Russia has demonstrated its ability to
undertake precise escalatory and deterrent actions based on a strategy
to achieve intended effects on a global scale. American responses do not
match Russian aggression in either scale or sophistication. The U.S.
and NATO must stop visualizing the individual provocations by Russia in a
vacuum, but rather recognize these converging threats as a global
strategy to weaken NATO. Russia has identified the seam between Turkey
and its fellow NATO members, and is using a series of escalatory steps
to weaken the alliance. The synchronization of Russian escalatory
actions against NATO allies in various theaters from May 13 – 16
indicates a concerted effort to exploit seams in different theaters in
an effort to establish itself as a global hegemon. The willingness of
NATO to defend Turkey and its other partners in the region is once again
in question.
NATO is erroneously parsing Russian
escalations in Northern Europe as different from those in Southern
Europe. Russian aircraft have repeatedly performed dangerous and
provocative maneuvers against U.S. military forces in the Baltic region
as it continues its campaign of military intimidation and hybrid warfare
against the Baltic States. The Russian campaign against Turkey is
linked to this aggression on the northern European front. Russia’s
intervention in Syria is a direct challenge to Turkish interests. Russia
is repeating this method by overflying Turkish airspace. It may have
introduced MANPADs to the PKK, the Kurdish group waging a war against
Turkey. Russia has waged a sophisticated information campaign against
Turkey, portraying Turkey as a regional aggressor to deter decisive NATO
action while Russia targets Turkish strategic priorities in Syria. This
information operation may be contributing to U.S. inaction. Continued
NATO inaction in response to Russian aggression against Turkey risks
sacrificing the ability to shape future Turkish responses.
In any scenario, the potential provision
of MANPADS and other advanced systems to insurgents inside of Turkey
should present a red line for the U.S. and NATO. Hopefully, this line
has not yet been crossed. The sophisticated Russian information campaign
to implicate Turkey as a regional aggressor has nonetheless begun to
take hold, raising concerns that NATO would be unwilling to respond to a
Turkish invocation of Article Five. Russia is incentivized to press its
advantage. The failure to respond to these provocations will only
further motivate an already-emboldened Russia to reshape the current
world order in its own favor. The U.S. and NATO risk losing the ability
to shape Turkey’s response to Russian aggression by failing to act. It
is both likely and dangerous that a unilateral Turkish response will
fragment NATO and jeopardize American strategic interests over the long
term.
Russia Defense Report: Russian Forces in Armenia
The Russian military involvement in assistance of the government of
Syria had led to a sharp deterioration of relations between Russia and
Turkey, which until recently had been seen as if not an ally then at
least a solid partner. While the reasons for Turkish president Erdogan’s
betrayal of trust with Russia are still not fully known, this
unexpected turn of events had instantly elevated the importance of the
Russian military contingent in Armenia, a country which is not only tied
to Russia by a range of collective security treaties but also shares a
long border with Turkey, which is after all a member of NATO, as well as
with Azerbaijan and Georgia, both of which have been building their
ties to NATO in recent years. Which means that Armenia is the
Transcaucasus equivalent of Belarus–a buffer state between the suddenly
hostile NATO and Russia. Any escalation of the Russia-NATO differences
of opinion over the future of Syria would necessarily involve the
Russian forces already stationed there, plus whatever reinforcements
could be sent to the area. The presence of Russian forces in Armenia is
also significant for the reason of the still unresolved
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. Given
Armenia’s geographic importance and its political and military alignment
with Russia through the Collective Security Treat Organization and the
Eurasian Economic Union, one also has to keep in mind that Armenia
represents a tempting “color revolution” target. For that reason,
Russian troops stationed there can rightly consider themselves to be
part of a frontline deployment.
The permanent contingent of Russian forces in that country centers
around the 102nd Military Base near the city of Gyumri, with Russian
troops enjoying basing rights there thanks to a bilateral Russia-Armenia
agreement until 2044. The 102nd Base was established on the basis of
the 127th Motorized Rifle Division that was based in Gyumri. Its
equipment strength includes 74 Main Battle Tanks, nearly 200 BTRs and
BMPs, as well as artillery systems including long-range Smerch MRLs,
which is equivalent to a reduced-strength motorized rifle division of
three motorized rifle regiments (each with one tank company) plus a
separate tank battalion, consistent with the number of 4500 Russian
soldiers stationed at Gyumri. The 102nd is not the only such formation
in existence–the 201st Military Base in Tajikistan that is intended to
help maintain security in Central Asia also as part of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization, has roughly similar organization and
strength.
However, while the 201st only needs to worry about Taliban, Al Qaeda,
and, now also ISIS infiltration from Afghanistan, the 102nd is based in
close proximity to a NATO state which necessitates protection against
air attack. That protection is provided by the 988th Air Defense Missile
Regiment with S-300 and Buk-M systems and a flight of MiG-29SMT
fighters based at the nearby Erebuni airfield which recently also
received 18 Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters. Rounding off the 13 thousand
strong Russian contingent in Armenia are the 4.5 thousand FSB Border
Guards based at Gyumri, Armavir, Artashat, and Megri.
This force serves a number of peacetime functions. It extends Russian
conventional deterrence umbrella over Armenia against any external
attempts to violate Armenia’s sovereignty. It helps integrate Armenia
into the CSTO, with Russian troops serving as military trainers and
advisors in a fashion similar to the role their counterparts played in
Syria. Indeed, Russian and Armenian forces hold frequent joint military
exercises to hone their interoperability. Should the situation
deteriorate, the 102nd’s organization and strength make it suitable to
wage a low intensity counter-insurgency campaign against well organized
“foreign fighters” and, in the event of a major military threat to
Armenia, it is sufficiently powerful to screen Armenia’s borders until
reinforcements could be sent, while bombarding key enemy sites with
Iskander-M missiles. Even though Armenia does not share a border with
Russia, it does have one with Iran, whose close security relationship
with Russia shows no signs of weakening which means that, should the
worst come to worst, Iranian airspace could be used to reinforce
Armenia.
Current Russian national security plans foresee the Russian force
grouping in Armenia to be increased, as part of the overall enhancement
of the role of CSTO in guaranteeing regional security and in response to
increased NATO activity in the region. What happens next is really up
to the West. Should it insist on continuing the course toward
confrontation, Russian forces in Armenia could greatly complicate its
strategic calculations.
Source: https://southfront.org/russia-defense-report-russian-forces-in-armenia/
The 10 points at the beginning of your commentary summarize amazingly well just how worrisome the situation is in the Armenian armed forces, government and society. I would like to emphasize more on points 5, 7, 9 and 10:
ReplyDelete#5: our officials were putting out a lot of misinformation.
During the war I and my likes were refreshing the Facebook page of Artsrun Hovhannisyan, the Defense Ministry spokesperson. Parts of the news he was put were very uplifting, such as the number of azeri tanks destroyed, the capturing of “newer” territories, and of course on how the Armenians completely liberated the northern and northeastern positions and only left the Lele Tepe hill to the azeris in the south.
I started doubting on the accuracy of information when the Armenian side claimed the azeris had 2000 casualties. This number was illogical and there were only 2 options: Either our side was spreading misinformation, or the azeris are idiotic and undisciplined to the point where they just run to us like sheep ready to get slaughtered. Researching about this led me to find objective/neutral sources about the war. Almost all were citing on azeris seizing positions to the north. Since we are used to azeri misinformation, it would have been considered normal for objective sources use both sides of the story. Most sources also limited the number of azeri casualties to around 300-400, more logical than 2000.
HOWEVER, the moment we found out that we’ve lost significant land and have refrained from capturing them was the moment when the Defense Ministry lost its reputation as a truthworthy news source from the front. Many Armenians who formerly trusted in the ministry will cease to do so. This was a damage that will be very hard to fix.
Ռազմիկ Արտաշես, like I said, I was not liking what I was seeing in our military. The four day war simply brought it all to the surface. We needed to have this conversation a long time ago. But, imagine how you and others would have reacted to my comments had I spoke about these things before the war. Also, in a conversation like this there is a very fine line between constructive criticism and treason. All in all, this is a very difficult topic to discuss. But, in a sense, we can thank Aliyev for helping us start this conversation.
DeleteArevordi, I agree. Most of us would've fiercely defended the army, because we were told time and again that it's the strongest and most well-organized force in the South Caucasus. Once in a while we would hear stories of what soldiers did on the frontline and saved lives or outsmarted azeri soldiers. We would hear about the strong defense lines, natural barriers, how for every Armenian casualty our side responds with 10 and the likes. As hard as it is to accept, this short war unmasked this facade. Now, the defense ministry has to do everything to fix this mistake by getting the army in shape and somehow regain our trust, which will be very hard at the moment.
DeleteI agree, that fine line is very fragile, and if we are not careful, we will start sounding like those Armenians who preach doom-and-gloom propaganda.
I also understood that when it comes to warfare and such matters, the common folk are not allowed to analyse the situation. I myself am not an expert in military matters, therefore I leave the stage to the likes of you and Zoravar, and try to learn as much as I can. The rest of the people should do the same. Stick to what you know, not what you think know.
And here is where I stress once more on proper education/engineering. For sure, military-related subjects are to be considered...
Let me tell you something else that is not very well known. As vast majority of the killings and beatings that take place in the Armenian military is related to alcohol use by soldiers. Armenian troops - hormonal 18-20 year olds with serious attitude problems - have access to vodka when they are on duty. They drink, they get dunk, they get into fights with their peers (probably because someone told someone մամադ եսիմինչ) and somebody ends up dead or beaten severely. Or, they drink on guard duty on the front-lines and end up with their heads blown out by Azeri snipers. There is a serious lack of discipline and martial culture in our society. For years I hesitated to speak about this topic because of the likes of Western funded treasonous filth like Vahan Martiroyan. But it has to be talked about (in a constructive way) and eventually fixed - for the most important institution in a nation is its military.
DeletePS: Sadly, your wise suggestion about sticking to what you know and listening to others will not be heard by a vast majority of Armenians who are absolute experts in everything.
#7 the veterans and soldiers: Although watching the first few scenes of war veterans lined up in Stepanakert to go to the front was very emotional and encouraging, it was at the same time, to me, worrying. Yes, they have the fighting spirit. But why the f@&% is every Armenian neglecting something so basic like health??? Aren’t Armenians questioning how fat/obese middle-aged men will only cause problems?? Are Armenians even questioning their own health in general?? What happened to the fitness culture that existed during the Soviet era?! Why the more a soldier gets a promotion and becomes an officer, captain, lieutenant, the bigger his belly becomes?? Why do Armenian soldiers smoke incessantly and smuggle alcohol?? This is not an army, it’s more like a camping trip for teenagers.
ReplyDeleteMany (if not most) of these war veterans are alcoholics and almost all are cigarette addicts. Moreover, most are poorly educated simple folk with absolutely no understanding of professional military matters. These people should not be with our young soldiers on the front lines. They should instead placed in separate units. The defense ministry should create a special battalion for them and utilize them for special tasks.
Delete#9 մամայի բալա:
ReplyDeleteIt’s amazing how this statement is so true. I don’t want to give much examples from my personal life, but I’ve felt this a lot from adult Armenian females, along with their nonsense statements “God bless you and protect you” “May you find health, wealth, success” “what a wonderful boy/man, you’ll grow up to be our pride”. The over-pampering that Armenian boys/men get leads them to be careless, arrogant, spoiled and even downright childish some times. And let me not get started on Diasporan men, who are spineless cowards and have no backbone in general.
An Armenian man's worst enemy can be his mother. The obsessive way with which Armenian mothers raise their sons has caused a severe deficit of real men in Armenian society worldwide. I never really discuss "Diasporan men" because, with some rare exceptions, Diasporan men don't even exist in my opinion.
Delete#10 soldiers being undisciplined and the modern mentality:
ReplyDeleteFor the last 2 thousand years, while we’ve made political mistakes as Arevordi mentioned (more on that later), what eventually saved us from physical extinction was that Armenians had a warrior class and there was an entire understanding of military warfare. Yes, some battles we have lost, but also many we have won or at least left indecisive. The problem in those times was not in the combat effectiveness of the Armenian forces, rather in the political errors made by kings and noblemen. Having lost almost all of that nobility, warrior class, codes etc after 1045/1375 AD, we turned into merchants and peasants. Let’s also keep in mind that Armenian forces were so effective on the battleground that the Byzantines and Persians exploited them for their own wars.
If you read Armenian history from 1500 to the early 1800s, you’ll be surprised to see how far Armenian merchants traveled and were accepted and appreciated… as merchants. This deeply impacted Armenian mentality and turned it into “որտեղ հաց, այնտեղ կաց”. That, I believe is one of the core problems we collectively have as a people. While Arevordi argues that genetics has a role to play in it, I am emphasizing more on the socio-cultural impact that we inherited throughout the last thousand years or so.
Since my comments about genetics and breeding is always causing objections or misunderstandings, I'm going to try another approach. Consider this Russian study -
DeleteMeet Your New Pet, A Domesticated Fox: http://www.fastcompany.com/3037451/pet-week/meet-your-new-pet-a-domesticated-fox
The Russian Fox Study: http://scienceblogs.com/thoughtfulanimal/2010/06/14/monday-pets-the-russian-fox-st/
Domesticated Foxes: Man's New Best Friend? http://www.npr.org/2012/03/18/148758624/domesticated-foxes-mans-new-best-friend
Dmitry Belyaev and Fox Experiments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jFGNQScRNY
The foxes in this study went from being wild animals (let's say alpha males in humans) to tame pets (the typical demasculinize Western male today) in only a few decades. In the course of its domestication, the fox's predatory instincts, the quality of its fur and some of its physical features were also somewhat altered (e.g. wild foxes have pointy ears whereas the domesticated ones have shorter or drooping ears). A domesticated fox today, unlike his/her wild grandfather, looks different and wont be able to survive in the wild.
Breeding is the manipulation of genetics. Mankind has been doing it to dogs, cats, cows, chickens, etc., for thousands of years. And political and environmental circumstances has been doing it to mankind for thousands of years. Breeding is a very real matter among humans. Because the topic is connected with racial traits, it's been considered taboo by the Anglo-American-Jewish civilization since the Second World War. Therefore, most people today either turned off to this topic or simply don't understand the important role genes play in who we are as individuals and as a people.
Simple example: Emotions/temperament is not cultural, it's genetic. Northern European are a cold/calm people. Southern European are a warm/energetic people. Northern Europeans can be a very cruel and warlike. Southern Europeans can be very compassionate and passionate. Moreover, northern Europeans tend to be orderly and disciplined. Southern Europeans tend to be disorderly and eccentric. Also consider strength, intelligence and talent. These are all genetic traits that children are born with.
Genetic traits make up a people's character. Since people make up a society, the traits in question therefore also give the given society its characteristics. Since people make up governments, these traits can also effect governmental efficiency or inefficiency, corruption or lawfulness, etc.
So, its more than just up bringing and culture; it's culture and genetics and breeding.
Throughout history, Eurasian society, Germanics and Slavs in particular, produced a disproportionate amount of alpha males. This may be because Eurasians developed as hunters for tens of thousands of years. Could be also because Eurasians have significant amount of hardy neanderthal mix in them. The natural traits seen within Eurasian alpha males (large bodied, cold, cruel, aggressive, warlike, orderly, disciplined, intelligent) is the secret to Eurasian people's imperial successes around the world. Throughout history Eurasian alpha males essentially picked who they wanted to have children with not the other way around. Eurasian women for their part were attracted to alpha males who they saw as powerful bred winners and protectors.
DeleteNot anymore.
White/European males are being selectively bred in recent times. Some of it is by design (i.e. Western elite/Globalists pushing homosexuality, feminism, interracialism, etc onto western society) and some of it is the natural by-product of the western world's highly developed and progressive civilization (i.e. white/European females today want to copulate look for well groomed, well to do, well educated and well mannered men). Western females are now empowered and they no longer look for the alpha male types. This systematically excludes alpha males from procreating and passing their genes. Future generations of men therefore gradually become less "manly".
We are actually seeing this process today. With the exception of a few pockets like America's deep south and the midwest, today's western man is much softer than his ancestors that lived merely one hundred years ago. The only stronghold for European alpha male types are in the Slavic world; primarily Russia, Ukraine and Poland.
Just like the domesticated foxes in the Russian study and just like how post-war western males have been softened considerably, we Armenians have also been domesticated and softened. While we did not have a scientist or a group of elite planning the parameters of our breeding, what we did have was historic circumstances governing the parameters of our breeding.
DeleteWith a few rare exceptions like Artsakh, subservient peasants and merchants (those meekly living under Islamic/Turkic rule) were the only ones that were producing Armenian children for one last thousand years. By the 15th century, virtually all of Armenia's nobility and warrior class had abandoned Armenia and Armenian civilization had transformed into that of lowly peasants and traveling businessmen.
We today are the offsprings of peasants and merchants. I don't care who you are, your ancestors, your bloodline, is either peasant of merchant.
This in essence is breeding. This in essence is genetics. We are how we are today due to this breeding. We can argue what's more important, culture or breeding? We can argue what came first, culture or breeding? But at the end of the day, we are who we are due to nearly one thousand years of circumstantial breeding.
Sadly, most people do not understand the important role genetics play in who we are as individuals and as a people.
Similar to how wild foxes and domesticated foxes are genetically identical yet they are characteristically also very different from each other, the modern Armenian can be genetically identical to ancient Armenians but characteristically also be very different from them.
In my opinion, we today have little in common with our ancestors that lived one thousand years ago and earlier. Two thousand years ago, Armenia has a national nobility that was then already hundreds of years old. Two thousand years ago Armenia had national institutions that were then already hundred of years old. Two thousand years ago Armenia had military traditions that were then already hundreds of years old. Two thousand years ago Armenia was a significant power and was well known throughout the known world. Two thousand years ago Armenian civilization was more advanced than it is today.
We were a real nation back then. We are barely a nation today. I want to see us become a real nation again.
I'm not sure, Arevordi. The Balkan region might have some alpha male types as well, and Serbia has displayed some conservative outlook on their society, even as the West forces them to introduce gay pride parades in Belgrade. There were several pride parades that were cancelled due to "security concerns" a while ago, but homophobia remains strong in Serbian society. It's a sign that Serbia still has some form of sanity left in their society. While speaking on the Balkan nations, Bulgaria too was described as the most homophobic nation in the EU as well:
Deletehttp://www.novinite.com/articles/116282/Bulgaria+Ranks+High+in+Homophobia
If I had to speak to an Armenian activist (say conservative or progressive) face to face, here's what I should tell them: "promotion of homosexuality is a part of the Cultural Marxist movement that seeks to destroy the traditional family unit. Without the traditional family unit, the nation-state will eventually collapse as it will have no stable pillars to rely on. Traditional family values and patriarchy are what guides a nation-state. Remove those, and you have an anarchy. Anarcho-communists are aiming for this very goal, and you want to support them? What will happen to the Armenian nation-state if Cultural Marxist values like homosexuality would be encouraged? Then you'd destroy your own country with your bare hands, and no Turkish or Azeri soldier will have lost their lives in a war against Armenia because the Armenian people have destroyed their own homes."
The White Anglo-Saxon Protestant Americans who ruled my native Philippines did a thorough job domesticating and softening us to the point where we simply are nothing more than puppies wagging the tail whenever an American shows up.
Jerriko, I agree. A lot of the males in that semi-Slavic region are indeed alpha types. The problem with the Balkans however is that it's small, fragmented and at conflict with itself. I was speaking of the three main Slavic nations in the world that compromise about 250 million mostly conservative/traditional people. I have great respect for Russians in particular. The last hope for the white race, Christianity and western civilization are Russians. The following is what I am talking about when I talk about alpha males and martial societies, it's all made in Russia -
DeleteYou're in the army now или Mortal fight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kLWOjfHm_4
Putin's tiny army: : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2588013/Putins-tiny-army-Russian-child-soldiers-trained-battle-tactics-weapons-hand-hand-combat-repel-enemy-Motherland.html
Russian hooligans were savage and organised, say England fans: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/russian-hooligans-savage-organised-england-fans-marseille-euro-2016
Soccer-Russian hooligans see themselves as Kremlin foot soldiers: http://news.trust.org/item/20160613163642-l1cc1/
Russia: British campaigner's assault ignored by police: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP9I04MFgDw
Pussy Riot attacked by whip-wielding Cossacks in Sochi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNB3N6DWVTs
INSANE Russian Counter Terror Confidence Drill: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI01qKAqYts
Total War: Medieval reenactors take down drones with spears in Russia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQpTQUdApOE
Russia: Spectacular drone footage shows Battle of Borodino reenacted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMtyxJDthX0
Very interesting. I now understand better when you refer to genetic attributes. I want to believe we've been talking about the same thing but with different words.
DeleteAlso, amazing videos regarding Russian martial culture. Makes me envious.
"The problem with the Balkans however is that it's small, fragmented and at conflict with itself."
DeleteIt might sound just like the situation in the Caucasus though. I guess that is the legacy of the Ottoman occupation of those regions, as the Turks did occupy portions of the Caucasus during their time.
It's also worth noting that Russian men didn't behave like their EU counterparts when the Muslim migrants were harassing Russian women in Murmansk. Those refugees got a huge beatdown that 18 of them ended up in hospital.
Regarding the argument about Armenia being stuck between Rome and Persia:
ReplyDeleteI am a student of ancient history and archaeology, mainly focused on the Greco-Roman world, Egypt and the Near East. Besides that for the last year I have delved heavily into ancient Armenian history up to the early middle ages.
With the exception of minor inaccuracies, Arevordi’s argument is 100% valid.
Before I used to think Tigran II was the best king we’ve ever had. Putting that argument aside, I have to say that the two most powerful dynasties we’ve ever had was the Ararat-Van-Urartu kingdom, as well as the Yervandunis. While the former had become a regional power on its own, The latter was tied to the Persian dynasty through intermarriage and were satraps of Armenia under Persia. Although they’ve made a number of revolts against Persia, they were smart enough to keep close ties to the Persian throne. Up until the fall of its dynasty by the Artashesyans, backed by the Seleucid Greeks, Yervanduni Armenia was strong, stable and its borders stretched from the Caspian Sea to Cappadocia. Yervanduni rulers and kings kept the country united. The Artashesyan dynasty, backed by the Seleucid Greeks, toppled the Yervandunis. Slowly Hellenistic art and culture penetrated Armenia. Armenian/Persian gods started incorporating Greek equivalent names (Zeus for Aramazd, Aphrodite for Astghik etc.). While Hellenistic culture in itself is rich, it was also very hedonistic. At the same time, early Roman culture was more influenced by Greek Stoic philosophy, the exact opposite of Greek hedonistic/epicurean philosophy, which eventually brought Rome to its height up until the reign of Marcus Aurelius. Returning to Armenia, the Artashesyans, willingly or unwillingly, created an atmosphere of “either…or”. The first major internal strifes within Armenia are seen during the reign of Tigran II. After his death it was pure chaos. Without getting into all the details, the dismemberment of Armenian society and nobility, in my opinion, dates back to 189 BC with the rise of the Artashesyan dynasty. Since 34 BC, with the death of Artavazd II, son of Tigran II, Armenia kept being devastated by Roman-Persian wars, followed by Byzantine-Persian and Byzantine-Arab wars.
By the early 11th century, while Armenians and Byzantines had a historic opportunity to settle their differences and turned the Caucasus into an impenetrable fortress, internal quarrels and wars weakened them both… and here we are today. I can go on, but I believe it’s enough for the moment.
I don't want to talk too much about the Ararat-Urartu kingdom because we have limited information about it. In any case, I do not believe the kingdom was exclusively an Armenian one as many of our nationalist nutjobs do. The kingdom was a confederation of regional tribes that essentially got together to resist the Assyrian Empire.
DeleteYes, the Yervanduni period was perhaps Armenia's most peaceful and prosperous. Ironically, it was a time when Armenia was not independent but part of the Persian Empire.
Although it was Alexander's Selucids that introduced Hellenism to the Armenian Highlands, it was King Tigran II than drew Romans physically into Armenia. Although the king was Persian, he as Hellenized and I suspect his had more of an affinity towards Rome than towards Persia.
Anyway, this is how I see it: At first, Armenia had to remain within Persia's orbit. It didn't. It chose the western/Christian path and broke off its ties with Persia. Consequently, Armenia suffered devastation for centuries. But, Christianity eventually proved beneficial to Armenians. Then, Armenia had a chance to unite with or enter into alliance with Christian Byzantines. For reasons I do not want to get into, Armenia failed to do so again. Again, Armenia suffered centuries of devastation. Now, we have had the Russian period in our history. And like our previous two periods with Persia and Byzantium, we today are once again getting ready to abandon our natural ally essentially because of our pursuit of other people's fairytales. And we are doing this again at a time when we are surrounded by vicious enemies. We collectively are either a stupid people, a masochistic people or a people stuck in a circular time warp.
PS: I am very impressed with your knowledge.
Regarding Ararat-Urartu and the Artashesyan, the problem lies in the fact that Armenian history is falsified to a point where we do not have enough evidence nowadays to support it. Let me try to be as brief as possible.
DeleteIn case of Urartu (and this is mainly based on my observation), there was a significant Armenian population within the kingdom. As for the dynasty, if you think about names such as Sarduri, Argishti, and Menua, they do not sound very Armenian. However, by now we were getting most of our information from the Assyro-Babylonian and the Urartian cuneiform scripts, which both used the same writing style. The third one, a hieroglyphic type of alphabet, was unreadable until recently, where Urartologists in Armenia are slowly deciphering the language. Most of those unfamiliar words in Assyrian/Urartian dialect are now read in what is believed to be "archaic" Armenian (pre-Grabar). For example, Argishti is pronounced Argist, Erebuni is pronounced Yervuni, Biaina is pronounced Van. I believe this is enough for now to make the case of Urartu a more-or-less Armenian populated kingdom. The other nations that possibly inhabited the land (which are known as Alarodians), were mainly, in my opinion proto-Iranians or proto-Kurds. Here is a more detailed article about the hieroglyphic language:
http://armfvn.com/news/view/%D5%B8%D6%82%D6%80%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%BF%D5%A5%D6%80%D5%A5%D5%B6%D5%A8-%D5%B0%D5%B6%D5%A1%D5%A3%D5%B8%D6%82%D5%B5%D5%B6-%D5%B0%D5%A1%D5%B5%D5%A5%D6%80%D5%A5%D5%B6%D5%B6-%D5%A7-%D5%AB%D5%B6%D5%B9%D5%B8%D5%9E%D6%82-%D5%B0%D5%B8%D6%80%D5%AB%D5%B6%D5%A5%D6%81%D5%AB%D5%B6-%C2%AB%D5%B8%D6%82%D6%80%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%BF%D5%A5%D6%80%D5%A5%D5%B6%C2%BB-%D5%AC%D5%A5%D5%A6%D5%B8%D6%82%D5%B6.html#.V14u0bsrLIU
Regarding the Artashesyans, it is believed they are a branch of the Yervandunis/Orontids.
DeleteNow, here lies another problem. We know very little about the Yervandunis. If we are to believe Western or Iranian scholars, the Yervandunis were of Persian origin. However, if we are to believe the Armenian source, Movses Khorenatsi, to him the Yervandunis were natives, as in pure Armenians. Now, I know that Khorenatsi has gotten a bad reputation, especially by the likes of Robert Thompson, but as time goes on, along with archaeological works in historic Armenia and the region, the bulk of his sayings are turning out to be true, which is why I am inclined to believe that the Yervandunis are Armenian by origin, who only later got culturally more Persian. Here is what Khorenatsi says about the Yervandunis:
"«Այժմ ես կանցնեմ թվարկելու մեր մարդկանց, մանավանդ՝ թագավորներին, մինչեւ Պարթեւների տերության հաստատվելը: Որովհետեւ մեր թագավորների մեջ ինձ այս մարդիկ են սիրելի, իբրեւ բնիկներ, արյունա-կիցներ եւ իսկական հարազատներ: Ես շատ կփափագեի, որ այն ժամանակ Փրկիչն եկած եւ ինձ գտած լիներ, որ նրանց ժամանակ ես աշխարհ եկած լինեի, նրանց տերությամբ զվարճանայի եւ այժմյան վտանգներից խուսափած լինեի»:"
The problem is throughout centuries, a lot of primary sources have gotten lost. What has survived and better preserved are mainly from nations that have not suffered destruction (internal and external) as much as Armenia, hence neighboring Persia one of them. That is why more and more scholars are inclined to believe that the Yervandunis are of pure Iranian origin. If that is true (which I believe is too early to consider this argument valid), then we are left with no dynasty of Armenian origin (if we keep Urartu in question marks and consider the Bagratunis as yet another offshoot of the Yervandunis (the idea of them being of Jewish origin comes from that dynasty later creating a legend around them being from the house of David, probably to legitimize their rule)) other than Cilicia (the Lusignans were Catholic but of Armenian descent. People mistakenly believe that since they are called Franks it means they are French, whereas Franks back then meant Catholic). Ironically, we have dynasties of Armenian origin in the Byzantine Empire, the Heraclians and the Macedonyans in particular, who for the most part worked against Armenian interests.
Now, here is the most disheartening part: Based on what you say about genetics/breeding and based on the assumption that Armenians have not had for the most part rulers of Armenian origin, then that explains MANY things about the flaws we have today as a nation, including the fact that we are very hardly able to follow a leader. I will stop for now and am looking forward to hear your analysis.
Coming to Tigran II, him being Hellenized, and Rome’s presence in Armenia.
DeleteLet us go back to what was happening at the time. Rome was expanding to the East, with Pontus being the main and only obstacle. The Seleucids were weakened. Parthia had internal strifes. Tigran, having grown in the Persian court from about his teenage years till the age 45, had undoubtedly received imperial education. And he most probably had at the back of his mind to seek revenge from Parthia once he was king. That is why when he returned to Armenia he got crowned at the site of what was to be his future capital, Tigranakert, meaning that he had envisioned his empire in his mind. After getting into an alliance with Pontus and getting human resources and moveable goods after subduing Cappadocia, Tigran went on the offensive in Parthia. Afterwords, he was invited to rule over the Seleucids/Syria. This naturally led him to conquer Phoenicia, Judea, Nabatea etc.
I am saying all this so far to show why and how Tigran created an empire. He had the intent, then he got the resources, and finally he got requests to rule over others, meaning that to an extent he got quite lucky.
Yes, his empire was Hellenistic themed for a number of reasons. Other than Hellenism was in Armenia, the rest of his empire were mainly Greeks or Greek-speakers. The lingua franca at the time was also Greek. This all explains why he was ruling under the banner of Hellenism. It was the only way to unite the people under his rule.
Now, returning to Asia Minor, Rome eventually defeated Mithridates of Pontus. Supposing Tigran didn’t go on this venture of creating an Empire and remained in Armenia proper, Rome was still going to reach Armenia after Pontus’ defeat in 71 BC. His policy of neutrality with Rome at the beginning is probably why you suspect that he had an affinity towards Rome. I intend to believe he was planning on creating a new nation of his own in order to counter Rome. There are even some sources which suggest that Tigran was creating a nuisance to Rome by using the Cilician pirates against Roman ships and trade routes. There is also one scholar who suggests that Tigran once sent cavalry as reinforcements to Spartacus when he was rebelling against Rome. At the same time, Tigran was working with the Ptolemies of Egypt in an attempt to turn that country into a vassal state of his. All of this makes me assume that Tigran was avoiding confrontation so that his imperial plans would not fail.
Finally, let us assume for a moment that Tigran ruled as king but did not go on Imperial ventures. After Rome’s victory over Pontus, what would have Tigran done? Sided with Rome against Persia, or vice-versa? It is hard to say.
One critical thing I forgot to mention about Urartu:
DeleteThe supreme deity Khaldi is translated into HAYK in the hieroglyphic language of the country. Yes, HAYK. There was scholarly research done in the past decades that Hayk nahapet was an actual person and after his death he was deified around 2450s BC in Armenia. This makes perfect sense if we combine it with the Khaldi-Hayk duality of Urartu.
Also, if we are to look into Khorenatsi's work once more, Hayk's establishment of Armenia and the battle against Bel around lake Van seemed to have been an actual event. The detail of the battle is explained very precisely, as well as the use of weaponry (three-winged arrow) and other battle tactics. It is highly possible that Bel of Babylon was actually a king of Assyria, as Assyria and Babylon were known as the same culture.
If further research is conducted and more hieroglyphic inscriptions are deciphered, I believe the case of Urartu's Armenianness (or being Armenian-dominated to a large extent) can be solidified.
Ռազմիկ Արտաշես,
DeleteYou are extremely well versed in our history. You also are able to place historical events in their proper geopolitical context. That's a talent not many people have. I'm very impressed to say the least. Now I know who to talk to when I have questions. But, I still have to say we still know very little about the Urartians and the Yervandunis. Everything at this point is therefore theory and conjecture. Also, if I may, I noticed one flaw in your reasoning: You can't take Movses Khorenati's words about Yervandunis being native Armenians and then reject his words about the Bagratunis being of Jewish extraction. That's selective reasoning. In case you are interested, this is what the Jewish Encyclopedia says about the Bagratunis -
http://www.jewishencyclopedia.com/articles/2355-bagratuni
With that said, let's remember that all these ruling dynasties were in Armenia for centuries. They therefore were more Armenian than whatever ethnic origin they initially had. Finally, from what I know: The Lusingans were an aristocratic French clan that came to rule Cilician Armenia after the last Hetumid king died. From what I remember, Levon V, the last Cilician king and a Lusignan, did not even have Armenian blood. What makes you say they were Armenians?
Arevordi,
DeleteRegarding Khorenatsi, there are certain things we have to consider:
First we have to keep in mind that by the time he wrote Armenian History, Armenia was already 150 years into Christianity. That time period was not enough to erase Mithraic/Zoroastrian practices and principles within the people (in fact, Zoroastrianism continued well into the 11th century in small numbers and in secret). Keeping that in mind, Khorenatsi was under supervision, and had to do his best to write as pro-Christian as possible. By his time, the Yervandunis and the Artashesyans were already extinct, while the Bagratunis weren't. Now, I haven't gotten deep into this yet, but there are some scholars who claim that the Bagratunis are another offshoot of the Yervandunis. Coming back to Khorenatsi and the idea of pro-Christianism, it is highly likely that the idea of the Bagratunis being from the house of David, as in of Jewish descent, was made up by that nobility and by the clergy, in order to solidify their position in Christian Armenia. At the same time, Khorenatsi once in a while took a hit on pre-Christian kings, like Artavazd II, claiming he was living a gluttonous lifestyle and didn't care about the country. I believe the Christian factor has a lot to do in his writing style.
The link that you posted is self-contradicting. First, there is this part:
"The foregoing account of the origin of the Bagratuni rests upon the history of Moses of Chorene. Another Armenian historian, Bishop Sebeos, who lived in the seventh century, gives, instead of Shamba Bagarat, Bagarat-Tarazian "from the descendants of Armaniac, the son of Haik, the ancestor of the Armenians" ("Istoria Pokhoda Iraka v Persiu," p. 12; and Von Gutschmidt, who in his"Kleine Schriften," iii. 282 et seq. suggests that Moses of Chorene as a court historian was forced to dissemble the real origin of the Armenian dynasty in the interests of Shabat Bagratuni, who led the revolt against Persian domination)."
This Sebeos, whom I wasn't familiar as of now, makes a very interesting claim, which again brings the Bagratunis into the Armenian origin hypothesis. However, I won't comment any further on Sebeos as of now, instead, let us continue with the article.
Then, there is this:
" Berkhin, in his "Rod Bagratuni," in comparing the two different accounts, shows (1) that the sources of Sebeos were known to Moses, who (book i., ch. xxii.) warns his readers not to believe "such foolish words, which have not even a semblance of truth";"
The verdict for now should be inconclusive, but I admit that the Jewish case has more backup. That is not to say it is accurate. That is one of the main problems of Khorenatsi. One has to first learn the history from earlier primary sources, and then read Khorenatsi. I have no doubt that prior to 301 AD we had some form of written history. That event has left its impact until today.
Finally, when I said that Khorenatsi's writings are accurate, I was referring to actual events that took place, like battles, meetings, treaties, not on kings, dynasties etc.
As for the Lusignans: I am no expert of Cilicia as of yet. I am specializing more in the world history during the Antiquity period. I made that claim based on a video of Artak Movsisyan explaining the origin of the Lusignans and how not to confuse them with French/Franks/Catholics etc. Yes, I am aware of the historical notion that the Lusignans are of French descent, but I haven't gotten too much into it.
Here's what I've noticed about the investment in the military equipment of both the US and Russia:
ReplyDelete1) The United States tend to over-engineer the shit out of certain equipment, like the F-35, which was supposed to replace the F-22 but certain technical problems arise, as explained in this article:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3552155/Controversial-F-35-fighter-jet-brain-problem-entire-fleet-grounded-claims-report.html
The West does have a tendency to create needless problems for their equipment and require special skills to repair them. For example, a German Volkswagen has been over-engineered to the point where it has become inefficient. The Americans, with their heavy investment in upgrades, do end up creating an extremely expensive equipment that would also require special skills to repair them.
2) Russia's manufacturing of its military equipment may have been dismissed by the West as a 'piece of junk' but it's also quite easy to repair. I've talked to a Canadian Forces soldier who had some technical knowledge on the tanks and I've asked why the Canadian military had purchased the more expensive German Leopard tank instead of the cheaper Russian T-series tank, and the soldier told me that it's consider junk because it's been mass produced. WWII's German Wehrmacht constantly came up with advanced designs for their improved equipment, and yet the supposedly technological inferior Soviet Red Army managed to win the war with mass produced but 'technologically inferior' equipment.
3) Not to go off topic, but I would have also suspected that China's military equipment has taken a page out of both the Russian and European books and made them not only easy to mass produce, but also gave them quite an improvement. China's main assault rifle is based on the European bullpup design, which is the QBZ-95. However, they've made their own innovations on the Russian designs for their weapons, mainly in the armored vehicles.
So ironically, when the West constantly refers to Russia as the new Nazi Germany, they should also be labeled as the new Nazi Germany in terms of their over-reliance on wonder weapons. Hitler relied too much on wonder weapons to turn the tide of the war, and I would suspect that NATO would rely too much on their technological advantage over Russia, hence why Russia has resorted to developing EMP weapons.
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1878.htm
Speaking of Russian military interventions, even during Yeltsin's time Russian troops helped the Serbs during the so called incident at Pristina airport in 1999.
ReplyDeleteIncident at Pristina airport: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Pristina_airport
Correct. The Russian intervention in Pristina was a last ditch effort to maintain at least some form of influence/presence in the Western occupied region. Little known is the fact that Moscow's move at the time almost sparked a world war -
DeleteWesley Clark: The Guy Who Almost Started World War III:
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/jatras12.html
I'd like to add here that the incident back in 1993, when the Russian military warned Turkey not to get involved in the Artsakh war, can also be seen as a form of Russian military intervention. The warning by Russia essentially sealed our victory against Azerbaijan by keeping Turks out of the fight at a very crucial time -
Moscow Sees War Threat if Outsiders Act in Karabakh: http://articles.latimes.com/1992-05-21/news/mn-337_1_karabakh-conflict
Arevordi, you put out a lot to chew and digest again.
ReplyDeleteZoravar, thank you again for an excellent report.
PS: I think you guys will enjoy this South Front report: https://southfront.org/russia-defense-report-russian-forces-in-armenia/
I believe the Soviet fitness culture that Mr. Artashes was referring to was this:
ReplyDeletehttp://rbth.com/multimedia/pictures/2014/04/01/sports_as_a_way_of_life_in_authentic_soviet_posters_35551
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ready_for_Labour_and_Defence_of_the_USSR
And if you look at old clips from Soviet Armenia, you'll see muscular Armenian men marching together and holding flags.
Like in this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8PvUkwHS4c
At 2:40, you'll see male and female Armenian athletes standing and walking. The female athletes have nice legs. ;) At 24:00, you'll see the athletes in action. The entire 20 minute section is worth watching. Yerevan was REALLY festive that day.
There's also this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSQELITEcHs
This shows the removal of Lenin's statue. The most interesting part is the flashbacks that it shows. I was VERY surprised and intrigued at what I saw. Again, it showed the male athletes marching with flags. It also showed scouts marching in the Republic Square, large parades with floats, and large super-disciplined marching bands.
The parades and festivals back then were more grandiose than now. In fact, I don't think we ever had non-military parades in today's Armenia.
I WISH we can see these things today! I WISH Armenia kept those good values from the USSR and used them for Armenian nationalism! Now we just have a stupid "pop" culture, or as Yervand Bozoyan calls it "սերիալական հասարակութիւն".
I've been searching, reading, and watching old footage from Soviet Armenia. I'm still amazed and surprised to discover what we had and lost. I was born and raised in the diaspora, so this is all new to me.
As soon as the Soviet Union exhibited signs of weakness, Armenians enthusiastically destroyed everything the Soviet system had given to Armenia. Our idiots shutdown all Russian schools (which was replaced by English) and our crooks tore down the massive factories Soviets had built in Armenia and sold the parts to Iranians at scrap metal prices. Worst, Armenians enthusiastically replaced the old Soviet system with the worst the Western world had to offer, crony capitalism and American pop culture. We also did something similar to this back in 301 AD. That particular stupid move eventually worked out well for us. So, we got really lucky with that one. This time, it's anybody's guess. Anyway, I don't know if you have noticed but for the past two thousand-plus years, Armenia's golden periods have come during times when Armenians were under foreign rule (namely ancient Persia and Russia). Armenian traits seem to work well only when Armenians are living in powerful political systems created by other people.
DeleteI always put it to people this way: Soviet Armenia gave us Aram Khachaturyan, "independent" Armenia gave us Aram Asatryan. Enjoy -
Aram Khachaturyan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLENHBw48DA
Aram Asatryan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEjPRKwLvZ0
There are dumb people bordering on hallucinatory insanity. And these people sit in parliament, naturally since Armenia is a "democracy". Parukyan and his gang of political miscreants were demonstrating against parliament's ratification of the Armeno-Russian air defense agreement. Weird and outlandish claims on flailing poster, such as the agreement profiles Armenia against "Nato", which is "actually supporting Armenia ". Nato is confronting Armenia, not supporting her. If the protest was intended to provide cheap entertainment, a pavement circus, and copious belly laughter, they definitely have accomplish their task. Parukyan and his gangsters should be exiled to Ankara, or Baku, where they can evangelize the message of the brotherhood of regional peoples, ( Georgian,turks,Azeries). Parukyan is married to a Jewess. One should investigate his roots and bloodline, certain to finds litres of hebraic-turkic blood. But then again, his brain is critically messed up.
ReplyDeleteArevordi, when the interviewer says we saw Russian acting not in our favors this good man answers what have we done to make Russians act in our favor? This is exactly what you've been saying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MaD5olv0ww
ReplyDeleteThe overall situation seems to be in a limbo, a temporary hiatus. Rouhani is scheduled to visit Yerevan. Putin is engineering a meeting between the animal Alyev and Serge. Nethanu visited Putin, and the devil knows what they discussed. There is a sense of ever lasting temporariness in all this. On the Syrian front, the reports are muddled and incongruous. The SAA is marching toward Raqqa, and no, it is not heading toward Raqqa, but toward Tabka. Isil fortifies its position close to the Turkish border. Aleppo's fate hangs in the balance. War fortunes change on daily basis, the Americans are building an air base, the french are sending men, now the Germans appear to be sending men. The Syrian cauldron keeps heating up. Putin said to Erdogan, he'll create a Stalingrad. A Stalingrad for whom? This Stalingrad is being fought by proxies on Syrian ground, I don't think Assad is pleased with Syria turning into a stalingrad. Who is on top at the moment, the AA-zionist entente or Russia-Assad. Kerry's ultimatum for plan B after August may reveal some answers. The present situation in flux is the normalcy. Do not expect outcomes but a continuation of tension until a paradox intervenes and causes an unforeseeable paradigm shift.
ReplyDeleteI've got some great news! Because the Russians can't make any move without pissing off Armenians, and because our people will never become politically literate with our incompetent government that never educates them and only makes things worse for Russian-Armenian relations, the Russians have decided to educate Armenians themselves. They just opened up a school of diplomacy in Armenia!
ReplyDeleteՀայաստանում Հանրային դիվանագիտության դպրոց է բացվել
http://sputnik.co.am/society/20160616/3909606.html
Yes, good new indeed. But, it will most probably have low attendance because our Western operatives and their brain-dead followers will accuse the school of being run by the "KGB". Our Captain Americas will also say that this is yet another sign that Armenia is losing its independence. In the end, the lure of the Western lifestyle and US Dollars will prove irresistible and Armenians will continue disregarding their alliance with their most important neighbor. Historically, Armenians have treated their friends as enemies and their enemies as friends -
DeleteArmenia MOD discusses cooperation with Fletcher School and Tavitian Foundation: http://news.am/eng/news/297256.html
NATO cooperation reaches fruition as new university opens in Armenia: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_127688.htm
Armenian Military Details 2014 Drills With U.S. Troops: http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/26820436.html
Second largest one in the world: Goals and tasks of U.S. Embassy in Armenia: http://www.verelq.am/en/node/5628
US Officials Visit Armenia to Discuss Military Cooperation: http://sputniknews.com/military/20160526/1040321268/karabakh-armenia-us-military-cooperation.html
Armenia has new National Security Service Chief: http://news.am/eng/news/311329.html
Azerbaijani special squad lieutenant colonel eliminated in April had been trained in USA: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/847243/azerbaijani-special-squad-lieutenant-colonel-eliminated-in-april-had-been-trained-in-usa.html
American military contractors MPRI Inc is training Azeri marksmen: http://www.militaryindustrialcomplex.com/contract_detail.asp?contract_id=81
US Naval Special Ops Demos Training in Azerbaijan: http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=26294
The Sunday Times: British special forces carried out secret trainings in Azerbaijan: http://www.panorama.am/en/society/2013/10/21/sunday-times/
Azerbaijan Makes Massive Israeli Weapons: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65053
U.S. alloted $20 mln in military aid to Azerbaijan, $41.000 to Armenia: http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/212592/US_alloted_20_mln_in_military_aid_to_Azerbaijan_41000_to_Armenia
Is a US-Financed Azeri Satellite A Threat to Armenia’s Security?: http://asbarez.com/94756/is-a-us-financed-azeri-satellite-a-threat-to-armenia%E2%80%99s-security/
Azerbaijan and Israel’s Aerospace Industry. A Worrying Concern for Armenia or Iran?: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2015/05/04/azerbaijan-and-israels-aerospace-industry-a-worrying-concern-for-armenia-or-iran/
Turkish Jets to Deliver American Nuclear Warheads: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-given-possession-of-nuclear-warheads-
George Friedman: “Russian presence in Armenia is bad for Turkey”: http://theriseofrussia. blogspot.com/2010/11/arye-gut- israeli-jewish-expert-in.html
Turkish Advice: Armenian diaspora, focus on Russia rather than Turkey! http://www.hurriyetdailynews. com/armenian-diaspora-focus- on-russia-rather-than-turkey
Richard Giragosian: My work with the Turkish government is in support of normalizing relations: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2cz9vw_adnan-oktar-s-live-discussion-on-a9-tv-with-richard-giragosian-director-of-the-armenian-think-tank-r_news
Although I am weary of this article, the following statement is worrying if true.
ReplyDelete"Amid increasing regional risks, Armenia adopted a new Planning and Review Process with NATO, designed to enable Armenia to restructure and modernize its armed forces, finally abandoning the obsolete Soviet army system. It would indeed be wrong to infer that this particular step constitutes an environment for a geopolitical U-turn on Armenia’s part. Nevertheless, it is driven by a necessity to strengthen armed forces and make them capable of addressing new security challenges. In short, tactical failures in the Four-Day War, to some extent, spurred Armenia’s Ministry of Defense on one hand to seek new defense partners abroad, and on the other hand to intensify cooperate with NATO and the United States in order to diminish dependence on Moscow in defense and security affairs."
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-south-caucasus-united-divided-by-nato-16534?page=show
Here is another article by another Armenian in the same publication -
DeleteWhat Armenia Wants from America: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-armenia-wants-america-16454
The whole premise of the matter - because Russia did not help Armenia, Armenia will seek help from the West - is just stupid. First, we all know that there was no need for Russia to come to Armenia's aid because Armenia was never under any threat. Second, if after all these years Armenians can't handle the Azeri threat against Artsakh, then maybe Armenians don't deserve statehood. Third, we all know that Western powers are more favorable toward Azerbaijan because they have invested tens of billions of dollars in the country; they see Azerbaijan as a gateway to central Asian oil/gas fields; they see Azerbaijan as a potential partner against Russia and Iran.
We all know that Western powers will NEVER provide Armenia with any kind of security against Azerbaijan or Turkey. We all know that push comes to shove, Russia is the ONLY nation on earth that is willing to militarily come to Armenia's aid.
So, I'm afraid there is a lot of wishful thinking and political masturbation going on among Armenians again. Also, a lot of people are reading too much into what Armenian officials are doing lately.
Simply put: Yerevan is putting a gun to its head and threatening to kill itself (i.e. closer relations with NATO) if Moscow tries to force an Artsakh settlement. Yerevan does not intend to kill itself, at least not intentionally. Yerevan is only pretending to be suicidal to scare the Bear. This nevertheless shows just how directionless and reactionary Armenian politics has become in recent years. I am seeing a lot of desperation and stupidity in Yerevan.
Armenian - NATO contacts have no intrinsic value. It is a case of expanding one's network of connections albeit within recognized limits. The contacts can go up to a certain level and no further. In this 4 day flare up was Armenia itself attacked ? Artsakh borders came under direct assault. What is Russia supposed to do with a "region" which juridically speaking is not even officially recognized as Armenian integral territory ?, contrary to the factual realities . If Armenia wants Russian assistance, then they she ought to assume the responsibility of recognizing Artsakh as an integral part of Armenia. The situation as is now is hanging in the air. Artsakh wont be recognized as an independent nation on the international plane, except maybe by countries like Bolivia or Ecuador. Armenian diplomacy is dysfunctional on this score. The premise of auto determination of people's must be driven deep into its logical conclusions. The territorial integrity concept , in Artsakh case has no validity since the Ussr ceased to exist, and the territorial borders were fixed by a body which Is not extant . Russian treaties of strategic and military cooperation are with Armenia and not with enclaves outside Armenian recognized borders. During the 4 day flare up , the government threatened to recognize Artsakh. What was the point ? Is anyone going to tell us the Azeries stopped their assault because of the threat of recognition ? . The government needs to evolve a diplomatic, or other formula to officially break the artificial stalemate on Artsakhs position . Territorial integrity runs counter to autodetermination. These two irreconcilable concepts were created at the turn of the past century with obvious intentions to apply double standards in discretionary manner. There are numerous legalistic legerdemain in the framework of law and jurisprudence. In the end the will and capacity of a nation to break through these legalese ambushes dictates the outcome. For whatever reasons it has become clear that Armenia lacks that all imperative will to turn reality in the ground into official incorporation. This will not mean that the enemy will accept the imposed dispensation, nor that international bodies will endorse the move. The current status quo is neither accepted by the " international community" nor by the enemy. What this will mean is to put a stop to the dirge and wailing in certain Armenian quarters that we had no assistance from Russia in the latest crisis, forgetting that a situation never arose where Armenian " recognized territorial disputes integrity was ever compromised, which would have compelled a strategic partner to intervene in accordance with security agreements . As for complimentary politics it is a dead end pursued by the government. They know it too, but it has its breadth and scope and it is unlikely that it will travel further than its prescribed limits. Contacts with NATO are to be seen within this context. Armenian diplomacy requires an overhaul, the risks are to guard that the overhaul does not open opportunities for western educated, indoctrinated ,trained operatives to assume positions of responsibility , which by its essence can only be anti national, anti Armenian, an internationalist oriented.
DeleteArevordi,
DeleteGot done reading the whole blog in full. The chapter on Persia and Rome was really interesting. Time warp is right. Got a lot of mixed feeling about all this but it sure seems like our leaders are reactionary and nothing more. Our country is not being governed right but like you remind what's the alternative, LTP, Raffi, Baruyr? I hope Russians take more hands on approach to Armenia.
Russia's Newest A2/AD Sphere: The South Caucasus?: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-new-a2-ad-sphere-the-south-caucasus-16641?page=2
DeleteThe author, eduard abrahamyan, is with pfa. what else can one expect from that smut peddling pseudo think tank and her lemmings?
The points brought up by the other author, Areg Galstyan, are more valid. If Armenia commits itself fully to Russia, it is likely to lose its ties with the west and of course made to pay a price. Will Russia pay for this price by compensating Armenia? How much will azerbaijan and turkey benefit? I believe Armenia must move closer to Russia but not without understanding what that entails. And not without creating a grand strategy (GS). Survival is not a good GS. The current administration is stuck in its ways and will not make a radical change on its own. Most likely outside factors will force their hands. True, small countries and powers are mostly reactive, but there is enough room to be proactive within the restrictive parameters that small states tend to find themselves in. In other words while the room may be small in which these states find themselves in, they are not in a pantry closest with little to no space in which to move about. Utilizing the limited options that are available at any given time is easier to do when one has a plan, a grand strategy. But who amongst Sargsyan's team is thinking in these terms?
Re: "This nevertheless shows just how directionless and reactionary Armenian politics has become in recent years. I am seeing a lot of desperation and stupidity in Yerevan."
ReplyDeleteBut what could Yerevan do now? In other words, setting aside their past mistakes and inaction, what could they do at this point? Any settlement that Moscow could pressure Baku to accept would probably cause serious problems inside Armenia. What would you do in their shoes? To modify LG's point above, is there any way Yerevan could stall for some time while trying to come up with a grand strategy?
Eurasian,
DeleteThe emotional and ignorant masses seldom know what they want. And even when they know what they want, what they want is seldom what's good for the country. The dispute over NKR has to be settled. The sooner this happens the better. Russians seriously want a settlement. Armenians desperately need a settlement. The south Caucasus desperately needs Pax Russica. With the dispute over NKR settled, the road to Pax Russica becomes much shorter. In the end, Armenians will have to give up something. Even "almighty" Israel was forced to give up somethings. That said, what Armenia gives up is up to the political acumen of Armenian officials and the quality of Russo-Armenian relations. If Moscow is convinced that Armenians are seriously willing to negotiate, the pressure will automatically be placed on Baku.
Had I been in power, I would have my diplomats and military officials basically camping in the Kremlin on a 24/7 basis. I would then mobilize all combat troops, deploy them to forward positions and make them ready for war. I would then recognize NKR proper along with 2 of the 7 Armenian controlled regions that are outside of NKR proper as part of Armenia and thus part of Russia's military umbrella. I would then invite Russian Peacekeepers into the 5 Armenian controlled regions outside of Armenia. Afterwards, I would inform Azeris that Armenia is willing to negotiate the fate of the 5 regions in question.
Now, back down to reality.
My gut feeling tells me there is a lot of collaboration going on between Moscow, Yerevan and Baku. A lot of the things we are seeing on the surface, including tensions between Russia and Armenia, may be orchestrated. I have a feeling that the parameters of the settlement may have already been largely figured out and that they are now in the processes of slowly selling it to the public. Of course anything can still go wrong. After all, we still have Western powers and Turks involved in the equation. Western assets embedded inside Armenian society will no doubt make a play on our people's nationalistic sentiments in order to derail any Russian brokered settlement. And there may yet be another round of fighting before things are finally settled.
Recognition, de June or integration, of NKR with Armenia is a sine qua non for any future political settlement with the enemy. The issue of a settlement is not in Armenian hands. There is a de facto status quo. As long as the enemy sees the resolution of the conflict in strictly reinstating defunct blchevick borders, there is no grounds for " negotiations" . The present status quo can continue , the dispute is that of two irreconcilable opposite poles . The underpinning grid in the conflict is not to weaken Armenia's position. With present political ideologies in Turkey -Azerbaijan, there is no scope for the enemy to adopt an attitude which can lead to " compromising" negotiations. Armenia has nothing to compromise with. The enemy has no pressure to compromise either, particularly since their ideological philosophy postulates is the obliteration of the Armenian presence as a state. That is why the enemy's stance is the belief of a military solution. After all, the enemy realizes the Armenian nation state is an extension of Russian influence and power in the region.
DeleteArevordi, i always enjoy reading ur blog, today i only read the 10 points and i want to make the following remarks:
ReplyDeleteAfter the 4 day war, Israel offered Armenia to buy the kamikaze drone to Armenia too, but we refused....y?
My point is , when Russia want to sell weapons to our enemy its called business, but of Armenia want to buy weapons from diffrent sources thats betraying!! Now your gonna tell me we brought chinese mlrs or Milan anti tank, thats nothing compared to what they sell to Azeris and draw a red line when it comes to us! Im not against allying with Russia, but ruskis have to understand that its a brother to brother relation and not master-slave relation, because it will come time that people will have enough, we have dignity, look what happened to Georgia! Ill keep reading the article tonight all thank you
Dikran,
DeleteReading my ten points reminded you to say all this? I clearly made the case that the problems we have in the military is related to the human element and not weapons systems. I clearly said that Armenia has more than enough weapons systems to defend itself against anything Azerbaijan has, and more advanced weapons are on the way.
Had you been reading my work (let alone enjoyed them) you would have understood by now that Moscow selling arms to Azerbaijan has very little to do with "business". Moscow sees both Baku and Yerevan as part of its orbit. Moscow has Armenia's alliance, it is now doing its best to win Baku's alliance. Moscow wants to bring all of the south Caucasus into its orbit. The dispute over Artsakh is seriously complicating matters. That said, I want Moscow to have leverage over Baku because less Russian leverage in Baku means more Turkish leverage in Baku.
Regarding Israeli weapons: Saying things and doing things are two very different things. When Israel opens an embassy in Armenia and stops supporting Turks in their genocide denial campaign, I'll take their words more seriously. In my opinion, Israel's offer was a cheap PR meant to fool idiots.
Also, had you been familiar with military matters you would have known that it is very difficult - and wasteful - to maintain weapons system from different parts of the world. Training, maintenance, spare parts, integration with other weapons system, overall cost... all these have to be carefully assessed and considered when deciding what weapons systems to acquire.
From an Armenian military perspective, not purchasing Israeli or American weapons has very little to do with politics or "betraying Russia" and everything to do with sound military logic and the proper expenditure of money. The Russian arms market, which we are a part of and very familiar with, has EVERYTHING Armenia needs for defense and offense, and such weapons systems are provided to us at very low cost and sometimes for FREE.
So, knowing this, had we went ahead and purchased Israeli or American weapons, it would be financially wasteful, militarily illogical and politically an insult to an ally that protects us from regional predators. And in the end, it would not make a difference on the battlefield.
Regarding Russian-Armenian relations: There is no such thing as a "brother to brother" relationship anywhere on earth, and never has been. Even the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance has serious internal problems. Do you think the US treats its "allies" equally? Armenia is a tiny, remote, poor and embattled nation surrounded by predators in a very nasty environment. Armenia today is a nation that exists only as a result of its strategic alliance with the Russian Bear. So, naturally, Armenia will not have real choices when it comes to certain political things. The relationship between us and the Bear will therefore never be that of equals.
Had we been a smart people, we would have understood this, we would have accepted this and we would have began figuring out a way to exploit this situation for Armenia's benefit. But, that's not happening because we Armenians admire Jews for their political agility and foresight but when the time comes to act like Jews, we instead act like Arabs.
Looking at what a superpower like Russia does and then say, Armenia should do the same - is like a house cat looking in the mirror and seeing a great lion. If this "proud" cat goes out to play in the Caucasian ecosystem without the Bear's protection, this "proud" cat will be a DEAD cat in no time.
Regarding Georgia: Because of their "dignity" Georgians lost 20% of their territory; Georgia is flooded by Turks; the typical Georgia today lives no better than the typical Armenian; whereas Georgia used to a slave of Russia, now it is a slave of Turks, Jews and Westerners. So, yeah, please look at what happened to Georgia! LOL
PS: I'd like to remind you that Georgians don't have problems with Turks and Azeris.
Anyway Dikran, take no offense, but the kind of thinking you are expressing here reminds of Քաջ Նազար. It also reminds me of the saying, կոշկակարների Քաղաքականություն. Having lived in the Middle East, you should have learned your political and history lessons a very long time ago. But I see that is not the case here. Please try to broaden your vision. Try to see things in the bigger picture. Try to put things in their proper context. Try to better understand our history. Try to be less emotional. More importantly, take a very close look at who we really are as a people before you prepare yourself for "ծովից-ծով հայաստան". As a typical Armenian, you are being naive, emotional, proud, shortsighted and politically ignorant. But I am sure you will disagree with me :)
DeletePS: If you want to hold a serious debate/discussion with me, then please be kind enough to at least read all of what I have had to say about this topic before you form an opinion about what I have said...
Recent updates from the Black Sea:
ReplyDelete- The brand new frigate "Admiral Grigorovich" specifically built for the Black Sea fleet has made the journey from the Baltic to the Black Sea. She is now deployed there and is expected to make frequent expeditions to the Mediterranean: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUjWFhKNVDA
- The second unit of the class "Admiral Essen" has just been accepted into service with a ceremony. She will soon sail to the Black Sea as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMB5u16kjLA
- The third unit "Admiral Makarov" is on trials. She is expected to reach the Black Sea sometime next year.
- The third Kilo class brand new conventional submarine "Stary Oskol" is on its way from the Baltic to the Black Sea as well. She made a fuss when she crossed the English channel on the surface. http://www.defense-aerospace.com/base/util/174550_1.jpg
Three more subs of this class will join the Black Sea fleet next year. All of the above ships and submarines carry KALIBR cruise missiles as well as other weapon systems. Russia's Black Sea fleet capabilities are fast growing.
Recent updates from the Polar Bear:
- The "Ilya Muromets" icebreaker has been launched. She is the first icebreaker to be operated by the military for over 40 years. All other Russian or Soviet icebreakers built in recent years had a civilian crew: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4oI-ZXIlvI
- The world's largest icebreaker, the nuclear powered "Arktika" has just been launched: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnQ3-dabgu4
- A diagram showing the Russian bases in the Arctic: https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/15519/269684333.28/0_14a732_a0611ce5_orig.png
News from air-space defense:
- Russia has successfully test-launched anti-missile system. It is not clear if it is the A-235 NUDOL system, an S-500 missile or something else: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3ipJdG1pjY
Forget all the weapons I mentioned in my article. The most powerful weapon in Russian hands is: Orthodox FAITH
DeleteWatch this clip (keep the captions ON for English translation): Stand up for faith, Russian land - Kuban Cossack Choir (2014): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTcAXiJAFBE
Beautiful. Powerful. Uplifting. I envy these people.
DeleteAnyone else pleased with the brexit results?
ReplyDeleteThe EU, the way it is configured today, administered, run, and executed resembles a walking carcass. The EU is a judaic political-economic construct; the gang of rogues, EU commission, unelected, self appointed political ogres are mere tools beholden to the occupying power centres from the end of WW2. The Brexit will change little of substance; The UK will not change its laws to stop the invasion of their islands, it will not deport the invading forces and waves of migration, it will not start to disembowelling herself from the alien established colonies; the UK will still remain an integral component of the Nato occupation forces; the UK will still espouse and promote globalism, multiracialism, degeneracy , sexual panmixia, anti europanism, and all the other trappings of an occupying power. What Brexit might do is to serve as a clarion call for the other nation states, entrapped in the EU corral; encourage nationalist groups and parties to emulate the UK by breaking free from the EU corral. Life and living conditions under the EU is becoming dangerously difficult for certain nations in the corral. A nation state, with a racial backbone and national identity it is not long for the EU. The leading nation in the EU bloc is the most aggressive, virulent and execrable anti national sledge hammer among its members ; spearheading the globalist, border less internationalist anti European agenda ; the evisceration-destruction of nation states though the invasion and population replacement of the indigenous European by its architects. The Brexiters claim the UK has regained her sovereignty. It remains to be seen how far and deep the so called sovereignty reaches. On both sides of the campaign, the leading thinkers and promoters were judaic, judeophiles,( as it's the norm) and Israeli firsters.
DeleteLG,
DeleteTry to look at what happened from outside the context of how the British vote to leave the EU has been presented by the controlled news press.
We know that the British elite was more-or-less split between those who wanted to stay and those who wanted to leave. This is essentially why they allowed their cattle to vote on the matter. Those who wanted to leave reportedly/supposedly won. Ostensibly, this is as good development. But, I am not as pleased or as convinced as you are. Yes, on the surface, Brexit looks like a defeat for the Globalists, and it may eventually usher in a rapprochement between EU and Russia. On the other hand, it also looks like continental Europe (EU) is being shafted by the Anglo-American-Jewish elite. Western powers may be distancing themselves from a Europe that they themselves are trying to implode.
Think of it this way: They undermined the Euro through nations like Greece; they pumped into the European continent over a million Muslims, with more on the way; they forced the EU to impose sanctions on Russia, which is also severely hurting the EU economy; they are currently creating a hostile situation on EU's border with Russia by fomenting Russophobia inside nations like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states.
The Brits are now all of a sudden pulling back? Well, it certainly makes sense from a British or a Western perspective.
The only way Anglo-American-Jews can continue living the good life and maintain their global supremacy is if there is political unrest and economic stagnation in the rest of the world. The more places they set on fire and the more places they ruin economically, the safer they feel at home. In Roman times this strategy was known as, ordo ab chao.
Ultimately, only time will show what this vote was all about and what, if any, repercussion it will have. From an Armenian perspective, the vote to abandon the EU can go both ways. It can be interpreted in a way that will encourage Armenians to exit the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union, or, as our presstitute Armine Sahakyan suggests, it may be a blow to our idiots' EU aspirations -
Brexit Vote Jolts EU-Membership Hopes in Three Former Soviet States: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/armine-sahakyan/brexit-vote-jolts-eu-memb_b_10680872.html
So you think the anglo-american-zionists know that the eu ship and europe as a whole is sinking? And therefore they have decided to jump ship? Even if this is the case, so what? What is taking place in Europe and in the eu is the fault of the elites and the sheep. A catharsis is needed.
DeleteThe brexit vote will serve to highlight for all the idiots in states thinking of joining the eu that the eu is unstable and probably does have issues, otherwise why would a rich nation (relative to the craphole the person finds herself in) leave? One can not even compare the EAU with the eu. The EAU is a true customs union. The eu is so much more than that. This is partially why it is failing, too ambitious of a project with little to no foresight or respect for people and what is in their interest.
Remember that the referendum is non-binding, parliament can still decide to stay. A few other scenarios may even develop which stall or prevent brexit. Secretly I think the Germans are happy about this development because now they will only have France to deal with and/or control. But because the eu leadership will not think of reforming or even questioning in any meaningful way why the uk decided to leave, we shall see other eu members pushing for similar referendums and the rise of anti-eu parties from both the left and right.
I don't know if brexit is a true blow against globalism, but if it is making the elites howl and markets unstable than I will continue to enjoy it.
You are misinterpreting what I am saying. In case you have not noticed, I am no fan of the EU. To me the EU is a nightmare. But I like the Anglo-American-Jewish world even less. All I am saying is that Anglos (directly and indirectly) have ruined the EU and now they are distancing themselves from it. So. don't be too happy. But I agree that it is far from a done deal. I also agree that Germans (and the French) are secretly happy about all this.
DeleteI just hope that one of the unintended consequences of what happened is better relations between Russia and Germany/France.
At the end of the day, our "westernizers" and "democratizers" will use the Brexit vote as a tool to convince our idiots that Armenia also needs "independence" from Russia.
Anyway, today's "Brexit" was more much impressive and definitely more enjoyable. Go Iceland!
LG,
DeleteI am pleased, but keep a few things in mind. First, the City of London was afraid of having to obey EU rules. So some of the banksters may have wanted out, even if they are pretending to want to stay in. Next, the UK could easily gain all kinds of business deals with the developing world that aren't possible with the EU system. The EU/euro has been designed to benefit German industry at the cost of destroying all kinds of other areas. But this kind of predatory system is practically a state of permanent war. Look at Greece. And that makes it a threat to Russia. The idea that only the Anglos are dangerous to Russia is too optimistic in my opinion. Germany is Germany; the arrogance of their elites is insane. I just watched a video of one of their top politicians saying that there is no problem with the elites in regards to the Brexit vote, there is a problem with the people. Of course, one could argue that German elites are trying to provoke things and want Britain and others out of the EU, which is possible. But I think he was just showing old-fashioned German honesty. They are the best, and their elites are the best of the best. Places like Eastern Europe are full of barbarians that need civilizing.
Finally, the US has pretty much had the view since the end of WWII that it would be better to blow up Europe than let it go to Russia. And this brings up the question of a strategy by Moscow to become friends with Berlin. What is their response to America's logical counter-play?
Colonel Cassad discusses the new draft by the Foreign Ministers of Germany and France, which he argues is for the creation of a German-French Empire.
DeleteСупергосударство: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2816792.html
So the other states will be vassal territories. Personally, this always seemed like the logical purpose of the EU to me, and it was just a question of time till they made their move. The big question is how the Anglo-Americans view it.
Any thoughts?
@unintended consequences of what happened is better relations between Russia and Germany/France.
DeleteI agree with you that the Brekshit will have unintended consequences. My impression is that the Referendum was meant to deliver a victory for the EU camp. The surprising result is in reality an expression of the British narcissism, jingoism, xenophobia, boorishness, smugness, football hooliganism sprinkled with stale dreams of the British Empire that still lurks deep beneath the facade. There is a large category in England which thinks in terms like:
"We are the 5th largest worldwide economy, a nation which people from across the world want to migrate to, a nation which invented parliamentary democracy, modern computing, ended slavery and gave women the vote and gays the right to marry?". Or. "We have voted for the chance to join with like-minded nations if we so wish in a formidable trading bloc that would make us into a TRULY great nation once more. There has been talk of a CANZUK union – the most powerful Commonwealth nations of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK all have the Queen as head of state and share common valued... We are all far more affluent nations than most of the EU (Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Croatia anyone?) with shared Judeo-Christian values despite richly different cultures. These similarities would create a bright and dynamic group of independently strong countries working together for their greater good."
Europe should have never admitted UK in the first place. England's involvement in the "Continent's" affairs has been nefarious all along history. No wonder that Germany and France are happy to see them go. They actually urge them to do it without delay. And I hope also that Europe would see more clearly that the "Light comes from the East", and by high-speed trains at that!
Another potential positive aspect of the Brekshit could be (although I won't bet to much on it): "Britain broke free from the European Union because it had become a wellspring of politically correct fanaticism.
Brexit: vote is an escape from EU’s politically correct fanaticism: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/brexit-vote-is-an-escape-from-eus-politically-correct-fanaticism/news-story/b0077f40d2edeb19b6f8c82963957f77
As an aside,
"Azerbaijan considers the status of a dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a first step towards full integration in the organization, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said after the meeting with first-ranked Vice Premier of China Zhang Gaoli...."Azerbaijan is ready to play an important role in transport of goods from China to Europe and back." To do this, he said, the country’s railway system is currently under construction, as well as the largest Caspian sea port, where a free economic zone will be created." @http://tass.ru/en/world/879388. That after "accession of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia and Nepal to the organization as dialogue partners".
https://www.rt.com/news/348562-putin-erdogan-turkey-pilot
ReplyDeleteAre this bad news? How bad?
Ever since Turks shot down the Russian warplane last November, hundreds of Turks have been killed, tens of armored vehicles have been destroyed and a couple of military helicopters have been shot down by Kurdish militants armed with Russian weapons. For the first time ever, Russian made anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft missiles have been introduced into the theater of conflict in south-eastern Turkey. Moreover, Turkey has lost many billions of dollars in revenues due to Russian sanctions.
DeleteTurkey is hurting and Ankara is under a lot of pressure - economically, militarily and politically. Looks like Ankara is admitting defeat and in doing so it is hoping to get some respite. Anyway, this attempt to normalize relations with the Bear is not a surprise. In fact, Ankara signaled its willingness to make peace with Moscow several weeks ago when they unexpectedly announced the arrest of that animal who was responsible for the murder of the Russian pilot.
That said, don't worry too much. Not much will change between Moscow and Ankara. Moscow will continue exacting revenge for the aircraft that was ambushed. Moscow will continue driving Turkish interests out of Syria. The Bear and the Wolf will always compete because they more-or-less live over the same feeding grounds. The two are also very different culturally. This is why Russians and Turks have waged war against each other for centuries. Turks fear and hate Russians. Russians recognize the danger of pan-Turkism perhaps better than us Armenians. Turks and Russians may at times cooperate but they can never be natural allies.
Turks only have one natural ally in this world and that's Jews. Why? Because the two of them have centuries of close/tight relations between them, and also because they both are genocidal/racist people living on land that does not actually belong to them -
Turkey, Israel Trumpet Benefits of Deal to Normalize Relations: http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-israel-trumpet-benefits-of-bilateral-deal-to-normalize-relations-1467042096
Erdogan has apologized for the downed Russian fighter plane. According to press report Russia has issued instructions to lift travel visa requirements; lift the tourism "ban" ; allow turkish construction companies to resume operations in the RF market. This is a complete volta face to RF politics up to now vis a vis turkey. The closeness of relationship between these two has never been propitious for Armenia, nor held any advantages. The RF will look at her interests with Turkey. That does not mean to say Armenia would be sacrificed to higher politics; but it might create a situation where Armenian interests could be compromised . On the other hand what price has the RF exacted from turkey to bring about this reversal in policy ? . On the Syrian scenario RF and Turkey policies appear to be at opposite poles. Appear to be. The fate of Aleppo hangs in the balance. It is difficult to envision the Turks retreating from their goal to grab Aleppo and severe it from Syria. Turkish retreat can only be brought about by the use of overwhelming force, which hitherto has been a missing element from the SAA. The RF view on the putative partition of Syria ( Judaic-Zionist agenda to fracture and splinter Syria) is ambivalent at best and an enigma at worst. Then we have the potential entrenchment of America and the Nato ( of which turkey is an integral part) and boots on the ground in an invasion of Suria to claim the partition slices. This development does seem to bother the RF. The RF keeps talking about " our partners" and cooperation with our "partners", sounds which might be discordant in Assads ears.Isis is alleged to be behind the bombing in Constantinople's airport. Isis is supported by the turks, israel and the Saudis and the Americans . The bombing does no make much sense then. Isis seem to have a proclivity of planting bombs and blowing its victims anywhere they choose to , with one singular and egregious exception; they have never brought any harm to the chosen race, nor to the Saudis. If syria is torn asunder it will constitute be a victory for the Judaics and their cohorts. The Iranians are keeping their counsel. According to press reports, they seem to have had considerable losses in the Alepo cauldron ( or Stalingrad, according to Mr. Putin). It is estimated that 100000 men thrown in by Iran into Aleppo will change the situation on the ground on their favor, if not an outright victory. August is approaching, the month and deadline for the isralei-turk-saudi-american B plan. Does anyone hazards a guess as to what this B plan is, aside from the tremulous call of "Assad must go"?
DeleteRussia ready to lift Turkey tourism ban: https://www.rt.com/business/348877-turkey-russia-restrictions-lift/
DeleteToo soon? They get the Russian tourism back in exchange of what? Retreating from Syria?
We need to stop panicking every time Russians talk to Turks. From an Armenian perspective: Hostile Russian-Turkish relations certainly have their benefits, but so does cordial Russian-Turkish relations. At the very least, cordial Russian-Turkish relations lessen the probability of a major regional war. That said, what's happening between Moscow and Ankara is merely a political game. So, don't worry. Relations between Russia and Turkey will not automatically normalize just because Turks apologized.
DeleteIn politics, instead of paying attention to what's being said by politicians, one should look at what's happening on the ground.
Since the ambush of the Russian warplane, south-eastern Turkey has been turned into a war zone and Turkish populated regions of Syria are now destroyed. Turkish dead (in Syria and Turkey) number in the thousands. Unless some deal has been reached over Syria, the situation on the ground will not change, and even if Moscow officially lifts sanctions, Russians will not be flocking to Turkey on their vacations anymore. Moscow and Ankara are on opposite sides of many regional issues (e.g. Armenia, Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, etc). Russian-Turkish relations will therefore remain chilly despite the reconciliatory words you hear from Moscow and Ankara.
That said, are Armenians becoming a factor in Russian politics? When Russians decide one thing or another concerning Turkey of Azerbaijan, are Armenians impacting their decision making? Is official Yerevan attempting to use the Russian-Armenian community (which numbers well over two million and is the most affluent Armenian diaspora) to try to influence decision making in Moscow?
Of course not. Armenians are too busy kissing Western asses essentially because Armenians think that by doing so they will secure Western support (which will never happen) in case Russia turns against Armenia (will never happen)... and of course make a few dollars in the process (which is the main reason behind "complimentary politics").
I have said this before and I'll say it again: All the flaws that currently exists in the relationship between Russia and Armenia is due to Yerevan's lack of political foresight and because Armenians are generally speaking politically illiterate.
Turkey is an entity set up by the west just like the Ottoman Empire to contain Russia-. As the British mantra goes: "why should we fight Russia ourselves when God created turkey". Post soviet collapse, the west controlled Russian elites were set up to to develop their own enemy - turkey, through tourists, through imports. Economically turkey is reeling after Russian sanctions. The apology is meant for the Russian masses do the west controlled Russian elites go back to building up turkey.
DeleteSkhara,
DeleteI agree with the first half of what you wrote but not so much with the second half. Despite its internal problems, Turkey remains a major nation on the very doorstep of Russia. While Russians have fought Turks for centuries and they continue looking at Turks with distrust, they have also at times, as we have seen in recent years, tried to cooperate with them. Because of its size, strength and location, Turkey will always be a state that Russians will look to work with when deemed feasible. The same can be said about Turks and their view of Russia.
In recent years, Moscow tried to establish close relations with Ankara and Russian political philosophers such as Alexander Dugin have visioned the formation of an anti-Western Russian-Turkish alliance essentially because Erdoghan's government has shown the world that Western powers do not have total control over Turkey. Ankara's refusal to cooperate with US forces invading Iraq in 2003, Ankara's threat to leave NATO and enter a regional union with Russia in the wake of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 and Ankara's hostility towards Israel in recent years has been a rude awakening for Western powers. Because of their dislike of Erdoghan's government, Western powers have also shown that they do not unconditionally support everything Turkey does.
Because of Ankara's above noted "independence" and its problems with the West during the past 10-15 years, Moscow felt/feels (rightly or wrongly) it has a historic opportunity to drive a wedge between Turkey and NATO. Needless to say, we Armenians tend to view this as Russian treachery. We say Turks are fooling Russians again and Armenia will suffer as a consequence.
Armenian objections aside, due to sound geopolitical and economic considerations, Moscow will not waste any opportunity to drive a wedge between Turkey and NATO. With Western powers and Israel growing ever frustrated with Ergoghan's government, I am therefore not surprised that Moscow is still willing to talk to Ankara even after what happened last November. This Russian willingness to talk would make sense especially if the incident involving the Russian warplane last November was instigated by US/Western interests operating inside Turkey as a way of getting Turks and Russians to fight over Syria.
Also, being that it came on the heels of Ankara's attempt at trying to repair its ties with Moscow, I wouldn't be surprised if the latest terror bombing inside Turkey was a warning to Ankara from the West. Anyway, with a nation was large and as powerful as Turkey, Moscow will always be open to talks with Ankara, but it will do so with reservation and caution. At the end of the day, Russians will always see Turks as regional competitors and potential enemies.
Armenians needs to recognize all this and figure out a way to influence it. So, I want to ask again: Is official Yerevan or Armenians in general doing anything to become an recognizable factor in Moscow's policy formulations regarding Turkey and/or Azerbaijan? Or, are Armenians simply hoping that Russia does the right thing with regards to Armenia - as they keep themselves busy kissing Western asses?
Arevordi actually I agree with you wrote, it doesn't contradict what I wrote though. Russia will of coarse talk to the Turks. The difference being acting in the interests of the west (tourists, cheap imports, building the Turks up technologically) vs Russian national interests (carrots and sticks). The notion of Russian bringing turkey into its fold simply means that turkey as it was set up by the west turns into something else. Turkey only exists because the west has historically wanted it to exist to block Russia in the Black Sea, eastern med, the Balkans, and the caucasus
DeleteSkhara, your first comment clearly implied that Russians are once again being fooled by the West into strengthening their Turkish enemy. But as you implied in your second comment, it's not at all like that. You had made similar comments in the past, when you said Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan were purely for economic reasons. Russians arms sales to Azerbaijan has very little to do with money. Russian officials know what they are doing. With a couple of notable exceptions (like the 1920s and the 1990s), Russian officials have historically proven to one of the world's most capable. Let's also not forget that Russia has many millions of citizens to see themselves as Turkic Muslims. This fact alone is enough for ethnic Christian Slavs in Russia to be weary of Turks and Turkey. The following is an interesting WSJ article about this matter -
DeleteTurkey’s Rift With Moscow Frays Ties With Turkic Kin: http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-rift-with-moscow-frays-ties-with-turkic-kin-1466674200
Moscow has to walk a tightrope. Moscow's approach to Turkic Muslims in Russia has to be very nuanced. Moscow has to carefully manage its sizable non-Christian population. They have managed to do this for centuries. And this is why I have always thanked God for Russian aggressiveness. Had ethnic Russians not been arrogant, racist and aggressive, Russia would no doubt be under the control of Turkic Muslims today. This is one of the reasons why Globalism/Liberalism/Westernization would be a death knell for Russia and by extension for Armenia. In my opinion, Russian officials see the dangers of pan-Turkism just as well if not better than us Armenians.
Anyway, Turkey will NOT remain as it currently is outside the Western orbit. That is one of the reason why I would not mind seeing a Russian wedge driven between Turkey and the West. The closer Turkey moves towards Russia, the harder will Anglo-American-Jewish interests pull Turkey from the opposite direction. Turkey will be torn apart in the process. But I have little hope that such a thing will happen. Erdoghan's government will not last forever and whoever comes after it will mostly likely go back to kissing Western asses.
That said, I would like to see us Armenians maturing as a people and doing all we can to influence Russian policy vis-a-vis Turkey (and Azerbaijan).
Ankara could let Russia use its Incirlik airbase to fight ISIS – Turkish FM: https://www.rt.com/news/349413-turkey-russia-incirlik-airbase/
DeleteInteresting development. What are your thoughts on this guys?
Sonofamalek,
DeleteIts surly a Turkish bluff, maybe they are trying to make US jealous. Nothing will happen. Lots of games being played by all the sides, Russians better beware they can't make the same mistake twice. Don't pay too much attention to what they are saying and just look at what they are doing. I think it's all about deciding Syria's future.
Turkey has mended fences with the jewish state, and seeks rapprochement with RF. The reconciliation with the jews is more than understandable for two genocidal states to club together; both have grand designs on redrawing the Sykes-Picot ME configurations. The rapprochement with the RF is complex. In Syria both forces-seemingly- are at opposite ends of strategies and goals. Whereas, we are led to believe, the RF seeks peace and integrity of Syria, turks and jews crave the opposite. The Syrian drama is on for another 3-5 year window; unless the Americans invoke some dramatic change of game plan. The admiral kuznetsov is sailing toward Syrian waters. It has to crisscross the dardanelles. In a situation of armed conflict the Russian navy can become bottled up in the Black sea. Strategically the dardanelles has to be stormed and turks thrown out. It will not make political sense to contemplate a conflict in the mediterranean unless the dardanelle is secured; which brings us to the irreconcilable goals of turks-jews-american-jews and Nato. The turks will not leave Nato, unless Nato leaves them out. What can the RF offer turkey? Peace in their rear. What can turkey offer the RF aside from trade commerce and pimping intrigues? The dardanelles is the key to the RF navy into warm waters of mediterranean. There is much dialogue and forecasts about turkey's dismemberment as a nation. Bizarre maps configurations circulate in the dark net about how the country would break up. Who will benefit from turkeys dismemberment? The Greeks are at their weakest in their entire history from 1820. Their army is denuded of first rank officers and arms. The kurds are an unknown quantity, they resist, they rebel, one bomb here and there but they are having no visible impact in Turkeys fabric. The turk state is not being stunned nor staggered by these bombings. Syria poses no threat whatsoever; on the contrary turkeys expansion will come as an aftermath of Syrias break up as a nation- if that were to happen. Iran will not get involved, the Iranians have to be on their guard against a sneak attack by the jews. As for Armenia , it will be an RF resource to be deployed against turks as the situation deems it. Turkey can be used by the Jews and Nato as a launching pad for terror against the RF, conventional and non conventional. 80m Turks are ideal cannon fodder not to be ignored by the jews and their cohorts. A process of turkish disintegration can keep the ME busy for decades, with the concomitant mammoth refugee invasion of the EU.
DeleteCheck out RT...bombing in istanbul airport.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.rt.com/on-air/
All these terror attacks, including the ones that are said to have taken place in Europe and the US recently, are part of the agenda to draw Western and Turkish forces into Syria. The end game is to partition the country at some point. That is why we see a number of influential Neocons in the US asking -
DeleteIs it Time to Draw a New Map of the Middle East?: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/it-time-draw-new-map-the-middle-east-16740
PS: I have a feel that the airport bombing in Istanbul was in someway also connected to Ankara's apology.
Sometimes you can hit two birds with one stone. Was the airport bombing in Turkey meant to be a punishment for Ankara for it's desire to fix relations with Moscow, as well as a method of creating a pretext for Syria's eventual invasion and partition? It is now being reported that the mastermind of the Ataturk Airport bombing was a "former" Georgian intelligence informant. How many times will we be told that this or that terrorist ringleader was "formerly" connected to Western-backed intelligence agencies or even the US military itself before we the sheeple begin to question the entire Western narrative about the thing called "Islamic" terrorism? -
DeleteMastermind of Istanbul Airport Attack Had Been Georgian Informant: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/01/mastermind-of-istanbul-airport-attack-had-been-georgian-informant-official-says.html
More on the Western/Georgian connection to terrorism -
Russian Official: 'Chechen' IS Warlords Are U.S.-Trained Georgians: http://www.rferl.org/content/is-chechen-warlords-us-trained-georgians/26797888.html
MOSCOW SAYS GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN SUPPORT ISLAMIC REBELS: http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=11895&tx_ttnews[backPid]=213
Yesterday, in a provocative move, a US destroyer came dangerously close to a Russian frigate in the Mediterranean. This all part of the posturing and the tug-of-war that is happening in that region.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqF6EcShwP0
After the brake-up of the Soviet Union, the Mediterranean essentially became a NATO lake with the Russians having only miniscule base in Tartous (Syria) and no ships in the area for most of the time.
Now the Russian navy is permanently patrolling those waters with multiple ships.
By the way, the third brand new Kilo class submarine (Stary Oskol) has just crossed the Bosphorus on its way to Sevastopol (Crimea) where it is going to be based.
http://www.wrk.ru/forums/attachment.php?item=523232
A few articles on the recent pan-Orthodox Council that took place in Crete.
ReplyDeletePan-Orthodox Council: Russian Absence Saves Ecumenical Patriarchate’s Status — for now: http://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/pan-orthodox-council-russias-absence-saves-patriarchate-of-constantinoples/
With Russian Church Absent, New Orthodox Leaders Emerge: http://www.ncregister.com/blog/vgaetan/with-russian-church-absent-new-orthodox-leaders-emerge
Pan-Orthodox Meltdown Ahead of Great Council? (10890): http://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/pan-orthodox-meltdown-ahead-of-great-council/
The Greek Patriarchate in Istanbul is a tool of Turkish/Western intelligence agencies. This is very similar to the Armenian Patriarchate in Istanbul, which as we all know does the bidding of the Turkish MIT. These two Christian Patriarchates would not exist in Turkey had they not been in close communion with Turkish authorities. That said, historically, the main problem with Christian Orthodoxy has been with its "Greek" element. Although the Byzantine Church relinquished its authority to the Russian nation when Constantinople fell back in the 15th century, Greeks never got over the idea that they alone don't represent Christian Orthodoxy. Similar to Jews, Greeks seen themselves as the chosen people. No surprise therefore that the Greek Church has historically looked down at all other churches, including Slavic Orthodox churches. We see typical Greek arrogance and treachery in the way they treat the Armenian Church. The disdain that the Greek Orthodox Church has towards Armenians in general is essentially the reason why Armenians in general feel closer to the Vatican. As far as I'm concerned, Russia is the ONLY leader of Christian Orthodoxy today. Greeks need to get over themselves and get the hell out of the way.
DeleteI would have thought that we'd be past the Greek bashing, but even I am a bit guilty of contributing my own opinion on the issue of the Orthodox council:
Delete*The typical Greek arrogance shown towards other churches, including Slavic Orthodox Churches, was the main reason why Bulgaria nearly adopted Greek Catholicism (which would have brought the Vatican's influence on the doorstep of the Ottoman capital) and the establishment of the Exarchate saved them from making such a change.
*The establishment of the Bulgarian Exarchate had aroused Greek accusations that the Bulgarians were trying to create an 'ethno-nationalist' church with this very act, but before that happened most of the Balkan Christians were under the control of the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople. In fact, Greeks made up of the Phanariote nobility that dominated the Balkans on behalf of their Ottoman overlords, and traditional antipathy towards Greeks were significant among Bulgarians.
Seriously, the Russian Orthodox Church really needs to step up its game and actually act like they've earned the right to influence the other Slavic Orthodox Chruches.
I do not believe the church can play any meaningful role in national politics in our present. Just like the Greek patriarchate in Constantinople it's an agency of foreign interests, so is the Vatican an instrument of western-Jewish interests. The church in Greece is deeply divided, irreconcilably split. The hour is approaching when the Jewish led globalist pseudo Greek government brings about the separation of church and state. The church in Greece is no longer synonymous with the Greek race and nation. In any case the difference causing the schism it's an historical phenomenon of the transition period toward the vanguard of a new atheistic dispensation. The churches will either become nation rooted or will disappear, in time, with the realities of a mongrelized humanity. The demographic death of Christianity, Europid Christianity, is being played out. Cathedrals and churches were built in the Armenian highlands and in Europe, nowhere else. The patriarchates in Constantinople, a historical legacy ,are now mere accessories to the Muslim governments in office.
DeleteEXCELLENT article Zoravar. FYI Ruskies bring down another US drone LOL
ReplyDeletehttp://www.defensetech.org/2016/07/05/air-force-mq-9-reaper-drone-crashed-in-syria/
Jerriko Magpantay,
ReplyDeleteIf your president's for real than it's very good news for you. China and Philippines can be natural allies: https://verizon.yahoo.com/news/philippine-president-blames-us-uk-middle-east-violence-122926665.html
Actually, given the antipathy Filipinos have towards communism and the recent territorial disputes in the Spratlys, I don't share the sentiment at all. However, given also the long screw up of Filipino society in viewing American acts as 'godly', I wouldn't be surprised if a pro-US coup against Duterte takes place simply because Filipino society is thoroughly Americanized.
DeleteWith that aside, I'm afraid that Sino-Philippine relations would be completely one-sided, with China calling the shots. It would be like Austria-Hungary's relations with the Kingdom of Serbia under the Obrenovic dynasty in that the Serbian state at that time is virtually an Austro-Hungarian satellite state. I don't want that fate to befall upon my country. I hate the United States for what they've done to my country, but I also hate Communist China, not only because of ideological reasons, but also because I don't want to see my country become a tributary state of Beijing. Forgive me, but while I'm also a devout Russophile and an Orthodox Christian, I am also a sympathizer of Filipino nationalism. I'm afraid that the geopolitical climate in SE Asia might turn the Philippines into Asia's Ukraine.
So you look at the US like a lesser evil? But I see what you are saying bro, you can get ripped apart between the two giants.
DeleteNot me. A lot of Filipinos see the US as the lesser evil, just like naive Eastern Europeans see the US as the lesser evil against Russia. I also held the US responsible for encouraging the destruction of the Philippines' Hispanic heritage.
DeleteJust by looking at the unholy alliance between Eastern European Russophobes and Jewish neo-cons, I have always emphasized that the only way for Russia to link up with Germany would be to exploit the potential cracks within Eastern European states that might prove to be friendly towards Russia. Hungary may seem to be a suitable candidate, given PM Orban's rhetoric. However, Poland remains the most vicious Eastern European Russophobe and so it might not be suitable. Unfortunately, I have also come to conclusion that Jews are the most vicious global Russophobes ever due to their control of the media and their utilization of those resources to pump out Russophobic propaganda 24-7.
Articles that have caught my attention in recent weeks -
ReplyDeleteWhy is Armenia taking part in NATO’s Warsaw summit?: http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/2555043.html
Expanding NATO-Armenia cooperation to boost Armenia's security - Kenneth Yalowitz: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/853610/expanding-nato-armenia-cooperation-to-boost-armenia’s-security---kenneth-yalowitz.html
Armenia fails to capitalize on Russian sanctions against Turkey: http://arka.am/en/news/economy/armenia_fails_to_capitalize_on_russian_sanctions_against_turkey/
Armenian customs service blocked the import of Russian diesel fuel by a new company: http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27743583.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Do Turkish Tomatoes Travel via Armenia to Russia?: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/78856
Alexander Gusyev: “Iran is building a road through Azerbaijan because of Armenian leadership’s indifference”: http://rusarminfo.ru/alexander-gusyev-iran-is-building-a-road-through-azerbaijan-because-of-armenian-leaderships-indifference/
Could Turkey get closer to Armenia just to anger Russia?: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/could-turkey-get-closer-to-armenia-just-to-anger-russia.aspx?PageID=238&NID=100444&NewsCatID=412
Poll: 17% of Armenians think Russia provoked 4-day war in Karabakh: http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/214692/Poll_17_of_Armenians_think_Russia_provoked_4day_war_in_Karabakh
There’s no partner more reliable than Russia, Armenian Defense Minister says: https://www.armradio.am/en/2016/06/29/theres-no-partner-more-reliable-than-russia-armenian-defense-minister-says/
Commodity turnover between Armenia, Russia exceeds $450 mln: https://www.armradio.am/en/2016/07/08/commodity-turnover-between-armenia-russia-exceeds-450-mln/
Reactions over agreement on Armenia-Russia joint Air Defense system are emotional - RPA MP: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/853403/reactions-over-agreement-on-armenia-russia-joint-air-defense-system-are-emotional-%E2%80%93-says-rpa-mp.html
Ruben Safrastyan: Turkey Faces Serious Geopolitical Defeat: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/851660/turkey-faces-serious-geopolitical-defeat-–-says-ruben-safrastyan.html
Armenian analyst says Russia will not allow resumption of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh: http://arka.am/en/news/politics/armenian_analyst_says_russia_will_now_allow_resumption_of_hostilities_in_nagorno_karabakh/
Ruben Safrastyan: Azerbaijan will not become EaEu member: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/851650/ruben-safrastyan-azerbaijan-will-not-become-eaeu-member.html
Armenian-Turkish reconciliation not in Russia’s interests: http://www.theasian.asia/archives/95442
Deputy Parliament Speaker: In long-term perspective Armenia's place is in CSTO: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/853841/in-long-term-perspective-armenia%E2%80%99s-place-is-in-csto-%E2%80%93-says-deputy-parliament-speaker.html
Articles that have caught my attention in recent weeks -
ReplyDeleteGeorgia Needs Western Help to Stave Off Putin: http://www.newsweek.com/georgia-needs-western-help-stave-putin-478584
Armenia, Georgia Considered South Ossetia as Trade Route to Russia: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79566
Forecast: Seven-month Russian-Turkish confrontation will seem like small potatoes as compared to what is expected: http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=893D35D0-443E-11E6-9B2B0EB7C0D21663
How Kosovo Was Turned Into Fertile Ground for ISIS: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/world/europe/how-the-saudis-turned-kosovo-into-fertile-ground-for-isis.html?ref=world&_r=0
Weighing the pros and cons of NATO policy in the Caucasus: http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/weighing-pros-and-cons-nato-policy-caucasus
Turkey's "Apology" to Russia: More Than Meets the Eye: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/turkeys-apology-russia-more-meets-the-eye-16909?hl=1&noRedirect=1
Why Russia-Turkey Normalization is More Than Meets the Eye: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160710/1042727776/russia-turkey-thaw.html
Breedlove’s war: Emails show ex-NATO general plotting US conflict with Russia : https://www.rt.com/usa/349213-hacked-emails-breedlove-ukraine/
Putin Is Being Pushed to Abandon His Conciliatory Approach to the West and Prepare for War: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/putin-west-war_b_9991162.html?ref=yfp
Harlan Ullman: Is the U.S. planning for a war with Russia?: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Opinion/2016/07/04/Harlan-Ullman-Is-the-US-planning-for-a-war-with-Russia/8161467391620/
Russia building military 'zone of influence': NATO: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-building-military-zone-influence-nato-074649784.html
German foreign minister distances himself from the United States: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/06/21/stei-j21.html
Germany Is Rekindling Its Bromance With Russia: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/07/germany-is-rekindling-its-bromance-with-russia/
Alan Posner: German nationalism can only be contained by a united Europe : https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/german-nationalism-contained-united-europe-brexit-alternative-fur-deutschland
Newsweek: Why Are So Many German Leaders Soft on Putin’s Aggression?: http://www.newsweek.com/why-are-so-many-german-leaders-soft-putin-aggression-472882
Third Rome Rising: The neo-Byzantines believe Moscow will save Christendom: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/third-rome-rising-the-ideologues-calling-new-russian-empire-16748
Below are articles that caught my attention today.
DeleteRussian Foreign Policy: 'We Are Smarter, Stronger and More Determined': http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-putin-foreign-policy-advisor-sergey-karaganov-a-1102629.html?mc_cid=9b4614730e&mc_eid=29dab07fb9
The Russian Threat: NATO Struggles to Recover after Years of Budget Cuts: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-struggles-to-prepare-for-potential-threat-from-russia-a-1093358.html
For Whites Sensing Decline, Donald Trump Unleashes Words of Resistance: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us/politics/donald-trump-white-identity.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&mc_cid=9b4614730e&mc_eid=29dab07fb9&_r=0
I have read commentary on Lavrov's remarks on the peace process , as optimistic and "closer" to an understanding , based on the follow up to the Saint Petersburg talks on Nagorny dispute . We don't know yet what was discussed in St. Petesburg and if any kind of understanding was nuanced. One can speculate on the basis the opposing sides engaged in these talks. It seems implausible that the Azerbaijani would retreat from the premise of territorial integrity as it was mapped out before the collapse of USSR.
ReplyDeleteWhat we are currently seeing is an attempt by Moscow to broker a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Therefore, a hardstand by Baku will inevitably work in Yerevan's favor and Western ass kissing by Yerevan will inevitably work in Baku's favor.
DeleteIn my opinion, both Yerevan and Baku are worried because they both feel that the time is here. Both sides feel they will be forced into making some very difficult decisions, decisions that they know will not be liked by their people. I have no doubt that both Sargsyan and Aliyev would have loved to keep the status quo as is and pass the burden of settling the dispute to the next generation. But the geopolitical climate across the world is gradually changing. A new geopolitical era is upon us. So, this may be the time.
Nothing is "implausible" or set in stone when it comes to geopolitical matters.
In the end, both sides will be expected to concede territory in exchange for peace and normalization. Reminder: Even mighty Israel was forced to cede territory to Egyptians and Palestinians. That said, what lands we give back in exchange for real peace is dependent on the capabilities of our officials and the quality/nature of our relationship with the Russian Bear. In this regard, Baku is in the worst position. Why? Because Azeri officials have raised an entire generation of Azeris to hate Armenians and expect total victory in Artsakh. Therefore, while a land for peace deal may create some pleasant situations in Armenia the same may actually topple Sultan Aliyev and bring in a more hard-lined government in Baku - which is also in Armenia's favor.
Back in the late 1990s, the US had come very close to brokering a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku. The deal in question would have most probably been a variation of the now infamous "Goble Plan". The parliamentary assassinations that took place on October 27, 1999 put a quick and bloody end to it. Thank God. This time around, if the Russian plan is not fully supported by the West, Western powers will most probably try to sabotage the Russian brokered peace deal by appealing to the emotions and sentiment of our "nationalistic" idiots. We already see our "nationalists" acting hysterical.
At the end of the day, I know only one thing about Armenia and the south Caucasus: Another 25 years of what we have already endured during the past 25 years will put Armenia permanently in the third world category and on the edge of being a failed state; the South Caucasus today desperately needs Pax Russica.
Can anyone explain if there was ever a reasonable plan to trade parts of Nakhicevan, say, 60km, for a small path to main part of AZ? It always seemed unsustainable to have two non-contiguous areas of a a country through enemy territory.
DeleteWas the Goble plan far worse than this?
Eurasian,
DeleteIn a nutshell: the Goble Plan (brainchild of Paul Goble, a senior US State Department official) proposed giving recognition to Nagorno Karabakh Republic IF Armenians agreed to give Azerbaijan a ten kilometer wide swath of land along Armenia's border with Iran. The plan was to give NKR to Armenians and connect Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan by cutting Armenia off from Iran. Washington put a lot of effort into this plan during the late 1990s. Official Yerevan seemed to be warming to a variation of this plan when the parliamentary assassinations on October 27, 1999 put an abrupt end to it. Some people, including myself, think the parliamentary assassinations were organized by the Russian GRU -
Some Thoughts on the October 27 Killings in Armenia: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/2010/11/eleven-years-ago-today-gunmen-burst.html
The Goble plan was tantamount to a soft sell out of the struggle. Then we had the Madrid principles, and then the Kazan. The basis for negotiations, compromises, or guarantees , contained in the listed principles are a road to nowhere, leading to a labyrinth of talks about talks and more talks on talks.There are no points of concordance between the parties for a mediator to try and tie these points. Even if land was ceded to Azerbaijan, how would the guarantees, international or otherwise be implemented. When there is no war, and guns are silent, we are in a situation of peace- albeit a fragile one . We already have Pax Rusicana. The region is under Russian hegemony or influence by virtue of her strength and power; even Georgia behaving the way it does can not risk to ignore Russian hegemony in the region. The 4 day " war", rather an Azerbaijan assault came to an abrupt end when his master's voice was heard. What is understood by Peace by either party is unclear from one of the parties, the belligerent and aggressor Azerbaijan is on permanent war footing; or at least that is how they try to posture themselves . What is disturbing is that the Americans are given opportunity to meddle in the region. One would not see Russia meddling in Colombia for a peace agreement between the Colombian government and FARC; which is solely an American affair. In spite of an unusual optimism about the outcome of the current negotiations, it is not clear the form, and shape the birth of the agreement may take. Politically the Alyev clan stands to loose face if any accord is at the expense of renouncing the claims on Karabagh. Alyev has built a strong army, and keeps strengthening its arsenal of weapons. These weapons have to be used, if not against Karabagh then against someone else; or else ket it rust, which is unlikely particularly when they have an excess population they can send to a slaughter house without demur. The challenge is to find a political faction in Azerbaijan,assuming government post Alyev, capable of accepting the inevitability of Karabagh;s independence or its incorporation to Armenia.
DeleteSusian,
DeleteI agree with much of what you are saying... but you are misinterpreting the term "Pax Russica". While Moscow has meticulously positioned itself to become the Caucasus region's main hegemon (although as you noted the US remains a close second), 2 of the southern region's 3 nations are not operating within the Russian orbit. Even Armenia - Russia's only strategic ally in the region - has close dealings with the West. Moreover, there is no "peace" in the region and economic trade is not flowing freely among regional nations. Under a true Pax Russica either all three south Caucasus nations get absorbed into the Russian Federation or all three nations enter fully into Russia's political, economic and military orbit. Pax Russica means all borders in the south Caucasus are open for free trade and there are no military conflicts between them. Even without foreign meddling achieving such a thing is very difficult task. The situation in the region is being made a lot worst by US meddling. I have a feeling that Russians officials have begun putting emphasis on settling the dispute over Artsakh because they think doing so would make the task of bringing Georgia under Russia's fold much easier. Theoretically, a Russian sponsored normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan (i.e. the ending of military hostilities) would be a very major blow for Georgia as well as Turkey and the West.
I long to see all three south Caucasus nations enter fully into the Russian orbit. I long to see Pax Russica in the south Caucasus.
another excellent summary to digest Arevordi & Zoravar..
ReplyDeleteI decided to make a 'video' out of Arevordi's 'Rome and Persia' piece, since it was too long for an ordinary article post. Uploaded it to my FB page, so if any of the readers on here have an account with FB, please share and support
https://www.facebook.com/ArmenianGenocide101/videos/vb.696392357168992/754351531373074/?type=2&theater
Thank you once again, Sean. The topic of political reincarnations and the comparison between Persia versus Rome and Russia versus the West will not be understood or appreciated by most people. I nevertheless liked what you did with the video.
DeleteBtw, what are the names of the musical instrumentals you used?
I don't know the specific names of the tunes, but here is the origin of the first
DeleteLetter of persian king to the calife of arabs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p2cE4bLj_M
^ Also worth watching/reading the presentation itself
Unfortunately I am having difficulty finding the second, it was something along the lines of 'irish-russian traditional folk' :/
I'll make it up though by introducing you to this awesome song I came across last week, this is the remix version, enjoy!
Мы, КОНТРреволюция (remix) Новороссия: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqqhsbF2vWY
^ These guys have plenty of cool other stuff, too
On a different note, a report came out claiming Iranian revolution was staged. Corbett Report recently released this on the subject.
Khomeini Was An American Stooge - Sibel Edmonds on The Corbett Report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FccO5pwq8lA
^ Before anyone points it out, I am aware Sibel Edmonds is a turk journalist who is former FBI or whatever, but Ryan Dawson worked with her before, and I trust Ry (who is extremely anti neocon and anti Z)
.. and finally, this is random too but worth throwing it out there.. I have a friend who strongly insists that the Mullahs in Iran are crypto J3ws (says physical features alone give it away) and that they are 'in on it' .. any thoughts?
Sean, thanks for the music links.
DeleteIt is well known that Khomeini had CIA connections during the 1970s. But, he eventually turned on his handlers. What he did was not unprecedented. Fidel Castro also had close US ties before he also turned against the US. Don't pay too much attention to antisemitic rhetoric by westerners as most of it tends to delve into nonsense. Physical features typically associated to Jews by racist westerners are merely Anatolian features. All Anatolians - Hittites, Hurrians, Armenians, Greeks, Kurds, Assyrians, Persians, modern Turks - have such features. If you want to see some serious "hooked noses" check out some Greek and Persian coins dating back two thousand years. By origin Jews are Anatolian. If you don't believe me read closely their sacred scripture: The Garden of Eden is located in Armenia; after the flood the world gets repopulated from Armenia; their forefather Abraham was a native of Armenia. Proto-Jews were aboriginals of Anatolia. Think of them as fucked-up Armenians.
The "Islamic Revolution" was a "colored revolution" for the removal of the Shah, who was acting increasingly 'erratically'. In other words he was leaning towards Russia and the Iran-Israel 'honeymoon' was exhausting the layers of honey and reaching the shit.
DeleteA few notes, gleaned at random, can make us think twice:
"Beginning in the 1970s, the Shah attempted to find new alliances in the Middle East and beyond. Iran’s relations with the Soviet Union and some of the Arab countries were revisited. A peace agreement with Iraq and the American election of President Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the subsequent harsh criticisms that Carter voiced against the human rights conditions in Iran, led the Shah to develop a more negative view of the State of Israel."
@http://972mag.com/zionism-and-the-shah-on-the-iranian-elites-evolving-perceptions-of-israel/71699/
"On 15 September 1962, the Iranian government declared to the Soviet government in a diplomatic note that Iran “shall not grant any foreign state the right to have missile bases of whatever type on the territory of Iran” and “shall never allow Iran to become an instrument of aggression against the territory of the Soviet Union” (Pravda, 16 September 1962). In the autumn of 1962, Leonid Brezhnev visited Iran, and in 1965 the Shah reciprocated by visiting the Soviet Union. In 1963, for the first time after the war, a major agreement on economic and technical cooperation was signed in Tehran.
"In January 1966, the Soviet-Iranian Agreement of Cooperation in building industrial and other facilities was signed. The Agreement envisaged supplies of gas to the Soviet Union and supplies of machinery and equipment to Iran for the period from 1970 to 1985. For these purposes, the USSR granted a credit to the amount of 200 million rubles for 12 years at an annual interest rate of 2.5%."
"The 1,106 km Trans-Iranian gas pipeline was launched in 1970. Its northern section of 500 km was built by the Soviet side. From the locality of Bid-e Boland, where the head facilities are situated, the pipeline passed along a route to Isfahan, Kāšān, Qom, Tehran, Qazvin, Rašt, Anzali, and Āstārā. From Āstārā, the gas entered the USSR, and in late 1970, supplies of gas to the Trans-Caucasus began. It was Iran’s first export gas pipeline; prior to that the gas had been burnt off as waste. Already in 1972, the export of gas amounted to 8 milliard cubic meters and was on the increase in subsequent years.
"In 1972, a new treaty on developing economic and technical cooperation was signed which envisaged the participation of the USSR in the development of Iranian ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, oil-and-gas and petrochemical industries, irrigation, agriculture, power energy facilities, and grain elevators. Considerable attention was paid to cooperation in the field of personnel training. The treaty was concluded for a period of 15 years with automatic annual renewals for the subsequent five years so long as neither side formally requested its suspension."
"Immediately after the revolution, Iran made an appeal to the UN to denounce clauses 5 and 6 of the Treaty of 1921 and then announced a price rise for the gas supplied to the USSR. The Iranian-Soviet relations also suffered an important setback when the Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan in December 1979. Like the United States, the Soviet Union was also branded and denounced as a “Satan... Because of the disagreement on gas prices, Iran cut off supplies to the gas pipeline in February 1980, even though there was no market for the Iranian gas other than in the Soviet Union."
@http://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/russia-ii-iranian-soviet-relations-1917-1991
Iran was very likely groomed to get involved in Afghanistan and Central Asia, but it did not follow suit. It appears that it was more interested to export the Revolution to Iraq, at that time. Actually, the Iran-Iraq relations were improving during the Shah reign, Saddam expelling Khomeini from Iraq.
Did anyone catch John Kerry publicly refer to Jaish-Al-Islam and Ahrar-al-Sham as "subrougps" of ISIS and Al-Nusra. So he essentially gave information support to the Russian narrative in the media.
ReplyDeleteCould the war in Syria be coming to an end? If Assad is victorious over these 4. That's it. All of Syria pretty much is under Assad's control. The Kurds/SDF would not be in a strong negotiating position and Assad would be able to impose his own agenda.
I agree with much of what you are saying... but you are being too optimistic about Bashar Assad and Syria. Assad's self-confidence and bluster is a tactic. He is trying his best to position himself into the best possible position essentially because he knows that the end of the war is near. He wants the best possible outcome for himself and his Alawites. In the end, however, he will have to bend and he knows it. All the terror activity we are seeing in the Middle East, Europe and in the US in recent weeks/months is meant to draw Western forces into Syria. The nation will eventually be partitioned in some from or another. All sides including Russia, including Iran understand this. Anyway, here is an interesting quote from Bashar Assad's recent NBC interview -
Delete"The reality is telling that, since the beginning of the American airstrikes, the terrorism has been expanding and prevailing," Assad said. "It only shrinked when the Russians intervened."
Syrian president says Russia's support in civil war has 'tipped the scales,' victory months away: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/07/14/Syrian-president-says-Russias-support-in-civil-war-has-tipped-the-scales-victory-months-away/6891468490547/
Coup under way in Turkey...https://www.rt.com/on-air/
ReplyDeleteThank you. I was just about to post this. A military coup in Turkey was inevitable. And before anyone gets overly optimistic or excited, just realize that Turkey's military establishment is more-or-less run by Anglo-American-Jews. The Western world's problems with Turkey in recent years had nothing to do with Turkey per se. The Anglo-American-Jewish alliance simply did not like Erdoghan's increasingly independent and quite belligerent attitude. It is beginning to seem as if the shooting down of the Russian warplane last November was indeed an attempt to get Erdoghan and Putin into a serious conflict. Russia did not take the bait. Instead, Moscow imposed crippling sanctions which seriously hurt Turkey's economy. As Erdoghan pushed for more power, Davutolgu quit. Erdoghan thought he can get himself out of the serious political and economic mess by fixing Turkey's ties with Russia and Israel. Too little, too late. Within days after Erdoghan sent his apology letter to Russia, the Ataturk airport bombing occurred. And now this. Western powers and secular Turks clearly want Erdoghan out of power.
DeleteTurkey Military Coup: http://www.christianpost.com/news/turkey-military-coup-istanbul-ataturk-airport-shut-down-pm-claims-president-erdogan-still-in-charge-166574/
DeleteHelicopter seen shooting state broadcaster’s HQ in Ankara, explosions heard: https://www.rt.com/news/351384-ankara-trt-explosion-army-coup/
DeleteTurkish military declares takeover of country, top officials reportedly taken hostage: https://www.rt.com/news/351343-turkey-coup-military-attempt/
Erdogan Blames Gulenist Network, Calls on Public to Fight in Public Squares: http://sputniknews.com/news/20160716/1043079784/Erdogan-coup-statement.html
Horror in Turkey as F-16 Shoots Down Helicopter, Forces Massacre Civilians: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160716/1043083925/turkey-f16-helicopter-civilians-coup.html
This is too good to be true, like a dream. Let them massacre each other as we watch. Will kurds rise to the occasion? I bet Aliyev is wetting his pants right now. What times we are living in.
DeleteThis is a very good opportunity for Kurds. But knowing how fragmented and disorganized Kurds are, I would be very surprised if they are able to exploit this situation to any significance degree. Watching all this unfold sultan Aliyev must be wetting - and shitting - his pants. He knows that a similar coup can happen in Baku as well. With Turkey in this kind of a mess now, Aliyev will be more manageable for Moscow. This I believe is good for Armenia and for Artsakh.
DeleteThe military coup we are seeing in Turkey can get very nasty if it is not stopped in the next day or two. Both sides, Erdoghan's followers and the country's Western-backed military, are very powerful. I want to remind the reader of something I wrote a couple of week ago -
"The closer Turkey moves towards Russia, the harder will Anglo-American-Jewish interests pull Turkey from the opposite direction. Turkey will be torn apart in the process. But I have little hope that such a thing will happen. Erdoghan's government will not last forever and whoever comes after it will mostly likely go back to kissing Western asses"
What we are seeing in Turkey today is essentially an effort to stop Erdoghan's government from drifting the country too far away from Western interests. Turkey is being torn apart to some degree in the process. In a nutshell: Erdoghan was crazy enough to think Turkey could operate independently and assertively in the world today; Erdoghan was crazy enough to think he could antagonize Anglo-American-Jews and still try to fix relations with Russia.
But a reminder: Turkey is geostrategically very valuable for Anglo-American-Jews. The Western world's problem with Turkey is Erdoghan's government. Western powers will do what they can to oust Erdoghan but they will NEVER abandon Turkey. In a sense, this bloody coup is a Western effort to maintain control over the country. So, Armenians better not get too excited or too optimistic. Turkey's military establishment is not a lesser enemy to Armenia. But, Turkey can indeed suffer a lot of damage in the process of ousting Erdoghan, which is good for the entire region...
RT has had some service interruptions due to heavy volume of users today. Moscow has not yet made an official statement about the coup. I guess one will be made public today. That said, there is now evidence that the coup was indeed a CIA backed plot put together by the US-based Gulen movement -
DeleteMilitary Officer Fired for Gulenist Ties Named as Leader of Turkey's Coup: http://sputniknews.com/news/20160716/1043093391/erdogan-kose-military-coup-gulen.html
What just happened in Turkey does not seem to be a full-scale military takeover. From the looks of it, factions within the military that were anti-Erdoghan and those loyal to Gulen were behind this coup attempt. The next day or two will shed some more light on what just happened.
You can go to liveleak and see disturbing footage of helicopter gunships and tanks mowing down civilians. If they could do this to their own people think what they would do to ours. It is a blessing that we have a Russian military presence in Armenia.
DeleteI am only excited to see them get a taste of their own medicine. Let them have their own little civil war now. Reportedly a fighter jet shot down a helicopter. Now that's pretty awesome. Haven't seen a war like that yet where both sides of the conflict have flying stuff. People in Damascus and Aleppo are said to be celebrating this turn of events.
DeleteThe failed coup is reminiscent of the "Auspicious Incident" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auspicious_Incident). Although the coup was not successful, there are cracks in Turkey. I am not sure how this will play out, but, time is the best truth-teller.
DeleteThe coup was rather short-lived and probably didn't last long. However, the Turkish military is a different animal from the ones that launched coups in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997. This time, they're neutered politically and couldn't operate in a Deep State.
DeleteIt seems the attempted coup has fizzled out. The putchists exhorted the people to remain indoors and not come out on the streets. Dogan appealed to the people to come out onto the streets and defend the regime. The huge crowds obliged. This alleged coup might have been a hoax, a simulated coup to bolster Dogans authority and expose the disgruntled members who oppose his establishment. Dogan said his coup was god send, thanking Allah, to enable him to "sanitize" the military establishment. A very mature and responsible position by Russia for not issuing any official comment on the putch. If a putch is to be successful, one does not start it by firing and mowing down your own people. Also , there is no mention of any names leading the putch.
DeleteI heard that the coup plotters had tried to escape to greece. Here are some articles about that: https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=coup%20plotters%20tried%20to%20escape%20to%20greece
DeleteThe military coup failed. Erdogan is angry at the US:
DeleteTurkish PM: Any country that stands by cleric Gulen will be at war with Turkey:: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-primeminister-gulen-idUSKCN0ZW0K5
article from rt why rt.com streams down:https://www.rt.com/news/351645-rt-massive-ddos-attack/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome
DeleteAlthough he is denying it, Fethullah Gulen, the CIA-backed Islamic cleric who lives in the US, is most probably behind what happened in Turkey yesterday. In my opinion, what we are seeing in Turkey is essentially a show-of-force by the CIA. By having thousands of soldiers inside Turkey take up arms against their leader, Uncle Sam is sendign a message to Erdoghan. The recent terror bombings in Turkey had sent a similar message but that apparently was not enough to scare Erdoghan.
DeleteSome are now saying that the coup was poorly carried-out or that it may have been staged by Erodghan himself. I strongly disagree.
First, the main reasom why the coup did not succeed was because of the limited number of military units were involved. Apparently, most of the other military units either stayed neutral or actively opposed to the coup. This was a very real coup. Many lives were lost and there was extensive damage done to government buildings. Moreover, this was a very well planned coup. Coup plotters had penetrated many political bodies and military units and many thousands of officials, soldiers and military officers were involved in the plot - yet apparently no leaks took place. Erdoghan's government seemed caught off guard. Had it not been for the military units that stayed loyal to Erdoghan and the large masses of people that came out in support of him government, Erdoghan would most probably have been deposed by now.
The coup was well planned and executed but it failed to get full militarily backing and it did not anticipate the kind of support Erdoghan would received by the people.
Facing terror bombings and now a bloody military insurrection, Erdoghan has a choice to make: He can either continue trying to take Turkey further away from Western influence and risk having Turkey be pulled apart in the process or he can swallow his Anatolian pride and be pragmatic and accept his subservience to the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance.
The next few months will reveal his choice. How he reacts to this coup will reveal what direction he wants Turkey to go. Nevertheless and regardless of what Erdoghan does going forward, Turkey is now a broken nation. Serious fissures are appearing throughout Turkish society. There are now serious problems between the country's Kurds, secular/western leaning Turks, conservative/nationalistic Turks and Islamist Turks. The nation of Turkey is gravely ill and the rift between Erdoghan's government and the West is now very deep.
Moscow is clearly sensing an opportunity to drive a wedge between Ankara and the West. This is why Russian officials jumped at the opportunity to reestablish normal relations with Ankara. There is even talk now that the downing of the Russian warplane last November was not the doing of Erdoghan's government. The suggestion is that the incident involving the Russian aircraft was the handiwork of those who were trying to hurt Erdoghan's government. Some of us speculated about this back then. Nevertheless, Moscow will do its best to try to exploit this situation by trying to drive the developing wedge between Ankara and the West even deeper. So expect to hear talks about deals concerning natural gas, trade and Syria. Needless to say, Western powers in turn will be pulling Turkey from the opposite direction.
In the end, Moscow will try but it will not succeed in pulling Turkey out of the Western orbit. Turkey is too deeply involved with the Anglo-American-Jewish world to survive a divorce. Therefore, if Erdoghan does not give in to Western demands, he will risk having his country torn apart.
PS: I must say I'm once again impressed by the political activism and aggressive nationalism of Turks in general. Their president asked them for help, millions of them poured into the streets and stood up against tanks. Many of them gave their lives in the process but they did not waver.
Erdogan is not silent. He is crying and calling to be on guard because another coup is imminent at any time. The Turks are nationalist to the marrow bone; that is why they have survived as a nation state. Anyone visiting turkey ( I personally refuse to set foot there, or even spent a kopeck on Turkish products, or fly with Turkish airlines, which is far more practical , shorter flying hours and cheaper for my regular trips to Europe) would be struck by their cult figure busts, giant posters, portraits being displayed everywhere, flags and more flags combined with his effigy in whichever road you may traveling. Hanging from public buildings to squares , plazas and private homes. Approaching the Aegean coast of turkey by boat, one could discern the coastline by an efregious statue of their cult figure. The Turks are the hounds , or Rottweilers of the Occidental powers. They will use the Turks to cause mayhem and chaos to advance their interests. They are a bestial race. When it comes to their minorities in their midst in this case the largest and more nettlesome Kurds, they'll not hesitate to apply to Kurds the Armenian medicine. There are protests from the West devoid of any muscle, the Turks are eliminating the Kurdish threat in the south east, when are sanctions going to be applied to them ? Never. but that is all,The Turks a have virtually invaded and occupied Germany and other European nations. Their presence is unavoidable from Varna to Narvik. If there is turmoil and upheaval in Turkey, expect a tsunami of Turk "refugees" to flow and pollute the continent. They are also master politicians. Dealing with Turks on the political sphere is cumbersome and soul draining. They are nominally reconquering eastern Thrace from Greece through insidious invasion of Muslims into the area. The Greeks, now champions of multiculturalism, pluralism and decadence do not resist. The Cyprus issue is no longer a case. Talks go on for ever and ever after, but the Turkish army will never leave the occupied part of the island ,unless thrown out by force. Coups may come and go , but it will not change the Turk from being a Turk; mortal enemy of Armenia.
DeleteTurkey says US is 'no friend' for harboring 'coup planner' Gulen: https://www.rt.com/news/351611-turkey-us-friend-coup/
DeleteTurkish Minister Blames US Authorities for Organizing Coup Attempt: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160716/1043134590/turkey-minister-us.html
Erdogan demands from US to extradite Gulen to Ankara: http://tass.ru/en/world/888803
‘Turkey coup plotter’ Gulen: Failed uprising could have been ‘staged’ by Erdogan himself: https://www.rt.com/news/351656-gulen-erdogan-staged-coup-claims/
Claims Emerge that Erdogan Faked his own Coup in order to Wield More Power: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160716/1043138797/erdogan-fake-coup-theater-power.html
Turkish Govt sees US hand in Coup, closes Base: http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/29815/2/
Access to air base housing US nukes in Turkey blocked, power cut off – consulate: https://www.rt.com/news/351606-usa-incirlik-base-turkey-blocked/
The Trouble in Turkey Is Far From Over: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-trouble-turkey-far-over-17008
“Kemalist Turkey is Dead”: https://southfront.org/kemalist-turkey-is-dead/
State Dept Travel Warning for Turkey: High Terror Threat after Failed Coup: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160717/1043143618/kerry-obama-erdogan-coup-terror.html
Turkey's last hope dies: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/07/16/turkeys-last-hope-dies.html
Erdoghan was clearly signalling a new political direction in recent weeks. The direction in question was oriented towards Russia. Apparently, Erdoghan's overtures to Moscow began last may. The killer of the Russian pilot was apprehended by Turkish authorities at the time and talk began soon thereafter that the downing of the Russian warplane last November was the work of anti-Erdoghan interests in the Turkish military. Erdoghan then sent his now famous letter of apology to Moscow in June. Thereafter, Ankara and Moscow quickly began talking about normalization of relations and a number of bilateral deals began to be discussed. Ankara even began signaling a softer stance towards Bashar Assad. This must have greatly agitated Uncle Sam. Pressure was put on Erdoghan's government. Turkey began getting hit by a number of terror bombings, Germany recognized the Armenian Genocide and Davutoglu unexpectedly quit his post. Through it all, a chorus of complaints about Erodghan could be heard throughout the Western press. But Erdoghan remained unfazed and stubbornly pressed ahead with his plans. This is why I believe anti-Erdoghan interests inside Turkey decided to try their luck with a military coup. From their perspective: If the coup succeeded, it would be wonderful; if not, it would sent Erdoghan a stark message. Time will tell what lasting impact if any the failed coup will have on Erdoghan's government.
DeleteIn the days leading to yesterday's military coup, we were seeing the following kinds of articles. Pay particular attention to the pre-coup July 15 article about Alexander Dungin's trip to Turkey -
Turkish press: Putin's advisor: Ties with Turkey will be better than before: http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2016/07/16/putins-advisor-ties-with-turkey-will-be-better-than-before
Western press: President Erdogan’s attitudes to Israel, Russia and Syria have undergone a sudden reset: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702311-president-erdogans-attitudes-israel-russia-and-syria-have-undergone-sudden-reset-turkey
Turkish press: Erdoğan has also used business channels in Russia diplomacy: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-has-also-used-business-channels-in-russia-diplomacy-.aspx?pageID=449&nID=101031&NewsCatID=409
Western press: Syrian rebels stunned as Turkey signals normalisation of Damascus relations: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/13/turkey-pm-greatest-goal-is-to-improve-relations-with-syria-and-iraq
Russian press: Ankara eyes Azerbaijan-Turkey-Russia cooperation format — foreign minister: http://tass.ru/en/world/888418
Turkish press: What can Turkey and Russia achieve in Syria?: http://www.dailysabah.com/columns/ihsan-aktas/2016/07/16/what-can-turkey-and-russia-achieve-in-syria
Russian press: NATO Gets Ill at Ease as Revival of Turkish Stream Looms on the Horizon: http://sputniknews.com/world/20160712/1042808696/nato-russia-turkey-energy.html
Turkish press: Turkey, Russia ties 'to help solve' Karabakh conflict: http://aa.com.tr/en/politics/turkey-russia-ties-to-help-solve-karabakh-conflict/608077
My 2 cents is that the "choban" coup following so closely the Turkish one suggests coordination, however poorly executed. But the whole Turkish tragicomedy made me rather think that it was rather an act of desperation. The volte-face of Erdogan was probably prepared for long in secret. Erdogan had to dissemble for a while, conscious of the conspiracy to unsettle him. Rumors of an impending coup circulated sometime before it happened. The sliding of Turkey towards the Russian camp had to be stopped by any means (most likely the assassination of Erdogan). It is possible also that Erdogan took a gambit and now has free hand to apply a crushing blow to the Gulenistas (and by repercussion to the whole Islamistas network).
DeleteThe anti erdogan strike , regardless of who, where, planned, or engineered it, failed. It proved to be an amateurish plot, gaping holes in the planning, and flawed in its execution. It also proved faulty intelligence was at work. Who was behind it it's purely of academic interest, suffice it to say it was an abysmal failure in its outcome, if the desired outcome was to depose Erdogan. On the other hand one should not dismiss the position that it could have have been a pre trial, before the real coup is delivered. A kind of test run, to assess the real power and strength of the Erdogan government, before the blow to depose him is delivered. For the moment it appears that the sponsors of the coup have been stymied, and Erdogan power base strengthened. Erdogan is proving to be a strongman, he is showing endurance and survivalist instincts which will make him a difficult case to deal with. Talking about complimentary politics, erdogan is a prime example on how to do it at the highest level. He tweaks Americans nose, tweaks Russian noses, does a u turn, seeks reconciliation with Russia, and keeps spinning the yarn with Americans.
DeleteMy opinion is that whoever is the organizer of the coup in Turkey at the top level meant for it to fail. If it was CIA, it either would have worked or it would have been a lot more powerful. That's just my opinion. The fact that it was crushed the very next day, tells me that the participants believed they had a lot more resources to be successful. Some theories say that Erdogan's people are the ones who plotted the coup. Which is possible. He got to weed out his enemies in the military, and struck fear into anyone thinking of participation.
DeleteSkhara, anything is possible, but I don't think the military coup in Turkey was a false flag. Foremost, talk about the coup being a false flag was initially put out by guilty suspect number one, CIA-backed Fetullah Gulen. The accusation was then taken up by Western sources. In other words, the accusation is being made by Erdoghan's enemies. And you (and many other like you) are choosing to believe Erdoghan's enemies' false flag theory simply because you hate him. In my opinion, the military coup was too wide-spread and too violent (and it's still going on) to have been orchestrated by government officials. There is another theory that suggests that Erdoghan's government deliberately turned a blind eye to conspirators planning a coup in order to exploit it for political gain. I don't buy this either. Such a thing could have easily gone out of control. No one, including Erdoghan, would have risked losing their heads merely for political gain. Moreover, the CIA is not infallible or omnipotent. Historically, CIA has failed on many more occasions than it has succeeded. In my opinion, what happened in Turkey was mostly probably a CIA operation that simply did not achieve it's intended objective; which is why Western officials are now panicking.
DeleteWhatever Pyakin says about the Turkish coup is what I'm going to believe :), he is the utltimate authority on what happens in the world and reveals all the worlds secrets. His question-answer session should be out tomorrow.
DeleteI am convinced now completely. Fake coup:
DeleteTurkey's Erdogan cracks down on Gulen movement after abortive coup, widens purge: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-idUSKCN0ZX07S
The revolt completely crushed in the initial hours. 1000s from military and law enforcement purged and arrested. It's not those who were defeated that were the plotters. Sultan Erdogan plotted this himself, and destroyed his opponents in one swift strike. If military wants to seize power, shooting from fighter jets at buildings you should be taking with special forces, and running over and crushing people you want to rule over isn't the best way. In Crimea 100 Russian special forces seized all the peninsula by quickly grabbing the parliament building and airport.
Sefilian (who is in prison), his gang and cohorts have found nothing better to do than stage a " mini coup" by storming a bloc, killing one person and holding hostages. They are insane. What are they trying to play, pokemon? These band of compatriots need to be rounded up and have a brain scan. This is a very poor showing, this kind of adventurism by a small clique is sheer infantilism.
ReplyDeleteThis "choban" coup in Armenia is coming on the heals of the US-backed military coup in Turkey. Being that Sefilian and his followers are funded by US/European intelligence agencies, it's not a stretch of the imagination to conclude that this criminal act was also sanctioned by Western intelligence agencies. I have repeatedly warned that Western powers will use our "nationalists" to drive a wedge between Yerevan and Moscow and derail Russia's agenda in Artsakh. As much as I hate to say this, Armenian nationalism today is one of Armenia's enemies. All members of Founding Parliament, New Armenia and Paruyr Hayrikian and his zombies need to be rounded up and put away.
DeleteThat said, this criminal act carried out by a bunch of lunatics with assault rifles brings into question Armenia's security apparatus. The police facility the criminals took control of is not a regular police station. The facility in question also houses interior ministry troops. Yet, there was very little security at this facility. Moreover, how could an important facility such as this be nestled between houses in a poor neighborhood? Moreover, associates of the armed criminals who did not participate in this act are continuing to operate freely and their social media accounts are being not blocked. These kinds of things are indicators of a backward society and incompetent government.
In the big picture, I blame Armenia's incompetent and corrupt authorities for the overall situation the country is in. Their incompetence, corruption and "complimentary politics" has allowed things to get to this point. These Western-financed criminals have for years been saying they will resort to violence if their demands are not met. Why hadn't they been arrested before? Why were they allowed freedom of operation for the past few years? President Sargsgyan is too weak. Armenia is not being managed properly. The country is sinking deeper and deeper into a third world existence. The country wont survive another 25 years of what it has been through for the previous 25 years.
Just to let everyone know, our fellow Armenians are doing everything to make people join the "rebellion". They are using Facebook mainly. So far it is not working. But just the fact that we have people out there who are calling for an armed revolt is an act treason!! Disgusting.
DeleteThis is amazing. These guys have been saying they will do this for two years, for the life of me can't understand why they were not put in jail before this. A police officer is dead now. I say storm the building and kill these people, if you cant do it call in the Alpha group from Russia they'll gladly do it. Arevordi, I am with you 1000% what kind of a police headquarters is this?
DeleteYou called it Arevordi, these are the "nationalists" being used by the West to derail negotiations. I just want to add this Nikol Pashinyan video for context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7WDjp_TG1c
DeleteIt is a PFA/Manoogian movement. Those guys are going nuts on facebook!!! What would be totally awesome is if the Armenian government asked the US to extradite PFA/Shahan Natalie members the same way Erdogan is asking for Gulen.
DeleteOn a serious note, with respect to the attempted coup in Turkey, why didnt NATO members react when Erdogan looked like he was out? What happens to the nukes at Incirlik? How does this change the dynamic of terrorists supported by Turkey - is that past tense, and will those terrorists now seek revenge on Turks? What happens to Turks stealing Arab oil in Northern Syria/Iraq, which was headed to Israel? Does this create an excuse for Americans to start militarizing the Black Sea more in order to protect Romania?
Boghos,
DeleteI don't think that the PFA or Ara Manoogian are directly involved in any of this, but they are a fundamental part of this group's support system. All these types of groups in Armenia are controlled directly and indirectly by Western intelligence services through a network agents operating in the country. Raffi Hovannisian's people also fall into this category. Today's ASALA, which seems to be operating under French intelligence, is also part of this equation. And let's not forget all the heads of all the Western-financed propaganda outlets and NGOs currently operating in Armenia. They are also trying to foment a revolution.
It's a Western agenda. The agenda is meant to drive a wedge between Armenia and Russia and derail any Russian-brokered peace settlement in Artsakh. Predictably, Western intelligence operatives are exploiting our "nationalists". They are making a play on our sheepl'e sentiments and emotions. They will not succeed for two very fundamental reasons: 1) Armenian are by-nature apolitical. 2) Armenians have very strong survival instincts. These two traits will not allows Armenians to get into risky political adventures like the one Ukrainians got themselves into.
Armenian political apathy and survival instincts will keep the Armenian masses disengaged and Western powers disappointed.
In my opinion, Founding Parliament lunatics blew their load prematurely. This was premature ejaculation by them. There took up arms against their state and killed an innocent policeman in the process not because the Armenian government was pulling back from the "five territories" but because of RUMORS that Armenian government was going to do so. They carried-out this act not knowing that the Armenian people would take to the streets in their support but because they HOPED that the Armenian people would do so.
These people are arrogant, self-righteous, hateful, emotional, Russohobic, short-sighted, ignorant and to a significant extent, psychotic. A lot of them actually exhibit traits commonly associated with cult members. Anyway, if Armenian authorities do not take this as an opportunity to severely crackdown on members of these types of groups (and kill if necessary), Armenia no longer deserves to be called a nation-state.
PS: The CIA-backed Fetullah Gulen's organization is a very serious global movement. "Shahan Natalie" activists can be counted one's fingers, and they are mostly a bunch of sissies. These is much that we don't know about the failed military coup in Turkey. We will most probably never know all the details. But I am pretty sure that the nuclear warheads in question were secured by US and Turkish special forces. As far as geopolitical consequences are concerned: We will seen the coup's repercussions in the coming months. Right now, US-Turkish relations are in shambles. But let me remind you again that Uncle Sam's problem with Turkey is NOT with the nation of Turkey (which continues to have great geostrateigc value for Western powers) but with Erdoghan's independent and increasingly belligerent government.
I have already expressed by dismay at how could an important police facility such as the one that was taken over yesterday have so little security system. I have been desperately searching/looking to see if there is any degree of professionalism on behalf of Armenia's security agencies. Thus far, I'm simply embarrassed at what I'm seeing. Two little examples taken from CIA Radio -
DeleteԵրևանում, Գյումրիում, Վանաձորում քաղաքացիների են բերման ենթարկվել: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSLxTv-3pU4
Խորենացի փողոցից բերման ենթարկվողների թիվն աճում է: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-IuQFv4clU
The indecisiveness of Armenian officials and incompetence of Armenia's security services is glaringly evident. In a normal nation, the criminals who took over the police facility and murdered a police officer in the process would have been neutralized by now. In a normal nation, riot police would quickly put to end any unsanctioned street protest. In a normal nation, all social media networks that activists are using to organize themselves would be taken down. In a normal nation, all known foreign-funded activists (the are all known by the NSS) would have been placed in jail indefinitely. But this is not a normal nation, this is Armenia. Armenia is a country where police and protestors fight and argue with each other. This is a country where foreign-funded anti-government activists are allowed to roam free. This is a country where rumor and gossip reigns supreme.
It is glaringly obvious that security officials in Yerevan do not know what they are doing. It is also glaringly obvious that the country's law enforcement agencies have terrible operating procedures. In my opinion, security guards in a typical American mall have better standard operating procedures than Armenia's national police. Watching the interaction between police and protestors in Armenia feels like watching the interaction between members of a seriously dysfunctional family. Armenia is more like a society of troubled/problematic people than a serious nation-state with responsible citizens.
I want to reiterate: Ultimately, this criminal act by a bunch of lunatics is meant to drive a wedge between Yerevan and Moscow and derail ongoing negotiations over Artsakh. This criminal act was also based on lies, rumors, gossip, innuendos and mere speculation. Armenia's self-destructive peasantry is once again burning down its village in an attempt to save it from imaginary monsters.
PS: There may be a silver lining in all this: Regardless of its outcome, this incident can potentially benefit the Armenian side during negotiations.
Speaking of official Yerevan's incompetence, how can criminals who have just taken over a police facility and reportedly murdered a policeman in the process be allowed to post propaganda on social media? -
DeleteՍասնա Ծռեր: https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/սասնածռեր?source=feed_text&story_id=974480349316151
And here we see CIA Radio deliberately gathering a bunch of alcoholics, drug addicts and idiots in an attempt to convey a sense of crisis. CIA Radio is clearly trying to incite unrest, but they continue to operate unhindered essentially because official Yerevan wants to keep playing the game of complimentary politics -
Ցուցարարները կոչ են անում կանխել արյունահեղությունը: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U995oz2AtyE
Finally, Ambassador Arman Navasardyan made some interesting comments today -
Ambassador Navasardyan: Spreading Disinformation Over Surrendering Territories is Political Bluff: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/854558/ambassador-navasardyan-%E2%80%93-spreading-disinformation-over-surrendering-territories-is-political-bluff.html
It is ridiculous that we are entering a third day of stand off with this criminally band of insane amateur terrorists.The security apparatus apparently has failed, were caught napping or it is too lax and inept; or it simply does not meet the country's security standards. One shudders to think what the consequences would be if they were real terrorists. It is hoped the police has the situation under control, and managing the timelines to subdue the criminal band. It does not do any good to the country's image.These dissidents are not nationalists, these are bandits . They are holding hostages in order to secure Sefilian's release from jail. We trust when they apprehended they are dealt with the full force of the criminal law.
DeleteOur Western propagandists are trying to convince us that what is happening in Armenia is a struggle for democracy and the rule of law. Bullshit. Had they been concerned about such things, foreign-funded subversive groups like Founding Parliament would have instead formed vigilante groups and gone after Armenia's dreaded oligarchs. It's been 25 years and not a single one of Armenia's oligarchs have been harmed by any of these anti-corruption crusaders. What is happening today is purely a political act. Founding Parliaments task from day one has been to foment a Ukraine style uprising in Armenia and drive a wedge between Yerevan and Moscow. Today, they have been called upon to derail negotiations over Artsakh. Think of it this way: 17 years ago Russian intelligence services put an abrupt end to the US-led negotiations process. Today, US intelligence services are trying to do the same to the Russian effort.
DeleteArmenians are too emotional, too hormonal, too clannish, too materialistic, too arrogant, too ambitious, too self-righteous, too proud and too politically ignorant to be responsible government officials or citizens. People like us Armenians can ONLY be ruled by a powerful ruler with an iron hand. The reason why we Armenians have not had a nation to be proud of for nearly two thousand years is precisely because we have not had powerful leaders. President Serj Sargsyan is merely the latest in a long line of weak and incompetent Armenian leaders. I cannot think of a nation on earth where average citizens can argue with, insult and sometimes assault police officers and do not in turn get beaten up, arrested or shot dead -
Բախում Սարի թաղում: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TSVp9ppB28
Կրակոցներ ՊՊԾ գնդի տարածքից, լարված իրավիճակ Խորենացի փողոցում: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBf1-x4aTnQ
Is Armenia a nation-state or is it merely lawless territory were emotionally unstable people live? No other normal nation on earth would have tolerated this kind of unruliness and criminal behavior by its citizens. In my opinion, officials waited long enough. In fact, had law enforcement bodies ended this stand-off on the very first day, the situation would not have gotten to this point. Official Yerevan's indecisiveness and incompetence has created this situation. Security forces have to neutralize the criminals who took over the police facility and killed a police officer. If Armenian officials don't have the balls, they should summon Russia's Alpha Group to end this nonsense. If Armenia is to be considered a real nation-state, Armenian law enforcement officials have to end this crisis sooner than later, one way or another. I therefore fully agree with the sentiments of Alexander Iskandaryan -
Եթե այլ ճանապարհ չլինի, պետք է գրոհի անցնել. Ալեքսանդր Իսկանդարյան: http://www.aysor.am/am/news/2016/07/19/%D4%B1%D5%AC%D5%A5%D6%84%D5%BD%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D6%80-%D4%BB%D5%BD%D5%AF%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%B5%D5%A1%D5%B6/1114029
So how will the siege end in Yerevan?
Delete1. Morons give up arms and hand themselves in?
2. Special forces go in and bring everything into order ( with deaths)
3. Serzh resigns
I think if option 2 is selected and people die...this can lead to very bad things.
I don not think this shit show has legs. I think this foolishness will end and nothing will come from it. It is easy to pay a few hundred dollars to a few hundred idiots willing to make a mess, it is another thing having followers like in Maiden. Things are grinding to a halt economically. What my guess is that there needs to be more crazy stuff to keep happening in order to keep the markets at a tandem level, but this level is going to break no matter how many fires are set. Believe me Armenia is the last thing on their minds right now. This Turkey thing is very nice, I don't think the global powers that be like this Erdogan stunt. Will see how this shakes out but Armenia I am not worried about as these idiots are paid by someone, whomever these people are need to be published! Enough of this Hide and Go Seek bull, let us level the field a bit.
DeleteNow there are unruly crowds gathered in the vicinity and challenging the police security. There are rough youngsters, covering their faces with masks or balaclavas and pelting police with what seems to be stones. It's a disgrace an unbecoming behaviour of Armenians. What kind of protestors are these youngsters covering their faces ? Rowdyism , undisciplined undesirables, possibly unemployed digruntled youths. There was also the proverbial Postanjian showing arguing vehemently with police. What was she screaming about, it was not audible. The authorities have to assert themselves, it can not go on like this; it runs the risk of getting out of control with unforseen consequences. One thing is for certain, The Karabagh talks are dead under these conditions. The false rumors spread about Armenia planning to cede 5 regions in exchange for a durable truce. The rumor mongers have achieved their objective, if it was to kill the fantasy and farcical talks on Karabakh. How hard is it to reason with these men to abandon their forlorn mission? They are banking on a popular outburst of support leading to a rebellion. If the police can not storm the headquarters and put an end to the siege, then the army special unit needs to intervene. No one wants a bloody end to this enterprise.
DeleteCoup in Armenia now?
DeleteScores injured in Armenia clashes as police station hostage crisis continues in capital: https://www.rt.com/news/352334-yerevan-police-clashes-hostage/
These is no coup in Armenia. The Armenian street may not like their government but they are not interesting in a revolution. The trouble makers you see on the streets are a few hundred hooligans and professional provocateurs. Finally, law enforcement authorities acted like law enforcement authorities last night. But the ongoing standoff still has to end - one way or another. At the end of the day, all this may prove to be a blessing in disguise. Everyone - including Armenian officials, Russians, Americans and Azeris - have gotten a little taste of what can happen if official Yerevan is even perceived as being too giving in terms of land concessions. I believe (I hope) this crisis will give Armenian officials an upper hand during negotiations.
DeleteToday's news media is ripe with boy beheading stories by "moderate us backed opposition". This is creating the information sphere for the the western public and a way out for the politicians who have been screaming for Assad removal.
ReplyDeleteTurkey has been knocked out of this game. Now the western globalist serving media outlets are showing "rebels" as child murderers, while US national elites media make excuses. The end of the "rebels" is coming. Next will be unleashed hell.
Incidentally, exactly how along what lines would Syria be partitioned?
Pyakin had a lot of very interesting things to say about events in the past week. He spoke about the coup attempt in Turkey. He presents that the US national elites were long preparing a coup, and all the elements were in place. But the instigation was by the global elites over Erdogan who decided to stabilize Erdogan in the short term. This deal they discussed with Putin and started off with Erdogans apology. US national elites and their puppets are panicking because as a result of this staged coup, the pro-American element with Turkish military is getting purged. Incidentally, he points out that the cleric Gulen is actually a globalist project and forces loyal to Gulen are and will remain all over the turkish military.
ReplyDeleteAnother very interesting thing, after the shoot-down of the helicopter where Russian pilots were killed (claimed by ISIS), there was a massive strategic bomber strike T-22s (Ziad called it 'tactical nukes dropped'). The very next day Steinmeir declares that there needs to be an end to all fighting. And on July 14th a follow-up.bIn the media those were strikes against "previously unknown" ISIS camps, in reality these were strikes againts US training camps where their special forces sit (those sites that Americans asked the Russian's to stay away from).
According to Pyakin the shooting down of the helicopter was crossing of the red line, and political will was demonstrated to the US national elites.
«Вопрос — Ответ» от 18 июля 2016 г.: https://fct-altai.ru
Articles discussing coup attempt in turkey:
DeleteBehind the CIA's Desperate Turkey Coup Attempt: http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/behind-cias-desperate-turkey-coup-attempt/ri15684
Hell Hath No Fury Like a Teflon Sultan: http://thesaker.is/hell-hath-no-fury-like-a-teflon-sultan-pepe-escpbar-on-turkey-coup/
Top Turkish Journalist Cengiz Candar Suggests Coup was a Hoax, Quotes Andrew Anglin: http://www.dailystormer.com/top-turkish-journalist-cengiz-candar-suggests-coup-was-a-hoax-quotes-andrew-anglin/
The global elite (primarily European old money) has gradually been turning against their favorite bastard child, USA. But this elite (the source of global warming, multiculturalism, interracialism, atheism, feminism and homosexuality) is just as dangerous if not more dangerous than American cowboys in Washington. So, while I am happy they are not fully backing US hegemonic agendas around the world, they themselves have to be checked as well.
DeleteAnyway, talk about this being a fake coup was first put out by Erdoghan's public enemy number one, Gulen. It was then picked up and disseminated by Western media and has since been used as psy-ops against Erdoghan's government. And the accusation stuck simply because Erdoghan has in the past orchestrated things for his benefit and because many people around the world (including Westerners) hate him.
A Turkey of a Coup: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2016/07/a-turkey-of-coup.html#more
They have turned against the bastard child. The US according their plan is to go through a reformation akin to the USSR. They are indeed very dangerous, but they are much more knowledgeable and visionary - they won't blow the world up, because they themselves don't want to burn up in the fire. "The cowboys" don't know any better.
DeleteSkhara, what made the American empire particularly dangerous was the support it had been receiving by Globalists. The US was the vehicle Globalists used to spread their "vision" around the world in the post war era. Globalists are the ones that destroyed the Russian Empire. Globalists are the ones that destroyed the Soviet Union. Now that the US has gotten too powerful, too fat, too arrogant and politically too sloppy, Globalists are trying to cull it. They only want to downsize the US. They will therefore not destroy the US. Why? Because they have a lot of investments in the US and a lot of them live in the US. Moreover, they still need the US as their vehicle. Globalists are very dangerous because you don't see them and you don't hear them - but they are everywhere. Globalists are also very dangerous because of their vision. Interracialism, multiculturalism, feminism, homosexuality and atheism (i.e. liberalism) is the biggest threat to the world. GMOs and global warming are also their agenda. I think Globalists are more dangerous precisely because of their knowledge and vision. I know you hate the American empire. But don't allow your hate of the US make you love something that is just as bad if not worst.
DeleteAnyway, I think you will find the following Wall Street Journal article interesting. It may be connected to the US run base that was bombed by the Russian air force -
Russia Bombed Base in Syria Used by U.S. and British Special Forces: http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-strikes-on-remote-syria-garrison-alarm-u-s-1469137231
Well I agree with all that you said. I guess the difference in my understanding is a foe that that one respects and can negotiate with. While the other one is a gorilla with a grenade.
DeleteIf you seek and continuously gain knowledge, you have a good chance at defending your interest. But a gorilla with a grenade just creates too much uncertainty.
I think that no less interesting is the case of the Hezbollah's drone which "entered Israeli airspace over the central Golan Heights on Sunday afternoon. The air force unsuccessfully tried to intercept it three times, firing two Patriot missiles from a battery located in the north, and then scrambling fighter jets to shoot it down with an air-to-air missile... The Israel Defense Forces did not provide information on the type of drone involved or who was behind it. The UAV eventually turned and went into Syria, the army believes."
Deleteread more: http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.731791
Was that another warning, like the strikes on the "remote" garrisons, which WJ admitted that were 'secret bases' of the CIA (there were two strikes, one on 16 June and the second on 16 July)? The drone episode occurred on the 17th!
I get all the Globalist shit, I get the Cowboy shit. What I don't think anyone gets is the human element. Sure they have the press, and they can click a few clicks of a mouse and make a riot someplace but they can't fully control events. They my wish too, they may think they can but they can't. This thing is getting unhinged. This is not 1916 any more, where you can make a mess an people don't find out for 100 years later. Things are going to get ugly, but don't fool yourself into thinking that there is some order to this. Sure there is a hands in play, but if you think that common street is awake, wait till you see them start to stab on another, elite on elite. You do not create a vampire system and expect a good controlled end game, it is not going to end well. The Multiculturists only wanted it so they can get cheap labor, robots are the next cheap labor. You don't kneed a guy makings socks in some 3rd world country any more even those days are gone. Something to think about as the very technology has changed the game.
DeleteThe globalists were the victors in 1945. The internationalist Kabala. Their base of operations is spread around the globe, but the main centers are now the USA--EU-Tel-Aviv. The international Kabala., hidden behind the scenes and disguised with the attire of humanism, freedom,fraternity, democracy , one world, and other epithets of modernity . The end goal is one; however there are distinct approaches on their drive toward their goal, which causes dissension and splits within the Kabalist international.
Deletewhy don't those s300s knock them out of the skies for once! Inch uzum anum en without a slap on the wrist. Obviously, we all saw this coming, after the continuous false flags in France and Belgium, the deliberate orchestrated refugee crises, and Jewry asking jews in france to return to Israel (Eretz Yisrael in mind) for 'safety reasons'. How does someone NOT connect the dots by now.. Are they deliberately pushing Syria's and Russia's buttons to finally respond, thus bringing on the new world war which they salivate for? How much more patience can the resistance have and tolerate this? The problem is clearly NEVER going away, especially since nobody confronts it (Israel/Yinon Plan, Clean Break, PNAC)
ReplyDeletehttp://presstv.com/Detail/2016/07/20/476145/Iran-Syria-Bahram-Qassemi-Manbij-Aleppo-France-US-Daesh
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/french-air-force-avenges-nice-massacre-kills-100-civilians-pictures/
http://presstv.com/Detail/2016/07/20/476174/syria-us-ashton-carter-daesh-coalition
http://presstv.com/Detail/2016/07/21/476249/Activists-USled-airstrikes-civilians-deaths-Manbij
http://presstv.com/Detail/2016/07/21/476256/UN-children-Syria-US
https://www.rt.com/news/352255-france-syria-civilians-dead/
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/352283-syria-us-france-bombing/
https://www.rt.com/news/352542-syrian-opposition-us-strikes/
S-300 will remain idle because there is lot more communication and cooperation between Russia and Western powers than we are led to believe. I believe Syria's future has been decided for the most part. Once more: Syria will be partitioned in some manner. The terrorism outbreak in the Middle East, Europe and the US is meant to force reluctant powers into sending troops into Syria. Also, Turkey, which had been a wildcard, has been knocked out of the equation. We are getting near the final chapter in Syria.
DeleteArevordi,
DeleteDo you also feel that Turkey's future has been decided? What about Iran's? Is there some new map that enough elite factions have agreed on that it cannot be stopped? Also, would the election of Trump matter?
Eurasian,
DeleteTurkey's future is very far from being decided. Turkey has become an independent player in the region, especially now that Erdoghan's government has defeated the coup. Consequently, Turkey is truly becoming a regional wildcard.
Unlike Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's game nearly one hundred years ago, when he fooled the Bolsheviks into thinking he was contemplating an alliance with them, Ankara's current desire to break out of the Western orbit and into a closer friendship with Russia is very genuine. I am now convinced that the downing of the Russian warplane was essentially an attack on Erdoghan's government. Those who planned the ambush last November wanted to embroil Erdoghan and Putin into a shooting war. Putin did not take the bait. For his part, Erdoghan began efforts to fix the problem by reaching out to Russia using back channels. Disagreements over Syria also seem to be resolved. Turkey will therefore play a lesser political role in the conflict.
All in all, Turkey may have finally begun its journey away from Western powers. It's going to be a perilous journey. The country runs the risk of begin torn apart because as I have said, Western powers still control a lot of assets inside the country and also because the West will respond by giving Kurds more power.
Turkey therefore runs the risk of begin torn apart if it breaks its ties with Western powers. But it is beginning to seem like Erdoghan's government is willing to take that chance.
In the big picture, this all is a good development for Armenia. Allow me to explain: Turkey's problems with Western powers can have two outcomes. 1) Turkey may become a weaker nation with serious internal and external problems. 2) Turkey and Russia will enter into a close alliance.
Needless to say, a weaker Turkish is fully in our interests. However, good Russian-Turkish relations can also be in our interests and should therefore not scare us. Russia will never in a million years "sell" Armenia to Turks. Russia will never in a million years trust Turkey. Good Russian-Turkish relations simply means good regional economic cooperation, less military tension and the expulsion of Western trouble makers from the region.
PS: You know as well as I know that presidential elections in the US has little bearing on political policy, especially when it comes to foreign affairs - unless there is an internal revolt/revolution brewing inside Washington, which I highly doubt.
Also the move of shutting down Western propaganda, I mean education. So Turkey is no longer going to take the subverted control that propaganda, I mean education has become. I don't like Erdo, or Turks, but they seem to know the score that the Europeans and Christians in general have forgotten. The bottom line is the West has become a cesspool. The policies work for 2 weeks at best and another lie has to be told. Some other stupid shit has to go down, markets move bla bla. It has become a boring place, where new ideas do not get created; instead pieces of paper are sold back and forth on markets based on yesterdays accomplishments. Only thing keeping the West afloat is the Dollar. So many have this money in their pockets, so many know this is worth less and less. Yet no one wants to rock the boat, at least not just yet.
DeleteWhat do you guys think of a possible civil war in Turkey after the attempted coup against Erdogan's government failed? It seems that it's not only the Kurds that the Turkish government has a problem with. The Alevis are also a major source of tension within Turkish society, and the bad blood between Sunni Turks and what is basically Shia Alevis have been in existence since the time of Yavuz Sultan Selim.
Deletecouple of articles from friends at fort-russ covering the events in Erevan:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/the-us-wages-hybrid-war-in-armenia.html
&
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/armenia-demonstrators-surround-police.html
.. facebook members please spread/support facebook.com/armeniangenocide101
^ made more posts from recent comments on here :]
I fully agree with the article's proposition, namely that the US wants to sabotage the Russian led peace effort. On July 12 I wrote the following comment:
Delete"Back in the late 1990s, the US had come very close to brokering a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku. The deal in question would have most probably been a variation of the now infamous "Goble Plan". The parliamentary assassinations that took place on October 27, 1999 put a quick and bloody end to it. Thank God. This time around, if the Russian plan is not fully supported by the West, Western powers will most probably try to sabotage the Russian brokered peace deal by appealing to the emotions and sentiment of our "nationalistic" idiots. We already see our "nationalists" acting hysterical."
All their noble rhetoric and stated goals are merely a smokescreen. Founding Parliament's main task from day one has been to foment a Ukraine style uprising in Armenia and in doing so drive a wedge between Yerevan and Moscow. It also seems like they have also been called upon to derail the Russian led negotiations over Artsakh. 17 years ago Russian intelligence services put an abrupt end to the US-led negotiations process. Today, US intelligence services are trying to do the same to the Russian effort...
Armenia gunmen release all remaining hostages
ReplyDeletehttp://presstv.com/Detail/2016/07/23/476558/Armenia-hostage-standoff
Hostage takers release last 2 police officers in Armenia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZMO6-AkkmE
The armed group of extremists released the remaining hostages a day after President Sargsyan went on television to address the matter. There is talk that Armenia's NSS had also gotten more involved during the last two days. Everyone associated with the group was arrested during the last two days. Moreover, their much anticipated popular uprising never materialized. Moreover, the group keeps claiming that Russia's Alpha Group has been on sight in Yerevan waiting orders to assault the occupied police facility. Whatever the case may be, the extremists are now all of a sudden seeking a way out of the terrible mess they created. They said they will abandon their political demands and lay down their arms only if their wonderful leader Jirair Sefilian commands them to. I guess the NSS is now working on Jirair Sefilian. It seems like this armed rebellion by a small group of foreign funded Russophobic extremists is going to fizzle out soon, unless their foreign handlers have something else in mind.
DeleteAs we have surmised, sectors where Azerbaijan has achieved a qualitative advantage over Armenia are connected to purchases from Israel. The following is a very good military assessment of the four day war -
ReplyDeleteA Frozen War in Russia's Backyard Heats Up: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/frozen-war-russias-backyard-heats-17085
Yet another brilliant and timely article by Monte Melkonian's brother Markar Melkonian -
ReplyDeleteYerevan Standoff: Is Khorenatsi Street a Dead End?: http://hetq.am/eng/news/69398/yerevan-standoff-is-khorenatsi-street-a-dead-end.html
Articles from Fort Russ and from Alexander Dugin's think tank -
ReplyDeleteSu-24 incident: trace of Gülen and CIA: http://katehon.com/article/su-24-incident-trace-gulen-and-cia
The coup d’état was against Kemalists: http://katehon.com/news/turkish-writer-who-caught-erdogan-lying-found-dead
Dugin on the Coup d' État In Turkey: Russia and Kemalists played a major role: http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/russia-and-kemalists-played-major-role.html
Dugin: "Our goal is the liberation of Turkey from American influence; Armenia is our greatest ally": http://www.fort-russ.com/2015/11/dugin-our-goal-is-liberation-of-turkey.html
The US wages hybrid war in Armenia: http://katehon.com/article/us-wages-hybrid-war-armenia
Who is behind the US Hybrid war in Armenia?: http://katehon.com/article/who-behind-us-hybrid-war-armenia
No no no - Not Gulen and CIA. The "CIA" is US National elites that want to maintain global policeman status. Gulen is a globalist project for the Islamisation of Turkey. So is Erdogan. Gulen is Erdogan's personal issue over who gets to rule.
DeleteYou guys should find this interesting.
DeletePutin, Erdogan Mend Ties as Post-Coup Turkey Turns to Russia Breaking News at Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/putin-erdogan-turkey-russia/2016/07/26/id/740613/#ixzz4FZ4ThDkk
Get this. Erdogan will be launching an investigation into the shoot-down of the Russian Su-24 bomber. Next I expect that it was the American elites element (which it was) at play, and that Erdogan was lied to. Incidentally, the Syrian army and allies are in all-out blitzkrieg at the moment in Allepo. I watched some recent videos of street fights going on there. The soldiers are brimming with confidence and storming building after building. The footage is reminiscent of street-fights in Russian cities in 1944, when the Soviet red army soldiers were moving with speed in from building to building decimating the exhausted and malnourished Germans.
Deletedear Arevordi and readers of TROR BlogSpot, I kindly ask anyone who is on FB to please check out the following video I made earlier today concerning Syria, and if not a member, then still check out the short 5 minute clip and enjoy the bitter sweet music and images/info. The prior video is the Russian military drills in Armenia. It is extremely difficult to get the ball rolling against the tides of classless ankap junk and disinformation on this platform (social media) Thank you and God bless <3
ReplyDeletehttps://www.facebook.com/ArmenianGenocide101/videos/vb.696392357168992/761146060693621/?type=2&theater
Arevordi, are you able to give me the link with davit sanasryan and sakasvilli together? Link to the pic. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe article -
DeleteGuess Who's Funding Anti-Russian Protests in Armenia?: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article44541.htm
Link to the picture -
https://www.facebook.com/1510389002564426/photos/pb.1510389002564426.-2207520000.1469624778./1595345407402118/?type=3&theater
PS: I have more respect for the armed militants who are occupying the police compound than a disgusting scumbag like Sanasaryan.
3 fort russ articles published today concerning Armenia:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/armenian-maidan-color-revolution-surges.html
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/what-do-citizens-of-armenia-think-of.html
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/armenian-protesters-demanding_26.html
' The Number 1 problem with Armenians is not corrupt governments or police brutality or anything like that. Our number 1 problem is the loss of accepting personal responsibility for the condition our world is in. Through comfort living we have let ourselves become spiritually poisoned and turned into mindless spectators who like to do nothing but point fingers and blame others. Far too many of our people have become corrupt by being weak self indulgent hedonists and we wonder why our government is the same. It is the same because it is a reflection of us. We must stop being spectators and stop pointing fingers. We must start being participants in the historical process. If we really want a change we must be fanatically determined to WORK for that change. Only by first changing ourselves will we be able to change our governments and the world. As a wise man once said, be the change you wish to see in the world. This is an inconvenient truth we must accept because real change starts from us. This is the attitude we must adopt if we want to leave a better world for our descendants. My fellow Armenians, starting now, make the pledge to start accepting personal responsibility and blame NO ONE but yourself for the condition Armenia is in. ' - Hayk Nazaryan
I agree with Hayk Nazaryan. Armenia is the way it is because of the nature and character of the Armenian that inhabits it. A nation's government is an accurate reflection of the nation's people. Sadly, not enough people understand this. Before we are able to build an Armenia we will need to build ourselves. Sadly, our pride, arrogance, materialism, jealousy, emotions, etc. will get in the way of self improvement. I really don't see a future for an "independent" Armenia. Due to the nature of both the south Caucasus and the Armenian, Armenia will need to be part of a larger political system to properly develop. Anyway, the following is another well written article about personal responsibility -
DeleteI Am An Accomplice: http://asbarez.com/153262/i-am-an-accomplice/
I am not liking the growing momentum of the Yerevan protests. Time is not on the side of the government. It is on the side of the opposition. The longer it takes, the more people are going out on the streets. And now Gyumri folk have joined in:
ReplyDeleteԳյումրիում իրարանցում է, քաղաքը ոտքի է կանգնել
http://hraparak.am/?p=118752&l=am%2Fgyumrium+irarancum+e+qaxaqyvotqi+e+kangnel+
Opposition media is not wasting its time. Civilnet is livestreaming the events 24/7. All opposition forces, without exception, are in support of the armed group in one way or the other.
If this goes on, I fear more and more destabilization...
This drama is unfolding like a game between cops and robbers. What is bemusing is that crowds gather in public avenues in support of these despicable vandals. Ten point stars to the authorities for their unenviable patience before a band of mere terrorists. The end is approaching and it might, it might, require an assault by the special police units which will lead to bloodshed. As for Sefilian, well he is not part of it, he can not ask the terrorists to lay down and surrender since that would be an admission of his own involvement. These amateur terror bandits might have acted on their own accord. The whole thing is putrid.As for Sefilian, it would be better to send him into exile, it does not serve any purpose to keep behind bars in Yerevan. The man has become a magnet, or a glue for discontented factions, who are taking advantage of the dismal situation to hurl their own particular grievances onto the main stream.
DeleteJirayr Sefilian is an accomplice. He has been talking about carrying out these kinds of operations many years. He has also been apprehended a couple of times for planning these kinds of operations. Armenia's weak and corrupt authorities got the situation to this point. Founding Parliament types group should not have been tolerated in the country. But because the country is not being properly run and because Armenian officials want to continue kissing Western asses for loans and grants, Western funded subversive groups such as Founding Parliament are allowed to exist in the country. Now, they are paying the price for their greed and stupidity. Armenian officials made another great mistake. The occupied police compound should have been assaulted and retaken on the very fist day without regard to casualties. Had they done so the situation would not have gotten this bad. Now they have thousands of sheeple in the streets being led by Western funded activists and they still have to assault the compound at some point. It's a very volatile situation and President Sargsyan's government has to be blamed for it. Sadly, Armenia is stuck between corrupt and incompetent officials and Western-led emotionally distraught and politically illiterate citizens.
DeleteI have to agree with the analysis. The longer they wait to invest the compound and remove the bandits therein , a higher price is likely to be exacted. I find it hard to understand that this seditious group of Founding parliament has such a following in the country. On the commentary of Dugin on Armenia; it reinforces the concept that Russia will not let go of Armenia, which it is a very good thing, considering that Armenians left to their own devices are ever likely to auto-destruct.
DeleteOur authorities realized they screwed up by not taking care of the crisis right away. To remedy it I think devised a clever plan. If you noticed, during the last few days they are slowly, gradually taking out the militants one-by-one by shooting them in the legs. They are slowly taking them out of circulation without killing them so as not to inflame public sentiment.
DeleteWhich brings me to the Armenian public. Armenians have serious emotional and psychological problem even during the best of time. 25-plus years of severe socioeconomic and sociopolitical problems associated with the republic's post-Soviet growing pains, coupled with the Western led campaign to demonify the "pro-Russian regime" has cause serious and deep rooted problems within the people's psyche. The Armenian street today hates their leadership and law enforcement bodies more than they hate Azeris or Turks. The majority of the protestors you see in the streets are in fact very apolitical. They could careless about politics or even Artsakh. They are out primarily because of socioeconomic reasons, and they see the militants as a way of punishing their much hated "regime".
As to Russia, there never was any doubt about them unconditionally protecting Armenia from all regional predators. For Moscow, Armenia is a strategic fortress that acts against the encroachment of Turks, Iranians and Islamist into the south Caucasus. The fundamental problem with Russia is their desire to bring Azerbaijan fully into their orbit. This is why for the past two/three years I have been saying that the territories outside of Artsakh proper will be a problem for Russian officials. I see Moscow eventually supporting Artsakh's independence, but I also see Moscow putting a lot of pressure on Yerevan to return some of the territories outside Artsakh. This matter will made made worst because our people didn't put any effort in building an Armenian lobby in Moscow during the past 25 years - whereas as Azeris and Turks did. Now, especially in the light of unprecedented warming of relations between Moscow and Ankara, all the pressure will be placed on official Yerevan.
But once more I would like to say that the problem here is not between Russia and Armenia or even between Russia and Artsakh - but between Russia and the territories outside of Artsakh proper.
PS: I am also willing to entertain the idea/thought that Armenian officials may have allowed the situation in Yerevan to get this bad (although confined) to put pressure on Moscow. The Erebuni police compound incident and the resulting protests throughout the city can and will be used to Artsakh's advantage during negotiations.
Law enforcement bodies are finally getting their act together.
DeleteThree more armed extremists were "surgically" taken out of action -
ՊՊԾ գնդից երկու վիրավոր տեղափոխվեցին «Էրեբունի» բժշկական կենտրոն: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iJTEUvReGw
Riots police is finally coming into proper form -
Ոստիկանական պատը Խորենացի փողոցում պատրաստ է: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YhnD-5aykI
Disgusting hooligans of Sari Tagh slum were finally taught a lesson -
Բախում Սարի թաղում. ճայթուկներ, վիրավորներ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsm6t_Q0D18
The people are right. Serzh is a corrupt imbecile......so are all of he ruling party. The saddest part is.............we actually don't have anything better at the moment that can run the country..........not that serzh is running it properly....the opposition have no idea. no plan. no nothing.............wouldn't even call them an opposition. Now............these sasna crer........instead of taking a police HQ over....why not take out 2-3 high ranking ruling party members.........maybe at that time serzh will realize he will be next...and he can start changes....given these 30 member team didn't care about dieing/living/jail. Could be more creative :)
DeleteSasna Tsrer's actions are purely geopolitical in nature. They are Western funded. They therefore serve Western interests. They are tasked with fomenting a Ukraine-style uprising and driving a wedge between Armenia and Russia. This is ultimately why they did what they did and not go after individuals known to be involved in corruption.
DeleteI am actually surprised that the front line hasn't flared up in recent days. Because in 2008 there were clashes in Martakert during the State of Emergency. I wonder what our neighboring countries are making of what is going on in Armenia at the moment. I mainly agree with you that Armenia is poorly governed. Sargasyan doesn't have the political will and the courage to fight corruption and injustice. In a way Armenia needs a benevolent strongman. However Sasna Tsrer is probably not the answer. We can't blame Russia for corruption as Western integration won't get the Armenian government to govern properly as you stated in one of you'd previous articles comparing Armenia to Bulgaria. The solutions must come from us.
DeleteSo they demand the resignation of the current president and the release of a prisoner who wants the overthrow of the regime. The methods of reaching these goals are: hijacking a police department, kill a police officer and taking hostages. The used methodology confirms that these perpretrators are lunatics and that there is something wrong with them.
DeleteWe all know that if things of these natures had happened in western countries, they would be labeled as terrorist and immediately neutralized. Our government showed mercy and as of now, thousands of countrymen/women are walking in the streets and behaving like animals.
It is worrying that thousands of Armenians and the opposition are supporting a group of terrorists. Terrorists who are destabelizing Armenia. I am asking myself: why are these people supporting these terrorists? These people must be facing harsh problems within the Armenian society. They have no jobs and there is corruption. Tackling these problems are the responsibilty of the government. They are cleary not doing a good job, because the folk hate the government over these issues.
Im not stating that another regime would do a better job, but the curent regime should do something with these problems. If they cant solve it, because its beyond their powers, then they should convince the folk that they are doing their best. The country i live in, also takes decisions that does not satisfact the folk. But they proceed, because they communicate with the folk.
If the people want a new regime, fine. They can go to the ballot box.
Arevordi,
DeleteHow do you know that Sasna Tsrer are western funded?
Mardik,
DeleteDon't stop with Bulgaria. If you want to see how Armenia would have fared within the Western orbit also look at Greece, Albania, Romania, Bosnia, Ukraine, Georgia, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Columbia, Philippians, etc. Moreover, because of its location and size, an Armenia in the Western orbit would immediately/automatically become subordinate to Turkey. Don't ever forget that. That said, thinking about an Armenia in the Western orbit is a moot point because Russians would sooner destroy the country rather than give it up to Western powers. At the very least, we will lose all of Artsakh in a major, bloody war that would also be very devastating for Armenia. Armenians can't survive on their own in the south Caucasus. Armenia can't allow the dispute over Artsakh continue indefinitely either. As long as the geopolitical status quo continues in the region, Armenia will continue decaying. The south Caucasus will once again need the peace and stability it has had under Russian rule during the past 200 years if we want to see a stable prosperous Armenia. What's more, let's sober up and realize that Armenia may never truly be "independent". If you study our history closely you will see that during the past 2500-plus years Armenia has been completely "independent" only for 30 years (under Tigran's short lived reign). At all other times Armenia was either a subjugated nation or a nation deeply entrenched in one political orbit or another. Armenia is located in a very-very difficult political environment and we as a people simply don't have it in us to build an independent nation. I am convinced there is a self-destruction button somewhere within our DNA. I am also convinced that an Armenian is at his or her best when he or she is living in a political/economic system put in place by other people.
Armenia,
DeleteIf you are going to ask me if I have seen a CIA check made out to them, the answer obviously is no. But remember the American saying: If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, it's most probably a duck. Also remember the Armenian saying: Show me who your friends are and I will tell you who you are.
Founding Parliament (which was known as Pre-Parliament before they changed their name when people like myself began pointing out that it was a Bolshevik name) are made up of a few dozen dedicated people and they clearly have some kind of funding for their daily operations. Moreover, they closely collaborate with the nation's Western-funded officials, activists, NGOs and propaganda outlets like Radio Liberty, Lragir, Policy Forum Armenia, Civilnet, etc. Also, one of their senior members is an American-Armenian with very close ties with Paruyr Hayrikian. I don't need to tell you about Paruyr Hayrikian. Also, Igor Muradyan was very involved with Founding Parliament until very recently. Igor Muradyan is cut from the same exact cloth as CFR agent Gary Kasparov. Also, Founding Parliament has been constantly calling for the expulsion of Russian troops from Armenia and has been doing all it can to foment a regime change. Their practices are very similar to those we see in places like Ukraine. Also, Founding Parliament has former ASALA members in their ranks. Today's ASALA is a Europe (most probably France) based operation. Not many people know that through an organization called "Western Armenia government" today's ASALA is trying to establish a "Western Armenia" on Syrian territory in collaboration with regional Kurds. They were very hopeful about the project back in 2013 when Syria was on the verge of total collapse. I don't know where their project stands currently.
Anyway, there is more than enough circumstantial evidence to prove that Founding Parliament activists are at the very least - foreign funded fanatics tasked with fomenting a color revolution in Armenia and driving a political wedge between Moscow and Yerevan. I am sure that all of their members have convinced themselves that they are trying to save Armenia... just like Western funded Ukrainians and Libyans who destroyed their homeland were totally convinced at first that they were doing the right thing by violently turning against their government.
I know one thing for sure: If the political agenda of groups like Founding parliament (as well as Raffi Hovannisian's and Paruyr Hayrikian's political parties) ever becomes reality in Armenia, we can all kiss the country's ass goodbye.
The political air in the country is vitiated and toxic . The seemingly impotence of the authorities is an extrapolation of the inept and awkward handling of the April flare up in artsakh. The head of government is being chastised for all the administration ills. The most egregious item in the agenda is that of corruption. Corruption is not an national trademark, corruption is pandemic, corruption it's a contemporary way of life, it is everywhere, the difference its in the varying degrees of experiencing it. It is a waste of time what is going on in the police compound. In the same manner the authorities handled the April crisis, with naive incredulity and amateurish incompetence, they are deploying the identical pusillanimous approach in dealing with brigands, outlaws and murderers. The gang men killed a policeman in their terrorist assault of the compound. Their fate is already doomed. They have nothing to lose. Their only hope is in the gambit of prolonging the siege and thus, incomprehensible, garner the masses sympathy and support. As for color revolutions, this is not the case. This is a terrorist attack by trigger happy outlaws. The government may be incompetent, weak, and corruption ridden, but the opposition, if one could call them that, is in no shape and form whatsoever to take over the mantle of government. The parukyans, raffis and other melange of treacherous , misguided , bastards would not know what to do next if the baton of governments falls in their hands. The artsakh conflict can never be resolved at the round table. It will be resolved by a one decisive victory of the conflicting sides. The talks and peace indabas are an eyewash. The differences between the conflicting sides are irreconcilable, a disgraceful legacy of the Bolsheviks. Russia has no problem with the status quo. It keeps the azeries dissatisfied and the Armenians quiet. They say demographics is destiny. What has the government done in the last decades to populate Artsakh and the outlying regions. Absolutely zero. It is impossible to populate an area if the nation is suffering from an emigration fever. The Turks don't have this problem. Any so called peace agreement with compromises would be the bell toll of doom for artsakh. The Turks would have the right to travel freely and would change the demographic of Artsakh in the space of ten years. Artsakh needs to enlarge the cordon sanitaire, not to cede land on the hope of utopian dreams of a peace accord. There is a western Armenia government in exile. With a formal hierarchy of president, vice, foreign minister etc. their approach is purely legalistic within the framework of international law as dictated by the UN. They are making the claims based on treaties, Sevres, at the end of WW1. It is a good development, it is another voice being heard. The question is why there is no convergence of aims and policies, even at a hypothetical level with the government. They are even offering citizenship of western Armenia. Their only chance is banking on the dissolution of turkey as a nation state, and see what spoils can be picked up to validate the claims. In the realm of dreams, even if the opportunity were to be presented to instaurate the Western Armenian territories, as demarcated by the treaty of Sevres , the demographic demon would raise its ugly head, unless a way is found to ship 6 m from the diaspora, an unlikely prospect.
DeleteArevordi,
DeleteRegarding Nagorno-Karabakh (Artaskh) if there is to be a peace treaty not a shaky ceasefire, Russia is probably going to take the status of Nagorno-Karabakh back to what is was in the Soviet era where we had autonomy but within Azerbaijan. Because lets be realistic no country would recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenia or as an independent country. However Azerbaijan also needs to compromise (politically) because as you said a military confrontation would be very bloody as we saw in April when 88 Armenian soldiers and 93 Azerbaijani soldiers died in 4 days, which makes a military solution way too costly. So Russia will likely force Armenia and Azerbaijan into difficult compromises in order to avoid a long bloody Bosnia-style war in the South Caucasus. Regarding Armenia not being able to build an independent country, we live in the 21st century when every country is dependent on the other economically, socially, politically. Objectively when countries are integrated there is less chance of war that is the whole idea behind the EU. So one can argue no country is "independent" honestly not even the US, Russia or China.
Mardig,
DeleteI agree with everything you said except one thing: Artsakh will NEVER go back to its former status as an autonomous region within Azerbaijan. I believe Russians and Azeris understand this. The geopolitical mess we are currently in (i.e. the shattering of status quo that served us well) started with Kosovo in early 2008. The Western imperial agenda revealed in Kosovo started a chain of events that has gotten us to the current situation. In the light of a new geopolitical landscape slowly coming into shape, not the least of which is the rise of Russia in the Middle East and the unprecedented warming of relations between Russia and Turkey, we need to figure out how to derive the best possible outcome for Artsakh. In my opinion, Artsakh proper, plus Berdzor and Karvachar, have to have some form of independence. If ceding of the remaining five territories will give us a true, internationally guaranteed peace treaty then I am willing to consider it. I reiterate: What we give up and how much of it we give up is ultimately up to the capabilities of our diplomatic corps and the quality of our relationship with the Bear.
The choban coup has ended.
Delete«Սասնա ծռերը» հանձնվում են. ոստիկանության տեսանյութը: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf7kidwe_Sg&spfreload=5
At the end of the day, all this may prove to be a blessing in disguise. Everyone - including Armenian officials, Russians, Americans and Azeris - have now gotten a little taste of what can happen if official Yerevan is even perceived as being too giving in terms of land concessions. I believe (I hope) this crisis will give Armenian diplomats an upper hand during negotiations. I also believe (I hope) that this crisis will lead to better governance in the country. As the great German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once said: That which does not kill us makes us stronger.
PS: Bravo Armenia. Bravo NSS. Had this ordeal taken place in any Western nation, specially the US, it would have been an absolute bloodbath.
Even though these protests managed to show that the idea of territorial concessions is unpopular in Armenian society which flies completely in the face of what Vahan Martirosyan said in his interview with Azeri media outlets. However I dont see how this will give Armenia any leverage diplomatically. I agree that these protests should motivate the Armenian government to govern the country more effectively because the country faces difficult issues some domestic some geopolitic . If the Armenian government manages to mitigate or tackle some of the problems only then the situation in Armenia will stabilize. What I mean by "stabilize" is that there would be fewer protests and acts of desperation because that's what the capture of the police HQ was. So the government has a lot of work to do.
DeleteI was doing some debates in Facebook. In a diasporan group called I am a descendant of a survivor of the armenia genocide. Its in english and have a majority from US and many from Yerevan. We are a minority and Have suffered a lot of attacks from some trully angry bacause of economic problems and others think are trolls western backed. But behalf of this I got some good support for some folks using your thoughts in my words or citing you literally. So there is a hope the people can see that a color revolution its not the solution but where is the solution? I dont know. Some people told me Georgia has a good economic development like a good example of being in the western orbit and I couldnt refute it. Can you help me with some data? Thanks. About genetics here in Latin America we are being mixed with people from Spain Italy. I think this is a good prospect if we achieve to mantain roots with Armenia un some how. Overall with the spanish conquerors blood from the middle ages conquest we are getting some good DNA and also from indigenous people from America who were defeated but had a warrior class and mixed with spanish men arriving without women. Our first generations didnt mixed and now thats changing the problem is about the taking consciousness of the armenian belonging and I can tell you I see an awakening in the Diaspora Im optimistic.
DeleteBoch@,
DeleteGeorgia is a very popular tourist destination because of its beautiful seacoast and green/forested countryside. Moreover, for more than ten years, many billions of dollars have been spent on the country from places like Azerbaijan, Turkey, Israel, EU, USA, Britain, Saudi Arabia, etc. However, despite the billions of dollars, despite the millions of tourists, despite the beautiful seacoast and countryside, the typical Georgian today still lives no better than the typical Armenian. Moreover, Georgia also has a serious emigration problem. Moreover, because of Georgia's Sakashvilian policies, there are large numbers of Turks, Azeris, Caucasian Muslims and Jews in the country. In fact, many of the major businesses in Georgia today are owned by Turks. Do we Armenians want that? Because of Georgia's Saakashvilian politics, Georgia also lost 20% of its territory to Russia. Do we Armenians want something similar to that happening with Artsakh? If we Armenians repeat Georgia's mistake we will not only lose the "five territories", we will lose all of Artsakh and Armenia will be utterly devastated. Also, the Georgian model will by default make Armenia dependent on Turkey. In short: Armenians who are enthralled by Georgia tend to be very primitive people who are easily dazzled by bright lights.
Mardig,
The recent crisis will very definitely give Armenian officials an advantage during negotiations. Also, I am gradually beginning to side with the notion that Armenian officials knew about the assault on the police compound before hand and did not to stop it or simply allowed the crisis to get to a critical point - purely for political purposes. Throughout the crisis official Yerevan seemed very complacent with the situation and also very lenient towards the armed group. I cannot fully attribute this complacency or leniency to incompetence or fear. I am beginning to think there they may have been some degree of collusion/collaboration between the two sides. The fundamental interests of both sides - Armenian officials and the armed group - coincided somewhat. I am not yet ready to call what happened in Yerevan recently an elaborate show put on by Armenian officials and the leader of the "Sasna Tsrer" militant group, but there definitely seems more now to the story than meets the eye...
Armenians should consider holidaying somewhere else. Why spent our currency there ?. Georgia is a practical israeli outpost, with nefarious turkish presence. Georgia is a failed country .Sounds and feels more like a county in Turkey. God forbid that Armenia falls into the same kind of existence. During the Shaskavilli furor in August 2008, the georgian leadership was manned and directed by Israeli-Georgians. These leaders and advisers profited mightily, while the poor Georgian people suffered an ignominious disgrace. Fortunately the brigand's assault on the police compound has ended, with the fatality of on police officer; one fatality of armenian upon armenian is one fatality too many. There is a lot of gossip on concessions from Armenia's side, sheer speculation, rumor mongering to sow distrust, confusion and division. No one gossips about Azerie concessions. Because there are none. Lavrov's statements on the closeness of an agreement on Karabagh between the two parties were very strange; if not a bit over the top. Such euphoria is uncharacteristic of Lavrov. Maybe it was a joke. It is difficult to reconcile his statements ( although he has gone very silent since) with actual reality. There are not enough concessions to satisfy the opposing side to force a compromise, short of relinquishing Karabagh. The Russians know full well that the status of Karabagh is not negotiable. As for the 5 regions, if anything the cordon sanitaire needs to be expanded, not shrank through dangerous cessions of land, in the pursuit of an illusory peace. Keep a strong army, always alert, ready to counterpunch and repel the aggressor, and let talks continue for as long as necessary.
DeleteԵլքը ո՞րն է. Վազգեն Մանուկյան
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ankakh.com/article/46634/%E2%80%8Byelqe-vo%D5%9Ern-e--vazgyen-manukyan
Սերժ Սարգսյան. առաջին հերթին շնորհակալություն եմ հայտնում իրավապահ մարմինների ներկայացուցիչներին: http://sputnik.co.am/armenia/20160801/4557211.html
ReplyDeleteՍերժ Սարգսյան․ «Եկել է եզրակացություններ կատարելու ժամանակը»: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FueK2voXVpM
It looks that the hope to turn Armenia into a Maidan has been comprehensibly dashed, judging by articles like that (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/04/after-armenia-crackdown-can-kanye-west-and-kim-kardashian-save-this-democracy.html):
ReplyDelete"DO CRY FOR ME ARMENIA"
'After Armenia Crackdown, Can Kanye West and Kim Kardashian Save This Democracy. As the country’s president tries to walk a line between pleasing the West and pleasing Putin, he cracks down on his people', by Anna Nemtsova.
YEREVAN, Armenia — It is perhaps a measure of his desperation that Sayat Harutunyan, still in a hospital bed here days after police beat him to a pulp and he lost an eye, asked us to plead with Kim Kardashian, the world’s most famous Armenian, and her husband Kanye West to try do to something, anything, that might help the fight for democracy here.
What the celebrities could accomplish is not clear at all. But what’s obvious is that calls for greater freedom and an incipient uprising have been met on the streets with ferocious violence by a regime close to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin—and also with the West...Harutunyan and his family want millions of people in the United States and Europe —“whoever cared”— to know about his trouble and the trouble in this country...
The scale of Armenia’s bad news was shocking both to local and international observers...etc.
or from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/armine-sahakyan/its-time-for-armenias-lea_b_11328298.html:
"It’s Time for Armenia’s Leader to Go"
'Underscoring the widespread feeling that Sargsyan’s victory over the station occupiers was Pyrrhic was the news that Russian President Vladimir Putin has summoned him to Moscow for talks on August 10.
The last time that happened, in the fall of 2013, Putin ordered Sargsyan to drop Armenia’s plan to join the European Union — or else — and join the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union instead.
That turn-about led to anti-government demonstrations from many of the Armenians who thought their country would be better off casting its fate with Europe instead of its old subjugator Russia.
So the meeting on August 10 with Putin must be filling Sargsyan with dread.
My guess is that Putin, who despises the color revolutions that sparked regime changes in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, will tell Sargysan that while he supports him remaining in office, Sargsyan needs to be ruthless in putting down the next challenge to his authority...etc'.
Who is asking the question if a negro can save Armenian democracy? If it is a joke it is in very poor taste. There is much antiarmenianess in the western yellow press that is nauseating. All it does is spread lies, and more lies. A group of bandits, killing a policemen and assaulting a station it's turned into a rebellious revolt to save democracy. With mobs gathering in the streets in the sultry evenings and hot days of Yerevan the lying yellow press beats up the drum of a maidan revolution. The last thing in the minds of the amateur gangsters was having anything to do with democracy. They had, and still have ,an agenda to replace the government. It is , sadly, admittedly a dispute between mafia groups. If anything the aftermath of this " maidan" is to be a lesson to the authorities that the time has come to displace western oriented, disguised as pseudo nationalists, groupings and political from the country. Allowing these " western maidaners" free rein is equivalent of nursing fifth columnists in the heart of political and social life in the country. In the meantime, whilst the country fiddles with these inane distractions, the karabagh situation continues under its own dynamics. Farrago of lies and speculation fuel the pages of the lying press and wavelengths. Putin is in Baku. The Baku media represents the worst of the political players and clans operating in that country. The Baku gangsters, and their mouthpieces are singing a completely different song , devoid of the realities of the situation. The story line that karabagh is an inseparable part of integral Azerbaijan, and it will revert back sooner or later is the staple diet fed to the Azeri herd of masticating bisons. The emphasis in the surrealism of Azeries narrative is when karabagh will revert back to Azeries. There is nothing to negotiate , or compromise , in the Azerie political language other than reinstating pre 1994 borders. Also there is a mongering of hatred resonating in Azerbaijans information services. We have a totally contrarian premise from which our organs of communication are operating. Our story line is about negotiations, compromise, cession of territories. Who is better prepared to raise to the challenge of the situation.
DeleteAre you guys tracking developments arround Allepo?
ReplyDeleteA major global battle is unfolding there. Make no mistake about it, this thrust is a major Anglo-American effort at securing some sort concessions/partitions from Russia. All the shadows are coming out of the woodwork .
Allepo has become the conflict's epicenter and the war's most strategic prize. Both sides will fight to the end to win it. On a related note, the Hezbollah drone that entered several kilometers into Israel and could not be shot down by Israeli air defenses was actually a Russian drone -
DeleteRussian drone entered Israeli territory but IDF could not shoot down UAV: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russian-drone-entered-israeli-territory-idf-could-not-shoot-down-uav-1574745
Yeah I saw that article. Definitely in line with your posted subject. If Russia can make NATO systems miss, well that's an interesting dynamic for nato to think about. Russia over the last couple of years has been deconstructing the myth of west's military invincibility.
DeleteIt's hard to make out what's going on arround Allepo, but the terrorists are throwing everything at at a narrow point. Their attrition has been described as utter "carnage". I read a report that Russians are not flying helicopters due to intelligence that the terrorists received a large number of manpads for the offensive, so that's hampering closer air support. However, jets are dive bombing, commanders on cellphones are being wiped out. I am wondering about the manpower balance too. Just what kind of balance is there between the jihadists and sAa and allies? The jihadists seem to have a lot more in the theater. I got to think that if the sAa holds ground after the dust settles, they can go on a relentless offensive. They are under a lot of pressure in Allepo, but quietly advanced in Damascus and Latakia in the meantime.
Also, well need to monitor developing relations between Ankara and Moscow and Ankara and Tehran.
What going on between Moscow and Ankara - as well as what has been going on between Moscow and Tehran - is unprecedented. So, we will need to watch developing relations between all three, Moscow, Tehran and Ankara. But, like I said previously, the process of taking Turkey out of the Western orbit will most probably destroy the nation. So, more power to Erdoghan. Anyway, here are two very interesting article -
DeleteVladimir Putin wants to 'twist Turkey coup to spark conflict' between Erdogan and West: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/697321/Putin-Turkey-coup-Russia-West-tensions-EU
Putin encourages Iran to join Russia-led Eurasian alliance: https://www.rt.com/politics/354743-putin-voices-support-to-iran/
What is going in Alepo is the application of the infamous plan B of horse face Kerry, to deal with the Syrian scenario. Kerry warned if negotiations did produce no resultas, they would implement plan B. On a peripheral side, Putins prophetic warning to erdogan that Aleppo would become turkeys Stalingrad is also happening. According to reports, the jihadists are totally surrounded in the rubble of the city. Their lines of provisioning and conduits in and out of the city shut down by the SAA. This means they face annihilation by starvation, or attrition. Their only hope to carry on with the fight is to be supplied by air. It does not seem that neither the Turks nor the Israelis dogs of war are contemplating doing so. We should be pleased that the Israel's juggernaut appears to be stopped and soon to be checkmated. This brutal war has left us with a number of snippets of a prophetic nature. Soon after the Libyan destruction, the so called Arab Spring was at it zenith. In the Syrian parliament president Assad , in one of his speeches in 2011, declared that the Arab Spring stops here and now. The Israelis analysts were all in unison that Assads days were numbered, the Cameron's, the Obamas, the sarkozies, the clintons, the Erdogans (one of Erdogans officials went as far as proposing to recognize the Islamists caliphate as an independent nation and admitted to the UN) were all singing the rotten rap of " Assad must go, or Assad will go" . 5 years later, many of those voice have left the stage and themselves gone, and others are eating their words or become redundant, and Assad is not gone . This war is not yet over, but the Israelis dogs of war seem to have their grandiose plans for carving up Syria and expand themselves at its expense thwarted. Very interesting Putins comments in Baku about the peace prospects for Armenia and the criminal state of bakustan. "A balance needs to be found between terrirorial integrity and the auto determination of people's". The two premises are contradictory with each other, they negate and cancel each other. One has to wait and see if these diplomatic trapeze artists can conjure up a "balance".
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